Hazard Policy, Planning and Mapping in Major Circum-Pacific Cities 257
Hazard Policy, Planning
12.and
Mapping in Major
Circum-Pacific Cities
Harvey A. Shapiro∗
Abstract
On December 22, l989, the United Nations General Assembly unanimously proclaimed
the l990’s as the International Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction (I.D.N.D.R.).
The overall objective of the I.D.N.D.R. was to develop programs and projects that
reduce loss of life, property damage and social and economic disruptions resulting
from natural disasters. This was to be done by emphasizing pre-disaster actions,
including planning, prevention and preparation. This effort was particularly
important because natural disasters are becoming major problems, especially in the
largest cities. It is also important in light of the widely desired goal of Sustainable
Development, reconfirmed at the l992 U.N.C.E.D. conference in Rio. The promotion
of sustainable communities, one of the environmental management objectives of U.N.
Habitat II, requires making cities disaster resilient (if possible, disaster resistant),
among other things.
Among the trends in global urbanization recently pointed out are: (1) a majority
of the global population is now urban; (2) cities of over 8 million inhabitants are
becoming common; and (3) most of these huge cities tend to be located in the
developing countries. Many of these large cities, sometimes called megacities, are
located in the “catastrophe-prone” Pacific Rim nations, and this trend is expected to
continue into the 21st century. Making those, and all, cities safer from natural
hazards will be essential to help ensure stable and sustainable development. This
paper examines the extent to which major cities on the Pacific Rim have tried, to
date, to achieve the goals of the I.D.N.D.R. in terms of hazard policy, planning and
mapping.
∗
Professor, Dept. of Environmental Planning, Osaka Geijutsu University, Osaka
Prefecture, Japan
258 Urbanization, East Asia and Habitat II
Section 4: Urban hazard and Community Redevelopment
Twenty-seven such cities were examined, 15 in the Americas, 4 in the South and
Southwest Pacific, and 8 in East and Southeast Asia. Eight hazard vulnerabilities were
studied as they relate to each city, and whether or not, and to what extent each city
has a hazard policy, does hazard planning, and has done or is doing hazard mapping
was recorded. It was found that some 70% of the cities studied had some kind of
natural hazard-related policies, but only 15% or so were multi-hazard policies. A
similar thing may be said of hazard planning and hazard mapping. The situation is
somewhat better in the industrialized countries than in the developing ones. Natural
hazards are a real threat to virtually all cities in nations on the Pacific Rim,
especially the larger cities. Preparing for natural hazards should be an integral part
of comprehensive urban planning there and everywhere.
Keywords: Natural Hazards, Sustainability, Policy, Planning, Mapping,
Cities, Pacific Rim
I.INTRODUCTION
The overall objective of the United Nations General Assemblyapproved I.D.N.D.R. proclamation of December 22, l989 was to
develop programs and projects that reduce loss of life, property
damage and the social and economic disruptions resulting from natural
hazards. This was to be done by emphasizing pre-disaster actions,
including planning, prevention and preparedness (U.N.G.A., March,
l999, p.3). This effort is particularly important in light of the broadly
accepted principle of sustainable development (WCED, l987) and the
fact that natural disasters are becoming a major problem, especially in
very large cities (Mitchell,J., l995, p.303). In this context, Mitchell
(l995, p.304) noted several trends in globalization:
(1)A majority of the global population is now urban;
(2)Cities of over 8 million inhabitants (very large or megacities) are
becoming common;
(3)Most such cities are located in less-developed countries.
Nine of those megacities, are located in the “catastrophe-prone”
Pacific Rim nations, and this trend is expected to continue in the 21st
century (Nicholls, R., l995, p. 370).
One of the key commitments and strategies of the UN Habitat II
Agenda is to “prevent disasters and rebuild settlements” (UNCHS,
2000,pp.20-21). Communities that are resilient/resistant to disasters,
i.e. capable of reducing their vulnerabilities to disasters by both predisaster planning and post-disaster recovery, are sustainable (FEMA,
2000, pp.20-21). Making these and all cities safer from hazards will be
essential to help ensure stable and sustainable development.
