Candidate Countries Eurobarometer European Commission EUROBAROMETER 2004.1 PUBLIC OPINION IN THE CANDIDATE COUNTRIES Fieldwork: February - March 2004 Publication: July 2004 Candidate Countries Eurobarometer 2004.1 - Magyar Gallup Intézet NATIONAL REPORT EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ESTONIA This survey was requested and coordinated by the Directorate General Press and Communication This document does not represent the point of view of the European Commission. The interpretations and opinions contained in it are solely those of the authors. CANDIDATE COUNTRIES EUROBAROMETER 2004.1 – NATIONAL REPORT, ESTONIA Executive Summary The Eurobarometer of the candidate countries (CC-EB) collects information of societies, which should become the members of the European Union in such way what is completely comparable with standard Eurobarometer. CC-EB continually collects the information about supporting the membership in every country and perpetuates the attitudes connected with the European Union. The experiences of living in Estonia The present summary gives a review of the research carried out in February-March 2004 in all 13-candidate and accrued countries as Bulgaria, Cyprus, Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Malta, Poland, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, and Turkey. The specification of the place of Estonia is not very simple because it is determinate by long-time and short time historical experiences and by its role among the other countries. The very important factor is the actual income of the inhabitants what specifies in large amounts the entity of the future expectations. Estonia is the smallest of the countries that joined the European Union on the 1-st of May in 2004 and by people’s opinion also the most vulnerable. Estonia has been occupied for centuries and that experience makes Estonians to meet new challenges with some prudence and scepticism, but at the same time with great hopefulness. As in Estonia live a great number of stateless people and almost the same number of citizens of foreign countries (like Russia, Ukraine, Belarus, and the citizens of other countries) the present case gives the very important nuance to the nature of the public opinion. The society of Estonia, in comparison to other countries that joined the European Union in May, has passed through the most dramatic economic reformation, which on the one hand has been served as a basis of the economical success of Estonia but on the other hand has raised great pressures and tiredness in society. The mentioned circumstances are in great amount the important factors to clear up the development trends of the public opinion of Estonia. Contentment with different areas of life The Estonian inhabitant’s evaluation of the whole of their life after the following 12 months turned 5 percentage points negative compared with the research in autumn 2003. 25% of the respondents look optimistically to the future, 23% pessimistically. The same change took place also in other candidate countries. The analyses of the Estonian database showed that the higher is the average income of the household the more optimistically the people look into the future. Taken in age groups the most optimistic are the young people in the age of 20-29 (47% of them hope that it gets better), a little lesser hope is shown out among the age group of 15-19 (43%). With rising the age the amount of the optimists grows less, for example among the people over 60 it is only 10%. The people who are living in the country compared with the ones living in towns believe more that the future is going to be better (25% from town people believe it and 30% from country people). The Estonians are more optimistic than non-Estonians (28% of Estonians and 23% of non-Estonians believe that the life in generally is going to be better). Very large differences appear between the citizens of the Estonian Republic and the stateless people if predicting the life in the near future. 29% of the citizens believe that the life is going to be better but at the same time only 17% of the stateless believe the same. The prognosis of the poorer, elder, non-Estonians, the persons without citizenship and the persons living in towns are more pessimistic compared with the other groups. SAAR POLL LTD in association with The Gallup Organization, Hungary 2 • • • • • • • CANDIDATE COUNTRIES EUROBAROMETER 2004.1 – NATIONAL REPORT, ESTONIA The different opinions about the life in general during the next 12 months in different socialdemographic groups characterize also the other opinions that people think about different spheres of life. It can be the evaluation of the state of economy in Estonia (22% thinks that it is improving), the economical situation of the household (19% believes that it is improving), the employment rate (17% believes that it is going better) and the working situation of the respondent (17% sees the improvement after a year). The prognosis of the economic situation of their household after 12 months reflects exactly the typical attitude of Estonians during the past few years – people are more pessimistic about the economic prognosis of their household than they are about the economic advancement of the whole Republic of Estonia. Due to the present research 25% of the inhabitants predict that the state of economy in Estonia is going to be on the rise, the improvement of the economic situation of their household is predicted by 23% of the