Journal of Marine Research, 69, 167–189, 2011 Spin-up and adjustment of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current and global pycnocline by Lesley C. Allison1 , Helen L. Johnson2 and David P. Marshall3 ABSTRACT A theory is presented for the adjustment of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) and global pycnocline to a sudden and sustained change in wind forcing. The adjustment timescale is controlled by the mesoscale eddy diffusivity across the ACC, the mean width of the ACC, the surface area of the ocean basins to the north, and deep water formation in the North Atlantic. In particular, northern sinking may have the potential to shorten the timescale and reduce its sensitivity to Southern Ocean eddies, but the relative importance of northern sinking and Southern Ocean eddies cannot be determined precisely, largely due to limitations in the parameterization of northern sinking. Although it is clear that the main processes that control the adjustment timescale are those which counteract the deepening of the global pycnocline, the theory also suggests that the timescale can be subtly modified by wind forcing over the ACC and global diapycnal mixing. Results from calculations with a reduced-gravity model compare well with the theory. The multidecadal-centennial adjustment timescale implies that long observational time series will be required to detect dynamic change in the ACC due to anthropogenic forcing. The potential role of Southern Ocean mesoscale eddy activity in determining both the equilibrium state of the ACC and the timescale over which it adjusts suggests that the response to anthropogenic forcing may be rather different in coupled ocean-atmosphere climate models that parameterize and resolve mesoscale eddies. 1. Introduction The Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) plays a pivotal role in the global ocean and climate system. The ACC is associated with steeply tilted isopycnals, exposing abyssal water masses to the surface on the southern flank of the current; interactions with the overlying atmosphere and sea ice lead to the formation of water masses that fill a substantial part of the global ocean volume. Water masses formed on the northern flank of the ACC sequester large amounts of heat from the atmosphere (Gille, 2002), with the potential to influence the global response to anthropogenic warming. The outcropping isopycnals in the Southern Ocean also provide an important pathway for the uptake of anthropogenic carbon dioxide 1. NCAS-Climate, Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Earley Gate, Reading, RG6 6BB, United Kingdom. email: [email protected] 2. Department of Earth Sciences, University of Oxford, South Parks Road, Oxford, OX1 3AN, United Kingdom. 3. Department of Physics, Clarendon Laboratory, University of Oxford, Parks Road, Oxford, OX1 3PU, United Kingdom. 167 168 Journal of Marine Research [69, 2-3 (CO2 ) into the ocean interior (Sabine et al., 1999; Sabine et al., 2004; Caldeira and Duffy, 2000). The climate system is therefore sensitive to changes in ocean circulation at high southern latitudes, with the potential for feedback mechanisms altering the rate at which CO2 is removed from the atmosphere (Mignone et al., 2006). The ACC is driven by a complex nonlinear combination of forcing mechanisms, and obtaining a clear theory for its transport remains a significant challenge (see e.g., Rintoul, Hughes, and Olbers, 2001). The westerly winds play an important role, accelerating the current by transferring momentum to the barotropic (depth-independent) component of the flow. As well as this, the winds also drive a northward Ekman transport at the surface, which is an important part of the meridional circulation in the Southern Ocean. The vertical Ekman pumping associated with divergence to the south of the ACC and convergence to the north impacts upon the stratification and causes isopycnals to tilt upward toward the Antarctic continent. Through thermal wind balance, this effect on the stratification drives an eastward baroclinic transport, and is an indirect mechanism by which the wind drives the ACC (e.g., Gnanadesikan and Hallberg, 2000). Since the baroclinic component of the ACC is associated with meridional density gradients across the Southern Ocean, then in addition to the indirect effect of the wind, any process that affects the meridional slope of isopycnal surfaces and the depth of the pycnocline to the north can play a role in controlling the strength of the ACC. The transport can therefore be influenced by processes such as surface heat and freshwater forcing (Saenko et al., 2002; Hogg, 2010), mesoscale eddy processes (Karsten et al., 2002), diapycnal mixing (Gnanadesikan and Hallberg, 2000; Munday et al., 2011), the formation rate of Antarctic Bottom Water (AABW) (Cai and Baines, 1996; Gent et al., 2001), and the rate at which North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW) is formed and imported into the Southern Ocean (McDermott, 1996; Gnanadesikan and Hallberg, 2000; Fučkar and Vallis, 2007). In recent years significant progress has been made toward understanding how the transport of the ACC varies on timescales ranging from subseasonal to interannual. The subseasonal variability is predominantly barotropic and observable using bottom pressure recorders (Whitworth, 1983; Meredith et al., 1996). Hughes et al. (1999) showed that transport variability on timescales between 10 and 220 days is dominated by a barotropic mode that follows contours of f/H (where f is the Coriolis parameter and H is the ocean depth), and that this variability is linked to variations in the wind stress which alter the meridional sea level slope. Observational evidence for this barotropic response to high frequency wind variability was provided by Gille et al. (2001). Baroclinic processes become important for ACC variability on timescales