Measurement of
Unemployment &
Consumer Sentiments in India
a joint initiative by
BSE, CMIE and University of Michigan
Unemployment in India
May – August 2016
Age-Gender
Distributions by
Regions and States
India’s Labour Force (May-August 2016)
A. Population greater than 15 years
B. Employed
C. Unemployed
953 mln.
407 mln.
41 mln.
D. Labour Force (B+C)
E. Unemployed but Inactive
448 mln.
39 mln.
Unemployed, willing to work & actively looking for a job
Unemployed, willing to work but not actively looking for a job
F. Greater Unemployed (C+E)
All those who are unemployed and willing to work
G. Unemployed and unwilling to work
Do not participate in the labour markets at all
80 mln.
466 mln.
Note: All estimations based on current daily status basis.
3
Unemployment in India (May - August 2016)
 Labour Participation Rate (LPR)
Labour force / population, i.e.
(Employed + Unemployed, willing to work & actively looking for a job)/population
 Unemployment Rate (UER)
(Unemployed, willing to work & actively looking for a job)/labour force
47.0%
9.2%
 Greater Labour Participation Rate (GLPR)
51.2%
 Greater Unemployment Rate (GUER)
16.5%
Greater labour force / population, i.e.
(Employed + Unemployed, willing to work & actively looking for a job
+ Unemployed, willing to work but not actively looking for a job)/population
(Unemployed, willing to work & actively looking for a job
+ Unemployed, willing to work but not actively looking for a job)/greater labour force
Note: All estimations based on current daily status basis.
4
Labour Participation Rate (LPR)
India: 47.03% (May - August 2016)
80%
60%
50%
45.24%
48.00%
72.43%
70%
60%
40%
50%
40%
30%
30%
20%
10%
10%
0%
0%
Urban
80%
16.02%
20%
Urban Male
Rural
74.65%
80%
70%
70%
60%
60%
50%
50%
40%
40%
30%
Urban Female
75.83%
30%
16.22%
20%
10%
16.33%
20%
10%
0%
0%
Male
Female
Rural Male
Rural Female
5
Greater Labour Participation Rate (GLPR)
India: 51.17%(May - August 2016)
80%
60%
50%
49.17%
52.25%
75.11%
70%
60%
40%
50%
40%
30%
30%
20%
10%
10%
0%
0%
Urban
90%
80%
21.27%
20%
Urban Male
Rural
90%
77.50%
80%
70%
70%
60%
60%
50%
50%
40%
40%
30%
21.80%
20%
10%
10%
0%
78.75%
30%
20%
Urban Female
22.10%
0%
Male
Female
Rural Male
Rural Female
6
Unemployment Rate (UER)
India: 9.19%(May - August 2016)
12%
35%
10.77%
10%
30.56%
30%
8.38%
8%
25%
20%
6%
15%
4%
10%
2%
5%
6.69%
0%
0%
Urban
Urban Male
Rural
30%
25%
21.37%
24.62%
25%
Urban Female
20%
20%
15%
15%
10%
10%
5.93%
6.18%
5%
5%
0%
0%
Male
Female
Rural Male
Rural Female
7
Greater Unemployment Rate (GUER)
India: 16.53%(May - August 2016)
19%
18%
60%
17.89%
47.69%
50%
18%
40%
17%
30%
17%
15.84%
16%
16%
20%
10%
10.04%
15%
0%
15%
Urban
50%
45%
40%
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
Urban Male
Rural
43.92%
Urban Female
41.90%
45%
40%
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
9.62%
10%
9.42%
5%
0%
Male
Female
Rural Male
Rural Female
8
The Females Challenge
Low Participation & High Unemployment
80%
Labour Participation Rate
74.65%
70%
30%
Unemployment Rate
24.62%
25%
60%
20%
50%
15%
40%
30%
10%
16.22%
20%
6.18%
5%
10%
0%
0%
Male
Male
Female
Greater Labour Participation Rate
90%
80%
77.50%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
21.80%
20%
10%
0%
Male
Female
Female
Greater Unemployment Rate
50%
45%
40%
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
43.92%
9.62%
Male
Female
May - August 2016
9
The Youth Challenge
70%
60%
50%
40%
Labour Participation Rate (%)
30%
20%
10%
Unemployment Rate (%)
0%
15-20
20-25
25-30
30-35
35-40
40-45
45-50
Age Group (Years)
50-55
55-60
60-65
> 65
May – August 2016
10
The Skilling Challenge
UER by Maximum Education Level
20%
18%
18%
16%
14%
13%
12%
9%
10%
8%
6%
5%
4%
3%
2%
0%
No educ.
