FINAL PAPER 1 Women’s Participation in Competitive Disc Golf Nicholas Blahna, PDGA #53,133 Saint Mary's University of Minnesota Schools of Graduate & Professional Programs Quantitative Methods GM 630 Professor Mary Thomas April 27th, 2014 FINAL PAPER 2 Women’s Participation in Competitive Disc Golf Introduction This article examines participation levels of women in the Professional Disc Golf Association (PDGA). Specifically, this paper examines the percentage of women members of the total historic PDGA membership and contrasts that information with the percentage of women participating in PDGA sanctioned events. A Simple Random Sample (SRS) was composed for this study consisting of participation information for close to 12,600 unique events that occurred between 2002 and 2013. This article contains an explanation of the growth of the PDGA membership base over the past twelve years, specifically focusing on the differences between the male and female halves of the membership population. Two hypotheses are tested against the demographic information proposed by the PDGA. Information related to selecting the sample and selecting the statistical analysisis techniques is included. After exploring the findings of the statistical analysis of those hypotheses, conclusions are drawn with regard to the data. Finally, a personal reflection of this study is included. Background A brief history. The Professional Disc Golf Association (PDGA) was founded in 1975, by “Steady” Ed Headrick of Wham-O, and gifted to the players of the sport in 1983. The purpose of the PDGA is to increase player participation, develop competitive play, increase spectator participation, maintain the rules and competitive standards, and perform general outreach (PDGA, 2009). To date, the PDGA has had over 64,000 individuals from all over the world enroll as members, however the vast majority of those members have been men. Figure 1 shows the breakdown of the total historical membership numbers in terms of their percentage. It FINAL PAPER 3 isn’t difficult to see how far off the membership numbers are from the global percentages of men and women, which is roughly a 50/50 split. Total Historic PDGA Memberships Unspecefied 0.05% Women 8.41% Men 91.54% Figure 1. Total Historic PDGA Memberships from inception in 1975 to March, 2013. Where we are today. Industry representatives such as Steve Dodge (2013) from Vibram Disc Golf and John G. Duesler (2014) of Disc Golf Planet TV (DGPtv) have hypothesized about numerous initiatives to help “grow the sport.” However, niether Dodge nor Duesler focused on the glaring gender gap in participation. Figure 2 shows that every year since 2002, when the PDGA really began to track population metrics related to active membership numbers, the active population of both men and women have been positive. In fact, more often than not, the population percentage changes for women have been greater than the population percentage gains experienced by the men. However, Figure 3 is significantly more telling of how wide the gender gap is in terms of active PDGA membership numbers. Despite appearances, the growth of the population of women members in the PDGA is increasing. While the numbers associated with active women PDGA members seem to be experiencing linear growth, the population of active men seems to be experiencing exponential growth. FINAL PAPER 4 Percent of Change in Membership Numbers Positive Change in Active Membership Numbers between, 2002-2012 20% 18% 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% 2002 Men Women 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 Figure 2. Positive change in active membership numbers between 2002-2012. Gathered from year-end demographic data provided by the PDGA (2002-2013). Trends in Active Membership Populations 20000 Membership Numbers 18000 16000 14000 12000 10000 Men 8000 Women 6000 4000 2000 0 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Year Figure 3. Trends in active membership populations, 2002-2013. For Men R2=0.9938; For Women R2=0.9571, where y=-159543.962+79.948x (p<0.0001). If the male population is actually experiencing linear growth, R2 drops to 0.97896, where y= -2115804.615+1059.93x (p<0.0001). Gathered from year-end demographic data provided by the PDGA (2002-2013). The issue examined. I believe women’s participation is a bellweather the for health of disc golf. As stated above, women represent roughly 50% of the global population, and I believe FINAL PAPER 5 through increasing women’s participation in disc golf, the sport will grow at a faster rate. As the popularity of the sport increases, new opportunities are created for the businesses such as Vibram Disc Golf, Disc Golf Planet TV, the PDGA, and other new and existing organizations that support (and are supported by) disc golfers, globally. The population of PDGA members is clearly growing for both men and women; however, are women participating in PDGA events at a rate consistent with the recorded population demographics? The Study Hypotheses This article seeks to test two hypotheses related to women’s participation in PDGA sanctioned events. H1: Women participate in competitive disc golf events at a rate different than the rate of overall representation in the PDGA’s total historic membership. This hypothesis will examine participation rates of women in a SRS of the total population of PDGA sanctioned events compared to the percentage of women in the overall, historic PDGA membership (8.41%). H 2 : As disc golf has become more popular over the years, women are participating at competitive, PDGA sanctioned events at a greater rate. This hypothesis will examine participation rates of women from multiple SRSs of PDGA sanctioned events broken out into populations based on the year those events took place. The purpose of this hypothesis is to see if womens participation has increased, decreased, or remained the same since 2002. FINAL PAPER 6 Sample Design The sample used to examine H 1 is a stratified random sample. The total population of PDGA sanctioned events is almost 12,600 events, and the sample consists of 5% of each event from the years between 2002 and 2013. In total, the total sample consists of 630 individual events. The sample of PDGA sanctioned events used in this study consists of National Tour, Atier, B-tier, C-tier, and X-tier events; ProAm, Pro, and Am only events; as well as events from across the world. The samples used to test H 2 are simply the strata from the total sample used to examine H 1 . After determining the sample size from each year, the annual population of events was selected at random with Microsoft Excel. Reducing Bias. Because the total population of events was available at the time this study was conducted, a stratified random sample was used in this study. Using strata consisting of 5% of the total population of PDGA sanctioned events from every year helps to ensure more statistically significant and consistent results from the data. The resulting sample is highly representative of the total population. Methods Analysis for this test will be conducted using Microsoft Excel and CrunchIt! provided by W.H. Freeman & Company. The statistical techniques used in this study revolve around t procedures. As figure 4 shows us, the total sample has a right skew, and we can assume that the individual strata are similar. Furthermore, the sample (and each strata) consists of only 5% of the total population of PDGA events from 2002 through 2013. Another reason behind using oneway t-tests is that they should be used when the data is “significantly larger than the sample, say 20 times larger,” (Moore, Knotz, & Flinger, 2013, p. 350). Therefore, according to Moore, FINAL PAPER 7 Knotz, and Flinger (2013), one-way t tests will be the best tool to measure each distribution’s mean against the percentage of women members of the PDGA. ANOVA would have been used to test H 2 , if each distribution were normal (each with the same standard deviation). However, as figure 4 shows us, there isn’t a normal distribution in the total sample. Furthermore, ANOVA is only reliable if more that 20% of