Hazard Policy, Planning and Mapping in Major Circum-Pacific Cities 259
The Pacific Rim region, i.e. the Pacific Basin, is the most
seismically active zone in the world; Some 85% of all deaths due to
natural hazards occur in that region (Shah, l992, p.E12-1). It is there
too that most of the world’s megacities are located. There are now
nine, but it has been projected that there could be as many as 20 by the
year 2025. Of those, over half are expected to have a population of
over 20 million each (ten such cities in South Asia alone), many of
them coastal (Mitchell,J., l995, p.377). Those and other larger cities
(population over l million) have the largest concentration of
population and economic activities and thus have risk and exposure to
natural hazards. This paper presents the results of the author’s
examination of the extent to which many of these major Pacific Rim
cities, particularly some of the very large ones, have met the goals of
the I.D.N.D.R. and sustainability.
II.NATURAL HAZARDS AND NATURAL
DISASTERS
The terms “natural hazard: and “natural disaster” are often used
interchangeably. Though they are of course related, they are in fact
different! A natural hazard is an extreme natural event, such as a large
earthquake, a major flood or landslide, a devastating volcanic eruption,
a powerful cyclone/typhoon, or a huge tsunami (sea-bottom
earthquake-caused tidal wave) capable of overcoming society’s
capacity to cope. The impacts of these extreme natural events on
society are natural disasters. Natural hazards cannot be eliminated, but
the limits of tolerance of almost every society to their effects may be
increased. This helps to reduce the potential for a disaster to occur
(Foster, H.D., l980, p. l).
For most of history, at least in the Occident, natural disasters were
traditionally referred to as “Acts of God” and thus thought to be
unavoidable and a matter of fate. In more recent times, the term
natural disaster has tended to replace the supernatural (God), but in
both cases, something beyond the realm of human victims, something
external, was blamed. In the last few decades, people have started to
realize that they themselves create many disasters. Thus, in addition to
“Acts of God”, there is now also the term “Acts of Man”. Quarantelli
(l986, p.2) points out that from the viewpoint of prevention and
mitigation, the distinction between these two is really both useless and
false! It implies that one is more controllable that the other. He says,
260 Urbanization, East Asia and Habitat II
Section 4: Urban hazard and Community Redevelopment
“in fact, a disaster is ALWAYS primarily the result of human action; it
is a “SOCIAL EVENT”. In other words, so called natural hazards
cause social impacts only due to pre-, trans- and post-impact actions
of individuals and communities (Quarantelli,l986, p.2).
Building on floodplains makes people vulnerable to flood hazards.
Likewise, people not warned in time are vulnerable to being washed
away by a major tsunami, and the list goes on. Some of the
implications of this view are:
(1)Prevention and mitigation need to emphasize SOCIAL as well as,
not rather than, PHYSICAL solutions, i.e. attitudes and behavior
need to be changed. For instance, relocate outside a floodplain to
reduce vulnerability to flood disasters;
(2)A proactive stance is implied over a retroactive one. That is,
rather than waiting for a disaster to occur to act, people should be
encouraged to act appropriately BEFORE it occurs. It is
impossible to prevent the ground from shaking in a large
earthquake, but through laws, dangerous and vulnerable land uses
can/should be prevented on or very near active faults or on soils
that are vulnerable to liquefaction;
(3)React to the threat of natural hazards and their resulting disasters
as a part of ongoing national and social development programs
and policies to help reduce social vulnerabilities (Quarantelli, l986,
pp. 2-3). Some workers argue that the only way to achieve lasting,
sustainable hazard mitigation (particularly in less developed
countries where the magnitude of the problem is clearly daunting,
and its priority is low in terms of pressing day-to-day needs) is by
embedding hazard mitigation into the development process.
Disaster prevention and mitigation can thus be seen as an integral
part of development. This view is reflected by the idea that
disasters are indicators of the failure of development, and
development must be part of the process of reducing vulnerability
to disasters (Anderson, l985, pp. 46-51).
