(.2120,&.e52=+ď$'< – ECONOMIC REVIEW
VOLUME 45., 2/2016
%(+$9,285$/$63(&76$))(&7,1*7+(
385&+$6(2),1685$1&(±',))(5(17
%(+$9,2852)0(1$1':20(11
021,.$-85.29,ý29È
%HKDYLRXUiOQHDVSHNW\RYSO\YĖXM~FHQiNXSSRLVWHQLD±
UR]GLHO\ PHG]LVSUiYDQtPPXåRYDåLHQ
$EVWUDFW 7KH UHDOLW\ RI LQVXUDQFH PDUNHWV VKRZV WKDW WKH LQFHQWLYH WR
SXUFKDVHLQVXUDQFHLVQRWEDVHGRQO\RQULVNDYHUVLRQWKHVL]HRISRWHQWLDOORVV
SUREDELOLW\RIORVVWKHSULFHRILQVXUDQFHFRYHUDJHDQGEXGJHWUHVWULFWLRQV
,QIDFWLQGLYLGXDOVDUHDOVRLQÀXHQFHGE\FRJQLWLYHDQGHPRWLRQDOSURFHVVHV
DQGKHXULVWLFVWKDWUHVXOWLQGHYLDWLRQVIURPUDWLRQDOLW\7KHDLPRIWKHSDSHU
LVWRGLVFXVVVSHFL¿FH[DPSOHVRIEHKDYLRXUWKDWGRQRWDGKHUHWRWUDGLWLRQDO
HFRQRPLFWKHRU\PRGHOVIRUH[DPSOHSXUFKDVHLQVXUDQFHDIWHUWKHRFFXUUHQFH
RI LQVXUHG HYHQW H[FHVVLYH RSWLPLVP RU D UHOLDQFH RQ VWDWH DLG 7KH SDSHU
VKRZVVHYHUDOIDFWRUVWKDWDIIHFWSHRSOHZKHQWKH\GHFLGHDERXWWKHSXUFKDVH
RI LQVXUDQFH FRYHUDJH IRU LQVWDQFH SHUVRQDO UHODWLRQVKLS WR WKH REMHFW RI
LQVXUDQFH DGYLFH IURP IULHQGV DQG DFTXDLQWDQFHV HPRWLRQDO GLVWUHVV HWF
6SHFLDODWWHQWLRQLVSDLGWRGLVWLQFWLRQVEHWZHHQPHQDQGZRPHQLQWKLVDUHD
DQGHYDOXDWLRQRIWKHJHQGHUJDSLVGRQHZLWKWKHDLGRIDTXHVWLRQQDLUHRQD
VDPSOHRIUHVSRQGHQWV
.H\ZRUGV EHKDYLRXUDO HFRQRPLFV LQVXUDQFH GHPDQG KHXULVWLFV GHPDQG
anomalies
-(/&ODVVL¿FDWLRQ*'
7KHSDSHULVWKHRXWSXWRI9(*$SURMHFW 1RRQ³(NRQRPLFNp
DVSRORþHQVNpV~YLVORVWLLQIRUPDþQHMQHURYQRYiK\QDSRLVWQRPWUKX´³(FRQRPLFDQG
VRFLDODVSHFWVRIWKHLQIRUPDWLRQDV\PPHWU\LQWKHLQVXUDQFHPDUNHW´'HSDUWPHQWRI
,QVXUDQFH8QLYHUVLW\RI(FRQRPLFVLQ%UDWLVODYD
,QJ0RQLND-XUNRYLþRYi(NRQRPLFNiXQLYHU]LWDY%UDWLVODYH.DWHGUDSRLVĢRYQtFWYD
1iURGRKRVSRGiUVNDIDNXOWD'ROQR]HPVNiE%UDWLVODYDHPDLOPRQLNDMXUNRYL
FRYD#HXEDVN
(.2120,&.e52=+ď$'< – ECONOMIC REVIEW
VOLUME 45., 2/2016
,QWURGXFWLRQ
,QVXUDQFH LV D PDMRU PHWKRG IRU KDQGOLQJ ¿QDQFLDO ULVN$FFRUGLQJ WR
WKH )LQDQFLDO 7LPHV /H[LFRQ DQ LQVXUDQFH PDUNHW LV VLPSO\ ³WKH EX\LQJ
DQG VHOOLQJ RI LQVXUDQFH´ 3URFHVVHV WDNLQJ SODFH LQ WKLV PDUNHW DUH YHU\
FRPSOH[ DQG WKH EHKDYLRXU RI SDUWLFLSDQWV LQ WKH LQVXUDQFH PDUNHW LV
GHVFULEHG E\ VHYHUDO HFRQRPLF PRGHOV ,QVXUDQFH LV D FRQWUDFW LQ ZKLFK
WKHLQVXUHGDQLQGLYLGXDORUHQWLW\UHFHLYHV¿QDQFLDOSURWHFWLRQIURPWKH
LQVXUHUDQLQVXUDQFHFRPSDQ\,WLVDWUDQVIHURIULVNIURPWKHLQGLYLGXDO
WRWKHLQVXUDQFHFRPSDQ\,QGLYLGXDOVDUHEHWWHURIISD\LQJUHODWLYHO\VPDOO
LQVXUDQFH SUHPLXP DPRXQWV WKDQ ULVNLQJ D ODUJH ORVV ,Q WKH LQVXUDQFH
PDUNHW DJHQWV IDFH GLIIHUHQW OHYHOV RI SRWHQWLDO ULVN DQG KDYH SULYDWH
LQIRUPDWLRQDERXWWKHLURZQULVN,IWKHULVNOHYHOVGLIIHUGXHWRGLIIHUHQFHVLQ
EHKDYLRXUQHZLVVXHVDULVH%DVHGRQWKHPRQLWRULQJRIYDULRXVGHYLDWLRQV
IURP UDWLRQDO EHKDYLRXU RI HFRQRPLF HQWLWLHV D QHZ HFRQRPLF ¿HOG KDV
EHHQ HVWDEOLVKHG %HKDYLRXUDO HFRQRPLFV DQG EHKDYLRXUDO ¿QDQFH WU\ WR
H[SODLQ ZKDW QHRFODVVLFDO HFRQRPLF WKHRU\ FDQQRW H[SODLQ %HFDXVH WKLV
VXEGLVFLSOLQH RI HFRQRPLFV LQ FHUWDLQ ZD\V UHSUHVHQWV D VKDUS GHSDUWXUH
IURPPDLQVWUHDPQHRFODVVLFDOHFRQRPLFVLWUDLVHVDQXPEHURITXHVWLRQV
RI D SKLORVRSKLFDO PHWKRGRORJLFDO DQG KLVWRULFDO QDWXUH %HKDYLRXUDO
HFRQRPLFVWU\WRGLVSURYHWKHUDWLRQDOPRGHORIGHFLVLRQPDNLQJ,QPDQ\
ZD\VUHDOEHKDYLRXUFRQWUDGLFWVWKHUDWLRQDOPRGHO7KHDVVXPSWLRQVRIWKH
UDWLRQDOPRGHODUHFRPSDUHGZLWKWKHUHVXOWVRISV\FKRORJLFDOH[SHULPHQWV
,Q WKLV DUWLFOH ZH ZLOO VWXG\ WKH GLIIHUHQW EHKDYLRXU RI PHQ DQG ZRPHQ
WRZDUGLQVXUDQFHSXUFKDVH:HDOVRIRFXVRQWKHLUUDWLRQDODVSHFWVRIWKHLU
EHKDYLRXU
%HKDYLRXUDO(FRQRPLFVDQGWKH,QVXUDQFH0DUNHW
6WDQGDUGHFRQRPLFVYLHZRILQVXUDQFHPDUNH
³6WDQGDUG HFRQRPLFV DVVXPHV WKDW ZH DUH UDWLRQDO %XW DV WKH UHVXOWV
VKRZ ZH DUH IDU OHVV UDWLRQDO LQ RXU GHFLVLRQ PDNLQJ 2XU LUUDWLRQDO
EHKDYLRXUV DUH QHLWKHU UDQGRP QRU VHQVHOHVV ± WKH\ DUH V\VWHPDWLF DQG
SUHGLFWDEOH :H DOO PDNH WKH VDPH W\SHV RI PLVWDNHV RYHU DQG RYHU DJDLQ
EHFDXVHRIWKHEDVLFZLULQJRIRXUEUDLQV,IZHDOOPDNHV\VWHPDWLFPLVWDNHV
LQ RXU GHFLVLRQV WKHQ ZK\ QRW GHYHORS QHZ VWUDWHJLHV WRROV DQG PHWKRGV
WRKHOSXVPDNHEHWWHUGHFLVLRQVDQGLPSURYHRXURYHUDOOZHOOEHLQJ"´>@
7UDGLWLRQDOHFRQRPLFVFRQFHSWXDOL]HVDZRUOGSRSXODWHGE\VRFDOOHG+RPR
(.2120,&.e52=+ď$'< – ECONOMIC REVIEW
VOLUME 45., 2/2016
(FRQRPLFXV DQ XQHPRWLRQDO DJHQW ZKR ZDQWV WR PD[LPL]H KLV XWLOLW\ IRU
ERWKPRQHWDU\DQGQRQPRQHWDU\JDLQV7KHHFRQRPLFDFWRUVHHNVWRDWWDLQ
YHU\VSHFL¿FDQGSODQQHGJRDOVWRWKHJUHDWHVWH[WHQWZLWKWKHOHDVWSRVVLEOH
FRVW7UDGLWLRQDOHFRQRPLFPRGHOVKDYHUHOLHGRQWKHDVVXPSWLRQWKDWKXPDQV
