HIGHLIGHTS OF THE
SEVENTH POWER PLAN
13thAnnualEnergyConference
Skamania,Lodge
June10,2016
The Council
§  Northwest Power Act, 1980
§  Interstate compact
Ø  Eight members
Ø  Previously, no role for states
§  20-year plan
Ø  Demand forecast; low-cost resources; energy
efficiency
Ø  Address Columbia River Basin dam impacts
on fish and wildlife
Ø  Public involvement: Information, decisions
Ø  Residential exchange
§  BPA
Ø 
Consistency requirement
OregonJournal,April28,1981
Analysis for the 2016 Power Plan
§  Over20scenariosandsensiBvitystudiesanalyzed
todevelopaleastcost,leastriskplan
§  ResourceUncertainty
§  plannedandunplannedmajorresourceloss
§  sustainedlowgasandelectricityprices
§  Carbonemissions
§  regionalanalysisonly,nostatelevelfindings
§  evaluatedcarbonpolicies:renewableporLoliostandard,
carbonprices,andclosingcoalplants.
§  esBmatedmaximumcarbonreducBonpossiblewithexisBng
andemergingtechnology
§  AllplansrequiredtosaBsfyregionalresource
adequacystandards
3
Resource stack: Existing
Technologies
EnergyEfficiency(AverageCostw/T&DCredit)
EnergyEfficiency(AverageCostw/oT&DCredit)
SolarPV-LowerCost-S.Idaho
NaturalGas-CCCTWaterCooled
NaturalGas-CCCTDryCooled
GeothermalConvenBonal
SolarPV-S.Idaho
Wind-Montanaw/230kVTrans.
Wind-Montanaw/TransmissionUpgrade
Wind-ColumbiaBasin
SolarPV-W.Washington
NaturalGas-FrameGTEast
SolarPV-S.Idahow/TransmissionExpansion
NaturalGas-ReciprocaBngEngine-East
NaturalGas-AeroGTEast
$0
$50
$100
RealLevelizedCostofEnergy(2012$/MWh)
Capital
O&M+PropertyTaxes+Insurance
4
Fuel+Transmission
$150
Key Insight #1:
Capacity needs are driving the preferred resources in this power plan.
§  The ability to meet winter and summer
peak loads is now the major consideration
for future resource acquisition.
§  Cost effective capacity resources:
§  Energy efficiency
§  Demand response
§  Gas plants
5
Key Insight #2:
Conservation and demand response can meet nearly all forecast
growth in regional energy and capacity needs
Energy
14,000
CumulaHveResourceDevelopment(MegawaLs)
CumulaHveResourceDevelopment(AverageMegawaLs)
6,000
5,000
4,000
Wind
Solar
NaturalGas
ConservaBon
3,000
2,000
1,000
-
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
6
12,000
10,000
Capacity
Wind&SolarPV
NaturalGas
DemandResponse
ConservaBon
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
0
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
Key Insight #3
Load growth is likely to be low for the next 20 years
AverageRegionalLoadNetofEnergyEfficiency
(aMW)
25,000
20,000
15,000
ExisBngPolicy
10,000
SocialCostofCarbon-MidRange
5,000
-
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
Key Insight #4:
The NW continues to have low cost, low-carbon energy
§ 
Coal and natural gas were less than one-fourth of the Northwest power supply in
2014.
Hydropower
Energy
Efficiency
Coal
NaturalGas
Wind
Nuclear
Biomass
Petroleum&
PetCoke
Geothermal
Total
DispatchedaMW Dispatched%in
in2014
2014
15,434
46%
5,772
17%
4,695
14%
3,091
9%
2,648
8%
1.084
3%
430
1%
46
0%
30
0%
33,231
100%
8
Average Price of
Electricity to Ultimate
Customers by EndUse Sector,
by State, 2014 (Cents
per Kilowatthour)
All
Sectors
Census
Division
and State
Rank
Year 2014
Was hington
7.13
1
Wes t Virginia
Wyom ing
Arkans as
7.65
7.76
7.9
Idaho
Louis iana
Iowa
Kentucky
7.93
8.09
8.15
8.15
Oklahom a
Utah
North Dakota
Montana
Oregon
Nebras ka
8.18
8.35
8.41
8.59
8.68
8.84
Texas
8.94
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
Key Insight #5:
Carbon emissions are falling and can fall faster
§ 
Regional carbon emissions should fall 33% if we simply continue existing policies.
PNWAverage2001-2014
*NoCoalReBrements
Develop55%LessConservaBon
NoDemandResponseDevelopment
ExisBngPolicy
EstablishRegionalRPSat35%
ImposeMidRangeSocialCostofCarbon
ReBreAllCoal,ImposeMidRangeSCC
MaximumCO2ReducBonwithExisBngTechnology
ReBreAllCoal
ReBreAllCoal,ImposeMidRangeSCC,Only
*ScenarioassumedthattheannouncedreBrements
10
20
30
40
50
60
ofBoardman,CentraliaandNorthValmycoalplants -
donotoccur.
ProjectedCO2Emissionsin2035(MMT)
9
Key Insight #6
A west coast carbon price benefits NW power exporters
Carbonpricestestedinthemodel
FiscalYear
FY16
FY17
FY18
FY19
FY20
FY21
FY22
FY23
FY24
FY25
FY26
FY27
FY28
FY29
FY30
FY31
FY32
FY33
FY34
FY35
Mid-Range
$40.99
$42.07
$43.15
$45.31
$46.39
$46.39
$47.47
$48.54
$49.62
$50.70
$51.78
$52.86
$53.94
$55.02
$56.10
$56.10
$57.17
$58.25
$59.33
$60.41
Mid-Range Estimate of the Social Cost of Carbon Assumptions 2012$/Metric Ton of CO2)
10
Key Insight #7:
Energy efficiency reduces winter peaks.
Efficiency saves relatively more energy during peak hours and in the winter.
7%
ShareofAnnualSavings
§ 
6%
5%
4%
3%
2%
1%
HeavyLoadHours
LightLoadHours
0%
11
Key Insight #8
Demand response appears cheaper than building new power plants
§  A contract to lower demand by businesses or consumers during peak hours
is called demand response.
HeaHngandCooling
DirectLoad
Control(DLC)and
Programmable
CommunicaHng
Thermostats
(PCT)
Season
WaterHeaBng
DLCand
AutomaBcWater
HeaterControls
Summer
and
Winter
SpaceCooling–CentralAirCondiBoning(CAC)
DLCandPCT
Summer
Only
SpaceCooling–RoomAirCondiBoning(RAC)
DLCandPCT
Summer
Only
ResidenHalDR
12
Key Insight #9
Current technologies cannot remove the last 30% of carbon emissions: That will
require emerging technologies: geothermal, nuclear, tidal, storage, smart grid,
wave….
EnhancedGeothermalSystems
SmallModularReactors
PotenBalInstalledCapacityby2035=5025MW
PotenBalInstalledCapacityby2035=2580MW
Year
Energy
(aMW)
Winter
Peak
(MW)
Summer
Peak
(MW)
RealLevelized
Cost(2012$/
MWh)
Energy
(aMW)
Winter
Peak
(MW)
Summer
Peak
(MW)
RealLevelized
Cost(2012$/
MWh)
2025
310
345
345
$102
513
520
520
$95
2030
1,485
1,650
1,650
$73
1,026
1,140
1,140
$88
2035
4,522
5,025
5,025
$58
2,053
2,280
2,280
$81
13
Questions
TomKarier
NWPowerandConservaBonCouncil
[email protected]
Spokane,WA
14