Shipping Intelligence Weekly
28-Aug-2015
ClarkSea Index
25
$13,491
$,000/day
ISSN: 1358-8028
This Week's Analysis (see Back Page)
Going West In The East? The Story Of China's
Industrial Growth And Import Boom
20
Vessel Charter Rates This Week…
15
1 Year VLCC TC Rate… $48,000/day
|
1 Year Capesize TC Rate…
$10,625/day
$20,000/day
|
6-12m 2750 TEU TC Rate…
$9,750/day
1 Year MR TC Rate…
10
Jul-15
Feb-15
Apr-14
Sep-14
Jun-13
Nov-13
Jan-13
Aug-12
Oct-11
Mar-12
May-11
Jul-10
Dec-10
Feb-10
Sep-09
5
Sullom Voe
Primorsk
CONTENTS
Wilhelmshaven
Rotterdam
Roberts Bank
Crude Tanker Spot Market
p2
Product Tanker Spot Market
p3
Large Bulk Carrier Market
p4
Tripcharter Market, Freight Indices
& Futures
p5
Gas & Chemical Markets
p6
Liner & Offshore Markets
p7
Secondhand Prices
p8
Sale & Purchase Market
pi
Recent Ship Sales by Vessel Type
pii
Fleet Changes, Bunkers
& Capital Market Activity
piii
Timecharter Fixture Record
piv
The Timecharter Market
p9
The Shipbuilding Market
p10
The Demolition Market
p11
Economic Indicators
p12
Ship Demand Trends
p13
World Fleets & Orderbooks
p14-15
Analysis
p16
Clarksons Research will be exhibiting at
Offshore Europe, Aberdeen, Scotland from
the 8th - 11th September 2015 and will be
located at stand 1G63 in the Aberdeen
Exhibition and Conference Centre.
Lavera
New York
Philadelphia
Hampton Roads
New Orleans
LOOP
Houston
Odessa
Novorossiysk
Trieste
Augusta
Agioi Theodoroi
Arzew
Sidi Kerir
Es Sider
Ain Sukhna
Ras Tanura
St Eustatius
Bolivar
Jamnagar
Mundra
Gangavaram
Mumbai
Bonaire
Lome
Bonny Offshore
Dar es Salaam
Rio de Janeiro
Tubarao
Richards Bay
Saldanha Bay
Selection of ports covered by the various market sectors in this report
Asset Prices This Week…
VLCC N/B…
$95.5m
|
Capesize N/B…
$48.5m
|
2750 TEU N/B…
$30.5m
VLCC 5yo…
$84.0m
|
Capesize 5yo…
$35.0m
|
2750 TEU 5yo…
$18.0m
Roberts Bank
Longkou
Qingdao
Chiba
Oita
Beilun
Mundra
Jamnagar
Pipavav
Gangavaram
Mumbai
New York
Philadelphia
Ulsan
Houston
Ningbo
Hampton Roads
New Orleans
LOOP
St Eustatius
Bolivar
Clarksons Research is respected worldwide
as the most authoritative provider of
intelligence for the global shipping industry.
Clarksons Research is part of the Clarksons
group, the world’s largest provider of
shipbroking and integrated shipping
services. For more detail about the
Clarksons group visit www.clarksons.com.
Bonaire
Singapore
Jakarta
Dampier
Banjarmasin
Hay Point
Rio de Janeiro
Tubarao
Sydney
Selection of ports covered by the various market sectors in this report
Licenced to SIWEM00018 of BP Shipping Co Limited. Distribution is restricted; please remember to acknowledge the source. Shipping Intelligence Weekly, Issue 1186.
Licenced to SIWEM00018 of BP Shipping Co Limited. Distribution is restricted; please remember to acknowledge the source. Shipping Intelligence Weekly, Issue 1186.
Issue No. 1,186
Crude Tanker Spot Market
Crude Tanker Spot Earnings ($,000's/day)
Crude Tanker Highlights
• VLCCs:
90
70
It was a fairly active week in the MEG, which supported the
rate on the route to Japan rising to WS 32.5. However, the
rate on the Gulf-US Gulf route fell to WS 20. Meanwhile,
owners in WAF continue to resist downward pressure from
charterers, particularly for long voyages, and the rate on
the route to China rose to WS 42.5.
VLCC
Suezmax
Aframax
60
• Suezmaxes:
50
There was limited enquiry and ample prompt tonnage in
the Suezmax market this week, with the rate on the crossMed route falling to WS 62.5. Suezmax average earnings
dropped by 14% w-o-w to $28,324/day.
40
30
• Aframaxes:
Although it was a relatively quiet week in the Southern
European market, rates did not fall dramatically, with the
rate on the Sidi Kerir-Trieste route declining to WS 77.5.
Meanwhile, it was quite an active week in the North Sea
and Baltic load regions, although the rate on the BalticUKC route remained steady at WS 75. Aframax average
earnings decreased slightly w-o-w to $27,487/day.
20
10
Aug Nov Jan Mar May
'13 '13 '14 '14 '14
Jul
'14
Sep Nov Jan Mar May
'14 '14 '15 '15 '15
VLCC Single
Voyage.....
23
23
23
23
23
23
23
23
23
23
23
280,000t Gulf - Europe
280,000t Gulf - US Gulf *
265,000t Gulf - Japan *
265,000t Gulf - S.Korea *
270,000t Gulf - Sing
280,000t Gulf - Red Sea
260,000t WAF - China *
260,000t WAF - US Gulf
260,000t WAF - WC India^
275,000t Caribs-Singapore^
VLCC Ave. Earnings *
WS 2015
Aug 21 Aug 28
23
22
30
29
30
37.5
40
47.5
3.25
6.00
21
20
32.5
30
32.5
37.5
42.5
50
3.50
5.50
Jul
'15
Average earnings $ per day
VLCC Earnings
2015
2013
2014
2015
Aug 21
Aug 28
35
34
60
58
61
67
61
69
4.79
6.82
11,486
8,319
17,710
16,937
17,994
25,880
15,454
22,665
20,313
29,608
16,217
21,719
16,475
27,462
26,167
28,008
38,648
27,028
39,442
32,389
52,937
27,315
49,287
42,054
58,802
54,912
60,121
69,668
56,639
69,629
64,012
102,087
53,102
28,829
23,856
22,769
21,151
22,001
34,161
34,408
46,756
40,663
92,309
25,546
27,160
22,207
28,768
25,011
27,929
36,635
39,589
51,267
47,793
84,441
28,894
This Week ....
SOFTER
SOFTER
FIRMER
FIRMER
FIRMER
FIRM....
FIRMER
FIRMER
FIRMER
WEAKER
FIRMER
-6%
-7%
26%
18%
27%
7%
15%
10%
18%
-9%
13%
^ Lump sum in million dollars. VLCC average earnings series based on a revised selection of routes from start 2015.
Suezmax Single
Voyage.....
24
24
24
24
24
24
130,000t WAF - USAC
130,000t WAF - Med*
130,000t Med - Med *
140,000t Black Sea - Med*
130,000t Gulf - WC India*
Suezmax Ave. Earnings *
WS 2015
Aug 21 Aug 28
65
67.5
70
70
65
57.5
59
62.5
62.5
60
Average earnings $ per day
Suezmax Earnings
2015
2013
2014
2015
Aug 21
Aug 28
84
86
90
90
92
14,245
13,863
16,776
13,321
11,122
15,511
24,785
25,583
30,796
31,000
21,612
27,791
40,501
43,536
49,259
52,118
39,592
46,126
30,672
33,577
36,302
36,758
24,418
32,764
27,021
28,535
31,352
30,911
22,499
28,324
This Week ....
WEAKER
WEAKER
WEAKER
WEAKER
SOFTER
WEAKER
-12%
-15%
-14%
-16%
-8%
-14%
Suezmax average earnings series based on a revised selection of routes from start 2015.
Aframax Single
Voyage.....
25
25
25
25
25
25
25
25
25
25
25
100,000t Baltic - UKC *
80,000t
Black Sea - Med *
80,000t
Sidi Kerir - Trieste *
80,000t
Mellitah - Fos^
80,000t
Med - USAC
80,000t
UKC - UKC *
80,000t
UKC - USAC
80,000t
Gulf - East *
80,000t
Indo - Japan *
70,000t
Caribs - US Gulf *
Aframax Ave. Earnings *
WS 2015
Aug 21 Aug 28
75
87.5
80
97.5
80
100
90
97.5
97.5
82.5
75
77.5
77.5
87.5
72.5
97.5
90
95
95
80
Average earnings $ per day
Aframax Earnings
2015
2013
2014
2015
Aug 21
Aug 28
97
114
112
124
103
114
104
117
119
136
19,903
11,265
11,346
7,023
15,525
11,633
17,958
14,185
14,076
16,508
14,131
28,519
24,679
24,427
21,200
22,059
23,216
22,581
23,075
23,060
25,960
24,705
46,508
37,808
37,094
35,896
32,556
40,467
31,705
35,401
38,105
36,175
38,794
33,688
26,866
23,988
23,724
24,497
32,062
27,036
30,270
31,840
18,744
28,208
34,695
22,584
23,647
19,517
22,054
31,088
28,108
30,398
31,667
18,330
27,487
This Week ....
STEADY
WEAKER
STEADY
WEAKER
WEAKER
SOFTER
FIRM....
STEADY
STEADY
STEADY
STEADY
3%
-16%
-1%
-18%
-10%
-3%
4%
0%
-1%
-2%
-3%
"Voyage Earnings" are estimated from spot freight rates (see footnote on page 4); */ # Indicates constituent routes of "Average Earnings".
^Earnings and rate based on Es Sider - Fos before 20th February 2015.
Clarksons Research
Page 2
28-Aug-15
Licenced to SIWEM00018 of BP Shipping Co Limited. Distribution is restricted; please remember to acknowledge the source. Shipping Intelligence Weekly, Issue 1186.
Licenced to SIWEM00018 of BP Shipping Co Limited. Distribution is restricted; please remember to acknowledge the source. Shipping Intelligence Weekly, Issue 1186.
80
Product Tanker Spot Market
Product Tanker Spot Earnings ($,000's/day)
Product Tanker Highlights
•
MR Clean Tanker Earnings
Handy Clean Earnings
Dirty Panamax Earnings
Licenced to SIWEM00018 of BP Shipping Co Limited. Distribution is restricted; please remember to acknowledge the source. Shipping Intelligence Weekly, Issue 1186.
45
40
35
30
25
20
•
Dirty Products:
Although there was an uptick in activity in the Caribbean
and US Gulf this week, owners were unable to take
advantage due to abundant tonnage in the region. As a
result, the rate on the Caribs-US Gulf route fell to WS 90.
Meanwhile, there was limited activity in both the Med and
UKC load regions and the rate on the UKC-US Gulf route
fell to WS 90. Dirty average earnings declined 13% w-o-w
to stand at $17,139/day.
15
10
5
Aug Nov Jan Mar May Jul
'13 '13 '14 '14 '14 '14
Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul
'14 '14 '15 '15 '15 '15
Clean Product
Single Voyage...
26
27
28
28
28
28
28
28
28
28
28
29
29
75,000t Gulf - Japan
55,000t Gulf - Japan
37,000t UKC - USAC *
37/38kt UKC-USAC-USG-UKC §
37,000t UKC- W. Africa *
38,000t USG - ECSA *
30,000t Singapore-E Aus *
30,000t Singapore-Japan
35,000t WC India - Japan *
35,000t Gulf - E.Africa
40,000t Gulf-UKC * ^
30,000t Med - Med #
30,000t Black Sea - Med #
Clean 'MR' Ave. Earnings *
Clean 'Hdy' Ave. Earnings #
^ Lump Sum in $million.
WS 2015
Aug 21 Aug 28
31
31
31
33
55,000t Med - US Gulf *
55,000t UKC - US Gulf *
50,000t Caribs - US Gulf *
30,000t Black Sea - Med
Dirty Ave. Earnings *
2015
2013
2014
2015
Aug 21
Aug 28
120
115
125
117
131
154
125/80
125/75
154/102
140
130
210
160
170
195
1.9
135
135
140
127.5
210
160
170
190
1.7
135
135
173
158
187
140
133
178
1.67
179
182
13,683
12,951
10,469
19,399
17,782
16,574
14,360
14,517
10,760
17,134
10,840
11,354
9,981
13,464
10,668
18,302
15,232
10,330
17,913
15,358
14,111
13,474
10,801
10,737
16,733
11,093
13,079
11,867
12,517
12,473
33,770
27,591
21,322
28,194
26,927
24,630
21,779
22,605
20,869
24,002
20,562
27,761
22,190
22,681
24,975
53,616
29,579
17,247
21,978
21,931
20,638
27,851
29,394
31,682
29,077
27,342
18,085
14,577
24,448
16,331
39,116
26,371
17,966
21,764
22,655
20,554
28,535
30,045
32,378
29,085
23,921
18,537
14,972
24,335
16,755
WS 2015
Aug 21 Aug 28
97.5
97.5
110
140
92.5
90
90
137.5
Gulf-West
Gulf-East/Japan
Gulf-Red Sea
Others
Total Number of Fixtures
Vessels due to arrive in Gulf ~
VLCCs Spot in Gulf ~ No.
000 Dwt
Average earnings $ per day
-27%
-11%
4%
-1%
3%
0%
2%
2%
2%
0%
-13%
3%
3%
0%
3%
2013
2014
2015
Aug 21
Aug 28
130
129
144
168
10,536
11,648
11,197
14,225
11,127
17,418
19,586
19,568
17,630
18,858
26,552
27,476
26,966
20,793
26,998
19,152
19,998
19,694
15,744
19,614
18,500
18,450
14,467
15,601
17,139
Average No.
2014
Dirty Earnings
2015
Number
Last
Mar '15
Apr '15
May '15
Jun '15
Jul '15
4 Wks
23
92
9
60
184
13
107
10
56
186
11
77
3
63
154
20
67
2
51
140
115
7
2,110
82
1
311
107
1
309
94
9
2,734
24
98
2
50
173
19
97
1
52
169
23
105
2
61
191
21
91
5
59
176
82
4
1,056
92
6
1,865
113
4
1,162
98
3
864
This Week ....
SOFTER
SOFTER
WEAKER!!
STEADY
WEAKER
-3%
-8%
-27%
-1%
-13%
VLCC Spot Market
Monthly Fixture Record
2013
Fixtures:
This Week ....
WEAKER!!
WEAKER
FIRM....
STEADY
FIRM....
STEADY
STEADY
STEADY
STEADY
STEADY
WEAKER
STEADY
STEADY
STEADY
STEADY
§ Earnings for a triangular voyage of UKC-USAC at WS 125, followed by USG-UKC at WS 75. See Sources & Methods.
VLCC Spot
Market Activity...
Clean Earnings
160
130
125
Dirty Product
Single Voyage...
Average earnings $ per day
This Week ...
UP BY....
DOWN BY.....
DOWN BY.....
DOWN BY.....
DOWN BY.....
82%
-13%
-33%
-19%
-9%
-12%
DOWN BY.....
UP BY....
800%
UP BY....
785%
~ As at the beginning of the month for historical data; for the next 4 weeks (vessels due) or this week (vessels spot) for current week's data.
Clarksons Research
Page 3
28-Aug-15
Licenced to SIWEM00018 of BP Shipping Co Limited. Distribution is restricted; please remember to acknowledge the source. Shipping Intelligence Weekly, Issue 1186.
Clean Products:
The MR market west of Suez has been relatively quiet
this week, with limited activity ex-UKC, although the rate
on the UKC-USAC route remained steady at WS 125.
Meanwhile, the market ex-USG has softened with the
rate on the route to ECSA falling to WS 127.5. Clean MR
average earnings remained steady w-o-w at $24,335/day,
slightly higher than the year to date average. Meanwhile,
the LR market ex-MEG continued to decline this week
due to limited activity and as a result the LR2 rate on the
route to Japan fell to WS 120, whilst the LR1 rate on the
same route fell to WS 115.
