RETURN TO THE EMPIRE Written by: Gökhan Tekir The dissolution of the Soviet Empire prompted the emergence of 15 countries. Russian Federation is the biggest country of these 15 countries and the successor of the Soviet Union. Having deprived of its enormous army Russia used its energy card in formulating foreign policy in various degrees depending on political circumstances of the country since its establishment. During Yeltsin’s years the rapid privatization and de-industrialization led to handing over state institutions into businessmen under cheap prices. Energy companies were among these institutions. Many oil and gas companies started to be controlled by oligarchs. Since they had the control of the resources, they also engaged in formulating foreign policy-making process. The policies formulated generally conformed with the West. Russia could not use its energy card effectively in this period. Putin’s presidential term marked a huge difference regarding energy policy. First years of his presidential term he made an implicit consensus with oligarchs. It was not coincidence that the war between Putin and oligarchs erupted because of disputes concerning the ownership of energy. In order to gain the hegemon and superpower status Russian elites considered energy as the primary tool. Through energy Russia would emphasize its hegemon status in its region and exert pressure on Europe and China. Thus, almost all energy companies were brought under the state control. Putin appointed his trusted fellows to heads of gas and oil companies so these companies were evolved into the state apparatus. The influence over the Central Asian countries was intensified in order to cut the search of Europe to find alternative energy routes. 1-ENERGY POLICY OF RUSSIAN FEDERATION IN YELTSIN ERA Russian Federation was not able to exert influence over Central Asian and Caucasian states, which recently gained their independence, in its early years of establishment. It had its 2 own internal clashes and privatization in the economy filled its agenda. During these years former Soviet states established relations with Western oil companies without needing to get approval of Russian Federation. The internal problems also compelled Russia. Russia had to make concession to Chechnya in order to secure energy routes in 1992. The importance of energy in gaining influence over Central Asian states was documented in Russian National Security Concept in 1994. Using energy companies as foreign policy actors in Central Asian countries was emphasized. 1 It was hoped that Russian energy companies’ penetration to Central Asia would flourish economic re-integration of Central Asian countries to Russia and ultimately political re-union would be provided. Since Russian military forces were to serve as security forces to protect energy forces, the military presence of Russia in Central Asia would be set. Victor Chernomyrdin has reiterated that economic unity is a prelude to military and political union of the CIS countries. 2 The energy was used to show Russia’s power over the former Soviet countries. For instance, Russia cut the oil supply to Moldova just days before when Moldavian parliament would vote on the membership of the CIS. 1. a. Deal of the Century Having started to recover the turmoil of its early years of establishment, Russia stated its intentions towards Central Asian and Caucasian states. In order get itself into game; Russia took an active policy regarding energy deals of its ‘Near Abroad’ states. On September 20 1994 several oil companies which merged into a consortium and Azerbaijan signed an agreement which determined the blueprint of the extraction and transportation of Azerbaijan oil. Russian state company LUKOIL was included in the consortium by receiving 10% share without even paying one cent. Despite this generous gesture of Western oil companies, the nationalist wing of Russian Federation objected this 1 Yasin Aslan, Hazar Petrolleri, Kafkas Kördüğümü ve Türkiye (Ankara: Berikan, 2005), 50. Stephen Blank, Energy, Economics, and Security in Central Asia: Russia and Its Rivals (Carlisle: ,Strategic Studies Institute, 1995), 5. 2 3 contract. Russian Foreign Minister Primakov stated that the ministry would not recognize this deal. 3 The deal made between Western consortium and Azerbaijan was considered as an intrusion to Russian sphere of influence. This contract also displayed the fragmented nature of Yeltsin administration. Foreign Ministry was not even notified before the deal had been made. Unfortunates did not leave Azerbaijan alone after signing the agreement. On September 21 four high-ranking prisoners, who were opposition members, escaped from custody. On September 29 two top Azeri officials were assassinated. 