Scoping study on: "Main challenges and impact of
emerging and generic technologies at the European and
global levels and their policy implications"
Final Report
ORKESTRA-Basque Institute of Competitiveness
Bart Kamp
V1 – 31/01/2012
1
Table of Contents
Introduction ..................................................................................................................... 3
1.
Establishment of relevant criteria to trace emerging and generic technologies ...... 5
1.1.
Operationalizing “generic” technologies ........................................................... 5
1.1.1.
“Key” as an underpinning variable for “generic” ........................................ 5
1.1.2.
“Enabling” as an underpinning variable for “generic” ................................ 6
1.2.
Operationalizing “emerging” technologies ........................................................ 6
1.3.
Synthesis ........................................................................................................ 10
2.
Methods and sources used for mapping of emerging and generic technologies .. 11
3.
Assessment of generic and emerging character of technologies .......................... 19
4. Policy challenges and implications in view of furthering emerging and generic
technologies.................................................................................................................. 34
5. Propositions to come to a systematic future scanning on emerging and generic
technologies.................................................................................................................. 38
2
Introduction
The present document responds to the request of the European Commission, DG for
Research & Innovation, Directorate C – Research and Innovation, C.2 – Relations with
stakeholders (ERIAB) to obtain a scoping study on the subject of "Main challenges and
impact of emerging and generic technologies at the European and global levels and
their policy implications". Its findings are deemed to provide ERIAB, possibly the future
European Forum on Forward Looking Activities (EFFLA), and the research policy
community with instrumental knowledge in its advisory capacity for an effective
implementation of the Innovation Union strategy.
As a consequence, this assignment aligns with the EC Communication "Preparing for
our future: Developing a common strategy for key enabling technologies in the EU"
(2009), where it was argued that the EU should facilitate the industrial deployment of
Key Enabling Technologies (KETs) in order to make its industries more innovative and
globally competitive.
Since the tender specifications refer both to the adjectives “emerging” and “generic”,
we start by clarifying the positioning of this study and the kind of technologies it focuses
on.
Emerging technologies refer to technologies that are currently not mature or ready
enough for market uptake, but with a high probability of leading to new products and
applications for market development in a time span of approximately 10 years.1 In this
regard, the Horizon 2020 document speaks of “future and emerging technologies”,
when referring to radically new technologies that stem from novel and high risk ideas
building upon scientific foundations, and which have the potential develop into leading
technological paradigms for the decades ahead.2
Generic technologies refer to technologies that are relevant and have implications
across a range of applications, industries and sectors of the economy and or society.
As such, we argue, they are related to the concept of “key enabling” technologies. Key
Enabling Technologies (KETs) are knowledge and capital intensive technologies,
associated with high research and development (R&D) intensity, rapid and integrated
innovation cycles, high capital expenditure and highly-skilled employment. Their
influence is pervasive, enabling process, product and service innovation throughout the
economy.3 They are of systemic relevance, multidisciplinary and trans-sectoral, cutting
across many technology areas with a trend towards convergence, technology
1
US Department of Commerce, Technology Administration Division.
Communication from the Commission COM (2011) 808 / Proposal for a Council decision COM
(2011) 811, Horizon 2020 - The Framework Programme for Research and Innovation, Brussels,
30/11/201.
3
The EC Communication "Preparing for our future: Developing a common strategy for key
enabling technologies in the EU" COM (2009) 512 points at advanced materials,
nanotechnology, micro- and nano-electronics, biotechnology, photonics and advanced
manufacturing systems as KETs for improving European industrial competitiveness.
2
3
integration and the potential to induce structural change.4 In a similar vein, the Europe
2020 Innovation Union Strategy emphasized that KETs have a pervasive effect on
technological progress and product development potential and can be “key enablers”
for unlocking socio-economic growth, for addressing grand societal challenges, and set
the scene for new industrial eras.
Consequently, in what follows we will focus on technologies that are both emerging and
powerful in nature and can either develop growth paths and technological
breakthroughs in their own right or through transversal connections and applications
with related technologies as per their generic or key enabling character.
The rest of this document is structured as follows:
(1) Establish relevant criteria to select and sort emerging and generic technologies
(outline of the selection process in Chapter 1)
(2) Adhering to the selected criteria; conduct desk research to see which emerging and
generic technologies are on the horizon, and which applications they may hold in store
(identification process in Chapter 2)
(3) Flesh out the subsequent sample of emerging and generic technologies in terms of
their economic and social relevance and technological maturity (characterization of
technologies in Chapter 3)
(4) Point out challenges and implications of these technologies for policy makers
(policy assessment in Chapter 4)
(5) Issue propositions to come to a systematic future scanning on emerging and
generic technologies (suggestions on systemizing technology analysis in Chapter 5)
4
See e.g.: High Level Expert Group on KETs, Working Document, Brussels, 7 February 2011
(p. 3); and Commission Staff Working Document accompanying the EC Communication
"Preparing for our future: Developing a common strategy for key enabling technologies in the
EU" COM (2009) 512 (p. 2).
4
1. Establishment of relevant criteria to trace
emerging and generic technologies
In order to identify emerging and generic technologies, a first step is to operationalize
the terms “emerging” and “generic”.
1.1. Operationalizing “generic” technologies
To give meaning to the adjective ‘generic’, we relate to the concept of “key enabling”
technologies.
1.1.1. “Key” as an underpinning variable for “generic”
To give meaning to the term “key” from a technological point-of-view, we reason as
follows:
On the one hand, the technologies in question should be relevant to a variety of
industrial and economic sectors, either through holding in store a major potential for
(job) growth, competitiveness enhancement, cost and input reductions in existing
industries or for unlocking new economic activities or product/service markets.
I.e., they should have a transversal character and be relevant for multiple industries
with the consequent potential to stimulate substantial economic activity and or to make
such economic activity more competitive and or efficient.
Thus, they should demonstrate economic relevance.
On the other hand, the technologies in question should have the potential to
contribute to addressing a variety of major societal challenges in a more effective and
or efficient way.5 I.e., challenges such as:









ageing population and health concerns,
climate change,
energy and water supply,
scarcity of resources,
demographic changes,
security affairs,
supply and quality of food,
environmentally-friendly and sustainable production methods,
land management.
Thus, they should be relevant for dealing with societal challenges,
5
See also «Technology Assessment» research traditions (Coates, 1976; Leyten, Smits and
Geurts, 1985; Schot and Rip, 1997) and the Lund Declaration (Europe must focus on the Grand
Challenges of our Time. The Lund Declaration - se2009.eu), stating that RTI systems and
European Research should be oriented towards the grand and global challenges of our time.
5
Take note that from a societal perspective on technologies, the following issues may be
of concern as intervening variables:
-
Whether the technologies will engender public debate and ethical concerns
The political will to further the technology as expressed by the means made
available to profound in the matter (as per dedicated research budgets and
creation of research / technology centres)
“Key” is thus interpreted as technologies addressing (societal) problems in such a way
they create (socio-economic) opportunities, as emphasised in the Innovation Union
Initiative.
1.1.2. “Enabling” as an underpinning variable for “generic”
Enabling, as per technologies, stands for the potential that a technology provides
(either on its own or in combination with other technologies to be associated and
combined to it) to generate giant leaps in e.g. productivity, versatility, reliability, quality
and or speed, and thus to increase the performance and capabilities of the deploying
industries.
In other words, it stands for the leverage effects it can bring about (isolated or via
underpinning and or linking / integration with other technologies) through its application
in industries.
Another facet of “enabling” and the versatile uptake possibilities they offer, is that they
offer give way to the development of subsequent derivative technologies (compare with
“spin-offs” in the business realm), often in diverse fields.
1.2. Operationalizing “emerging” technologies
To give meaning to the adjective ‘emerging’ we argue that technologies have to be in
an early stage of development, need substantial further development and capacity
building, and will most likely only come to applicability and practical uptake in a time
span of minimum 5 to 10 years.
I.e., they should be in an early stage of development, with substantial further
development needed, and with the possibility to advance to a technological readiness
stage in 5-10 years.
