July 28, 2014
Some encouraging signs for commodity demand
The main commodity price indexes have pulled back
around 3% since the end of May. These drops do not
reflect a widespread retreat in resource prices, but rather
a correction in natural gas and grain prices, as the latest
developments confirm that the fears of a shortage that had
appeared earlier in the year are no longer justified (graph 1).
Graph 1 – The commodities that had appreciated sharply
at the start of the year have done less well recently
Jan. 2014 = 100
While oil prices were volatile, reflecting the evolving
situations in Iraq and Ukraine, among other things, it is
encouraging to note that the recent uptrend in metal prices
has continued and even accelerated over the last few weeks.
Further signs that China’s economy will avoid an overly
steep economic slowdown and U.S. data signalling that
activity there is accelerating after a very disappointing start
to the year seem to finally have convinced investors to bet
on stronger demand for industrial commodities.
Jan. 2014 = 100
Dow Jones AIG index components
125
125
120
120
115
115
110
110
105
105
100
100
95
95
90
90
85
85
Jan.
2014
Feb.
Energy
March
April
May
Industrial metals
June
July
Precious metals
Grains
Sources: Datastream and Desjardins, Economic Studies
Graph 2 – Winter was even harder on the U.S. economy
than previously estimated
It may seem strange to see metal prices climbing at a time
when all the experts are downgrading their global growth
forecasts for 2014. However, weaker growth this year stems
primarily from the retreat by U.S. activity in the first quarter
(graph 2), a phenomenon that will not affect demand for
ressources as of now. In this context, we continue to think
that commodities will do well in the coming quarters.
Quarterly ann. var. in %
François Dupuis
Vice-President and Chief Economist
Quarterly ann. var. in %
Real GDP
5
5
4
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
0
-1
-1
-2
-2
-3
-3
2011
2012
2013
2014
Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis and Desjardins, Economic Studies
Mathieu D’Anjou, CFA
Senior Economist
Contents
Energy................................................................................2
Base metals.......................................................................4
Precious metals.................................................................6
Other commodities.............................................................7
Tables.................................................................................8
François Dupuis
Vice-President and Chief Economist
Mathieu D’Anjou
Senior Economist
Jimmy Jean
Senior Economist 514-281-2336 or 1 866 866-7000, ext. 2336
E-mail: [email protected]
Hendrix Vachon
Senior Economist
Note to readers: The letters k, M and B are used in texts and tables to refer to thousands, millions and billions respectively.
I mportant: This document is based on public information and may under no circumstances be used or construed as a commitment by Desjardins Group. While the information provided has been determined on the basis of data obtained from sources that
are deemed to be reliable, Desjardins Group in no way warrants that the information is accurate or complete. The document is provided solely for information purposes and does not constitute an offer or solicitation for purchase or sale. Desjardins Group
takes no responsibility for the consequences of any decision whatsoever made on the basis of the data contained herein and does not hereby undertake to provide any advice, notably in the area of investment services. The data on prices or margins are
provided for information purposes and may be modified at any time, based on such factors as market conditions. The past performances and projections expressed herein are no guarantee of future performance. The opinions and forecasts contained herein
are, unless otherwise indicated, those of the document’s authors and do not represent the opinions of any other person or the official position of Desjardins Group. Copyright © 2014, Desjardins Group. All rights reserved.
July 2014
Commodity Trends
www.desjardins.com/economics
Energy
Geopolitical strains have a limited effect
Oil
•
•
•
•
Graph 3 – Oil prices
After showing surprising resilience early in the year, oil
prices jumped in mid-June when the situation in Iraq took
a worrisome turn. WTI (West Texas Intermediate) prices
reached US$108 per barrel, while Brent prices climbed
above US$115 per barrel, their highest point since last
September (graph 3). Unlike what we could have feared, this
spike did not last, and oil prices have descended again in
recent weeks, going just under where they were in late May,
despite new concerning developments in Ukraine and the
Middle East. Beyond these fluctuations, oil prices remain
fairly high. In Canada, Western Canada Select prices are
holding near US$80 per barrel, high enough to stimulate
investment in the oil sector.
The sudden takeover of a large part of Iraq by the Sunni
insurgent group ISIS sent shock waves into the global oil
market in mid-June. The insurgents’ progress, however, took
place in Sunni regions that were hostile to Prime Minister
Nouri al‑Maliki’s Shiite government. It quickly became
apparent that most oil plants, concentrated in the northern
area under Kurdish control and, more importantly, in the
southern, Shiite region of Iraq, were in no immediate danger.