the cells contain values greater than five. As this study is only interested in percentages, no cell contains a value greater than one. Figure 4. A histogram depicting the distribution of women’s participation in PDGA events, calculated from the total sample. FINAL PAPER 8 Table 1 Descriptive Statistic Information Sample n Sample Mean Standard Deviation Min Q1 Median QI Max Total Sample 630 0.06798 0.09932 0 0.01754 0.05263 0.08889 1 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 21 26 32 38 40 47 54 60 65 71 85 95 0.04891 0.1084 0.06432 0.06972 0.05872 0.06870 0.05737 0.08700 0.05400 0.05383 0.09399 0.05327 0.03062 0.1890 0.05480 0.04436 0.04904 0.07086 0.04659 0.1417 0.04837 0.05545 0.1784 0.05608 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.02412 0.03704 0.03653 0.03922 0.02731 0.01230 0.01887 0.01365 0.007576 0 0.01473 0 0.05556 0.07275 0.05409 0.06235 0.05379 0.05410 0.05203 0.05988 0.04651 0.04688 0.04082 0.04040 0.06671 0.1000 0.09970 0.09524 0.07387 0.1014 0.08000 0.1004 0.08990 0.08434 0.08422 0.08108 0.1020 1 0.2581 0.1935 0.1884 0.3000 0.1875 1 0.2269 0.2727 1 0.2553 Note: Adapted from data provided by the PDGA. Results Descriptive Statistics Table 1 contains all the information related to the descriptive statistics of this study. It includes the mean values and standard deviations, as well as the five number distributions for the total sample and each individual stratum. This information was used to compile the boxplots in Figure 5. These boxplots make it easier to see the distribution of these stratum. According to Table 1, every stratum featured at least one event with 0% female participation. On the other end of the spectrum, Figure 5 shows us that there are numerous years where the distribution featured events with women’s participation as high as 100%. Although those events appear as outliers, it is important to note that these were likely Women’s Championship events, or Women’s Global Events. Unfortunately, this information doesn’t help to determine the validity of the hypotheses. FINAL PAPER 9 Figure 5. Boxplots for each stratum. Compiled using information from the PDGA, analysed in CrunchIT! Inferential Statistics Table 2 contains all the information related to the inferential portion of this study, and the bulk of the answers to our questions. These results are based on the following hypotheses: H o : The population mean = 0.0841 (8.41%, the percent of women in the total PDGA population) H a : The population mean is not 0.0841 FINAL PAPER 10 Table 2 One-way t-test Results. Sample n Sample Mean Standard Error df t Statistic P-value 95% Confidence Interval Total Sample 630 0.06798 0.003957 629 -4.073 <0.0001 (0.06021, 0.07575) 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 21 26 32 38 40 47 54 60 65 71 85 95 0.04891 0.1084 0.06432 0.06972 0.05872 0.06870 0.05737 0.08700 0.05400 0.05383 0.09399 0.05327 0.006682 0.03707 0.009687 0.007196 0.007754 0.01034 0.006340 0.01829 0.006000 0.006581 0.01935 0.005754 20 25 31 37 39 46 53 59 64 70 84 94 -5.267 0.6556 -2.042 -1.998 -3.273 -1.490 -4.216 0.1585 -5.017 -4.600 0.5111 -5.358 <0.0001 0.5181 0.04976 0.05307 0.00223 0.1431 <0.0001 0.8746 <0.0001 <0.0001 0.6106 <0.0001 (0.03497, 0.06285) (0.03206, 0.1847) (0.04456, 0.08408) (0.05514, 0.08430) (0.04304, 0.07440) (0.04789, 0.08951) (0.04465, 0.07009) (0.05040, 0.1236) (0.04201, 0.06599) (0.04071, 0.06695) (0.05551, 0.1325) (0.04185, 0.06469) Note: Adapted from data provided by the PDGA The data from Table 2 confirms H 1 to be true, that Women participate in competitive disc golf events at a rate different than the rate of overall representation in the PDGA’s total historic membership. According to the total sample, there is a 95% confidence that women participate at a level 2.39% to .84% below their overall representation. In examining H 2 , we find that in five out of the 12 years studied, that a 95% confidence rate cannot rule out the probability that women are represented at 8.41% participation at PDGA sanctioned events. However, the data for the remaining seven years suggests that on average, women’s participation is below 8.41%. These years include, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2006, 2008, 2010, 2011, and 2013. The p-values for 2003 and 2004 indicate that the null hypothesis cannot be proved, but only by a miniscule amount. 