Ontario Liberals Take the Lead Two Days Before Election Day;
“Torn” Voters More Likely to Opt for Stability rather than
Change.
Abacus Data Ontario Poll: October 3 to 4, 2011, n=1,015 online survey
from representative panel of Ontarians
www.abacusdata.ca
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Abacus Data: Not your average pollster
Abacus Data Inc. is Canada’s newest player in the public opinion and marketing research industry.
Whether it’s telephone or online surveys, focus groups, one-on-one interviews, or secondary data analysis, the
team at Abacus Data conducts public opinion, marketing, or stakeholder research that provides strategic
insight to our clients. What sets the team at Abacus Data apart is its fresh perspective on politics, business,
and consumer behaviour and a commitment to its clients.
Abacus Data offers its clients a comprehensive research tool kit that includes:
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Custom quantitative studies
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Opinion leader/Decision maker consultations
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The Vertex Panel (www.vertexpanel.ca)
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Omnibus surveys
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Focus groups
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Informal discussions
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Intercept studies
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One-on-one interviews
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Secondary data analysis
Dr. David Coletto – Abacus Data’s CEO
David has seven years experience listening and interpreting what voters,
consumers, and opinion leaders want and expect from government, business,
and the non-profit sectors. He has worked with some of Canada’s largest
corporations and some of its smallest issue and advocacy groups.
He received his PhD in Political Science from the University of Calgary where he
taught Research Methods to undergraduate students.
David is the Pollster for Sun News and a Visiting Fellow at the Arthur Kroeger
College of Public Affairs. He is frequently called upon by news media for his
unique perspective on public affairs, millennials, corporate citizenship, and
political party finance. He co-authored a chapter in the recently released book
Money, Politics and Democracy (eds Young and Jansen, UBC Press 2011).
Methodology
On October 3 and 4, 2011 Abacus Data Inc. conducted an online survey among 1,015 randomly selected
adults from an online panel of Ontarians.
Although there is no margin of error for non-probability sampling, a sample of 1,015 has a margin of error
comparable to +/- 3.1%, 19 times out of 20.
Results of the survey were statistically weighted by gender, age, region, education, and past federal vote
using census data from Statistics Canada and by past vote using Elections Ontario results from the 2007
General Election. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
Two ways of measuring vote intention
For the final wave of our Ontario research, we asked questions from earlier in the campaign on the
likelihood of voting for the main political parties as well as the traditional vote intention question.
The intention of the likelihood to vote question is to measure the potential movement from one party to
another and the choices voters are considering.
In this report, the traditional ballot question reports data from decided and leaning voters and is comparable
to other vote intention questions released by other polling firms.
Page 6 compares the traditional question with the likelihood to vote (new question). What is of most
interest on that page is the distribution of “no preference” voters on the traditional question (which was
asked second).
The table below reports the unweighted and weighted distribution by region of Ontario
Unweighted Count
(All Respondents)
Weighted Count
(All respondents)
Eastern Ontario
161
144
Greater Toronto Area
231
223
Northern Ontario
69
62
Southwestern Ontario
200
209
Metro Toronto
208
196
Hamilton/Niagara
100
99
Central Ontario
46
82
1,015
1,014
Region
Total
Traditional Ballot Question (Decided Voters, n=966)
Q: If the Ontario provincial election were held tomorrow, which one of the following parties
would you vote for in your constituency?
All Decided Voters
(n=926)
Very Likely Voters
(n=731)
Liberal
37%
40%
PC
34%
35%
NDP
24%
22%
Green
4%
3%
Other
1%
1%
Subgroup Analysis (All Decided Voters)
Liberal
PC
NDP
Green
Another Party
Unweighted counts
Men
41%
39%
18%
2%
1%
460
Women
33%
30%
31%
6%
1%
467
18-29
33%
29%
30%
7%
1%
141
30-44
36%
30%
26%
6%
2%
236
45-60
37%
37%
23%
2%
1%
340
60+
40%
37%
20%
3%
210
Eastern
GTA
Northern
SW
Toronto
Hamilton
/Niagara
Central
Liberal
35%
38%
34%
27%
49%
31%
19%
PC
NDP
42%
38%
21%
35%
20%
20%
39%
22%
22%
26%
32%
30%
51%
24%
Green
4%
3%
4%
5%
2%
7%
7%
Another Party
Unweighted counts
151
2%
208
2%
63
180
2%
192
1%
91
42
New Question: Party Most Likely to Vote For
(All Voters,, weighted)
Question : Using the scales below, tell us how likely you are to vote for each of the political
parties running candidates in your local constituency during the Ontario election. 0 means you
will absolutely NOT vote for the party and 10 means you absolutely will vote for the party.