50
Large Bulk Carrier Market
Bulkcarrier Spot Earnings ($,000's/Day)
55
Capesize Average Spot
Panamax Average Spot
Supramax Tripcharter
45
40
35
• Panamax:
The Pacific market was generally steady this week.
Relatively strong spot rates in the US Gulf have attracted
open tonnage in the North Pacific, since Transpacific
rates have remained fairly weak. A long tonnage list in the
Atlantic has exerted pressure on rates in the region.
30
25
20
15
10
5
Aug Nov Jan Mar May Jul
'13 '13 '14 '14 '14 '14
Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul
'14 '14 '15 '15 '15 '15
Capesize Single
Voyage…
34
34
34
34
34
34
34
34
34
34
34
176,000t ore Tubarao/Rotterdam*
173,000t ore Tubarao/El Dekheila
176,000t ore Tub/Qingdao*
166,500t coal Bolivar/Rotterdam*
175,000t ore Dampier/Qingdao*
176,000t ore Saldanha/Qingdao
176,000t ore Dampier/Japan 18m*
168,000t coal Hay Pt./China
168,500t coal R.Bay/Rotterdam
168,500t coal R.Bay/EC India
Capesize Average Earnings *
Panamax Single
Voyage…
36
36
36
36
36
36
36
36
36
36
36
36
36
• Capesize:
The recent slide in rates has continued in the Capesize
market. The South Atlantic market softened, with owners
reducing their bids in response to aggressively low offers.
Meanwhile, limited cargo out of Western Australia saw
spot rates on the featured routes out of the region drop
w-o-w by $1/tonne. Overall, average Capesize spot
earnings dropped 27% w-o-w to $9,134/day.
67,000t coal USGulf/ARA*
67,000t coal Bolivar/ARA
65,000t coal Murmansk/ARA*
55,000t grain USGulf/N. China*^
72,000t coal Rob. Bank/N. China*
72,000t coal Dalrymp. B./N. China*
70,000t coal Indonesia/S. China*^
72,000t coal Indonesia/WC India*
72,000t coal Indonesia/EC India
60,000t grain Nopac/N. China*^
66,500t coal Richards B./Rott
72,000t coal Richards B./WC India*
Panamax Average Earnings *
Supramax Single
Voyage...
37 50,000t grain USGulf/Jap.(HSS)
37 50,000t coal Richards B./WC India
37 Supramax Average Earnings
$ Per Ton
Aug 21 Aug 28
4.90
5.80
12.60
6.80
5.45
8.30
5.35
5.90
5.90
7.75
4.40
5.50
10.60
5.70
4.45
7.10
4.35
4.50
4.35
6.50
Average Earnings $ Per Day
11.75
10.85
7.35
34.50
11.10
8.55
4.30
7.50
6.75
16.50
7.40
10.00
11.25
10.10
6.60
34.00
11.00
8.75
3.70
7.00
6.25
16.60
7.00
7.00
2013
2014
2015
Aug 21
Aug 28
5.67
6.26
11.51
6.34
4.95
8.16
4.83
6.15
5.14
7.15
13,592
16,371
27,023
17,168
16,162
19,047
20,222
14,270
-845
16,197
18,834
11,321
13,477
27,342
13,601
12,511
18,862
16,800
15,690
499
12,922
16,315
5,532
8,778
13,794
8,106
5,426
9,366
9,342
7,564
-833
6,688
8,440
5,019
9,584
18,926
12,196
10,626
12,211
15,593
9,358
3,786
11,386
12,472
4,062
9,518
15,048
8,992
6,679
9,861
10,888
4,466
693
8,148
9,134
Average Earnings $ Per Day
2013
2014
2015
Aug 21
Aug 28
10.67
9.90
6.12
31.75
10.49
8.64
3.98
7.32
6.50
16.56
7.46
9.80
9,723
9,481
8,607
7,192
6,456
4,552
14,600
11,764
10,569
6,035
11,119
12,558
9,384
2,596
9,129
7,801
6,270
7,314
7,478
10,997
8,553
7,590
3,413
9,568
10,150
6,551
1,328
7,402
7,536
9,236
10,560
12,916
13,854
11,325
9,129
5,484
11,411
12,097
7,828
2,902
9,330
10,057
9,047
9,781
10,901
13,993
11,666
10,068
4,093
10,619
11,126
8,265
3,096
5,175
9,314
35.50
11.50
33.50
10.75
12,074
10,814
13,956
16,355
1,243
12,018
8,646
Average Earnings $ Per Day
This Week ...
WEAKER
STEADY
WEAKER
WEAKER!!
WEAKER!!
WEAKER
WEAKER!!
WEAKER!!
WEAKER!!
WEAKER!!
WEAKER!!
-19%
-1%
-20%
-26%
-37%
-19%
-30%
-52%
-82%
-28%
-27%
Panamax Market
2015
$ Per Ton
Aug 21 Aug 28
Capesize Market
2015
$ Per Ton
Aug 21 Aug 28
• Handy:
The USG lacked the activity seen in previous weeks,
which saw the spot rate on the featured route drop to
$33.50/tonne. Meanwhile, Supramax trip rates on the
Indonesia to China route remained flat w-o-w, despite an
increase in activity towards the end of the week.
This Week ...
STEADY
SOFTER
WEAKER
STEADY
FIRM.......
FIRMER
WEAKER!!
SOFTER
WEAKER
FIRM.......
FIRM.......
WEAKER!!
SOFTER
-2%
-7%
-16%
1%
3%
10%
-25%
-7%
-8%
6%
7%
-45%
-7%
Supramax Market
This Week ...
2015
2013
2014
2015
Aug 21
Aug 28
30.94
10.79
19,212
8,127
12,237
18,950
6,317
10,819
12,660
4,317
7,345
17,807
6,633
10,980
16,905 SOFTER
6,512 STEADY
10,209 SOFTER
-5%
-2%
-7%
"Voyage Earnings" are calculated from spot freight rates for standard routes/ships. These assumptions are detailed in the "Sources & Methods" document on the Shipping Intelligence
Network (www.clarksons.net). Standard ships are indicated by the figures on the left e.g. modern Capesize = standard ship no. 34. A wider selection of spot freight rate and earnings
series, including for Kamsarmax vessels, is available on Shipping Intelligence Network. ^2014 averages comprised of July-December data.
Clarksons Research
Page 4
28-Aug-15
Licenced to SIWEM00018 of BP Shipping Co Limited. Distribution is restricted; please remember to acknowledge the source. Shipping Intelligence Weekly, Issue 1186.
Licenced to SIWEM00018 of BP Shipping Co Limited. Distribution is restricted; please remember to acknowledge the source. Shipping Intelligence Weekly, Issue 1186.
50
Bulkcarrier Highlights
Tripcharter Market, Freight Indices & Futures
Capesize
Tripcharter...
Cont/Far East
Transpacific R/V
Far East/Cont
Transatlantic R/V
Average Capesize Earnings
2013
2014
2015
Jul 31
Aug 07
Aug 14
Aug 21
Aug 28
29,692
14,168
-635
15,447
14,668
29,591
12,723
159
12,257
13,683
14,447
5,804
-1,725
7,050
6,394
28,500
14,000
4,900
21,500
17,225
29,000
16,000
6,000
21,900
18,225
21,700
11,200
4,350
14,100
12,838
19,000
10,650
3,300
10,600
10,888
16,000
8,000
750
7,500
8,063
Panamax
Tripcharter...
2013
2014
2015
Jul 31
Aug 07
Aug 14
Aug 21
Aug 28
17,625
9,073
349
10,623
9,418
15,336
7,988
974
6,837
7,783
10,774
5,189
490
6,691
5,786
14,250
6,750
1,000
10,800
8,200
14,750
6,100
500
10,750
8,025
14,500
6,400
500
11,500
8,225
14,500
6,750
700
11,000
8,238
13,250
6,750
700
9,500
7,550
Supramax
Tripcharter...
* Does not include Indonesia-China.
This Week ....
WEAKER
STEADY
STEADY
WEAKER
WEAKER
-9%
0%
0%
-14%
-8%
Supramax Market
Average Rate $ Per Day
Cont/Far East
Transpacific R/V
Far East/Cont
Transatlantic R/V
Indonesia - China~
Average Supramax Earnings*
-16%
-25%
-77%
-29%
-26%
Panamax Market
Average Rate $ Per Day
Cont/Far East
Transpacific R/V
Far East/Cont
Transatlantic R/V
Average Panamax Earnings
This Week ....
WEAKER
WEAKER
WEAKER!!
WEAKER!!
WEAKER!!
2013
2014
2015
Jul 31
Aug 07
Aug 14
Aug 21
Aug 28
15,538
8,653
5,118
9,284
6,242
9,648
14,918
8,894
6,322
6,351
5,966
9,121
9,893
6,344
5,364
5,929
4,650
6,883
12,750
7,000
6,000
10,000
5,250
8,938
12,750
7,000
5,750
9,750
5,250
8,813
13,000
6,750
5,750
9,750
5,250
8,813
13,750
7,250
5,250
9,750
5,000
9,000
13,750
7,250
5,500
9,750
5,000
9,063
This Week ....
STEADY
STEADY
FIRM.......
STEADY
STEADY
STEADY
0%
0%
5%
0%
0%
1%
~ Based on delivery South China, redelivery South China.
Handysize
Handysize Market
Average Rate $ Per Day
Tripcharter...
Cont/ECSA
Cont/USEC-USG
ECSA/Cont
USEC-USG/Cont
SEAsia/Australia R/V
Transpacific R/V
Average Handysize Earnings
2013
2014
2015
Jul 31
Aug 07
Aug 14
Aug 21
Aug 28
6,211
5,668
11,563
13,942
7,074
7,004
8,577
5,656
5,319
10,100
10,683
6,920
7,294
7,662
3,600
3,821
9,136
7,450
4,291
5,100
5,566
4,500
4,500
11,500
9,500
4,000
4,750
6,458
4,750
5,000
13,000
9,250
4,250
4,750
6,833
4,750
5,250
14,000
10,000
4,250
4,750
7,167
5,500
6,000
14,500
10,500
4,000
4,250
7,458
5,500
6,000
14,250
10,250
4,000
4,250
7,375
This Week ....
STEADY
STEADY
STEADY
STEADY
STEADY
STEADY
STEADY
0%
0%
-2%
-2%
0%
0%
-1%
Note: Vessels based on Baltic standards where appropriate. Tripcharter rates for a wider selection of standard vessels, including a 180,000 dwt Capesize, 58,000 dwt
Supramax and 34,000 dwt Handysize are available on Shipping Intelligence Network at www.clarksons.net.
Baltic Freight Indices
Date
18-Aug
19-Aug
20-Aug
21-Aug
24-Aug
25-Aug
26-Aug
27-Aug
Max Value
Min Value
Avg Value
Baltic Panamax Index Trends
BPI
1052
1049
1052
1054
1052
1047
1031
1000
1054
1000
1042
BSI
915
920
924
930
933
934
933
931
934
915
928
BHSI
449
453
460
464
469
473
477
479
479
449
466
BDI
1046
1031
1014
994
968
942
918
905
1046
905
977
Index
5.72
4.31
14,009
6,720
6,985
7,971
9,732
Aug-15
8.10
6.65
14,425
6,750
8,650
7,050
8,825
Q4 15
6.70
5.65
Cal 16
6.35
5.50
12,300
7,350
8,550
10,050
6,900
7,100
BCI 2014
1838
1773
1679
1559
1403
1248
1089
1051
1838
1051
1455
FFA Indications*
$/day
27-Aug
BCI 7 Bolivar-Rott.
BCI 4 R.Bay-Rott.
BPI 2A USG/F.East
BPI 3A T/P R/V
Cape TC Avg.
P'max TC Avg.
S'max TC Avg.
2,250
2013
2,000
1,750
2014
2015
1,500
1,250
1,000
750
500
250
Week No.
0
1 3 6 8 11 13 16 18 21 23 26 28 31 33 36 38 40 43 45 48 50
*FFA Indications basis closing mid-price
Clarksons Research
Page 5
28-Aug-15
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Capesize Market
Average Rate $ Per Day
Gas & Chemical Markets
Markets….
Average
2013
2014
58.49
91.21
2015
Jun
Jul
Gas Market
28 Aug
LPG Charter Rates, $'000/month
4,500
Trends…
44/46K mt Gulf/Jap*
LPG TCE, $/day
82,000m³ modern
78,000m³ modern
LPG 12 mths T/C, $/day
82,000m³ modern
78,000m³ modern
59,000m³ modern
35,000m³
22,500m³ modern
20,500m³ Semi-Ref
15,000m³ Semi-Ref
8,250m³ Ethylene
4,000
115.25 128.80
78,000m3 TCE,
Gulf - Japan
74.00 WEAKER!! -43%
3,500
36,446 77,070
35,100 73,777
111,265 132,785
73,777 WEAKER!! -44%
106,145 124,388
70,325 WEAKER!! -43%
3,500m³ Pressure (East)
31,430
31,022
32,138
26,492
25,442
30,162
21,247
17,295
8,096
71,919
70,358
64,933
36,905
28,768
32,466
23,836
16,932
5,918
62,467
61,810
62,467
39,453
29,261
31,234
23,014
16,932
5,589
LNG Spot Rate, $/day^
160,000m³ (TFDE)
104,346 71,942
3,000
2,500
51,810
50,897
45,839
31,452
27,737
33,361
24,133
17,011
7,179
72,955
71,508
66,741
39,058
28,801
32,483
23,836
16,932
5,918
32,500 27,600
WEAKER.. -14%
WEAKER.. -14%
SOFTER... -6%
STEADY... 1%
STEADY... 2%
SOFTER... -4%
SOFTER... -3%
STEADY... 0%
SOFTER... -6%
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
78,000m3,
1 Yr t/c
0
32,000 FIRMER... 16%
*44K mt for 78K vessel/46K mt for 82K vessel. ^Single voyage loading within the next three months.
•
This week was a reminder that
sentiment can be a powerful force in the
VLGC sector. LPG vessel owners have
become more assertive in recent
months, being ruthless when there was
an opportunity to firm rates and resistant
to pressure from charterers. It is
perhaps surprising that this week has
seen virtual panic set in as owners
chased the market down, wiping around
$20/mt off the Baltic Index.
Markets….
Voyage Rates ($/mt)
10,000 Gulf/WC India
15,000 Gulf/Ulsan
15,000 Gulf/Med
15,000 Gulf/Rott.
5,000 Rott/Houston
10,000 Rott/Houston
5,000 Rott/Ulsan
5,000 Singapore/Rott
1,000~ Sing./Houston
10,000 Ulsan/Houston
5,000 Houston/Rott
5,000 Houston/Ulsan
12 mths TC, $/day
13,000 dwt IMO II
19,999 dwt S/S
Average
2013
2014
2015
Jun
Jul
Chem Market
28 Aug
adjust is lacking. Many of the third-party
relets are speculative plays, where
traders look to push ships out, banking
on covering these later when rates fall.
•
In the current environment most
timecharter discussions have faltered as
bid/offer levels try to find some stability.
Charterers are hoping that owners may
be a bit more willing to put ships out on
term business with the spot market in
flux.
Chemical Freight Rates, $/mt
140
Trends…
basis 5,000mt
Easychems
130
31.40
49.23
62.06
69.40
45.48
41.11
91.67
98.23
153.31
60.58
48.40
73.85
32.79
50.73
60.62
66.48
44.01
39.28
100.14
93.04
164.17
59.10
47.98
65.15
35.00
50.00
59.00
61.00
42.75
39.00
87.50
90.75
161.50
59.25
62.25
62.50
35.60
50.40
60.00
61.60
43.70
39.40
85.50
90.20
164.20
58.40
60.20
63.40
35.00
48.00
61.00
61.00
43.50
38.00
85.00
94.00
166.00
57.00
65.00
63.00
STEADY...
SOFTER...
STEADY...
STEADY...
STEADY...
SOFTER...
STEADY...
FIRM...
STEADY...
STEADY...
FIRM...
STEADY...
-2%
-5%
2%
-1%
0%
-4%
-1%
4%
1%
-2%
8%
-1%
9,750 STEADY...
15,500 STEADY...
