Explaining Ethnic AutonomyRegimes in LatinA m e r i c a I Donna Lee Van Cott Through a systematic examination of nine cases, the author identifies factors that enabled indigenous movements in five Latin American countries to secure formal recognition of politico-territorial autonomy regimes. All nine cases occurred within the framework of a larger regime bargain---either (1) peace talks intended to end armed struggle when the regime faced a serious challenge to maintain political order or territorial control, or (2) a severe crisis of legitimacy and governability that forced political elites to renegotiate fundamental regime structures via the process of constitutional reform. In the five successful cases, changes in the political opportunity structure occurred that favored indigenous autonomy claimants. These changes were the opening of access to decision-making spheres and the emergence of an influential ally. During the last two decades indigenous peoples '2 organizations throughout Latin America converged on an alternative, "pluricultural" vision of the state. In the pluricultural state they propose, indigenous peoples are preconstituted and self-governing collective entities within the national political community. The key institutional component of this vision is the construction of politicoterritorial autonomy regimes in which each indigenous culture may freely develop without interference from the state and non-indigenous society. Indigenous peoples constitute 10 percent of the total population of the Americas, or an estimated 40 million persons belonging to approximately 400 distinct groups. They are concentrated in southern Mexico, Central America, and the central Andes. Indigenous peoples are the only ethnic group in Latin America whose claims challenge the territoriality of states. 3 Their autonomy claims vary with respect to the level at which they desire autonomy to be e x e r c i s e d - the community, municipality, state, or region--and whether autonomous units are to be mono- or multiethnic. Yet, despite the great diversity among indigenous peoples, contemporary indigenous autonomy claims exhibit a striking similarity, owing to almost three decades of intensive dialogue among indigenous organizations in the Americas (Zufiiga 1998: 143). The claims converge Donna Lee Van Cott is assistant professor of polmcal science at the Umvermty of Tennessee, Knoxville. She is author of The Friendly LiquMation of the Past. The Pohtics of Diversity in Latin America and editor of Indigenous Peoples and Democracy in Latm Amerzca. Studies in Comparative lnternationalDevelopment, Winter 2001, Vol. 35, No 4, pp 30-58. Van Cott 31 on a demand for political and administrative self-government powers, legal jurisdiction to create norms and sanction behavior, and the right to manage their own resources and those of the state corresponding to their territory and/ or the population thereon. As D/az Polanco observes, the autonomy claim should not be considered as one among a list of demands indigenous peoples make for special recognition and rights--for bilingual education, protection of cultural artifacts, etc. Autonomy is the "articulating d e m a n d " - - t h e demand through which all other claims are fulfilled. Neither should we consider autonomy to refer merely to the protection and survival of indigenous cultures. Autonomy is an explicitly political demand requiring a change in the distribution of political power and the creation of new institutions that facilitate the political participation of previously excluded groups (Dfaz Polanco 1998: 216-217). Indigenous claims to politico-territorial autonomy (hereinafter "autonomy") are nothing new. They are based on centuries of attachment to specific territories and self-government practices that endured due to the persistence of colonial-era laws in some states that recognized territorial rights, as well as the incomplete penetration by Latin American states and the market into geographically remote spaces (Ardito 1997: 4; Bengoa 1994: 21; Diaz Polanco 1991: 75-77). What is new about indigenous autonomy claims is that they emerged on the national political agenda framed in similar terminology throughout Latin America in the 1980s and 1990s. Only one case of successful autonomy claims occurred prior to that time (Panama 1925-1938). What explains the recent political salience of autonomy claims? First, neoliberal economic policies introduced in the 1980s and 1990s-particularly those emphasizing privatization and market competition--threaten indigenous communities' hold on the territorial basis of their political and cultural institutions and their capacity to control the means of production necessary to reproduce their cultures (Brysk and Wise 1997: 82-88; Yashar 1998: 34). The popularity of decentralization in the 1990s--part of the neoliberal policy package--appears to be facilitating the realization of indigenous movements' aspiration for autonomy within the state (Assies 1998: 7). Indigenous organizations advocate transferring competencies of the central state either to new, anomalous, subnational units designated only for indigenous peoples (similar to the policy in the United States and Canada) or to existing, universalized, subnational units where Indians constitute a majority of the population and are empowered to govern themselves according to their own customs and laws. Changes in the state's territorial organization that achieve these transfers are easier for indigenous organizations to justify in the context of a more decentralized state. Second, indigenous organizations joined other social movements in the struggle for democracy in the late 1970s and 1980s and, in the post-transition conjuncture, in critiquing the exclusionary quality of democratic citizenship (Alvarez, Dagnino and Escobar 1998: 1-2). Through these struggles indigenous movements forged identities as bearers of rights, specifically citizenship rights. The frame of "indigenous citizenship" developed by them connotes a distinct form of collective citizenship derived from the right of a people to an autonomous territory within the state. 32 Studies In Comparative International Development 1 Winter 2001 Finally, the effort within the United Nations since 1982 to develop a convention protecting indigenous rights created an international forum for indigenous representatives to articulate collectively a vision of autonomy, and generated exemplary developments in indigenous self-government rights in industrialized countries like Australia, Canada, and Denmark (Banton 1996: 89-103; Bengoa 1994: 35; Dandier 1996: 5-8). Contact with the transnational movement's discourse on self-determination helped local and national indigenous leaders to converge on a c o m m o n claim to autonomy based on the rights of peoples or nations. In this way indigenous peoples' collective identities became multiple and cumulative. This final identity-construction--as peoples with the right to self-determination under international law--was crucial to the development of the movement's argument that indigenous peoples have a right to political autonomy, that the space they occupy must be considered territory, and that the states in w h i c h they r e s i d e m u s t be c o n s i d e r e d "pluricultural" or even "plurinational" (Zufiiga 1998: 144-145). TheArgument Most Latin American states have to some degree incorporated the principles of non-discrimination and multiculturalism into their legal framework, either directly in their constitutions or through the adoption of international human rights conventions with constitutional rank (see Van Cott 2000: ch. 9). Only five Latin American states (Colombia, Ecuador, Nicaragua, Panama, and Venezuela), however, constitutionally codified ethnically defined autonomy regimes. I explain why indigenous autonomy claims in these countries were successful while in four other countries they failed. I argue that indigenous peoples' organizations were successful when they could raise their autonomy claims in a forum that was part of a larger regime bargain, allowing them to insert their claims in a discussion of fundamental regime issues. Without the urgency of the larger regime bargain, governments are free to ignore indigenous autonomy claims. The cases exhibit two distinct negotiating sites for this larger regime bargain: (1) peace talks resolving an armed conflict between the government and indigenous combatants; and (2) debates on constitutional reform generated by larger crises of governability and legitimacy that required the renegotiation of fundamental regime issues. Since larger regime bargains emerged in all nine cases discussed here, they are a necessary but not sufficient condition for successful autonomy claims. Successful cases are distinguished from failed cases by the occurrence of changes in the political opportunity structure (POS) that assisted indigenous organizations in making their claims. 4 Two changes occurred in all successful cases: (1) channels of access to decision-making power opened for indigenous autonomy claimants, and (2) influential allies emerged to support these claimants. Potential social movements perceive changes in POS as signals that the formation of a social m o v e m e n t - - o r the mobilization of its m e m b e r s - - i s likely to be successful, that is, likely to lead to the achievement of the group's goals. I seek to discover whether those signals were accurate and, if so, under what circumstances. I recognize that social move- 33 Van CoU ments themselves cause changes in POS. They do not always wait on the sidelines watching for signals; they often jump into the fray to force changes in the opportunity structure to occur, particularly, as Andolina argues with respect to Ecuador in 1997, during periods of acute conflict and legitimacy crisis when the opportunity structure becomes more fluid (Andolina 1998: 3). In the "successful" cases discussed later, indigenous communities or organizations achieved constitutional recognition of politico-territorial structures in which their own authorities have autonomous powers of self-government, administration of justice, and control over state resources. By that measure they are all successful. Yet the scope of autonomy achieved varies among them. The geographic extension of autonomy and access to state resources is greatest in Colombia and Panama, where indigenous authority structures are wellinstitutionalized and widely supported among the indigenous population. These two also are among the oldest cases--more time has passed since legal recognition of autonomy to enable indigenous organizations to secure its practical realization. In Nicaragua, autonomy regimes were legally established but full realization of autonomy rights has been impeded by natural disasters, recuperation from war, infighting among the multiethnic inhabitants of the zone of autonomy, and the reluctance of the central government to transfer power and resources (Hannum 1996: 204, 224-225; Gonzfilez Perez 1997; Sollis 1989: 516-520). In Ecuador and Venezuela, the scope and content of constitutional recognition of autonomy in 1998 and 1999, respectively, is potentially greater, on paper, than in the earlier cases. However, until pending statutory legislation is approved it is difficult to assess how these cases compare since both constitutions leave important details to statutory law. In Ecuador, the indigenous political party MUPP submitted a statutory proposal to congress in January 2000. It awaits consideration while the country addresses severe economic and political crises. MUPP gains in local and national elections since the constitutional reform should help facilitate the passage of statutory legislation. In Venezuela, the congress responsible for considering this legislation was seated after elections held in June 2000 and the indigenous organizations are still working on their implementation proposals. Despite the unfolding nature of autonomy rights in these two cases, the achievement of constitutional recognition of the main components of indigenous movements' vision of a u t o n o m y - - t h e criterion for scoring a successful case in this study--provides a crucial tool for its ultimate realization. Table 1 Scoring of Cases of Attempted Autonomy Claims ARMED CONFLICT NEGOTIATINGSITE CONSTITUTIONALREFORM NEGOTIATINGSITE SUCCESS Nicaragua(1984-1987), Panama (1925-1938) Colombia (1991), Ecuador (1998) Venezuela(1999) FAILURE Guatemala (1994-1995), Mexico (1994-1996) Bolivia (1993-1997), Peru (1993) 34 Studies in Comparative International Development / Winter 2001 Case Selection The universe of cases includes Latin American countries with an indigenous population asserting autonomy claims--a total of 17. 