Walmart Neighborhood Market:
Assessing Its Prospects in a Changing Landscape
Laura Kennedy, Director
Leon Nicholas, SVP and Knowledge Officer
March 2016
Doing Business in Bentonville
© Kantar Retail 2016
Copyright © 2016 Kantar Retail. All Rights Reserved.
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Disclaimers
The analyses and conclusions presented in this seminar represent the opinions of Kantar Retail. The
views expressed do not necessarily reflect the views of the management of the retailer(s) under
discussion.
This seminar is not endorsed or otherwise supported by the management of any of the companies
covered during the course of the workshop or within the following slides.
© Kantar Retail 2016
Agenda: Assessing Neighborhood Market’s Prospects
Shopper
Assortment
Prototype
Competition: Spotlight on Publix
Conclusion and Supplier To-Dos
Source: Kantar Retail research and analysis
© Kantar Retail 2016
3
Neighborhood Market’s Expansion Will Continue
About 35% of WMT’s U.S. sales added through 2020 will be from small formats
“I am really excited about what we can do with Neighborhood Markets. But we have got to
fix some of these basic things and then we can get into them.” –Greg Foran, October 2015
Sales (USD millions)
Stores
Closed 102 12,000
square foot NMKTs, 24
“traditional”
Source: Company presentation and reports, Kantar Retail analysis
Note: Neighborhood Market store closures in January 2016 occurred before the end of the fiscal year and are accounted for in 2015. Sales impact is accounted for beginning in 2016.
© Kantar Retail 2016
4
Establishing “Development” Leadership
5
Neighborhood Market has equal footing with Supercenter in ops structure
Judith McKenna
“Ignore [Neighborhood
Chief Operating Officer,
Walmart US
Markets] at our peril” –
Judith McKenna, June 2015
As COO, now also oversees all
Walmart associates in addition
to leading small format strategy
and the Development Team
Previously EVP strategy and
international dev. for WMT
International (M&A, real estate,
format development)
Before, COO and CFO of
ASDA; as COO, oversaw
logistics, eCommerce, financial
services
Source: Company reports, Kantar Retail research and analysis
© Kantar Retail 2016
Julie Murphy
EVP, Neighborhood
Markets, Walmart US
Previously EVP and
President, Walmart West;
divisional SVP; and various
store operations positions
Replaced Mike Moore in
May 2015—Moore now
oversees Supercenters
6
Looking for More Autonomy for Merchants
Neighborhood Market structure has focused on ops
Steve Bratspies
Chief Merchant
Lea Jepson
Senior Director, Merchandising,
Small Formats
Julie Murphy
EVP, Neighborhood Markets,
Walmart US
Marc Lieberman
Brian Hooper
David Norman
VP, Small
VP, Real Estate
SVP, Ops West
Jesica Duarte
Formats
Small Formats
VP, Neighborhood
Market
Regional VPs
Larry Mahoney
Glenda Fleming
Development
SVP, Logistics
SVP, Ops East
Regional VPs
Source: Company reports, Kantar Retail research and analysis
© Kantar Retail 2016
15-20+ reports,
and growing
PLUS: Market managers for
each district exclusively
focused on NMKTs
7
Retooling Neighborhood Market
“There are opportunities for us to significantly update and improve things like
space allocations; adjacencies; ambience; navigation; and flow in both of our
formats. We’re working on this now” –Greg Foran, April 2015
Fresh
Pickup
Fill-in
Trips
Pharmacy
Source: Kantar Retail research and analysis
© Kantar Retail 2016
Fuel
8
Shopper
© Kantar Retail 2016
9
Neighborhood Market Needs to Recapture Trips
Continued decline in Supercenter penetration, despite stores added
