ABC NEWS/WASHINGTON POST POLL – THE PRESIDENTIAL RACE – 1/16/00
EMBARGOED FOR RELEASE AFTER 6:30 p.m. Monday, Jan. 17, 2000
A Pair of Jabs For G.W. Bush
From McCain and Gore Alike
George W. Bush takes a pair of jabs in the latest ABC News/Washington Post poll,
showing no progress against challenger John McCain in New Hampshire and losing some
of his customary large lead against Democrat Al Gore in a general election matchup.
Independent voters are one of Bush's problems, especially in New Hampshire, where they
vote in unusually high numbers. Independents there have moved away from Bush – he's
winning just one in five of them, down from one in three last month – giving McCain a
critical opening in the first-in-the-nation Republican primary.
The New Hampshire Republican race is very close among likely voters, with 40 percent
support for McCain, 36 percent for Bush; McCain's edge increases slightly among those
most likely to vote. The Democratic race in New Hampshire, meanwhile, could hardly be
closer: Bill Bradley has 48 percent support, Gore 47 percent.
Bradley, like McCain, relies on support from independents. The problem down the road
for both of these insurgent candidates is that historically more independents vote in New
Hampshire than in other states' primaries.
1/16/00
12/15/99
New Hampshire - Likely Voters
Republican
Democratic
McCain
Bush
Bradley
Gore
40%
36
48%
47
40
39
48
45
NATIONAL - Nationally, in a general election matchup, Bush now has 51 percent
support to Gore's 41 percent – a notch up for Gore, a few down for Bush, making the race
its closest in ABC/Post polls since last spring. The changes mainly are in groups in which
Bush had been doing atypically well, including Democrats, independents and liberals.
The recent spate of debates may have played some role here; Gore is doing better, and
Bush less well, among Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents who've tuned in
to some of the recent televised debates. Some of them may have watched Gore and liked
him; or watched Bush, and come away unimpressed.
Bush also has lost ground in some specific attributes. Just 49 percent of Americas now
think he'd "bring needed change to Washington," down from 61 percent in late October.
And 49 percent think he has sufficient knowledge of world affairs, down 10 points.
1/16/00
12/15/99
National - All Americans
Bush
Gore
Bush Bradley
51%
41
54%
39
55
39
56
36
In primary preference nationally, Gore has improved his already large lead over Bradley,
now 71-27 percent; and Bush still has a huge lead over McCain, now 68-17 percent.
(McCain's support has crept up, from 10 percent in late October.)
NH ISSUES/REP – McCain owes his strong run in New Hampshire to his antiestablishment, tell-it-like-it-is image, and also to the extensive legwork he's done in the
state: Eighty-nine percent of likely Republican voters there say he's "worked especially
hard" in New Hampshire, bettering Bush by 24 points.
Bush leads McCain in New Hampshire on only one personal quality, but it's a powerful
one: Electability. Two-thirds of likely Republican voters there say Bush has the best
chance to win in November; only about a quarter say that of McCain.
Bush also has a lead on the single most potent issue to New Hampshire Republicans,
taxes. Twenty-six percent cite it as the most important issue in their vote; asked whom
they trust most to handle their taxes, 44 percent pick Bush, 35 percent McCain. That's
even though New Hampshire Republicans divide evenly on whether Bush could pull off
his promise to cut taxes while keeping the budget balanced.
McCain leads Bush by a 2-1 margin among New Hampshire Republicans, 50-25 percent,
in trust to handle McCain's signature issue, campaign finance reform. But other than
burnishing his anti-establishment credentials that may not bring McCain many votes,
since it finishes last in importance on the issues list.
Top issue in your vote:
NH Rep. voters
Taxes
26%
Social
Security/
Medicare Education
17
12
Health Int'l
Economy care affairs
11
11
5
Campaign
finance
reform
4
NH ISSUES/DEM – McCain's anti-establishment credentials in New Hampshire are
mirrored by Bradley on the Democratic side. He leads Gore on being an atypical
politician, on being likely to bring "needed change" to Washington and, by a 29-point
margin, on saying "what he really thinks, even if it's not politically popular."
