Draft 1 Labour provisions in TPP and TTIP: A comparison without a difference? Joo-Cheong Tham and Keith Ewing I A NEW (NEO-LIBERAL) ERA OF LABOUR PROTECTION THROUGH TRADE? Should labour standards be part of international trade regulation? The answer given at the multi-lateral level has been resoundingly ‘no’. Responding to calls to include a ‘social clause’ as part of the World Trade Organisation’s (WTO) agenda, the 1996 Singapore WTO Ministerial Declaration pointedly insisted that the ‘International Labour Organization is the competent body to set and deal with’ ‘the observance of internationally recognized core labour standards’. It further ‘reject(ed) the use of labour standards for protectionist purposes, and agree(d) that the comparative advantage of countries, particularly low-wage developing countries, must in no way be put into question’. 1 With the reaffirmation of this position in the 2001 Doha WTO Ministerial Declaration, 2 the debate over integrating labour standards into the international trading system appeared all but over, with claims that such integration constituted disguised protectionism and would be particularly unfair to less developed countries trumping arguments about the rights of workers and ‘levelling the playing field’ of international trade. The position at the multi-lateral level appears to have been overtaken by what the Director of the International Labour Organisation’s (ILO) Research Department has characterized as a ‘somewhat surprising and largely unexpected’ development 3 - the rapid increase of provisions dealing with labour standards4in bilateral, regional and plurilateral trade agreements.5 The principal question with these agreements no longer seems to be, Should labour standards be part of international trade regulation? – a strong tendency is to presume ‘yes’ to this question. Rather, the key question presently appears to be: How should labour standards be integrated into 1 SINGAPORE WTO MINISTERIAL 1996: MINISTERIAL DECLARATION WT/MIN(96)/DEC, paragraph 4 (Available at https://www.wto.org/english/thewto_e/minist_e/min96_e/wtodec_e.htm) (accessed on 21 January 2016). 2 DOHA WTO MINISTERIAL 2001: MINISTERIAL DECLARATION WT/MIN(01)/DEC/1, paragraph 8 (Available at https://www.wto.org/english/thewto_e/minist_e/min01_e/mindecl_e.htm) (accessed on 21 January 2016). This paragraph stated that: We reaffirm our declaration made at the Singapore Ministerial Conference regarding internationally recognized core labour standards. We take note of work under way in the International Labour Organization (ILO) on the social dimension of globalization. 3 International Labor Organisation, International Institute for Labour Studies, Social Dimensions of Free Trade Agreements (2015) v. 4 See generally Cleopatra Doumbia-Henry and Eric Gravel, ‘Free trade agreements and labour rights: Recent developments’ (2006) 145(3) International Labour Review 185; Clotide Granger and Jean-Marc Sioren, ‘Core Labour Standards in Trade Agreements: From Multilateralism to Bilateralism’ (2006) 40(5) Journal of World Trade 813. For ease of reference, this paper will refer to provisions dealing with labour standards as ‘labour provisions’. 5 These agreements are also referred to collectively as preferential trade agreements. Draft 2 international trade regulation? With this shift, it is no longer a question of ‘free vs fair trade’ but rather what kind of fair trade. 6 Indeed, the rhetoric from key quarters has been on ‘ratcheting upwards’ the labour standards provided under trade agreements. In ongoing negotiations between the European Union (EU) and the United States (US) on the Trans-Atlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP), the European Commission has proposed a chapter on ‘Trade and Sustainable Development’ – which centrally includes labour provisions that it says ‘offers the most ambitious provisions ever put forward on these issues to any trading partner’.7 The US Government has claimed that the recently concluded Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement (TPP) has ‘the strongest protections for workers of any trade agreement in history’, 8 setting a ‘high-water mark for labor protections in a trade agreement’; 9 following closely behind, the Australian Minister for Trade and Investment has said that the TPP ‘includes requirements for the highest labour . . . standards’. 10 Indeed, the ‘Labour’ chapter of the TPP is the most significant set of labour provisions in trade agreements concluded to date because of the scope of this ‘mega-agreement’ and the importance of the chapter to this agreement. After five years of negotiation, the TPP was concluded on 4 October 2015 amongst 12 countries (Australia, Brunei Darussalam, Canada, Chile, Japan, Malaysia, Mexico, New Zealand, Peru, Singapore, United States, and Vietnam) representing 40 per cent of global GDP. 11 The TPP is significant not only for the amount of global trade and investment it (potentially) covers but the approach it is said to have adopted in relation to international trade. Critics noted the significance of the TPP - a trade agreement that has been characterized as ‘no ordinary deal’ underpinned by a ‘neoliberal market model’. 12 On the other side, the leaders of the TPP countries have 6 Two decades ago, Brian Langille insightfully argued that this shift was inevitable: Brian Langille, ‘General Reflections on the Relationship of Trade and Labor (Or: Fair Trade is Free Trade’s Destiny)’ in Jadgish Bhagwati and Robert Hudec (eds), Fair Trade and Harmonization: Prerequisites for Free Trade? Volume 2: Legal Analysis, MIT Press (1996) Chapter 5. 7 European Commission, ‘EU to pursue the most ambitious sustainable development, labour and environment provisions in TTIP’, 6 November 2015, media release (available at http://europa.eu/rapid/press-release_IP-15-5993_en.htm) (accessed on 21 January 2016). 8 https://medium.com/the-trans-pacific-partnership/labour-66e8e6f4e8d5#.mp8nvoqt7 (accessed on 11 January 2016). 9 https://medium.com/the-trans-pacific-partnership/labour-66e8e6f4e8d5#.8ups5mya6 (accessed on 26 January 2016). 10 Andrew Robb, Minister for Trade and Investment, ‘Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) pact to drive jobs, growth and innovation for Australia’, 6 October 2015, media release (available at http://trademinister.gov.au/releases/Pages/2015/ar_mr_151006.aspx; accessed on 11 January 2016) 11 Trans-Pacific Partnership Ministers Statement, 4 October 2015, https://ustr.gov/about-us/policyoffices/press-office/press-releases/2015/october/trans-pacific-partnership-ministers (accessed on 21 January 2016). The TPP has yet entered into force. Parties have two years after the signing of the TPP to ratify the agreement: Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement, Article 30.5. The Parties are due to sign the TPP on 4 February 2016: official ref To enter into force, it has to be ratified by at least at least six of the original signatories, which together account for at least 85 per cent of the combined gross domestic product of the original signatories in 2013: Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement, Article 30.5. Draft 3 said that the agreement provides ‘a new and compelling model for trade in one of the world’s fastest growing and most dynamic region’. 