www.juicemarket.info
IN THIS ISSUE :
ORANGE JUICE
The current USDA forecast for
Florida’s 2013/14 orange crop at
114 million boxes is down 12%
from last season's final figure.
The 2013/14 Brazilian crop is over
and juice yields reportedly finished
15% below the four-year average.
APPLE JUICE
Poland is still experiencing a lack
of high acid supplies. Offers for
apple concentrate from China to
Europe have eased slightly.
LEMON JUICE
The 2014 lemon crop in Argentina
is forecast to be significantly lower
than last year and the harvest has
been delayed until the end of April.
GRAPE JUICE
The 2014 Argentinean grape crop
is forecast to come in 25-30%
lower than last year.
GRAPEFRUIT JUICE
The 2013/14 US grapefruit crop is
forecast at 1.06 million tons, down
11% from last season's final
figure, says the USDA.
PINEAPPLE JUICE
The Thai winter crop was
disappointing. There are reports
that the supply from all other
producing regions is short.
MANGO JUICE
Fruit sizing of the 2014 Alphonso
crop is below normal in the
Bangalore region. However, sizing
is reportedly normal in all other
areas. Totapuri fruit sizing is
reported to be normal and the crop
is expected to be bigger than in
2013. The mango growing regions
of Colombia are experiencing a
severe drought.
PASSIONFRUIT JUICE
The March/April peak production
period for passion fruit in Ecuador
started at a good pace, but has so
far failed to provide the extra
quantities the industry had hoped
for.
APRIL 2014
ISSN 1746-9805 (Online)
ORANGE JUICE
USA
The current USDA forecast for
Florida’s 2013/14 orange crop
is 114 million boxes (5.13
million tons), down 1% from the
previous forecast and down
12% from last season's final
figure. The early, midseason
and Navel varieties in Florida
are forecast at 53.0 million
boxes (2.39 million tons), down
2% from the last forecast and
down 21%from last season.
The
USDA
says
that
approximately 98% of the early
and midseason rows have now
been harvested.
The Florida Valencia orange
forecast, at 61.0 million boxes
(2.75
million
tons),
is
unchanged from the previous
forecast but down 8% from last
season.
Florida’s frozen concentrated
orange juice (FCOJ) yield
forecast for the 2013/14
season is 1.61 gallons per box
(42 brix), unchanged from the
last forecast but up 1% from
last season's final yield of 1.59
gallons per box.
Analysts suggest the reduced
180
FLORIDA ORANGE CROP
SOURCE : USDA
160
million
boxes
140
.Dec-13 est
Mar-14 est.
120
year-ending 30 Nov
100
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2014
ORANGE JUICE FUTURES CONTRACT*
200
23 Jan 2012 (219.95)
6 Mar 2007 (208.6)
150
cents / lb
solid
1 June 2004 (54.65)
11 Mar 2014 (158.5)
100
18 Feb 2009 (66.25)
18 May 2012 (102.2)
50
Jan-04
Source : ICE
Jan-06
ISSUE 103
* Nearby contract, day close
Jan-08
Jan-10
Jan-12
Jan-14
PAGE 1
APRIL 2014
figure for the early and
midseason
forecast
was
anticipated by the industry.
The fruit drop has been
unusually high and some were
expecting an even bigger
decrease.
The market is split as to
whether there will be further
cuts in this month’s forecast
from the USDA. Some would
argue that the USDA has done
a good job of factoring the
increased fruit drop rates into
the forecast, others would say
that the USDA number is still
too high. It is likely that the
USDA will go into a “wait and
see” mode until there is more
information on the Valencia
processing.
Futures
The FCOJ futures market has
climbed again this month
FLORIDA FCOJ - MOVEMENT DOWN 8.2% (WEEK 25)
Movement of Florida FCOJ (Week 25) continues to decline and is
8.2% lower than the same period a year earlier, according to
FDOC.
Inventory volume is down 13.1%. However, adjusted for lower
movement, Juice Market estimates the figure stands at 36.8 weeks
- marginally higher at the same point a year earlier.
