PUC Docket No. 40443 Exhibit C Page 4 of 4 1 of which SWEPCO's 73% share is approximately $986 million. Also, SWEPCO will 2 be required to invest approximately $136 million in transmission as a result of the 3 plant's addition, as explained by Mr. Timothy Hostetler. 4 investment by SWEPCO to $1.122 billion. The estimated amount of allowance for 5 funds used during construction (AFUDC) on SWEPCO's investment is approximately 6 $231 million for the generating plant and approximately $21 million for the 7 transmission facilities, for an overall total cost to SWEPCO of approximately $1.374 8 billion. 9 generating plant and EXHIBIT RVH-2 for the transmission facilities. 10 : Q. This brings the total The development of AFUDC is shown on EXHIBIT RVH-1 for the IN THE FINANCIAL AND COST INFORMATION YOU PROVIDE IN THE 11 FOLLOWING PARTS OF YOUR TESTIMONY, WHAT DO YOU ASSUME 12 CONCERNING THE HEMPSTEAD PROJECT COSTS ATTRIBUTABLE TO THE 13 PROJECTED OWNERSHIP INTERES TS OF OKLAHOMA MUNICIPAL POWER 14 AUTHORITY, 15 ARKANSAS ELECTRIC COOPERATIVE CORPORATION? • 16 A. NORTHEAST TEXAS ELECTRIC COOPERATIVE, AND I assume that they will pay their pro-rata share of costs as they are incurred, and that 17 SWEPCO, will be made whole for whatever costs it incurs on their behalf. 18 Accordingly, the financial and cost information I present below is for SWEPCO's 19 share of the costs alone. 20 Q. HOW DOES SWEPCO PLAN TO FINANCE THE CONSTRUCTION COSTS OF 21 THE 22 TRANSMISSION FACILITIES? PROPOSED PUC DOCKET NO. HEMPSTEAD 11 PROJECT AND ASSOCIATED DIRECT TESTIMONY RENEE V. HAWKINS 50 PUC Docket No. 40443 Exhibit D Page 1 of 4 .._.., PUC DOCKET NO. 33891 PUBLIC UTILITY COMMISSION OF TEXAS APPLICATION OF SOUTHWESTERN ELECTRIC POWER COMPANY 7'.,. FOR CERTIFICATE OF CONVENIENCE AND NECESSITY AUTHORIZATION FOR A COAL-FIRED POWER PLANT IN ARKANSAS SUPPLEMENTAL DIRECT TESTIMONY ON COMMISSIONERS' ISSUES OF JAMES A. KOBYRA, P.E. FOR SOUTHWESTERN ELECTRIC POWER COMPANY APRIL 22, 2008 SECTION Supplemental Direct Testimony EXHIBIT JAK-1-Supp through JAK12-Supp FILENAME PAGE Kobyra Final.doc Exh JAK-l-Supp Turk-Specific Siting Study Process Flow Chart.pdf; Exh JAK-3-Supp Part 1--Pirkey 600 MW PC - JK.rtf; Exh JAK-3-Supp Part 2--Pirkey emails -4-17-08.pdf; Exh JAK-4-Supp -CO2 Production rates.xls, Exh JAK-5Supp -- USC Plants worldwide.ppt; ExJAK-11- Supp - Shaw Contract Escalation Factors.ppt 1-31 32-68 ^UC Docket No. 33891 SWEPCO Exhibit No. 57 ^.^_. PUC DOCKET NO. 33891 I SUPPLEMENTAL DIRECT TESTIMONY JAMES A. KOBYRA '359 51 PUC Docket No. 40443 Exhibit D Page 2 of 4 1 VI. CURRENT TURK POWER PLANT COST AND SCHEDULE ESTIMATES 2 Q. WHAT IS THE CURRENT COST ESTIMATE FOR THE TURK POWER PLANT? 3 A. First, note that the costs presented herein reflect the complete power plant and not just 4 the 73 percent that is owned by SWEPCO. Assuming a start of construction by 5 September 28, 2008, the total (100 percent) capital cost estimate is $1.522 billion. 