13 Central to this ‘new and compelling model for trade’ is the improvement of labour standards. As a joint statement of the trade ministers of the TPP countries put it, ‘(w)e expect this historic agreement to promote . . . strong labor . . . protections’.14 Key TPP signatories have echoed these sentiments. The US Government has said that the TPP ‘will create a fairer and more level playing field for American businesses and American workers by raising labor standards across the Asia-Pacific’; 15 the Australian Minister for Trade and Investment, has similarly said that ‘The TPP's labour . . . chapter will support efforts to . . . improve labour rights’.16 The significance of the ‘Labour’ chapter has also been underlined by the Legal Director of the International Trade Union Confederation who observed that, ‘(t)he (TPP) labor chapter . . .will create a new template with broad geographic coverage and is likely to be used as a model else- where’.17 This paper tackles the topic of labour standards and trade agreements by providing an exploratory analysis of Chapter 19 of the TPP, its ‘Labour’ chapter, and possible labour provisions for TTIP. 18 It begins by providing a conceptual framework for understanding labour provisions in trade agreements. This framework is firstly based on four key dimensions of labour provisions in trade agreements: their purposes, the legal nature of the provisions (whether binding or not), the substance of legal obligations imposed and the institutional processes provided for. Secondly, the framework draws attention to two dominant approaches to these provisions, the EU and US approaches: the former can be understood as proposing a broad agenda based on promotional measures while the latter is underpinned by a narrow agenda based on conditional 12 Jane Kelsey, ‘Introduction’ in Jane Kelsey (ed), No Ordinary Deal: Unmasking the Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement (2010) 9. 13 TPP Leaders’ Statement – 18 November 2015 (available at http://dfat.gov.au/trade/agreements/tpp/news/Pages/tpp-leaders-statement.aspx) (accessed on 11 January 2016). 14 Available at https://ustr.gov/about-us/policy-offices/press-office/pressreleases/2015/october/trans-pacific-partnership-ministers (accessed on 11 - January 2016) (emphasis added). 15 https://medium.com/the-trans-pacific-partnership/labour-66e8e6f4e8d5#.mp8nvoqt7 (accessed on 11 January 2016). 16 Malcolm Turnbull, Prime Minister, and Andrew Robb, Minister for Trade and Investment, ‘Historic Asia-Pacific Trade Agreement Opens New Era of Opportunities’, 6 October 2015, media release (available at http://www.pm.gov.au/media/2015-10-06/historic-asia-pacific-trade-agreement-opensnew-era-opportunities) (accessed on 11 January 2016). 17 Jeffrey S Vogt, ‘The Evolution of Labor Rights and Trade – A Transatlantic Comparison and Lessons for the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership’ (2015) 18 Journal of International Economic Law 827, 835. 18 It should not be assumed that this chapter is the only one of relevance to labour standards. For example, Chapter 10: Cross-Border Trade in Services and Chapter 12: Temporary Entry for Business Persons have clear implications for labour mobility and migration. More broadly, increased trade openness resulting from the TPP will also impact upon labour standards. Draft 4 measures. Applying this framework, the chapter explains how the ‘Labour’ chapter of the TPP largely adopts the current US approach to labour provisions. This analysis is followed by preliminary observations on the the impact of labour provisions in trade agreements on domestic labour standards. Whilst a complex set of factors will shape such impact, we speculate – specifically in relation to the labour provisions in TPP and TTIP - whether it will be the power of the United States that will prove decisive in determining whether these provisions have positive, neutral or negative impact on domestic labour standards. And if so, labour provisions in trade agreements – including those in TPP and TTIP - will lay the ground for American labour standards being established as the global standard. II LABOUR PROVISIONS IN TRADE AGREEMENTS A Key dimensions There has been a dramatic increase of trade agreements with labour provisions. According to a recent ILO study, only four trade agreements included labour provisions in 1995 but the number increased to 21 in 2005. In 2013, 58 out of the 248 trade agreements notified to the WTO contained such provisions. 19 While trade agreements with labour provisions were concentrated in North-South trade agreements, the study also noted an increasing number of South-South agreements that included such provisions 20 (Brown has similarly noted how, in contrast with USAsia trade agreements, inter-Asian agreements tended not to include labour provisions). 21 There is a growing body of scholarship seeking to analyse the content of these provisions and one point is abundantly clear – these provisions are characterized by significant diversity. 22 Four dimensions are of particular importance in understanding such diversity. 19 International Labor Organisation, International Institute for Labour Studies, Social Dimensions of Free Trade Agreements (2015) 19. See also Jordi Agusti-Panareda, Franz Christian Ebert and Desiree LeClercq, Labour Provisions in Free Trade Agreements: Fostering their Consistency with the ILO Standards System (2014, ILO Background Paper) Figure 1. 20 International Labor Organisation, International Institute for Labour Studies, Social Dimensions of Free Trade Agreements (2015) 1, 21. 21 Ronald C Brown, ‘Asian and US perspectives on labor rights under international trade agreement’ in Axel Marx et al, Global Governance of Labour Rights: Assessing the Effectiveness of Transnational Public and Private Policy Initiatives (2015), Edward Elgar, Chapter 5. 22 See, for example, Sandra Polaski, ‘Protecting labour rights through trade agreements: An analytical guide’ (2004) 10(13) Journal of International Law and Policy 13; Sandra Polaski and Katherine Vyborny, ‘Labor clauses in trade agreements: Policy and practice' (2006) 10(25) Integration and Trade 95; Jacques Bourgeois, Kamala Dawar and Simon Evenett, A Comparative Analysis of Selected Provisions in Free Trade Agreements (2007), paper commissioned by the Directorate-General of Trade of the European Commission; Betram Boie, Labour related provisions in international investment agreements (2012) International Labour Office, 22-26; Jordi Agusti-Panareda, Franz Christian Ebert and Desiree LeClercq, Labour Provisions in Free Trade Agreements: Fostering their Consistency with the ILO Standards System (2014, ILO Background Paper); International Labor Organisation, International Institute for Labour Studies, Social Dimensions of Free Trade Agreements (2015). Draft 5 The first concerns the purposes of the provisions. 23 The (contested) purposes commonly attributed to these provisions are that they aim to reduce unfair competition in international trade by promoting a ‘level playing field’ in working conditions; and in doing so, prevent a ‘race to the bottom’ in terms of labour standards and ‘social dumping’ (the practice of using inferior working conditions to enhance product competitiveness). Associated with these aims is that of protecting the rights of workers, whether as labour rights and/or human rights. 24 More recently, the goal of promoting sustainable development has been ascribed to labour provisions with such provisions allied to environmental standards. 25 Of course, a distinction should be made between the stated and the actual purposes of the labour provisions. There can – will often – be a gap between both. Some commentators have concluded, for one, that labour provisions are principally a strategy to make trade liberalization more politically acceptable in developed countries. 26 In a similar vein, concerns have been raised that such provisions are merely ‘window dressing’. 27 The second dimension turns on the legal nature of these provisions: do they impose legal obligations or merely provide for non-binding clauses (e.g. in the preamble)? 28 The third dimension concerns the substance of legal obligations imposed. Two key questions arise here: Are the obligations ‘soft’ (e.g. ‘strive to ensure’) or ‘hard’ (e.g. ‘will ensure’)? 29 What is the scope of the obligations? 30 Cutting across these questions is the manner in which the labour provisions refer to international labour standards, in particular, ILO instruments. In 2015, two third of these provisions referred to ILO instruments with most referring to the ILO Declaration on Fundamental Principles and Rights at Work (ILO 1998 Declaration) while only 15 per cent of these provisions referring to the ILO fundamental conventions.31 23 See generally Jean-Marc Sioren, ‘Labour provisions in preferential trade agreements: Current practice and outlook’ (2013) 152(1) International Labour Review 85. 