population of Estonia. The last indicator is far higher than in most of the new member countries (the average is 15%), but it still remains behind the average of the old members of the European Union. In spite of such a positive background it must be said that the number of these people who see the economic situation of their household to go worse (27%) is larger than the number of those who find the situation to be on the rise (19%). That kind of tendency is dominant in most of the new member countries (on an average 39% sees the economic situation of their household going to be worse). The majority part of the residents, both in old and in new member countries, is on the position that nothing is going to change and everything is going to stay the same way. The problems met by the inhabitants of Estonia The problems that the Estonian society has met since 1991 have acquired the different importance in different periods. For quite a long time the most mentioned problems were pensions, health service, and the general economic problems. With switchover to market economy the bottlenecks connected with economy have started to play the main role. If we compare the structure of the problems in different countries we will see that the essence of seeing the problems is the same but it is possible to assert many essential differences. Although the unemployment has been noted as the most serious problem almost in every country we cannot miss the fact that in Estonia the problem has been mentioned the least. In the countries of EU-15 44% of the respondents have mentioned that problem, in NMS-10 61% and in Estonia 41%. Estonia is distinguished also by the fact that compared to other state groups most of the respondents mention the price increase, inflation – 37% (EU-15 – 19%, NMS-10 – 15%), criminality – 37% (EU-15 – 28%, NMS-10 – 29%), pensions – 14% (only in Latvia the given percentage is higher – 17%). The main problems in Estonia: Unemployment Price increase Criminality The state of economy Health service 41% of the respondents 37% 36% 25% 18% As for the opinion of the Estonian population concerning the whole national economy it could be said that in principal details the evaluations of economy coincide with the evaluations of their whole life. After the Euro referendum the evaluation of the whole economic situation has become less hopeful. For example in autumn of 2002 about 30% of the respondents thought that the state of economy is going to improve, a year later the amount of those had fallen to 25% and in 2004 the amount of those people was only 22%. The conception that the amount of stability will decrease and the society has preceded into the new and important period of chances has deepened. SAAR POLL LTD in association with The Gallup Organization, Hungary 3 • • • • • • • CANDIDATE COUNTRIES EUROBAROMETER 2004.1 – NATIONAL REPORT, ESTONIA It is quite logical to expect that if predicting the near future of their household people be usually on the same position as they were when they gave their opinion about the economy and the life of Estonia. The database shows that tendency quite clearly. In autumn in 2002 there were 17% of those who thought that life is getting worse, in 2004 the number of them has grown to 27%. The increase was 10 percentage points. The number of those who were optimistic decreased 6 percentage points, from 25% to 19%. Question: If you compare your present situation with the situation 5 years ago has it got better, stayed the same or got worse? The evaluation of their situation in Estonia is almost the most optimistic compared with the other countries. It does not make any difference which average data of what country is taken into account, (EU-25, EU-15, NMS-10) the Estonians’ evaluation to the past 5 years is the best. Confidence in different institutions The institutions that have got the greatest confidence in Estonia are television, the radio and the defence army. The countries of NMS-10 trust the same institutions although the confidence level is much lower. If the given data is compared with the average of EU-25 it is seen that besides the radio and the defence army they seem to appreciate also police and charity organizations. In Estonia and in NMS-10 countries police is trusted much lesser, especially in new member countries. Compared to the other countries it can be said that Estonia is also remarkable because of its very high rate given to the government (45% trusts), especially as taken in NMS-10 context (17% trusts). Confidence into the European Union is the lowest among the Estonian citizens compared to the other countries. The population of Estonia compared to the other countries tends to be similar in confidence into different institutions rather to EU-25 than to NMS-10. The similarity reflects in evaluating the following institutions as law, trade unions, parliament, and parties. The great difference in confidence level is in evaluating the following instances as television (Estonia – 75%, EU-25 – 54%), police (Estonia – 47%, EU-25 – 61%) and charity organizations (Estonia 48%, EU-25 – 59%). If comparing which is the average confidence rate given by different states we can see that in Estonia the institution gets on an average 46% of confidence, NMS-10 – 37%, EU-25 – 44%. So it can be said that the population of Estonia trusts the institutions more than the other state groups, and the new member countries give the least confidence to the institutions. The confidence towards