longer than around a year. Using a coarse resolution coupled model, Hall and Visbeck (2002) showed that interannual wind stress variability associated with the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) affects the baroclinic ACC transport via the effect of Ekman pumping on the isopycnal slope. Meredith et al. (2004) provided observational evidence for this link between interannual ACC transport variability and the SAM. 2011] Allison et al.: Spin-up & adjustment of ACC 169 Quantitative theories for the adjustment of the ACC to a change in wind stress have been put forward. Using three years of bottom pressure measurements, Wearn and Baker (1980) suggested a simple relaxation model for the fast barotropic adjustment mode. Their model is based on an increase in dissipation which eventually balances the increased ACC momentum associated with strengthened winds and predicts an adjustment timescale of around a week. Olbers and Lettmann (2007) extended the Wearn and Baker (1980) model by introducing a mechanism for baroclinic adjustment. They linked the ACC transport to bottom form stress and the baroclinic potential energy stored in the density field to produce a linear model that has both barotropic and baroclinic components. Their model has two adjustment modes, and yields a barotropic timescale of a few days and a baroclinic timescale of 2–3 years. While much has been learned about the short-term adjustment of the Southern Ocean to local changes in wind forcing, far less is known about how the ACC may respond to changes in wind forcing on timescales longer than interannual. This is an important question for understanding the response of the global ocean to anthropogenic forcing, in terms of both change in the meridional circulation across the ACC, which affects the oceanic uptake of anthropogenic carbon (e.g., Le Quéré et al., 2007; Lovenduski and Ito, 2009), and change in the stratification to the north of the ACC (e.g., Böning et al., 2008), which is an important control on global ocean heat content. Furthermore, understanding the timescale of ACC equilibration is central to understanding the phase-lag between the temperature changes seen in Greenland and Antarctic ice cores during glacial cycles (Blunier et al., 1998; Broecker, 1998; Stocker, 1998; Barker et al., 2009), as well as for determining the time over which ocean models must be integrated to reach equilibrium. Theoretical understanding for how the ACC may adjust to a change in forcing is based on local Southern Ocean dynamics. Indeed, many of the numerical modeling studies that examine the ACC’s transient adjustment to wind stress changes use model domains of limited latitudinal extent. In these channel model studies, there is the assumption that at equilibrium, the northward Ekman transport is balanced by a southward eddy return flow, as in Johnson and Bryden (1989). However, many studies (e.g., Gnanadesikan and Hallberg, 2000; Fučkar and Vallis, 2007) have demonstrated that the strength of the ACC at equilibrium is influenced by processes that occur outside the Southern Ocean, so it is reasonable to expect that the global ocean may have some role to play in the adjustment of the ACC. After an initial geostrophic adjustment of the local stratification to a sudden change in southern hemisphere wind forcing (see e.g., Cushman-Roisin, 1994; Gill, 1982), or through the local baroclinic adjustment mechanism discussed by Olbers and Lettmann (2007), it is likely that a response would be felt elsewhere in the global ocean through oceanic teleconnections. A change in the density field (such as the deepening of isopycnal surfaces to the north of the ACC predicted by Hall and Visbeck (2002) in response to strengthening winds) would induce a combination of wave mechanisms that can communicate the signal to remote locations across the globe. McDermott (1996) and Gnanadesikan and Hallberg 170 Journal of Marine Research [69, 2-3 (2000) show that the response of the density field to changes in Southern Ocean wind stress is global in extent. Using an interhemispheric eddy-resolving ocean model, Wolfe and Cessi (2010) demonstrate that the density structure within the circumpolar current determines the mid-depth stratification in the entire domain. This result is supported by the recent work of Radko and Kamenkovich (2011), which highlights the central role that Southern Ocean processes play in setting the global stratification in a two-and-a-half-layer analytical model. Kamenkovich and Radko (2011) also demonstrate that the stratification just north of the Southern Ocean is important for controlling the stratification of the Atlantic and its steadystate meridional overturning. In this paper we use the link between the baroclinic ACC and the global stratification to examine their transient response to a change in forcing. Similar global balances connect the ACC, global pycnocline and Atlantic overturning in the theoretical models of Samelson (2004, 2009). We develop a simple time-dependent model for the adjustment of the ACC and global pycnocline to changes in local and remote forcing. We find that both the equilibrium ACC and its adjustment timescale are controlled by the mesoscale eddy diffusivity across the ACC, the area of the global ocean to the north, and deep water formation in the North Atlantic. The theory suggests that the timescale may be subtly modified by the relative strength of the wind forcing over the ACC and global diapycnal mixing, but this is a relatively minor effect. The e-folding adjustment timescale is found to be multidecadal to centennial. While preparing this manuscript, we have become aware of two related studies by Samelson (2011) and Jones et al. (2011) that reach broadly similar conclusions, albeit using analytical models that have a much simpler representation of the ACC and a less detailed analysis of the adjustment timescales. The details of the analytical model are presented in Section 2, and its time-dependent solution is given in Section 3. In Section 4 we validate the theoretical estimates against numerical calculations performed with a reduced-gravity model in an interhemispheric basin with a circumpolar channel. Section 5 considers the influence that northern deep water formation may have on the adjustment process, and a concluding discussion is presented in Section 6. 