2003, 2012 and 2009 appear to be the years where women’s participation levels were highest. According to the data in Table 2, H 2 is proved to be false, with only 25% of the years studied reporting means greater than the 8.41% test mean. FINAL PAPER 11 Conclusions This study has confirmed my suspicions that women participate in PDGA sanctioned events at a rate lower than their overall representation in the population of PDGA members. It should be stated that these results could be due to any number of variables. I believe that initiatives such as the Women’s Global Event can be quite powerful in manipulating the averages. Of the many outliers indicated in Figure 5, four of the largest five were Women’s Global events. Outliers are good for bringing averages up; however, they don’t create widespread change across a population the same way adjusting averages upward across the board (Moore, Knotz, & Flinger, 2013). With that fact in mind, I still believe that events like the Women’s Global event and “women only” events are still incredibly beneficial to introduce women to the sport and fuel competitive drive. Despite the level of attention that disc golf receives in the European market, I didn’t observe any obvious differences with Women’s participation levels from the United States. Although in working with the data, repeatedly I observed that the events from Japan seemed to garner higher levels of women participation. Further study should be given to this trend. It may be that tournament directors from Japan are providing a more female friendly environment than western events have historically provided; though it could be that lurking variables (such as the total number of events hosted in Japan) create an environment that spurs participation. It may be a situation where low availability creates higher demand. Further study in this area should also be completed based on the size of events. I believe that large events such as National Tour and A-tier events attract larger women’s fields because of the visibility of those events. It should be expected that Women’s fields will be larger at big FINAL PAPER 12 events, but do those highly visible events garner Women’s fields that are significantly larger than B-tier or C-tier events? Personal Reflection This assignment proved to be much more enjoyable than I expected it to be. Choosing a topic that I’m passionate about was much more rewarding than pouring over data from work. However, I wish I had found my hypotheses to be true. Furthermore, it was relatively painless to put the lessons I’ve learned over the past eight weeks into practice. At a certain point, I realized that the data I was gathering and compiling was dictating a lot of the decisions I made in terms of which tools to use, and how to make my statistical comparisons. The CrunchIt! software played a big part in completing this project. As I used Excel on the Mac platform, it proved to be even more complicated and “clunky” than on the Windows platform. I believe that having dedicated statistics software is necessary if I’m going to be performing further statistical analyses in the office, or in my free time. Despite my experience, I can honestly say that I’ve learned quite a bit about the functionality (and downfalls) of Excel. In the future, I hope that I can create opportunities to examine more trends in disc golf. It isn’t very often that I can combine my responsibilities to work or school with the passions I enjoy in my free time. Though this wasn’t quite as fulfilling as enjoying the sunshine and hitting huge putts, I think this is as close as I can get while remaining behind my computer. In closing, I want to include a big ‘Thank You’ to Steve Ganz, the technology director for the PDGA. Without his patience towards this