The Administrative Presidency and Fractious Federalism: The Case of Obamacare Frank J. Thompson* and Michael K. Gusmanoy *School of Public Affairs and Administration, Rutgers-Newark Rutgers Center for State Health Policy in New Brunswick; [email protected] y The Hastings Center Growing executive branch discretion in the U.S. separation-of-powers system has elevated the importance of the administrative presidency. However, research on this topic has paid scant attention to federal policies that rely on the states to implement them. We seek to advance knowledge of the administrative presidency under conditions of fractious federalism by examining the nature and efficacy of the Obama administration’s efforts to secure state cooperation in implementing the Affordable Care Act (ACA). This law sought to assure that nearly all Americans would have health insurance. Despite strong partisan, ideological pressures on Republican policy makers in the states to refrain from implementing the ACA, the Obama administration has had some initial success in overcoming their resistance. Waivers have been a particularly valuable presidential tool. During a Republican presidential primary debate in September 2011, Mitt Romney declared that one of his first acts as president would be to ‘‘put out an executive order granting a waiver from Obamacare to all 50 states’’ (Turner 2011, 1). The Republican Party platform reiterated this pledge when Romney won the nomination in 2012. Romney’s pledge vividly illustrates an important political development. The significant shift in discretion to the executive branch in the separation-of-powers system has marched in lockstep with the surging importance of the administrative presidency (Epstein and O’Halloran 1999; Posner and Vermeule 2010). The commitment and capacity of the White House and top political executives to shape who gets what from federal programs without changes in law or congressional approval have become ever more manifest. Students of American governance have for over three decades noted the importance of the administrative presidency. Early studies zeroed in on such factors as the president’s influence over high-level appointments,1 the budget, reorganizations, and federal rules (e.g., Nathan 1983; Waterman 1989; Durant 1992). More recent analyses Publius:The Journal of Federalism volume 44 number 3, pp. 426^450 doi:10.1093/publius/pju011 Advance Access publication March 17, 2014 ß The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of CSF Associates: Publius, Inc. All rights reserved. For permissions, please email: [email protected] Administrative Presidency and Fractious Federalism 427 stress that direct presidential action—a kind of ‘‘power without persuasion’’— constitutes ‘‘the distinguishing mark of the modern presidency’’ (Howell 2003, 175). These works affirm that presidents increasingly take unilateral action through executive orders, proclamations, directives, signing statements, and the like (e.g., Cooper 2002). Illuminating as the ‘‘administrative presidency’’ or ‘‘unilateral-action’’ research has been, however, it has paid scant attention to programs that rely on the states to implement federal policies (Durant 2009). For their part, specialists in federalism and intergovernmental relations have historically devoted little attention to the administrative presidency. Following the great outpouring of federal grant programs in the sixties, these specialists tended to portray implementation as dominated by a ‘‘professional bureaucratic complex’’ comprised of ‘‘similarly trained professionals’’ at the national and state levels (Beer 1978, 17–18). Within the parameters set by their shared professional vision, these administrators would bargain and negotiate with each other when differences surfaced over program implementation. To the extent that elected policy makers intervened, members of key legislative committees rather than presidents or governors loomed large. The picket-fence metaphor reinforced this version of an administrative federalism dominated by professionals. The gradual emergence of ‘‘intergovernmental management’’ as a focus within public administration also slighted the significance of the president, portraying such management as having a low political quotient and being about incremental, rather than major, change (Thompson 2013). More recently, however, the role of presidents in shaping the fabric of administrative federalism has garnered more attention. Rabe (2007), for instance, has depicted environmental policy under President George W. Bush as a ‘‘collision between the administrative presidency and state experimentation.’’ Other studies have highlighted the ability of presidents in partnership with key governors to transform intergovernmental programs via the administrative process. They have underscored the dramatic importance of program waivers as a tool of the administrative presidency (e.g., Gais and Fossett 2005; Shelly 2013; Thompson 2012; Weissert and Weissert 2008). These and a handful of other studies have cast light on the administrative presidency and federalism, but exploration is preliminary. We need to know more about the circumstances that prompt concerted efforts by the White House to shape intergovernmental programs via the administrative process, what presidents hope to accomplish, the strategies they employ, and whether they succeed. This study seeks to advance knowledge of the administrative presidency under conditions of fractious federalism by examining the strategic response of the Obama administration to the challenges of implementing the Affordable Care Act of 2010 (ACA). This law (also called ‘‘Obamacare’’) constituted a major policy breakthrough to assure that nearly all Americans would have health insurance. The 428 F. J. Thompson and M. K. Gusmano next section describes key provisions of the ACA and the concept of fractious federalism. The article then probes the Obama administration’s strategies for encouraging states to implement two key elements of the ACA—a major expansion of the existing Medicaid program and the establishment of insurance exchanges. Concluding sections assess the implications of the cases for efforts to advance broader understanding of the administrative presidency and federalism. This article rests on an inductive case study methodology that seeks to generate initial insights for theory building rather than test an empirical model. In addition to drawing on the scholarly literature, we systematically reviewed reports and analyses from think tanks and other entities engaged in tracking the ACA’s implementation.2 Archival evidence also came under the microscope—executive branch documents, statutes, court decisions, regulations, congressional hearings, waiver proposals, pertinent Web pages, and more. In addition, newspapers and specialized health care media were scanned.3 Finally, we conducted seventeen semistructured interviews with key stakeholders and experts.4 Context: The ACA and Fractious Federalism Approved by Congress in March 2010, the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act5 ran over 1,000 pages and covered a sea of topics. Above all, the law promised health insurance to over thirty million Americans who lacked coverage. About half of this number were to benefit through the expansion of the Medicaid program. Established in 1965, Medicaid had become by far the largest grant program to the states providing health insurance to over sixty-five million low-income people. The ACA initially mandated that, with certain exceptions, all nonelderly, non-disabled people with incomes up to 138 percent of the poverty line would qualify for Medicaid.6 It called for the federal government to pick up the entire tab for the newly eligible for three years starting in 2014. In 2017, this federal match will gradually decline, leveling off at 90 percent in 2020. States that refused to comply with this mandate risked having funding for their existing Medicaid program reduced. Subsequently, however, the Supreme Court essentially converted the Medicaid expansion from a mandate to a state option (discussed later). State-based health insurance exchanges comprised the second major pillar of the ACA’s coverage expansion. The law provided that those with incomes from 138 to 400 percent of poverty could purchase federally subsidized insurance through these exchanges. These provisions of the ACA rested on a strategy of ‘‘partial preemption.’’ The federal government would provide states with grants to plan and establish their own exchanges. But if a state declined to do so, the federal bureaucracy would step in to operate one. An insurance carrier participating in the exchange would have to offer ‘‘essential health benefits’’ and pass muster on other Administrative Presidency and Fractious Federalism 429 criteria to become a ‘‘qualified health plan.’’ The ACA imposed a tax penalty on people who failed to obtain coverage through the exchanges or otherwise. In forging the ACA, Congress delegated vast discretion to the executive branch. More than forty ACA provisions require or permit the bureaucracy to interpret the statute by issuing formal rules under the Administrative Procedure Act. Still other provisions call upon federal administrators to establish programs and procedures but make no mention of doing so via formal rulemaking (Copeland and Carey 2011). In these and countless other ways, federal and state administrators possessed vast discretion to shape the ACA. By late 2013, the Obama administration had published more than seventy final rules and issued scores of interpretive guidelines (Rosenbaum 2013). Intense partisan polarization surrounding the ACA meant that the administrative presidency, rather than the career bureaucracy, would be front and center during implementation. In key respects, the ACA was the poster child for the well documented trend toward partisan polarization in the United States over the last several decades (e.g., Abramowitz 2010). The ACA passed Congress without a single Republican vote. After the law’s passage, it continued to be the target of intense ideological attacks by congressional Republicans, who repeatedly attempted to derail the ACA’s implementation. With nearly every significant implementation decision a political hot potato, the White House and top presidential appointees naturally assumed center stage in the two cases we examine. Polarization in Congress helped create a context of fractious federalism. This form of federalism resembles what Conlan and Posner (2011, 444) define as an ‘‘ideological model’’ of intergovernmental implementation where the partisan identities of actors drive their behavior and ‘‘overshadow’’ more pragmatic considerations.7 Consistent with this perspective, the defining elements of fractious federalism are (i) intense attitudinal opposition to the ACA among many state policy makers rooted in their partisan, ideological identities; (ii) the active efforts of these state partisans to weaken the law through court action and intergovernmental lobbying; and (iii) reluctance by these partisans to implement the ACA. ‘‘Fractious,’’ as employed here, entails concerted efforts by key party elites and supporters to promote a vertical partisan coalition.8 This means that state policy makers face pressure to act as committed, loyal party members in the implementation process. They are encouraged and expected to shun more pragmatic political, policy, and administrative considerations about the advantages and disadvantages of implementing a federal program in their particular states. The success of the Obama administration in achieving the coverage goals of the ACA depended heavily on its ability to encourage Republican policy makers in the states to defect from this vertical partisan coalition. This promised to be a formidable challenge. In 2013 Republicans controlled the governorship and both houses of the legislature in twenty-four states. In six of the twelve states with divided governments, Republicans occupied the governor’s mansion. 430 F. J. Thompson and M. K. Gusmano Medicaid: The Participation Challenge One manifestation of fractious federalism emerged soon after passage of the ACA. Twenty-six state attorneys general (all, but one, Republican) joined a suit filed in a federal district court in Florida to have the law declared unconstitutional. Among other things, the suit claimed that the Medicaid expansion amounted to unconstitutional federal coercion of the states. In June 2012, a 5 to 4 majority of the Supreme Court agreed that the mandated Medicaid expansion was coercive. The court prohibited the federal government from defunding a state’s existing Medicaid program if it failed to implement the expansion, thereby making state participation voluntary (National Federation of Independent Business v. Sebelius (NFIB) 2012). Administrative Strategies Faced with the need to coax state participation, the Obama administration pursued four primary strategies. First, it preserved an all-or-nothing approach to the expansion. The Supreme Court ruling kindled efforts by Republican governors to interpret the decision as a rejection of many of the ACA’s Medicaid provisions. Of particular importance, some of these governors expressed interest in partial expansions. Did the court ruling mean that states could enjoy the 100 percent federal match to cover some portion of the newly eligible Medicaid population rather than the entire group? Many Republican policy makers as well as the director of the National Association of State Medicaid Directors thought so. About two weeks after the court decision, the Republican Governors Association submitted thirty questions to the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) including one related to a partial expansion (McDonnell 2012). Republican governors and their congressional allies pressed CMS for clarification throughout the late summer and fall. Finally, in December 2012, CMS announced that it would not approve partial measures. In essence, the Obama administration gambled that the ACA’s generous federal match as well as lobbying pressures from providers and others would over time encourage most, if not all, states to expand Medicaid to all those below 138 percent of the poverty line. Second, the Obama administration reassured states that it would preserve the ACA’s financial commitment to them. This required the administration to backtrack. In mid-2011, President Obama’s quest to achieve a ‘‘grand bargain’’ with Republicans over the budget deficit prompted him to propose a ‘‘blended’’ match rate for Medicaid. Rather than have a different match for the newly eligible under the ACA and those in the existing Medicaid program, the Obama administration would devise a common rate. The blended rate would yield some Medicaid budget savings for the federal government (Lotven 2012). Efforts to strike a grand bargain with Republicans collapsed. But by mid-2012, it remained unclear whether in Administrative Presidency and Fractious Federalism 431 subsequent budget proposals the Obama administration would seek to shift costs to the states via the blended rate. This uncertainty stirred unease among state policy makers about the financial risks of expanding Medicaid. During a meeting with President Obama in early December 2012, the chair of the National Governors Association, Jack Markel (D-Delaware), stressed that any uncertainty about Washington’s financial commitment to the states would undercut the Medicaid expansion (Dixit and Lotven 2012a). By the end of December, the Obama administration assured the governors that it would no longer pursue the blended rate or other significant reductions in Medicaid spending. The president’s budget proposal for fiscal 2014 honored this commitment. Third, the Obama administration sought