As such, this criterion is notably a matter of:
-
the stage of development in which they find themselves (theoretical/conceptual
stage; research stage; experimental stage; developmental stage; (near)
commercialization stage)
the speed of advancement along those stages (low/medium/high) as a function
of:
6
o
-
research progress to be expected with regard to the concerned
technology and
o the capability of (Europe’s) industry to take up and further the
technology in question
as a further proxy in this regard one can point at the degree with which
technologies are not yet on the radar of (European) policy makers and policy
documents, especially from an industry perspective. I.e, technologies that
require a (technology) push rather than a “demand pull” to move forward.
Take note that such ‘emerging’ technologies do not have to be completely new
technologies. They may instead stem from processes of ‘convergence’ between
existing scientific and research disciplines that give way to ‘integrated’ technologies in
fields where hitherto their uptake and penetration was not possible. Such convergence
gives a higher speed to technological changes and allows new developments and
applications.6 For instance, by connecting insights from Nano and Bio Sciences and
blend them into medical technologies. Also Robotics are seen as a good example of
this convergence of technologies (Moravec, 1999).
As a last point to assess the emerging character of a technology, it is useful to refer to
the concept of “Technology Readiness” and levels of “Technology Readiness”.7 This
concept is used to assess the maturity of emerging technologies (materials,
components, devices, etc.) before such a technology can be incorporated into a system
or is ready for full-fledged production.
Generally speaking, when a new technology is first invented or conceptualized, it is not
suitable for immediate application. Instead, new technologies are usually subjected
to experimentation, refinement, and increasingly realistic testing. Once the technology
is sufficiently proven, it can be incorporated into a system/subsystem and be prepared
for marketable applications. Below we present the classification as used by the US
Department of Energy (2009):
6
See also Roco and Bainbridge (2002), who refer to the so-called NBIC Technologies. I.e.,
technologies that lean on at least 2 of the following scientific / research fields: nanotech,
biotech, cognitive science and information technology.
This is also due to follow from a more integrative and hybrid approach to addressing grand
challenges. I.e., by crossing boundaries between engineering and natural sciences, on the one
hand, and social sciences and humanities, on the other, in dealing with issues that both have a
social and a technical dimension.
7
See also the Final Report of the EC-appointed High Level Group on KETs (June 2011).
7
Technology
Readiness
Level
Description
TRL 1
Scientific research begins translation to applied R&D - Lowest level of
technology readiness. Scientific research begins to be translated into applied
research and development. Examples might include paper studies of a
technology’s basic properties.
TRL 2
Invention begins - Once basic principles are observed, practical applications
can be invented. Applications are speculative and there may be no proof or
detailed analysis to support assumptions. Examples limited to analytic studies.
TRL 3
Active R&D is initiated - Active research and development is initiated. This
includes analytical studies and laboratory studies to physically validate
analytical predictions of separate elements of the technology. Examples
include components that are not yet integrated or representative.
TRL 4
Basic technological components are integrated - Basic technological
components are integrated to establish that the pieces will work together.
TRL 5
Fidelity of breadboard technology improves significantly - The basic
technological components are integrated with reasonably realistic supporting
elements so it can be tested in a simulated environment. Examples include
“high fidelity” laboratory integration of components.
TRL 6
Model/prototype is tested in relevant environment - Representative model or
prototype system, which is well beyond that of TRL 5, is tested in a relevant
environment. Represents a major step up in a technology’s demonstrated
readiness. Examples include testing a prototype in a high-fidelity laboratory
environment or in simulated operational environment.
TRL 7
Prototype near or at planned operational system - Represents a major step up
from TRL 6, requiring demonstration of an actual system prototype in an
operational environment.
TRL 8
Technology is proven to work - Actual technology completed and qualified
through test and demonstration.
TRL 9
Actual application of technology is in its final form - Technology proven through
successful operations.
8
In general, any technology below level 6 is considered as immature by the US
administrations applying this scale and such technologies are thus in need of further
development and experimentation (in other words: in need of a further research push).
Drawn up in a comparable fashion, the scales of « Technology Readiness » presented
in the Final Report of the HLG on KETs (June 2011) looks as follows:
Technology Readiness Level
Description
TRL 1
Basic principles observed and reported
TRL 2
Technology concept and or application formulated
TRL 3
Analytical and experimental critical function and or
characteristic proof-of-concept
TRL 4
Technology validation in laboratory environment
TRL 5
Technology validation in a relevant environment
TRL 6
Technology demonstration in a relevant environment
TRL 7
TRL 8
TRL 9
Technology prototype demonstration in an operational
environment
Actual technology system completed and qualified
through test and demonstration
Actual technology system qualified through successful
mission operations
In a similar manner, the FESTOS FP7 project (« Foresight of Evolving Security Threats
Posed by Emerging Technologies »)8 conducted a survey among technology experts
asking them about :
"When will technology X be sufficiently mature to be used in practice?"
With "Sufficiently mature" meaning that the technology had at least been
demonstrated and validated outside the laboratory, through testing of prototypes. At
that point, a technology reaches a level that is similar to TRL-5 or higher on the
"Technology Readiness Scale".
In Chapter 3 we will source from the appraisals per technology that followed from that
FESTOS FP7 survey to assess the degree of maturity of technologies and how
« emerging » they are.
8
http://www.sicherheitsforschungeuropa.de/servlet/is/14805/FESTOS%20Final%20report%20on%20potentially%20threatening%
20technologies.pdf?command=downloadContent&filename=FESTOS%20Final%20report%20o
n%20potentially%20threatening%20technologies.pdf
9
1.3. Synthesis
Technologies that qualify on/adhere to the sub-criteria forwarded to operationalize:


“Generic”
o “Key”:
 relevant from a social and economic viewpoint,
 relevant to the grand challenges of our time,
o “Enabling”:
 transversal character, ability to unlock structural and pervasive
changes across industries,
 potential to generate leverage effects in terms of performance
and capabilities across different industrial sectors
 potential to integrate and induce convergence of several
technological fields
“Emerging”
o Low/medium level of readiness and maturity towards broad-based
uptake
are technologies that have an emerging and generic nature, and whose industrial
deployment arguably requires facilitation and thus, in case of interest in furthering
them, deserve institutional back-up and sufficient early-stage attention from (European)
policy makers.
In the following we provide an overview of such emerging and generic technologies.
10
2. Methods and sources used for mapping of
emerging and generic technologies
To detect technologies that can be labelled as emerging and generic technologies,
desk-top research has been conducted reviewing notably material from:
Divulgative
sources with
technological
forecast specials
Specialized
institutes in Future
and Foresight
Research
Specialized
institutes in
Technology
Assessment
Specialized
technology
journals, research
projects and
events
Divulgative sources with specials on economic and technological outlooks and
foresights:



The Economist
The Guardian
Millenium Project - http://www.millennium-project.org/
Specialized Institutes in Future and Foresight Research:

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
RAND (Europe / US)
Institute for the Future (Palo Alto, US)
Finland Futures Research Centre (FI)
Copenhagen Institute for Future Studies (DK)
Fondation Prospective et Innovation (FR)
Institute for Prospective Technological Studies (IPTS) at the Joint Research
Centre,
Sevilla
(ES):
http://foresight.jrc.ec.europa.eu/fta_2011/Programmeandpapers.htm
11
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
National Institute of Science and Technology Policy (NISTEP), Future
Technology in Japan toward the year 2030, Science and Technology Foresight
Centre, Japan: www.nistep.go.jp
Congressional research service (US): www.crs.gov
The Royal Society (UK): www.royalsociety.org
National Intelligence Council (US): www.cia.gov/nic
US National Science Foundation – www.wtec.org/
Foresight Horizon Scanning Centre, Government Office for Science (UK) :
http://www.bis.gov.uk/foresight
Fraunhofer
Institute
(DE):
http://www.bmbf.de/pubRD/ForesightProcess_BMBF_New_future_fields.pdf
Specialized institutes in Technology Assessment:



Swiss Centre for Technology Assessment: http://www.ta-swiss.ch/en/
Austrian
Institute
of
Technology
Assessment:
http://www.oeaw.ac.at/ita/welcome.htm
European
Parliament
Technology
Assessment
network:
http://www.eptanetwork.org/
Specialized journals, research projects and conferences on the subject matter:
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Technological Forecasting and Social Change: An International Journal
The International Journal of Forecasting
Futures: The Journal of Policy, Planning and Future Studies
World Future Review: A Journal of Strategic Foresight
Technology Review
Journal of Evolution & Technology
The Futurist Magazine
Science
Nature
European FP7 and INFSO projects, e.g.: FESTOS; SMART; input reports to
High Level Group on KETs
Focus
events
and
conferences,
e.g.:
http://www.fumat2011.eu/Default.aspx?id=1;
http://www.techconnectworld.com/Nanotech2012/
Through reviewing and cross-comparing these sources, an overview of technologies
arises as presented in the table on the next pages. I.e. technologies that are seen as
likely to emerge, with a considerable impact on economic and societal life, and for
which there is still room for increased policy attention and support action.