5 From this universe, case selection occurred in two stages. I first considered all successful cases to see what they had in common. From these five successful cases I concluded, first, that success depends on indigenous actors' ability to present autonomy claims in the context of a larger regime bargain and, second, that two types of regime bargains had occurred: peace negotiations (Panama, Nicaragua) and constitutional reform (Colombia, Ecuador, Venezuela). I divided the five successful cases according to the type of regime bargain that occurred. I next looked for cases of failed autonomy claims in the context of either of the regime bargains in order to explain what distinguished successful from failed cases. For the peace talks negotiating site, the criteria for further consideration was armed struggle in the 20th century between the state and an organized sector of the indigenous population that engages in offensive and defensive armed actions to secure or defend its political and territorial autonomy. The armed indigenous movement must pose a threat to territorial security and integration credible and significant enough to convince the state to engage in peace negotiations. This criterion excludes cases where indigenous peoples have organized an essentially defensive armed response to aggression from the state or non-state actors, where rebellions have been quickly eradicated militarily, or where agrarian conflicts persist mainly between indigenous communities and landowners and their local government cronies. I found two failed cases meeting these criteria (Guatemala, Mexico) and included both in the next stage of analysis. Thus, the study includes all four cases in the case universe--failed and successful--in which autonomy claims were brought to the table during peace negotiations. The subset of cases eligible for consideration with respect to the second negotiating site, constitutional reform, was much larger. Most Latin American countries have undertaken extensive constitutional reforms since the wave of transitions to democracy began in 1979, some of them several times, and most of these have indigenous populations asserting autonomy claims. 6 More than 10 cases were eligible for further consideration (our original 17, minus the four being considered in the peace talks site and the three successful cases), since some cases include multiple constitutional reforms. The author did not have the resources to investigate whether or why indigenous peoples' organizations unsuccessfully asserted autonomy claims during each instance of constitutional reform in all 10 Latin American countries. In the absence of a theoretically salient criterion for selection, I included Bolivia and Peru because they were the only cases remaining in the universe whose indigenous population exceeds one-third of their total population. In all other eligible cases the indigenous population is under 10 percent. The criterion of population size is arbitrary in relation to the argument developed, but it reduces the cases chosen for further consideration to a manageable size and ensures the inclusion of cases of greatest interest to political scientists. 7 The explanatory value of population size in predicting success or failure is discussed at the end of the article. Van Co~ 35 A complete understanding of necessary and sufficient conditions for attaining ethnic autonomy regimes would require the application of my findings to countries with small indigenous populations where autonomy claims failed to thrive during constitutional reforms. Negotiating Site !: Peace Talks to End Armed Conflict I first discuss the circumstances in each case that led to the establishment of the negotiating site--peace talks to end armed conflict between the government and indigenous combatants. I then present evidence that the two POS variables--opened access to decision-making spheres and an influential ally-were present in the two successful cases and absent in the failed ones (see Table 2). Getting to Peace Talks In Panama in 1925 the Kuna demanded autonomy in order to expel an abusive police presence and to prevent increasing interference from foreigners and Panamanians who suppressed Kuna cultural practices (Howe 1986: 19). With the encouragement of American adventurer Richard Marsh, in the last week of February, Kuna soldiers murdered or chased off all Panamanian police and officials within San Blas, the archipelago of islands on the Caribbean coast the Kuna traditionally have occupied, and declared the formation of a selfgoverning Kuna Republic. The uprising challenged the capacity of the new Panamanian government to retain control of the former Colombian province. The United States brokered peace talks on March 4 between Panamanian officials and chiefs from thirteen Kuna communities. The agreement guaranteed the Kuna the rights of other Panamanian citizens and recognized their right to "maintain order among themselves" without the interference of police--a partial concession to their autonomy claims (Howe 1998: 280-289). Table 2 Peace Talks to End Armed Conflict: Explanatory Variables Successful Cases CASE PANAMA (1925-1938) Failed Cases NICARAGUA GUATEMALA MEXICO (1984-1987) (1994-1995) (1994-1996) OPENED ACCESS yes TO DECISIONMAKING SPHERES, i.e., Indiansclaiming autonomyparticipate directlyin negotiations yes no no INFLUENTIALALLY yes, United States yes, UnitedStates no no 36 Studies in Comparative International Development / Winter 2001 Although the Kuna gained local self-government powers and evicted the police, the issue of land rights and the relationship of the Kuna to the Panamanian government remained unsettled. Worse, soon after the agreement was signed the government began punitive actions against rebel villages. Low intensity warfare, stalemated negotiations, and pleas for American intervention persisted throughout the 1920s. After the Kuna sought out leaders of a newly formed labor union to act as go-between, negotiations resumed in 1930. Passage of a bill recognizing partial Kuna autonomy on San Blas--and including protection of Kuna land rights--was secured by the end of the year. Negotiations continued until 1938, when San Bias was officially recognized as an autonomous c o m a r c a . 8 Throughout this period Kuna maintained possession of their arms and successfully resisted attempts to pacify San Blas (Howe 1998: 292). As in Panama, Miskitu and other ethnic minorities on Nicaragua's Atlantic coast resented an increasing government military presence and the failure of the Sandinistas to understand the fundamentally ethnic and cultural nature of Miskitu opposition to centralized rule imposed by Managua (Hale 1994: 154; Sollis 1989: 499-501). After nearly four years of armed conflict, 9 peace talks, and autonomy negotiations began within the context of a larger regime bargain concerning the nature of national identity, the relationship of the eastern third of the country to the rest of Nicaragua, and the efforts of the Sandinistas to consolidate their revolution in the face of external and internal military pressure. The Nicaraguan case is unique in that the indigenous combatants, rather than being parties to the resulting autonomy agreement, acted (unintentionally) as a lever that motivated the Sandinistas to negotiate autonomy with diverse non-belligerent representatives of all six ethnic groups on the Atlantic coast. Thus, the Sandinistas established two simultaneous negotiating sites. They commenced autonomy discussions with civil society leaders in December 1984 as a means to defuse support for the Miskitu guerrillas. The Sandinistas realized that they could not militarily eradicate "a well-armed and motivated insurgency, receiving substantial support from the local population, from refugees in Honduras and Costa Rica as well as from the United States" (Sollis 1 9 8 9 : 5 0 9 - 5 1 0 ) . As Hale recalls, by early 1983, the government was unable to extend its influence in many parts of the Atlantic Coast controlled by Miskitu guerrillas, whose military strength and public support was at its height in April 1984. Moreover, in October 1984 the military power of the Contras had reached its apex. The Sandinistas concluded that "a continued effort to win the war by purely military means would be prohibitively costly and doomed to failure" (Hale 1994: 174). In October 1984, the Sandinistas commenced peace negotiations with two rival guerrilla organizations, MISURASATA and MISURA. The talks proved difficult, and were suspended. 