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EN
Trans ofIndustry
the Aging
form
ation
[ social ]
There’s something happening here.
What it is ain’t exactly clear.
Through their cautionary protest song, “For What
It’s Worth,” Buffalo Springfield and rock legend Stephen Stills reflected and amplified the zeitgeist of
1967: the social and cultural turmoil surrounding the
Vietnam War era. This stanza addresses confusion and
trepidation over escalating divisiveness within the nation’s borders.
In some odd ways, this protest ballad can be renewed and reinterpreted today as the nation confronts
population aging. Heated conversations, recurring almost daily through national media, focus on inexorable
increases in the costs of Social Security and Medicare;
the questionable benefits and clearcut liabilities of
growing old; and, dictated by tradition, the acquiescent
social roles that older adults should accept.
Something unprecedented is happening here. Western countries and many eastern countries are growing
old fast. Of all the people who have ever reached the
age of sixty-five, half of them are alive right now.1 Keep
in mind that preceding the seven billion people who
are alive today, one-hundred billion have lived and
died during the last fifty-five thousand years.2
Population aging is not new or novel. Those cards
were played in the 1940s, 1950s, and 1960s during the
post-World War II birth boom. Demographics are
destiny, and so here we are now in the middle of an
aging boom. What a surprise!
But there is another force intersecting population
aging that is challenging and changing every industry.
We are living in an era of transformational technologies accelerating at an exponential pace—from genetics to robotics and from information to nanotechnology—the so-called GRIN technologies. Relative to
human history and the snail’s pace of change in the
distant past, the twenty-first century will not involve
one hundred years of progress; it will become twenty
thousand years of progress.
CSA JOURNAL 61 / WINTER 2015 / SOCIETY OF CERTIFIED SENIOR ADVISORS / WWW.CSA.US
PAGE 27
So, we have extraordinary population aging arriving at exactly the same moment as exponential technological changes. Something’s happening here.
It follows that we cannot be fully capable in the
field of aging, serving older adults, without also becoming futurists. And what is a futurist? Someone who
believes in the need to look forward with optimism.
Generational Tempest Narrative
Two narratives are competing for public consciousness about aging. The Generational Tempest
Narrative portends doom-and-gloom scenarios
when the costs of social insurance overwhelm government tax revenues, with older generations committing the sin of fiscal child abuse on the youngest
and unborn generations.
According to Laurence Kotlikoff and Scott Burns
in their disturbing book, The Clash of Generations: Saving Ourselves, Our Kids, and Our Economy, the nation’s
“unfunded liabilities”—money needed by the federal government to pay for all its current promises to
retirees, federal employees, military families, and disadvantaged groups—have reached a mind-boggling
$211 trillion.3
Keep in mind that the nation’s gross domestic
product (GDP) in 2013 was $16.8 trillion. Thus, assuming no growth or contraction in future GDP, it
will take 12.5 years of income, derived from all goods
and services produced and sold by all the companies
and individuals in the U.S., simply to pay for promises
made to retirees and other “dependents” through the
end of this century.
Is this haunting view of the future what’s going down?
On the contrary, Stephen Mihm, an assistant professor of economic history at the University of Georgia, pushes back with an interesting observation about
predictions made by economists:
“Recessions are signal events in any modern
economy. And yet remarkably, the profession of economics is quite bad at predicting
them. A recent study looked at ‘consensus
forecasts’ (the predictions of large groups
of economists) that were made in advance
of sixty different national recessions that
hit around the world in the 1990s: in 97
percent of the cases, the study found, the
economists failed to predict the coming
contraction a year in advance.”4
Look at this another way. Find a generational accountant or economist who, in writing, predicted two
of the most significant business and technological
PAGE 28
changes in the twentieth century just ten years before
these transformations. Try to identify someone now
predicting economic disaster in the mid-twenty-first
century who, in 1975, also predicted how desktop microcomputers would transform everything in business
by 1985. Try to discover a generational accounting expert who, in 1985, predicted the advent and adoption
of the internet in 1995.