4 A coup attempt, which aimed to oust Aliyev, followed these unfortunate events. Aliyev managed to suppress coup attempt but he changed his Western oriented course. While pursuing his balanced foreign policy, he gave prefential treatment to Russia in his later years. Despite the Deal of the Century, the problem of delivering Caspian oil and gas Europe was not resolved completely. Russia’s ‘big brother’ status over Central Asian states was increasingly felt by both the countries in the region and Western countries. 1. b. Status of Caspian Sea Status of Caspian Sea whether it is a sea or lake is one of the most controversial issues in energy politics. The distribution of mineral resources, fishing rights and geopolitical considerations are the factors that affect the positions of five littoral states. The dissolution of Soviet Union and the emergence of different states fuelled the discussions concerning the status of Caspian Sea. Russia, Iran and Turkmenistan held Caspian Sea as a lake whereas Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan consider Caspian as sea. The early Russian position siding with Iran proposed the equal share of the resources among five littoral states because the international law of the sea cannot be applied to the status of Caspian ‘lake’. 1921 3 Roland Sinker, “The Management of a Transboundary Energy Resource: the Oil and Gas of the Caspian Sea,” in The Politics of Caspian Oil, ed. Bülent Gökay (New York: Palgrave, 2001), 79. 4 Charles Fairbanks and Elkshan Alakbarov, “Azerbaijan and Ominous Rumblings,” Azerbaijan International, last modified Winter 1994, http://www.azer.com/aiweb/categories/magazine/24_folder/24articles/24_russia.html 4 and 1940 agreements signed between Iran and the Soviet Union were the legal basis of the claims of these two countries. The position of Russia changed constantly on Caspian status later. The change in Russian policy about the status of Caspian reflected the struggle within the state structure. Ministry of Oil and Fuel lobbied by oil companies and Foreign Ministry could not agree on this issue. Oil companies urged Russian state to take a more conciliatory position. 5 Russian state used the controversy concerning the status of Caspian Sea to prevent complete realization of the Deal of the Century. Russia, then, softened its stance and sought bilateral agreements with littoral states. Russia came to accept the sectorial division of Caspian Sea belt.6 This approach divides the sea belt and surface. Iran protested Russia’s reversion. Iran proposed a joint solution instead of bilateral agreements since it fears that Russia has the upper hand when negotiating with countries in the region. The parties are still trying to find a solution, which will satisfy all partners. Russia’s stance on Caspian Base is geopolitical rather than the distribution of the resources. Littoral states’ positions on Caspian Base determine their sovereignty areas. The energy deals of these countries with other parties will be affected by their sovereignty issue. As long as the status of Caspian Sea causes disputation, Russia will get opportunity to interfere in the region. 1. c. First Chechen-Russian War Chechnya is one of the autonomous republics in Russian Federation. Since its annexation by Russian Empire in the 19th century, the disturbances and conflicts always existed between Chechens and Russian state. The religious difference with Russian population was the main reason for the ongoing conflict. After Second World War most of Chechen and Ingush people 5 Kamyar Mehdiyoun, “Ownership of Oil and Gas Resources in the Caspian Sea,” American Journal of International Law 94, no. 1 (2000): 185. 6 Ibid., 187. 5 were expelled from their territories. That act of the Soviet state increased bitter feelings of Chechens against Russians. After the dissolution of the Soviet Union Chechens also wanted to set their own national state so Chechnya declared its independence in 1991 under the Dzokhar Dudayev’s leadership, who was a Major-General in the Soviet Army. This declaration was not accepted by Russian Federation but the state was so weak that it could not send troops, either. Energy politics is important in evaluating Chechnya’s position in Russia. Chechnya has considerable oil resources and the Northern Baku-Novorossiysk route passes through over 153 km of Chechen territory. 7 In the case of Chechnya’s independence, an alternative route which would connect Europe with Caspian oil would emerge. Therefore, Russia decided not to tolerate a secessionist movement in Chechnya and launched a war in 1994 when the nationalist wing in the government gained strength within the government. Yeltsin had to support the war due to the fact that he felt that he needed a victory before the presidential elections. The result of the war was shocking to the world and to Russia. Small and unequipped Chechen forces defeated Russian army. Russia had to withdraw from Chechnya and accept de-facto Chechen independence. Russia treated Chechnya as a separate state in making energy agreements by giving generous shares to Chechnya government in these agreements. Chechnya was a huge failure for Russian honor because while asserting its leadership position over Central Asian states, it could not restore its sovereignty within its territories. 