30%
29%
26%
25%
24%
22%
18%
15%
5%
3%
Sept 12
Sept 25
Oct 4
Subgroup Analysis
Liberal
PC
NDP
Green
Another Party
No preference
Unweighted counts
Liberal
PC
NDP
Green
Another Party
No preference
Unweighted counts
Men
32%
31%
14%
2%
1%
20%
474
Women
25%
20%
22%
3%
1%
29%
494
18-29
23%
17%
22%
3%
1%
35%
147
30-44
26%
22%
17%
4%
1%
30%
247
45-60
30%
28%
18%
1%
1%
22%
357
Eastern
GTA
Northern
SW
Toronto
26%
32%
12%
4%
1%
26%
154
28%
29%
15%
2%
1%
25%
219
24%
18%
31%
2%
2%
24%
67
28%
27%
19%
3%
1%
23%
188
40%
14%
20%
1%
1%
24%
199
Hamilton
/Niagara
25%
23%
21%
3%
1%
26%
97
60+
35%
30%
17%
2%
17%
217
Central
17%
37%
15%
4%
1%
27%
44
Old vs. New
Comparing Ballot Question and Most Likely to Vote
Traditional Ballot Question
(Decided Voters Only)
Party Most Likely to Vote For
(10-point scale, new question)
Liberal
PC
NDP
Green
Other
No Pref.
Liberal
97%
1%
3%
4%
29%
31%
PC
2%
97%
3%
-
-
32%
NDP
1%
2%
94%
-
-
28%
Green
-
-
1%
96%
29%
6%
Other
-
-
-
-
43%
3%
The table above compares the results of the traditional ballot question with the new likelihood
to vote for a party question. It shows that for the most part those who said they were likely to
vote for one party over another in the new question also selected that party on the traditional
ballot question.
What is noteworthy in the table however is the column “No Pref” which includes respondents
who did not rate their likelihood to vote for one party higher than any other. When pushed to
make a choice in the traditional ballot question, a plurality of these respondents said they
would vote PC(32%) followed by the Liberals (32%) and the NDP (28%). This suggests that
between the debate and now, the Liberal Party has done the best at firming up their
supporters while some Tory voters are now questioning their support.
Absolutely not going to
vote for party X
Party X
0
1
Strength of Support for
Each Party
(All Voters, n=1,191, weighted)
2
3
4
5
50%
PC (Wave 2)
6
7
Could be swayed
to vote for party
Unlikely to vote
for party
PC (Wave 1)
Absolutely going to
vote for party X
23%
47%
8
9
10
Likely voting for
party
27%
27%
27%
PC (Wave 3)
53%
23%
24%
Liberal (Wave 1)
53%
25%
22%
Liberal (Wave 2)
52%
26%
23%
Liberal (Wave 3)
47%
NDP (Wave 1)
26%
55%
NDP (Wave 2)
27%
50%
NDP (Wave 3)
20%
40%
18%
28%
18%
60%
Question: Using the scales below, tell us how likely you are to vote for each of the
political parties running candidates in your local constituency during the Ontario
election. 0 means you will absolutely NOT vote for the party and 10 means you
absolutely will vote for the party.
18%
32%
55%
0%
26%
80%
100%
Who would make the Best Premier?
(All Respondents, n=1,014, weighted)
Q: Which political party leader do you think would make the best Premier of Ontario?
Unsure, 30%
McGuinty, 30%
Schreiner, 1%
Horwath, 19%
Hudak, 21%
Political Party Leader Attributes
Question: We are going to list a number of statements that can be used to describe the political
leaders in Ontario. Tell us which statement best describes any of the leaders. (Change from Wave 2)
Dalton
McGuinty
Tim Hudak
Andrea
Horwath
None of
them
Calm under pressure
45 (+6)
19 (-1)
16 (NC)
20 (-5)
Genuine
19 (+5)
16 (-3)
34 (+2)
31
Down to earth
16 (+2)
18 (-5)
49 (+10)
14 (-10)
Friendly
19 (NC)
18 (-4)
49 (+8)
14 (-4)
Intelligent
37 (+7)
22 (-4)
22 (+2)
20 (-4)
Unpredictable
40 (-2)
35 (+4)
9 (+2)
15 (-5)
Inexperienced
2 (-2)
27 (+4)
45 (+5)
26
30
23
32
15
Attribute
Optimistic (not asked W2)
Liberal Leader Dalton McGuinty
Q: Do you have a favourable or unfavourable impression of the following people?