DUH UDWLRQDO VHOILQWHUHVWHG DFWRUV ZKR KDYH WKH DELOLW\ WR PDNH MXGJPHQWV
WRZDUGVVXEMHFWLYHO\GH¿QHGHQGV,QJHQHUDOLQGLYLGXDOLQVXUDQFHEHKDYLRXU
LVFRQVLGHUHGLQUHODWLRQWRH[SHFWHGXWLOLW\WKHRU\,IWKHSULFHRILQVXUDQFH
LVDWDFWXDULDOIDLUDPRXQWWKHLQGLYLGXDOEDODQFHVKLVZHDOWKLQWZRSRVVLEOH
VWDWHVORVVYVQRORVVE\ REWDLQLQJIXOOLQVXUDQFHFRYHUDJH>@1HRFODVVLFDO
HFRQRPLFWKHRU\DVVXPHVWKDWFRQVXPHUVKDYHDYDLODEOHDOOSURSHULQIRUPDWLRQ
DERXW ULVNV VR WKH\ DUH DEOH WR GHFLGH RQ LQVXUDQFH SXUFKDVHV E\ PDNLQJ
FOHDU DQG UDWLRQDO WUDGHRIIV EHWZHHQ WKH H[SHFWHG EHQH¿WV DQG WKH FRVWV RI
GLIIHUHQWSROLFLHV $FDGHPLFZRUNHUVDQGUHVHDUFKHUVZRUOGZLGHDSSO\ZHOO
NQRZQH[SHFWHGXWLOLW\WKHRU\RIFKRLFHDVDEDVLVIRUWKHEHQFKPDUNPRGHO
RI LQVXUDQFH GHPDQG WR DQDO\]H LQGLYLGXDOV¶ GHFLVLRQ PDNLQJ SURFHVV DQG
WKHLUEHKDYLRXUXQGHUXQFHUWDLQW\>@7RVXPXSWKHQHRFODVVLFDOHFRQRPLFV
DSSURDFKWKHNH\IDFWRULQFUHDWLQJGHPDQGIRULQVXUDQFHLVULVNDYHUVLRQ
5LVNDYHUVHLQGLYLGXDOZRXOGEHZLOOLQJWRSD\DFHUWDLQSULFHWRDYRLGULVN\
VLWXDWLRQVLQIDYRXURIFHUWDLQDOWHUQDWLYHV5LVNDYHUVLRQLVQRWKRPRJHQHRXV
LQWKHSRSXODWLRQ,QGLYLGXDOVPDNHGHFLVLRQVLQULVN\VLWXDWLRQVGLIIHUHQWO\
GHSHQGLQJRQDYDLODEOHUHVRXUFHVDJHDQGDOVRJHQGHU$VVWDWHGLQVHYHUDO
DFDGHPLFVWXGLHVWKHUHLVDQHJDWLYHUHODWLRQVKLSEHWZHHQDJHDQGULVNDYHUVLRQ
XQWLODJHZKHQWKHUHODWLRQVKLSWXUQVSRVLWLYH>@$QRWKHULPSRUWDQWIDFWRU
DIIHFWLQJGHPDQGIRULQVXUDQFHLVWKHSULFHRILQVXUDQFHGH¿QHGDVDUDWLRRI
LQVXUDQFHSUHPLXPVSDLGWRWKHDPRXQWRIH[SHFWHGLQVXUDQFHEHQH¿W:KHQ
EX\LQJLQVXUDQFHSHRSOHPDNHGHFLVLRQVEDVHGRQWKHVL]HRISRWHQWLDOORVV
WKDWZRXOGEHLQFXUUHGLIWKHLQVXUHGHYHQWRFFXUVDQGWKHORVVLVPXOWLSOLHG
E\WKHSUREDELOLW\RILWVRFFXUUHQFH
%HKDYLRXUDOHFRQRPLFVYLHZRIWKHLQVXUDQFHPDUNHW
7KH UHDO ZRUOG GRHV QRW DOZD\V PDWFK WKH EHQFKPDUN PRGHOV ,QVXUDQFH
7KHGH¿QLWLRQRIWKHWHUP+RPR(FRQRPLFXVZDV¿UVWSURSRVHGE\-RKQ6WHZDUGV
0LOOVLQWKHWKFHQWXU\$OWKRXJKWKHWHUPGLGQRWFRPHLQWRXVHXQWLOWKHWK
FHQWXU\LWLVRIWHQDVVRFLDWHGZLWKWKHLGHDVRIWKFHQWXU\HFRQRPLVWVVXFKDV$GDP
6PLWKDQG'DYLG5LFDUGR
,QDFFRUGDQFHZLWKWKHVRFLRELRORJLFDODUJXPHQWVZHFDQDVVXPHWKDWSHRSOHXVXDOO\
EHKDYHLQDULVNDYHUVHPDQQHU:KHQFKRRVLQJEHWZHHQWZRULVN\DOWHUQDWLYHVZLWKWKH
VDPHH[SHFWHGYDOXHSHRSOHXVXDOO\SUHIHUWKHDOWHUQDWLYHZLWKDVPDOOHUYDULDQFHEXWWKH
GRZQZDUGGHYLDWLRQIURPWKHH[SHFWHGDYHUDJHORVVLVDVVHVVHGZLWKDKLJKHUGHJUHHRI
DYHUVLRQFRPSDUHGWRWKHXSZDUGGHYLDWLRQJDLQRIWKHVDPHVL]H
(.2120,&.e52=+ď$'< – ECONOMIC REVIEW
VOLUME 45., 2/2016
FRPSDQLHVDQGLQGLYLGXDOVGRQRWPDNHVWULFWO\UDWLRQDOGHFLVLRQVWKDWQHRFODVVLFDO
HFRQRPLFV ZRXOG SUHGLFW HYHQ LI WKHUH DUH VXFK FRQGLWLRQV DV YROXQWDU\ DQG
IUHHFKRLFHRQWKHVXSSO\DQGGHPDQGVLGHV7KHUHDOLW\RILQVXUDQFHPDUNHWV
LPSOLHV WKDW WKH LQFHQWLYH WR SXUFKDVH LQVXUDQFH LV QRW EDVHG SXUHO\ RQ ULVN
DYHUVLRQ DQG RWKHU PHQWLRQHG IDFWRUV ,Q IDFW WKHVH IDFWRUV DUH QRW VXI¿FLHQW
LQH[SODLQLQJWKHFUHDWLRQRIWKHGHPDQGIRULQVXUDQFH5HDOSHRSOHWDNHLQWR
DFFRXQWLUUHOHYDQWIDFWRUVDQGFRQVLGHUDWLRQVZKLFKUHVXOWLQGHYLDWLRQVIURP
UDWLRQDO EHKDYLRXU ,Q SUDFWLFH WKH EHKDYLRXUV RI DFWRUV LQ WKH HFRQRP\ DUH
QRWDOZD\VUDWLRQDOSUHGLFWDEOHRUEDVHGRQWKHWUDGLWLRQDOHFRQRPLFPRGHOV
7KHVWDQGDUGHFRQRPLFIUDPHZRUNLJQRUHVDQGGRHVQRWEHDULQPLQGDOOWKH
EHKDYLRXUVWXGLHGE\FRJQLWLYHDQGVRFLDOSV\FKRORJLVWV+RPR(FRQRPLFXVKDV
H[FOXVLYHO\SRSXODWHGWKHWKHRUHWLFDOZRUOGRIHFRQRPLFVIRUPRUHWKDQDFHQWXU\
%HKDYLRXUDOHFRQRPLFVGHDOVZLWKKXPDQUDWLRQDOLW\PRUHSUHFLVHO\ZLWKWKH
ODFN RI UDWLRQDOLW\ RI PDUNHW SOD\HUV DQG IRFXVHV RQ FRJQLWLYH DQG HPRWLRQDO
SURFHVVHVWKDWFDXVHGHYLDWLRQVIURPUDWLRQDOLW\%HKDYLRXUDOPRGHOVLQWHJUDWH
NQRZOHGJHIURPQHRFODVVLFDOHFRQRPLFVZLWKNQRZOHGJHRISV\FKRORJ\,QD
IUHTXHQWO\FLWHGVXUYH\DUWLFOH5DELQ>@FKDUDFWHUL]HVEHKDYLRXUDOHFRQRPLFV
DV³SV\FKRORJ\DQG(FRQRPLFV´&DPHUHU>@GHVFULEHVEHKDYLRXUDOHFRQRPLFV
DVDUHVHDUFKSURJUDPDLPHGDWUHXQLI\LQJSV\FKRORJ\DQGHFRQRPLFV$FFRUGLQJ
WRHPSLULFDOHYLGHQFHDQGDFDGHPLFUHVHDUFKQHRFODVVLFDOPRGHOVRIWHQIDLOWR
DFFXUDWHO\ GHVFULEH KXPDQ FKRLFH EHKDYLRXU 7KH UHDVRQV IRU WKLV IDLOXUH DUH
QXPHURXVFRJQLWLYHOLPLWDWLRQVDQGWKHSUHVHQFHRIERXQGHGUDWLRQDOLW\DVZHOO
DVDJUHDWQXPEHURIOLPLWDWLRQVRIKXPDQNQRZOHGJHDQGKXPDQFRPSXWDWLRQ
WKDWVWRSUHDOZRUOGLQGLYLGXDOVIURPDFWLQJLQWKHZD\VWKDWDUHVLPLODUWRWKH
SUHGLFWLRQVRIFODVVLFDODQGQHRFODVVLFDOWKHRULHV>@
,QVXUDQFH 'HPDQG %HKDYLRXU WKDW LV QRW LQ WKH $FFRUGDQFH ZLWK
%HQFKPDUN0RGHOV
