FEWS NET
FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS NETWORK
Global Weather Hazards Summary
May 12 - 18, 2017
Recent seasonal rainfall helps partially alleviate abnormal dryness in East Africa
Africa Weather Hazards
Flooding
Abnormal Dryness
Drought
Severe Drought
Tropical Cyclone
Potential Locust Outbreak
Heavy Snow
Abnormal Cold
Abnormal Heat
Seasonally Dry
1. Despite rainfall during
5
early March, significant
long-term moisture deficits
remain throughout central and
eastern Madagascar due to very poor rains earlier in
the season.
2. Inconsistent rainfall since late December have led to
moisture deficits and deteriorating ground conditions
across many parts of western Angola.
3
6
4
2
3. Below-average rainfall accumulations since late February
have resulted in moisture deficits, which have already
negatively impacted agricultural and pastoral activities
in many parts of southern South Sudan, Kenya, Ethiopia,
southern Somalia, and northern Tanzania.
4. The onset of heavy rains last week resulted in flooding in parts
of Kenya. Continued rains may trigger additional floods and
elevate river levels.
1
Source: FEWS NET/NOAA
5. Several consecutive weeks of below-average rainfall has led to early
season moisture deficits in parts of Ghana.
6. Shabelle river levels have been rising since late April, creating a high risk for flooding along the middle and lower portions of
the basin. Additional seasonal rainfall next week is expected to sustain the risk.
FEWS NET is a USAID-funded activity. The content of this report does not necessarily reflect the view of the United States Agency for
International Development or the United States Government.The FEWS NET weather hazards process and products include participation by
FEWS NET field and home offices, NOAA-CPC, USGS, USDA, NASA, and a number of other national and regional organizations in the countries
concerned. Questions or comments about this product may be directed to [email protected], [email protected], or 1-301-683-3424.
Torrential rains and floods continue in Kenya.
Weather Hazards Summary
7-Day Satellite Estimated Rainfall
May(mm)
12 Valid: May 3 – May 9, 2017
7-Day Satellite Estimated Rainfall (mm)
Valid: May 3 – May 9, 2017
18, 2017
Torrential
rains
andinfloods
continuelate
in Kenya.
During the first
week
May, enhanced,
season precipitation
Africa
Overview
continued
across
much the horn, with the heaviest rainfall
During
the first week
in May,over
enhanced,
season precipitation
accumulations
received
severallateregions
of Kenya.
Figure 1: RFE2 Satellite-Estimated Rainfall (mm)
Rains
floods
continue
in Kenya
continued
across
muchrainfall
the horn,
with the
heaviest
rainfall
According
to and
satellite
estimates,
weekly
amounts
in
Valid: May 3 - May 9, 2017
During
the
first week
May,
above-average
accumulations
received
overin several
regions
of precipitation
Kenya.
excess
of
100mm
were
registered
in the
central and
eastern
continued
across
much of
The
Horn,
with
thedamages
heaviest rainfall
According
to Kenya
satellite
rainfall
estimates,
weekly
amounts
in
provinces
of
(Figure
1),
with
flooding,
to
excess of
100mm
were inregistered
in the central
andAccording
eastern
totals
recorded
several displaced
regions
of populations,
Kenya.
infrastructure,
livestock
losses,
and to
provinces
of Kenya
1),weekly
withhardest
flooding,
damages
to
fatalities satellite
reported
since(Figure
late April.
The
hitin regions
rainfall
estimates,
amounts
excess
ofwere
100mm
infrastructure,
livestock
losses,
displaced
populations,
and
counties
surrounding
Mount
Kenya,
as
well
as,
coastal
areas
were registered in the central and eastern provinces of Kenya
fatalities
reported
since
late last
April.damages
The hardest
hit regions
near
Mombasa
during
the
week.
Elsewhere,
lesserwere
but
(Figure
1),
with flooding,
to infrastructure,
livestock
countieslosses,
surrounding
Mount
Kenya,
as
well
as,
coastal
areas
favorably
distributed
(10-75mm)
rains
were
recorded
throughout
displaced populations, and fatalities reported since
near Mombasa
the
last and
week.