different institutions is directly connected with the problem of trusting the political system. The trustworthiness of the government of Estonia has decreased during the last two researches. It is not unusual, because only in April of 2003 after the election of the State Assembly the new government, who had the great trust of the electors, started to reign. While starting functioning the confidence of the government always decreases. If the present government had 53% of the support of the electors when started, so a year later it has fallen to 45%. The same trend lies in trusting the State Assembly, when started the number of confidence was 43%, but in spring 2004 35%. The confidence towards the parties is traditionally low even though the confidence towards parties has developed the same way as the confidence towards the government and the State Assembly. The highest rate was achieved during the elections (28% trusted it) later it has decreased somewhat. During the questioning in spring 2004 only 30% of the responders were satisfied with the development of the democracy in Estonia. It was the lowest index number during the last three years. 65% were not satisfied with it. In new member countries the contentment is only 24% taken on an average, but in old member countries of the European Union the index number is 56%. SAAR POLL LTD in association with The Gallup Organization, Hungary 4 • • • • • • • CANDIDATE COUNTRIES EUROBAROMETER 2004.1 – NATIONAL REPORT, ESTONIA Information about the European Union The knowledge about the European Union is not very high among the population of Estonia. The critical attitude to their knowledge and information shows it well. For example if we sum up the 3 outermost scale points on the 10 point scale (1,2,3) that show the very little level of knowledge we will see that there are 34% of people whose knowledge is very low, in new member countries it is 31% on an average and in the whole European Union (25) 33%. So the self-appraisal to the knowledge of the average citizen of Estonia is not much lower than in other countries. On the other hand there are not so much those people in Estonia who consider that they know a lot about the European Union (summed up the scale points 10, 9, 8, 7). The present index number is the lowest in Estonia (12%), NMS-10 it is 2 percentages higher (14%) and in EU-25 – 16%. All in all the knowledge of Estonian people is lower than the average knowledge by their own self-appraisal. In Estonia the self-appraisal of a person depends a lot on the amount of his/hers income. The greatest is the income of the respondent the more resolutely he claims that he knows about the European Union more than other people do. Lets take the percentage of these people who do not know almost anything about the European Union (scale points 1-3). In the group with the lowest income the amount of those who are less informed is 45%, in the group of the wealthiest it is only 14%. It is possible to talk about the same tendency if we look the amount of well-informed people in different income-groups. The mentioned connections are caused by the different economic situations of different people that determine the access to various sources of information. The poor have fewer possibilities to read newspapers and other publications due to their high price. If taking by different groups the most informed are the people between 20-29, the citizens of Estonia, people living in towns and Estonians by nationality. The trivial facts about the European Union: the real level of knowledge The real knowledge of the Estonian inhabitants about the European Union is not very good. The results of the research show that the information that is possible to get through everyday experiences and what the person can meet in his life (for example the celebration of some holidays, seeing symbols etc.) is also well known to people. It appears for example in knowing the trivial facts about the European Union. In previous case it can be proved that the knowledge of Estonian people is not lower than the knowledge of the people of other countries. The knowledge of symbols and sometimes the knowing of facts is much more higher than the knowledge about the operating mechanisms of the European Union. For example straight before the elections to the European Parliament only 39% of the Estonian inhabitants knew that the members of the parliament are elected directly. It rises a question what causes such a low knowledge. One of the important reasons is the great amount of non-citizens in Estonia who do not take part in these elections and so they are not interested in that theme. Consequently their whole knowledge about the European Union is lower. The Estonian respondents could give the right answer only to 3,75 from 10 questions. The average number of knowledge in new member countries was 4,1 right answers from 10. Information about the enlargement Generally it can be said that the population of Estonia do not valuate their knowledge about the enlargement of the European Union very high. Only 32% of the respondents said that they are well informed or very well informed about that process. That index number is lower than in new member countries in an average (38%), but little higher than in EU-15 (29%). The people of the neighbour countries, Latvia (40%) and Lithuania (41%), feel themselves more informed than Estonian people. SAAR POLL LTD in association with The Gallup Organization, Hungary 5 • • • • • • • CANDIDATE