Forum: General Assembly First Committee
Issue: Ensuring the
Sovereignty of the
Baltic Region
Student Officer: Jack McCorkell
Position: Head Chair
Introduction
•
The Baltic Region has become one of the most economically successful regions in Europe over the past decade, growing their
economies by over 10% as opposed to 2-3% like the other nations in Europe. They also would provide direct access to the rest of
Europe for Russia if taken over.
•
Russia has already taken control of Crimea through a violent takeover, absorbing the region because of its geographical access to the
Baltic Sea and the rest of Europe.
•
The Baltic States of Estonia, Lithuania and Latvia were formerly part of the Soviet Union, taken during World War II, but were given
away by the Soviet Government after the collapse of the Union.
•
The Russian military has begun to increase their movements near the airspace and waters of the Baltic Region. These activities have
become more and more aggressive, with incidents such as the kidnapping of an Estonian border agent in 2014, and the detention of
a Lithuanian vessel by the Russian Coast Guard.
•
If Russia was to go to war with the Baltic States, they could not defend themselves alone, with a military less than 1% the size of
Russia’s. However, the Baltic States are part of NATO, which makes up a majority of European Nations. A Russian Declaration of War
could spark the beginnings of a Third World War.
Figure 1: The location of the Baltic
States within Europe. (Green)
Key Terms Defined
• Baltic States: The Nations of Estonia, Lithuania and Latvia, that were
part of the Soviet Union until its collapse in 1991.
• NATO: The North Atlantic Treaty Organisation, which is a military
alliance between 28 states, mostly in Europe and North America.
The Baltic States are a part of this alliance.
• Sovereignty: The authority of a Nation to rule and govern itself.
• Nordic Countries: The region in Northern Europe and the North
Atlantic, consisting of Norway, Finland, Sweden, Denmark and
Iceland. They are invested in assisting the Baltic Nations retain their
sovereignty.
• Mutual Defence Agreement: An agreement between several nations
to assist in international conflicts should one of the nations be
attacked. NATO is one example of a Mutual Defence Agreement.
History
• The Baltic States were formerly independent states, until they were
occupied by the Soviets in World War II. Their governments were
replaced with pro-soviet governments, and soon applied to be
absorbed into the Union. These nations were then informally
known as the “Baltic Republics”.
• The Baltic Nations were finally released from the hold of the
weakening Soviet Union in 1990 and 1991, after various protests
began occurring throughout the region, including the spectacular
“Baltic Way” protest, in which 2 million people joined hands,
forming a chain over 670 km long to protest and publicize the illegal
Soviet Occupation.
• The Baltic States have since become the most economically
successful region in Europe, growing their standard of living and
economies much faster than any other nation in the area. This, as
well as their access to the rest of Europe, has made them highly
sought after by Russia.
Figure 2: Part of the
human chain of the
Baltic Way in
Lithuania, 1989.
History
• The annexation of Crimea by Russia in 2014 has lead to concerns over
the sovereignty of the Baltic States. These three countries are seen as
Russia’s next target.
• In 2014 and 2015, there have been at least 11 serious incidents reported
between Russia and the Baltics that can be interpreted as acts of
Russian Aggression. A report titled “Dangerous Brinkmanship: Close
Military Encounters between Russian and the West in 2014” suggests
that these actions are reaching Cold War levels. One such action was the
detention and subsequent towing of a Lithuanian shipping vessel to
Murmansk, as a clear act of provocation and intimidation towards the
Baltic States. Tensions between Russia and the Baltics are growing daily.
• On the 30th of June 2015, the Russian Prosecutor-General’s office
announced that it would be reviewing the decision by the Soviet Union's
State Council to give up the Baltic States in the dying years of the Soviet
Union. Although they attempted to ease concern by stating that it had
no legal consequence, it is obvious that the Baltic Governments are
outraged by this decision.
Economic Growth
Figure 3: The economies and standard of living of the Baltic States
have grown much faster than their neighbouring nations.
Key Issues
• The Domino Effect: A main concern of many nations in the European Union and
NATO is that after Russia’s annexation of Crimea in Ukraine, should the Baltic
Region be conquered as well, the rest of Europe may be at the mercy of the
Russian Military.
• Moral Issues: Spokespeople for the Baltic States and their governments have
stated that the issue of Russia’s relationship with the region is not just a political
one, it is also a moral one. If the Baltics were to be absorbed, millions of people
would lose their home nation, and the ideals that Estonians, Latvians and
Lithuanians died for in the 1990s rebellions would be worthless.
• Russians outside of Russia: There are many millions of Russian citizens living
outside of Russian territory due to the collapse of the Soviet Union in the 1990s
and the loss of some of its entities. Although this is largely a front for Russia’s
provocation of the Baltic States, it is an issue that must be addressed.
