1
Typhoon Haiyan –
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A storm for the record books.
EVANS ON CAMERA
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Capt. Evans: We knew // this was going to
get pretty big.
Drawing power from ocean and air
It becomes a savage monster
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nearly 300 miles across.
WEBER
Winds of 195 mph gusts up to 240 mph
//Right now it’s as big and as mean as a
cyclone can actually probably get on this
planet.
Dr David Robinson
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This actually went off the scale. It was a
monster storm.
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On November 8, 2013, it becomes
what could be the most powerful
typhoon in recorded history to make
landfall.
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Prof Kerry Emanuel
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This storm peaked right as it was going
ashore at the Philippines ...that’s the
tragedy.
Haiyan brings terrifying winds
Torrential rain
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And a deadly, high-speed flood.
Weber
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Thee twenty foot storm surge came almost
instantaneously, like a tsunami. The
devastation underneath this storm I unlike
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anything else we’ve seen underneath a
tropical system before
In it’s terrible aftermath –
thousands of lives –
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lost.
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Paulo: We did not expect that there will be
a flood that will be coming.
Georgina:
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Gigi: So many died because of the water…
Neighbours, families by families.
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Almost immediately – the questions
begin.
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Why so much so much dead, so much
casualty, with this typhoon? The media,
the local media, even our own weather
centre, underestimated the surge.
Could the deadly flood -the storm surge -have been predicted?
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And catastrophe averted?
NEEDHAM
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We really have a long way to go with storm
surge modelling. We’ve come a long way
but we have a way to go.
Is Haiyan a sign of things to come –
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the first of a new breed of super
typhoon?
3
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Are we loading the deck or loading the dice
towards more intense storms in the future
as we provide a warmer base of ocean
water for these storms to tap into?
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What could happen if the next killer
storm strikes closer to home?
SHEPHERD
EMMANUEL
20
If that storm had hit the south eastern US,
it was so powerful that I think it would
have been as much a disaster.
The race is on to understand
the Killer Typhoon –
Right now
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On Nova.
DOC BODY
GRAPHIC TITLES:
Typhoons
BROLL: TYPHOON
FOOTAGE
Explosive storms that bring torrential
rain,
flooding
and screaming winds.
Typhoon is the term given to
hurricanes that form in the
Northwestern Pacific Ocean.
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MARSHALL SHEPHERD
GRAPHIC: MAP: Globe
to Widest map. 7secs
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Hurricanes and typhoons are some the
most massive storms on the planet//
and//We see very strong typhoons in the
Western Pacific more commonly than the
people may think.
4
BROLL: Happy Tropical
Island and Beach
Shots
are some of the warmest waters on
the planet
fertile breeding ground for monster
storms.
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Here among the tropical islands North
of Australia –
GRAPHIC: Track of 12
storms over Wide Map
maybe with names
By late October, two-thousand
thirteen, this region has already
produced 14 typhoons.
And now unlucky number 15 begins to
form
A killer whose name will soon become
synonymous
with devastation
and heart-breaking loss –
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Haiyan.
START CLOCK
ARCHIVE: Satellite
showing Tropical
depression
w/ clock over top
Eight days before it reaches land,
Haiyan begins as what’s called a
tropical depression –
a system of thunderstorms with winds
less than 30 miles an hour –
near Micronesia.
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EXT. JTWC
The region is closely monitored by the
Navy’s Joint Typhoon Warning Center
in Honolulu Hawaii.
MILLS ON CAMERA
Lt. Mills: We first noticed a weak
disturbance Southeast of Pohnpi Island
which is in the Micronesian Islands, the
eastern most quadrant of the Micronesian
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LOWER THIRD
5
Islands on November 1st.
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BROLL: Computer
screen of storm
tracking
// We kept tracking there until we kind of
saw a broad general circulation.
GRAPHIC: TYPHOON
101
Tropical storms form over water 80
degrees Fahrenheit or warmer.
TYPHOON FORMATION
The heat drives evaporation.
WARM WATER +
HUMID AIR
And as the rising vapor cools
RISING COLUMN
STARTS TO SPIN
it forms clouds –
Releasing energy as wind and rain.
The warmer the water, the more
energy available to power the storm.
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EVANS ON CAMERA
Lower Third
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BROLL: Storm footage
clouds and water?
BROLL: JWTC at
Computers
Capt. Evans: We knew we had a pretty rich
// set of ingredients because we had warm
ocean temperatures underneath it and it
was pretty good circulation that it build up
so now this was going to get pretty big.
Over the next 24 hours, the storm
system continues to grow in size and
strength.
The rotation of the earth causes the
strengthening system to spin -counter-clockwise in the northern
hemisphere.
