52
Content
Demographic transition –
shaping society under
changed framework requirements
Preamble
The situation of young people and of youth (associations’) work is
subject to permanent changes. At present and in the foreseeable future
particularly the societal framework will shaped considerably by
demographic transition.
Content:
Preamble
A description of the situation
Effects on some subject areas and demands
Imprint
Publisher
Deutscher Bundesjugendring e.V.
Mühlendamm 3
10178 Berlin
Fon:
+49 (0) 30 / 400 404 - 00
Fax:
+49 (0) 30 / 400 404 - 22
E-Mail: [email protected]
website: www.dbjr.de
Daniel Grein (V.i.S.d.P.)
photos: studioprokopy werbeagentur & fotostudio (S. 3, 8), dieprojektoren (S. 1, 5,
7), Journalistenbüro Röhr : Wenzel (S. 10)
January 2008
When talking about demographic transition at the moment, usually
the decrease of the population and a changed age structure are the central
issues. However, this is but a small aspect of the actual demographic
development. Many other aspects such as the change in family structures,
migration to the cities, regionally differing changes in the (numeric)
gender ratio, the different composition of the population regarding
cultural background, the quota of the respective educational attainment
and so on constitute a need for action in the best interest of both the
currently young and future generations.
The changes summed up as “demographic transition” are regularly
perceived by media and public as a crisis and a danger which have to be
met with hectic measures. The German Federal Youth Council clearly
dissociates itself from this perception. The child and youth welfare
associations in Germany consider the described processes rather as a
chance which takes the form of potential for creativity and new methods.
This chance should be seized and used in anticipation in the interest of
children and young people. A success can only be reached if all
responsible bodies, particularly in the political and administrative arenas,
recognize the developments in their full breadth with all their facets and
take them into account for all long- and mid-term planning. This means to
take heed especially of young people's and children's concerns.
The German Federal Youth Council rejects all attempts to use the
demographic transition as an excuse for a reduction in spending and
offers of services at the expense of children and young people. Financial
resources that are no longer needed for the maintenance of offers and
payments due to i.e. the decrease in numbers of children and young
people in our society must be re-allocated to the amelioration of quality
and new offers of services. This applies to the fields of politics regarding
youth welfare and education as well as on many others.
Position
The consolidation of the national budget often cited
in this context and with the albeit justified reason of
consideration and worry for the future generations is
from our point of view no end in itself and can hence
not serve as a justification for more and more cuts at the
expense e. g. youth welfare.
We also criticise that the justification “the demographic transition will straighten it out” is used as an
excuse for political inertia as can be witnessed for
example in the fields of vocational training and policies
towards the labour market.
To cite the demographic transition as a reason for
the problems of social security systems is in the opinion
of the German Federal Youth Council far too simplifying. To render these systems fit for the future, all the
causes like e.g. the reduction of revenues due to less
employment liable for social insurance have to be
analysed objectively and accordingly remedied. The
re-organisation of the social security systems must not
happen at the expense of the young generation alone.
Necessary burdens have to be carried in equal parts by
everyone.
In this paper the German Federal Youth Council
analyses the most important aspects of the demographic
transition and its effects concerning the situation of
young people and the work of youth organisations in
Germany. From this we draw conclusions for the work
of youth associations, deduce demands and substantiate from these existing demands those which are still topical with regards to the demographic transition.
The basis for the description of the situation and the
derived conclusions is the “11. koordinierte Bevölkerungsvorausrechnung für Deutschland” (11th co-ordinated population prognosis for Germany), issued in
2006, from the Federal Statistical Office as results of a
collaboration of the statistical offices on state and
federal level. As far as the prognosis was calculated
with different methods, an average value is taken for
the conclusions. It has to be taken into consideration
that the predicted developments do not constitute
absolute values but that the actual developments are
influenced by political measures and that statements
over several decades are no longer prognoses but
merely a mathematical conversion of the respective
assumptions.1
A description of the situation
Population
The prognoses assume that until the year 2050 the
German population will decrease from 82 million today
to 69 – 74 million inhabitants.2 The reason is an in
creasing difference between the number of deceased
and the newly born. The expected immigration
mitigates the resulting population decrease but can not
compensate it.
2
The development will differ substantially according to region- while southern and north-western Germany as well as in the Berlin metropolitan area an
increase of population will be visible, the population
will decrease substantially in the area of the “New
Länder” and a wedge-shaped corridor from the Ruhr
area towards the east.3 From 2020 on, the “islands of
growth” will become smaller; the reasons for this
regionally differing development are migratory
movements within Germany.
There will also be a clear disparity in small
sections. Neighbouring districts of the same state may
have different development. In urban agglomerations a
lesser decrease of the population is expected, whereas
the decrease will be all the more substantial in rural
areas.