Also like McCain, Bradley owes much of his competitive position in New Hampshire to
independents. Bradley leads Gore by 55-39 percent among independents who plan to vote
in the Democratic primary; among Democrats, though, Gore leads by 53-43 percent.
Gore also leads Bradley by substantial margins among likely Democratic voters in New
Hampshire on qualities including experience, knowledge of world affairs, and, like Bush,
electability. And there's a sizable gender gap in the Democratic race in New Hampshire.
Bradley leads by 55-40 percent among men, Gore by 53-42 percent among women.
The issues list is quite different among New Hampshire Democrats than among
Republicans there. Health care, Social Security and education share top billing; taxes are
far back in the pack. As befits the very tight race, likely voters divide evenly on whom
they trust more to handle health care, Gore or Bradley.
Top issue in your vote:
NH Dem. voters
Health
care
23%
Social
Security/
Medicare
23
Education
22
Economy
10
Campaign
finance
Taxes reform
7
4
Int'l
affairs
3
DEBATES – In addition to their possible impact on the national Bush-Gore race, the
frequent debates of the past week and a half may have given a very slight bump to Gore
in his primary race nationally, and been a slight drag on Bush in his race.
On the Republican side, Bush has 12 points less support nationally among leaned
Republicans who watched some of the debates, though his numbers are very high in both
groups – 62 percent support from debate watchers, 74 percent from non-viewers. Though
still in single digits, the accomplished orator Alan Keyes has nine percent support from
debate watchers, compared to two percent from non-viewers.
For the Democrats, Gore leads Bradley by 75-22 percent among debate viewers,
compared to 68-30 percent among those who did not watch. Again, these differences are
slight, and in both cases amount to very large Gore leads.
Still, the debates don't seem to have had any impact in New Hampshire: The Democratic
and Republican races there are essentially the same among those who watched them and
those who didn't.
TUNED IN - New Hampshirites get extra credit for tuning in: Seventy-one percent of
likely voters there say they've watched some of the debates, compared to 46 percent of all
Americans. As noted last month, New Hampshire voters also are much more likely to be
following the contest closely, and to feel they know a great deal about the candidates.
Bradley and McCain both may hope this augurs well for them – that they'll do better
elsewhere once more voters in the rest of the country tune in. That's not a sure bet,
though. Gore actually does a little better against Bradley among New Hampshire voters
who've been paying very close attention and feel they know the candidates well; and the
Bush-McCain race there is about the same regardless of attention levels.
INDIES – Perhaps the most significant change in New Hampshire is the move by
independent voters away from Bush. Last month he was winning a third of independents
who plan to vote in his party's primary; now he's supported by 21 percent of them.
That recalls the New Hampshire Republican primary of 1996, when insurgent Pat
Buchanan upset party choice Bob Dole by 2,100 votes. Dole managed to win only 18
percent of the independents in that primary – nearly the same as Bush's level today.
Republicans
Independents
1/16 Poll
McCain Bush
32%
45
49
21
1996 Exit Poll
Buchanan Dole
30%
29
27
18
It's a similar story among ideological groups: Bush leads McCain, 39-33 percent, among
conservatives in New Hampshire. But among the unusually large number of moderates
there, McCain leads, 48-32 percent.
LOOKING BEYOND – However, these sources of strength for McCain may be hard to
reproduce once the race moves on. Thirty-four percent of likely voters in the New
Hampshire Republican primary identify themselves as independents, about the same as it
was in 1996. But nationally, in all other 1996 GOP primaries, just 23 percent were
independents.
Similarly, moderates account for 41 percent of likely Republican voters in New
Hampshire this year. But nationally they're also much less numerous in other Republican
primaries, averaging 29 percent in 1996.
DISQUIET – Despite their large leads, this poll finds a sense of disquiet about both
national frontrunners. Among all Americans, 59 percent say there are some things about
Bush that worry them; and more, 65 percent, say that about Gore. Fewer say that about
McCain and Bradley, but it may be because they're less well known nationally.
There's a similar unease with Bush and Gore in New Hampshire, where majorities of
likely voters in each primary say something worries them about the establishment
candidates. There's less unease in New Hampshire with either McCain or Bradley.