12
Emerging and
Generic
Technology
Advanced
manufacturing and
operating systems
Atomically
precise
manufacturing
(APM)
Swarm robotics
Nano-robotics
Characterization
These systems denote the range of high technologies involved in
manufacturing, which mark the path towards improvements and
sophistication of product properties, architecture and (molecular) buildup, production speed, cost, energy and materials consumption,
operating precision, waste and pollution management.
Molecular and additive manufacturing is an anticipated future
technology based on the concept of 3-D printers that are arising at
present, notably to build prototypes and scale models. The vision is
that these micro-manufacturing concepts can become much more
widespread at either household level and or at large-scale production
sites spread out over the globe producing on demand items in the
vicinity of their consumers. Such machines and factories would not
only be able to build complex products, but also additional molecular
and additive manufacturing machines (incl. nanomachines)
themselves. 9
Refers to the deployment of sets of robots in dangerous or remote
areas and operations, such as firefighting, rescuing persons, removal
of hazardous waste, and deep water exploration.
It attempts to establish a coordinated approach to the deployment and
functioning of large numbers of robots, inspired by the behaviour of
swarms in nature, e.g. social insects that show how a large number of
simple individuals can interact to create collectively intelligent systems.
As humans are not suited to manipulate things on a very small scale,
nano-robotics is about the aspiration to create robots that, e.g. in the
medical field (in the form of nano-robots), should be able to reach
hidden places in the body (or places that are difficult to operate via
human-led surgery) and carry out operations in a more targeted and
precise manner.
As such, the medical nano-robot –as well as nano-impellers- can be
seen as the ultimate tool of nano-medicine (see infra). Nano-impellers
are light-powered nano-machines that can operate inside living cells
and they open up a new avenue for e.g. drug delivery.
9
This promises to bring great improvements in the cost and performance of manufactured
goods, while making possible a range of products impossible today. It would also crank up the
speed of delivery of products and produce according to user-specifications (less waste) and
from the logistically most convenient point (less traffic implications). Cfr. failed attempts with the
3-day car concept since around the turn of the century.
13
Cognitive
technologies
Semantic
web
search engines
/
Cognitive technologies are about engineering general intelligence:
autonomous, self-reflective, self-improving, and “common-sensical”.
Internet-based storage services link together datasets from individual
computers over ubiquitous networks. Searching the aggregate of these
services—the web: “internet”, and cloud: “outernet”— via semantic
search tools will be fundamentally important for enhanced pattern
recognition and data mining.
The issue is that computers would become capable of analyzing all the
data on the web and in the cloud (the content, links, and transactions
between people and computers) and come to more complete,
comprehensive and targeted search and analytical processes, as
opposed to the current tendencies to get to incomplete, less directed
and information overload-prone operations on the web.
The semantic web thus aims to facilitate sharing and reuse of data
across disciplines and spheres of application, with emphasis on
combining data drawn from different sources. It is basically an effort to
make electronic information meaningful across the technical jargon of
different disciplines and between human- and machine-readable
languages, thereby enabling data to be extracted for use in
applications across many sectors.
Artificial intelligence
(AI)
Biotech & healthcare
Synthetic biology /
Synthetic genomics
Regenerative
medicine / tissue
engineering
Artificial
photosynthesis
Industrial Biotech
Enzymes and microorganisms
Semantic search engines would also be able to make more sense out
of and link up (un)related terms that refer to similar phenomena c.q.
with shared semantics, that way providing more targeted information
bases.
Computers, robots and other devices may come to possess social
skills, emotions and associative and spontaneous capacities rendering
human characteristics to them and thus make for better humanmachine interactions and coordination. I.e. the integration of human
thought into electronic systems for perceiving, processing, presenting
and acting upon information and impulses.
The design and construction of new biological parts, devices and
systems, and the redesign of existing natural biological systems. F.i.,
the creation of “programmable” species of bacteria and other life forms,
or of parts and devices of organisms which perform a new function.
Essentially it is about redesigning life forms and goes beyond genetic
engineering as mapping genomes and manipulating genes.
This discipline advances primarily on the regeneration, replacement or
repair of existing tissues and organs. In the case of regenerative
medicine, this is typically based on the use of stem cells.
Artificial photosynthesis is a way to mimic the photosynthesis of plants
artificially, circumventing the expense in time and material (and space)
that growing a plant takes. The energy derived from artificial
photosynthesis can be used directly to create a fuel: hydrogen gas.
This hydrogen gas is made by sunlight and water, using
photochemistry (as such it is kind of a fusion tech between
biotechnology and climate engineering).
Industrial Biotech is the application of biotechnology for the industrial
processing and production of chemicals, materials and fuels.
Industrial biotech centres heavily around the practice of using microorganisms or components of micro-organisms, like enzymes.
14
Climate or Geoengineering
Geo-engineering (or Climate Engineering) is a general term for
deliberate large-scale interventions in (bio-) geochemical processes of
the earth in order to counteract a possible global warming.
In addition to efforts made to reduce greenhouse gas emissions
(mitigation strategies) and to adapt to the climate change (adaptation
strategies), proponents propagate geo-engineering interventions as a
complementary or alternative climate protection strategy or as one that
is to be applied in case of an emergency.
Carbon
removal
dioxide
Solar
radiation
management
Brain-Computer
Interface and
Neurotechnology
Electro-EncephaloGraphy (EEG)
Neuro-informatics
The proposed concepts can be divided into two large groups (see
hereafter).
On the one hand, there are interventions in the CO2 cycle (Carbon
Dioxide Removal, CDR) are conceivable in order to decrease the
atmospheric content of carbon dioxide and thus to mitigate the
greenhouse effect.
On the other, the idea is to influence the global radiation budget (Solar
Radiation Management, SRM) in such a way that either less solar
radiation strikes the Earth or that a larger part of the impinging
radiation is reflected.
Brain-Computer Interface (BCI) research deals with establishing
communication pathways between the brain and external devices. BCI
systems can be broadly classified depending on the placement of the
electrodes used to detect and measure neurons firing in the brain: in
invasive systems, electrodes or implants are inserted directly into the
cortex; in non-invasive systems, they are placed on the scalp and use
electroencephalography or electrocorticography to detect neuron
activity.
EEG is the study of how brain activity excites neurons to emit brain
waves. It enables the creation of Brain wave-led electronic devices and
Brain-computer interfaces (BCI) that establish communication and
command pathways between the brain and external (electronic)
devices.
Applications here are mind-uploading, brain implants and neuroprotheses.
15
Photonics
Scanning, sensing
and imaging
Information,
communication and
networks
Screens and
displays
Advanced lighting
Photonic energy
systems
Laser systems
Photonics is a multidisciplinary domain dealing with the science and
technology of light, encompassing its generation, detection and
management.
This cluster includes sensory devices for the measurement of physical
properties and conversion to a signal that can be read by observers or
other instruments.
An interesting (medical) device in this regard is lens-free imaging
systems, which are able to find and recognize the shadows of T cells
and bacteria. It is capable of counting and identifying a wide variety of
micro-particles within a sample solution almost instantaneously.
This field involves photonic technologies behind the high speed data
transmission of data that form the backbone of the modern
Information/knowledge society. E.g., to raise the performance of
information and communication networks in terms of data storage and
conduction capacities. Principal research areas in this regard are
focused on understanding the characteristics of ultra high speed data
through optical cables and optical media. Connected to this, also
research is conducted on the further miniaturization of optic devices
and optoelectronics and on alternative data transmission systems with
improved energy efficiency.
