Conference: Barcelona Model United Nations 2016
Forum: Middle East and North Africa Commission
Issue: Risk of nuclear proliferation in the Middle East
Student Officer: Maria Juliana Fernandez
1. Introduction
The risk of a nuclear war or attack has been at the back of everyone’s mind since around the Cold War. At one
point, there were more than 30,000 Nuclear Weapons worldwide. Now, with around 15,375 of these deadly
weapons, it is not that different.
Overall, the Middle East is ripped
apart by conflict: countries fight for
religious
reasons,
supplies,
supremacy… Currently there are about
six conflicts that are ongoing in the
Middle East: the civil war in Syria, the
war in Yemen, the Israel-Palestine
conflict, the sectarian conflict in
Lebanon, the Kurdish conflict and the
war against the Islamic State in Iraq. It
does not end there– tensions between
countries like Saudi Arabia and Iran
are persistent. Thus, it would take one
country to start nuclear plans for the
rest to not hesitate to start their own: no one wants to get left behind.
Furthermore, Terrorist attacks happen daily, hitting both far and close to home, and we may wonder: how did
these people get these weapons? and, if they got these, what stops them from gaining even more powerful
weapons? Somehow gaining access to a nuclear weapon really does not seem that hard, considering nuclear
weapons have already been lost in the past.
Major concerns for nuclear proliferation exist in the Middle East. In the first place, the Stockholm
International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) states that Israel has nuclear weapons and Israel has not having
signed the Nuclear Non Proliferation Treaty. Furthermore, Iran has the means to enrich uranium which is the
first step on the road to acquiring nuclear weapons. Although Iran has recently signed a major accord, known
as the Iran Nuclear Deal by which Iran agreed not to move forward to produce a nuclear warhead, many fear
Iran will try to do so. Due to the pressure of having a neighboring country on the path to possessing nuclear
weapons, there are now several states in the area which have the capacity to develop a nuclear weapons
program.
2. Definition of key terms
Nuclear Proliferation: Nuclear proliferation is used to describe the spread of fissile material, weaponsapplicable nuclear technology and information, to nations not recognized as “Nuclear Weapon States” by the
Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons.
→ look into this website for a more thorough analysis of the definition:
http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/10736700.2015.1070048
Nuclear Non Proliferation: the effort to eliminate the spread of nuclear weapon technology, and to reduce
existing stockpiles of nuclear weapons.
Weapons of Mass Destruction: A weapon of mass destruction is one with the capacity to inflict death and
destruction on such a massive scale and so indiscriminately that its very presence in the hands of a hostile
power can be considered a grievous threat. Modern weapons of mass destruction are either nuclear, biological,
or chemical weapons.
Arms Race: the situation in which two or more countries try to have more and stronger weapons than the
other
International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA): an autonomous, international organization formed in 1957 that
seeks to promote the use of science and technology for peaceful purposes and to restrain its use for military
purposes. States complying with non-proliferation treaties, such as the NPT, undergo a series of inspections
by the IAEA. These promote the safe, secure and peaceful use of nuclear technologies.
Treaty on the Non Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT): It is a landmark international treaty, opened for
signature in 1968 and which entered into force in 1970. The treaty represents the only binding commitment in
a multilateral treaty to the goal of disarmament by the nuclear-weapon States. A total of 190 parties have
joined the Treaty, including the five nuclear-weapon States, making it the arms limitation or disarmament
agreement with the highest number of countries that have ratified it, reflecting its importance. It is aimed
towards preventing the spread of nuclear weapons and weapons technology, promoting cooperation in the
peaceful uses of nuclear energy and has the further the goal of achieving nuclear disarmament and general and
complete disarmament. For further information, consult:
https://www.iaea.org/sites/default/files/publications/documents/infcircs/1970/infcirc140.pdf
3. Background Information
Arms Races:
Issues surrounding Nuclear Weapons fall back to World War II, when the Manhattan Project was introduced
and the United States dropped the atomic bombs, “Little Boy” And “Fat Man”, on the Japanese cities of
Hiroshima and Nagasaki. These disastrous blasts ended the war, but marked the beginning of a new era.
Soon, to the surprise of the United States, Russia was running nuclear tests, causing the United States to
produce more weapons, and so on.
An arms race in the Middle East is a very concerning hypothetical. The Iran Deal is very clearly an effort by
the United Nations to stop something like this from happening: if Iran gets ahold of a Nuclear weapon, it
could trigger other countries in the region to seek the materials needed to make one to counter Iran. While
negotiations took place, five other countries began plans of Nuclear Energy, and although they seem peaceful,
no country, besides Israel, in the Middle East had a Nuclear Program until Iran. Also, nuclear energy is seen
as the first step towards the acquisition of nuclear weapons.