to incentivize interest groups to pressure state policymakers to expand Medicaid. Hospitals comprised a particularly attractive target. Major hospital lobbies had supported the ACA largely on grounds that it would reduce the amount of uncompensated care they delivered to the uninsured. In recognition that hospitals would face less fiscal stress from this source, the ACA cut funding for Medicaid’s disproportionate share hospital payments (DSH). Authorized by Congress in 1981, DSH gave states the opportunity to draw down federal dollars to subsidize hospitals serving a greater proportion of low-income patients who were uninsured or enrolled in Medicaid. But the DSH benefits were not limited to safety net hospitals. Given distributive political dynamics in the states, many hospitals serving more affluent patients also found ways to garner DSH subsides. Based on the premise that hospitals would now provide less care to the uninsured, the ACA cut federal DSH allocations by 20 percent in the period from 2014 to 2020. At the time of the ACA’s passage state hospital associations had expressed misgivings about its DSH provisions. Their leaders realized that many Americans would remain uninsured and that Medicaid payment rates tended to trail Medicare’s and those of private insurers. With the court ruling making the Medicaid expansion voluntary, these misgivings morphed into alarm. Hospital lobbyists wanted DSH cuts pared or eliminated in nonparticipating states. However, this proposal had little appeal to the Obama administration since it would reward recalcitrant states with more federal funds. Moreover, it would reduce the incentive for hospital lobbyists to press state policy makers to support the Medicaid expansion. Thus, when Secretary of Health and Human Services Kathleen Sebelius met with leaders of the American Hospital Association and other major hospital groups in July 2012 she offered no relief from the DSH cuts. Instead, she urged them to solve the problem by lobbying vigorously in their states for the expansion (Dixit 2012). The Obama administration budget proposal for fiscal 2014 preserved the DSH reductions as did a formal rule issued in September 2013 (U.S. CMS 2013). 432 F. J. Thompson and M. K. Gusmano State hospital associations generally responded as the Obama administration had hoped. Their support for the Medicaid expansion often rested on well-publicized studies documenting its economic benefits. For instance, a study released by the Missouri Hospital Association warned that failure to participate in the Medicaid expansion would be tantamount to taxing the business community since it would shift the costs of charity care to employer insurance. The report predicted that the expansion would spur the creation of 24,000 new jobs and stimulate billions of dollars in economic activity in the state. Noting that the expansion also had health benefits, the executive director of the association (a former top official in the second Bush administration) called it ‘‘a win-win for Missouri’’ (Dixit and Lotven 2012b). Though less significant, the Obama administration pursued a similar incentivizing strategy with other business groups.9 Fourth, the Obama administration employed waivers to persuade states to launch Medicaid expansions. Waivers derive from a congressional delegation of authority to the executive branch to permit states to deviate from the ordinary requirements of a law. The ACA provided CMS with comprehensive waiver authority starting in 2017. In the meantime, the Obama administration used existing waiver authority under Section 1115 of the Social Security Act to serve its aims. Initially, CMS granted waivers to supportive states to jump start implementation of the law prior to 2014. In late 2010, for instance, CMS approved a Medicaid waiver for California called ‘‘Bridge to Reform.’’ Among other things, the waiver promised federal matching funds to counties in the state that got a head start implementing the ACA’s Medicaid provisions. After the 2012 Supreme Court decision, waivers became an attractive tool for enticing state participation. In this vein, an episode in Florida underscores the value of waivers as a vehicle for intergovernmental logrolling. It involved approving a waiver not directly related to the ACA to encourage a governor to pursue the Medicaid expansion. Shortly after taking office in 2011, the administration of Florida Governor Rick Scott (R) proposed a controversial waiver. Among other things, it would extend a market-oriented demonstration launched earlier in five counties to the entire state and enroll elderly Medicaid beneficiaries and those under sixty-five with disabilities in managed care. The proposal sparked strong resistance from advocacy groups and many providers in Florida. More than 100 organizations, including the Florida Medical Association, urged CMS to reject the waiver. In mid-2012, Governor Scott announced that Florida would not expand Medicaid. Meanwhile, waiver negotiations between the Scott administration and CMS dragged on with Florida officials making some modifications to their proposal. Finally, these negotiations entered a broader political phase. Governor Scott met with Secretary Sebelius to stress the importance of the waiver. He conveyed that federal approval of the waiver might well lead him to reverse Administrative Presidency and Fractious Federalism 433 his position on the Medicaid expansion. The exact nature of Scott’s negotiations with the Obama administration is unclear. But the evidence suggests it was no coincidence that Scott’s endorsement of the Medicaid expansion and CMS’ approval of the Florida waiver both occurred in February 2013 (Alvarez 2013; Webber 2013). The Florida House of Representatives refused to back Scott on a Medicaid expansion in 2013. Still, the defection of a governor indentified with the Tea Party signaled that the White House might eventually vitiate the vertical partisan coalition opposed to the ACA. An episode in Oklahoma points to another strategic use of the waiver process— refusal to renew an ongoing waiver to encourage state participation in the ACA. The Oklahoma Medicaid program had historically provided premium assistance to low-income adults up to 200 percent of the poverty line via a waiver called ‘‘Insure Oklahoma.’’ The state assisted enrollees in obtaining private insurance through their employers or through purchase in the individual market. The state had capped enrollment in the program at 35,000; about 8,600 of the waiver’s beneficiaries had incomes below the poverty line. Oklahoma Governor, Mary Fallin (R) announced in November 2012 that the state would not expand Medicaid. However, she supported the renewal of Insure Oklahoma, which was due to expire at the end of 2013. But CMS rejected this request noting that the passage of the ACA negated the need for the initiative. Most of the Insure Oklahoma enrollees could obtain coverage in the federally run exchange and the remaining beneficiaries would remain insured if the state chose to expand Medicaid (Dixit 2013a).10 Waivers: The Special Case of Premium Assistance Among its uses of waivers, the Obama administration’s flexibility in considering premium-assistance initiatives loomed especially large. These waivers allowed certain Republican policy makers in the states to distance themselves from Obamacare while still supporting the Medicaid expansion. The Medicaid statute had long given states the option to cover program enrollees through private insurance. But requirements that premium assistance initiatives offer benefit packages comparable to Medicaid, be no more expensive than the regular program, and be voluntary rather than mandatory for enrollees, discouraged states from adopting this approach (Alker 2013). To pursue the ACA’s Medicaid expansion via premium assistance, state policy makers wanted a degree of flexibility that only waivers could provide. In