If Many Seek, Ye Shall Find: Search Externalities and New Goods⇤ Maciej H. Kotowski† Richard J. Zeckhauser‡ August 22, 2016 Abstract Consumer search serves productive roles in an economy with multiple goods. In equilibrium, search promotes the sorting of consumers among producers, thereby enabling the market for new goods, and potentially increasing welfare and profits above the benchmark case (an economy with a single good, hence no search). When competitors are few, additional direct competitors may benefit a firm, as more sellers may encourage more consumers to search. In return, consumer search entices producers of new goods to enter. Neither of these externalities, nor the coordination problems faced by consumers and producers, is appropriately recognized in the literature. Keywords: Consumer Search, Product Differentiation, Price Dispersion, Imperfect Information, Search Externalities, Insurance JEL: D43, D83 We are grateful to the editor and the referees for suggestions that greatly improved this study. We are grateful to Daniel Hojman for stimulating discussions on this and related topics. Audiences at the 2014 CEA meeting (Vancouver), the 2014 European Summer Meeting of the Econometric Society (Toulouse), and the 2015 AEA Meeting (Boston) offered appreciated constructive feedback. Part of the research was completed when Maciej H. Kotowski was visiting the Stanford University Economics Department. He thanks Al Roth and the department for their generous hospitality. † John F. Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University, 79 JFK Street, Cambridge MA 02138. E-mail: <[email protected]>. ‡ John F. Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University, 79 JFK Street, Cambridge MA 02138. E-mail: <[email protected]>. ⇤ 1 “Too few competitors.” That is hardly a complaint of firms in the economics literature. However, contrary to both the literature and standard intuition, a firm may suffer if there are too few other firms producing its product. This surprising conclusion applies in the not unusual case where two or more different goods compete, and consumers need to find the producers of a product they desire. For a viable market to emerge and to be sustained requires an appropriate interaction of consumers and producers. Sellers enter the market confident that when their numbers are sufficient, well-matched buyers will search to find them. Buyers will search only if the goods they want are available and sufficiently easy to find. The following analogue of a common situation illustrates our argument. Juan owns and operates a taxi in a large city. Since taxis are alike in terms of quality and price, consumers rationally hire the first available cab. Taking this random matching as given, for argument’s sake assume that each driver makes about thirty trips per day. Suppose Juan invests in a more comfortable car that will be appreciated by a third of the city’s taxi users. These customers are willing to pay a premium for the added comfort of a luxury vehicle and Juan charges them accordingly. For simplicity, say Juan needs to make only eighteen trips per day at this higher price to recoup his investment.1 At first glance, Juan’s entrepreneurial investment seems like a wise business move. He intuited a large untapped market, and he went after it. Despite the large latent demand for Juan’s unique service, we argue that he is unlikely to be successful. Why? Although in aggregate many consumers want added comfort, Juan is unlikely to encounter enough of them in a typical day. Indeed, unless comfort-conscious consumers alter their behavior and purposefully wait or search for his car, Juan will complete only ten trips per day and will fall short of his goal.2 When there are very few luxury taxis in the city, even comfort-conscious consumers rationally take the first available cab. If the chance of encountering a fancy taxi is very small, why incur the cost of waiting? Perhaps paradoxically, Juan needs more direct competitors to stand a chance of being successful with his new vehicle. If there were more luxury cabs, some consumers would wait since they could expect that a deluxe taxi would be around shortly. If enough consumers think it worthwhile to wait, Juan would be able to succeed. However, the market’s outcome 1 Although less common in North America, in many cities there is sizable variation in both the quality of vehicles in the taxi fleet and in the fares they charge. For example, in Singapore (mid-2013) the flag rate for a basic Toyota taxi is around S$3.00. This charge increases to around S$4.50 for a Mercedes taxicab. 2 Only one third of the thirty consumers whom Juan encounters randomly are willing to pay the higher posted price. 2 is still far from obvious, as competition is a double-edged sword. While more luxury vehicles may tempt consumers to seek out such taxis—effectively creating the market for this service where none existed before—the increased competition from other drivers cuts into profits. Equilibrium demands that these effects balance gracefully. One might initially think that Juan’s problem is related to the excessive costs of effective advertising,3 or with the difficulty consumers may have in contacting him specifically for a ride. But, consider the extreme situation where Juan drives for Uber or a similar, internetenabled, ride-sharing platform. Would a typical consumer even consider the on-demand luxury car service a realistic option if there was but one driver serving the entire city? Likely not. Rather, Juan’s success requires the influx of other drivers offering a similar service and who can also be found with similar ease. That is, he needs more competition. The benefits of more competitors apply even when each supplier is providing a slightly different good. Thus, a file-sharing service that seeks to compete with Dropbox may benefit if a few other similar services enter the market. This makes it more likely both that consumers will be aware of alternatives generally, and they will believe it worthwhile to seek a service more appropriate to their needs in terms of capabilities and price. Online streaming music and dating/match-making applications exhibit the same characteristics. In these cases, advertising is insufficient to adequately inform consumers about each product’s characteristics. Consumers must search and experiment to find the product that works best for them. This article studies large, almost competitive markets where consumers incur a cost to find the producers of desired products. It addresses the conditions under which competition, coupled with consumer search behavior, can create a market for new goods. When it does, both consumer welfare and firms’ profits can rise. We argue that successful markets require that both sides take costly actions. Firms must invest to enter a market while consumers must undertake a proactive and costly search to seek out desired goods. The improved sorting of consumers due to their search behavior yields an efficiency gain that producers and consumers share. We have already sketched the essence of our argument in the market for transportation and online applications. Similar conclusions apply, for example, to restaurants, professional services, and a range of products capitalizing on 21st century technologies. An example at the end of our essay applies our framework to insurance markets subject to adverse selection. We assume that consumers must search to learn producers’ offers. As noted by Diamond (1971), the existence of even a small search cost can seriously impede a market’s operation. 3 When a seller does advertise, consumers receiving and responding to the advertisement can go directly to him. Others’ search is not directed and random as we assume. 3 In an outcome later dubbed the “Diamond paradox,” the market’s only equilibrium involves all firms charging the monopoly price. Applied to our motivating discussion, in this outcome all taxis charge the same high price for standard service. If consumers believe that all taxis are the same, it is easy to appreciate the situation’s self-fulfilling logic. This undesirable outcome is neither theoretically inevitable, nor often observed in the real world. It can be avoided if there is consumer-level heterogeneity and the potential for multiple goods. We take the simplest case where producers can supply one of two goods. For example, a taxi may be either a standard or a luxury vehicle, as in our motivating vignette. Initially, each consumer knows the product offered by a local, nearby supplier and he knows the distribution of available products in the economy as a whole. If he finds the nearby offer acceptable, he takes it. If it is unacceptable, he searches for a better deal. We investigate two related questions. First, we consider the welfare and profit consequences of search and competition. When consumers search for a desired product, they expand the demand faced by that product’s producers. Increased demand enhances the incentives of firms to provide the product and, as the market expands, this virtuous circle reinforces the effectiveness of consumers’ search efforts. By this process, search behavior generates a market-creation externality operating through the self-sorting of consumers across producers of different goods. This externality, we believe, has been neglected in previous examinations of markets where consumers search for desired goods. (We discuss the related literature below.) To highlight one consequence, even though consumer search is costly, and their search tamps down producers’ market power, the resulting equilibrium can Pareto-dominate the benchmark case. Compared to Diamond’s single-good, monopoly-price equilibrium, multiple goods flourish in the market; consumers enjoy greater expected surplus; and firms earn higher profits. How might such an equilibrium come about? That is our second focus and it sounds two recurrent themes—product differentiation and price dispersion. We construct equilibria where multiple goods trade at multiple prices and we show how the combined incentives offered by product differentiation and price dispersion support the appealing welfare consequences noted above. Two considerations render this conclusion non-trivial. First, consumers must have the incentive to search. Hence, some firms must promise consumers a good deal. Second, and cutting against the first point, firms face a free-rider problem when consumers are already searching. No firm wishes to be the one that promises the best deal as it can often get away with leaving just a little less surplus to searching consumers than other firms. However, if all firms succumb to this temptation the constellation of incentives 4 supporting the market unravels—consumers’ reason to search evaporates. In this regard, our story goes beyond a simple coordination game. One side (firms) faces a steady incentive for miscoordination among its members. Reconciling these opposing forces is the focus of our technical analysis. Consumer advocates often encourage people to “shop around” for a better deal. Many fail to follow that advice.4 In some markets search offers little immediate gain. Hence, as in the case of taxi services in Juan’s city when there are few luxury cabs, even luxuryseeking consumers may rationally eschew search. On the other hand, in some markets extensive search appears to be consumers’ modus operandi. The market for air transport or packaged vacations is one example, at least for many travelers.5 Our study emphasizes the transition from one search regime to another. In our framework, it is a lost cause for one or a few consumers alone to search for a better deal. Rather, welfare gains come only when many consumers search simultaneously. Although a search-intensive equilibrium may appear wasteful at first glance—many consumers are pursuing economic rents all the while incurring direct search costs—we argue that by changing producers’ incentives Pareto-improving gains can be realized. Producers’ incentives change on two margins. First, they face pressure on the intensive margin as better-informed consumers curtail their market power. Second, producers gain, now profitable, new opportunities on the extensive margin. When consumers search, they self-sort among producers thereby creating an opening for new products and services. When the second effect predominates, efficiency is enhanced, and welfare and profits can both rise. Three related claims constitute the primary economic contributions of our paper. First, the benefits of costly search activity are intimately tied with the aggregate prevalence of search behavior. Searching alone is often ineffective as a desired product or good is likely not on offer. If many search, desired products will spring up. Resolving this coordination problem and moving an economy from a low-search to a high-search equilibrium often yields benefits for consumers and producers alike. To sustain such coordinated action, firms must ensure that consumers’ costly activities are worthwhile. Thus, and second, firms often benefit from direct competitors. When this is the case, each consumer is sure that his investment 4 For examples see Pratt et al. (1979). Even for goods that are standardized, relatively expensive, repeat purchases, and for which search is in principle easy, prices can vary dramatically. For example, Medigap insurance—a product to cover co-payments and deductibles in Medicare—is standardized by the government. In 2003 in Colorado, the monthly premiums for a 75-year-old for Plan C coverage ranged from $58 to $271 per month. See Cutler and Zeckhauser (2004). 5 Actively searching in these markets may be worthwhile as price dispersion is common (Borenstein and Rose, 1994; Gerardi and Shapiro, 2009). See also Sengupta and Wiggins (2014). 5 is not in vain. Third, intensive search behavior among consumers facilities the introduction of new goods to the possible benefit of all. Despite the costs and inconvenience of search, consumers gain from the new product’s presence. Suppliers of the novel good gain from their new commercial success. And, most surprisingly, suppliers of old products can gain as well. They can now take advantage of the enhanced sorting of consumers among products offered in the economy. Our fourth contribution flows from a narrower technical perspective. We identify necessary and sufficient conditions for the existence of multiple equilibria in our model and, in particular, the existence of an equilibrium featuring price dispersion among all goods in the economy and search by all types of consumers. As we explain below, it is precisely in such cases that beneficial outcomes described above are most likely to occur. After providing context for our study in Section 1, we introduce our model in Section 2. Sections 3 and 4 present the equilibrium analysis. We sketch extensions to our model in Section 5. To highlight but one variation, we extend our model to allow for adverse selection, which we then use to study insurance markets. We show how search activity can sustain welfare- and profit-enhancing insurance products through better consumer sorting. An appendix collects proofs and other technical remarks. 