Drought adaptation measures and risk
tolerance of commercial, small-scale
and subsistence maize farmers in the
Free State and North West Provinces
of South Africa
W. Durand
ARC-Grain Crops Institute, Private Bag X1251, Potchefstroom, South
Africa
March 2010
Drought
First
Basic human right
Second
Basic human right
Access to clean, available
drinking water
at any time
Access to affordable
basic food required
for survival
Requirements to be met
Rural areas
Manage above ground and subsurface
water sources to ensure that these are
sustainable
uncontaminated and accessible.
Urban areas
Free access to drinkable tap water
necessary for survival.
Background
In South Africa maize is the most important grain crop
South African agricultural sector is dualistic
•
Commercial agriculture
- 96% of national production
•
Small-scale and subsistence
- 4% of national production
Commercial sector:
60% White maize
40% Yellow maize
Value of maize (ZA Rand) compared to other grain
crops cultivated in South Africa
Human consumption
Animal feed
17%
2%
White maize
Yellow maize
95% dryland
86% dryland
1%
5% irrigated
14% irrigated
Small-scale and subsistence sector:
Own consumption
Sell surplus
80%
Wheat
Sorghum
Barley
Maize
Disadvantage: Areas are located in regions sub-optimal for crop production
- poor soils
- erratic rainfall
Study area
Area
Western
Cape
0%
Northern
Cape
2%
North
West
Free State
NorthWest
30%
Production
NorthWest
20%
Western
Cape
0%
Gauteng
4%
40%
Gauteng
4%
Limpopo
2%
Eastern
Cape
1%
Mpumalanga
18%
KwaZuluNatal
3%
70 % of the area
Northern
Cape
8%
Free State
39%
Limpopo
2%
Mpumalanga
21%
Free State
KwaZuluNatal
5%
60 % of production
Eastern
Cape
1%
Climate and maize growth requirements
Maize growth requirements:
• 450-600mm during growing season
• 1800 heat units
to reach maturity
Free State
• Deep (< 750 mm) well drained soils
200
180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
North West
35
200
180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
35
5
0
30
°C
mm
30
°C
mm
Planting dates:
25
25
20
20
•
Sufficient soil moisture (25mm
over 5 day period)
15
15
•
Minimum temperatures of 10
10
10 - 15°C have been maintained for a week
5
0
Precipitation
Crop Evaporation
Precipitation
Crop Evaporation
Harvesting:
Maximum Temperature
Minimum Temperature
Maximum Temperature
Minimum Temperature
From May when moisture content is between 12.5 and 14%
December
November
October
September
August
July
June
May
April
March
February
January
December
November
October
September
August
July
June
May
April
March
February
January
-5
-5
Eastern Free State: Middle October
to middle November
Western Free State and North West: Middle November to middle December
Area, yield and number of farming units for the period 1997 to 2009
Province
Farming type
Commercial
Free State
North West
1
Area 1
1 032 000 ha
3.31 t/ha
CV 17 %
CV 20 %
Subsistence and
Small-scale
5200 ha
2.24 t/ha
CV 71 %
CV 24 %
Commercial
957 000 ha
2.67 t/ha
CV 23 %
CV 23 %
28 200 ha
CV 33 %
1.15 t/ha
Subsistence and
Small-scale
Source: Agricultural Abstract, 2009.
Source: Maize Information Guide, 2008
3 Source: Census of Agriculture, 2002
4 Source: Agricultural survey, 1996
5 Source: Development Bank of Southern Africa, 1991
2
Yield 1
CV 28%
Experimental
yield 2
4.48 – 7.0
t/ha
Number of
farmers/
households
2002 3 8 531
1996 4 11 272
32 400 5
4.48 t/ha
2002 3 5 349
1996 4 7 512
147 400 5
Responses and adaptations to the natural environment :
Commercial Agriculture
Manage according to the yield potential of field or area
Advantage: Setting realistic yield target lowers farmers risk and they are able to produce
more economically. To set target, data from all productions seasons, even failure due to
drought, have to be used.
Shift from conventional tillage to no-till
Advantage: Higher soil water holding capacity and organic matter content.
Crop rotation
Advantage: Reduce risk by spreading risk. Yields usually higher after fallow due to higher
soil water content.
Well adapted cultivars
Advantage: Higher yield through the introduction of GM maize.