project, his generosity with PDGA data, and his swift correspondence time, I’m sure I wouldn’t have had the opportunity to examine participation trends of women in PDGA events. Thanks so much, Steve! FINAL PAPER 13 References Disc Golf Association (DGA). (ND). Disc Golf History. Retrieved on April 26th, 2014, from http://www.discgolf.com/how-to-play-disc-golf/disc-golf-history/. Dodd, S. (2013). Grow the Sport. Retrieved on March 28th, 2014, from http://www.vibramdiscgolf.com/grow-the-sport.html. Duesler, J. G. (March 27th, 2014). DGPtv Conference Series 01--"Disc Golf Will Experience Sudden, Rapid Growth Soon". Retrieved on March 28th, 2014, from https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fMQ9YE9UaCI. Moore, Knotz, Flinger. (2013). Essential Statistics, 2nd Edition. New York: W.H. Freeman & Company. Professional Disc Golf Association (PDGA). (2002). 2002 PDGA Year End Demographics. Retrieved on April 25th, 2014, from http://www.pdga.com/documents/2002-pdga-yearend-demographics. PDGA. (2004). 2004 PDGA Year End Demographics. Retrieved on April 25th, 2014, from http://www.pdga.com/documents/2004-pdga-year-end-demographics. PDGA. (2005). 2005 PDGA Year End Demographics. Retrieved on April 25th, 2014, from http://www.pdga.com/documents/2005-pdga-year-end-demographics. PDGA. (2006) 2006 PDGA Year End Demographics. Retrieved on April 25th, 2014, from http://www.pdga.com/documents/2006-pdga-year-end-demographics. PDGA. (2007). 2007 PDGA Year End Demographics. Retrieved on April 25th, 2014, from http://www.pdga.com/documents/2007-pdga-year-end-demographics. PDGA. (2008). 2008 PDGA Year End Demographics. Retrieved on April 25th, 2014, from http://www.pdga.com/documents/2008-year-end-demographics. FINAL PAPER 14 PDGA. (2009). 2009 PDGA Year End Demographics. Retrieved on April 25th, 2014, from http://www.pdga.com/pdga-documents/2009-pdga-year-end-demographics. PDGA. (2009). Mission Statement. Retrieved on April 26th, 2014, from http://www.pdga.com/files/09%20PDGA%20Mission%20Statement%20%20050109_1.pdf. PDGA. (2010). 2010 PDGA Year End Demographics. Retrieved on April 25th, 2014, from http://www.pdga.com/pdga-documents/2010-pdga-year-end-demographics. PDGA. (2011). 2011 PDGA Year End Demographics. Retrieved on April 25th, 2014, from http://www.pdga.com/pdga-documents/demographics-ye/2011-pdga-year-enddemographics. PDGA. (2012). 2012 PDGA Year End Demographics. Retrieved on April 25th, 2014, from http://www.pdga.com/node/28636. PDGA. (2013). 2013 PDGA Year End Demographics. Retrieved on April 25th, 2014, from http://www.pdga.com/pdga-documents/demographics-current/2013-pdga-and-disc-golfdemographics. FINAL PAPER 15 Appendix A – Descriptive Statistics and t Procedures Outputs from CrunchIt! Total Sample n Sample Mean Standard Deviation Min Q1 Median Q3 Max 630 0.06798 0.09932 0 0.01754 0.05263 0.08889 1 Total Sample Null hypothesis: Population mean = 0.0841 Alternative hypothesis: Population mean is not 0.0841 n: 630 Sample Mean: 0.06798 Standard Error: 0.003957 df: 629 t statistic: -4.073 P-value: <0.0001 n: 630 Sample Mean: 0.06798 Standard Error: 0.003957 df: 629 95% ConfInt: (0.06021, 0.07575) 2002 Sample 2002 n Sample Mean Standard Deviation Min Q1 Median Q3 Max 21 0.04891 0.03062 0 0.02412 0.05556 0.06671 0.1020 FINAL PAPER 16 Null hypothesis: Population mean = 0.0841 Alternative hypothesis: Population mean is not 0.0841 n: 21 Sample Mean: 0.04891 Standard Error: 0.006682 df: 20 t statistic: -5.267 P-value: <0.0001 n: 21 Sample Mean: 0.04891 Standard Error: 0.006682 df: 20 95% ConfInt: (0.03497, 0.06285) 2003 Sample 2003 n Sample Mean Standard Deviation Min Q1 Median Q3 Max 26 0.1084 0.1890 0 0.03704 0.07275 0.1000 1 Null hypothesis: Population mean = 0.0841 Alternative hypothesis: Population mean is not 0.0841 n: 26 Sample Mean: 0.1084 Standard Error: 0.03707 df: 25 t statistic: 0.6556 FINAL PAPER 17 P-value: 0.5181 n: 26 Sample Mean: 0.1084 Standard Error: 0.03707 df: 25 95% ConfInt: (0.03206, 0.1847) 2004 Sample Sample n Standard Deviation Min Q1 Median Q3 Max 0.05480 0 0.03653 0.05409 0.09970 0.2581 