Herbicide Resistance – a global issue:
Economic impact and farmer´s reaction
Dr. Thomas de Witte
Thünen Institute of Farm Economics
November
8th 2015
Seite
1
Sugarcane production in Brazil
Agritechnica, Hannover
Datum
Balieiro, 2015
Agenda
1. What is agri benchmark?
2. Global Development of Herbicide Resistance
3. Insights into the hot spot regions
•
•
•
•
UK
Australia
Iowa
Brazil
4. Conclusion
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Herbicide Resistance – a global issue
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Who we are and what we do
1. agri benchmark is a global, non-profit network of agricultural
economists, advisors and producers.
2. We use internationally standardized methods to analyze
typical farms, their production systems and their profitability.
3. We combine our farm-level knowledge with our expertise in
international commodity markets and value chains.
4. Thereby we are want to provide scientifically consistent and
soundly based answers on strategic issues in arable farming.
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Herbicide Resistance – a global issue
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Why do we do this?
1. Understanding growers needs and constraints is the base to
improve products and services.
2. Understanding trends in global crop production allows you to
adjust strategies.
3. Understanding agronomical and economic drivers of current
production systems is the basis for innovations.
4. Understanding strengths and weaknesses of production systems
is needed for right decisions.
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Herbicide Resistance – a global issue
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Present in all major countries and crops
Crop coverage :
Corn
Soybeans
Wheat
Sugar beet
Rice
Rapeseed
Oats
Rye
(Malting) barley
Sunflower
Sorghum
Cotton
Peas
Beans
Palm oil
Sugar cane
Page 5
Countries participating in agri benchmark Cash Crop
Countries to come online 2014/15
Priorities for new partnerships
Herbicide Resistance – a global issue
de Witte, 2015
Major clients and research partners
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Herbicide Resistance – a global issue
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Agenda
1. What is agri benchmark?
2. Global Development of Herbicide Resistance
3. Insights into the hot spot regions
• UK
• Australia
• Iowa
• Brazil
4. Summary
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Herbicide Resistance – a global issue
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Count of Confirmed Resistant Biotypes (2008)
Herbicide resistance is a global problem…
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Herbicide Resistance – a global issue
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Sources:
Wrucke 2014, Heap 2008
Count of Confirmed Resistant Biotypes (2012)
… and it`s growing
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Herbicide Resistance – a global issue
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Sources:
Wrucke 2014, Heap 2008
Decreasing number of patents
• increasing regulatory risk
• longer development cycles
• increasing development cost
Source: Bayer Crop Science
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Herbicide Resistance – a global issue
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Agenda
1. What is agri benchmark?
2. Global Development of Herbicide Resistance
3. Insights into the hot spot regions
•
•
•
•
UK
Australia
Iowa
Brazil
4. Summary
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Herbicide Resistance – a global issue
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What we did
• Asked our partner to give an overview on the development of
herbicide resistance in their countries
• Asked them to create future scenarios
• Estimated the future economic impact by calculation the average
return to land (ground rent) for the scenarios on our typical farms
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Illustration of the Scenarios
• Base scenario:
Represents the status quo
• Scenario A:
Increasing herbicide resistance which can be solved with more or
other but more expensive herbicides or GM-seeds.
• Scenario B:
Available herbicides are not effective enough anymore, therefore
smaller adaptations in the rotation or tillage strategy becomes
necessary.
• Scenario C:
The issue becomes really heavy which makes significant changes in
management strategies (rotation, tillage…) necessary.
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Herbicide Resistance – a global issue
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Insights from the UK
Ben Lang
University of Cambridge
Department of Land Economy
Cambridge, United Kingdom
www.landecon.cam.ac.uk
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Herbicide Resistance – a global issue
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Main Problem Weed
• Annual Weed
• Emergence August– October
• favors moist soils with relatively
high clay content
• Some infestations >1,000 heads/m²
Black grass
Alopecurus myosuroides
Page 15
• 80 to 150 seeds per seed head
• Resistance to ACCase- and ALS- and
Photosynthesis-inhibitors (HRAC
Groups A,B,C)
Herbicide Resistance – a global issue
de Witte, 2015
UK Blackgrass incidence
• On more than 16,000 farms
• Especially on wet soils with high clay content
UK440SUFF
Rainfall: 590 mm
400 ha arable land
Wheat: 8.5 t/ha
Rapeseed: 3.45 t/ha
Beans: 3.4 t/ha
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Main resistance drivers in the UK
• Increased winter cropping
• Shorter rotations due to economic pressure
• Earlier wheat drilling
• Adoption of minimal cultivation methods
• Reduced number of approved herbicides
• Recent years have brought wet weather and a greater blackgrass
problem, but greater awareness of the problem.