7KHGHYLDWLRQIURPFODVVLFDOPRGHOVSUHGLFWLRQVFRXOGEHREVHUYHGRQWKH
GHPDQGVLGHLQGLYLGXDOVVHHNLQJIRULQVXUDQFHFRYHUDJHDVZHOODVRQWKH
VXSSO\VLGHLQVXUDQFHFRPSDQLHVVHOOLQJWKHLQVXUDQFHWRPDNHDSUR¿WRI
LQVXUDQFHPDUNHW0DQ\SHRSOHIRUZKRPLQVXUDQFHLVZRUWKSXUFKDVLQJGR
QRW KDYH FRYHUDJH DQG RWKHUV ZKR DSSHDU QRW WR QHHG ¿QDQFLDO SURWHFWLRQ
DJDLQVW FHUWDLQ HYHQWVKDYH SXUFKDVHGFRYHUDJH7KHVH DQG RWKHUH[DPSOHV
VXJJHVWWKDWSUDFWLFHVLQWKHLQVXUDQFHPDUNHWDUHQRWDOZD\VLQDFFRUGDQFH
ZLWKVWDQGDUGHFRQRPLFWKHRU\$FDGHPLFVWXGLHV>@UHJDUGLQJ
LQVXUDQFH GHFLVLRQ PDNLQJ LQGLFDWH WKDW WKHUH DUH PDQ\ GHYLDWLRQV IURP
QHRFODVVLFDOWKHRU\ZKLFKFRXOGEHGLYLGHGLQWRWKUHHJHQHUDOJURXSVXQGHU
(.2120,&.e52=+ď$'< – ECONOMIC REVIEW
VOLUME 45., 2/2016
SXUFKDVHRYHUSXUFKDVHRUSXUFKDVLQJWKHZURQJDPRXQWRUW\SHRIFRYHUDJH
>@7KHGHYLDWLRQVDUHIRUH[DPSOHDVIROORZV
,QÀXHQFH RI HPRWLRQV RQ LQVXUDQFH SXUFKDVH DQG FODLP GHFLVLRQV
3ROLF\KROGHUV DSSHDU ZLOOLQJ WR VSHQG PRUH WLPH DQG HIIRUW WR PDNH DQ
LQVXUDQFH FODLP IRU D GDPDJHG RU VWROHQ REMHFW WKDW LV SUHFLRXV WKDQ IRU
DQ LGHQWLFDO REMHFW FRQVLGHUHG WR EH QRW VSHFLDO :KHQ EX\LQJ LQVXUDQFH
IRU³SHDFHRIPLQG´SHRSOHGRQRWIRFXVRQWKHULVNRIDORVVDQGWKHQHHG
IRU ¿QDQFLDO SURWHFWLRQ 0RUH LPSRUWDQW LV WKH DIIHFWLRQ DQG WKH SHUVRQDO
UHODWLRQVKLS ZLWK WKH REMHFW 7KHUH LV DQ HYLGHQFH RI DFDGHPLF VWXGLHV
ZKLFK KDYH LGHQWL¿HG SV\FKRORJLFDO SURFHVVHV VXFK DV UHJUHW HXSKRULD RU
GLVDSSRLQWPHQW DV LPSRUWDQW IDFWRUV LQ H[SODLQLQJ LQGLYLGXDOV¶ LQVXUDQFH
SXUFKDVH SUHIHUHQFHV 3HRSOH FRXOG UHJUHW EX\LQJ LQVXUDQFH DJDLQVW VRPH
ULVNHJÀRRGLQJLIWKHLQVXUHGHYHQWKDVQRWKDSSHQHGZKHQWKHLQVXUDQFH
SROLF\ZDVYDOLG7KLVIHHOLQJRIUHJUHWPD\UHVXOWLQDYRLGLQJEX\LQJVXFK
LQVXUDQFHFRYHUDJHDJDLQLQSHUVRQ¶VOLIHWLPH6HWRIDFDGHPLFH[SHULPHQWV
>@DQDO\]HGLIWKHDWWDFKPHQWRIDSHUVRQWRDQREMHFWDIIHFWVWKHOHYHORI
SUHPLXPWKDWWKHSHUVRQLVZLOOLQJWRSD\IRULQVXUDQFHDQGDOVRWKHOHQJWKRI
WLPHWKH\ZRXOGDFFHSWWRZDLWIRUWKHFRPSHQVDWLRQLIWKHLQVXUHGREMHFWZDV
GDPDJHG7KH¿QGLQJZDVWKDWSHRSOHZHUHZLOOLQJSD\PRUHDQGWRZDLWIRU
DORQJHUSHULRGRIWLPHWRJHWWKHFRPSHQVDWLRQFRPSDUHGWRWKHVLPLODULWHP
LQSULFHZKLFKWKH\KDGQRVSHFLDOIHHOLQJZLWK
&DQFHOODWLRQ RI DQ LQVXUDQFH FRQWUDFW LI DQ LQVXUHG HYHQW GLG QRW RFFXU
0DQ\FRQVXPHUVWHQGWRFDQFHODQLQVXUDQFHSROLF\DIWHUWKHUHZDVQRFODLP
GXULQJDFHUWDLQQXPEHURI\HDUV7KH\KDGSDLGDVLJQL¿FDQWDPRXQWRIIXQGV
LQSUHPLXPVIRUWKHLQVXUDQFHSURWHFWLRQEXWGXULQJWKLVSHULRGWKHUHZDVQRW
DQ\LQVXUHGHYHQW7KHUHIRUHDIWHUWKLVSHULRGRIQRLQFLGHQWVWKH\GHFLGHWR
WHUPLQDWHWKHSROLF\7KH\FRQVLGHUWKHPRQH\WKH\SDLGWREHD³GLVDGYDQWDJH´
RUORVWLQYHVWPHQW7KH\GRQRWUHDOL]HWKDWWKHSUREDELOLW\RIKDUPIXOHYHQW
LVVWLOOWKHVDPH7KLVW\SHRIDQRPDO\H[LVWVRIWHQLQWKHPDUNHWRILQVXUDQFH
SURWHFWLRQ DJDLQVW ÀRRGV 7KH RZQHUV ZKR KDYH FRQFOXGHG DQ LQVXUDQFH
FRQWUDFWIRUWKLVW\SHRISURWHFWLRQDQGWKHUHKDVEHHQQRÀRRGHYHQWZLWKLQIHZ
\HDUVWHQGWRFDQFHOWKHLQVXUDQFHFRQWUDFWDIWHUWKLVSHULRG>@7KLVW\SHRI
EHKDYLRXULVOLQNHGZLWKDYLHZRILQVXUDQFHDVDQLQYHVWPHQW$IWHUDFHUWDLQ
WLPHWKH\SDLGSUHPLXPVDQGQRLQVXUHGHYHQWRFFXUWKH\KDYHDIHHOLQJWKDW
WKH\KDYHZDVWHGWKHLUPRQH\+RZHYHUWKH\ZRXOGQHYHUEHEHWWHURIILIDQ
LQVXUHGHYHQWRFFXUUHW,QVXUDQFHLVQRWDQ\LQYHVWPHQWLWLVSURWHFWLRQ2WKHU
EHKDYLRXUVWKDWDUHQRWIROORZLQJFODVVLFDOEHQFKPDUNPRGHOVDUHIRUH[DPSOH
>@ LQVXUDQFH SXUFKDVH EHFDXVH RI VRFLDO QRUPV ZLOOLQJQHVV WR SXUFKDVH
(.2120,&.e52=+ď$'< – ECONOMIC REVIEW
VOLUME 45., 2/2016
LQVXUDQFHDJDLQVWQRQSHFXQLDU\ORVVHVXQZLOOLQJQHVVWRPDNHVPDOOFODLPV
DERYHWKHLUGHGXFWLEOHSUHIHUHQFHIRUORZGHGXFWLEOHV>@SUHIHUHQFHV
IRUSROLFLHVZLWKUHEDWHVZKHQQRUHEDWHSROLF\LV¿QDQFLDOO\PRUHDWWUDFWLYH
OLPLWHG LQWHUHVW LQ FDWDVWURSKLF FRYHUDJH SXUFKDVH RI ÀLJKW LQVXUDQFH HYHQ
WKRXJKOLIHLQVXUDQFHLVDEHWWHUGHDOIUDPLQJDSUREOHPLQWHUPVRILQVXUDQFH
UDWKHU WKDQ WKH ORVV LQFUHDVHV WKH GHPDQG IRU FRYHUDJH 7KH UHDVRQ IRU WKH
RFFXUUHQFHRIPHQWLRQHGLQVXUDQFHGHPDQGEHKDYLRXUFRXOGEHWKHSUHVHQFHRI
LQFRPSOHWHLQIRUPDWLRQHUURUVLQFRJQLWLYHGHFLVLRQPDNLQJDQGLQDQDO\WLFDO
WKLQNLQJ6HHPLQJO\LUUDWLRQDOEHKDYLRXURQWKHGHPDQGVLGHIRULQVXUDQFHPD\
EHDUHVXOWRIWKHHIIRUWVRISHRSOHWRFRQWUROWKHLUHPRWLRQVVXFKDVDQ[LHW\
VDGQHVVDQGDIHDURIORVV&ODVVLFDOPRGHOVGRQRWLQFOXGHWKHVHQRQ¿QDQFLDO
DWWULEXWHVDIIHFWLQJWKHXWLOLW\IXQFWLRQRIWKHLQGLYLGXDO2WKHUUHDVRQVZK\
WKH UHDO EHKDYLRXU GLIIHUV IURP WKH UHIHUHQFH PRGHOV DUH LPSHUIHFWLRQV LQ
FROOHFWLRQDQGSURFHVVLQJRIQHFHVVDU\LQIRUPDWLRQPLVXQGHUVWDQGLQJRIULVN
