New Issue: Moody's revises New Orleans' (LA) outlook to stable; assigns A3 to $65M GO Taxable Public Improvement Bonds, 2015A Global Credit Research - 06 Mar 2015 A3 affirmed on outstanding parity debt NEW ORLEANS (CITY OF) LA Cities (including Towns, Villages and Townships) LA Moody's Rating ISSUE Taxable Public Improvement Bonds, Issue of 2015A Sale Amount $65,000,000 Expected Sale Date 03/18/15 Rating Description General Obligation RATING A3 Moody's Outlook STA NEW YORK, March 06, 2015 --Moody's Investors Service has assigned an A3 underlying rating to the City of New Orleans', LA, $65 million General Obligation (GO) Taxable Public Improvement Bonds, 2015A. At the same time we affirm the A3 rating on outstanding parity debt. We also affirm the A3 rating on $195.8 million in Limited Tax Refunding Bonds Series 2012 as well as $710,000in Limited Tax Audubon Park Bonds issued in 1996. We have also revised the outlook on the bonds to stable from negative. SUMMARY RATING RATIONALE The A3 ratings are influenced by the strengthening local economy which is large and continues to expand at a stable pace, a modest improvement in the financial performance and position of the city's operating funds, and high annual fixed costs when compared to the budget. The ratings also incorporate ongoing challenges the city faces, which include narrow liquidity, management of consent decrees, and a poorly funded pension plans and OPEB obligations. The A3 ratings also take into consideration considerable strength as provided by oversight from the Board of Liquidation. OUTLOOK We have revised the outlook to stable from negative which reflects the city's ability to approach structural balance within its operating funds, produce two years of modest operating surpluses, regain positive year-end General Fund balances, and commitment to building reserve levels. Future credit reviews will focus on the city's ability to successfully manage funding its various pension plans as well as address growing fixed costs, which remain a challenge. WHAT COULD MAKE THE RATING GO UP - Trend of solid balance sheet performance with sustained improvement in reserve position - Significant decline in debt profile - Continued expansion of tax base with improved socioeconomic indices - Successful management and reduction of pension burden WHAT COULD MAKE THE RATING GO DOWN - Lack of improvement in financial metrics and prolonged weak liquidity - Inability to manage growing fixed costs including pension burden - Unforeseen challenges related to firefighter pension plan, consent decrees, or litigation STRENGTHS - Large, stable tax base that is expanding - Strong sales tax and property tax collection growth - Modest improvement in financial operations and liquidity - Board of Liquidation oversight CHALLENGES - Poor funding of pension plans - Ongoing consent decrees - Weak liquidity RECENT DEVELOPMENTS Recent developments are captured in the detailed credit discussion. DETAILED RATING RATIONALE ECONOMY AND TAX BASE: LOCAL ECONOMY EXPANDS; SHORT TERM AND LONGER TERM PROSPECTS REMAIN POSITIVE We anticipate near-term expansion within the city's large tax base, given ongoing development and recent solid growth in taxable assessed valuation. The expanding local economy is a particular credit strength. The city's current estimated population is roughly 379,000 which is below pre-Katrina totals, yet represents continued modest annual growth. For fiscal 2015 the city's total taxable assessed valuation is a sizeable $3.80 billion (or an equalized full valuation of approximately $27.87 billion), which reflects a solid 6.9% growth over the previous year. The five-year compound annual growth in taxable value is solid at 4.6% and reflects ongoing development in the city. The city's local economy has historically been driven by tourism, trade, oil and gas operations, port operations, healthcare, and higher education. The city's top taxpayers make up a modest 10.6% of total assessed valuation, and include a casino, hotel, retail shopping center, a coffee roasting plant, and utilities. The city is also home to Tulane University (11,944 students, A2 stable) and acts as a regional center for healthcare operations and services. Officials note several ongoing and new developments currently underway in the city. Viking Cruises, a river and ocean cruise line, announced it will start its North American operations at the Port of New Orleans, including an office location. Viking Cruises has plans to construct six new vessels over the next several years and cruises are anticipated to begin traveling the Mississippi River as soon as 2017. The Veterans Affairs Hospital ($1 billion) is nearing completion and is on track to start receiving patients in 2016. Operations