Percent Shopped Walmart during Past Four Weeks, by Format
80%
70%
68%
62%
Walmart/Walmart Supercenter
60%
60%
50%
Amazon.com
40%
30%
28%
Neighborhood Market*
20%
10%
17%
Walmart.com
9%
10%
Jan-07
Mar-07
May-07
Jul-07
Sep-07
Nov-07
Jan-08
Mar-08
May-08
Jul-08
Sep-08
Nov-08
Jan-09
Mar-09
May-09
Jul-09
Sep-09
Nov-09
Jan-10
Mar-10
May-10
Jul-10
Sep-10
Nov-10
Jan-11
Mar-11
May-11
Jul-11
Sep-11
Nov-11
Jan-12
Mar-12
May-12
Jul-12
Sep-12
Nov-12
Jan-13
Mar-13
May-13
Jul-13
Sep-13
Nov-13
Jan-14
Mar-14
May-14
Jul-14
Sep-14
Nov-14
Jan-15
Mar-15
May-15
Jul-15
Sep-15
Nov-15
Jan-16
0%
3%
Analysis for Neighborhood Market is limited to states in which Neighborhood Market had a presence as of January 2016
Source: Kantar Retail ShopperScape® , January 2007- January 2016
© Kantar Retail 2016
NMKT’s Shoppers Are Younger than the Supercenter’s
Shopper Profile: Past 4-Week Shoppers
Walmart SC Walmart NMKT
Annual HH Income
Locale*
Kids in HH
Generation
Race/Ethnicity
<$25k
$25k-$49.9k
$50k-$74.9k
$75k-$99.9k
$100k+
Mean income
Rural
Small Town
Large Town
Suburban
Urban/City
Yes
No
Gen Y
Gen X
Boomers
Seniors
Mean age
White Non-Hispanic
Black Non-Hispanic
Hispanic
27%
27%
18%
11%
17%
$58,180
17%
21%
13%
36%
13%
28%
73%
20%
31%
38%
11%
49.3
68%
14%
13%
26%
27%
19%
12%
17%
$58,720
9%
13%
15%
43%
21%
29%
71%
25%
32%
34%
9%
46.8
59%
17%
17%
Analysis limited to states in which Neighborhood Market was present as of January 2016
Note: highlighting indicates significant difference between column percentages (95% confidence level)
Source: Kantar Retail ShopperScape®, January-December 2015
© Kantar Retail 2016
‒ Compared to Supercenter
shoppers, Neighborhood Market
shoppers…
 Live in denser market areas
 Are younger
 More likely to be Hispanic,
African American
10
11
NMKT and Supercenter Shoppers Overlap
Though over time NMKT shoppers become less likely to cross-shop the SC
Cross-Shopping Between Walmart Banners
(among past four week shoppers of retailers)
NMKT shopped SC
SC shopped NMKT
2011-2015 % Change: -12%
2011-2015 % Change: +136%
75%
73%
67%
4%
2011
5%
2012
Analysis limited to states in which Neighborhood Market was present as of January 2016
Source: Kantar Retail ShopperScape®, January 2011-December 2015
© Kantar Retail 2016
65%
7%
2013
64%
8%
2014
10%
2015
For Shoppers, NKMT Beats Supercenter on Efficiency
12
But lacks on some key convenience measures
How Shoppers Describe the Shopping Experience at Walmart, by Format
(among past four-week shoppers of each retailer)
Describes experience
at NMKT
Describes experience
at Supercenter
Knowing that I'm paying a low price
Feeling like I got a "good deal"
Ability to get in and out quickly
Fast checkout
Store is clean and looks nice
Specific items I want being in-stock
Availability of high-quality fresh foods (e.g., meat, produce)
Availability of my favorite national brand products
Can get everything I need across a variety of categories
Availability of high-quality private label brands
Store associates are available and helpful if I need them
Good variety of pre-prepared "to-go" foods available
Fun and pleasant shopping experience
Offers unique products I can't find elsewhere
59%
57%
53%
52%
49%
46%
41%
39%
37%
30%
28%
25%
25%
16%
68%
64%
36%
45%
35%
63%
51%
43%
31%
29%
23%
26%
24%
15%
Ability to use the retailer's app on my smartphone while in the store to
make the shopping trip easier
14%
12%
Offers "meal solutions" to help me figure out what to buy/cook
Wide variety of organic products available
13%
11%
13%
13%
Opportunities to engage with products in the store (e.g., through
sampling stations, interactive displays, etc.)
