Po p u l a t i o n Tr en d s 130
Wi n t e r 2007
The Changing
Demographic Picture
of the UK
National Statistician’s
Annual Article on the
Population
Karen Dunnell
National Statistician
The population of the UK is currently growing at
its fastest rate since the 1960s, increasing by two
and a half per cent between mid-2001 and mid2006. While life expectancy continues to increase,
fertility rates have also been increasing in the
last five years and are currently at their highest
level since 1980. In addition, international
migration has led to the UK population growing
by an average of 500 people per day over the
last five years. The population is also becoming
increasingly diverse and mobile, and these factors
make it increasingly challenging to measure
population change accurately.
This is the first of a series of annual reports on
the population of the UK; these reports will
provide an overview of the latest statistics on the
population and will also focus on one specific
topic - for this report the topic is fertility and, in
particular, the impact of migration on fertility,
but different topics will be covered in future
years. The reports will also highlight the key
strands of work being taken forward within the
National Statistics Centre for Demography in
order to improve UK population statistics. More
detailed information on the populations of Wales,
Scotland and Northern Ireland are available in
the annual demographic reports produced by the
respective devolved administrations.1
Overview of the Current Population of the UK
In 2006, the population of the UK stood at almost 60.6 million2. This
was a 7.5 per cent increase from 56.4 million in 1981, and a 2.5 per
cent increase from 59.1 million over the last five years alone (Table 1).
Between 1981 and 2006, the populations of England, Wales and Northern
Ireland increased by 8 per cent, 5 per cent and 13 per cent respectively,
while the population of Scotland declined by 1 per cent. However, over
the past five years, all four countries have experienced population growth.
The UK population grew by almost one and a half million
between mid-2001 and mid-2006, and at the fastest rate of
growth since the 1960s
Within England between 1981 and 2006, the populations of the East,
East Midlands, South East, South West and London all increased by at
least 10 per cent. In contrast, the populations of the North East and North
West declined by 3 per cent and 1 per cent respectively. However, over
the last five years, all Government Office Regions within England have
experienced population growth, the most rapid growth being in the East
and East Midlands.
Of the twenty-one local government areas with the largest population
growth (8 per cent or more) between 2001 and 2006, twelve were in the
East or East Midlands, four were in London and the South East, and
three were in Northern Ireland. Of the fifty-one areas whose population
declined between 2001 and 2006, fourteen were in Scotland, twelve were
in the North of England, and eleven were in London and the South East
(Figure 1). Although Northern Ireland has seen the largest population
growth of the four UK countries over the past five years (3.1 per cent),
9
N a t i o n a l St a t i s t i cs
Po p u lat io n Tr e n ds 1 3 0
Table 1
Win te r 2 0 07
Population estimates, mid-1981 to mid-2006 – UK, constituent countries and English Government Office Regions
millions
Percentage Increase
mid-1981
mid-1986
mid-1991
mid-1996
mid-2001
mid-2006
UK
56.4
56.7
57.4
58.2
59.1
60.6
England
1981-2006
2001-2006
7.5
2.5
46.8
47.2
47.9
48.5
49.4
50.8
8.4
2.7
North East
2.6
2.6
2.6
2.6
2.5
2.6
-3.1
0.6
North West
6.9
6.8
6.8
6.8
6.8
6.9
-1.3
1.2
Yorkshire & The Humber
4.9
4.9
4.9
5.0
5.0
5.1
4.6
3.3
East Midlands
3.9
3.9
4.0
4.1
4.2
4.4
13.3
4.2
West Midlands
5.2
5.2
5.2
5.3
5.3
5.4
3.5
1.6
East
4.9
5.0
5.1
5.2
5.4
5.6
15.5
3.8
London
6.8
6.8
6.8
7.0
7.3
7.5
10.4
2.6
South East
7.2
7.5
7.6
7.8
8.0
8.2
13.7
2.7
South West
4.4
4.5
4.7
4.8
4.9
5.1
16.9
3.7
Wales
2.8
2.8
2.9
2.9
2.9
3.0
5.4
1.9
Scotland
5.2
5.1
5.1
5.1
5.1
5.1
-1.2
1.0
Northern Ireland
1.5
1.6
1.6
1.7
1.7
1.7
12.9
3.1
Source: Mid-year population estimates, 1981 to 2006, Office for National Statistics, General Register Office for Scotland, Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency
Belfast has seen a 3.5 per cent decline in its population over the same
period, the largest of any local government area in the UK.
Between 2001 and 2006, Northern Ireland saw the greatest
population growth of the four UK countries, but the
population of Belfast declined more than any other local
government area within the UK.
Population growth or decline is based on births, deaths and net migration.
However, an area that is not experiencing large levels of population growth
or decline may still be experiencing a large volume of migration moves
when migration into and out of the area are considered together. Population
turnover is measured as the number of moves into an area from elsewhere
in the UK or overseas plus the number of moves out of an area to elsewhere
in the UK or overseas per 100 population. Of the 22 local government areas
in England, Wales and Northern Ireland that had the highest annual volume
of overall migration between mid-2001 and mid-2006 (18 moves or more
per 100 population), all were London boroughs except Cambridge, Oxford
and Reading (Figure 2). Half of these areas of highest population turnover
experienced either slower population growth than the UK average (2.7 per
cent) or population decline (Table 2). This was due to moves into these
areas being offset by moves out of the same area, hence resulting in little
actual population change. For example, between 2001 and 2006, Lambeth
had the tenth highest annual volume of migration in England and Wales but
actually experienced slight population decline over this period.
Mid-year population estimates only take into account international
migration that is ‘long-term’, namely the migration of people who
are coming to or leaving the UK for one year or more (see Box One).