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Management Options: Results from field trials
Page 18
Number of
experiments
Mean reduction
of seed reservoir
1
Ploughing
25
69%
2
Delayed autumn drilling
19
31%
3
Higher seed rates
16
26%
4
Competitive cultivars
5
22%
5
Spring cropping
5
88%
6
Fallow/grass lays
7
Combination of 1,2,3&4
70-80% per year
potential
Herbicide Resistance – a global issue
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99%
Calculated Scenarios for the 440 SUFF farm
Description
Page 19
Base
Current black grass situation
- stubble Gly,
- Premerge (Avadex)
- Mixture of pendimehtadin, flufenacet, diflufenican
- Atlantis in the spring
Scenario a
5% lower wheat yield
25% spring barley (5,8 t/ha)
+ 5% herbicide costs
Scenario b
5% lower wheat yield
25% spring barley
12% sheep
+ 5% herbicide costs
Herbicide Resistance – a global issue
de Witte, 2015
€/ha
Economic Estimation
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
40%
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
current blackgrass
conditions
return to land
25% spring barley
+5% herbicide costs
current land rents
25% spring barley
10% Sheep
+5% herbicide costs
rel. decrease of return to land
• Introduction of summer crops  reduction of 20%
• If pasture becomes necessary  reduction up to 35%
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Insights from Western Australia
Ashley Herbert
Agrarian Management
Consultant
Perth, Western Australia
[email protected]
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Main Problem Weeds in Western Australia
Wild radish
Raphanus raphanistrum
• Broadleef weed
• Multiple germinations per season
• Resistance to MoA Groups
B, C, F, I
• First Glyphosate resistance
occurred (G)
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Annual Ryegrass
Lolium rigidum
• extreme high number of seeds
• Very competitive
• Resistance to MoA Groups
A, B, C,D,K1
• Also Glyphosate resistance (G)
Distribution of herbicide resistance in Australia
AU4000WB
Low rainfall - 320mm
3,500ha arable land
80% crop, 20% pasture
Wheat 1.8t/ha
Barley 1.9 t/ha
Canola 0.8t/ha
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Herbicide Resistance – a global issue
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Main resistance drivers in Western Australia
Major change to the farming system in the mid 90’s :
1.
Significant reduction of sheep profitability
2.
Cropping technology revolution:
•
Introduction of selective pre & post emergent herbicides
•
Minimum tillage
•
Increased capacity of cropping machinery
 Which lead to:
•
An increase in cropping intensity
•
Rapid adoption & dependence on selective herbicides
•
Widespread use of below label application rates
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Management Options : Harvest Seed Weed Control
Windrow Burning
Glenvar Bale Direct System
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Herbicide Resistance – a global issue
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Chaff Cart
Harrington Seed Destructor
Effectiveness of HWSC
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Calculated Scenarios for the 4000 WB farm
Description
Page 27
Base
Knock down: 1.5l Gly + 1l Sprayseed + 118g Sakura
Early post em: 0.5 l Velocity + 0.5 l MCPA
Late post em: 0,8l Ester 0.8 + 0.3 l Jaguar
Scenario a
- Higher chemical use (+15 €/ha)
- RR canola (+40 €/ha)
Scenario b
- Higher chemical use (+15 €/ha)
- RR canola (+40 €/ha)
- Including HSWC
- Increased pasture spraying (+10 €/ha)
Scenario c
- Higher chemical use (+15 €/ha)
- Including HSWC
- Rapeseed dropped from the rotation
- 33% arable land as pasture
Herbicide Resistance – a global issue
de Witte, 2015
€/ha
Economic Estimation
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
base scenario
return to land
additional herbicides additional herbicides
GMO rapeseed
GMO rapeseed
chaff cart
current land rents
additional herbicides
chaff cart
no rapeseed
33% pasture
rel. chage of return to land
• Reduction in return to land of 20-30% seems as a realistic scenario
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Insights from Iowa
Kelvin Leibold
Iowa State University
Extension Area Farm Mgt.