1~ Thereafter, the government's autonomy proposal evolved in direct opposition to the proposals of MISURASATA and MISURA, which the government portrayed as ethnocentric, intransigent, and counter-revolutionary (Hale 1994:175). It created a National Autonomy Commission and two Regional Autonomy Commissions in December 1984 to pre- Van Cott 37 pare a draft proposal for discussion with Atlantic Coast residents. As consultations took place during the second half of 1985, the tide of community support turned in favor of the autonomy process and against an armed solution. The National Constituent Assembly approved the basic outlines of the autonomy proposal in November 1986. By 1986, popular opinion in Miskitu communities had shifted from supporting the guerrillas toward a more ambiguous position of participating in the autonomy process and trying to move both sides towards peace and reconciliation, while maintaining clandestine support for the Miskitu guerrillas and remaining firmly committed to pursuing Miskitu rights when conditions were more favorable (Hale 1994: 167, 190; Sollis 1989: 512-13). On 22 April 1987, 220 elected delegates and some 2,000 representatives from most communities on the Atlantic Coast attended a Multi-Ethnic Assembly to discuss a final, consensus proposal (Sollis 1989: 514). They approved 95 percent of the articles unanimously (Gonzfiles Perez 1997: 279). The 1987 Autonomy Statute, which the Sandinista legislature passed on 2 September 1987, established two multiethnic Atlantic Coast autonomous regions. Guatemalan guerrillas were not fighting for indigenous autonomy. Non-Indians who launched the struggle in 1963 sought far-reaching social, political, and economic change. The case is included here because by the early 1970s many Maya had joined the guerrillas, a consequence of the armed movement's decision to shift to the mainly Maya western zone and actively to recruit Maya combatants, and the government repression of Maya communities that followed this shift (Coello and Duarte 1993: 236; Smith 1991: 32). When peace talks began in the 1990s, the URNG incorporated Maya organizations' demands in their agenda, despite the fact that its leadership was mainly Ladino and the central issue for the armed movement remained class, rather than ethnic, conflict. The topic of indigenous rights and identity was strategically important for the URNG "both in terms of the URNG's political future and in terms of its immediate credibility with civil sector groups and its own field commanders and combatants" (Central America Report, 3 Feb. 1995: p. 8). The military threat posed by the guerrillas had been eliminated by the mid1980s. Peace talks commenced in the 1990s in order to consolidate a democratic transition that occurred formally in 1985, particularly with respect to the supremacy of civilians over a military whose political role was exaggerated by the lingering, low-intensity armed conflict. Peace talks also were intended to resolve fundamental questions of socioeconomic equity and the nature of national identity. The Mayan rights movement had received increasing national and international attention in the wake of the award of 1992's Nobel Peace Prize to Rigoberta Menchtl, who became an international icon of indigenous rights struggles. Direct peace talks began in Mexico in April 1991 between the government and the Guatemalan National Revolutionary Unity (URNG), a coordinating body representing four armed leftist groups. The pace of progress accelerated following the failed self-coup that culminated in the unlikely presidency of former Human Rights Ombudsman, Ramiro de Le6n Carpio. The new president generated some trust among Maya organizations by naming a top leader of the COMG (Coordination of Mayan Peoples Organizations) as Minister of 38 Studies in Comparative International Development / Winter 2001 Education (Coello and Duarte 1993: 249). The COMG, formed in 1991 and representing some 15 Maya organizations, was the first Maya organization to explicitly demand territorial and political autonomy (Plant 2000: 35; Smith 1991:30). After De Le6n Carpio became president, the United Nations restructured and moderated the peace negotiations. Indigenous identity and rights were among the most difficult issues remaining on the agenda. The March 1994 round of talks failed when participants realized that constitutional reforms would be necessary to achieve real advances. The Coordinator of Organizations of the Mayan People of Guatemala (COPMAGUA), formed in May 1994 to draft peace proposals on behalf of some 300 organizations representing the Maya, Xinca, and Garifuna, had called for a sweeping constitutional reform to create a "pluri-cultural and multilingual" state. Among the rights claimed were local self-government, recognition of customary law, and collective land ownership that would constitute language-based political and administrative autonomy in zones where Maya predominate. COPMAGUA argued that "for the full participation, rights and decision-making powers of the Mayan peoples, it is essential that the structure of the present state, Constitution, and electoral and political legislation be changed" (Inter Press Service, 4 November 1994). In late 1994 the conservative-dominated congress vowed to block constitutional reforms resulting from the peace process and to continue blocking ratification of International Labor Organization Convention 169 on the Rights of Indigenous and Tribal Peoples (Ibid.) The government and URNG negotiators met four times in 1994 to discuss indigenous rights. Conflict on this issue caused the suspension of peace talks between October 1994 and January 1995. When an Accord on the Identity and Rights of Indigenous Peoples finally was signed on 31 March 1995 it was hailed as a major breakthrough in the peace talks. But the accord makes no mention of political-administrative autonomy for ethno-linguistic communities, as Mayan organizations had wanted (Plant 2000: 35). Instead, it confers some autonomous powers with respect to education and economic development within linguistically defined regions. In fact, there is little in the accords to challenge Guatemala's existing political-juridical institutionality (Mendoza 2000: 5). Once the Accord entered into effect in December 1996, joint government-indigenous commissions met to negotiate the details of implementation through constitutional reform and statutory law. In this second negotiating opportunity Maya activists attempted to insert more emphasis on autonomy. They failed and, in fact, language in the accords was weakened in the resulting constitutional reform proposal. In the event, the matter became moot. In 1999 Guatemalan voters narrowly rejected the proposed constitution. As in Guatemala, the original agenda of Mexico's mainly indigenous armed movement, the Zapatista Army of National Liberation (EZLN), encompassed an extensive list of economic, political, and social demands. Indigenous autonomy claims were not explicitly advanced until the rapid consolidation of a national movement for indigenous autonomy in the months following the initial 1 January 1994 uprising. The growth of that movement throughout Mexico influenced the emergence of autonomy as a key principle of the Zapatista's Van Co~ 39 reform proposal (Mattiace 1998: 4). Although the stand-off with the Mexican government has dragged on since 1994, the actual armed conflict was brief, encompassing a few weeks in January 1994 and a second, briefer offensive at the end of that year. The EZLN's offensive military threat was quickly neutralized. What continued and, arguably, has intensified, is a state of militarization and tension in the conflict zone, attributable mainly to the presence of paramilitary groups clashing with pro-EZLN communities. The Zapatista uprising, and the government's response, provoked a larger national debate on the quality of Mexican democracy during the twilight of PRI hegemony, and on the nature of Mexican national identity, long subsumed within a national myth of "cosmic" mestizaje. The first round of peace talks failed, in part due to political and economic instability surrounding the 1994 national elections and the collapse of the peso. The 11 March 1995 Law for Dialogue, Conciliation and Dignified Peace in Chiapas established a legal framework for peace negotiations. After five months of negotiations on the format and scope of the talks, four months of negotiations followed on substantive issues. The EZLN invited representatives from diverse sectors of civil society, experts, and intellectuals, to act as advisors and guests during the talks. Meanwhile, indigenous organizations mobilized independently throughout Mexico to articulate their own rights claims. The EZLN sponsored a National Indigenous Forum on 3-8 January 1996, where 500 delegates from 178 organizations shared their views on indigenous rights (Hernandez Navarro 1999). In February 1996, negotiations began in San Andr6s Larrafnzar. The parties signed Accords on Indigenous Rights and Culture on February 16. The San Andr6s Accords mention autonomy but do not specify the territorial level at which it is exercised (Fox et al. 1999; G6mez Rivera 1999). The omission of specific reference to municipal or regional autonomy disappointed the Chiapas-based autonomy movement and sectors of the EZLN command (Ruiz 2000: 45). Nevertheless, they have since fought for implementation of the Accords as a minimum threshold for indigenous rights. In October 1996, the EZLN and the multi-partisan congressional Commission for Concord and Pacification (COCOPA) established a commission, which included Mexican government representatives, to draft constitutional reforms implementing the Accords and to establish terms for their verification. The EZLN accepted the resulting legislative proposal. In December, the Zedillo administration rejected the proposal, claiming it would "balkanize" the country, and offered a counterproposal unacceptable to the EZLN (Barcenas 1999). Unable to force the EZLN and COCOPA to revise their proposal, and in violation of the San Andr6s Accords, which required any constitutional reform proposal on indigenous rights to be jointly presented by both parties, Zedillo submitted his own proposal to congress on 15 March 1998. That proposal confines autonomy to the impotent community and "cultural" levels, and eliminates the status as subjects of public law conferred on indigenous communities by the Accords (Assies 1998; Barcenas 1999). The COCOPA-sponsored proposal, based on community rights, had opened the door to municipal-level autonomy. Zedillo's unilateral initiative on indigenous rights, and his failure to implement the San Andr6s Accords and to accept the COCOPA proposal, outraged the EZLN and indigenous orga- 40 Studies in Comparative International Development / Winter 2001 nizations and effectively ended the peace negotiations for the remainder of Zedillo's administration. Although autonomy rights formally have not been recognized, movements for indigenous autonomy have in some cases achieved de facto recognition. Following the uprising, taking advantage of the turbulent political environment and the Mexican government's reluctance to use deadly force against impoverished Indians under the watchful eye of the international media, many pro-EZLN municipalities declared themselves in rebellion and established de facto autonomy regimes. On Columbus Day, 1994, an organization uniting 280 Chiapan indigenous and peasant organizations declared seven multiethnic autonomous regions. Two months later, behind an EZLN military offensive, indigenous organizations seized dozens of municipalities in Chiapas, declaring them "free municipalities" and establishing de facto Pluriethnic Autonomous Regions (RAPs) (Lomelf 2000:228-238; Mattiace 1998: 5). Since 1994, 38 municipalities and pluriethnic regions have declared their autonomy and established self-governing structures (Fox et al. 1999). Although the Mexican army quickly recuperated many of these, some continue to declare their autonomy, refusing to pay taxes