III.DISASTER PLANNING, MANAGEMENT,
PREVENTION AND MITIGATION
There are three basic phases of action related to natural disasters:
(1)Pre-disaster/proactive (risk assessment, reduction by planning,
urban design and building codes)
Hazard Policy, Planning and Mapping in Major Circum-Pacific Cities 261
(2)During the disaster (relief, rescue and assistance)
(3)Post-disaster/reactive (recovery and reconstruction)
Within this context, there are four courses of action that can be
taken to prevent/mitigate natural disasters:
(i)If possible, PREVENT them from occurring in the first place.
(ii)MITIGATE natural disasters using either or both
STRUCTURAL and NON-STRUCTURAL measures
(iii)EMERGENCY RESPONSE during and immediately after a
disaster occurs
(iv)RECOVERY AND RESTORATION after a disaster
(i) Needless to say, PREVENTING disasters from occurring in
the first place is the best course of action as this would mean
preventing the trigger mechanism (hazard) from occurring. For
instance, cloud seeding might prevent hurricanes or cyclones from
forming, or at least from developing to their full destructive strength.
Unfortunately, there is still little reason to think that we can eliminate
or prevent common triggers, such as hurricanes, earthquakes,
tornadoes, floods or volcanic eruptions from occurring. It is an ideal at
best but one that is likely to remain unattainable during the
foreseeable future (Quarantelli, l986, pp.4-5). (ii) If we accept (i) to be
true, the best we may be able to hope to do is to mitigate natural
disasters. To do this, there are both STRUCTURAL and NONSTRUCTURAL measures which could be used to reduce the direct
impacts of a hazard. STRUCTURAL ACTIONS might include:
relocating an endangered community away from a hazardous area to a
new safer one, however, this is seldom a “practical” measure, at least
in the short term. Repairing and/or retrofitting vulnerable structures
might be a more “practical” alternative. Dams and levees might be
built and/or reinforced to mitigate floods. Some NONSTRUCTURAL mitigating actions might include: land use and
development policies and controls (i.e. zoning), hazard mapping,
prediction and monitoring, warning systems, and others. Another predisaster action and one closely related to mitigation is preparedness.
So called disaster planning and the education and training to conduct
and carry it out are key here (see Foster, l980). This kind of planning
includes policies, scenarios and plans to mitigate disasters, such as
land use and relocation, mentioned before, as well as safety and
emergency plans to reduce deaths, illness and destruction. Every kind
of land use decision and policy has implications for risk, i.e. it may
262 Urbanization, East Asia and Habitat II
Section 4: Urban hazard and Community Redevelopment
increase or decrease the potential for future disasters. To reduce losses
from disasters, comprehensive land use plans should include SAFETY
as one major goal (Foster, l980, p.4 and Quarantelli, 1986 pp.6-8).
Disaster insurance, public information and hazard awareness
education are some of the other NON-STRUCTURAL preparedness
actions that may be taken. (iii) EMERGENCY RESPONSE during and
immediately after a disaster occurs includes: search and rescue,
emergency health and medical assistance, feeding, clothing and
temporary shelter-preparation actions, communications, traffic control
and transportation, fire fighting and crime prevention, among others
(Foster, l980, pp.214ff). The keys to the success of these actions are:
training, cooperation and coordination within and between involved
individuals, groups and organizations/agencies (A.D.R.C., l999).
Quarantelli (1986 p. 8) calls these actions “disaster management”. He
notes that in societies with both private and public sectors, such
coordination can be difficult to achieve. Even in state-controlled
societies, the coordination of government bureaucracies in performing
disaster management activities is not easy either. (iv) RECOVERY
AND RESTORATION are the policies, actions and activities designed
to repair lifelines and structures, relocate people out of impact areas,
to demolish dangerous structures, and to provide financial assistance
to victims. Ideally, every city should prepare for recovery from the
impacts of a disaster by developing plans for restoration and
reconstruction before the disaster occurs. This post-disaster planning
should be the last step in the disaster mitigation process. Planning for
reconstruction often clarifies where data is insufficient or inadequate,
and it allows time, hopefully, to correct those weaknesses (Foster, l980,
pp.239-240).