Phone 641-648-4850
E-mail
[email protected]
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Herbicide Resistance – a global issue
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Main Problem Weeds in Iowa
Waterhemp
aranthus tuberculatus
• Broadleef weed
• Seed remain up to 3
years in the soil
• Resistance to ALSinhibitors and
Glyphosate
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Giant Ragweed
Ambrosia trifida
• Up to 5,000 seeds per • a winter or summer
plant
annual life cycle
• 1 plant/m² can reduce • Less competitive
corn yields by >10%
• Resistance to ALS• Resistance to ALSinhibitors and
inhibitors and
Glyphosate
Glyphosate
Herbicide Resistance – a global issue
de Witte, 2015
Horseweed
Conyza canadensis
Distribution of Glyphosate resistance in the US
US700IA
Rainfall: 890 mm
730 ha arable land
Soybean-corn rotation
soybeans: 3.3 t/ha
corn: 10.9 t/ha
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Herbicide Resistance – a global issue
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Main resistance drivers in the Midwest
• Sole reliance on glyphosate by many producers is believed to be the
primary factor – corn, cotton, soybeans
• Reduced number of herbicides used
• Less deep tillage leaving more seeds at the surface
• Move to no-till soybeans (45% vs. 25% in corn)
• Less crop rotation
• Eliminated row crop cultivation
• Earlier planting dates
• Reduced rates or combination „half rates“
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Herbicide Resistance – a global issue
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Management Options
Option
Drawbacks
Adoptionrate
MOA mixtures
and rotation
Lack of new available MOA
high
Adjusted herbicide
rates
Higher rates  higher target side selection
Lower rates  higher non target side selection
high
Primary tillage
Increased soil erosion, time, costs
medium
New HR-traits
Lack of diversity, high selection pressure
low
Cover crops
Inconsistent effect on HR-weeds, lack of knowledge,
increased water consumption?
low
Crop rotations
Low economic performance of other crops, Iowa crops
to similar to increase diversity
low
Robots
Still in development stage
NA
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Herbicide Resistance – a global issue
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Description of the scenarios
Herbicide
strategy
Herbicide
costs
Spray
trips
Operating
costs
Base
2 post emerge
glyphosate
corn: 50 €/ha
soybeans: 45 €/ha
2
corn: 400 €/ha
soybeans: 250 €/ha
Scenario a
+ residual herbicide with
first spray
corn: + 15 €/ha
soybeans: +10 €/ha
2
Scenario b
+ residual
+ pre emerge herbicide
corn: +20 €/ha
soybeans: +15 €/ha
3
+ 13 €/ha
Scenario c
+residual
+pre emerge
+row crop tillage
corn: +20 €/ha
soybeans: +15 €/ha
3
+ 40 €/ha
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Herbicide Resistance – a global issue
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Economic Estimation
-55 €/ha
600
20%
500
€/ha
400
300
10%
200
100
0
0%
base: gly
return to land
+residual
current land rents
+residual
+ pre emerge
+residual
+ pre emerge
+tillage
rel. change on return to land
• Glyphosate resistance is an increasing issue but still good to handle
• More complex management strategies might cause up 10% higher
costs
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Herbicide Resistance – a global issue
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Insights from Brazil (Parana)
Edmar Udo Klein
Fazenda Esperanza
Guarapuava, Parana
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Herbicide Resistance – a global issue
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Main glyphosate resistant weeds
Conyza sumatrensis
White horseweed
•
•
•
•
•
Annual Weed
Emergence July – September
Light seed (easily widespread)
Up to 200.000 seeds per plant
Some biotypes also resistant to
ALS
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Digitaria insularis (Sourgrass)
•
•
•
•
•
•
Perennial Weed
Rhizoms
Grows all over the year
Drought resistant
Develops in offseason
Best controlled before formation of
rhizoms
Regional Spread of Conyza spp. and D. insularis
Conyza
BR195PR
Rainfall: 1,900 mm
160 ha arable land
• 80% soybeans : 3.05 t/ha
• 20% corn: 9.4 t/ta
• 80% corn: 5.3 t/ha
• 20% winter wheat: 2.5 t/ha
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Herbicide Resistance – a global issue
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Digitaria insularis
Main resistance drivers in Parana
• Limited Crop rotation: Soybeans as main Crop
• Soybeans: >90% Roundup Ready
• No-till System -> highly herbicide dependent to manage weeds
• Massive usage of glyphosate -> high selective pressure
• Some carelessness
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Herbicide Resistance – a global issue
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Management Options
Current practices:
• Higher spraying rates
• Association of Herbicides: tank mixtures (!!)