This concern, however, does not raise the level of dissatisfaction with the choices in the
upcoming primaries. Nationally 80 percent of Republicans and independents who lean
Republican say they're satisfied with their choices; so do 69 percent of leaned Democrats.
(Nothing's perfect, of course: Many more are "somewhat" rather than "very" satisfied.)
Satisfaction also is high in New Hampshire, where voters are paying closer attention and
feel they know more about the candidates. There eight in 10 likely Democratic and
Republican voters alike say they're satisfied with the choice of candidates.
ERRATA – TNS Intersearch, the field house for this survey, reports that a programming
error created faulty data in the "candidate qualities" section of the national ABC/Post poll
on Dec. 15. The errors are significant in some cases, but these results were not central to
that poll analysis and do not effect its main conclusions. Corrected data appear below, in
the trend section under Q13.
METHODOLOGY – These ABC News/Washington Post polls were conducted by
telephone Jan. 13-16, one among a random sample of 1,007 adults across the nation and
the other among a random sample of 2,223 adults in New Hampshire, including 534
likely Democratic voters and 733 Republican voters. The national results have an error
margin of three percentage points; in New Hampshire it's three points for all likely
voters, 3.5 points for likely Republican voters and 4.5 points for likely Democratic
voters.
Fieldwork by TNS Intersearch of Horsham, Pa.
Analysis by Gary Langer.
ABC News polls can be found at ABCNEWS.com on the Internet, at:
http://abcnews.go.com/sections/politics/PollVault/PollVault.html
*= less than 0.5 percent
1. How closely are you following the 2000 presidential race: very closely,
somewhat closely, not too closely, or not closely at all?
1/16/00
1/16/00
12/15/99
12/15/99
10/31/99
Nat
NH*
Nat
NH*
Nat
Very
closely
11
34
12
33
16
Somewhat
closely
39
51
33
53
45
Not too
closely
26
12
31
12
25
Not closely
at all
24
2
24
2
13
No
opin.
*
*
*
*
*
*NH: "the presidential primary campaign in New Hampshire"
2. I'd like you to rate the chances that you will vote in the 2000 presidential
election: Are you absolutely certain to vote, will you probably vote, are the
chances 50-50, or less than that?
1/16/00
1/16/00
12/15/99
12/15/99
10/31/99
Nat
NH*
Nat
NH*
Nat
Certain
to vote
65
80
64
77
72
Probably
vote
14
15
13
17
11
Chances
50/50
10
5
8
5
10
Less than
50/50
6
1
9
1
5
Don’t think
will vote
(vol.)
4
*
6
*
3
No
opin.
*
0
1
0
*
*NH: "in the primary on February first"
3. (National poll only) If the election for president in the year 2000 were
being held today, and the candidates were (Al Gore, the Democrat), and (George
W. Bush, the Republican), for whom would you vote?
Net Leaned Vote:
1/16/00
12/15/99
10/31/99
9/2/99
8/22/99
6/6/99
3/14/99
Gore
41
39
39
37
37
40
41
Bush
51
55
55
56
49
53
54
Neither
(vol.)
2
2
2
3
5
3
1
Other
(vol.)
*
*
*
*
2
1
*
Gore
34
41
40
35
Bush
45
43
45
40
Neither
(vol.)
7
6
5
12
Wouldn't
vote (vol.)
1
2
2
4
Unleaned:
10/25/98
8/21/98
1/19/98
9/23/97
Wouldn't
vote (vol.)
3
3
2
3
3
1
2
No
opin.
2
1
2
2
3
3
2
No
opin.
13
7
7
9
4. (National poll only) Do you support (Gore/Bush) strongly, or not strongly?
1/16/00
12/15/99
10/31/99*
9/2/99
3/14/99
-----------Gore---------Strngly
Not
No opin.
51
45
3
50
46
4
35
65
*
38
61
1
38
62
*
-----------Bush----------Strngly
Not
No opin.
53
44
3
58
39
3
37
62
1
43
56
1
40
58
2
*10/99 and previous: "strongly or only somewhat"
5. (National poll only) How about if the candidates were (Bill Bradley, the
Democrat), and (George W. Bush, the Republican)?
