PRESS RELEASE
Brussels, 30 January 2017
Consumer price index of January 2017
Inflation rises to 2.65%
Annual update of the consumer price index
Consumer price index of January 2017
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Inflation has gone up to 2.65% in January from 2.03% in December.
The consumer price index this month has increased by 0.74 points or 0.71%.
Inflation based on the health index has increased to 2.18%, up from 1.78%.
The most significant price increases in January have been registered for motor fuels, holiday villages, electricity,
vegetables, domestic heating oil, alcoholic beverages, health insurance contribution, natural gas, water and
telecommunications services. The products with the largest downward pressure were airplane tickets.
Annual update of the consumer price index in 2017
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Update of the consumer price index in 2017 based on a unanimous opinion of the Index Commission,
approved by the Minister of Economy.
Further increase in the use of supermarket scanner data in the index calculation: from 70 product groups in
2016 to 73 product groups in 2017, representing 23% of the weight of the basket.
The index basket has been adjusted: 8 new products have been added to the basket and 2 products have been
merged into 1 product. The total for 2017 amounts to 663 goods and services compared to 656 in 2016.
The weights in the index basket, which are based on the household budget survey 2014, have been updated to
2016 in order to reflect the current pattern of expenditure of consumers.
Statistics Belgium
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Consumer price index of January 2017
The consumer price index amounts to 104.28 points in January 2017. The index has increased by 0.74 point over
the month. Inflation has edged up to 2.65% from 2.03%. The health index has gained 0.60 point to 104.65 points.
Inflation based on the health index has accelerated to 2.18%, up from 1.78%. The most significant price increases
this month have been registered for motor fuels, holiday villages, electricity, vegetables, domestic heating oil,
alcoholic beverages, health insurance contribution, natural gas, water and telecommunications services. These
have been partially compensated by price decreases for airplane tickets.
The consumer price index has risen by 0.74 points or 0.71% in January 2017 and now amounts to 104.28 points,
compared to 103.54 points in December 2016 (2013=100).
The health index has gone up by 0.60 points to 104.65 points in January, compared to 104.05 points in December.
The smoothed health index amounts to 102.05 points in January. The central index for public services and social
benefits, set at 103.04 points, has not been exceeded over the month. The last time the central index was exceeded
was in May 2016.
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3/12
Products with the largest increasing effect in January were motor fuels, holiday villages, electricity, vegetables,
domestic heating oil, alcoholic beverages, health insurance contribution, natural gas, water and
telecommunications services. Airplane tickets provided the largest downward pressure compared to last month.
The most important trends this month are:
Upward:
Motor fuels
Holiday villages
Electricity
Vegetables
Domestic heating oil
Alcoholic beverages
Health insurance contribution
Natural gas
Water
Telecommunications services
Effect:
+0.135 point
+0.105 point
+0.095 point
+0.055 point
+0.050 point
+0.045 point
+0.040 point
+0.040 point
+0.040 point
+0.035 point
Downward:
Airplane tickets
Effect:
-0.035 point
Motor fuels became on average 4.5% more expensive. After seasonal adjustment, holiday villages have been on
average 21.1% more expensive in January. Electricity became on average 2.0% more expensive. Prices for fresh
vegetables increased on average by 5.3% in January. Prices for domestic heating oil, calculated based on a
smoothed 12-month moving average, have gone up by 4.7%. Alcoholic beverages were on average 2.7% more
expensive over the month. The price of health insurance contribution increased by 3.7% on average. Natural gas
has gone up on average by 2.2% on average. Prices of water have increased on average by 5.5%. Prices for
telecommunications services have increased on average by 0.9%.
Prices for airplane tickets have gone down by 5.7% this month.
Inflation now amounts to 2.65% compared to 2.03% last month and 1.77% in November. Inflation based on the
health index was also on the rise and now stands at 2.18% compared to 1.78% in December and 1.65% in
November. Inflation without energy has gone up to 1.74% in January compared to 1.65% last month and 1.72% in
November. Core inflation, which does not take into account price evolutions of energy products and unprocessed
food, amounts to 1.54% in January, compared to 1.53% in December and 1.67% in November.