or to permit the military to enter. The Zedillo administration's immediate response was military--using state force to disband the autonomy governments. In 1998, in an effort to reduce tensions, the Chiapas government began negotiations with some rebel municipalities, partially recognizing their legal status as "Transitional Municipal Councils" (Mexican Government 1998:37). Notwithstanding these isolated cases of de facto success, indigenous autonomy regimes lack constitutional recognition and are contingent upon shifting political forces. OpenedAccess to Decision-Making Spheres In this negotiating site, access to decision-making spheres is considered to be open when indigenous organizations claiming autonomy are able to directly represent themselves in peace negotiations--unmediated by third parties empowered to secure an agreement without their consent. Direct participation in negotiations enables autonomy claimants to engage in brinkmanship, i.e., the exposure of an adversary to a shared risk (Schelling 1960: 200). The ability to threaten to reject the entire bargain if their claims were denied dramatically increased indigenous autonomy claimants' bargaining leverage. In Panama, Kuna chiefs participated in all negotiating situations and agreement could not be achieved without their consent. In Nicaragua, the situation was more complex. There were serious divisions between the Miskitu, on one hand, and the Sumu, Rama, and creole groups, on the other, the latter deeply resenting the Miskitu's capacity to monopolize channels of dialogue with the Sandinistas. Moreover, internal divisions existed among Miskitu guerrilla leaders and between them and Miskitu favoring a peaceful, political solution. Nevertheless, the region's indigenous population actively participated in the lengthy consultations on autonomy and their elected representatives in the Multi-Ethnic Assembly approved the autonomy statute (Dfaz Polanco 1991" 191). Van CoR 41 In Guatemala and Mexico, indigenous organizations claiming autonomy rights fought unsuccessfully for direct participation in negotiations on indigenous rights accords that were part of larger peace agreements. Beginning in 1990, Guatemalan Maya organizations sponsored numerous fora on the peace process. Documents emerging from these discussions explicitly demanded political and administrative autonomy, specifically the restructuring of the state along linguistic and ethnic lines. Maya organizations argued that recognition as peoples with the right to self-determination was the indispensable basis for other rights claims (Coello and Duarte 1993: 245-247). They demanded direct participation in negotiations between the URNG and government through representatives elected by Maya organizations. As Maya leaders argued, "[w]ithin the dialogue between the government and the URNG they are going to speak of the indigenous question, without the presence of the indigenous. Peace cannot be achieved without the opportunity for the majority to express itself" (translation by the author; Coello and Duarte 1993: 245). The extent of direct participation by Maya organizations in the peace negotiations was nil. A Cakchiquel leader who was Deputy Minister of Education at the time was the only Maya to actually sign the agreement (Plant 2000: 35). Maya "participation" occurred mainly through public statements, informal meetings with URNG leaders, and participation with other civil society organizations in the Assembly of Civil Society (ASC), a forum the United Nations established in 1993 during the restructuring of the peace talks to channel civil society proposals to both negotiating parties. The ASC included representatives from the URNG, NGOs, human rights, labor, church, and indigenous organizations and produced non-binding proposals on all substantive issues in the negotiations. Maya organizations formed COPMAGUA in 1994 to coordinate indigenous representation in the ASC. It produced a set of proposals for the peace negotiations based on COMG's earlier work, including the first draft of the 1995 indigenous rights accord. COPMAGUA's influence was limited, however, because Maya organizations were a minority within an Assembly dominated by Ladino popular organizations allied with the URNG. The ASC revised COPMAGUA's indigenous rights proposal, removing "some contentious issues relating to political autonomy," prior to submitting it to both sides (Plant 2000: 35; see also, Brett 2000). Although the URNG sought to secure a strong package of indigenous cultural rights, and the ASC provided a means for indigenous leaders to express their demands, neither the URNG nor the ASC advanced indigenous autonomy claims. Why? First, some URNG negotiators did not understand the claim and what it would entail practically; others were concerned about how it would affect their ability to politically control their base. A more important reason is that URNG negotiators worried the territorial autonomy claim would reduce chances for an agreement, given the vocal opposition of the government and private sector. Similarly, civil society sectors were reluctant to advance "extreme" claims that might make their own "more moderate" demands more difficult to achieve, or which might reverse gains already made. It is difficult to measure the extent to which the URNG's failure to advance the autonomy claim may be attributed to strategic versus normative criteria, since participants are 42 Studies in Comparative International Development / Winter 2001 reluctant to admit they opposed autonomy and prefer to blame the government and the private sector} t In any case, the failure of the Maya to secure direct participation effectively removed the claim from the negotiating table. Mexican indigenous organizations were also excluded from the peace negotiations. Although the EZLN is composed mainly of indigenous combatants, indigenous organizations have had to compete with other civil society organizations for a voice within the armed movement and to place their demands on the EZLN agenda (G6mez Nufiez 2000: 180; Ruiz 2000: 27). The main indigenous organizations leading the autonomy movement--the Plural National Indigenous Assembly for Autonomy and the Chiapas State Council of Indigenous and Peasant Organizations~2--were able to offer their proposals to the EZLN leadership prior to negotiations with the government on indigenous rights following "enormous efforts" to get the issue of autonomy on the negotiating table, but they were excluded from the actual negotiations at San Andr6s Larrafnzar in February 1996. In fact, only six of the EZLN's 20 negotiators at San Andr6s were indigenous, and none of these were from Chiapas (Ruiz 2000: 27-28, 44; G6mez Nufiez 2000: 184). lnfluential Ally An influential ally increases the bargaining leverage of the autonomy claimant by taking the part of the armed indigenous group against the government. The ally's actions increase the costs to the government (e.g., strained relations with a vital foreign ally, further warfare with a U.S.-backed guerrilla force) of failing to achieve an agreement. The precise actions taken vary in the two cases. In Panama, the ally pressures the government to enter into peace talks, mediates those talks, and acts as guarantor of the resulting agreement. In Nicaragua the ally provides financial and military resources to armed indigenous combatants. In this case the ally prefers that peace talks do not take place. In Panama, Marsh repeatedly attempted to provoke American intervention on behalf of the Kuna. On 24 February 1925, the Kuna petitioned the American Minister in Panama for protection against the brutality of the Panamanian government, and promised to submit to American rule. Despite these efforts, throughout the rebellion, the United States repeatedly assured Panama that it was in no way fomenting or supporting the Indian rebellion on San Bias (Howe 1998: 263-277). Rather than inspiring American assistance, Marsh created a messy diplomatic situation that the United States could not ignore, given the vital strategic and economic importance of the Canal Zone. His public claims of U.S. backing prompted the U.S. minister John Glover South to visit the site of the rebellion in order to deport Marsh and to discourage the Kuna from further violence. South arrived aboard the war ship USS Cleveland on February 27, five days after the uprising began. It docked off shore between the coast and a ship sent by the Panamanian government with a force of 160 policemen charged with putting down the rebellion, effectively preventing that intervention. The rebel Kuna leaders' persuasive arguments changed South's mind. Believing the Kuna's cause to be just, and that a military campaign against them would be "an expensive failure," with the approval of Washington he Van CoU 43 attempted to negotiate a solution (Howe 1998: 280-286). Historian James Howe describes what happened next: It is unclear just what conjunction of forces, personalities, and circumstances brought the Panamanian government to the negotiating table. On some issues, especially those concerned with canal security, the Americans simply insisted. In this case, however, nothing suggests that South issued an ultimatum, and the Panamanians may simply have decided that if public opinion would allow it, they should follow the path of least resistance. (Howe 1998: 287) U.S. participation was crucial to bringing about peace talks and to securing Panamanian government concessions. It also secured Kuna participation and approval. South later claimed that the Kuna accepted the agreement because he had persuaded them that it consisted of "a public promise made before the whole world, and especially before the United States government, and was in the nature of an assurance to the United States as well as a promise to the Indians themselves" (cited in Howe 1998: 289). U.S. intervention also was decisive in Nicaragua. As part of its strategy to dislodge the Sandinistas, the United States took advantage of the long-standing conflict between the Coast and Managua by putting special emphasis on destabilizing the region (Dfaz Polanco 1991: 191). The U.S. role in the Sandinista-Miskitu conflict is not fully known, since many CIA documents remain classified. Nevertheless, USAID funded the headquarters of the Managua office of MISURASATA and offered other logistical support. After hostilities broke out in 1981, the CIA became the Miskitu's main source of finance and access to weaponry. That year the Reagan administration approved $19 million in direct covert aid for the Contras. Aid increased after thousands of Miskitu youths fled to Honduras to join them. By 1982, U.S. funds had underwritten the formation of headquarters for both MISURASATA and MISURA in Costa Rica and Honduras, respectively. Hale attributes increasing popular support for MISURASATA to the appearance of fancy technology in the hands of the Miskitu by 1983: "it must have seemed foolish not to support the side that had such a powerful ally" (Hale 1994: 153). Once the Sandinistas began to fear that U.S. invasion was imminent, they altered their