early 2013, premium assistance began to attract support among some Republican policy makers in the states. After an encouraging conversation with White House senior advisor, Valerie Jarrett, Ohio Governor John Kasich (R) expressed interest in the approach.11 A month later the Florida senate rejected Governor Scott’s proposal to enlarge Medicaid, but then proposed an alternative 434 F. J. Thompson and M. K. Gusmano bill that would permit the expansion through private insurance. In the same period, federal officials signaled to Arkansas Governor Mike Beebe (D) that they were open to premium assistance. In April 2013, Beebe persuaded both houses of the Arkansas legislature (which were controlled by Republicans) to expand Medicaid in this way. With the exception of those with special medical needs, the legislation authorized the state to enroll the ACA’s Medicaid cohort in the federal exchange. Arkansas officials submitted a waiver request to CMS in August 2013 (Dixit 2013b). Another, more limited, version of premium assistance emerged in Iowa. Governor Terry Branstad (R) and the leadership of the Republican-dominated house of representatives resisted the Medicaid expansion while the Iowa senate, which Democrats controlled, favored it. Lobbyists for hospitals helped broker a compromise between leaders of the two parties whereby the state would cover those with incomes from 101 to 138 of the poverty line via premium assistance. The newly eligible below this level would enroll in a modified version of the state’s regular Medicaid program (Daly 2013). The Iowa legislature approved this approach and state officials submitted the waiver request in August 2013. Meanwhile, Governor Tom Corbett (R) of Pennsylvania approached the Obama administration about a possible premium assistance waiver to expand Medicaid. Republican supporters of premium assistance saw it as a market-oriented, ‘‘conservative’’ alternative to the traditional ‘‘broken’’ Medicaid program that Obamacare sought to expand. As a Republican state senator from Arkansas put it, the approach appealed to him ‘‘because it would use the markets to provide better health care and to increase competition in the insurance industry, which could drive down costs’’ (Pear 2013a). So too a Republican state senator from Florida underscored that the approach would ‘‘empower people to have their own private health insurance’’ (Alvarez 2013). This framing of premium assistance as ‘‘conservative’’ was a political plus for the Obama administration. Branded this way, the approach might serve as a way to defuse the Medicaid expansion as a polarizing political issue. In the words of one state official, it was a way ‘‘to produce a good shift in the conversation.’’12 Federal officials also sensed the irony of framing premium assistance as conservative. In drafting the ACA, Congress had assigned a large role to Medicaid primarily because the Congressional Budget Office estimated that it cost 50 percent more per person to insure the targeted group in the exchanges than in Medicaid (Ku 2013). Private plans on the exchanges would tend to pay providers more than Medicaid thereby affording enrollees greater access to ‘‘mainstream’’ health care. Use of the exchanges might also reduce churning—people moving between Medicaid and the exchange plans due to fluctuating incomes. It might therefore bolster participation rates among the Medicaid expansion group and foster continuity of care. Hence, the allegedly ‘‘conservative’’ alternative to Medicaid was in essence a more deluxe, expensive model for serving the poor that could appeal to liberals.13 Responding Administrative Presidency and Fractious Federalism 435 favorably to the Republican premium assistance proposal in Florida, a Democratic state senator observed: ‘‘A rose, by any other name, is still a rose’’ (Alvarez 2013). While appealing to the Obama administration in several respects, however, a premium-assistance approach to Medicaid also presented challenges. A primary one was the price tag. Demonstration waivers were supposed to be budget neutral costing no more than the regular Medicaid program to serve enrollees. While CMS could finesse this problem by accepting optimistic budget-neutrality estimates in state waiver proposals, the cost problem could become severe if many states opted for premium assistance. Sensing the potential and pitfalls of the approach, CMS proceeded cautiously. In late March 2013, the agency announced that it would consider approving a limited number of premium assistance demonstrations. If approved, these waivers would remain in effect until 2017 when new comprehensive waiver authority under the ACA would commence. CMS stipulated that it would only consider waiver proposals that offered Medicaid enrollees a choice between at least two insurance plans on the exchanges. The agency also insisted that states limit cost sharing by these beneficiaries and ‘‘wrap around’’ certain guaranteed Medicaid services if they were not part of the essential health benefits offered in the exchanges. While the guidelines reaffirmed that waiver requests had to be budget neutral, they left the door open for sanguine financial estimates that premium assistance would cost no more than a regular Medicaid expansion. In this vein, states could project savings from reduced churning between Medicaid and the exchange plans as well as from increased competition among insurance carriers eager to sign up the new Medicaid enrollees.14 The extent to which premium assistance waivers in the states will emerge as vehicles for the Medicaid expansion remained an open question as 2014 commenced. By this time, CMS had approved both the Arkansas and Iowa proposals. Clearly, the Obama administration had strong political incentives to use these waivers to encourage defections from the Republican partisan coalition. Early Returns on State Participation In response to the strategies of the Obama administration and other factors, how many states have decided to participate in the Medicaid expansion? To what degree have the partisan underpinnings of fractious federalism been muted? Table 1 presents an overview of state participation in the Medicaid expansion as of January 2014. At this point half the states (as well as the District of Columbia) were moving forward with it; two others, Indiana and Pennsylvania, were actively considering the possibility of such action. The remaining twenty-three states had ruled out participation at least for the time being. As befits fractious federalism rooted in partisan polarization, only 17 percent of states where Republicans controlled the F. J. Thompson and M. K. Gusmano 436 Table 1. States moving forward on the Medicaid expansion by partisan control of state government (January 2014) Partisan control in 2013 Total Number moving forward % Moving forward States debating and deliberating Unified Republicana Unified Democrat Divided Other—Nebraska 24 13 12 1 4 13 8 0 17% 100% 67% 0% 2 0 0 0 Total 50 25 50% 2 Source: Kaiser Family Foundation. a Virginia, a non-expansion state, switched from unified Republican to divided in 2014. governorship and the legislature (Arizona, Michigan, North Dakota, and Ohio) chose to participate while all states controlled by the Democrats signed up. Twothirds of the states with divided governments pursued expansion. The Administration’s Approach to the Exchanges Unlike Medicaid, the Obama administration knew from the start that state implementation of the ACA’s exchanges would be voluntary. Under partial preemption, a state could decide to operate these marketplaces under federal guidelines. But if it did not do so, CMS would establish and run a ‘‘federally facilitated exchange.’’ Whichever level of government was the operator, the ACA called for the creation of two types of exchanges—one for individuals and another for small businesses. A state could set up the exchanges as governmental or nonprofit entities. Participating insurance companies would have to offer ‘‘essential health benefits’’ and meet other requirements in order to become a ‘‘qualified health plan.’’ The exchanges were to be ready to enroll people by October 2013; coverage offered through them would commence on January 1, 2014. (In 2013, the Obama administration rebranded the exchanges as ‘‘Health Insurance Marketplaces.’’) Why Encourage State Involvement? The Obama administration faced a core strategic question: Should it actively discourage or encourage state operation of the exchanges? Certainly, a case existed for the former. During the health care reform debate, Democrats in the House of Representatives favored the creation of nationally run exchanges. They ultimately Administrative Presidency and Fractious Federalism 437 agreed to partial preemption because it was the only way to muster the votes needed to pass the ACA. Proponents of a centralizing strategy believed that federal direction and oversight would be enhanced if the national bureaucracy rather than the states implemented the law. A federal exchange, they argued, would facilitate more vigorous efforts to achieve certain policy goals, such as containing costs by promoting competition among insurance companies participating in the exchanges (McDonough 2011). Views such as these could have encouraged the Obama administration to pursue an aggressive take-it-or-leave it approach with the states—establishing exacting standards for state performance and making few concessions to them. Or the White House might refine this strategy based on whether it trusted a state’s policy makers to implement the law. This would mean greater effort to encourage liberal Democratic states to participate (e.g., California, New York) and less effort to involve conservative Republican ones (e.g., Georgia, Texas). Ultimately, however, the Obama administration rejected the nationalizing strategy and avidly promoted state participation. Secretary Sebelius persistently affirmed that the administration would prefer that states ‘‘take the lead’’ in setting up the exchanges (Quinton 2012). During meetings with state insurance commissioners in 2010 and 2011, federal officials underscored that they wanted to maximize state involvement and did not want to take responsibility for such traditional state functions as the regulation and certification of plans offered by insurance companies.15 Several factors fueled federal commitment to state participation. First, the high levels of professionalism in most states made their administrators attractive, capable implementation partners for the federal government. Second, the ACA’s exchange provisions called for a dramatic increase in federal intervention in a domain states had historically dominated—insurance regulation. State participation would allow CMS to enter the field gradually, relying on state expertise while it got up to speed (Gluck 2011, 572). States also had more experience than CMS in encouraging community outreach to facilitate enrollment. Federal officials saw this outreach as crucial. The ultimate success of the exchanges depended heavily on enrolling large numbers of young and healthy people to assure a more viable risk pool and contain upward pressures on insurance premiums. Third, the Obama administration understood the limits to funding for federal involvement in the exchanges and the unwillingness of congressional Republicans to proffer additional monies. The law provided only $1 billion for federal implementation even though the Congressional Budget Office conservatively estimated that from $5 to $10 billion was a more realistic figure. A state that participated would have much more funding to get the exchanges up and running than the federal government would. Congress rejected repeated requests from 438 F. J. Thompson and M. K. Gusmano the White House for more funds, including one in April 2013 for an additional $1.5 billion in fiscal 2014 (Carey 2013; Kliff 2013). Finally, state participation had symbolic importance. All else being equal, state implementation of federal programs tends to make them ‘‘more politically palatable to those who generally resist federal aggrandizement or prefer ‘smaller’ government or local variation’’ (Gluck 2011, 572). Under conditions of fractious federalism rooted in partisan polarization, this issue looms even larger. If states controlled by Republican governors and legislatures agreed to operate state-based exchanges, federal officials would begin to defuse the partisan polarization around health reform. Incentives for State Participation? As it dealt with the challenges of partial preemption, the Obama administration understood that states had some incentive to participate. Involvement would allow state policy makers to shape the exchanges. Speaking at a meeting of the National Governors Association in 2011, Mike Levitt, former governor of Utah (R) and Secretary of Health and Human Services during the G. W. Bush administration, stressed that ‘‘the federal government needs guidance here because the states know best how to do it.’’ If states participate, ‘‘it will compel [the federal bureaucracy] to write rules that provide for flexibility.’’ But ‘‘if there are 20 states who choose to pursue this, and 30 who do not in any realistic way move forward,’’ the federal government will be ‘‘licensed’’ to have ‘‘a nonflexible exchange’’ (American Association of Health Administration Management 2011, 5). States choosing to run the exchanges could count on federal subsidies. The ACA requires the Secretary of Health and Human Services to award various grants to help states set up the exchanges. States could draw on these grants until January 1, 2015, when the exchanges were expected to be self-financed. Federal monies did not eradicate the concerns of some legislators about the possible costs of operating the exchanges (Dash, Monahan, and Lucia 2013). Conservative think tanks released estimates that the price tag to the states would be high. For instance, the Cato Institute projected that the exchanges would cost each participating state between $10 million and $100 million annually (Cannon 2012). While the Obama administration realized that federal subsidies and state desires to shape the exchanges might motivate them to participate, it also understood the barriers to state involvement rooted in partisan polarization. In February 2011, twenty-one Republican governors sent a letter to Secretary Sebelius affirming that they did not want their states to participate unless they had ‘‘complete flexibility in operating the exchanges.’’16 As CMS moved to provide states with flexibility, Republicans in Congress implored state officials to uphold the vertical partisan coalition. In July 2012, for instance, seventy-three Republican lawmakers Administrative Presidency and Fractious Federalism 439 from both houses of Congress sent a letter to Republican governors urging them to join their efforts to derail Obamacare by not creating state-based exchanges (Stein 2012). Strategies to Entice Participation Faced with this incentive structure, the Obama administration tried to encourage state participation in the exchanges by accommodating their preferences (Haeder and Weimer 2013). This flexible approach manifested itself in myriad ways— extending several deadlines for state decisions on the exchanges, avoiding strict limits on the amount of federal funds states could receive, and more (Lotven 2011). Perhaps no better example of federal flexibility can be found than the reaction of CMS to comments on a proposed rule governing the exchanges. Issued in 2011, an array of stakeholders responded by urging the federal government to impose more exacting requirements on state-operated exchanges. In the vast majority of cases, the Obama administration declined to accept these recommendations and preserved state discretion (U.S. Department of Health and Human Services 2012). While federal flexibility in dealing with the states emerged in countless ways, three pivotal strategies deserve note. First, federal administrators respected states that had been ahead of the curve in establishing exchanges. Rather than direct them to abandon or significantly reshape their institutions, federal officials accepted their approaches as legitimate. For instance, they reassured Massachusetts officials that they could continue to operate an exchange called the ‘‘connector’’ which the state had created in 2006. More recently, in May 2013, CMS adopted a ‘‘bifurcated’’ approach to the exchange process by allowing Utah to continue operating its small business exchange, called ‘‘Avenue H.’’ In turn, the federal government agreed to run the Utah exchange for individuals. Second, the Obama administration rejected an all-or-nothing approach to state participation. Of critical importance federal officials established through the formal rule-making process a ‘‘partnership’’ model whereby states could run some exchange functions while ceding others to CMS (U.S. Department of Health and Human Services 2011, 2012). This idea grew from conversations between the Obama administration and members of the National Association of Insurance Commissioners (an intergovernmental lobby for these state officials). Certain commissioners from nonparticipating states wanted to play a role in certifying and regulating insurance companies in the exchanges. Federal officials concurred and entered into formal partnership agreements with several states. The partnerships typically call on the federal government to create the computer-based infrastructure (or portal) that would allow applicants to compare insurance options and enroll with the appropriate federal subsidy. States in turn certify and monitor the insurance companies in the exchanges. States might also facilitate enrollment in the 440 F. J. Thompson and M. K. Gusmano exchanges, such as by recruiting and overseeing ‘‘navigators’’ to inform and otherwise assist businesses and individuals. The efforts of the Obama administration to encourage some form of state involvement did not end with the partnerships. When officials from several Republican states expressed their discomfort at openly signing formal partnerships, the Obama administration provided them with political cover—participation through ‘‘marketplace plan management.’’ This gave these states a role in regulating insurance companies in the exchanges while shielding them from partisan rebukes that they were abetting Obamacare. Third, the Obama administration gave states significant latitude to define the ‘‘essential health benefits’’ insurance companies participating in the exchanges had to offer. The ACA mandated ten general categories of benefits (e.g., ambulatory care, hospitalization, prescription drugs). It also affirmed that the essential health benefits offered through the exchanges be equivalent to those provided by a typical employer health plan. Within these general parameters, the ACA delegated substantial discretion to the Secretary of Health and Human Services to define these benefits. The secretary could, for instance, decide whether certain high-cost drugs should be covered. Key Democrats in Congress wanted the federal government to be assertive in defining essential benefits so that coverage would be comprehensive. A panel of experts at the Institute of Medicine also urged federal officials to exert leverage but for a different purpose—to keep benefits from being so expansive as to drive up premium costs (Levey 2012). But the Obama administration believed that an aggressive posture on essential benefits had major drawbacks. For one thing, federal officials frequently lacked evidence that consistently demonstrated the precise value to health of specific interventions. Instead, decisions on what health benefits were ‘‘essential’’ often involved complex moral judgments in a context of empirical uncertainty. Under these conditions, federal decisions on this issue seemed sure to be contentious. Advocates for people with specific diseases would press hard for certain benefits. Others would complain that the federal government was dictating too much about health practices and rationing care—a symbolically loaded term that conservatives had used in opposing the ACA. Rather than confront such tortuous politics, the Obama administration punted to state policy makers. Regulations issued in 2011 gave states multiple options for choosing a ‘‘benchmark’’ plan defining health benefits. Officials could accept the definition of benefits embedded in state requirements for small-group or commercial HMO plans. Or they could adopt the benefits of insurance plans for state or federal government employees. If a state failed to adopt a benchmark plan, it would default to the benefits covered by the largest small-group plan. (More than half the states subsequently defaulted.) Administrative Presidency and Fractious Federalism 441 Strategy to Replace State Support The dominant motif of the Obama administration’s exchange strategy involved going the last mile to encourage state participation. But federal officials gradually recognized that many states would do little or nothing to assist them. This awareness prompted an effort by the Obama administration to seek assistance from another level of the federal system—local governments (especially in nonparticipating states). Many local officials vowed to cooperate including some Republicans. For instance, Mayor Robert Cluck (R) of Arlington, Texas, observed: ‘‘Whatever we can do as community leaders to help people understand the exchanges, it’s our responsibility to do’’ (Pear 2013b). So too, the public health department in San Antonio pledged to train its staff to foster exchange enrollment. Efforts to engage local governments did not go unnoticed by Republican officials opposed to the ACA. In Missouri, for instance, Republican legislators approved a measure forbidding local governments from cooperating with the federal exchange (Pear 2013d). State resistance and congressional failure to adequately fund the federal exchanges also sparked fiscal creativity by the Obama administration. For instance, Secretary Sebelius shifted money from a prevention fund created by the ACA to support grants to bolster exchange enrollments. She also sought financial support from the private sector for a nonprofit organization called Enroll America. Headed by a former White House aide, this organization sought to maximize participation by those eligible for ACA benefits. Secretary Sebelius persuaded the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation, which had long funded enrollment initiatives in the health care arena, to provide a significant grant. She also urged private corporations with a financial stake in the success of the exchanges, such as H&R Block, to donate money to Enroll America. The Republican partisan coalition fought these efforts. Congressional Republicans denounced Secretary Sebelius’ fund-raising as akin to the Iran-Contra scandal of the eighties.17 They asked the Government Accountability Office as well as the Inspector General of the Department of Health and Human Services to investigate the legality of Sebelius’ actions (Dixit 2013c; Pear 2013c). Republicans on the House Energy and Commerce Committee also impeded federal enrollment initiatives. The committee contacted groups that had won federal grants to serve as enrollment navigators demanding that they provide detailed reports about their activities and plans. The letter specifically probed whether the organizations had any contacts with Enroll America (Goldberg 2013). Meanwhile, Republican officials in several states sought to curtail the activities of navigators by requiring them to have state training and certification similar to that of insurance brokers (Galewitz 2013). Initial