24 For a critical analysis of these purposes, see Michael Trebilcock and Robert Howse, Regulation of rd International Trade, Routledge, (3 edition, 2005) 559-563. 25 For a study of the use of unilateral trade measures for this purpose, see Olivier de Schutter, Trade in the Service of Sustainable Development: Linking Trade to Labour Rights and Environmental Standards, Hart Publishing (2015). 26 Christopher Erickson and Daniel Mitchell, ‘The American Experience with Labor Standards and Trade Agreements’ (1999) 3 The Journal of Small and Emerging Business Law 41. 27 International Labor Organisation, International Institute for Labour Studies, Social Dimensions of Free Trade Agreements (2015) v. 28 Jacques Bourgeois, Kamala Dawar and Simon Evenett, A Comparative Analysis of Selected Provisions in Free Trade Agreements (2007), paper commissioned by the Directorate-General of Trade of the European Commission, 23-24; Betram Boie, Labour related provisions in international investment agreements (2012) International Labour Office, 12-18. 29 Jacques Bourgeois, Kamala Dawar and Simon Evenett, A Comparative Analysis of Selected Provisions in Free Trade Agreements (2007), paper commissioned by the Directorate-General of Trade of the European Commission, 12-14. 30 Jacques Bourgeois, Kamala Dawar and Simon Evenett, A Comparative Analysis of Selected Provisions in Free Trade Agreements (2007), paper commissioned by the Directorate-General of Trade of the European Commission, 25-29. 31 International Labor Organisation, International Institute for Labour Studies, Social Dimensions of Free Trade Agreements (2015) 107, Figure 4.1. Similarly, in 2013, more than four out of five trade Draft 6 The question of scope of obligations also throws up a host of issues going beyond international labour standards. Are other areas covered by the labour provisions, for instance, minimum level of labour protection beyond international standards, enforcement and public participation in the development and implementation of labour laws? Do the obligations apply only when trade or investment between the State Parties is affected or do they apply generally? The fourth – and crucial – dimension concerns the institutional processes adopted relation to the labour provisions. A threshold question here is whether these processes apply before the trade agreement is ratified (pre-ratification) or only after ratification (post-ratification). 32 There is also the issue of the institutions and agencies empowered with monitoring implementation and compliance with the labour provisions, in particular, whether there is an agency independent of the State Parties such as the ILO is provided under the labour provisions.33 The fourth dimension implicates a distinction between conditional and promotional elements of labour provisions in trade agreements. As explained by the ILO: In the case of conditional elements, labour standards requirements are linked to economic consequences, in the form of sanctions or, less frequently, incentives, which concern trade or other benefits, including technical cooperation. Promotional elements combine (binding or non-binding) commitments relating to labour standards with cooperative activities, dialogue, and monitoring. 34 Conditional provisions subject the obligations under the labour provisions to a dispute-settlement mechanism while labour provisions that rely exclusively upon promotional measures exempt these obligations from such a mechanism (which would tend to apply to other provisions of the trade agreement). 35 agreements with references to ILO instruments referred primarily or exclusively to the ILO Declaration on Fundamental Principles and Rights at Work (ILO 1998 Declaration) while a fifth referred to specific Conventions: Jordi Agusti-Panareda, Franz Christian Ebert and Desiree LeClercq, Labour Provisions in Free Trade Agreements: Fostering their Consistency with the ILO Standards System (2014, ILO Background Paper) 9, Figure 2. 32 International Labor Organisation, International Institute for Labour Studies, Social Dimensions of Free Trade Agreements (2015) Chapter 2. See discussion in relation to TPP: US Labor Advisory Committee on Trade Negotiations and Trade Policy, Report on the Impacts of the Trans-Pacific Partnership (2015) (available at https://ustr.gov/sites/default/files/Labor-Advisory-Committee-forTrade-Negotiations-and-Trade-Policy.pdf) (accessed on 25 January 2016) 66-67. 33 Jacques Bourgeois, Kamala Dawar and Simon Evenett, A Comparative Analysis of Selected Provisions in Free Trade Agreements (2007), paper commissioned by the Directorate-General of Trade of the European Commission, 14-15, 29-33 34 International Labor Organisation, International Institute for Labour Studies, Social Dimensions of Free Trade Agreements (2015) 21. 35 Jacques Bourgeois, Kamala Dawar and Simon Evenett, A Comparative Analysis of Selected Provisions in Free Trade Agreements (2007), paper commissioned by the Directorate-General of Trade of the European Commission, 14-15, 29-33 Draft 7 B The EU and US approaches The diversity of labour provisions in trade agreements and their various dimensions do not mean that dominant approaches cannot be identified. The increase in labour provisions in trade agreements since the 1990s has largely been attributed to US and EU foreign policies. 36 In the case of the EU, commentators have noted how the EU is increasingly willing to exercise power through trade – to use its market power to ‘export’ its laws, standards, values and norms (as distinct from exercising power in trade, that is, to use market power to secure access to export markets). 37 The question of power highlights how the geo-politics of the international trade regime deeply affect whether labour provisions are adopted in trade agreements and their content. In this respect, the ability of the EU and US to effect their policies in relation to labour provisions in trade agreements is not unrelated to the level at which negotiations are being conducted. The proliferation of bilateral, regional and plurilateral trade agreements is commonly traced to the stalled discussions at the multilateral level.38 The shift away from multilateral negotiations, however, alters the power dynamics between negotiating States, potentially increasing the vulnerability weaker trading nations to demands of the stronger nations; the WTO has observed in relation to this shift that ‘(i)t may be that new international trade rules are being negotiated and decided outside the WTO in a setting where differences in power are greater’.39 The EU and US approaches have – and are – evolving. 40 At the same time, it is possible to identify their current approaches: the EU approach from the labour provisions it has proposed for TTIP (and associated material) in a draft chapter on ‘Trade and Sustainable Development’; 41 and the US approach from the 2007 36 See Jeffrey S. Vogt, ‘The Evolution of Labor Rights and Trade—A Transatlantic Comparison and ’ Lessons for the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (2015) 18 Journal of International Economic Law 827–860. Canada has also been active in negotiating labour provisions into its trade agreements: ibid 827. 37 Axel Marx et al, ‘Global governance through trade: an introduction’ in Jan Wouters et al (eds), Global Governance through Trade: EU Policies and Approaches (2015) Edward Elgar, 4. The distinction between exercising power in trade and through trade originates from an article by Meunier and Nicolaidis: Sophie Meunier and Kalypso Nicolaidis, ‘The European Union as a conflicted trade power’ (2006) 13(6) Journal of European Public Policy 906-925. 38 Axel Marx et al, ‘Global governance through trade: an introduction’ in Jan Wouters et al (eds), Global Governance through Trade: EU Policies and Approaches (2015) Edward Elgar, 2. 