Table 2
Local government areas in England, Wales and
Northern Ireland with highest population turnover,
comparison with population change, 2001–06
Average Volume of Migration
(moves per 100 population)
Population Change
(per cent)
Cambridge
28
City of London
28
7.3
5.4
Westminster
26
14.1
Oxford
26
10.0
Camden
24
12.3
Wandsworth
24
2.7
Hammersmith and Fulham
24
1.2
Isles of Scilly
24
0.0
Islington
23
3.4
Lambeth
22
–0.5
Kensington and Chelsea
22
9.7
Haringey
21
2.0
Southwark
20
4.9
Reading
19
–1.3
Tower Hamlets
19
5.8
Merton
19
3.5
Richmond upon Thames
19
3.0
Newham
19
–0.4
Ealing
19
–0.3
Brent
18
0.7
Hackney
18
0.6
Hounslow
18
1.2
Source: Mid-year population estimates, Office for National Statistics, Northern Ireland
Statistics and Research Agency
Box one
Definitions of long-term and short-term migration
The United Nations recommended definition of a long-term
international migrant is a person who moves to a country other
than that of his or her usual residence for a period of at least a year
(12 months), so that the country of destination effectively becomes
his or her new country of usual residence. From the perspective of the
country of departure the person will be a long-term emigrant and from
that of the country of arrival the person will be a long-term immigrant.
This 12 month migrant definition is used for the UK usually resident
mid-year population estimates and projections series.
N at io n al S t at ist ic s
10
The United Nations recommended definition of a short-term
international migrant is a person who moves to a country other
than that of his or her usual residence for a period of at least 3
months but less than a year (12 months), except in cases where
the movement to that country is for purposes of recreation, holiday,
visits to friends and relatives, business, medical treatment or religious
pilgrimage.
Figure 1
Population Change mid-2001 to mid-2006
United Kingdom
Orkney Islands
Shetland Islands
Population change as a percentage
8 or over
4 to 7.9
0 to 3.9
under 0
Average local authority population change = 2.7%
London
See Inset
Isles of Scilly
Source: Office for National Statistics
Figure 2
Population Turnover mid-2001 to mid-2006
England, Wales and Northern Ireland
Average annual volume of migration,
moves per hundred population
18 or over
15 to 17.9
11 to 14.9
7 to 10.9
under 7
Average local authority migration
per 100 population = 10.8
See Inset
London
Source: Office for National Statistics
Po p u l a t i o n Tr en d s 130
Table 3
Wi n t e r 2007
Population estimates, mid-2006, and mid-2006 based population projections 2011 to 2031 – UK and constituent countries
millions
Percentage increase
mid-2006
mid-2011
mid-2016
mid-2021
mid-2026
mid-2031
2006–2031
UK
60.6
62.8
65.0
67.2
69.3
71.1
17.4
2006–2011
England
50.8
52.7
54.7
56.8
58.7
60.4
19.0
3.8
Wales
3.0
3.0
3.1
3.2
3.3
3.3
11.1
2.4
Scotland
5.1
5.2
5.3
5.3
5.4
5.4
5.0
1.7
Northern Ireland
1.7
1.8
1.9
1.9
2.0
2.0
14.8
4.0
3.6
Source: Mid-year population estimates, 1981 and 2006, Office for National Statistics, General Register Office for Scotland, Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency; 2006-based National
Population Projections, Office for National Statistics
Recently published experimental estimates of short-term migration3
indicate that according to the UN recommended definition an additional
43,000 people were, on average, temporarily resident in England &
Wales for work or study purposes at any given time during the year to
mid-2005. Of these, 16,000 were based in London. The UN definition
only includes visits made for between three and 12 months. Experimental
estimates show that over the year to mid-2005, the flow of short-term
migration was much higher (105,000 using the UN definition) than the
population present at a given time which is inevitable given that such
visits last for only a fraction of a year.
The population of the UK is expected to continue to grow. It is projected
that it will rise to 65 million by 2016 (an increase of 7.2 per cent
compared with 2006), and will exceed 71 million by 20314 (Table 3).
The populations of all four constituent countries of the UK are projected
to rise more quickly over the next five years than they have over the
previous five years. Over the next 25 years, the populations of England,
Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland are projected to increase by
19 per cent, 11 per cent, 5 per cent and 15 per cent respectively.
It is projected that the population of the UK will increase by
over 10 million (17 per cent) by 2031.
90
Estimated age structure of the UK population:
mid-1981 and mid-2006
80
2031
2031
70
60
2006
50
2006
40
30
20
10
600
400
200
Males (thousands)
0
200
400
Females (thousands)
600
Source: Mid-year population estimates, 2006, Office for National Statistics, General
Register Office for Scotland, Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency;
2006-based National Population Projections, Office for National Statistics
Estimated and projected UK population aged 65
and over
10
65–74
8
75–84
85+
Millions
The population of the UK is ageing. In 1981, 22 per cent of the population
was aged under 16 while 15 per cent of the population was aged 65 and over
(Figure 3). Compared with 1981, there were over a million fewer children
in the UK population in 2006 (19 per cent of the population) and over 1.2
million more people aged 65 and over (16 per cent of the population). The
UK population of persons aged 16–64 increased by 4.0 million between
1981 and 2006. The average (mean) age of people in this group increased
from 38 years to 40 years over the same period.
Estimated and projected age structure of the UK
population: mid-2006 and mid-2031
100
Figure 5
Age Structure of the UK Population
Figure 3
Figure 4
6
4
2
80
0
70
50
40
20
1981
10
600
mid-2031
2006
30
1981
mid-2006
Source: Mid-year population estimates, 1981 and 2006, Office for National Statistics,
General Register Office for Scotland, Northern Ireland Statistics and Research
Agency; 2006-based National Population Projections, Office for National Statistics
60
2006
mid-1981
400
200
0
200
400
600
Males (thousands)
Females (thousands)
Source: Mid-year population estimates, 1981 and 2006, Office for National Statistics, General
Register Office for Scotland, Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency
It is projected that the population of the UK aged 65 and over will rise by
63 per cent to 15.8 million over the next 25 years, while the population
aged under 16 will rise by just 11 per cent to 12.8 million (Figure 4).
It is projected that in 2007, for the first time, the population of state
pensionable age (65 and over for men and 60 and over for women) will
exceed the number of children under 16. By 2031 it is projected that
persons aged under 16 will make up 18 per cent of the UK population,
while those aged 65 and over will account for 22 per cent of the UK
population. Over the same period, the population aged 16–64 is projected
13
N a t i o n a l St a t i s t i cs
Po p u lat io n Tr e n ds 1 3 0
Win te r 2 0 07
to rise by 8 per cent (3.2 million) to 42.5 million, with the average (mean)
age of persons in this age group rising slightly from 40.0 to 40.3 years.