4%
12%
Source: Kantar Retail ShopperScape®, May 2015
© Kantar Retail 2016
Legend
Green=
NMKT is
better
Orange=
WMSC is
better
For Shoppers, NKMT Beats Supercenter on Efficiency
13
But lacks on some key convenience measures
How Shoppers Describe the Shopping Experience at Walmart, by Format
(among past four-week shoppers of each retailer)
Describes experience
at NMKT
Describes experience
at Supercenter
Knowing that I'm paying a low price
Feeling like I got a "good deal"
Ability to get in and out quickly
Fast checkout
Store is clean and looks nice
Specific items I want being in-stock
Availability of high-quality fresh foods (e.g., meat, produce)
Availability of my favorite national brand products
Can get everything I need across a variety of categories
Availability of high-quality private label brands
Store associates are available and helpful if I need them
Good variety of pre-prepared "to-go" foods available
Fun and pleasant shopping experience
Offers unique products I can't find elsewhere
59%
57%
53%
52%
49%
46%
41%
39%
37%
30%
28%
25%
25%
16%
68%
64%
36%
45%
35%
63%
51%
43%
31%
29%
23%
26%
24%
15%
Ability to use the retailer's app on my smartphone while in the store to
make the shopping trip easier
14%
12%
Offers "meal solutions" to help me figure out what to buy/cook
Wide variety of organic products available
13%
11%
13%
13%
Opportunities to engage with products in the store (e.g., through
sampling stations, interactive displays, etc.)
4%
12%
Source: Kantar Retail ShopperScape®, May 2015
© Kantar Retail 2016
Legend
Green=
NMKT is
better
Orange=
WMSC is
better
Overall, Big Gaps Between Expectations and NMKT’s
Delivery of Fresh, Service, Variety
14
Ideal Shopping Experience vs. Experience at Neighborhood Market
(among past four-week Neighborhood Market shoppers)
Extremely/somewhat
important when shopping
Describes experience
at NMKT
PPT Diff
(Actual – Ideal)
Knowing that I'm paying a low price
Availability of high-quality fresh foods
Feeling like I got a "good deal"
Fast checkout
Store is clean and looks nice
Can get everything I need across a variety of categories
Specific items I want being in-stock
Ability to get in and out quickly
Availability of my favorite national brand products
Store associates are available and helpful if I need them
Fun and pleasant shopping experience
Availability of high-quality private label brands
Offers unique products I can't find elsewhere
Good variety of pre-prepared "to-go" foods available
Wide variety of organic products available
Opportunities to engage with products in the store (e.g.,
through sampling stations, interactive displays, etc.)
86%
85%
83%
81%
81%
81%
80%
78%
70%
68%
64%
52%
42%
38%
34%
59%
41%
57%
52%
49%
37%
46%
53%
39%
28%
25%
30%
16%
25%
11%
-27.1
-43.9
-25.8
-29.5
-32.6
-44.0
-33.5
-25.5
-31.1
-40.0
-39.1
-22.3
-25.4
-12.9
-22.5
28%
4%
Offers "meal solutions" to help me figure out what to buy/cook
26%
13%
Ability to use the retailer's app on my smartphone while in the
store to make the shopping trip easier
20%
14%
Source: Kantar Retail ShopperScape®, May 2015
© Kantar Retail 2016
-23.6
-12.5
-6.6
15
Assortment
© Kantar Retail 2016
16
Recapturing the Fill-In Trip
Redirecting the “mass” model
Fresh
Pickup
Fill-in
Trips
Pharmacy
Source: Kantar Retail research and analysis
© Kantar Retail 2016
Fuel
Food Merchandise Ladder
Half as many SKUs at Neighborhood Market, but higher proportion of
smaller sizes
Mustard
Assortment:
% Private Label
Neighborhood Market
Supercenter
22%
23%
Source: Kantar Retail store visits and analysis, 2016
© Kantar Retail 2016
17
Fill-in
Trips
Non-Edible Grocery Ladder: Paper Towels
SKU culling, more thoughtful pack sizes at NMKT
Paper Towels
Assortment:
% Private Label
Neighborhood Market
Supercenter
28%
28%
Source: Kantar Retail store visits and analysis