39 WTO, World Trade Report 2011: The WTO and preferential trade agreements: From co-existence to coherence (2011) 187-188. See also Australian Productivity Commission, Trade & Assistance Review 2013-2014 (2015) 15. 40 See Jeffrey S. Vogt, ‘The Evolution of Labor Rights and Trade—A Transatlantic Comparison and ’ Lessons for the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (2015) 18 Journal of International Economic Law 827–860. 41 European Union, EU Textual Proposal: Trade and Sustainable Development, published on 6 November 2015 (available at http://trade.ec.europa.eu/doclib/docs/2015/november/tradoc_153923.pdf; accessed on 20 January 2016) Draft 8 Bipartisan Trade Deal 42 and its negotiating objectives in relation to TPP.43 Table 1 below summarises these approaches in relation to the purposes and obligations of the labour provisions while Table 2 does the same in relation to the institutional processes of the labour provisions. 42 https://ustr.gov/sites/default/files/uploads/factsheets/2007/asset_upload_file127_11319.pdf (accessed on 20 January 2016) 43 https://ustr.gov/tpp/Summary-of-US-objectives (accessed on 20 January 2016). Draft 9 Table 1: The present US and EU approaches to purposes and obligations of labour provisions in trade agreements Purposes provisions Obligations International standards of labour US approach • Ensuring ‘level playing field’ • Ensuring respect for worker rights EU approach • Promoting sustainable development • Upholding existing labour standards • Promoting labour standards globally labour • • • • Adopt and maintain in laws and policies principles as stated in ILO 1998 Declaration Violation only when occurs in a manner affecting trade or investment between the parties • • • • Support realization of ILO Decent Work Agenda In accordance with ILO 1998 Declaration, laws and practices to respect etc ‘the internationally recognized core labour standards, which are the subject of the fundamental ILO Conventions’ Obligation above elaborated through: Reference to ILO and UN Conventions; Identification of key principles; Stipulation of specific obligations (including promoting world-wide implementation of the principles). Sustained efforts to ratify fundamental ILO Conventions and ‘priority and other ILO Conventions that are classified as up to date by the ILO and their Protocols’ Effective implementation of ratified ILO Conventions (bearing in mind Recommendations) ‘(C)onsult and cooperate as appropriate’ in relation to ‘cooperation with and in third countries’ in relation to ILO core labour standards and fundamental ILO Conventions Draft 10 Table 1: The present US and EU approaches to purposes and obligations of labour provisions in trade agreements (continued) Obligations Minimum level of protection (apart from obligations relating to international standards) Laws establishing ‘acceptable conditions of work’ • • • • Waiver and derogation Not to waive or derogate from labour laws in a manner that affects trade or commerce • • Protectionism No Enforcement • • Domestic policies and laws to ‘provide for and encourage high levels of protection’ Parties to ‘strive to continue to improve those policies and laws and their underlying levels of protection’ Laws to protect health and safety Laws to protect decent working conditions Not to waive or derogate from labour laws as an encouragement for, or in a manner affecting, trade or commerce ‘(V)iolation of fundamental principles and rights at work cannot be invoked or otherwise as a legitimate comparative advantage’ ‘(L)abour standards should not be used for . . . protectionist trade purposes’ Obligation to effective enforce labour laws Violation only when non-enforcement occurred: through a sustained or recurring course of in/action; and in a manner affecting trade or investment between the parties. ‘(R)ecognise the need for an adequate system of labour inspections’ Procedural guarantees No No Transparency and public participation in development and implementation of labour laws Corporate Social Responsibility Voluntary sustainability assurance schemes No Requirement of transparency and public participation No Promote CSR including through adherence to internationally agreed guidelines and principles Encourage voluntary sustainability assurance schemes Discourage trade in goods by forced labour Draft 11 Table 2: The present US and EU approaches to institutional processes of labour provisions in trade agreements Pre-ratification mechanisms Post-ratification monitoring enforcement mechanisms Independent agency Domestic mechanisms US approach Has been required of some countries EU approach No No Mechanism for public to raise concerns with respective governments with obligation on governments to consider and respond Consultative mechanism • State-State processes • Same as applies to other obligations in the trade agreement • • and Dialogue between parties Dispute-settlement processes and remedies EU principal emphasis on promotional measures TTIP proposal yet to be released Draft 12 Table 1 highlights how the scope of the labour provisions differ significantly under the EU and US approaches with the former adopting a far broader agenda. This is evident in two ways. First, unlike the US approach, the EU approach proposes obligations that go beyond the ILO 1998 Declaration to extend to other ILO instruments, including the core ILO Conventions, and also to key UN Conventions; second, public participation in the development and implementation of labour laws is central to the EU approach but not so with the US approach. Both these aspects are connected to the underlying purpose of the current EU approach - the promotion of sustainable development – which encompasses but goes beyond the purposes of the US approach (promoting a ‘level playing field’ and respecting workers’ rights). Breadth of agenda does not necessarily spell vagueness. Indeed, it could be said that the EU approach towards the obligations under labour provisions is more detailed than the US approach. The US approach is restricted to the ILO 1998 Declaration (due in no small part to its non-ratification of six out of the eight fundamental ILO conventions). 44 The EU approach also hinges upon the 1998 Declaration and the four areas it covers (freedom of association and right to collective bargain; elimination of forced or compulsory labour; effective abolition of child labour; equality and nondiscrimination in respect of employment). EU’s proposed labour provisions for TTIP, however, go beyond the ILO 1998 Declaration to refer to the various Conventions and stipulate key principles and specific obligations in these areas.45 Table 2 summarises how the two approaches deal with institutional processes relating to the labour provisions. And again there is a notable difference. Table 2 indicates that, while there are promotional elements in the US approach (e.g. dialogue between the Parties), it is strongly based on conditional measures both at the pre-ratification and post-ratification stages.46 While the EU’s proposal in relation 44 The eight fundamental ILO Conventions are: 1) Freedom of Association and Protection of the Right to Organise Convention, 1948 (No. 87); 2) Right to Organise and Collective Bargaining Convention, 1949 (No. 98); 3) Forced Labour Convention, 1930 (No. 29); 4) Abolition of Forced Labour Convention, 1957 (No. 105); 5) Minimum Age Convention, 1973 (No. 138); 6) Worst Forms of Child Labour Convention, 1999 (No. 182); 7) Equal Remuneration Convention, 1951 (No. 100); and 8) Discrimination (Employment and Occupation) Convention, 1958 (No. 111) . Of the eight, the US has only ratified 5) and 6) above, see http://www.ilo.org/dyn/normlex/en/f?p=NORMLEXPUB:10011:0::NO::P10011_DISPLAY_BY,P10011_C ONVENTION_TYPE_CODE:1,F (accessed on 1 February 2016). 