ABSTRACT
The Geography of the 1992
U.S. Presidential Debates
Cynthia L. Sutherland
Graduate Student
Gerald R. Webster
Professor
Due to the United States' reliance
upon the electoral college, its presidential elections are intrinsically geographic
events. In their campaigns successful
candidates must address issues of varying pertinence in different places and at
different geographic scales. The three
1992 presidential debates provide an opportunity to consider the relative geographic emphases of the three presidential candidates based on their references
to geographic places.
This paper uses the verbatim dialogue of the 1992 presidential debates to
extract place name references by each
of the three candidates. Chi-square tests
are applied to the relative use of foreign
and domestic place names by the three
candidates to determine if the differences in their geographic emphases are
statistically significant. Cognitive maps
of their domestic and foreign place references are also produced. The results
reveal that while all three candidates
stressed domestic places over foreign
places, Bill Clinton's emphasis on domestic locations was greatest.
presidential debates, place
names,
cognitive
maps,
political
geography.
KEY WORDS :
INTRODUCTION
Department of Geography
University of Alabama
Tuscaloosa, Alabama 35487
The 1992 presidential campaign renewed public interest in political issues
in the United States. The voter apathy
characterizing recent presidential contests was reduced and voter participation increased to a 20-year high of 55
percent nationally (USA Today Research, 1992). The election also suggested a substantial level of voter anger
directed at politicians in general, and
President George Bush in particular
(Goldman and Mathews 1992, p. 23).
Bush received only 38 percent of the
popular vote, the lowest level of support
for an incumbent chief executive since
Howard Taft lost the three-way election
of 1912 with 23 percent of the ballots
cast. Ross Perot's 19 percent of the vote
was the largest proportion of support for
a third party candidate since Teddy Roosevelt's Bull Moose Party garnered 27
83
percent, also in the presidential contest
of 1912 (Turque, 1992).
Presidential elections in the United
States are intrinsically geographic events
due to the design of the electoral col lege. To be allocated a state's electoral
votes, a successful candidate must win
the largest share of the popular vote in
that state. Thus, national campaigns are
frequently made locally pertinent by em phasizing different issues (or different
aspects of the same issue) in different
places. While some issues were more
important in some regions than others,
the condition of the U.S. economy in 1992
made it the dominant concern in nearly
every corner of the country (Barrett,
1992b).
Popular wisdom has held that Bill
Clinton 's 1992 success was due largely
to his focus on domestic issues, most
notably the economy. In contrast, George
Bush's loss has been partially attributed
to his attention to foreign policy, an issue judged crucial by only one in five
voters in a Newsweek poll (Fineman,
1992d, p. 10). The topical and place em phases of the candidates in the three
1992 presidential debates provides an
opportunity to consider the veracity of
these common assertions.
The purpose of this paper is to ascerta in if Bill Clinton did indeed stress
domestic over foreign issues and places,
and if the reverse is true of George Bush.
While the basis for predicting Ross Perot's domestic versus foreign emphasis
is less clear, it seems probable that his
place references would stress the former due to his focus on the U.S. econ omy. This investigation uses the verbatim dialogue of the 1992 presidential
debates to extract geographic place
names and references by each of the
t hree candidates . Places references are
class ified by geographical setting including a domestic versus foreign dichotomy. These classifications are then
used to determine the geographic em phasis of each cand idate.
POLITICAL CAMPAIGN DEBATES
The 1858 political debates between
Abraham Lincoln and Stephen Douglas
have been called the last " real debates"
84
(Trent and Friedenberg, 1991 , p. 207) .
This observation is due to formal definitions of debates. Auer (1962, p. 146),
for instance, states that a debate "is (1)
a confrontation , (2) in equal and adequate time, (3) of matched contestants,
(4) on a stated proposition, (5) to gain
an audience decision." These five requirements are rarely met in contem porary political debates, particularly
presidential debates. Rather, political
debates have become media events
which provide the voting public an opportunity to consider the factual preparation and polished television images
projected by the candidates.
Political debate structures and formats in the United States have also
changed significantly. The media's entrance into the political debate arena
brought about many of these changes.