6 Highly Confidential EXHIBIT JAK-6-Supp is the log of Project Change Requests 7 (PCRs) that have been approved since the project was authorized to proceed. The log 8 shows the original contingency and escalation balance, and how it was allocated to 9 the PCRs. There are two PCRs that make a significant draw on these funds, the 10 execution of the firm priced Engineering, Procurement, and Construction (EPC) 11 contract and the increase in labor estimate for the erection of the boiler and the AQCS 12 with B&W. The latter was recently authorized. 13 The total capital cost estimate, exclusive of Allowance for Funds Used During 14 Construction (AFUDC) has increased from $1.347 billion to $1.522 billion, a 15 difference of $175 million. 16 estimate for a 13-month delay, (2) the PCR changes including the revised target price 17 for the B&W steam generator and AQCS erection scope that I alluded to at the 18 hearing in October, 2007, and (3) a contingency to cover potential escalation in the 19 contract provisions and scope allowances. The value of the contingency is consistent 20 with the way the contingency was established in the original proposal. 21 contingency amount as well as any reductions in the estimated cost of delay, if not 22 incurred, would not be included in the final plant cost to SWEPCO. PUC DOCKET NO. 33891 t t This increased cost estimate includes: (1) a budgetary 20 The SUPPLEMENTAL DIRECT TESTIMONY JAMES A. KOBYRA 52 PUC Docket No. 40443 Exhibit D Page 3 of 4 1 ^ 2 In addition to the $1.522 billion estimated capital cost, the cost for capital . spares, which was not known at the time of my earlier testimony, is estimated to be 3 between $30 and $36 million. Capital spares are major replacement parts that have a 4 long manufacturing duration, and are maintained in inventory to minimize plant down 5 time should a component failure occur during operation. Since the amount of spares 6 is an owner decision, it was mentioned in the self-build proposal, but not included in 7 the proposal estimate. , 8 Q. 9 10 ^ WHAT ARE THE KEY ASSUMPTIONS UNDERLYING THIS COST ESTIMATE? A. The air permit application has been under evaluation by the ADEQ since it was 11 submitted in August 2006. 12 commence until the air permit is received. The cost estimate is based upon an early 13 August 2008 issuance of the air permit. On-site construction of permanent facilities cannot 14 The first key assumption is that the schedule and current estimate for the delay 15 are based upon a September 28, 2008 start. This results in a 13-month delay from the 16 original proposal. 17 commenced on January 11, 2008, when concerns associated with an archeological 18 find on the property were resolved. Site development activities allowed without an air permit re- 19 A second key assumption is that the budgetary estimates received from our 20 two main contractors, Shaw and B&W, are within -0%/+10% when the negotiations 21 for delay claims are finalized. This budgetary estimate was requested and prepared 22 for a September 28, 2008 construction start date. 23 associated with the 13-month delay. PUC DOCKET NO. 33891 21 The delay claims are those SUPPLEMENTAL DIRECT TESTIMONY JAMES A. KOBYRA 53 PUC Docket,No. 404,43 Exhibit D Page 4 of 4 I A third key assumption is that there is no significant event that would cause a disruption in the construction activities once started. 