In 1981, just 1 per cent of the population were aged 85 and over. Over the
last 25 years, the number in this age group has more than doubled to 1.2
million (Figure 5), with those aged 85 and over now representing 2 per
cent of the population. Indeed, the estimated number of people aged 85 and
over rose by 6 per cent in just one year between mid-2005 and mid-2006,
and over the next 25 years it is projected that the number of people in this
age group will more than double to 2.9 million, meaning that 4 per cent
of the UK population will be aged 85 or more. The estimated number of
people aged 100 and over in the UK reached almost 10,000 in 2006, and by
2031 it is projected that this number will increase six-fold to 59,000.
Table 5
UK population by ethnic group, 2001
Percentages
England
Wales
Scotland
Northern
Ireland
United
Kingdom
90.9
97.9
98.0
99.3
92.1
White Groups
Non-White Groups:
Mixed
The ageing of the population, and in particular the projected doubling of
the population aged 85 or more over the next 25 years, will have major
implications for future policy and service provision. Analyses based upon the
results of the General Household Survey for Great Britain5 have indicated
that when interviewed, over 20 per cent of those aged 85 and over had
visited their GP within the last two weeks and over 25 per cent had visited
hospital as an out-patient in the last 3 months. In 2001, over 10 per cent of
men and over 20 per cent of women aged 85 and over lived in communal
establishments. For the remainder living in private households, over 40 per
cent of men and 70 per cent of women aged 85 and over lived alone.
Dependency ratios are measured as the number of children (those aged
0–15) and persons of state pensionable age (currently 60 and over for
women and 65 and over for men) per 100 people of working age (16–59 for
women and 16–64 for men). The overall dependency ratio has fallen from
67 to 61 in the last 25 years (Table 4), due to the rise in the working age
population combined with the fall in the number of children outweighing
the rise in the number of persons of state pensionable age. It is projected
that the dependency ratio will increase a little to 64 by 2031 despite the
forthcoming changes in the state pension ages for both men and women6.
Characteristics of the UK Population
Ethnicity
In 2001, 8 per cent of the UK population belonged to a non-white ethnic
group7. This percentage varied for the four UK countries (Table 5) – while
9 per cent of the population of England were non-white, the percentages
for Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland were much lower (2 per cent, 2
per cent and 0.7 per cent respectively).
The latest experimental population estimates by ethnic group for
England8 indicate that between mid-2001 and mid-2005 the population
belonging to non-white ethnic groups increased by 945,000, accounting
for almost 11 per cent of the English population in mid-2005.
Table 4
Estimated and projected UK dependency
ratios, 1981, 2006 and 2031
Number per 100 persons of working age:
Children
Persons of State
Pensionable Age
All
Dependents
37
30
67
mid-2006
31
30
61
mid-2031
29
34
64
mid-1981
Source: Mid-year population estimates, 1981 and 2006, Office for National Statistics, General
Register Office for Scotland, Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency; 2006-based
National Population Projections, Office for National Statistics.
N at io n al S t at ist ic s
14
2.1
2.0
0.7
7.9
0.6
0.3
0.2
1.2
Asian or Asian British
4.6
0.9
1.1
0.2
4.0
Black or Black British
2.3
0.2
0.2
0.1
2.0
Chinese or other ethnic groups
0.9
0.4
0.5
0.3
0.8
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
All ethnic groups
By 2031, it is projected that 2.9 million people will be aged
85 or more (4 per cent of the total UK population), of whom
59,000 will be aged 100 or more.
9.1
1.3
Source: Census 2001, Office for National Statistics, General Register Office for Scotland,
Northern Ireland Statistics & Research Agency
The age structure of the different ethnic groups within the UK population
differs greatly (Figure 6 – note that the population in white ethnic groups
is far larger than that in any of the other groups and thus the scales differ
between the charts). While the average (mean) age of those in White
ethnic groups was 40 years in 2001, the corresponding average ages of
those in Black, Asian and Mixed ethnic groups were 31, 29 and 21 years
respectively. The very young age structure of the Mixed ethnic groups
reflects the increasing prevalence of inter-ethnic partnerships. In 2001,
two and a half per cent of couples (married and cohabiting) in England
were from different ethnic groups.
Whilst the average age of those in White ethnic groups was
40 years in 2001, the corresponding average ages of those
in Black, Asian and Mixed ethnic groups were 31, 29 and 21
years respectively
Country of birth
In 1981, just over six per cent of the UK population had been born
overseas. By 2001, this had risen to over eight per cent, and latest estimates
from the Labour Force Survey indicate that in 2006 almost ten per cent
of the UK population were born overseas. Between 2001 and 2006, the
estimated number of people living in the UK who were born in the eight
Central and Eastern European countries that joined the European Union
in May 2004 (known as the ‘A8’ countries) rose to over 400,000. Despite
this recent rise, this group still only accounts for seven per cent of the total
overseas-born population of the UK (Figure 7).
In 2006, almost 10 per cent of the UK population were
born overseas
Households and Families
In 2006, there were just under 25 million households9 in the UK, a rise
of over 20 per cent since 1981 (Figure 8). While the number of multiple
person households rose by just 9 per cent over this period, the number
of single person households rose by 65 per cent. Much of this rise in
single person households was as a result of people of working age being
increasingly likely to live alone. In 1981, approximately two-thirds of
single person households were people of the state pensionable age, but
this had fallen to approximately half by 2006. It is projected that the
number of households in the UK will rise to 30 million by 2021, of which
over a third will be single person households.
There were an estimated 17 million families9 living in the UK in 2006.
Over the last 10 years, the number of married couple families has fallen
slightly, while the number of cohabiting couple families has increased by
over 60 per cent (Figure 9). While there were over 180,000 more lone
parent families in 2006 than in 1996, the estimated number of single
father families actually fell slightly over this period.