1 Related Literature Since Stigler (1961) and Rothschild (1973), a large literature has examined consumer search and market equilibrium. The findings can be quite surprising. As Diamond (1971) showed, even a small search cost can squash any possible benefits from competition and lead to an allcharge-the-monopoly-price outcome. We take the monopoly-price outcome as the benchmark case, and investigate how price dispersion and product differentiation can together support Pareto-superior outcomes when consumers search. The equilibria we construct depend on the combined presence of search externalities and complementarities between consumers and firms. Our study relates to prior contributions on these three dimensions, as explained below. Price Dispersion Price dispersion is a commonly observed phenomenon and many theories have been developed to explain its presence.6 Reinganum (1979) focuses on firm-level heterogeneity. Stahl (1989, 1996) considers differences among consumers in their search costs. Burdett and Judd (1983) propose a non-sequential/noisy search process. More gener6 We only cite a representative sample from this large literature. Stiglitz (1989) and Baye et al. (2006) provide surveys. See also McCall and McCall (2008, Chapter 10). 6 ally, Burdett and Judd (1983) observe that the key driver behind price dispersion in nearly all models (and likely in practice as well) are differences in consumer’s ex post information concerning the prices charged by firms. This will be true in our setting as well. In our model, as in Diamond (1987), differences in consumers’ willingness to pay for a product help to drive dispersed prices. Some consumers will be more keen to search for cheap or new products than others. Albrecht and Axell (1984) exploit the same type of heterogeneity to support wage dispersion in their model of search unemployment. In contrast to these models, our setting allows firms to further specialize in producing different products. This cross-cutting dimension is critical for many of the beneficial welfare conclusions that we identify. Though anecdotal evidence for price dispersion abounds, systematic documentation across a variety of goods is less common. Recently, Kaplan and Menzio (2014) have documented the patterns of price dispersion across a wide range of consumer products. Their data allow for a decomposition of variance in prices and they find that search frictions account for 35 to 55 percent of the price differences observed across identical goods. They attribute the bulk of the remainder to inter-temporal price discrimination. Our analysis focuses on search frictions. Product Differentiation Wolinsky (1986) examines how product differentiation motivates consumers to search. His framework represents a commonly encountered approach integrating search and product differentiation.7 In his model, a consumer must search to learn both the price and his own idiosyncratic valuation for each firm’s particular product. In our setting, by contrast, each consumer has a persistent type and firms producing objectively similar products are viewed similarly. Hence we depart from the standard model of product differentiation in a monopolistically-competitive market. Though we allow for multiple goods, our environment also differs from a “multi-product” search setting in which a consumer buys multiple products, perhaps from different suppliers (Burdett and Malueg, 1981; McAfee, 1995; Gatti, 2001; Rhodes, 2014; Zhou, 2012). In our model, a consumer demands but one item; we relax this assumption in Section 5. Search Externalities and Complementarities As noted above, our key economic conclusions stem from the presence of search externalities and complementarities. Several earlier studies hint at similar implications to those that we identify. In line with our analysis, Pratt et al. (1979) empirically document considerable price dispersion across a range of standard7 Wolinsky (1986) builds on Perloff and Salop (1985). See also Wolinsky (1984). Anderson and Renault (1999, 2000), Armstrong et al. (2009), and Larson (2013) are more recent studies in this vein. 7 ized products.8 They also suggest a precursor to the market-creation/expansion implications of search behavior that we examine. Their example of expensive and inexpensive motels along a road (p. 209) could find a welcome home in this paper. Nevertheless, the environment analyzed here differs from their setting and accommodates conclusions outside of their model. To highlight but one difference, we show how an equilibrium with search can increase firms’ expected profits even above those with a monopoly price for a single good. This outcome cannot occur in Pratt et al. (1979). Formally, many of our conclusions rest on a strong feed-back effect between search activity and production profitability. Diamond (1982, p. 882) has argued for the presence of such an effect based on his analysis of a barter economy. His model assumes that goods are exchanged on a one-for-one basis and therefore does not include price dispersion. In an important paper, Burdett and Judd (1983) rely on the same complementarity between consumers’ search activity and firms’ pricing strategies to support multiple equilibria in a search model. They also show that multiple price-dispersion equilibria can coexist with different levels of consumer search intensity. In one equilibrium, a small fraction of consumers learns the prices posted by more than one firm; in another, a large fraction of consumers sample more than one firm.9 In their model, firms’ profits decline relative to the monopoly-price case whenever more consumers search to learn the posted price of more than one firm. This effect is to be expected and is present in some cases of our model as well. However, as we explain in Section 4.2, firms’ profits can also rise if they are also able to specialize in producing different goods. With product differentiation, search activity also facilitates the sorting of consumers among producers. Thus, firms can compensate for their reduced market-power with better-targeted pricing.10 Cachon et al. (2008) identify a “market-expansion effect” tied to search activity. They model an oligopolistic market where firms can expand product lines. Unlike our model, Cachon et al.’s (2008) firms offer a continuum of firm-differentiated products. Each consumer has an idiosyncratic taste for each good and must search to learn the price and appeal of each good. The fine-grained idiosyncrasies in consumer tastes coupled with their cost specification 8 This observation continues to be salient despite the advent of new technologies that have, arguably, lowered search costs (Baye and Morgan, 2001; Baye et al., 2006). 9 Burdett and Judd (1983) study a model with non-sequential search and a model with noisy search. We are referring to their model with non-sequential search where the fraction of consumers learning one price is endogenously determined in equilibrium. 10 Acemoglu and Shimer (2000) identify a similar phenomenon when studying labor markets. They argue that better search-related sorting promotes “technology dispersion.” Their dispersion and the differentiation that we study are roughly analogous. 8 produces a unique equilibrium without price dispersion. In contrast, our model generates high-, moderate- and no-search equilibria, often with dispersed prices. Market-expansion effects are also noted in the literature on agglomeration economies. Its central idea is that concentrations of sellers attract increased numbers of consumers by reducing consumers’ search costs (Dudey, 1990). New York’s Diamond District or the London Silver Vaults are prime examples. The micro-level strategic interaction and competitive incentives in our model are unrelated to those stemming from agglomeration effects. Our consumers are not drawn to a particular locale. While our model considers a non-monetary economy, some features of our environment have been considered in recent search-theoretic models involving money, following Kiyotaki and Wright (1989). Both Camera et al. (2003) and Fong and Szentes (2005), for example, allow agents to endogenously specialize their production across an array of differentiated products. Respectively, they show how money can increase specialization in production or increase the production of costly, but higher-quality goods. A key component in our framework is the strategic complementarity among producers of a similar product, which requires a costly investment to produce. As noted by Lester et al. (2012), a similar strategic complementarity exists for costly information acquisition when assets trade as currency: as more agents recognize an asset as a safe medium of exchange, it becomes more worthwhile for others to do the same. Finally, our main conclusions concerning welfare in equilibria with intensive search and high price dispersion play off the counterbalancing of both intensive- and extensive-margin effects. In a monetary model, such effects have been studied by Rocheteau and Wright (2005) though they rely on a considerably different market mechanism than we do. Externalities of various sorts have always been a theme in the search literature. Effects such as the thick-market externality, the congestion externality, and the sorting externally have been identified and studied (Shimer and Smith, 2001; Burdett and Coles, 1997, 1999). We relate our analysis to these findings in the conclusion, after our model’s details and implications have been spelled out. 2 The Model Our model features a large number of firms and consumers. Each firm chooses a good to produce and its price. Consumers differ in their willingness to pay for goods. Each consumer searches sequentially among the firms to satisfy his consumption needs. First, we describe 9 the two sides of the market. Subsequently, we introduce the market mechanism and search process. We comment on our model’s interpretation before concluding this section. Firms Firms move first in our economy. Each firm j 2 Z commits to a single contract— a good-price pair, j = hxj , pj i—that each passing consumer may either accept or reject. xj 2 {0, 1} is the good produced by firm j and pj is its per-unit price. For simplicity, assume that good 0 can be produced at zero marginal cost and with no fixed cost. Good 1 can be produced with a constant marginal cost c 0; moreover, if a firm produces good 1 it must additionally incur a fixed cost of > 0. This fixed cost, for example, may represent an investment in a product-specific technology. Thus, a taxi driver may invest in a fancier car or a restaurant may opt for a more stunning decor.11 A firm’s profit depends on the number of consumers who accept its contract offer. This number will be determined in equilibrium, but for now we observe that if n consumers accept xj · (nc + ).12 j = hxj , pj i then firm j’s profit is ⇡(n| j ) = npj Consumers Each consumer i 2 Z is willing to pay z > 0 for good 0. Consumers differ in their willingness to pay for good 1. This variation is described by the random variable Vi , which we call the consumer’s type. A helpful interpretation is to consider good 0 to be an established, standardized product and good 1 to be a novel product with more heterogenous demand. For simplicity, suppose Vi takes on one of two values, v or v̄, where 0 c < v < v̄. Consumers’ types are independently and identically distributed and := Pr[Vi = v̄]. This distribution is common knowledge. Goods 0 and 1 are substitutes. A consumer wishes to buy at most one unit of either good, but not both. He needs but one cab ride, or one dinner. (Two cab rides would take him away from his destination. Two dinners would give him indigestion.) Thus, if a type-vi consumer accepts j = hxj , pj i—he buys one unit of good xj at price pj from firm j—his immediate consumption payoff is u( j |vi ) = xj vi + (1 xj )z pj . A consumer’s purchase is voluntary. He is free to exit the market for an immediate payoff of zero. The Market Mechanism Although a consumer knows the aggregate distribution of contracts in the economy, he does not know the specific contract offers of all firms. We assume 11 Fishman and Levy (2012) also allow firms to make a costly investment in product quality, thus generating product differentiation. In their model the outcome of this investment is stochastic. 12 Implicitly, we also allow a firm to forego production entirely. We do not model this decision directly as it is a weakly dominated action. We thank an anonymous referee for suggesting this notational simplification. 10 that a consumer initially knows only the offer of one local firm; he must search to learn the offers of others. Our market unfolds as follows: 1. Each firm j simultaneously commits to a single feasible contract, feasible contracts is ⌃ = {hx, pi : x 2 {0, 1}, p 2 R+ }. j 2 ⌃. The set of 2. Without cost, each consumer i learns the contract offer of firm j = i. Thus, at the start of the market consumer i has access to contract i . 3. For t = 0, 1, . . . , consumer i may (a) decide to accept contract better option, or (c) exit the market. i+t , (b) search for a (a) If the consumer accepts i+t he receives an immediate payoff of u( i+t |vi ) and he exits the market. The firm offering the chosen contract supplies the good and receives its quoted price as payment. (b) If the consumer decides to search, he incurs a search cost of s > 0 and he learns the contract offer of firm i + t + 1. Step 3 subsequently repeats with i+t+1 being the available contract offer. (c) If the consumer exits the market, he receives a payoff of zero and does not return. Remark 1. If consumer i accepts j after sampling t (non-local) firms, his total payoff is u( j |vi ) ts. If he exits the market without making a purchase, this total payoff is ts. Remark 2. Our model assumes that consumers cannot return to a previously sampled firm. That is, search is “without recall.” This assumption accords well with our motivating taxicab example. Once a taxi drives by, it is usually gone for good. Anticipating our equilibrium analysis, we emphasize that our argument also holds when search allows for recall (DeGroot, 1970).13 For example, when consumers search for a new cellphone plan, they can reconsider previously encountered options without much hassle. In such applications, search costs often stem from the challenge of evaluating a product’s qualities or fine-print specifics rather than physically “finding” the good.14 13 If search allows for recall, at each date t consumer i will be able to pick his favorite option from the contracts he has encountered on his search { i , i+1 , . . . , i+t } or to continue searching. Except for the extension in Section 5.3 to increasing search costs, the analysis is unchanged if search with recall is allowed. A unified exposition motivated our modeling choice. 14 Ellison and Wolitzky (2012) discuss how firms may manipulate consumers’ costs of learning product attributes and prices. 