IV.THE VULNERABLE PACIFIC RIM
Major cities on the Pacific Rim (Fig. 1) are the main objects of this
paper because the Pacific Rim countries are catastrophe-prone
(McCormack, l996, p.166). For instance, there are some 1,500
volcanoes in the world, but it is the Pacific Rim which contains the
greatest concentration of active volcanic eruptions, hence the name
“Circum-Pacific Ring of Fire” (Miller, l966, p.173). In 2000, over 500
million people, mostly in the developing Pacific Rim countries, were
at risk from volcanic eruptions (Tilling, l996, p.276). Also, the
Circum-Pacific Belt is the most seismically active zone in the world
(Bolt, l993, pp. 28-29). Furthermore, nearly 8.5% of all deaths due to
Hazard Policy, Planning and Mapping in Major Circum-Pacific Cities 263
natural hazards occur in Asia and the Pacific Rim. As urbanization of
major cities increases there, the risk to lives and property is likely to
increase (Shah, l992, p. E12-1). In 2000, 9 of the13 megacities already
prone to natural disasters were in Asia (Connections, l998, p.18). It is
the pervasiveness of all kinds of hazards combined with rapid urban
growth and development, especially in the Pacific Rim’s coastal cities,
that make that region perhaps the most dangerous one on earth. It was
the recognition of this fact, among others, that led the I.D.N.D.R. to
stress the need for disaster reduction in coastal cities in particular
(International Conference..., 1994, p.10). The remainder of this paper
deals briefly with natural hazard-related policies, and planning and
mapping activities in major cities (including several megacities) in the
264 Urbanization, East Asia and Habitat II
Section 4: Urban hazard and Community Redevelopment
Pacific Basin (Fig.2).
•major issue
Uminor issue
V.MAJOR CITIES ON THE EASTERN
PACIFIC RIM: North America
1. Anchorage, Alaska (U.S.A.) (2000 pop.=260,283)
Alaska is one of the most seismically active regions in the world.
Three of the ten largest earthquakes of the 20th century occurred in
that state (Preuss, l995, p.13), and another could strike at any time.
The city of Anchorage is surrounded by three active faults. The most
recent great earthquake (M=8.4) with its epicenter on one of them
occurred on March 27, l964. In response, the Anchorage Planning
Hazard Policy, Planning and Mapping in Major Circum-Pacific Cities 265
Department required soil and geological surveys, and the Anchorage
Science and Engineering Task Force developed earthquake risk maps
showing two categories of risk, nominal and high (Preuss, l995, p.28).
In addition, the l964 quake triggered a half dozen major landslides and
over 50 rock avalanches resulting considerable damage (Preuss, l995,
p.29).
Post-disaster recovery planning tools used there now include:
design guidelines, zoning and urban parks. Unfortunately, urban land
use planning focused exclusively on the l964 damage zones and was
not comprehensive for the entire city. Though the city’s response to
that earthquake was limited, the State of Alaska located the Alaska
Tsunami Warning Center (ATWC) there. ATWC serves to monitor
tsunami-genic earthquakes anywhere in the Pacific Basin. Its existence
is important for all cities, large and small, located on the seismically
active Pacific Rim (see Curtis, l99l).
2. Vancouver, B.C. (Canada) (l996 pop.=1.88 million)
Vancouver is the largest city on Canada’s Pacific coast. It is
vulnerable mainly to earthquakes, tsunamis, floods and volcanic
eruptions. Flooding of the Fraser River is a major natural hazard in the
Greater Vancouver region. The last major flood on the lower Fraser
River was in l948. Perhaps because of the long time since that major
inundation, flood hazard management in B.C. has become inadequate.
As of l993, flood plain mapping was not yet (completion as yet
confirmed) though an Integrated Flood Hazard Management Strategy
was published in l996.
In l980, a M=6.8 earthquake did struck the area, but due to the
city’s location geologically, a quake of M=9.0 is possible in the region
(Basham, l995, pp.1-7). Also, because of its coastal location, the city
is highly vulnerable to large tsunamis, once every 300-400 years
(Basham, l995, p.1-7). The B.C. Earthquake Response Plan was
developed to cope with this possibility and to meet the people’s needs
when the next large earthquake occurs. Within this context is
Vancouver’s Emergency Plan which includes hazard assessment,
emergency plans and responses (Hewson, l995, pp. 1-154 to 157). In
l995, a new multi-agency, cross-jurisdiction, post-disaster Emergency
Operations Communication Center began micro-zonation mapping for
the B.C. region, including Vancouver city.