Planting season
Advantage: Plant in optimum planting window to avoid mid summer drought -minimize
risk, spread of planting dates, use different growth season length cultivars - spread risk
Irrigation
Advantage: Low risk, high yields 10-15t/ha. 6% of area is irrigated. Subjected to
hydrological drought.
Responses and adaptations to the natural environment :
Small-scale and subsistence Agriculture
Consume “geen mealies” and maize meal
Advantage: Start using the crop even before it is harvested.
Area planted is small
Advantage: family labour, minimal input costs, plant according to the outlook of the
season.
Intercropping
Advantage: Reduced soil temperature, retained soil water, efficient use of space and
labour and increased nutritional value.
Water harvesting
Advantage: Decreases run-off and soil loss increased yields.
Own seed or open pollinated varieties (OPV’s)
Advantage: Seed cost at a quarter of that of commercial seed.
Drought and low Nitrogen tolerant maize breeding program (Mother-Baby trials)
Advantage: farmers get to choose best varieties for their production need and
preferences.
Responses and adaptations to the marketing environment :
Commercial Agriculture
Change from fixed channel fixed price system to free market in 1995/6
Single channel fixed market
Advantage: Government carried the risk
Disadvantage: Low profit margins for farmers
Free market system
Advantage: Prices are negotiated and depend on supply and demand, and the outlook of
the season. High profits.
Disadvantage: Compete with subsidized countries in global market, no government
subsidy. Farmers carry the risk.
Production cost
Over the past years input cost increased, lowered profit margin of farmers and increased
their risk to adverse conditions such as drought. Farmers have minimized input cost by
better physical and financial management. Un-profitable maize farmers have to sell
farms. Reduction in number of farmers.
Access to production credit
Crop failure due to drought decreases the chance to access to production credit in the
next season. – Economic drought.
1965/66
1966/67
1967/68
1968/69
1969/70
1970/71
1971/72
1972/73
1973/74
1974/75
1975/76
1976/77
1977/78
1978/79
1979/80
1980/81
1981/82
1982/83
1983/84
1984/85
1985/86
1986/87
1987/88
1988/89
1989/90
1990/91
1991/92
1992/93
1993/94
1994/95
1995/96
1996/97
1997/98
1998/99
1999/00
2000/01
2001/02
2002/03
2003/04
2004/05
2005/06
2006/07
2007/08
Area (1000 ha)
Average area
Average yield
1965 - 1995
4 489 000 ha
CV 8%
1.88 t/ha
CV 33%
Deregulation of
the maize market
6000
El Niño
4000
2.50
3000
2.00
2000
1.50
1.00
1000
0.50
0
0.00
Area
t/ha
Yield (t/ha)
Responses and adaptations to the marketing environment :
Commercial Agriculture
1996 – 2007
Average area
3 270 000 ha
CV 16%
Average yield
2.8 t/ha
CV 18%
4.50
4.00
5000
3.50
3.00
Responses and adaptations to the marketing environment :
Small-scale and subsistence Agriculture
Formal market versus informal market
Difficulty accessing formal market – negative for the land restitution program
Better price for maize in informal market
Own processing
Process own maize to maize meal hand milling or local miller
Value adding from increased yields
Increased income from selling extra grain
Cost saving by having to purchase maize meal
Percentage year on year increse in the consumer price of maize
Access to production capital
products
In drought year much of the production capital is lost to buy maize meal
25
Challenges
High seed and fertilizers costs
Access to land
Financial services
Mentor ship programs
Markets
Percentage (%)
Increases in food price
20
Compounded effect of price increases – sosio economic/famine drought
15
10
Rural price
5
Unbarn price
0
2007/2008
-5
2008/2009
2009/2010
Other responses and adaptations
Evade drought versus enduring drought
Endure drought
Example: Maize farmer - maize on a field is not a movable asset. Maize can only
be sold at the end of the production season once matured and harvested.
Evade drought
Example: Livestock farmer – Move livestock to better pasture or sell of access
stock.
How can the maize farmer evade drought?
Commercial agriculture
Transfer risk to crop insurance companies.
Switch to drought tolerant crops, livestock or game farming, or eco tourism.
Subsistence agriculture
Change preference.
Plant more drought tolerant stapes like sorghum, millet or cassava.