at the Riverwalk retail shopping mall remain strong following a $70 million renovation that was completed in 2014. There are also several major real estate developments that will soon house major retail chains. Strong growth in sales tax collections is one indication that commercial and retail development in the city is stable. Socioeconomic indices for the city are below average, evidenced by a per capita income and median family income of 93.2% and 71.7% of national levels, respectively. The December 2014 unemployment rate for the city was 7.1%, which was above that of the state (6.2%) and the national average (5.4%) for the same time frame. The December 2014 unemployment rate was 1.6% higher than the same time in the previous year. Moody's Economy notes short term and longer term prospects for the region remain strong and positive. Moody's Economy reported in November 2014 that New Orleans-Metairie-Kenner's recovery will accelerate heading into 2015. Private services and trade will drive growth, along with an expanding healthcare segment. Yet a shrinking public sector will cancel some gains, leaving New Orleans shy of a complete recovery. Moody's Economy also reported that long term, sluggish population growth will leave the metro area trailing the South. FINANCIAL OPERATIONS AND RESERVES: IMPROVING FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE DRIVEN BY GROWING TAX COLLECTIONS AND CLOSE MONITORING OF EXPENDITURES; LIQUIDTY REMAINS NARROW Modest improvement in the city's financial operations is a credit positive that is reflected in the revision of the outlook to stable. Future credit reviews will focus on the city's ability to maintain a trend of stable balance sheet performance while building currently weak liquidity to adequate levels. Following several years of significant operating deficits, the city's operating fund performance has improved modestly as a result of expenditure management, conservative revenue assumptions, and strong tax revenue growth. For the first time since fiscal 2009, surplus operations resulted in a positive year-end (December 31) General Fund balance. At fiscal year-end 2013 the city's General Fund balance totaled a modest $16.9 million (or a still narrow 3.1% of General Fund revenues) which reflected an increase of $26.3 million over fiscal year-end 2012. Moody's notes, for fiscal 2013 the city's combined total actuarial shortfall for funding of its pension obligations was $23.4 million which would negate the modest surplus realized in the General Fund. In order to get closer to structural balance, the city would need to address its pension funding shortfall. In fiscal 2013, growing sales tax collections aided financial performance. Sales tax collections in fiscal 2013 totaled $176.4 million which reflects an 8.1% increase over the previous year. Fiscal year 2013 General Fund revenues were primarily derived from sales taxes (32% of total General Fund revenues), property taxes (26%), charges for services (14.4%), and licenses and permits (11.5%). Officials report solid financial performance through fiscal 2014, which is due in part to continued positive growth in property and sales tax revenues, as well as close monitoring of expenditures. Total General Fund revenues for fiscal 2014 are estimated at $520 million (unaudited) and total expenditures are $511 million. City officials anticipate a modest $9.0 million surplus for the General Fund at fiscal year-end 2014, and growth in unassigned Fund balance to $17.38 million from $8.3 million. Moody's notes fiscal 2014 assumptions do not include Library Fund operations and state supplemental pay which is ultimately incorporated into the General Fund for auditing purposes. The city's fiscal 2014 audit is anticipated to be published in June of 2015. While operating funds are projected to generate a modest surplus, the city again contributed approximately $20 million below actuarially required contributions. Full contributions to the pension systems would eliminate the surplus and reduce reserves. The city has adopted a balanced budget within its operating funds for fiscal 2015 with modest revenue growth assumptions including a 4% budgeted growth in sales tax collections. The fiscal 2015 budget includes a $2.6 million increase in police department consent decree funding over the previous year, 5% pay raises for all officers, $11.7 million in additional funds for the fire fighter pension to comply with court order, and $35.6 million in direct appropriations and other city payments for sheriffs. Moody's notes that while the additional $11.7 million in funding for the fire fighter pension plan is an improvement over fiscal 2014, the full annual actuarial requirement has yet to be met. Preliminary unaudited