“There is also a prestige factor: keeping up with the neighbors.”
- Mark Fitzpatrick, a former U.S. State Department nuclear expert who now runs the nonproliferation and
disarmament program at London’s International Institute for Strategic Studies
Iran Nuclear Deal: The deal limited Tehran’s, the capital of Iran, nuclear ability in return for lifting
international oil and financial sanctions by curbing Iran’s ability to put uranium or plutonium to use in
weapons.
According to the New York Times, the agreements include these main points:
“Iran has agreed to transform its deeply buried plant at Fordo into a center for science research. Another
uranium plant, Natanz, is to be cut back rather than shut down. Some 5,000 centrifuges for enriching uranium
will remain spinning there, about half the current number. Iran has also agreed to limit enrichment to 3.7
percent and to cap its stockpile of low-enriched uranium at 300 kilograms, or 660 pounds, for 15 years. That is
considered insufficient for a bomb rush”
“Iran has agreed to redesign and rebuild the Arak reactor so it will not produce weapons-grade plutonium. The
original core of the reactor, which would enable the production of weapons-grade plutonium, will be made
inoperable, but will stay in the country. Under the terms of the deal, the reactor’s spent fuel, which could also
be used to produce a bomb, will be shipped out of the country. Iran will not build any additional heavy water
reactors for 15 years”
∗ Look at http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2015/03/31/world/middleeast/simple-guidenuclear-talks-iran-us.html?_r=0, for an interactive and simple guide to the Iran nuclear deal.
As of now, as seen in the image above, the only country in possession of Nuclear Weapons in the Middle East
is Israel.
* Although many people believe Pakistan is in the Middle East, it is not: it is part of South Asia.
Israel is a complicated country in this issue:
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Because they are a close ally of the Unites States, it is argued that some Western countries have paid
very little attention to Israel’s nuclear moves.
“The founder of the State of Israel and the country’s first prime minister, David Ben-Gurion, made it
his mission to ensure that the one homeland for the Jewish people would be protected from an everpresent threat of Arab attack” (DePetris)
∗ Could complicate the ongoing Israel-Palestine conflict
∗ Other countries in the Middle East want Nuclear Weapons too to maintain a balance of
power.
Israel built their Nuclear Arsenal secretly, with help from India and Pakistan.
o It is believed Israel now has 80 nuclear weapons, and they are not being monitored
o Israel did not sign the NPT
▪ Although they did not break the NPT, they did break other treaties when they tested
their bomb.
According to The Guardian: “The list of nations that secretly sold Israel the material and expertise to
make nuclear warheads, or who turned a blind eye to its theft, include today's staunchest campaigners
against proliferation: the US, France, Germany, Britain and even Norway” (Borger)
Israel’s nuclear program was an obstacle for the Iran Nuclear Deal:
o Why was Israel allowed to have secret nuclear activities and Iran was not?
Nuclear Terrorism:
Although the Cold War was a period of great worldwide fear, the nuclear issues we have right now are of
great difference: Before, it was trained politicians who had knowledge about nuclear deterrence. If a Terrorist
organization, the same who are willing to blow themselves up, get ahold of a weapon like this: they will not
think twice.
The big issue here is to make sure those organizations do not get ahold of nuclear weapons, directly from a
nuclear weapon states, acquiring the materials needed. Al-Qaeda is the terrorist organization that has shown
the most interest to acquire a nuclear weapon. Thanks to the fact that there are fewer countries now with the
materials to build a bomb and better nuclear security measures, the threat lessens but persists.
4. Major countries and organizations
“timeline”:
→ source: http://www.jewishvirtuallibrary.org/
→ View full timeline of countries here
Saudi Arabia
Saudi Arabia is gravely concerned about nuclear proliferations, especially by Iran, but aware Israel has
nuclear weapons. Therefore, Saudi Arabia has made agreements with several countries including the US,
France or Pakistan, or companies from various countries in order to develop an atomic power program which
could enable Saudi Arabia to move on to the development of its own nuclear weapons programs.
● According to www.jewishvirtuallibrary.org/,
“In May 2008, the U.S. and Saudi Arabia agreed to establish a nuclear cooperation relationship and
Saudi Arabia joined the Proliferation Security Initiative”
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“multiple sources told BBC News that the Saudi government had invested in Pakistani
nuclear weapons projects and could obtain atomic bombs at will and might be able to deploy
such devices more quickly than even Iran”
King Abdullah told US diplomat Dennis Ross in 2009, “If [Iran] get nuclear weapons, we will get
nuclear weapons.”
Saudi Arabia and France signed a bilateral cooperation agreement for the
Saudi Arabia signed a secretive nuclear cooperation agreement with North Korea in March 2015.