Age structure
The population's age structure will shift towards the
older part. According to the average value of the population projection calculated by the Federal Statistical
Office, the number of births in 2050 will be half the
number of 60-year olds. Today the number is 75%. The
number of under 20-year olds will decrease from 16
millions today to 10 millions, the number of over 65year olds will increase from 16 millions today to 23
millions in 2050.4 The expected immigration to Germany can slow this development up but cannot stop it.
Migrational movements within Germany are mainly
made up by young people, thus the age structure in
regions most affected by that drain (rural areas, New
Länder) will shift additionally towards an older population. In metropolitan areas, however, the number of
young people will drop slower.
The development in change of the age structure
varies strongly between the regions. For example,
while in the city of Potsdam/state of Brandenburg the
number of under 20-year olds will only drop from
23,000 to 22,000 between 2002 and 2010, the number
of under 20-year olds in the Brandenburg district
Spree-Neiße will drop from 27,000 to 16,000 in the
same period of time.5
Gender ratio
The changes in numeric gender ratio and family
structure is most noticeable in the New Länder.6
In the New Länder a clear migration of women can
be observed since 1989. In 2004 there were only 90
women to 100 men in the important age group for
seeking a partner and foundation of family of 18-29
years. One of the reasons for this selective migration is
the fact that women have averagely better graduation
grades and qualification than men. Amongst other
reasons, the better education of women leads to their
searching more often than men for employment in the
western states or abroad.
It can be safely assumed that the growing inequali-
Demographic transition
ty between men and women in the New Länder will have noticeable effects for the demographic development
in the New Länder as the women who left will have
children elsewhere. This will lead to an even stronger
drop in population numbers in the New Länder's rural
areas will occur.
Alteration of family structure
In the 12.6 million family-households7 in Germany
2005, new forms of cohabitation gain ever more importance in comparison to traditional family structures
(married couple with child or children). A rise of 16.8
percent to 23.3 per cent between 1996 and 20058 of
family-households with these new forms of cohabitation (e.g. single mothers/fathers or non-married couples
with children) could be observed. Traditional family
structures still made up the majority with 76 per cent.
The 2.6 million households of single parents as
well as 14.7 million one-person households were the
prevalent form of households in Germany in 2005. It
can be assumed that the trend towards one-person
households will grow as the baby-boomers who are
now middle-aged will be in their retirement age and
senior citizens households are majorly (59 per cent)
one-person households even today.
Material standard of life
Although Germany is a wealthy country, the gap
between the poor and the rich has widened over the last
years.9 In this process the differences between different
regions have become more distinct or have at least
solidified.10
3
Children and youths are more and more prone to
poverty. Compared to 1997, in 2004 the poverty rate of
0 to 10-year-olds grew from 12.9 to 14.8 per cent and
from 16.2 to 18.4 per cent in the group of 11 to 20year-olds. Simultaneously single parent households and
families with more than two children face an increased
risk of poverty.11
There is a verifiable connection in Germany
between standard of life and access to education,
cultural and spare-time offers. Due to the decrease of
the total population on one hand and especially the
number of children and young people on the other, the
cost per person for maintaining the necessary infrastructure for societal participation (particularly of young
people) rise. For this reason the states and communities
are often unable to provide means for societal inclusion
all over the country. Therefore, the cost for the individual for the participation in these services rise, be it by
private financing or costs for mobility. As a result
participation is only possible for those with enough
financial resources. Through the subsidy of infrastructure and regions with declining population, children of
less well-off families are threatened by the disconnection from societal participation.12 This adds to the
effect that parents' precarious situation in life is increasingly conferred to their children.
The dismantling of infrastructure and other government services in several rural regions leads to the
migration of their mobile inhabitants who see opportunities for themselves in other regions. This respectively
leads to a downwards spiral in the region of origin and
a further dismantling of infrastructure because of the
once more rising cost per person. All in all a social
segregation between regions sets in, as this cycle slows
Position
this development in the target regions up or indeed even
reverses it. Of these marked differences in standard of
living it is mostly the children and young people who
are affected13: They are less mobile than adults and
therefore much more dependent on a working infrastructure.
In urban areas, such segregation processes can be
witnessed as well. Here too, quarters with a homogenous social structure (concerning unemployment, income, social welfare receivers, quota of immigrants,
participation in education) are forming where the
respective development is amplified by migrational
movements within the city.