property tax collections are up 4.3% over 2014 including protest payments, and up a more modest 3.2% without protest payments. Despite ongoing challenges which include rising health care, worker's compensation, and retirement system costs, as well as pending Federal consent decrees regarding the Police Department and the Orleans Parish Sheriff's Office, officials' near-term financial projections indicate modest operating surpluses in the General Fund and management acknowledges a commitment to building reserves if positive budget variances are realized. Liquidity Liquidity in the General Fund remains weak and narrow given the city's sizeable budget. At fiscal year-end 2013 the city's General Fund cash and investment position had improved to $14.6 million (a weak 2.7% of General Fund revenues), a modest improvement from the narrow liquidity at fiscal year-end 2012 $3.63 million (0.7%). Given stable financial performance in fiscal 2014, General Fund cash is expected to grow modestly. The city's ability to manage ongoing budgetary pressures as well as maintenance of stable balance sheet performance while building reserves will be influencing factors in the rating moving forward. DEBT AND PENSIONS: SIGNIFICANT FIXED COSTS INCLUDE A HIGH DEBT PROFILE, POORLY FUNDED PENSIONS, AND GROWING OPEB Debt structure We believe the debt profile of the city albeit high, will remain manageable in the near-term. The city's direct debt burden is 3.0% of full value and 1.38 times 2013 operating revenues, which is above average. The city's overall debt burden is also above average at 3.7%. Post-sale the city will have roughly $572 million in GO bonds outstanding and an additional $213 million in outstanding Limited Tax Bonds. The city also has $74.7 million in outstanding GO Zone obligations and an additional $18 million in HUD loans and notes outstanding. Debt service costs comprised a high 16.4% of operating expenditures in 2013. Positively, over the last several years roughly $240 million worth of community disaster loans have been forgiven which has significantly improved the debt profile of the city. The current $65 million issuance will exhaust the city's remaining bond authorization from the 2004 election. City officials are considering returning to voters in the near-term for additional bond authorization, yet no concrete plans have been made to date. A credit strength of the current issue of bonds and the city's debt profile is oversight provided by the Board of Liquidation. All ad valorem taxes levied by the city for the payment of GO bonds are transferred to the Board of Liquidation. The Board has the authority to enforce imposition and collection of sufficient taxes for the payment of GO bonds upon a failure of the City Council to do so. Additionally, the Board has the authority to bill and collect taxes itself, although this is not currently envisioned. We continue to view the existence of the Board and its roles and responsibilities related to debt and taxation as a certain credit positive that is an influencing factor in the current rating. Debt-Related Derivatives In 2004 the city issued Variable Rate Revenue Bonds which are payable from payments made by Canal Street Development Corporation and Downtown Development District pursuant to a Cooperative Endeavor Agreement and from payments made by the city from the General Fund. As of March 2, 2015, $7.07 million of the Canal Street Revenue Bonds were outstanding. We do not anticipate the modest variable rate exposure within the city's debt profile to present challenges in the near to medium term. Pensions and OPEB The city's pension and OPEB obligations remain a significant credit challenges for the city. New Orleans has consistently contributed below actuarial requirements to its single-employer pension plans, deferring costs to future years. The city has four single-employer pension plans, the Employees' Retirement System, two plans for Firefighters (new and old), and a closed police plan. The City also participates in the Municipal Police Employees' Retirement System, which is a statewide cost-sharing plan. The city's contributions to the Municipal Police plan are set by state statute. In fiscal 2013, New Orleans contributed approximately $52 million to its single-employer pension plans, $23.4 million, below actuarial requirements. The bulk of the shortfall, $22 million, was attributable to its new firefighters pension plan. The city's actuarial contribution shortfalls to these plans amounted to approximately 4% of the city operating revenues in fiscal 2013. In 2013 a civil district court judge ordered the City to pay $17.5 million to meet the City's 2012 contribution requirement to the firefighters' pension plan, the most poorly funded