All the same, ongoing heightened instability in Iraq will have
some impact on oil production, and the U.S. Department
of Energy has lowered Iraq’s crude production forecast
for 2014 and 2015 by 0.3 MMb/d (million barrels per day).
The problems in Iraq come on top of the ever-present
conflicts in Syria, Libya and Nigeria. What’s more,
negotiations over Iran’s nuclear program are stumbling
and it is unlikely that Iranian oil will return to the market
anytime soon. In this context, total production by OPEC
(Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries) has
dropped in recent quarters. This decrease would have been
twice as big if not for Saudi Arabia, which took production
up to nearly 10 MMb/d in June (graph 4). As for Russia, a
decline in oil exports remains highly unlikely, despite rising
tensions following the Malaysia Airlines tragedy.
Fortunately, the troubles in several OPEC countries are
occurring when demand for their oil has fallen, given the
surge in North American production. In its new mediumterm forecast, the International Energy Agency (IEA) has
again upgraded its expectations for oil production from
non-OPEC nations. Despite stronger forecasted demand,
it estimates that practically stable OPEC production,
at around 30–31 MMb/d, will be enough to meet global
demand from now until 2019 (graph 5). A sentence in the
report also merits highlighting: “It is hard to overstate the
degree to which the North American supply boom has,
since its onset, consistently defied expectations.”
US$/barrel
US$/barrel
130
130
120
120
110
110
100
100
90
90
80
80
70
70
2011
2012
2013
WTI*
2014
Brent
* West Texas Intermediate.
Sources: Datastream and Desjardins, Economic Studies
Graph 4 – Saudi Arabia partially offsets the drop in output
of other OPEC* nations
Millions of barrels/day
Millions of barrels/day
Crude oil output
10.5
24
10.0
23
9.5
22
9.0
21
8.5
20
8.0
7.5
19
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Saudi Arabia
2012
2013
Rest of OPEC
OPEC: Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries; * Excluding Indonesia but including Iraq.
Sources: Bloomberg and Desjardins, Economic Studies
Graph 5 – Increased output from non-OPEC* nations will be
enough to meet increased demand for oil between now and 2019
Millions of barrels/day
Millions of barrels/day
Oil output
70
41
International Energy Agency’s forecast
68
39
66
37
64
35
62
33
60
31
58
29
27
56
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
Output from non-OPEC nations (left)
Required output from OPEC to meet global demand (right)
OPEC: Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries; * Excluding Indonesia but including Iraq.
Sources: International Energy Agency and Desjardins, Economic Studies
2
2014
2019
Commodity Trends
July 2014
www.desjardins.com/economics
Gasoline
•
After a difficult start to the year, North American drivers are
finally getting a small break. Spring ended on a worrisome
note, when the surge in crude prices following the conflict in
Iraq took average regular gas prices to US$3.70 per gallon
in the United States and over C$1.40 per litre in Canada.
The subsequent drop in crude prices and more favourable
seasonal factors, as refinery margins fell after increasing
last spring, have since brought gas to around US$3.55 per
gallon in the United States and C$1.33 per litre in Canada.
Nothing points to any considerable changes in gas prices
over the coming weeks.
Graph 6 – Slight break for drivers
US$/gallon
139
3.8
136
3.7
133
3.6
130
3.5
127
3.4
124
3.3
121
3.2
118
3.1
115
April
July
Natural gas
After remaining high throughout the first half of 2014,
North American natural gas prices slid dramatically over the
last few weeks, falling from US$4.70 per MMBTU (Million
British Thermal Unit) in mid-June to around US$3.80 per
MMBTU, more than 10% lower than in late 2013 (graph 7).
Prices are even lower in the eastern United States, where the
surge in unconventional production continues. The recent
drop mainly reflects soft gas demand, as the unusually cool
summer and gas prices that were not as competitive as coal
prices limit electricity producers’ use of gas. This is causing
natural gas inventories to climb even faster than expected
(graph 8) after their spectacular retreat during the especially
cold 2013–2014 winter.