Returns on State Participation The efforts of the Obama administration to encourage full state participation in the exchanges had met limited success as of early 2014. As table 2 indicates, about a third of F. J. Thompson and M. K. Gusmano 442 Table 2. States participation in the health insurance exchanges by partisan control of state government (January 2014)a Partisan control in 2013 Total Creating state-based health insurance marketplaces % Creating state-based health insurance marketplaces Creating partnerships or plan management options % Creating exchanges, partnerships, or plan management Unified Republicanb Unified Democrat Divided Other—Nebraska 24 13 12 1 3c 10 5 0 13% 77% 42% 0% 5 3 5 1 33% 100% 83% 100% Total 50 18 34% 14 64% Source: Dash et al. (2013) updated. The District of Columbia has also created its own health insurance marketplace. b Virginia, participating via a plan management option, switched from unified Republican to divided in 2014. c Mississippi and Utah will operate small business exchanges while CMS runs the exchanges for their individual markets. a the states seized this option. This picture of modest participation changes, however, when we consider states willing to form ‘‘partnerships’’ or to assist via the plan management option. When one adds these contributing states to those that agreed to operate at least one exchange, nearly 65 percent of the states emerge as participants. Like Medicaid, fractious federalism rooted in polarization has left its mark. Among the twenty-four states under Republican control, only Idaho chose to operate both exchanges; Mississippi and Utah opted to run the business exchanges. It deserves note, however, that 20 percent of Republican-dominated states have opted for a partnership or to assist with plan management. In contrast, all thirteen Democratically controlled states have become involved in operating the exchanges with ten establishing their own. Three states, Delaware, Illinois, and West Virginia, opted for the partnership model. Illinois policy makers anticipate moving to full exchange operation in 2015. Over 80 percent of the divided governments chose to be involved in running the exchanges, with one-third (Kentucky, Nevada, New Mexico, and Rhode Island) assuming full responsibility. The Administrative Presidency And Fractious Federalism: Some Lessons This article has sought to advance knowledge of the administrative presidency under conditions of a fractious federalism. With the ACA a defining partisan issue Administrative Presidency and Fractious Federalism 443 freighted with symbolic baggage, the White House and top political appointees, rather than the professional bureaucratic complex, took the lead it dealing with the states. In reviewing developments, three lessons stand out. First, reliance on states as implementing agents under conditions of fractious federalism complicates attainment of an effective administrative presidency but does not doom it to failure. The problems that federalism poses for the administrative presidency should be kept in perspective. The president typically faces an array of challenges in imposing his strategic vision on administrative agents even in the absence of federalism. While Howell (2003, 22) stresses the ability of presidents to take unilateral action through executive orders, a kind of ‘‘power without persuasion’’, he underscores that ‘‘when it comes to [their] implementation . . . the power modern presidents wield very much depends on their ability to persuade.’’ Federal agencies and private contractors typically have ample means to drag their feet and otherwise resist presidential initiatives. Still, states possess certain distinctive qualities that enhance their leverage vis-àvis federal policy makers and pose special challenges for the administrative presidency (Dinan 2014). States have constitutional standing to press their claims in court and effectively used this resource to transform the playing field for the Medicaid expansion. States also derived considerable influence from the voluntary nature of their participation in ACA implementation and the fact that federal officials could not easily replace them with other administrative agents. So too, the intergovernmental lobby, especially governors, puts states in an advantageous bargaining position in dealing with the White House (Thompson 2012, 214). These and related factors make it very difficult for the administrative presidency to achieve its goals in the face of substantial state opposition. Difficulties multiply when the forces of vertical party integration are strong and the opposition party controls substantial numbers of state governments. (Had Democrats controlled most state governments, ACA’s status as a partisan litmus test would have cut the other way and expedited implementation.) Despite these obstacles, the Medicaid and exchange cases hardly point to a failed administrative presidency. The Obama administration artfully drew on several strategies to entice states to participate. It shaped state political dynamics by incentivizing hospital lobbies to press governors and legislators in resistant jurisdictions to enlarge Medicaid. It adroitly employed Medicaid waivers, especially those involving premium assistance, to coax the participation of Republican policy makers. In part due to these and related strategies, half the states had moved to expand Medicaid as of 2014—a pace similar to that in evidence after passage of the original Medicaid law in 1965.18 While certain states with large numbers of uninsured people opted out, close to 45 percent of those who could benefit from the Medicaid expansion were on track to obtain coverage in 2014 (estimate derived from Rudowitz and Stephens 2013, 6). So, too, the Obama administration’s 444 F. J. Thompson and M. K. Gusmano willingness to accept half-a-loaf participation in the exchanges contributed to some form of implementation involvement by over 60 percent of the states. On balance, the Obama administration’s strategies heightened prospects that ACA implementation might eventually shift from a partisan ideological model (Conlan and Posner 2011) to one where state policy makers more pragmatically calculated the benefits and costs of the ACA for their particular jurisdictions. Second, our study points to limits of partial preemption as a vehicle to enhance federal leverage under conditions of fractious federalism, divided national government, and limited funding. All else being equal, policies based on partial preemption tend to enhance federal assertiveness in dealing with the states compared to grant programs that depend completely on state cooperation. This appears to be the case in certain regulatory arenas, such as occupational safety and health, which rely on this approach (Conlan and Posner 2011). In the case of the ACA, however, the fervor of the Obama administration’s efforts to entice state participation in Medicaid and the exchanges did not differ appreciably. Certain intervening variables help account for this pattern. For one thing, the ACA provided much more funding to the states to establish exchanges than it did to the federal bureaucracy. For another, the Republican takeover of the House of Representatives in 2011 meant that the Obama administration had no chance of obtaining supplemental funding from Congress to remedy this capacity problem. Finally, state participation would help legitimate the ACA as something other than a ‘‘federal takeover’’ of health care and might help defuse the partisan polarization engulfing the law. Third, waivers are a particularly valuable tool of the administrative presidency in dealing with the states under conditions of fractious federalism. An implementation perspective on the administrative presidency necessitates a focus on the interaction of multiple leadership tools (Durant 2009). But in the context of federalism, the value of waivers