High school graduates' level of qualification has
risen during the last 50 years.14 The number of students
at universities grew from about 832,000 in 1975 to
almost 1,986,000 in 2005.15 This is due to the growing
number of female students, which has multiplied by
more than three in the same period of time.16 However,
the transitional quota (the relation of those qualified to
higher education in comparison to the actual number of
students in tertiary education) is on the decrease.17
Through the decreasing number of children and
young people the total of people with higher education
is shrinking.18 This process will hit the educational
arena in Germany in delayed intervals. While the number of elementary pupils is already sinking, the number
of university students is rising for the time being.19 The
response to these shrinking processes is at the moment
the dismantling of educational infrastructure. This
affects mainly rural areas and regions which are already suffering from population losses. In Brandenburg
for example the number of state schools dropped from
941 in the school year 2004/05 to 844 in 2006/07.20 By
centralising the places of early education and schools as
well as the loss of extracurricular education opportunities (from libraries to activities of youth clubs etc.),
children and young people have to grapple with the
effects of the present treatment of the democratic
change. That means i.e. long distances combined with
the dependence on public transport and drastically reduced opportunities to participate in extracurricular
education.
Changes in cultural composition and integration
Migrational movements from and to Germany
differ more and more since the 1990ies in their composition. In Germany the annual net migration, that is the
annual difference of immi- and emigration, is positive
with the exception of the year 1998.
Germany being a populous country, as many as
780,175 immigrants could be registered in 2004.21
When putting the migration rates in relation to the total
population the number of immigrants per capita outweighs, yet not as clearly as in other EU-countries.
For the dimension of the foreign share of the popu-
4
lation of a country the naturalisation practise plays an
important role in addition to migration, the birth and the
mortality rate. Thus 7.3 millions foreign nationals were
living in Germany in 2005. From a socio-structural
view, what is more significant than the absolute number, is the relation of the number of foreign nationals to
the total population which was 8.8 per cent22 in Germany in 2005.
The immigration to Germany is distributed varyingly over the regions as well as between the genders.
Thus, in relation to the population e.g. Lower Saxony
has the highest per-capita-immigration followed by
Hamburg, Berlin and Baden-Württemberg. The lowest
numbers were generally registered in the New Länder.
The quota of women immigrating is lower than that of
men.23
The age structure of the immigrated population differs noticeably from that of the total population. The
quota of younger and middle-aged (18-39 years) is very
high among immigrants. In 2003, more than three quarters (76.8 per cent) were under the age of 40. This
quota was only 47.6 percent of the total population. The
situation in the age group of the over 65-year-olds is
reverse (2.6 per cent of immigrants as opposed to 18
per cent of the total population). Since the immigrants
are younger on the average than the total population,
they rejuvenate the age structure of the total population.24
Effects on some subject areas and demands
Education
Education is, particularly in the course of demographic change, one of the most important preconditions
for shaping the future. From the expected numeric
changes in the population's structure manifold challenges with respect to quality and quantity of educational
institutions arise.
Education as a precondition for shaping the future
comprises that every child and every youth have a right
to education and optimal development of her/his mental and physical abilities, whereas the right to education is not limited to formal education, but encompasses non-formal and informal education. Integrated
education has to have the central aim to enable the
individual to lead a self-determined, self-dependent life
and participate in social and economical life as well as
in societal development.25
Formal education
Growing social problems, augmented challenges in
integration and the – not least because of demographic
change – changing societal circumstances lead to higher demands towards schools. Social integration is
Demographic transition
5
The access to tertiary education is strongly determined by social factors. Top priority is thus to strengthen the equality of opportunity in education during
every stage of life and education. Entry requirements to
tertiary education should be such that they enable more
young people, including those with completed apprenticeships, to study.
Non-formal education
more and more a focus of work in schools. Hence
remedial instructions, dispositional differentiating and
social monitoring and social work in all school types
must have a higher significance than it has been the
case. Because of the decrease of pupil numbers, financial means can be allocated according to quality rather
than quantity, which offers the chance to implement
this. Concretely, e.g. the decrease in pupil numbers
offers the opportunity to reduce the number of students
per class. This also entails the opportunity of more infantile education and strengthening elementary schools
as this is the place to secure equality of opportunity and
equitableness for all children from the very start and lay
the foundations for education and formation.
Vocational training
The effects and challenges of demographic change
do not only pose requirements to the school system but
also to vocational training. Since the early 90ies there is
a crisis in the apprenticeship market that excludes
young people from participating in professional and
socio-cultural life. Even today a shortage in skilled
workers can be observed. This trend will grow worse in
the future. However, Germany is dependent on welltrained, skilled workers. It is the responsibility of both
government and society – particularly economic actors
– to make sure that youths can complete vocational
training of their choosing.26
The decrease of high school graduates of one agegroup and the connected decrease of demand for
apprenticeships in the job market is no solution to the
problem of vocational training. Rather the trend seems
to be that both problems described will grow worse
simultaneously. For one thing there will be fewer
youths – from employers’ point of view – with the
necessary qualifications, who are interested in vocational training, for another there will continue to be a fraction of youths that will not be offered an apprenticeship
because they are deemed unfit for training without an
amelioration of the quality of the education offered at
school.