11 Remark 3. Each consumer knows the offer of a “local” firm. This is equivalent to giving the consumer one free sample before possibly embarking on a more extensive search. This is a common assumption (Salop and Stiglitz, 1982; Stahl, 1989; Acemoglu and Shimer, 2000, among others). Unlike studies following Varian (1980), we do not posit the existence of a group of consumers who are perfectly informed about all firms’ offers. Strategies and Equilibrium In many models generating price dispersion, firms adopt mixed strategies. A similar conclusion applies here and we denote a mixed strategy for firm j as j 2 (⌃).15 When firm j posts a contract, the number of consumers who eventually accept it is a random variable, Nj . The distribution of Nj will depend on j , on other firms’ strategies, j , and on consumers’ search strategies. Suppressing these latter elements in our notation, firm j’s expected profit is ⇧j ( j ) := E [⇡(Nj | j )| j , j ]. A consumer’s strategy is a search-and-purchase plan. In each period, he must decide whether to accept an available offer or to search further so as to maximize his expected utility net of search costs. His beliefs regarding the distribution of contracts in the economy are a critical input informing this plan. We represent these beliefs by ˜i 2 (⌃). When a consumer searches, we assume that he views each encounter with a new firm as an independent draw from ˜i . With the above ideas in place, we can define an equilibrium in our market. We restrict our analysis to symmetric equilibria and we will often drop the “symmetric” qualifier. The definition conforms to the usual requirements. Firms’ strategies constitute a Nash equilibrium; each consumer’s search behavior maximizes his expected welfare given his beliefs; and each consumer’s beliefs are correct. Definition 1. A (symmetric) equilibrium is a tuple of production strategies, beliefs, and search strategies such that: 1. Each firm adopts a common strategy j = ⇤ , which maximizes its expected profit given the strategies of all other firms and consumers’ search strategies and beliefs. 2. Each consumer believes that the distribution of contracts in the economy is ˜i = ⇤ . 3. The search strategy of each consumer maximizes his expected utility given ˜i . 4. All consumers (of a particular type) adopt the same search strategy. 15 Equivalently, we can reframe our model so that firms follow pure strategies and equilibrium will be described by the fraction of firms offering specific contracts. For example, Pratt et al. (1979) take this route. 12 Context and Interpretations Our model’s simplicity accommodates several interpretations and links easily with a range of models of market competition. First, we assume that consumers acquire market information sequentially. Thus, we depart from a thoroughly “classic” model where perfect information reigns supreme. If consumers enjoyed perfect information (and could immediately contract with their preferred provider), then our model reduces to a case of Bertrand competition—each consumer will rush to the firm promising the greatest surplus. Second, our model features an orderly search process. Given our assumptions about consumer beliefs, our model behaves as if a consumer samples from a large set of ex ante identical firms, as is standard in the search literature. Our search process considerably simplifies the analysis of consumer sorting. It lets us easily track the expected inflow of local and non-local consumers to each firm. Third, we are silent regarding the model’s time dimension. While the “t” superscript suggests the passing of physical time and we often speak of “periods of search,” we stake no claim on the model’s temporal calibration. We view “t” as an index describing the extent of search undertaken by a consumer. Hence, our economy can unfold asynchronously with different consumers searching at different paces or different times. The key restriction is that firms cannot screen consumers based on how much previous search they have undertaken or on their arrival “time.” All firms post a single price, which is a common practice. Finally, we assume an equal number of consumers and firms. Our analysis is qualitatively unchanged if each firm is initially matched with m consumers each of whom may accept its offer or engage in search. The m = 1 case simplifies exposition. 3 Consumer Search Behavior How should a typical consumer search? If he believes that all firms are offering contracts according to ˜ 2 (⌃), his optimal search strategy involves a cutoff rule (Lemma A.1). For each type of consumer vi , there exists a critical value u⇤ (vi ) such that if u( j |vi ) max{u⇤ (vi ), 0} then he stops searching and accepts j . If u⇤ (vi ) > max{u( j |vi ), 0} the consumer takes a pass on j and samples his next available option. Otherwise, he exits the market. Following DeGroot (1970), the cutoff value characterizing the search strategy ⇥ ⇤ is the unique solution to the equation u⇤ (vi ) = E ˜ max{u⇤ (vi ), u( |vi ), 0} s where is distributed according to ˜. This strategy has two noteworthy characteristics. First, it is stationary and independent 13 of the extent of prior search activity. This characteristic is a direct consequence of the constant search costs and does not carry over to a more general setting (see Section 5.3). Second, a consumer’s beliefs ˜ are constant and do not adjust in response to the observed sample of contracts. Though in equilibrium a consumer’s beliefs are correct, he does not draw any inferences from “off-equilibrium path” occurrences. Being surprised by an unexpectedly good deal will not prime the consumer to anticipate even better offers elsewhere. Both characteristics considerably simplify the analysis and are standard features of nearly all search models. Since consumer behavior is straightforward, we will typically identify equilibria by referring only to firms’ strategies. When we do so, our description implicitly assumes that consumers hold correct beliefs, and that their search behavior is described by the above cutoff strategy. 4 Market Equilibrium We begin our analysis by introducing a maintained parameter restriction. Assumption A-1. v c < (1 )z and (v̄ c) < z. When Assumption A-1 holds, producing good 1 in an economy without consumer search is comparatively unprofitable. The assumption tilts our setting against the conclusions that we are working toward and focuses our attention to (in our opinion) interesting cases. The case with neither search, nor product differentiation, nor price dispersion will serve as our benchmark. This equilibrium, which always exists, reproduces the well-known Diamond (1971) paradox. A single product is sold at its monopoly price. As all consumers know this to be true, search never pays. As Burdett and Judd (1983) show, this result is common across search models whenever consumers learn the price posted by a single firm. Theorem 1. There exists a unique equilibrium with no product differentiation. In this equilibrium all firms offer good 0 at the monopoly price z. From a consumer’s perspective, Theorem 1 describes this economy’s “bad equilibrium.” Since consumers expect all firms to offer the same contract, they have no incentive to search. Acting like a local monopolist, each firm extracts the surplus from its captive market and earns a profit of z. If search costs are sufficiently high or there are too few consumers who value good 1 highly, this will be the economy’s only equilibrium. 14 As noted above, the equilibrium described in Theorem 1 is neither inevitable nor particularly common. Goods usually differ both physically and in price. Similar products vary by quality and the same product can vary in price from store to store. Both forms of variation suggest alternative equilibrium arrangements that may dominate the benchmark case. More precisely, we say that an equilibrium features product differentiation if there is a positive probability that two firms produce different goods. Similarly, price dispersion exists if there is a positive probability that two firms set different prices for the same good. Our analysis below considers progressively more complex equilibria that differ on these two characteristics. A coordination failure lurks behind Theorem 1. Given Assumption A-1, the sustainable production of good 1 requires that some consumers make their purchase from a non-local supplier. This is only possible after a costly search. We say that an equilibrium exhibits search if there is a positive probability that at least one consumer searches for at least one period. For search to be worthwhile, a consumer needs to be reasonably certain (i) that it will yield a worthwhile prize, and (ii) that it will not be exceptionally costly. The first criterion means that some consumers must anticipate receiving a positive surplus from some contract(s) in the economy. The second criterion means that an adequate number of firms must offer sufficiently attractive contracts. Once multiple goods are traded simultaneously, a large set of equilibrium contracts may emerge. This, however, does not happen and there is only a small set of relevant cases. Theorem 2. Consider an equilibrium with product differentiation. There are at most two distinct contracts offered by firms producing good 0 and there are at most two distinct contracts offered by firms producing good 1. The intuition behind Theorem 2 is straightforward and has been noted before by Albrecht and Axell (1984) and Diamond (1987), among others. Each posted equilibrium price must correspond to the reservation price of some consumer. Suppose good 1 trades in equilibrium at, say, three prices: p < p0 < p̄. Suppose that the cheapest contract is acceptable to both type-v and type-v̄ consumers and the most expensive contract is acceptable only to type-v̄ consumers. But now, some firm has a profitable deviation. If the price p0 is acceptable to both types of consumers, then any firm charging p can raise its price without hurting its sales volume. Similarly, if p0 is accepted only by type-v̄ consumers, a firm charging p0 can boost its profits by raising its price. While a full argument must consider additional scenarios, the reasoning is similar. Aspects of Theorem 2 are similar to those identified by Curtis and Wright (2004), who propose a “law of two prices” within a monetary search model. The need to simultaneously 15 satisfy a family of incentive constraints supporting search behavior limits firms’ freedom to set prices in equilibrium. Despite this similarly, as we show below, our analysis leads to somewhat different conclusions concerning the incidence of price dispersion equilibria than those proposed by Curtis and Wright (2004). For instance, they show that equilibria with multiple prices occur for a wider range of parameters than equilibria with one price. Example 1, presented below, suggests the converse conclusion in our model. Theorem 2 allows for a considerable simplification of our analysis, as there are at most four classes of equilibria we need to consider. One class exhibits no price dispersion. Two goods are available and each good sells at a uniform price. The other three classes feature varying degrees of price dispersion. We focus on the two extreme cases in this quartet: (i) product differentiation and no price dispersion, and (ii) product differentiation with both goods selling at multiple prices. We comment briefly on the remaining cases—one good trading at multiple prices—in this section’s conclusion. Neither of these cases generate equilibria that Pareto-dominate the benchmark scenario. Thus, they are comparatively less interesting than the other cases considered. 4.1 Product Differentiation without Price Dispersion Starting with the first case, we begin with a lemma pinning-down the equilibrium prices. Implicitly, it also defines the equilibrium search pattern, as explained below. Lemma 1. Let 0 = h0, p0 i and 1 = h1, p1 i be the two contracts offered in an equilibrium with product differentiation and no price dispersion. Then p0 = z and p1 = v. Two immediate implications flow from Lemma 1. First, type-v consumers will never search in an equilibrium absent price dispersion. All offered contracts guarantee them a payoff of zero. Second, given Assumption A-1, a firm producing good 1 must in expectation sell its product to more than one consumer. Hence, type-v̄ consumers must search and accept 1 . This is a simple case of consumers self-sorting between products, a recurrent theme in both our model and real-world markets. The implied pattern of search and the flow of consumers is presented in Figure 1. After matching with a firm offering 0 = h0, p0 i, a type-v̄ consumer is unsatisfied; he searches until he finds a firm offering 1 = h1, p1 i. This flow is depicted by the solid arrows leading to 1 = h1, p1 i. In contrast, a type-v consumer finds both 0 and 1 acceptable. We can summarize the resulting equilibrium as follows. Theorem 3. Let ⇤ 1 = (v (1 16 c) )(v c z) . (1) 1 Key Type-v̄ Type-v ⇥ 0 Figure 1: The flow of consumers in an equilibrium with product differentiation but no price dispersion. Type-v consumers accept either contract while type-v̄ consumers search for 1 . There exists an equilibrium with product differentiation and no price dispersion if and only if s s ⇤ 1 ✓ v̄ ( ⇤1 )2 (1 z c 1 )(v c) + / ⇤ 1 ◆ and . (2) (3) In such an equilibrium, a typical firm offers the contract 1 = h1, vi with probability ⇤1 and ⇤ ⇤ 0 = h0, zi with probability 0 = 1 1 . On the equilibrium path, a type-v̄ consumer searches until he finds a firm offering the contract 1 , which he accepts. A type-v consumer does not search, and accepts the first contract available. As illustrated in Example 1 below, (2), (3), and Assumption A-1 can be simultaneously satisfied for a wide range of parameters. By inspection, we observe that (2) and (3) hold when search costs are sufficiently low (s ! 0). Conversely, if there are too few type-v̄ agents ( ! 0) such an equilibrium will not exist.16 The equilibrium in Theorem 3 sorts consumers between goods. However, this sorting is incomplete as good 1 is consumed by a mixed group of consumers. This outcome is crucial lest the market unravel. If a firm charges a price slightly more than v for good 1, its demand will fall. Hence producers of good 1 face a sharp incentive to maintain prices at a (relatively) 16 ⇤ 1 is increasing in . Hence, as ! 0, then ⇤ 1 ! 0. Condition (2) is eventually violated. 17 low level. Coincidentally, that same low price motivates type-v̄ consumers to search and it is their inflow that makes producing good 1 a profitable undertaking. Several intriguing comparative static implications follow easily from Theorem 3. First, equilibrium prices are independent of search costs and are driven by consumers’ valuations. Second, the equilibrium distribution of contracts does not vary with search cost. Instead, the propensity of a firm to produce good 1 increases ( ⇤1 ") as the fixed costs of production falls ( #), or as consumers’ preferences shift toward good 1 ( "). Since the firm-consumer ratio is one, a natural welfare criterion is the aggregate expected surplus generated by a firm-consumer pair. In the equilibrium without product differentiation, this value was z and the firm appropriated it all. When there is product differentiation, each firm’s profit declines to (1 )z; type-v̄ consumers enjoy a positive surplus; but, type-v consumers experience no welfare improvement. Aggregate welfare may increase or decrease depending on the model’s specifics, even when search costs are small. Corollary 1. Suppose search costs become small, i.e. s ! 