Displays are critical for the presentation and visualization of
information both for leisure and business purposes. The technologies
behind 2 and 3 dimensional displays of all sizes focus mainly on flat
screen displays, but also on head-mounted and projection displays.
This concerns the shift from traditional light bulbs to LED-based solid
state lighting. Applications extend from basic domestic, retail and
industrial lighting, to automotive and street lighting as well as advanced
adaptive lighting, and specialist lighting (e.g. surgical theatre lighting
and photo-dynamic therapy).
Here the most exemplary application are photovoltaic technologies,
which are more and more seen as a widely applicable long term
sustainable energy source.
Lasers vary widely from the very low power lasers used in bar code
scanning to very high power lasers (as e.g. used in manufacturing
processes), which also encompass laser types based on diode and
non-diode systems.
Applications vary from systems for manufacturing (e.g. welding and
marking), lasers for surgery, lasers in defence (e.g. ranging and
weaponry) and lasers used in scientific research and development.
16
Advanced Materials
The term “advanced materials” leaves room for interpretation on what
to include and what not, but an overview with authority typically comes
from the Nanotech conference which will be organized in 2012 in
California. To see which materials are included there, we refer to the
corresponding appendix at the end of this report.
Take note that many of these materials lay the basis or form part of
technologies that are treated elsewhere in this table, as per: photonics,
biomedicine and nano-technologies, and applications like: solar cells,
OLED / LED technology, hydrogen storage, photovoltaics, spintronics,
tissue engineering and battery devices.
Graphene10
Nano-technology
Nano-tech
renewable
purposes
for
energy
In the opposite direction, we can also signal that many advanced and
novel materials can also greatly benefit from the integration of e.g.
biotech and nano-technology.
Graphenes are made up of carbon atoms arranged in a honeycomb
network that have weak interactions that hold the graphene sheet
together. Their mechanical strength is comparable to that of carbon
nanotubes, and production cost could be much lower.
Nanotechnology is the engineering of atomically precise structures
and, ultimately, molecular machines. Alternatively, it is the umbrella
term that covers the design, characterisation, production and
application of structures, devices and systems by controlling shape
and size at nano-metre scale.
Research in this field focuses at developing high performance, low cost
plastic solar cells on the basis of organic (plastic) materials and
renewable natural resource-based fuels, like hydrogen gas.
It also looks into the design of miniaturized 3D battery structures (see
also APM supra). The shift from 2-D to 3-D conceiving enables the
development of small footprint batteries that maximize energy storage
without compromising power density.
Nano-tech
environmental
issues
for
On board hydrogen storage is a further field of action here. The
introduction of hydrogen storage devices into fuel tanks, such as metal
organic frameworks (MOFs) and COFs (covalent organic frameworks),
effectively doubles storage capacity for methane gas.
Producing potable water from seawater or contaminated water is a
promising way to alleviate worldwide water shortages. A nano-tech
based solution here is the mini-mobile modular (M3) 'smart' water
desalination and filtration system, which uses reverse osmosis (RO).
Also relevant to mention in this regard are filters composed of nanocomposite membranes technologies that can be used for water
filtration. They can double productivity of seawater desalination and
wastewater reclamation while using half the energy normally required.
10
As this seems to be the most uniform advanced material category from the overview in the
appendix, it is presented here. The other categories are not presented here since they have
more of a container character.
17
Nano-tech
medical care
for
In the field of combating global warming, zeolithic imidazolate
frameworks (ZIFs) are a nano-tech that work like a super-sized
molecular sponge to trap and store carbon dioxide. The ZIFs are heat
resistant, easy to make and can filter CO2 from a complex mixture of
gases (see also Climate or Geo-engineering).
In the field of medical care, following nano-techs are worth highlighting:
Nano-scale biosensors have been developed for early cancer
detection using technology based on detection/cellular pressuresensing techniques which demonstrate that cancer cells "feel" softer
and have different texture when compared to healthy cells.
Unique double emulsion droplets (oil droplets containing water
droplets) that are much smaller than a human cell are another
promising research line in this regard. They serve to deliver
pharmaceuticals in the form of supplying e.g. anti-cancer drugs in oil
and a toxin protein in the water providing two molecules that can work
together to kill the cancer cell.
Micro- and nanoelectronics
Nano-electronics
Vaults, also called natural nano-particles, are being designed to deliver
proteins and nucleic acids. Researchers have determined the largest
non-virus structure ever crystallized, rendering it easier to engineer
nano-particle containers for drug therapy vehicles. Vaults are still in the
process of being fully understood.
Micro- and nano-electronics deal with semiconductor components and
highly miniaturised electronic subsystems and their integration in larger
products and systems.
Complementary Metal Oxide Semiconductors (CMOS) have been one
of the main technologies for economic growth during the past halfcentury. Novel nano-scale materials and structures focusing on
fundamental atomic and molecular level understanding is being
researched to enable new properties to be more rapidly incorporated in
devices and architectures (Spin Wave Bus).
Spintronics studies the rotation, or spin, of electrons, which can also
carry information. Instead of physically moving the electrons, info can
be sent in the form of a "spin wave" that travels through the sea of
electrons in a conductor like a ripple moving across a pond.
Self-Powered Silicon Laser Chips is a new method of turning waste
heat into electrical power might speed up communications inside
computers- and mark another advance in the field of silicon photonics.
Nanotechnology researchers are involved in the field of nano-imprint
lithography, in which patterns of wires less than 50 atoms wide are
stamped out on substrates, or substances.
18
3. Assessment of generic and emerging character of technologies
The previously presented technologies are assessed in the following table on their generic and emerging character through an inventory of
evidence as regards their:



Economic relevance ( “generic”)
Societal relevance ( “generic”)
Status / Maturity (as indicator for “emerging”)
Generic
Technology
Advanced
manufacturing and
operating systems
Atomically
precise
manufacturing
(APM)
Societal relevance
Economic relevance
Producing in the right quantities, at the
right time and according to the right
specifications can reduce substantial
resources consumption. Producing onthe-spot or at least very close to the final
user/consumer
reduces
strain
on
transport and infrastructure systems.
The ability of APM to speed up the design
(and production) process will have a big
impact on industry, e.g. in terms of time-tomarket, lead times between order and
delivery, and cost saving in design,
production and logistics. Moreover, it can
improve customization levels and it can
reduce waste, unsold inventories and use
of natural resources.
19
Emerging
Status / Maturity
At present, these technologies serve
especially to manufacture prototypes and
scale models and single substance/material
items. The possibility to produce an item
that
typically
consists
of
different
components and materials is not possible
today. Certainly not as an all-in-one piece.
There is particularly a lot of progress ahead
regarding highly elaborate manufacturing
systems that will be able to manufacture
thousands, and perhaps even tens of
thousands, of components (or of machines
themselves). Today’s rapid prototyping, in
other words, will shade into tomorrow’s
rapid manufacturing.
Swarm robotics
Experts surveyed as part of FESTOS
project pointed out expectations are that
molecular manufacturing will come to
maturity by 2023, and self-replicating nanoassemblers by 2030
Although we’re seeing early prototypes of
“social” and “emotional” robots in research
labs today, the range of social skills and
emotions they display is very limited.
Swarm robotics will increasingly allow for
enlisting machines in dangerous or
remote operations, such as fire-fighting,
removal of hazardous waste, and deepwater exploration.
Moreover,
NASA
classifies
“Swarm
robotics” as a concept that still needs much
futrher advancement and scores it at Level
1,2 and 3 on the TRL scale
Nano-robotics
Nano-robots in pill form can diagnose
cancer or deliver highly targeted
chemotherapy. Robots can perform
surgeries with a level of accuracy that is
difficult for human surgeons to achieve
alone. They will also enable us to reach
hidden places in the body.