Earthquakes are not only hazards threatening Vancouver. Its
266 Urbanization, East Asia and Habitat II
Section 4: Urban hazard and Community Redevelopment
multiple hazards include: fire, snow and volcanic eruptions.
Earthquakes may disrupt gas mains and other services leading to
extensive fires. Forest fires affect suburbs in the surrounding hills. A
new Fire Protection System (DFPS) was developed to create an
independent water supply usable in emergencies. It is an integral part
of the city’s Emergency Preparation Response Plan (Moore, et al, l996,
p.179). Severe winter weather can bring heavy snow, a major cause of
disasters throughout Canada. Some 44% of Canada’s disasters are
weather or climate related (Etkin, et al, l995, pp.1-64). In December of
l980, a 30cm snowfall crippled the city, and several deaths were
reported. Finally, the city is vulnerable to volcanic activity in the
Pacific Northwest, especially from eruptions in Alaska and
Washington state (Davenport, et al, l995, p.1-36). However,
information on the city’s response to this hazard seems scarce.
3. Seattle, Washington (U.S.A.) (2000 pop.=563,374)
Seattle is vulnerable to almost the same natural hazards as its
neighbor to the north, Vancouver B.C. Since l870, there have been six
major earthquakes, including M=7.4 in l872, M=7.6 in l946 and
M=7.1 in l949 (Seismic Hazards, l992, p.12). The most recent one was
M=6.8 that shook the city in the morning of February 28, 2001. It
caused $1 billion in damage and one death, but scores of injuries were
reported (Earthquake..., MDN, March 2, 200l, p.4). If an earthquake
of M=7.5 were to strike the city, over 2,000 deaths, some 9,000
injuries would be expected, and over 25,000 people would be left
homeless. Due to the city’s geological setting, liquefaction, lateral
spreading and landslides could occur (Seismic Hazards, l992, p.20).
Those “critical areas” have been identified, mapped and are an integral
part of the city’s new comprehensive plan (Seattle..., 1995, p.3). Other
critical areas included are: flood-prone areas, riparian corridors,
wetlands, fish and wildlife habitats, and toxic waste sites. Each of
these has planning policies.
Kobe and Seattle are sister cities, and it would seem that Kobe,
which was struck by a M=7.2 earthquake on January 17, l995, could
learn much from Seattle in terms of comprehensive city planning that
includes hazard areas and “critical area” with policies as an integral
part. Such things are not part of Kobe’s post-quake plans. However,
one hazard that Seattle has that Kobe does not is volcanism. Recently,
a new hazard assessment map for the Mt. Rainier volcano, some 150
km from Seattle was developed (Zimbelman, l996, pp.310-311).
Hazard Policy, Planning and Mapping in Major Circum-Pacific Cities 267
4. Portland, Oregon (USA) (l997 pop.=480,000)
The city of Portland is located in a zone which has a high
potential for damage from earthquakes (Using...,l996, p.fwd). Through
collaboration with Oregon’s Dept. of Geology and Mineral Industries,
a set of maps showing the distribution of earthquake hazards for the
metropolitan region was developed. These colored 1:24,000 scale
maps show seismic hazards, including landslides, liquefaction and
ground amplification (Using..., l996, p.1) and can be used to develop
long-range city plans, to assist emergency planning, lifeline
management, insurers and private citizens. A recent State law limits
construction of essential/special structures in tsunami inundation
zones. The metropolitan government is now collecting data on other
hazards, including floods, landslides, windstorms, winter
storms, volcanoes and droughts to eventually prepare
better for such possible hazards in the future.