© Kantar Retail 2016
18
Fill-in
Trips
HBA Ladder: Mouthwash
Higher share of private label at NMKT, but mostly identical pack size
distribution
Mouthwash
Assortment:
% Private Label
Neighborhood Market
Supercenter
20%
14%
Source: Kantar Retail store visits and analysis
© Kantar Retail 2016
19
Fill-in
Trips
Private Label Initiatives Crystallize at NMKT
Elevating brand, emphasizing quality; central to operating model
Best
Basic
Source: Kantar Retail store visits
© Kantar Retail 2016
20
Fill-in
Trips
21
Adult Beverages Are a Trip Driver
Fill-in
Trips
Clear fill-in, quick trip role; create excitement
Creating excitement,
solutions
Source: Kantar Retail store visits
© Kantar Retail 2016
Shelf guidance for
types of beer,
suggested food
pairings for wine
Co-merchandising Encourages Routine, Impulse Solutions
22
Fill-in
Trips
Moving fresh
through the store
Source: Kantar Retail store visits
© Kantar Retail 2016
General Merchandise Becoming a Better Complement
Using Pickup to extend the aisle
Source: Kantar Retail store visits
© Kantar Retail 2016
23
Fill-in
Trips
24
Prototype
© Kantar Retail 2016
25
Go-Ahead Prototype Floor Plan
Walnut St., Rogers, AR
Drinks To Go
station
Source: Kantar Retail store visits, company reports
© Kantar Retail 2016
Including selfcheckouts
26
Rogers Prototype Store Revolves Around Fresh
Low sightlines, layout give full view of perishables on entry
Fresh
“We’ve seen fresh penetration expand in this store
[prototype] relative to its peers.”
–Greg Foran, November 2015
Source: Kantar Retail store visits
© Kantar Retail 2016
27
Meat Moves Up Front, Produce Artfully Displayed
“We’re encouraged by our newest prototype,
which features better sightlines and displays.”
–Greg Foran, November 2015
Source: Kantar Retail store visits
© Kantar Retail 2016
Fresh
28
Deli and Bakery Elevate Fresh, Quick Trip Message
Fresh
“All Neighborhood Markets… will open up with a bakery and a deli because we
absolutely believe that’s important in the future” –Judith McKenna, April 2015
Source: Kantar Retail store visits
© Kantar Retail 2016
Stores Within the Store Add Meaning to Assortment
Tapping into special health needs, young families
Source: Kantar Retail store visits
© Kantar Retail 2016
29
Fill-in
Trips
Grocery Pickup Is Expanding to NMKT
Online grocery could be key cog in quick-trip message
30
Pickup
• Curbside grocery pickup
now available in 20
markets, across Walmart
formats; adding another
20 in 2016
• Features drive-up kiosks
for calling up an order
and parking spaces
where orders can be
loaded
Marketing in-store
reminds shoppers of
online grocery option
Source: Kantar Retail store visits
© Kantar Retail 2016
31
Competition: Spotlight on Publix
© Kantar Retail 2016
Recapturing the Fill-In Trip in the Portfolio
Pressure continues on “mass” model
NMKT
Source: Kantar Retail research and analysis
© Kantar Retail 2016
32
Neighborhood Market’s Supermarket Competitive Set
Varies by Region
33
Top Grocery Retailers Also Shopped by Neighborhood Market Shoppers, by Region
Northeast
Central
West
Walmart/WMSC
59%
Walmart/WMSC
83%
Walmart/WMSC
64%
Costco
46%
Sam’s Club
35%
Food Lion
30%
Safeway
33%
ALDI
32%
ALDI
27%
Trader Joe’s
32%
Hy-Vee
20%
Sam’s Club
21%
Albertsons
28%
Kroger
15%
Kroger
20%
WinCo Foods
23%
Whole Foods
13%
Trader Joe’s
17%
Southwest
Southeast
Walmart/WMSC
75%
Walmart/WMSC
74%
Kroger
31%
Publix
61%
Albertsons
30%
Winn-Dixie
39%
Sam’s Club
28%
Sam’s Club
25%
Sprouts
22%
ALDI
20%
H-E-B
21%
Costco
15%
Source: Kantar Retail ShopperScape®, January-December 2015
© Kantar Retail 2016
34
Where Can NMKT Learn from Competitors?
Keeping in mind NMKT’s points of focus
Fresh
“When we are up against
someone who is really
good at running
supermarkets, frankly
our fresh offering has
not been on par with
what it takes to win.”