Wave 2
9%
Wave 3
11%
0%
22%
20%
26%
20%
Very favourable
15%
18%
40%
Somewhat favourable
34%
18%
27%
60%
Neutral
80%
Somewhat unfavourable
100%
Very unfavourable
PC Leader Tim Hudak
Q: Do you have a favourable or unfavourable impression of the following people?
Wave 2
10%
Wave 3
10%
0%
Very favourable
24%
26%
22%
20%
22%
40%
Somewhat favourable
Neutral
18%
22%
22%
60%
Somewhat unfavourable
26%
80%
100%
Very unfavourable
NDP Leader Andrea Horwath
Q: Do you have a favourable or unfavourable impression of the following people?
Wave 2
11%
Wave 3
11%
29%
42%
37%
10%
34%
0%
20%
40%
Very favourable
Somewhat favourable
60%
Neutral
12%
80%
Somewhat unfavourable
8%
6%
100%
Very unfavourable
Direction of the Province
Q: Generally speaking, would you say things in Ontario are heading in the right direction, or are
they off on the wrong track?
Unsure, 20%
Right direction,
40%
Wrong track, 40%
Subgroup Analysis
Men
Women
18-29
30-44
45-60
60+
Right direction
45%
36%
38%
41%
36%
48%
Wrong track
Unsure
40%
15%
40%
25%
35%
27%
36%
22%
46%
18%
35%
17%
Unweighted counts
494
521
159
263
372
221
Eastern
GTA
Northern
SW
Toronto
Ham-Nia
Central
Right direction
41%
37%
36%
40%
50%
34%
38%
Wrong track
Unsure
Unweighted counts
41%
43%
32%
40%
18%
20%
32%
20%
161
231
69
200
30%
20%
208
52%
14%
100
40%
22%
46
State of the Ontario Economy
Q: How would you rate the current state of the economy in Ontario now?
60%
54%
50%
40%
30%
23%
18%
20%
10%
3%
2%
0%
Very good
Good
Ok
Poor
Very poor
Subgroup Analysis
Men
22%
52%
26%
494
Women
18%
57%
26%
521
Eastern
GTA
Northern
SW
Toronto
Ham-Nia
Central
Very good/Good
23%
20%
23%
16%
26%
13%
20%
Ok
50%
52%
60%
55%
55%
53%
56$
Poor/Very poor
27%
28%
18%
29%
19%
34%
24%
Unweighted counts
161
231
69
200
208
100
46
Very good/Good
Ok
Poor/Very poor
Unweighted counts
18-29
26%
54%
19%
159
30-44
21%
60%
19%
263
45-60
16%
52%
32%
372
60+
21%
50%
29%
221
ELECTION ISSUES AND BEST PARTY TO DEAL WITH THEM
All Respondents
Election Issue
%
Important
Managing the economy
81%
41%
40%
17%
3%
Keeping taxes low
67%
17%
49%
30%
5%
Reducing hospital and
surgery wait times
61%
40%
25%
33%
3%
Reducing the deficit
57%
34%
46%
17%
3%
Government ethics and trust
55%
21%
26%
42%
12%
51%
30%
37%
23%
9%
45%
41%
17%
39%
3%
45%
22%
8%
19%
52%
44%
39%
22%
37%
2%
41%
50%
19%
27%
4%
Improving public transit
34%
37%
14%
40%
10%
Dealing with the federal
government
33%
47%
36%
16%
2%
Reducing crime
32%
30%
44%
23%
3%
Increasing access to post
secondary education
30%
43%
21%
34%
2%
Managing Ontario's
electricity system
Maintaining high quality
public services
Protecting the environment
Making it easier to find a
family doctor
Improving the quality of
elementary and secondary
education
Predicted Election Outcome
Q: What do you think is the likely outcome of the Ontario election?
All
respondents
Liberal voters
PC voters
NDP voters
Liberal majority
10%
20%
2%
4%
Liberal minority
41%
66%
18%
36%
PC majority
7%
1%
18%
4%
PC minority
23%
5%
49%
16%
NDP majority
2%
1%
1%
8%
NDP minority
6%
-
1%
21%
Other result
1%
-
-
1%
Unsure
11%
8%
11%
11%
Election Outcome
For more information about this study or Abacus Data Inc.,
please contact:
David Coletto, PhD
Chief Executive Officer
(613) 232-2806 x. 248
[email protected]
Twitter.com/ColettoD
To read our analyses and blog, find us online at www.abacusdata.ca