Voya Perspectives | Market Series | April 10, 2014 Market Insight Western European Banks from a Credit Perspective Spencer Phua, CFA Senior Credit Analyst With Western European economic conditions more stable now than at any other time over the last two years — Russia/Ukraine-related geopolitical issues notwithstanding — we think it would be timely to provide an update on the major banks within the region from the standpoint of a credit investor. In this short study, we present data and our credit views on the largest U.K., French, German and Swiss banks, concluding that various parts of their debt capital structures may represent differing value propositions, subject to specific investment mandates and risk appetites. United Kingdom Wes Mannan, CFA Senior Credit Analyst The most frequently traded U.K. banks in our debt markets are HSBC, Barclays, Lloyds and Royal Bank of Scotland. Figure 1 depicts them in order of total assets; additional breakdowns of these banks’ revenue and earnings can be found in the Appendix beginning on page 9. Figure 1. U.K. Banks by Total Assets $3,000 $ Billions $2,500 $2,000 $1,500 $1,000 $500 $0 HSBC Barclays RBS Lloyds Source: SNL Financial, company filings HSBC is the largest and most diverse of the U.K. banks, with operations spread across most global regions. Despite some legal and regulatory charges during 2013, it generated a substantial $23 billion in pretax earnings on revenue of approximately $66 billion. Barclays has a substantial investment bank in addition to retail and commercial banking. While not as globally diverse as HSBC, it is more geographically diverse than Lloyds or RBS. For 2013, Barclays earned $4.5 billion in pretax earnings, substantially less than HSBC, on revenue near $44 billion. Lloyds is a largely U.K.-focused retail/commercial bank that recently has made strides in improving its financial performance as well as in gaining some measure of independence from the U.K. government. U.K. Financial Investments, which manages the government’s holdings in bailed-out banks, sold a 6% ownership stake of Lloyds in September 2013, leaving it a 33% owner; more government stake sales are anticipated. Due to legal and regulatory charges and restructuring costs, 2013 pretax earnings for Lloyds was only £415 million ($649 million) despite decent core operating performance. Revenue came in at $29 billion. Royal Bank of Scotland has divested various international operations recently and is about to IPO its U.S. regional bank (RBS Citizens). It has some international operations that will get smaller with time, leaving its main focus on the U.K. and British Isles. RBS remains majority owned by the U.K. government as part of its crisis-era bailout and will not likely see its government holding sold or reduced until Lloyds has been divested fully. RBS suffered a large loss of nearly $13 billion in 2013 on revenue of $30 billion; this was due not only to a number of regulatory charges but also to the accelerated disposal of noncore assets. If successful, this plan should lay the groundwork for a better balance sheet in future. I N V E S T M E N T M A N AG E M E N T voyainvestments.com VoyaTM Investment Management was formerly ING U.S. Investment Management Voya Perspectives | Market Series | April 10, 2014 France BPCE is the smallest of the French banks discussed here, with a majority of its revenue stream tied to commercial banking and insurance. BPCE has only modest international exposure, and it has the greatest concentration within its home market relative to other French banks. BPCE generated $6.5 billion in pretax earnings for 2013 on revenue of $31 billion, making it a higher-earning bank than Credit Agricole and SocGen. The most frequently traded French banks in our debt markets are BNP Paribas, Societe Generale, Credit Agricole and BPCE (Banque Populaire/Caisse d’Epargne). Figure 2 depicts them in order of total assets; additional breakdowns of these banks’ revenue and earnings can be found in the Appendix. Figure 2. French Banks by Total Assets Switzerland As you can see in Figure 3 below, the two major Swiss banks — Credit Suisse and UBS — share a common focus on global wealth management and private banking. While assets under management have grown strongly, such a business concentration has operational risks, as both banks have paid penalties for assisting tax evasion. Credit Suisse