Inflation of food now amounts to 2.01%, compared to 1.94% last month and 2.06% in November. Fish and shellfish
prices are now 10.6% higher than in January last year. Within this product group, fresh fish and shellfish have
increased in price by respectively 13.1% and 23.1% compared with January 2016. Oils and fats have gone up by
7.7% in a year. Fruit now costs 1.5% more than in January 2016. Vegetable prices are also on the rise: 12.4% on an
annual basis. Non-alcoholic beverages now cost 0.3% less than in January 2015. For alcoholic beverages, consumers
now have to pay 0.8% more than in January last year. Tobacco now costs 5.8% more than in January last year.
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4/12
Energy inflation is now running at 11.18%, up from 5.49% in December and 2.24% in November. This is the highest
inflation level for this product group since February 2012, when it amounted to 12.83%. Electricity is now 19.4%
more expensive than a year ago. By contrast, natural gas now costs 2.1% less than in January 2016. Prices for
domestic heating oil, calculated based on a smoothed 12-month moving average, have declined by 8.4% over a
year. Motor fuels are now 18.5% more expensive than a year ago. Inflation for services has increased to 2.39% from
2.09%. Especially telecommunications services (6.4%), transport services (3.7%) and restaurants and bars (3.2%)
experienced a high inflation rate. Inflation for rents increased to 0.94% from 0.89% last month.
2013 = 100
October 2016
November 2016
December 2016
January 2017
Consumer price index
103.34
103.41
103.54
104.28
Inflation rate
1.81%
1.77%
2.03%
2.65%
Health index
103.86
103.97
104.05
104.65
Smoothed health index *
101.78
101.79
101.81
102.05
* defined in the law of 23 April 2015 on the promotion of employment (Belgian Official Journal of 27 April 2015)
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Annual update in January 2017
What does the consumer price index update of January 2017 imply?
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The use of supermarket scanner data in the index calculation will be continued and expanded to a limited
extent.
The index basket has been adjusted: 8 new products have been added to the basket.
The weights in the index basket, which are based on the household budget survey 2014, have been
updated to 2016 in order to reflect the current pattern of expenditure of consumers.
Why update the consumer price index annually?
The consumer price index (CPI) with reference year 2013 = 100, which was introduced in January 2014, is updated
in January of each year. The purpose of the annual updates is to keep the index representative throughout the
years and to avoid misrepresenting measured inflation as the index dates. This can be achieved by keeping the
product basket up-to-date, adjusting calculation methods, integrating new price sources and by keeping the shop
sample representative.
Will the base year or reference year also change?
The most recent index reform of January 2014 implied a switch from an index with fixed base year to a chain index.
The reference year is still 2013 = 100, which will also be the case in the following years. The annual updates
therefore do not require adjustments of the selected reference year.
In the chain index method, the prices of the 12 months of the current year are compared with the prices of
December of the previous year. When multiplying these short-term series with each other - to form a chain – it
results in a long-term series with a fixed reference period.
What role doe the Index Commission and the Minister of Economy play in this?
The Index Commission is a commission composed equally of academics and employee and employer associations.
The commission is supported by statisticians of Statistics Belgium. It advises the Minister of Economy on consumer
price index matters and also issues a monthly advice on the index calculated by Statistics Belgium. The Index
Commission issued a unanimous opinion to the Minister of Economy on 23 December 2016. The Minister
completely agreed with the opinion. Afterwards, the administration uses the new method for its calculations.
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6/12
What are scanner data or cash register scanner data?
Scanner data are the cash register scanner data from supermarkets aggregated to product level. They should not
be confused with the individual cash register receipts of each customer. Currently the administration receives these
aggregated sales data at product level, i.e. per bar code, on a weekly basis from the three largest supermarket
chains. The plan is to receive scanner data from other chains as well.
For what product groups are scanner data used?
Scanner data have been integrated in phases in the CPI from 2015 onward, with 70 product groups being integrated
in January 2016. These product groups include products that can be bought in supermarkets. 3 additional product
groups are followed with scanner data from January 2017 onward, i.e. accessories for home and garden, stationery
and drawing materials These add up to a total of 73 product groups, representing 23% of the weight in the index
basket.
Product groups that will use scanner data from January 2017 onward
COICOP
01
02
05.5.2.2
05.6.1
09.3.4.2
09.5.4
12.1.3
Description
Food and non-alcoholic beverages
Alcoholic beverages and tobacco
Miscellaneous small tool accessories
Non-durable household goods
Products for pets
Stationery and drawing materials
Articles and products for personal care
Total
Number of groups Weight
56
16.4%
9
2.5%
1
0.3%
2
1.1%
1
0.7%
2
0.3%
1.7%
2
73
23.0%
To what extent are traditional price recordings in shops still used for the product groups
mentioned above?