45 European Union, EU Textual Proposal: Trade and Sustainable Development, published on 6 November 2015 (available at http://trade.ec.europa.eu/doclib/docs/2015/november/tradoc_153923.pdf; accessed on 20 January 2016) Article 5 (Freedom of association and right to collective bargaining); Article 6 (Elimination of forced or compulsory labour); Article 7 (Effective abolition of child labour); Article 8 (Equality and non-discrimination in respect of employment and occupation). 46 See Chapter 2 of International Labor Organisation, International Institute for Labour Studies, Social Dimensions of Free Trade Agreements (2015) for US emphasis on conditional measures. Draft 13 to institutional processes for the TTIP’s labour provisions has yet to be released, its traditional emphasis has been on promotional measures. 47 In sum, the EU approach is one of a broad agenda based on promotional measures while the US approach can be characterized as one of a narrow agenda based on conditional measures. 47 See Chapter 3 of International Labor Organisation, International Institute for Labour Studies, Social Dimensions of Free Trade Agreements (2015) for US emphasis on conditional measures. Draft 14 The ‘Labour’ Chapter of the TPP: An American Approach to Labour Protection through Trade Agreements Table 3 makes clear how the TPP ‘Labour’ chapter largely corresponds to the current US approach to labour provisions in trade agreements. C Table 3: The TPP ‘Labour’ chapter and the US approach to labour provisions in trade agreements Purposes of labour provisions TPP ‘Labour’ chapter Similar to US approach Obligations International standards Identical to US approach Minimum level of protection (apart from obligations relating to international standards) Waiver and derogation Similar to US approach Protectionism Obligation in addition to US approach Enforcement Identical to US approach Procedural guarantees Obligation in addition to US approach Transparency and public participation in development and implementation of labour laws Corporate Social Responsibility Similar to US approach Voluntary sustainability assurance schemes Identical to US approach Institutional mechanism Consistent with US approach processes: Pre-ratification Narrower than US approach as limited to rights as stated in ILO 1998 Declaration and ‘acceptable conditions of work’ Obligation in addition to US approach Institutional processes: Post-ratification monitoring and enforcement mechanisms Independent agency Similar to US approach Domestic mechanisms Similar to US approach Dialogue between parties Similar to US approach Dispute-settlement processes and remedies Similar to US approach Draft 15 As indicated by Table 3, most aspects of the chapter are identical or similar to the US approach. 48 The obligations in relation to protectionism and corporate social responsibility are in addition to those proposed by this approach but these are not obligations of significance: the obligation on ‘protectionism’ may be unenforceable given the lack of definition as to what is ‘protectionism’ and the obligation in relation to corporate social responsibility is merely a very ‘soft’ obligation to ‘endeavour to encourage’. The two areas of departure from the US approach of greater significance concern the obligations in relation to waiver and non-derogation and procedural guarantees. The first results in weaker labour protection under the TPP. While the US approach proposes obligations in relation to waiver and non-derogation that apply to all labour laws, the TPP’s ‘Labour’ chapter confines it much more narrowly to inconsistency with rights under the ILO 1998 Declaration and in special trade zones, the weakening of these rights or ‘acceptable conditions of work’. 49 The second area of departure, obligations concerning procedural guarantees, on the other hand, results in more stringent obligations as the US approach does not propose any such obligations. The strong correspondence between the TPP’s ‘Labour’ chapter and the US approach is hardly a matter of coincidence. The US was clearly the dominant party – by far – in the TPP negotiations. As Kelsey noted before the TPP was concluded, ‘(t)here is really only one certainty’ with the TPP – ‘that US trade strategy and negotiating demands will determine the shape of negotiations and the prospects for a final agreement’. 50 The US government itself has characterized the TPP as the opportunity for America to write ‘the rules of the road’ in Asia.51 With the labour provisions in particular, the US government has said that the ‘TPP helps ensure that the global economy reflects our interests and values by requiring other countries to play by fair wage, safe workplace and strong environmental rules that we help set’.52 The US Labor Advisory Committee on Trade Negotiations and Trade Policy, a statutory body comprising of union officials, has argued in relation to 48 The US Labor Advisory Committee on Trade Negotiations and Trade Policy has said that ‘(t)he TPP's Labor Chapter broadly meets the standards of the “May 10” Agreement’: US Labor Advisory Committee on Trade Negotiations and Trade Policy, Report on the Impacts of the Trans-Pacific Partnership (2015) (available at https://ustr.gov/sites/default/files/Labor-Advisory-Committee-forTrade-Negotiations-and-Trade-Policy.pdf) (accessed on 25 January 2016) 50. See also discussion in Jeffrey S Vogt, ‘The Evolution of Labor Rights and Trade – A Transatlantic Comparison and Lessons for the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership’ (2015) 18 Journal of International Economic Law 827, 835-836. 49 See text above accompanying nn? Jane Kelsey, ‘Introduction’ in Jane Kelsey (ed), No Ordinary Deal: Unmasking the Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement (2010) 12. 51 https://ustr.gov/tpp/#what-is-tpp (accessed on 26 January 2016). 52 https://ustr.gov/tpp/#strategic-importance (accessed on 26 January 2016). 50 Draft 16 the TPP’s ‘Labour’ chapter that ‘(t)he core part of the Chapter is a mere copy’ of the labour provisions in the US-Peru trade agreement. 53 The TPP does not merely correspond to the US approach – it adopts the US approach. III PRELIMINARY OBSERVATIONS ON THE IMPACT OF LABOUR PROVISIONS IN TRADE AGREEMENTS ON DOMESTIC LABOUR STANDARDS (OR WHY WE MIGHT END UP WITH AMERICAN RULES) Questions now arise about the likely implications of labour provisions in trade agreements as regulatory instruments at national level. In particular are they likely to raise standards? The answer here is complex, and it is unlikely that there will be a clear and simple answer. The impact of these provisions will be determined by a range of circumstances including their content (and whether the EU or US approach is adopted) and measures taken by signatories to implement the provisions domestically and also to monitor the compliance of other signatories with the provisions. These measures will be shaped, in turn, by the strength of the commitment to genuinely implementing these provisions - a matter influenced by the level of domestic support for the provisions - and the implementation burden (the extent and intensity of regulatory effort required for the signatories to implement the provisions). These measures will also be affected by the disparity in the level of labour standards amongst the signatories: those with lower standards are less likely to monitor – let alone complain about – the lack of compliance with the labour provisions by those with higher standards; conversely, signatories with higher standards may be more likely to be concerned about non-compliance by signatories with lower labour standards. Cutting across all these factors is the crucial question of the power relations amongst the signatories – the more powerful countries are in a position not only to shape (dictate) the content of these labour provisions but also determine the nature and extent of their compliance. Given these diverse factors, we would expect the impact of labour provisions in trade agreements on domestic labour standards not only to vary according to the trade agreement but also according to the particular signatory country and possibly also within countries themselves. And here, so far as we can tell at this stage, there are three possible effects, in the sense that these agreements will affect different countries in different ways. In some cases there may be a positive impact; in some cases the impact will be neutral; and in other cases there will be a negative impact. 