0%
2%
120
110
100
90
80
70
60
Rott/Far E.
Houston/Far E.
50
40
8,583 9,167
13,438 14,042
9,750 9,750
15,250 15,250
Aug-13
Oct-13
Nov-13
Jan-14
Feb-14
Mar-14
May-14
Jun-14
Aug-14
Sep-14
Oct-14
Dec-14
Jan-15
Feb-15
Apr-15
May-15
Jul-15
Aug-15
Chemicals
•
The tonnage list in the AG is as
long as has been seen this year and the
spectre of idle time is a threat. Some
newbuilds have delivered into the fleet
and several third-party relets have been
offered out. But the market AG-East has
been as active as any other period this
year. What is lacking is the resumption
of West-East trade which has supported
freight this year. Arbitrage opportunities
take time - but patience while prices
Easychems except for: ~ Stainless Steel.
•
This week the Houston to Rotterdam market has continued to soften due
to a lack of fresh cargoes. Transpacific
rates have also softened as the market
has been quiet for 5,000mt parcels. ExMEG rates have also softened this week
as the supply of available tonnage outweighs current demand levels.
•
The Rotterdam to Far East Asia
market has remained quiet this week
with rates for all parcel sizes from
Clarksons Research
1,000mt to 5,000mt holding steady. This
can be attributed to the supply demand
fundamentals exhibiting a good balance,
with owners and charterers fulfilling requirements. Ex-Rotterdam transatlantic
rates have also softened this week as
market activity has been sparse.
•
Meanwhile, rates for parcels on
the SE Asia to Rotterdam route have
tightened up by $2/mt for both 3,000mt
and 5,000mt cargoes. This can be atPage 6
tributed to a certain amount of bullish
sentiment coming from owners, who are
pushing up prices due to a number of
requirements in the market.
28-Aug-15
Licenced to SIWEM00018 of BP Shipping Co Limited. Distribution is restricted; please remember to acknowledge the source. Shipping Intelligence Weekly, Issue 1186.
Licenced to SIWEM00018 of BP Shipping Co Limited. Distribution is restricted; please remember to acknowledge the source. Shipping Intelligence Weekly, Issue 1186.
LPG Voyage Rates, $/mt
Aug-13
Oct-13
Nov-13
Jan-14
Feb-14
Mar-14
May-14
Jun-14
Aug-14
Sep-14
Oct-14
Dec-14
Jan-15
Feb-15
Apr-15
May-15
Jul-15
Aug-15
Gas Carrier
Liner & Offshore Markets
Liner Market Rates ($,000's/day)
Liner Market News
20
1,700 teu grd FCC, 6-12 mth TC
4,400 teu gls FCC, 6-12 mth TC
15
10
Container / MPP /
Aug-15
May-15
Feb-15
Nov-14
Aug-14
May-14
Feb-14
Nov-13
Aug-13
May-13
Feb-13
Nov-12
Aug-12
May-12
Feb-12
Nov-11
Aug-11
5
Average
Short Sea Markets
Containerships ($/Day, 6-12mth TC)
Handy, 1,000 teu grd.
Handy, 1,700 teu grd.
Sub-P'max, 2,000 teu g'less
Sub-P'max, 2,750 teu g'less
Panamax, 3,500 teu g'less
Panamax, 4,400 teu g'less
MPP Tonnage ($/Day)^
17,000 dwt, grd. 1 yr. t/c (liner)
12,000 dwt, grd. 1 yr. t/c (liner)
European Short Sea 3,000dwt ($/t)
ECUK/ARAG - N.Spain
French Bay - ECUK
Lower Baltic - ARAG
UK/ARAG - W.Med
W.Med - UK/ARAG
Liner Markets
2015
2011
2012
2013
2014
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Trends*
7,729
10,142
10,688
13,388
14,871
19,854
5,358
6,292
6,408
6,742
7,179
9,942
6,321
7,096
6,483
6,829
7,021
8,696
6,396
7,313
6,933
7,425
7,746
8,771
8,500
11,000
10,250
13,250
14,000
15,350
8,500
11,500
10,300
11,750
13,500
15,000
8,200
11,000
10,100
11,000
12,500
15,000
7,800
9,500
9,250
9,750
11,750
13,750
FIRM.......
FIRMER...
FIRMER...
WEAKER...
STEADY...
STEADY...
7%
13%
9%
-10%
1%
-2%
9,729
8,988
9,780
8,870
9,763
8,508
8,500
7,400
8,300
7,400
8,300
7,500
8,300
7,500
SOFTER...
STEADY...
-6%
-1%
22.31
15.72
20.42
30.71
24.91
22.73
16.73
20.42
33.22
26.11
22.85
17.96
20.98
33.22
27.56
25.02
18.64
21.64
35.56
27.06
23.15
15.95
17.15
31.05
22.10
21.88
14.00
16.44
30.00
21.13
20.25
13.20
16.00
28.40
19.95
19.75
13.00
15.50
25.75
18.50
STEADY...
STEADY...
SOFTER...
WEAKER...
SOFTER...
-2%
-2%
-3%
-9%
-7%
*3-month trend for Container/MPP; current month shows latest end month data. Change since previous month for Short Sea; see www.hcshipping.co.uk for market report.
^Data for 2011 and 2012 based on previous historical vessel specification (see Container Intelligence Monthly), 2013 average basis August-December data.
Latest
Trends*
10,097
11,500
4,734
7,250
FIRM.......
7%
WEAKER.. -23%
FIRMER... 13%
WEAKER!! -14%
Clarksons Research
45
40
W.Africa Term, PSV, >900m2, $000/day (RHS)
25
35
20
6,000 WEAKER!! -40%
14,000 WEAKER!! -27%
27,000 SOFTER... -8%
85-115 WEAKER.. -14%
250-350 WEAKER!! -9%
30
25
15
20
10
15
This Month
Obk
2,856
2,140
999
6,446
12,441
2,926
2,330
1,030
6,679
12,965
2,958
2,407
1,019
6,791
13,175
247
388
204
457
1,296
% Fleet
8%
16%
20%
7%
10%
Page 7
5
10
Jul-15
Jul-15
Apr-15
2014
Jan-15
2013
Oct-14
Anchor Handling Tug/Supply
PSV/Supply
Mobile Drilling Units
Other Types
All Offshore Vessels
$000/day
Jul-14
Trends
No. End
£000/day
N.Sea Term, PSV, >900m2, £000/day (LHS)
*3-month trend. ** Annual drilling rig dayrates on end year basis.
Offshore Fleet
30
Apr-14
2014
Jan-14
2013
North Sea OSV Market £/Day
38,655 38,400
AHTS Spot, 18k+ BHP
24,917 24,750
AHTS Term, 16-20k BHP
16,050 12,229
PSV Spot, >800m2
18,750 17,250
PSV Term, >900m2
Regional OSV Market $/Day
8,500
SE Asia, AHTS Term, 5k BHP 8,833
32,167 30,917
W.Africa PSV Term, >900m2
33,375 36,208
Brazil, PSV Term, >900m2
Drilling Rig Market, $000/Day**
Jack-Up, SE Asia, High-Spec 150-165 125-150
550-600 350-410
Floater, GoM, Ultra Deep
Offshore Vessel Charter Rates
Offshore Market
Oct-13
Market
Average
Jul-13
Offshore
Offshore fleet includes all mobile units; for more detailed coverage of the full
range of offshore sectors see Offshore Intelligence Monthly. See also Offshore
Drilling Rig Monthly and Offshore Support Vessel Monthly.
28-Aug-15
Licenced to SIWEM00018 of BP Shipping Co Limited. Distribution is restricted; please remember to acknowledge the source. Shipping Intelligence Weekly, Issue 1186.
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2,750 teu gls FCC, 6-12 mth TC
• Charter rates for all containership sizes softened during
August. By the end of the month, the benchmark one year
rate for a 2,750 TEU gearless boxship had fallen to
$9,750/day, down 11% m-o-m, whilst the rate for a 1,000
TEU geared boxship had dropped by 5% to $7,800/day. In
the Panamax sector, the one year timecharter rate for a
4,400 TEU containership declined by 8% m-o-m to reach
$13,750/day. While charter rates have eased back in
recent weeks, rates still remain higher than at the end of
2014. The one year rate for a 4,400 TEU Panamax
boxship averaged $8,771/day in full year 2014 and stood
at $10,150/day at the end of December, so current rate
levels still represent a notable improvement. However,
current demand side signals remain relatively weak, and
recent weak data points have resulted in a downward
revision to the projection for growth in global container
trade in 2015 to 4.6%, following growth of 5.3% in 2014.
Secondhand Prices
Trend…
STEADY...
STEADY...
FIRMER...
FIRMER...
STEADY...
FIRM....
STEADY...
STEADY...
STEADY...
FIRM....
FIRM....
FIRM....
FIRM....
FIRM....
FIRM....
FIRM....
FIRMER...
STEADY...
FIRM....
STEADY...
FIRM....
Long Term Price Trends
0%
2%
11%
24%
3%
4%
2%
1%
1%
7%
6%
5%
4%
3%
4%
7%
8%
3%
6%
3%
3%
Index, Start 2000 = 100
550
500
Bulkers
Tankers
450
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
Jul '15
105.0
84.0
59.0
41.0
73.0
61.0
42.0
57.0
46.0
33.0
50.0
37.5
25.0
38.5
28.0
20.0
13.5
25.0
17.5
27.5
144
12%
Jul '14
105.0
77.0
52.0
29.0
72.0
57.0
37.0
57.0
42.0
27.0
45.0
33.5
23.5
37.0
25.0
16.0
10.0
23.0
15.0
26.8
131
1%
Jul '13
83.0
60.0
41.0
26.0
57.0
42.0
27.0
43.0
32.0
22.0
41.0
31.0
21.0
38.0
29.0
19.0
11.0
25.0
15.0
24.5
129
15%
Jul '12
82.0
57.0
37.0
27.0
55.0
40.0
26.0
40.0
27.5
17.0
35.0
25.0
16.5
35.0
25.0
16.5
10.0
22.0
13.0
21.5
112
-8%
Jul '11
Aug
Jul '10
2014
Jul '09
2013
Jul '08
Resale
5 yrs
10 yrs
15 yrs
Resale
5 yrs
10 yrs
Resale
5 yrs
10 yrs
Resale
5 yrs
10 yrs
Resale
5 yrs
10 yrs
15 yrs
5 yrs
10 yrs
19,999 dwt Chem S/S 5 yrs
5-y-o Tanker Index
12 month Change
310,000 dwt d/h
310,000 dwt d/h
300,000 dwt d/h
300,000 dwt d/h
160,000 dwt d/h
160,000 dwt d/h
150,000 dwt d/h
105,000 dwt d/h
105,000 dwt d/h
105,000 dwt d/h
73,000 dwt d/h
73,000 dwt d/h
70,000 dwt d/h
51,000 dwt d/h
47,000 dwt d/h
45,000 dwt d/h
45,000 dwt d/h
37,000 dwt d/h
37,000 dwt d/h ^
2012
Short Term Tanker Trends
25%
% Year on Year
Pre Jan-15: ^35k.
20%
Trend…
10%
Pre Jan-14 (dwt): *58k.
-25%
Jul '15
Apr '15
Oct '14
-30%
Short Term Bulk Trends
40%
% Year on Year
30%
Three Month
10%
19.0
14.5
8.0
24.7
18.0
17.0
20.0
18.0
9.3
39.5
25.5
20.0
STEADY...
FIRM....
FIRM....
FIRMER...
FIRM....
FIRM....
0%
8%
8%
20%
6%
6%
End Year, Index
Three Month
2012
2013
2014
Aug
96
111
102
102
-10%
-20%
5-year-old Bulker Price Index
Percentage Change
Year-On-Year
-30%
-40%
Trend …
STEADY...
0%
1%
Jul '15
20.0
16.3
9.3
37.1
18.0
17.0
Apr '15
25.5
17.0
8.0
36.6
20.0
21.0
Trend …
Jan '15
Aug
Oct '14
2014
Jul '14
2013
Apr '14
2012
Jan '14
ALL VESSELS
-20%
Oct '13
Index …
5-year-old Tanker Price Index
Percentage Change
Year-On-Year
-15%
20%
End Year, $m
*Ro-Ro prices in euros, historical data converted using historical exchange rates
Clarkson
-10%
Jul '13
5 yrs
4,500 teu
5 yrs
2,750 teu
10 yrs
1,700 teu
10-y-o Container Index
10 yrs
Ro-Ro 4,000 lm*
10 yrs
Ro-Ro 2,500 lm*
-5%
Apr '13
Ro-Ro Prices
0%
Jan '13
Container &
5%
Jan '15
STEADY... -2%
STEADY... -2%
SOFTER... -7%
WEAKER.. -11%
STEADY... -2%
STEADY...
3%
SOFTER... -8%
WEAKER.. -15%
SOFTER... -4%
SOFTER... -3%
SOFTER... -5%
SOFTER... -8%
WEAKER.. -11%
STEADY... -2%
SOFTER... -4%
STEADY... -1%
SOFTER... -8%
STEADY... -2%
Jul '14
47.0
35.0
20.0
10.5
28.0
18.0
12.0
6.5
26.0
15.5
10.5
6.0
4.0
21.0
13.0
9.5
5.5
93
-30%
Apr '14
54.0
39.0
27.5
16.0
31.0
20.0
14.5
10.0
30.0
20.5
13.5
9.0
6.0
24.0
17.0
12.5
8.0
116
-14%
Oct '13
54.0
44.0
31.0
18.0
33.0
25.5
18.0
12.0
30.0
24.5
17.5
11.0
6.5
23.5
19.0
14.0
9.5
135
28%
Jan '14
40.0
32.5
21.0
12.5
28.5
18.0
13.0
8.0
26.5
19.5
14.5
9.0
7.0
21.8
15.5
12.0
7.5
105
-25%
15%
Jul '13
Aug
Apr '13
2014
Jan '13
2013
Oct '12
Resale
5 yrs
10 yrs
15 yrs
Resale
5 yrs
10 yrs
15 yrs
Resale
5 yrs
10 yrs
15 yrs
20 yrs
Resale
5 yrs
10 yrs
15 yrs
2012
Oct '12
Prices...
180,000 dwt
180,000 dwt
170,000 dwt
170,000 dwt
82,000 dwt
76,000 dwt
75,000 dwt
73,000 dwt
61,000 dwt *
56,000 dwt
52,000 dwt
45-48,000 dwt
42-45,000 dwt
37,000 dwt
32,000 dwt
32,000 dwt
28,000 dwt
5-y-o Bulker Index
12 month Change
Three Month
Jul '12
End Year, $m
Jul '12
Bulkcarrier
Resale prices basis prompt delivery. 3-month trend: avg last 3 months vs avg previous 3 months. See SIN for full details of standard ship size history.
Clarksons Research
Page 8
28-Aug-15
Licenced to SIWEM00018 of BP Shipping Co Limited. Distribution is restricted; please remember to acknowledge the source. Shipping Intelligence Weekly, Issue 1186.
Licenced to SIWEM00018 of BP Shipping Co Limited. Distribution is restricted; please remember to acknowledge the source. Shipping Intelligence Weekly, Issue 1186.
Prices…
Asset Play in Focus
Three Month
Jul '07
End Year, $m
Jul '06
Oil Tanker
Sale & Purchase Market
Sales Volumes & Values
4,000
Value
3,500
160
140
3,000
120
2,500
100
2,000
80
1,500
60
1,000
40
500
20
Volume
0
Aug-10
Dec-10
Apr-11
Aug-11
Dec-11
Apr-12
Aug-12
Dec-12
Apr-13
Aug-13
Dec-13
Apr-14
Aug-14
Dec-14
Apr-15
0
Tanker
Sales* ....