faces an ongoing U.S. investigation of this matter. Figure 3. Swiss Banks Are Focused on Wealth Management and Private Banking 2,000 Source: SNL Financial, company filings UBS Invested Assets 2013 1,500 $ Billions BNP Paribas is the largest of the French banks, with a geographically diversified revenue stream and operations spread across most global regions. Despite some legal and restructuring charges during the year, BNP made a solid $11 billion in 2013 pretax income on revenue of $52 billion. Wealth Management Americas 1,000 Societe Generale has a substantial domestic and international retail bank. While not as large as BNP in terms of total assets, SocGen is less concentrated in France and more pan-European in its revenue stream; outside of Europe, however, its international diversification is lower than BNP Paribas. SocGen earned $4.06 billion pretax in 2013, less than BNP and BPCE but ahead of Credit Agricole. Its revenue came in at $31 billion. 0 1,500 Wealth Management Emerging Markets Wealth Management Asia Pacific 500 Invested Assets Wealth Management Europe Wealth Management Switzerland Global Asset Management Credit Suisse Assets Under Management 2013 1,200 $ Billions Credit Agricole has very healthy revenue diversification across its business lines relative to other French banks. However, its geographic diversification is low, with the vast majority of revenue coming from domestic and other EU sources. Its small investment banking operation mitigates its risk profile. Though the $3.9 billion pretax Credit Agricole earned in 2013 lagged BNP and SocGen, it represented a significant improvement from the $2.8 billion loss reported in 2012. It reported revenue of $23 billion last year. 900 600 300 0 Wealth Management Switzerland Assets Under Management Source: Company filings 2 Wealth Management Americas Wealth Management EMEA Corp & Institutional Wealth Management Asia Pacific Non Strategic CS Asset Management Voya Perspectives | Market Series | April 10, 2014 Figure 4. Core Western European Banks — Earnings and Capitalization Trends UBS has de-risked its balance sheet and business mix in recent years, with a reduced emphasis on volatile investment banking and trading; wealth management will form the mainstay of a more focused UBS in future. The company generated pretax income of $3.5 billion in 2013, as it was forced to allocate about $4 billion to legal regulatory charges and other one-off negative items as its business mix was being rightsized. Revenue came in at $30 billion. Return on Assets ROAA 2012Y (%) 0.8% ROAA 2013Y (%) 0.6 0.4 0.2 Credit Suisse is currently undergoing a restructuring exercise to downsize some aspects of its fixed income business. Its investment bank is seen as just outside the top tier globally but still fairly competitive. Credit Suisse posted $5.4 billion in pretax earnings in 2013 on revenue of $26 billion, reflecting steady performance in private banking but somewhat more inconsistent results in its investment bank. 0.0 -0.2 -0.4 HSBC BNP Paribas Deutsche Bank Barclays Societe General Credit Agricole SA -0.6 Lloyds UBS Groupe Banking BPCE Group Credit Suisse Royal Bank of Scotland Group -0.8 Germany Basel III Common Equity Tier 1 Ratio Deutsche Bank is Germany’s largest bank and its only one with strong global diversification. The corporate banking and securities segment (i.e., investment banking) is the largest source of revenue, which came in at $42 billion in for 2013. Pretax income in 2013 was only $2.75 billion, low for DB’s size relative to historical performance, reflecting litigation, restructuring costs and a number of other adjustments. 10 8 6 4 In terms of earnings, HSBC, Credit Suisse, BNP and BPCE are among the more consistent earners over the last two years, as shown in Figure 4. While SocGen, Barclays and Deutsche Bank also posted positive returns over the last two years, they remain well below the top performing group in terms of return on assets. UBS and Credit Agricole reported losses in 2012 but have since returned to profitability in 2013. Lloyds and RBS both reported two consecutive years of negative returns. 2 0 Credit Ranking Given the various fundamental indicators we have discussed as well as our observation of asset quality performance over the years (omitted for reasons of brevity), we rank these banks as follows based on our view of their likely credit strength going forward. 