Net Leaned Vote:
1/16/00
12/15/99
10/31/99
9/2/99
3/14/99
Bradley
39
36
38
36
34
Bush
54
56
54
57
58
None
(vol.)
2
2
2
2
2
Other
(vol.)
*
*
*
*
1
Wouldn't
vote (vol.)
3
3
3
2
2
No
opin.
3
2
2
3
4
6. (National poll only) How about if the candidates were (Al Gore, the
Democrat), and (John McCain, the Republican)?
Net Leaned Vote:
1/16/00
12/15/99
10/31/99
Gore
47
47
51
McCain
44
44
38
None
(vol.)
2
2
4
Other
(vol.)
*
*
*
Wouldn't
vote (vol.)
4
4
4
No
opin.
3
3
3
7. (National poll only) How about if the candidates were (Bill Bradley, the
Democrat), and (John McCain, the Republican)?
Net Leaned Vote:
1/16/00
12/15/99
Bradley
43
45
McCain
45
43
None
(vol.)
2
4
Other
(vol.)
1
1
Wouldn't
vote (vol.)
5
4
No
opin.
5
3
8. Overall, how much do you feel you know about the candidates running for
president – a great deal, a good amount, just some or hardly anything?
1/16/00
1/16/00
12/15/99
12/15/99
Nat
NH
Nat
NH
--Great deal/Good amount-NET Great deal Good amt.
41
8
33
72
18
55
35
8
27
68
16
52
-Just some/hardly
NET Some Hardly
59
42
28
25
64
45
32
29
anythinganything
17
3
19
2
No
opin.
*
*
*
*
9. Have you watched any of the presidential primary debates on television, or
not?
1/16/00 Nat
1/16/00 NH
Yes
46
71
No
54
29
No opin.
*
0
11. (National poll only) Do you have a favorable or unfavorable impression of
Bill Clinton as a person?
1/16/00 Nat
12/15/99 Nat
12/15/99 NH
National trend:
9/2/99
3/14/99
3/4/99
12/15/98
11/1/98
11/1/98 LV
Favorable
37
36
21
Unfavorable
59
62
77
No opinion
4
2
2
38
30
40
41
42
37
59
67
54
56
54
60
3
4
6
3
4
3
12. What's the single most important issue to you in deciding whom to support
for president – education, the economy, taxes, Social Security and Medicare,
campaign finance reform, international affairs, health care, or what? [I'll
repeat the list...]
National Poll:
Education
The economy
Taxes
Social Security and Medicare
Campaign finance reform
International affairs
Health care
Other
No opinion
New Hampshire Poll:
Education
The economy
Taxes
Social Security and Medicare
Campaign finance reform
International affairs
Health care
Other
No opinion
1/16/00
21
19
9
21
2
6
13
7
1
12/15/99
19
19
12
20
1
6
15
7
1
1/16/00
17
10
17
19
4
4
16
10
1
12/15/99
17
12
11
18
7
9
19
8
1
13. (National poll only) Please tell me whether the following statement applies
to (Gore/Bush/McCain/Bradley), or not?
National Poll – 1/16/00:
A. He’s not a typical politician
B. He understands the problems
of people like you
C. He is a strong leader
D. He has the right kind of
experience to be president
E. He would bring needed change
to Washington
F. He has the knowledge of world
affairs it takes to serve
effectively as president
G. He’s worked especially hard
to win support in your state
H. He has the best chance of
winning in November
I. He’s an inspiring candidate
J. Some things about him worry me
K. He’s a true conservative
L. He’s a loyal Democrat
M. He says what he really thinks,
even if it’s not politically
popular
A. He’s not a typical politician
B. He understands the problems
of people like you
C. He is a strong leader
D. He has the right kind of
experience to be president
E. He would bring needed change
to Washington
F. He has the knowledge of world
affairs it takes to serve
effectively as president
G. He’s worked especially hard
to win support in your state
H. He has the best chance of
winning in November
I. He’s an inspiring candidate
J. Some things about him worry me
K. He’s a true conservative
L. He’s a loyal Democrat
M. He says what he really thinks,
even if it’s not politically
popular
--------Bush-----Yes
No
No opin.
