One billion
Opportunities
for Africa
Building Human Capital for
Inclusive Growth
Africa‘s metamorphosis…
 Demographic
 Rapid
explosion
economic growth
 Technological
 Political
revolution
transformation
 Environmental
 Aid
2
landscape
challenges
Demographic explosion..
3
A strikingly large youth bulge in Africa
4
Source: CIA World Fact-book 2009
http://www.prb.org/pdf11/2011population-data-sheet_eng.pdf
Youth bulge.. the continent‘s greatest asset, or
potential risk ?
Working age population (15-64) in the world
1 600
1 400
1 200
Africa
SE Asia
1 000
Europe
800
LAC
South America
600
North America
400
China
India
200
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
Million inhabitants
1 billion people today,
2.3 billion by 2050
Africa is the..
 Most populous
continent after Asia
 Youngest region
in the world
..And will have the
largest workforce
by 2040 surpassing
China and India
Source : UNSTAT. World Population Prospects 2010.
5
Rapid but non-inclusive growth
6
out of 10
fastest-growing
economies are
in SSA (Angola,
Nigeria, Ethiopia, Chad,
Mozambique, Rwanda)
6
out of 10 most
unequal
countries are in
SSA (SA, CAR)
6
Double Trouble
60% youth unemployment in Africa and many underemployed,
especially the most educated…
60
Unemployment Rate %, total and youth
48
50
40
30
34
24
20
25
21
27
22
10
10
2 3
7
25
24
20
14
11
0
Unemployment, youth
total (% of total labor
force ages 15-24)
Unemployment, total (%
of total labor force)
31
3
6
2
4
Technology wave

The total African mobile
subscriber base is roughly 281
million and expected to reach
561 million in 2012

8
Yet Africa lags behind in
connectivity and internet access
…only 3 out of 1000 are internet
users in Sierra Leone …1 out of 1000
has a computer in Niger
Africa lagging behind in the broadband race
9
Political shifts…less conflict.. more demand for
voice and accountability
10
Governance Indicators (World Bank, 2010)
Voice and
Accountability
80,0
60,0
Control of
Corruption
40,0
Political Stability
20,0
SSA
MENA
0,0
Tunis
Government
Effectiveness
Rule of Law
Regulatory Quality
11
Environmental changes..
 Impact
of drought, food shortages on
nutrition, particularly in the Horn of Africa
12
Changing aid landscape
 Economic
and financial crisis
 Global
fund, decrease in HIV/AIDS
funding
 New
donors e.g., China investing in
infrastructure
 Higher
13
levels of remittances
Why the Bank should invest in human
capital
Core mandate: Inclusive growth and
poverty reduction
 Infrastructure – labor intensive, requiring
specialized skills
 Governance – 40-60% domestic spending
goes to social sectors
 Private sector – mismatch between skills
produced and quality of education and
labor market needs
 HEST – too few students in science
14
Why a human capital development
strategy?
Rising youth population is Africa‘s greatest
asset…
…capturing the demographic dividend…
………promoting inclusive growth……
15
Africa on the demographic upswing
Source: D Bloom and D Canning, “Demographics and Development Policy”, Development Outreach, April 2011
16
A one time opportunity ...
Capturing the demographic dividend similar to East
Asian miracle and unlike Latin America
17
Source : ILO, KILM 7.
Capturing the demographic dividend
18

Skills for competitiveness and jobs …
 Using new technologies to build a knowledge
economy
 Only an educated and healthy workforce can
be productive

Value for money, accountability and voice in
service delivery
 Integrate private spending in policymaking
 Addressing governance, voice and
accountability issues

Social inclusion and cohesion
Skills for competitiveness
and jobs
What will the Bank support ?
20

Skills development to support job creation and
private and public sector investments in
Infrastructure and other economic sectors.

Investments in Education will focus on better
matching the supply and demand for skilled
workers to address youth unemployment in Africa.
(NEMA)

Strengthening Science and Technology including
research and innovation as part of PPP

Regional Integration through regional centers of
excellence and regional networks of knowledge
Moving Africa from Knowledge
consumers to Knowledge Producers…
• Large numbers of
youth are being
pushed through the
education system,
but quality of
education remains
low—especially in
math and science
Too Few Students in Science: fields of Study for students
enrolled in Tertiary Education
Science
Engineering
Education
Social science, business & law
other
Marocco
Djibouti
Cameroon
Burundi
Guinea
Ethiopia
Cote d'Ivoire
Congo
Madagascar
Eritrea
Ghana
Niger
Namibia
Burkina Faso
Mali
Cap Verde
Algeria
CAR
Zimbabwe
• Number of students
in higher education
in Africa has tripled in
the last 10 years
21
• ....yet the best
university in Africa
ranks 324th globally
0
0,2
0,4
0,6
0,8
1
Access to Education improving...
but skills do not match labor market needs
Quality issue?
Or Mismatch
between
demand and
supply?
Education level
200
0
2009 or
LYA
%
change
Preschool Gross Enrolment rate (GER, %)
17.5
27.2
+55%
Primary Completion rate (%)
54.3
70.2
+29%
Lower secondary (GER, %)
42.3
56.4
+33%
Upper secondary (GER, %)
20.1
28.0
+40%
N.b. of Students per 100,000
inhabitants
406.
8
450.0
+11%
Parity Index (general secondary = 100)
10.8
8.8
-18%
509.
2
793.3
+56%
Technical and Vocational Education
Higher education
N.b. of Students per 100,000
inhabitants
The parity index (in %) represents the number of enrolled students in TVET per
100 students in general secondary education. Source AfDB data 2011
22
The most educated are more likely to be
unemployed or underemployed