7. BNP 8. Barclays 3. UBS 9. Lloyds 4. Credit Suisse 10. Deutsche Bank 5. Credit Agricole 11. Royal Bank of Scotland Deutsche UBS Bank Credit HSBC Suisse RBC Lloyds Barclays Credit SOCGEN BNP Source: SNL Financial, company filings Meanwhile, the best capitalized group — at better than 11% Basel III Common Equity Tier 1 capitalization — includes UBS and Credit Agricole. Between 10–11% lie Credit Suisse, HSBC, Lloyds, SocGen, BNP and BPCE while the sub-10% category includes Deutsche, Barclays and RBS in descending order. 2. BPCE 2013 12 Profitability and Capital 1. HSBC 2012 14 6. SocGen 3 Agricole BPCE Voya Perspectives | Market Series | April 10, 2014 Relative Value Commentary: Senior Credit-Default Swaps and BNP offers little relative value. HSBC provides some incremental value compared with the tightest-trading names, though spreads reflect some taint from the bank’s emerging markets operations; we still consider HSBC a strong global bank, and expect its emerging market exposure to be well managed. The spread on Lloyds’ CDS is only 5 basis points wider than HSBC, while we have the former ranked eight notches below the latter in terms of credit strength; as such, we see little relative value in Lloyds senior CDS. In this section we use five-year credit default swaps to assess the relative value in the senior part of the capital structure for the core Western European banks. As you can see in Figure 5, five-year CDS issued by UBS, Credit Suisse and BNP are the three tightest trading instruments. Given that these issuers are not in the top two of our credit rankings (and BNP comes in only seventh), we believe the senior-level CDS of UBS, Credit Suisse Figure 5. Core Western European Banks — Tighter CDS Spreads Source: Barclays Live 4 Voya Perspectives | Market Series | April 10, 2014 Figure 6 looks at the issuers at the wider end of the spread spectrum. Deutsche and Credit Agricole swaps are trading at similar spread levels, but Credit Agricole represents better value given our higher credit ranking. Similarly, with a 3 basis point gap between SocGen and Barclays CDS spreads, there is better value in SocGen given our favorable credit ranking. RBS is not only trading at the widest levels of the banks in our analysis — 13 basis points behind SocGen and 28 basis points behind Deutsche Bank — it is also the weakest in terms of our current credit assessment. While our ranking of credit strength is in line with RBS’s cheap trading level, we would argue that the bank has room to tighten — to perhaps 10 basis points wider than Deutsche eventually — assuming its efforts to repair its balance sheet succeed. Thus, RBS is a credit story whose relative value is yet to be realized. Figure 6. Core Western European Banks — Wider CDS Spreads Source: Barclays Live 5 Voya Perspectives | Market Series | April 10, 2014 Relative Value Commentary: Cash Instruments For HSBC and BPCE — our top two credit picks — we compare their more recently issued five-year notes: HSBC 2.625% notes due September 2018 versus BPCE 2.5% notes due December 2018 (shown in Figure 7). Despite HSBC being the better credit in our view, the roughly 30 basis point spread between their 2018 bonds favors BPCE in relative-value terms. Figure 7. HSBC and BPCE — 2018 Senior Debt Source: Barclays Live Looking at the two Swiss banks in Figure 8, we note that UBS senior debt trades about 2 basis points wide of a similar Credit Suisse issue (UBS 4.875% 2020 OAS 93 versus Credit Suisse 4.375% 2020 OAS 91). With its higher capitalization, we consider UBS to offer slightly better relative value. In subordinated contingent convertible securities (CoCos)1, UBS 4.75% 2023 (callable 2018) CoCos offer a yield to worst of 4.2% at $102, which compares less favorably to Credit Suisse 6.5% 2023 CoCos with a yield to worst of 5.1% at $110. Both of these CoCos have low-trigger 5% and below trigger structures. We conclude that in subordinated securities, UBS’s higher capitalization and the specific shorter callable structure of this UBS subordinate bond explain its lower yield to worst versus Credit Suisse. 1 “CoCos” are junior subordinated bonds that can be written down or converted into equity should capital ratios hit a predetermined trigger or should the bank be deemed non-viable. The conversion or write down should help recapitalize the bank. CoCos form an increasingly important part of European banks’ capital structures. 