60
FLORIDA - FCOJ - INVENTORY
WEEKS
WEEK 25, 22 Mar-14: 36.8
50
40
WEEKS
30
20
WEEK 25, 23 Mar-13: 35.8
CORRECTED FOR MOVEMENT
10
Jan-01
Jan-04
Jan-07
SOURCE : FDOC
Jan-10
Jan-13
10
FLORIDA - FCOJ - MOVEMENT
8
6
Million
Gallons
4
2
0
Jan-01
SOURCE : FDOC
Jan-04
Jan-07
Jan-10
Jan-13
ISSSUE 103
SUPERMARKET SQUEEZES
SUGAR OUT OF JUICE
UK supermarket chain Waitrose
has
introduced
own-label
apple and orange juice drinks
that contain stevia.
The launch follows concern in
the press about the sugar
content in fruit juice.
trading around USD1.53/lb
solid at the end of last week.
Traders say this is mainly due
to speculative buying.
Indeed, most of the soft
commodities have experienced
higher pricing recently with
coffee and sugar surging.
FCOJ futures also benefited
from the lack of rain news from
Brazil.
Moreover, there has been a
large differential between the
FCOJ cash market and futures
market for some time, so this
could be a correction. Cash
prices for FCOJ are close to
USD2.00/lb solid and the
futures is still less than
USD1.60/lb. Also, nearly the
entire Florida crop is being
processed into NFC so there is
very little “all Florida” FCOJ to
buy.
Market direction
The main market drivers the
industry is now focusing on
includes the drop rate and
sizing for the Valencia harvest.
In addition, analysts are
already trying to gauge the
activity for the next hurricane
season, although that is still a
way off. Imports are still behind
pre-season expectations and
industry sources are keen to
get an updated Brazilian crop
report for next season - there
are expectations that the lack
of rain will cause some issues
there.
At the same time weak
demand continues to plague
the market. Orange juice
PAGE 2
APRIL 2014
EUROPE ORANGE JUICE & NECTAR CONSUMPTION
5000
4750
4500
million litres
4250
4000
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
SOURCE : Juice Market research, trade association data
continues to receive negative
press regarding its sugar content
and there is recent news that fat
consumption is not nearly
important
as
carbohydrate
consumption when looking at
heart disease prevention, say
industry sources.
Growing conditions
The climate in Florida has
been quite good recently,
unlike California, Florida has
received ample rainfall. Rainfall
is above average for the first
three months of 2014 and cool
to mild temperatures prevail.
The bloom for next season is
reportedly
“very,
very
good”. However, last year’s
flowering looked good too but
the drop rate continued to climb
throughout the season.
USDA FORECASTS 6% GROWTH IN OJ PRODUCTION IN
2013/14
The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) has forecast
global orange juice production (65 Brix equivalent) for 2013/14 at 2.0
million tonnes, up 6% from the previous year with growth in Brazil
more than offsetting declines in the United States and Mexico.
This forecast increase is 20% lower than the peak 2010/11 global
production and comes on the back of consumption trending lower.
3000
ORANGE JUICE - GLOBAL PRODUCTION
2000
Other
China
Mexico
'000 MT
European Union
United States
Brazil
1000
0
2008/09
2009/10
2010/11
2011/12
2012/13
2013/14
ISSUE 103
SOURCE : USDA
In terms of the fundamental
data on orange juice trade in
the
US,
Florida
FCOJ
movement is down 8.2%, and
inventories are down 13.1%.
The problem is that with lower
movement,
current
FCOJ
inventory represents nearly
36.8 weeks of movement
compared with 35.8 weeks at
this time last year. The A C
Nielsen data shows retail sales
down 5% season-to-date with
prices virtually unchanged.
As mentioned, imports are
down and there are reports that
Mexico is experiencing an off
crop year. There is the
possibility that the drought
California is experiencing is
extending into Mexico.
Brazil
The market in Brazil is quiet.
The 2013/14 crop is now over
and juice yields reportedly
finished 15% below the fouryear
average.
Processing
plants are now running lemons
and limes.
Growing conditions are a little
dry there and the early fruits for
next season such as Hamlin
and Pera are small and are
expected to stay that way.
Nevertheless, this has no
bearing on the more important
later
varieties
such
as
Valencia.
The crop is predicted to come
in somewhere between 310320 million boxes.
Offers for concentrate are
stable at USD2050-2150/tonne
66 brix FCA Europe –
unchanged on last month.