Elsewhere,
lesser
but
Somalia
Uganda,during
Sudan
Ethiopia
a trend
late
April. South
The hardest
hit regions
werecontinuing
counties surrounding
favorably
distributed
were in
recorded
throughout
of increased
rainfall (10-75mm)
and groundrains
moisture
East Africa
since
Mount Kenya, as well as coastal areas near Mombasa during
Somalia
late April.Uganda, South Sudan and Ethiopia continuing a trend
the last
week.and
Elsewhere,
(10-75mm)
rainsAfrica
were since
recorded
of increased
rainfall
ground light
moisture
in East
throughout
Somalia
Uganda,
South
Sudan
and
Ethiopia
late
April.
Latest analysis of percent of normal rainfall since early April
a trend
increased
rainfall
and ground
moisture
suggestscontinuing
a weakening
ofofthe
persistent
moisture
deficits
that in
East Africa
since
late April.
Latest
analysis
ofimpacted
percent
of
normal
earlySouth
April
have negatively
much
of rainfall
Kenya, since
Uganda,
suggests
a weakening
of the for
persistent
deficitsWhile
that
Sudan, Ethiopia,
and Somalia
much ofmoisture
the season.
have
negatively
impacted
much
of dry,
Kenya,
Uganda,
East Africa
stillanalysis
remains
pockets
ofofneutral
to
Latest
ofpredominantly
rainfall
suggests
a weakening
theSouth
moisture
Sudan, Ethiopia,
and
Somalia
for much
of parts
the
season.
above-average
conditions,
particularly
over
of
KenyaWhile
and
deficits that
have
negatively
impacted
much
of Kenya,
Uganda,
East Africa
stillSudan,
remains
predominantly
dry,
pockets
neutral
to
Ethiopia,
have
emerged
due and
to the
recent
in
rainfall
South
Ethiopia,
Somalia
for uptick
muchofof
the
season.
above-average
conditions,
particularly
over
parts
of
Kenya
and
activity
(Figure
2).
Although
this
latest
increase
in
rainfall
While East Africa still remains predominantly dry, recent rainfall
Ethiopia,
have
emerged
to thewith
recent
uptick
in rainfall
activity over
East
Africa isdue
respect
to developing
has alleviated
some oftoo
thelate
dryness, particularly
in parts of Kenya
activity
(Figure
Although
this moisture
latest increase
in rainfall
crops, the
late 2).
season
increase
is expected
to
and Ethiopia
(Figure
2). This
late-season
moisture is
activity
over
Eastavailability
Africa
is too
respectincrease
to
developing
replenish
water
and late
helpwith
to improve
conditions
in
expected
replenish
water availability
help to improve
crops,
late to
season
increase
moisture and
is expected
to
pastoralthe
regions.
Figure 1: NOAA/CPC
in pastoraland
regions.
replenishconditions
water availability
help to improve conditions in
pastoral
regions. outlook period, a continuation of average to
For
the upcoming
NOAA/CPC
Figure
1: NOAA/CPC
30-Day
Satellite-Estimated Percent of NormalSource:
Rainfall
(%)
Next week,
a continuation
of average
to above-average
above-average
rainfall
is forecast
during early
May whichrainfall
is
Valid: April 10 – May 9, 2017
forecast.
However,
additional
rainfall
overof
saturated
regions
For the is
upcoming
outlook
period,
a continuation
average
to
expected
to
continue
to help
alleviate
seasonal
dryness
over
30-Day
Satellite-Estimated
Percent
of Normal
(%)
Figure
2: ARC2
30-Day Satellite-Estimated
Rainfall
Anomaly Rainfall
(mm)
above-average
is forecast
during
early
Mayrains
which
is
Kenya, Somalia
Ethiopia.
However,
additional
over
in Kenyarainfall
isand
expected
to sustain
the risk
of flooding.