39
56
5
-------Gore------Yes
No
No opin.
36
57
7
46
65
49
28
6
7
46
41
47
53
7
6
61
33
6
66
30
4
49
43
8
33
60
7
49
40
10
65
28
8
37
50
13
40
50
10
59
51
59
52
NA
34
45
36
36
NA
7
4
5
13
NA
33
38
65
NA
88
61
59
31
NA
6
5
3
4
NA
6
53
38
9
42
51
7
------McCain-----Yes
No
No op.
34
51
15
------Bradley----Yes
No
No op.
38
48
14
41
48
45
35
13
17
44
44
43
41
13
15
40
46
14
40
45
14
43
43
14
38
49
13
46
38
16
38
46
15
22
62
16
24
59
16
11
44
50
45
NA
79
44
37
34
NA
10
11
13
21
NA
11
40
51
NA
69
79
49
38
NA
17
10
11
11
NA
14
52
33
15
50
35
15
National trend (where available):
A. He’s not a typical politician
1/16/00
12/15/99
-------Bush------Yes
No
No opin.
39
56
5
42
52
6
-------Gore-----Yes
No
No opin.
36
57
7
44
51
5
1/16/00
12/15/99
------McCain-----Yes
No
No opin.
34
51
15
40
38
21
------Bradley----Yes
No
No opin.
38
48
14
35
45
20
B. He understands the problems of people like you
1/16/00
12/15/99
10/31/99
9/2/99
6/13/99
3/14/99
-------Bush------Yes
No
No opin.
46
49
6
47
46
7
54
39
7
50
39
11
NA
NA
NA
52
27
21
-------Gore-----Yes
No
No opin.
46
47
7
46
49
6
57
38
4
47
45
8
44
44
12
48
41
11
1/16/00
12/15/99
------McCain-----Yes
No
No opin.
41
45
13
38
43
19
------Bradley----Yes
No
No opin.
44
43
13
44
37
20
C. He is a strong leader
1/16/00
12/15/99
10/31/99
9/2/99
6/13/99
3/14/99
-------Bush------Yes
No
No opin.
65
28
7
67
26
7
77
18
5
70
18
12
NA
NA
NA
68
13
20
-------Gore-----Yes No
No opin.
41
53
6
43
51
7
47
47
6
38
52
10
39
51
9
41
47
12
1/16/00
12/15/99
------McCain-----Yes
No
No opin.
48
35
17
49
29
21
------Bradley----Yes
No
No opin.
44
41
15
49
30
21
D. He has the right kind of experience to be president
1/16/00
12/15/99
10/31/99
9/2/99
-------Bush------Yes
No No opin.
61
33
6
62
32
6
66
28
6
61
30
9
-------Gore-----Yes
No
No opin.
66
30
4
69
27
5
70
27
3
69
27
4
1/16/00
12/15/99
------McCain-----Yes
No
No opin.
40
46
14
40
38
22
------Bradley----Yes
No
No opin.
40
45
14
39
41
20
E. He would bring needed change to Washington
1/16/00
12/15/99
10/31/99
9/2/99
-------Bush------Yes
No
No opin.
49
43
8
52
40
8
61
32
7
56
32
12
-------Gore-----Yes
No
No opin.
33
60
7
33
60
7
36
57
7
34
56
11
1/16/00
12/15/99
------McCain-----Yes
No
No opin.
43
43
14
41
38
21
------Bradley----Yes
No
No opin.
38
49
13
43
38
19
F. He has the knowledge of world affairs it takes to serve effectively as
president.
-------Bush-------
-------Gore------
1/16/00
12/15/99
11/14/99
Yes
49
54
59
No
40
38
36
No opin.
10
8
6
1/16/00
12/15/99
------McCain-----Yes
No
No opin.
46
38
16
44
36
20
Yes
65
68
NA
No
28
27
NA
No opin.
8
6
NA
------Bradley----Yes
No
No opin.