53 US Labor Advisory Committee on Trade Negotiations and Trade Policy, Report on the Impacts of the Trans-Pacific Partnership (2015) (available at https://ustr.gov/sites/default/files/Labor-AdvisoryCommittee-for-Trade-Negotiations-and-Trade-Policy.pdf) (accessed on 25 January 2016) 65 Draft 17 We illustrate below how these different types of impact have resulted from labour provisions in trade agreement with a focus on the TPP’s labour provisions and those proposed for TTIP. What we highlight here is the preponderance of US power such that the regulatory centre of gravity is likely to settle on something with which the US will be comfortable, and will reflect the US approach to labour standards as a result. Here it is to be recalled that although there is a heavy reliance on the ILO Declaration on Fundamental Principles and Rights at Work (1998), only two of the eight conventions by which that Declaration is informed have been ratified by the US. 54 A Positive impact The capacity for trade agreements to have a positive effect on labour standards (without prejudice to the application of these standards in practice) depends in large measure on the nature of the agreement and the parties to it. TPP is an agreement which is perhaps most calculated to have the greatest positive impact in national labour standards, not because of the general terms of the labour chapter which as we have seen reproduce the terms of many bilateral FTAs, but because of the bilateral agreements negotiated by the US and Brunei, Malaysia and Vietnam respectively. The latter are much more specific, coercive and conditional than is the case in most FTAs, typically drafted in much more general terms. All of these countries have low levels of ratification of ILO Conventions and high levels of non-compliance with those which they have ratified. So Brunei has been an ILO member only since 2007 and has ratified only two conventions (both on child labour), concerns having been expressed about its compliance with both Conventions 138 and 182. Having addressed earlier concerns about child pornography, the outstanding issue relating to the latter was the slow response to dealing with children in hazardous occupations. 55 Nevertheless, Brunei has agreed to make significant changes across five different fields, namely freedom of association, forced labour, child labour, discrimination in employment, and working conditions, in the last case committing to legislate for a minimum wage for private sector workers. The far reaching freedom of association guarantees address the need to protect the independence of trade unions from employer and State interference, the need for remedies to deal with acts of antiunion discrimination, as well as establishing procedures for dealing with collective bargaining and amendments to guarantee the right to strike. 56 54 These are Conventions 105 (Forced Labour Convention, 1957), and Convention 182 (Worst Forms of Child Labour Convention, 1999). The USA has ratified only 14 Conventions. 55 ILO Committee of Experts, Observations (2015): http://www.ilo.org/dyn/normlex/en/f?p=1000:13100:0::NO:13100:P13100_COMMENT_ID:3242312 (accessed 13 April 2016). 56 TPP (2015), Chapter 19 (US-BN Labour Constituency Plan): https://ustr.gov/sites/default/files/TPPFinal-Text-Labour-US-BN-Labour-Consistency-Plan.pdf (accessed 13 April 2016). Draft 18 Malaysia has ratified only 17 Conventions, including six of the core conventions (all except Conventions 87 and 111, though Convention 105 was denounced in 1958 and is not now in force). However, the ILO CEACR has expressed concerns about Malaysia in relation to forced labour and the freedom of association, the concerns in the latter case applying to the excessive delays faced by unions seeking recognition by employers for collective bargaining purposes, the high threshold of support required in order to secure recognition, the failure of employers to comply with recognition orders and restrictions on the scope of collective bargaining. 57 Although impervious to ILO criticism, it seems that Malaysia has yielded to US demands, committing in the TPP side agreement to undertake radical surgery to its labour laws, 58 with the US Trade Representative triumphantly reporting that Malaysia commits to remove restrictions on union formation and strikes that have been in place for decades; to limit governmental discretion in registering and canceling a trade union; to allow foreign workers to assume leadership positions in unions (after working in the country for a period of time); and to remove restrictions on the subjects on which workers can collectively bargain with their employers. Malaysia also commits to address concerns that outsourcing or subcontracting may be used to undermine freedom of association or collective bargaining rights. 59 As with the Brunei side-agreement, the US agreement with Malaysia establishes a government-to-government review mechanism to oversee its implementation. In the case of Vietnam, it is further provided that ‘the United States may withhold or suspend tariff reductions for Vietnam if Vietnam does not comply with its commitment to provide the right to form labor unions across enterprises and at higher levels within five years’. 60 Vietnam has ratified 17 ILO Conventions, including five of the eight fundamental conventions, two of the exclusions being Conventions 87 and 98 (freedom of association). In the two years prior to the conclusion of TPP, the ILO CEACR had expressed concern about the application of forced labour, child labour and discrimination conventions by Vietnam.61 All of these matters are addressed in the US – Vietnam side agreement, though it is clear from the foregoing that the United States was 57 ILO Committee of Experts, Observations (2015): http://www.ilo.org/dyn/normlex/en/f?p=1000:13100:0::NO:13100:P13100_COMMENT_ID:3255358 (accessed 13 April 2016). 58 For detail, see TPP (2015), Chapter 19 (US-MY Labour Constituency Plan): https://ustr.gov/sites/default/files/TPP-Final-Text-Labour-US-MY-Labour-Consistency-Plan.pdf (accessed 13 April 2016). 59 Office of the US Trade Representative, Chapter (19) Summary: https://ustr.gov/sites/default/files/TPP-Chapter-Summary-Labour-1.pdf (accessed 13 April 2016). 60 Ibid. 61 ILO, Committee of Experts, Observations 2013 (forced labour, child labour); 2015 (discrimination). On the latter, see http://www.ilo.org/dyn/normlex/en/f?p=1000:13100:0::NO:13100:P13100_COMMENT_ID:3254726 (accessed 13 April 2016). Draft 19 more concerned with freedom of association about which there is no consideration by the ILO. The great bulk of the detailed 10 page labour reform project demanded by the US is dedicated to what will be the long slow process towards a US system, with Vietnam to embrace concepts such as good faith bargaining and rights-based strikes. 62 These are important initiatives and it may not matter that TPP is being used by the US for nakedly protectionist reasons if the purpose and effect is to raise standards on core questions. The coercive use of TPP in this way would however be more compelling if the strategy was used more widely to apply to all countries in breach of core Conventions, and if the author of the strategy was to set an example not only by ratifying all eight of the core Conventions, but also by fully complying with them. As it is, the United States has ratified fewer Conventions than either Malaysia or Vietnam, and as we have seen has ratified only two of the eight core Conventions. B Neutral impact In contrast to these atypical provisions of TPP, it seems improbable in many cases that the general provisions of FTAs will have much impact on labour standards. An indication of this close to home is the effect of the bilateral agreement concluded between Australia and the US during the Howard era. Apparently at US insistence, this agreement had a detailed labour chapter with a commitment by the parties to strive to ensure that its laws provide for labour standards consistent with the internationally recognised labour principles and rights set forth.63 In a flush of naïve enthusiasm (albeit informed by concerns expressed publicly by the Howard government), 64 it was thought that the latter agreement would require Australia to take steps to amend domestic law and bring it into line with ILO standards. 