Water
levels
Valid: April 10 – May 9, 2017
Valid:
April
10
May
9,
2017
expected
to continue
to help
alleviate
seasonal
dryness
over
several saturated
regions
in
Kenya
sustain
thealso
along
the Shabelle
river
basinisinexpected
southern to
Somalia
have
Kenya,
Somalia
and
Ethiopia.
However,
additional
rains
over
risk of flooding
and
other
adverse
ground
impact
during
the
been on the rise.
several of
saturated
regions
in Kenya
is expected
sustain
middle
May. Water
levels
along the
Shabelle toriver
basinthe
in
risk of flooding
and
other
adverse
ground
impact during the
southern
Somalia
have
also
been
on
the
rise.
Dryness continues in parts of Liberia, Guinea and Ghana
middle of May. Water levels along the Shabelle river basin in
week,have
the also
highest
rainfall
in West Africa
southernLast
Somalia
been
on theaccumulations
rise.
were recorded over Nigeria, according to satellite estimates.
However, lighter rainfall totals were again registered over
Dryness continues in parts of Liberia, Guinea and Ghana.
parts of Guinea, Liberia and Ghana, resulting in strengthening
moisture deficits
(25-80%
normal) for
many local
areas
(Figure
Dryness
ofofLiberia,
andrains
Ghana.
During thecontinues
last week,ina parts
northward
push ofGuinea
monsoon
was
2).
In
Ghana,
rains
have
been
below-average
since
February
observed throughout West Africa, with the highest rainfalland
remote
vegetation
health
indices
depicted
declining
ground
During the
last received
week,
a northward
push
monsoon
rains was
accumulations
over
much
of of
Nigeria
according
to
observedconditions.
throughout
WestHowever,
Africa, lighter
with the
highest
satellite
rainfall
estimates.
rainfall
totalsrainfall
were
accumulations
over ofmuch
of Nigeria
to
again
registeredreceived
over parts
Guinea,
Liberia according
and Ghana,
satellite
rainfall
estimates.
However,
lighter
totals
resultingDuring
in strengthening
moisture
(25-80
percent
of
the
next week,
increaseddeficits
rainfallrainfall
is forecast
overwere
Guinea,
again registered
over
of (Figure
Guinea,
Liberia
Ghana,
normal)
for many
local
areas
2).
In and
Ghana,
the
Sierra
Leone,
andparts
Liberia,
which
is expected
to
help
alleviate
resultingearly
inof strengthening
deficits
(25-80
percentand
of
frequency
rains
beenmoisture
below-average
February
seasonhas
dryness.
However,
light tosince
locally
moderate
rainfall
normal) vegetation
for
many
local
areas
(Figure
2).
In
Ghana,
the
remote
health
indices
also
have
depicted
a
declining
amounts (5-25mm) remain forecast for Ghana, Cote d’Ivoire
frequency
of rains has
been
below-average since February and
in
groundand
conditions
to early
southerndue
Burkina
Faso.season rainfall shortages
remote vegetation health indices also have depicted a declining
in ground
dueincreased
to early season
shortages
During
theconditions
next week,
rainfallrainfall
amounts
are forecast
over much of Guinea, Sierra Leone, and Liberia which is
During thetonext
increased
rainfall
amountsHowever,
are forecast
expected
help week,
alleviate
early season
dryness.
light
over
much
of Guinea,
Sierra
Leone,
and Liberia
is
to locally
moderate
rainfall
amounts
(5-25mm)
remainwhich
forecast
expected
helpd’Ivoire
alleviate
early
season
dryness.
However, light
for Ghana,toCote
and
southern
Burkina
Faso.
Figure 2:
to locally moderate rainfall amounts (5-25mm) remain forecast
for Ghana, Cote d’Ivoire and southern Burkina Faso.
Figure 2:
NOAA/CPC
Source: NOAA/CPC
NOAA/CPC
Note: The hazards outlook map on page 1 is based on current weather/climate information and short and medium range weather forecasts (up to 1
week). It assesses their potential impact on crop and pasture conditions. Shaded polygons are added in areas where anomalous conditions have
been
The
boundaries
these
only weather/climate
approximate at information
this continental
scale.