centralist views of public administration and attempted to negotiate an autonomy regime for the Atlantic Coast (Hannum 1996: 210). In Guatemala, international actors--principally the United Nations and the Group of Friends--pressured the government and URNG to reach an agreement. The government also felt pressure to reach a settlement to improve Guatemala's negative international image, which by the 1990s had resulted in its diplomatic isolation and caused the private export sector to experience difficulty engaging in international trade (McCleary 1996: 103). Throughout the peace talks the United States applied diplomatic and economic pressure--threatening, for example, to suspend tariff access under the Generalized System of Preferences--and offered the carrot of resumed military aid. But this international pressure was not tied to indigenous rights, only to a peace settlement and progress on human rights (Inter Press Service, 13 March 1995). The Clinton administration was mainly interested in resolving human rights cases involv- 44 Studies in Comparative International Development / Winter 2001 ing U.S. citizens (Financial Times of London, 17 May 1995, 11 May 1995). Mexico, in turn, was keen to end the armed conflict in light of the I994 uprising on its Guatemalan border. In Mexico, the international media and human rights monitoring organizations pressured the government to respect the human rights of the mostly indigenous combatants and their civilian supporters, but there is no evidence of international pressure to accept indigenous rights claims. A potential ally at the time peace talks began was the leftist PRD (Party of the Democratic Revolution). However, despite the diffuse support of PRD militants, tensions between PRD and EZLN leaders precluded a firm alliance during the negotiating period. In any case, PRD held a small minority in a national legislature dominated by the PRI and PAN. Both successful cases in the armed struggle negotiating site occurred under unique circumstances that are unlikely to be replicated elsewhere. Nevertheless, the two early examples of indigenous movements gaining autonomy regimes inspired indigenous movements elsewhere and provided two influential models of politico-territorial autonomy. Negotiating Site I!: Constitutional Reform Amidst Legitimacy and Governability Crises In all five countries in this negotiating site, indigenous organizations took advantage of national debates on constitutional reform to present their autonomy claims as part of a solution to deep-seated crises of legitimacy and governability. Only in Colombia, Ecuador, and Venezuela were indigenous organizations able to constitutionally codify an autonomy regime in which indigenous authorities were authorized to exercise public administrative functions and manage state resources in a manner comparable to other subnational, autonomous units of government. Explanations for success in these cases are listed in Table 3. The condition giving rise to this negotiating site is legitimacy and governability crises that are sufficiently severe to generate extreme political instability and convince elites to consider radical solutions to fundamental conflicts. The most important variables explaining the constitutional recognition of ethnic autonomy regimes in this negotiating site are grouped under the two POS factors discussed with respect to the peace talks scenario: (1) the opening of access to decision-making spheres, and (2) the presence of an influential ally. Getting to Radical Constitutional Reform Legitimacy and governability crises were most severe in Colombia and Ecuador. In Colombia, the monopoly on political representation held by the Conservative and Liberal parties generated powerful anti-state armed movements that by 1989 controlled much of the territory. The state's inability to protect citizens from rapidly increasing guerrilla and paramilitary violence, from the increasingly lethal terrorist attacks of the drug cartels, or from human rights violations attributable to state agents, drained legitimacy from the state and Van CoU 45 Table 3 Constitutional Reform Amidst Legitimacy and Governability Crises: Explanatory Variables Failed Cases Successful Cases COLOMBIA CASE ECUADOR VENEZUELA PERU BOLIVIA OPENED ACCESS TO DECISION-MAKING SPHERES DLreclly elected c~nsutucnt assembly yes, 1991 y~,1998 yes, 1999 no yes, 1993 u lmitgcnoes delegat~ pamctlmte directly m assembly 2 elected, 1 appointed 7 MUPP dclegatcs dected (3 mdig~s) 3 guaranteed sea~s, 2 elected not applicable no J Coherent center-left blou allies with Indians yes yes yes no nO u, Popular, dormnant president supports indigenous nghts yes yes w~ksuppon nO INFLUENTIAL ALLY democratic regime. The result was extreme political instability that many at the time believed to seriously threaten the persistence of Colombia as a democracy and as a state. An unprecedented wave of political violence that included the assassination of three presidential candidates forced to the center of the political agenda the convocation of a National Constituent Assembly in 1991 to radically reform the democratic regime. In Ecuador, profound legitimacy and governability crises converged when a national indigenous organization representing 80 percent of the country's Indians (the Confederation of Indigenous Nationalities of Ecuador, or CONAIE) led other civil society organizations in a movement to oust President Abdalfi Bucaram and force the convocation of a constituent assembly. Nearly 15 percent of the country's population participated in mass demonstrations that took place in February 1997 (Andolina 1998: 4). The popular demand to convoke a constituent assembly was expressed at a time when Ecuadorian political institutions had completely lost their authority. The fragmentation, corruption, and lack of representativeness of the political party system, and the outrageous behavior of the president, had provoked a demand from civil society for better representation and for the establishment of citizen rights, particularly for excluded groups. ~3 In Venezuela, a moderately severe political crisis was associated with the disintegration of the bipartisan pact that had governed since 1958 and of the political party system itself amidst corruption scandals and the failure of traditional parties to incorporate new social actors. The inability of the petroleum economy after 1985 to continue to fund generous public spending, two failed military coups in 1992, and the impeachment of President Carlos Andr6s P6rez in 1993 for corruption, shook the foundations of one of the region's most stable 46 Studies in Comparative International Development/ Winter 2001 democratic regimes. The stunning 1998 electoral victory of former coup leader Hugo Ch~ivez intensified a period of political instability that persisted throughout the constitutional reform period. Ch~ivez' main campaign theme was the convocation of a constituent assembly to erase the prevailing party-based political model and construct a more participatory, honest one (Garcia-Guadilla and Hurtado 2000: 15). Thus, in Venezuela, Ecuador, and Colombia, severe crises of legitimacy and governability generated extreme political instability and strong popular support for radical, participatory constitutional reform. Crises of legitimacy and governability were significant but less severe in Bolivia and Peru. In Bolivia, political party elites sought to reform the constitution to address the legitimacy crisis caused by the ascension to the presidency of the third-place winner in the 1989 elections and to resolve a political scandal involving the judicial branch. Pressure for constitutional reform came mainly from within the tiny political elite, which effectively controlled the reform process. In Peru, Fujimori sought to restore democratic legitimacy following his April 1992 "self-coup." Pressure for constitutional reform came mainly from Fujimori, who used the reform to centralize and concentrate his power and legalize presidential reelection, and from the international community, which condemned the "self-coup." In neither case was there an organized popular movement for radical constitutional reform. OpenedAccess to Decision-Making Spheres Two conditions in this subset of cases opened access to decision-making spheres: the convocation of a directly elected constituent assembly and the election or designation of indigenous delegates. Autonomy claimants' direct participation in the assemblies enabled them to threaten not to sign the new constitution. In this negotiating site, brinkmanship consists of the threat that no bargain would occur and that crises of legitimacy and governability would continue or worsen. In the context of extensive media coverage and generally favorable public opinion of indigenous delegates, and the widespread belief that Indians were the most disadvantaged group in society, the withholding of those delegates' signatures seriously would have impaired the legitimacy of the new charter. Directly elected constituent assembly. In four of our five cases constituent assemblies were convened and directly elected. The exception is Bolivia, where President Gonzalo S~nchez de Lozada directed the reform via the only constitutionally sanctioned route--passage of a law by two successive legislatures. Consensus among the three dominant parties secured legislative approval of a draft constitutional reform law during the Paz Zamora regime (1989-1993). Sfinchez de Lozada used his legislative voting majority to secure the second congressional approval in 1994, together with a set of statutory laws with constitutional implications. S~inchez de Lozada had no need or desire to negotiate his vision of constitutional reform with opposition parties or unrepresented social movements (Molina 1997). L4 Indigenous delegates participate directly in assembly. In the three successful cases articulate, charismatic, and experienced indigenous leaders directly represented indigenous movements in constituent assemblies. Nina Pacari in Van Cott 47 Ecuador, Lorenzo Muelas and Francisco Rojas Birry in Colombia, and Noell Pocaterra and Luis Jose Gonzales in Venezuela were particularly effective. Each had more than ten years experience with indigenous politics and commanded the admiration of non-indigenous delegates and the attention of the media. In all three cases indigenous delegates entered the assembly with concrete proposals that had been vetted and approved by their constituents in a series of public assemblies. This was particularly important in Ecuador, where there was no effective presidential leadership of the assembly and few other delegates arrived with coherent reform proposals. Early preparation and strong constituent support allowed indigenous delegates to focus on building alliances. ~5 In Colombia, indigenous candidates placed 19th and 27th among 70 delegates, an enormous surprise given their lack of resources or campaign experience, the minuscule size of the indigenous population, and its low level of voter registration. A third indigenous delegate joined the constituent assembly in April to represent the Quintin Lame guerrillas. ~6 Despite their ideological and strategic differences, the indigenous delegates presented similar proposals with respect to indigenous rights and worked together at crucial moments. 