Po p u l a t i o n Tr en d s 130
Figure 6
Age structure of the population of Great Britain by ethnic group
White Ethnic Groups
500
400
Mixed Ethnic Groups
80
80
70
70
60
60
50
50
40
40
30
30
20
20
10
10
300
200
100
Males (thousands)
0
100
200
300
400
Females (thousands)
500
30
20
10
Males (thousands)
0
10
20
Females (thousands)
30
0
10
20
Females (thousands)
30
Black Ethnic Groups
Asian Ethnic Groups
30
Wi n t e r 2007
20
10
Males (thousands)
80
80
70
70
60
60
50
50
40
40
30
30
20
20
10
10
0
10
20
Females (thousands)
30
30
20
10
Males (thousands)
Source: Census 2001, Office for National Statistics, General Register Office for Scotland
Figure 7
Overseas-born population of the UK by selected
country of birth, 2006
Households by type, UK, 1981-2006
Figure 8
3.0
30
2.5
25
2.0
20
Millions
Millions
Single person households
A8
1.5
1.0
15
10
5
0.5
0
0.0
Multiple person households
Irish Republic
Rest of EU
Old
India/
Commonwealth Pakistan/
Bangladesh
Source: Labour Force Survey, Office for National Statistics
Rest of the
World
1981
1991
2001
2006
Source: Censuses, Office for National Statistics, General Register Office for Scotland,
Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency;
Household Estimates, Communities and Local Government, Scottish Executive;
Labour Force Survey, Office for National Statistics
Components of Population Change
Increases in the number of births, decreases in the number of deaths, and
changes in the pattern of international migration into and out of the UK have
all contributed to population growth over the last twenty-five years (Figure
10). While natural change, the difference between the numbers of births
and deaths, has remained relatively constant, adding an average of 100,000
people to the UK population each year, the contribution of international
migration to population change has been far more variable. Between mid1981 and mid-1986, the effect of net migration was to reduce the population
slightly. This is in sharp contrast to recent years when net migration has
been the predominant driver of population change. Between mid-2001 and
mid-2006, net migration and other changes accounted for almost two-thirds
of the 1.5 million growth in the UK population (not including the impact
that net migration had upon the number births in the UK).
Births
In 2006 there were 749,000 live births in the UK, up almost 12 per cent
from 669,000 in 200110. The total fertility rate (TFR, see Box Two) in the
UK has consistently risen since 2001 from a record low of 1.63 children
per woman to 1.84 children per woman in 2006. This is the highest
15
N a t i o n a l St a t i s t i cs
Po p u lat io n Tr e n ds 1 3 0
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Families by type, UK, 1996 and 2006
Figure 9
The total fertility rate in the UK has consistently risen since
2001 from a record low of 1.63 children per woman to 1.84
children per woman in 2006
15.0
Over the last twenty-five years, the TFR for Northern Ireland has
remained higher than that for the UK as a whole, but the difference
between the two has narrowed from over 0.7 children per woman in 1981
to just 0.1 children per woman in 2006. Since the mid-1980s the TFR for
Scotland has been 0.1 to 0.2 children per woman lower than that for the
UK as a whole. The recent rises in fertility rates have resulted in the TFR
for England and Wales in 2006 being similar to that observed in 1980.
The TFR for Wales was higher than that for England during the 1990s,
but has been very similar to that for England since 2001.
1996
2006
Millions
10.0
5.0
0.0
Lone father
family
Lone mother
family
Married couple Cohabiting couple
family
family
Source: Labour Force Survey, Office for National Statistics
Box two
Glossary of Demographic Terms
Age-Specific Fertility Rate (ASFR)
Figure 10
Components of population change, UK, mid-1981
to mid-2006
Total Fertility Rate (TFR)
2.0
The average number of children a group of women would have
if they experienced the age-specific fertility rates for a particular
year throughout their child-bearing life. For example a TFR of
1.84 in 2006 means that a group of women would have an
average of 1.84 children each during their lifetime based solely on
2006’s age-specific fertility rates. This measure reflects the current
intensity of childbearing and the rate at which the population is
replacing itself, rather than completed family size.
Natural change
Millions
1.5
Net migration and other changes
1.0
0.5
0.0
–0.5
Replacement Fertility Level
1981–1986
1986–1991
1991–1996
1996–2001
2001–2006
Source: Mid-year population estimates, 1981 to 2006, Office for National Statistics, General
Register Office for Scotland, Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency.
Figure 11
Total fertility rate, UK and constituent countries,
1961 to 2006
4.0
UK
England & Wales
3.5
Children per woman
The number of live births in a year to women aged x, per
thousand women aged x in the mid-year population.
The level of fertility required to ensure a population replaces
itself in size. In the UK, as in all developed countries, a fertility
rate of 2.1 is usually taken as roughly approximate to the level of
replacement fertility.
Completed Family Size (CFS)
The average number of children that women born in a particular
year have had by the end of their childbearing years. This measure
takes into account changes in the timing of childbearing between
generations, but is not a timely measure of family size as it is
based upon women who have completed their childbearing.
Scotland
Age-standardised Mortality Rate
Northern Ireland
3.0
Age-standardised mortality rates cover all ages and are
standardised to the European Standard Population, expressed per
million population; they allow comparisons between populations
with different age structures, including between males and
females over time.
2.5
2.0
1.5
Period and Cohort Life Expectancy
1.0
1961
1966
1971
1976
1981
1986
1991
1996
2001
2006
Source: Birth registrations data and mid-year population estimates, 1961 to 2006: Office
for National Statistics, General Register Office for Scotland, Northern Ireland
Statistics and Research Agency.
TFR since 1980, but is still below replacement level (see Box Two) and
much lower than the rates seen during the 1960s baby boom (Figure
11). The recent rise in the TFR has occurred in all four countries of the
UK. Several other countries around the world have also experienced
increasing TFRs over the past five years including France, Sweden,
Denmark, Finland and Australia.
N at io n al S t at ist ic s
16
Period life expectancy is calculated using the age-specific
mortality rates for a given period (either a single year or a run of
years) with no allowance for any later actual or projected changes
in mortality. It provides a useful statistic for summarising mortality
rates over a given period, but it does not reflect the length of time
a person would expect to live since it does not allow for known
or assumed changes in future mortality rates as that person ages.
Cohort life expectancy is calculated using known or projected
mortality rates as a person ages. It therefore reflects the length of
time a person would expect to live.