Type:
VLCC
Suezmax
Aframax
Handy/Pmax
Total No. Sales
Total DWT (,000)
Total Value ($ m)
Y-t-d
Jul
2014
2015
2015
80
38
63
207
388
44,951
11,556
32
34
38
134
238
24,589
7,529
2
8
20
16
46
4,698
1,415
Y-t-d
Jul
2014
2015
2015
54
116
129
103
402
28,178
6,784
42
87
89
79
297
21,784
3,819
4
16
14
8
42
2,928
460
Y-t-d
Jul
2014
2015
2015
542
12,925
7,297
391
9,770
7,177
64
1,962
2,518
Y-t-d
Jul
2014
2015
2015
241
56
41
102
30
57
1,332
86,054
25,637
298
174
43
41
81
36
27
926
56,144
18,525
330
30
11
6
16
22
2
152
9,588
4,392
458
Bulker
Sales* ....
Type:
Capesize
Panamax
Handymax
Handysize
Total No. Sales
Total DWT (,000)
Total Value ($ m)
Other
Sales ....
Total No. Sales
Total dwt (,000s)
Total Value ($ m)
Sales .....
Greece
Norway
Germany
China P.R.
UK
South Korea
Total No. Sales
Total Dwt (,000)
Total Value ($m.)
Average $/Dwt
Dry Cargo:
In the dry S&P market this week, it has transpired that the United
Ocean controlled “UNITED JOURNEY” (82,580 dwt, built 2009,
Tsuneishi Zosen) has been committed to clients of Thenamaris for a
price in the region of $18m. By comparison, the same owners sold
the year older sister vessel “UNITED CHALLENGER” (82,641 dwt,
built 2008, Tsuneishi Zosen) to clients of Zhini Holding, Turkey for
$15.9m at the beginning of July. Meanwhile, the geared Panamax
“MARITIME PUTIAN” (73,652 dwt, built 2000, Imabari Shipbuilding,
C4x30T) has been sold for a price in the region of the low $5ms,
and the Post-Panamax “NORTH FORTUNE III” (91,439 dwt, built
2000, Oshima SB Co.) has been committed for a price in the region
of $7m.
In the Supramax segment, the Japanese controlled ‘Tess 58’ design
“TENNEI MARU” (58,693 dwt, built 2009, Tsuneishi Zhoushan,
C4x30T) invited offers this week and has now been committed for a
steady price in excess of $14m to Far Eastern buyers. Meanwhile,
the ‘Crown 58’ design “SKOMVAER” (58,018 dwt, built 2010,
Sinopacific Dayang, C4x36T) has been acquired by Greek buyers
for about $13m. Lastly, another United Ocean controlled vessel
“OCEAN CHIE” (52,370 dwt, built 2003, Tsuneishi Zosen, C4x30T)
has been sold for a price in the region of the mid $7ms.
In the Handysize sector, clients of Vietnamese owner Tan Binh
have purchased “ECO VANGUARD” (28,492 dwt, built 2001,
Imabari SB, C4x30T) for about $6.2m. Finally, the Handymax
“AETOS” (48,893 dwt, built 2001, I.H.I., C4x30T) was sold at
auction in South Africa for $5.5m to clients of Kon-Quest, whilst the
“DS COMMANDER” (45,518 dwt, built 1994, Tsuneishi Zosen,
C4x25T, 7,528 ldt) has been sold to Greek buyers for about $3.4m.
Baltic Sale & Purchase Assessments (weekly)
Total
Buyers:
Despite the end of the seasonal holidays approaching, activity
remains somewhat subdued in the tanker S&P market with only one
confirmed transaction to report. Clients of Sovcomflot JSC have
sold two late 90s built MR product carriers; the “AZOV SEA” (47,363
dwt, built 1998, Brod. Trogir, IMO III) and the “BERING SEA”
(47,431 dwt, built 1998, Brodosplit, IMO III), for $8.1m each to
undisclosed buyers. This transaction follows the sale of the
“BARENTS SEA” (47,431 dwt, built 1998, Brodosplit, IMO III), which
was sold last month for $8.5m and concludes the disposal of all the
90s built MR product carriers that the sellers acquired back in 2008.
(Based on max. 5-year old vessels, as published by the Baltic Exchange)
As of the 24th August 2015.
VLCC (305,000 DWT):
$80.528m
Aframax (105,000 DWT):
$44.948m
MR Product tanker (51,000 DWT):
$27.320m
Capesize (180,000 DWT):
$32.861m
Panamax (74,000 DWT):
$17.503m
Super Handy (56,000 DWT):
$15.428m
Note: Clarksons Platou brokers did not contribute to the above Baltic Sale &
Purchase Assessment rates.
ALL DATA AND INFORMATION IN THIS REPORT ARE AS REPORTED
UP TO NOON ON THE DATE OF PUBLICATION
* Includes vessels over 10,000 dwt only. Sales of bulk vessels under 10,000 dwt and of non-bulk vessels are included in "Other Sales".
Clarksons Research
i
28-Aug-15
Licenced to SIWEM00018 of BP Shipping Co Limited. Distribution is restricted; please remember to acknowledge the source. Shipping Intelligence Weekly, Issue 1186.
Licenced to SIWEM00018 of BP Shipping Co Limited. Distribution is restricted; please remember to acknowledge the source. Shipping Intelligence Weekly, Issue 1186.
Tankers:
No.
$m.
Recent Ship Sales by Vessel Type
Shuttle
Tanker
D/Hull
Vessel name
Mattea
Dwt/Unit
Blt.
Yard
Date
126,647
1997
Samsung HI
18-Aug
Price $m.
Buyers
11
Undisclosed interests
Alpine Marie
48,045
2009
Iwagi Zosen
07-Aug
22.5
Japanese interests
TankChem IMO III
Bering Sea
47,431
1998
Brodosplit
25-Aug
8.1
Undisclosed interests
TankChem IMO III
Azov Sea
47,363
1998
Brod. Trogir
25-Aug
8.1
TankChem IMO II/III
Miranda I
7,355
1995
Murakami Hide
18-Aug
rumoured
Undisclosed interests
Undisclosed interests
undisclosed
TankChem IMO II/III
Maxwell Bay*
50,352
2012
Guangzhou SY Intl
14-Aug
30
Undisclosed interests
TankChem IMO II/III
Halsted Bay*
51,371
2007
SLS Shipbuilding
14-Aug
23
Undisclosed interests
TankChem IMO III
Super Star*
51,099
2008
STX SB (Jinhae)
14-Aug
24.5
Clients of Target Marine
TankChem IMO III
Harbour Star*
51,069
2008
STX SB (Jinhae)
14-Aug
24.5
Clients of Target Marine
TankChem IMO II/III
Nordic Helsinki
13,034
2007
Sekwang H.I.
13-Aug
9
Vietnamese interests
TankChem IMO II
Eships Dugon
13,146
2007
Hyundai Mipo
12-Aug
11.2
S.American interests
TankChem IMO II
N/B RESALE HULL 25*
50,000
2016
Aker Philadelphia
11-Aug
568
Clients of Kinder Morgan
TankChem IMO II
N/B RESALE HULL 26*
50,000
2017
Aker Philadelphia
11-Aug
# Clients of Kinder Morgan
TankChem IMO II
N/B RESALE HULL 27*
50,000
2017
Aker Philadelphia
11-Aug
# Clients of Kinder Morgan
TankChem IMO II
N/B RESALE HULL 28*
50,000
2017
Aker Philadelphia
11-Aug
1965
Main Iron Works
26-Aug
undisclosed
Alaskan interests
1999
Mjellem & Karlsen
21-Aug
undisclosed
European interests
high
# Clients of Kinder Morgan
Offshore
Tug
Suiattle
Offshore
Surv
Viking II
Offshore
PSV
Skandi Fjord
1,951
1983
Kaldnes M.V.
19-Aug
1.5
Dry MPP
962 teu.
Asiaborg*
17,300
2007
Hudong Zhonghua
25-Aug
13.6
European interests
Dry MPP
962 teu.
Australiaborg*
17,356
2007
Hudong Zhonghua
25-Aug
13.6
European interests
Dry MPP
912 teu.
Macao
19,366
2010
Hudong Zhonghua
14-Aug
Container
1,900 teu.
Klaus J*
26,262
1997
Meeres-Technik
25-Aug
undisclosed
undisclosed
4,410
30
German interests
German interests
Far Eastern interests
Container
1,900 teu.
Helene J*
26,262
1997
Meeres-Technik
25-Aug
Container
2,762 teu.
Leo Osaka
43,093
2003
Koyo Dock K.K.
20-Aug
9.2
Far Eastern interests
Undisclosed interests
Container
508 teu.
Corsa
5,300
1998
J. J. Sietas
14-Aug
1.6
Undisclosed interests
Container
1,550 teu.
Hansa Kristiansand
20,630
2002
Guangzhou Wenchong
12-Aug
Container
3,429 teu.
Zim China*
45,850
1997
Howaldtswerke Werft 11-Aug
7.8
Clients of Zhongyu
Container
3,429 teu.
Zim USA*
46,350
1997
Howaldtswerke Werft 11-Aug
7.8
Clients of Zhongyu
Container
1,550 teu.
Hansa Aalesund
20,700
2001
Guangzhou Wenchong
11-Aug
6.1
Clients of Koenig
Bulk
4x25t cr.
DS Commander
45,518
1994
Tsuneishi Zosen
28-Aug
region
3.4
Greek interests
Bulk
4x30t cr.
Ocean Chie
52,370
2003
Tsuneishi Zosen
28-Aug
mid
7
Undisclosed interests
Bulk
4x30t cr.
Tennei Maru
58,693
2009
Tsuneishi Zhoushan
28-Aug
excess
14
Far Eastern interests
Bulk
Str. Hvy.
United Journey
82,580
2009
Tsuneishi Zosen
27-Aug
region
18
Clients of Thenamaris
Bulk
Str. Hvy.
Maritime Putian
73,652
2000
Imabari SB Marugame
27-Aug
region
5
Undisclosed interests
Bulk
4x30t cr.
Aetos
48,893
2001
I.H.I.
27-Aug
auction
5.5
Clients of Kon-Quest
Bulk
Gearless
Genius*
170,057
2010
Sungdong SB
26-Aug
Bulk
4x30t cr.
Gladiator*
56,785
2012
CSC Jinling Shipyard 26-Aug
Bulk
Str. Hvy.
Glorius*
171,314
2004
Hyundai Samho HI
26-Aug
# Clients of Seanergy
Bulk
Gearless
Eternus*
170,018
2010
Sungdong SB
26-Aug
# Clients of Seanergy
Bulk
Str. Hvy.
Maximus*
179,238
2011
Sungdong SB
26-Aug
# Clients of Seanergy
Bulk
Str. Hvy.
Generous*
170,024
2010
Sungdong SB
26-Aug
# Clients of Seanergy
Bulk
4x36t cr.
Mystic Striker*
56,884
2011
CSC Jinling Shipyard 26-Aug
Bulk
4x30t cr.
Eco Vanguard
28,492
2001
Imabari SB (Imabari)
25-Aug
region
6.2
Bulk
4x36t cr.
Skomvaer
58,018
2010
Sinopacific Dayang
25-Aug
region
13
Greek interests
Bulk
4x30t cr.
Great Morning
28,710
2004
Shin Kochi Jyuko
25-Aug
region
7
Vietnamese interests
Bulk
Str. Hvy.
North Fortune III
91,439
2000
Oshima SB Co
25-Aug
region
7
Undisclosed interests
Bulk
Str. Hvy.
Grain Pearl
81,630
2013
Guangzhou Longxue
21-Aug
low
17
Greek interests
Bulk
Str. Hvy.
Alpha Glory
72,270
1999
Imabari SB Marugame 20-Aug
5.3
Undisclosed interests
Bulk
4x36t cr.
Port Mouton
53,299
2006
New Century S/Y
20-Aug
6.7
Clients of St Michael
Greek interests
Clients of Costamare
undisclosed
183
Clients of Seanergy
# Clients of Seanergy
# Clients of Seanergy
Clients of Tan Binh
Bulk
4x30t cr.
Shirakami
52,224
2008
Oshima SB Co
20-Aug
10.85
Bulk
Str. Hvy.
Star Claudia
71,694
1997
Hitachi Zosen
18-Aug
3.7
Chinese interests
Bulk
Str. Hvy.
Ostende Max*
73,207
1998
Sumitomo (Yokosuka) 14-Aug
region
4.5
Undisclosed interests
Bulk
Str. Hvy.
Antwerp Max*
73,144
1998
Sumitomo (Yokosuka) 14-Aug
region
4.5
Undisclosed interests
Bulk
4x30t cr.
Force Ranger
45,950
1996
CSBC (Keelung)
region
4
Undisclosed interests
Bulk
Str. Hvy.
Pacific Wind
28,437
2007
Shimanami SB
12-Aug
8.6
Vietnamese interests
Bulk
4x30t cr.
Ma Sik Ryong
18,612
1987
Uwajima Zosen
12-Aug
at auction
1
Clients of Capeshore Maritime
Bulk
Gearless
Pinchat
81,290
2012
Hyundai HI
12-Aug
21.5
Greek interests
Bulk
4x45t cr.
N/B RESALE HULL 12024B*
64,000
2015
Sainty SB (Yangzhou) 11-Aug
19.9
Clients of Clipper Group
Bulk
4x45t cr.
N/B RESALE HULL 12025B*
64,000
2015
Sainty SB (Yangzhou) 11-Aug
19.9
Clients of Clipper Group
Bulk
Gearless
Umberto D'Amato
93,263
2011
Jiangsu New YZJ
11-Aug
14.8
Undisclosed interests
Bulk
4x36t cr.
N/B RESALE HULL HT64-209
63,800
2015
Jiangsu Hantong HI
11-Aug
22.5
Undisclosed interests
11-Aug
14-Aug
Bulk
4x30.5t cr.
Eco Wildfire
33,190
2015
Kanda S.B. Co.
Bulk
Str. Hvy.
Houheng 2
179,929
2011
HHIC-Phil (Subic SY) 07-Aug
Clients of Brave Maritime
undisclosed
31
European interests
* En bloc Sales. #En Bloc price shown under first ship of bloc.
Clarksons Research
ii
28-Aug-15
Licenced to SIWEM00018 of BP Shipping Co Limited. Distribution is restricted; please remember to acknowledge the source. Shipping Intelligence Weekly, Issue 1186.
Licenced to SIWEM00018 of BP Shipping Co Limited. Distribution is restricted; please remember to acknowledge the source. Shipping Intelligence Weekly, Issue 1186.
Vessel Type
Tanker
Fleet Changes, Bunkers & Capital Market Activity
Cargo Fleet
Oil Tanker Fleet
Changes
2014
2015 to date
No.
5,804
185
93
000 Dwt
500,864
16,576
7,629
9
83
5,887
1.4%
1,610
7,337
508,201
1.5%
No.
5,887
174
36
2
4
136
6,023
2.3%
2014
Containership Fleet
2015 to date
000 Dwt
No.
000 Dwt
No.
000 Dwt
508,201 10,102 725,412 10,398 757,157
13,241
609
48,078
457
34,556
1,838
314
16,314
306
22,468
620
6
97
470
5
115
3
310
11,553
296
31,745
148
11,778
519,755 10,398 757,157 10,546 768,935
2.3%
2.9%
4.4%
1.4%
1.6%
2014
No.
5,080
201
173
1
2
27
5,107
0.5%
2015 to date
000 Teu
17,137
1,489
384
0.5
1
1,104
18,242
6.4%
No.
5,107
136
51
000 Teu
18,242
1,143
94
85
5,192
1.7%
1,049
19,290
5.8%
Tankers and bulkcarriers over 10,000 dwt only are included in the analysis in this table. Great Lakes Only vessels are excluded.
Deliveries to the World Fleet
Type
Date
Vessel Name
Flag
Year
Dwt
Owner
Shipyard & Yard No.
Built
Bulk
Bulk
Bulk
Container
Open Hatch
AHT
AHT
Bulk
Bulk
L.P.G.
Container
L.P.G.
ROV/Sub Spt
PSV
Aug'15
Aug'15
Aug'15
Aug'15
Aug'15
Aug'15
Aug'15
Aug'15
Aug'15
Aug'15
Aug'15
Aug'15
Aug'15
Aug'15
Crew/Fast Supply Aug'15
AHTS
Aug'15
Products/MPP Aug'15
Products/MPP Aug'15
Chem & Oil
Aug'15
L.P.G.