–Greg Foran, October 2015
Pickup
Fill-in
Trips
Pharmacy
Source: Kantar Retail research and analysis
© Kantar Retail 2016
Fuel
35
Case Study: Neighborhood Market vs. Publix
March 2015, Tampa, FL
Charlotte
Among the Neighborhood
Markets in the six states
Publix has a presence…
Atlanta
40% are within
2 miles of a Publix
Jacksonville
Lakeland
(rest of Florida)
Miami
53% are within
5 miles
Source: Aggdata, Kantar Retail analysis
© Kantar Retail 2016
36
Neighborhood Market vs. Publix: A Price Comparison
Raspberries
Bread
Chicken breast
Hot dogs
Tomatoes
Apples
Bananas
Cheese
Butter
Bacon
Orange Juice
Grapes
100% Whole Wheat (Whole Grain)
Perfect Portions Fresh
Bun-sized premium beef franks
Cherry
Granny Smith
Provolone
Salted - 4 sticks
Black label original
Homestyle, Some Pulp
Green
Arnold
Perdue
Oscar Mayer
Campari
Land O' Lakes
Land O' Lakes
Hormel
Tropicana
-
$2.78
$2.98
$6.98
$3.98
$2.48
$1.67
$0.59
$3.98
$3.96
$4.78
$3.98
$2.98
$4.49
$4.29
$8.99
$4.99
$2.99
$1.99
$0.69
$4.39
$4.29
$4.99
$3.99
$1.99
Index
(Publix-NMKT)
162
144
129
125
121
119
117
110
108
104
100
67
Glass Cleaner
Regular
French Vanilla, Cardboard cartoon, tub - black
label
Corn Flakes
Chunk Light, packed in water, can
Angel Hair
Little Snugglers - size 2
Steel Wool pads - Lemon
Heavy Duty Aluminum Foil
Cans - fridge pack
Chicken Noodle
Sensitive, for Fussiness and Gas, with Iron
Adult Complete Nutrition
Plain, Squeeze bottle - inverted
Disinfecting Wipes, Fresh Scent
64 loads
plastic jar - strained Peas "All Natural", 2nd
foods
Windex
$2.83
$3.99
141
Breyers
Kellogg's
Starkist
Barilla
Huggies
S.O.S.
Reynold's
Coca-Cola Classic
Campbell's
Similac
Pedigree
Heinz
Clorox
Tide
$3.94
$2.98
$0.75
$1.38
$8.97
$1.88
$5.92
$4.48
$0.88
$24.98
$12.97
$2.22
$4.63
$11.97
$5.49
$3.99
$0.99
$1.69
$10.49
$2.19
$6.79
$4.99
$0.97
$26.99
$13.99
$2.39
$4.79
$11.99
139
134
132
122
117
116
115
111
110
108
108
108
103
100
Gerber
$1.08
$1.07
99
Hand Soap
Vitamins
Floss
Hair Coloring
Razors
Antiobiotic
Ointment
Mouthwash
Diaper Cream
Painkiller
Crisp Cucumber and Melon
Gummy Vites, Complete - natural flavor
Satin Complete - mint
Colorsilk - Beautiful
Women's - Hydro Silk, 3 Razors, 5 blades
Softsoap
Lil Critters
Oral B
Revlon
Schick
$0.98
$3.98
$2.27
$2.97
$9.97
$1.79
$5.49
$2.99
$3.79
$12.49
183
138
132
128
125
Plus Pain Relief antibiotic cream, tube
Cool Mint
Rapid Relief Diaper Rash Cream - Blue tube
Ibuprofen, 200 Mg
$4.44
$5.97
$5.27
$5.94
$5.39
$6.99
$5.89
$6.29
121
117
112
106
Shampoo
Eye Makeup
Remover
Shaving Gel
Dandruff Shampoo - Classic Clean
Neosporin
Listerine
Desitin
Advil
Head and
Shoulders
$7.26
$7.49
103
Oil-Free, blue bottle (liquid)
Extra Moisture Gel, with Vit. E
Neutrogena
Edge
$6.47
$2.97
$6.49
$2.55
100
86
Segment
‒ March 2015, Tampa, FL
‒ Basket of 12 fresh items, 16
grocery items, 12 HBA items
‒ Neighborhood Market was
less expensive in all three
sub-baskets
Ice Cream
Cereal
Canned Tuna
Pasta (dry)
Diapers
Soap Pads
Foil
Soda
Soup
Infant Formula
Dog Food
Ketchup
Wipes
Laundry Soap
 Biggest differential in fresh
 Only three items cheaper at
Publix overall
‒ No Rollbacks, 3 sale items at
Publix
Fresh basket
Grocery
HBA
March 2015 Results
Index
(PublixNMKT
Publix
NMKT)
$ 42.44 $ 50.08
118
$ 91.86 $ 102.80
112
$ 58.49 $ 67.64
116
Total $150.35
$170.44
113
Source: Kantar Retail store visits
Baby Food
Product
Brand
Total
© Kantar Retail 2016
NMKT
Publix
$150.35 $170.44
113
Within Categories, Publix’s Average Prices Are Higher Too
What is the price differential worth to shoppers?