0. The equilibrium with product differentiation and no price dispersion generates greater aggregate expected surplus than the equilibrium with no product differentiation if and only if v̄ z + v. 4.2 Product Differentiation and Price Dispersion The preceding subsection showed that when there is product differentiation but no price dispersion, some consumers benefit, others receive their reservation payoff, and firms’ profits decline. The aggregate outcome might be better or worse than had the local monopoly situation prevailed. These conclusions lack universal appeal. Ideally, we would like to identify cases where all consumers and all producers are better off relative to the benchmark case, at least in an ex ante sense. Whether such a Pareto-improvement is a realistic aspiration or a Pollyannish fantasy is not obvious a priori. Two facts hint at a possibility. First, searching consumers gain access to a wider set of producers allowing price comparisons. This trims firms’ market power. Thus, ensuring that consumers gain from active search does not seem too demanding. Second, consumer search has a cross-cutting implication for firm profits. Search generates a movement of consumers and also produces a sorting of consumer types. The former effect increases sales volumes while the latter allows for more targeted pricing. Both effects counteract firms’ weakened market power and will prove critical in supporting a Pareto-superior equilibrium. The first challenge is to ensure that consumers search actively in equilibrium. To justify costly search there must exist equilibrium contracts that consumers view as particularly 18 appealing. Promising carrots in equilibrium, however, poses a challenge for producers. The problem here is that firms have the incentive to free-ride whenever consumers search. We have in mind the following phenomenon. When consumers search for a prized contract, that contract must promise a sufficiently high reward and be offered by sufficiently many firms in order to justify the search costs incurred. When many firms offer the appealing contract, the consumer is confident his search will be worthwhile. Since search costs are incurred incrementally, a firm promising a very appealing contract has an incentive to slightly downgrade its offer. A searching consumer will still stop and buy rather than search further. The “deviating” downgraded contract does not affect a consumer’s beliefs but does trap him like flypaper before he finds the anticipated deal. This points to a subtle and underappreciated paradox present in search economies. A firm benefits from having a sufficient number of direct competitors since that induces consumers to search for its type of product. It therefore wants competitors to coordinate, but the firm itself seeks to miscoordinate with its competition in order to profit. The implied tension for an equilibrium is obvious. To add some formalism, from Theorem 2 we know that at most four contracts—say 0 , 1 , ˆ0 , and ˆ1 —can coexist in equilibrium. For notation, we let k = hk, pk i and ˆk = hk, p̂k i, with the convention that pk < p̂k . A typical firm follows a mixed strategy offering contract ˆ k (ˆk ) with probability k ( k ). With notation set, we can consider our first key lemma. This lemma accomplishes two tasks. First, it identifies constraints neutralizing the freeriding deviation described above. Second, coupled with Lemma 3 to follow, it defines the equilibrium pattern of consumer search. Lemma 2. Consider an equilibrium with product differentiation. 1. If good 0 sells at prices p0 and p̂0 , p0 < p̂0 , then z u⇤ (v̄). p̂0 = max{u⇤ (v), 0} and z p0 = 2. If good 1 sells at prices p1 and p̂1 , p1 < p̂1 , then v u⇤ (v̄). p1 = max{u⇤ (v), 0} and v̄ p̂1 = We can paraphrase Lemma 2 as follows. If a particular good’s prices are disperse, the prices at which the good trades must correspond to the agents’ reservation values. These reservation values are determined in equilibrium and account for both the goods’ intrinsic utility and the search-and-purchase strategy adopted by the agents. Generally, of course, these reservation values will differ for different types of agents. An implication of the four equalities in Lemma 2 is that in equilibrium no firm can increase its posted price even 19 slightly without alienating some consumers.17 This serves as a disciplinary force holding the equilibrium together. The same intuition is present in a variety of search models (Albrecht and Axell, 1984; Diamond, 1987). As noted above, we are particularly interested in equilibria with desirable welfare implications for both producers and consumers. This added requirement necessarily leads us to consider cases where both goods sell at multiple prices. Lemma 3. In any equilibrium that Pareto-dominates the equilibrium of Theorem 1. 1. All goods must trade at multiple prices. 2. On the equilibrium path, a type-v̄ agent searches when ˆ0 is available to him; else, he accepts 0 , 1 , or ˆ1 . A type-v agent searches when ˆ1 is available to him; else, he accepts 0 , ˆ0 , or 1 . Lemma 3 summarizes a complex pattern of consumer search, illustrated in Figure 2. First, from Lemma 2 we see that two contracts endogenously emerge as the “deals” motivating search. The preferred option of a type-v̄ consumer is 1 while a type-v consumer views 0 as best. Consumers hunt for their preferred contract, but may settle for a more expensive option or the other good should they stumble upon it. With the pattern of search determined, the equilibrium’s remaining necessary features briskly fall into place. Lemmas 2 and 3 allow us to characterize a typical consumer’s (cutoff) search strategy and the quantitative relationship among equilibrium prices. Lemma 4. Consider an equilibrium that Pareto-dominates the equilibrium of Theorem 1. 1. The cutoff values characterizing a consumer’s search strategy are u⇤ (v̄) = v̄ and u⇤ (v) = z p0 s/ 0 . p1 s/ 1 2. The prices associated with the contracts satisfy p̂0 = p0 + p̂1 = p1 + s p0 = p1 + p1 = p0 + 0 s 1 s 1 s 0 +z +v v̄ z Noting the relationship among prices, an immediate corollary is that v̄ v= s 0 17 + s . (4) 1 Intuitively, we might say that consumers feel a smidgen of indignation and refuse to purchase any good whose price even marginally exceeds expectations. 20 High Price Low Price Good 1 ⇥ 1 ˆ1 Key Type-v̄ Type-v Good 0 ⇥ 0 ˆ0 Figure 2: The flow of consumers in an equilibrium with product differentiation where both goods trade at multiple prices. Expression (4) carries two economic implications. First, it can be satisfied only if search costs are sufficiently small. Second, when search costs rise, the prevalence of at least one inexpensive contract must also rise. This response is counterintuitive since higher search costs suggest that firms’ market power should be enhanced, which favors a shift toward higher-priced goods. In equilibrium, however, the observed response is necessary to maintain consumers’ incentive to search. The search pattern also determines the profits associated with each contract. The lowprice contracts generate high volume sales while catering to a diverse group of consumers. High-priced contracts feature targeted prices and a homogenous clientele. Lemma 5. Consider an equilibrium that Pareto-dominates the equilibrium of Theorem 1. The expected profits associated with each contract are: ⇧j ( 1 ) = ⇧j ( 0 ) = ✓ 1 1 ✓ 1 1 ˆ1 ˆ1 + + 1 ˆ0 1 ˆ0 ◆ ◆ (p1 c) , ⇧j (ˆ1 ) = ⇧j (ˆ0 ) = p0 , 1 1 ˆ0 1 ˆ1 (p̂1 c) , p̂0 . In an equilibrium, of course, the expected profits must be the same across all offered contracts. Solving ⇧j ( 0 ) = ⇧j (ˆ0 ), ⇧j ( 1 ) = ⇧j (ˆ1 ), and using Lemma 4 allows us to express 21 equilibrium prices as a function of the distribution of contracts. That is, p0 = 1 1 ˆ0 1 · ˆ1 · s and p1 = c + 0 1 ˆ1 1 ˆ0 1 · · s Thus, we can characterize the equilibrium entirely as a distribution of contracts— 0 , satisfying (4), (5), and the following four conditions: ⇧j ( 0 ) = ⇧j ( 1 ), s p1 = p0 + +v (5) . 1 1, ˆ0, ˆ1— (6) z, (7) + ˆ 0 + ˆ 1 , and (8) 0 z p0 1= s 0 + 1 (9) 0 0 Expression (6) ensures the equality in profits; (7) ensures the remaining relationship among equilibrium prices is satisfied; (8) ensures the ’s define a valid probability distribution; and, (9) ensures type-v agents wish to search, i.e. u⇤ (v) 0. All remaining constraints have either been eliminated or incorporated into the above expressions. The preceding discussion confirms that conditions (4)–(9) are necessary for the equilibrium we wish to construct. They encapsulate and simplify two sets of requirements. First, the equilibrium distribution of contracts must ensure that the expected profits of each firm are the same taking as given consumers’ search behavior. This requirement simultaneously restricts the frequency with which different contracts are offered and the prices associated with each good. Second, the equilibrium contract distribution must ensure that consumers’ payoffs respect the constraints in Lemma 2, thereby ensuring the required pattern of search is consistent with equilibrium prices. Complementary activity of the two sides of the market is therefore critical for the equilibrium to be sustained. Satisfying conditions (4)–(9) is also sufficient to sustain an equilibrium where both goods trade at multiple prices (Lemma A.15). Whereas the complexity of the required conditions suggests that equilibria conforming to our desiderata are rare, this is not the case. The following example offers some guidance when we may expect such equilibria to emerge and when different types of equilibria coexist. Example 1. Consider an economy where v̄ = 4, v = z = 1, = 1/3, and c = 0. Depending on the magnitude of the search cost and the distribution of agents’ preferences, this economy may feature one equilibrium or multiple equilibria. Figure 3 summarizes the present 22 1 Good Monopoly Outcome ( = 1) 2 Goods No Price Dispersion ( < 1) Price Dispersion ( < 1) Price Dispersion ( > 1) Figure 3: Multiple equilibria with product differentiation and price dispersion. equilibria as a function of ( , s).18 The one-product equilibrium of Theorem 1 always exists. It is the unique equilibrium when is sufficiently low. Given our parameterization, a typical firm’s profit is equal to 1 in this equilibrium. An equilibrium with product differentiation, but no price dispersion (Theorem 3), is common once is sufficiently large (the gray region). In this equilibrium, the profits of a typical firm are 1 , which is less than in the one-product benchmark scenario. If is sufficiently large and search costs are sufficiently small, equilibria with both product differentiation and price dispersion occur as well (the hatched region). Quite often such cases lead to profits exceeding the benchmark case. For instance, when s = 0.03 and = 0.3, a typical firms’ expected profit is approximately 1.18. This final case, and others like it in the lower-right corner of Figure 3, Pareto-dominates the benchmark scenario as consumer also enjoy a positive surplus as well. The welfare implications associated with Example 1 are its key conclusion. The incentives created by the economy’s multiple goods and dispersed prices ensure that consumers search and sort among producers. While the resulting reshuffling of consumers is less than perfect (some consumers do not purchase the item that they value the most), it sufficiently improves matters to ensure that good 1 producers face adequate demand to render their production 18 To construct the figure we solved numerically for an equilibrium contract distribution satisfying conditions (4)–(9) over a fine grid of the parameter space. 23 profitable. Surprisingly, producers of good 0 also gain. Intermediate Price Dispersion We have thus far focused on two extreme equilibria with product differentiation. Either uniform prices prevail or all goods trade a multiple prices. Intermediate cases are possible as well, though such equilibria do not enjoy the appealing welfare and profit implications of the preceding case (see Lemma 3 above). For example, it is straightforward to construct an equilibrium where good 0 trades at price p0 = z and good 1 trades at prices p1 = v < p̂1 . A type-v consumer never engages in search and a type-v̄ consumer searches for good 1, which he buys at both high and low prices. As in the equilibrium of Theorem 3, firms’ profits are (1 )z.19 Similar logic lets us construct an equilibrium where good 0 trades at multiple prices as well. 5 Interpretations and Extensions To focus on important economic effects, we kept our model spare and simple. Naturally, building on this streamlined formulation allows for many extensions and alternative interpretations. First, several technical amendments are possible. Our model extends to the case of multiple consumer types and multiple goods.20 The importance of imperfect or incomplete sorting of consumers as a mechanism that ties an equilibrium together continues to apply. Second, with appropriate parameter restrictions, our model applies to a variety of problems. Markets with vertically-differentiated products, like our luxury/standard taxicab example, require the restrictions z v < v̄ or v < v̄ z.21 When offered at the same price, either good 1 or good 0 is universally preferred. To study a market with horizontallydifferentiated products, such as restaurants, it is sufficient to adopt the convention that v < z < v̄. Now consumers disagree about which good is superior. Some prefer French cuisine while others view Japanese food as more appetizing. Our model’s ability to accommodate both vertical and horizontal differentiation spans the ways in which new products surface. For example, Bower and Christensen (1995) and 19 +(1 )z v Such equilibria are comparatively tractable. Notably: p̂1 = v + s/ 1 , 0 = (1 c+ )c+ +(1 )(z v) , 1 = s ˆ 0 1 . Given the parameters of Example 1, it can be shown that an ( +(1 )z) 0 (v c) , and 1 = 1 equilibrium in this class exists whenever there exists an equilibrium with product differentiation and no price dispersion (the gray region in Figure 3). Examples exist showing that this inclusion is not true in general. 20 In a preliminary version of our analysis we considered a continuum of consumer types. In such a model, there is additionally an endogenous cutoff consumer type delineating who seeks out good 1 versus good 0. 21 Wildenbeest (2011) develops a search model, along with an empirical analysis, focusing on vertically differentiated products. 24 Christensen (1997) argue that new goods frequently enter at lower quality-tiers than existing products. Nevertheless, with a careful pricing strategy targeting the appropriate market segment such new goods can be very profitable (Christensen, 1997). The emergence of large discount retailers and of no-frills airlines represent prime examples. Innovation along a horizontal dimension rests on identifying products tailored to specific groups of consumers. Many innovations in the technological realm, such as the file-sharing services mentioned earlier, produce markets where multiple competitors offer modestly different capabilities that appeal differentially to alternative consumers. Our model accommodates all of these situations. Third, labor markets are a prime example where search is paramount. A relabeling transposes our model to a labor-market context where firms search to recruit skilled workers.22 In this case a worker may choose whether to invest to upgrade his human capital or skill. Skilled workers supply higher quality labor (good 1) while unskilled workers supply lower quality labor (good 0). Type-v̄ employers are more eager to hire skilled workers than type-v employers. Firms search for employees and incur a per-candidate interview cost, s. The economy’s wage distribution, i.e. the distribution of prices, is the equilibrium outcome of firms and workers interacting in this labor market with workers choosing whether to acquire human capital. Finally, many economically-motivated extensions are also easily accessible. We briefly outline some of these below. For brevity and clarity, in each extension we confine our attention to equilibria with product differentiation but no price dispersion (as in Theorem 3), and we suppress many technical caveats. More complex equilibria can also be constructed with parallel implications to our preceding analysis. 