2 3 Q. 4 5 FOR THE TURK PLANT? A. 6 7 The Commercial Operation Date will be third quarter 2012 if construction commences on September 28, 2008. Q. 8 9 WHAT IS THE CURRENT ESTIMATED COMMERICAL OPERATION DATE WHAT ARE THE KEY ASSUMPTIONS UNDERLYING THIS ESTIMATED COMMERICAL OPERATION DATE? A. The critical path schedule, while further refined from the one included in the self- 10 build proposal, has not changed. 11 receipt of a final air permit in the third quarter 2008; receipt of the Corps of Engineers 12 Section 404 Permit by the end of 2008; and transmission system interconnection in 13 December 2010. The key assumptions underlying this schedule are ^ 14 VII. SWEPCO'S CONTRACTS FOR THE TURK PLANT 15 16 Q. CONTRACT? 17 18 HOW MUCH OF THE ESTIMATED COST OF THE TURK PLANT IS UNDER A. Approximately $1.186 billion is either under contract or has been spent through 19 March 31, 2008. Confidential and Highly Sensitive EXHIBIT JAK-7-Supp provides 20 a breakdown of the estimated costs by contract and includes those values that are 21 firm/spent, target/budget, related to the start of construction delay, and contingency 22 needs allocated to each contract. 23 representation of the project costs and allocations to each contract. Confidential and PUC DOCKET NO. 33891 EXHIBIT JAK-8-Supp provides a graphical 22 SUPPLEMENTAI, DIRECT TESTIMONY JAMES A. KO$YRA 54 PUC Docket No. 40443 Highly Sensitive Exhibit E Page 1 of 1 (Public Version) This exhibit contains information that is highly sensitive and will be provided under the terms of the Protective Order (Confidentiality Disclosure Agreement) entered in this case. 55 PUC^ocket No. 40443 c;. ^ -fxhibit F Pa^ 1 of 3 PUC DOCKET NO. 33891 ^' , `;^ . ^,^;, •c' ^,, ^.^^ PUBLIC UTILITY COMMISSION OF TEXAS APPLICATION OF SOUTHWESTERN ELECTRIC POWER COMPANY FOR CERTIFICATE OF CONVENIENCE AND NECESSITY AUTHORIZATION FOR A COAL-FIRED POWER PLANT IN ARKANSAS SUPPLEMENTAL DIRECT TESTIMONY ON COMMISSIONERS' ISSUES OF RENEE V. HAWKINS FOR SOUTHWESTERN ELECTRIC POWER COMPANY ''•"^':;:i S, ^•^^.!.:...^'C APRIL 22, 2008 SECTION FILENAME Supplemental Direct Testimony Exhibit RVH-1-Supp Exhibit RVH-2-Supp Exhibit RVH-3-Supp Exhibit RVH-4-Supp Hawkins Final.doc Moodys SWEP 20080201.pdf Fitch SWEP 20080408.pdf Carbon Principles Diligence Final.pdf (Revised AFUDC)xls PAGE 1-8 9-12 13-16 17-25 26 PUC Docket No. 33891 SWEPCO Exhibit No. 59 PUC DOCKET NO. 33891 1 SUPPLEMENTAL DIRECT TESTIMONY RENEE V. HAWKINS 1 ,3'5S 56 VI. AFUDC UPDATE 1 2 Q 3 4 PUC Docket No. 40443 Exhibit F Page 2 of 3 WHAT IS THE CURRENT ESTIMATE OF AFUDC BASED ON THE REVISED PLANT COSTS THAT MR. KOBYRA DISCUSSES? A. As James Kobyra explains in his supplemental direct testimony, the capital cost of the 5 updated plant construction is $1.522 billion of which $1.111 billion is SWEPCO's 6 portion. Based upon the SWEPCO's share of $1.111 billion, the current estimate of 7 the AFUDC for SWEPCO's share of the Turk Plant is $306 million. The calculations 8 are shown on EXHIBIT RVH-4-Supp. The cost of capital assumption remains 9 unchanged compared to my previous assumption. However, the AFUDC has 10 increased due to the change in the completion date and the additional cost associated 11 with completing the plant. 12 13 VII. CONCLUSION 14 Q. DOES THIS CONCLUDE YOUR SUPPLEMENTAL DIRECT TESTIMONY? 