38
46
15
45
34
21
M. He says what he really thinks, even if it’s not politically popular
1/16/00
12/15/99
-------Bush------Yes
No
No opin.
53
38
9
57
36
7
-------Gore-----Yes
No
No opin.
42
51
7
43
51
7
1/16/00
12/15/99
------McCain-----Yes
No
No opin.
52
33
15
52
29
19
------Bradley----Yes
No
No opin.
50
35
15
46
33
21
(New Hampshire Poll only) Please tell me whether the following statement applies
to (Bush/McCain – for Republican likely voters; Gore/Bradley – for Democratic
likely voters) or not?
A. He’s not a typical politician
B. He understands the problems
of people like you
C. He is a strong leader
D. He has the right kind of
experience to be president
E. He would bring needed change
to Washington
F. He has the knowledge of world
affairs it takes to serve
effectively as president
G. He’s worked especially hard
to win support in your state
H. He has the best chance of
winning in November
I. He’s an inspiring candidate
J. Some things about him worry me
K. He’s a true conservative
L. He’s a loyal Democrat
M. He says what he really thinks,
even if it’s not politically
popular
A. He’s not a typical politician
B. He understands the problems
of people like you
C. He is a strong leader
D. He has the right kind of
experience to be president
E. He would bring needed change
to Washington
Among GOP Likely Voters
-------Bush-----------McCain------Yes
No
No opin.
Yes
No
No op.
38
60
2
52
45
3
53
70
44
25
3
5
69
76
25
19
6
5
69
29
2
69
25
6
53
43
4
66
29
5
57
38
5
76
19
5
65
33
2
89
9
2
68
56
61
58
NA
27
43
37
36
NA
4
1
2
6
NA
27
74
50
53
NA
66
25
46
36
NA
7
2
3
10
NA
46
49
5
79
17
4
Among Dem. Voters
--------Gore----Yes
No
No opin.
39
59
2
Among Dem. Voters
-----Bradley----Yes
No
No op.
55
42
4
68
60
29
37
3
3
74
62
21
31
5
7
83
15
2
57
37
5
41
56
3
66
30
4
F. He has the knowledge of world
affairs it takes to serve
effectively as president
G. He’s worked especially hard
to win support in your state
H. He has the best chance of
winning in November
I. He’s an inspiring candidate
J. Some things about him worry me
K. He’s a true conservative
L. He’s a loyal Democrat
M. He says what he really thinks,
even if it’s not politically
popular
82
14
4
53
39
8
85
14
1
87
10
2
56
49
56
NA
97
40
51
43
NA
3
4
1
1
NA
1
30
61
47
NA
83
64
37
51
NA
11
6
2
3
NA
6
49
47
4
78
17
5
New Hampshire Trend:
A. He’s not a typical politician
1/16/00 NH
12/15/99 NH
-------Bush------Yes
No
No opin.
38
60
2
40
58
3
-------Gore-----Yes
No
No opin.
39
59
2
34
64
2
1/16/00 NH
12/15/99 NH
------McCain-----Yes
No
No opin.
52
45
3
56
41
4
------Bradley----Yes
No
No opin.
55
42
4
54
42
4
B. He understands the problems of people like you
1/16/00 NH
12/15/99 NH
-------Bush------Yes
No
No opin.
53
44
3
59
35
6
1/16/00 NH
12/15/99 NH
------McCain-----Yes
No
No opin.
69
25
6
74
19
7
-------Gore-----Yes
No
No opin.
68
29
3
65
32
3
------Bradley----Yes
No
No opin.
74
21
5
79
16
6
C. He is a strong leader
1/16/00 NH
12/15/99 NH
-------Bush------Yes
No
No opin.
70
25
5
72
21
7
-------Gore-----Yes
No
No opin.
60
37
3
63
33
5
1/16/00 NH
12/15/99 NH
------McCain-----Yes
No
No opin.
76
19
5
78
15
7
------Bradley----Yes
No
No opin.
62
31
7
71
18
11
D. He has the right kind of experience to be president
1/16/00 NH
12/15/99 NH
-------Bush------Yes
No No opin.
69
29
2
71
23
5
-------Gore-----Yes
No
No opin.