HJXQGHUHVWLPDWLRQRIULVNXVHRIHVWLPDWLRQZKHQVHOHFWLQJDQGDVVHVVLQJ
ULVNRUXQZLOOLQJQHVVWRFRQVLGHUDOOWKHDOWHUQDWLYHVRIIHUHG
'LIIHUHQW%HKDYLRXURI0HQDQG:RPHQLQ)LQDQFLDO0DWWHUV
$FFRUGLQJ WR WKH SUHYLRXV WH[W ZH FDQ VWDWH WKDW WKH LQVXUDQFH PDUNHW LV
H[SRVHGWRDQXPEHURIQHZO\GHWHFWHGIDFWRUVWKDWLQÀXHQFHWKHEHKDYLRXURI
FOLHQWV7KHVHIDFWRUVPD\DOVRGLIIHUGHSHQGLQJRQWKHVH[RIWKHSRWHQWLDOFOLHQW
7KHGLIIHUHQFHVLQEHKDYLRXUEHWZHHQPHQDQGZRPHQFDQEHREVHUYHGLQYDULRXV
VSKHUHVRIOLIH,QUHODWLRQWR¿QDQFLDOLVVXHVZRPHQDUHRIWHQXQGHUHVWLPDWHG
FRPSDUHGWRPHQZKRPD\EHUHODWHGWRWKHLUORZHUFRQ¿GHQFHLQFRQFOXGLQJ
LQVXUDQFHSURGXFWVSROLFLHVRQWKHLURZQ:RPHQDUHVDLGWREHPRUHVHQVLWLYH
WRULVNWKDQPHQDQGWKLVLVUHÀHFWHGLQDOODVSHFWVRIWKHLUGHFLVLRQPDNLQJ
LQFOXGLQJFKRLFHRISURIHVVLRQDQGVRHDUQLQJVLQYHVWPHQWGHFLVLRQVDQGZKDW
SURGXFWVWREX\([SHULPHQWDOHYLGHQFHVXJJHVWVWKDWZRPHQSHUFHLYHGULVNDVD
FHUWDLQGHJUHHRIXQFHUWDLQW\ZKLOHPDQ\PHQVHHULVNPRUHDVDQRSSRUWXQLW\WR
JDLQ0DQ\VWXGLHVDOVRSRLQWVWRWKHIDFWWKDWZRPHQWDNHSDUWLQULVN\EHKDYLRXU
LQDPXFKVPDOOHUSURSRUWLRQDVZHOODVLQLOOHJDODFWLYLWLHV7KHUHDUHQXPHURXV
VWXGLHVLQVRFLRORJ\DQGSV\FKRORJ\WKDWVXSSRUWWKHK\SRWKHVLVWKDWZRPHQDQG
PHQUHVSRQGWRULVNLQDGLIIHUHQWZD\6WXGLHVKDYHIRXQGVH[GLIIHUHQFHVLQ
WKHSHUFHSWLRQRIULVNDVVRFLDWHGZLWKDOFRKRODQGGUXJXVHWKHSHUFHSWLRQRIWKH
FDWDVWURSKLFSRWHQWLDORIQXFOHDUZDUWHFKQRORJ\UDGLRDFWLYHZDVWHLQGXVWULDO
KD]DUGVDQGHQYLURQPHQWDOGHJUDGDWLRQ>@:LWKUHJDUGWRWKHORQJHU
OLIHRIZRPDQNLQGZRPHQVKRXOGEHLQWHUHVWHGLQOLIHLQVXUDQFHSURGXFWVHJ
XQLWOLQNHG OLIH LQVXUDQFH ZLWK D VDYLQJV FRPSRQHQW WR D JUHDWHU H[WHQW WKDQ
(.2120,&.e52=+ď$'< – ECONOMIC REVIEW
VOLUME 45., 2/2016
PHQGXHWRWKHIDFWWKDWLQVXUDQFHDOVRFUHDWHVDFHUWDLQ¿QDQFLDOUHVHUYHIRUWKH
IXWXUH7UHQGRIORQJHYLW\VKRXOGFXUUHQWO\UHFDOOLQZRPHQWKHQHHGRILQFRPH
VHFXULW\DQGSURWHFWLRQHYHQLQROGHUDJH6HYHUDOFRQGXFWHGVXUYH\VVKRZWKDWD
QXPEHURIVXEVWDQWLDOGLIIHUHQFHVLQWKH¿QDQFLDOEHKDYLRXURIPHQDQGZRPHQ
:HFDQWKXVVD\WKDWIHPDOHVWDNHLQYHVWPHQWGHFLVLRQVLQDKLJKHUGHJUHHRI
XQFHUWDLQW\WKDQPHQDQGWKHUHIRUHDOVRVHOHFWPRUHFRQVHUYDWLYHLQYHVWPHQW
VWUDWHJLHV WKDQ PDOHV DQG ZKLOH DFFHSWLQJ WKH ULVN VROXWLRQV ZRPHQ UHTXLUH
KLJKHULQYHVWPHQWSUHPLXP0HULOO/\QFK%DQN6XUYH\$FFRUGLQJWR
WKHVXUYH\WKHGLIIHUHQFHVEHWZHHQWKHWZRVH[HVZKLOHWKLQNLQJDERXWPRQH\
DUHDVIROORZVZRPHQRIWHQDVVRFLDWHWKHWHUPLQYHVWPHQWZLWKJUHHGWKH\KDYH
UHPRUVHWKDWWKH\PD\WKUHDWHQIDPLO\¿QDQFHVWKH\FRQVLGHUWKDWWKH\KDYHOHVV
UHVRXUFHVDQGNQRZOHGJHWKDQUHTXLUHG*HQHUDOO\WKH\DVNDORWRITXHVWLRQV
DQGZDQWGHWDLOHGDQVZHUVWKH\QHHGPRUHWLPHIRUWKLQNLQJWKH\GH¿QHWKH
REMHFWLYHVDQGDLPVIRUWKHLQYHVWPHQWEHWWHUWKDQPHQ,QWKHFDVHRILQVXUDQFH
SXUFKDVH EHKDYLRXU ZRPHQ PRUH IUHTXHQWO\ XVH LQVXUDQFH LQWHUPHGLDULHV
WKH\ OLVWHQ LQ D JUHDWHU H[WHQW WR DGYLFH IURP IULHQGV RU DFTXDLQWDQFHV WKH\
DUH PRUH VSDULQJ WKHUHIRUH VHHN IRU WKH PRVW FRQYHQLHQW LQVXUDQFH SURGXFWV
WKDW XQGHUPLQH WKH IDPLO\ EXGJHW WKH OHDVW 0HQ RIWHQ FRQVLGHU LQVXUDQFH DV
DQ XQQHFHVVDU\ LQYHVWPHQW EHFDXVH RI WKH ORZ SUREDELOLW\ RI RFFXUUHQFH RI
LQVXUHGHYHQWDQGRQWKHFRQWUDU\ZRPHQPD\FRQFOXGHDQLQVXUDQFHSROLF\
EHFDXVHRIWKHLUIHDU0DOHVPD\DOVRKDYHDKLJKHUSRWHQWLDOWRFRQFOXGHDQ
LQVXUDQFHSROLF\EHFDXVHRIWKHLUJUHDWHUDZDUHQHVVRI¿QDQFLDOSURGXFWVDQG
KLJKHULQVXUDQFHOLWHUDF\PHQDUHWKXVFKDUDFWHUL]HGE\JUHDWHUVHOIFRQ¿GHQFH
WRWDNHRXWLQVXUDQFHDVZRPHQ>@
0HWKRGRORJ\
6HOHFWHG EHKDYLRXUDO DVSHFWV LQ FRQVXPHU EHKDYLRXU ZHUH LQYHVWLJDWHG
WKURXJKDTXHVWLRQQDLUH7KHTXHVWLRQQDLUHFRQVLVWHGRITXHVWLRQVUHODWLQJWR
WKHLQFHQWLYHVWREX\LQVXUDQFHFRYHUDJHDQGDOVRWRWKHGLIIHUHQWDUHDVNQRZQDV
DQRPDOLHVLQWKHLQVXUDQFHPDUNHW$OOWKHTXHVWLRQVRIIHUHGVHYHUDORSWLRQVDQG
LQWKHFDVHRIWZRTXHVWLRQVUHVSRQGHQWVFRXOGLQGLFDWHVHYHUDOSRVVLEOHDQVZHUV
7KHUHVSRQVHVZHUHFROOHFWHGGXULQJ$SULO±$XJXVW7KHTXHVWLRQQDLUH
ZDVGHVLJQHGDQGWKHPDMRULW\RIUHVSRQVHVZHUHFROOHFWHGLQEDFKHORUWKHVLV
³,UUDWLRQDOEHKDYLRXURIFRQVXPHUVLQWKH6ORYDNLQVXUDQFHPDUNHW´>@7KH
VXUYH\ZDVDWWHQGHGE\UHVSRQGHQWVDQGDVDPSOHRIUHVSRQGHQWVZDV
VHOHFWHGWR¿QDOHYDOXDWLRQRIWKHVXUYH\7KHVDPSOHFRQVLVWHGRIZRPHQDQG
PHQDJHGWR\HDUV±WKHSRSXODWLRQLQSURGXFWLYHDJH7KHGLVWULEXWLRQ
$YDLODEOHDWZZZWKHLQYHVWPHQWDVVRFLDWLRQRUJDVVHWV¿OHVSUHVV20052005SGI
(.2120,&.e52=+ď$'< – ECONOMIC REVIEW
VOLUME 45., 2/2016
RI VHOHFWHG VDPSOH FRUUHVSRQGHG WR WKH SHUFHQWDJH GLVWULEXWLRQ RI WKH 6ORYDN
SRSXODWLRQE\JHQGHUDQGDJHDFFRUGLQJWRGDWDIURPWKH6WDWLVWLFDO2I¿FHRIWKH