17 On one such occasion the latent brinkmanship scenario described earlier became an overt strategy. During the last week of the constituent assembly, indigenous delegates threatened not to sign the agreement if it did not contain their rights to territorial autonomy. On the last day of the assembly, language was included creating special indigenous territories with self-governing rights (Van Cott 2000:77). In Ecuador, three indigenous delegates and four non-indigenous sympathizers were elected to the 70-seat constituent assembly. All seven represented the Plurinational Pachakutik Unity Movement (MUPP), which was founded by CONAIE and other social movements before the 1996 elections. The indigenous movement worked formally from within the assembly through its delegates, and informally as a social movement organization through a lobbying team composed of CONAIE's experienced leaders and advisors (Nielsen and Zetterberg 1999). MUPP indigenous delegate Nina Pacari presided over the Assembly's First Commission, enabling her to control the timing of debate on collective rights and its submission to the full assembly. In addition, the MUPP simultaneously controlled 10 percent of seats in the fragmented National Congress, which remained in session during the Assembly and passed, at a crucial moment late in the deliberations, ILO Convention 169.~8 In Venezuela, President Ch~ivez fulfilled a campaign promise by reserving three seats for indigenous delegates in the 131-seat Assembly, all three of which were filled by militants of the National Indian Council of Venezuela (CONIVE).~9 The creation of a special status for Indians was unprecedented in Venezuelan history and crucial to establishing the precedent of special treatment Indians would receive in the new constitution. 2~ In addition, two indigenous activists won seats in the ANC elections representing the states of Zulia and Amazonas. The indigenous delegates convinced the assembly to dedicate one of 21 working commissions to the topic of indigenous rights, elevating in status what most participants had deemed to be a marginal issue. All members of that committee were indigenous or allied with the indigenous movement. 48 Studies in Comparative International Development / Winter 2001 During the assembly 300 indigenous representatives attended a two-day CONIVE-sponsored congress in Caracas to vote on a single, unified indigenous proposal, which was presented to the assembly president in a formal ceremony covered amply by national media. The proposal was the fruit of meetings to reach consensus on a unified platform that had begun in March. The indigenous rights commission adopted it with technical changes. 21 In Peru, no representative of indigenous organizations served in the assembly. A working group composed of indigenous leaders, anthropologists, and lawyers met during the assembly and elaborated a proposal on "Cultural Pluralism and Ethnic Rights," but only two of its 19 articles were included in the 1993 constitution: the rhetorical recognition of the ethnic and cultural plurality of the nation and the right to cultural identity, and the right to exercise customary legal jurisdiction, which already was recognized by law (Urteaga 2000: 287-288). In Bolivia, despite the fact that no constituent assembly was convened, the government's ethnic affairs office consulted extensively with indigenous and peasant leaders during the reform process. Indigenous leaders did not participate in formal discussions, which the president moderated during 1993-1994. lnfluential Ally Two types of strategic allies supported indigenous autonomy claims: a coherent center-left bloc within the constituent assembly and a popular president who dominated the reform process and who supported indigenous rights claims. The center-left bloc emerged in all three successful cases and none of the two failed ones. The popular, dominant president emerged in two of the successful cases and in one of the failed cases. Both types of strategic allies partially compensated for the weak voting strength of indigenous delegates within the constituent assemblies. Although international constitutional models were influential, and international experts consulted, external allies had no perceptible influence on the success of autonomy claims. Coherent center-left bloc allies with Indians. In Colombia, Democratic Action M-19 (ADM-19), the party of the demobilized M-19 guerrillas, won nearly one third of the seats in the 1990 constituent assembly elections. This stunning success fractured the long-standing monopoly on political representation enjoyed by Colombia's two traditional parties since the 1950s. Indigenous delegates joined a leftist bloc dominated by ADM-19, which shared leadership of the Assembly with the Liberal and Conservative parties. In the context of fragmentation and open division within both the Conservative and Liberal parties, and a two-thirds decision rule in the final round of voting, the leftist bloc of 27 out of 74 delegates had sufficient strength to be included in all significant substantive and procedural decisions. In return for their support, ADM-19 consistently voted with indigenous delegates on their territorial claims. This alliance was decisive in achieving sufficient support for the Indians' most controversial proposals--those having to do with territorial autonomy. The severe fragmentation of Ecuador's political party system gives minority parties a crucial role in the formation of coalitions. The MUPP's 7 delegates, plus three elected on allied lists, formed the basis of a 25-seat center-left Van Cott 49 minority bloc capable of blocking proposals it opposed when, as commonly occurs in Ecuador, center-right parties were divided along regional lines. The center-right majority was composed of the Social Conservative Party (PSC) (20 seats), Popular Democracy (DP) (10 seats), and several smaller parties and independents (Andolina 1998:31). In the absence of elite consensus on important issues--chief among them, decentralization and the economic model-MUPP delegates exploited opportunities for strategic alliances (Nielsen and Zetterberg 1999: 43-46). After the PSC abandoned the Assembly in May 1998 over the issue of privatizing social security and unfavorable changes in the electoral regime, the center-left bloc completed the constitutional reform under the absolute-majority decision rule. In Venezuela, President Ch~ivez' populist-leftist Patriotic Pole coalition dominated the assembly under electoral rules that converted 62.5 percent of the votes into 94.5 percent of the seats. Most delegates were politically progressive and agreed with CMvez' rhetoric that paying the nation's historic debt toward indigenous peoples was part of the great process of change that was occurring in the country. The indigenous proposal had a strong affinity with the human-rights centered, inclusionary, participatory vision of the president's proposal, to which most assembly members were committed. 22 Opposition to indigenous rights came from the conservative military sector within Ch~ivez' coalition and economic elites outside the Ch~ivez coalition with contradictory interests in the exploitation of natural resources. An intensive four-day negotiating session settled differences between military officers sitting on the Commission on Security and Defense and the Indigenous Rights Commission. Most of the indigenous rights proposal--including the recognition of autonomous indigenous municipalities--passed with 128 votes and 3 abstentions (El Universal, 12 Nov. 1999, p. 1). 2~ In Peru's constituent assembly, no leftist bloc emerged. This is attributable to: the fragmentation of the non-violent left in the wake of the demise of socialism and the Shining Path's selective targeting of alternative civil society and political party leaders in the previous decade; Fujimori's successful effort to cripple labor unions and traditional political parties; and the latter's shallow roots in society and poor performance in office. To protest the president's increasingly authoritarian behavior, the two largest parties decided not to run candidates (Cameron 1994:155-12; McClintock 1993:112-119). The capture of top Shining Path leaders two months prior to the constituent assembly elections contributed further to Fujimori's already robust public support. That support, together with manipulation of the constituent assembly elections and the capacity to outspend rivals by a factor of at least three to one, garnered Fujimori's coalition an absolute majority in the Democratic Constituent Congress that opened on December 30, 1992. 24 In Bolivia, no coherent leftist bloc with which indigenous organizations might have allied existed within the national legislature, whose approval was required twice to pass the Law of Constitutional Reform. The populist parties CONDEPA and UCS were more interested in securing patronage for their militants than promoting ethnic rights. The leftist MBL--part of the governing coalition-was too small to challenge S~inchez de Lozada. Studies in Comparative International Development / Winter 2001 50 Popular, dominant president supports indigenous rights. Three of the four constituent assemblies--Colombia, Peru, Venezuela--are characterized by strong leadership from a sitting president. Colombia's president C6sar Gaviria and Venezuela's Hugo Ch~ivez had a significant electoral 25 and substantive mandate to oversee a radical reform of democratic institutions. Both campaigned on the issue of constitutional reform. Both strongly supported indigenous rights proposals during the assemblies, securing the passage of controversial articles when opposition emerged. In Colombia, President Gaviria supported indigenous rights claims in speeches where he emphasized the importance of the protection of rights to the quality of Colombian democracy. Gaviria incorporated indigenous rights claims in 1990 in a written agreement (Decree 1926) among the major parties establishing the scope of reform (Van Cott 2000: 57). In Venezuela, delegates ambivalent toward indigenous issues demonstrated a personal loyalty to President Ch~ivez, who already had demonstrated a public commitment to indigenous rights by naming the first indigenous cabinet member and guaranteeing three indigenous seats in the ANC. Peruvian President Fujimori also dominated his constituent assembly and enjoyed strong public support, but he opposed indigenous rights proposals and they did not prosper. Ecuador's interim president played a minor role, often at odds with the assembly, and had little influence. In the absence of a presidential ally, Ecuadorian Indians had to rely on their own impressive mobilizational and negotiating skills, and the strategic opportunities created by the PSC's abandonment of the Assembly. In Bolivia, S~nchez de Lozada was receptive to some indigenous claims but not an active advocate of indigenous rights. His vice president, Aymara leader Vfctor Hugo Cfirdenas, was not the champion of indigenous rights observers had expected. Cfirdenas preferred to position himself as a political moderate and to devote his energy to educational reform. Mternative Explanations for Successful Autonomy Claims Three additional variables may have contributed to the success of autonomy claims. These did not vary systematically across all nine cases. Nevertheless, because of their influence in some cases, their explanatory value merits further study, particularly with respect to cases not considered here. Decentralization A strong tendency toward administrative and political decentralization or federalism appears to be weakly correlated with two successful claims (Colombia and Venezuela) and to provide the possibility for future successful claims at the state level in another (Mexico). Decentralization facilitates indigenous autonomy claims by creating a territorial-administrative system in which indigenous autonomy may be inserted as a variant of autonomous subnational units (Corao 1995: 402--407). 