Academic education
A successful conduct of life and comprehensive
participation in societal life are built upon formative
processes within the families, in childcare and not least
in youth work. In this context it is important to emphasise that no institution has a monopoly on education
according to the holistic concept of education that
forms the basis of our approach. Every educational
pillar, in particular the non-formal ones, are called upon
to contribute with all their competences and abilities.
Child and youth work is about the conveying of
social and personal competences, whereas a superior
aim is to enable educational processes and to create
learning opportunities. Recent studies show that
especially in youth associations non-formal competences are acquired that have a lasting biographical effect.
Therefore the German Federal Youth
Council demands:
The insight that school should not be treated as the
paramount place of education. A more comprehensive understanding of education is necessary,
which stipulates the cooperation and inclusion of
all places of education. Child and youth welfare,
youth associations, childcare, schools and vocational institutions of education must all be comprehended as places of education and be advanced accordingly to secure and ameliorate the chances for
education and participation of all young people in
their respective stage and circumstances of life.
The amount of financial means spent on schooling
at the moment must not be reduced because of a demographically caused decrease in the number of
students. Those means have to be used to lift the
overall quality of the educational system and to
provide financial equipment and the manpower so
that the societal and education policy demands can
be met. The aim of all efforts must be to enable
each young person to get the individually best possible
graduation.
Hence,
an
increase in spending for all educational sectors to
match international standards is necessary. In Germany 17 per cent of the gross domestic product
(GDP) are spent on one student which makes markedly less than in international comparison, which
makes 20 per cent of the respective GDP.27
(Detailed positions and demands of the German Federal Youth Council for necessary amelioration of the quality
of
Position
6
formal education in Germany amongst others can be found
in the resolution “Laut werden - für bessere Schule” of the
76th general assembly and in the “Jugendpolitischen Eckpunktepapier des Deutschen Bundesjugendrings zur Bildung”, adopted by the 77th General Assembly.)
school, politics and society are to be strengthened
and developed.
The different forms with a claim to facilitate better
youth participation such as youth polls, youth
hearings, participation in schools, youth parliaments on the communal level, should be evaluated
according to the degree to which they enable an effective shaping of politics by young people.
The efforts of scholastic and extracurricular
political education must be enhanced, so that all
forms of participation can be duly filled by young
people.
Specific requirements of children and young people
must also be met in areas of public life.
(Further positions and demands of the German Federal
Youth Council on Vocational training and education can
be found amongst others in the position paper „Zukunft der
Arbeit und soziale Sicherheit“, in the resolution „Ausbildungsplatzsituation“ of the 76th general assembly and in
the resolution „Ausbildungs- und Arbeitsplätze statt ´Generation Praktikum´“ of the 78th general assembly.)
Youth work and youth association's
work
To offer a chance to all young people, an
adequate education has to be secured for all. The
dual system of vocational training is the basis for
job-related education and therefore has to be maintained and further developed. In order to safeguard
this, the federal government should introduce a
compulsory pay-as-you-go financing and take care
to maintain the principle of the three-year training
within the dual system so as to ensure the quality of
the vocational education.28 Government, trade
unions, and employers alike are in charge to shape
the necessary processes together.
Tuition fees thwart the demographically necessary
aim to increase the number of tertiary education
students and graduates and we reject them for that
very reason. Tuition fees do not satisfy the basic
principle of equality of opportunity and promoting
all abilities, they reduce the opportunity to take up
studies and lead to longer duration of studies.
(More positions of the German Federal Youth Council on
tuition fees can be found in the education policy position paper “Bildung ist Zukunft” of the 71st general assembly.)
Participation
Youths under 18 are excluded from direct forms of
political decision processes (elections or ballots). Due
to the change in the population's composition the numeric influence of younger eligible voters is sinking.
This may enforce the trend to orientate policy towards the older generation's needs. The implicit danger
of weighing different interests is that the long-term effects of a certain policy on the following generations
carry not as much weight as the more present effects on
the already strong generation of older people does.