In 1960, the televised Kennedy-Nixon
debates met only one of Auer's five
components : the candidates were closely
matched. But, instead of confronting each
other, they faced the media. Second, they
did not focus on a single stated proposition, but rather considered a number
of different topics in each debate. Third,
given the large number of topics consid ered, there was inadequate time allocated to each topic. Finally, the 1960 debates did not provide for an audience
decision.
It is notable that the 1960 and 1992
presidential debates are similar in terms
of the questions asked, and the issues
addressed . For example, Trent and Friedenberg (1991, p. 205) state that in 1960,
Kennedy and Nixon were asked questions on a number of diverse topics
including
who was most fit and prepared to lead
the country, ... what policies each
would advocate for reducing the fed eral debt, what each man would do
about improving the nation's schools,
and what policies each (would) pursue with respect to medical aid to the
aged .
Similar questions on these same issues were also present in the 1992 debates. In Debate I (Decision '92, 1992, p.
1) the first question posed was "what
separates each of you from the other?"
The first question in Debate III (Debate
Lansing, 1992, p. 1) was directed at Bill
Clinton and asked how he would fund
his programs to create jobs, reform the
health care system, rebuild the nation's
infrastructure and guarantee a college
education for everyone while reducing
the federal budget deficit. Finally, it is
notable that Clinton 's theme 6f change
for a better America echoed Kennedy's
thesis "that the United States could do
better" (Trent and Friedenberg, 1991, p.
225).
PLACE NAMES AND POLITICAL
GEOGRAPHY
Place names are important elements
of the political landscape (Cohen and
Kliot, 1992, p. 655). While they are simplistically symbols denoting different locations, they may also create positive or
negative images about places. For example, the Dead Sea and Death Valley
may carry negative connotations while
Paradise Beach and Silver Springs may
evoke more positive images. Other place
names carry popular images due to their
association with historical events (e.g.,
Gettysburg), or due to their portrayal in
literature, movies and television (e.g.,
"Dallas" ). In short, the images associated with New York City, Miami, Detroit
and Selma, Alabama differ radically.
Bill Clinton 's campaign took advantage of place name imagery by referring
to the Governor as "the man from Hope,"
an allusion to Hope, Arkansas, his place
of birth (Kertzer, 1993). President Bush's
campaign may have suffered due to his
reference to Arkansas as "the lowest of
the low" and because some interpreted
his negative reference as indicative of his
evaluation of the South as a whole
(Rawls, 1992). These two examples suggest that a candidate's use of place references can be important in attracting or
repelling voters. Arguably, even the
mention of a place in a sympathetic context can lead voters in that location to
conclude that the candidate is aware of
them and is considerate of their views
and needs. Thus, the use of place names
may be a deliberate effort by a candi-
date to connect with a spatially disparate electorate.
Several studies have discussed the
role that place names play in forming
cognitive maps of the world (e.g.,
O'Loughlin and Grant, 1990; Cohen and
Kliot, 1992; Hartman and Vogeler, 1993).
As defined by O'Loughlin and Grant
(1990, p. 506), a cognitive map is
an ordered but continually adapting
structure of the mind, is conceivable
as a process, by reference to which a
person acquires, codes, stores, recalls, reorganizes and applies in
thought or in action, information about
his/ her geographical environment.
Cognitive maps develop from direct
experience and from such secondary
sources as conversations, musical lyrics,
books, magazines, billboards and any
number of additional external stimuli
(Goodey, 1969; O'Loughlin and Grant,
1990, p. 506) . It has been suggested that
teachers can use real world events and
news to help students form mental maps
and sharpen geography skills. For example, one study examines travel by U.S.
Secretaries of State to evaluate one form
of spatial interaction between the U.S.
and foreign places (Hartman and Vogeler, 1993). Another study by O'Loughlin
and Grant (1990, p. 526) compares the
presidential State of the Union addresses after World War II to produce "an
accurate reflection of the geopolitical
perspective and political agenda of the
President at the time of the speech ."
THE 1992 PRESIDENTIAL DEBATES
The Bi-partisan Commission on Presidential Debates attempted for several
months to organize debates between the
three primary 1992 presidential candidates. George Bush, not satisfied with
the suggested single-moderator format,
repeatedly refused. Due likely to trailing
support in the polls, the Bush campaign
eventually agreed to participate in three
90-minute debates. Both major parties
also agreed to include independent candidate Ross Perot (Associated Press,
1992).