15 A. Yes, it does. PUC DOCKET NO. 33891 8 8 SUPPLEMENTAL DIRECT TESTIMONY RENEE V. HAWKINS 57 PUC Docket No. 33891 EXHIBIT RVH-4-Supp PUC Docket No. 40443 Exhibit F Page 3 of 3 SVVBPCO - BASELOAD FACILITY ALLOWANCE FOR FUNDS USED DURING CONSTRUCTION (AFUDC) CAPITAL STRUCTURE SWEPCO Wei Equhy, Debt (as of 1213112007) Rate of Return Rate 45.0% 55.0% 6•A6ELAAD WITH AFUDC • 2006 • 2011 tt000 CAPITAL YEAR EXPENDITURES MOM . August 2006 2006 September 4,890 October 2006 14,504 Novomber 2 4 ,907 WIP BALANCE . 4,890 19,394 24,324 2007 2007 2007 2007 2007 2007 2007 20D7 9,438 7,942 6,888 18,081 23,658 14,737 9.749 12,2 t5 47.596 55,675 64,934 83,529 107,737 123,156 133,735 146,941 September 2007 12,848 160,910 May June July Monthly Ra os 4.64% 3.38% 821% 0.40% 0.28% 0.68% 0.68% TotalAFUOC . Transfers to . InSarvice Annual Totals 23 59 rr!^ 137 371 514 549 683 830 991 1,120 1,478 2007 23,758 186,141 1,399 2007 12, 941 200,481 1,311 .:,20Q7,7 _,r r:,l,. d^12,^8^^;-;^274.839;',S^d i'.ii.i^^2: .i .a:,.t.:«... . .•.n:!',^.r . .: . . ... .^9. 9$3; 5a .: , 2008 6,110 221,066 1,483 2D08 8,840 231,186 1,169 2008 13,649 2,058 246,005 2008 17,943 268,008 1,821 2008 2008 2008 19,310 19,045 19,746 207,139 308,149 330,004 1,966 2,109 2,259 August 2008 11,410 343,673 2008 September 28,441 374,467 October 2008 12,990 390,020 November 2008 12 004 404,693 .• !. :1I^ D`e.mmtiaf ^14^^. ,.^i 2 /^Ofl^ LL'".^ ^'..1. rrJ !h1324 r.:':418 .`^t ...^r.. 2009 Jan ,0,681 433,049 Feb 2009 13,441 449,454 20D9 March 24,589 477A99 April 2008 25,530 505,898 May 2009 25,856 535,014 2009 June 19,405 558,082 July 2009 23,429 585,331 August 2009 23,200 612,539 September 2009 20,696 837,427 October 2009 25,931 867,122 November 2000 22,689 894,577 6 'ecom' boi•.M1i:':;°-120A9 Va Jan 2010 26,840 758,063 2,353 2,563 2,670 2,770 •' 2r ^,.1:w ..Y ^T i,y^'^ C..^' ^.,- tf,4 ' r ;:2$'09^' 2,964 3,077 3,266 3,463 3,662 3,820 4,0D7 4,193 4,363 4,567 • 4,755 Feb 2010 26,606 March AprB May 786,837 2010 2010 2010 5,355 24,747 21,026 19,340 816,971 843,569 886,703 5,593 5,775 6,947 Juno July 2010 2010 19,857 15,908 894,607 916.640 August September 2010 2010 6,124 0275 16,477 18,818 941,301 968,648 6,444 6,617 October 2010 15,668 908,952 6,770 November 2010 Dacemhaf .• :u . January 2011 February 2011 March 2011 April 2011 May 2011 2011 June July 2011 August 2011 September 2011 October 2011 November 2011 Qs,odnltier...ii:."F•_,20671 .,r.' January 2012 February 2012 March 2012 1 10.75% 6.14% Jan Feb Match April May Juno July August October November p,a' [CthibBr- , Jan Feb March April Weighted Rate 14.2D7 1,009, 929 '7,A , 12,722 1,057,983 12J398 1,077,923 9.576 1, 094,878 9,212 1,111•585 8,744 1,127,938 II A41 1,147,501 7.096 1,162,452 7.095 1,177,504 11.007 1,196,572 5,847 1,210,611), _ 5.395 1,224,293 "Ci.'. `^4.45,.'.+24¢XZS . .;i'. 5,212 1,260,471 13,837 t,282,737 6,485 1,298,003 ^„ 5,15b ' 8,913 7,242 7,379 7,495 7,809 7.721 7,855 7,957 8,081 6,191 8,267 8,361 B,fi3q' 8,628 8,761 8,805 April 2012 4,409 May June July 1,311,297 2012 2012 2D12 6,976 4.559 17,905 9,829 1.324.833 1,351,807 1,370,890 9,069 9,254 August 2012 10,517 1.381,407 September October November DoCimbeF - 2D12 2012 2012 5,689 3,356 3,386 ^'2308^ 1,387,096 1,390,482 1,393,868 TOTAL CONSTRUCTION 1,111.218 ^^ 1, »; N,. , 7.A, a19 . F ,... 