5.1 Orphaned Consumers We have assumed that each consumer knows the contract offer of a local producer. In practice however, a local producer may not exist. For example, upon realizing the need to take a taxi, a consumer may observe that no taxis are around. To accommodate this situation, suppose that after firms have made their production decisions, but before consumers learn any contract offers, with probability 1 q each firm experiences an independent shock that prevents it from selling any goods. Consequently, an orphaned consumer’s initial set of 22 As documented by van Ommeren and Russo (2013), sequential search by firms appears to be an important recruitment practice. However, they qualify this conclusion noting that it depends on the common role of formal and informal search methods in the market under study. 25 available contracts is empty and, occasionally, a searching consumer may “find” a firm that has gone out of business. Otherwise, the model remains unchanged. The main conclusions of our original analysis continue to apply. In an equilibrium with product differentiation but no price dispersion, firms would offer contracts 0 = h0, zi and 1 = h1, vi. Of course, the shock impacts profitability; accordingly, the equilibrium contract distribution adjusts. The probability that a firm offers good 1 now becomes (v c) ⇤ . Also, and in common with the remaining extensions below, the suffi1 = (1 )q(v c z) cient and necessary conditions for this equilibrium to exist—analogous to those from Theorem 3—need to be amended appropriately. (We omit these calculations for brevity.) Formalities notwithstanding, our model’s qualitative behavior remains unchanged. 5.2 Multi-Unit Purchases Consider the problem faced by a visitor looking for lodging in an unfamiliar city. If the traveler intends a long stay, he has a greater incentive to invest in an extensive search for the right accommodations. The returns to a thorough search are far less for a one-time, one-night visit. Within a broad range of prices, almost any hotel will do. We address this situation by comparing one- and multi-unit purchasers. Some consumers buy only one unit of a good while others acquire ⌧ > 1 units. The fraction of consumers are multi-unit purchasers. We continue to assume that good 0 has uniform appeal. Each consumer’s willingness to pay is z. Preferences for good 1 are heterogenous. Multi-unit purchasers are willing to pay v̄ per unit. Its value to one-time buyers is v. This formalization relates simply to our hotel example. Good 0 is a standard hotel located in the city center that caters to short-term business travelers. Good 1 is a long-term hotel that offers amenities that are more valuable to long-term guests (for example, kitchenettes), but which are not important for one-night visitors.23 As usual, there exists an equilibrium where only h0, zi is provided. However, if type-v̄ consumers search, providers of good 1 will spring up. Again consider an equilibrium with product differentiation but no price dispersion. Even though a fraction of consumers wishes to purchase multiple copies of a good, a moment of reflection suggests that the usual two contracts will be on offer: 0 = h0, zi and 1 = h1, vi. As before, the equilibrium distribution of contracts must adjust. Now, ⇤1 = (1 ⌧ (v)(vc)c z) , which generalizes our original result. 23 As v̄ < z is possible, the long-term hotel may be located a couple of bus stops away from the city center. Given the costs of understanding the bus system, it may be objectively inferior to the standard hotel for one-night stayers. 26 5.3 Increasing Search Costs Although a standard assumption in the literature, a consumer’s search costs are rarely constant in practice. Rather, search costs typically rise over time. The increasing marginal cost of time, and the limiting case of deadlines, provide reasons why this is so. A more subtle reason search costs drift upward is that a person’s search technology deteriorates as he substitutes toward more costly (or less effective) search methods once easy options get exhausted.24 In Appendix A.6 we generalize our model by assuming that search costs rise over time. Under suitable conditions, we show that there exists an equilibrium paralleling our results from Theorem 3. Firms offer 0 = h0, zi or 1 = h1, vi and a type-v̄ consumer searches for 1 . However, a searching consumer settles for 0 if his search fails to yield a positive result sufficiently quickly. As above, type-v consumers forgo search entirely. A qualitatively similar behavioral pattern emerges when a searching consumer has a constant search cost but is learning about the distribution of contracts as he goes along.25 The associated intuition is simple. A consumer embarks on his quest with an air of optimism believing his desired product is likely around the corner. Since he is uncertain regarding the actual distribution of contracts, each unfavorable draw dulls his confidence. Eventually, pessimism takes over and he settles for what is available. 5.4 Adverse Selection and Insurance As a final extension, consider the case of adverse selection.26 As a specific example, consider health insurance.27 Individuals who are willing to pay more for health coverage, tend to be those who consume the most medical resources. Hence, insuring them is more costly. Insurance markets are also complex, and thoughtfully searching among alternative policies is often difficult. Even in cases where the direct costs of search are low, such as Medigap insurance, where policies are standardized and quotes are posted on the internet, the perception of high search costs likely deters many consumers from seriously investigating their options.28 24 Osberg (1993) recognizes the substitution among search methods in an empirical study of job search. See McCall (1970) or Rothschild (1974) for formal analyses. 26 Recent studies of search economies with adverse selection include Inderst (2005), Guerrieri et al. (2010), and Lauermann and Wolinsky (2013). Related studies focusing on insurance markets include Mathewson (1983), Schlesinger and von der Schulenburg (1991), and Seog (2002). 27 Cutler and Zeckhauser (2000) summarize this market’s key features. Our model does not address moral hazard which, along with adverse selection, is an important caveat in studying insurance markets. 28 Lin and Wildenbeest (2013) and Kim (2013) both find the presence of substantial search fictions in the market for Medigap insurance. 25 27 Search frictions facilitate higher insurance premiums by reinforcing insurers’ market power (Cebul et al., 2011). Samuelson and Zeckhauser (1988) document the high persistence in health insurance plan choice among Harvard employees. Search costs, of course, provide one explanation for this observation. Consider an insurance market and assume that both types of consumers have a willingness to pay of z for a “standard” policy (good 0). The “premium” policy (good 1) offers enhanced coverage and elicits a willingness to pay of v and v̄ from the two types of consumers. The fixed cost of supplying the premium policy ( ) can be interpreted as an extra administrative cost, or the cost of establishing a network of higher-quality health-care providers. To accommodate adverse selection, we depart from our baseline model in two ways. The first departure is substantive. Suppose that the cost of serving a customer depends on the customer’s type. Type-v̄ consumers are at high health risk and the marginal cost of providing them coverage is c0 when they enroll in a standard policy and it is c1 > c0 when they enroll in a premium policy. Type-v consumers have a low health risk. The cost of insuring a type-v consumer is normalized to zero, regardless of the policy that they purchase. Ex ante, an insurer cannot distinguish between the two types of consumers. The second departure is technical. For the sake of argument suppose that v (c1 c0 ) < (1 and )z (v̄ c1 + c0 ) < z. (A-10 ) (A-10 ) gently modifies Assumption A-1 on account of the novel cost structure. Furthermore, to focus on a case where adverse selection impedes the market’s operation, suppose z < c0 < c1 < v < v̄. An equilibrium exists where no one searches. The no-search equilibrium may take one of two forms. First, if ⇡0 = (z c0 ) + (1 )z < 0, then insurance provision is not profitable and no coverage will be available. In this case, adverse selection effectively destroys the market. The second possibility is less ominous. It occurs when ⇡0 = (z c0 ) + (1 )z 0. Now in equilibrium all firms offer the basic policy 0 = h0, zi and all consumers accept it immediately. Since z < c0 , the presence of high-risk consumers reduces the profitability of a standard policy. In both cases, despite the presence of many consumers who could be well-served by an enhanced policy, no firm will offer it. Consider the case where consumers search for insurance. Now two types of insurance contracts will be offered: 0 = h0, zi and 1 = h1, vi. Type-v̄ consumers will search to find 28 an enhanced policy while type-v consumers will default into either option without bothering to search. The consequences of this behavior are surprisingly beneficial. A firm’s equilibrium profit increases to (1 )z and consumers gain as well. Type-v consumers are no worse off, while type-v̄ consumers now enjoy access to their preferred product. Search behavior and the costly self-sorting of consumers has led to a Pareto improvement. In this regard, coordinating on an outcome where it is common practice for consumers to “shop around,” even if the direct costs of search remain relatively high, can prove beneficial. Given the contrast between the no-search and search equilibria, it is instructive to investigate policies that can nudge a market toward the Pareto-superior outcome. As in the original model, several conditions must be satisfied. First, type-v̄ consumers must consider search worthwhile. A type-v̄ consumer begins to search when the fraction of firms offering ⇤ v s/ 1 0, or equivalently 1 , 1 , is large enough. More formally, u (v̄) = v̄ 1 s ¯1 ⌘ v̄ v (10) . When the fraction of firms offering 1 exceeds ¯ 1 , it is sufficiently easy for type-v̄ consumers to find their desired contract. Second, it is straightforward to show that when 0 = h0, zi and 1 = h1, vi are the available policies and type-v̄ consumers search for 1 , fraction ⇤ 1 (v (1 = c1 ) )(v z) (11) of firms must offer 1 in equilibrium. Expression (11) is the direct analogue of (1) from Section 4.1. It ensures that 0 and 1 are equally profitable for the firms given the pattern of consumer search.29 Together, (10) and (11) imply that ¯1 ⇤ 1 (12) is a necessary condition for an equilibrium with product differentiation. Finally, in direct parallel to (2) in Theorem 3 above, search costs cannot be too high, i.e. s ( ⇤1 )2 (1 )v . (13) If they were, a premium-policy firm would be tempted to slightly raise its price while still catering to high-risk consumers who happen to find its offer first. 29 Using (A-10 ) it can be shown that 0 < ⇤ 1 < 1. 29 The policy implications of (11), (12) and (13) are straightforward. First, if no consumers are engaged in search, then policies that only reduce costs per search (s) fail to generate benefits. Consumers have no incentive to utilize a superior or cheaper search technology if there is nothing to find in the first place. By contrast, a policy that encourages the supply of 1 to rise has the potential to be more effective in practice. For example, a lump-sum subsidy of paid to any firm that offers 1 = h1, vi can help offset its fixed cost. The required magnitude if the subsidy depends on the market’s default state. If in the absence of consumer search 0 is a profitable contract, i.e. ⇡0 0, a subsidy of = ⇡0 ⇡1 , where ⇡1 = (v c1 ) + (1 )v , is sufficient to ensure that a firm is indifferent between offering 0 or 1 .30 Crucially, the subsidy need only be taken up by fraction ¯ 1 of firms. Once that threshold is met, consumers become confident that their search activity will be rewarded, the market for 1 thickens rapidly, and 1 becomes profitable on its own merits. Similarly, if ⇡0 < 0 and no insurance is available, subsidizing fraction ¯ 1 of firms to offer the premium 1 policy would allow the market to surface, giving all consumers a choice between deluxe and basic insurance policies. Thus, the targeted support of one new product can encourage close substitutes to ride into the market on its coattails. In this case, a subsidy of = ⇡1 would be sufficient.31 A simple cost-benefit calculation can determine if and when and if these policies are worthwhile. Generally, their effectiveness is greater whenever search costs are relatively small and the main obstacle to overcome is the coordination problem between consumers and firms.32 30 (A-10 ) ensures that = ⇡0 ⇡1 0. The firm is indifferent between 0 and 1 conditional on no consumer engaging in search. In expectations, this is the most pessimistic case from a firms’ perspective. 31 This subsidy level ensures that a firm is indifferent between offering 1 or no policy conditional on no consumer searching. 