Between 1999 and 2009, the number of university graduates in SubSaharan Africa more than tripled, rising from 1.6 mio. to 4.9 mio.
Unemployment rate among individuals aged 25-34
23
Source: Mingat (2006) African Development Bank, 2011
Education not relevant to the needs of
the job market…
24

In Tunisia, almost 30% of higher education graduates in 2004 were
still unemployed 3 years after graduation(twice the national
average);

Although increasing, the employment rate of vocational training
schools leavers was only 61% in Morocco in 2008, nine months after
graduation;

In Gabon in 2010, almost 90% of unemployed youths (16-24 years
old) would have preferred to obtain a job in the modern sector; less
than 2% were ready to engage in self-employment;

In Tanzania, Vocational Education capacity is far from meeting
current needs. The current annual flow of students into vocational
education is less than five percent of the potential demand for VET
skills.
New Model for Higher Education in Africa
(NEMA)
• ICT-based
•
The African Virtual
University has established
the largest network of
Open Distance and
eLearning institutions in
over 30 Sub Saharan
African countries and won
the 2011 ‗EducationPortal.com‘ prize.
•
The regional center of
excellence Carnegie
Mellon in Rwanda will be
the first highly ranked
American university to
operate a fully-fledged
campus in Africa
• Linkages with the labor market
• PPPs
• Develop critical thinking
• Participatory
• Evidence-based
25
Value for money,
accountability and voice
in service delivery
What will the Bank support ?
 Better
governance for results and
improved value for money
 Voice
and Accountability with focus on
ICT investments
 Private
sector engagement in service
delivery
27
Building accountability towards citizens
Compact
Voice
Client‘s Power
28
Value for money, accountability and
voice in service delivery



Fast track bank task force for private sector
engagement in HD
Address shortage teachers and health
workers…invest in Higher education to improve
both supply and quality
Governance …On average 40-60% of government
expenditure in Africa allocated to social spending






29
Absenteeism, shortages of books, drugs
Silent corruption
Improve national procurement systems
Transparent financial management
Results based financing
Voice in service delivery
Value for Money, Accountability and Voice in
service Delivery
30
Creating participatory, accountable, responsive and
inclusive governance systems in social service sectors in
Africa
 Increased
awareness of accountability in
the conduct of public affairs
 Increase
decentralization and
participatory approach to the planning
and budgetary process

31
Increased citizens participation in
measuring results and effectiveness of
service delivery
Social Inclusion and
Cohesion
What will the Bank support ?
 Safety


nets
Conditional Cash Transfers
Health insurance
 Productive


Safety nets
Microfinance
Social Businesses
 Nutrition:
food security, climate change
and livelihoods particularly in the Horn of
Africa
33
Implementation
Instruments
35

PBOs to support systemic policy reforms for
inclusive growth

Specific investments operations for institutional
strengthening and innovations

Partnerships

ESWs

Impact Evaluation
Institutional Reform
 Skills
mix towards realization of pillars
 Cross-departmental
ESWs and operations
 Country
policy dialogue as part of
decentralization rather than project focus
 HCD
36
assessment as part of CSPs
Implementation example 1:
infrastructure
Operationalizing HCD in Infrastructure
38

All projects / programs in Infrastructure to
have a broader, deeper Capacity Building
components for Human Capital
development.

Increased collaboration between
Infrastructure and HS Department in the
conception, design and implementation of
projects

Training of Task Managers in mainstreaming
HCD in projects or as stand alone capacity.
Implementing HCD in Water and
Sanitation
39

OWAS & AWF projects designs use labour
intensive and simple technologies, where
possible, to create jobs for locals.

OWAS operations has a special focus on
sanitation to address health and nutrition
challenges.

OWAS & AWF operations are now taking an
integrated approach to respond to social,
economic & environmental needs.
Implementation example
2: skills for job creation
Background paper for the African Economic
Outlook ―Promoting Youth Employment‖

OSHD and EDRE jointly prepared a background
paper for the AEO

Purpose: to improve our understanding of youth
unemployment in Africa

Original contribution: analysis of 16 African
household and labour force surveys

Team led by 1 consultant and 5 research assistants

Also resulted in paper submitted to the C10
Ministerial Meeting
41
Implementation example 3:
Impact evaluation program
Impact Evaluation Initiative

Each new OSHD project to include an impact
evaluation component

Purpose: to help RMCs generate evidence on the
impact of policies they implement and learn from
other countries‘ experience to ensure evidencebased policies

Close collaboration between OSHD and EDRE,
with the latter providing technical support and
advice

So far: projects in Ghana, Kenya, Malawi and
Kenya
43
Conclusion
•
A strategy to help Africa leapfrog its economic
and socio-economic development
•
High return if timely investments is made on
• Using new technologies to build a knowledge
economy
• Mechanisms for value for money and
accountability
• Inclusion
•
Need to integrate private spending in
policymaking
•
Importance for external aid to be catalytic: need
to focus on results and efficiency gains
Consultations
o
E-consultations
o
Face to face multi stakeholder
consultations with RMCs, donors, private
sector, academia planned (March-May)
o
June – Revised strategy submitted to
Board
A changing Africa in a
changing world…
“globalization and the information technology
revolution are creating a hyper connected
world. A world in which education, innovation
and talent will be rewarded more than ever.
A world in which there will be no more
"developed" and "developing countries," but
only HIEs (high-imagination-enabling countries)
and LIEs (low-imagination-enabling countries)”
Thomas Friedman