When wind speeds top 25 knots –
about 30 miles per hour --
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the NAVY issues it’s first alert.
MILLS O/C
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Lt. Mills: Our first warning went out on
November 3rd at 1:00 a.m. Eastern
Standard Time.
6
BROLL: Computer
Model Images
At that point our model fields // extended
out to //5 days, // but 5 days out there
was a lot of uncertainty.
GRAPHIC: Ocean Shot
with graphic overlay
showing warm water
trench
Very early on, the computers predicted
that Haiyan would continue tracking
over a layer of unusually thick warm
water –
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86 degrees to a depth of 300 feet.
BROLL: Storm footage
More than enough fuel to fan the
flames of a strong storm.
But just how strong, no one could yet
know.
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MILLS OC
BROLL: Storm footage
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MILLS: In the forecasting community, //
intensity is the difficult thing to forecast.
We knew it was going to be a strong
storm, we didn’t know exactly how strong,
but // we knew it was going to be big one.
BROLL: Storm Footage
On November 4th, 36 hours after the
first warning, Haiyan becomes a
typhoon –
B-ROLL: wind, storm
clouds, rough seas
now with sustained wind speeds of
more than 65 knots –
CLOCK goes to 5
about 75 miles an hour.
And it is growing stronger with
alarming speed.
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GRAPHIC MAP
Lt. Mills: At that point it was just // south
of Guam, within the next 24 hours after
that //
MILLS OC
it intensified 65 Knots, so it doubled the
intensity. And at that point we are tracking
it at 130 Knots, 130 Knots is considered
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7
super typhoon.
B-ROLL: Wind, storm
clouds, rough seas
A super typhoon.
With sustained wind speeds above a
hundred and fifty miles an hour.
As destructive as the most notorious
killer hurricanes --
BROLL: Katrina
BROLL: ANDREW
BROLL: CAMILLE
like Katrina that hit New Orleans in
2005
Andrew, that hit Florida with a 17 foot
storm surge in 1992
And even Camille, in 1969 –
with wind speeds near 200 miles an
hour at landfall.
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Storm B-roll
And with every passing minute –
Haiyan continues to grow in size and
power -
GRAPHIC: Showing
track as it leads to
Philippines (Need to
figure out how to
reveal Philippines)
And looks likely to slam into one of the
region’s most vulnerable targets:
BROLL:
More than 7000 islands –
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The Philippines.
120,000 square miles of land
About the size of Italy – but with
nearly double the number of people.
And a population density 10 times that
of the U.S.
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It’s considered a newly industrialized
country with a growing economy –
but millions of people still live
precariously -while facing a multitude of natural
threats.
Prof Kathleen Teirney,
Director of the Natural
Hazards Center,
University of Colorado
ARCHIVE: Philippines
Disaster Footage
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B-ROLL: Aerial, Filipinos
The Philippines is //subject to a variety of
different natural hazards including…
Volcanoes … typhoons … earthquakes…
flooding… landslides… //but// at the same
time // it is a socially vulnerable place //
with // many, many people living in
extreme poverty.
The millions of Philippino people living
in coastal communities are
accustomed to occasional typhoons –
even super typhoons.
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In the days leading up to landfall –
most residents are taking the storm’s
approach in stride.
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Father Hector: It was not an alarming
thing for us… We been used to typhoon. So
it was not something extraordinary to be
worried about”
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Susan Tan: Everything was just so
normal. I mean day-to-day operation of
the grocery // people buying but not in
panic.
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9
SATELLITE PHOTO
But Haiyan is already far stronger than
most typhoons –
thanks to near ideal atmospheric
conditions.
GRAPHIC
In a strengthening typhoon
1) Show rising
column
warm air rises through the eye like
smoke up a chimney
2) Cross winds hit
the column and it
dissolves like
smoke
cross winds called wind shear can
disrupt or block that flow – weakening
the storm.
3) The cross winds
die down and the
column reforms
and grows
stronger
But in the vicinity of Haiyan, wind
shear is low.
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GRAPHIC
Additionally the column of rising air
benefits from winds in the upper
atmosphere
EVANS
In the upper levels you need to have
outflow from the storm and that’s basically
wind in a position that’s going to carry the
energy that comes up through the
atmosphere away from the centre of the
storm,
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GRAPHIC
The high altitude winds create a
suction effect at the top of the storm –
drawing even more warm air in at the
bottom of the column -feeding the storm like a roaring blaze
in a well-ventilated fireplace.
EVANS I'm drawing lots of moisture, lots of
air // -- hot energy up into the chimney //
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I've got all the ingredients down at the
bottom; I'm going to grow a nice hot warm
crackling fire.
As the storm reaches it’s peak
intensity the atmospheric pressure in
the eye drops -possibly to one of the lowest levels
ever observed –
on par with the previous record, which
was set 35 years ago.