of the city's plans. In late 2014 a task force, which includes vested parties from the city, firefighters, and third party consultants, was established to address funding of the system moving forward that is viable and acceptable to all parties. Future reviews will consider any outcomes and changes to the system and its funding ultimately result from this process. Moody's fiscal 2013 adjusted net pension liability (ANPL) for the City, under our methodology for adjusting reported pension data, is a sizeable $1.23 billion, or 2.14 times operating revenues. Moody's ANPL reflects certain adjustments we make to improve comparability of reported pension liabilities. The adjustments are not intended to replace New Orleans' reported liability information, but to improve comparability with other rated entities. We determined New Orleans' share of liability for the state-run Municipal Police Employees' Retirement System in proportion to its contributions to the plan. Moody's ANPL reflects support for pension obligations by funds operated by the city that are outside the General Fund (Accounting for roughly 35% support for the Employees' Retirement System and 0.8% support for Municipal Police Employees' Retirement System). The city contributed $7.7 million to its fiscal 2013 other post employment benefits (OPEB) cost of $10.0 million. The City currently funds its OPEB obligation on a pay-go basis. The Unfunded Actuarial Accrued Liability (UAAL) at fiscal year-end 2013 was $149.7 million. The city's fixed costs, including debt service, total actuarial pension requirements costs, and OPEB obligations, totaled a sizeable $201.8 million, or a significant 32.8% of operating revenues, in fiscal 2013. We expect the city's ongoing costs to service its debt and retiree obligations will continue to pose a budget challenge. MANAGEMENT AND GOVERNANCE Cities in Louisiana have an institutional framework score of 'Aa' or moderate. The majority of LA cities' operating revenues are derived from sales taxes and property taxes. Sales tax collections are historically unpredictable as a major revenue. Cities have the ability to increase both property tax and sales tax millages with voter approval. Major expenditures for cities are moderately stable, given that public safety (police and fire) is typically cities' major expenditure. Cities do not have significant constraints with expenditure reduction. The city has a Mayor-Council plan of government. The Mayor, as the chief executive officer, is elected for a fouryear term. The Council consists of five members elected from districts and two members elected at large, all for four-year terms. Over the last several years, management has taken prudent steps to address operating pressures, cut expenditures to balance the operating fund budget, and acknowledges a commitment to building reserves. Future reviews will continue to examine management's willingness to address ongoing challenges such as fully funding annual pension obligations. KEY STATISTICS - 2015 Full valuation: $27.87 billion (Total Assessed Valuation equal to $3.80 billion) - Full value per capita: $73,549 - Median Family Income: 71.7% of US - Operating Fund balance as a % of operating revenues: 15.4% - 5 year dollar change in operating Fund balance as a % of operating revenues: -4.22% - Cash balance as a % of operating revenues: 15.37% - 5 year dollar change in cash balance as a % of Revenues: -4.10% - Institutional Framework: Aa - Operating history: 5 year average of operating revenues/operating expenditures: 0.98x - Net direct debt/full value: 3.05% - Net direct debt/operating revenues: 1.38x - 3 year average of Moody's adjusted net pension liability/full value: 5.13% - 3 year average of Moody's adjusted net pension liability/operating revenues: 2.14x OBLIGOR PROFILE The city was founded in 1718, incorporated in 1805, and with an estimated population of 379,000 is the largest populated city in the state. The city is located in the southeastern portion of the state and lies along the Mississippi River near the Gulf of Mexico. LEGAL SECURITY The bonds are secured by and payable from ad valorem taxes upon all the property subject to taxation within the city in an amount sufficient to pay the principal and interest on the bonds. USE OF PROCEEDS The bonds will exhaust the city's bond authorization from 2004. Proceeds from the sale will be used for improvement of streets, parks and playgrounds, public libraries and other public buildings. RATING METHODOLOGY The principal methodology used in this rating was US Local Government General Obligation Debt published in January 2014. Please see the Credit Policy page on www.moodys.com for a copy of this methodology. 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