Buyers are just taking on the
stocks they need and there is
still no incentive to take on long
-term positions.
Stocks remain fairly high in
Brazil and analysts say the
reduction in consumption that
the US is experiencing is
almost certainly being mirrored
in Europe. This is corroborated
PAGE 3
APRIL 2014
by research carried out by
Juice Market which indicates a
steady decline from 2007 (see
chart in previous page).
Moreover, there are reports
that uptake of NFC juice is also
starting to go down in the US,
albeit in small negatives at the
moment.
Nevertheless, analysts are
keen to point out that
production in both the US and
Brazil is also lower than in
previous years.
GLOBAL APPLE JUICE & NECTAR CONSUMPTION 7.1BN. LITRES
Global apple juice consumption is estimated at 7.1bn. Litres in
2013 - the same level as 2012 and equivalent to 19% of all juice
and nectar consumed.
GLOBAL FRUIT JUICE & NECTAR CONSUMPTION - 2013 (e)
OTHERS
ORANGE JUICE
Next season
The 2014/15 season will be a
uniform crop – the two
flowerings so far were close
together and any further
flowering will lead to fruit that
can be easily distinguished
from the first two blooms. This
makes picking easier and leads
to better quality fruit run
through the processors in
terms of yields and brix.
In other news, the three major
juice processors have lost an
appeal in a regional court
which challenged the way they
contract for farm labourers.
APPLE JUICE
Europe’s key apple juice
producer
Poland
is
still
experiencing a lack of high acid
supplies. Analysts say the
situation is unlikely to get any
better until production from the
2014 crop comes on stream in
September.
Total production of apple
concentrate from the 2013/14
season is estimated to have
reached just 160 000-200 000
tonnes.
Nevertheless, trade sources
say there is probably still
enough available to supply the
market until the next season.
Current offers for high acid
juice where available are at
EUR1020-1300/tonne 70 brix
APPLE
JUICE
19%
GRAPEFRUIT JUICE
PINEAPPLE JUICE
GLOBAL APPLE JUICE & NECTAR CONSUMPTION
7500
7250
7000
million litres
6750
6500
2005
2500
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
APPLE JUICE & NECTAR CONSUMPTION - 2013 (e)
TOP TEN
2055
2000
1500
1475
million litres
1000
572
500
300
287
239
212
190
174
98
0
Source: Juice Market research; trade association data
ISSUE 103
PAGE 4
APRIL 2014
3%+ acid ex works Poland,
compared with EUR11501300/tonne
last
month.
Demand has been slow in the
first quarter of the year, but
April has seen a slight
increase in uptake. Most
bottlers are only covered until
the first or second quarter.
There is reportedly concern
that the lower pricing and slow
uptake will lead some of the
smaller
producers
into
bankruptcy and thus into the
hands of the two large
producers there.
Next season
It is still too early for flowering
for the 2014/15 crop. The
apple orchards are slowly
showing juvenile leaves and
flowering is expected in mid-to
-end of April – slightly earlier
than usual. The frost danger is
normally within the first 11
days of May.
The winter was rather warm,
with only two weeks frost, but
the trees regenerated well,
even without snow cover.
The first indications on the size
of the 2014 crop in Poland can
not be made until the bloom has
arrived, say industry sources.
Meanwhile, there are reports
about a possible lifting of the
custom fees for exports from the
Ukraine to Europe, which would
not be good for the Polish apple
concentrate
business.
Investments in the Ukraine
industry and by Ukrainian
companies in Poland are on
hold until the situation is
resolved.
China
Offers for apple concentrate in
China have eased slightly to
USD1350-1450/tonne 70 brix
low
acid
FOB
China,
compared with USD14501500/tonne last month.
This is still too expensive for
Europe, particularly given the
30% European import tax that
Chinese supplies are subject to.
Analysts suggest the Chinese
industry is sitting on around
200 000-300 000 tonnes of
concentrate at present.
As with the European crops it is
still too early for any forecasts
on the next crop in China. The
flowering is expected in around
one months time.
LEMON JUICE
The 2014 lemon crop in Argentina is described as a “disaster”.
Production is predicted to be at least 40% on last year and the
harvest has been delayed until the end of April.
Stocks are low following a poor crop last year and those processors
with supplies are not offering. Demand is still slow at the moment,
but more buyers are beginning to make enquiries as news of the
shortage spreads.