• Sequential spraying of Herbicides
In Discussion:
• Interseason management 30-40 days after soybeans
• Prevent weed development/ seed spreading
• Intercrop weed control
• Systemic herbicides / Residual herbicides
• Brachiaria as a cover crop after corn
• Increase tillage
• Hope to chemical solutions
• GM-traits: Liberty Link; DOW Enlist: Glyp. + 2,4-D + AG
• Herbicides: Saflufenafil (HRAC Group E)
• Older products: Extension of register
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Herbicide Resistance – a global issue
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Description of the scenarios
Scenario
Herbicide
strategy
Herbicide
costs
Operating
costs
Base
Gly + 2,4-D fob contact herbicide
soybeans:
31 €/ha
soybeans:
285 €/ha
a
+ graminicide
+ preemergent residual
+87 €/ha
b
+ intercrop management:
Gly + 2,4-D + preemergent residual
+ graminicide
+ preemergent residual
+115 €/ha
+ 5 €/ha
c
Deep tillage+ disk harrow
+ graminicide
+90 €/ha
+ 80 €/ha
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Herbicide Resistance – a global issue
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€/ha
Economic estimation
500
50%
400
40%
300
30%
200
20%
100
10%
0
0%
base: Gly+2,4-D + graminicide + graminicide
tillage
fb contact
+ preemergence+ preemergence
+chem.
+intercrop
regrowth cont.
return to land
current land rent
rel. decrease of return to land
• A decrease in return to land of 20-30% seems as an realistic scenario
• Tillage was seen as an extreme scenario!
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Herbicide Resistance – a global issue
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Conclusion
• Herbicide is a severe issue and not limited to singular events
• Strong increase in RR-systems; but still relatively easy to handle
• Pre emergence residual and selective herbicides available
• High cost increase in BR (+20-30 %) vs. moderate increase in the
Midwest (5%)
• Tillage is always seen as the last solution
• More complex and expensive in wheat
• Less options for alternative herbicides
• Decrease in return to land of 20-30%
• Adopted rotations  decrease in return to land up to 30% (UK)
and 50 % (AUS)
• Plant protection strategies will become more complex
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Thank you for your interest in agri benchmark.
Dr. Thomas de Witte
Thünen Institute of Farm Economics
Bundesallee 50, 38116 Braunschweig
Germany
phone
e-mail
internet
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Herbicide Resistance – a global issue
de Witte, 2015
+49 - 531-596-5122
[email protected]
www.agribenchmark.org
www.ti.bund.de
Higher costs and increased registration risk
• increasing regulatory risk
• Increasing development cost
• Decreasing number of active substances
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Herbicide Resistance – a global issue
de Witte, 2015
USD/ha
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
past base a
b base a
UK
b
c
AUS
base a
b
•
•
•
base a
Midwest
rapeseed wheat
return to land
c
b
c
Brazil
soybeans corn
current land rents
Just moderate economic implications in the Midwest if tools work
BR lost in return to land > 20% very likely
In wheat dominated systems 20 to 40% reduction of return to land
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Herbicide Resistance – a global issue
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Conclusions
•
Herbicide is a severe issue and not limited to singular events
•
Strong increase in GR-systems; but still relatively easy to handle
• Pre emergence residual and selective herbicides available
• High cost increase in BR vs. moderate increase in the Midwest
• Options for combinations with tillage
•
More complex and expensive in wheat
• Less options for alternative herbicides
• adopted rotations  decrease in return to land of 20-30 %
Big differences between single farms depending on management
practices
•
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Herbicide Resistance – a global issue
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Conclusions
• UK
• As our illustration shows, some farmers are making major changes to
secure future profitable wheat production
Page 48
Herbicide Resistance – a global issue
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Conclusions for Western Australia
1.