57
[00:22:52.10]
Dr. J. Marshall Shepherd: The lowest
recorded atmospheric pressure ever on the
planet was recorded in a super typhoon,
super Typhoon Tip from 1979.
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Early on with Typhoon Haiyan, many of us
suspected that it could rival Tip in terms of
its strength just based on the structure and
the intensity that we saw from various
satellite datasets.
11
Low pressure is an indication of how
rapidly air is moving up through the
eye.
Looking down at the top of the storm,
satellite images also reveal that there
is heavy outflow at high altitude –
60
not one, but two streams of warm air.
MILLS:
We were able to identify what we call dual
channel outflow.
That means you have an enhanced outflow
situation, which just allows that system to
breathe better, vents better, allows it to
grow and intensify even more.
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Satellite Photo
showing dual channel
outflow
EVANS: In the Western Pacific we use a
technique, it’s the called Dvorak method
and it’s where you actually look at the
cloud structure, the banding of a particular
typhoon, and you create a Dvorak number.
63
Pan showing Dvorak
Chart ending up at 8
Dvorak numbers indicate wind speed.
B-ROLL JTWC
On November 7th at 7:00 a.m. our Sat
Analyst //looked back at me and she said,
sir, we are at 8.0/8.0.
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And there was yet another sign of the
storm’s incredible power.
Lt. Mills
The highest number on the scale is 8 –
reserved for the most powerful storms
on record.
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(OC) 8.0/8.0 the Dvorak scale corresponds
to 170 Knots.
BROLL: Wind
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170 knots
195 miles an hour.
Dr David Robinson
ID WITH NJ
AFFILIATION
67
CLOCK GOES 2
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This is a visible satellite image of the storm
at its strongest point and you can look
right down in the eye and see the ocean
waters below. // The strongest winds – this
is a daytime image – are right round the
eye wall. This is a daytime image the
storm is reaching it’s peak strength at this
time … this is just an incredibly powerful
storm.
On the afternoon of November 7th, the
Philippine weather service upgrades
their typhoon warning to storm signal
4–
the highest possible.
B-ROLL
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But for those on the ground in harm’s
way, there is still little tangible sign of
what is about to hit.
70
Gigi: There was only a few rains and even
when we were already signal number four,
very fine weather… so we were me I was
so surprised I was even telling myself and
my kids it’s ok to have signal number four.
Finally, those living along the coast
begin to take note.
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But preparations are far from
adequate.
Gigi Sync: We started to pack our things
we buy plastics, cellophane, plastic put our
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books and tv we covered it in cellophane
Haiyan is now almost 300 miles
across.
Forecasters around the world are
watching intently – looking hopefully
for some sign that it might weaken.
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Prof Kerry Emanuel
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As Haiyan approached land forecasters got
better data from satellites and it became
very clear this is a storm of unusual
intensity we were looking at a potentially
catastrophic storm
One reason for alarm -- Haiyan is
unusually consistent.
It intensified very rapidly and is now
maintaining that intensity.
75
Dr. J. Marshall Shepherd:
[00:35:16.10]
Typically tropical cyclones, typhoon or
hurricane go through an ebb and flow cycle
in terms of if its intensity or even it's
tracked to some degree.
One of the best examples that I can think
of is Hurricane Katrina. As it was making
its way through the Gulf of Mexico it
blossomed into a Category 5 Storm
relatively quickly and that was because it
moved over a pool of warm water called
the Loop Current. // After it moved off of
that Loop Current, intensity went down
some.
76
Typhoon Haiyan maintained a relatively
consistent track and a relatively consistent
intensity // as it was traversing the warm
Pacific Ocean.
14
With ample warm water –
and undisturbed by wind shear
77
Haiyan shows no sign of weakening.
Shepherd
It was a strong storm, it remained a strong
storm and it made landfall as a strong
storm.
Jeff Weber
Right now it’s as big and mean as a
cyclone can actually probably get on this
planet // winds of 195 mph gust up to 240.
Prof Kerry Emanuel
This storm peaked right as it was going
ashore at the Philippines ...that’s the
tragedy.
MILLS
Just knowing…people are going to die on
this one. [transcribe]
INITIAL HIT
Finally at 4:40am, local time on the
morning of Friday, November 8th
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80
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Typhoon Haiyan hits the East Coast of
the Philippines and unleashes a
nightmare.
82
Most homes and buildings simply
cannot withstand such intense 200
mile an hour winds.
83
Susan Tan: Roofs flying, and something
un-believable things, motorbikes flying and
even air conditioning units.
84
Gigi: Our house was already shaking as if
the wind was going to uproot the house.
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Residents take shelter in a local
church.
