THE iNDEr.JENDENT AND NON-PARTISAN SURVEY
OF PUBliC OPI~~ION ESTABLISHED IN 1947 AS
THE CALIFORNIA POLL BY MERVIN FIELD
234 Front Street
Sail Francisco, C,t;" 94111
(,,15) 39:2-5763 FAX (415) 434254i
COPYRIGHT 1992 By THE FIELD INSTITUTE. FOR PUBLICATION By SUBSCRIBERS ONLY.
Release Date:
FridaYt September 18 t 1992
Release #1642
CLINTON LEADS BUSH ON MOST
ISSUES WHICH VOTERS RATE VERY
IMPORTANT. CLINTON AHEAD IN MOST
AREAS OF THE STATE AND AMONG
MOST DEMDGRAPHIC SUB-GROUPS.
By Mervin Field and Mark DiCamillo
IMPORTANT: Contract for this service is
subject to revocation if publication or
broadcast takes place before release date or
if contents are divulged to persons outside
of subscriber staff prior to release time.
(lSSN 0195-4520)
When eleven issues which voters see as being very important in the Presidential race are related to
candidate preferences, Bill Clinton leads George Bush in ten of them.
Voters who attach high importance to such issues as the economy, the federal budget deficit, health
care, unemployment, creating more jobs in new industries, protecting the environment, U.S. Supreme
Court appointments and abortion prefer Clinton over Bush by 19 points or more.
Even among voters who say foreign policy issues are very important, an area where Bush has had
considernble experience, there is a virtual even split in candidate preference. Only among voters who
rate "family values" as being a very important issue is Bush preferred.
The table below reports the fmdings from the latest statewide Field Poll survey completed September
8-15. As reported yesterday, Clinton (49%) now holds a nineteen-point lead over Bush (30%) and
Perot (14%) in overall preferences among Californians likely to vote in this year's general election.
'ce i 9':? 2S an Independent and impartial public opinion news service. The Po!1
nc"
non partisan organization devoted to the study of public opinion and
is :!sdicai:"d to encouraging the widest possible dissemination of its survey
·---~~~:,tiJtf::; f"~cej\f(3S support from acaderrlic, gov8rnnH~r1t. nledia, and private sources.
';0
The Field Poll
Friday, September 18, 1992
#1642
Page 2
Candidate Preference
Clinton
Undecided
49%
30
14
7
The economy (94 %)
50%
29
14
7
The federal budget deficit (83 %)
48%
29
15
8
Health care (77 %)
54%
25
14
7
Taxes (75%)
46%
33
14
7
Unemployment (72 %)
55%
24
14
7
Creating more jobs
in new industries (72 %)
48%
25
22
5
Protecting the environment (62 %)
60%
23
10
7
Supreme Court justice
appointments (61 %)
54%
29
12
5
Foreign policy issues (55 %)
42%
38
14
6
Abortion (54 %)
59%
25
9
7
Family values (40%)
35%
43
14
8
Statewide
Voters who consider this issue
"very important" *
>I<
The percentage in brackets listed with each issue is the proportion of all voters who view the issue as being
·very important·
The Field Poll
Friday, September 18, 1992
#1642
Page 3
Demop-aphic Breakdowns
Among Democratic voters likely to vote on November 3, Clinton leads Bush 78% to 6%. Bush does
not have a comparable bulge in support among Republicans - the President leads the Arkansas
Governor by a smaller 58% to 18% ratio among GOP voters.
One of the segments which formed an essential part of the winning constituency in the 1988, 1984 and
1980 Presidential elections of Ronald Reagan and George Bush was the so-ealled "Reagan / Bush
Democrats" - traditionally Democratic voters who crossed over to vote for the Republican candidate
in those elections. In this survey most (55 %) of those Democrats who voted for Reagan or Bush in the
past appear poised to "come home" to the Democratic nominee this year. Of the remainder, more
prefer Perot (22 %) than Bush (19 %).
Clinton leads in both Southern and Northern California, although in the North (which accounts for 44%
of all likely voters) Clinton's lead is 59% to 22 %, and includes an overwhelming 71 % to 14% lead in
the nine-county San Francisco Bay Area. Clinton also leads in Los Angeles County and the Central
Valley, but trails in the San Diego / Orange County region which provided Bush and Reagan with huge
majorities of votes in the last three Presidential elections.