Drought and food security
Definition
Connotation
Responsibility
Food security
Availability of food
Government and free market
Affordability of food
Government
Food self sufficiency
Surplus production
Free market
Food sovereignty
Right to define own food and
agricultural policies
Government and free market
Government’s responsibilities/interventions
•
Stabilize food prices - Food price monitoring initiative - supervised by the
National Agricultural Marketing Council (NAMC).
•
Fair market competition.
•
Ensure economic growth and jobs to enable people to buy food.
•
Create a social safety network for those in distress.
•
Assist farmers during drought years through access to credit
Free market’s responsibilities
•
Import in years of shortages.
•
Produce at an affordable cost to the consumer.
•
No collusion or price fixing.
Official drought policy and interventions in South Africa
Jurisdiction
Department of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (DAFF)
Declaration of drought
Quantitative index -Two consecutive seasons experiencing 70% or less of average annual
rainfall.
Target sectors
Livestock farmers, rebates on fodder and transport.
Production credit access
The Drought Management Plan (DMP)
After 1991/1992 drought initiated a process which has lead to the drafting of a drought
management plan (DMP) published in 2005.
Legislative framework for the:
• Prevention and reduction
• Mitigation
• Preparedness
• Response
• Rehabilitation
• Interventions
of disasters
Current critique
• Does not cover insured or insurable assets such as
infrastructure and crops.
• Does not replace what farmers have lost but rather
provides financial assistance to enable production in
the next season.
Drought mitigation strategies in South Africa
Awareness
•
Public media such as internet, new papers and radio.
•
Some small-scale and subsistence farmers are illiterate.
Avoidance
•
Prior information to reduce risk that is taken
Natural environment - Early warning systems
Market environment - Crop estimates committee
Rehabilitation
•
Financial assistance must be in accordance with the Disaster Management Plan.
•
Community must commit to good conservation measures and sound farming
practices .
Early warning systems
•
Beginning or end of a drought is difficult to define.
•
In South Africa a number of seasonal climate forecasts are available.
•
Forecasts are issued by scientific, academic and meteorological institutions.
•
Disseminated by public media, internet and private consultants.
Disadvantage: Mostly electronic media not readily available to small-scale
or subsistence farmer.
•
Used by commercial farmers to adopt adaptive stagey to a imminent drought.
Drought mitigation strategies in South Africa
Two types of indicators of drought
Meteorological Indicators
Water satisfaction Index
NDVI
Standardized precipitation index
ENSO advisories
Biological Indicators
ZA-Model
PUTU-veld production
Prerequisites for a efficient early warning system
•
Timely release of information
•
Accuracy of forecast
•
Spatial resolution of forecast
•
Correct interpretation of the conditions
Case study
•
1991/1992 and 1994/95 drought: Slow release of information- farmers did
not change planting date.
•
1997/98 drought expected: drought did not realize - farmers changed
production decisions
Confusion among farmers
Understanding of ENSO has improved, farmers better understand and apply
forecast seasonal climate information.
Conclusions
1.
South Africa urgently requires a completed drought policy framework.
Implementation is hindered by the fact that in non-drought years the point
recedes from the agenda.
Requirements by commercial farmers:
Research to find methods to lessen the impact of drought.
Implementation of drought insurance schemes.
Relief from high input costs.
Requirements by small-scale and subsistence farmers:
Assistance to rural poor and farm workers.
Poverty alleviation grant (rural and urban).
2.
South Africa requires a functional, coordinated drought early warning
system for climatic droughts.
Implementation is hindered by:
• Absence of a adequate rain-gauge network.
• Competition for and lack of funds between institutions.
Conclusions
3.
South Africa requires a vulnerability data base.
Implementation is hindered by:
•
Lack of funds.
•
No centralized institutions for coordination.
•
Defining who is or is not vulnerable.
4.
South Africa requires a unbiased form of social and physical
vulnerability indicators of drought.
Social/Nutritional indicators that can be used:
•
Purchasing power of the rural and urban poor.
•
Average annual income and grain prices.
•
Indicators of local economic growth.
Physical/vegetation indicator that can be used:
•
NDVI’s
•
Crop models, e.g. DSSAT Crop System Model (CSM) to develop crop
specific drought indexes.
Recommendations
To develop a:
1. Socio-economic index for small-scale and subsistence farmers and a
2. Economic risk tolerance index for the commercial maize farming
sector,
to aid
policy makers, agriculturalists and business
to assess the vulnerability of both sectors and
to ensure equitable support in all drought relief efforts.
Thank You