65 That did not happen, and indeed Australia’s renewal of its commitment to ILO standards did not prevent the enactment of Work Choices just after the agreement was signed. It is true that steps were taken subsequently by the Rudd government to repeal much of the Howard legacy. But in doing so, there is no evidence that the FTA played any part in this process, which in any event appeared not fully to satisfy the demands of ILO Convention 87, with the Committee on Freedom of Association 62 TPP (2015), Chapter 19 (US-VN Plan for Enforcement of Trade and Labour Relations (https://ustr.gov/sites/default/files/TPP-Final-Text-Labour-US-VN-Plan-for-Enhancement-of-Tradeand-Labour-Relations.pdf) (accessed 13 April 2016). 63 Australia - USA Free Trade Agreement (2004), para 18.2 64 The Australian, 6 May 2003 (‘Labour laws threaten US trade pledge’). Note that the Australia – Singapore FTA also negotiated by the Howard government did not contain a labour clause, unlike the US-Singapore FTA. 65 K D Ewing, ‘The Price of Free Trade' (2003) 9(7) Employment Law Bulletin 1. Draft 20 commenting adversely on a number of provisions in the Fair Work Act in a CEPU complaint soon after enactment. 66 Nor is there any evidence that the Australia – US FTA has had any effect on raising standards in the USA, in relation to which the ILO CFA has also concluded that national law (in the shape of the National Labor Relations Act 1935 – the so-called Wagner Act) does not satisfy ILO principles on freedom of association. This is because of restrictions on union officials’ right of access to employers’ premises during organizing campaigns, 67 and the rule introduced by the Supreme Court in NLRB v McKay Radio, 68 whereby striking workers can be permanently replaced (but not dismissed – work that one out). The Australia – US agreement reveals a core weakness in FTAs at least so far as any expectation that they may raise standards is concerned. This is that both parties enter the agreement in breach of its terms with no intention of complying with these terms, or in the case of the United States with no power to comply with its terms. As already pointed out, the USA has not ratified six of the core ILO Conventions on which the FTA obligations are built, and it appears to be politically impossible to increase the level of ratification because of the need for Senate approval, which appears to be impossible to obtain. The same problem arises in relation to amending US labor law to bring it closer into line with the ILO principles which are reflected in the freedom of association conventions, as most clearly revealed by Obama’s failure (albeit for the want of a single vote) to make progress with his Employee Free Choice Act (EFCA), a modest measure which would have addressed some of the rigidities of the NLRA, for example by allowing ‘card check’ rather than elections to secure certification as a bargaining agent. But this still would not have taken the USA all the way to compliance with ILO freedom of association standards. 69 It is at this point that the USA and the EU begin to converge, despite the differences of approach highlighted above. The EU as a matter of course enters into FTAs with countries which at the point of the agreement are in breach of the obligations they have undertaken to respect. A good example of this highlighted elsewhere relates to Korea, which has been the subject of excoriating criticism by the ILO supervisory bodies on freedom of association, and which again has not ratified several of the core Conventions. 70 There is no indication in the six years since the agreement was concluded that matters are set to change. 66 ILO, Committee on Freedom of Association, Complaint No 2698 (Australia): http://www.ilo.org/dyn/normlex/en/f?p=1000:50001:0::NO:50001:P50001_COMPLAINT_FILE_ID:289 7911 (accessed 13 April 2016). 67 ILO, Committee on Freedom of Association, Complaint No 1523 (USA). 68 304 US 333 (1938). See ILO, Committee on Freedom of Association, Complaint No 1543 (USA). 69 On EFCA, see S Estreicher (ed), Labor and Employment Law Initiatives and Proposals under the Obama Administration (2011). 70 ILO, Committee on Freedom of Association, Complaint No 359 (Korea). Draft 21 Yet the EU is in the process of signing off a FTA with Canada (CETA), which contains the same commitments to ILO standards, despite the fact that Canada has not ratified ILO Convention 98, 71 and despite the fact that Canada has been the subject of more complaints to the ILO’s CFA than perhaps any other developed country.72 Canada’s violation of ILO standards with illiberal labour laws is remarkable and counter-intuitive, all the more so for the willingness of the Supreme Court of Canada warmly to embrace ILO standards in its now very progressive interpretation of the Charter of Rights and Freedoms. 73 But it is not only the EU’s trading partners that are in breach of the labour commitments they solemnly undertake to observe. So too are EU member states, the United Kingdom being a notorious example, 74 having as recently as 2015 (at the time TTIP negotiations were taking place) being told by the Committee of Experts that proposed legislation violated ILO Convention 87.75 Yet the United Kingdom is not alone, a recent study showing that no fewer than ** of 28 EU member states are in breach of the freedom of association conventions alone.76 Work now needs to be done on the other six core conventions. C Negative impact The proposed TTIP has been promoted as creating the biggest free trade area in the world. It may also be the biggest free trade area built in the biggest lie yet told on international labour standards. It is an agreement to which both the parties are committing themselves to standards with which they do not comply, have no intention of ever complying with, and have no power to comply with fully. In the case of the USA, as we have seen the lack of power is for political reasons; in the case of the EU it is for legal reasons, the ECJ having developed a body of jurisprudence that has been found to violate ILO Convention 87.77 71 On which see B Langille, ‘The Freedom of Association Mess: How We Got into It and How We Can Get out of It’ (2009) 54 McGill LJ 177. 72 See K D Ewing, ‘’The Lady Doth Protest Too Much, Methinks – The Right to Strike, International Standards and the Supreme Court of Canada’ (2015) 18 Canadian Labour and Employment Law Journal 517. 73 Saskatchewan Federation of Labour v Saskatchewan 2015 SCC 4; [2015] SCR 245. See J Fudge, ‘Constitutionalizing Labour Rights in Canada and Europe: Freedom of Association, Collective Bargaining, and Strikes’ (2015) 68 Current Legal Problems 267. 74 ILO, Committee of Experts, Observations (1989): http://www.ilo.org/dyn/normlex/en/f?p=1000:13100:0::NO:13100:P13100_COMMENT_ID:2077801 (accessed 13 April 2016). 75 ILO Committee of Experts, Observations (2015): http://www.ilo.org/dyn/normlex/en/f?p=1000:13100:0::NO:13100:P13100_COMMENT_ID:3255351 (accessed 13 April 2016). 76 K D Ewing and J Hendy, ‘The Eclipse of the Rule of Law: Trade Union Rights and the EU’ (2015) 4 Revista Derecho Social y Empresa 80. 