2. Theoretical model for ACC adjustment In this section, we formulate a simple model of the global pycnocline and baroclinic ACC in terms of a surface “pycnocline” layer overlying a deep abyssal layer. The model represents an extension to that presented by Gnanadesikan (1999) to include a more consistent formulation of Southern Ocean wind forcing and eddies (Allison et al., 2010). The model is sketched schematically in Figure 1. The global pycnocline depth in a steady state is set by processes that act as sources and sinks of water to the surface layer. The depth of the pycnocline is increased by the equatorward Ekman transport out of the Southern Ocean (TEk ) and diapycnal upwelling over the basins to the north of the ACC (TU ), and decreased 2011] Allison et al.: Spin-up & adjustment of ACC 171 Figure 1. Schematic of the simple analytical model of Gnanadesikan (1999). by the poleward eddy bolus transport in the Southern Ocean (TEddies ) and northern deep water formation (TN ): TS + TU − TN = 0, (1) where TS = TEk − TEddies is the residual Southern Ocean transport. As discussed by Gnanadesikan and Hallberg (2000), a deepening of the global pycnocline leads to an increase in baroclinic ACC transport through an increased meridional density gradient across the current. Assuming that the ACC is in geostrophic balance, and that the pycnocline outcrops to the south of the ACC, the baroclinic ACC transport can be estimated from the pycnocline depth, h, via TACC ≈ g # h2 , 2|fS | (2) where g # is the reduced gravity and |fS | is the magnitude of the Coriolis parameter at the latitude of the ACC (assumed constant across the current). This relationship motivates the use of a simple reduced-gravity framework as an idealized approach to explore the response of the baroclinic ACC and global stratification to altered forcing. The ACC transport can be approximated via a single variable, h, the interfacial depth between the upper and lower layers of differing density. To explore the adjustment of the pycnocline to a change in forcing, the rate of change of volume in the surface layer can be equated to the combined transports from each of the density class transformation processes. We arrive at a time-dependent extension of the Gnanadesikan (1999) model: !! ∂ (3) h dA = TS + TU − TN , ∂t (c.f. Jones et al., 2011) where A is the surface area of the basins to the north of the ACC. 172 Journal of Marine Research [69, 2-3 In this section, we first motivate the representation of the pycnocline depth through a single global variable, then we review the rationale for the form of the wind forcing and eddies over the Southern Ocean. a. Pycnocline adjustment north of the ACC A change in Southern Ocean wind stress will modify the density structure on the northern side of the ACC. This density signal will be transmitted by westward-propagating Rossby waves to the eastern coast of South America, and would then propagate equatorward via fast boundary waves (e.g., Kawase, 1987; McDermott, 1996; Johnson and Marshall, 2002, 2004; Ivchenko et al., 2006). Equatorial Kelvin waves communicate density anomalies eastward along the equator, and upon reaching the eastern side of the basin, boundary waves carry the signal poleward in both hemispheres, with baroclinic Rossby waves spreading the signal westward into the basin interior. Through these wave mechanisms, a change in Southern Ocean wind stress can be rapidly communicated throughout the global ocean. Here we model the oceans north of the ACC through a single basin. Allison (2009) extends this analysis to two basins (representing the Atlantic and Pacific) to include the seiching mode between the basins (c.f. Cessi et al., 2004) but finds that this has little impact on the overall adjustment. Following Johnson and Marshall (2002), the dynamics in the ocean interior, assuming small Rossby number, are described by the Rossby wave equation: ∂h c(φ) ∂h κv − = . ∂t R cos φ ∂λ h (4) Here φ is latitude, λ is longitude, R is the radius of the Earth, t is time and c(φ) = βg # h0 /f 2 is the Rossby wave speed, where g # is the reduced gravity, h0 is a reference depth for the pycnocline, f is the Coriolis parameter and β its meridional gradient. Included in the Rossby wave equation is the contribution from diapycnal mixing, with diffusivity κv , but not wind forcing (the latter is easily incorporated but does not change the results significantly). Integrating Eq. 4 over the basin, but excluding the western boundary layer, we find: ∂ ∂t !! interior h dA = TU + !φN c(he − hb )R dφ, (5) φS where he is the layer thickness on the eastern boundary and hb is the layer thickness just outside the western boundary layer. As in Johnson and Marshall (2002), we further assume that the boundary wave dynamics prevent significant pressure gradients along the eastern boundary; i.e., that he is independent of latitude at any instant. The surface layer thickness on the western side of the basin, just outside any western boundary current/viscous boundary layer, is therefore set by the layer thickness at the eastern boundary, at a time-lag given 2011] Allison et al.: Spin-up & adjustment of ACC 173 by the Rossby wave speed and the basin width, L = L(φ), and by the diapycnal mixing experienced during the passage of the Rossby wave across the basin: hb (t, φ) ≈ he (t − L/c, φ) + κv L . he (t) c (6) Here we assume that he varies sufficiently slowly that the contribution from diapycnal mixing can be approximated