Forecasts: Despite the many conflicts in OPEC nations,
the global oil market remains well supplied. In this context,
the risks of a surge in crude prices remain relatively low. All
the same, the enduring geopolitical strains will offer some
support, which should help WTI prices hold near US$100
per barrel. The faster-than-expected replenishment of
natural gas inventories confirms that it is difficult for
gas price to stay well above US$4 per MMBTU. We are
trimming our forecast slightly for average natural gas
prices this year, to US$4.35 per MMBTU, and are keeping
our 2015 target at US$4.
142
3.9
Jan.
2012
•
¢/litre
Average price of regular gas
4.0
Oct.
Jan.
2013
April
United States (left)
July
Oct.
Jan.
2014
April
July
Canada (right)
Sources: Datastream, Natural Resources Canada and Desjardins, Economic Studies
Graph 7 – Natural gas prices
US$/MMBTU*
US$/MMBTU*
14
14
Natural gas
200-day average
12
12
10
10
8
8
6
6
4
4
2
2
0
0
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
* Million British Thermal Unit.
Sources: Datastream and Desjardins, Economic Studies
Graph 8 – Natural gas inventories are climbing rapidly toward
more normal levels
In billions of cubic feet
In billions of cubic feet
4,500
4,500
4,000
4,000
Maximum*
3,500
3,500
3,000
3,000
2,500
2,500
Minimum*
2,000
2,000
1,500
1,500
1,000
1,000
Average*
Inventory
500
500
Jan.
2013
April
July
Oct.
Jan.
2014
* From 2009 to 2013.
Sources: Energy Information Administration and Desjardins, Economic Studies
3
April
July
July 2014
Commodity Trends
www.desjardins.com/economics
Base metals
Widespread climb in prices
The recent uptrend for industrial metal prices continued over
the last few weeks, bringing the London Metal Exchange
Index (LME) for base metals to around 3,300, about 4%
higher than it was at the end of 2013 (graph 9).
The initial rebound in industrial metal prices chiefly
reflected Indonesia’s decision to stop exporting unprocessed
ore. More recently, prices are being supported by the hope
that demand for metals will accelerate, as the economic
forecasts seem more positive for the major economies.
China’s economy, whose importance to the base metal
sector cannot be overstated, accelerated in the second
quarter of 2014 (graph 10) and rising purchasing manager
indexes augurs well for the future. The much stronger
U.S. economy in the coming quarters should also lead to
higher demand for metals. These more favourable outlooks
seem to be attracting investors once more; according to
Bloomberg, demand for industrial metal exchange-traded
funds has not been this strong since 2009.
Graph 9 – Industrial metal prices seem to be starting an uptrend
Index
Index
5,000
5,000
4,500
4,500
4,000
4,000
3,500
3,500
3,000
3,000
2,500
2,500
2,000
2,000
1,500
1,500
2008
2009
2010
2011
LMEX*
2012
2013
2014
200-day average
* London Metal Exchange base metal price index.
Sources: Datastream and Desjardins, Economic Studies
Graph 10 – China’s economy accelerated in Q2 2014
In %
In %
Real GDP
Aluminum
12
•
11
11
10
10
9
9
8
8
7
7
6
6
Aluminum is one of the better-performing commodities
right now. Prices for this metal have grown about 10%
since the end of May, nearing US$2,000 per tonne, a peak
since February 2013 (graph 11). Several major alumunium
producers have decreased their production capacity over
the last few quarters. As the considerable aluminum stocks
remain difficult to access, an acceleration of the already
relatively lively demand could keep upside pressure on
prices for this metal. In the past, aluminum plant closures
were more than offset by the spectacular increase in China’s
production capacities. Indonesia’s decision to halt bauxite
exports and increased efforts to control pollution could now
slow expansion in Chinese production, however.
Annual variation
Quaterly annualized variation
5
5
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Sources: National Bureau of Statistics of China and Desjardins, Economic Studies
Copper
•
12
Graph 11 – Aluminum prices and inventories
Copper prices ticked up over the last few weeks, moving just
above US$7,000 per tonne. However, they remain nearly
5% lower than where they were at the start of 2014, despite
the dramatic decrease in copper inventories recorded by
the LME (graph 12 on page 5). Uncertainty over the future
of China’s sizable inventories held for financial reasons
continues to hurt copper prices and could have played a
role in the recent slide in Chinese imports of this metal. In
terms of supply and demand, the most recent news bodes
well for copper price increases, as the International Copper
Study Group estimates that global copper consumption
substantially outpaced production in the first four months
of 2014.