6ORYDN5HSXEOLFWRWKH'HFHPEHU7RVWXG\WKHLPSDFWRIJHQGHURQ
WKHEHKDYLRXURILQVXUDQFHLQVHOHFWHGLVVXHVZHXVHDVWDWLVWLFDOFKLVTXDUHWHVW
:HZLOOWDNHLQWRFRQVLGHUDWLRQVLJQL¿FDQFHOHYHO
%HKDYLRXUDO$VSHFWVLQ,QVXUDQFH3XUFKDVH%HKDYLRXU
5LVNDYHUVLRQDPRQJPHQDQGZRPHQ
7KHUHDUHPDQ\LQFHQWLYHVDQGIDFWRUVWKDWQHFHVVLWDWHWKHSXUFKDVHRILQVXUDQFH
SURGXFWV:HKDYHLQYHVWLJDWHGWKHIDFWRUVWKDWHQFRXUDJHPRUHIHPDOHWKLQNLQJ
DQGWKHIDFWRUVWKDWFUHDWHWKHQHHGRILQVXUDQFHLQFDVHRIPHQSRSXODWLRQ7KHUH
LVDQDVVXPSWLRQWKDWZRPHQ¶VORJLFDQGUHDVRQLQJZLOOEHPRUHFDXWLRXVDQG
WKHUHIRUHZLOODOVRSUHYDLOPRUHDYHUVHEHKDYLRXUWRZDUGVULVNHYHQWV$FFRUGLQJ
WR WKH VXUYH\ ZRPHQ KDYH D JUHDWHU IHDU RI DGYHUVH ¿QDQFLDO FRQGLWLRQV DQG
WKHLU KHDOWK DQG SURSHUW\ DQG WKHUHIRUH DUH VHHNLQJ IRU WKH SURWHFWLRQ WKURXJK
LQVXUDQFH SURGXFWV PRUH WKDQ PHQ 7KH PDOH EHKDYLRXU WRZDUGV ULVNV LV DOVR
LQÀXHQFHGE\WKHOHYHOVRIKRUPRQHWHVWRVWHURQHLQWKHLUERGLHV0HQLQWKHLUV
JR WKURXJK VRPHWKLQJ FDOOHG ³WHVWRVWHURQH VWRUP´7KH OHYHOV RI WKH KRUPRQH
FDQEHTXLWHKLJKDQGFKDQJHDEOHDQGWKDWFDQLQGXFHVRPHSUHWW\GDQJHURXV
EHKDYLRXUDPRQJ\RXQJPHQ7KH\GRQRWZHDUWKHLUVHDWEHOWVWKH\GULQNWRR
PXFKDOFRKRODQGWKH\FDQEHDJJUHVVLYHZLWKZHDSRQVDQGVRRQDQGVRIRUWK
7KHVHEHKDYLRXUVOHDGDOVRWRDKLJKHUGHDWKUDWH>@7KLVULVN\EHKDYLRXUZDV
QRWIXOO\FRQ¿UPHGE\WKHUHVXOWVRIRXUVXUYH\EHFDXVHZHIRXQGWKHORZHVWULVN
DYHUVLRQDPRQJWKHJURXSDJHG\HDUV7KHKLJKHUULVNVHHNLQJEHKDYLRXU
PD\EHFRQQHFWHGWRWKHVRFDOOHGDQGURSDXVHPDOHPHQRSDXVHWKDWPD\RFFXU
DVHDUO\DVDJHWR/RZWHVWRVWHURQHOHYHOVFDXVHV\PSWRPVVXFKDVORVV
RILQWHUHVWLQVH[GHFUHDVHGOLELGRRUGHSUHVVLRQ>@0RUHRYHUWKHPHQZLWK
GHSUHVVLRQPD\KDYHUHGXFHGVXUYLYDOLQVWLQFWDQGVHHNPRUHULVN
7KHIDFWRUVVWLPXODWLQJLQVXUDQFHSXUFKDVH
,W FDQ EH VWDWHG WKDW ZKHQ EX\LQJ LQVXUDQFH WKH ZRPDQ¶V PLQG DIIHFWV
RWKHUKLHUDUFK\RIIDFWRUVWKDQLQFDVHRIRSSRVLWHVH[)LJXUHVKRZVWKH
IDFWRUVWKDWHQFRXUDJHZRPHQDQGPHQWREX\DQLQVXUDQFHFRYHUDJH
7KHQXPEHURIUHVSRQGHQWVDFFRUGLQJWRDJHFDWHJRU\DQGJHQGHUZDVDVIROORZV
±\HDUPHQDQGZRPHQ±\HDUVPHQDQGZRPHQ±\HDUV
PHQDQGZRPHQ±\HDUVPHQDQGZRPHQ±\HDUVPHQDQG
ZRPHQ
(.2120,&.e52=+ď$'< – ECONOMIC REVIEW
VOLUME 45., 2/2016
)LJXUH
7KHIDFWRUVWKDWHQFRXUDJHZRPHQDQGPHQWREX\DQLQVXUDQFHFRYHUDJH
6RXUFHWKHUHVXOWVRIWKHVXUYH\
7KHIHPDOHJHQGHULVVKRZQLQUHGFRORXUDQGPHQDUHUHSUHVHQWHGLQEOXH7KH
¿JXUHVKRZVWKHKLHUDUFKLFDOO\DUUDQJHGIDFWRUVWKDWLQÀXHQFHWKHGHFLVLRQWREX\
LQVXUDQFH7KHJUDSKLQFOXGHVVL[IDFWRUVWKDWUHVSRQGHQWVFRXOGPDUNGHSHQGLQJ
RQWKHLUSHUVRQDODWWLWXGHVWRZDUGVWKHFRQFOXVLRQRILQVXUDQFHFRQWUDFWV,QWKLV
TXHVWLRQWKHUHVSRQGHQWVFRXOGLQGLFDWHDQ\QXPEHURIRSWLRQV7KH¿JXUHUHIHUV
WRWKHIDFWWKDWWKHODUJHVWQXPEHURILQVXUDQFHSROLFLHVLVFXUUHQWO\FRQFOXGHGIRU
UHDVRQVRIIHDURIDSRVVLEOHFODLP:HZRXOGOLNHWRVWUHVVWKH¿UVWWKUHHIDFWRUVZKLFK
KDYHEHHQLGHQWL¿HGLQWKHJUHDWHVWQXPEHU7KHPDMRULW\RIVXUYH\HGUHVSRQGHQWV
VDLGWKDWDYHUVLRQWRULVNHYHQWLVWKHPRVWLPSRUWDQWIDFWRULQFRQFOXVLRQRIWKH
FRQWUDFW$FFRUGLQJWRWKHFKDUWZHFDQVHHWKDWWKHDEVROXWHPDMRULW\RIZRPHQ
VDLGWKDWWKHPRVWHQFRXUDJLQJLVWKHIHDURISRVVLEOHDGYHUVHHYHQWVDQG
WKH IROORZLQJ ¿QDQFLDO ORVVHV ,Q FRQWUDVW WKH PHQ VKRZHG ORZHU ULVNDYHUVLRQ
2QO\RIPHQUHSRUWHGWKDWWKHIHDURIULVNHYHQWVLVWKHIDFWRUWKDWLQÀXHQFH
WKHP7KHJHQGHULVDVLJQL¿FDQWIDFWRULIZHWDNHLQWRDFFRXQWWKHFRQFOXVLRQRI
LQVXUDQFHEHFDXVHRIIHDURIORVV$WDVLJQL¿FDQFHOHYHORIZHUHMHFWWKHQXOO
K\SRWKHVLVRIWKHLQGHSHQGHQFHRIWKHJHQGHUDQGIHDURIORVVDQGDFFHSWDOWHUQDWLYH
K\SRWKHVLVZKLFKWHOOVXVWKDWWKHUHLVFHUWDLQGHSHQGHQFH7KHPDOHVDUHJHQHUDOO\
NQRZQWREHDEOHWRZLWKVWDQGWKHULVNVWRDJUHDWHUH[WHQWWKDQZRPHQDQGWKHUHIRUH
WKHPHQRIWHQXQGHUHVWLPDWHLQVXUDQFHFRYHUDJHIRUYDULRXVUHDVRQV
$QRWKHULPSRUWDQWIDFWRUDIIHFWLQJZRPHQ¶VWKLQNLQJLVDOVRFRXQVHOOLQJDQG
(.2120,&.e52=+ď$'< – ECONOMIC REVIEW
VOLUME 45., 2/2016
DGYLFHIURPIULHQGVRUDFTXDLQWDQFHVFRPSDUHGWRPHQ¶V¶,Q
FDVHDFOLHQWLVVXUURXQGHGE\SHRSOHZKRDUHYHU\VDWLV¿HGZLWKWKHLULQVXUDQFH
SURGXFWVVKHZLOODOVRZDQWWRRZQVXFKUHDVRQDEOHSROLF\7KHZRPDQNLQGLV
RIWHQLQÀXHQFHGE\WKHLUIULHQGVRUIDPLO\PHPEHUVLQDJUHDWH[WHQG6RPHRI
WKHIDPLO\PHPEHUVRUIULHQGVPD\KDYHFRQFOXGHGDTXDOLW\SURGXFWWKDWLV
KRZHYHUOLQNHGWRWKHIXO¿OPHQWRIFHUWDLQFRQGLWLRQVZKLFKPD\GLIIHUIURP
IHDWXUHVRIRXUUHVSRQGHQWV7KHHIIHFWRIJHQGHURQWKHFRXQVHOOLQJDQGDGYLFH
IURPIULHQGVLVQRWVWDWLVWLFDOO\VLJQL¿FDQWDWVLJQL¿FDQFHOHYHO
7KLVEHKDYLRXUZDVDOVRFRQ¿UPHGE\DQRWKHUTXHVWLRQZKHUHWKHUHVSRQGHQWV
ZHUH DVNHG DERXW FDU LQVXUDQFH 7KH\ VKRXOG KDYH DQVZHU ZKHWKHU WKH\ ZRXOG