In the week before the debates Perot
85
launched his media intensive campaign,
focusing on the economy with his " patented flip-chart lectures" (Fineman,
1992a). The Republicans launched an assault on Clinton's patriotism, criticizing
his participation in overseas anti-Vietnam war demonstrations (Fineman,
1992b). Being the front-runner and having the most to lose, the Clinton camp
limited its media exposure. A Newsweek
poll taken just prior to the first deb-ate in
mid-October reported Clinton leading
with 44 percent, followed by Bush with
36 percent, and Perot trailing with 14
percent (Fineman, 1992a, 27). Many in
the GOP felt that the debates were Bush's
"big chance to shake up the race, cast
more doubt on Clinton and convince
voters the Republicans have workable
ideas for reviving the economy" (Detroit
News Wire Reports, 1992, 12a). Howard
Fineman (1992a, p. 27) of Newsweek described the debates as "Bush's last
chance, Clinton's last hurdle, and Perot's
only hope."
A sound debate strategy usually begins with the development of a central
theme that is reinforced by the debater
through his or her answers (Trent and
Friedenberg, 1991, pp. 222-227). All three
candidates attempted to develop their
own debate themes. Perot projected
himself as the independent servant of the
people and the candidate not associated
with any political party or foreign interest group. Bush's debate thesis emphasized his experience, particularly in foreign affairs (Fineman 1992b). Clinton
promised change, but more important his
emphasis on the economy and domestic
problems seemingly connected with the
many voters who were frustrated with
"a White House that is increasingly perceived as out of touch and isolated from
the American people" (Muskegon
Chronicle, 1992).
METHODOLOGY
Geographical place names and words
denoting places (e.g., "country") were
extracted from each of the three debates. These place references were classified by scale (e.g., continent, country,
city) and whether they referred to domestic locations (e.g., United States, Ar86
kansas, St. Louis), foreign locations (Europe, Mexico, Moscow), or general
geographic concepts (e.g., world, country, state) . The totals of domestic and
foreign place name references by debate and candidate were examined with
Chi-square tests to determine if the contrasts in usage by the candidates were
statistically significant. Because the
questions posed to the candidates in each
debate undoubtably directed or limited
their use of place name references, a
somewhat relaxed significance criterion
of 0.10 was employed to judge contrasts. Secondly, all references by each
candidate to specific places, whether domestic and foreign, were mapped using
graduated circles proportionate to the
number of times the location was mentioned during the three debates.
DEBATE I
The first debate took place in St. Louis,
Missouri on Sunday, October 11, 1992
(Decision '92, 1992). PBS's Jim Lehrer
moderated the debate with a panel of
three journalists asking questions. Among
the topics highlighted were U.S. forces
in Europe, the budget deficit, world hunger and the war in Bosnia. Many polls
after the debate suggested that Perot had
won. Newsweek (Fineman, 1992b, p. 20),
for example, found that among those
polled 43 percent thought Perot had won,
31 percent judged Clinton the winner, and
only 19 percent thought Bush had prevailed. By far the biggest boost in the
polls went to Ross Perot with half of
those polled responding that they were
more likely to cast their votes for him as
a result of the debate. The biggest loser
in this regard was President Bush with
55 percent of those polled responding
that they were less likely to support him
on election day due to his debate performance (Fineman, 1992b, p. 20).
Debate I included a total of 254 geographic references, 189 (74%) of which
were to specific domestic or foreign locations (Table 1). As expected, Bush
made the largest number of references-25-to foreign locations. Clinton
made 21 references to foreign places,
with Ross Perot making the least foreign
references with 18. Also as expected,
TABLE 1
Domestic, Foreign and General Place Name References by Debate and
Candidate
Candidate
Debate
Debate
Debate
No. 1
No. 2
No. 3
Total
30
25
23
78
39
10
12
61
33
7
15
55
102
42
50
194
61
21
15
97
35
7
27
69
38
8
8
54
134
36
50
220
34
18
27
79
21
10
12
43
42
10
18
70
97
38
57
192
125
64
65
254
95
27
51
173
113
25
41
179
333
116
157
606
Bush
Domestic
Foreign
General
TOTAL
Clinton
Domestic
Foreign
General
TOTAL
Perot
Domestic
Foreign
General
TOTAL
All Candidates
Domestic
Foreign
General
TOTAL
SOURCE : Compiled by authors.