US$/tonne
In thousands of tonnes
3,400
6,000
3,200
5,500
3,000
5,000
2,800
4,500
2,600
4,000
2,400
3,500
2,200
3,000
2,000
2,500
1,800
2,000
1,600
1,500
1,400
1,000
1,200
500
2008
2009
2010
Prices (left)
Sources: Datastream and Desjardins, Economic Studies
4
2011
2012
2013
Inventories (right)
2014
Commodity Trends
July 2014
www.desjardins.com/economics
Nickel
•
Nickel prices have not risen much in recent weeks, instead
staying near US$19,000 per tonne (graph 13). It is not
surprising to see some consolidation in nickel prices,
given their marked increase at the start of the year. This
metal is up by more than 35% since the start of 2014. This
performance may seem surprising, since nickel stocks
recorded by the LME have jumped nearly 20% since the
beginning of the year. However, most analysts predict that
Indonesia’s suspension of ore exports will take the global
market into a deficit situation over the coming quarters.
Graph 12 – Copper prices and inventories
US$/tonne
In thousands of tonnes
700
650
600
550
500
450
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
11,000
10,000
9,000
8,000
7,000
6,000
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
2008
Zinc
•
Zinc prices have fared even better than aluminum recently,
gaining nearly 15% since late May and nearing US$2,400
per tonne, their highest point since summer 2011. They
also have risen more than 15% since the start of 2014,
while inventories of this metal as recorded by the LME
have dropped by around 30% (graph 14). Inventories could
continue to slide over the coming quarters.
2009
2010
2011
Prices (left)
2012
2013
Sources: Datastream and Desjardins, Economic Studies
Graph 13 – Nickel prices and inventories
US$/tonne
Steel
•
After consolidating for a while, steel prices recorded by the
LME resumed their uptrend, hitting US$416 per tonne, a
peak since spring 2012. These gains seem to largely reflect
improved global economic outlooks, especially for China.
Forecasts: Industrial metal prices should continue to
trend up in the coming quarters, reflecting the acceleration
of economic activity in several major economies. The
fundamental conditions, however, do not justify a price
explosion, as risks of a metal shortage remain low for the
next few years. All the same, surging speculative demand
could lead to a faster price climb than we currently
anticipate.
2014
Inventories (right)
In thousands of tonnes
35,000
350
30,000
300
250
25,000
200
20,000
150
15,000
100
10,000
50
5,000
0
2008
2009
2010
2011
Prices (left)
2012
2013
2014
Inventories (right)
Sources: Datastream and Desjardins, Economic Studies
Graph 14 – Zinc prices and inventories
US$/tonne
In thousands of tonnes
3,000
1,400
2,750
1,200
2,500
1,000
2,250
800
2,000
600
1,750
400
1,500
200
1,250
0
1,000
2008
2009
2010
2011
Prices (left)
2012
2013
Inventories (right)
Sources: Datastream and Desjardins, Economic Studies
5
2014
July 2014
Commodity Trends
www.desjardins.com/economics
Precious metals
International tensions have not helped gold much
Gold prices have shown no clear trend in recent months,
despite heightened international tensions. Their performance
in the first half of 2014 remains impressive all the same,
though the coming months could be more difficult.
Graph 15 – Gold and silver prices
US$/ounce
US$/ounce
2,000
50
45
1,800
40
Gold and silver
1,600
•
1,400
30
1,200
25
After falling to below US$1,250 per ounce in early June,
gold prices resumed their uptrend, boosted by the conflict in
Iraq, among other things, to end the first half of the year just
above US$1,300 per ounce. Increased tension in Ukraine
and Israel even brought prices above US$1,330 per ounce in
the first weeks of July, but these gains were not sustainable
and gold prices moved back toward US$1,300 per ounce
(graph 15). Statistics showing that China’s demand for gold
retreated 19% in the first half of 2014 may have limit gains
of the yellow metal. Contrary to what many predicted, gold
prices did have a good first half of 2014 and are still up
around 9% from where they were at the end of 2013. In our
opinion, this good performance is supported, among other
things, by the surprise retreat in bond yields (graph 16),
which could reverse in the second half of the year, as the
Federal Reserve plans to end its third quantitative easing
program after its October meeting. The recent climb in
precious metal prices was more pronounced for silver,
which is back near US$21 per ounce.