32 Assuming the direct policy implementation costs are negligible, the subsidy is worthwhile from a costbenefit perspective if the gain in consumer welfare and firm profits exceeds the subsidy. For example, when ⇡0 > 0 then the proposed subsidy is worthwhile if | (v̄ + z s(1 + 1/ {z [1] ⇤ 1 )) + } | (c0 z) {z } [2] ¯1 |{z} (14) [3] Term [1] is the per-capita change in ex ante consumer welfare. Term [2] is the per-firm change in firm profits. And term [3] is the per-firm subsidy cost. Since ¯ 1 = s/(v̄ v), (14) will be satisfied when s is sufficiently small. A similar analysis applies to the ⇡0 < 0 case. 30 6 Concluding Remarks Our simple model highlights a market-creation externality that emerges when consumers search. Search leads to both product differentiation and heightened competition. The effects we emphasized operate through the enhanced sorting that costly search behavior necessarily spawns. On many occasions, equilibria with active search produce greater welfare and higher profits. This conclusion persists despite the deadweight of search costs (which consumers must bear), and despite firms’ curtailed market power (which dampens their profits). Before concluding, we would like to explain how our model contrasts with previous analyses that emphasize search externalities or that employ similar terminology. Shimer and Smith (2001) discuss both the thick-market and congestion externalities tied to search behavior. Our setting revolves around distinct, albeit related, effects. First, regarding thick markets, we have argued that search supports market expansion and creation. However, search behavior alone cannot foster this expansion. Rather, it requires market entry by producers as well as consumer search. By coordinating around an outcome with superior sorting, local markets for particular goods thicken. On the one hand, this effect ensures that it is safe for producers to offer new products. On the other hand, consumers become sufficiently confident in their prospects for a successful search to incur the associated costs. A congestion externality, as described by Shimer and Smith (2001), is not present in our environment. In our setting, a firm can match with an unlimited number of consumers, and thus consumers do not elbow out one another. That said, our environment exhibits a related pecuniary externality. As more firms produce a specific good, they steal some consumers from their direct competitors. This effect exists in any market, so is to be expected. Our conclusions concerning consumer sorting are distinct from the sorting externalities studied by Burdett and Coles (1997). Derived in the context of a dynamic “marriage market” setting, their sorting externality refers to the change in the distribution of available partners as agents match and subsequently exit the market (Burdett and Coles, 1999). These specific effects play no role in our setting. In practical terms, we allow producers to practice polygamy. Thus, consumers experience no direct effect from the search activity of other agents. The indirect effects can be substantial, as we have explained above. Our model was kept spare to plainly exhibit the effects of interest. Many extensions beyond those proposed here may be pursued. For example, our study focused on the case of competitive firms. Allowing for oligopolistic firms or a monopolist, who can internalize some 31 of the highlighted externalities, would complement our model.33 Our conclusions should carry over to these alternative market structures. Similarly, we have abstracted from the role of advertising in our analysis (Robert and Stahl, 1993).34 A natural way to introduce advertising into our model is to allow consumers to direct their search toward producers offering products they like, without wasting effort visiting suppliers of the other good.35 Thus, a consumer’s search would focus on a subset of firms, but he still incurs a cost to learn the details of a firm’s offer. In this model, the added information helps consumers, but it may fail to bring benefits to firms absent a robust search effort among all consumers. For example, if only type-v̄ consumers search for good 1 and type-v̄ consumers find both goods acceptable, as in the equilibrium of Section 4.1 above, all firms’ equilibrium profits remain (1 )z. Though consumers benefit in comparison to the single-good, monopoly price outcome, firms profits end up lower. Other forms of advertising, particularly those that serve as a coordination device on the search-intensive equilibrium, may help sustain more appealing market-wide outcomes.36 A natural interpretation of our model concerns comparisons across different markets, with some markets exhibiting search-intensive equilibria, and others characterized by buyers’ ready acceptance of sellers. Alternatively, the model can also be viewed as a description of the same market operating at different moments in time. The sale of existing homes offers an illustration. While homes are bought and sold throughout the year, it is well known that existing home sales cluster in the spring and summer. Patient sellers are often advised not to list their house in the fall or winter, since few people are searching for homes then. (Stale houses tend to lose their value, and it is also somewhat costly in terms of convenience to have one’s house on the market.) In the spring many people are searching, so houses are listed on the market in vastly disproportionate numbers. Throughout the year this market moves between a period of collectively focused search among many types of buyers and a period when search is far less intense. Despite the fact that disproportionately many other sellers are listing their homes at the same time, a patient seller often gains by waiting for the search-intensive period in the spring to sell. An extension examining the transition among equilibria would naturally capture this dynamic. As suggested by our brief analysis 33 A monopolist could produce many versions of the same product or offer multiple goods. Bagwell (2007) offers a review of models of advertising in economic analysis, including search economies. 35 In this sense search becomes partially directed (Menzio, 2007; Goldberg, 2007). For example, consumers have a list of all firms offering good 0 and good 1 and can use this list to guide their store visits. 36 There is evidence that certain markets may display the qualities of a “search-intensive” equilibrium. For example, Couture (2012) documents the distances travelled in search for restaurant meals in U.S. cities. Consumers often forgo close options in favor of establishments further afield. 34 32 in Section 5.4, such transitions would undoubtably feature a critical thresholds of buyers and sellers beyond which the market would tip—in the sense of Schelling (1969, 1971)—toward an equilibrium with a significantly higher search intensity. The economic effect we have emphasized—a search-generated and coordination-supported market enhancement externality—is central in many markets. Capitalizing on this effect should be a policy goal. While reducing search costs directly is certainly beneficial, as a policy it is unlikely to be as effective on the margin in markets where few consumers undertake active search. The fundamental coordination problem between consumers and producers may remain unresolved. Even if search costs are consequential, the welfare gains from a search-intensive equilibrium can be substantial as new markets and new business opportunities arise due to this search activity. The recent emergence of ride-share and taxi-like services like Uber and Lyft provides but one example where enhanced search (in this case due to the enormous capabilities of the Internet) enables a multi-product equilibrium to supplant one with a single product. 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A Proofs A.1 Preliminary Lemmas Lemma A.1. Consider a type-vi consumer who has access to contract j . Suppose this consumer believes that all firms not yet sampled are following the same independent production/pricing strategy, ˜ 2 (⌃). Define u⇤ (vi ) as the unique solution to37 ⇥ ⇤ u⇤ (vi ) = E ˜ max{u⇤ (vi ), u( |vi ), 0} (A.1) s. 1. If max{u( j |vi ), 0} u⇤ (vi ), then it is optimal for consumer i to accept the market if 0 > u( j |vi )). j (or, to exit 2. If u⇤ (vi ) > max{u( j |vi ), 0}, then it is optimal for consumer i to learn the contract offer of the next firm at a cost of s. Proof. Consumer i’s decision problem is essentially one of sequentially sampling from a stationary distribution of independently and identically distributed random variables. The value of each sampled contract is the random variable [u( |vi ) _ 0]. (Each sample’s value is bounded below by zero since a consumer may opt out of the market.) The distribution of this value is derived from the distribution of , which the consumer believes to be ˜ 2 (⌃). Since prices are non-negative, the expectation of [u( |vi ) _ 0] exists. By DeGroot (1970, Sections 13.5 and 13.9), the optimal strategy for the consumer is the above cutoff rule. Lemma A.2. Suppose there exists an equilibrium where all firms adopt the strategy ⇤ . Let u⇤ (vi ) be the cutoff value describing a type-vi consumer’s equilibrium search strategy. Let ⇤ be a contract such that: 1. u( ⇤ |v̄) > max{u⇤ (v̄), 0} and u( ⇤ |v) > max{u⇤ (v), 0}; or, 2. u( ⇤ |v̄) > max{u⇤ (v̄), 0} and max{u⇤ (v), 0} > u( ⇤ |v); or, 37 The notation in (A.1) is self-explanatory. Here, “ ” is random. Its distribution is ˜. 39 3. max{u⇤ (v̄), 0} > u( ⇤ |v̄) and u( ⇤ |v) > max{u⇤ (v), 0}. Then ⇤ is not in the support of ⇤ . That is, there exists an alternative contract that gives firm j strictly greater profits than ⇤ given consumers’ search behavior. Proof. We give the proof for case 1 with the remaining cases following analogously. Suppose the conditions of the lemma are satisfied and that firm j posts ⇤ . This contract is accepted by both types of consumers whenever they encounter firm j. Suppose firm j offers instead the contract ✏⇤ , which is identical to ⇤ except that it sets a price that is ✏ > 0 greater. Suppose ✏ is sufficiently small so that u( ⇤ |v̄) > u( ✏⇤ |v̄) > max{u⇤ (v̄), 0} and u( ⇤ |v) > u( ✏⇤ |v) > max{u⇤ (v), 0}. Clearly, ✏⇤ is accepted by both types of consumers whenever ⇤ was. Hence ✏⇤ is accepted by the same expected number of consumers as ⇤ . Since this number is strictly greater than zero and since ✏⇤ is associated with a strictly higher price, it will generate greater expected profits than ⇤ . Therefore, ⇤ cannot be a contract that is offered in equilibrium. Lemma A.3. Let u⇤ (vi ) be the cutoff value characterizing a consumer’s search strategy. (1) u⇤ (v̄) u⇤ (v). (2) If u⇤ (vi ) 0, then there exists some in the support of ˜ such that u( |vi ) > u⇤ (vi ). d Proof. Suppose ⇠ ˜. To simplify notation, define the real-valued random variable Xvi = [u( |vi ) _ 0]. Let Fvi (x) be the associated distribution function. Since u( |v̄) u( |v) for all , Xv̄ first-order stochastically dominates Xv . Hence Fv (x) Fv̄ (x) for all x. Finally, we R can write u⇤ (vi ) = max{u⇤ (vi ), x}dFvi s. For this equality to hold, Fvi (u⇤ (vi )) < 1. 1. We argue by contradiction. Suppose u⇤ (v̄) < u⇤ (v). Since Xv̄ first-order stochastically R R dominates Xv , u⇤ (v) = max{u⇤ (v), x}dFv s max{u⇤ (v), x}dFv̄ s. Thus, ⇤ u (v) ⇤ u (v̄) Z Z ⇤ max{u (v), x}dFv̄ (u⇤ (v) (u⇤ (v) (u⇤ (v) Z max{u⇤ (v̄), x}dFv̄ u⇤ (v̄))1(x u⇤ (v̄))dFv̄ u⇤ (v̄))Fv̄ (u⇤ (v)) u⇤ (v̄))Fv (u⇤ (v)) Since Fv (u⇤ (v)) < 1, we arrive at a contradiction. Therefore, u⇤ (v̄) u⇤ (v). 2. Again we proceed by contradiction. Suppose u( |vi ) u⇤ (vi ) for all in the support of ˜. Then, u⇤ (vi ) = E ˜[max{u⇤ (vi ), u( |vi ), 0}] s E ˜[max{u⇤ (vi ), u⇤ (vi ), 0}] s = u⇤ (vi ) s, which is a contradiction since s > 0. 40 A.2 Proof of Theorem 1 Lemma A.4 is used in the proof of Theorem 1, which follows. Lemma A.4. There does not exist an equilibrium where only good 1 is produced. Proof. We divide the argument into three cases. Throughout we assume that if a firm produces good 1, it sets a price in the interval [c, v̄]. Prices below c and above v̄ lead to negative profits. 1. Suppose there exists an equilibrium where all firms offer ⇤ = h1, pi, p 2 [c, v̄]. Since all firms are offering the same contract, u⇤ (vi ) = max{u( ⇤ |vi ) s, s} for vi 2 {v, v̄}. There are two sub-cases, each generating a contradiction. (a) Suppose p v. If p < v, then u( ⇤ |v) > max{u⇤ (v), 0} and u( ⇤ |v̄) > max{u⇤ (v̄), 0}. By Lemma A.2 this is a contradiction. Hence, p = v. Therefore, the profits of a typical firm must be v c . Suppose firm j offers instead the contract h0, zi. This contract is acceptable to all type-v consumers and firm j ensures itself an expected profit of at least (1 )z. By Assumption A-1, (1 )z > v c . Hence, this alternative contract is more profitable—a contradiction. (b) Suppose instead that p 2 (v, v̄]. By reasoning analogous to the preceding case we conclude that p = v̄. Thus, a typical firm’s profit (v̄ c) . Now, the contract h0, zi is acceptable by both types of consumer and will yield an expected profit of z. Noting Assumption A-1, z > (v̄ c) . Again, this is a contradiction. 2. Suppose there exists an equilibrium with price dispersion where all firms produce good 1 but consumers do not search. Thus, each firm sells its product to at most one consumer. Suppose = h1, pi and ˆ = h1, p̂i, c p < p̂ v̄, are two contracts available in equilibrium. Since a type-v̄ consumer does not search, max{u⇤ (v̄), 0} u(ˆ |v̄) < u( |v̄). If max{u⇤ (v), 0} u(ˆ |v), then both contracts would be accepted by both types of consumers on the equilibrium path. Such an outcome is not compatible with profit equalization across contracts in equilibrium. Hence, u(ˆ |v) < max{u⇤ (v), 0} u( |v). 41 If max{u⇤ (v), 0} < u( |v), then Lemma A.2 implies a contradiction. Thus, max{u⇤ (v), 0} = u( |v). Similarly, max{u⇤ (v̄), 0} = u(ˆ |v̄). Since the preceding reasoning applies to all pairs of contracts there are at most two contracts available in this equilibrium. If u⇤ (v) 0, then by Lemma A.3 there must exist some available contract, say ˜ = h1, p̃i, such that u(˜ |v) > u⇤ (v). But this is a contradiction. Hence, u⇤ (v) < 0. Therefore, u( |v) = 0, which implies p = v. Thus, the expected profit of a typical firm in equilibrium is v c < (1 )z. But then any firm offering can increase its expected profit by posting h0, zi instead—a contradiction. 3. Suppose there exists an equilibrium with price dispersion where all firms produce good 1 but (some) consumers do search on the equilibrium path. If a consumer ever searches, he will certainly also search whenever he matches with the most expensive contract in the economy. Let ˆ = h1, p̂i be that contract. Note that both types of consumers cannot search on the equilibrium path after matching with ˆ . Otherwise, any firm offering it would earn strictly negative profits. Hence, there are two cases. (a) Suppose a type-v consumer searches on the equilibrium path. Thus, u⇤ (v) 0 and u(ˆ |v) u⇤ (v). Since ˆ must be acceptable to some type of consumer, max{u⇤ (v̄), 0} u(ˆ |v̄). Since u⇤ (v) 0, by Lemma A.3 there exists some contract in the support of the firm’s strategy, = h1, pi, such that u⇤ (v) < u( |v). But, without loss of generality, this also implies 0 u⇤ (v) u⇤ (v̄) < u( |v̄), which contradicts Lemma A.2. (b) Suppose a type-v̄ consumer searches on the equilibrium path. Thus, u⇤ (v̄) 0, u(ˆ |v̄) u⇤ (v̄), and max{u⇤ (v), 0} u(ˆ |v). By Lemma A.3 there exists some contract in the support of the firm’s strategy, = h1, pi, such that u⇤ (v̄) < u( |v̄). But this also implies max{u⇤ (v), 0} < u( |v). Again, we contradict Lemma A.2. The three cases considered are exhaustive of the situations that may occur if only good 1 is produced. Proof of Theorem 1. We first argue that the proposed situation is an equilibrium. If every firm offers ⇤ = h0, zi and consumers believe this to be the case, no consumer searches. Firm profits are z. No firm can gain by offering h0, pi, p < z. Since no consumer is searching, this alternative contract implies lower profits. If instead a firm offers h1, pi, its expected profits are bounded above by max{v c , (v̄ c) } < z (Assumption A-1). Hence, this too is not a profitable deviation. Therefore, the market is in equilibrium. 42 Lemma A.4 shows that there cannot exist an equilibrium where only good 1 is produced. Thus, to establish uniqueness it is sufficient to show that there is no other equilibrium where only good 0 is produced. Let ⇤ be the equilibrium strategy of a typical firm in a symmetric equilibrium where only good 0 is produced. In this equilibrium, each firm must earn strictly positive profits. To see this fact, note that firm j can offer the contract j = h0, ✏i where 0 < ✏ < s. Even if consumer i = j believed all other firms were offering good 0 at a price of zero, he would still prefer to accept j without any search. This gives firm j a profit of at least ✏. Since a firm’s equilibrium profit is strictly greater than zero, every contract in the support of ⇤ must satisfy u( |vi ) max{u⇤ (vi ), 0}. (Note that u⇤ (v̄) = u⇤ (v) since only good 0 is available.) By Lemma A.2, this implies u( |vi ) = max{u⇤ (vi ), 0}. Hence, there is at most one contract offered in this equilibrium. But this implies u( |vi ) = 0 and so z = p. A.3 Proof of Theorem 2 Theorem 2 is proved by Lemmas A.5–A.12. In each lemma we assume that there exists a symmetric equilibrium with product differentiation. ⇤ denotes the equilibrium strategy of a typical firm. Ck is the set of contracts in the support of ⇤ that provide good k. Lemma A.5. In an equilibrium with product differentiation, u⇤ (v̄) 0. Proof. Suppose 0 > u⇤ (v̄). By Lemma A.3, 0 > u⇤ (v̄) u⇤ (v). No consumer finds it worthwhile search. Any firm offering h0, pi will have an incentive to increase p until p = z since both types of consumers accept h0, pi for all p z. Hence, in equilibrium each firm earns z in profits. Since no consumers search, the maximal expected profits of a firm offering good 1 are bounded above by max{ (v̄ c) ,v c } < z, contradicting the equality of expected profits across equilibrium contracts. Lemma A.6. There exists ⇤ 2 C1 such that u( ⇤ |v̄) > u⇤ (v̄). Proof. Suppose the contrary. If u( |v̄) u⇤ (v̄) for all 2 C1 , then by Lemma A.3 there exists ˜ 2 C0 such that u(˜ |v̄) > u⇤ (v̄) 0. Since u(˜ |v̄) = u(˜ |v) and u⇤ (v̄) u⇤ (v), u(˜ |v) > max{u⇤ (v), 0}. But this contradicts Lemma A.2. Lemma A.7. There exists ⇤ 2 C1 such that u( ⇤ |v) max{u⇤ (v), 0}. Proof. Suppose max{u⇤ (v), 0} > u( |v) for all 2 C1 . By Lemmas A.5 and A.6 there ⇤ exists ˜ 2 C1 such that u(˜ |v̄) > max{u (v̄), 0}. But then max{u⇤ (v), 0} > u(˜ |v), which contradicts Lemma A.2. 