COUNTRIES EUROBAROMETER 2004.1 – NATIONAL REPORT, ESTONIA The popular information sources about the European Union 11% of the Estonian population is not interested in information about the European Union. That index number is a bit higher than in other new member countries (10%), but the same as in EU15 and EU-25. The rest of the population of Estonia is interested to get that additional information. The most important information sources where the Estonian people want to get information about the European Union are first of all the electronic media, television – 73%, radio 56%, and daily newspapers – 42%. Plenty important are also the discussions and debates with relatives and friends (25%). If we compare the priorities of Estonia with the priorities of other countries it is not possible to talk about great differences. Still we can talk about one special aspect connected with one information source that is different in Estonia. In Estonia we can say that the Internet is much more important source than in any other country. In Estonia it is preferred by 25% of the respondents, in new members of the European Union only by 18% and in EU-15 countries by 16% of people. In that sphere the differences are quite large. It can be explained with the matter that the Internet has spread very widely in Estonia. For example in 2004 46% of the grown-up persons have an access to the Internet. Estonia has reached the good distribution of Internet with its official and private programs and it has become the very important channel to get information about the European Union. The really weak knowledge of Estonian people indicates to the fact that the web pages about the European Union are not such attractive yet that people want to approach to them. The subject-matter of the European union is important to Estonian inhabitants because the amount of those who found that there has been talked about it too little (26%) is twice bigger than the amount of those who say that it has been spoken about too much already (13%). The insufficiency of information about the European Union is the same among the population of the 15 countries of the European Union (too little refection 42%) and among the new members (37% on an average). If examining the questioning from the point of view of the dominating aspect then 51% in Estonia think that the amount of information in media is in right capacity. In NMS-10 the index number is 43% and in EU-15 - 42%. The institutions of the European Union In Estonia there are three most well known institutions of the European Union, which are the European Parliament (87%), the European Commission (74%) and the European Central Bank. Beside all the other institutions that people know they also recognize their important role. As regards the confidence we can say that it is much lower than the importance of their role or their reputation. The confidence of the European Central Bank is proportionally lower compared with the confidence of the other institutions. The less known are the following institutions: European Court of Auditors (24%), the Committee of the Regions of the European Union (26%), the European Ombudsman (31%) and the European Economic Interest Grouping (32%). With less known institutions the definition of their role is also smaller and due to that the confidence less. SAAR POLL LTD in association with The Gallup Organization, Hungary 6 • • • • • • • CANDIDATE COUNTRIES EUROBAROMETER 2004.1 – NATIONAL REPORT, ESTONIA Supporting the membership of the European Union In spring 2004 the Eurobarometer showed that the greatest support to the European Union among the new member states was in Lithuania (52% said that it is good to be the member of EU), the next was Malta (50%). 42% of the population of Poland and Malta supported the membership, 41% of Czech Republic, 40% of the population of Slovenia, 33% of Latvia and 31% of Estonia. Estonia has played the role of the so-called red lantern during the long years with its little support to the Union. Comparing the average support of NMS-10, which is 43%, and of EU15 that is 48% we can see that the index number of Estonia is much more smaller. Changes in supporting the membership of the European Union Looking back to the five year ago trend in question if joining the European Union is a bad or a good thing it is possible to talk about the following changes. If we take into account the benchmarks of the measurement, the years of 1999 and 2004, it could be seen that the support of NMS-10 has fallen from 47% to 43%. That kind of change has not taken place in Estonia. What touches the negative evaluation that the membership is a bad thing it can be said that the amount of the supporters of that kind of opinion has increased during the last 5 years also in Estonia. In 1999 the number of those people was 13%, in spring 2004 it was already 21%. There has been a consistent slow rise. The campaign before the Euro referendum was quite efficient because the concept of the part of the population who though that joining the European Union is a good thing for Estonia increased from 31% to 38% with some months in 2003 during the spring summer and autumn and achieved the highest rate in that category during the last 5 years. The last measuring showed that the support has again fallen to the usual level. The expected advantages of membership Joining the European Union means always an analysis from the aspect what kinds of advantages the state gets from that step. The attitude of