Aug'15
Container
Aug'15
Container
Aug'15
Ethy/LPG
Aug'15
Container
Aug'15
Medi Matsuura
Mehmed Fatih
STH Athens
CMA CGM Bougainville
Port Phillip Bay
Lanpan 34
Atlantis
Great Victory
Great Progress
Kisber
OOCL Genoa
Oscar Niemeyer
Fugro Aquarius
Mamola Defender
Emily Day McCall
Tag 15
Balt Flot 3
Balt Flot 2
Bochem Luxembourg
Navigator Centauri
Mackinac Bridge
Meridian
Taugas
Orea
Regional
Bunker Prices
Rotterdam
Hamburg
Genoa
Gibraltar
Philadelphia
Houston
Cristobal
Los Angeles
Japan
Singapore
Fujairah
Activity
2015
2015
2015
2015
2015
2015
2015
2015
2015
2015
2015
2015
2015
2015
2015
2015
2015
2015
2015
2015
2015
2015
2015
2015
Price
81,788
180,025
60,508
186,528
37,595
800
200
79,933
64,000
9,000
101,400
5,079
1,250
3,310
550
1,100
5,589
5,589
19,999
16,680
145,500
30,350
15,135
25,044
Eiko Kisen
Ciner Denizcilik
Unknown
CMA-CGM
Mitsui O.S.K. Lines
Lanpan
Seacontractors
Sinotrans Shpg. Ltd.
Sinotrans Shpg. Ltd.
Petredec
OOCL
Transpetro
Fugro Brasil
Promar Shipping
Seacor Marine
TAG Offshore
Balt Flot Tanker
Balt Flot Tanker
CMB
Navigator Gas
K-Line
Schulte Group
Sloman Neptun Schiff
Eastern Med. Mar.
Average MGO Price, $/tonne
2013
2014
2015
903
937
973
972
998
997
1029
1013
927
1002
818
875
903
890
977
935
988
926
858
961
520
550
585
571
608
595
623
599
536
738
Capital Market
Shipping IPOs
Shipping Follow Ons
Shipping Bonds
Total Shipping
Total Offshore^
Total Shipyard^
PA.
MA.
M.I.
FR.
PA.
SG.
NE.
H.K.
H.K.
SG.
H.K.
BZ.
BZ.
MA.
AM.
IN.
RS.
RS.
H.K.
LI.
JA.
SG.
AT.
MA.
Tsuneishi Zosen
1545
Hanjin HI (Yeongdo) 252
$m
Mitsui Shipbuilding 1898
Samsung HI
2094
Oshima SB Co
10710
Guangxi Guijiang SY GJ01-2013-07
Damen Song Cam
511801
Jiangnan SY Group H2559
CSC Jinling Shipyard JLZ9130433 $m
Kyokuyo Shipyard
519
Hudong Zhonghua H1667A
VARD Promar
EP01
Wilson Sons
556064
Damen Gorinchem 552038
C & G Boat Works
126
ESS110111
Nanjing East Star
Okskaya Shipyard
5403
Okskaya Shipyard
5402
Kitanihon Zosen
602
Jiangnan SY Group 2554
$m
Imabari SB Hiroshima 2535
Zhejiang Yangfan
2297
$m
STX SB (Jinhae)
4033
$m
Huangpu Wenchong 446
Average 380 cst Price, $/tonne
Aug 21 Aug 28
433
473
503
488
495
480
540
515
423
673
Contracted
402
427
472
459
455
470
500
490
415
643
2013
2014
2015
594
605
617
622
615
602
618
631
657
616
617
533
543
561
557
577
547
561
570
607
561
563
295
305
319
317
334
306
317
317
376
325
327
Number
Aug 21 Aug 28
228
236
251
248
263
231
239
260
285
243
249
199
208
215
221
228
213
204
255
248
216
211
55.00
25.80
45.00
25.50
33.00
Prices This
Week (380 cst)
DOWN...
DOWN...
DOWN...
DOWN...
DOWN...
DOWN...
DOWN...
DOWN...
DOWN...
DOWN...
DOWN...
-12.5%
-11.7%
-14.3%
-10.7%
-13.3%
-7.8%
-14.6%
-1.9%
-13.0%
-11.1%
-15.3%
Trends
$ Million
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
8
13
66
87
73
16
5
16
67
88
76
28
15
60
61
136
97
15
15
56
54
125
78
23
6
24
18
48
15
5
1,016
1,750
12,253
15,019
21,456
3,716
614
3,037
13,473
17,123
20,762
10,761
2,969
6,735
11,304
21,008
19,091
3,007
1,637
8,260
10,178
20,075
15,619
6,879
514
2,444
2,696
5,654
2,609
1,101
This Year
DOWN...
DOWN...
DOWN...
DOWN...
DOWN...
DOWN...
-53%
-56%
-61%
-58%
-75%
-76%
Data includes companies whose core activity is owning merchant vessels, offshore units, or shipbuilding. ^Totals for Offshore and Shipyard activity include IPOs, follow ons,
and bonds. Trends this year based on annualised figures for this year against last year. For further information see Shipping Intelligence Network and Capital Market Monthly.
Clarksons Research
iii
28-Aug-15
Licenced to SIWEM00018 of BP Shipping Co Limited. Distribution is restricted; please remember to acknowledge the source. Shipping Intelligence Weekly, Issue 1186.
Licenced to SIWEM00018 of BP Shipping Co Limited. Distribution is restricted; please remember to acknowledge the source. Shipping Intelligence Weekly, Issue 1186.
(No. Vessels , 000dwt/teu)
Fleet 1st January
Deliveries
Changes:
Sold For Scrap
Misc. Additions
Misc.Removals/Losses
Net Change During Year
Fleet End Yr/ Yr to Date
% Change Since Start Year
Bulk Carrier Fleet
Timecharter Fixture Record
Latest Tanker Timecharter Fixtures...
Reported
Charterer
Vessel Name
D/
Year
Dwt
17-Aug
Scorpio
17-Aug
07-Aug
Hamburg Star
Ice LR
Ext.
Period
equiv.
Rate
$ per Day
Delivery
Date
Place
D
2005
73,869
2 Yrs
$20,000
Aug 15
West
Koch
Overseas Mykonos D
2010
51,711
6 Mths
low $17,000
Aug 15
ARA
Penfield
SN Azzura
D
2003
72,365
2 Yrs
circa $20,000
Aug 15
07-Aug
Penfield
SN Federica
D
2003
72,344
2 Yrs
circa $20,000
Aug 15
07-Aug
Navig8
FD Sea Wish
C
2002
40,081
2 Yrs
$16,500
Sep 15
Med
07-Aug
Unipec
Taga
D
2004
303,430
1 Yr + 1 Yr
$45,000
Aug 15
Spore
23-Jul
Scorpio
Valfoglia/Vallesnia
D
2009
109,060
1 Yr
$26,000 net
Aug 15
21-Jul
UPT
Cape Bille
C
2003
35,089
2 Yrs
$15,200 + pshare Oct 15
21-Jul
UPT
Cape Bruny
C
2004
39,999
2 Yrs
$15,200 + pshare Oct 15
20-Jul
Cargill
Jing Yu Zuo
C
2010
75,568
20-Jul
Koch
Bright Dawn
C
2007
50,650
1D
1 Yr
$20,250
Jul 15
South China
3 Mths
$21,000
Jul 15
East Med
Singapore
13-Jul
Shell
Baltic Glory
D
2005
309,375
2 Yrs
low $30,000's + pshare
Jul 15
13-Jul
Shell
Baltic Sunrise
D
2005
309,375
2 Yrs
low $30,000's + pshare
Jul 15
Singapore
13-Jul
Shell
Hua Lin Wan
D
2012
109,475
1 Yr
RNR
Jul 15
China
10-Jul
Koch
Turris
C
2004
70,426
2 Yrs
$20,500
Dec 15
07-Jul
Koch
New Century
C
2005
73,901
1 Yr
$22,500
Jul 15
D/C
02-Jul
Koch
Fulham Road
C
2013
74,500
1 Yr
$26,000
Jul 15
West
02-Jul
Koch
Kondor
D
2011
297,974
2 Yrs
$44,000
Aug 15
Singapore
02-Jul
Navig8
Aldebaran
C
2014
37,886
6 Mths
$18,750
Jul 15
East Med
02-Jul
Navig8
Superba
C
2014
39,700
6 Mths
$18,750
Jul 15
Central Mediterranean
29-Jun
Scorpio
Jenny I
D
2003
40,128
1 Yr
$16,000
Jul 15
East Med
25-Jun
Cargill
Gan-Tribute
C
2010
51,556
1 Yr
$17,000
Aug 15
Singapore
25-Jun
ST Shipping
United Ambassador D
2007
73,584
1 Yr
$22,000/$24,000
Jun 15
US Gulf
05-Jun
Petrochina
Green Warrior
2011
104,604
60-90 Days
$36,500
Jun 15
02-Jun
Koch
St Jacobi
C
2014
50,209
6 Mths
$18,000/$18,500
Jun 15
02-Jun
Koch
Swarna Mala
C
2010
51,277
1 Yr
$16,750
Jun 15
29-May
Shell
DS Vector
D
2001
298,990
1 Yr
$43,500
Jun 15
28-May
Shell
MR Pegasus
C
2009
50,070
6 Mths
$17,250
Jun 15
D
1D
Latest Dry Bulk Timecharter Fixtures...
Reported
Charterer
Vessel Name
Year
Dwt
Cbm
Gear
Period
Built
Rate
$ per Day
Place
26-Aug
Panoceanic
Thor Fortune
2011
54,250
63,847
25-Aug
Transgrain
Alcyon
2001
75,247
89,000
24-Aug
Polaris
Akili
2001
52,301
24-Aug
Klaveness
Viola
2008
24-Aug
Glencore
Crystalia
2014
24-Aug
Graincom
Diamond Ocean
21-Aug
Jaldhi
Shandong Hai Xing
21-Aug
Louis Dreyfus
Pictor
21-Aug
Cobelfret
Maritime King
21-Aug
Louis Dreyfus
Bulk Pegasus
2009
58,736
72,360
4C x 30T
3-5 Months
$14,250
Prompt
US Gulf
20-Aug
Trammo
Thor Independence
2001
52,407
67,756
4C x 30T
4-6 Months
$11,500
21Aug-25Aug
Liverpool
20-Aug
Cargill
Western Wilton
2011
57,981
71,549
4C x 36T
3-5 Months
$8,250
Prompt
CJK
19-Aug
Refined Success
Santa Julia
2009
55,701
70,855
4C x 30T
3-5 Months
$12,000
Prompt
East Med
17-Aug
Phaethon
Shi Zi Shan
2011
56,605
71,634
4C x 30T
5-7 Months
$11,500
Prompt
Antwerp
17-Aug
Hudson
Red Gardenia
2005
76,294
91,357
4-8 Months
$7,000
14Aug-16Aug
Zhoushan
17-Aug
China Shipping
Artemis
2006
76,942
92,128
1 Years
$7,500
Prompt
CJK
17-Aug
United
Pedhoulas Farmer
2012
81,541
96,072
5-8 Months
$9,100
14Aug-15Aug
Krishnapatnam
17-Aug
CNR
Star Nasia
2006
82,220
97,233
5-8 Months
$9,000
Prompt
Rizhao
17-Aug
EGPN
Concordia
2011
82,499
96,170
4-6 Months
$9,000
16Aug-18Aug
Tachibana
17-Aug
EDF
Barock
2007
82,668
97,233
2 Years
$8,300
14Aug-15Aug
Tianjin
14-Aug
Norden
Navios Aldebaran
2008
76,529
90,740
5-8 Months
$8,000
17Aug-20Aug
Singapore
14-Aug
Oldendorff
Medi Taipei
2003
76,633
89,384
14-Aug
CNR
Zhe Hai 505
2011
35,130
44,000
14-Aug
Bunge
Spar Lynx
2005
53,565
65,730
4C x 36T
4-6 Months
$9,500
17Aug-21Aug
Buenaventura
14-Aug
Glovis
NM Sakura
2015
60,948
77,240
4C x 30T
3-5 Months
$15,750
23Aug-28Aug
Sw Passage
13-Aug
Ultrabulk
Ocean Bloom
2012
38,233
47,125
4C x 30T
4-6 Months
$9,000
Prompt
East Med
13-Aug
Oldendorff
Simge Aksoy
2006
53,393
65,752
4C x 36T
3-5 Months
$7,900
Prompt
Persiangulf
Clarksons Research
4C x 36T
3-5 Months
8-11 Months
67,756
4C x 30T
4-6 Months
58,729
72,360
4C x 30T
10-15 Months
$8.1k, $6k 1st 30 days
Prompt
Singapore
77,525
90,725
10-13 Months
$9,000
28Aug
Sual
2014
81,200
97,138
4-6 Months
$8,500
Prompt
Kagoshima
2014
75,491
92,070
4-8 Months
$8,000
30Aug
Taiwan
2002
76,598
90,740
6-9 Months
$7,700
24Aug-25Aug
CJK
2011
95,675
109,476
6-8 Months
$8,250
30Aug-05Sep
Zhoushan
iv
4C x 30T
$14,000
Delivery
Date
Prompt
US Gulf
$7,600
22Aug
PG
$8,250
Prompt
Mesaieed
4-8 Months
$8,000
20Aug-22Aug
Zhoushan
4-6 Months
$8,000
19Aug-25Aug
Durban
28-Aug-15
Licenced to SIWEM00018 of BP Shipping Co Limited. Distribution is restricted; please remember to acknowledge the source. Shipping Intelligence Weekly, Issue 1186.
Licenced to SIWEM00018 of BP Shipping Co Limited. Distribution is restricted; please remember to acknowledge the source. Shipping Intelligence Weekly, Issue 1186.
C Built
The Timecharter Market
Tanker Timecharter Market
VLCC (Modern)
28
42,500
32,814
23,729
19,586
15,893
14,764
43,500
33,500
25,000
22,500
17,000
16,250
30,827 27,481 32,154 41,400
18,423 16,856 20,317 23,257
14,962 15,567 16,063 16,007
40,000
23,000
16,500
Total Fixtures
To Date
60
1 Year t/c
20
50
16
40
12
30
8
20
4
10
0
0
Jul-15
30,183
24,413
19,029
16,466
15,399
14,678
70
Spot $/day
24
May-15
23,404
18,096
15,048
15,514
15,063
13,707
$,000/day
Mar-15
26,995
20,952
15,870
14,168
14,389
13,178
28
Jan-15
48,000
36,000
29,000
27,000
20,000
17,500
Nov-14
46,886
35,014
25,229
22,414
17,086
15,193
Sep-14
28,115
22,712
17,538
15,880
14,630
13,774
Jul-14
19,837
16,014
13,288
14,981
14,351
13,063
May-14
22,125
17,356
13,639
12,995
13,514
12,317
No. fixtures
Mar-14
2015
Jan-14
2014
Nov-13
2013
T/C Activity…
...over 1 year
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
VLCC
200,000 +
Suezmax
120-200,000
Aframax
80-120,000
Panamax
60-80,000
Handy
10-60,000
Total No. Fixtures
13
13
12
10
60
108
26
20
21
21
108
196
12
14
42
27
139
234
30
25
61
28
101
245
42
27
38
20
72
199
Total in m. dwt
10.9
19.9
18.9
26.5
26.4
Tanker timecharter activity this week…
The guideline one year VLCC timecharter rate declined
by 2% w-o-w to stand at $48,000/day, although this is
still significantly higher than the 2014 annual average.
Meanwhile, the one year timecharter rate for an MR
also fell this week to $20,000/day, taking the year to
date average to $17,086/day.
Aug
T/C Activity & The Freight Market
•
Estimated owners' rates. Modern=no more than 10 years old.
Bulk Carrier Timecharter Market
18
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Capesize
100,000 +
Panamax
65-100,000
Handymax
40-65,000
Handysize
10-40,000
Total No. Fixtures
32
72
36
7
147
20
55
18
3
96
33
78
11
1
123
61
70
9
3
143
25
31
2
0
58
Total in m. dwt
13.6
8.9
12.7
16.8
6.4
Total Fixtures
To Date
Tanker and bulk carrier T/C activity size ranges reflect existing CRSL ship type definitions.