86
Father Hector: I saw the windows already
gone. Coming-in through the window
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already gone wind coming inside all with a
mist white all white -- woo, woo, woo.
Dr David Robinson
87
The wind speeds themselves were as if you
had a moderate to strong tornado coming
through tornadoes pass over in a minute or
two but these winds are blowing for an
hour or two in some locations.
88
The wind shreds countless homes.
Carmelita: The roof was blown away. I was
so scared, praying to the heavens saying:
“Please stop this rain.”
89
At 5 a.m. our house was destroyed.
Families find themselves exposed to
the full fury of the elements –
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improvising ways to protect
themselves.
91
Carlito: This was where he hid after our
house collapsed. We stayed right here. I
crouched over all of them. I called their
names. I said Sarah, take care of Precious,
her baby. Over here was Kristel, and Laiza,
there was Jamaica, Marife, Aaron and
Angel. I huddled them together”
LET STORM BUILD UP
Dr David Robinson
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This actually went off the scale. It was a
monster storm. A textbook example of a
classically strong super typhoon. This was
a terrifying storm.
The city of Tacloban on Leyte Island –
home to 200,000 – takes the full force
of the storm.
16
Almost immediately, the local hospital
is threatened.
The medical staff scrambles to move
patients away from windows and
exterior walls.
Nurse Paulo: We asked our patients to get
out of their rooms and to slowly be on the
basement or first floor.
We that at that time it was safe for us. We
place our patients here only with their IV
intravenous fluids.
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So here they pile up here.
SURGE
Normally, seeking shelter on a low
floor offers protection from the wind
and rain.
But now there’s a new – and far
deadlier threat.
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Storm surge.
SHEPHERD
Storm surge is one of the most hazardous
aspects of any typhoon or hurricane.
Jeff Weber
This storm is so intense it had been
developed for so long across the ocean
that it had in incredible amount of water
behind it.
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As this was coming onshore the storm
surge was as high as 20 feet.
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GRAPHIC
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1) See winds cycling
counterclockwise
over the ocean –
top down.
2) Transition to profile
view – to see
vertical circulation.
A storm surge begins when wind
pushes water across the surface of the
ocean.
That displacement pulls more water
upward from below.
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3) Increase size and
speed of wind, see
the vertical
circulation amplify
We see the seafloor come
up as it reaches land –
the circulation is
restricted at the bottom
and the water bulges up.
If the storm maintains its strength
the continuing churn sets up a vertical
circulation – a underwater wave.
The warmer the water, the larger the
storm, the faster the winds –
the bigger the wave.
As it approaches land and the water
becomes shallower -- the wave bulges
upward – causing sea level to rise.
The incredible intensity of Haiyan
drives a huge storm surge
which is now crashing over the
coastline.
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It’s unlike anything the people here
have experienced in the past.
With water now just seconds away
from the hospital,
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the decision to move patients lower in
the building has put them all in grave
danger.
Nurse Paulo: The first water was up to
here. Only clear water. Then after that we
see the surge blackish water and the surge
and the wind and the flood was up to here,
blackish water was up to here. So we try to
assist our patients and get to the second
floor to get up so we will be safe.
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103
At the local church, the wind has
destroyed the roof
so when the surge pours into the
ground floor
There’s nowhere to hide.
Father Hector: I said ok I cannot go up
and take refuge, but I cannot go down
anymore because the water was rising up
here, so that’s the thing. It’s either the
water or the wind. It’s almost like the devil
or the deep blue sea.
104
Almost every typhoon brings some
flooding –
but this typhoon is something else
entirely.
In minutes, the storm surge ravages
the coastline –
sweeping away weak buildings –
bringing floodwaters 20 feet deep.
105
One reason for the extreme height of
the surge is Tacloban’s location.
NEED MAP OF
TACLOBAN?
The city happens to sit inside a
relatively shallow, protected bay.
As the surge approaches, the shallow
offshore terrain pushes the water up.
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4) CONTINUE
EARLIER
GRAPHIC
And at the same time, the narrow
confines of the bay squeeze the water,
causing it to rise even further.
Hal Needham: In a storm surge event,
strong onshore winds can really funnel
water into these bays, so it’s a little bit
counterintuitive, these areas that tend to
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be the safest for cities or marinas in a
storm surge event often are the most
dangerous.
The height of the surge brings
horrendous flooding and destruction
108
but there’s another reason that the
surge is so deadly.
109
The exceptional thing about this storm
surge with super typhoon Haiyan was the
speed at which it came into some of these
areas like around the City of Tacloban.
Jeff Weber
Storms surges generally come in
increments a foot a foot or two, a meter at
a time.