Mean 2004 32 0.06432 Null hypothesis: Population mean = 0.0841 Alternative hypothesis: Population mean is not 0.0841 n: 32 Sample Mean: 0.06432 Standard Error: 0.009687 df: 31 t statistic: -2.042 P-value: 0.04976 n: 32 Sample Mean: 0.06432 Standard Error: 0.009687 df: 31 FINAL PAPER 18 95% ConfInt: (0.04456, 0.08408) 2005 Sample Sample n Standard Deviation Min Q1 Median Q3 Max 0.04436 0 0.03922 0.06235 0.09524 0.1935 Mean 2005 38 0.06972 Null hypothesis: Population mean = 0.0841 Alternative hypothesis: Population mean is not 0.0841 n: 38 Sample Mean: 0.06972 Standard Error: 0.007196 df: 37 t statistic: -1.998 P-value: 0.05307 n: 38 Sample Mean: 0.06972 Standard Error: 0.007196 df: 37 95% ConfInt: (0.05514, 0.08430) 2006 Sample 2006 n Sample Mean Standard Deviation Min Q1 Median Q3 Max 40 0.05872 0.04904 0 0.02731 0.05379 0.07387 0.1884 Null hypothesis: Population mean = 0.0841 Alternative hypothesis: Population mean is not 0.0841 FINAL PAPER 19 n: 40 Sample Mean: 0.05872 Standard Error: 0.007754 df: 39 t statistic: -3.273 P-value: 0.002232 n: 40 Sample Mean: 0.05872 Standard Error: 0.007754 df: 39 95% ConfInt: (0.04304, 0.07440) 2007 Sample 2007 n Sample Mean Standard Deviation Min Q1 Median Q3 Max 47 0.06870 0.07086 0 0.01230 0.05410 0.1014 0.3000 Null hypothesis: Population mean = 0.0841 Alternative hypothesis: Population mean is not 0.0841 n: 47 Sample Mean: 0.06870 Standard Error: 0.01034 df: 46 t statistic: -1.490 P-value: 0.1431 n: 47 FINAL PAPER 20 Sample Mean: 0.06870 Standard Error: 0.01034 df: 46 95% ConfInt: (0.04789, 0.08951) 2008 Sample 2008 n Sample Mean Standard Deviation Min Q1 Median Q3 Max 54 0.05737 0.04659 0 0.01887 0.05203 0.08000 0.1875 Null hypothesis: Population mean = 0.0841 Alternative hypothesis: Population mean is not 0.0841 n: 54 Sample Mean: 0.05737 Standard Error: 0.006340 df: 53 t statistic: -4.216 P-value: <0.0001 n: 54 Sample Mean: 0.05737 Standard Error: 0.006340 df: 53 95% ConfInt: (0.04465, 0.07009) FINAL PAPER 21 2009 Sample 2009 n Sample Mean Standard Deviation Min Q1 Median Q3 Max 60 0.08700 0.1417 0 0.01365 0.05988 0.1004 1 Null hypothesis: Population mean = 0.0841 Alternative hypothesis: Population mean is not 0.0841 n: 60 Sample Mean: 0.08700 Standard Error: 0.01829 df: 59 t statistic: 0.1585 P-value: 0.8746 n: 60 Sample Mean: 0.08700 Standard Error: 0.01829 df: 59 95% ConfInt: (0.05040, 0.1236) 2010 Sample 2010 n Sample Mean Standard Deviation Min Q1 Median Q3 Max 65 0.05400 0.04837 0 0.007576 0.04651 0.08990 0.2269 Null hypothesis: Population mean = 0.0841 Alternative hypothesis: Population mean is not 0.0841 n: 65 FINAL PAPER 22 Sample Mean: 0.05400 Standard Error: 0.006000 df: 64 t statistic: -5.017 P-value: <0.0001 n: 65 Sample Mean: 0.05400 Standard Error: 0.006000 df: 64 95% ConfInt: (0.04201, 0.06599) 2011 Sample 2011 n Sample Mean Standard Deviation Min Q1 Median Q3 Max 71 0.05383 0.05545 0 0 0.04688 0.08434 0.2727 Null hypothesis: Population mean = 0.0841 Alternative hypothesis: Population mean is not 0.0841 n: 71 Sample Mean: 0.05383 Standard Error: 0.006581 df: 70 t statistic: -4.600 P-value: <0.0001 n: 71 FINAL PAPER 23 Sample Mean: 0.05383 Standard Error: 0.006581 df: 70 95% ConfInt: (0.04071, 0.06695) 2012 Sample n Sample Mean Standard Deviation Min Q1 Median Q3 Max 0.09399 0.1784 0 0.01473 0.04082 0.08422 1 8 2012 5 Null hypothesis: Population mean = 0.0841 Alternative hypothesis: Population mean is not 0.0841 n: 85 Sample Mean: 0.09399 Standard Error: 0.01935 df: 84 t statistic: 0.5111 P-value: 0.6106 n: 85 Sample Mean: 0.09399 Standard Error: 0.01935 df: 84 95% ConfInt: (0.05551, 0.1325) 2013 Sample FINAL PAPER 2013 24 n Sample Mean Standard Deviation Min Q1 Median Q3 Max 95 0.05327 0.05608 0 0 0.04040 0.08108 0.2553 Null hypothesis: Population mean = 0.0841 Alternative hypothesis: Population mean is not 0.0841 n: 95 Sample Mean: 0.05327 Standard Error: 0.005754 df: 94 t statistic: -5.358 P-value: <0.0001 n: 95 Sample Mean: 0.05327 Standard Error: 0.005754 df: 94 95% ConfInt: (0.04185, 0.06469)
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