Medical nano-robotics holds a great
promise for curing disease and extending
the human health span. For example, one
medical nano-robot called a “micro-bivore”
act as an artificial mechanical white cell,
seeking out and digesting unwanted
Costs can be held down because molecular
manufacturing can have intrinsically cheap
production costs (probably on the order of
$1/kg for a mature molecular manufacturing
system) and can be a “green” technology
generating essentially zero waste products
or pollution during the manufacturing
process. Nano-robot life cycle costs can be
very low because nano-robots, unlike drugs
and other consumable pharmaceutical
agents, are intended to be removed intact
from the body after every use, then
refurbished and recycled many times,
possibly indefinitely. Even if the delivery of
nano-medicine doesn’t reduce total health-
20
Experts surveyed as part of FESTOS
project pointed out expectations are that
swarm robotics will come to maturity by
2023
Right now, medical nano-robots are just
theory. To build them, also molecular
manufacturing
technology
needs
to
advance much further than where it stands
today.
Experts surveyed as part of FESTOS
project pointed out expectations are that
medical nano-robots will come to maturity
by 2030
pathogens including bacteria, viruses, or
fungi in the bloodstream. Medical nanorobots could also be used to perform
surgery on individual cells.
care expenditures – which it should – it will
likely free up billions of dollars that are now
spent on premiums for private and public
health-insurance programs.
The potential impact of medical nanorobotics is enormous. Rather than using
drugs that act statistically and have
unwanted side effects, we can deploy
therapeutic nano-machines that act with
digital precision, have no side effects, and
can report exactly what they did back to
the physician. Test results, ranging from
simple blood panels to full genomic
sequencing, should be available to the
doctor within minutes of sample collection
from the patient. Continuous medical
monitoring by embedded nano-robotic
systems can permit very early disease
detection by patients or their physicians.
Such monitoring will also provide
automatic collection of long-baseline
physiologic data permitting detection of
slowly developing chronic conditions that
may take years or decades to develop,
such as obesity, diabetes, calcium loss, or
Alzheimer.
21
Cognitive
technologies
Semantic
web
search engines
/
Artificial intelligence
(AI)
Allowing true interoperability not just of
devices and raw data, but also of useful
information among very different groups
of people. As such, it enhances
communication
between
different
communities of practice and interest.
Can improve interaction and cooperation
between men and machine via e.g. better
speech recognition and understanding of
human (body) language and facial
expressions by robots.
Especially for disabled user groups this
will be a valuable progress in terms of
servicing and independent operating.
Enhancing the analytical capabilities of
researchers and information processors.
Improved pattern recognition through
linking up individual computers and
datasets.
Increased efficiency in e.g. diagnostic,
therapeutic and marketing labour.
Practical relevance of AI becomes apparent
especially via its possible deployment in
robotics in industrial production, in services,
and households, fulfilling difficult or
dangerous duties (see also under
Advanced manufacturing and operating
systems supra).
22
Experts surveyed as part of FESTOS
project pointed out expectations are that
more advanced iCloud services should be
available as of 2012 and ultra-dense
storage capacities as of 2018. As these are
important building blocks for semantic web /
search engines to come to maturity, its
unfolding can also be foreseen around
2015-2018.
Experts surveyed as part of FESTOS
project pointed out expectations are that
artificial intelligence will come to maturity by
2018.
Biotech & healthcare
Synthetic biology /
Synthetic genomics
Regenerative
medicine / tissue
engineering
Opens up possibilities to synthesize and
design viruses and bacteria. By extension,
living, self-replicating, organism can be
created and also the genetic pathways of
existing organisms can be altered to
perform new functions or as a way to
manufacture
high-value
drugs
or
chemicals.
Advocates of synthetic biology insist that it
can form the key to e.g. cheap biofuels,
cures for malaria and climate change
remediation.
Eras of shortage of donor organs may
become behind us.
Can unlock a sizeable industry. E.g. in the
form of companies that aim to develop and
commercialise new biological parts, devices
and systems that don’t exist in the natural
world.
Experts surveyed as part of FESTOS
project pointed out expectations are that
synthetic biology will come to maturity by
2018.
Human tissue and other organs can
become an important industrial product.
As tissue engineering is a refined
handicraft, it is not only about being able to
make or dispose of replacement tissue or
organs, but also of the application of it. This
requires substantial tinkering and patience,
which may require the use of medical
robots. I.e., it may only be possible to
create new products satisfying the
requirements for widespread medical use if
machines can be made to do the arduous,
hands-on work now performed by lab
technicians.
Moreover, one thing is to “grow” cell types
and tissues, but another thing is their
suitability for use in humans (e.g. get to
synthetic organs with oxygen and
nourishment).
23
Artificial
photosynthesis
Artificial photosynthesis is a renewable
and carbon-neutral source of fuel that
produces
either
hydrogen
or
carbohydrates, which can be used for
transportation or for domestic purposes.
See societal relevance
Unlike biomass energy, it does not require
arable land and, consequently, does not
compete with the food supply.
It will not add any green house gases into
the atmosphere. In addition, artificial
photosynthesis may actually help to mop
up large amounts of carbon dioxide from
the air to produce liquid fuels.
24
The former, together with legislational
barriers, implies that turning these
technologies into an acquis may still take
several years.
The International Energy Agency predicts
that hydrogen might enter the market as an
energy carrier around 2020. Yet this timing
depends largely on the availability of
hydrogen from cheap and environmentally
friendly sources.
Industrial Biotech
Enzymes and microorganisms
The use of enzymes and micro-organisms
are typically bio-degradable and are
therefore
superior
to
conventional
chemical
products
in
terms
of
environmental
friendliness
and
preservation of natural resources. They
can help reduce the dependence on raw
materials, such as phosphates and petrol.
Micro-organisms and enzymes are capable
of generating industrially useful products,
substances and chemical building blocks.
Industrial biotech-based chemicals are
expected to become a major constituent of
overall chemical production, and as such
will embody important stimuli for further
development of chemical industries.
Similarly, more recent applications are
heavily
recycling-borne
and
thus
contribute
further
to
sustainable
development strategies. Take for example
the production of bio-ethanol from lignocellulosic bio-mass such as wood or
agricultural waste.
25
The application of enzymes and microorganisms goes from mature cases as in
enzymes used for food, feed and detergent
products, to more recent applications that
include the production of biochemicals,
biopolymers and biofuels from agricultural
or forest wastes.
Overall,
industrial
biotech
can
be
considered to be largely an acquis with high
levels of technology/market readiness.
Climate engineering technologies do not now
offer yet a viable response to global climate
change. Consequently, experts on the matter
advocate that research to develop and
evaluate these technologies is required. At
the same time, there are ethical issues at
stake (of interfering in nature and in the
creation).11
Climate or geoengineering
Carbon
removal
dioxide
Improved
climate
control,
better
manageable environmental conditions
Can unlock a sizeable industry.
Solar
radiation
management
Improved
climate
control,
better
manageable environmental conditions
Can unlock a sizeable industry.
11
Further development of technologies is thus
needed, as well as “Technology Assessment”
exercises.
Currently
available
techniques
and
technologies in this field are immature,12 and
many of them can cause potentially negative
consequences.
Currently
available
techniques
and
technologies in this field are immature,13 and
many of them can cause potentially negative
consequences.
In addition, the issue is sensitive since just like global warming in itself is a cross-border issue; implementing any solutions in its regard is a transnational
issue. Consequently, if a country would unilaterally deploy a technology it will also have a transboundary effect
12
The US GAO gave a lower score than 6 on the « technology readiness level » scale to the involved technologies in its report on Climate Engineering (July
2011 – see Appendix 1). The highest-scoring CDR technology (at TRL 3) was direct air capture of CO2, which has had laboratory demonstrations using a
prototype and field demonstrations of underground sequestration of CO2. However, direct air capture is believed to be decades away from large-scale
commercialization. Additionally, for each of the currently proposed CDR technologies, it was found that implementation on a scale that could affect global
climate change may be impractical, either because vast areas of land would be required or because of inefficient processes, high cost, or unrealistically
challenging logistics.
13
All SRM technologies’ maturity measured TRL 2 or less (GAO, July 2011). That is, none had an analytical and experimental proof of concept. Additionally,
GAO found that the SRM technologies that were rated “potentially fully effective” have not, thus far, been shown to be without possibly serious consequences.