Therefore the German Federal Youth
Council demands:
The age of becoming eligible for voting has to be
lowered to 14 years, in addition to different forms
of participation. Voting by proxy in whatever form
is still rejected by the German Federal Youth Council.29
Methods and forms, in accordance with the
criteria of the German Federal Youth Council30,
that enable or enhance participation of children and
young people in all the respective areas like family,
As soon as the prognosticated decrease in the number of under 20-year-olds occurs, there will be considerable effects on youth work in general and on youth
association's work in particular. Where the number of
children and youths decreases noticeably, the effects
such as smaller groups, longer distances and so on,
demand new forms of offers and methods. Additionally the costs there increase in proportion to the number
of young people. The claim “every young person has a
right to an advancement of his/her development and
education to become a self dependent and active member of the community”31 remains obligatory. Therefore, youth work must not be withdrawn area-wide even
though the number of young people is declining. Children and young people in ever more sparsely populated
areas have a full claim to the benefits of youth work and
youth welfare service.
However, if public responsible bodies should withdraw any further, associations, initiatives and communities of specific interests are forced to work the field
virtually alone. With reduced or inexistent full-time
professional support, many associations would have
severe problems to maintain their offers. As a result
social and cultural facilities would collapse and at
worst, even entire regional structures which would in
turn trigger off the withdrawal of social partners and
non-governmental agencies from rural and infrastructurally weak regions. In the wake of this, interested young
people would have to travel longer distances, which is
difficult for young people at any rate, to take part in
cultural or social events32. The tendency to migration
into the cities from these regions would increase. Rightwing extremist organisations would have a walk-over
with gaining a foothold in the disadvantaged regions, as
was the case in the past.
The trend of communes and states to withdraw
from youth work can already be observed and gives
reason to fear that a decrease in potential audience for
benefits and offers of youth work will lead to budget
cuts in this field.
Demographic transition
This would affect mostly leisure time facilities, cultural events, facilities like libraries or youth centres and
other youth work benefits (e.g. assisted living, girls'
centres) as well as youth associations. The duties and
responsibilities of the KJHG (youth law) could no
longer be fulfilled satisfactorily.
Children's and youth organisations and their mergers are already rising to the challenges. They are
developing new, e.g. mobile forms of offers, methods
and structures. The extension of co-operation between
individual associations on site is checked, too, without
giving up the necessary plurality of the youth association domain. The goal is to maintain offers and facilities for young people in all regions, also in the rural
regions most affected by migration to the cities and thus
to fulfil their responsibilities according to §§ 11 and 12
KJHG. Associations are striving to keep up a large
variety of offers.
Even though the proportion of young people volunteering their time is expected to remain even or increase slightly, the total number of honorary workers will
decrease as the number of young people in general will
decrease. This aggravates the implementation of the
above mentioned goals additionally.
Children's and youth associations and councils are
not in the position to compensate for the dwindling
governmental and communal support. Necessary i.e. in
particular financial expenses to maintain a minimum of
infrastructure remain even in spite of the decreasing
number of children and youths. Additional material and
human resources are necessary to establish new forms
of offers and benefits.
7
To avoid the described effects and to
support children's and youth associations in their activities, the German Federal Youth Council has the following
demands from federal government, states and communes:
In order to curb the growing problems for youths
caused by the decrease of young people in proportion to the total population and to recognize young
people's needs and demands to society, a multifarious and high quality youth work has to be safeguarded in all of Germany's regions. Sparsely populated regions must not be “given up” or
surrendered to radical tendencies. Children and
youth associations and their pools must be strengthened in these tasks.
According to §11 KJHG federal government, states
and communes are obliged to offer youth work to
all young people. This statutory “basic supply”
should be specified as binding in federal law.
The demographically decreasing number of
potential users of facilities and offers and the resulting financial resources released by the decreasing
need for quantity of youth work facilities and offers
should be used for a higher quality of benefits and
offers.
In order to get more youths to volunteer their
time in spite of the decrease in numbers of young
people in society, honorary commitment should be
rewarded, for example by crediting honorary commitment against state grant covering tuition and
fees, positive taking into account in applications,
internships, studies and terms of waiting, extension
of exemptions as well as in the recognition by tax
reliefs.33
Position
Integration
Without immigration the decrease of population
would be more noticeable. Unfortunately the potentials
implied by immigration still remain unused. On one
hand the still restrictive immigration policy forestalls
all people wishing to live and to enrich this country getting the opportunity to do so. On the other hand, people
with a migrational background are still disadvantaged.34 Often they are barred of prospects. Children and
young people growing up under these conditions are
largely excluded from societal participation.
Germany is an immigration country. The debate on
the pros and cons is out of date. From the viewpoint of
the German Federal Youth Council, reality has to be
recognised and the discriminating imbalance between
majority and minority has to be remediated.
Children and youth organisations and their mergers
are already taking this into account. They open up for
people with migrational background more and more,
seek co-operation with immigrant organisations and
motivate them to participate in youth councils.