Estonian people has always been one of the most sceptical among the other new member states. The Euro referendum has not changed that attitude in principal. The greatest amount of the Euro referendums in the candidate states took place from spring to autumn in 2003. Because of that the attitude towards the European Union of the NMS-10 countries was the most positive of that time. That happened mostly due to the great Euro Campaign. The inhabitants of Estonia left untouched of that campaign because our referendum took place in September. The influence of the advertising campaign and the discussion was measured by CC-EB in autumn 2003 and it showed that the number of people who thought that Estonia can benefit by joining the Union had raised if compared to the spring indicators: rise from 42% to 45%. The last index number is the highest of the last five years. After the Euro referendum the number of people who expected the advantages decreased a lot. The same tendency took place also in Estonia. The number of optimists fell from 45% to 41% in spring 2004. The bigger change took place in new member countries – from the top amount of people which was 64%, who expected the benefit by joining the European Union on the days of Euro referendum the number decreased to 52% in spring 2004. The population of Estonia and of other member countries has got to the lowest index number of the last 5-year period. At the same time the population of Estonia achieved the highest indicator among the people who thought the joining of the European Union a non-profitable affair (in spring 2004 there was already 38% of those people who thought so). Support to the key policies of the European Union The European Union is totally different from that union, which it was during the days when it started the negotiations with Estonia about how one of the smallest candidate states can become the member of the union. From that time the European Union has come out with several SAAR POLL LTD in association with The Gallup Organization, Hungary 7 • • • • • • • CANDIDATE COUNTRIES EUROBAROMETER 2004.1 – NATIONAL REPORT, ESTONIA initiatives and suggestions, some of them have already been realized but not yet for the new member countries. So it is important to know which the attitude to the new policies of the candidate states of that time would be. Attitude towards the European Monetary Union. The Estonian kroon was bound to the German mark. So the devolution to Euro meant only the change of the course of exchange. Before it you could get 8 kroons for one German mark, now you can get 15,64 kroons for one euro. It is a fixed course so the Estonian people are quite acquainted with that subject already. Which is the support of the people towards the European Monetary Union where is the united money – euro? The five researches that have been carried out through the past two years in Estonia show that during the recent times the amount of the supporters of the monetary union was larger than the amount of the opposites. But the spring research in 2004 showed that the number of opposites (47%) and the supporters (46%) has equalized. The number of opposites has grown since the second questioning in 2003. The number of supporters was unchangeable during the first three questionings (53%), during the last two questionings in April 2003 and in January 2004 the number of the supporters decreased to 46%. The decrease is conditioned primarily by the discussions in media about the certainly happening price advance when going on Euro. These discussions took place simultaneously with the general discussions about joining the European Union when people were asked about the fears connected with the price advances of sugar and other products. Support to the united foreign policy in the European Union concerning the other countries is quite high. The Euro referendum and the discussions over the constitution, which took place at that time, have increased the percentage of the people who support the foreign policy concerning the other countries. The amount of the opposites is noticeably smaller and it has not changed during the last periods. There are 2,5 times fewer opposites than supporters. The greatest support from the Estonian inhabitants is given to the conception of the united defence and foreign policy. The top support was given to it during the discussion period before the Euro referendum (82%). Even though the support has fallen by some percentage points it is still higher than two years ago. The amount of the opposites in this matter is generally stable and has not practically changed. Due to the research of 2004.1 it was 13%. Even though Estonia was only the candidate country the enlargement of the European Union did not find the strong single-valued support among the population. There were quite a lot of opposites to that kind of politics (due to the research of 2004.1 20%), but the supporters of that were 58% of the respondents. The image of the European Union The image of the European Union is briefly neutral from the viewpoint of the population of Estonia, something between positive and negative. Comparing with the other candidate states here is the largest number of people who describe the image of the European Union as neutral (45% of the respondents). In NMS-10 the percentage is 32 and the average number of them is also the same in EU-15 countries. The positive and negative evaluations are in balance in Estonian society (26% of the respondents say that