Clinton accounted for nearly half (61) of
all references to domestic locations (125).
Perot came in second with 34, with Bush
third referencing slightly less that half of
Clinton's domestic location total at 30.
A six cell Chi-square test was performed on the number of domestic versus foreign geographic references made
by the three candidates. It confirmed that
at the 0.06 level of confidence there was
a statistical difference in the use of domestic versus foreign place names by the
three candidates. Most contributing to the
test's significance was Clinton's heavy
use of domestic place names. A parallel
test examining only Bush and Clinton
produced an even more statistically significant (0.02) difference in their respective use of domestic and foreign place
names.
DEBATE II
Debate II was held at the University
of Richmond (Virginia), on October 15,
1992, with Carole Simpson of ABC News
serving as the moderator (Debate Richmond, 1992). In her opening statement
Ms. Simpson stated that "tonight's program is unlike any other presidential debate in history," a reference to the format Clinton had chosen which involved
an audience of over 200 uncommitted
voters selected to ask questions. No
subject was restricted, and the moderator controlled how much time each candidate was allowed for an answer. Topics covered in this debate included the
global market, the deficit, urban crime,
term limits and health care . Polls after
the debate generally found that Clinton
won, followed by Bush and Perot, respectively. In CBS's poll, for example,
Clinton was pronounced the winner by
53 percent, Bush by 25 percent and Perot
by 21 percent (May and Malone, 1992).
In the second debate there were a total of 173 geographic references, 122
(70%) of which were to specific foreign
87
and domestic places (Table 1). Among
the most notable findings was a 35 percent decline in specific place references,
with the decline being greatest for Clin ton (- 49%). Second, there was a substantial decrease in Bush's reference to
foreign locations (- 60%) and increase in
his reference to domestic locations
(+ 30%). Why the shift? Perhaps the Bush
campa ign staff realized the domestic
versus foreign place contrast in r:>ebate
I and suggested he increase his domestic emphasis. Third, while Bill Clinton 's
total number of specific place references
fell, he continued to favor domestic references over foreign references at greater
than a five to one margin. Finally, in
contrast to Debate I, Chi-square tests
found no statistically significant difference at the 0.10 level of confidence in
the emphasis given to domestic versus
foreign locations when considering all
three candidates, or only Bush versus
Clinton.
DEBATE III
Debate III was held in East Lansing,
Michigan on October 19,1992, with PBS's
Jim Lehrer again acting as the moderator (Debate Lansing, 1992). Lehrer asked
questions during the first half of the debate with a panel of three journalists
asking the questions during the second
half. Topics for Debate III included improving the job base, health care reform , rebuilding the nation's infrastructure, education reform and minority
representation in government. Arguably,
the central topic of the Debate III was the
domestic economy (Nelson and Lauter,
1992). Most polls after the debate again
found Clinton winning , with Perot second, and Bush third . An ABC poll, for
example, found that 37 percent thought
Clinton won, 25 percent judged Perot the
victor, 19 percent thought Bush won, and
11 percent concluded the debate was a
tie (Benson and Shanahan, 1992).
In Debate III there were a total of 179
geographic references, 138 (77%) of
which were to specific locations (Table
1). Perot had the greatest total number
of specific geographic references with 52,
followed by Clinton at 46, and Bush with
40. Bush again showed a decline in his
88
references to foreign locations with only
seven (- 30%). and there was nearly a
five to one margin between his domestic (33) and foreign references (7). Clinton also continued to favor domestic
place references (38) at nearly a five to
one margin over foreign locations (8) .
Perot's domestic references doubled in
Debate III when compared to Debate II,
while his number of foreign references
remained the same. A Chi-square test of
domestic and foreign place references
found no statistical difference between
the geographic emphases of the three
candidates at the 0.10 level of confidence. The parallel text considering only
Bush and Clinton also found no statistical difference between their respective
use of foreign and domestic place names.
DISCUSSION
During the three debates there were
a total of 606 geographic references
made by the three candidates. Of this
sum 449 (74%) references were to specific foreig n (116, 26%) or domestic locations (333, 74%) (Table 1). Clinton accounted for the largest number of specific
references with 170, and the greatest
number of domestic references with 134.