26
Brain-Computer
Interface and
Neurotechnology
Electro-EncephaloGraphy (EEG)
Neuro-informatics
EEG-based Brain-Computer or –electrical
devices interfaces can serve to control
motor disorders or to translate willful brain
processes into specific actions by the
control of external devices. These
interfaces can help to increase the
independence of people with disabilities
by allowing them to control various
devices with their thoughts.
Brain-to-brain
communication
(radiotelepathy) and brain implants can
serve to control motor disorders or to
translate willful brain processes into
specific actions by the control of external
devices. These implants can help to
increase the independence of people with
disabilities by allowing them to control
various devices with their thoughts.
Can unlock a sizeable industry
Experts surveyed as part of FESTOS
project pointed out expectations are that
Brain-Computer Interfaces will come to
maturity by 2023
Can unlock a sizeable industry
Experts surveyed as part of FESTOS
project pointed out expectations are that
brain-to-brain communication and brain
implants will come to maturity by 2030
27
Photonics
Scanning, sensing
and imaging
Information,
communication and
networks
Relevant for medicine, defence and
enhance quality of working and living
environment.
The wider environmental impact is a
complex issue, where reduction of impact
due to reduced energy consumption and
miniaturisation can be counteracted by
rebound effects.
Better information access will lead to
better healthcare and security.
Can allow for substantial cost and energy
reductions where applies.
Overall economic impact is positive, mainly
due to the enhanced competitiveness and
creation of new products for new markets.
Can raise the demand for investments in
high quality infrastructure leading to general
economic
growth
and
enhanced
competitiveness for using industries and
markets. Likewise, it can lead to energy
consumption reduction.
Certain technological applications, such as
drive-less car and biometric surveillance
(facial recognition), have already been
commercialized.
In this field, substantial progress towards
technology maturity can still be made.
Notably as regards optical computing,
which is still in a highly theoretical and
experimental
stage.
However
some
components of integrated circuits have
already been developed.
Security data transmission is also likely to
leverage
developments
in
quantum
cryptography but this is also already in
commercialized stages.
A further crucial research area where
advancement can be expected is laser
research and research on laser devices, as
these technologies provide the source of
light for data communication (see also
below).
28
Screens
displays
and
Advanced lighting
Photonic
systems
energy
Advanced displays play an important role
in better use of information, especially for
education. However, information overload
is also here an important risk.
The impact is potentially positive on
energy consumption. However, complex
waste is to be expected and addressed.
Although there is some potential impact
on security, the social impact to be
expected to be limited. Impacts in terms of
waste are uncertain
Some limited social benefits are expected,
like the increased inclusion of people
living in remote locations.
The impact is positive on energy
consumption. Production of (toxic) waste
is limited.
Economic opportunities may not reside so
much on the production of displays, but on
spurring the launch of new products for
especially the final markets.
Most display technologies have already
been commercialized, but screen-less
displays and phased-array optics remain in
theoretical stages.
The potential growth of this value chain is
high, also leading to high potential
reduction
of
energy
costs.
New
functionalities can enhance especially the
competitiveness of SMEs in regard to new
markets.
Industries that install the systems can
expect increased economic growth.
LED and OLED technologies have already
been diffused.
Photovoltaic technology has notably
growing markets in California, Spain, and
Northern Africa.
The potential growth of this value chain is
high, but competition will be strong.
29
Future progress may come from the
generation of energy systems with laser
driven fusion as a new photonic technology,
although the practical development of
fusion power plants is still likely to take
several decades as it is currently in
theoretical and experimental stages.
Laser-based
production systems
Some limited social benefits are notably
expected in the field of better working
environments. Also energy efficiency is
supposed to benefit from its use.
The environmental impact of lasers is
heterogeneous, and cannot be assessed.
Energy efficiency is improving, but shows
rebound effects and waste production is
unclear.
The impact of lasers is heterogeneous, and
cannot be assessed uniformly. The
potential short term economic growth of this
value chain is high, but competition will
increase. However, laser systems will
become more important for manufacturing
and they promise to underpin advances,
cost reductions and production speed gains
in an increasing number of industries.
For instance, recently, material processing
applications have expanded rapidly beyond
traditional metals processing partly as a
result of the development of new lower cost
fibre lasers and partly due to the
development of industrial short pulse
lasers. As more lasers are developed and
refined into industrial compatible devices,
the number of applications continues to
expand and as they become more mature
laser-based
instrumentations
are
increasingly applied to medical applications.
Lasers are also being considered for
defence applications both with directed
energy weapons and laser based counter
measures. The same goes for the printing
of plastic electronics. Plastic electronics
could lower the cost of producing basic
electronic devices substantially with positive
spill-over effects in many applications from
flexible e-books to smart packaging
30
Laser TV has already been commercialized
by Mitsubishi, but quantum dot laser is in
experimental stages, and electro-laser is in
early research phase.
Advanced Materials
Besides the costs of capital, expenditure
on materials is the most important cost
factor in high-technology related
industries. They are of key importance for
the competitiveness of EU industry
especially since Europe is not well
endowed with natural resources.
Nano-technology
Nano-tech
renewable
purposes
for
energy
Important due to providing solutions to the
use of scarce resources or deploying
them more efficiently.
Renewable resource-based fuels help
address climate change issues and future
energy needs using waste products.
Advanced materials lead both to new
reduced cost substitutes to existing
materials and to new higher added-value
products and services.
Material innovations can be used in
practically all manufacturing industries and
form an important element in the supply
chain of many high value manufacturing
businesses. They have the potential to lead
to innovations in key industries such as
energy, aeronautics and space, automotive,
engineering, textiles, electronics and
consumer goods.
Many industries’ development depend on
progress in nanotech and the adoption of its
findings, e.g.: automotive industry,
aeronautics, healthcare, energy.
Important to find cheaper alternatives to
traditional energetic sources.
May allow countries suffering from drought
to benefit from alternative energetic
methods, which could then also help to
drive their economic development.
These technologies also have a clear
focus on improving social well-being by
allowing society to benefit from new
energetic forms.
Considering the state of technology
maturity, issues related to environmental,
health and safety (EHS) concerns,
standardisation and public opinion needs to
be addressed to ensure market acceptance
and the deployment of nanotechnology.
Bio-fuels are already commercialized.
Hydrogen storage devices are already
being commercialized (BASF).
Plastic solar cells (nano-materials) are in
their first stages (they are different from
already commercialized silicon based solar
cells).
3D Batteries are not yet commercialized.
31
Nano-tech
environmental
issues
for
Environmentally friendly vehicles that use
hydrogen gas can dramatically reduce
greenhouse emissions and lessen the
country's dependence on fossil fuels.
MOFs involve the introduction of metal
organic frameworks directly into fuel tanks
directly into fuel tanks, and other similar
structure, and COFs (covalent organic
frameworks) effectively doubles storage
capacity for methane gas.
Important because of its potential to
reduce or moderate climate change and
poverty issues. I.e.:
Corresponding technologies offer important
potential to get to industrial cost reductions.
Water desalination and water filtration
already
commercialized.
Zeolitic
imidazolate
frameworks
(ZIF)
not
commercialized.
Control costs from aging populations.
Bio-sensors and free lens already
prototyped. Double nano-emulsion droplets,
vaults, nano-valves and nano-impellers,
and mesoporous silica under research and
experiments.
Technologies promise solutions for
contemporary environmental problems
and to anticipate on such problems before
they arise.
Nano-tech
medical care
for
These technologies may also provide
opportunities to underdeveloped countries
to drive their economic development
Important for ensuring a constantly
improving healthcare services to society.
Allow to find most effective solutions to
combat diseases and pains of medical
treatments.
Reduce costs in expensive, long and
complex treatments which are not efficient.
32
Micro and Nanoelectronics
Nano-electronics
Micro-electronics enable greater energy
efficiency in devices and control systems
in many end-user applications. They are
also important to green technologies to
lower energy consumption.
In a global society, easier communication
devices and faster information access
facilitate relationships among different
geographical agents.
These electronics provide a vital input to
e.g.: automotive, aeronautics and medical
industries.
Allow for faster and more energy efficient
electronic products.
CMOS (Spin wave bus) and Spintronics are
under prototype studies.
Smaller chip sizes for computers and their
ability to store more information and tools in
electronics increases the ability of and
minimizes
materials
for
information
technology devices such as computers.