using he (t). Since the adjustment timescale is likely to be much longer than the maximum Rossby wave crossing time, we can now use a Taylor expansion to write hb (t, φ) ≈ he (t) − ∂he L L κv + , ∂t c c he (t) and hence, integrating over latitude, we obtain !! ∂ ∂he A, h dA = ∂t ∂t (7) (8) interior where A is the area of the basin. This result is not unexpected: it simply states that the Rossby waves have sufficient time to radiate he anomalies into the basin near-instantaneously, relative to the overall adjustment, and hence the thickness throughout the interior can be approximated by the thickness on the eastern boundary. Finally, if the volume of the western boundary layer is small, then the volume over the entire basin (Eq. 3) is roughly equivalent to the volume over the interior (Eq. 8): ∂he A ≈ TS + TU − TN , ∂t (9) where TU ≈ κv A . he (10) b. Southern Ocean transport We now consider the processes that set TS . As discussed and illustrated in Allison et al. (2010) for the equilibrium ACC, to obtain good agreement between the theory and more detailed numerical calculations, we must distinguish between the fraction of the wind stress which drives the ACC and the fraction which drives a gyre circulation in the basin. The northern limit of this region in which momentum is imparted to the ACC can be defined by the northernmost geostrophic streamline of the ACC; i.e., where h = he , the equilibrium layer thickness on the eastern boundary of the basin. Here we expand on the dynamical reasons for evaluating the Southern Ocean transports within the region of circumpolar streamlines. 174 Journal of Marine Research [69, 2-3 When the Rossby number is small, the large-scale approximation to the momentum equation over the Southern Ocean can be written f k × u + g # ∇h = τs . ρ0 h (11) The transport velocity is therefore hu = 1 k×∇ f " g # h2 2 # −k× τs , ρ0 f (12) and, using the parameterization of Gent and McWilliams (1990) for the eddy-induced transport velocity, hu∗ = −κGM ∇h, (13) where κGM is the eddy diffusivity, the net transport velocity is " # 2# 1 gh τs ∗ −k× − κGM ∇h. h(u + u ) = k × ∇ f 2 ρ0 f (14) The transport across a closed layer thickness contour, TS = TEk − TEddies , can be obtained by integrating the cross-contour component of the forcing along its length. The integration can be simplified by assuming the contours are nearly zonal: $ $ (x) $ τ ∂h TS ≈ h(v + v∗ )dx ≈ − dx − κGM dx. (15) ρ0 f ∂y We now integrate Eq. 15 across the circumpolar streamlines and divide by the zonal mean meridional width of this integration region, Ly to give the final result: TS ≈ − 1 Ly !! circumpolar streamlines τ(x) 1 dA − ρ0 f Ly $ κGM he dx, (16) where he is the pycnocline depth north of the ACC (approximately equal to the eastern boundary layer thickness, as discussed above) and we have assumed h ≈ 0 south of the ACC. Although in this study we shall treat Ly as a time-invariant quantity, its magnitude is determined by the details of the circulation. This goes some way towards introducing a dynamical representation of Ly as suggested by Levermann and Fürst (2010). c. Northern sinking There are several different approaches for scaling the northern sinking term, TN , and for a summary we refer the reader to Fürst and Levermann (2011). Most approaches agree that TN should scale with the square of some vertical length scale (either the pycnocline depth 2011] Allison et al.: Spin-up & adjustment of ACC 175 or the level of no motion in the overturning) and linearly with a meridional (or vertical) density difference. A simple scaling can be written TN ≈ γg # h2 , fN (17) where fN is the Coriolis parameter at the latitude of the sinking region and γ is a constant with details dependent on the scaling method. The assumption that the density gradient is constant means that this scaling does not account for the thermohaline feedbacks that are important for controlling the behavior of the overturning circulation (e.g., Johnson et al., 2007; Fürst and Levermann, 2011). This inadequacy, and the increased complexity resulting from the inclusion of a quadratic expression for TN in the volume budget, motivates us to first consider the adjustment in the limit of no northern sinking. We shall proceed by setting TN = 0, but note that the effect of the northern sinking can be included by linearizing Eq. 17 and incorporating the coefficients into the other terms. We defer further discussion of the effects of the northern sinking term to Section 5. 3. Analytical time-dependent solution To simplify the following analysis, the coefficients associated with the scalings for TEddies and TU are combined to form one coefficient for each term: G= κGM Lx Ly (18) is the constant associated with the Gent and McWilliams (1990) eddy scaling, where κGM is the eddy diffusivity, Lx is the zonal extent of the ACC and Ly is its meridional extent as discussed in the previous section (when multiplied by h this is equivalent to the second term on the right hand side of Eq. 16), and D = κv A (19) is the constant associated with the diapycnal upwelling in the basin, where κv is the diapycnal diffusivity and A is the basin area. With no northern sinking term (TN = 0), the volume budget for the surface layer is now written ∂h D A = TEk − Gh + , ∂t h and the equilibrium solution for the pycnocline depth is: % 2 TEk + TEk + 4GD heq = . 