This
product
does
not reflect
long(up
range
Note: observed.
The hazards
outlook
map onofpage
1 ispolygons
based onare
current
and short
and
medium
range
weather
forecasts
to 1
seasonal
climate forecasts
or indicate
current
or projected
foodconditions.
security conditions.
week).
It
assesses
their
potential
impact
on
crop
and
pasture
Shaded
polygons
are
added
in
areas
where
anomalous
conditions
have
Famine Early Warning Systems Network
2
been observed. The boundaries of these polygons are only approximate at this continental scale. This product does not reflect long range
Questions orclimate
comments
about this
may
be directed
to [email protected]
or 1-301-683-3424.
seasonal
forecasts
orproduct
indicate
current
or projected
food security conditions.
Questions or comments about this product may be directed to [email protected] or 1-301-683-3424.
Weather Hazards Summary
Central Asia Weather Hazards
Temperatures
Above-normal temperatures persisted across most of
Central Asia from April 30 to May 6 with the largest
anomalies (3-7°C) across western parts of Kazakhstan,
Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, and Afghanistan. The hottest
temperatures (above 35°C) were observed across southern
Turkmenistan. Next week, the GFS model indicates that
above-normal temperatures are likely to persist through
mid-May. Abnormal heat hazard is posted for areas where
maximum temperatures are forecast to exceed 35°C and
average more than 6°C above normal.
May 12 - 18, 2017
Flooding
Abnormal Dryness
Drought
Severe Drought
Tropical Cyclone
Potential Locust Outbreak
Heavy Snow
Abnormal Cold
Abnormal Heat
Precipitation
Scattered showers (less than 25mm) fell across eastern
Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and northeast Afghanistan from
Source: FEWS NET/NOAA
April 30 to May 6. Next week, the GFS model indicates that
scattered showers will continue throughout the region with local amounts exceeding 25mm across the higher elevations of Afghanistan.
Rainfall typically begins to decrease across Afghanistan by mid-May.
The recent warmth has resulted in rapid snow melt across Afghanistan during the past month. Since nearly all basins are free of snow,
the risk of flooding is reduced compared to previous weeks.
Central America and the Caribbean Weather Hazards
1) Since March, below-average rainfall has
resulted in unseasonable dryness, signaling
a delay in Primera rainfall. Degraded ground
conditions have been reported across several
departments in Guatemala, El Salvador, and
western Honduras.
2) Adrian, a developing tropical storm in the East
2
Pacific, is expected to move slowly towards
southern Mexico and Guatemala by early next
week. It will bring enhanced moisture and heavy rainfall to
Guatemala, which may lead to elevated flood risks.
1
No Hazards
Posted for
Central America
Flooding
Abnormal Dryness
Drought
Severe Drought
Tropical Cyclone
Potential Locust Outbreak
Heavy Snow
Abnormal Cold
Abnormal Heat
Source: FEWS NET/NOAA
Famine Early Warning Systems Network
3
ement in rainfall last week eliminated moisture deficits for many areas of Guatemala and El Salvador
ift last week
has led
to a large
increase in rainfall across a wide portion of the region. This is especially
true
many
Weather
Hazards
Summary
May
12for
- 18,
2017areas in
son has started poorly. According to satellite estimates, regions along the Pacific side of Central America received large amo
Central America
and the Caribbean
100mm, especially
in southwestern
Guatemala,Overview
El Salvador, and western Nicaragua. Northern Guatemala also saw large rain
100mm. Many
other
partseliminated
of the moisture
region deficits
received
moderate
Nicaragua and localized parts of
Rainfall
last week
for many
areas of rainfall,
Guatemalawhile
and El northeastern
Salvador
eceived onlyLast
very
light
rains.
The
week’s
pattern
yielded
positive
7-day
anomalies
for
many
portions
of the
region.
This went a
week saw a large increase in rainfall across a wide portion of the region, especially in many areas where the Primera
season
has started
minating deficits
that
were
built
during
the
past
30
days
or
so
in
Southern
Guatemala
and
El
Salvador.