1. d. The privatization of energy companies The privatization of the state enterprises was the main objective of Yeltsin. Firstly, voucher privatization was implemented in which vouchers which were equivalent of 10000 rubles were distributed among Russian population. Deprived of meeting their basic needs, 7 Syed Adnan Ali Shah, “The Genesis of Chechen Conflict,” The Institute of Strategic Studies, accessed April 5, 2012, http://www.issi.org.pk/old-site/ss_Detail.php?dataId=225 6 most of Russian citizens traded their vouchers with money. Thus, the vouchers were accumulated into the hands of bureaucrats or people who had capital. In 1995, loans for shares program was introduced with the recommendation of an oligarch Vladimir Potanin. In this program, the assets of the state were held as leverage to the loans lent by banks to the government. The program was implemented in a collusive course. The managers of the state enterprises were bribed to take loans, which they don’t plan to pay back, from the banks, owned by the oligarchs. Thus, the oligarchs became the owners of many state companies under their normal value of the market. Among these state enterprises the energy companies existed. Mikhail Khodorkovsky owned YUKOS, Boris Berezovsky and Roman Abramovich owned Sibneft. The oligarchs gained considerable influence over foreign policy via their ownership of energy companies. The most controversial involvement of the oligarchs in Russian policy was their role in Chechnya issue. The importance of Baku-Novorossiysk pipeline drove the oligarchs to collaborate with Chechnya government during first and second Chechnya-Russia war. It was rumored that the oligarchs financed Chechnya government against Russia. Berezovsky was associated with Shamil Basaev, notorious war lord who was responsible for the hostage crisis in Beslan. 8 The oligarchs, therefore, put their business interests above the interests of the interests of Russian state. Putin, later, did not forgive Berezovsky for his past dealings with Chechens. The oil companies run by oligarchs clashed with Russian foreign ministry in the deals with Central Asian countries in the mid-1990s. These clashes resulted mostly with the victory of energy sector over nationalist wing. Berezovsky had risen to the executive secretary of the CIS. His arbitrary involvement in the affairs of other states and usurpation of his authority 8 Peter Duncan, “’Oligarchs’, Business and Russian Foreign Policy: From Yeltsin to Putin” (Economics Working Paper, London, 2007), 6. 7 upset even Yeltsin. He was sacked in 1999. 9 The role of oligarchs in both domestic and foreign level created hatred among nationalist wing within the government. Russian population also blamed the oligarchs for accumulation of wealth and power in the hands of small group of businessmen. Old and weak president Yeltsin could not hold on power and tendered his resignation in the last day of 1999. New prime minister and future president of Russian Federation would change the course of Russian politics. 2. ENERGY POLITICS IN PUTIN’S PRESIDENCY Putin attempted to restore the strength of Russian state. The energy politics is important element for Russia to assert its superpower status. In Putin’s term, Russia tries to counter the infiltration of NATO and the EU into its Near Abroad. Alexander Ghaleb, who is a national security expert and U.S. Army captain, claims that Russia cannot confront NATO and Western alliance through military means. Thus, oil and gas politics are the vital instruments for Russia to formulate its grand strategic objectives. 10 Putin himself stated that the energy resources are instruments to implement domestic and foreign policy; the role of country on energy markets determines its geopolitical influence. 11 In addition to its importance of foreign policy, the rise in oil prices helped Russian economy to develop in 2000s considerably after the economic collapse in 1990s. In 1997, the price of crude oil per barrel saw the deepest level with $18,97 and deprived Russia of an important source of revenue. Since 2000s oil prices have risen. In 2012, price per barrel of oil is 101,83. 12 Strong economy enabled Russia to impose aid programs to its Near Abroad to increase its influence. The weak position against the Western world disappeared due to weak economy and Russia gained confidence in implementing its foreign policy. 