Offers for concentrate are firm and unstable at USD3500-3800/
tonne cloudy 400 gpl FOB Argentina. This is a significant increase
on the expected opening offers of USD2800/tonne.
7500
LEMON JUICE - OFFER PRICE
400 gpl CLOUDY
FOB BUENOS AIRES
5000
USD /
TONNE
2500
0
Jan-99
Jan-02
Jan-05
Jan-08
Jan-11
Jan-14
2000
ARGENTINA - LEMON PRODUCTION
not for processing
for processing
1500
'000
tonnes
1000
500
0
2009/10
2010/11
2011/12
2012/13
2013/14
Source : USDA
ISSUE 103
PAGE 5
APRIL 2014
GRAPE JUICE
GRAPEFRUIT JUICE
The 2014 grape crop in
Argentina was delayed by two
weeks and will now finish in
early April. Current forecasts
on the crop point to a 25-30%
reduction on last year. The
situation is aggravated by the
fact that the government quota
that earmarks the amount of
grapes that will be made
available to the processing
sector was reduced to 18% this
season from 30% last year
The reason behind the lower
supply from the crop is
primarily adverse weather.
Frost followed by heavy rain
during January and February.
The San Juan region received
its entire annual rainfall in just
one week - this area is
responsible for nearly 35% of
the country’s production. It is
also a key region for juice
production.
Argentina carried in 40 00050 000 tonnes into the new
season and this was reportedly
the reason for the lower quota.
There were projections that
producers would have around
120 000 tonnes available for
export as they did last year.
However, the poor crop will
mean there is likely to be just
100 000 tonnes shipped this
year.
Local sources in Argentina say
they will have the first solid
production figures from the
crop in early May.
Prices for concentrate have
moved up slightly over the
past two months but demand
is weak. Industry sources do
not see prices rising much
further, because many buyers
will simply turn to similar
cheaper fillers such as apple
juice concentrate. In addition
there are no problems with
the supply of white grape in
other
global
producing
regions.
The 2013/14 US grapefruit crop
is forecast at 1.06 million tons,
down 4% from the previous
forecast and down 11% from
last season's final figure, says
the USDA.
In Florida the crop has been cut
by 1 million boxes to 16 million
boxes. The white supply is now
at 4 million boxes (500 000
boxes down on the previous
month). The coloured varieties
have been cut-back by the same
degree to 12 million boxes.
In Florida, both coloured and
white grapefruit droppage is the
highest of any non-hurricane
season.
The cut to the crop is attributed
to both droppage and sizing.
February and March is when
most of the field-run grapefruit
is processed – it is likely that
the field-run figure is coming in
below
expectations,
say
analysts in Florida.
The Florida crop is at its height
at the moment, but the old
adage of “a small crop, get
smaller” is likely to be true this
year given the problems with
greening and the fruit drop
associated with it.
In terms of pricing white juice is
offered at USD2.10/lb solid and
coloured supplies are trading
for just USD1.20/lb solid.
Production is actually up
slightly, but movement is down
16%. Inventory is up 2.4% and
A C Nielsen retail movement is
down 10%.
It is too early for any indication
on next years grapefruit crop in
the US. Meanwhile, the small
grapefruit crops in Mexico will
bring some extra supplies to
market, but in general the
declining global supply is being
matched by sinking demand.
Offers for grapefruit juice in
Europe are expensive at
USD3500/tonne 9+ ratio 58 brix
CFR Europe. Lower ratio
ISSUE 103
supplies can be picked up a
couple of hundred dollars per
tonne cheaper.
There is limited trading in
Europe - most contracts were
fixed on an annual basis back
in November and December.
Consumption is reportedly still
waning Europe.
PINEAPPLE JUICE
The winter pineapple crop in
Thailand wound up mid-March
and the plants will now go into
maintenance mode until the
summer crop begins around 20
April. The winter crop was
disappointing – it had no real
peak production period and
climatic conditions also caused
quality problems.
Growing
conditions
for the
forthcoming crop have been volatile
recently fluctuating between cold
spells below 20 degrees centigrade
up to scorching heat of 40 degrees
centigrade. There is also a drought
in place in Thailand and industry
sources say it is likely that El Nino
conditions are in place. This would
mean the plantations would be
subject to drought all year.