WE CAN MAKE THE
POINT OF GRADUAL –
PUT BACK IN SANDY
One recent example of a gradual
surge–
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Hurricane Sandy
the powerful storm that pushed up to
14 feet of water onto New York and
New Jersey over more than 24 hours.
BUT Haiyan’s storm surge arrives in
just minutes.
111
Weber
112
Video from this storm shows the twentyfoot storm surge came almost
instantaneously like a tsunami and so the
devastation underneath the storm is unlike
anything else we have ever seen in tropical
storm system on this planet before.
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113
For those near the coast.
There is no escape
And for those whose houses have been
destroyed –
the rushing water is deadly.
Carlito: Then the water came in. I told
them: Get up! Up! Water!' And just like
that the water rose up to my chest. It was
not a normal flood from rainwater, but a
wave coming in from the shore. It was so
sudden. It was at my ankles then suddenly
up to my chest and the next wave brought
the water up to my neck until I was
completely submerged.
My child held on to my shoulder to keep
me near.
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GRAPHIC
It is rapidly shifting winds offshore
that are causing the surge to come in
with the speed of a tsunami.
As the rotating storm approaches, the
first winds to strike the bay come from
north of the eye – blowing north to
south.
That powerful force initially shoves
water away from the city.
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GRAPHIC
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GRAPHIC
The winds were actually blowing offshore
and that was keeping the water away or
even producing what we call a negative
storm surge, where sometimes water is
actually pushed out of the bay.
21
117
Then, as the storm passes, winds
coming from South of the eye –
blowing in the opposite direction
come into play.
Water rushes back into the bay -pushed powerfully forward by the
reversing winds.
118
and that’s what produce the sudden
dangerous and deadly storm surge.
The city of Tacloban is inundated.
119
At the hospital, the staff uses floating
mattresses to rescue the old and
infirm.
Nurse Paulo sync:
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This was is the level of the water. Up to
here the patient was floating we slowly
assist the patient in his hospital bed …
there is a gushing of wind there is a strong
current of the water. The other patients
were terrified, were in panic and we assist
the patients to be in that bed. The bed was
to slowly carry the patient up to here so we
can have rescue here.
Gigi sync: The water was so sudden. It
came so sudden. My children were crying.
They were all, they were in panic.
Everything floated like a paper. The
refrigerator … the divider and the flat
screen tv and everything…it floated like a
paper”
They had steeled themselves for high
winds and torrential rain.
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122
But there was no way they could have
foreseen this huge wave of fastmoving water –
so unlike anything anyone living here
had ever experienced.
Priest Hector sync: We never consider the
storm surge. // And the destruction that it
would bring us.
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Dr David Robinson
It was a combination of the incredibly
strong winds and massive storm surge and
if you were harms way you may have lost
your life if you didn’t lose your life I
guarantee you were terrified for several
hours as this storm came across your area.
AFTERMATH 1 / AID
20 hours after it makes landfall –
Haiyan clears the Philippines.
124
Great swaths of the 7,0000 plus
islands that make up the Philippine
archipelago are devastated.
Leaving this.
An apocalyptic landscape.
An unimaginable toll in human lives
and property.
At least 6000 thousand dead
Eighteen hundred missing.
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And around 4 million people homeless
In the immediate aftermath survivors
struggle to understand why this storm
brought so much suffering.
126
Father Hector Villamil
127
Why so much so much dead, so much
casualty, with this typhoon? The media,
the local media, even our own weather
23
centre, underestimated the surge. They
were only monitoring the direction of this
typhoon, the speed and the strength. But
never mentioning about the surge.
Edgar Tabuyan
That’s one of the reasons they were
confident they were staying at home,
because they do not know what is a storm
surge.
128
Father Hector Villamil
And they could have evacuated. Mandatory
evacuation for all the people living in the
sea line – one or two kilometres inland. But
the thing, it didn’t happen.
So they said that during the typhoon, they
were actually here, they did not evacuate,
there were here, there were three families
inside, and when the surge came in
destroyed the house and split them up.
And in the process they lost a lot of their
family members. The mother.
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Mother
The mother, my three children and two
children of my sister.
130
The Philippine weather service did
predict a large storm surge –
but no one expected that it would
come so quickly into places like
Tacloban.
131
Part of the challenge is in the difficulty
of predicting just how intense a
typhoon will be at the moment when it
reaches land.
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NEEDHAM
That becomes a little bit difficult // because
you have a lot of complex things
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happening. // how will these different
ingredients like the track of the storm, the
wind speed, how will all of these things
really affect the water height.
We really have a long way to go with storm
surge modelling. We’ve come a long way
but we have a long way to go.
Surge models depend not only on the
coastal geography –
but also on wind speed and direction
at landfall.
