DRAFT SEVENTH
POWER PLAN
Why Do We Have Regional
Power Planning?
 Mistakes in power planning have cost the region
billions of dollars, or thousands of dollars for the
average regional consumer of electricity
 Hydrothermal Power Project
 Washington Public Power Supply Service
 California Energy Crisis
 Bonneville Power Administration has significant
influence on what the citizens of the region pay for
power
 Wholesale rates to preference customers
 Residential exchange for customers of private utilities
 The Power Plan gives the states a voice in the costs
Bonneville incurs for new resources
2
Power Plan Requirements
 Ensure a reliable & economical regional power
system over the next 20 years
 Forecast electricity demand; electricity &
natural gas prices
 Identify resource strategy
 Revise every five years
 Guide Bonneville Power Administration’s
resource decision-making
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7th Plan Resource Portfolio
Energy
Cumulative Resource Development
(Average Megawatts)
6,000
Wind
5,000
Solar
4,000
Conservation
Natural Gas
3,000
2,000
1,000
2015
2020
2025
4
2030
2035
7th Plan Resource Portfolio
Winter Capacity
Cumulative Resource Development
(Megawatts)
14,000
Renewable (Wind & Solar PV)
Thermal (Natural Gas)
12,000
Demand Response
10,000
Conservation
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
2015
2020
2025
5
2030
2035
PNW Loads (Average Megawatts)
Expected Decline in Load after
Energy Efficiency
30,000
25,000
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
2016
2021
2026
2031
Load Reduction from Federal Standards Adopted Since 6th Plan
Draft 7th Plan Energy Efficiency Goal
Net Load After Energy Efficiency
Natural Gas Generation Adapts to
CO2 Reduction Policies
Existing Gas Dispatch (aMW)
3,000
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
2015
2020
No Coal Plan Retirement
2025
Existing Policy
7
2030
Maximum CO2 Reduction
2035
RPS at 35%
Annual Average CO2 Emissions (MMTE)
EPA Carbon Dioxide Emission
Regulations Can Be Met Regionally
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
2015
2020
2025
2030
No Coal Retirement
Existing Policy
Social Cost of Carbon - Mid-Range
Maximum CO2 Reduction
RPS at 35%
EPA Emissions Limits
8
2035
Carbon Dioxide Emissions in
2035 by Scenario
55
Average CO2 Emissions 2000-2012
45
No Coal Retirements*
34
Existing Policy
29
Renewable Portfolio Standard at 35%
24
Carbon Cost Risk
20
Social Cost of Carbon: Mid-Range
$20 billion
18
Social Cost of Carbon: High
12
Maximum Carbon Reduction - Existing Technology
-
20
40
CO2 Emissions in 2035 (MMTE)
*Scenario assumes Centralia, Boardman and North Valmy are not retired.
9
$34 billion
60
Resource Strategy Summary
 Continue the regional legacy of aggressively
acquiring energy efficiency
 Expand the use of demand response in the
region to mitigate against potential capacity
shortfalls
 Research solutions that allow renewable
resources to supply dependable capacity for
winter peak electricity needs
 Improve the use of existing resources to avoid
the expense of building new resources
unnecessarily
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Key Findings
 Energy Efficiency and demand response
meet nearly all energy and capacity needs
 Regional power system CO2 emissions can
be reduced by 80 percent with existing
technology
 Increasing RPS produces the smallest CO2
emissions reductions and is the highest cost
emissions reduction resource strategy
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Backup Slides
12
All Resource Cost – Energy
$160
Fuel + Transmission
O&M + Property Taxes + Insurance
Capital
Real Levelized Cost
(2012$/MWh)
$140
$120
$100
$80
$60
$40
$20
$0
Energy
Efficiency
(Average
Cost w/
T&D
Credit)
Energy Solar PV - Natural
Efficiency Low Cost Gas CCCT
(Average S. ID
Adv1
Cost w/o
T&D
Credit)
Natural Solar PV - Wind -MT
S. ID
w/ new
Gas transm.
CCCT
Adv2
13
Wind MT w/
Transm.
Upgrade
Wind - Natural
Gas Colum.
Basin Frame GT
East
Solar PV- Natural
Gas S. ID w/
Transm. Recip
Expan. Engine
East
Natural
Gas Aero GT
East
All Resource Cost – Peak Capacity
Real Levelized Fixed Cost
(2012$/KW-year)
$400
$350
$300
$250
Fuel + Transmission
O&M + Property Taxes + Insurance
Capital
$200
$150
$100
$50
$0
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