6 Voya Perspectives | Market Series | April 10, 2014 Figure 8. UBS and Credit Suisse — 2020 Senior Debt Source: Barclays Live Among the three French banks in the middle of our credit ranking, BNP trades the tightest in the five-year senior space, with both SocGen and Credit Agricole about 3 basis points wider. Since we rank BNP behind the other two in terms of credit strength, BNP provides lower relative value. Figure 9. BNP, SocGen and Credit Agricole — 2018 Senior Debt Source: Barclays Live 7 Voya Perspectives | Market Series | April 10, 2014 Subordinated debt trading levels among the weaker names in our credit ranking validates our analysis. Deutsche Bank 4.296% 2028 (subs callable 2023) trades at an OAS 266 basis points, measurably wider than similar issues from higher-ranked Lloyds and Barclays, though some of this reflects the call structure of this particular bond (noncallable for ten years). RBS 6.125% 2022 (subordinated) trade at an OAS of 302 bps, the widest of the instruments we are comparing here, which corresponds with last place in our credit ranking. However, Barclays 5.14% 2020 (subordinated) at an OAS of 191 bps trades 6 bps wide to Lloyds 6.5% 2020 (subordinated) OAS 185; Barclays subordinated bonds provide incrementally better value than Lloyds given our assessment of relative credit strength. Figure 10. Barclays, Lloyds, Deutsche Bank and RBS — Subordinated Debt Source: Barclays Live Conclusion These major European banks are important financial institutions in both a European and a global context. Credit investors looking to participate in the ongoing economic recovery in Western Europe can maximize return subject to their risk preferences by selecting bond investments that most directly suit their mandates. 8 Voya Perspectives | Market Series | April 10, 2014 Appendix Figure 11. 2013 Revenue and Earnings — HSBC Business Line Revenue Mix 2013 ($ millions) $5,651 Retail Banking and Wealth Management $2,439 $26,740 Commercial Banking Global Banking & Markets $19,176 Global Private Banking Other $16,365 Geographic Revenue Mix 2013 ($ millions) Europe $10,568 $20,967 $8,803 $2,503 $13,203 $11,978 Hong Kong Rest of Asia-Pacific Middle East and North Africa North America Latin America Pretax Income Mix 2013 ($ millions) Other Global Private Banking Commercial Banking and Markets Commercial Banking Retail Banking and Wealth Management Net Income before Taxes -5,000 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 Source: SNL Financial, company filings 9 Voya Perspectives | Market Series | April 10, 2014 Figure 12. 2013 Revenue and Earnings — Barclays Business Line Revenue Mix 2013 ($ millions) $(538) $2,877 Retail and Business Banking Corporate and Investment Banking Wealth and Investment Management Head Office Functions and Other Operations $19,701 $21,666 Geographic Revenue Mix 2012 ($ millions) $1,753 $11,781 $7,148 $12,403 $6,048 UK Europe Americas Africa and the Middle East Asia Pretax Income Mix 2013 ($ millions) Head Office Functions and Other Operations Wealth and Investment Management Corporate and Investment Banking Retail and Business Banking Net Income before Taxes -1,000 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 Source: SNL Financial, company filings 10 4,000 5,000 Voya Perspectives | Market Series | April 10, 2014 Figure 13. 2013 Revenue and Earnings — Lloyds Business Line Revenue Mix 2013 ($ millions) $2,780 $421 Retail Commercial Banking $4,191 $13,997 Wealth, Asset Finance and International Insurance Other $8,032 Pretax Income Mix 2013 ($ millions) Other Insurance Wealth, Asset Finance and International Commercial Banking Retail Net Income before Taxes -1,000 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 Source: SNL Financial, company filings 11 6,000 Voya Perspectives | Market Series | April 10, 2014 Figure 14. 2013 Revenue and Earnings — RBS $408 Business Line Revenue Mix 2013 ($ millions) $(541) $5,197 $7,724 $4,676 $6,989 $1,363 $2,891 $1,710 UK Retail UK Corporate Wealth International Banking Ulster Bank US Retail & Commercial Markets Central items Non-Core Pretax Income Mix 2013 ($ millions) RFS Holdings minority interest Reconciling items Non-core Central Items Markets U.S. Retail & Commercial Ulster Bank International Banking Wealth UK Corporate UK Retail Net Income before Taxes -14,000 -12,000 -10,000 -8,000 -6,000 -4,000 -2,000 0 2,000 Source: SNL Financial, company filings 12 4,000 Voya Perspectives | Market Series | April 10, 2014 Figure 15. 