2G (20) (21) 176 [69, 2-3 Journal of Marine Research Figure 2. Adjustment timescale (years) from the linear theory, evaluated using Eq. 23. (a) Dependence on Southern Ocean wind stress, τACC , and eddy diffusivity coefficient, κGM , with the basin area and diapycnal diffusivity held constant (at 2 × 1014 m2 and 10−5 m2 s−1 respectively). (b) Dependence on diapycnal diffusivity, κv , and basin area, with the wind stress and eddy diffusivity held constant (at 0.16 N m−2 and 2000 m2 s−1 respectively). In each case, Lx = 2 × 107 m and Ly = 2 × 106 m. The time-dependent volume budget (Eq. 20) can be integrated to give an implicit solution for the evolution of the pycnocline depth. It is assumed that the adjustment takes place following a step change in one (or more) of the volume budget transport terms. All coefficients (TEk , G and D) are assumed constant in the integration. The solution is −Gh2 + TEk h + D = C & G(h − heq ) G(h + heq ) − TEk " ' TEk TEk −2G heq # e− 2Gt A , (22) where C is a constant set by the initial conditions. For a small perturbation ∆h about the equilibrium state, Eq. 22 can be linearized to give: 1 2G ∆h ≈ ∆h0 exp − 1 − t , (23) % A 1 + 1 + 4GD 2 TEk where ∆h0 = ∆h(t = 0). Thus the adjustment timescale is controlled mainly by the mesoscale eddy transport across the ACC (set by G), and the area of the ocean basins to the north of the ACC. The adjustment timescale also depends weakly on the Southern Ocean Ekman transport and global diapycnal diffusivity, through the size of the nondimensional 2 parameter 4GD/TEk . This allows the parameter in brackets in Eq. 23 to vary between 0.5 and 1, altering the timescale by up to a factor of two. The (e-folding) adjustment timescale is plotted as a function of wind stress, eddy diffusivity, diapycnal diffusivity and basin area in Figure 2. The adjustment timescale is typically of order 500 years. 2011] Allison et al.: Spin-up & adjustment of ACC 177 4. Numerical model We now present a series of numerical calculations with a reduced-gravity model to test the analytical theory presented in Sections 2 and 3, for the regime without northern sinking. a. Model formulation The model consists of a dynamically-active surface layer overlying a motionless abyss. The model equations are: ∂u τs + u · ∇u + f k × u + g # ∇h = Ah ∇ 2 u + , ∂t ρ0 h ∂h κv + ∇ · (hu) = ∇ · (κGM ∇h) + , ∂t h (24) (25) where we include the Gent and McWilliams (1990) eddy parameterization and the same parameterization of diapycnal mixing as in Gnanadesikan (1999). The remaining symbols are the horizontal velocity u, layer thickness h, Coriolis parameter f , wind stress τs , lateral viscosity Ah , mesoscale eddy diffusivity κGM and diapycnal diffusivity κv . The equations are discretized on a C-grid (as described in Johnson and Marshall, 2002) with a lateral grid spacing of 1◦ . Time-stepping is with a leap-frog scheme. The model does not include a representation of deep water formation in the northern high latitudes; the experiments presented here are designed to test the analytical theory in the regime where there is no northern sinking. The domain extends from 74◦ S to 65◦ N in latitude and is 97◦ wide in longitude (A ≈ 1014 m2 , Lx ≈ 5 × 106 m), with a circumpolar channel extending from the southern boundary to 56◦ S. Lateral boundary conditions are no normal flow and no slip. The calculations are initialized with a uniform layer thickness of 10 m and no flow, and the model is integrated for 5000 years with applied wind stress and diapycnal mixing. The wind stress is zonal and restricted to a narrow latitude band in the southern hemisphere: " # " # ∆φ ∆φ (x) 2 π(φ − φ0 ) τ = τ0 cos φ0 − ≤ φ ≤ φ0 + , (26) ∆φ 2 2 where φ is latitude and the maximum wind stress is located at φ0 . The wind stress profile in the control experiment is shown in Figure 3a. A very basic representation of high-latitude buoyancy loss is incorporated by strongly relaxing the layer thickness (over 11 days) to its initial value of 10 m at the southern margin of the domain. This acts to keep the layer interface close to the surface at the southern boundary. Reference model parameters are: κGM = 2000 m2 s−1 , κv = 10−5 m2 s−1 , Ah = 16 × 103 m2 s−1 , g # = 0.02 m s−2 . b. Numerical model results The wind stress and equilibrium layer thickness from the control simulation are shown in Figure 3a, with wind forcing confined to the circumpolar channel (τ0 = 0.16 N m−2 , 178 Journal of Marine Research [69, 2-3 Figure 3. (a) Wind stress (N m−2 ) and surface layer thickness (m) at the end of the 5000-year control integration. The contour spacing for the layer thickness field is 100 m, and the 100 m and 800 m contours are labeled. (b) Time series of the basin-averaged (north of 30◦ S) layer thickness (m; solid line, left axis) and circumpolar transport (Sv; dashed line, right axis). φ0 = 62.5◦ S, ∆φ = 14◦ ). The equilibrium circumpolar current is aligned with the latitude of the wind stress and is associated with a strong meridional gradient in layer thickness. North of 40◦ S, the layer thickness varies by less than 4 m, consistent with the rapid (relative to the overall adjustment) erosion of pressure gradients by eastern boundary waves and westward propagating long Rossby waves. Figure 3b shows the evolution of the basinaveraged surface layer thickness in the control simulation, and the circumpolar transport through the model’s representation of Drake Passage. The initial change in circumpolar 2011] Allison et al.: Spin-up & adjustment of ACC 179 Table 1. Summary of numerical model experiments. The maximum wind stress in the westerly jet (τ0 ), the latitude of the wind jet axis (φ0 ), the eddy diffusivity (κGM ) and the diapycnal diffusivity (κv ) are varied. τ0 (N m−2 ) φ0 κGM (m2 s−1 ) κv (m2 s−1 ) Control 0.16 62.5◦ S 2000 10−5 Varying τ0 0.208 0.112 0 Varying φ0 Varying κGM Varying κv 55.5◦ S 48.5◦ S 1000 3000 10−4 transport is approximately linear with time. This can be anticipated from the analytical theory, since diapycnal mixing dominates the adjustment for small h causing the pycnocline to grow as a diffusive boundary layer at a rate proportional to (κv t)1/2 . The adjustment to equilibrium occurs over roughly 2000 years. To test the sensitivity of the solution to the various parameters involved, a further eight model experiments are performed with varying wind stress magnitude τ0 , wind stress latitude φ0 , eddy diffusivity κGM and diapycnal diffusivity κv . Each experiment