77 Case 438/05, International Transport Workers Federation v Viking Line ABP [2007] I-ECR 10779, and Case 341/05, Laval un Partneri Ltd v Svenska Byggnadsarbetareförbundet, Svenska Byggnadsarbetareförbundets avdelning 1, Byggettan and Svenska Elektrikerförbundet [2007] I-ECR Draft 22 So it is not only EU member states that are in breach of the commitments in FTAs; so too is EU law itself, the latter immutable in the sense that it can be changed only by the Court itself. In these circumstances, what is the incentive on the part of either party to enforce the terms of the agreement against the other? Although there is a greater economic balance between the parties (EU and US), the Australia – US agreement points the way to a stalemate of non-compliance, in which neither side provokes the other for fear of a mutually destructive tit – for – tat response. From the perspective of European trade unionists (who are hostile to TTIP, as are their US counterparts), this nevertheless would be the most desirable outcome of the agreement in the likely event that it is successfully concluded. The fear (and the likelihood) is that TTIP will have a negative impact on labour standards in the EU, even if it is the EU FTA model that is adopted in preference to the American. These fears are most keenly felt in relation to collective bargaining, partly because of the different collective bargaining systems operating in the US and the great bulk of EU member states. 78 These differences reflect the different role of collective bargaining and the different levels of coverage in the two ‘systems’. In the bulk of EU states (the UK being a notable exception), collective bargaining has a ‘regulatory’ function in the sense that it operates on a multi-employer basis, at sectoral level or above, setting terms and conditions for the sector as whole, and in some cases capable of extension to employers who were not parties to the agreement. In the US in contrast, collective bargaining has a ‘representative’ function, the union acting as a ‘bargaining agent’ for a ‘bargaining unit’ within an enterprise. Function and level (though mainly the latter) are crucial in determining collective bargaining density, with the EU average of **% comparing favourably with US figures which may be as low as 6% in the private sector. It is at this point that the difference between the EU and US approaches to labour rights in FTAs collapses and makes no difference. Even assuming the US agrees to the apparently more progressive EU model on labour rights, the pressure towards regulatory convergence in a competitive market is likely to lead only one way, which will be the American rather than the European way. There are two reasons for this. The first is that the EU bargaining model is one that the US cannot reach, even if it were to ratify ILO Convention 87. Apart from the fact that it would require a profound political change in the United States to create the 11767 See an excellent collection of essays discussing these important cases, see M R Freedland and J Prassl (eds), Viking, Laval and Beyond (2015). On the ILO CEACR response, see ILO Committee of Experts (2009) (United Kingdom): http://www.ilo.org/dyn/normlex/en/f?p=1000:13100:0::NO:13100:P13100_COMMENT_ID:2314990 (accessed 13 April 2016). 78 This issue is more fully explored in K D Ewing, ‘The EU, the USA, and TTIP – Collective Bargaining and the Emerging ‘Transnational Labor Relations Act’ (2016) Theory and Struggle, Journal of the Marx Memorial Library (forthcoming). Draft 23 legislation necessary to reflect the EU collective bargaining model, it is in any event the case that regulatory bargaining of the kind found throughout the EU would almost certainly be unconstitutional in the US, following the Schechter Poultry case in 1935. 79 This is because regulatory bargaining is a rule making process that would usurp the legislative power of Congress. So even if the political will was there, the US cannot meet the EU bargaining model. On the contrary, the Wagner Act is likely to operate as a magnet pulling EU collective bargaining systems in the direction of the American, not only because US investors will eschew European bargaining methods. In doing so they will be encouraged by the European Commission, already pushing in the direction that the magnet is pulling. By a combination of new economic governance initiatives adopted in 2010 and financial assistance conditionality, steps are already well underway to decentralize in the American direction. 80 The fear is that free trade will pull and push the European collective bargaining model in the direction of the Wagner Act. This would not in itself be in breach of the FTA’s commitment to promote ILO standards on freedom of association, as the ILO supervisory bodies do not prescribe any particular form or level of collective bargaining, which should be a matter of choice for the bargaining parties. 81 But such a development would almost certainly be a negative consequence of free trade if - as is likely – decentralization were to lead to the spectacular decline in coverage witnessed in the UK. IV CONCLUSION As we have seen, there are different models of FTA, a distinction being drawn in this paper between the European and the American. It is also the case that demands made by FTAs vary considerably. Putting the EU and NAFTA to one side as structures which are sui generis, the FTAs which have been the subject of this paper have developed from instruments of a largely promotional nature (such as the Australia – US FTA), to instruments that superficially create a more formal expectation of compliance (TPP and TTIP), to instruments that impose mandatory obligations on States. Regardless of the model, however, the impact of FTA’s labour law is likely to vary greatly, from the positive to the neutral to the negative. The positive effect is most likely to be seen in countries with poorly developed standards, where the agreement is reinforced by coercive intervention as in the case of the TPP side agreements 79 Schechter Poultry Corp v US, 295 US 495 (1935). See A Koukiadaki, I Tavora and M Martinez Lucio, ‘The EU is exporting UK neoliberalism to the rest of Europe’ (IER Blog, 2016). 80 81 ILO, General Survey on the fundamental Conventions concerning rights at work in light of the ILO Declaration on Social Justice for a Fair Globalization, 2008 (2012), para 222. Draft 24 addressed to Brunei, Malaysia and Vietnam. But it would of course be unrealistic to expect these standards in developing countries ever to rise to the level of advanced countries such as the USA, which will take more than the warm words of an FTA and enthusiastic US support to raise standards. For highly developed systems such as those in the EU in contrast it is likely that FTAs will accelerate the tendency towards declining standards. In this regard our focus has been primarily with freedom of association and collective bargaining, which is where we see the potential negative impact to be greatest. The process is likely to be slow and gradual, but inevitable and irreversible. The overall effect is thus likely in time to lead to the extension and consolidation of the US system of collective bargaining globally and to a future as a result in which collective bargaining is an atypical practice in all countries. For all their possible benefits and potentially good intentions, it is difficult to break free from the suspicion that FTAs are being used mainly by the US simultaneously for aggressive protectionism and expansionism, a suspicion reinforced by the revealing marketing by the US Trade Representative. 82 It is about protecting US jobs from unregulated labour markets, and protecting US investment from heavily regulated labour markets. As a result it is about taking US law as the standard for America’s trading partners, in a world in which the Natonal Labor Relations Act becomes the Transnational Labor Relations Act. 82 See Office of the US Trade Representative, Chapter (19) Summary: https://ustr.gov/sites/default/files/TPP-Chapter-Summary-Labour-1.pdf (accessed 13 April 2016): ‘The Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) levels the playing field for American workers and American businesses, leading to more Made-in-America exports and more higher-paying American jobs here at home’.
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