The following demands arise from the
German Federal Youth Council's point
of view:
Germany needs a modern immigration legislation
that is no longer dominated by defence but by allowing the opportunities that come along with migration. As this is not yet the case, it is the federal legislator's duty to act accordingly. It is important to
see immigration as a chance, not as a risk. States
and communes need to put this idea into action
through according guidelines and administrative regulations when implementing the current immigration law.
Young people with migrational background must
have equal access to all important and essential areas of society such as access to education and the job
market as well as fair participation and involvement in decision-making processes. This has to be
safeguarded by corresponding laws and regulations. We demand a right to vote on the communal
level for non-EU-citizens who have their permanent residence in Germany.
The increasing intercultural opening and extension
of children and youth associations' integrational offers must be recognized and facilitated more intensively by the government and public responsible
bodies.
(Further positions of the German Federal Youth Council on
the matter can be found among others in the position paper
“Potentiale nutzen und ausbauen! - Jugendverbände und die
Integration von Kinder und Jugendlichen mit Migrationshintergrund” enacted by the 77th General Assembly.)
8
Infrastructure
Sense of responsibility and creativity are the very
means to come up against demographic transition with
respect to infrastructure. The advancement of equal opportunities and participation for all children and young
people are an essential part of a sustainable society and
lie particularly in the hands of public responsibility.
Public infrastructure is very important for the development of children and young people. Public transport,
leisure time facilities, information centres, youth facilities, access to the internet pertain to that infrastructure.
If these necessities are not maintained in regions with
decreasing population, these regions and city quarters
would be further marginalised or respectively ghettoised. Children and young people have a high need for
mobility. Decreasing population numbers and centralised infrastructure and offers increase the radius of
mobility noticeably. The resulting distances cannot be
overcome by children and young people themselves (by
foot or bicycle). Public transport often poses the only
means of transport.
Modern forms of communication gain more and
more importance. Children and young people increasingly use the internet to understand and access the
world. It is the most used means of communication and
becomes more and more a basis for societal participation. In structurally weak regions it offers big chances
that are still insufficiently used. It is the obligation of
the government (as defined in article 87(1) GG35, German constitutional law), to supply the technical as well
as the educational preconditions.
Demographic transition
Hence result the following demands of
the German Federal Youth Council:
Equality of opportunity and participation must be
granted to all children regardless of the region they
live in.
Public infrastructure and transport are part of a provision of existence. Hence they are the responsibility of the government and must be maintained in a
reasonable way in regions with decreasing population, too. The necessary financial resources for public infrastructure and transport must be allotted to
the communes.
Potentials for creativity and new ways demographic transition entails must be utilised. A changed,
open-minded perception of the public administration with respect to alternative ideas is essential.
Concepts like citizens’ buses or mobile libraries have to be seized and supported.
In accordance with the constitutional obligation,
the federal government is called upon to supply
children and young people in regions with a decreasing population with sufficient means of communication, especially modern internet communication.
The government, public administration and
society are called upon to employ modern means of
communication to a larger degree so as to enable
children and young people societal participation,
particularly in regions with deficient infrastructure.
Participatory processes must respectively be adapted in their methodology.
It is true for all communes and regions that the creation and maintenance of a social infrastructure
catering to the needs of young people (child care facilities, youth and educational facilities, affordable
housing for families, jobs) are amongst the most
important factors to counter migration to the cities.
Social security systems
In the public debate, demographic transition is
depicted as a threat to the social security systems in
general and the pension scheme in particular. It is disregarded that the revenue problems of e.g. a pay-asyou-go financing based pension scheme are not caused
by the small portion of young people but caused by the
loss and reduction of jobs liable to social security
contribution. It is therefore essential to distribute the
necessary burdens fairly.
This must be accomplished by broadening the
financial basis by incorporating into standardized
social security systems all economically active people
as public servants and the self-employed.
The thought of a solidarily financed transfer must
be maintained and furthered. It is fair for all generations
in this context to guarantee a secure standard of life in
old age for all i.e. also today's young people without
reducing today's standard of life because of the necessary spending. In the face of growing productivity in
9
spite of demographic transition there is no material economic necessity to question securing the standard of
life through the pension scheme.36
Child and youth poverty is increasing. Obviously,
children pose, at least in single-parent households and
families with more than two children, a higher poverty
risk. Apart from child poverty being unacceptable in a
rich society like Germany, it has also effects on demographic transition. Social security systems must be
adapted to countervail this trend.
From the German Federal Youth Council's point of view the following demands arise:
For the short-term, the “Ehegattensplitting” (tax
system in which husband and wife each pay
income tax on half the total of their combined incomes) should be abrogated in favour of more support for families with children and benefits for children (child care).37
For the short-term single-parent households and families with many children should be systematically
supported.