is integrated for at least 4000 years, and they are summarized in Table 1. c. Comparison between model and theory To calculate the theoretical layer thickness evolution that corresponds to each model simulation, Eqs. 21 and 22 are evaluated using the parameter values from the model. The Southern Ocean transport terms are evaluated using the method outlined in Section 2b (Eq. 16); TEk is integrated over the region of circumpolar streamlines taken from the end of each numerical simulation (the shape of this region varies little during the adjustment), and Ly (used in the evaluation of both Southern Ocean terms) is the mean meridional width of the integration region. Figure 4 shows the evolution of surface layer thickness in the numerical model averaged over the basin (north of 30◦ S) as a function of time for the experiments in which we vary: (a) the wind stress latitude; (b) the wind stress magnitude; (c) the mesoscale eddy diffusivity; and (d) the diapycnal mixing coefficient. Also shown are the theoretical estimates from Eq. 22. There is generally excellent agreement between the results of the numerical model (symbols) and theoretical estimates (lines), both for the magnitude of the equilibrium solution and the adjustment timescale. The one exception is for high levels of diapycnal mixing (dashed curve and triangles in Fig. 4d) where the theory underestimates 180 Journal of Marine Research [69, 2-3 Figure 4. Adjustment of the surface layer thickness, h, as a function of (a) wind stress latitude, φ0 ; (b) wind stress magnitude, τ0 ; (c) mesoscale eddy diffusivity, κGM ; (d) diapycnal mixing coefficient, κv . The symbols show the results from the reduced-gravity numerical model, and lines are the predictions from the analytical theory (Eq. 22). In panel (a), the grey lines show the theoretical spin-up estimates in which TEk is calculated using the peak wind stress and both TEk and TEddies are evaluated using the characteristic width (Ly = 106 m) in Eq. 22 instead of values integrated over the circumpolar streamlines. In all the subfigures, the control experiment is shown with filled circle symbols, and the corresponding theoretical estimate is shown with a solid line. the equilibrium layer thickness. The reason for this discrepancy is not clear, but may be related to the simple way in which diapycnal mixing is parameterized in the model: the upwelling is inversely proportional to the depth of the layer interface, which is very shallow near the southern boundary. The large values of diapycnal mixing which arise here are rather unphysical and not included in the theory, but only significantly influence the model result when the diapycnal diffusivity is set to a very high background value. Figure 4b shows that in both the theoretical estimate and the numerical model, a reasonably deep pycnocline is obtained (deeper than 550 m) without explicit wind forcing. In this simple setup, this corresponds to a circumpolar transport of around 25 Sv. In this regime, diapycnal mixing is the sole process that maintains a deep pycnocline, through the downward mixing of heat. This supports the idea that diapycnal mixing in the basins to the north of the Southern Ocean may play a role in setting the baroclinic transport of the ACC (Munday et al., 2011). 2011] Allison et al.: Spin-up & adjustment of ACC 181 Crucially, the results in Figure 4c show that the adjustment timescale is sensitive to the Southern Ocean eddy diffusivity: the timescale is shorter when the eddy diffusivity is large, consistent with the theoretical prediction from Eq. 23; see Figure 2. The theoretical solution also suggested a subtle influence of the wind stress magnitude and diapycnal diffusivity on the timescale, through the size of the nondimensional parameter in Eq. 23. This effect can be seen in Figure 4b (the adjustment under zero wind stress has a shorter timescale than the adjustment under finite wind stress) and Figure 4d (the timescale is slightly shorter for larger diapycnal diffusivity, although this effect is less obvious). Also shown in Figure 4a (grey lines) is the theoretical prediction using the peak wind stress, τ0 , and the characteristic width of the wind forcing, Ly = 106 m, rather than values obtained by integrating over the circumpolar streamlines following Allison et al. (2010), as discussed in Section 2b. Not only is the variation of the equilibrium pycnocline depth with wind stress latitude reversed, but the adjustment timescale is also significantly underestimated when the integrated values are not used. 5. Impact of northern deep water formation In the previous sections, we have explored the theoretical solution and numerical results for the limit without northern sinking (TN = 0). We now consider the effect that including the northern sinking might have on the solution. The commonly used scaling for TN (Eq. 17) has a squared dependence on h, which if included in the time-dependent volume budget would make an analytical solution difficult to achieve. However, for small perturbations from equilibrium, a linear approximation to TN can be obtained through a truncated Taylor expansion: 5 ∂TN 55 (27) TN (h) ≈ Nc + h ∂h 5h=heq where 5 ∂TN 55 Nc = TN (heq ) − heq ∂h 5h=heq is a constant. These coefficients can be combined with those for TEddies and TEk , so that the surface layer volume budget can be written: 6 7 5 ∂TN 55 D ∂h h+ . A = (TEk − Nc ) − G + (28) ∂t ∂h 5h=heq h The derivative in Eq. 27 should strictly include thermohaline feedbacks associated with a change in the strength of the overturning circulation. However, the commonly used scaling for the northern sinking transport (Eq. 17) relies on the assumption that the meridional (or zonal) density difference in the upper ocean (and assuming the pycnocline outcrops in 182 Journal of Marine Research [69, 2-3 the sinking region, then equivalently g # ) is constant and independent of TN . This