2013 Revenue and Earnings — BNP Paribas Business Line Revenue Revenue Mix Mix2013 2013($($ millions) millions) $(541) $408 $(339) UK Retail $5,197 $11,504 UK Corporate Retail Banking $7,724 Wealth Investment Solutions International Banking Ulster Bank $4,676 Corporate and Investment US Retail & Commercial Banking $8,425 $31,968 $6,989 Markets $1,363 Other Activities Central items $2,891 Non-Core $1,710 Geographic Revenue Mix 2013 ($ million) Geographic Revenue Mix 2013 ($ millions) $3,246 $3,513 $5,116 $39,683 Domestic Markets Other European Countries Americas Asia and Pacific Pretax Income Mix 2013 ($ millions) Other Activities Corporate and Investment Banking Investment Solutions Retail Banking Net Income before Taxes -4,000 -2,000 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 Source: SNL Financial, company filings 13 10,000 12,000 Voya Perspectives | Market Series | April 10, 2014 Figure 16. 2013 Revenue and Earnings — Societe Generale Business Line Revenue Revenue Mix Mix2013 2013($($ millions) millions) $(541) $408 $(339) UK Retail $5,197 $11,504 UK Corporate Retail Banking $7,724 Wealth Investment Solutions International Banking Ulster Bank $4,676 Corporate and Investment US Retail & Commercial Banking $8,425 $31,968 $6,989 Markets $1,363 Other Activities Central items $2,891 Non-Core $1,710 Geographic Revenue Mix 2013 ($ millions) $1,490 $179 $1,636 $1,660 $13,834 $11,521 France Europe Americas Asia Africa Oceania Pretax Income Mix 2013 ($ millions) Corporate Center Global Banking and Investor Solutions International Retail Banking & Financial Services French Retail Banking Net Income before Taxes -3,000 -2,000 -1,000 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 Source: SNL Financial, company filings 14 4,000 5,000 Voya Perspectives | Market Series | April 10, 2014 Figure 17. 2013 Revenue and Earnings — Credit Agricole Business Line Revenue Mix 2013 ($ millions) $(2,889) French Retail Banking $5,061 International Retail Banking $4,774 $3,235 Savings Management Specialised Financial Services Corporate and Investment Banking $4,274 Corporate Centre $6,813 Geographic Revenue Mix 2013 ($ millions) $1,054 $919 $6,938 $52 $244 $555 $649 France (including overseas departments and territories) Other European Union countries $10,857 Other European countries North America Central and South America Africa and Middle East Asia-Pacific (ex. Japan) Japan Pretax Income Mix 2013 ($ millions) Corporate Center Corporate and Investment Banking Specialized Financial Services Savings Management International Retail Banking French Retail Banking Net Income before Taxes -4,000 -3,000 -2,000 -1,000 0 1,000 2,000 Source: SNL Financial, company filings 15 3,000 4,000 Voya Perspectives | Market Series | April 10, 2014 Figure 18. 2013 Revenue and Earnings — BPCE Business Line Revenue Mix 2013 ($ millions) $(801) $2,195 Commercial Banking & Insurance Wholesale Banking, Investment Solutions & SFS $8,497 $20,423 Equity Interests Activities managed on a runoff basis and other businesses Geographic Revenue Mix 2013 ($ millions) $1,054 $2,428 $1,398 France Other European countries North America Rest of World $25,434 Pretax Income Mix 2013 ($ millions) Activities managed on a run-off basis and other businesses Equity Interests Wholesale Banking Investment Solutions & SFS Commercial Banking & Insurance Net Income before Taxes -2,000 -1,000 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 Source: SNL Financial, company filings 16 6,000 7,000 Voya Perspectives | Market Series | April 10, 2014 Figure 19. 2013 Revenue and Earnings — Deutsche Bank Business Line Revenue Revenue Mix Mix2013 2013($($ millions) millions) $(801) $1,177 $2,195 $12,683 $18,092 $8,497 $20,423 Corporate Banking Commercial Banking&& Insurance Securities Global Transaction Banking Wholesale Banking, Deutsche Asset and &Wealth Investment Solutions SFS Management Equity PrivateInterests & Business Clients Activities on aUnit runNon-Coremanaged Operations off basis and other businesses $6,288 $5,404 Business Line Geographic Revenue Revenue MixMix 20132013 ($ millions) ($ millions) $1,177 $4,766 $16,035 $18,092 $12,683 $11,035 $6,288 Corporate Banking & Securities Germany Global Transaction Banking Europe, Middle East and Deutsche Africa Asset and Wealth Management Americas (primarily Private Business Clients United &States) Asia/Pacific Non-Core Operations Unit $12,798 $5,404 Pretax Income Mix 2013 ($ millions) Non-Core Operations Unit Private & Business Clients Deutsche Asset and Wealth Management Global Transaction Banking Corporate Banking & Securities Net Income before Taxes -5,000 -4,000 -3,000 -2,000 -1,000 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 Source: SNL Financial, company filings 17 Voya Perspectives | Market Series | April 10, 2014 Figure 20. 