'i . tr:9 . 305,735 1,416,963 Plant In Service 305,736 Taft[ AFUDC 1) Cost of Debi based on year end 12/31107 and ROE based upon last allowed return In Arkansas. 26 58 PUC Docket No. 40443 Exhibit G Page 1 of 2 PUC DOCKET NO. 33891 PUBLIC UTILITY COMMISSION OF TEXAS APPLICATION OF SOUTHWESTERN ELECTRIC POWER COMPANY FOR CERTIFICATE OF CONVENIENCE AND NECESSITY AUTHORIZATION FOR A COAL-FIRED POWER PLANT IN ARKANSAS SUPPLEMENTAL DIRECT TESTIMONY ON COMMISSIONERS' ISSUES OF VENITA MCCELLON-ALLEN FOR SOUTHWESTERN ELECTRIC POWER COMPANY APRIL 22, 2008 SECTION FILENAME Supplemental Direct Testimony Exhibit VMA-1-Supp McCellon Final.doc No Electronic File No Electronic File No Electronic File Exhibit VMA-2-Supp Exhibit VMA-3-Supp PAGE 1-30 31-158 159-161 162 PUC Docket No. 33891 SWEPCO Exhibit No. 53 PUC DOCKET NO. 33891 1 SUPPLEMENTAL DIRECT TESTIMONY VENITA MCCELLON-ALLEN -3 i° j 59 PUC Docket No. 40443 Exhibit G Page 2 of 2 1 Q. 2 3 WHAT IS THE UPDATED ESTIMATED COST AND SCHEDULE FOR THE TURK PLANT? A. As James Kobyra explains in his supplemental direct testimony, the updated Turk 4 Plant capital cost estimate is $1.522 billion. This is for 100 percent of the plant. The 5 cost for SWEPCO's 73 percent share is $1.111 billion. 6 estimate was $1.347 billion. The updated estimate excludes the Allowance for Funds 7 Used During Construction (AFUDC). The estimated AFUDC for SWEPCO is $306 8 million, as Renee Hawkins explains in her supplemental direct testimony. Thus the 9 total updated cost for SWEPCO is estimated to be $1.417 billion. (The main driver of 10 the increase in costs is the delay in receiving the air permit from the Arkansas 11 Department of Environmental Quality (ADEQ). The air permit is required to start 12 construction, and the delay in receiving that permit discussed previously in this case 13 has persisted. 14 construction by September 28, 2008 (a 13-month delay over the original schedule). 15 The Turk Plant commercial operation date will be the third quarter of 2012 if 16 construction commences by that date. The previous total plant As Mr. Kobyra explains, this cost estimate assumes a start of 17 Mr. Kobyra explains in detail how he derived the updated cost and schedule 18 estimates. He also explains the three main contracts for the Turk Plant and what the 19 costs are under those contracts, as well as other information about them. 20 Q. 21 22 23 HAS SWEPCO ESTIMATED WHAT THE PROBABLE RATE IMPACT OF THE UPDATED COST ESTIMATE WILL BE ON CUSTOMERS? A. Yes, it has. Donald Moncrief provides such a calculation in his supplemental direct testimony. For a residential customer using 1,000 kWh per month, the estimated PUC DOCKET NO. 33891 7 SUPPLEMENTAL DIRECT TESTIMONY VENITA MCCELLON-ALLEN 60 PUC Docket No. 40443 Exhibit H Page 1 of 2 DOCKET NO. 33891 APPLICATION OF SOUTHWESTERN ELECTRIC POWER COMPANY FOR CCN AUTHORIZATION FOR A COAL- § § § FIRED POWER PLANT IN ARKANSAS § BEFORE THE PUBLIC UTILITY COMMISSION OF TEXAS F i^ ! C O m Cn MAY 12, 2008 DIRECT TESTIMONY ON COMMISSIONERS' ISSUES DARRYL TIETJEN PUBLIC UTILITY COMMISSION OF TEXAS 000001 50 61 PUC Docket No. 40443 Exhibit H Page 2 of 2 PUC Docket No. 33891 IV. 1 2 3 Q. Pa4P 1 1 nf 1 S IMPACT OF THE TURK PLANT ON SWEPCO'S FINANCIAL CONDITION As a general matter, is it reasonable to expect that SWEPCO's financial 4 condition will be negatively impacted if the Turk plant is built? 