Northwest Economic Research Center
College of Urban and Public Affairs
SB306 Clean Air Tax or Fee Final Report
December 2014
Presenters
o Dr. Thomas Potiowsky
NERC Director | PSU Econ Dept Chair
o Jeff Renfro
NERC Senior Economist
o Dr. Jenny H Liu
NERC Assistant Director
PSU Assistant Professor of Urban Studies & Planning
o Dr. Chris Butenhoff
PSU Assistant Professor of Physics
o Dr. Andrew Rice
PSU Associate Professor of Physics
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Background
March 2013 – Carbon Tax & Shift Report
August 2013 – SB306 effective
September 2013 – SB306 RFP process
October 2013 – Project start
• Monthly LRO update meetings
• Technical Advisory Committee meetings
• Stakeholder group meetings
• Updates to Legislative committees
o November 2014 – Completion of report
o
o
o
o
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Limiting Carbon Emissions
o Regulatory controls
o Market mechanisms
• Carbon cap-and-trade
• Carbon tax
Carbon
Emissions
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Economy
Carbon
Tax
Revenue
4
Methodology | Modeling Overview
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Methodology | Establish Baselines
o Economic baseline
o Emissions baseline
• Energy-related fossil fuel combustion
• Oregon Greenhouse Gas Inventory
• In-boundary: natural gas & petroleum
• In-boundary + Out-of-state: electricity
• EIA NEMS & ODOE projected energy
demand
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See Report Appendix I for detailed breakdown
of methodology
6
Methodology | Revenue Repatriation
& Usage Scenario Development
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See Report Appendix II for more detail on
scenario schematic
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Methodology | Revenue Repatriation
& Usage Scenario Development
o A Scenarios: Financial Reserve and
General Fund
o B Scenarios: Revenue Neutral
• Reduction in Taxes and Fees
o C Scenarios: Revenue Neutral
Excluding Transportation-Related
Revenues
• Also Citizen Dividend Scenarios
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Methodology | Revenue Repatriation
& Usage Scenario Development
o D Scenarios: Public Investment and
Expenditures
• Low Income/Worker Assistance
• Targeted Industry Support
• Energy Efficiency
o E Scenarios: Alternative
Transportation Revenue Disbursement
• Unweighted VMT
• Non-Highway Transportation Funding
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Results | Emissions
20
50
0
40
-20
30
20
10
1990 reference
Baseline
$10
$30
$45
$60
$100
$125
$150
0
2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032
-40
-60
-80
Pct. difference relative to
1990
Energy-related Emissions,
mmTCO2e
60
-100
See Results: Carbon Tax Scenarios for full
breakdown of emissions results
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Results | Emissions
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Results | Emissions
Central, 3.5%
Eastern, 4.1%
Central, 3.7%
Eastern, 4.3%
Valley, 21.0%
Valley, 21.9%
Southwest, 6.8%
Southwest, 7.0%
Northwest, 2.3%
Metro, 62.3%
Northwest, 2.4%
$30/ton
Baseline
Central, 3.8%
Central, 3.8%
Eastern, 4.5%
Valley, 22.7%
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Eastern, 4.6%
Valley, 23.0%
Southwest, 7.1%
Northwest, 2.4%
Metro, 60.7%
Metro, 59.5%
$60/ton
Southwest,
7.2%
Metro, 59.0%
Northwest,
2.4%
$100/ton
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Results | Revenues
Tax revenue (million $2012)
5000
4500
4000
3500
3000
2500
$4550
$150/ton
$125
$100
$60
$45
$30
$10
$4020
$3450
$2350
2000
$1870
1500
$1350
1000
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$490
500
0
2012
2016
2020
2024
2028
2032
See Results: Revenue for breakdown of
revenue estimates
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Results | Oregon Economy Basics
2013
Employment = 1,679,377
GDP = $219,590,000,000
Real GDP growth = 4.4%
Total Compensation =
$97,755,000,000
Population = 3,930,065
Annual State Budget (General + Lottery) =
$8.2 billion
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Results | Employment
3500
Thousands of Jobs
3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
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Oregon
$100/ton Financial Reserve
$30/ton All General Fund
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Results | Overview
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See Revenue Repatriation and Expenditure
Scenario Results for economic impacts
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Results | Jobs Index
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Thousands of Jobs (relative to baseline)
Scenario Results
B.2 - Employment Impacts
9
4
-1
-6
$10/ton
-11
$30/ton
$60/ton
-16
$100/ton
$150/ton
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See Report Appendix II for detailed
breakdown of scenario economic impacts
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Scenario Results
B.2.30 – Regional Employment Impacts
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Scenario Results
B.2 - Output Impacts
Percent Change (relative to baseline)
1.00%
0.50%
0.00%
-0.50%
$10/ton
$30/ton
$60/ton
-1.00%
$100/ton
$150/ton
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Scenario Results
B.2.30 – Industry Impacts
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Thousands of Jobs
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Scenario Results
B.2.30 Key Industry Impacts
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See Revenue Repatriation and Expenditure
Scenario Results: Key Industries
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Thousands of Jobs (relative to baseline)
Scenario Results
C.4 - Employment Impacts
9
7
5
3
1
-1
-3
-5
$10/ton
$30/ton
-7
$60/ton
-9
$100/ton
$150/ton
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Scenario Results
C.4.30 – Regional Employment Impacts
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Scenario Results
C.4 - Output Impacts
Percent Change (relative to baseline)
1.00%
0.50%
0.00%
-0.50%
$10/ton
$30/ton
$60/ton
-1.00%
$100/ton
$150/ton
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Scenario Results
C.4.30 – Industry Impacts
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Thousands of Jobs
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Evaluation | Carbon Tax and
Existing Oregon Laws
o Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS)
o Motor Vehicle Emissions
• Low-Carbon Fuels Standards (Clean Fuels Program)
• Renewable Fuels Standards (RFS)
• Motor Vehicle Emissions Standards
o Electric Utilities
• Emissions reporting requirements
• Electric utility facility siting requirements and
standards
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See Evaluation of Carbon Tax Relative to
Existing Oregon Laws for full analysis
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Evaluation |
Carbon Tax and
Existing Oregon
Laws
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Other
Considerations
Further
Research
Border Tariffs
Energy efficiency
feedback
Non-Combustion
Emissions
Increase data
detail
Impact on Tourism
Implementation
Impact on
Government
Health impacts
Emissions
feedbacks
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See Further Research and Applications
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Conclusions
o Significant emissions impacts and revenue
generating potential
o Economic impacts are small relative to
broader economy
• Differ by region, income, and industry
o Possible to offset negative impacts with
targeted expenditure or investment
http://www.pdx.edu/nerc/projects/
[email protected]
@nercpdx
503-725-8167
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