the image is positive, 25% declares it in the contrary). In NMS-10 the positive evaluations are on an average about 40% and in EU-15 much more. So the Estonian society can be called balanced in context of giving positive and negative evaluations. In other states the positive position is clearly higher. What does the European union mean to the Estonians, what does it at first associate with? Above all the other facts is the possibility to travel, learn and work everywhere in the European Union (51%). This is the strongest part of its image in Estonia. The appearance of the other aspects is appreciably smaller. The next places by frequency are taken by euro (32%) and bureaucracy (29%). All the other elements stay far behind with their appearance (30%). The social economic sides as social defence, unemployment, wasting of money form an extra group. The Estonian inhabitants compared to the inhabitants of NMS-10 and EU-15 are in minority in finding qualities to describe the image of the European Union. SAAR POLL LTD in association with The Gallup Organization, Hungary 8 • • • • • • • CANDIDATE COUNTRIES EUROBAROMETER 2004.1 – NATIONAL REPORT, ESTONIA Which are the greatest differences with the image of the other new member states of the European Union? The Estonian people associate considerably little such kind of image signs as euro (Estonia – 32%, NMS–10 - 45%), peace (Estonia 23%, NMS – 37%), democracy (Estonia 17%, NMS – 31%), cultural variety (Estonia 18%, NMS – 30%), the more right of speaking in the world (Estonia15%, NMS – 26%), the economical boom (Estonia15%, NMS – 30%) with the inhabitants of the other countries. The image of the Estonians does not differ so much in its structure but compared to the other countries it is less intensive and less positive at the same time Understanding of the European Union and the advantages arising from it There are a great number of people among the Estonians who do not understand how the European union is functioning (47%). In the new member countries of the European Union the number of those people is 35%, hence appreciably less than in Estonia. We referred to the results of it in our media analyses. The Estonian society considers the advantages of joining the European Union primarily on the level of statehood. First of all it means the stabilizing of Estonian politics (46%) and also the stability of the development of economy (43%). These are the only fields where the Estonians see more advantages than disadvantages. When comparing the positions of the new member states and the so-called old member states in that question we will see that the new member states see more advantages than disadvantages but the EU-15 countries are on much more pessimistic positions, rather disagreeing. For example in new member states 49% of the respondents rather agree and 32% rather disagree with the statement that the politics of the country is going to be more stable. In EU-15 countries the same average index numbers are 39% and 49%. The answers of the two state groups are much more different in questions about political stability. In direct questions about people’s personal postures we meet rather pessimism than optimism. 38% of the respondents agree that with joining the European Union their life will become more secure, but 44% of the respondents are in opposition. The average index numbers of the new member states are 51% and 34%, so their perspectives are more optimistic. Least and least people agree with the statement that their opinion is heard in the European Union. Only 9% of the respondents agree with that statement. Comparing it with the answers of the new member states we can see that in NMS 27% of the respondents agree with that statement and in the countries of the European Union the number of those who agree is 30%. The attitude of the Estonian population can be improved only by the practical life in the European Union and by media communicating that kind of life. The role of the European Union The population of Estonia considers the work of the environmental protection the most positive of the politics of the European Union (58% of the population consider it positive), on the following places stay fighting with terrorism (54%), and the defence- and foreign policy (both spheres are rated positively by 52% of the population). So the role of the European Union is seen at first from the aspect of the foreign politics. The next group is formed by the economic areas, where 43% of the population thinks the role of the European Union positive in economy and 35% in unemployment area. There are also four more areas where the part of the positively thinking people is larger than the part of the negatively thinking. These are education, health services, housing constructions and pensions. In other areas the role of the European Union is handled rather negatively than positively. These areas are price advance (71% define it negative), taxes (52%) and immigration (47%). The public transport is the area where the position is neutral (64%). SAAR POLL LTD in association with The Gallup Organization, Hungary 9 • • • • • • • CANDIDATE COUNTRIES EUROBAROMETER 2004.1 – NATIONAL REPORT, ESTONIA The fears connected with the membership The Estonian population is most afraid of the international criminality (67%) and the lost of their own money (63%). The structure of fears of Estonian population differs from the fears of the new member countries and EU-15 countries. In new member countries the