FRQFOXGHGDQLQVXUDQFHSROLF\UHFRPPHQGHGE\DJRRGIULHQGZKRLVYHU\VDWLV¿HG
ZLWKWKHSURGXFWZKLOHQRWYHULI\LQJWKHGHWDLOVRIVXFKDQLQVXUDQFHSURGXFW2QO\RQ
DUHFRPPHQGDWLRQIURPDIULHQGZRXOGUHO\RIZRPHQDQGRIPHQDV
VKRZQLQWKH¿JXUHEHORZ7KLVVKRZVRQFHDJDLQWKDWZRPHQDUHPRUHWUXVWLQJ)RU
H[DPSOHZKHQLWFRPHVWRRQOLQHQHWZRUNLQJZRPHQKDYHWDNHQWKHOHDG2QHVWXG\
KDVVKRZQWKDWZRPHQZHUHRI)DFHERRNXVHUVDQGPRUHDFWLYHRQWKHVLWHWKDQ
PHQ±ZLWKPRUHIULHQGVWKDQPHQDQGGRLQJRIWKHVKDULQJ
)LJXUH
7KHLPSDFWRIIULHQGV¶H[SHULHQFHRQLQVXUDQFHGHFLVLRQV
6RXUFHUHVXOWVRIWKHVXUYH\
$YDLODEOHDWKWWSZZZIRUEHVFRPVLWHVMHQQDJRXGUHDXRQOLQHZRPHQ
PRUHOLNHO\WRWUXVWHDFKRWKHUIDFHERRN\DKRRWZLWWHUP\VSDFHPDUNHWLQJ
(.2120,&.e52=+ď$'< – ECONOMIC REVIEW
VOLUME 45., 2/2016
$QRWKHULPSRUWDQWIDFWRUWKHWKLUGSODFHLQZRPHQ¶VDQVZHUVZLWK
FRPSDUHG WR PHQ¶V LV WKH LPSDFW RI DGYHUWLVLQJ FDPSDLJQV IRU
LQVXUDQFHSURGXFWV,QVXUDQFHHQWLWLHVRIWHQXVHDGYHUWLVLQJFDPSDLJQWKURXJK
VSRQVRUVKLS RI YDULRXV HYHQWV LQ GLUHFW WHOHYLVLRQ EURDGFDVWLQJ *LYHQ WKH
IDFWWKDWZRPHQDUHPRUHOLNHO\WRUHDFKWKURXJKDGYHUWLVLQJFDPSDLJQVWKH\
EX\LQVXUDQFHSURGXFWVRIWHQEHFDXVHRIFHUWDLQPDUNHWLQJDFWLYLWLHVUDLVLQJ
WKHDZDUHQHVVRISDUWLFXODULQVXUDQFHSURGXFW$VXEVWDQWLDOHIIHFWKDVDOVR
WKHUHSXWDWLRQRILQVXUDQFHFRPSDQLHVZKLFKPD\EHVSUHDGE\IDPLO\DQG
IULHQGV ,Q WKLV FDVH WKH JHQGHU ZDV QRW VWDWLVWLFDOO\ VLJQL¿FDQW DW FKRVHQ
VLJQL¿FDQFHOHYHO
,QWKHFDVHRIWKHPDOHVWKHVHFRQGPRVWIUHTXHQWIDFWRUZDVWKHSXUFKDVH
RILQVXUDQFHDVDUHDFWLRQWRWKHSUHYLRXVKDUPIXOHYHQWFRPSDUHGWR
ZRPHQ¶V6XFKEHKDYLRXULVPRUHQRWDEOHIRUPHQWKDQIRUZRPHQ
0HQ RIWHQ XQGHUHVWLPDWH LQVXUDQFH FRYHUDJH LQLWLDOO\ EXW RYHU WLPH WKH\
PD\VXIIHUDQXQLQVXUHGHYHQWZKLFKPD\ZRUVHQWKHLU¿QDQFLDOVLWXDWLRQ
2QHFDQRQO\WKHQUHDOL]HWKHUHDOQHHGIRULQVXUDQFHFRYHUDJHZKLFKZRXOG
LQ VXFK HYHQWV SURYLGH ¿QDQFLDO VHFXULW\ DQG WKH ¿QDQFLDO ORVV ZRXOG EH
SDUWLDOO\RUIXOO\PLWLJDWHG0HQGRQRWUHDOL]HWKHUHDOQHHGRILQVXUDQFHLQ
WKH SHULRG XQWLO WKH RFFXUUHQFH RI XQLQVXUHG HYHQW ,QFHQWLYH IRU LQVXUDQFH
FRQWUDFWVFRQFOXVLRQWKXVRIWHQULVHVIURPHDUOLHURFFXUUHQFHRIDQHYHQWWKDW
ZDVQRWLQVXUHG,QFDVHRISUHYLRXVKDUPIXOHYHQWWKHJHQGHUKDVEHHQVKRZQ
DVVWDWLVWLFDOO\VLJQL¿FDQWDWVLJQL¿FDQFHOHYHO
7KHODVWIDFWRUWKDWZDVRIWHQFKRVHQE\UHVSRQGHQWVZDVWKHH[LVWHQFHRI
DSHUVRQDOUHODWLRQVKLSWRWKHREMHFWRILQVXUDQFH7KLVIDFWRUZDVLQGLFDWHG
E\ RI PHQ DQG RQO\ DERXW RI ZRPHQ7KH IDFW WKDW WKLV IDFWRU
RFFXSLHVWKHWKLUGSODFHLQPHQ¶VDQVZHUVPD\EHGXHWRWKHIDFWWKDWPDQ
RIWHQDVVLJQKLJKHUYDOXHWRWKHJRRGVWKDWZHUHHLWKHUSURGXFHGE\WKHPRU
WKH RZQHUVKLS ZDV UHDFKHG E\ DQRWKHU ZD\ EXW ZLWK WKHLU SHUVRQDO HIIRUW
7KLVEHKDYLRXUPD\EHUHODWHGWRWKHKHXULVWLFFDOOHGHQGRZPHQWHIIHFWWKH
PHUHRZQHUVKLSHIIHFWZKLFKLVEDVHGRQWKHK\SRWKHVLVWKDWSHRSOHDVFULEH
PRUHYDOXHWRWKLQJVPHUHO\EHFDXVHWKH\RZQWKHP>@7KHGLIIHUHQFHLQ
EHKDYLRXUUHODWHGWRWKHSHUVRQDOUHODWLRQVKLSWRWKHREMHFWRILQVXUDQFHLVQRW
VLJQL¿FDQW DW VLJQL¿FDQFH OHYHO:RPHQ DOVR UHSRUWHG HPRWLRQDO VWUHVV
DVDUHDVRQIRUEX\LQJLQVXUDQFHFRPSDUHGWRPHQ¶V7KHUHLV
DZHOONQRZQVWHUHRW\SHWKDWZRPHQDUHPXFKPRUH³HPRWLRQDO´WKDQPHQ
:KLOH LW LV FHUWDLQO\ WUXH WKDW E\ QDWXUH ZRPHQ DUH PRUH IRFXVHG RQ WKHLU
HPRWLRQVDQGUHIHUWRWKHPPRUHFRPPRQO\LQFRQYHUVDWLRQWKDQPHQERWK
JHQGHUVZLOOH[SHULHQFHHPRWLRQVDQGHPRWLRQDOUHDFWLRQVWRGLIIHUHQWVWLPXOL
(.2120,&.e52=+ď$'< – ECONOMIC REVIEW
VOLUME 45., 2/2016
DQG VLWXDWLRQV 7KHUH LV D FRPPRQ VWHUHRW\SH WKDW PHQ VKRXOG QRW VKRZ
WKHLUHPRWLRQVDQGWKDW³UHDOPHQ´GRQRWFU\RUJHWXSVHW$OVRFRPSDUHG
WR ZRPHQ PHQ ZLOO GLVSOD\ WKHLU HPRWLRQV ZLWK OHVV LQWHQVLW\ DQG WHQG WR
GRZQSOD\KRZWKH\DUHIHHOLQJ0HQWHQGWRKDYHDJUHDWHUFRQWURORYHUWKHLU
HPRWLRQVDQGZKDWWKH\GLVSOD\WRWKHZRUOGZKLFKLVSRVVLEO\GXHWRKDYLQJ
PRUHGLI¿FXOW\GLVSOD\LQJHPRWLRQVFRPSDUHGWRZRPHQ
7KHUDWLRQDOLW\RIEHKDYLRXURIRSSRVLWHVH[HVZKHQEX\LQJLQVXUDQFH
,QWKHQH[WTXHVWLRQWKHUHVSRQGHQWVZHUHDVNHGWRLPDJLQHDQRZQHUVKLS
RIDKRXVHLQZKLFKWKH\ZHUHOLYLQJIRU\HDUV7KH\ZHUHDOHUWHGIRUWKH
H[LVWHQFHRIDULVNRIÀRRGDFWLYLW\DQGZHUHUHFRPPHQGHGWREX\LQVXUDQFH
FRYHUDJHDJDLQVWVXFKHYHQWV,QVXUDQFHFRYHUDJHZDVFRQFOXGHGIRUDSHULRG
RI \HDUV ZLWK QR FODLP ÀRRG GXULQJ WKDW SHULRG7KH LQVXUDQFH SROLF\
H[SLUHVWKLV\HDU7KHDQQXDOFRVWRIWKLVSURGXFWLV¼DQGWKHUHVSRQGHQWV
VKRXOGGHFLGHZKHWKHUWKH\ZLOOFRQWLQXHWRSD\SUHPLXPVRUWKHFRQWUDFWZLOO
QRWEHUHQHZHG
)LJXUH
&DQFHOODWLRQRILQVXUDQFHSROLF\DIWHUDSHULRGRIQRFODLP
6RXUFHUHVXOWVRIWKHVXUYH\
7KH ¿JXUH VKRZV KRZ WKH UHVSRQGHQWV YRWHG IRU SDUWLFXODU RSWLRQ 7KH