Upto 5th
6th - 9th
10th - 12th
Grad or more
May - August 2016
11
Labour Participation Rates
Challenges in Rajasthan
60%
56%
56%
54%
51%
50%
48%
48%
47%
47%
46%
46%
46%
46%
46%
46%
45%
45%
43%
43%
42%
42%
41%
40%
38%
30%
20%
10%
0%
TN GA AP MH KA
GJ
OD PB
UK UP
AS
JK
CG BH DL WB MP HR
JH
KL HP
RJ
May - August 2016
12
Unemployment Rates
Challenges in J&K & UP
25%
21.4%
20%
16.8%
15%
13.6%
12.8%
11.9%
10.9% 10.8% 10.8%
9.7%
10%
9.4% 9.2%
7.6%
7.2% 7.1%
6.8% 6.8%
5.6% 5.4%
5%
5.0% 4.8%
2.4%
1.7%
0%
JK
UP
DL
KL GA HR BH
AS OD TN
JH
MP WB MH RJ
PB
KA AP HR CG
GJ
UK
January-April 2016
13
Monthly Unemployment Rates
14%
11.69%
12%
10.43%
11.56%
12.00%
10.95%
10.40%
9.66%
10%
8.60%
8.37%
8.79%
9.02%
8%
8.94%
8.51%
7.70%
7.34%
7.35%
Feb-16
Mar-16
10.20%
7.78%
11.42%
Urban
9.52%
8.47%
Total
Rural
8.59%
8.30%
7.23%
6%
4%
2%
0%
Jan-16
Apr-16
May-16
Jun-16
Jul-16
Aug-16
14
Consumer Sentiments
in India
May – August 2016
Household Income &
Occupation Distributions
by
Regions and States
Consumer Sentiments in India
during May - August 2016
Index of Consumer Sentiments (ICS)
99.30
Index of Current Economic Conditions (ICC) 97.75
Index of Consumer Expectations (ICE)
100.29
Note: Base=100 in September – December 2015.
16
Index of Consumer Sentiments: 99.30
Sentiments inversely proportionate to household income
during May – August 2016
125
Household Income Groups
122.36
120
115
109.51
110
105
100
98.42
95
90
91.55
85
80
Rich
Higher Middle
Income
Middle Income
Poor
Note: Base=100 in September – December 2015
17
Index of Current Economic Conditions: 97.75
Current well-being inversely proportionate to household income
during May - August 2016
125
Household Income Groups
122.07
120
115
110.36
110
105
100
95
96.85
90
88.74
85
80
Rich
Higher Middle
Income
Middle Income
Poor
Note: Base=100 in September – December 2015
18
Index of Consumer Expectations: 100.29
Expectations inversely proportionate to household income
during May - August 2016
125
Household Income Groups
122.54
120
115
108.96
110
105
100
99.42
95
93.35
90
85
80
Rich
Higher Middle
Income
Middle Income
Poor
Note: Base=100 in September – December 2015
19
Index of Consumer Sentiments: 99.30
Better Sentiments in Salaried Classes
during May - August 2016
108
106
Household Occupation Groups
105.11
104
103.17
101.94
101.76
102
100
98.77
98
96
94
95.25
95.07
Sml Trdrs &
Labourers
Misc.
92
Biz & Sal
Employees
Biz.
Salaried
Employees
Retired
Farmers
Note: Base=100 in September – December 2015
20
Index of Current Economic Conditions: 97.75
Economic Conditions of Non-Salaried Classes Worsened
during May - August 2016
108
106
Household Occupation Groups
104.95
104
102.25
101.80
101.35
102
100
98
97.75
96
94
92
Biz & Sal
Employees
Biz.