Since we currently do not have scanner data yet from hard discounters their prices will still be registered in the
traditional way. The scanner data of food products are supplemented by traditional price recordings at bakers,
butchers and fish shops. The price recordings are aggregated based on consumers' purchasing behaviour, as
registered in the household budget survey. Prices are of course also registered for non-food products in other store
chains than the chains that provide scanner data.
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7/12
What are the advantages of the use of scanner data?
The accuracy of the CPI will be improved, since scanner data at product level, i.e. per bar code, include information
on the number of items sold and turnover. Per product, an average price can be calculated for each month. This is
done by dividing the turnover by the number of items sold for each bar code.
This means that it is no longer necessary to base the price index for a product group on a limited number of
products for which the representativeness for the entire group needs to be estimated. This new method results in
an index that more closely matches actual consumption habits. Traditional price observations in shops are still
partially necessary for the other supermarket chains and retail shops for which scanner data are not yet available to
obtain a reliable image of the total price evolution in Belgium.
The traditional system without scanner data meant that for the 73 product groups a total of 244 representative
items or products would have to be followed. These products furthermore would need to meet a relatively strict
definition. However the price evolution of all products of these 73 product groups with representative sales figures
are followed monthly, resulting in a sizeable increase in representativeness for these groups.
A simple example to illustrate: until the end of 2015, the price evolution for one product from the group 'sugar' was
followed (albeit for different brands and different points of sale), namely granulated sugar in 1 kg packaging. From
January 2016 price evolutions are followed for all types of sugar and packagings with representative sales figures.
This means that in addition to the price evolution for granulated sugar, price evolutions for sugar cubes, cane sugar,
sugar candy, brown sugar, powdered sugar, liquid sugar,... are measured and included in the index for 'sugar'. This
is done for different packagings (250 g, 500 g, 750 g, 1 kg,...). This method obviously benefits the
representativeness of the index for these groups.
Is the CPI influenced by changes in purchase behaviour when using scanner data?
The price index based on scanner data will, as before, always contain the price evolution of an identical product
(e.g. a 33 cl can of lemonade from brand A in supermarket X) in a certain month compared to its price in the
previous month. Each time, own-brand budget products, regular own-brand products and well-known brand
products are followed in the index, assuming that they achieve representative sales figures in the period under
review.
However, a misconception is to assume that, when using scanner data, an increase in consumption of, for example,
cheaper products at the expense of more expensive products would result in an index decrease or vice versa.
Changes in consumption habits will not affect the measured price evolution. After all, at product level (bar code
level), sold volumes or turnover are not taken into account when aggregating the different products to an index for
a product group. The aggregate is an unweighted geometric mean.
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8/12
What changes have been made in the index basket?
Adding or removing representative items and adjusting the weights allow the index basket to reflect the current
consumption patterns. Eight new representative items (of products) have been added to the index basket. No
representative items have been removed. Two 'old' representative items have been merged: game console is a
merge of the old representative items 'game console ' and 'mobile game console'. From 2017 onward, the basket
consists of 663 representative items, compared to 656 in 2016. Finally, besides the integration of two old
representative items, one product, i.e. the day care centres, has undergone a change of definition.
It should be noted that, by switching to scanner data for 73 product groups, the number of 663 representative
items is a strong underestimate of the products that are actually followed. After all, due to the far-reaching
implementation of scanner data all representative products sold are covered for the complete groups of food,
drinks, tobacco, cleaning and maintenance products and products for personal care. The concept of 'representative
items' therefore loses much of its meaning; in reality a multiple of these 663 representative items are followed.
The following table summarises the changes made to the basket.
COICOP
Name
New representative items
07.3.1.1.11
09.1.3.4.01
09.2.2.1.02
09.4.1.2.07
09.5.1.2.01
09.6.0.1.03
11.1.1.2.07
12.7.0.2.03
Train journey abroad
Smartwatch
Synthesizer
Music lesson
Textbooks for higher and university education
Nature classes
Meal box
Lawyer fees
Definition changes
09.3.1.1.01
12.4.0.1.01
Game console is a merge of the old representative items 'game console ' and
'mobile game console'.