Some
local
poorly. According to satellite estimates, regions along the Pacific side of Central America, like southwestern Guatemala, El Salvador,areas
and of El
Honduras continue
to
exhibit
moisture
deficits.
The
Vegetation
Health
Index
still
indicates
poor
ground
conditions
and
western Nicaragua, received large amounts of rainfall, well in excess of 100mm. Northern Guatemala also recorded rainfall totals above even a
owever, conditions
reflected
by the
index
are
time average
laggedrainfall,
and, after
the increased
moisture,
the trend
to reverse so
100mm. Many
other parts
of the
region
received
while northeastern
Nicaragua
and localized
partsis
of expected
northern Honduras
received only very light rains. This alleviated deficits built during the past 30 days in Southern Guatemala and El Salvador, however, local
ad to the outlook
the
enhanced
rainfall
is expected
to continue.
Heavier
rainfallstill
totals
greater
than 100mm
areas of period,
El Salvador
andpattern
central of
Honduras
continue
to exhibit
moisture deficits.
Vegetation
health indices
indicates
poor ground
widespread conditions
than lastand
week.
greatest
rainfall
should
be found
inby
the
halflagged
of Guatemala
a developing
even aThe
negative
tendency.
However,
conditions
reflected
thesouthern
index are time
and the trendwhere
is expected
to reverse tropi
soon after
the increase
in moisture.
enhance rainfall.
Rainfall
totals
could exceed 200mm for some local areas bringing risk of floooding. Moderate rains of at lea
be widespread through the entire region. Very heavy rain is possible for parts of Costa Rica. Another week of average an
Lookingwill
ahead
the outlookdryness
period, above-average
ns as forecasted
puttoabnormal
concerns torainfall
rest. is expected to continue. Rainfall totals greater than 100mm could be even
more widespread than last week. The greatest rainfall should be found in the southern half of Guatemala where a developing tropical storm
(Adrian) will enhance rainfall. Rainfall totals could exceed 200mm for some local areas bringing risk of flooding. Moderate rains of at least
1 Rainfall
Total
Forecast
CMORPH
climatology
(mm)
25mm are likely to beWeek
widespread
through the
entire
region. Veryand
heavy
rain is possible
for parts of Costa
Rica.
Figure 4: CMORPH rainfall climatology (mm)
May 10 – 17, 2017
Valid: May 10 -May 16, 2017
Figure 1: Source NOAA / CPC
Source: NOAA/CPC
Figure 5: GEFS mean total rainfall forecast (mm)
Valid: May 11- May 17, 2017
Source: NOAA/CPC
Rainfall returns to average accross Hispaniola
Rains returned
to normal
across the islandorthis
past week. Regions receiving the most rain include Centre Department in Haiti and
ments about this product
may be directed
to [email protected]
1-301-683-3424.
neighboring areas, where satellite estimates indicate totals of more than 50mm. Portions of the southern peninsula of Haiti received
nearly 50mm of rain as well. Light or moderate rainfall was received elsewhere. The flooding threat in the Dominican Republic has
diminished. Still, large moisture surpluses abound throughout the island. 2-4 times the average amount of rain has fallen over the last
30-day period. Any concerns over early season dryness have likely been mitigated. Vegetation health looks positive for most areas
according to indices. However, a few parts of central Dominican Republic and southern Haiti show more average values. Another
week of average rainfall is forecast for Hispaniola, with 10-50mm of rain in most areas. Higher amounts are possible in central parts
of the Dominican Republic.
ABOUT WEATHER HAZARDS
Hazard maps are based on current weather/climate information, short and medium range weather forecasts (up to 1 week) and their potential impact on crop and
pasture conditions. Shaded polygons are added in areas where anomalous conditions have been observed. The boundaries of these polygons are only approximate at
this continental scale. This product does not reflect long range seasonal climate forecasts or indicate current or projected food security conditions.
Famine Early Warning Systems Network
4