Modern is taken to mean no more than 10 years old. A wider selection of bulkcarrier
timecharter rates are available on Shipping Intelligence Network at www.clarksons.net.
Page 9
12
30
10
25
8
20
6
15
4
10
2
5
0
0
Jul-15
11,500
9,200
8,250
7,250
35
May-15
16,798 17,303 21,038 12,891
11,798 10,870 13,935 9,911
11,755 10,928 11,428 8,429
10,250 9,385
9,519
7,429
14
Mar-15
11,250
8,400
8,250
7,000
16
Jan-15
15,082 16,413 20,889 11,466
10,688 10,125 13,050 8,628
10,995 10,284 11,385 8,207
9,250
8,726
9,346
7,236
$,000/day 45
1 Year t/c
40
Spot $/day
Nov-14
10,625
8,200
8,500
6,750
No. fixtures
Jul-13
13,685 15,760 21,751 10,361
9,706 10,099 12,035 7,617
10,130 10,034 11,385 7,936
8,234
8,106
9,012
6,857
T/C Activity…
...over 1 year
Clarksons Research
Capesize (Modern)
28
Sep-14
2015
Jul-14
2014
May-14
2013
Mar-14
2012
One Year Timecharter…
Capesize
Modern
Panamax
Modern
Supramax
Modern
Handysize
Modern
Three Year Timecharter…
Capesize
Modern
Panamax
Modern
Supramax
Modern
Handysize
Modern
Five Year Timecharter…
Capesize
Modern
Panamax
Modern
Supramax
Modern
Handysize
Modern
Jan-14
(Average Pac/Atl Delivery)
Nov-13
Average Rate $/day To Date
Sep-13
Timecharter Rates
•
Bulk carrier timecharter activity this week…
The 2008-built Supramax “VIOLA” was chartered by
Klaveness this week for 10-15 months at $6,000/day
for the first 30 days, followed by an increase to
$8,100/day for the remaining period. Other activity
included the 2014 built Panamax “CRYSTALIA”
chartered by Glencore for 10-13 months at $9,000/day.
28-Aug-15
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2012
One Year Timecharter
310,000 Dwt
Modern
150,000 Dwt
Modern
110,000 Dwt
Modern
74,000 Dwt
Modern
47-48,000 Dwt Modern
37,000 Dwt
Modern
Three Year Timecharter
310,000 Dwt
Modern
150,000 Dwt
Modern
110,000 Dwt
Modern
74,000 Dwt
Modern
47-48,000 Dwt Modern
37,000 Dwt
Modern
Five Year Timecharter
310,000 Dwt
Modern
110,000 Dwt
Modern
47-48,000 Dwt Modern
T/C Activity & The Freight Market
Aug
Sep-13
Average Rate $/day To Date
Jul-13
Timecharter Rates
The Shipbuilding Market
What's Been Ordered...
Type
Tanker
Tanker
Tanker
Tanker
Tanker
Tanker
Tanker
Chem & Oil
Chem & Oil
Chem & Oil
Bulk
Bulk
Bulk
Bulk
Wind T. (SE)
PSV
PSV
Tanker
Tanker
Chem & Oil
Chem & Oil
Chem & Oil
Chem & Oil
Date
Aug-15
Aug-15
Aug-15
Aug-15
Aug-15
Aug-15
Aug-15
Aug-15
Aug-15
Aug-15
Aug-15
Aug-15
Aug-15
Aug-15
Aug-15
Aug-15
Aug-15
Aug-15
Aug-15
Aug-15
Aug-15
Aug-15
Aug-15
Dwt/Unit
320,000
320,000
320,000
320,000
320,000
320,000
320,000
25,000
25,000
25,000
39,300
39,300
39,300
39,300
Delivery
2018
2018
2019
2018
2019
2018
2018
2018
2018
2018
2017
2017
2017
2017
Jan 2018
Mar 2017
Jun 2017
Sep 2017
Dec 2017
Jan 2017
Mar 2017
Apr 2017
Jun 2017
3,000
3,000
115,000
115,000
50,000
50,000
50,000
50,000
Builder
Price
Mitsui Shipbuilding
Mitsui Shipbuilding
Mitsui Shipbuilding
Mitsui Shipbuilding
Mitsui Shipbuilding
JMU Ariake Shipyard
JMU Ariake Shipyard
Shin Kurushima
Shin Kurushima
Shin Kurushima
Jiangmen Nanyang
Jiangmen Nanyang
Jiangmen Nanyang
Jiangmen Nanyang
Xiamen Shipbuilding
Arctech Shipyard
Arctech Shipyard
Samsung HI
Samsung HI
Hyundai Mipo
Hyundai Mipo
Hyundai Mipo
Hyundai Mipo
Eur.m
Eur.m
$m
$m
$m
$m
$m
$m
125.00
125.00
55.00
55.00
35.70
35.70
35.70
35.70
Owner/Manager*
Mitsui & Co
Mitsui & Co
Mitsui & Co
Nissen Kaiun K.K.
Nissen Kaiun K.K.
K-Line
Iino Kaiun Kaisha
Tokyo Marine Co. Ltd
Tokyo Marine Co. Ltd
Tokyo Marine Co. Ltd
Unknown Chinese
Unknown Chinese
Unknown Chinese
Unknown Chinese
Unknown Chinese
Mintrans Russia
Mintrans Russia
Unisea Shipping Ltd.
Unisea Shipping Ltd.
Scorpio Tankers
Scorpio Tankers
Scorpio Tankers
Scorpio Tankers
S=Status, where: 5=confirmed order, 16=unconfirmed order, 17=option. Other units are: teu for containerships, cbm for gas vessels, numbers of cars or passengers.
* The Primary Reference Company, as used in the Clarkson Fleet Database i.e. the company with the main commercial responsibility for the ship.
Shipbuilding News
Three Month
Trend ...
2012
2013
2014
Aug
320,000 dwt
157,000 dwt
115,000 dwt
51,000 dwt
93.0
56.5
48.0
34.0
94.0
59.5
52.3
34.8
97.0
65.0
54.0
36.8
95.5
64.5
53.0
35.5
WEAKER...
WEAKER...
WEAKER...
WEAKER...
-0.9%
-0.5%
-0.6%
-1.4%
180,000 dwt
76,000 dwt
62,000 dwt
35,000 dwt
46.0
25.8
24.3
21.0
53.5
27.8
26.5
22.3
54.0
29.0
27.0
23.0
48.5
26.3
24.8
21.0
WEAKER...
WEAKER...
WEAKER...
WEAKER...
-4.6%
-3.1%
-2.6%
-2.7%
82,000m³
160,000m³
70.0
199.5
74.5
198.0
79.0
200.0
77.0 WEAKER...
200.0 SAME.......
-0.2%
13,000 teu
2,750 teu
Pure Car Carrier 6,000 ceu
Clarkson Index
107.0
30.5
64.5
126
113.5
31.5
66.5
133
116.0
32.5
64.0
138
116.0
30.5
59.0
133
200
2013
2014
2015
88
156
56
39
357
81
67
45
1
557
8
38
28
1,521
206
323
122
46
1,254
279
93
57
2
584
5
63
24
3,058
169
193
110
72
759
146
87
30
7
420
7
54
19
2,073
145
45
16
22
66
125
50
24
FIRMER...
WEAK….
WEAK….
WEAK….
WEAK….
FIRMER...
WEAK….
FIRMER...
31%
-64%
-78%
-53%
-87%
30%
-12%
22%
190
95
1
18
4
611
WEAK….
WEAK….
WEAK….
WEAK….
WEAK….
-66%
-78%
-49%
-68%
-55%
110
180
170
160
150
140
130
Ten year trend in
newbuilding
prices
120
Jul-15
Jul-14
Jul-13
Jul-12
100
Jul-11
Trend ...
2012
Index, Jan'88 = 100
Jul-10
Oil Tankers
Chemical & Spec. Tankers
LPG Carriers
LNG Carriers
Bulk Carriers
Containerships
General Cargo Vessels
Ro-Ro Vessels
Refrigerated Vessels
Offshore Vessels
FPSO/FSU
Passenger & Cruise Ships
Other Misc. Vessels
TOTAL CONTRACTING
Newbuilding Price Index
Year-on-Year
Jul-09
Activity ....
Vessels Contracted
momentum in terms of ongoing discussion, for the first
time in some months we have no fresh orders to report
this week. As we come to the end of the traditionally
quiet summer period, it is an opportune time to briefly
review ordering activity in 2015 so far. A total of 611
newbuilding contracts have been placed in the ytd,
compared to over 1,650 orders signed over the same
period in 2014. Just over 10% of this year’s contracts
have been placed in the dry bulk sector with the vast
majority of orders for Handysize up to Post-Panamax
bulkers. Crude tankers make up around a sixth of
orders in 2015 so far with interest split across the
Aframax, Suezmax and VLCC sectors, though the latter
has seen the largest number of orders (around 45
units). The product carrier market, including MR tankers
up to LR2 ships, has seen around 50 orders and
around 25 chemical tankers (<40,000 dwt) have been
ordered. Boxship orders account for around a fifth of
the ytd total, with interest for 1,800 TEU feeders up to
21,000 TEU behemoths. Most sizes inbetween have
also seen some activity.
Jul-08
Newbuilding
SAME.......
WEAKER... -0.5%
WEAKER... -1.4%
WEAKER.... -0.2%
• Whilst the newbuilding market maintains some
Jul-07
Tankers
VLCC
Suezmax
Aframax
'MR' Tanker
Bulk Carriers
Capesize
Panamax
Handymax
Handysize
Gas Vessels
LPG
LNG
Dry Cargo
Container
Container
Jul-06
Prices ....
Year End, $m.
Jul-05
Newbuilding
Newbuilding prices vary as to country of build, delivery and ship specification. Prices here are end year/latest and from Jun-08 assume a "European spec", 20/20/20/20/20% payments and "first class competitive
yards" quotations, and relate to market contracts where these have taken place and to brokers' best estimates when no contracts have occurred. 3-month trend basis last 3 vs previous 3 months.
Clarksons Research
Page 10
28-Aug-15
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S
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
17
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
The Demolition Market
What's Been Scrapped...
Date
Vessel Name
Aug '15
Aug '15
Aug '15
Aug '15
Aug '15
Aug '15
Aug '15
Aug '15
Aug '15
Aug '15
Aug '15
Aug '15
Aug '15
Aug '15
Aug '15
Aug '15
Aug '15
Aug '15
Aug '15
Aug '15
Aug '15
Aug '15
Aug '15
Cape Falcon
Matsura Maru
Preventer
Rebekka N
Mex III
Ralda
Zhen Fen 15
GSO Marechal Rondon
Beka 3
Ocean Explorer
Falcon Explorer
Samskip Akrafell
Star Atlantic
Fugro Gemini
Jade Fish
Hercules
Bei Lun Hai 36
Gofer B
C. Royal
Chang Bai Shan
Aurelia
Marine 1
E. Karakaya
Scrap
Prices...
Flag
Year End ($/ldt)
BR.
JA.
PA.
LI.
KN.
PA.
PRC
PA.
BR.
BS.
PA.
CY.
NIS
PA.
BL.
NE.
PRC
PA.
KO.
PRC
NE.
TG.
S.L
Blt
1993
1990
1990
1990
1989
1981
1992
1975
1973
1979
1985
2003
1986
1987
1982
1977
1990
1983
1996
1986
1971
1992
1991
305
-32%
525
320
-24%
500
Latest
Tankers
420
435
450
Dry Cargo
405
425
420
Note: The scrap prices ($/ldt) are based on Indian prices for VLCC tankers and a
Handy dry bulk carrier of around 8,000 ldt.
This Year
%
$ m.
295.0
331.0
325.0
5.69
325.0
5.85
11.57
US$ per ldt
425
400
2014
2015
China
12.1
11.1
8.3
4.7
-15%
350
India
18.3
11.8
8.8
5.1
-14%
325
Bangladesh
13.6
11.8
6.9
9.0
93%
Pakistan
10.2
9.4
6.9
6.0
28%
Other
4.2
2.7
2.6
3.4
90%
TOTAL
58.5
46.8
33.6
28.2
28%
375
Year (m dwt)
2012
2013
2014
This Year
2015
2.7
5.0
2.7
0.5
Tankers - India
Handy Bulk - India
Tankers - Bangladesh
300
275
250
Aug Oct Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug
'13 '13 '13 '14 '14 '14 '14 '14 '14 '15 '15 '15 '15
Demolition Market News
%
Tankers
VLCC
17,992
$/ldt
450
2013
Type...
3,280
11,948
Buyer
Old sale
India
India
Pakistan
India
Bangladesh
PRC
Old sale
Old sale
Denmark
Denmark
Old sale
Old sale
Unknown
India
Turkey
Old sale
Turkey
Pakistan
Old sale
Old sale
Old sale
Belgium
475
2012
Size &
7,726
Owner
Zodiac Maritime Agy
Hachiuma Steamship
SNP Shipping Service
Neu Seeschiffahrt
Unknown
Shipmate
CSCL
Vestland Marine
Hempel Shipping
PGS
PGS
Samskip H/F
Grieg Star
Fugro Survey
Trinity Offshore
Van Oord
Ningbo Longsheng Sh.
Beserler Denizcilik
Chang Myung Shipping
Guangzhou Zhenhua
Unknown
Unknown
Unknown
Scrapping Price Trends
550
2014
Activity...
35,615
11,557
8,169
5,260
7,148
%
2013
Year (m dwt)
Ldt
19,574
19,280
This Year
2012
Buyer
Dwt
161,475
139,999
69,995
249,378
44,575
31,543
19,753
965
1,755
2,632
1,329
5,565
30,402
143
1,440
840
65,702
4,800
151,044
39,036
-70%
Suezmax
3.0
1.0
1.1
Aframax
3.5
2.4
2.4
0.2
Handy
2.3
2.3
1.8
1.1
-8%
< 10,000 dwt
0.2
0.1
0.1
0.0
-75%
Total Tankers
11.9
10.8
8.0
1.9
-66%
-100%
-88%
Bulkcarriers
Capesize
11.7
7.9
4.2
12.3
330%
Panamax
8.7
5.0
4.8
4.5
39%
Handymax
4.7
3.5
3.0
2.0
-2%
Handysize
8.3
6.7
4.2
3.7
32%
Total Bulkers
Containerships
33.4
5.0
23.1
6.3
16.2
5.5
22.5
1.4
106%
-62%
Gas Vessels
0.2
0.4
0.3
0.2
9%
Other Dry
8.0
6.2
3.6
2.2
-7%
TOTAL
58.5
46.8
33.6
28.2
24%
• Strike while the iron is hot! This is the market feeling as prices
for tonnage heading to India have risen significantly from previous
weeks’ levels. Owners may benefit from this improved sentiment if
they move quickly as it is not clear how long it will last. This
reversal in sentiment has come as a major surprise - despite a
stronger domestic steel market, the continued depreciation of the
Rupee makes the Indian demolition market very hard to predict.
Currently, Indian scrap rates are around $20/ldt higher than those
in Bangladesh and Pakistan, making it the likely destination for
new tonnage, specifically the more conventional units. However,
as illustrated by the reported sales, a larger ldt unit will still attract
some serious competition from Pakistan. With no beaching tides
to aim for, no major custom formalities prior to tendering the
Notice of Readiness and cheaper port dues, the waterfront at
Gadani can still attract owners who are not aiming for ‘green’
standards of recycling. While 75 Capesize bulkers have now been
sold for scrap this year, it is highly unlikely that the Bangladeshi
market will see many more units arriving to its shores as the cartel
currently in place is seeking price levels considerably lower than
in other recycling destinations.
* The % change is based on annualised figures for this year against last year.