9 Ibid., 8. Alexander Ghaleb, Natural Gas as An Instrument of Russian State Power (Carlisle: Strategic Studies Institute, 2011), 43. 11 Roman Kupchinsky, “Russia’s New Energy Blackmail Tool, “ The Jamestown Foundation, last modified April 22, 2009, http://www.jamestown.org/single/?no_cache=1&tx_ttnews%5Btt_news%5D=34888 12 “Oil price history, Research and Analysis System,” accessed 9 April 2012, http://www.worldoils.com/oilprice.php 10 8 In order to establish oil and gas companies as the extensions of the state apparatus, the energy companies that were handed over to the oligarchs were brought the state friendly capitalists. This policy of Putin caused conflict between the administration and the oligarchs, resulting the end of influence of oligarchs as the policy-making class in Russian politics. 2. a. Clash of the oligarchs In August 1999, Sergei Stephashin resigned from his premiership post. Yeltsin brought Vladimir Putin, who was First Deputy Prime Minister at that time, to the premiership. The oligarchs, notably Boris Berezovsky backed Yeltsin’s decision to appoint Putin. Berzevosky thought that Putin could not fight with big capital and would be another puppet prime minister.13 The premiership and first years of his presidential term Putin had warm relationship with the oligarchs. The oligarchs financed Putin’s presidential race. The honeymoon lasted very shortly. The Second Chechen War, which started in 1999, marked the first fracture in the policies of Putin administration and the oligarchs. Berezovsky’s connections with Chechen war lords and his role in the Chechen attack on Dagestan created suspicion and controversy in the circles of the Russian state. Putin made it clear that he would not share state power with the oligarchs. Putin and the oligarchs came to a consensus in which Putin allowed them to retain their property in return for non-interference of the oligarchs into the state affairs. However, the question concerning the ownership of energy companies was the biggest obstacle to the maintenance of the consensus because energy companies controlled by the oligarchs could not be used effectively by the Russian state as reliable foreign policy instruments. The strategy pursued in the ownership of energy companies had two dimensions. The first one is the direct state control over the shares of the energy sector. The second one is to make the state-friendly businessmen and bureaucrats in charge of the administration of the energy 13 Sinan Oğan, “Politics and Oligarchs in Russia” TÜRKSAM, last modified October 5, 2004, accessed April 12, 2012, http:// www.turksam.org.tr/a113 9 companies. Putin stated that he did not oppose capitalism per se on the condition that private investment could only be possible under state control. 14 The oligarchs were forced to sell their shares to the state. Some of bureaucrats who turned into businessmen are listed below. Name Official Post Business Post Date Appointment Dmitry Medvedev Head, Presidential Administration Chairman June 2002 Administration Deputy head, Presidential Admin Chairman, Igor Sechin Deputy head, Presidential Admin Chairman, Rosneft Yevgeny Shkolov Former aide Medvedev Arkady Dvorkovich Head, Presidential Experts’ Directorate Board of directors, August 2004 Transneft “ “ Board of directors, Sukhoy September 2004 Sergei Vyazalov Deputy head, Presidential Foreign Policy Directorate Board of directors, RZhD 24 October 2003 “ “ Board of directors, Svyazinvest September 2003 Igor Shuvalov Aide to the President Board of directors, July 2004 RZhD Vladislav Surkov Gazprom of August 2004 Transnefteprodukt 27 July 2004 to Board of directors, August 2004 Transneft 14 Michael Fredholm, The Russian Energy Strategy & Energy Policy: Pipeline Diplomacy or Mutual Dependence (Watchfield: Defence Academy of United Kingdom, 2005), 15. 10 Viktor Ivanov Aide to the President Chairman, Aeroflot 23 October 2004 Sergei Prikhodko Aide to the President Chairman, TRV April 2003 “ “ Board of directors, Sukhoy September 2003 “ “ Chairman, TVEL 23 October 2004 Mikhail Lesin Advisor President Aleksei Gromov Press-secretary to the President Board of directors, 30 June 2004 Aleksandr Anoshkin Aide to Medvedev Board of directors, September 2001 Svyazinvest Aleksei Miller Friend of Putin from St Petersburg President, Gazprom Igor Yusufov President’s Special Representative Board of Directors, June 2005 Gazprom to the Board of directors, 30 June 2004 Channel One Channel One May 2001 15 Apparatchik system in the Soviet era was implemented in order to control energy and media sector which have a big influence on policy-making process in foreign policy of Russia. Ghaleb classifies new system in Russian economy as ‘post-Soviet Russian style laissez-faire capitalism.’16 The notable oligarchs such as Boris Berezovsky, Vladimir 15 Ibid., 16. Alexander Ghaleb, Natural Gas as An Instrument of Russian State Power (Carlisle: Strategic Studies Institute, 2011), 53. 