Po p u l a t i o n Tr en d s 130
70
65
Total international long-term migration to and from
the UK, 1991 to 2006
Figure 14
600
Immigration
500
Net migration
Emigration
400
300
200
100
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
19
97
98
19
19
95
96
19
94
19
93
19
19
91
0
Source: Total International Migration estimates, Office for National Statistics
Figure 15
Net international long-term migration to the UK by
citizenship, 2004 to 2006
600
400
Thousands
Age-standardised mortality rate by sex, England &
Wales, 1981 to 2006
14,000
Rate per million population
75
Men
Women
Source: Interim Life Tables and National Population Projections, Office for National Statistics
In 2006, 191,000 more people came to live in the UK for a year or more
than left to live overseas13 (Figure 14). An estimated 591,000 long-term
200
A8
0
–200
Males
12,000
Females
10,000
–400
British
European
Commonwealth
Other
Union
foreign
Source: Total International Migration estimates, Office for National Statistics
8,000
international migrants (see Box One) arrived to live in the UK, of whom
510,000 (86 per cent) were non-British citizens. The estimated number
of people emigrating from the UK reached a record high of 400,000 in
2006, of whom just over half (207,000) were British citizens.
6,000
4,000
2,000
0
1981
2031
80
60
Migration
Figure 12
2004–06
92
Greater than expected falls in mortality over the last two years have
led to increases in the assumptions related to life expectancy used for
producing the National Population Projections. For the latest 2006-based
projections, the UK assumption for period life expectancy at birth in
2031 is 82.7 years for men and 86.2 years for women, a rise of 1.3 years
and 1.2 years respectively when compared with the assumptions for 2031
used for the 2004-based population projections. While the assumptions
for 2031 include improvements in mortality rates between now and 2031,
they do not take into account improvements beyond 2031. Cohort life
expectancies at birth (that include allowance for further improvements in
mortality rates beyond 2031) are 8.6 years higher for men and 8.0 years
higher for women compared to the equivalent period measures.
85
19
Period life expectancy (see Box Two) in the UK has risen steadily over
the past 25 years (Figure 13). Latest estimates12 indicate that based on
mortality rates in 2004-2006, compared to mortality rates experienced
in 1980-1982, life expectancy for newborn boys has risen by six years to
76.9 years, while that for newborn girls has risen by over four years to
81.3 years. These estimates of life expectancy do not take into account
projected improvements in mortality during the lifetime of children born
in 2004–06. Allowing for the projected mortality improvements assumed
in the 2006-based population projections, cohort life expectancy at birth
in 2005 is 88.0 years for boys and 91.3 years for girls.
1980–82
19
In 2006 there were 572,000 deaths registered in the UK11, 274,000
for men and 298,000 for women. Age-standardised mortality rates
(see Box Two) in England & Wales for males and females were 7,123
and 4,989 deaths per million population respectively. These rates have
fallen steadily since 1981, with the male rate falling by 42 per cent and
the female rate falling by 33 per cent (Figure 12). Over the last 5 years
alone, there has been a 13 per cent fall in the male age-standardised death
rate and a 10 per cent fall in the female rate, with the difference between
the male and female rates in 2006 being the lowest ever recorded.
90
Expectation of life at birth (years)
Deaths
Period life expectancy at birth, 1980–82, 2004–06
and 2031
Figure 13
Thousands
The continued rise in UK fertility rates over recent years has led to the
first rise in the long-term fertility assumption used for producing the
National Population Projections since the 1960s baby boom. For the latest
2006-based projections, a completed family size of 1.84 children per woman
has been assumed for the long-term compared with the previous assumption
of 1.74 children per woman used for the 2004-based projections.
Wi n t e r 2007
1986
1991
1996
2001
2006
Source: Death registrations data and mid-year population estimates, 1981 to 2006: Office
for National Statistics
In 2006, 191,000 more people came to live in the UK
for a year or more than left to live overseas
17
N a t i o n a l St a t i s t i cs
Po p u lat io n Tr e n ds 1 3 0
Win te r 2 0 07
In the three year period from 2004 to 2006, citizens of the eight Central
and Eastern European countries that joined the EU in May 2004 (known
as the ‘A8’ countries) accounted for 13 per cent of total long-term
immigration and 4 per cent of total long-term emigration. There was
thus a net migration of 180,000 A8 citizens to the UK over this period,
compared with long-term net inflows of 100,000 citizens of other EU
countries, 420,000 Commonwealth citizens, and 260,000 other foreign
citizens. Over the same period, there was a long-term net emigration of
320,000 British citizens (Figure 15).
The continued high level of international migration to the UK over
recent years has contributed to a rise in the long-term assumption for net
migration used for producing the National Population Projections. For
the latest 2006-based projections, a net international migration inflow
of 190,000 each year has been assumed, compared with the previous
assumption of 145,000 a year used for the 2004-based projections.
However, 20,000 of this increase is attributable to a methodological
change following the announcement earlier this year of improvements to
the estimation of international migration14.
Focus on Fertility
As already outlined, the total fertility rate (TFR, see Box Two) in the UK
has been rising over the past five years from a record low of 1.63 children
per woman in 2001 to 1.84 children per woman in 2006, the highest level
since 1980 (Figure 11).
Trends in age-specific fertility rates have also been changing in recent years
(Figure 16). The general trend over the last twenty-five years in the UK
and all the constituent countries has been of falling fertility at younger ages
alongside rising fertility at older ages. This has led to a steady increase in
the mean age of childbearing in the UK. In 1981 the mean age of women at
childbirth was 27 years but by 2006 this had risen to 29 years. Since 2002,
fertility rates have continued to rise at older ages, but there have also been
small rises in fertility rates for women in their twenties. This rise in the
fertility of younger women has been particularly unexpected and it is not
clear whether this trend will continue over future years.
Fertility can also be analysed from a cohort perspective by considering
family size achieved at selected ages by women born in different years.
There has been a steady decline in achieved family size for cohorts born
since the mid-1940s (Table 6). Among women who have already reached
age 45, average family size fell from 2.22 children for the cohort born
in 1945 to 1.98 for the cohort born in 1960. Similarly, women born in
1965, 1970 and 1975 have had steadily fewer children by ages 25 and 30
Figure 16
Table 6
Average achieved family size by age, UK,
selected birth cohorts
Achieved family size by age of woman
Year of birth
1945
20
25
30
35
40
45
0.35
1.24
1.87
2.12
2.21
2.22
1950
0.36
1.07
1.67
1.97
2.07
2.09
1955
0.31
0.93
1.54
1.88
2.01
2.03
1.98
1960
0.24
0.81
1.42
1.81
1.96
1965
0.20
0.71
1.29
1.70
1.87
1.63
1970
0.22
0.67
1.19
1975
0.21
0.59
1.09
1980
0.22
0.59
1985
0.19
Source: Birth registrations data and mid-year population estimates, Office for National Statistics,
General Register Office for Scotland, Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency
than earlier cohorts. However, although achieved fertility by age 30 has
been falling, the 1965 and 1970 cohorts have partly ‘caught up’ because
of higher fertility in their thirties. For example, women born in 1970 had
0.44 children on average between ages 30 and 35 compared with 0.38
children for women born ten years earlier.