Salaried
Employees
Retired
Farmers
93.24
93.24
Sml Trdrs &
Labourers
Misc.
Note: Base=100 in September – December 2015
21
Index of Consumer Expectations: 100.29
Greater Expectations in Salaried Classes
during January-April 2016
108
106
Household Occupation Groups
105.20
103.76
104
102.02
102
102.02
100
99.42
98
96
96.53
96.24
Sml Trdrs &
Labourers
Misc.
94
92
Biz & Sal
Employees
Biz.
Salaried
Employees
Retired
Farmers
Note: Base=100 in September – December 2015
22
Index of Consumer Sentiments: 99.30
Rural India Scores during May - August 2016
102
100.91
101
100
99
98
98.34
98.01
97
96
Urban:96.35
95
94.85
94
93.85
93
92
Very Large
Towns
Large Towns
Medium Towns
Small Towns
Rural Regions
Note: Base=100 in September – December 2015
23
Index of Current Economic Conditions: 97.75
Current Conditions Poor Across Regions
during May - August 2016
102
100
99.53
98
97.49
96
95.82
94
Urban:94.56
92.89
92
91.63
90
Very Large
Towns
Large Towns
Medium Towns
Small Towns
Rural Regions
Note: Base=100 in September – December 2015
24
Index of Consumer Expectations: 100.29
Expectations Bright only in Rural India
during May - August 2016
103
101.79
102
101
100
100.00
99
98
97
98.35
Urban:97.52
96
96.14
95
95.32
94
Very Large
Towns
Large Towns
Medium Towns
Small Towns
Rural Regions
Note: Base=100 in September – December 2015
25
Consumer Sentiments in India
during May - August 2016
Consumer Sentiments are better in
 The rich
 The salaried
 The villages
Implies that the better sentiments are bi-modal
Because, the rich & salaried may overlap but the two
may not overlap much with the rural households.
26
Index of Consumer Sentiments: 99.30
during May - August 2016
115
111
110
105
109
108
107
107
104
102
101
101
101
101
100
98
95
96
95
95
95
92
90
91
91
88
85
80
Note: Base=100 in September – December 2015
HR OD PB WB MH UP AP MP
GJ
KA AS TN
81
JK
KL HP CG DL BH GA UK
RJ
81
JH
27
Index of Current Economic Conditions: 97.75
during January-April 2016
115
114
110
110
107
107
106
106
104
105
100
100
99
95
99
95
94
93
93
93
90
91
87
85
80
86
85
85
82
Note: Base=100 in September – December 2015
OD HR
PB
GJ MH UP AP TN
AS WB MP KA GA CG
JK
KL BH HP UK DL
RJ
JH
28
Index of Consumer Expectations: 100.29
during May - August 2016
115
113
111
109
110
107
105
105
105
105
103
101
100
101
100
98
98
95
97
97
96
96
94
90
91
89
85
80
86
Note: Base=100 in September – December 2015
WB HR
PB MH OD KA MP UP
AS
AP HP KL
JK
GJ
TN DL CG BH UK GA
JH
81
RJ
29
Consumer Sentiment Indices
Expectations beat Current Conditions
102
101.16
101
100.88
100.29
100
ICE
100.45
99.13
99
98.94
99.13
98.65
98
98.55
99.1
97.98
97.89
98.06
99.13
ICS
99.47
98.77
98.06
97.71
ICC
98.2
98.2
Jul-16
Aug-16
97.11
97.3
97
97.3
96.4
96
Jan-16
Feb-16
Mar-16
Apr-16
May-16
Jun-16
30
Consumer Sentiment Indices
Sentiments better in Rural India
104
103.28
102.73
Rural
102
100.88
100
100.18
99.82
99.27
98.91
98.94
98
97.51
98.01
99.47
98.36
97.89
100.36
97.71
98.06
98.17
98.77
Total
98.06
96.84
96
95.85
95.85
94
Urban
94.02
93.52
92
Jan-16
Feb-16
Mar-16
Apr-16
May-16
Jun-16
Jul-16
Aug-16
31
Thank You
32