16 11 Gusinksy fled the country. Those who stayed were expected to be loyal to the Russian administration in order to avoid the consequences. The consequences for not being loyal to the regime proved to be severe as we saw in Khodorkovsky case. Once he was a small cafe owner in perestroika, he became the wealthiest man in Russia. Mikhail Khodorkovsky became the owner of oil company Yukos during the privatization in Yeltsin’s presidential term. Khodorkovsky’s clamorous opposition to Putin administration and his search new foreign partners to his oil companies ended his success story. He was in touch with Exxonmobile for Yukos and Chinese oil companies for Yuganskneftegas to convince them to buy larger shares in Yukos because he was searching allies against Kremlin for his political ambitions. On December 19, 2004 the Russian government auctioned off Yuganskneftegas. The state owned company Rosneft bought Yuganskneftegas, ultimately. On May 31, 2004 Khodorkovsky was sentenced to nine years imprisonment. Putin addressed this conviction as the victory over corruption. 17 Kremlin underscored three important headlines for the oligarchs that would influence their relations with the state. The first rule was the state would no longer tolerate the interference and opposition of the oligarchs. The second rule was the state would not allow the ownership of the shares of the foreign companies in strategically important sectors. The final rule was if the oligarchs do not follow first and second rule, they might face ‘corruption’ charges for their misconducts in Yeltsin era. 2. b. Ukraine- Russia gas crisis In 2005, Victor Yushchenko, who had pro-Western stance became president after the fraudulent elections were renewed. Ukraine is a bridge which links the Russian gas to European countries. The loss of this bridge was unacceptable to Russia. Putin signaled the gas wars in 2004, when Yushchenko was elected in 2004: “Ukraine should think twice about any 17 Elizabeth Wishnick, “Russia and The CIS in 2005: Promoting East Asian Oil Diplomacy, Containing Change in Central Asia, “ Asian Survey 46, no.1 (2006): 69. 12 such embrace of the West.” 18 It was clear that Russian administration would not maintain to supply gas to Ukraine on low prices. Ukraine was paying $ 50 per thousand cubic meters of gas; Russia was looking for $ 230 before talks halted.19 The privilege of paying low prices for gas was kept for the states under Russian sphere of influence. Russia cut off gas to Ukraine led to the crisis in 2006. Europe was much affected by the crisis between Ukraine and Russia because Ukraine kept gas which was supposed to be delivered to Europe. With European pressure Ukraine and Russia reached an agreement. The overall price Ukraine will pay will be $ 95 per 1000 cubic meters. It will also get paid 47% more for transporting Russian gas to Europe. 20 Gazprom acted as a department of foreign ministry during the crisis. Russia indicated that it would not tolerate and finance pro-Western regimes in its sphere of influence. The crisis also showed the European dependency on Russian energy supply. Thus, the EU accelerated its endeavors to diversify the Caspian energy sources. 3. NABUCCO PROJECT European countries sought South Caucasus and Turkey route as an alternative to bring Caspian oil and gas to Europe to reduce the dependence on Russia. The negotiation began in 2002 and concluded in 2009 with an agreement signed in 2009 among Turkey, Romania, Hungary, and Austria. The energy sources in Central Asia was planned to be delivered via Turkey to Romania and distributed to Europe. The project was advertised as the project of the century which would secure energy supply to Europe. However, the biggest challenge to the project was the uncertainty of the cooperation of the energy supplier countries in Central 18 Alexander Ghaleb, Natural Gas as An Instrument of Russian State Power (Carlisle: Strategic Studies Institute, 2011), 90. 