Bush mentioned specific places 144 times
and had the greatest number of references to foreign locations with a total of
42. Perot's number of domestic references was 97, with his foreign references totaling 38. A Chi-square test re vealed a statistically significant difference
at the 0.06 level of confidence between
Bush and Clinton's foreign and domestic
references for all three debates. However, there was no statistical significance at the 0.10 level when all three
candidates were considered.
Data were also collected on non-specific or general geographic references
(Table 2). Words that fall in this category
include : " country," "global," "foreign,"
"overseas," and "international." This
study found that Perot was the most generic in his mentioning of places with a
total of 57 references falling in the general category. But both Bush and Clinton
were not far behind with each tallying
50 general geographic references during
the three debates.
TABLE 2
General Place Name References by Debate and Candidate
Candidate /Reference
Bush
world
foreign
country
global
states
domestic
international
overseas
TOTAL
Clinton
world
foreign
country
state
nation
overseas
earth
TOTAL
Perot
world
foreign
international
overseas
country
nation
state
national
global
intercontinental
TOTAL
GRAND TOTAL
Debate
No. 1
14
6
1
0
0
2
0
0
23
Debate
No. 2
6
Debate
No.3
Total
23
12
5
3
3
2
1
12
3
5
3
2
2
0
0
0
15
1
50
10
2
0
0
3
0
0
15
6
4
7
5
1
3
1
27
1
2
1
3
1
0
0
8
17
8
8
8
5
3
1
50
15
3
3
2
2
0
0
1
1
0
27
0
3
2
3
0
2
1
0
0
1
12
7
8
0
0
2
0
1
0
0
0
18
22
14
5
5
4
2
2
65
51
41
157
0
57
Source : Compiled by authors.
CARTOGRAPHIC RESULTS
The three debates provided an opportunity to create cognitive maps which
arguably reflect each candidate's geographic emphasis (Figs. 1, 2 and 3). The
varying circle sizes on the debate maps
represent the frequency of location references. The largest circles represent
specific places mentioned many times.
Areas on the maps with high densities
of merging circles indicate several places
relatively close to one another were
mentioned by the candidate.
Ross Perot's geographic emphasis
during the three debates was on the U.S.,
cities in Texas, and Washington D.C.he mentioned the latter 15 times (Fig . 1).
His foreign emphasis was greatest on
Russia and Germany. George Bush's
geographic references during the three
debates were more dispersed across the
world map than either Perot's or Clinton's (Fig. 2). His map shows significant
reference to both Europe and Kuwait,
while Arkansas was his most frequently
mentioned domestic place with 12 ref-
89
o
)
REFERENCES
o
1- 2
o
3- 4
o
5-10
o
o
11 -15
16 or more
FIGURE 1. Perot's place name references.
erences. Clinton's reference map indicates a domestic place name emphasis
on Arkansas and Washington D.C.-he
mentioned Arkansas 18 times (Fig. 3). His
foreign emphasis mirrors Bush's to some
degree but with the exception that he
failed to mention any locations in South
America . China was his most frequently
mentioned foreign place with six
references.
CONCLUSIONS
This analysis cannot confirm that the
three candidates purposefully used specific geographic place names in a tactical manner. But the results are mildly
suggestive of such an intent, particularly
in Debate I where Clinton 's use of do-
90
mestic place names was substantially
greater than their usage by either Bush
or Perot. In contrast, Bush did stress foreign locations to a somewhat greater
degree than either Clinton or Perot in total, with most of his foreign references
made in Debate I. While Clinton's emphasis on domestic locations continued
throughout the three debates, Bush's
relative focus on foreign locations in Debate I changed dramatically in Debates
II and III, with substantially increased
emphasis on domestic locations. This
might have been in reaction to voter
evaluations that his Debate I comments
did not pay sufficient attention to the
domestic agenda. Perot's geographic
emphasis is less clear, except to suggest
~.
o
)
REFERENCES
o
1- 2
o
3- 4
o
5-10
o
o
11 -15
16 or more
FIGURE 2. Bush's place name references.
he focused on the domestic agenda and
was somewhat more general in his geographic references than either Bush or
Clinton.