Members of today’s oldest generations were at the
center of these major transformations, not merely bystanders. In the mid-1970s, Bill Gates founded Microsoft, and Steve Jobs founded Apple, begetting the personal computer industries. Tim Berners-Lee, a British
baby boomer, created the World Wide Web, authoring
the hypertext markup computer language we use every
day when we type http:// into an internet browser. Interestingly, these three digital revolution pioneers were
born in 1955.
Looking back over our shoulders today, we can see
historical precursors hearkening forthcoming societal
transformations around desktop computers and distributed digital networks, including their concomitant
economic transformations. If anti-entitlement soothsayers could not predict these major changes ten, or
even two years before they happened, how reliable can
they be at predicting the future thirty, forty, or fifty
years from now?
Warren Buffet, the fourth richest man in the world
with a personal wealth of $67.5 billion, has faith in the
growth potential of the U.S. economy. He forcefully
contradicts those who think pessimistically about the
impact of social insurance on the overall economy.
“We’ve made certain promises that promise away a portion of the pie,” Buffet said
during a television interview in 2008. “But
the wonderful thing is that the pie gets
larger. Even with one percent per year real
productivity growth per capita, we double
the GDP in per capita in real terms in seventy-five years when the Social Security
projections go up. So even though seniors
may get more of the pie, the pie will grow
enough so that everybody will get more of
the pie.”5
In The Clash of Generations, for example, Kotlikoff
and Burns predict that the U.S. GDP in 2030 will be
$23.08 trillion. They further predict that the combined
cost of Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid will
be $3 trillion, or a hefty 13 percent of GDP. However, the respected Centre for Economics and Business
Research, World Economic League, proposes that
the U.S. economy will produce a more robust
$33.15 trillion GDP in 2030. The social insurance programs would then be 9.05 percent of
GDP, a more manageable scenario in line with
Buffet’s optimism.7
Transformation Narrative
What might propel the making of a much
heftier economic pie, one large enough to
feed generations of all ages, including Millennials (b. 1980-1995) and Generation Z (b.
1996-present)?
The transformation narrative points to economic expansion because of the creative and
unexpected ways that today’s oldest generations have historically changed business and
society. Science, technology, and social action
can advance economies that embrace the opportunities rather than the problems of aging.
Transformation is in the DNA of generations that reached adulthood during the early
to mid-twentieth century. Those generations
have challenged business norms and contemporary thinking at each life stage. They have fueled company and product creation with their
fads, fashions, foibles, and refusals to accept
past as prologue.
Their numbers and shared values have
grown multinational firms such as Microsoft,
Apple, McDonald’s, Honda, Harley-Davidson,
Nike, and Starbucks. They have transformed
outlying bohemian villages into tony places
such as Asheville, Telluride, and Santa Fe. They
have ignited investment markets with mutual
funds, 401(k)s, and online portfolios. They have
created enormous wealth, driving the American economy forward.
So what gifts will exponentially accelerating technologies bestow on today’s oldest
generations, extending their lives with vitality
while stimulating new economic growth? Most
significantly, we’ll see dramatic evolution in
capabilities to protect and restore the human
body from the negative effects of aging.
For example, recall the fantastical technologies showcased in Star Trek, the popular sci-fi
television series and blockbuster movie franchise. Dr. Leonard McCoy, or Bones as he was
affectionately called, could wave his Tricorder
over an injured crew member and instantly diagnose any medical problem.
Science fiction is about to become science
fact around 2016. The Qualcomm Tricorder
SOME TECHNOLOGIES THAT ARE CHANGING
AGING TODAY
Remote health care services: Independa, an awardwinning tech startup, provides care recipients with
social and community content, and appointment and
medication reminders through flat-screen televisions and
tablets. This cloud-based package of services delivers
remote support for independent caregivers, as well as
staff efficiencies for senior living communities, continuing
care retirement communities, and nursing homes.