5. San Francisco, California (USA) (2000 pop.=776,733)
San Francisco, like other large West coast North American cities,
is vulnerable to seismicity. After the last major earthquake in the Bay
Area, the l989 Loma Prieta earthquake, the government passed the
Seismic Zone Mapping Act. In accordance with its provisions, the
Division of Mines and Geology (CDMG) has mapped the region’s
seismic hazard zones. It has been said that an earthquake of M=7 is
likely there between 1990 and 2010 (Community..., l996, p.10). A
Seismic Hazard Zone Map has been completed for the northern half of
the city with the rest planned. Maps of Areas Vulnerable to
Liquefaction, Landslides, Wildfire Hazards and tsunamis (for a 7
meter run-up) have been developed. Since there are six dams in the
area, a collapse of one during a major earthquake could cause major
flooding. In l987, the city’s Emergency Operation Plan (EOP) was
developed to guide the city during emergencies. The fire department is
responsible for training people to respond after disasters using
Neighborhood Emergency Response Teams (NERT). This is the kind
of thing that helps promote hazard awareness and informs the people
on how to prepare for disasters.
6. Los Angeles, California (USA) (2000 pop.=13.2
million)
The Los Angeles area is one of the most disaster-prone areas in
268 Urbanization, East Asia and Habitat II
Section 4: Urban hazard and Community Redevelopment
the continental United States. Since l800, there have been some 60
damaging earthquakes in the area. It has been forecast that there is a
30% chance of a M=7.5 or large earthquake there within the next 5 to
30 years (Safety Element, l996, pp.11-13). The l975 California State
Law requires that ALL city plans have a “safety element” (Safety
Element, l996, p.vii). In it, the areas vulnerable to mostly earthquakerelated hazards are to be shown. Those in the L.A. Safety Element are:
Areas Vulnerable to Liquefaction, Landslides, Tidal Waves, Floods,
and Wildfires. The Los Angeles Earthquake Operations Center (EOC)
is responsible mainly for disaster-related initial response and recovery
phase activities for all of the above mentioned disasters. The Safety
Element gives guidelines for those activities.
VI.MAJOR CITIES ON THE EASTERN
PACIFIC RIM: Central America
1. Mexico City, Mexico (2000 pop.=18.07 million)
This megacity is highly vulnerable to earthquakes, floods, fires
and volcanic eruptions. Although at least 300 km from the nearest
tectonic plate boundary, it is situated in an upland basin surrounded by
volcanoes and is seismically particularly unstable because it is built on
saturated mud and clay of an old lake bed. The l985 great earthquake
that had its epicenter on the Pacific coast near Acapulco was the worst
in Mexican natural hazard history killing more than 10,000 people
caused mainly to the collapse of building due to the shaking of the
lake mud sediments. The city is still rebuilding over 15 years after that
earthquake (Mitchell, l994, p.8 and Hewitt, l997, p.220).
In l991, the city invested in the world’s then only public
earthquake alarm system (N.Y. Times, Dec. 19, l993). In addition to
earthquakes, volcanic activity is a major hazard for the city. The
Popocatepetl volcano is a major threat. Fortunately, new volcanic
hazard maps have been published (Abrahms, l996, p.3). There is now
enough geological and seismic information in Mexico to develop
preliminary micro-zonation maps and identify hazardous areas. What
the city and the country need to do the work is money and technical
support. Fortunately, with the support of the Japanese government
through the Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA), the
Natural Disaster Prevention Center (CENAPRED) has been set up to
aid Mexico in achieving necessary anti-hazard measures.
Hazard Policy, Planning and Mapping in Major Circum-Pacific Cities 269
Unfortunately, this city is typical of most cities in the Third World in
that it has a large and growing population of poor people living in the
most hazard-prone locations. Without comprehensive urban planning
that takes this fact into consideration, this vulnerable population could
continue to increase and natural disasters will too.
2. Guatemala City, Guatemala (2000 pop.=3.24 million)
Like many other cities in Central America, Guatemala City is
vulnerable to both earthquakes and volcanic activity. The l976
earthquake killed some 23,000 people and left about a million
homeless. Over 95% of the death toll was related to poverty and rural
adobe housing (Monzon-Despang, l996, pp. 178-179). The Santa
Maria volcano near the city has been continuously active for over 70
years. The pattern of hazards due to volcanic-lastic sediments has been
mapped. Effort is needed to improve and update this volcanic risk
mapping (Rose, l996, pp.227-228), but lack of funding is delaying this
important work. The retrofitting of weak buildings against
earthquakes is being delayed for the same reason.