Resistance is inevitable when there is dependence on selective herbicides.
1.
Below label rates is a false economy
2.
Weed control becomes more expensive and complex.
3.
Maintaining a low weed seed bank is essential to prolonging the
effectiveness of existing herbicides.
4.
Adoption of HWSC methods significantly improves weed control.
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Herbicide Resistance – a global issue
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Conclusion Iowa
• Herbicide resistance is an increasing issue in the Midwest
 more than 50% of the fields have multiple resistance
 potential risk to 30% yield losses (> 500 $/ha)
 BUT: good options to minimize it
• Much more awareness to the issue since 2010
 increased research and training
 http://takeactiononweeds.com/
• Back to more complex management systems
 spraying and tillage
• Additional costs might reduce the return to land up to 70 USD/ha
• New HR-traits (liberty link, 2,4-D) might result into old behavior
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Herbicide Resistance – a global issue
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Agenda
1. What is agri benchmark?
2. Herbicide resistance as a global issue
3. Introduction to the Survey
4. Results from
UK
Australia
Iowa
Brazil
5. Summary
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Summary
I.
agri benchmark has proved to be a suitable platform to analyze
production systems and costs for sugarcane worldwide
II.
The major sugar exporting countries are already represented in our
database – aiming to include others like India, Columbia, etc.
III. These are only raw material costs – IMPORTANT to include
industrial costs (i.e. major difference in factory utilization, energy
balance, etc.)
IV. agri benchmark data can also be used to analyze how policies,
market changes and gov. programs might affect farm level
competiveness and triggers changes in the world markets.
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Economic implications on typical farm
Base scenario:
• Glyphosate + 2,4-D followed by contact herbicide
Scenario A:
• Glyphosate + 2,4-D followed by contact herbicide
• + graminicide + preemergent residual
Scenario B:
• + intercrop management: Glyphosate + 2,4-D + residual preemergent
• Glyphosate + 2,4-D followed by contact herbicide
• graminicide + preemergent residual
Scenario c:
• Deep tillage+ disk harrow
• Gliphosate + 2,4-D + graminicide followed by contact
• Tillage only if strictly necessary!
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Herbicide Resistance – a global issue
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UK: Case study farm: grassweed herbicide costs
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UK: Case study farm: Cropping
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Herbicide Resistance – a global issue
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Herbicide market 2011 per crop and mode of action
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Herbicide Resistance – a global issue
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1995
Knockdown
Early post em
Gly 0.8 + Logran 35g
MCPA 0.5 L+Logran 5g + Ally 5g
2000 - 03 Gly 1.2 - 1.5L + Logran 35g
+ Trifluralin 1.0 - 1.2L
MCPA 0.5L + Logran 5g + Ally 5g
Late post em
Cost ($/ha)
$24 - $30
Ester 400mL
$37 - $41
2005 - 08 Gly 1.2 - 1.5L + Trifluralin 1.5 - 1.8L MCPA 0.5 L + Jaguar 0.3L
Ester 0.6L + Logran 10g
$40 - $45
2013 - 15 Gly 1.2 - 1.5L
Sprayseed 1.0L + Sakura 118g
Ester 0.8L + Jaguar 300mL
Velocity 0.5L + MCPA 0.5L
Herbicide Resistance – a global issue
de Witte, 2015
$90
Current practices and coming strategies
Higher spraying rates
Association of Herbicides: tank mixtures (!!)
Sequential spraying of Herbicides
Season
Pre planting
Post
Post
emergence 1 emergence 2
Total
Glyphosate
2011/12
2,2 l Glyp.
2 l Glyp.
5,4 l
2012/13
2013/14
Future
3 l Glyp.
+ 1 l 2,4-D
3 l Glyp.
+ 1 l 2,4-D
fb 2 l Paraquat
??
2 l Glyp.
5l
2 l Glyp.
2 l Glyp.
7l
??
??
??
Herbicide Resistance – a global issue
de Witte, 2015
1,2 l Glyp.
Source: adopted Cepea, 2014