The seasonal rains are usually
expected
after
the
Thai
Songkran festival on April 13
and if those rains do not arrive
then there’s going to be a
problem with the supply from
the summer crop, say analysts.
In spite of the pessimistic view it
is still slightly too early for any
accurate forecasts on the
summers crop. Indeed, some
analysts say it is impossible to
make reliable forecasts at any
time due to the fragmented
nature of the industry there.
Once again, it is suggested that
market pricing will be determined
by demand rather than supply
during the next quarter and there
are the familiar reports that
consumption of 100% pineapple
juice in Europe continues to
decline.
PAGE 6
APRIL 2014
Supply
There is limited availability of
produce at the moment due to
the ratio quality problems
mentioned last month delaying
shipping. Stocks are also down
due to the sustained cold spell
leading to poorer quality
produce.
If buyers were happy with high
nitrate and/or low ratio produce
then the Thai processors could
ship straight away.
There is unlikely to be any
problems with high nitrate
levels going forward - a
condition that was reportedly
only endemic in the southwestern regions.
It is unclear on the extent of the
supply sitting in European cold
stores, it would appear there is
availability, but trade sources
point out that even frozen stocks
only have a storage life of one
year. Aseptic supplies can only
be kept for three to four months
before they begin to discolour.
Raw
material
prices
are
currently at THB8.20/kg – which
is an historic high.
Industry sources suggest that
opening prices for the summer
crop will be at similar levels.
Offers for concentrate are
currently at USD1200-1550/
tonne 60/65 brix (high ratio)
FOB Bangkok, compared with
a similarly wide spread last
month
of
USD1250-1550/
tonne. Asking prices for NFC
pineapple juice are around
USD500-600/tonne
aseptic
single strength FOB Bangkok.
Demand remains slack at the
moment. Nevertheless, traders
say that while many buyers
have fixed contracts until at
least Autumn, there are still
buyers with short positions.
Other regions
There are reports that the supply
from all other producing regions
is short. Costa Rica have limited
availability and have increased
prices levels as a result.
Good quality NFC stocks from
Costa Rica are fetching
USD850/tonne deep-frozen in
cylindrical drums CFR Europe.
There are no offers out of
Vietnam and Indonesia is also
reportedly starting to have
problems with drought.
MANGO JUICE
Alphonso
The 2014 Alphonso mango crop
is just around the corner and
local sources say that while fruit
sizing is below normal in the
Bangalore region owing to lack
of rains, sizing is reportedly
normal in all other areas.
The crop size is expected to be
15-20% bigger this year
compared with 2013.
The demand for authentic
Alphonso mango puree is
expected to be higher than 20 000
tonnes given that prices are
expected to be 10-15% lower
than last year.
Nevertheless, production will
be constrained by the lack of
working capital.
The fruit needs to be paid for in
cash on delivery and the banks
are
unwilling
to
provide
working capital for the industry.
Trade sources in India say
there are absolutely no free
stocks of authentic or blended
Alphonso puree in India or
Europe and that there are
regular enquiries from Europe
about new season price levels.
As mentioned new season
prices are likely to be 10-15%
lower than the USD1675-1775/
tonne 15-17 brix FOB India
offered during the 2013 crop.
However, the lower fruit cost is
expected to be partially neutralised
by the weaker US dollar.
Totapuri
Totapuri fruit sizing and quality
ISSUE 103
is reported to be normal in all
growing regions and the crop is
expected to be 10-15% bigger
than in 2013.
Local sources in India say
there are no stocks of 28 brix
concentrate available in India
and Europe and that stocks of
Totapuri puree are estimated
to be below 100 tonnes in both
regions.
Offers for puree are at USD675
-700/tonne FOB India and
asking prices for concentrate,
where available are USD10251075/tonne 28 brix FOB India –
both on par with last month.
New season price levels are
expected to be offered at the
same levels – the savings
made through cheaper fruit
costs are expected to be offset
by the weaker US dollar.
There are regular enquiries for
both Totapuri puree and
concentrate and buyers appear
to be only covered until the end
of this month.
Most mango processors are
facing acute financial problems
this
season.
Banks
are
reluctant to provide working
capital support and processors
are forced to borrow at high
costs from private lenders.