43 Lemma A.8. The expected profit of a firm in an equilibrium with product differentiation is strictly positive. Proof. Negative profits cannot be a feature of equilibrium. Thus, suppose they are zero. This implies that every contract of the form h0, pi, 0 < p < z must not be acceptable to either type of consumer. In particular, this implies that 0 < z u⇤ (v). By Lemma A.3, there exists a contract, ⇤ , offered in equilibrium such that u⇤ (v) < u( ⇤ |v). If u⇤ (v̄) < u( ⇤ |v̄), then we would contradict Lemma A.2. Hence u⇤ (v̄) u( ⇤ |v̄). There are now two possibilities. 1. If u⇤ (v̄) = u( ⇤ |v̄), then by Lemma A.3 there exists an alternative contract available in equilibrium, ⇤⇤ , such that u( ⇤⇤ |v̄) > u⇤ (v̄). But in this case a type-v consumer would also benefit from ⇤⇤ . Thus, u( ⇤⇤ |v) > u⇤ (v), contradicting Lemma A.2. 2. If u⇤ (v̄) > u( ⇤ |v̄), then we contradict Lemma A.2 immediately. In either case we arrive at a contradiction. Lemma A.9. For all 2 C0 , u( |v) max{u⇤ (v), 0}. Proof. Suppose there exists 2 C0 such that max{u⇤ (v), 0} > u( |v). Since u( |v̄) = u( |v) < max{u⇤ (v), 0} u⇤ (v̄), is not accepted by any consumers. Therefore, the profits of a firm offering must be zero contradicting Lemma A.8. Lemma A.10. |C0 | 2. Proof. Let = h0, pi and ˆ = h0, p̂i and suppose , ˆ 2 C0 . Without loss of generality, suppose 0 < p < p̂ z. By Lemma A.9, u( |v) > u(ˆ |v) max{u⇤ (v), 0}. Since both contracts must generate the same expected profits, ˆ must not be accepted by all type-v̄ consumers. Thus, u⇤ (v̄) u(ˆ |v̄). Suppose u⇤ (v̄) = u(ˆ |v̄). If in equilibrium a type-v̄ consumer does not accept ˆ with probability 1, then any firm offering ˆ can decrease its price by ✏ > 0, and induce all type-v̄ consumers to accept. This infinitesimal decrease in price leads to a discrete increase in demand and would be a profitable deviation. Therefore, u⇤ (v̄) > u(ˆ |v̄). If u(ˆ |v) > max{u⇤ (v), 0}, then there would be a contradiction with Lemma A.2. Thus, u(ˆ |v) = max{u⇤ (v), 0}. 44 (A.2) Now consider . If u( |v̄) > u⇤ (v̄), then again Lemma A.2 is contradicted. If u( |v̄) < u⇤ (v̄), then it is only accepted by type-v consumers—contradicting the equality of profits between and ˆ . Therefore, u( |v̄) = u⇤ (v̄). (A.3) Therefore, whenever there are at least two distinct contracts in C0 , they must satisfy (A.2) and (A.3). Since these equations must hold for any pair of distinct contracts in C0 , there are at most two elements in C0 . Lemma A.11. For all 2 C1 , u( |v̄) u⇤ (v̄). Proof. We argue by contradiction. Suppose there exists ˆ 2 C1 such that u(ˆ |v̄) < u⇤ (v̄). Without loss of generality we may assume that ˆ is the most expensive contract in C1 . If type-v̄ consumers do not accept ˆ , type-v consumers must find it acceptable, u(ˆ |v) max{u⇤ (v), 0}; else, a firm would earn negative profits. If the preceding inequality is strict, Lemma A.2 would be violated. Hence, u(ˆ |v) = max{u⇤ (v), 0}. Since ˆ was the most expensive contract in C1 , a type-v consumer must accept all contracts in C1 . By Lemma A.9, a type-v consumer also accepts all contracts in C0 . Hence, a type-v consumer does search in equilibrium. Suppose u(ˆ |v) = 0. Then the profits of a firm offering ˆ are at most (1 )(v c) . Noting Assumption A-1, such a firm can strictly increase its profit by offering the contract h0, zi instead since (1 )(v c) (1 )(v c ) (1 )z. Hence, u(ˆ |v) = u⇤ (v) > 0. Next, suppose there exists ˜ 2 C0 such that u(˜ |v̄) > u⇤ (v̄). Since u⇤ (v̄) u⇤ (v), u(˜ |v̄) = u(˜ |v) > u⇤ (v). This, however, contradicts Lemma A.2. Therefore, u( |v̄) u⇤ (v̄) for all 2 C0 . Thus, noting Lemma A.3, we conclude that there exists ˇ 2 C1 such that u(ˇ |v̄) > u⇤ (v̄) u⇤ (v) 0. But this also contradicts Lemma A.2. Lemma A.12. |C1 | 2. Proof. Let = h1, pi and ˆ = h1, p̂i and suppose , ˆ 2 C1 . Without loss of generality, suppose 0 < p < p̂ v̄. Moreover, suppose is the least-expensive contract in C1 . By Lemma A.11, both contracts are accepted by type-v̄ consumers: u( |v̄) > u(ˆ |v̄) max{u⇤ (v̄), 0}. (A.4) If u( |v) < max{u⇤ (v), 0}, Lemma A.2 is violated. Thus, u( |v) max{u⇤ (v), 0}. 45 (A.5) If the inequality in (A.5) was strict, Lemma A.2 would be violated. Thus, u( |v) = max{u⇤ (v), 0} > u(ˆ |v). But then Lemma A.2 implies that u(ˆ |v̄) = max{u⇤ (v̄), 0}. Since ˆ was an arbitrary contract in C1 \ { }, we conclude that there are at most two distinct elements in C1 . A.4 Proof of Theorem 3 Theorem 3 draws on three preliminary results: Lemma 1, which is stated in the main text, Lemma A.13, and Lemma A.14. The proof of Corollary 1 follows the proof of Theorem 3. Proof of Lemma 1. Suppose a typical firm follows the mixed strategy ⇤ where it selects 1 with probability and 0 with probability 1 . By Lemma A.11, 1 must be accepted by a type-v̄ consumer: u( 1 |v̄) max{u⇤ (v̄), 0}. By Lemma A.7, 1 must also be accepted by a type-v consumer: u( 1 |v) max{u⇤ (v), 0}. By Lemma A.9, 0 must be accepted by a type-v consumer: u( 0 |v) max{u⇤ (v), 0}. Suppose u( 1 |v) > max{u⇤ (v), 0}. Then, u( 1 |v̄) = max{u⇤ (v̄), 0}, else Lemma A.2 is violated. Since u( 1 |v̄) > 0, u⇤ (v̄) > 0. By Lemma A.3, u( 0 |v̄) > u⇤ (v̄), which implies u( 0 |v) > max{u⇤ (v), 0}. However, this conclusion contradicts Lemma A.2. Therefore, u( 1 |v) = max{u⇤ (v), 0}. Now there are two cases. 1. Suppose u( 0 |v) > max{u⇤ (v), 0}. Then if u( 0 |v̄) 6= max{u⇤ (v̄), 0}, Lemma A.2 is contradicted. Hence, u( 0 |v̄) = max{u⇤ (v̄), 0} and so u( 1 |v̄) > max{u⇤ (v̄), 0} by Lemma A.3. Therefore, on the equilibrium path no consumers search and the profit of a typical firm is p0 = p1 c . Suppose a firm offered the contract ˜0 = h0, p̃0 i where p̃0 = p1 v + z. Since u(˜0 |v) = z p̃0 = v p1 = u( 1 |v), this is a feasible contract and it is accepted by all type-v consumers. Therefore, it gives the firm profits of at least (1 )p̃0 . However, from Assumption A-1 and the fact that p1 v we conclude that (1 )z > v c =) (1 )z > (1 )v + p1 () (1 )(z () (1 )(p1 + z v) > p1 () (1 )p̃0 > p1 c v) + (1 c )p1 > (1 )p1 + p1 c c Hence, a firm has a profitable deviation in offering ˜ . Hence, u( 0 |v) > max{u⇤ (v), 0} is not compatible with an equilibrium. 46 2. Suppose u( 0 |v) = max{u⇤ (v), 0}. Then u( 1 |v) = u( 0 |v). Hence, u⇤ (v) 0 and 0 = u( 1 |v) = u( 0 |v). But this implies p1 = v and p0 = z, as required. Lemma A.13. Suppose all firms are following the strategy ⇤ where a firm selects 1 with probability and 0 with probability 1 . Suppose all consumers adopt an optimal search strategy holding correct beliefs, ˜ = ⇤ . Suppose u( 0 |v) max{u⇤ (v), 0}, u( 1 |v) max{u⇤ (v), 0}, and u( 1 |v̄) max{u⇤ (v̄), 0} > u( 0 |v̄). Suppose firm j deviates from ⇤ and offers j such that u( j |v̄) max{u⇤ (v̄), 0}. Then the expected number of consumers with indices i < j who accept firm j’s contract is ( 1 1). Proof. Given the contracts available, type-v consumers do not search. Type-v̄ consumers search when they match to 0 . Otherwise, they accept 1 or j should they reach firm j. First, we calculate the probability that exactly q consumers with indices i < j accept firm j’s contract. Let k q. Conditional on all firms j 0 2 {j k, . . . , j 1} offering the contract 0 and firm j k 1 offering the contract 1 , for q consumers with indices i < j to accept the contract offered by firm j, exactly q consumers with indices j k i j 1 must be of type-v̄. In this case, no consumers with indices i j k 1 will search long enough to become acquainted with the contract offer of firm j. Thus, conditional on such a contract offer by firms, the probability that q consumers with indices i < j accept the contract offered by firm j is kq q (1 )k q . For each k, the events described above are disjoint. Thus, the probability that exactly q consumers with indices i < j accept firm j’s contract is 1 X k=q (1 ✓ ◆ k q ) (1 q k )k q = (1 )q q ( + ) 1 q . We can use this probability to compute the expected number of consumers with indices i < j accepting j’s contract offer. This calculation simplifies conveniently: P1 1 )q q ( + ) 1 q] = 1 . q=1 q · [(1 Lemma A.14. There exists a unique In fact, ⇤ = (1 (v)(vc) c z) . ⇤ 2 (0, 1) such that 1 + ⇤ (v c) = (1 )z. Proof. The function f ( ) = 1 + (v c) is continuous on (0, 1] and strictly decreasing. Moreover, lim !0+ f ( ) = 1 and f (1) = v c < (1 )z. Hence, there exists ⇤ ⇤ a unique such that f ( ) = (1 )z. Solving this equation gives ⇤ = (1 (v)(vc) c z) . 47 Proof of Theorem 3. Suppose a typical firm follows the mixed strategy ⇤ where it selects ⇤ ⇤ 1 with probability 1 and 0 with probability 1 1 . When a consumer’s beliefs are that ⇤ ˜ = , his search strategy is defined by the cutoff values u⇤ (v) = s and u⇤ (v̄) = v̄ v s/ ⇤ . 1 ⇤ ⇤ 38 Condition (2) implies u (v̄) = v̄ v s/ 1 0. Hence, a type-v̄ consumer will search for 1 in lieu of accepting 0 or opting out of the market. He will stop his search once he encounters a contract ˜ such that u(˜ |v̄) u⇤ (v). A type-v consumer does not search. We next compute a firm’s expected profits. If firm j offers ˜ , which is acceptable to both types of consumers, the expected total number of consumers who accept firm j’s offer is 1 + ⇤ . Consumer i = j accepts the contract without engaging in search. To this 1 one consumer, we add / ⇤1 (Lemma A.13). This is the expected number of type-v̄ consumers who end up accepting firm ⇣ j’s contract ⌘ offer. In particular, when firm j offers 1 , its expected profits are ⇧j ( 1 ) = 1 + ⇤ (v c) . If firm j offers 0 , its expected 1 profits are ⇧j ( 0 ) = (1 )z. An equilibrium requires ⇧j ( 0 ) = ⇧j ( 1 ). By Lemma A.14, there exists a unique ⇤1 2 (0, 1) ensuring this equality: ⇤1 = (1 (v)(vc) c z) . Thus, both 0 and 1 give a firm the same expected profits. The final step is to verify that no firm can profitably deviate. There are two relevant classes of deviations. A firm may offer good 0 at a price less than z or good 1 at a price more than v. Other deviations are clearly not optimal. 1. Suppose firm j offers ˜ = h0, p̃i, p̃ < z. If p̃ is very close to z, the firm’s expected profits will decline. For ˜ to increase the firm’s profits, it must entice type-v̄ consumers who otherwise would search to stop and to accept it. Thus, z p̃ v̄ v s/ ⇤1 . To maximize its expected profit from this deviation, the firm would set p̃ = z v̄ + v + s/ ⇤1 . Hence, the maximal expected profits associated with this alternative strategy are ⇧j (˜ ) = (1 + / ⇤1 ) (z v̄ + v + s/ ⇤1 ). Rearranging condition (2) we conclude that ⇧j ( 1 ) ⇧j (˜ ). Hence, firm j cannot increase its profits through this deviation. 2. Suppose firm j offers ˜ = h1, p̃i where p̃ > v. In this case, no type-v consumers will accept the contract. A type-v̄ consumer will accept ˜ if and only if v̄ p̃ v̄ v s/ ⇤1 . The maximum price which ⇣will be accepted is p̃ = v + s/ ⇣⇤1 . When p̃⌘= v + s/ ⇤1 , the ⌘ expected profit is ⇧j (˜ ) = + ⇤ (p̃ c) = ⇤ v c + s⇤ . However, 1 1 1 s ⇧j (˜ ) ⇧j ( 1 ) = ( ⇤ )2 (1 )(v c) 0. Where the inequality follows from condition 1 (3). 38 To confirm this fact, it is sufficient to verify that z c contrary and substitute for ⇤1 we observe that v > z + c + (v a contradiction. 48 /(1 + / ⇤1 ) v. If we suppose the c)/( + z(1 )) > z + c + v c, which is Proof of Corollary 1. From Theorem 3 it follows that if ⇤ is the equilibrium strategy of a firm when the search costs are s̄, ⇤ continues to be an equilibrium if search costs are s 2 (0, s̄). The expected profit of a typical firm in the equilibrium of Theorem 3 is (1 )z. All type-v consumers expect a payoff of zero. Type-v̄ consumers earn an expected payoff of ⇤ ⇤ v) + (1 v s/ ⇤1 ). Hence, total expected surplus for a firm-consumer pair 1 (v̄ 1 )(v̄ ⇤ is (1 )z + ( ⇤1 (v̄ v) + (1 v s/ ⇤1 )). This expression must exceed z. Taking 1 )(v̄ the limit s ! 0+ , we see that such an outcome is possible if and only if v̄ v z. A.5 Multiple Goods Trading at Multiple Prices Proof of Lemma 2. The result follows from Lemmas A.5–A.12 in the proof of Theorem 2. 1. It is sufficient to establish that u( 0 |v) > u(ˆ0 |v) = max{u⇤ (v), 0} and u( 0 |v̄) = u⇤ (v̄). By Lemma A.9, 0 and ˆ0 must be acceptable to a type-v consumer. Thus, u( 0 |v) > u(ˆ0 |v) = max{u⇤ (v), 0}. The equality is due to (A.2) in the proof of Lemma A.10. From (A.3) we have u( 0 |v̄) = u⇤ (v̄) as needed. 2. It is sufficient to establish that u( 1 |v) = max{u⇤ (v), 0} and u( 1 |v̄) > u⇤ (v̄) = u(ˆ1 |v̄). By Lemma A.11, 1 and ˆ1 must be acceptable to a type-v̄ consumer. Thus, u( 1 |v̄) > u(ˆ1 |v̄) = u⇤ (v̄) where the equality follows from the proof of Lemma A.12. Also from the proof of Lemma A.12 we have u( 1 |v) = max{u⇤ (v), 0}. Proof of Lemma 3. By Theorem 2, only four classes of equilibria may exist in our economy. We analyzed the case of product differentiation and no price dispersion in section 4.1. In that case we showed that a typical firm’s profits are (1 )z. Therefore, if a Pareto improvement is to occur at least one good must trade at multiple prices. 1. Suppose there is an equilibrium where firms offer only 0 , 1 , and ˆ0 with positive probability. That is, only good 0 trades at multiple prices. From Lemma 2 we know that u( 0 |v) > u(ˆ0 |v) = max{u⇤ (v), 0} and u( 0 |v̄) = u⇤ (v̄) > u(ˆ0 |v̄). Hence ˆ0 is acceptable only to type-v consumers and is not accepted by type-v̄ consumers. Moreover, type-v consumers always accept 0 . 49 Suppose that type-v consumers always accept 1 . Then the expected profit of a firm offering ˆ0 is at most (1 )z, which is not reflective of a Pareto improvement. Therefore, a type-v consumer must search with positive probability if his only available contract is 1 . That is, u( 1 |v) u⇤ (v). There are two relevant sub cases: (a) Suppose u( 1 |v) < u⇤ (v). Therefore, only type-v̄ consumers accept 1 . If u( 1 |v̄) = v̄ p1 > max{u⇤ (v̄), 0}, then a typical firm offering 1 could slightly increase its price without affecting its demand. Therefore, in equilibrium the price of good 1 must satisfy v̄ p1 = max{u⇤ (v̄), 0}. But this leads to a contradiction. Specifically, if v̄ p1 = u( 1 |v̄) = u⇤ (v̄) 0, then using Lemmas A.1 and 2 we see that u⇤ (v̄) = 0 u⇤ (v̄) + ˆ 0 u⇤ (v̄) + 1 max{u⇤ (v̄), 0} s, which is impossible. On the other hand, if u⇤ (v̄) < 0 then the profits generated by the contract 1 are at most (v̄ c) , which is less than z by Assumption A-1. Hence, this outcome cannot lead to a Pareto improvement. (b) Suppose u( 1 |v) = u⇤ (v). In this case, a type-v consumer is indifferent between searching for an alternative offer and accepting 1 . Any firm offering 1 can slightly decrease its price (which is strictly positive) and discretely increase its expected profits by encouraging type-v consumers to accept its offer rather than search. Hence, this case is not compatible with an equilibrium. 