stands out. Waivers often grant extraordinary latitude to a presidential administration to promote its ends. They are subject to far fewer procedural requirements and to less judicial review than formal rulemaking. Starting with the Clinton years, Medicaid waivers greatly escalated the role of the administrative presidency (Thompson 2012). This article highlights their continued importance under conditions of fractious federalism. Of particular note, the Obama administration drew on waivers to accommodate Republican policy makers who wanted to reframe the Medicaid expansion as a ‘‘conservative,’’ market-oriented, premium assistance initiative. The premium assistance waivers also served one of the Obama administration’s goals with respect to the exchanges—the avoidance of adverse selection whereby sicker people would disproportionately enroll and drive up premium costs. The waiver proposals from Arkansas and Iowa helped counter this threat by funneling only the healthiest members of the Medicaid expansion group into the exchanges. The medically ‘‘frail’’ remain in the traditional Medicaid Administrative Presidency and Fractious Federalism 445 program. The ACA grants additional comprehensive waiver authority to the executive branch in 2017.19 This will afford presidents new opportunities to pursue their goals through the administrative process. Limitations and Future Research This study has limitations. A cornucopia of written documents afforded us substantial insight into the Obama administration’s strategies for enticing state participation. But our analysis would have benefitted from more extensive interviews in the White House and at the top levels of the federal bureaucracy. At a minimum, such interviews would have permitted a more nuanced assessment of the role of the White House relative to that of political executives in the Department of Health and Human Services in shaping the administrative presidency. At the time of our research, we could not secure these interviews. More fundamentally, the examination of a single case obviously provides a limited foundation for broader generalizations about the administrative presidency and federalism. Future progress in advancing theory therefore depends on systematically comparing the ACA to other intergovernmental programs. Given its stature as a major policy breakthrough, the evolution of the ACA should remain a research priority. Will it eventually evolve from a contentious, ideological model of implementation to a more instrumental one featuring pragmatic bargaining and negotiation between federal and state officials? The magnitude and nature of state variation in implementing the ACA should also receive attention along with the variables that explain different patterns. Beyond these issues, the early troubled experience with Healthcare.gov, the federal web portal to expedite enrollment on the exchanges, begs for attention. This article shows how in a context of fractious federalism the White House and top political executives in the bureaucracy clearly recognized the need to be engaged fully in shaping strategies to encourage state participation. Somehow, however, the complex task of integrating the systems developed by myriad IT contractors into an effective website for enrolling people was assigned to a mid-level career civil servant with ‘‘little clout and no formal background in software engineering’’ (Lipton, Austen, and LaFraniere, 2013, A17). The White House assumed major hands-on responsibility for the function only after the website’s highly publicized startup failure. This debacle undermined public confidence in the president and the ACA while further fueling Republican denunciations of the law. What caused the White House and top political executives to overlook the website as a potential implementation landmine? More generally, this episode highlights the need for researchers to focus on the dynamics that shape which issues get on the strategic agenda of the administrative presidency in the first place. 446 F. J. Thompson and M. K. Gusmano Notes The authors thank Carol Weissert, J. Mitchell Pickerill, and three anonymous reviewers for helpful comments on a prior draft. 1. For more recent analysis of this presidential tool, see Lewis (2008). 2. In this regard, the periodic releases of Health Reform GPS at George Washington University, the Kaiser Commission on Medicaid and the Uninsured, and the Urban Institute, were particularly helpful. 3. We conducted a search of all U.S. newspapers from 2010 to 2013 using Lexis/Nexis with particular attention to the New York Times. In terms of health care publications, see especially http://insidehealthreform.com. 4. The description and conclusions of this study overwhelmingly derive from the written documents described in this paragraph. We used interviews to fill in a few gaps left by these documents and to check the veracity of certain of our conclusions. Hence, each interview sought unique information. They were conducted by phone and ranged in length from an hour to twenty minutes. We promised anonymity to the respondents. 5. The term ‘‘Affordable Care Act’’ encompasses this law and a sidecar measure passed four days later—the Health Care Education and Reconciliation Act of 2010. 6. The ACA formally sets the eligibility target at 133 percent of poverty, but a standard earnings disregard effectively makes the eligibility threshold 138 percent. If a state does not participate in the Medicaid expansion, those with incomes between 100 and 138 percent poverty may still enroll in subsidized insurance plans on the exchanges. 7. Fractious federalism can also be viewed as a type of ‘‘fragmented federalism’’ that more specifically applies to intergovernmental implementation (Bowling and Pickerill, 2013). 8. Studies of federalism in other contexts have noted the potential role of vertical partisan coalitions (Rodden 2006; Krause and Bowman 2005). 9. The Chamber of Commerce and the National Federation of Businesses complained to the Obama administration that businesses in nonparticipating states would pay penalties if employees with incomes from 100 to 138 percent of poverty enrolled in the exchanges. The Obama administration urged these organizations to solve the problem by lobbying state policy makers to expand Medicaid (Lotven and Wilkerson 2013). 10. CMS approved Oklahoma’s request for renewal of the demonstration waiver without Insure Oklahoma. 11. Kasich later bypassed a recalcitrant legislature and facilitated a more conventional Medicaid expansion. 12. Interview, Oklahoma official, June 24, 2013. 13. Nor was premium assistance an exercise in ‘‘privatization’’ compared to the regular Medicaid program since states had increasingly contracted with private managed care organizations to serve Medicaid enrollees. 14. See http://healthreformgps.org/resources/cms-releases-faqs-on-premium-assistance-formedicaid-expansion/. 15. Interview, official 2 at National Association of Insurance Commissioners, September 18, 2013. Administrative Presidency and Fractious Federalism 447 16. Letter dated February 7, 2011. http://healthreformgps.org/resources/governors-writesebelius-requesting-more-control. 17. The scandal took root when in defiance of Congress the Reagan administration covertly shifted money obtained from selling arms to Iran to support rebels fighting a leftist government in Nicaragua. 18. Twenty-six states signed up to implement the original Medicaid program in 1966, its first year of operation. It was not until 1970 that nearly all states were participating. 19. A state must show that its waiver would (i) not reduce access to health insurance, (ii) offer services as comprehensive as those offered through the exchanges, and (iii) not increase the federal budget deficit. Federal officials will possess wide latitude in judging whether state proposals meet these criteria. 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