In a powerful typhoon, those variables
can change rapidly –
making the kind of precise prediction
that might have saved Tacloban
extremely difficult – if not impossible.
134
NEEDHAM
Tacloban, which was devastated from
Typhoon Haiyan, if you shift that track a
little bit, in the next storm they might not
get a storm surge at all.
136
Even without the surge such a
sustained bombardment was bound to
bring death and destruction.
But there were also signs that life is
very resilient.
137
Across the islands –
138
many new babies weren’t willing to
wait for the storm to pass.
139
Carmelita: My husband shouted out – ‘The
baby’s here… it’s born!’. We were just
thankful that we survived”
STORM PASSES
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140
IMMEDIATE AFTERMATH
In the immediate aftermath of Haiyan,
many survivors have no water, food or
shelter.
Some places are so remote that
essential help is slow to arrive.
When some airports open a day later –
aid begins to arrive for the victims of
Typhoon Haiyan.
Cargo planes ferry high-energy
biscuits, rice, water and other supplies
from the U.S.
141
RELIEF EFFORT
Tower Controller:
Hey Walter come here, that staff sergeant
right there, tell him we need a lot of man
power to get that C130 offloaded as soon
as possible. We’re going to get some
marines as well.
142
The American military deploys a strike
group from Hong Kong and Japan.
Nine ships, 23 helicopters and 7000
personnel, to distribute 300 tons of aid
to storm-ravaged islands.
143
Lieutenant Commander
Damon Loveless
USS George Washington
Strike Group
144
145
So this is a helicopter landing. It’s one of
the helicopters of the strike group. And
we’re getting ready to load up people and
supplies.
We are bringing food, water supplies,
shelter and medicine to everyone that we
can get supplies to and right after that
we’re trying to get the most urgent need –
typically people that are isolated on
smaller islands that can only be accessed
by boats or helicopter
In the first few days military
experience proves invaluable.
26
Lieutenant Commander
Damon Loveless
USS George Washington
Strike Group
146
Dr Irwin Redlener,
National Center for
Disaster Preparedness,
Columbia University
147
It’s quite busy but it’s something that the
military is actually quite good at and er as
marine corps logistics specialist they are in
position. They makes stuff happen and
keep supplies at the front and in this case
the front is disaster relief.
In the immediate phase after a storm like
this we’re trying to do two things, we’re
trying to rescue people who are in lifethreatening situations and we’re trying to
provide them care to save their lives and
then the second phase is to keep people
safe and alive who survived the initial
impact because after about 72 hours, after
about 3 days people who survived but now
need things like clean water, antibiotics,
shelter and didn’t get it are not surviving.
The military response is critical.
Equipped to move quickly and able to
reach inaccessible places -- they are
the first to arrive.
But after a few days, the job falls to
non-governmental agencies and other
specialists – who are already laying
the groundwork for a longer-term
effort.
148
Cat Carter, Save the
Children
149
So far this has been very effective from
what I have seen this has been one of the
most effective responses actually I had
some real struggles getting aid in at the
start because of the logistical challenge the
airport was destroyed the command centre
was destroyed no electricity, the roads
were clogged with debris and dead bodies
so huge logistical challenges but now that’s
up and running now that we’ve got a way
in we can see the aid effort just multiplying
over the next couple of days”.
27
As the slow and difficult process of rebuilding gets under way,
questions are again being asked
about whether this latest killer storm
is linked to climate change.
150
Greenhouse gases like carbon dioxide
generated by burning fossil fuels –
are building up in our atmosphere insulating our planet -holding in more of the sun’s heat and
driving the temperature up.
What role do those rising
temperatures play in the intensity of
storms?
151
Jeff Weber
Atmosphere Scientist,
152
University Corporation for
Atmospheric Research,
Colorado.
Dr Irwin Redlener,
Some scientists feel that it may not have a
consequence in terms of the frequency of
these storms but it may have a big
consequence in terms of the intensity of
these storms
Prof Kerry Emanuel
One of the great myths of climate change
is that it is controversial among scientists.
It is not. 97% of all scientists who actually
work on climate … agree.
Prof Kerry Emanuel
The only sensible approach is to regard this
as a problem of risk, there will never be
certainty. If we are very, very lucky
maybe nothing of much important will
happen; if we are very unlucky, it will be
153
154
155
Typhoon Haiyan was not caused by global
warming, global warming or a warmer
environment could have exacerbated
typhoon Haiyan, typhoon Haiyan was going
to happen because it had the energy and it
had the atmospheric conditions ready for it
to develop.”
28
catastrophic.
Prof Kerry Emanuel
We think there is a relationship between
incidents of intense storms and climate
change // but we don’t actually expect to
be able to see that in real data perhaps for
another few decades.