83
15
2
85
14
1
1/16/00 NH
12/15/99 NH
------McCain-----Yes
No
No opin.
69
25
6
72
20
8
------Bradley----Yes
No
No opin.
57
37
5
66
24
9
E. He would bring needed change to Washington
1/16/00 NH
12/15/99 NH
-------Bush------Yes
No
No opin.
53
43
4
57
35
7
1/16/00 NH
12/15/99 NH
------McCain-----Yes
No
No opin.
66
29
5
77
18
5
-------Gore-----Yes
No
No opin.
41
56
3
40
54
6
------Bradley----Yes
No
No opin.
66
30
4
68
24
7
F. He has the knowledge of world affairs it takes to serve effectively as
president
1/16/00 NH
12/15/99 NH
-------Bush------Yes
No
No opin.
57
38
5
53
36
10
-------Gore-----Yes No
No opin.
82
14
4
89
9
2
1/16/00 NH
12/15/99 NH
------McCain-----Yes
No
No opin.
76
19
5
79
11
9
------Bradley----Yes
No
No opin.
53
39
8
63
25
12
M. He says what he really thinks, even if it’s not politically popular
1/16/00 NH
12/15/99 NH
-------Bush------Yes
No
No opin.
46
49
5
52
42
6
-------Gore-----Yes No
No opin.
49
47
4
45
49
6
1/16/00 NH
12/15/99 NH
------McCain-----Yes
No
No opin.
79
17
4
85
11
4
------Bradley----Yes
No
No opin.
78
17
5
76
17
7
14. For each issue I name, please tell me which of these candidates you trust
most to handle it - (George W. Bush), (John McCain), (Bill Bradley), or (Al
Gore).
Summary Table (National):
1/16/00
A.
B.
C.
D.
Campaign finance reform
Your taxes
Health Care
Leading the nation into
the Internet age
Summary Table (NH):
1/16/00
A.
B.
C.
D.
Campaign finance reform
Your taxes
Health Care
Leading the nation into
the Internet age
Trend (where available):
A. Campaign finance reform
Bush
29
39
32
McCain
24
13
9
35
7
Bush
16
29
19
McCain
43
27
19
22
15
Bradley
12
9
13
Gore
24
28
36
None (vol.)
5
6
4
No op.
6
5
6
35
5
9
Bradley
21
17
26
Gore
13
15
25
None (vol.)
5
9
6
No op.
3
4
5
13
30
10
11
9
1/16/00
1/16/00
12/15/99
12/15/99
Bush
29
16
34
18
Nat
NH
Nat
NH
McCain
24
43
19
43
Bradley
12
21
14
20
Gore
24
13
24
11
None (vol.)
5
5
5
5
No op.
6
3
4
4
15. Do you think Bush would be able to keep the federal budget balanced and
cut income taxes at the same time, or not?
1/16/00
1/16/00
12/15/99
12/15/99
Yes
38
33
38
36
Nat
NH
Nat
NH
No
56
63
55
59
No opin.
6
3
7
6
18. Which of these do you think is more important in a president: having big,
new ideas, or taking small steady steps?
1/16/00 Nat
1/16/00 NH
Having big,
new ideas
21
19
Taking small,
steady steps
73
77
Both
(vol.)
4
3
No
Opin.
2
1
19. Would you favor or oppose a plan in which the candidates for president
would participate in twice-weekly debates and agree not to run political
advertisements on television?
1/16/00 Nat
1/16/00 NH
Favor
75
72
Oppose
22
25
No opin.
3
3
20. (Asked of leaned Republicans nationally and Republican primary voters in
New Hampshire) Suppose your state holds a Republican primary or caucus for
president in 2000 and the candidates are: (READ LIST). For whom would you vote
- I'll read the list again:
None/
Other Wouldn’t No
Bush Forbes McCain Bauer Keyes Hatch (vol.) (vol.)
op.
