MEMORANDUM
TO:
Leslie Lax, Randy Sunderman
FROM:
Barb Justason, Principal
Justason Market Intelligence Inc.
SUBJECT:
Kamloops-North Thompson poll
DATE:
26 April 2017
We are pleased to provide this written outline of the findings of a poll conducted April 21
through 24 in the British Columbia provincial electoral riding of Kamloops-North Thompson.
METHODOLOGY
Justason Market Intelligence surveyed a stratified random sample of 239 residents who are
eligible to vote in the provincial electoral riding of Kamloops-North Thompson. Fielding was
completed by means of touchtone response telephone interviews. Random digit dialling (RDD)
allowed for the inclusion of listed and unlisted landline and mobile phone numbers. Final data
were weighted to match the most recently available age and gender statistics for the area (per
2011 Canadian census).
The final weighted sample of 200 reports margin of error of ±6.9 percentage points 19 in 20
times the study is repeated. The base of 173 decided voters reports margin of error of ±7.5
percentage points 19 in 20 times.
RESULTS
ELECTION ISSUES
Among a list of election issues, riding residents identify lack of family physicians or doctors as
their top election issue, followed closely by jobs and the economy.
Lack of family physicians or doctors
Jobs and the economy
Environment
Affordable housing
Something else
39%
31%
9%
4%
17%
1/4
JUSTASON MARKET INTELLIGENCE INC.
Fifth Floor 1080 Howe St. #503, Vancouver, British Columbia V6Z 1V8, Canada
Barb Justason +1 604 783 4165 Geoff Bird +1 604 638 1121
JMI.co
JustasonMI.com
Groups more likely to identify lack of physicians as their top election issue include:
•
•
•
Residents aged 65 and older (49%);
Those residing within the City of Kamloops (42% vs 22% among those in more rural parts
of the riding);
BC NDP supporters (53% vs 28% and 29% among BC Liberal and BC Green supporters)
Those more likely to identify jobs and the economy as their top issue include:
•
•
Residents aged 45 to 64 years (38%); and
BC Liberal supporters (51% vs 13% and 14% among BC NDP and BC Green supporters)
Environment is identified as a top election issue by 32% of BC Green supporters. By comparison,
5% or fewer BC Liberal and BC NDP supporters cite environment as their top election concern.
PARTY SUPPORT
In the upcoming May 9 election, the plurality decided voters will support the BC Liberals’ Peter
Milobar (47%). A distant second is the BC NDP’s Barb Nederpel (31%) and, in third position, the
BC Green Party’s Dan Hines (15%).
Decided voters
BC Liberals, Peter Milobar
BC NDP, Barb Nederpel
BC Green Party, Dan Hines
Communist Party of BC, Peter Kerek
47%
31%
15%
8%
How WOMEN would vote
BC NDP, Barb Nederpel
BC Liberals, Peter Milobar
BC Green Party, Dan Hines
Communist Party of BC, Peter Kerek
42%
40%
16%
3%
How MEN would vote
BC Liberals, Peter Milobar
BC NDP, Barb Nederpel
BC Green Party, Dan Hines
Communist Party of BC, Peter Kerek
52%
21%
14%
13%
2/4
JUSTASON MARKET INTELLIGENCE INC.
Fifth Floor 1080 Howe St. #503, Vancouver, British Columbia V6Z 1V8, Canada
Barb Justason +1 604 783 4165 Geoff Bird +1 604 638 1121
JMI.co
JustasonMI.com
BC Liberal support: Support for the BC Liberals is highest among those reporting jobs and the
economy their top election issue.
Voter intention among those whose top election issue is
JOBS AND THE ECONOMY:
BC Liberals, Peter Milobar
70%
BC NDP, Barb Nederpel
12%
Communist Party of BC, Peter Kerek
12%
BC Green Party, Dan Hines
6%
Demographically, support for the BC Liberals is highest among decided voters who are:
• Men (52%* vs 40% among women)
• Voters 45 years and older:
o 18 to 44 years: 31%
o 45 to 64 years: 57%
o 65+ years: 52%
BC NDP support: If an election were held only among residents concerned about the lack of
doctors, the BC NDP would have the edge.
Voter intention among those whose top election issue is
LACK OF DOCTORS:
BC NDP, Barb Nederpel
BC Liberals, Peter Milobar
BC Green Party, Dan Hines
Communist Party of BC, Peter Kerek
44%
36%
12%
8%
Demographically, women are twice as likely as men to support the BC NDP (42% vs 21% men
who would vote BC NDP).
BC Green Party support: Support for the BC Green candidate is drawn more from rural voters
(29% versus 12% among urban voters)
STRENGTH OF SUPPORT
Two-thirds (66%) of decided voters describe themselves as strong supporters of their candidate
and party. Nearly three-in-ten (28%) may change their vote.
The BC Liberals and BC NDP are inclined to garner “strong” support for their party and
candidate—75% and 74% voting for these parties are strong supporters. On the other hand, the
BC Green Party candidate has garnered strong support from just one-third of Green voters
(36%). Fully half (50%) of current Green party votes are potentially mobile.
3/4
JUSTASON MARKET INTELLIGENCE INC.
Fifth Floor 1080 Howe St. #503, Vancouver, British Columbia V6Z 1V8, Canada
Barb Justason +1 604 783 4165 Geoff Bird +1 604 638 1121
JMI.co
JustasonMI.com
Support strength among
BC LIBERAL VOTERS
Strong supporter
May change vote
Unsure
75%
21%
4%
Support strength among
BC NDP VOTERS
Strong supporter
May change vote
Unsure
74%
26%
1%
Support strength among
BC GREEN VOTERS
Strong supporter
May change vote
Unsure
36%
50%
14%
SECOND CHOICE
The BC Green party candidate, Dan Hines, emerges as the second choice for the largest number of
voters in this riding.
BC Green Party, Dan Hines
BC Liberals, Peter Milobar
BC NDP, Barb Nederpel
Communist Party of BC, Peter Kerek
Not sure
38%
21%
16%
5%
20%
Nearly three-in-ten (28%) of BC Liberal supporters select BC Greens as their second choice. Just
11% would choose the BC NDP.
An even higher proportion (58%) of BC NDP voters mark BC Green as their second choice, far
more than would select the BC Liberals as their second choice.
*Denotes a directional difference that may prove statistically significant at a larger sample size.
4 /4
JUSTASON MARKET INTELLIGENCE INC.
Fifth Floor 1080 Howe St. #503, Vancouver, British Columbia V6Z 1V8, Canada
Barb Justason +1 604 783 4165 Geoff Bird +1 604 638 1121
JMI.co
JustasonMI.com