26 Constitutional debates on decentralization enabled indigenous representatives to form alliances with local and regional elites who favored decentralization. In Colombia, for example, indigenous delegates on the constituent assembly's Commission on Territorial Organization furthered Van Cott 51 a process of decentralization that had begun in 1988 by allying with Liberal Party representatives on the Commission. The success of decentralization alone cannot be sufficient to achieve recognition of indigenous autonomy, however, since constitutional reform resulted in municipal political and administrative decentralization in Bolivia without recognition of indigenous autonomy claims. Mexico and Venezuela are our only two cases that had federal systems prior to constitutional reform. In Venezuela, although Ch~ivez thwarted demands for greater decentralization of political and administrative authority and strengthened executive powers, he could not resist elite and popular demands to constitutionally recognize the current status of decentralization in Venezuelan l a w - - a quasi-federal system of directly elected governors and mayors (Combellas 2000: 7-8). The federal system formally recognized by the 1999 Constitution provides an auspicious framework for the realization of autonomy aspirations. As indigenous delegate Guillermo Guevara explained: [To] the extent that there exists a true federalism, indigenous peoples and persons inhabiting the most remote zones in the interior of the country can achieve an autonomy that permits them to develop themselves and to evolve toward better living conditions. (Translation by the author; cited in Zerpa 1999:16) Although autonomy claims were denied at the national level, Mexico's federal system provides the potential for successful autonomy claims at the state level (G6mez Rivera 1999). The prospects for this in Chiapas improved dramatically following the leftist PRD's victory in the August 2000 gubernatorial election, which observers believe offers new hope of successful peace negotiations with the EZLN. The new governor, Pablo Salazar Mendiguchia, is an indigenous-rights lawyer who helped negotiate the San Andr6s Accords (CNN internet report, 21 August 2000). Indians in neighboring Oaxaca secured statelevel partial autonomy rights in 1995 (Fox et al. 1999). In Ecuador and Peru no clear push toward decentralization occurred. In Ecuador, highland and coastal elites were sharply divided on the issue of decentralization and reached no consensus. The resulting 1998 Constitution lacks a clear framework for the practical interpretation of Indigenous Territorial Circumscriptions, which are to have autonomous powers under the new charter. In Peru, Fujimori centralized power in the executive in order to consolidate and legitimate his April 1992 self-coup, and to facilitate the imposition of a neoliberal austerity plan and the unfettered use of executive power to fight the guerrillas. He also dissolved regional governments and centralized government administration, thwarting the aspirations of many rural Peruvians, who rejected the new constitution in large numbers (Fernandez Segado 1994: 28; P~isara 1994: 10). In Panama and Nicaragua, autonomy regimes were established as anomalous structures within the larger, centralized organization of politics and administration. Larger debates on decentralization--apart from the ethnic conflict and the historic cleavage between eastern and western Nicaragua--do not appear to have played a significant role in their establishment. Studies in Comparative International Development / Winter 2001 52 Population Size The author considered population size as a possible explanatory variable. Logically, the proportional size of a country's indigenous population might impact success in achieving its goals either (1) because concession to a proportionately smaller population would present less of a threat to the interests of political and economic elites or, (2) because a proportionately large population has more resources (voters, demonstrators) on which to draw in its struggle. Thus, logically, success may be correlated with either a small or a large population. It also is possible that both logics may combine to neutralize any systematic correlation between the size of the indigenous population and the success of autonomy claims in Latin America. Table 4 seems to support the first hypothesis. With the exception of Ecuador, the proportion of indigenous population in the "successful" cases tends to be smaller than in the "failed" cases. The reader should recall, however, that in order to reduce the number of cases, and to be sure to include cases of greatest interest to political scientists, the criteria for inclusion of failed cases among those eligible for consideration under the constitutional reform negotiating site favored countries with proportionately large indigenous populations. All the excluded "failed" cases had indigenous populations below 10 percent. The case selection bias alone may account for the skewed results with respect to population size, since all the other failed cases have small indigenous populations. Extensive field research--including approximately 150 interviews with participants and analysis of contemporaneous newspaper accounts--in four of the cases considered (Bolivia, Colombia, Ecuador, and Venezuela), and secondary research on the others, elicited no evidence giving explanatory weight to either large or small population size. Table 4 Size of Indigenous Population CASE (OUTCOME) Colombia (success) Ecuador (success) Nicaragua (success) Panama (success) Venezuela (success) Bolivia (failure) Guatemala (failure) Mexico (failure) Peru (failure) PROPORTIONAL SIZE OF INDIGENOUS POPULATIONa 3.7 percent 25/43 percent 7.6/5 percent 7.8/6 percent 1.5/2 percent 5 I/71 percent 48/66 percent 9.5/14 percent nationally, approximately 1/3 of population of Chiapas state 38/47 percent a Estimates of indigenous population vary. Where two figures are given, the first is from Deruyttere (1997:1), which cites 1993 data from the Interamerican Indigenist Institute. The second, higher figure is from the web site of the International Labour Organization. Population data for Colombia is from the 1993 national census. Van Co~ 53 Cohesion and Organization of Indigenous Populations Indigenous social movements that had generated a relatively cohesive national-level organization proved best able to take advantage of the constitutional reform negotiating site. All three successful cases in this site had unified national organizations whose delegates participated actively in deliberations on constitutional reform, while the two failed cases lacked such organizations. This variable does not appear to operate under the peace talks scenario, where other variables--such as local military effectiveness--may trump the importance of national-level organizational strength. The organizational cohesion and strength of the national indigenous movement appears to be particularly important in Ecuador, which boasts by far the strongest and most experienced national indigenous organization among our five cases. The greater political power of CONAIE relative to that of other national indigenous organizations discussed here is evident from the fact that only in Ecuador was the indigenous movement a major player in the convocation of the constituent assembly. In February 1997, after the National Congress ousted Bucaram, CONAIE, working with other social movements and the left, demanded the convocation of an assembly within 60 days. The interim Alarcon government stalled the convocation until the end of the year, after preparations for a CONAIE-sponsored "Peoples Assembly" forced the issue to the top of the political agenda. No national-level indigenous organization exists in Bolivia and the indigenous rights movement was weak at the time of the 1993-1996 constitutional reforms. The highland peasant confederation, CSUTCB, created in 1979, was in decline in the wake of harsh structural adjustment policies imposed after 1985 and the emergence of a rival movement to represent peasants through traditional ethnic ayllu federations37 Amazonian Indians, who formed the Confederation of Indians of Eastern Bolivia (CIDOB) in 1982 to defend territorial claims and oppose timber extraction, were also relatively weak. 28 Thus, there was no coherent national actor that could mobilize and credibly speak for the majority indigenous population. This disunity was exemplified in 1996, when CIDOB and several local peasant organizations negotiated an agrarian reform law opposed by the CSUTCB. Peru's indigenous movement is arguably the weakest among our cases. Shining Path guerrillas crippled Peru's incipient movement in the 1980s by executing civic leaders offering an alternative to armed struggle. Coordination between highland and lowland Indians has been delayed by the institution of separate legal regimes in the 1970s and the absence of indigenous identity in the highlands, where an economically focused "peasant" identity prevails and the term indio is considered an insult (Ardito 1997: 20). Peru's indigenous population only gained a national-level coordinating organization in 1999 (the Conference of Indigenous Peoples of Peru [COCCIP]). At the regional level, multiple organizations vie for support of the same population. The Ecuadorian, Colombian, and Venezuelan movements also suffer from severe divisions and face organizational challenges. However, they are capable of unified mobilization at crucial moments and have permanent organizations that can credibly claim to represent a majority of the indigenous population. 