Dr. J. Marshall Shepherd:
The way I like to frame that is in terms of
steroid use in baseball. I can't tell you
specifically which homerun a Major League
Baseball hit was caused by steroid use. But
in the average we know that during steroid
era there were homeruns and there were
longer homeruns. And so that's kind of
how I frame the discussion about climate
change and hurricanes any specific
typhoon [TRANSCRIBE]
156
COVER MORE
// Are we loading the deck or loading the
dice towards more intense storms in the
future as we provide a warmer base of
ocean water for these storms to tap into?
157
Warmer oceans cause water volume to
expand
At the same time, glaciers are
melting...
The result:
158
Sea level around the world is rising.
Jeff Weber
A rising sea level makes these storms far
more dangerous because it puts that many
people at risk with the storm surge
Prof Kerry Emanuel
What’s not so commonly known about sea
level rises is that it is not globally uniform.
The Philippines is one of the parts of the
world where we have seen in the past 20
or 30 years the most rapid rise in sea level.
I think in the past 30 years it was about 8
inches or so higher than it was before.
159
160
29
Dr David Robinson
161
It’s not gonna take as powerful a storm
surge to create the damage we saw from
Haiyan if sea level is one or two feet higher
fifty years from now. So the vulnerability of
our coastal communities that are
traditionally or historically in the path of
these storms is only going to get worse
just from sea level rising let alone the fact
that we may have more of these storms or
more powerful storms.
Haiyan’s storm surge was a function of
the strength and direction of its winds
–
as well as the shape of the coastline
and the underwater terrain.
Conditions not unique to the
Philippines.
162
Prof Kerry Emanuel
We might be tempted to think in the
developed world you know if that same
storm had hit America or Britain the
consequences would have been a lot less. I
don’t think so. If that storm had hit the
south eastern U.S., it was so powerful that
I think it would have been as much a
disaster - economically a lot more of a
disaster just because there’s so much more
stuff there.
BRING IN TAMPA / ST.
PETE POSSIBLY HERE
One densely settled area in the U.S.
that might be particularly vulnerable
to a lethal storm surge is on the West
coast of Florida.
163
Tampa and St. Petersburg.
164
165
Home to almost 3 million people.
This area has all the factors that could
produce a really devastating storm surge,
they have a Bay there that can really
funnel water into that area, they are in the
sub-tropics there, so they can receive
strikes from hurricanes and tropical
30
cyclones.
GRAPHIC
Many hurricanes that hit Florida travel
East to West – across the Peninsula.
166
GRAPHIC
167
But in 1848, two hurricanes made
landfall north of Tampa traveling
Northeast -pushing a large surge towards land.
Some storm surge modellers have said
that you can get a storm surge exceeding
20 feet in the Tampa Bay Area.
168
Because no one alive has experienced
that type of hurricane -few in harm’s way are prepared for its
effects.
169
NEEDHAM
170
If you drive around the Tampa area, if you
look at the flood defenses you will often
see huge subdivisions with very expensive
homes right up to the waterfront // easily
in an major storm surge those homes
which would just be completely washed
away. // You need a very specific track to
funnel water into that Bay.
It doesn't
happen too frequently, but it has happened
before and it will probably happen again.
And that’s just one community that
may be vulnerable.
In an era of rising sea levels hundreds
of millions of people around the world
may be affected by coastal flooding.
171
31
172
The aftermath in the Philippines
makes plain the stakes for any
vulnerable coastal community –
threatened with a category 5
hurricane or super-typhoon.
Haiyan has created one of the worst
resettlement crises in recent memory.
Around 4 million people have been
displaced – more than twice the
number made homeless by the deadly
tsunami that struck Indonesia in 2004.
In the hardest hit towns – the relief
effort will need to continue for years.
Even those who have witnessed other
catastrophes have difficulty coming to
terms with the extent of the loss.
173
Cat Carter
Save the Children
174
I came down walking just a few days after
I arrived and I looked over the ocean //
and I remember seeing a boat out on the
sea and thinking // that you know, oh
that’s great they’re fishing again, it’s a sign
of resilience, look how quickly they’re got
past this disaster and it took a while I think
for my brain to catch up with what my
eyes were seeing and I realised that they
weren’t fishing, they were pulling dead
bodies from the water // and all along the
beach they’d lined up dead bodies and lots
of them were children and that was kind of
the moment for me that the enormity of
what had happened came crashing down
around me.
32
176
In the town, sick and injured people
flooded into Bethany Hospital.
Nurse Paulo Pardilla worked tirelessly
to save lives, but he had no idea if his
own family was dead or alive.
177
Nurse Paulo: I had no communication with
them because the cellular phones the link
of communication was shut down but I was
just praying that my family was safe.
Paulo spent 24 hours helping in the
hospital.