Home-based Monitoring: Intel is on a growing list of
companies developing technologies to help people
avoid nursing homes. Called Care Innovations, Intel’s
strategic alliance with GE aims to commercialize
home-based monitoring to improve quality-of-life while
reducing national healthcare costs.
Age management has inspired breakthrough practices to
slow the aging process. Some medical doctors advocate
hormone replacement therapy (HRT) to diminish loss of
muscle mass and prevent chronic fatigue. Many fitness
facilities offer computerized, pneumatic plyometric
machines for low-impact core training, diminishing wearand-tear on joints and tendons.
Digestive health: One of the newest categories in
grocery stores is called “functional foods,” exemplified
by GoodBelly probiotic juice drinks. Containing
Lactobacillus plantarum 299v, GoodBelly’s designer
beverages have been formulated to stimulate optimum
digestive health.
Safer driving: Car manufacturers are designing thirdage vehicles to address late-life mobility aspirations. For
example, the Hyundai Genesis features an advanced
automatic emergency braking system that uses cameras
and radar sensors. If a crash becomes imminent and a
driver does not react, the system deploys, braking the
vehicle from speeds as high as 50 mph.
Financial services: Blazing trails for the financial
services industry, Merrill Lynch recently rolled out iPad
software to help their advisors map retirement plans
based around seven life priorities: health, family, finance,
leisure, home, giving, and work. Merrill’s advisors
can now amplify retirement planning meetings with
discussions focused on “How’s your life?”
CSA JOURNAL 61 / WINTER 2015 / SOCIETY OF CERTIFIED SENIOR ADVISORS / WWW.CSA.US
PAGE 29
XPRIZE is a $10 million international competition
to develop a device that can diagnose patients as well
as or better than a panel of board certified physicians,
with magical capabilities similar to Dr. McCoy’s.8
It follows that we cannot be fully capable
in the field of aging, serving older adults,
without also becoming futurists. And what
is a futurist? Someone who believes in
the need to look forward with optimism.
Imagine a portable, wireless gadget about the size
of an iPhone that monitors and diagnoses your health
status, providing real-time access to critical health
biometrics. This device will help older adults become
more aware of developing health problems faster and
more accurately. The Tricorder will extend the reach of
preventative medicine, further shifting focus from illness and morbidity to disease prevention and wellness.
End of Slash and Burn Medicine
Near the end of his storied career spanning four
decades, ABC network news anchor Peter Jennings
informed viewers through a taped message on World
News Tonight, that he had been diagnosed with lung
cancer and was beginning chemotherapy treatment.
The sad day of this final broadcast was on April 5,
2005. Four months later, on August 7th, substitute
anchor Charles Gibson broke into ABC’s regular programming to announce Jennings’s death.
Jennings died just a few months after the FDA approved a new drug developed by Genentech, the biotechnology firm that has pioneered creation of genetically targeted cancer medications. Tarceva, the drug’s
brand name, attacks non-small cell epidermal growth
factor receptor (EGFR) lung cancer mutations, a variant
that strikes about 15 percent of victims.
By attacking only mutating cancer cells quite effectively, Tarceva has extended the lives of many stage
4 lung cancer patients from several months to several
years. Had Jennings cancer appeared just a year later,
we can only wonder if he might have benefited from
this miracle medication, perhaps enabling him to stay
in the news anchor’s chair for awhile longer.9
PAGE 30
Printing Viruses
Even more amazing, scientists are entering the era
of 3D cancer medications—medicine for one person
capable of killing the complex, idiosyncratic cell mutations that are unique to each individual’s cancer. Autodesk, a world leader in 3D design software such as
AutoCAD, has discovered how to change the process
of drug development through “synthetic biology,” also
known as digital genetic engineering.
This highly advanced technology involves employing a 3D laser printer to produce unique DNA codes.