54 Studies in Comparative International Development/ Winter 2001 Conclusion T h e p r e c e d i n g d i s c u s s i o n s u g g e s t s that a u t o n o m y c l a i m s s u c c e e d only w h e n i n d i g e n o u s o r g a n i z a t i o n s are able to insert t h e m into larger r e g i m e bargains and w h e n t e m p o r a r y c h a n g e s in the political o p p o r t u n i t y s t r u c t u r e - - o p e n e d a c c e s s to d e c i s i o n - m a k i n g spheres and the e m e r g e n c e o f an influential a l l y - f a v o r i n d i g e n o u s claims. A u t o n o m y c l a i m s are u n l i k e l y to s u c c e e d w h e n they are a d v a n c e d in isolation, outside the c o n t e x t o f a r e g i m e bargain, w h e r e c l a i m ants are not e m p o w e r e d to reject the entire bargain, and w h e r e they l a c k the s u p p o r t o f an influential ally. A p p l y i n g the P O S f r a m e w o r k to the c o n s t i t u t i o n a l r e c o g n i t i o n o f ethnic a u t o n o m y r e g i m e s d r a w s attention to the fluid nature o f political life and to the c a p a c i t y o f social m o v e m e n t s to m o b i l i z e in a r e l a t i v e l y rapid, f o c u s e d m a n n e r to a c h i e v e a s i g n i f i c a n t f o r m a l c h a n g e in their status with r e s p e c t to the state and o t h e r political actors. In the s u c c e s s f u l cases d i s c u s s e d earlier, m o s t favorable c h a n g e s in the P O S w e r e t e m p o r a r y b e c a u s e the larger r e g i m e bargain o c c u r r e d in a relatively short t i m e p e r i o d - - u s u a l l y less than one year. C h a n nels o f access to political p o w e r g e n e r a t e d by c o n s t i t u e n t a s s e m b l i e s and p e a c e talks c l o s e d o n c e b a r g a i n s had b e e n m a d e and public attention shifted elsewhere. Notes l. 2. 3. 4. Research in Bolivia and Colombia in 1997 was sponsored by a Fulbnght doctoral dissertation award. Research in Bolivia in 1998 was funded by the Cordell Hull Fund of the Department of Political Science, University of Tennessee, Knoxville. Research m Ecuador in 1999 and Venezuela in 2000 was sponsored by a University of Tennessee professional development award. I would like to thank Willem Assies. Ruth Berins Collier, Jos6 Antonio Lucero, Katbleea O' Neill, Shannan Mattiace, Sidney Tarrow, Deborah J. Yashar and the anonymous reviewers of this journal for their comments. The UN Sub-commission on the Prevention of Discrimination and Protection of Minorities defines indigenous peoples as follows: "Indigenous communities, peoples and nations are those which, having a historical continuity with pre-invasion and pre-colonial societies that developed on their territories, considered themselves distinct from other sectors of the societies now prevailing in those territories, or parts of them. They form at present non-dominant sectors of society and are determined to preserve, develop and transmit to future generations their ancestral territories, and their ethnic identity, as the bas~s of their continued existence as peoples, in accordance with their own cultural patterns, social institutions and legal systems" Martinez Cobo (1987: para. 379). The descendants of African slaves and European and Asian immigrants rarely have made territorial claims, preferring improved treatment or a zone of "personal autonomy" for their members' religious or cultural practices (Wade 1997: 36-39). The choice of a POS framework is not meant to diminish the importance of identity-construction and expression to the emergence, maturation, and success of indigenous social movements. Identity is one of many tools strategically mobdized by indigenous orgamzations, as well as an autonomous cultural project in its own right. However, I concur w~th Foweraker (1995: 16) that strategic approaches have been under-utilized in explaining the "why" and "how" of social movements, particularly in how the changmg constraints in the political environment enabled historically weak actors to mobilize with unexpected effectiveness since the transition to democracy. Strategic approaches shift the focus to the political system and the state and to how indigenous movements developed over time in relation to changes in the structure of the state, the correlation of political forces, and the emergence of political allies. Van Cott 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. 17. 18. 55 Thus, while acknowledging the importance of identities to indigenous peoples' politics, I focus on factors that have received less attention from scholars. Argentina, Belize, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Ecuador, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Mexico, Nicaragua, Panama, Paraguay, Peru and Venezuela. Uruguay has virtually no indigenous population. In the last 15 years, major constitutional reforms took place in Latin America as follows: Argentina (1984), Bolivia (1994), Brazil (1988, 1994, 1997), Chile (1989, 1994, 1997), Colombia (1991), Costa Rica (1996, 1997), Ecuador (1997, 1998), Guyana (1999), Mexico (1994, 1995), Nicaragua (1987, 1995), Panama (1994), Paraguay (1992), Peru (1993), Uruguay (1997) and Venezuela (1999). Although anthropologists work in all countries of Latin America, most political scientists studying indigenous politics favor the countries with the larger indigenous populations. Law 2 of 1938 recognized the Comarca of San Blas. In 1945 the Kuna and the government created a constitution that formalized the scope of regional governance. In 1953 the Panamanian congress passed comprehensive legislation concerning autonomy rights on San Blas (Howe 1986: 19-20). The Kuna General Congress was recognized as the maximum authority of the Comarca pursuant to Law 16 of 1953. Constitutional recognition was achieved in 1972 (Stavenhagen 2000: 10). Armed conflict erupted in February 1981 after the Sandinistas arrested some 50 MISURASATA leaders. MISURASATA had been formed in November 1979 with Sandinista support to represent the three main indigenous groups on the Atlantic Coast and to indoctrinate the population in Sandinista ideology. The organization soon became an opponent of the government, which was unable to challenge its hegemony in the region, due to the lack of government officials who could speak indigenous languages or English. The 1981 arrests were intended to halt MISURASATA's increasing cooperation with the U.S. Embassy and to prevent the public presentation of MISURASATA's radical territorial demands--covering nearly one third of national territory--which were sure to win widespread support on the coast. Outraged, thousands of MISURASATA supporters fled to Honduras, where they joined ex-Somoza National Guardsmen (Hale 1994: 135). In 1982 internal leadership disputes led to the creation of MISURA. Peace talks with MISURASATA began in October 1984; they were halted in May 1985 in response to pressure on MISURASATA leader Brooklyn Rivera from the United States and other disagreements (Sollis 1989:510-511). They resumed in 1988, after the autonomy law already had been approved. Peace talks with one MISURA leader concluded in an agreement in May 1985. Remaining MISURA leaders, unsatisfied with the agreement continued aggressions against the Sandinistas under the aegis of a new organization, KISAN. I am grateful for the insights of Rachel Sieder and Roderick Leslie Brett, on this point (personal communications, September 2000). The Mexican autonomy movement has suffered from divisions over the geographic scope of autonomy. Within the EZLN, and among indigenous organizations, there is a debate over two models: a multiethnic model based on Nicaragua's multiethnic regions, which would create a fourth level of government between the state and municipality, and a monoethnic model, which would create autonomous units at the community, municipal or regional level. Interviews, Jorge Le6n, Quito, 17 July 1999; Luis Verdesoto, Quito, 3 August 1999. Interviews, Horst Grebe, La Paz, 30 May 1997; Juan Crist6bal Urioste, La Paz, 25 April 1997. Interviews, Myriam Jimeno, Bogot~i, 6 February 1997; Jorge Ledn; Luis Verdesoto. Demobilized guerrillas were allowed to send a representative. Those representing smaller groups, like the Quintin Lame, had "voice" but no vote. Interviews, Crsar Gaviria, Washington, December 1996; Manuel Jos6 Cepeda, Bogot~i, 28 January 1997; Humberto de la Calle, Bogotfi, 20 February 1997. The importance of ratifying ILO Convention 169 is beyond the scope of the argument. Nevertheless, it is worth mentioning that Colombia and Ecuador ratified the convention during their constituent assemblies; Bolivia (1991) and Mexico (1990) did so prior to the emergence of the negotiating site; Peru ratified the convention the year following the 1993 constituent assembly; Guatemala did so in 1996 to fulfill its commitment made in the 1995 Accord on Indigenous Identity and Rights. Other Latin American countries ratifying the convention are Costa Rica 56 19. 20. 21. 22. 23. 24. 25. 26. 27. 28. Studies in ComparativeInternationalDevelopment/ Winter2001 (1993), Honduras (1995), and Paraguay (1993). Argentina signed the convention in 1992, but ratification documents have not been deposited with the ILO. The delegates were chosen to represent the east, west, and south through a series of regional and national indigenous congresses sponsored by CONIVE and its regional and local affiliates. Interview, Janet Kelly, Caracas, 15 May 2000. A group of dissenting, mainly Waytiu, Indians affiliated with the Democratic Action party submitted its own proposal (El Mundo, 13 Oct. 1999, p.3). Interview, Luis Jestis Bello, Puerto Ayacucho, Venezuela, 23 May 2000; Beatriz Bermtidez, Caracas, May 2000. Interview, Maria Pilar Garcia-Guadilla, Caracas, 16 May 2000. Interviews, Luis Gomez Calcafio, Caracas, 15 May 2000; Janet Kelly; Luis Jestis Bello. In addition to Ch~ivez the Indians had a crucial ally in Foreign Minister Jos6 Vicente Rangel, who published the ministry's position on indigenous rights in national newspapers on 9 November 1999. Rangel argued that recognition of Venezuelan Indians as "peoples" would not threaten the sovereignty or territorial integrity of the republic (El Nacional, 9 nov. 1999). Fujimori's coalition won 38 percent of valid votes in compulsory elections for the 80-member assembly, five times more than any other party (The Economist, 28 Nov. 1992, start page 43, via web). Gaviria won more than twice the votes of his closest competitor; Ch~vez trounced his opponents with the largest victory margin in 40 years of democracy. As an adviser to Nicaragua's MISURASATA argued, Indigenous self-determination means simply decentralization. Control by Indians over Indian affairs, lands, and resources, which would not threaten the central government, rather it would, if anything, strengthen it politically, economically, and militarily. (Gonz~les 1997:251, citing unpublished document by geographer Bernard Nietschman.) Interviews, Rodolfo Erostegui, La Paz, 21 April 1997; Carlos Camargo, La Paz, 16 June 1997. Ayllus are collectively owned, discontinuous territories located at differing elevations to allow for more diverse economic production. They are governed by traditional Aymara and Quechua authorities in western highland Bolivia. Interviews, Ivan Arias, La Paz, 3 June 1997; Gustavo Fernandez, La Paz, 9 June 1997; Juan Crist6bal Urioste, La Paz, 25 April 1997. 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