Nursery schools: private nursery schools are added to nursery schools that are
recognized and subsidized by the Flemish Community (Kind en Gezin) and the
French Community (O.N.E.)
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9/12
On what basis are representative items added ?
Adding representative items is of course not done arbitrarily. Many reasons add to the decision:
 expansion based on the relative importance of the product group the product is a part of: if there are
relatively few representative items in the basket for an important weight, representative items can be
added: this is for example the case for the group of 'sports and recreational events', which already included
among others membership fees for sport clubs and youth movements, and which is expanded from 6 to 7
representative items, though addition of the 'music lesson';
 Addition based on consumer purchase behaviour: the 'meal box' is added to the group 'fast food and takeaway meals';
 Some groups with a very low weight which have not been followed up to now : for example, the group
09.5.1.2 'educational books', for which the price evolution of 'textbooks for higher and university education'
is followed;
 there are also groups with a very low weight, for which there had been only one representative item until
now, for example the group 09.2.2.1 'musical instruments'. For the representativeness of the group the
‘synthesizer’ was added to the already followed representative item 'guitar'.
Why is the weighting scheme being renewed?
As in 2014, the weighting scheme is composed according to the new European ECOICOP nomenclature. This
European 'Classification of Individual Consumption by Purpose' (COICOP) is a classification consisting of 12 main
groups.
The idea is that the weighting scheme of the consumer price index matches the pattern of expenditure of an
average household as closely as possible. It is based on the household budget survey, a two-yearly survey that
analyses the patterns of expenditure of the households. This weighting scheme is therefore each time based on the
most recent household budget survey, i.e. currently that of 2014. In order to reflect the current pattern of
expenditure of consumers, the weights, which are currently based on the household budget survey 2014, are
updated to 2016 through a so-called price update. The price update of weights is based on the price evolution
between 2014 and 2016. It makes that the current patterns of expenditure of the households are systematically
used for the index calculation.
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10/12
What does the new weighting scheme look like?
The chart below displays the weightings of the twelve main groups in 2015, 2016 and 2017.
This first COICOP group level consisting of twelve main groups is subdivided into three lower group classifications,
and the fifth level is the level of the representative items.
The annex to this press release contains the 2017 weighting scheme and the weights used in 2015 and 2016. The
weighting scheme is always published up to the lowest COICOP group level.
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11/12
How is the weighting scheme composed in practice?
To compose the 2017 weighting scheme, new representative items and groups were added to the 2016 index
basket.
Since the weighting scheme is based on the household budget survey held in 2014, the weights are updated to
2016 in order to correctly measure the price evolution in 2017. After all, since a chain index is used, in which the
prices of the twelve months of the current year are compared with December of the previous year, the weighting
scheme needs to be adjusted annually based on the price evolution between the year in which the values are
expressed to the same year as the reference month. This procedure is known in professional literature as the 'price
update' of weights.
The price update of weights means that the values of the weighting scheme, based on household expenses in 2014,
are updated to 2016 based on the index evolution of each group, since December 2016 is the new reference
month. The original weight (referring to 2014) is taken for each group, multiplied by the December 2016 index, and
divided by the general index of December 2014.
This is done for all groups, except for energy (with the exception of domestic heating oil, which is smoothed),
airplane tickets and fresh vegetables, fresh fruit and fresh fish (groups with a seasonal pattern). Instead of the
indices of December 2014 and December 2016 they use the annual averages of 2014 and 2016. This method avoids
a distortion of the price update due to possible strong monthly differences.
After these calculations the results are rescaled to convert the total weight again to 1000‰.
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12/12
Additional information
For more information, please contact Stephan Moens:
☎ +32 (0)2/277.63.47
[email protected]
Source
Statistics Belgium
Additional figures
Tables with detailed data can be found on:
http://statbel.fgov.be/nl/statistieken/cijfers/economie/consumptieprijzen/
Consumer price index in open data format
Statistics Belgium also offers the consumer price index in open data format.
The general file contains the general consumer price index from 1920 onward.
The second file contains an overview of the indices from 1998 onward of the
twelve main groups according to the COICOP classification.
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Consumer price index, general: from 1920 onward
Consumer price index, per group: from 1998 onward
Statistics Belgium
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