2. Suppose there is an equilibrium where firms offer only 0 , 1 , and ˆ1 with positive probability. That is, only good 1 trades at multiple prices. From Lemma 2 we know that u( 1 |v) = max{u⇤ (v), 0} > u(ˆ1 |v) and u( 1 |v̄) > u(ˆ1 |v̄) = u⇤ (v̄). Therefore, ˆ1 is only acceptable to type-v̄ consumers. If all type-v̄ consumers accept 0 , then the expected profits of a typical firm offering ˆ1 are at most (v̄ c) , which is less than z by Assumption A-1. Hence, some type-v̄ consumers must search if 0 is their only available contract. That is, u( 0 |v̄) u⇤ (v̄). There are two sub cases to consider. (a) If u( 0 |v̄) < u⇤ (v̄), then no type-v̄ consumers accept 0 . For 0 to generate an expected profit greater than z, u( 0 |v) > max{u⇤ (v), 0}, so as to entice some type-v consumers to search. (The strict inequality is necessary.) However, this implies that any firm offering 0 can strictly increase its price slightly without affecting its demand, contradicting the equilibrium condition. (b) If u( 0 |v̄) = u⇤ (v̄), then any firm offering 0 can strictly increase its profit by reducing p0 slightly thereby encouraging type-v̄ consumers to accept 0 in lieu of searching for a good 1 contract. This contradicts the equilibrium condition. 50 Hence, three of the four possible classes of equilibria are not compatible with a Paretoimproving outcome. Therefore, if there is an equilibrium with the desired characteristics, it must involve two goods trading at multiple prices. Second, the requisite pattern of consumer search follows from Lemma 2. First, u⇤ (v̄) > 0 since u⇤ (v̄) = u( 0 |v̄) = z p0 > z p̂0 = u(ˆ |v) = max{u⇤ (v̄), 0} 0. Second, if u⇤ (v) < 0, then ˆ0 is acceptable only to a type-v consumer. But this implies that ⇧(ˆ0 )) = (1 )z. Thus, firms’ equilibrium profits fall below the benchmark case. Remark A.1. In any equilibrium where a consumer is indifferent between accepting a contract and continued search, he must accept the contract. Else, a firm offering the contract in question can lower the price slightly prompting a discrete increase in expected profits. Proof of Lemma 4. Since u⇤ (v̄) u⇤ (v) 0, Lemma 2 implies that z and v̄ p1 > v̄ p̂1 = u⇤ (v̄). We can write (A.1) as p0 = u⇤ (v̄) > z p0 ) + ˆ 0 max{z p̂0 , 0, u⇤ (v̄)} + 1 (v̄ p1 ) + ˆ 1 (v̄ = 0 u⇤ (v̄) + ˆ 0 u⇤ (v̄) + 1 (v̄ p1 ) + ˆ 1 u⇤ (v̄) s u⇤ (v̄) = 0 (z = (1 1 )u () u⇤ (v̄) = v̄ p1 ⇤ (v̄) + s/ 1 (v̄ p1 ) p̂1 ) p̂0 s s 1 The argument for u⇤ (v) is analogous. To derive the relationships among prices we use equalities from Lemma 2 and the immediately preceding computations. u(ˆ0 |v) = u⇤ (v) =) z ⇤ p̂0 = z p0 s =) p̂0 = p0 + 0 u( 1 |v) = u (v) =) v p1 = z u( 0 |v̄) = u⇤ (v̄) =) z p0 = v̄ u(ˆ1 |v̄) = u⇤ (v̄) =) v̄ p̂1 = v̄ p0 s 0 =) p1 = p0 + 0 p1 s s 1 s +v z +z v̄ 0 =) p0 = p1 + 1 p1 s s 1 =) p̂1 = p1 + s 1 Proof of Lemma 5. From Section 4.2, we can easily describe consumer search behavior. A type-v consumer searches for an alternative offer if ˆ1 is the only contract that is available. He accepts 0 , ˆ0 , and 1 . A type-v̄ consumer searches for an alternative offer if ˆ0 is the only contract that is available. He accepts 0 , 1 , and ˆ1 . 51 1. The contract 0 = h0, p0 i is acceptable to both types of consumers. We must compute the expected number of consumers with indices i < j who accept firm j’s offer. Suppose for the moment that at least one type-v̄ consumer with an index i < j accepts 1 must be offering the contract ˆ0 = h0, p̂0 i. 0 from firm j. This implies that firm j But then no type-v consumers with indices i < j will accept firm j’s offer. Any type-v consumer who is searching would accept ˆ0 from firm j 1 before learning the offer of firm j. Likewise, if at least one type-v consumer with an index i < j accepts 0 from firm j, then no type-v̄ consumers with indices i < j will accept the offer from firm j. Thus, firm j sells its product to either q consumers of type-v̄ who are searching or to q 0 consumers of type-v who are searching. Never does it sell its product to a mixed group of buyers with indices i < j. Following the reasoning in the proof of Lemma A.13, the probability that exactly q P ˆk ˆ 0 ) k q (1 type-v̄ consumers who are searching accept firm j’s offer is 1 k=q 0 (1 q (1 ˆ 0 ) ˆ q0 q . (1 ˆ 0 (1 ))q+1 Similarly, the probability that exactly q type-v consumers who P (1 ˆ ) ˆ q (1 )q ˆk ˆ 1 ) k (1 are searching accept firm j’s offer is 1 )q k q = (1 1 ˆ 1 )q+1 . k=q 1 (1 q 1 We can compute the expected number of consumers with indices i < j who accept firm j’s offer of 0 to be )k q = 1 X q=1 " (1 ˆ0)ˆq 0 ˆ 0 (1 (1 q + ))q+1 (1 ˆ 1 ) ˆ q (1 1 (1 )q ˆ 1 )q+1 # q= ˆ0 1 ˆ0 + (1 1 )ˆ1 . ˆ1 Hence, accounting for consumer i⌘= j who ⇣ ⇣ also accepts ⌘ 0 , the expected profit of firm ˆ0 (1 ) ˆ 1 j is ⇧j ( 0 ) = 1 + 1 ˆ + 1 ˆ p0 = 1 ˆ + 11 ˆ p0 . 0 1 0 1 2. The reasoning is identical to the preceding case. 3. The contract ˆ0 = h0, p̂0 i is accepted only by type-v consumers. Therefore, noting the the expected number of type-v consumers who accept h0, p̂0 i is h above calculations, i (1 ) ˆ 1 1 (1 )+ 1 ˆ = 1 ˆ . Hence, the expected profit is ⇧j (ˆ0 ) = 11 ˆ p̂0 . 1 1 1 4. The reasoning is identical to the preceding case. Lemma A.15. There exists an equilibrium where both goods trade at multiple prices and consumer search conforms to the pattern described in Lemma 3 if and only if there exists 52 strictly positive constants— 0 , 1, ˆ 0 , ˆ 1 —such that v̄ s v= + s 0 (A.6) 1 (A.7) ⇧j ( 0 ) = ⇧j ( 1 ) s p1 = p0 + +v (A.8) z 0 z 1= s p0 0 + 1 + ˆ0 + ˆ1 (A.9) (A.10) 0 0 where p0 = 1 1 ˆ0 1 · ˆ1 · s and p1 = c + 0 1 ˆ1 1 ˆ0 1 · · s . (A.11) 1 Proof. Conditions (A.6)–(A.10) reproduce the conditions identified in Section 4.2. Thus, necessity follows from the discussion in that section. To prove sufficiency we reverse the argument. Let 0 , 1 , ˆ 0 , and ˆ 1 be the strictly positive values that satisfy the conditions (A.6)–(A.10). We use these values to define four contracts, two for each good, as follows: • Let 0 = h0, p0 i be a contract supplying good 0 at a price of p0 = ˆ0 1 · ˆ1 1 1 · s (A.12) . 0 • Let ˆ0 = h0, p̂0 i be a contract supplying good 0 at a price of p̂0 = p0 + s/ 0 , where p0 is given by (A.12). • Let 1 = h1, p1 i be a contract supplying good 1 at a price of p1 = c + 1 ˆ1 1 ˆ0 1 · · s . (A.13) 1 • Let ˆ1 = h1, p̂1 i be a contract supplying good 1 at a price of p̂1 = p1 + s/ 1 , where p1 is given by (A.13). Suppose each firm adopts the strategy j⇤ where contract k (ˆk ) is offered with probability ˆ ˆ ˆ k ( k ). Since 1 = 0 + 1 + 0 + 1 , all prices defined above are strictly positive and the strategy is a valid mixed strategy. To verify the equilibrium, we first characterize consumers’ search behavior given j⇤ . Subsequently we compute the expected profits associated with each 53 contract given the consumers’ search strategy. Finally, we verify that no firm has a profitable deviation from the mixed strategy j⇤ . The Optimal Search Strategy for a Type-v Consumer. Given the contracts defined above, u( 0 |v) = z u( 1 |v) = v u(ˆ0 |v) = z u(ˆ1 |v) = v p0 p1 p̂0 = z p̂1 = v p0 p1 s/ 0 s/ 1 . (A.10) implies that u( 0 |v) > u(ˆ0 |v) 0. Moreover, by (A.8), u( 1 |v) = v p1 = v p0 s/ 0 v +z = z p0 s/ 0 = u(ˆ0 |v). Therefore, u( 0 |v) > u( 1 |v) = u(ˆ0 |v) > u(ˆ1 |v). If a type-v consumer believes that all firms are following the mixed strategy j⇤ , his optimal search strategy will be characterized by a constant cutoff value, u⇤ (v). From Lemma A.1, u⇤ (v) solves u⇤ (v) = E j⇤ [max{u⇤ (v), u( |v), 0}] s. (A.14) There are two possible cases: 1. Suppose that the value u⇤ (v) that solves (A.14) is such that u( 0 |v) u⇤ (v) ⇤ u( 1 |v) = u(ˆ0 |v) > u(ˆ1 |v). Then, u⇤ (v) = 0 (z p0 ) + (1 s () 0 )u (v) ⇤ u (v) = z p0 s/ 0 . 2. Suppose that the value u⇤ (v) that solves (A.14) is such that u( 0 |v) > u( 1 |v) = u(ˆ0 |v) > u⇤ (v) · · · . Then, ⇤ u (v) = p0 ) + ( ˆ 0 + 0 (z 1) ✓ z p0 0 + ˆ 1 max{u(ˆ1 |v), u (v), 0} ⇤ ˆ 1 )(z =) u⇤ (v) = (1 (ˆ0 + p0 ) s 1) ◆ s s + ˆ 1 u⇤ (v) s 0 =) u⇤ (v) = z By assumption, however, z ˆ0 + 1 But since 1 1 ˆ1 s 0 0 + s 1 ˆ1 1 ˆ0 p0 p0 > s 0 ˆ0 + ˆ1 1 s/ () 1 0 s 0 s 1 ˆ1 > u⇤ (v). Therefore, 0 (1 ˆ 1 )(1 0 1 ˆ0 ˆ 1 )s < 0. ˆ 1 = 0, this final condition is a contradiction. Since case 2 cannot apply, we conclude that under the assumed values for the ’s, u⇤ (v) = 54 z p0 s/ 0 and u⇤ (v) > u(ˆ1 |v). Thus, when a type-v consumer believes all firms adopt the strategy j⇤ , he finds acceptable the contracts 0 , ˆ0 , and 1 . If ˆ1 is the only contract available, the consumer will search in lieu of accepting ˆ1 or exiting the market. The Optimal Search Strategy for a Type-v̄ Consumer. Given the set of contracts defined above, we can compute a type-v̄ consumer’s expected utility: u( 0 |v̄) = z u( 1 |v̄) = v̄ p0 p1 u(ˆ0 |v̄) = z u(ˆ1 |v̄) = v̄ p̂0 = z p̂1 = v̄ p0 p1 s/ s/ 0 1 Again, u( 0 |v) > u(ˆ0 |v) 0 and substituting the expression from above yields u(ˆ1 |v̄) = v̄ p1 s/ 1 = v̄ p0 s/ 0 v + z s/ 1 = z p0 . Hence, u( 1 |v̄) > u(ˆ1 |v̄) = u( 0 |v̄) > u(ˆ0 |v̄). An argument analogous to the previous case establishes that under the proposed conditions, the cutoff value charactering the search strategy of a type-v̄ consumer is u⇤ (v̄) = v̄ p1 s/ 1 = z p0 . Thus, when a type-v̄ consumer believes all firms adopt the strategy j⇤ , he finds acceptable the contracts 0 , 1 , and ˆ1 . If ˆ0 is the only contract available, the consumer will happily search in lieu of accepting ˆ0 or exiting the market. Expected Firm Profits. Noting the consumers’ search behavior we can compute the expected profits associated with each of the offered contracts. These are given by Lemma 5 above. It is straightforward to confirm that given the definition of prices and (A.7), ⇧j ( 0 ) = ⇧j (ˆ0 ) = ⇧j ( 1 ) = ⇧j (ˆ1 ). Therefore, each contract in the support of j⇤ yields the same (strictly-positive) expected profit conditional on the consumers’ search strategy. No Firm has a Profitable Deviation. It remains to verify that no alternative contract can yield a greater expected profit to a typical firm given agents’ search behavior and the strategy adopted by the other firms. Verification of this fact relies on the inequalities and equalities summarized by the following conditions: u( 0 |v) > u( 1 |v) = u(ˆ0 |v) = u⇤ (v) max{u(ˆ1 |v), 0}, and u( 1 |v̄) > u(ˆ1 |v̄) = u( 0 |v̄) = u⇤ (v̄) > u(ˆ0 |v̄). (A.15) (A.16) (A.15) and (A.16) were derived above in relation to each type of consumers’ search strategy. Suppose firm j posts the contract ˜ = h0, p̃i. Clearly, if p̃ p0 , the firm cannot improve its expected profits. The lower price fails to attract more consumers than p0 and leads to strictly lower profits. If p̂0 < p̃, then u⇤ (v̄) u⇤ (v) = z p̂0 > z p̃. Thus, the more expensive contract would not be accepted by any consumers. Finally if p0 < p̃ < p̂0 , then z p̃ < u⇤ (v̄). Hence, the contract would only be acceptable to type-v̄ consumers. However, 55 ˆ0 was also acceptable to such consumers and it had a higher price. Hence, firm j could do better by offering ˆ0 instead. Suppose a firm posts ˜ = h1, p̃i. If p̃ < p1 , the firm can strictly improve its expected profit by charging a slightly higher price since the contract would be accepted by all consumers. Likewise if p̃ > p̂1 , the contract is not acceptable to any consumers—even type-v̄ consumers will search in this case. If p1 < p̃ < p̂1 , the contract is acceptable only to type-v consumers. But ˆ1 would yield a greater profit as it would be accepted by the same number of consumers but charge them a higher price. Thus, no firm can deviate profitably from ⇤ . A.6 Increasing Search Costs In this section we elaborate on our proposed model extension with increasing search costs. Suppose that the cost to learn the contract offer of the t-th additional firm is st where 0 < s1 s2 · · · . The sequence of search costs is common knowledge and limt!1 st > v̄. Pt If the consumer searches for t periods in total, his payoff will be u( i+t |vi ) k=1 sk if he Pt accepts i+t and k=1 sk otherwise. Let 0 = h0, zi and 1 = h1, vi. Suppose firms follow a strategy ( ⇤ ) where 1 is offered ⇤ with probability ⇤1 2 (0, 1) and 0 is offered with probability 1 1 . A type-v̄ consumer will search for 1 , but only for a finite number of periods. If he searches for t⇤ periods at most, t⇤ must satisfy t⇤ = max{t : ⇤ 1 u( 1 |v̄) ⇤ 1 )u( 0 |v̄) + (1 st u( 0 |v̄)}. (A.17) The expected payoff from taking the final sample must exceed the payoff of accepting the available contract. We can characterize this consumer’s search strategy by a decreasing sequence of cutoff values. As search costs rise over time, the consumer becomes less choosy. In period t consumer i will accept i+t if u( i+t |v̄) u⇤t (v̄) where u⇤t (v̄) = 1 (1 ⇤ 1) t⇤ t ⇤ t 1 ) u( 0 |v̄) u( 1 |v̄) + (1 t⇤X t 1 st ⇤ k (1 ⇤ t⇤ t 1 k . 1) k=0 These cutoff values can be computed via backward induction starting at t⇤ . The preceding discussion has taken ⇤1 as given. However, it is determined endogenously through the equilibration of firms’ profits. Given consumers’ search strategy, the expected ⇤ t⇤ ⇤ t⇤ profit of a firm offering 0 is ⇧j ( 0 ) = 1 + (1 z. The term (1 1) 1 ) accounts for the small, but positive, probability that a type-v̄ consumer accepts 0 after a t⇤ -period 56 unsuccessful search for 1. ⇧j ( 1 ) = Similarly, ✓ 1+ ✓ ◆ 1 1 (1 ⇤ 1 ⇤ t⇤ 1) ) (1 ◆ (v c) . In equilibrium, t⇤ 2 N and ⇤1 2 (0, 1) are such that (i) t⇤ satisfies condition (A.17), and (ii) ⇧j ( 0 ) = ⇧j ( 1 ). Additionally, firms must not have an incentive to deviate from ⇤ . Hence a collection of additional constraints, analogous to those in Theorem 3 but now accounting for the consumers’ new search strategy, must be satisfied.39 The following lemma identifies sufficient conditions ensuring that t⇤ and ⇤1 exist in the defined environment. Lemma A.16. Suppose search costs are non-decreasing. Define the functions 8 <max{t : (v̄ v) s 0} if {t : (v̄ t ⇢( ) = :0 otherwise ⇣ ⌘ v+z) log 1 1 ( (c+ 1)(c v)+ z ⌧( ) = log(1 ) v) st 0} = 6 ; (A.18) (A.19) Let ¯ = (1 (v)(vc) c z) and suppose there exists ˆ 2 (0, ¯ ) such that ⇢( ˆ ) > ⌧ ( ˆ ). Then there exists t⇤ 2 N and ⇤1 2 (0, 1) such that ⇤ 1. t⇤ = max{t : ⇤1 u( 1 |v̄) + (1 1 )u( 0 |v̄) ⇣ ⇣ ⌘ ⌘ 1 ⇤ t⇤ 2. 1 + 1 (1 (1 c) ⇤ 1 ) ) (v st u( 0 |v̄)}; and, = 1 1 + (1 ⇤ t⇤ 1) z. Proof. When 0 = h0, zi and 1 = h1, vi, u( 1 |v̄) = v̄ v and u( 0 |v̄) = 0. Now, ⇢( ) is a non-decreasing step function taking on integer values. It is the blue curve is Figure A.1. The function ⌧ ( ) is defined as the value of ⌧ that solves ✓ 1+ ✓ 1 ◆ 1 (1 (1 ⌧ ◆ ) ) (v c) = (1 + (1 )⌧ ) z (A.20) When a solution exists, it is given by (A.19). ⌧ ( ) is strictly increasing and continuous. v+ +c Also, lim !0+ ⌧ ( ) = z (v and ⌧ ( ) asymptotes to infinity as ! ¯ = (1 (v)(vc) c z) . c) ⌧ ( ) is the red curve in Figure A.1. If ⇢( ˆ ) > ⌧ ( ˆ ) there will exist some ⇤1 2 ( ˆ , ¯ ) where t⇤ = ⌧ ( ⇤1 ) and ( ⇤1 , t⇤ ) satisfies the lemma’s conditions. 39 As in the case of the other extensions we analyze, we omit analyzing these conditions for brevity. 57 t ⌧( ) ⇢( ) t⇤ 0 ⇤ 1 ¯ 1 Figure A.1: An illustration of the situation in Lemma A.16. 58
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