2013 Revenue and Earnings — UBS Geographic Revenue Mix 2012 ($ millions) Business Line Revenue 2013 ($ millions) Business Line Revenue MixMix 2013 ($ millions) $1,177 $2,088 $1,748 $3,300 $4,073 $12,683 $8,173 $10,313 $18,092 $9,280 $11,778 $6,288 $7,085 Corporate Banking & Wealth Management Americas Securities WealthTransaction Management Global Banking Switzerland Americas Deutsche Asset and Wealth Investment Asia PacificBank Management Private & Business Clients Retail & Corporate Europe, Middle East and Non-Core Africa Operations Unit Global Asset Management $5,404 Business Line Revenue ($ millions) Business Line Revenue MixMix 20132013 ($ millions) $1,177 $2,088 $4,073 $12,683 $8,173 $18,092 $9,280 $6,288 Corporate Banking & Wealth Management Securities WealthTransaction Management Global Banking Americas Deutsche Asset and Wealth Investment Bank Management Private & Business Clients Retail & Corporate Non-Core Operations Unit Global Asset Management $7,085 $5,404 Pretax Income Mix 2013 ($ millions) Corporate Center Global Asset Management Retail & Corporate Investment Bank Wealth Managment Americas Wealth Managment Net Income before Taxes -5,000 -4,000 -3,000 -2,000 -1,000 0 1,000 2,000 Source: SNL Financial, company filings 18 3,000 4,000 Voya Perspectives | Market Series | April 10, 2014 Figure 21. 2013 Revenue and Earnings — Credit Suisse Business Line Revenue Revenue Mix Mix2013 2013($($ millions) millions) $1,177 $690 $12,683 $18,092 $14,517 $13,622 Corporate Banking & Securities Private Banking & Wealth Management Global Transaction Banking Investment Banking Deutsche Asset and Wealth Management Noncontrolling interests Private Business Clients without& SEI Non-Core Operations Unit $6,288 $5,404 Geographic Revenue Mix 2013 ($ millions) $3,277 $7,796 Switzerland EMEA Americas Asia Pacific $10,387 $6,679 Pretax Income Mix 2013 ($ millions) Noncontroling interests without SEI Corporate Center Investment Banking Private Banking & Wealth Managment Net Income before Taxes -2,000 -1,000 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 Source: SNL Financial, company filings 19 5,000 6,000 Voya Perspectives | Market Series | April 10, 2014 This commentary has been prepared by Voya Investment Management for informational purposes. Nothing contained herein should be construed as (i) an offer to sell or solicitation of an offer to buy any security or (ii) a recommendation as to the advisability of investing in, purchasing or selling any security. Any opinions expressed herein reflect our judgment and are subject to change. Certain of the statements contained herein are statements of future expectations and other forward-looking statements that are based on management’s current views and assumptions and involve known and unknown risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results, performance or events to differ materially from those expressed or implied in such statements. Actual results, performance or events may differ materially from those in such statements due to, without limitation, (1) general economic conditions, (2) performance of financial markets, (3) interest rate levels, (4) increasing levels of loan defaults, (5) changes in laws and regulations and (6) changes in the policies of governments and/or regulatory authorities. The opinions, views and information expressed in this commentary regarding holdings are subject to change without notice. The information provided regarding holdings is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Fund holdings are fluid and are subject to daily change based on market conditions and other factors. Past performance does not guarantee future results. ©2014 Voya Investments Distributor, LLC • 230 Park Ave, New York, NY 10169 CMMC-PHUA 041714 • 9302 RETIRE ME NT | INV ESTM EN TS | I N S U R A N C E voyainvestments.com
© Copyright 2026 Paperzz