1/16/00 Nat
68
3
17
1
5
2
0
1
2
1/16/00 NH
36
12
40
1
7
1
*
2
3
12/15/99 Nat
72
7
13
1
3
2
0
1
*
12/15/99 NH
39
10
40
1
5
*
*
*
3
National trend:
10/31/99
75
9/2/99**
60
8/8/99***
54
3/4/99****
52
4
6
4
4
10
5
4
2
3
2
1
1
5
3
2
2
2
1
1
NA
0
*
*
*
1
2
4
*
**Dole=15, Quayle=3, Buchanan=3
***Dole=14, Quayle=3, Buchanan=3, Alexander < 0.5%
****Dole=25, Quayle=6, Buchanan=3, Kasich=2, Alexander=1, Smith < 0.5%
21. Do you support (Republican candidate) strongly, or not strongly?
George W. Bush
1/16/00
1/16/00
12/15/99
12/15/99
Nat
NH
Nat
NH
Strongly
74
74
72
68
Not strongly
24
25
27
30
No opinion
2
1
1
2
1
2
7
2
Steve Forbes
1/16/00
1/16/00
12/15/99
12/15/99
Nat
NH
Nat
NH
John McCain
1/16/00
1/16/00
12/15/99
12/15/99
Nat
NH
Nat
NH
Gary Bauer
1/16/00
1/16/00
12/15/99
12/15/99
Nat
NH
Nat
NH
Alan Keyes
1/16/00
1/16/00
12/15/99
12/15/99
Nat
NH
Nat
NH
Orrin Hatch
1/16/00
1/16/00
12/15/99
12/15/99
Nat
NH
Nat
NH
Strongly
80
79
66
77
Not strongly
20
21
29
20
No opinion
0
0
5
3
Strongly
64
75
57
74
Not strongly
36
25
43
22
No opinion
1
*
0
3
Strongly
87
74
72
100
Not strongly
13
26
28
0
No opinion
0
0
0
0
Strongly
65
83
46
84
Not strongly
28
17
54
16
No opinion
6
0
0
0
Strongly
71
60
85
0
Not strongly
29
40
15
0
No opinion
0
0
0
100
22. (Asked of leaned Democrats nationally and Democratic primary voters in New
Hampshire) Suppose your state holds a Democratic primary or caucus for
president in 2000 and the candidates are Al Gore and Bill Bradley. For whom
would you vote?
Net Leaned Vote:
1/16/00
1/16/00
12/15/99
12/15/99
Nat
NH
Nat
NH
National trend:
10/31/99
9/2/99
8/15/99*
6/13/99
6/6/99**
3/14/99***
Gore
71
47
64
45
Bradley
27
48
31
48
Other
(vol.)
0
*
0
*
67
69
61
65
56
58
29
24
24
26
19
21
*
*
1
*
0
*
Neither/
Wouldn't (vol.)
1
1
2
3
1
3
2
4
2
2
No
opin.
1
2
3
4
3
4
3
5
4
2
*Beatty=9
**Jackson=19
***Jackson=17
23. Do you support (Democratic candidate) strongly, or not strongly?
1/16/00
----------Gore-----------Strongly
Not
No opin.
Nat
65
34
1
----------Bradley---------Strongly
Not
No opin.
48
50
1
1/16/00 NH
12/15/99 Nat
12/15/99 NH
67
62
68
32
36
31
1
3
1
64
37
64
35
60
34
1
3
2
24. Overall, how satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the choice of
candidates in the (Democratic/Republican) primary this year – are you very
satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied or very dissatisfied?
Democratic candidates*:
1/16/00 Nat
1/16/00 NH
-----Satisfied-------NET
Very
Somewhat
69
14
56
80
26
54
----Dissatisfied----NET
Somewhat
Very
28
21
7
19
15
5
No
opin.
2
*
----Dissatisfied----NET
Somewhat
Very
19
14
5
16
13
3
No
opin.
1
1
Republican candidates*:
1/16/00 Nat
1/16/00 NH
-----Satisfied-------NET
Very
Somewhat
80
27
53
83
32
51
*National Poll: Democratic candidates asked of Leaned Democrats, Republican
candidates asked of Leaned Republicans
*New Hampshire Poll: Democratic candidates asked of Democratic primary voters,
Republican candidates asked of Republican primary voters
***END***