Then he walked to his home in a
village on the outskirts of the city.
There was no transport.
Everything was in ruins.
He had no idea what he would find. It
took him a day.
178
But to his relief, his mother and family
were all alive.
179
Gilma Pardilla: First time in my life, this is
the strongest storm I ever experienced.
Paulo’s brother’s family, next door, all
survived.
180
But their house did not.
181
Nurse Paulo Pardillo: It was the fruit tree a big branch of that was able to fell on the
on the house of my brother.
182
Patrick Pardilla: So my daughter was so
scared so we ran out and go to my
mother’s house.
33
183
The concrete walls of Paulo’s mother’s
house withstood the fierce winds of
Haiyan, but they were no protection
against the storm surge.
Flood waters rushed through the
house, and for eight hours the family
huddled together on the steps.
Gilma Pardilla: We sit down here my
granddaughter, my daughter-in-law here,
my husband standing, holding the ceiling
because it might fall to us. We just keep
on praying Lord may save us.
184
Paulo’s family were some of the lucky
ones.
But when the typhoon had passed, the
city of Tacloban was a disaster zone.
Whole neighbourhoods were left
barely recognisable.
185
Father Hector Villamil: You cannot see
many of the houses there because it’s
covered with foliage like trees and leaves
but now you can see even that mountain at
the end. Now it’s all gone.
186
Dr Irwin Redlener,
187
National Center for
Disaster Preparedness,
Columbia University
In many developing countries there is no
choice. If you want to support your family
and yourself, you have to live near the
coast. You are forced to remain in place
even in these high hazard zones.
Many survivors are haunted by
memories of what they endured during
the storm.
188
With his home blown away, Carlito
Arias found himself desperately
holding on to his children as the sea
surge came rushing in.
34
Carlito: My child held on to me but the
next wave took me far away from them.
That was the most painful part, I couldn’t
protect them any longer.
189
Once the storm passed, Carlito
searched for his children.
One by one, he found their bodies.
He was then left with the task of
building a grave for those he lost.
190
Carlito Arias
I told the family the news, that we didn’t
have a choice but to bury them ourselves.
So we wrapped them well in hand-woven
mats.
191
The burial was swift.
No time for the usual embalming and
coffins.
They were laid to rest – all together –
in a sacred place.
192
CARLITO: I want to cement it well. To
show I haven’t forgotten and still love
them.
Prof Kerry Emanuel
193
194
I don’t think anybody could have dealt with
this typhoon because it was so out of the
normal range of intensities.
Haiyan became as destructive as it did
because of a coincidence of very
favourable circumstances. Haiyan had
everything going for it in some sense the
people of the Philippines had everything
going against them in this event.
Among the millions of people left
without a roof over their heads are
Georgina Bulasa and her husband.
35
195
Georgina: That is my husband. Building a
house, a very simple one. He is just using
whatever is usable now. Besides we do not
have the money to buy materials and there
is no store open, so me and my husband
are hoping that in due time we will be able
to start anew again.
Nurse Paulo Pardilla is back to helping
those affected by the typhoon.
196
With Tacloban’s hospital flooded, relief
workers have set up a temporary
medical centre.
Nurse Paulo Pardilla: What’s new in the
last two days for us is a feeling of joy and
hope especially for us nurses as we can
continue our work.
197
Today our hospital is not yet opening or
not yet in service. The tent hospital is a
means for us to continue rendering care
and service to the people especially to
those who have been affected by the
typhoon.
The Philippine government estimates
the cost of reconstruction at around 8
billion dollars.
In the affected area, key industries
such as agriculture and fishing have
all but been destroyed.
For the people on the ground, it would
be easy to be overwhelmed, but the
job now is to rebuild.
198
199
Edgar: We don’t have no plan to go
elsewhere, but to stay here and rebuild
whatever we can because this is our home.
No place like sweet home.
36
200
The priority for Father Hector is his
parish.
This is a religious community and for
many the church is needed more than
ever.
Father Hector Villamil: We always have
that strong spirit to rebuild in our own little
way, in our own simple way. We don’t have
a roof over our heads. But the thing is,
they will do their best to celebrate that
mass and I believe they would be coming
in to be grateful to God for their lives.
201
202
Carmelita: What are we going to do? Even
money to buy little things, we don’t have
any. So what are we going to do?
203
Georgina: We hoping that big hope that
slowly we’re going to make it back to
normal again.
Father Hector VIllamil: It’s a tradition for
Philippinos that they never give up even in
spite of all this disaster. In spite of all the
tragedies they won’t give up.
We lost a lot of lives and that’s a fact that
we have to accept and to live with. It will
take some times. It’s part of our culture
that in spite of all the pains and suffering
that we have endured they’re still smiling.
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