The pension scheme must be reformed into an allocation based system securing standard of life now
and in old age.
In the middle-term perspective, all economically
active people (including public servants and selfemployed) and all forms of income must be integrated in pay-as-you-go systems of the pension
scheme and health insurance.38
A tax financed (activity-independent) basic
salary without a poverty test and obligation to gainful employment should be introduced in the longterm.39
(Detailed ideas, positions and demands of the German
Federal Youth Council for the reform of the social security
system can be found in the youth policy paper „Alterssicherung“ (resolution of the 78th General Assembly), „Zukunft
der Arbeit und soziale Sicherheit“ and „Gesundheitspolitik
für Kinder und Jugendliche muss die soziale Umverteilung
stärken - deshalb: Bürgerversicherung“ (both resolutions of
the 77th General Assembly.))
Summary
The decrease in population and the changed age
structure are but a small clipping from the picture of
demographic developments from whom a need for
action in the interest of young people derives. Contrary
to the perception of demographic transition by the public and the media as a danger, the children and youth
associations in Germany see in it a potential for creativity and new methods, too.
The German Federal Youth Council rejects all
attempts to use demographic transition as a reason for
reducing offers and benefits or indeed for inactive politics at the expense of children and young people.
Position
10
people in political and other
issues of importance for the
young, voting age must be
generally lowered to 14
years in addition to an extension of other forms of
participation.
Should the prognosticated decrease in numbers of
the 20-year-olds set in, substantial effects on youth
work in general and youth
associations work in particular will occur. The entitlement to advancement of the
development of every
young person remains obligatory. Therefore youth
work must not withdraw
area-wide in spite of the
number of young people decreasing. Financial means
which are no longer needed
to maintain the necessary
quantity due to demographic change, must be used
to improve the quality of all
offers
and
Demographic transition is not the reason for the
social security system's problems. The reasons must be
objectively analysed and remedied accordingly.
Other elements such as growth in productivity must be
taken into consideration. The necessary burdens must
be distributed fairly amongst the entire population stratum and amongst all generations.
benefits.
That means concretely for some areas of young
people's lives:
Without immigration the decrease in of the population in Germany would be much more significant,
unfortunately potentials of immigration remain unused.
To give more people the chance to live in Germany, the
country needs a modern immigration legislative, which
is no longer imbued by a sense of defence but one that
takes into account the chances of immigration. Young
people with migrational background must have equal
access to all essential and important areas of society.
In relation to the demographic transition, education
becomes one of the most important preconditions for
shaping the future. The financial means currently spent
on education must not be reduced because of a decreasing number of pupils. They have to be used to ameliorate the quality of the educational system.
The decrease of pupils leaving school per year and
the ensuing decrease of trainees and apprentices in the
job market is not a solution for the problem in the job
training market. In order to give all young people a
chance and to counter the skills shortage, an adequate
training for all young people must be secured. Dual job
training is the basis of vocational training and must be
maintained and developed further.
Tuition fees thwart the, from a demographic point
of view, necessary goal to increase the number of people completing tertiary education. Tuition fees are
hence rejected, too.
To secure a more intensive participation for young
Children and youth associations and their mergers
are already responding to the challenges. They are
developing new, e.g. mobile offers, methods and structures. The “basic supply” with offers and benefits of
youth work as stated in the KJHG should be constituted
obligatory by the federal legislator.
Public infrastructure is very important for the development of children and youths.
Equality of opportunity and participation must be
guaranteed to all children and youths, regardless of the
region they live in. Public infrastructure and transport
in regions with dwindling population numbers must be
maintained to a reasonable degree.
The necessary reform of the social security system
must not happen at the expense of certain parts of the
population or generations. The idea of a solidarily
financed transfer must be kept up and further developed.