FKDUWFOHDUO\VKRZVWKDWDJUHDWHUDYHUVLRQWRULVNHYHQWVLVUHODWHGWRZRPHQ
DQGLWZDVDOVRFRQ¿UPHGLQWKLVFDVH7KHSRVVLELOLW\RIH[WHQGLQJWKHSROLF\
(.2120,&.e52=+ď$'< – ECONOMIC REVIEW
VOLUME 45., 2/2016
LQGLFDWHGDERXWRIZRPHQ)RUPHQWKHQXPEHULVUHODWLYHO\ORZHU
PD\EH GXH WR WKH JUHDWHU SURSHQVLW\ IRU ULVN 7KH LQVXUDQFH SROLF\ ZRXOG
H[WHQGRQO\RIWKHWRWDOUHVSRQGHQWV%\VHOHFWLQJWKHVHFRQGRSWLRQ
PHQDJUHHGZLWKWKHVWDWHPHQWWKDWWKHIXUWKHUH[WHQVLRQRIWKHSROLF\LVDQ
XQQHFHVVDU\VWHS7KHUHDVRQIRUVXFKEHKDYLRXUPD\EHDOVRWKHIDFWWKDWWKH
LQVXUDQFHSURGXFWLVDVVRFLDWHGZLWKUHODWLYHO\KLJKFRVWV,QFDVHWKHLQVXUHG
HYHQW GRHV QRW RFFXU ZLWKLQ D IHZ \HDUV DV H[SHFWHG PHQ WHQG WR EH WKH
LQLWLDWRUVRISROLFLHVFDQFHOODWLRQVRUQRQUHQHZDORILQVXUDQFHSURWHFWLRQ,ID
SHUVRQSD\VSUHPLXPIRUDQXPEHURI\HDUVDQGQRLQVXUHGHYHQWKDVRFFXUUHG
LQVXUDQFHLVRIWHQFRQVLGHUHGDVDQXQQHFHVVDU\DQGXQSUR¿WDEOHLQYHVWPHQW
,IKHFDOFXODWHVWKHDPRXQWRIPRQH\VSHQWRQLQVXUDQFHSUHPLXPVGXULQJWKH
SHULRGWKHWRWDODPRXQWFDQEHUHODWLYHO\KLJKDQGFRXOGKDYHEHHQXVHGWR
¿QDQFHDQRWKHUJRRGVDQGVHUYLFHV,WVKRZVWKDWPDOHUHVSRQGHQWVUHÀHFWHG
EHKDYLRXUWKDWFDQEHFRQVLGHUHGDVLUUDWLRQDOJLYHQWKHIDFWXSWRRI
WKHP VDLG WKDW LQ WKH DEVHQFH RI WKH RFFXUUHQFH RI D QDWXUDO GLVDVWHU D IHZ
\HDUVDIWHUWKHFRQFOXVLRQRIWKHLQVXUDQFHFRQWUDFW7KHUHIRUHWKH\FRQVLGHU
WKHLQVXUDQFHWREHDQXQQHFHVVDU\LQYHVWPHQW$PRQJWKHIHPDOHSRSXODWLRQ
WKLVEHKDYLRXUZDVQRWFRQ¿UPHGGXHWRWKHIDFWWKDWZRPHQLQJHQHUDOWUHDW
WKHULVNHYHQWVPRUHFDUHIXOO\WKDQPHQ7KHODVWRSWLRQZDVDFDQFHOODWLRQ
RI LQVXUDQFH SROLF\ EHFDXVH RI DQ H[SHFWDWLRQ WKDW DIWHU WKH RFFXUUHQFH RI
QHJDWLYHHYHQWVWKHVWDWHJRYHUQPHQWZLOOJLYHDJJULHYHGFLWL]HQVDKHOSLQJ
KDQG 2QO\ D PLQLPXP RI UHVSRQGHQWV DJUHHG ZLWK WKLV FKRLFH DERXW RIZRPHQDQGRIPHQ%DVHGRQWKLVIDFWLWFDQEHFRQFOXGHGWKDWRXU
VDPSOHRISRSXODWLRQGRQRWH[SHFWDQ\VROLGDULW\DQGKHOSRIWKHVWDWHLQFDVH
RI RFFXUUHQFH RI QDWXUDO GLVDVWHUV7KH LQÀXHQFH RI JHQGHU RQ WKH GHFLVLRQ
WR WHUPLQDWH LQVXUDQFH SROLF\ LV VWDWLVWLFDO VLJQL¿FDQW DFFRUGLQJ WR WKH FKL
VTXDUH WHVW$W D VLJQL¿FDQFH OHYHO RI ZH UHMHFW WKH QXOO K\SRWKHVLV RI
WKH LQGHSHQGHQFH RI WKH JHQGHU DQG PHQWLRQHG EHKDYLRXU DQG DFFHSW WKH
DOWHUQDWLYHK\SRWKHVLVZKLFKWHOOVXVWKDWWKHUHLVFHUWDLQGHSHQGHQFH
7KHQH[WTXHVWLRQZDV³,I\RXKDGHYHUFRQFOXGHGHJWUDYHOLQVXUDQFHDQG
WKHUHZDVQRLQVXUHGHYHQWGXULQJ\RXUYDFDWLRQKDYH\RXKDGDIHHOLQJWKDW
WKHLQVXUDQFHZDVXQQHFHVVDU\DQGKDYH\RXUHJUHWWHGWKDW\RXSDLGLQVXUDQFH
SUHPLXPDQGWKHUHIRUHZDVWHG\RXUPRQH\"´5HJUHWWLQJWKHPRQH\VSHQWRQ
LQVXUDQFHFRYHUDJHFDQEHFRQVLGHUHGDVLUUDWLRQDOEHKDYLRXU,QVXUDQFHLVQRW
DQLQYHVWPHQWLWLVDPHWKRGRI¿QDQFLDOSURWHFWLRQLQFDVHRIDGYHUVHHYHQWV
,IWKHLQVXUHGHYHQWRFFXUUHGWKHLQVXUHGZLOOQHYHUEHULFKHUDIWHUUHFHLYLQJ
WKHFRPSHQVDWLRQIURPLQVXUDQFHFRPSDQ\FRPSDUHGWRKLV¿QDQFLDOVLWXDWLRQ
LI WKH LQVXUHG HYHQW KDV QRW RFFXUUHG ,Q WKLV TXHVWLRQ WKH LUUDWLRQDOLW\ RI
(.2120,&.e52=+ď$'< – ECONOMIC REVIEW
VOLUME 45., 2/2016
EHKDYLRXUZDVFRQ¿UPHGRQO\LQQHJOLJLEOHSRUWLRQRIVXUYH\HGDQGZHGLG
QRW¿QGDGLIIHUHQFHEHWZHHQPDOHDQGIHPDOHEHKDYLRXU
&RQFOXVLRQ
7KHSDSHUZDVDLPHGWREULQJYDULRXVQRQ¿QDQFLDODVSHFWVWKDWLQÀXHQFH
WKH EHKDYLRXU RI WKH GHPDQG IRU LQVXUDQFH WKDW LV WKRVH WKDW QHRFODVVLFDO
HFRQRPLFV GRHV QRW WDNH LQWR DFFRXQW 7KH UHDVRQ IRU QRW DOZD\V UDWLRQDO
EHKDYLRXU RQ WKH GHPDQG IRU LQVXUDQFH FRXOG EH LQFRPSOHWH LQIRUPDWLRQ
RI WKH EX\HU DQG DOVR HUURUV LQ WKH FRJQLWLYH DQG DQDO\WLFDO WKLQNLQJ $
VHHPLQJO\LUUDWLRQDOEHKDYLRXURIWKHGHPDQGIRULQVXUDQFHPD\DOVRDULVH
IURP SHRSOH¶V DWWHPSWV WR FRQWURO WKHLU HPRWLRQV VXFK DV DQ[LHW\ VDGQHVV
DQGIHDURIORVV1HRFODVVLFDOPRGHOVH[FOXGHWKHVHQRQ¿QDQFLDODWWULEXWHV
DIIHFWLQJWKHXWLOLW\IXQFWLRQRIDQLQGLYLGXDO2WKHUUHDVRQVZK\WKHDFWXDO
EHKDYLRXUGLIIHUVIURPWKHUHIHUHQFHPRGHOVDUHLPSHUIHFWLRQLQWKHFROOHFWLRQ
DQGSURFHVVLQJRIWKHQHFHVVDU\LQIRUPDWLRQDODFNRIXQGHUVWDQGLQJRIWKH
ULVNVHJXQGHUHVWLPDWLRQRIULVNWKHXVHRIHVWLPDWHVZKHQVHOHFWLQJDQG
DVVHVVLQJ ULVN RU XQZLOOLQJQHVV WR FRQVLGHU DOO WKH DOWHUQDWLYHV RIIHUHG$Q
LQGLYLGXDOZLOOQRWEHZLOOLQJWRVDFUL¿FHKLVRUKHUWLPHDQGHQHUJ\WRJDWKHU
LQIRUPDWLRQDERXWWKHULVNVDQGFRVWRILQVXUDQFHLIWKHSUREDELOLW\RIORVV
DFFRUGLQJWRKLPLVYHU\ORZLIWKHSRWHQWLDOORVVLVQHJOLJLEOHFRPSDUHGZLWK
LWVWRWDODVVHWVRULIWKHSUHPLXPZLOOEHVLJQL¿FDQWO\KLJKHUWKDQWKHH[SHFWHG
EHQH¿WV RI EX\LQJ LQVXUDQFH 7KH UHVXOWV RI WKH TXHVWLRQQDLUH FRQ¿UPHG
WKH SUHVHQFH RI QRQ¿QDQFLDO DWWULEXWHV LQ GHWHUPLQLQJ WKH GHPDQG LQ WKH