In a marked change in the trend seen previously where each successive
cohort has achieved slightly lower fertility at each age, women born in
1980 had achieved the same family size by age 25 as the 1975 cohort.
It remains to be seen whether the upturn in fertility for women aged 20
to 29 since 2002 will lead to higher completed family sizes for women
born during the 1980s or whether these most recent cohorts will have
relatively lower fertility in their thirties to compensate.
Factors influencing fertility
In most developed countries, fertility rates for women in their thirties
and forties have been increasing since the mid-1970s. Women have been
increasingly delaying their childbearing for a variety of reasons including
wider participation in higher education, increased proportions of women
in full-time employment, later marriage and partnership formation, and
medical advances that have enabled childbearing at older ages.
Previous studies15 have shown that women with higher education
qualifications tend to have children later in life and are more likely
to be childless. Over the last 20 years, there has been a large increase
in the proportion of women in the UK who have a higher education
qualification. Labour force participation by women can also lead to
Age-Specific Fertility Rates, UK, 1981-2006
Figure 17
Percentage of women in full-time or part-time
work, UK, 1986-2006
100
120
30-34
100
1986
1991
1996
2001
2006
80
25-29
80
20-24
60
35-39
40
Percentage
Live births per 1,000 women
140
60
40
Under 20
20
0
1981
40 and over
1986
1991
1996
2001
2006
Source: Birth registrations data and mid-year population estimates, 1981 to 2006, Office
for National Statistics, General Register Office for Scotland, Northern Ireland Statistics and
Research Agency
N at io n al S t at ist ic s
18
20
0
18–24
25–34
Age
Source: Labour Force Survey, Office for National Statistics
35–49
Po p u l a t i o n Tr en d s 130
Figure 18
17
Live births by country of birth of mother, UK, 2006
Table 7
Wi n t e r 2007
Estimated total fertility rates by country
of birth of mother, England & Wales, 2002
and 2006
Estimated Total Fertility Rate
2002
2006
UK born
1.5
1.7
UK
Born outside UK
2.3
2.5
Republic of Ireland
Source: Birth registration data and populations by country of birth from the Labour Force
Survey, Office for National Statistics
Mother born in:
Other EU25 country
India/Pakistan/Bangladesh
Figure 19
Other countries
Change in estimated age specific fertility rates for
UK born and non-UK born women, England and
Wales, 2002–06
160
non-UK born
postponement of fertility. The percentage of women aged 25-49
working full-time or part-time has increased over the last 20 years
(Figure 17), although there is some indication that this rate of change has
slowed over the last five years.
In contrast to women in their thirties and forties, fertility rates for women
in their twenties decreased steadily in the UK throughout the 1980s and
1990s. However, since 2001, fertility rates at these ages have stopped
falling and in the 25–29 age group have started to increase. Possible
explanations for this change may be changes in maternity leave, taxation
and benefits for those with children, and also the impact of recent high
levels of international migration to the UK.
Impact of international migration on births
In the decade 1996 to 2005, an estimated 1.8 million women of
childbearing age arrived to live in the UK and 1.1 million UK resident
women of childbearing age left the UK. In 2001, 15 per cent of births
in the UK were to mothers born outside the UK and by 2006 this had
increased to almost 21 per cent of births in the UK. The largest groups
of mothers born outside the UK are those born in Pakistan, India and
Bangladesh, who together accounted for 5 per cent of all births in the
UK in 2006 (Figure 18). The number of births to mothers born in EU
countries other than the UK and the Republic of Ireland increased by 87
per cent between 2001 and 2006 and accounted for almost 4 per cent of
all births in the UK in 2006; this reflects the large impact that expansion
of the EU in 2004 has had upon international migration to the UK.
Although international migration is certainly having an impact on UK
births, the relationship between international migration and fertility is
not at all straight-forward. International migration can affect the number
of births in two different ways. First, it can affect both the size and
age structure of the female population of childbearing age and thus the
number of women who can potentially have children. Analysis of births
in England & Wales in 2006 indicates that net international migration
between mid-2005 and mid-2006 increased the number of births in 2006
by 7,400 solely due to the impact of both immigration and emigration
upon the size and age structure of the UK population (this estimated
impact is based on the assumption that immigrants, emigrants and the
UK population have the same fertility rates).
The second way in which migration can impact on fertility is if there are
differences between the eventual completed family size of in-migrants
and out-migrants compared to the non-migrant population. Migration
may also have an effect on the timing of childbearing, for example if
births are accelerated or postponed around the time of migration, and can
hence affect the period TFR measure.
Age-specific fertility rate
140
Source: Birth registration data, Office for National Statistics, General Register Office for
Scotland, Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency
2006
120
2002
100
2006
80
2002
60
UK born
40
20
0
15–19
20–24
25–29
30–34
35–39
40+
Age
Source: Birth registration data and populations by country of birth from the Labour Force
Survey, Office for National Statistics
In 2006 the estimated TFR in England and Wales for women born
outside the UK was 2.5, notably higher than the estimated TFR of 1.7
for UK born women (Table 7). However non-UK born women are
not a homogenous group. Some groups have much higher fertility on
average than UK born women, in particular those born in Pakistan and
Bangladesh. Other groups have fertility rates far more similar to those
born in the UK, including women born in other EU countries, Old
Commonwealth countries, China and Hong Kong.
Between 2002 and 2006 in England & Wales, the estimated TFR for
women born in the UK increased from 1.5 to 1.7, while the estimated
TFR for women born outside the UK rose from 2.3 to 2.5. When these
rates are decomposed by age group (Figure 19), the fertility of women
born outside the UK has increased more in the 25–29 and 30–34 age
groups than it has for women born in the UK, and it therefore appears
that international migration, to some extent, has been contributing to the
recent increase in fertility rates in the 25–29 and 30–34 age groups. In
contrast, the small increase in the fertility of women aged 20–24 appears
to have been driven by UK born women.