5 Yes. Given the relative scale of the Turk Plant (further discussed below), SWEPCO's 6 involvement in the construction and ownership of the facility would inevitably result 7 in increased strain on SWEPCO's financial condition. 8 9 Q. Based on SWEPCO's year-end 2006 P.U.C. earnings report, what was the 10 amount of SWEPCO's invested capital at the end of 2006? 11 Schedule III of SWEPCO's 2006 earnings report, included in my testimony as 12 Attachment DT-5, shows a figure of approximately $1.7 billion for SWEPCO's total- 13 company invested capital (i.e., rate base). The report further indicates that the Texas- 14 jurisdictional portion of this amount is $623 million. 15 16 Q. Including the effects of Allowance for Funds Used During Construction 17 (AFUDC), how much would SWEPCO's rate base increase if the Turk Plant 18 were built? 19 Based on Ms. Hawkins' Exhibit RVH-4-Supplemental, SWEPCO's current estimate 20 of additional Plant in Service related to the Turk Plant is approximately $1.4 billion. 21 This figure reflects capital expenditures of $1.1 billion and AFUDC of approximately 22 $306 million.8 23 24 25 26 8 SWEPCO witness James Kobyra's supplemental testimony provides an updated plant construction cost of over $1.5 billion, of which $1.1 billion would be SWEPCO's share. May 12, 2008 Direct Testimony of Darryl Tietjen 62 PUC Docket No. 40443 Exhibit I Page 1 of 2 PUC Docket No. 33891 APPLICATION OF SOUTHWESTERN ELECTRIC POWER COMPANY FOR A CERTIFICATE OF CONVENIENCE AND NECESSITY AUTHORIZATION FOR A COAL-FIRED POWER PLANT IN ARKANSAS § § § § § § BEFORE THE PUBLIC UTILITY COMMISSION OF TEXAS Supplemental Direct Testimony and Exhibits of Jeffry Pollock On behalf of Texas Industrial Energy Consumers ^.: N r^^ a ^` C?` ^• May 2008 r co `s ti x^^ ^ I. POLLOCK tNCt7 RPCJRATIEO 63 PUC Docket No. 40443 Exhibit I Page 2 of 2 Jeffry Pollock Page 15 1 2 3. COST Q 3 WHAT COST ESTIMATE FOR THE TURK PLANT DID SWEPCO USE AT THE TIME OF THE OCTOBER HEARING? 4 A SWEPCO's estimate at the time of the October hearing was $1.347 billion.8 5 Q HAVE THERE BEEN SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE ESTIMATED COST OF 6 7 THE TURK PLANT SINCE THE OCTOBER HEARING? A Yes. Although SWEPCO did not acknowledge that there would be any delays 8 whatsoever until an RFI response just before the October hearing, it now admits 9 that there will be a delay of at least one year. SWEPCO has now provided an 10 estimate for the Turk plant of at least $1.552 billion.9 This increase of over $200 11 million does not include: 12 13 14 15 • Up to $429 million in additional environmental costs that SWEPCO proposed on March 20, 2008 to address EPA and Federal Land Manager (FLM) concerns about the Turk plant's impact. 16 17 • Any costs resulting from any additional conditions imposed by the Arkansas Department of Environmental Quality (ADEQ). 18 19 20 21 • Any costs resulting from the inability to begin construction on September 28, 2008 because of further delays in the Arkansas permitting process or appeals, which SWEPCO has now acknowledged are inevitable. 