relates to the fact that the scaling only accounts for mechanical forcing; it cannot support the thermohaline feedbacks that are fundamental to the dynamics of the overturning circulation (see Johnson et al., 2007; Fürst and Levermann, 2011). Griesel and Morales Maqueda (2006) and Levermann and Fürst (2010) showed that variations in the meridional density difference are important for determining the magnitude of TN , and that the density difference can vary independently of the pycnocline depth, suggesting that g # should not be treated as constant. Furthermore, de Boer et al. (2010) demonstrated that the northern sinking need not be positively correlated with the upper ocean meridional density gradient at all, and suggest that the positive linear relationship seen in most model simulations arises from a thermohaline feedback of the circulation. A second assumption of the scaling in Eq. 17 is that the depth of the level of no motion in the overturning is the same as the depth of the pycnocline. Although Fürst and Levermann (2011) point out that these two depth scales are linked, de Boer et al. (2010) question the validity of this assumption by showing that the two depth scales can respond in opposite ways to changes in forcing, and the level of no motion has a better association with the overturning transport than the pycnocline depth. In the experiments of Griesel and Morales Maqueda (2006), changes in the strength of the overturning were not accompanied by significant changes in the pycnocline depth. These concerns aside, Wolfe and Cessi (2010) highlight the connection with the circumpolar channel by demonstrating that the stratification at the northern edge of the channel provides an appropriate vertical length scale for h in the TN scaling (i.e., that the depth of the pycnocline at the northern edge of the channel sets the depth of the pycnocline throughout the domain, including the latitude of the maximum overturning). The version of the TN scaling that is arguably most applicable to this study is that of Johnson and Marshall (2002), since their method is based on a model of reduced gravity. Using this approach, the northern sinking term scales via: TN ≈ g # h2 . 2fN (29) A comparison of Eqs. 2 and 29 reveals the implication that the baroclinic ACC transport and the transport of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) are approximately equal (since |fS | ≈ fN ). The fact that the observed baroclinic ACC transport (e.g., Cunningham et al., 2003) is many times larger than the observed AMOC transport (e.g., Cunningham et al., 2007) suggests a problem with this common scaling. Also, Fučkar and Vallis (2007) have shown that TN and TACC do not vary together. In their experiments, a decrease in TN leads to a deepened pycnocline and a concomitant increase in TACC . Despite these inadequacies, we may still make some progress by accepting the available scaling for TN (Eq. 29), and assuming that g # is independent of h. Substitution into Eq. 28 leads to 2011] Allison et al.: Spin-up & adjustment of ACC 183 7 " 6 # g # h2eq g # heq ∂h D A = TEk + − G+ h+ , ∂t 2fN fN h (30) where the equilibrium pycnocline depth is now given by the solution to the cubic volume budget: − g # h3eq 2fN − Gh2eq + TEk heq + D = 0, (31) which for an appropriate range of parameter space has one positive real root. The analytical solution to Eq. 30 is equivalent to Eq. 22 with the substitutions TEk → TEk + (g # h2eq /2fN ) and G → G + (g # heq /fN ). It is worth noting that including the northern sinking term leads to a damping effect on the steady state response to a change in forcing (the northern sinking increases in response to a strengthening of the Southern Ocean winds, which suppresses the effect of the forcing), as also found by Radko and Kamenkovich (2011). Figure 5 shows how the adjustment timescale and equilibrium pycnocline depth vary as a function of wind stress, eddy diffusivity, diapycnal diffusivity and basin area, now that a representation of the northern sinking has been included. The timescale can be compared with Figure 2 for the case without TN . Including northern sinking reduces the adjustment timescale from a few hundred years to slightly less than a century. The response of the timescale to variations in key parameters is also altered, particularly the sensitivity to the Southern Ocean wind stress and eddy diffusivity (compare Figure 5a with Figure 2a). In both cases (with and without TN ) the timescale is inversely related to the eddy diffusivity. However, the timescale is less sensitive to the eddy diffusivity when TN is included. The quadratic dependence of the northern sinking term on the pycnocline depth means that, in setting the adjustment timescale, TN dominates over TEddies (which in this framework scales linearly with the pycnocline depth). However, the relative importance of northern sinking and Southern Ocean eddy activity is far from clear, since observations and eddyresolving model experiments show that the eddy field itself exhibits nonlinear behavior (Meredith and Hogg, 2006; Hogg et al., 2008). This issue is partially explored by Jones et al. (2011) who consider the impact of different power laws for the variation of TEddies with h on the e-folding adjustment timescale. Despite the caveats associated with the scalings in the Gnanadesikan (1999) framework, it is clear that both the Southern Ocean eddies and the northern sinking are important for setting the adjustment timescale. 