Similarly, information on women’s intentions with respect to family size
from the General Household Surveys of 2000 to 2005 for Great Britain
show that women born outside the UK have slightly higher intended
family sizes at each age than UK born women. Women born outside the
UK are more likely than UK born women to be intending to have large
families, for example 18 per cent of women born overseas aged 30–34
stated that they intended to have four or more children, compared to just
11 per cent of UK born women of the same age. Analysis of actual family
size indicates that women born overseas are indeed more likely to have
larger families than UK born women, but are also more likely than UK
born women to remain childless.
International migration has clearly had an impact on the number of births
in the UK over recent years. Although it does not on its own explain the
19
N a t i o n a l St a t i s t i cs
Po p u lat io n Tr e n ds 1 3 0
Win te r 2 0 07
rise in the TFR for the UK over the past five years, analysis suggests
that it has indeed contributed to this rise. The higher average fertility of
women born overseas, especially those born in countries such as Pakistan
and Bangladesh, is of particular relevance when considered alongside the
relatively young adult age structure of the UK population of Asian ethnic
origin (Figure 6). However, preliminary analysis comparing fertility rates
for, say, women born in Pakistan with women of Pakistani ethnic origin
(which will include second and subsequent generation migrants) suggests
that the fertility of second and subsequent generation migrants is lower
than that of first generation migrants, and may be converging towards the
fertility levels observed for UK born women.
This ‘focus’ section has outlined some of the latest research relating
to fertility in the UK, but more detailed articles on some of the
issues discussed here are planned for future editions of Population
Trends, including an article in the next edition describing in detail the
background to the fertility assumptions used in the latest 2006-based
population projections for the UK.
Looking to the Future
As this article has described, the UK population is currently experiencing
a period of rapid growth, while at the same time becoming increasingly
diverse and mobile. These factors make it increasingly challenging to
measure population change accurately. To respond to this challenge and
the need to improve the quality and coherence of population statistics
across the UK, the National Statistics Centre for Demography (NSCD)
was formed at the end of January 2006. The NSCD work programme16 is
overseen by the UK Population Committee, and advice and guidance are
provided by an Advisory Board of demographic experts.
A key aim of the NSCD work programme is to minimise and better
understand the future divergence between the rolled forward and
Census-based population estimates. When population estimates first
became available based on the 2001 Census they were substantially
lower than those rolled forward from the previous 1991 Census, and
several revisions were subsequently made to the population estimates for
England & Wales following extensive work by ONS to reconcile these
differences. A key objective for our future development work within
NSCD is to ensure that in producing inter-censal population estimates
and projections, methods and data sources are of the highest possible
quality, definitions are relevant to current patterns of population change,
and full use is made of available and future data sources.
It is clear that many of our stakeholders and users of population statistics,
including across central and local government, want to see further
improvements in population and, more specifically, migration data. This
is understandable at a time of significant population change which is
impacting on our economy, society and services. Some improvements
have been introduced by ONS this year to the methods used for producing
population statistics for England & Wales14. Improvements to the methods
for estimating international migration, and more specifically the methods
by which these estimates are distributed between local authority areas
within England & Wales, were introduced in August 2007 when 2006 midyear population estimates for England & Wales were first released.
ONS has also begun to address the need for information on the numbers
and characteristics of people entering and leaving the UK for periods
of less than 12 months. As discussed in this article, such people are not
included in population estimates and projections, but they can, nonetheless,
have a major impact on the economy and service provision, particularly
at a local level. ONS has recently released experimental estimates of
short-term migration stocks and flows for England & Wales using a range
of different definitions3 and further work is planned on the feasibility of
distributing these national estimates down to local authority level.
N at io n al S t at ist ic s
20
However, these changes are only steps in the right direction and we
recognise that more needs to be done. Over the past decade, migration
has become the main driver of population change within the UK (Figure
10), and it will continue to be a major focus of future development
work. The report of the inter-departmental Task Force into improving
international migration statistics published last year17 explained the
difficulties associated with accurate measurement and estimation of
migration and stressed the importance of sharing information and
collaborative working across government in order to secure improved
migration statistics. The Task Force made a number of recommendations:
some of the most important of these relate to more comprehensive
counting of people at places of entry and exit to the United Kingdom,
and the potential use of administrative data sources to identify better the
numbers and locations of people in the country at any point in time. In
planning for 2008/09 and beyond, ONS will publish details of how the
recommendations can be taken forward, while recognising that it will
require a significant cross-departmental effort to deliver them. Work on
some of the recommendations is already underway, such as improving
the coherence of reporting on migration across Government.
One specific recommendation of the Task Force was to improve the
targeting of migrants within a port survey, and ONS has recently
reported on an ongoing review of port surveys18. As a result of findings
of the review to date, additional ‘filter shifts’ will be introduced to the
International Passenger Survey in April 2008 to boost the sample size
of migrants travelling through Manchester, Stansted and Luton airports.
These changes are further steps in the right direction and will build
upon the extension of such filter shifts to better capture out-migrants
as well as in-migrants from January 2007. The review team are now
conducting further work in order to recommend more significant changes
from 2009. Similarly, preliminary work has started on seeing how our
household surveys could be strengthened, including some initial scoping
and feasibility work on extending the surveys to cover communal
establishments.
While migration is a key focus of development work within NSCD, it
is not the only area of research. For example, with the aim of giving
users better information on uncertainty and the expected accuracy
of population projections, ONS is currently investigating the use of
stochastic forecasting techniques to produce probabilistic projections
of the UK population. In addition, the Welsh Assembly Government
is currently investigating the possibility of using a different
methodology to produce population projections at local authority
level. This new methodology is based on a ‘bottom-up’ approach taking
into account information at a local level and it is hoped that
new population projections for areas in Wales will be published in early
2008.
While most of the development work within NSCD is focussed upon
improving inter-censal estimates and projections of the population, active
input is also being provided into the development of the 2011 Census19
and the Integrated Household Survey. Work is ongoing to ensure that
all population groups are well-defined and enumerated in the Census;
potential new questions are under consideration and data collection
methods are being designed with the overall aim of maximising response.