• Russian Gas: The Baltic States receive all of their Natural Gas from Russia. In
2013, the Baltic States were among only 4 nations that received the entirety of
their Natural Gas from Russia. The Baltic States should trade with other nations
to reduce reliance on Russia for their energy supply.
Figure 4: In 2014, the Latvian Population was over 25% Russian. This trend
is very similar in Estonia and Lithuania.
Key Issues
• War: Both Russia and NATO, the two sides of this hypothetical
war, have an extremely large military, as well as a stockpile of
nuclear weapons. Russia’s military consists of almost a million
personnel, with over 20 million reserved for duty. NATO, on
the other hand, has the power of 28 member states behind it,
including the United States, which gives it over 70% of
worldwide military spending at its fingertips. If these two
groups were to go to war, it is quite possible that a third World
War may break out.
Figure 5: Russian military
spending has risen over the past
few years.
General Overview/
UN Perspective
• The United Nations dealt with the similar incident regarding Crimea in March of 2014,
and condemned Russia for their actions. They did not recognise the Crimean region as
part of Russia by passing the resolution 68/262 in 2014, which highlighted the invalidity
of the Crimean Referendum. This resolution was supported by 100 member states,
suggesting that the majority of nations finds this type of situation unjust.
• The United Nations passed a resolution in 1993 (A/RES/48/18) that called for the
complete withdrawal of foreign troops from the Baltic States. These requirements
should still stand, and also suggest that the United Nations generally does not support
the occupation of other nations under any circumstances.
• The United Nations’ main goal is to prevent war. This means that if the Baltic States
were to be attacked, the United Nations would have to intervene to try to find a
solution. This is particularly important as a war with the Baltic States could escalate to a
World War III.
• Russia submitted a draft resolution in the General Assembly Third Committee that
aimed to prevent the glorification of Nazi War Crimes (Document A/C.3/69/L.56/Rev.1).
However, the resolution also had the effect of downplaying the history of Baltic-Soviet
relations, and may justify Russian aggression.
Major Parties Involved and
Their Views
• The Baltic States of Lithuania, Estonia and Latvia have had the best economic
success in Europe over the past decade. Their geographical location and this
economic prosperity has led to an increased interest by Russia, with actions by
the nation hinting at a possible attack in the coming years. The Baltic States are
outraged by the actions of Russia, and have called for NATO protection.
• NATO feels that the Baltic States, although much smaller, both in size and
economy, than some of the other NATO nations, deserve the same amount of
support and respect as the others. They have expressed support for the Baltic
States, and have stated that they will fully militarily support the States should a
war arise.
• Russia has stated that after the disbanding of the Soviet Union, many millions of
Russian citizens were trapped outside of its borders. They have expressed
concern at the possible discrimination of former Russian citizens, and Vladimir
Putin stated that he would “stand up for the millions of Russians on historic
Russian Lands”. This implies that Putin has set his sights on the Baltic Region,
which has the highest percentage of Russians out of all former soviet nations.
Russia has already taken the Crimean region by force, and it is thought that the
Baltic Region will be the next target.
Figure 6: The nations that are a
part of NATO.
Figure 7: A comparison of NATO’s
Military Power and Russia’s.
Percentage of Global Military
Expenditure
5%
Russia
25%
NATO
70%
Rest of the
World
Timeline of Events
Date
Event
WWII
The Soviet Union takes control of the Baltic States.
1990-91
The Soviet Union releases the Baltic States and give them
independence.
1991-2007
The Baltic States have become the region’s most economically
successful nations.
2008
After the Global Financial Crisis, the Baltic States are the fastest
to recover in Europe.
2014, March
Russia take over Crimea by force. The UN condemns Russia for
their actions.
2014-15
Russia has at least 11 provocative incidents with the Baltic
States that seem to be intimidation tactics.
July 2015
Russian Prosecutor-General conducts a formal investigation on
the legitimacy of the Baltic States’ independence. Baltic States
and NATO outraged.
UN Involvement, Resolutions,
Treaties and Events
• The United Nations passed resolution A/RES/68/262 , which
responds to the Russian Annexation of Crimea. The document was
titled “the Territorial Integrity of Ukraine”, and was supported by
100 member states. The resolution sought to highlight the invalidity
of the Crimean Referendum and to recognise Crimea as territorial
property of Ukraine. This resolution may be applied to the Baltic
Issue.
• United Nations Resolution A/RES/48/18 concerning the withdrawal
of foreign military forces should be considered. The resolution was
created in 1993 to aim to remove Russian troops stationed in the
Baltic States.