22 23 • The increase in financing costs on AFUDC as a result of the cost increases and delay. ° It has been a source of some confusion that the total plant cost estimate was $1.347 billion while the cost estImate for SWEPCO's share of the plant cost plus AFUDC and Turk-related transmission investment was $1.374 billion. 9 Supplemental Direct Testimony of James A. Kobyra at 21 (includes capital spares). 3. Cost l J.POLLOCK INCORPORATED 15 64 PUC Docket No. 40443 Exhibit J Page 1 of 2 PUC DOCKET NO. 33891 APPLICATION OF SOUTHWESTERN ELECTRIC POWER COMPANY FOR CERTIFICATE OF CONVENIENCE § § § AND NECESSITY AUTHORIZATION § FOR A COAL FIRED POWER PLANT § IN ARKANSAS § BEFORE THE PUBLIC UTILITY COMMISSION OF TEXAS TEXAS INDUSTRIAL ENERGY CONSUMERS' MOTION FOR REHEARING September 2, 2008 r- -^ ^r .^+m. ,,. Rex D. VanMiddlesworth State Bar No. 20449400 Caren Pinzur State Bar No. 24053709 ANDREWS KURTH LLP 111 Congress Avenue, Suite 1700 Austin, Texas 78701 (512) 320-9200 (512) 320-9292 FAX ATTORNEYS FOR TEXAS INDUSTRIAL ENERGY CONSUMERS 65 PUC Docket No. 40443 Exhibit J Page 2 of 2 Capacity vs. Load - 200 MW New Purchased Power (includes voluntary executed wholesale contracts) 2013 2014 .:. '2015 -,. 2016 5,899 5,899 5,517 5,517 L` ds.w/o:lViinden:andlPrescott"or; optional"ETEC- load; ;. wt March demand projection'. 5,124 5,134 4,677 4,717 Canacit^ Aliove Pe'ak I)emand.;: . 775 765 840 ^ 800 5,821 5,832 5,313 5,359 78 67 204 158 Ca a ' w / & J n r l r , o r P S0 tra^asfersVw! 200 MV^^purc}iased° povwer . ° ' ^R£t^. 41 '#Y .^'+-'1,` Zroac^,Y'Iu's SPF ReQuired Reserve •. . ^K.^,. . V,4 ^, ^.v,;^, .,,, .; , ., ^.. ; ^,^.^;Y Adc^i^ibriaal Cauacitt^Atiove SPP^:Reserve Requirement As discussed above, there are much more economical ways to meet whatever limited need SWEPCO might have five years from now than building a new coal plant that would, by SWEPCO's own admission, double its rate base-especially given SWEPCO's long-standing experience purchasing capacity economically in the wholesale market. III. COST. The Commission's order wisely caps the amount that Texas ratepayers will be required to pay to compensate SWEPCO if the Turk Plant is built as part of rate base 69 The capital cost cap is set at Texas's pro rata share of the current $1.522 billion cost estimate to build the Turk Plant, and the carbon cost cap is set at $28 dollars per ton through the year 2030.70 While these caps are a good start, they do not adequately protect Texas retail ratepayers from the dramatically higher rates they would see for a plant that is not necessary to serve them. Further, they do not protect Texas ratepayers from the cost of environmental mitigation efforts that SWEPCO will be required to undertake at a separate plant in order to receive the air permit for the Turk Plant. Pursuant to PURA § 37.056, the Commission may only grant a CCN if it is "necessary" for the service, accommodation, convenience, or safety of the public. Even if the Turk Plant met some hypothetical need for generation, SWEPCO has not shown that it is "necessary" because 0 Order at 7. 70 Id at 7-8. 19 2 66
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