Together with the implementation of further improvements to inter-censal
population estimates and projections over the coming years, this work
should indeed help to minimise the discrepancy between rolled-forward
and Census-based population estimates in 2011, and to improve the
understanding of whatever level of discrepancy does eventually
occur.
Finally, but also significantly, the NSCD work programme recognises that
the impacts of the current population change need to be worked through
and reported on. ONS and the devolved administrations have been looking
increasingly to free up resources from the production of statistics to carry
Po p u l a t i o n Tr en d s 130
out more demographic analysis and reporting. Some of this work does
not necessarily have to be done by the National Statistical Office itself but
could be done in partnership with other organisations and we are looking at
possibilities in this area, including with the Economic and Social Research
Council (ESRC). The improvements planned for our population and
migration statistics, coupled with an enhanced level of demographic analysis
and reporting, should improve the quality of what we can offer customers,
for example to support the planning of services, as well as enhance the input
NSCD can make to the policy debate in this area over the coming years.
Notes and References
1 a) Welsh Assembly Government (2007) Wales’s Population: A
Demographic Overview 1971-2005. Available at: http://www.wales.
gov.uk/statistics
b) General Register Office for Scotland (2007) Scotland’s Population
2006: The Registrar General’s Annual Review of Demographic
Trends. Available at: http://www.gro-scotland.gov.uk/statistics/
publications-and-data/annual-report-publications/rgs-annualreview-2006/index.html
c) Northern Ireland Statistics & Research Agency
(2007) Registrar General Northern Ireland Report 2006.
Available at: http://www.nisra.gov.uk/demography/default.
asp?cmsid=20_45&cms=demography_Publications&release=
2 Office for National Statistics (2007) Information on latest UK
Population Estimates available at: http://www.statistics.gov.uk/CCI/
nugget.asp?ID=6
3 Office for National Statistics (2007) Research Report on Short-term
Migration. Available at: http://www.statistics.gov.uk/about/data/
methodology/specific/population/future/imps/updates/downloads/
STM_Research_Report.pdf
4 Office for National Statistics (2007) Information on latest UK
Population Projections available at: http://www.statistics.gov.uk/cci/
nugget.asp?id=1352
5 Tomassini (2005): The demographic characteristics of the oldest
old in the United Kingdom, Population Trends 120 and Tomassini
(2006): The oldest old in Great Britain: change over the last 20
years, Population Trends 123. Both available at: http://www.
statistics.gov.uk/statbase/Product.asp?vlnk=6303
6 Under the provisions of the Pensions Acts of 1995 and 2007, state
pension age will (i) change from 65 years for men and 60 years for
women to 65 years for both sexes by 2020 and then (ii) increase
in three stages to 68 years for both sexes between 2024 and 2046.
Further details are available at: http://www.gad.gov.uk/Demography_
data/Population/2006/methodology/pensionage.asp
7 Office for National Statistics (2006) Focus on Ethnicity & Identity.
Available at: http://www.statistics.gov.uk/focuson/ethnicity/
8 Office for National Statistics (2007). Information on latest
experimental population estimates by ethnic groups available at:
http://www.statistics.gov.uk/StatBase/Product.asp?vlnk=14238
9 A household is defined as a person living alone or a group of people
who have the same address as their only or main residence and
with common housekeeping (for example, the 2001 Census defined
this as those who either share one meal a day or share the living
accommodation).
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
Wi n t e r 2007
A family is defined as a married or cohabiting couple, with or without
their never-married child(ren) of any age, including lone parents
with their never-married child(ren). A family could also consist of a
grandparent or grandparents with grandchild(ren) if the parents of the
grandchild(ren) are not usually resident in the household.
For further information and analysis, see Office for National
Statistics (2007) Focus on Families. Available at: http://www.
statistics.gov.uk/focuson/families/
a) Office for National Statistics (2007) Latest information on births
in England & Wales available at: http://www.statistics.gov.uk/cci/
nugget.asp?ID=951
b) General Register Office for Scotland (2007) Latest information
on births in Scotland available at: http://www.gro-scotland.gov.uk/
statistics/births.html
c) Northern Ireland Statistics & Research Agency (2007) Latest
information on births in Northern Ireland available at: http://www.
nisra.gov.uk/demography/default.asp?cmsid=20_45_71&cms=demog
raphy_Publications_Births+and+Deaths+Press+Release&release=
a) Office for National Statistics (2007) Latest information on deaths
in England & Wales available at: http://www.statistics.gov.uk/cci/
nugget.asp?ID=952
b) General Register Office for Scotland (2007) Latest information
on deaths in Scotland available at: http://www.gro-scotland.gov.uk/
statistics/deaths.html
c) Northern Ireland Statistics & Research Agency (2007) Latest
information on deaths in Northern Ireland available at: http://www.
nisra.gov.uk/demography/default.asp?cmsid=20_45_71&cms=demog
raphy_Publications_Births+and+Deaths+Press+Release&release=
Office for National Statistics (2007) Latest information on life
expectancy available at: http://www.statistics.gov.uk/cci/nugget.
asp?id=168
Office for National Statistics (2007) Information on latest UK Total
International Migration estimates available at: http://www.statistics.
gov.uk/cci/nugget.asp?id=260
Office for National Statistics (2007) Information on improved
methods for population statistics revisions in 2007 available at: http://
www.statistics.gov.uk/statbase/Product.asp?vlnk=14834
For example, Rendall and Smallwood (2003): Higher qualifications,
first-birth timing and further childbearing in England and Wales,
Population Trends 111 available at: http://www.statistics.gov.uk/
statbase/Product.asp?vlnk=6303
Office for National Statistics (2007) Information about the latest
NSCD work programme available at: http://www.statistics.gov.uk/
about/data/methodology/specific/population/default.asp
Report of the inter-departmental Task Force into international
migration statistics, issued December 2006. Available at: http://www.
statistics.gov.uk/statbase/Product.asp?vlnk=14731
Office for National Statistics (2007) Interim report on the port survey
review, issued October 2007. Available at: http://www.statistics.gov.
uk/about/data/methodology/specific/population/future/imps/updates/
downloads/PSREVIEW.pdf
Office for National Statistics (2007). Latest information on the
development of the 2011 Census available at: http://www.statistics.
gov.uk/census/2011census/news/default.asp
21
N a t i o n a l St a t i s t i cs