Americas
The main summer mango crop
in Colombia began last week.
Production from the winter crop
has long since sold out and
local producers say that in
spite
of
strong
demand
warehouses have been empty
for one month now.
New season prices for mango
concentrate are at USD13001340/tonne 28 brix CFR
Europe, depending on the
volume, shipping program and
packaging.
European traders concur that
they have heard there is no
real change to pricing or the
supply
from
Colombia
compared with last year.
PAGE 7
APRIL 2014
As mentioned demand is
buoyant. The crop in India and
Mexico is still at least a month
away and so producers in
Colombia will supply those
clients looking for prompt
shipments this month.
Drought
The mango growing regions of
Colombia are experiencing one
of the longest and most intense
droughts of the last 16 years.
Lots of animals are dying at the
fields and many major cities are
rationalizing the water use. Only
two years ago, the country was
experiencing drastic flooding,
which local sources say is a sign
that the climate is becoming
more and more erratic. Some
regions have declared a “State
of Emergency".
So far the mango crops are
one of the few agricultural
products that have not yet been
affected.
Providing the crop is not
adversely affected by the current
drought, the 2014 crop will
produce normal quantities, with
around 75 000-80 000 tonnes of
fruit being crushed.
Around 50% of this production
has already been sold forward
mostly to long standing regular
customers, say processors.
PASSIONFRUIT
JUICE
The
March/April
peak
production period for passion
fruit in top-producer Ecuador
started at a good pace, but has
so far failed to provide the
extra quantities the industry
had hoped for.
Buyers are reportedly getting
the
stocks
they
have
contracted, but there are hardly
any extra supplies to satisfy
new demand. Many contracts
were made before the March/
April peak began at price levels
around USD8500/tonne 50 brix
FCA Europe – much lower than
the current offers out of
Ecuador of USD9700/tonne.
This is because the processors
believed the crop would be
plentiful and lead to lower fruit
prices. However, when it was
clear that production would be
significantly
down
on
expectations all further offers
were withdrawn.
Traders in Europe agree that
prices dropped in January, but
that if buyers wanted product
for prompt shipment now they
could
expect
to
pay
USD10000/tonne.
Both processors and European
importers are now waiting for a
better supply of fruit to bring
prices down. One European
trader said he was expecting
prices to get down to USD7000/
tonne by the end of May.
It is unlikely there will be any
discounting on supplies until
production increases significantly.
Nevertheless, processors say
that if buyers were willing to take
on longer term positions then
there is the possibility of lower
pricing albeit for limited quantities
and depending on the time of
delivery. The longer the delivery
period - the lower the price.
Outlook
Local sources in Ecuador
expect the situation to remain
as it is for the next two to three
months. There is still a
possibility that the supply will
improve
this
month,
but
probably not enough to have
any major impact on pricing.
It is hard to pin down the extent
of demand given the lack of
availability, but it is reasonable
to assume that if buyers are
receiving
the
contracted
supplies on time then there is
the chance of prices softening
down the road.
However, some processors
ISSUE 103
could be banking on an
improved supply before long
and are holding back from
making any contracts for as
long as possible. This could
lead to a surge in demand
when prices do drop down to
slightly more acceptable levels.
Processors advise importers to
try to negotiate an extended
deal with a lower average, if
possible.
Slow recovery
Growing
conditions
are
favourable and encouraged by
the sustained high fruit prices
the famers continue to plant
passion fruit.
As
mentioned
there
are
expectations of a much better
supply in the second half of the
year. While this will lead to lower
pricing, local industry sources in
Ecuador say that offers will not
drop as low as they have done
in the past. Passion fruit is
reportedly more costly to
produce than before and the
yields have been on the low side
for the last few years.
In addition, the comeback that
Peru made two to three years
ago,
has
failed
to
be
maintained. Strong demand
from the local fresh fruit market
there has left virtually nothing
for the processing sector.
Ecuador, since it relies mostly
on the export market, is
holding its position much
better.
Local producers say the
industry there is certainly
recovering from a three-year
low production trough, but that
the market will just have to wait
a
fraction
longer
than
anticipated.
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reproduced or distributed in any
form or by any means, or stored in
a database or retrieval system,
without
the
prior
written
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PAGE 8