• There have been no other recent resolutions regarding the Baltic
States, although many member states have raised concerns
regarding Russia’s aggressive behaviour towards the Baltic Region.
Evaluation of Previous
Attempts to Solve Issue
• The United Nations has never been fully involved in the Baltic Issue
between the Baltic States and Russia, although many member
states, including the NATO Nations have raised concerns regarding
the ethical and moral behaviours of Russia. To work towards a
solution, the United Nations must be fully focused to coming up
with a compromise for Russia.
• The Baltic States have done well to gain the support of NATO against
Russia on this issue, but probably require more threatening legal
consequences to prevent Russia from invading.
• The Crimean incident was handled well by the United Nations, but
although a resolution was passed, Crimea is still very much in the
hands of Russia. If it is this difficult for the UN to come up with a
solution, the Baltic States may be hard pressed to work with the
United Nations towards a solution.
Possible Solutions
• Russia’s main issue with the Baltic Region is their treatment of former
Russian Citizens, and the supposed discrimination against them in the
Baltic States, particularly Estonia. To combat this, a solution must be
found that allows equality in the Baltic Region for Russians. This may
include the implementation of laws and systems in the Baltic States that
combats racism and discrimination.
• The example of Crimea should be taken into account. In Crimea, there
were riots and thousands of injuries and deaths. The same must not
occur in the Baltic Region, so Russia must be prevented from invading.
International Trade embargos and sanctions may force Russia into
withdrawing their war motives.
• NATO must attempt to resolve matters with Russia before
contemplating a possible attack. NATO’s military power is large enough
that it could have a devastating impact in war, so it should only be used
as a last resort. Peace discussions between Russia and the Baltics must
occur to clear the air and allow both sides to share their views, to
prevent a possible war.
Possible Solutions
• An issue with the Baltic crisis is that many of the Russians
living in the region are not granted citizenship. This means
that the Russians living in the area are still Russian citizens,
which gives Russia an incentive to “protect” their people – by
invading and taking over the Baltic States. Perhaps a solution
to this issue would be to allow Russians living in the Baltic
States to have citizenship, which would take them out of the
protective grasp of Russia.
• Essentially, any solution to this issue must take into account
the interests of all parties involved, and must work towards
maintaining the sovereignty of the Baltic Region.
Works Cited
•
"A/RES/48/18. Baltic States." UN News Center. UN, 15 Nov. 1993. Web. 16 Aug. 2015.
<http://www.un.org/documents/ga/res/48/a48r018.htm>.
•
Dale, Helle. "Putin Sets His Sights on the Baltic States." Newsweek. Newsweek LLC, 14 July 2015. Web. 14 Aug. 2015.
<http://www.newsweek.com/putin-sets-his-sights-baltic-states-353682 >.
•
Frear, Thomas, Łukasz Kulesa, and Ian Kearns. "Dangerous Brinkmanship: Close Military Encounters Between Russia and the West
in 2014." Encyclopaedia of United States National Security (2005): n. pag. Nov. 2014. Web. 14 Aug. 2015.
•
"Lithuania to Vote against Russia-proposed UN Resolution." DELFI. The Lithuania Tribune, 14 Nov. 2014. Web. 16 Aug. 2015.
<http://en.delfi.lt/lithuania/foreign-affairs/lithuania-to-vote-against-russia-proposed-un-resolution.d?id=66399038> .
•
"Russia Criticizes U.N. Resolution Condemning Crimea's Secession." Reuters. Thomson Reuters, 28 Mar. 2014. Web. 14 Aug. 2015.
< http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/03/28/us-ukraine-crisis-un-russia-idUSBREA2R0DA20140328 >.
•
"Russia to Review 1991 Decision to Recognise Independence of Baltic States." Ukraine Today. Ukraine Today, 30 June 2015. Web.
16 Aug. 2015. < http://uatoday.tv/politics/russia-to-review-1991-decision-to-recognise-independence-of-baltic-states447681.html > .
•
Stuttaford, Andrew. "Baltic States in Spotlight as Russia Seeks to Help "compatriots"" AFR Weekend. Fairfax Media, 14 Aug. 2015.
Web. 15 Aug. 2015. <http://www.afr.com/news/world/europe/baltic-states-in-spotlight-at-russia-seeks-to-help-compatriots20150727-gila0c>.
•
Tsvetkova, Maria. "Russia Tries to Soothe Baltic States over Independence Review." Reuters. Thomson Reuters, 01 July 2015. Web.
14 Aug. 2015. <http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/07/01/us-russia-baltics-idUSKCN0PB4M520150701>.
•
"What If Russia Went To War With The Baltics?" YouTube. Test Tube News, 25 July 2015. Web. 14 Aug. 2015.
<https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XMyNP0OVv2c>.