Demographic transition
Works cited:
Destatis (2006): 11. Koordinierte Bevölkerungsvorausschätzung des Statistischen Bundesamtes 2006, mittlere
Prognosevariante
BBR (2006): Bevölkerungsprognose des Bundesamtes für
Bauwesen und Raumordnung 2002-2020, Bonn 2006
Rainer Geißler (2002): Die Sozialstruktur Deutschlands,
Bundeszentrale für politische Bildung, Bonn 2002
B. Schäfers (1998): Sozialstruktur und sozialer Wandel in
Deutschland, 1998
BMBF (2006): Konsortium Bildungsberichterstattung „Bildung in Deutschland“ (Nationaler Bildungsbericht), Bonn
2006
German Federal Youth Council (2002): „Mitwirkung mit
Wirkung - Positionsbeschreibung des
Deutschen Bundesjugendrings zur Partizipation von Kindern und Jugendlichen in politischen
Zusammenhängen und Kriterienkatalog“ (Beschluss der
75. Vollversammlung des Deutschen Bundesjugendrings
2002)
German Federal Youth Council (2003): „Laut werden - für
bessere Schule“ (Beschluss der 76. Vollversammlung des
DBJR vom 01.11.2003)
German Federal Youth Council (2003a): „Keine Stellvertreterregelung beim Wahlrecht für Kinder und Jugendliche“ (Beschluss des Hauptausschusses vom 12.12.2003)
German Federal Youth Council (2003b): „Ausbildungsplatzsituation“ (Beschluss der 76. Vollversammlung 2003)
German Federal Youth Council (2004): „Jugendpolitisches
Eckpunktepapier des Deutschen Bundesjugendring - Jugend braucht Gestaltungsmacht“ (Beschluss der 77. Vollversammlung des Deutschen Bundesjugendrings 2004)
German Federal Youth Council (2004a): „Zukunft der Arbeit und soziale Sicherheit“ (Beschluss der 77. Vollversammlung 2004)
German Federal Youth Council (2005): „Bessere Bedingungen des Aufwachsens und mehr Bildung für Kinder von
null bis sechs Jahren in Deutschland“ (Beschluss des
Hauptausschusses vom 12.05.2005)
German Federal Youth Council (2005a): „Alterssicherung
– Jugendpolitisches Eckpunktepapier“ (Beschluss der 78.
Vollversammlung 2005)
German Federal Youth Council (2006): „Wahlalter senken
auf 14 Jahre“ (Beschluss der 79. Vollversammlung 2006)
11
Anmerkungen:
1
2 Statistisches Bundesamt 2006
3 BBR 2006
4 Destatis 2006
5 Landesbetrieb für Datenverarbeitung und Statistik Land Brandenburg.
6 The 11th co-ordinated population prognosis for Germany does not
contain any direct numbers informing on the changes in numeric gender ratio.
7 Destatis 2006
8 Press release 320 of the Federal Statistical Office issued on
09.08.2006
9 Rainer Geißler (2002), S. 81f
10 as p.ex..: between Bremen and Bremerhafen or after the reunification of Berlin and Brandenburg
11 Federal Statisctical Office (2006): Datenreport 2006, S. 616 ff.
12 vgl. Rainer Geißler (2002)
13 vgl. www.destatis.de
14 vgl. B. Schäfers (1998)
15 Federal Statisctical Office Statistisches Bundesamt: www.destatis.de
-> Lange Reihen -> Bildung
16 Federal Statisctical Office: www.destatis.de -> Lange Reihen -> Bildung
17 BMBF 2006, S.102
18 BMBF 2006, S.5
19 BMBF 2006, S.6
20 Land Brandenburg, Ministerium für Bildung, Jugend und Sport:
www.mbjs.brandenburg.de -> Zahl d. Schulen
21 Federal Government Commissioner for Migration, Refugees and Integration.
22 www.destatis.de Gebiete und Bevölkerung Ausländische Bevölkerung Stand 31.12.2005
23 Federal Government Commissioner for Migration, Refugees and Integration.
24 Federal Government Commissioner for Migration, Refugees and Integration.
25 German Youth Council 2003
26 For further demands of the German Youth Council see policy papers „Sofort umsteuern“ of the 79th General Assembly 2006 and
„Ausbildungs- und Arbeitsplätze statt „Generation Praktikum“ of the
7th General Assembly 2005.
27 OECD 2006, S. 18
28 German Youth Council 2003b
29 German Youth Council 2006, German Youth Council 2003a
30 German Youth Council 2002, German Youth Council 2004, German
Youth Council 2006
31 Kinder- und Jugendhilfegesetz (KJHG) § 1 (1)
32 see paragraph infrastructure
33 For further demands of the German Youth Council on tuition fees
see the education policy paper „Bildung ist Zukunft“ of the 71th General Assembly 1998.
34 Federal Government Commissioner for Migration, Refugees and Integration.
35 „(1) Nach Maßgabe eines Bundesgesetzes, das der Zustimmung des
Bundesrates bedarf, gewährleistet der Bund im Bereich des Postwesens und der Telekommunikation flächendeckend angemessene und
ausreichende Dienstleistungen.“ (GG Art 87f)
36 German Youth Council 2005a
37 German Youth Council 2005
38 German Youth Council 2005a
39 German Youth Council 2004a
OECD (2006): OECD-Veröffentlichung „Bildung auf einen Blick“ - Wesentliche Aussagen in der Ausgabe 2006,
BMBF und KMK, Berlin 2006
Enacted unanimously by the 80th General Assembly of the German Federal Youth Council on the
26th/27th October 2007 in Hanover.
Position
12