Saudi officials called to match Iran's nuclear ambitions in May 2015, “We prefer a region without
nuclear weapons. But if Iran does it, nothing can prevent us from doing it too, not even the
international community.”
Turkey
Although Turkey itself does not knowingly possess any nuclear weapons, according to the Nuclear Threat
Initiative (NTI), “Turkey continues to host approximately 60 to 70 U.S. tactical nuclear weapons on its
territory at Incirlik Air Base”. They have taken part of the U.S.-led Proliferation Security Initiative and
Turkey’s devotedness to nonproliferation is backed by the fact that developing nuclear weapons would
jeopardize their entrance to the European Union.
● According to www.jewishvirtuallibrary.org/, on ”January 2013, Turkish President Abdullah Gul
called for a comprehensive solution to Iran's nuclear program and said Turkey does not want to see
any neighboring country possess nuclear weapons. ‘Turkey will not accept a neighboring country
possessing weapons not possessed by Turkey herself,’”
→ Source: http://www.jewishvirtuallibrary.org/
Iran
Iran first began their nuclear program in the 1950s assisted by Atoms for Peace. The program was stopped
when denominated “un-islamic”, however was put back up when Iran sought international partners to
continue with their reactors. Thus, Iran possesses the capability of enriching uranium which puts them on the
path of creating a nuclear weapon. This is very controversial because if Iran got nuclear weapons, countries in
the Middle East would begin nuclear programmes. The IAEA declared Iran did not comply with the
Comprehensive Safeguards Agreement. Also, the United Nations security council passed seven resolutions
demanding Iran brings their nuclear program to a stop. Eventually, in 2002, Iran and the P5+1 attempted to
negotiate until eventually, in 2015, the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), also known as the Iran
Nuclear Deal, was settled.
Israel
Israel has not formally announced they have nuclear weapons, however most experts would agree that they
have a nuclear arsenal. Furthermore, Israel has not signed any major treaty on the non proliferation of nuclear
weapons, such as the NPT. Although Israel has shown concern towards nonproliferation in the Middle East
and has supported the vision of the Middle East being a Nuclear-Free zone, they have been reluctant to
negotiate to the creation of such a zone.
*more information on countries involved in the issue: http://www.world-nuclear.org/informationlibrary/country-profiles/others/emerging-nuclear-energy-countries.aspx
Al Qaeda
The website http://www.encyclopedia.com/topic/Al-Qaeda.aspx states that “Al-Qaeda, an Arabic word
meaning “base,” is an international Islamic terrorist group led by Osama bin Laden, who founded Al-Qaeda
along with Abdullah Azzam (1941-1989) in Afghanistan in 1988 (9-11 Commission Report, p. 56). AlQaeda’s administrative and recruitment foundation sprang from the associations of Muslim warriors
(mujahideen ) that had formed in the early 1980s to fight the Soviet invaders in Afghanistan. These fighters
later became the backbone of Al-Qaeda’s forces.”
∗ This terrorist organization has shown interest in using a nuclear weapon for some 20 years and have
already attempted to buy materials in the black market.
International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA)
The official website of the IAEA states “the IAEA is widely known as the world's "Atoms for Peace"
organization within the United Nations family. Set up in 1957 as the world's centre for cooperation in the
nuclear field, the Agency works with its Member States and multiple partners worldwide to promote the safe,
secure and peaceful use of nuclear technologies”
Arms Control Association
The Arms Control Association, founded in 1971, is a national nonpartisan membership organization dedicated
to promoting public understanding of and support for effective arms control policies. Through its public
education and media programs and its magazine, Arms Control Today, we provide policy-makers, the press
and the interested public with authoritative information, analysis and commentary on arms control proposals,
negotiations and agreements, and related national security issues. In addition to the regular press briefings the
Arms Control Association holds on major arms control developments, the staff provides commentary and
analysis on a broad spectrum of issues for journalists and scholars both in the United States and abroad.