19 “Putin’s Kremlin Flexes Its Muscles With Gazprom,” forbes.com, last modified January 2, 2006, http://www.forbes.com/2006/01/02/putin-gazprom-ukraine-cx_po_0102autofacescan02.html 20 “Ukraine and Russia reach gas deal, “ bbc.co.uk, last modified January 4, 2006, http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/4579648.stm 13 Asia. Despite the statements which indicated the willingness to join to Nabucco project, no country in Central Asia dared to defy Russia openly. The control over the ‘Near Abroad’ countries was tightened. Russia tried to make new energy deals with Central Asian counties to prevent independent actions of those states by exercising its tutelary position over them. Russia developed an alternative route by convincing Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan to sell their gas to Russia firstly. Then, the gas is to be delivered through Russian soil to Europe. Thus, the supply side of Nabucco project was weakened. After 2008 war with Georgia Russia asserted dominant position over South Caucasus. The energy route of South Caucasus was secured by Russian ‘peacekeeping’ forces in Abkhazia and South Ossetia. This event was another blow to Nabucco project. On the other hand, the situation in Iran, which was supposed to be another supplier to the project, is getting more unstable day by day. The European countries were forced to cut off their oil supplies from Iran almost completely with the insistence of the USA for the embargos. Therefore, the European countries became more dependent on Russian supply. Russia countered this project by setting new projects through which it will be able to maintain its monopoly on the delivery of Caspian energy resources to Europe. South Stream and Nord Stream are the projects which enable Russia to make bilateral agreements with European states. South Stream project aims at connecting Russia and South Eastern Europe via pipeline system which would be constructed under the Black Sea. This project is seen as rival project despite Russian officials’ denial. Considering the costs of building pipeline South Stream seems to be more a strategic than a cost-efficient option to Russian gas to Europe. Gas 14 transportation to Europe will be contacted with Gazprom even if it originally stems from a Central Asian country.21 Nord Stream is a project which links Germany and Russia with the pipeline under Baltic Sea. It created too much controversy in the EU because this project eliminates the leverage of transit countries in Eastern Europe against Russia for delivering Russian energy supply to Europe. Europe appears to have different strategic considerations concerning energy security. Russia takes advantage of this lack of disagreement between Old Europe and New Europe and defines the rule of the game.22 Again, strategic considerations are taken into account instead of economic considerations for Nord Stream project. Russia’s undersea Nord Stream pipeline will cost three times more than a pipeline system which would pass through the territories of Lithuania and Poland.23 With this project Russia not only prevents alternative energy route that would undermine its energy-power status but also it is able to create division among EU member states concerning the energy politics of Europe. All these attempts of Russia to prevent Nabucco project from turning into reality show that Russia perceive its energy card over Europe as an important foreign policy tool. It developed several energy deals with both European countries and Central Asian countries to maintain its energy supplier status for Europe. 4. CONCLUSION According to Putin, the dissolution of the Soviet Union was the biggest geopolitical catastrophe in the 20th century. The withdrawal of Soviet forces from former-Soviet territories created vacuum in that area. Nonetheless, Russia did not give up its privilege interests over its 21 Caroline Dieckhöner, “Simulating security of supply effects of the Nabucco and South Stream projects for the European natural gas market, “Institute of Energy Economics (2010): 6. 22 Alexander Ghaleb, Natural Gas as An Instrument of Russian State Power (Carlisle: Strategic Studies Institute, 2011),111. 23 Zeyno Baran, “ EU Energy Security: Time to End Russian Leverage,” The Washington Quaterly Autumn (2007): 135. 15 ‘Near Abroad’. Energy politics has been vital tool of Russia to counter Western influence on its sphere of influence. Due to fractured structure of the Russian politics in 1990s Russia could not use this power effectively. Privatization of energy companies during Yeltsin’s presidential term prevented Russian state from utilizing energy card. The oligarchs who controlled the energy sector preferred to be in conformity with the Western powers. Putin’s presidential term brought energy companies under state friendly businessmen and former Kremlin bureaucrats. Thus, energy companies evolved into foreign policy agents of the state. The rise in energy prices also helped Russian economy to develop. This development in the economy enabled Russia to act more independently in terms of foreign policy. Russia used energy card as the sword of Damocles over Europe After experiences gas crisis with Russia, Europe sought new ways to bring Caspian energy sources to the continent. Nabucco project aims at realizing that purpose. Nevertheless, it was understood that no country would be supplier at the expense of Russia. 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