“Additive printing” technology will someday be able to
construct synthetic, cancer-destroying viruses that can
infect only mutating cells and kill them, leaving multiplying healthy cells alone. The cost to do this could
actually shrink from $1 billion to develop a single traditional pharmaceutical medication, down to almost
nothing to produce an individual’s one-of-a-kind synthetic virus cancer killer.10
Hundreds of other examples demonstrate how
population aging converging with exponentially accelerating technologies is constructively changing aging
right now. These advances crosscut every major field,
from housing to consumer electronics and from nutrition to financial services.
Optimistic, open-minded futurists are alert to these
transformations and are able to recognize the opportunities before others less inclined to believe in the abundance that longer, more robust lives bring to society.
Dr. Theodore Roszak, late author of The Making of
a Counterculture and Longevity Revolution, wisely observed: “Modern society has aged beyond the values
that created it.”11 The time has clearly come for a new
conception of aging, a framework of plenty rather than
the paranoia swirling around with not enough thinking.
Policy makers and political leaders must understand that aging means unparalleled opportunities for
the U.S. economy. People can and will contribute far
longer into late life, focusing their accumulated experiences and wisdom on today’s greatest concerns for
the future. Technologies now being developed to cure
or ameliorate typical diseases of aging, can also become economic exports that grow the nation’s GDP
even beyond Warren Buffet’s optimistic expectations.
Horrific outcomes predicted by generational accountants and economic doomsayers will not come
true as foreseen, partly because the generations over
age fifty shift paradigms, create new industries, abolish
others, and ultimately reshape the social and economic
landscape. The most significant economic transformations in human history are underway today, presaging
a future of abundance beget by population aging. •CSA
Brent Green is president and founder of Brent
Green & Assoc. in Denver, Colorado. Green speaks,
writes, and consults about the intersection of aging
and transformational technologies. He has been
an outspoken and influential advocate for new social and cultural
frameworks concerning the economic value of population aging. He
is author of five books, Including Marketing to Leading-Edge Baby
Boomers and Generation Reinvention. Contact him at 303-7430140, [email protected], or visit www.bgassociates.com.
5 I.O.U.S.A., 2008, directed by Patrick Creadon. Roadside Attractions, limited movie theater release.
6 Center for Economic and Business Research. 2013. Cebr’s World Economic League Table. December 26, 2013. http://www.
telegraaf.nl/incoming/article22168758.ece/BINARY/+Cebr_
World-Economic-League-Table-2013.pdf. Estimate extrapolated from 2028 to 2030 for purposes of comparison.
7 Ibid. Kotlikoff and Burns. The Clash of Generations, p. 23.
■ REFERENCE NOTES
1 Dychtwald, Ken. Cited from several speeches, including presentation to the 2005 White House Conference on Aging.
2 Tyson, Neil deGrasse, as narrated on Cosmos: a Spacetime Odyssey, Episode 11, from series broadcast in the spring of 2014.
3 Kotlikoff, Lawrence and Burns, Scott. 2012. The Clash of Generations: Saving Ourselves, Our Kids, and Our Economy. Cambridge: The MIT Press, p. 3.
4 Mihm, Stephen.“Dr. Doom.” New York Times, August 15, 2008, http://
www.nytimes.com/2008/08/17/magazine/17pessimist-t.html.
8 Qualcomm Tricorder XPRIZE, a $10 million competition to bring healthcare to the palm of your hand. http://www.
qualcommtricorderxprize.org.
9 Erlotinib, the generic name for Genentech’s Tarceva. http://
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Erlotinib.
10 Hessel, Andrew. 2014. 3D Printed Cancer Medicines, IdeaCityConference, June 18, 2014. http://www.ideacityonline.
com/video/3d-printed-cancer-medicines-andrew-hessel.
11 Roszak, Theodore. 2007. “The Ecology of Aging,” Shambhala Sun, November 2007. http://www.shambhalasun.com/index.
php?option=com_content&task=view&id=3147&Itemid=244.
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PAGE 31