https://www.armscontrol.org/about
5. Timeline of Events
→ Nuclear Weapons
August 1942
16 July 1945
6 August 1945
9 August 1945
24 January 1946
29 August 1949
3 October 1952
1 November 1952
1 March 1954
9 July 1955
17 February 1958
Manhattan Project
established in US
US conducts first ever
nuclear test
US drops atomic bomb
on Hiroshima
A second bomb is
dropped on Nagasaki
UN calls for elimination
of atomic weapons
Soviet Union tests its
first nuclear bomb
UK tests nuclear weapon
in Australia
US tests the first
hydrogen bomb
US conducts massive
“Bravo” test
Russell–Einstein
manifesto issued
UK disarmament
campaign formed
1 December 1959
Nuclear tests banned in
Antarctica
13 February 1960
France tests its first
nuclear weapon
Largest ever bomb test
conducted
Cuban Missile Crisis
occurs
Partial Test Ban Treaty
opens for signature
China conducts its first
nuclear test
Latin America becomes
nuclear-free
Non-Proliferation Treaty
is signed
30 October 1961
16–29 October
1962
5 August 1963
16 October 1964
14 February 1967
1 July 1968
18 May 1974
India conducts first
nuclear test
22 September 1979 Nuclear explosion in
Indian Ocean
12 June 1982
A million people rally
for disarmament
10 July 1985
Rainbow Warrior ship
destroyed
6 August 1985
South Pacific becomes
nuclear-free
10 December 1985 Anti-nuclear doctors win
Nobel
30 September 1986 Israel’s nuclear
programme revealed
11–12 October
US and Soviet leaders
1986
discuss abolition
8 December 1987 Intermediate-range
missiles banned
10 July 1991
South Africa joins NonProliferation Treaty
15 December 1995 Southeast Asia becomes
nuclear-free
11 April 1996
Africa becomes a
nuclear-free zone
1 June 1996
Ukraine becomes a
nuclear-free state
8 July 1996
World Court says
nuclear weapons illegal
24 September 1996 Total nuclear test ban is
signed
27 November 1996 Belarus removes its last
nuclear missile
May 1998
India and Pakistan
conduct nuclear tests
9 October 2006
30 April 2007
4-5 March 2013
14 February 2014
9 December 2014
North Korea conducts
nuclear test
ICAN is launched in
Vienna
Norway hosts first
humanitarian conference
Mexico conference calls
for ban
Austria issues landmark
pledge
Source of the Timeline: http://www.icanw.org/
6. Relevant UN Treaties and Events
● GA A/RES/50/73 10 January 1996 http://www.un.org/documents/ga/res/50/ares50-73.htm
● IAEA General Conference https://www.iaea.org/about/policy/gc
● Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons:
https://www.iaea.org/publications/documents/treaties/npt
● Iran Nuclear Deal: https://assets.documentcloud.org/documents/2165399/full-text-of-the-iran-nucleardeal.pdf
● The Comprehensive Safeguards Agreement: https://www.iaea.org/safeguards/safeguards-legalframework/safeguards-agreements
● Comprehensive Nuclear Ban Treaty: https://www.ctbto.org/fileadmin/content/treaty/treaty_text.pdf
7. Previous attempts to solve the issue
1. The NPT is a clear attempt to stop nonproliferation, however has failed to reach its objective for about 50
years.
2. The Iran Nuclear deal was an attempt to stop an emerging arms race in the region
3. Strategic Arms Limitation Talks (SALT I )http://www.nti.org/media/pdfs/aptsaltI.pdf
4. Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR): http://www.nti.org/learn/treaties-and-regimes/missiletechnology-control-regime-mtcr/
8. Possible solutions
1. Full implementation of the NPT in all Middle Eastern countries and encouraging all countries that have not
yet signed it to do so, thus preventing a possible arms race
2. Establishing a nuclear free zone in the Middle East
3. Clear compliance with all IAEA inspections, safeguards and recommendations.
4. If IAEA inspections find non-compliance, a report be submitted to the UN Security Council for its analysis
and subsequent actions which might include imposing sanctions on those countries which do not comply.
5. Alternate nuclear power plant energy production to other manners such as aeolic power, solar power or
hydroelectric power, which can help limit potential nuclear weapons material from being made.
6. Nuclear power plants in Middle Eastern countries should agree to processing and storing fuel in other
countries so that these materials are not available for reprocessing to weapons grade materials.
9. Bibliography
http://timeforchange.org/what-is-nuclear-proliferation-nutshell
http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/10736700.2015.1070048
https://global.britannica.com/technology/weapon-of-mass-destruction
https://www.iaea.org/about
http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2015/03/31/world/middleeast/simple-guide-nuclear-talks-iranus.html?_r=0
http://time.com/3751676/iran-talks-nuclear-race-middle-east/
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/israel/12156598/Arab-states-are-seeking-nuclearweapons-to-counter-Iran-Israel-warns.html
http://www.state.gov/t/us/2015/247083.htm
http://belfercenter.ksg.harvard.edu/publication/20057/nuclear_terrorism_fact_sheet.html
https://www.armscontrol.org/factsheets/Nuclearweaponswhohaswhat
http://www.jewishvirtuallibrary.org/jsource/talking/60_nuclearproliferation.html
http://nationalinterest.org/feature/welcome-israeli-nuclear-weapons-101-13882?page=2
https://www.iaea.org/about
http://www.encyclopedia.com/topic/Al-Qaeda.aspx
http://www.cfr.org/global/global-conflict-tracker/p32137#!/
http://www.un.org/press/en/2012/gadis3459.doc.htm
http://www.nti.org/learn/countries