LQVXUDQFHPDUNHWLQ6ORYDNLD7KURXJKTXHVWLRQQDLUHZDVDOVRIRXQGWKDWWKH
UDWHRIWKHSUHVHQFHRILUUDWLRQDOEHKDYLRXUZDVGLIIHUHQWLQPHQDQGZRPHQ
:HFRQ¿UPHGWKHK\SRWKHVLVWKDWZRPHQDUHJHQHUDOO\PRUHDYHUVHWRULVN
WKDQPHQ,QFDVHRIZRPHQWKHUHKDVDOVREHHQFRQ¿UPHGWKDWWKHWHQGHQF\
WRULVN\EHKDYLRXULVGHFUHDVLQJZLWKDJH5LVNDYHUVLRQZDVDNH\LQFHQWLYH
WRSXUFKDVHLQVXUDQFHIRUERWKVH[HV)DFWRUVWKDWDIIHFWPRUHZRPHQZKHQ
EX\LQJLQVXUDQFHDUHDGYLFHVIURPIULHQGVDQGDFTXDLQWDQFHVDGYHUWLVLQJRI
WKH LQVXUDQFH FRPSDQ\ DQG HPRWLRQDO VWUHVV 0HQ DUH PRUH LQÀXHQFHG E\
WKH IDFW ZKHWKHU WKH\ KDYH SUHYLRXVO\ H[SHULHQFHG DQ XQLQVXUHG HYHQW EXW
DOVR ZKHWKHU WKH\ KDYH D SHUVRQDO UHODWLRQVKLS WR WKH REMHFW RI LQVXUDQFH
5HJDUGLQJWRWKHEHKDYLRXURIWKHGHPDQGPHQFOHDUO\VHHLQVXUDQFHDVDQ
LQYHVWPHQWLQDJUHDWHUH[WHQWDQGWHQGWRFDQFHORUQRWUHQHZWKHLQVXUDQFH
FRQWUDFWLIWKHLQVXUHGHYHQWGLGQRWRFFXUGXULQJWKHLQVXUHGSHULRG:RPHQ
DUHLQDPXFKJUHDWHUH[WHQWJXOOLEOHDQGLIWKHLUIULHQGLVVDWLV¿HGZLWKDQ
LQVXUDQFHSROLF\WKH\WHQGWRFRQFOXGHWKHVDPHLQVXUDQFHFRQWUDFWDQGGR
(.2120,&.e52=+ď$'< – ECONOMIC REVIEW
VOLUME 45., 2/2016
QRW REWDLQ DQ\ LQIRUPDWLRQ RU GHWDLOV DQG WKHUHIRUH FDQQRW YHULI\ ZKHWKHU
VXFKLQVXUDQFHLVVXLWDEOHIRUWKHP
References
>@ $5,(/<'3UHGLFWDEO\LUUDWLRQDO±WKHKLGGHQIRUFHVWKDWVKDSHRXUGHFLVLRQV+DUSHU
&ROOLQV3XEOLVKHUV,6%1
>@ $552:.8QFHUWDLQW\DQGWKHZHOIDUHHFRQRPLFVRIPHGLFDOFDUH,Q7KH$PHULFDQ
(FRQRPLF5HYLHZ9RO/,,,1R
>@ &$0(5(5&7KHHIIHFWVRI¿QDQFLDOLQFHQWLYHVLQH[SHULPHQWV$UHYLHZDQGFDSLWDO
ODERUSURGXFWLRQIUDPHZRUN,Q-RXUQDORI5LVNDQG8QFHUWDLQW\9ROSS
௅
>@ &877(5 6 9XOQHUDELOLW\ WR HQYLURQPHQWDO KD]DUGV ,Q Progress in Human
*HRJUDSK\9ROSS௅
>@ '$%%6-0±'$%%60*+HURHVURJXHVDQGORYHUV7HVWRVWHURQHDQGEHKDYLRU
1HZ<RUN1<86SS
>@ (+5/,&+,±%(&.(5*60DUNHWLQVXUDQFHVHOILQVXUDQFHDQGVHOISURWHFWLRQ
,Q7KH-RXUQDORI3ROLWLFDO(FRQRP\SS௅
>@ +È/(.0(,6(1+$8(5*'HPRJUDSK\RIULVNDYHUVLRQ,Q-RXUQDORI5LVN
DQG,QVXUDQFH9ROSS±
>@ .$+1(0$1'79(56.<$3URVSHFW7KHRU\$Q$QDO\VLVRI'HFLVLRQXQGHU
5LVN,Q(FRQRPHWULFD9ROSS௅
>@ .$+1(0$1 ' ± .1(76&+ - ± 7+$/(5 5 7KH (QGRZPHQW (IIHFW /RVV
$YHUVLRQDQG6WDWXV4XR%LDV,Q-RXUQDORI(FRQRPLF3HUVSHFWLYHV9RO,VVXH
SS௅
>@ .815(87+(5+0LWLJDWLQJ'LVDVWHU/RVVHVWKURXJK,QVXUDQFH,Q-RXUQDORI5LVN
DQG8QFHUWDLQW\9ROSS௅,661
>@ .815(87+(5+±3$8/<0,QVXUDQFH'HFLVLRQ0DNLQJDQG0DUNHW%HKDYLRU
,Q)RXQGDWLRQVDQG7UHQGVLQ0LFURHFRQRPLFV9RO±
>@ .815(87+(5+&±+6((&.7KHDIIHFWLRQHIIHFWLQLQVXUDQFHGHFLVLRQV,Q
-RXUQDORI5LVNDQG8QFHUWDLQW\SS௅
>@ .815(87+(5+&±3$8/<09±0F02552:6,QVXUDQFHDQGEHKDYLRUDO
HFRQRPLFV LPSURYLQJ GHFLVLRQV LQ WKH PRVW PLVXQGHUVWRRG LQGXVWU\ &DPEULGJH
8QLYHUVLW\3UHVV
>@ 0F67$<-5±'81/$35(0DOH)HPDOH'LIIHUHQFHVLQ&RQFHUQIRU(QYLURQPHQWDO
(.2120,&.e52=+ď$'< – ECONOMIC REVIEW
VOLUME 45., 2/2016
4XDOLW\,Q,QWHUQDWLRQDO-RXUQDORI:RPHQ¶V6WXGLHV9ROSS௅
>@ 3,/&+ & 0XåL D åHQ\ SUL LQYHVWRYiQt ,QYHVWPHQW E\ PHQ DQG ZRPHQ ,Q )25
FIN2GERUQêPHVDþQtNSUH¿QDQFLHDLQYHVWRYDQLH%UDWLVODYD)LQ6WDU,661
6HSWHPEHU
>@ 5$%,103V\FKRORJ\DQGHFRQRPLFV,Q-RXUQDORIHFRQRPLFOLWHUDWXUHSS
௅
>@ 6,021+$0DNLQJPDQDJHPHQWGHFLVLRQV7KHUROHRILQWXLWLRQDQGHPRWLRQ,Q
7KH$FDGHP\RI0DQDJHPHQW([HFXWLYHSS௅
>@ 6(:(//0%HKDYLRXUDO)LQDQFH8QLYHUVLW\RI&DPEULGJH
>@ 6&+,1'/(5 5 &RQVXPHU 0RWLYDWLRQ IRU 3XUFKDVLQJ /RZ'HGXFWLEOH ,QVXUDQFH
,Q0DUNHWLQJDQG3XEOLF3ROLF\&RQIHUHQFH3URFHHGLQJV9RO'-5LQJROGHG
&KLFDJR,/$PHULFDQ0DUNHWLQJ$VVRFLDWLRQSS௅
>@ 6&+:$5&= ' ,QVXUDQFH 'HPDQG $QRPDOLHV DQG 5HJXODWLRQ ,Q -RXUQDO RI
&RQVXPHU$IIDLUV)DOO
>@ 6/29,&3±:(%(5(3HUFHSWLRQRI5LVN3RVHGE\([WUHPH(YHQWV,Q&RQIHUHQFH
³5LVN0DQDJHPHQWVWUDWHJLHVLQDQ8QFHUWDLQ:RUOG´$SULO௅
>@ 67(,1%(5* / 5LVN 7DNLQJ LQ$GROHVFHQFH ± 1HZ 3HUVSHFWLYHV )URP %UDLQ DQG
%HKDYLRUDO6FLHQFH,Q&XUUHQWGLUHFWLRQVLQSV\FKRORJLFDOVFLHQFHSS௅
>@ 6<'125-6ZHDWLQJWKH6PDOO6WXII'HPDQGIRU/RZ'HGXFWLEOHVLQ+RPHRZQHUV
,QVXUDQFH8QLYHUVLW\RI&DOLIRUQLD%HUNHOH\
>@ â867(.29È0,UDFLRQiOQHVSUiYDQLHVSRWUHELWHĐRYQDVORYHQVNRPSRLVWQRPWUKX
,UUDWLRQDOFRQVXPHUEHKDYLRXURQWKH6ORYDNLQVXUDQFHPDUNHW%DFKHORUWKHVLV(NRQRPLFNi
XQLYHU]LWDY%UDWLVODYH&RGHRIWKHVLVFGDIEEGFFG
>@ :(63(6(±6&+8/0$1&0DOHDQGURSDXVHP\WKUHDOLW\DQGWUHDWPHQW,Q
,QWHUQDWLRQDO-RXUQDORI,PSRWHQFH5HVHDUFK9ROSS±
>@ =(/,=(59$+XPDQYDOXHVDQGWKHPDUNHW7KHFDVHRIOLIHLQVXUDQFHDQGGHDWKLQ
WKFHQWXU\$PHULFD,Q$PHULFDQMRXUQDORIVRFLRORJ\SS௅
>@ =:(,)(/ 3 ± (,6(1 5 ,QVXUDQFH (FRQRPLFV 6SULQJHU +HLGHOEHUJ 'RUGUHFKW
/RQGRQ1HZ<RUN