3. Managua, Nicaragua (2000 pop.=1.01 million)
This city is particularly vulnerable to earthquakes, seismic seiches
on Lake Managua, floods and volcanism. The l972 earthquake there
(M=6.2) killed 10,000 people, flattened half the city and caused
devastating fires (Hewitt, l997, p.217). There again, top-heavy, mud
brick housing on unstable hillsides makes that city particularly
vulnerable to earthquakes and landslides. In April, l992, the Cerro
Negro volcano, about 15 km southeast of the city, erupted displacing
some l0,000 people and causing a great increase in health problems
and in the death rate in communities at or near the disaster zone
(Malilay, l996, pp.158-159). A major seichi killed dozens and caused
extensive damage that same year (Yeh, l996, p.303).
Several alternative city plans were developed, each based on
different assumptions about the area’s geological instability, but little
of this information was included in the city’s post-disaster
redevelopment. It took so long to complete the master plan that by the
time it was finally finished, much of the city’s industry and commerce
had been rebuilt often in the same dangerous locations as before the
quake struck (Foster, l980. pp. 24-245). Advanced pre-disaster
reconstruction plans need to be prepared to avoid such a situation
270 Urbanization, East Asia and Habitat II
Section 4: Urban hazard and Community Redevelopment
from occurring in the future.
4. San Jose, Costa Rica (2000 pop.=961,000)
This city is also vulnerable to volcanism as well as ocean storms
(hurricanes). The 2-year (l963-5) eruption of the Iraz Volcano, about
20 km ENE of the city, caused disruptive ashfall in the city that
affected the economy and human health (Young, l996, p.304). In l990,
the Regional Disaster Documentation Center (CDD) was established
in San Jose to coordinate and collaborate among organizations on
Latin American Disasters. The Center for Regional Information on
Disasters (CRID) was created in l997 to strengthen that country’s
cities against hazards and expand CDD services. One more concrete
hazard prevention activity has been the retrofitting of four hospitals in
the city to better prepare them to withstand natural hazards
(Protecting..., Nov. l993, p.12)
VII.LARGE CITIES ON THE EASTERN
PACIFIC RIM: South America
1. Bogota, Colombia (2000 pop.=6.77 million)
The majority of Colombia’s population lives in large cities
located in high risk areas. Until recently, there was little preparation
for earthquakes or landslides either by government nor by
communities at risk, even though those are the two hazards that are the
major ones threatening the city. Interestingly, a seismic risk map was
developed in l972 and updated in l978. It showed four risk zones for
the country, but it appears to have been put to little use (in Bogota).
In l986, the government did pass a law to create a national system
for risk mitigation and disaster preparation to include both structural
and non-structural measures, including changing the land uses in the
highest hazard zones. Under this law, the Colombia National Institute
of Geological Mining Investigations (INGEOMINAS) was put in
charge of developing a national seismic network and risk maps for
earthquakes, landslides, volcanic eruptions and floods (Praez, l986,
pp.220-221). Unfortunately, that all followed the terrible Nevado del
Ruiz volcanic eruption of November 13, l985 that killed 22,00024,000 people when a natural dam on the Lagunilla river collapsed,
and a volcanic mud flow buried an entire town (Golden, 1986, p.61).
Hazard Policy, Planning and Mapping in Major Circum-Pacific Cities 271
2. Quito, Ecuador (2000 pop.=1.62 million)
This city is vulnerable to earthquakes and volcanism, as well as
floods, droughts and landslides. Since l992, the Geohazards
International Laboratory at Stanford University in Palo Alto,
California has been conducting an Earthquake Management Program
in Quito developing several quake scenarios. The main purpose of
those “what if” studies is to develop information for city planning and
emergency management organizations on the expected damage
distribution of earthquakes of various sizes and locations (Ventura,
l996, p.285). Because earthquakes will be a part of Quito’s future, the
School Earthquake Safety Project was undertaken (l992-l994) to
evaluate the vulnerability of Quito’s public schools to earthquakes and
help the city design affordable ways to strengthen those buildings
(Investing…, l995). The objectives of all of those efforts are to raise
public awareness of hazard threats and to help motivate government,
business and country leaders to act and promote measures to reduce
quake damage/loss risks in Quito (Confronting…, May, l995, p.5).