6. Discussion This study has considered the long-term transient response of the baroclinic ACC and global stratification to a change in forcing (such as a step change in Southern Ocean wind stress). We have built upon the analytical model of Gnanadesikan (1999) by introducing time-dependence to the volume budget for the surface layer above the global pycnocline, and 184 Journal of Marine Research [69, 2-3 Figure 5. Adjustment timescale (years) from the linear theory evaluated using the solution to Eq. 30 (i.e., the timescale in Eq. 23 but with reinterpreted coefficients) which includes the effect of northern sinking. (a) Dependence on Southern Ocean wind stress, τACC , and eddy diffusivity coefficient, κGM , with the basin area and diapycnal diffusivity held constant (at 2 × 1014 m2 and 10−5 m2 s−1 , respectively). (b) Dependence on diapycnal diffusivity, κv , and basin area, with the wind stress and eddy diffusivity held constant (at 0.16 N m−2 and 2000 m2 s−1 , respectively). In each case, Lx = 2 × 107 m, Ly = 2 × 106 m and g # = 0.01 m s−2 . The central panels (c,d) show how heq varies with the parameters when TN is included. The lower panels (e,f) show how TN varies throughout the parameter space. 2011] Allison et al.: Spin-up & adjustment of ACC 185 including a more consistent measure of the Southern Ocean transport terms. In this model, the pycnocline depth (and baroclinic ACC) is set by Southern Ocean Ekman transport and basin-wide diapycnal upwelling, which deepen the surface layer, and by Southern Ocean eddies and northern sinking, which counteract the deepening. We first explored the analytical solution for adjustment in the case without northern sinking (noting that its effect can be incorporated into the solution by reinterpreting the coefficients for the other terms), and then presented results from simple numerical simulations with a reduced-gravity ocean model. Finally, we considered the effect of including the northern sinking term. Our results suggest that the e-folding adjustment timescale for the global pycnocline and baroclinic ACC is multidecadal to centennial, with the adjustment taking several centuries to fully complete. We find that without an interactive representation of NADW formation, the long-term adjustment of the ACC is acutely sensitive to the mesoscale eddy diffusivity over the Southern Ocean (with stronger eddy activity leading to a faster adjustment). When a representation of deep water formation in the North Atlantic is included, the adjustment timescale becomes shorter and its sensitivity to Southern Ocean eddy activity is significantly reduced. In both cases, the area of the global ocean is also important for setting the timescale (the timescale is shorter in a smaller domain). The theory also predicts that the Southern Ocean wind stress and global diapycnal mixing may subtly modify the timescale (and the numerical results are suggestive of this) but their effect is substantially weaker than that of the other processes. In this model, it is clear that while the winds and mixing cause the global stratification to deepen, it is the processes which counteract the deepening that set the timescale for adjustment. The relative importance of Southern Ocean eddies and northern sinking for setting the timescale is not clear, because the available scalings for both processes are somewhat inadequate. As discussed in the previous section, the simple dependence of TN on the square of the pycnocline depth cannot account for thermohaline feedbacks associated with changes in the overturning circulation (Johnson et al., 2007; Fürst and Levermann, 2011). The linear scaling for the Southern Ocean eddy transport is also considered to be a severe simplification; eddy-resolving calculations suggest that the ACC can exhibit threshold behavior, with eddy activity increasing markedly in response to changes in wind forcing (Tansley and Marshall, 2001; Hallberg and Gnanadesikan, 2006), as originally anticipated by Straub (1993) (but also see Nadeau and Straub (2009), for an alternative explanation). Observations and eddy-resolving numerical model experiments indicate that eddy energy increases a year or two after an increase in wind forcing (Meredith and Hogg, 2006; Hogg et al., 2008), partially compensating the increased Ekman transport. Such threshold behavior is not captured in models that parameterize eddies. The extent to which threshold behavior occurs on longer, baroclinic timescales remains unknown and awaits eddy-resolving models that can be integrated to equilibrium (Treguier et al., 2010). The outcome that the adjustment can be sensitive to the representation of mesoscale eddy activity is disturbing since Southern Ocean eddy processes remain poorly understood and poorly represented in state-of-the-art climate models. 186 Journal of Marine Research [69, 2-3 Irrespective of any eddy threshold behavior, the global pycnocline deepens only very gradually in response to increased wind forcing, due to the large surface area of the basins north of the ACC. Thus anthropogenic forcing is unlikely to have led to appreciable change in the mean baroclinic transport of the ACC to date, consistent with observations (Böning et al., 2008). However, note that the pycnocline deepens faster in a channel model of limited latitudinal extent, suggesting that results from channel models should be treated with caution. Despite the caveats associated with the representation of northern sinking in our analytical model, the results suggest that this process has the potential to play a central role in setting the long-term adjustment timescale of the baroclinic ACC and the global stratification, and to control the sensitivity of the timescale to Southern Ocean eddy activity. Further work is needed to better understand the relationship between the global pycnocline depth and the rate of deep water formation in the North Atlantic, to properly understand its influence on the adjustment. A corollary of our study is that (depending on the influence of northern sinking) Southern Ocean eddy fluxes may be a rate-limiting process that sets the spin-up timescale for non-eddy resolving coupled ocean climate models. 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Received: 6 April, 2011; revised: 27 June, 2011.
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