The Arkansas Governor has big leads in the vote-heavy urban and suburban areas of the state, which
comprise 85 % of the state. Only in the rural areas of California is Bush competitive with Clinton.
There appears to be no discernible "gender gap" in preferences between Clinton and Bush, although
men are somewhat more likely to support Perot than women. All voter subgroups under the age of 60
are currently breaking heavily in favor of Clinton, while older voters give Bush a slight edge.
White/Anglo voters currently divide 45% to 33% in Clinton's favor. Voters who are either Hispanic
or black heavily support Clinton. Protestant voters are dividing evenly between Clinton and Bush.
Catholics, voters of other religious denominations and those with no religious preference appear heavily
committed to Clinton.
Clinton's lead over Bush is also greater among voters with higher levels of educational attainment.
Field Poll
September 18, 1992
*
"'*
#1642
Page 4
Perot
Undecided
Clinton
Bush
Statewide
49%
30
14
7
Southern California
Northern California
43%
59%
36
22
15
12
6
7
Los Angeles
San Diego J Orange
Central Valley *
San Francisco Bay Area
53%
30%
42%
71%
30
40
31
14
12
19
19
9
5
11
8
6
Urban
Suburban
Rural *
56%
50%
36%
27
29
38
12
14
17
5
7
9
Democrats
Democrats who voted for
Bush or Reagan in '84 or '88
Republicans
Others '"
77%
7
13
3
55%
18%
52%
19
58
14
22
13
19
4
11
15
Men
Women
47%
51 %
28
31
18
10
7
8
18-29
30-39
40-49
50-59 *
60 or older
54%
51%
58%
47%
37%
19
28
32
44
23
12
15
14
6
4
9
3
7
13
White (non-Hispanic)
Hispanic *
Black *
45%
63%
83%
33
19
8
14
17
9
8
1
**
Protestant
Catholic
Other *
No religious preference
39%
48%
67%
66%
38
29
16
20
15
15
9
11
8
8
8
3
High school graduate or less
Some college J trade school
College graduate
Post-graduate work
43%
46%
52%
63%
31
30
30
27
19
17
9
5
7
7
9
5
*
Relatively small bases
less than ~ of 1 %
-30­
24
The Field Poll
Friday, September 18, 1992
#1642
Page 5
Information About the Survey
Sample Details
The survey was conducted September 8-15, 1992 among a random statewide sample of 624 registered
voters considered likely to vote in this year's general election. Interviewing was conducted in either
English or Spanish by telephone using random digit dialing methods. The sample sizes of subgroups
reported in this release are as follows: Southern California (348), Northern California (273), Los
Angeles (151), San Diego I Orange (109), Central Valley (89), San Francisco Bay Area (149), urban
(181), suburban (350), rural (91), Democrats (297), Reagan-Bush Democrats (85), Republicans (267)
others (60), men (295), women (329), 18-29 (104), 30-39 (172), 40-49 (135), 50-59 (72), 60 or older
(137), white non-Hispanic (499), Hispanic (59), Black (31), Protestant (283), Catholic (138), other (64),
no religious prefereflce (131), Wgh school graduate or less (lAO), some: college! trade school (269),
college graduate (106) and post-graduate work (109).
Estimates of sampling error relate to sample size. According to statistical theory 95 % of the time the
overall likely voter sample would be accurate within ±4.1 percentage points. Sampling error estimates
from subgroups of the overall population would be larger. There are many possible sources of error
in any survey other than sampling variability. Different results could occur because of differences in
question wording, sequencing or through undetected errors in sampling, interviewing or data processing.
Every effort was made to minimize such non-sampling errors.
Questions Asked
If the Presidential election were held today and the choices were Republican George Bush, Democrat
Bill Clinton, and independent Ross Perot, who would you vote for?
I am going to read various issues that are being discussed in this year's Presidential election. For each,
please tell me how important it will be to you when deciding who to vote for in the November
Presidential elections. How important is a candidate's views on
- very important,
somewhat important, or not too important? (SEE RELEASE FOR ITEMS READ)