difficulties of the farmers and the growth of the international organized crime are put on the first two places. The people of the EU-15 countries see the problems in transferring of jobs to the countries where the product costs are lower and in international criminality. The last fear is similar in different countries. The other fears are rather more local. When comparing the fears with other state groups the Estonians are least afraid of the business depression or of the possibility to lose the social benefits. At the same time these are the greatest fears of the countries of EU-15. When comparing with other state groups the Estonians are more afraid of losing their money, also of the fact that the smaller states will lose their power or of our language to be used more and more less. With emphasizing the national aspects stronger than others the Estonians contrast with other state groups. The budget of the European Union By the opinion of the Estonian population the 60% of the budget of the European union is divided equally between four areas: agriculture, administrative and staff costs, employment and social policy and foreign policy. The financing of these areas is seen somewhat differently by the new member states and by the population of the 15 European Union countries. Although the Estonian people think that administrative costs is the biggest expense item in the budget of the European Union the index number is smaller compared with the rate of the other state groups (Estonia 15%, NMS-10 19%, EU-15 24%). The expectations in employment policy are higher in Estonia than in other state groups. As agriculture plays the very important role in NMS-10 countries the expectations about the budget are higher in that area. Identity of Europe Estonia is a multinational country that due to the Soviet occupation could not develop to a normal multinational country, so the national identity is a very difficult and not directly defined phenomenon for a great number of non-Estonians. That is also the reason why 52% of the Estonians define themselves only as Estonians and only 27% of non-Estonians do that. The greatest number of people who define themselves first of all as Estonians and then as Europeans (37%) is also among the last category. The different kind of identity is seen also in the fact that 19% of non-Estonians define themselves only as Europeans not putting Estonian even on the second place. There was only 2% of such kind of people among Estonians. Institutional reform in the European Union There are quite a lot of institutional reforms going on in the European Union. One of them is connected with the constitution of the European Union. There are many discussions taking place and the enactment of it has delayed. The new member countries could also participate in those discussions. The problems of the constitution were exposed also in Estonian media. The main problems, which are handled in Estonian media, are the problems of representation and the federative circumstances. Irrespectively of the substance of it the idea has the support of 54% of the Estonian population. During the research period since 2002 when there was virtually no information about the constitution 2/3 of the population have supported the idea. The substance of it is quite a different question. By the results of the last research there was only 15% of the respondents who were against the idea, 30% could not say anything. Due to the questioning in spring 2004 the support to the constitution was lower in Estonia (54%) than in new member states (63%). There are also some more opposites in Estonia. SAAR POLL LTD in association with The Gallup Organization, Hungary 10 • • • • • • • CANDIDATE COUNTRIES EUROBAROMETER 2004.1 – NATIONAL REPORT, ESTONIA Another important reform in the European Union is connected with veto power in adopting decisions. The public opinion, (both in new and in old member countries of the European Union) prefers the preservation of status quo which substance is to defend the important official interests. This position is supported more strongly by the new member states than the 15 members of the European Union. That kind of approach is quite natural because the old member countries are afraid of lessening their sovereignty and of weakening their positions in the future. The population of Estonia seems to be more reserved in this question and tends to resemble to the position of the 15 states of the European Union. With evaluating these answers it is useful to consider the fact that the population of Estonia is not yet enough informed in this question to complete their own opinion. It can be read out from the matter that the number of those people who did not have their opinion in this question is quite big. So in a current situation it could be taken as the embryonic state of the public view in this particular question. Similarly we can take up a standpoint to the opinion of the public view how to vote in the Council of Ministers. From the last and the present question it is possible to read out the so-called principle of the equality of treatment when the smaller states have the same opportunity to give their swing vote while discussing the questions that are important to their country. The new states want to defeat the formation of the ideas that could be familiar to the unitary states. SAAR POLL LTD in association with The Gallup Organization, Hungary 11 • • • • • • •
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