Platinum and palladium
•
Platinum prices have advanced about 2% since the end
of May and are now posting gains of nearly 10% since the
start of 2014. Palladium prices are still rising after their
considerable gains during the first months of the year. The
major strikes in South Africa, which limited output of these
two metals, have recently ended, but strong demand from
the automotive industry should continue to support platinum
and palladium prices.
Forecasts: In the short term, gold prices could still
benefit from the many geopolitical risks. However, the
accelerating global economy and expected climb in bond
yields lead us to expect that the prices of the yellow metal
will pull back in the coming quarters.
35
20
1,000
15
800
10
600
5
2008
2009
2010
2011
Gold (left)
2012
2013
2014
Silver (right)
Sources: Datastream and Desjardins, Economic Studies
Graph 16 – The slide in bond yields favoured gold
in the first half of 2014
Index
Index
1,400
3.1
1,375
3.0
1,350
2.9
1,325
2.8
1,300
2.7
1,275
2.6
1,250
2.5
1,225
2.4
1,200
Jan.
2014
Feb.
March
Price of gold (left)
April
May
June
July
Yields on U.S. 10-year bonds (right)
Sources: Datastream and Desjardins, Economic Studies
Graph 17 – Platinum and palladium prices
US$/ounce
US$/ounce
2,400
900
2,200
800
2,000
700
1,800
600
1,600
500
1,400
400
1,200
300
1,000
200
800
600
100
2008
2009
2010
2011
Platinum (left)
Sources: Datastream and Desjardins, Economic Studies
6
2012
2013
Palladium (right)
2014
Commodity Trends
July 2014
www.desjardins.com/economics
Other commodities
A confirmed bounty of grains
Forest products
•
As a whole, forest product prices have not moved much
in the last few weeks. North American reference prices
for pulp and paper have been practically the same since
the end of April. Lumber prices fell close to US$370 per
thousand board feet in mid-June, but have recently climbed
to just above US$380. Note that the U.S. housing market
seems to be doing better after a worrisome slide at the start
of the year. It isn’t perfect, as June’s housing starts were
disappointing, but accelerating home sales (graph 18)
and rising homebuilder confidence allow us to
expect activity to pick up somewhat in the residential
construction sector.
Graph 18 – The U.S. housing market is doing better
In thousands
In thousands
Annualized
500
5,500
475
5,250
450
425
5,000
400
4,750
375
350
4,500
325
300
4,250
275
250
4,000
2011
2012
2013
2014
Sales of new homes – Single-family dwellings (left)
Sales of existing homes – Single-family and multi-unit dwellings (right)
AGRICULTURAL COMMODITIES
•
•
•
The price correction for major grains, which began this
spring, has continued over recent weeks (graph 19) as the
weather seems favourable for harvests, especially in the
United States. If the very harsh winter had little effect on
harvests, ongoing good weather this summer could lead to
a substantial rise in inventories (graph 20).
U.S. weather is particularly important for corn, as
U.S. farmers are responsible for about 35% of the world’s
production of this grain. The U.S. Department of Agriculture
(USDA) recently estimated that 76% of corn plants were in
good or excellent condition, the highest percentage for this
time of the year since 2004. The high yield by U.S. fields
should therefore make up for the fact that the area seeded
with corn is smaller than last year. Corn prices have dropped
around 20% since mid-May, hitting US$3.58 per bushel, its
lowest point since summer 2010.
The very favourable conditions for harvests are also
dragging down wheat and soybean prices, which have
fallen about 16% since the end of May. Note that the
weather worldwide has also been generally good, including
in Europe. Unfortunately, Canada is one exception, as
torrential rains out west have negatively impacted harvests.
For soybeans, the USDA estimates that the conditions for
U.S. crop are the best in the last 20 years, in addition to
the more than 10% increase in the area used for this crop.
Everything suggests that grain prices will remain weak over
the coming months, with other drops a possibility if the
weather stays favourable.
Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, National Association of Realtors and Desjardins, Economic Studies
Graph 19 – Grain prices
US$/bushel
US$/bushel
19
14
17
12
15
10
13
8
6
11
4
9
2
7
2008
2009
2010
Wheat (left)
2011
2012
Corn (left)
2013
2014
Soybeans (right)
Sources: Datastream and Desjardins, Economic Studies
Graph 20 – Global grain inventories will continue to climb in 2014
In days of consumption
In days of consumption
150
150
130
130
110
110
90
90
70
70
50
50
30
30
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
Wheat
Corn
Sources: U.S. Department of Agriculture and Desjardins, Economic Studies
7
Soybeans
July 2014
Commodity Trends
www.desjardins.com/economics
Table 1
Commodities
Percentage return since
Spot price
July 25
1 month
1 year
High
Average
Low
Index
1
2
Reuter-CRB (CCI )
1
Reuters/Jefferies CRB
3
Dow Jones AIG
Bank of Canada
526.2
298.3
129.3
658.8
-4.8
-4.6
-5.4
-3.6
-7.2
-4.0
-6.3
-1.8
2.1
5.6
1.8
4.5
2.3
4.0
1.2
-1.4
569.6
312.9
138.7
683.4
531.3
292.9
130.2
646.4
502.4
272.3
122.0
582.0
Energy
Brent oil (US$/barrel)
WTI 4 oil (US$/barrel)
Gasoline (US$/gallon)
Natural gas (US$/MMBTU5)
106.4
102.1
3.59
3.79
-6.6
-4.6
-3.0
-17.1
-2.7
1.2
-2.4
-19.4
-1.7
5.6
8.0
-27.0
-1.7
-3.2
-2.4
3.0
117.3
110.6
3.71
7.92
109.5
101.3
3.49
4.30
103.8
91.4
3.19
3.27
Base metals
6
LMEX
Aluminium (US$/tonne)
Copper (US$/tonne)
Nickel (US$/tonne)
Zinc (US$/tonne)
Steel (US$/tonne)
3,299
1,980
7,137
19,143
2,393
416.5
3.9
6.1
2.9
3.5
10.0
6.8
5.9
9.1
5.2
4.0
16.6
7.6
6.2
15.2
-1.0
32.6
19.3
15.7
8.8
11.3
2.0
35.8
29.8
226.7
3,316
2,025
7,406
20,955
2,393
416.5
3,105
1,778
7,035
15,630
1,999
302.4
2,920
1,634
6,439
13,216
1,798
122.8
Precious metals
Gold (US$/ounce)
Silver (US$/ounce)
Platinum (US$/ounce)
Palladium (US$/ounce)
1,299
20.5
1,473
876.0
-1.5
-1.5
1.0
6.1
-0.2
4.1
3.9
8.8
2.5
1.3
2.1
17.6
-2.1
2.7
2.1
17.9
1,418
24.7
1,546
886.0
1,298
20.6
1,438
763.0
1,196
18.8
1,321
689.0
Other commodities
Lumber (US$/tbf 7)
Pulp (US$/tonne)
Newsprint (US$/tonne)
Wheat (US$/bushel)
Corn (US$/bushel)
Soybean (US$/bushel)
384.0
1,030
583.0
5.21
3.58
12.62
2.9
0.0
0.0
-12.2
-17.4
-11.4
5.2
0.0
0.0
-20.5
-26.7
-15.7
-5.0
2.7
-0.3
0.8
-14.3
-2.2
11.0
8.8
-1.2
-11.6
-41.5
-7.9
404.0
1,030
590.7
7.42
6.31
15.29
379.0
994.1
585.7
6.00
4.54
13.71
346.0
946.2
583.0
4.98
3.57
12.41
1
Commodity Research Bureau; 2 Continuous Commodity Index;
London Metal Exchange Index; 7 Thousand of board feet.
Note: Currency table base on previous day closure.
3
3 months 6 months
Last 52 weeks
American International Group;
4
West Texas Intermediate;
5
Million British Thermal Unit;
6
Table 2
Commodities prices: history and forecasts
2012
2013
2014f
2015f
94
98
Target: 100
(range: 95 to 105)
Target: 102
(range: 92 to 112)
2.76
3.73
Target: 4.35
(range: 4.15 to 4.60)
Target: 4.00
(range: 3.25 to 5.00)
Gold (US$/ounce)
1,669
1,411
Target: 1,275
(range: 1,235 to 1,325)
Target: 1,150
(range: 1000 to 1,250)
LMEX*** index—base metals
3,416
3,183
Target: 3,225
(range: 3,000 to 3,350)
Target: 3,800
(range: 3,400 to 4,200)
Annual average
WTI* oil (US$/barrel)
Natural gas Henry Hub
(US$/MMBTU**)
f: forecasts; * West Texas Intermediate; ** Million British Thermal Unit; *** London Metal Exchange Index.
Sources: Datastream and Desjardins, Economic Studies
8