Silicon Photonics is under research by
different agencies and firms (BM, Intel...)
33
Nano-imprint Lithography
is
already
commercialized. I.e., this technology is
currently being commercialized by HP in
tandem with Nanolithosolutions Inc., a startup company co-created by a CNSI Member
who is a former member of HP Labs.
4. Policy challenges and implications in view of
furthering emerging and generic technologies
As regards policy implications for following up on and furthering emerging and generic
technologies, the Final Report of the High Level Expert Group on Key Enabling
Technologies provides a good starting point. I.e. several of the recommendations provided
under Chapter 4 of that report on how to promote the advancement of KETs refer to policy
areas and measures can also help to pave the way for emerging and generic technologies
(hereafter also EGTs).
In concreto, the following measures –inspired by the High Level Expert Group on Key
Enabling Technologies- are deemed relevant:
1) Define and implement a comprehensive, yet strategic, approach to emerging and
generic technologies at EU level
The Commission, in cooperation with the Member States, should design a EGTs strategy
with a vision of the EU's future position in a global context. Such a strategic policy approach
can invigorate the Europe 2020 strategy and should enable to look beyond that time horizon.
For such a strategy to succeed, it is vital to position EGTs as a technological priority for
Europe and to align the EU's main political and financial instruments in the coming decade
consistently with the goals of EU 2020 (and beyond) to achieve this goal. In particular, the
Common Strategic Framework for Research and Innovation Financing, Horizon 2020 (CSF)
and the policies of the European Investment Bank group are instrumental in this regard.
Moreover, such a strategy should build upon :
- A political approach and governance that simultaneously incentivises innovation and
cooperation, both through frameworks policies and funding, at crucial stages of European
value chains;
- The involvement of industry in the design of the programmes and evaluation procedures of
projects underneath them should be strengthened;
- Reviewing the current RDI programs and instruments to check on their relevance for and
inclusion of EGTs ;
- Ensuring that regulation does not form a barrier to EGTs mutatis mutandis,14 and the use of
regulatory impact assessment to test whether new regulations and regulatory approaches
either encourage or frein the furthering of EGTs and derived applications;15
- Making greater use of public procurement mechanisms to support demonstration projects
and for the public sector to act as a first customer for EGTs and EGT-based products;
14
In the sense of blocking them off by qualifying them as inconvenient or through the fact that the
costs of EGT project may put them in a league above the ones that are e.g. typical for FP7 and
therefore may induce additional administrative and notification burdens.
15
The experiences with the REACH regulations arguably provide a good learning case here.
34
- Stronger awareness of the readiness and maturity of EGTs and what it takes to move it up
the technological readiness ladder (see Chapter 3 of the present report). Also a more
consistent use and assessment of EGTs in Technological Readiness Level terms should be
fostered for a common understanding of the status questionis of technologies.
Obviously, there is space and mandate for individual Member States to pursue own EGTs
strategies on the grounds of conferral and subsidiarity, on the one hand, and specifics of
industrial and technological strongholds that may differ from country to country, on the
other.16 But as far as there are common interests into specific technologies, such strategies
should be overarched and coordinated by a EU level action programme and strategy to
avoid redundancies and to cross-leverage Member State-level strengths and opportunities
with regard to specific EGTs.
Exhibit 1: Principles of conferral, subsidiarity and effectiveness with regard to allocating policy initiatives
The ‘principle of conferral’ states that the European Union shall only act within the limits of the
competences conferred upon it by the Member States. This also holds true with regard to policies to
stimulate R&D and innovation. The Lisbon treaty also underlines this, stating that industrial and R&D
policy, is a competence that is shared between the European Union and the Member States. More
particularly, it states that the EU has the competence to coordinate, to supplement and to support
actions in these fields by Member States. This implies that in this policy area the initiative lies with the
Member States and the Union should complement the actions of Member States in order to respect
the ‘principle of subsidiarity’. The principle of subsidiarity states that the European Union shall act, in
areas which do not fall within its exclusive competence, only if and insofar as the objectives of the
proposed action cannot be sufficiently achieved or made effective by the Member States, either at
their national level or at regional and local level.
It should be noted, though, that the principle of subsidiarity does not imply that competences for
specific fields of policy are to be allocated exclusively at a single level of government. As the
competence of the Union in the area of R&D and innovation policy is to coordinate, supplement and
support, it implies that if there is R&D and innovation policy at the EU level, it should be additional to
innovation policy at lower levels.
Take note that the subsidiarity principle also implies that if the objectives of a policy field are best
served when undertaking action at (a coordinated) EU level, this policy option can also be embraced.
This refers to the ‘effectiveness imperative’, which implies that if action at EU level is superior to
single or joint Member States initiative in terms of notably:
•
•
•
•
•
Addressing cross-border aspects and externalities to the policy issues at stake;
Generating structuring effects across stakeholders and beneficiaries;
Exploiting scale economies in policy making or policy implementation;
Bringing and pooling together the necessary resources (finance, knowledge, etc.) to implement
the policy action in the most efficient way;
Stimulating international policy learning and diffusion of best practice measures.
Then it is indicated to opt for EU level action.
16
For an insight on Member State activities with regard to future technologies we refer to the
Proceedings report to the Seminar that DG Research organized on the 3rd of March 2011 in Brussels
with regard to European Forward Looking Activities.
35
Source: own elaboration based on INNO-Learning Platform, Annual Report 2008-2009.

A combined financing to promote RDI investments in EGTs
Building upon the subsidiarity principle above and the acknowledgement that also Member
States have a role to play in furthering EGTs, it is all the more important to combine funding
from different resources, i.e. from public and private actors as well as from different public
funds : separate European schemes, but also national and regional sources. A suggestion
here could be to for the the EU should introduce a tripartite financing approach based on
combined funding mechanisms involving Industry, Commission, and national authorities
(Member States and local government), when required by the high costs of the R&D and
innovation projects for EGTs, and put in place the appropriate program management and
mechanisms to allow the combination of EU funding (CSF, structural funds), to enable the
optimum investment in significant EGT pilot line and manufacturing facilities across Europe.
Evidently, a matching clause, analogous to that contained in the EU Framework for State Aid
for Research and Development and Innovation, should be introduced in the general EU state
aid rules to allow Member States to match funding up to the maximum levels of support
provided elsewhere for product development and manufacturing activities while respecting
WTO rules. Such clauses may not serve to balance differences in general economic
conditions between countries but rather to counter significantly higher state aids by third
countries resulting in an unfair distortion of international competition. The introduction of
matching clauses could also be considered at the occasion of the prolongation of the
relevant state aid frameworks for regional and environmental state aid which are due to
expire at the end of 2013 and 2014 respectively.

A globally competitive IP Policy
The selection criteria and terms for consortium agreements of EU R&D and innovation
funding programmes should be amended to ensure that participating consortia have a clear
and explicit plan for both the ownership of and first exploitation of IP resulting from selected
projects within the EU.
Current EU programme rules (e.g. Annex 2 of general conditions relating to FP7) appear to
not provide an adequate incentive in this regard. That is, the application of the various
clauses of EC’s general conditions, results in low level patent filings and licence agreements
after FP7 projects along with low percentages of exclusive licences ( < 10%).
Therefore, the EU rules for participation in the CSF can be strengthened in order to better
protect the technological knowledge of the EU. Generally, the EU should promote an "in
Europe first" IP policy. In line with this principle, at the start of any project the consortium
partners should have to demonstrate in their proposal that they have a clear IP plan for both
the ownership and first exploitation of IP resulting from the project within the EU.
At the end of any project, actions should then be undertaken to favour the EU exploitation of
the results of projects.

The development of skills and competencies to enhance the exploitation of EGTs
In order to exploit EGTs and their industrial dimension, new skills and competencies will be
necessary that current training and education do not entirely supply. To start with, maths,
science and technology should be further promoted at secondary education level. At the
36
same time, research and engineering skills will have to adapt to satisfy the polytechnical and
converging dimension of EGTs.
The EU should define and implement procedures to make diagnoses and gap analyses in
this regard and apply the appropriate measures to fill these gaps. Instruments are needed to
provide the education and skills for future engineers that can further the EGTs.