Retailer Merch Ladders
% Private
Label
NMkt
Publix
NMkt
Publix
NMkt
Publix
26%
18%
9%
13%
11%
13%
Source: Kantar Retail store visits and analysis
© Kantar Retail 2016
37
But Publix Is Strong in the Perimeter and in Service
Fresh is throughout the store, cross-merchandising guides the shopper
Source: Kantar Retail store visits
© Kantar Retail 2016
38
Competition Will Necessarily Go Beyond Price
New thinking, new innovation driving differentiation in marketplace
‒ Perishables, fresh continue to elevate
 Investment on the rise as shoppers demand it
‒ Driving differentiation with departments
 Greater importance on categories and merchandising
placement
‒ Keying on digital, not just eCommerce
 Online grocery will become a more important factor
‒ The wild card: Lidl
 Where price and assortment will be center stage
Source: Kantar Retail research and analysis
© Kantar Retail 2016
39
40
Conclusion and Supplier To-Dos
© Kantar Retail 2016
41
Is Walmart Differentiating This Format?
A closer look at the “Neighborhood” message
Some attention to local connection,
distinguishing the store…
…Marketing largely remains parallel
with the Supercenter
Ad is the same as at the
Supercenter
Source: Kantar Retail store visits
© Kantar Retail 2016
“Available at your local
Supercenter and
Neighborhood Market”
Neighborhood Market’s Prospects: To-Dos for Suppliers
42
Resources:
•
1
•
•
Evaluate your team size and structure, including roles in category
management, supply chain, analytics, and marketing.
Capitalize on expertise already in your company around BIC
supermarkets and other small formats (e.g., drug).
Include these teams in joint business planning.
Differentiation:
2
•
•
•
Build merchandising skills outside the pallet, selling off the shelf.
Dedicate resources to assortment and endcap planning for this format.
Craft solutions at Neighborhood Market that are different from the
Supercenter, especially focused on to-go and fill-in trip missions.
Prototype-driven growth:
3
•
•
•
Target merchandising that orients around fresh and perishables.
Develop an online grocery and broader assortment Pickup strategy to
build baskets and send the convenience message.
Link solutions with services to highlight the convenience message.
Source: Kantar Retail research and analysis
© Kantar Retail 2016
Kantar Retail
Walmart & Sam's Club Workshop
Apr 5-6, 2016 Bentonville, AR
At this two-day workshop, our Walmart and Sam’s Club experts will dig into the retailers’ efforts to
significantly evolve their propositions for a rapidly changing and demanding shopper base, and will
deliver implications for suppliers’ business planning and growth opportunities.
You’ll walk away from this Workshop with:
‒
‒
‒
Forecasts for Walmart’s store expansion and sales
growth heading into the end of the decade
Insights into where Walmart is investing to drive
relevance and what the retailer will demand from
suppliers as investments continue to pressure profits
Understanding of the extent, purpose, and plausibility of
Sam’s current member and merchandise evolution
through 2020
Featuring Kantar Retail Experts:
Laura Kennedy, Director
David Marcotte, SVP
Leon Nicholas, SVP & Knowledge Officer
© Kantar Retail 2016
Sara Al-Tukhaim, Director
Tim Campbell, Jr. Analyst
For further information please refer to
KantarRetailiQ.com
Contact:
Laura Kennedy
Director
Leon Nicholas
SVP and Knowledge Officer
T:
T:
+1 (617) 912 2851
[email protected]
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