Clarksons Research
Page 11
28-Aug-15
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Type
Bulk
Bulk
Bulk
Ore
Tanker
Tanker
Bulk
Supply
Supply
Seis. Survey
Seis. Survey
MPP
Open Hatch
Research
AHTS
CS/BW Dredger
Bulk
MPP
Bulk
Bulk
Standby Safety
PCC
MPP
Economic Indicators
Germany Euro Area
0.9%
-0.8%
2.1%
-0.5%
1.6%
0.9%
1.5%
0.9%
1.0%
1.0%
1.6%
1.2%
1.6%
1.5%
1.7%
1.7%
World
3.4%
3.4%
3.4%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
3.3%
3.8%
Industrial Production*: OECD
Europe
-2.7%
-0.8%
0.5%
2.4%
OECD
-0.1%
0.4%
2.0%
1.0%
1.4%
0.0%
0.0%
Industrial Production*: Asia
25
India
1.5%
0.4%
1.2%
2.7%
3.8%
0.0%
Ind. Production*: E.Europe & S. America
-10
-15
Atlantic
-20
Pacific
Currency Trends Spot ~ & Forward# ...
Jan '15
Jan '14
Jan '13
120
110
100
90
80
Aug '15
Australia
0.97
1.13
1.11
1.29
1.35
1.37
1.40
130
Jul '15
India
54.96
62.07
61.04
63.85
63.69
65.12
66.00
$/Sterling
$/Yen
$/Euro
140
May '15
28-Aug
150
Apr '15
#Forward Rates as of:
Index Jan'00=100
Jan '15
China
6.24
6.07
6.16
6.20
6.21
6.35
6.41
SDR
1.54
1.54
1.49
1.40
1.40
1.40
1.41
Jan '12
Exchange Rate Trends
Norway
5.58
6.15
6.30
7.79
8.12
8.27
8.31
Mar '15
H.Kong Singapore
7.75
1.22
7.76
1.27
7.75
1.27
7.75
1.34
7.75
1.36
7.75
1.40
7.75
1.40
Switz.
0.91
0.90
0.91
0.93
0.95
0.97
0.96
Jan '14
R.o K.
1,072.2
1,059.3
1,052.3
1,109.9
1,149.9
1,177.7
1,185.2
Japan
85.93
104.70
105.77
123.71
123.34
123.37
120.70
120.65
119.80
Nov '13
end:
2012
2013
2014
Jun
Jul
Aug
28-Aug
U.K.
1.61
1.64
1.65
1.56
1.56
1.55
1.54
1.54
1.54
Oct '13
Euro
1.32
1.37
1.33
1.13
1.10
1.11
1.12
1.13
1.14
Sep '13
end:
2012
2013
2014
Jun
Jul
Aug
28-Aug
3mo.#
12mo.#
Jan '11
-25
Jan '10
Brazil
-2.6%
1.2%
-3.1%
-8.9%
-3.2%
0.0%
Dec '14
Poland Argentina
1.4%
-1.1%
2.3%
-0.1%
3.5%
-2.5%
2.8%
-0.9%
7.6%
1.0%
3.7%
0.6%
0
-5
Jan '09
Hungary
-1.7%
1.8%
7.1%
6.2%
5.9%
0.0%
5
Oct '14
Czech.
-1.1%
0.6%
5.1%
2.1%
8.0%
0.0%
10
Jan '08
Russia
2.7%
-0.2%
1.7%
-5.4%
-4.7%
-4.6%
15
Sep '14
avg:
2012
2013
2014
May '15
Jun '15
Jul '15
20
Jan '07
Thailand Malaysia
7.2%
4.0%
-3.1%
2.7%
-4.6%
5.1%
-7.6%
4.5%
-8.0%
4.4%
0.0%
0.0%
Aug '14
Taiwan
0.2%
0.9%
6.2%
-3.5%
-1.4%
-3.0%
Jan '06
China
10.0%
9.7%
8.3%
6.1%
6.8%
6.0%
Jun '14
R.o K.
1.8%
-0.2%
0.0%
-2.8%
1.2%
0.0%
30
Jan '05
avg:
2012
2013
2014
May '15
Jun '15
Jul '15
Industrial Production
% change
May '14
Japan
0.0%
-0.7%
2.1%
-3.9%
2.3%
0.0%
Jan '04
USA
3.5%
2.6%
4.1%
1.4%
1.3%
1.3%
Apr '14
U.K.
-2.3%
-0.1%
1.9%
2.1%
1.5%
0.0%
Jan '03
avg:
Germany
-0.6%
2012
0.2%
2013
1.2%
2014
2.2%
May '15
0.6%
Jun '15
0.0%
Jul '15
Feb '14
USA
2.3%
2.2%
2.4%
2.4%
2.9%
2.3%
2.5%
3.0%
Jan '02
Japan
1.5%
1.6%
-0.1%
-0.8%
-0.9%
0.7%
0.8%
1.2%
Jan '01
China
7.8%
7.8%
7.4%
7.3%
7.0%
7.0%
6.8%
6.3%
Jan '00
2012
2013
2014
4Q14
1Q15
2Q15
2015 (f)
2016 (f)
•
Stock markets in China and across the world showed
further volatility this week. After severe declines in the
Shanghai Composite Index early in the week, China
lowered its benchmark interest rate by 0.25 percentage
points to 4.6%; the fifth cut since November 2014. By the
end of the week, the Shanghai Composite Index had
recovered some of the week’s losses, but is still down by
almost 20% from mid-August. Positive indicators for the US
economy also helped to support markets towards the end
of this week. US economic growth is now reported to have
reached an annualised q-o-q rate of 3.7% in Q2 2015, up
from the previous estimate of 2.3%, reflecting greater
corporate investment than previously estimated. Strong
consumer and government spending, as well as higher
exports have supported the acceleration in US economic
growth since Q1, when expansion of 0.6% was recorded.
*% change year-on-year. Source: IMF, OECD, The Economist. ~Currency units per US$ except £, Euro and SDR.
Interest Rate Trends ...
Inflation & Prices …
Prime Lending Rates:
avg:
2012
2013
2014
Jun
Jul
Aug
28-Aug
Euro
U.K.
China
Japan
U.S.A.
0.88%
0.54%
0.16%
0.05%
0.05%
0.05%
0.05%
1.50%
1.50%
1.50%
1.50%
1.50%
1.50%
1.50%
6.26%
6.00%
5.95%
5.10%
4.85%
4.79%
4.60%
1.48%
1.48%
1.48%
1.48%
1.48%
1.48%
1.48%
3.25%
3.25%
3.25%
3.25%
3.25%
3.25%
3.25%
Clarksons Research
Prices in $/bbl or $/t
Consumer Prices
$ Libor
6 mths.
0.69%
0.41%
0.33%
0.44%
0.46%
0.52%
0.53%
Page 12
avg:
2012
2013
2014
May
June
July
Latest
Eur
USA
Japan
OECD
2.9%
1.9%
1.1%
0.9%
0.7%
0.0%
0.0%
2.1%
1.5%
1.6%
0.0%
0.1%
0.2%
0.0%
0.0%
0.4%
2.7%
0.5%
0.4%
0.0%
0.0%
2.3%
1.6%
1.7%
0.6%
0.6%
0.0%
0.0%
Crude
Grain
Steel
Oil
Wheat
Ship Plate
Brent
USG
Japan
110.57
108.24
98.34
62.58
60.65
52.69
47.14
333
322
302
234
235
217
214
686
621
592
520
520
520
480
28-Aug-15
Licenced to SIWEM00018 of BP Shipping Co Limited. Distribution is restricted; please remember to acknowledge the source. Shipping Intelligence Weekly, Issue 1186.
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GDP Growth & Forecasts*
Ship Demand Trends
33
3.5
2.6
2.1
2.2
17.8
7%
-3%
6%
-1%
2%
6.1
6.1
4.9
38.2
5.1
5.8
5.1
36.8
4.5
5.5
5.6
36.1
4.2
5.7
6.1
36.8
-6%
4%
7%
2%
1.5
2.5
1.7
7.4
19.2
1.6
2.6
1.7
7.8
20.1
1.4
2.5
1.8
7.9
20.3
1.3
2.6
2.0
8.2
21.1
-4%
5%
10%
4%
4%
Crude Oil Trade
Imports:
USA (seaborne)
EU-5
China
Total Seaborne Imports
Products Trade
Imports:
USA
EU-5
Latin America
Asia
Total Seaborne Imports
30
30
29
20
28
10
27
0
Jul-15
3.3
2.7
2.0
2.2
17.4
40
Apr-15
3.0
2.9
2.0
2.5
17.9
31
Jan-15
to China
to Japan
to Korea
to USA/UKC
Total Gulf Crude Exports
50
Jul-14
2.8
2.9
2.1
2.6
17.9
VLCC Demand
AG Exports
32
Oct-14
1%
7%
1%
0%
1%
4%
Apr-14
94.5
12.4
29.7
5.3
7.6
3.1
Jul-12
93.2
11.6
29.3
5.2
7.5
3.0
Oct-12
91.4
10.0
28.8
5.3
7.4
3.5
Apr-12
91.0
8.9
29.0
5.5
7.4
4.1
Oct-11
World
USA
Middle East
West Africa
South & Central America
North Africa
60
VLCC Earnings
Major Oil Trades News:
• This week Shell declared force majeure on crude exports from the port of Bonny, Nigeria, after two key pipelines of a combined capacity of almost 0.8m bpd, the
Trans Niger and Nembe Creek Trunkline, were shut due
to damage from theft. No timeline for recommencement
of operations has been given. Oil theft is a widespread
problem in Nigeria and this is not the first time pipelines
have been closed due to theft. In 1H 2015, Nigerian
crude exports have reportedly risen 2% y-o-y.
*2015 data are projections. Oil production data shows total supply including crude oil, lease condensates and NGLs; world supply includes refinery gains, other liquids.
Dry Bulk
2012
2013
2014
2015*
2015/14
716.5
107.2
169.4
993.2
815.4 822.7 818.6
110.6 110.7 106.6
166.0 167.1 169.2
1091.9 1100.4 1094.4
-1%
-4%
1%
-1%
723.5 794.9 913.8 944.3
131.1 135.9 136.7 140.9
66.0
63.4
73.5
74.8
1110.2 1189.5 1337.5 1380.2
493.7 579.0 719.2 784.9
3%
3%
2%
3%
9%
Iron Ore Trade
Imports:
China
Japan
South Korea
Total Seaborne Imports
Exports:
Australia
China
India
Japan
South Korea
Exports: **
Australia
Indonesia
Total Seaborne Coal Trade
228.7 264.9 239.0 182.9
158.1 175.3 215.6 240.0
179.2 186.1 183.2 181.7
122.5 123.0 128.3 133.3
308.4 344.9 372.9 376.4
381.8 415.5 408.2 390.1
1123.2 1179.3 1212.4 1191.0
World Seaborne
Crude Oil
Oil Products
Dry Bulk
Containers
Other
World Seaborne Trade
y-o-y growth
$,000/day
-23%
11%
-1%
4%
1%
-4%
-2%
million tonnes
2012
1,901
923
4,099
1,464
1,454
9,841
4.2%
2013
2014
% Chg
2015*
1,832 1,799 1,834
963
974
1,013
4,333 4,548 4,602
1,544 1,631 1,723
1,507 1,552 1,604
10,180 10,504 10,776
3.4%
3.2%
2.6%
2015/14
2%
4%
1%
6%
3%
3%
50
Steel Production Index
Capesize Earnings
40
325
300
30
275
20
225
200
10
175
150
*2015 data are projections. ** Steam coal, lignite & coking coal.
Trade…
Index
250
Coal Trade
Imports: **
375
350
Steel Production
P.R. China
Japan
EU-27
Total Steel Prod. (listed)
Steel Production and Capesize Earnings
% Chg
0
Jul-11
Oct-11
Jan-12
Apr-12
Jul-12
Oct-12
Jan-13
Apr-13
Jul-13
Oct-13
Jan-14
Apr-14
Jul-14
Oct-14
Jan-15
Apr-15
Jul-15
Demand ....
million tonnes
Major Bulk Trades News:
• Chinese seaborne steam coal imports grew 31%
m-o-m in July 2015, to 11.8mt. Rather than representing
a firm recovery, this m-o-m increase highlights the low
base in June, which was the smallest monthly total in
over four years (9.0mt). Indeed, Chinese seaborne steam
coal imports dropped 21% y-o-y in July, contributing to a
38% y-o-y decline in the first seven months of the year.
The drop has been driven by declining domestic coal
demand, compounded by a crackdown on air pollution,
through strict coal quality regulations. Meanwhile,
Chinese seaborne coking coal imports increased 36%
y-o-y in July, to 5.3mt: the highest monthly total this year.
However, imports in January-July dropped 25% y-o-y,
reflecting the slowdown in the country’s steel output.
Data based on latest available information at start Aug-15. For more detail see Seaborne Trade Monitor on Shipping Intelligence Network.
Clarksons Research
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Oil Production
70
OPEC Oil Production
Jan-14
2015/14
Jul-13
2015*
$,000/day
Oct-13
2014
34
Apr-13
2013
m. bpd
Jan-13
2012
OPEC Production & VLCC Earnings
% Chg
Jan-12
Demand ....
million barrels per day
Jul-11
Oil Tanker
World Fleets & Orderbooks
Total Cargo
OIL TANKERS >10k dwt
OIL TANKERS <10k dwt
CHEMICAL TANKERS
OTHER TANKERS
BULKERS
COMBOS
LPG CARRIERS
LNG CARRIERS
CONTAINERSHIPS
MULTI-PURPOSE
GENERAL CARGO
RO-RO
CAR CARRIERS
REEFERS
OFFSHORE (AHTS/PSV)
OTHER CARGO
WORLD CARGO FLEET
TOTAL WORLD FLEET
TOTAL WORLD FLEET ($bn)*
Tanker
Fleet, m. Dwt
VLCC
Suezmax
Aframax
Panamax
Small
200,000+
120-200,000
80-120,000
60-80,000
10-60,000
of which: Specialised >10,000
<10,000
TOTAL FLEET >10,000
of which:
Single Hull
Double Hull
Combos in Oil
Laid-up
Storage
ACTIVE FLT. >10,000
2011
2012
2013
2014
No.