Clinton was leading in the polls before the debates and he was still ahead
after the debates. A comparison of
Newsweek's poll numbers for the three
candidates immediately before and after
the debates indicates that Bush fell by
six percent, Clinton fell by two percent,
and Perot gained eight percent (Fineman, 1992a; Fineman, 1992c). Thus, while
Clinton's lead over Bush was eight percentage points in early October, it had
increased to 12 percentage points by
October 23, 1992. It is therefore safe to
suggest that the debates had little dra-
matic impact on the outcome of the
election . Underscoring this assertion is a
poll conducted by Time magazine which
reported that "two-thirds of respondents
said the debates had no effect on their
preference" (Barrett, 1992a, p. 26).
Arguably, the 1992 presidential race
was not close enough prior to the debates for them to had a substantial impact unless Bill Clinton made a major
gaffe. Polls after Debate III made it clear
that George Bush had failed to convince
the electorate that he could fix the economy, certainly the number one issue of
concern to the electorate (New York
Times, 1992). His last statements in Debate III instead, focused on foreign affairs (Debate Lansing, 1992, p. 28):
91
~.
C)..
, ~r
' ~~':~'"
w '"
o
)
REFERENCES
o
1- 2
o
3-4
o
5-10
o
o
11 -15
16 or more
FIGURE 3. Clinton 's place name references .
On foreign affairs, some think it's irrelevant. I believe it's not. We're living in an interconnected world. The
whole world is having econom ic difficulties .. . , and if a crisis comes up,
I ask who has the judgment and the
experience, and yes, the character to
make the right decision . .. , [and] who
will safeguard this nation?
In contrast w ith President Bush, Bill
Cl inton's closing statement in Debate III
focused again on the domestic agenda
and change (Debate Lansing, 1992, p. 28) :
I offer a new approach . It's not trickledown econom ics . It's been tried for
12 yea rs and it's failed. More people
92
are working harder for less, 100,000
people a month are losing their health
insurance, unemployment is going up,
our economy slowing down. We can
do better.
These excerpts underscore the conclusions of the present study-when all
three debates are considered Bill Clin ton's emphasis on the domestic agenda
was greater than President Bush 's,
though the contrast in focus was not as
large as expected. Given that Ross Perot's emphasis was more similar to Bill
Clinton's, his significant gains in the polls
as a result of the debates were surely and
disproportionately at Bush's expense. For
instance, a New York Times / CBS poll
(New York Times, 1992) asking who won
the three debates found 39 percent said
Clinton had, 31 responded that Perot had,
and only 15 percent felt Bush had been
successful. It is arguable if a different
GOP approach in the debates could have
altered the outcome of the election. But
in evaluating the Republican Party's
strategy, their inclusion of Perot in the
debates and their campaign's lesser association with the domestic agenda must
surely be identified as factors contributing to their poor showing on election
day.
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
The authors would like to thank James
Marshall for his efforts in securing the
texts of Debates II and III, and Edward
Haven for his help in accumulating press
reports on the debates.
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Benson, M. and Shanahan, M. 1992. " Bush's
Strong Performance May Not Be Enough ."
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Debate Lansing, Michigan. 1992. Federal Information Systems Corporation. Federal
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Detroit News Wire Reports. 1992. "Clinton,
Bush Rehearse; Poll Results Stable. " Detroit News October 11 : 12A.
Fineman, H. 1992a. "Mixing It Up-Again."
Newsweek October 12 : 26-29.
Fineman, H. 1992b. "Face to Face to Face."
Newsweek October 19: 20-23.
Fineman, H. 1992c. "Running Scared ." Newsweek November 2: 47-48.
Fineman, H. 1992d. "The Torch Passes."
Newsweek, special issue, November / December : 4-10.
Goldman, P. , and Mathews, T. 1992. " America Changes the Guard." Newsweek, special issue, November/ December: 20-23.
Goodey, B. 1969. " Messages in Space : Some
Observations on Geography and Communications." North Dakota Quarterly 37(2) :
34-49.
Hartman, J . and I. Vogeler. 1993. "Where in
the World is the U.S. Secretary of State?"
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Kertzer, D. 1993. " Symbols Shape Our Political Opinions." Tuscaloosa News February
21: lC.
May, A. L., and Malone. J. 1992. "Bush Entering the Last Debate Monday Looking Like
a Loser." Tuscaloosa News October 17 : 3A.
Muskegon Chronicle. 1992. " As We See It:
President Bush Blew His Lead Long Before
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