Appropriate follow-up and monitoring mechanisms for ongoing screening of rise and
progress with regard to EGTs (both inside and outside of Europe) and of policy
measures to be taken to further the development and valorization of EGTs (see next
chapter)
In addition, we posit that it is vital to develop actions in 3 additional directions:



Anticipate on (clear out and debate) ethical, environmental and other issues
surrounding the respective technologies in an early stage to avoid “technological
determinism” and to maximize societal utility and acceptance of emerging and
generic technologies. A systematic undertaking of Technology Assessments should
form part of this.
Build consensus with other continents, trade blocks or multilateral organizations in
case that driving specific technologies forward has collateral effects beyond Europe
(or vice versa). F.i. if Europe would decide to embrace geo- and climate engineering
systems, the effects that these technologies would bring about can not be confined to
the borders of European Member States. Such practices could, for example, also
have an effect on eco-systems in other parts of the world. Similarly, there may be an
interest in agreeing on global standards for certain technologies to ensure their
worldwide interoperability.
Sensitization of the public for KETs: raise awareness and information level on what
they are about and likewise undertake canvassing and positive role modelling actions
on KETs, where necessary and appropriate, since there may also be cases of
negative prejudices and wrongly shaped / distorted perceptions surrounding some of
them.
37
5. Propositions to come to a systematic future
scanning on emerging and generic technologies
To come to a more systematic future scanning on emerging and generic technologies, again
we propose to take the recommendations issued in the Final Report of the High Level Expert
Group on Key Enabling Technologies as a starting point. For also with regard to future
scanning exercises, we hold them as highly directive and indicative on how to go about with
emerging and generic technologies. We would notably recommend embracing the issues
raised under § 4.6 of the report in question:
-
-
The establishment of an European observatory monitoring mechanism that aims at
providing relevant information / data on EGTs to enable better development and
implementation of policies regarding the furthering of EGTs by European decisionmakers, including Member States, regional authorities and industry. It should analyze
the state-of-the-art with regard to EGTs by establishing procedures and mechanisms
to assess the situation in the EU and applying it to benchmark the EU with regard to
the rest of the world. A report should be published by this monitoring mechanism on
a regular basis to inform on the advancement of Europe with regard to the respective
EGTs in comparison to other parts of the world.
As part of its monitoring activities, the European mechanism or structure to be
created should consult the main stakeholders on a regular basis in order to
constantly interact and receive feedback on the development of EGTs and on the
suitability of EU support policies (see Chapter 4 of this report) in their regard.
In addition and to operationalize the above recommendations, we want to emphasize the
following points:




A good and systematic screening excercise should not only look at sources with
(scientific) authority, but also at what circulates via more popular and accessible
channels and communities of interest (to pick up weak signals and peripheral sounds
at an early stage).
To analyze the wealth of info from such sources in a systematic manner, such an
exercise should be underpinned by an instrument or method that allows real pattern
matching or citation analyses. Ideally, a computational tool should be deployed for
this to do targeted citation analysis and text mining among sets of relevant sources.
Furthermore, next to desk-top and literature review based research, the monitoring
and assessment exercise should be complemented by expert consultations (focus
group discussions, Delphi rounds, …) to get to more endorsed and in-depth views on
the delineation (see next point) and state-of-the-art per technology field plus the
obstacles for uptake and spread they may face and supportive policy measures in
that regard.
Although emerging and generic technologies are very much about transversality and
cross-sectorality, certainly at inception they may emerge in highly specialized areas
and the awareness and insight that they may be useful for a large variety of sectors
and industries may not be there then. To help such processes a hand (or to unlock
cases of serendipity) it would be best to gather representatives from wholly different
areas to raise the chance of finding interesting new applications and combinations
(cfr. combinatorial and open innovation processes).
38
Appendix 1 - Further reading / sources consulted:
On Advanced manufacturing and operating systems:
ftp://ftp.jrc.es/pub/EURdoc/JRC61539.pdf
http://www.economist.com/node/14299512
http://www.wfs.org/Dec09-Jan10/freitas.htm
https://www.fbo.gov/index?s=opportunity&mode=form&id=540e71b171c36f3b8b609029e1807e4a&ta
b=core&_cview=0
http://www.techconnectworld.com/Nanotech2011/sym/
http://www.techconnectworld.com/Nanotech2011/sym/#elemic
http://ec.europa.eu/enterprise/sectors/ict/files/kets/6_advanced_manufacturing_report_en.pdf
On Cognitive technologies:
http://www.eccai.org/
http://www.journals.elsevier.com/journal-of-web-semantics/
Semantic Technologies - Deliverable 1.2.2 – Service Web 3.0 - Special Purpose Roadmaps, FP7216937 : http://www.serviceweb30.eu/cms/
On Biotech & Healthcare:
http://www.techconnectworld.com/Nanotech2011/sym/#medbio
On Industrial Biotech:
http://ec.europa.eu/enterprise/sectors/ict/files/kets/4_industrial_biotechnology-final_report_en.pdf
On Climate engineering:
http://www.gao.gov/new.items/d1171.pdf
http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/R41371.pdf
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/geoengineering
http://www.livescience.com/6095-raging-debate-geoengineer-earths-climate.html
http://www.techconnectworld.com/Nanotech2011/sym/#eneenv
39
&
On Brain-Computer Interfaces and Neurotechnology:
WTEC panel report on « International assessment of research and development in Brain-Computer
Interfaces », 2007 : http://www.wtec.org/bci/BCI-finalreport-10Oct2007-lowres.pdf
http://transhumanism.org/index.php/WTA/languages/C46
http://www.singularity.com/
On Photonics:
TNO, The leveraged effect of photonics technologies: the European
http://cordis.europa.eu/fp7/ict/photonics/docs/reports/photonicsleveragestudy_en.pdf
effect,
2011:
ftp://ftp.jrc.es/pub/EURdoc/JRC51739.pdf
http://ec.europa.eu/enterprise/sectors/ict/files/kets/photonics_final_en.pdf
On Advanced Materials:
http://www.fumat2011.eu/
http://www.techconnectworld.com/Nanotech2011/sym/#advmat
http://ec.europa.eu/enterprise/sectors/ict/files/kets/2_hlg-materials-report_en.pdf
On Nano-technology:
http://www.wtec.org/nano2/Nanotechnology_Research_Directions_to_2020/Nano_Resarch_Direction
s_to_2020.pdf
http://ec.europa.eu/enterprise/sectors/ict/files/kets/3_nanotechnology_final_report_en.pdf
On Micro- and Nano-Electronics:
http://www.techconnectworld.com/Nanotech2011/sym/#elemic
http://ec.europa.eu/enterprise/sectors/ict/files/kets/1_micro_and_nano_thematic_report_nov_15_final
_final_en.pdf
40
Further references:
Coates, J. F. (1976). Technology assessment - A tool kit. Chemtech (June): 372-383
Moravec, H. Robot. Mere machine to transcendent mind, Oxford University Press, NY, 1999
Roco, M.C. and W.S. Bainbridge (Eds.), Converging technologies for improving human
performance, National Science Foundation, Arlington, Virginia, 2002
Schot. J. And A. Rio, The past and future of constructive technology assessment,
Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Volume 54, Number 2, February 1997 , pp.
251-268
Smits, R., A. Leyten & J. Geurts (1985), The possibilities and limitations of Technology
Assessment. In search of a useful approach, Staatsuitgeverij, Den Haag
U.S. Department of Energy, Technology Readiness Assessment Guide DOE G 413.3-4, 1012-09, Washington D.C.
41
Appendix 2 - Advanced Materials overview:














Carbon Nano Structures & Devices
Graphene
Nanoparticle Synthesis & Applications
Composite Materials
Nanofluids
Nanostructured Materials & Devices
Nanostructured Coatings, Surfaces & Films
Polymer Nanotechnology
Soft Nanotechnology & Colloids
Nanomaterials for Catalysis
Bio Nano Materials
Materials for Drug & Gene Delivery
Green Chemistry & Materials
Nanomaterials for Clean & Sustainable Technology
Source: http://www.nanotechia.org/
42