441.7
460.4
468.7
475.3 4,463
12.1
12.7
13.1
13.2
5,031
37.2
37.9
38.4
39.0
3,488
3.3
3.3
3.4
3.4
655
620.3
686.0
725.4
757.2 10,534
6.8
4.7
4.2
3.9
19
15.1
15.4
16.3
17.0
1,300
28.9
28.9
30.0
32.6
430
196.8
206.4
216.1
228.0 5,179
28.8
29.2
29.5
29.4
3,229
33.3
32.3
31.8
31.3 14,465
8.3
8.1
7.7
7.5
1,254
11.3
11.8
11.9
12.1
782
6.0
5.3
5.2
5.0
1,401
7.3
7.9
8.6
9.5
5,365
5.6
5.7
5.7
5.7
753
1,462.9 1,555.9 1,616.1 1,670.0 58,348
1,533.7 1,626.8 1,687.9 1,744.5 89,863
855.7
826.2
895.7
915.6 89863
m.Dwt
No.
m.Dwt
% Fleet
2015
2016
2017+
484.5
13.2
40.1
3.5
767.8
2.8
18.0
34.0
238.1
29.4
31.4
7.6
12.3
5.0
9.8
5.7
1,703.2
1,777.9
907.7
607
58
249
35
1,667
0
204
161
427
128
80
15
69
8
635
14
4,357
5,239
5,239
80.1
0.3
5.7
0.8
135.6
0.0
6.9
12.9
41.8
1.9
0.4
0.4
1.3
0.0
1.8
0.1
290.2
298.2
292.8
16.5%
1.9%
14.1%
23.9%
17.7%
0.0%
38.5%
38.0%
17.6%
6.6%
1.4%
5.8%
10.2%
0.9%
18.6%
2.1%
17.0%
16.8%
32.3%
12.5
0.3
1.4
0.2
47.8
0.0
1.6
2.0
9.5
0.8
0.3
0.4
0.3
0.0
1.1
0.1
78.4
79.9
70.7
36.8
0.0
2.6
0.6
66.6
0.0
3.8
3.1
13.5
0.8
0.1
0.0
0.4
0.0
0.6
0.0
129.0
131.5
110.7
30.7
0.0
1.6
0.0
21.2
0.0
1.4
7.8
18.8
0.4
0.1
0.1
0.5
0.0
0.1
0.0
82.8
86.8
111.4
01-Aug-15
Year End
Orderbook & Delivery Schedule
Orderbook & Delivery Schedule
2011
2012
2013
2014
No.
m.Dwt
No.
m.Dwt
% Fleet
2015
2016
2017+
175.5
68.3
96.7
29.3
103.3
31.5
21.2
473.2
15.7
457.5
4.3
4.8
1.8
470.9
187.2
72.6
97.6
29.8
105.1
32.0
22.0
492.4
10.9
481.5
4.0
2.9
2.3
491.2
190.2
76.2
96.9
29.9
107.8
32.3
22.6
501.0
7.6
493.4
2.4
7.9
2.4
493.2
194.2
76.0
96.1
29.9
111.8
32.8
22.9
508.0
5.1
503.3
2.7
5.8
2.3
502.6
641
499
914
408
3,554
1,553
7,621
6,016
153
5,863
13
62
14
5,953
197.2
77.3
98.5
29.6
115.8
33.9
23.0
518.4
3.9
514.5
2.0
5.6
3.7
511.1
117
93
140
51
436
230
112
837
36.2
14.6
15.7
3.7
16.0
6.2
0.5
86.3
18.4%
18.9%
15.9%
12.6%
13.8%
18.4%
2.3%
16.6%
5.6
0.5
2.7
0.2
5.0
1.5
0.4
14.0
17.7
6.3
6.1
2.0
7.9
3.1
0.1
39.9
12.9
7.9
7.0
1.5
3.1
1.7
0.0
32.4
Increase in size of Tanker Fleet:
2014/2013
1.4%
2015*/2014
2.0%
* year to date
Bulk Carrier
Fleet, m. Dwt
2011
2012
2013
2014
No.
m.Dwt
No.
Capesize
100,000+
Panamax
65-100,000
Handymax
40-65,000
Handysize
10-40,000
TOTAL FLEET
Combos in Dry
Laid-up
Storage
ACTIVE FLEET
249.9
151.6
130.9
87.9
620.3
2.5
0.3
0.2
622.3
280.0
169.8
146.9
89.3
686.0
0.7
1.2
0.1
685.3
293.9
184.9
157.8
88.7
725.4
0.4
0.6
0.2
725.1
308.2
193.3
165.8
89.8
757.2
0.6
0.7
0.2
756.9
1,625
2,471
3,230
3,208
10,534
3
22
6
10,509
307.9
196.2
173.3
90.5
767.8
0.3
2.6
0.8
764.7
270
355
657
385
1,667
01-Aug-15
Year End
Orderbook & Delivery Schedule
m.Dwt
% Fleet
2015
2016
2017+
53.4
17.3%
16.5
28.8
8.0
28.9
14.7%
11.6
12.4
4.8
39.7
22.9%
14.9
18.9
5.9
13.6
15.1%
4.8
6.4
2.5
135.6
17.7%
47.8
66.6
21.2
Increase in size of Bulkcarrier Fleet:
2014/2013
4.4%
2015*/2014
1.4%
* year to date
Note: Panamax fleet includes vessels 60-65,000 dwt built prior to 2000.
LPG Carrier
Fleet ,000m³
<5,000 cbm
5-20,000 cbm
20-45,000 cbm
45-65,000 cbm
>65,000 cbm
TOTAL FLEET
TOTAL M. DWT
01-Aug-15
Year End
Orderbook & Delivery Schedule
2011
2012
2013
2014
No.
,000m³
No.
,000m³
% Fleet
2015
2016
2017+
1,516
2,341
3,338
1,184
11,249
19,628
15.1
1,531
2,428
3,394
1,184
11,411
19,948
15.4
1,524
2,579
3,552
1,184
12,484
21,323
16.3
1,543
2,599
3,797
1,184
13,153
22,276
17.0
638
328
136
22
176
1,300
1,533
2,671
3,920
1,305
14,240
23,669
18.0
11
41
59
3
90
204
39
402
1,760
180
7,545
9,926
6.91
2.5%
15.1%
44.9%
13.8%
53.0%
41.9%
38.5%
35
166
158
60
1,927
2,346
1.63
4
200
832
120
4,440
5,596
3.85
0
37
770
0
1,177
1,984
1.43
"Oil Tankers" includes vessels in the crude oil & oil products sectors, including all IMO 3 tankers and specified IMO 2 tankers (see Oil & Tanker Trades Outlook for detailed
definition). "Chemical" includes IMO 1 tankers and specified IMO 2 tankers. "Specialised" includes chemical tankers and other tankers designed for the carriage of
specialist liquids.
Clarksons Research
Page 14
28-Aug-15
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Fleet, m. Dwt
01-Aug-15
Year End
World Fleets & Orderbooks
<40,000 cbm
40-60,000 cbm
60-100,000 cbm
>100,000 cbm
TOTAL FLEET
TOTAL M. DWT
Containership
Fleet ,000 Teu
100-999 teu
1-2,999 teu
3,000 &+ teu (Panamax)
3-7,999 teu
(Post-Pmax)
8-11,999 teu (Post-Pmax)
12,000 &+ teu (Post-Pmax)
TOTAL FLEET
TOTAL M. DWT
Multipurpose
Fleet ,000 Teu
100 - 499 teu
500 - 999 teu
1000 &+ teu
TOTAL FLEET
MPP FLEET M. DWT
GC FLEET M. DWT
01-Aug-15
Year End
Orderbook & Delivery Schedule
2011
2012
2013
2014
No.
,000m³
No.
,000m³
% Fleet
2015
2016
2017+
277
122
1,070
51,547
53,016
28.9
293
0
1,070
51,725
53,088
28.9
231
0
982
54,002
55,216
30.0
231
0
839
59,030
60,101
32.6
26
0
9
395
430
289
0
684
61,668
62,640
34.0
18
1
0
142
161
410
45
0
24,242
24,697
12.9
142.1%
#DIV/0!
0.0%
39.3%
39.4%
38.0%
155
0
0
3,654
3,808
2.0
170
0
0
5,653
5,823
3.1
85
45
0
14,936
15,066
7.8
01-Aug-15
Year End
2011
2012
2013
729.4
3,609.8
3,975.9
3,203.9
2,805.8
1,007.2
15,331.9
196.8
707.1
3,482.4
3,954.0
3,403.8
3,119.3
1,576.4
16,243.0
206.4
687.1
3,399.0
3,782.7
3,656.4
3,550.7
2,057.4
17,133.3
216.1
2014
659.8 1,052
3,353.8 1,873
3,636.6 855
3,800.9 676
4,092.1 500
2,694.3 223
18,237.5 5,179
228.0
2012
2013
2014
No.
555.3
554.7
549.3
541.4 2,137
576.9
580.5
561.9
540.1
780
290.3
334.3
398.7
432.6
312
1,422.5 1,469.5 1,509.9 1,514.0 3,229
28.8
29.2
29.5
29.4
33.3
32.3
31.8
31.3 14,465
Orderbook & Delivery Schedule
,000teu
No.
,000teu
% Fleet
2015
2016
2017+
649.2
3,358.3
3,598.7
3,897.6
4,477.2
3,188.4
19,169.3
238.1
3
152
4
31
105
132
427
2.0
305.3
13.0
129.5
1,009.6
2,172.2
3,631.6
41.8
0.3%
9.1%
0.4%
3.3%
22.6%
68.1%
18.9%
17.6%
1.5
85.9
9.9
27.9
386.8
300.6
812.6
9.5
0.5
152.8
3.1
13.0
465.5
531.5
1,166.4
13.5
0.0
66.5
0.0
88.6
157.3
1,340.1
1,652.6
18.8
01-Aug-15
Year End
2011
No.
Orderbook & Delivery Schedule
,000teu
No.
,000teu
% Fleet
2015
2016
2017+
537.5
536.7
446.0
1,520.3
29.4
31.4
29
71
28
128
10.7
50.3
45.4
106.4
1.9
0.4
2.0%
9.4%
10.2%
7.0%
6.6%
1.4%
8.1
16.8
18.8
43.8
0.8
0.3
2.6
23.6
19.5
45.7
0.8
0.1
0.0
9.8
7.1
16.9
0.4
0.1
80
Ro-Ro Vessel
Fleet, m. Dwt
2011
2012
2013
2014
No.
m.Dwt
No.
m.Dwt
% Fleet
2015
2016
2017+
<5,000 dwt
5,000-10,000 dwt
10,000 &+ dwt
TOTAL FLEET
CAR CARRIERS
1.2
2.5
4.6
8.3
11.3
1.1
2.4
4.5
8.1
11.8
1.1
2.3
4.3
7.7
11.9
1.1
2.3
4.1
7.5
12.1
703
316
235
1,254
782
1.0
2.3
4.3
7.6
12.3
1
4
10
15
69
0.0
0.0
0.4
0.4
1.3
0.3%
1.3%
9.5%
5.8%
10.2%
0.0
0.0
0.4
0.4
0.3
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.4
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.1
0.5
01-Aug-15
Year End
Orderbook & Delivery Schedule
Reefer Vessel
Fleet m. ft³.
2011
2012
2013
2014
No.
m.ft³
No.
m.ft³
% Fleet
2015
2016
2017+
< 200,000 cu ft
200-449,999 cu ft
> 450,000 cu ft
TOTAL FLEET
TOTAL M. DWT
51.5
90.1
125.4
266.9
6.0
48.3
76.0
111.8
236.2
5.3
47.7
74.9
108.7
231.3
5.2
46.5
73.9
104.5
224.9
5.0
970
246
185
1,401
46.5
73.7
102.8
223.0
5.0
2
6
0
8
0.4
1.5
0.0
1.8
0.0
0.8%
2.0%
0.0%
0.8%
0.9%
0.4
1.0
0.0
1.4
0.0
0.0
0.5
0.0
0.5
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
01-Aug-15
Year End
Orderbook & Delivery Schedule
Owner Fleets by
Nationality, m. GT
2011
2012
2013
2014
No.
m. GT
No.
m. GT
% Fleet
2015
2016
2017+
Greece
Japan
China P.R.
Germany
United States
142.8
149.7
100.3
94.4
50.5
151.0
157.8
111.4
96.8
51.2
164.2
160.7
117.4
94.8
52.8
179.9
162.9
120.0
94.0
58.0
5,074
8,635
6,526
3,968
5,005
185.7
163.8
125.2
93.7
58.4
483
313
610
228
254
29.2
18.5
29.6
8.3
12.4
15.7%
11.3%
23.6%
8.9%
21.1%
8.0
2.8
9.8
2.4
2.2
14.5
4.9
12.7
4.0
6.8
6.7
10.7
7.1
1.9
3.4
01-Aug-15
Year End
Orderbook & Delivery Schedule
Note: All fleet figures are from the Clarkson Research Ship and Orderbook Databases, expressed in the units indicated. All dwt figures are metric. Annual data are as at year
end, monthly data at the beginning of the month. The databases comprise vessels of 100gt and above. For access to more detailed fleet data visit World Fleet Register at
www.clarksons.net/wfr. * Value of the world fleet based on estimates of the value of each vessel based on type, size and age. For specialised and non-cargo vessels,
coverage may not be complete. Value of the orderbook based on reported newbuilding contract prices wherever possible and estimated contract prices adjusted for vessel
type, size and the date of the contract elsewhere. For more detail see World Fleet Monitor.
A "Sources & Methods" document which describes the methodology by which Clarkson Research Services gathers and processes the data set out
in this report, including the calculation of voyage earnings for tankers and bulk carriers, is available on our website at www.clarksons.net. Further
enquiries may be made to the addresses set out on the back page.
Clarksons Research
Page 15
28-Aug-15
Licenced to SIWEM00018 of BP Shipping Co Limited. Distribution is restricted; please remember to acknowledge the source. Shipping Intelligence Weekly, Issue 1186.
Licenced to SIWEM00018 of BP Shipping Co Limited. Distribution is restricted; please remember to acknowledge the source. Shipping Intelligence Weekly, Issue 1186.
LNG Carrier
Fleet ,000m³
Analysis
In English if you say “he’s gone west” you mean he’s a “goner” (i.e. dead). It’s a phrase the stock market
might now be applying to China’s economy. But in China, if you “go west” you get to the town of Urumqi.
It has 3 million people, per capita income of $11,000 a year, the Texas Cafe serves great Tex-Mex, and
it’s China’s “fastest growing city”. Oh yes - and it’s the world city most remote from the sea (2,400km).
The good news is that China’s industrial
production trend remains at about 5-6%
per annum. There is still a long way to go
in developing the economy, especially
the inland provinces. The bad news is
that the stagnation of imports looks suspiciously like the structural slowdown of a
Graph of the Week
China’s Trade And
Industry: Showing
Growth Pains?
Shipping Intelligence Weekly, 28 August 2015
Published by:
Clarkson Research Services Limited
Commodity Quay, St Katharine Docks
London E1W 1BF, England.
Tel: + (44) (0) 20 7334 3134
E-mail: [email protected]
On-line Shop: http://www.crsl.com
Website: http://www.clarksons.com/research
Shipping Intelligence Network: http://www.clarksons.net
World Fleet Register: http://www.clarksons.net/wfr
Shipping Intelligence Weekly is published 50 times a year. It is
available on subscription at a price of £845/£910 a year (within
Europe/outside Europe) including postage.
5
Ratio of growth in seaborne imports to industrial production
Imports much more
volatile than industry
after 2008 credit crisis
4
3
2
1
0
How Big Is Too Big?
-1
-2
Imports fall
into negative
territory
-3
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
-4
2005
The red line on the graph shows
the ratio of year-on-year growth
in China’s total seaborne imports
to Chinese industrial production
growth. The blue line shows the
centred 12 month moving average of this ratio.
Blue line shows 12
month moving
average (centred)
2004
The problem is figuring out when China’s
trade development is overshooting. China
is so much bigger than Japan and Europe. But by looking at the ratio of the
growth in total Chinese seaborne imports
to growth in Chinese industrial production, a change is apparent (see chart). If
the ratio is over 1, trade is growing more
quickly than industrial production - from
So there you have it. Lots of drama, but
the underlying economics suggest that
the Chinese economy is having normal
development pains, intensified by its size
and the pace of growth. For shipping this
may not be the end of the road, but it’s
time to take a careful look at the management of the business. When a customer
the size of China gets growth pains, you
just can’t ignore it. Have a nice day.
2003
Forty years ago Europe and Japan went
through the same process. Between
1965 and 1973 Japan was the miracle
economy, accounting for two thirds of dry
bulk trade growth – just like China. The
problems began in 1973 as heavy industry, especially steel, reached unsustainable capacity levels. In 2001 China’s steel
output was 151mt, up from 90mt in 1993.
Useful growth which brought China’s
steel production in line with Europe’s output of 159mt. But by 2013 China’s output
hit 815mt and is likely to be about the
same in 2015. Familiar territory.
Pushing West
2002
Previous Growth Regions
maturing Trade Development Cycle. For
a while it seemed that coal might fill the
growth gap, but with the new attitude to
the environment, that seems less likely.
Good News & Bad
2001
The point is that, unlike any other developing region, China is a very, very big
place. Many economists would classify
China’s recent growth as typical of the
“Trade Development Cycle” model. Economic development uses vast quantities
of raw materials, for building infrastructure and stocks of durables. Then the
focus turns to less material intensive
products – there’s not much iron ore in a
Gucci handbag. Anyway, it looks as if
China might have reached this inflection
point in its development cycle.
2000 to 2003 the ratio averaged 1.6. If
the ratio is 1, seaborne imports and industrial production are growing at around
the same rate - in 2004-12 the ratio averaged 0.9. Below 1 is bad news - since
2012 the ratio has averaged 0.4 and has
been negative in recent months.
2000
China Really Is A Big Place
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Has China’s Seaborne Import Boom “Gone West”?