G.I.S.-based mapping is part of those Stanford University Geohazards
Laboratory projects.
3. Lima, Peru (2000 pop.=7.44 million)
This large city is vulnerable to earthquakes, landslides, mud flows
and droughts. While the l970 Chimbote (Peru) earthquake (M=7.7)
killed some 67,000 people (a large portion of them in the Huascaran
debris avalanche) mainly in remote rural areas, the 1974 M=7.6 Lima
earthquake caused considerable damage in Lima itself, killing 78
people there and injuring around 2,500. Prior to this, Lima was badly
affected by an earthquake in 1940. The seismic code dating from l977
requires micro-zonation for areas of new urban development.
Unfortunately, this code is seldom applied. In fact, in Peru laws to
protect the people and property from natural hazards are very
poor/weak (Kuroiwa, l986, p.82). Nevertheless, the National
University of Engineering has developed a micro-zonation method
and is trying to apply it to city planning (Kuroiwa, l986, p.83).
Immediately after the l970 earthquake, the government of Peru
asked Japan for technical assistance to do such studies, and Tokyo
University experts have been advising the Institute ever since
(Kuroiwa, l986, p.88). The University of California at Berkeley has
also been assisting with related computer software. In l986, the Japan-
272 Urbanization, East Asia and Habitat II
Section 4: Urban hazard and Community Redevelopment
Peru Earthquake and Disaster Mitigation Research Center was set up
in Lima to help Peruvians with basic education and training in
earthquake engineering, as well as such techniques as building
retrofitting.
Upland deforestation and overgrazing contribute to increasing
vulnerability to mud slides and flooding in the city because of the
Lima area’s steeply sloping topography. Much of the metropolitan
area is above 100m in elevation, but at sea level Lima’s port of Callao
is particularly vulnerable to both tsunamis and possible future sea
level rise (Oliver-Smith, l999, p.253). Lima’s population continues to
grow, and much of this growth is made up of low-income people
seeking jobs in the city but who cannot afford to live in safe places.
Thus, as in other developing nations’ large cities, hazard vulnerability
is expected to increase in the years ahead (Hewitt, l997, p.151).
Mitchell says that hazard awareness is high in Lima, and this has
stimulated hazard and vulnerability research there (l999, p.286). One
result has been a map of probable seismic intensities. Micro-zonation
is being done at the regional scale, and micro-zonation techniques are
to be used for hazard analysis for the city in the near future (OliverSmith, l999, p.288).
4. Santiago, Chile (2000 pop.= 5.47 million)
This city is likewise vulnerable to earthquakes and volcanoes. A
large earthquake in July, l995 resulted in considerable damage in the
city due to differential subsidence (Egan, l996, p.78). That year, the
Advisory Commission for Emergencies and Disasters (ACED) carried
out micro-zonation mapping for earthquakes in Santiago. In addition,
geological maps and volcanic eruption history data was used to
develop volcano hazard maps which were updated, and revised microzonation maps for seismic vulnerability in six Chilean cities, including
Santiago, were developed.
Santiago is located about 200 km north northeast of the Navados
de Chillan volcano, one of Chile’s six active volcanoes identified as
high risk. Through a collaborative project of the Sernageomin (Chile),
the British Geological Survey and U.K. universities have produced a
geological map, and they used eruption history data to develop those
volcanic hazard maps (Sparks, l996, p.258). Coincidentally, the two
most active (lethal) volcanoes in South America, the Villarrica some
400 km south of Santiago, and the Navados de Chillan are BOTH
Hazard Policy, Planning and Mapping in Major Circum-Pacific Cities 273
located in Chile. Hazard mapping for both is being done.
VIII.MAJOR CITIES IN THE SOUTH &
SOUTHWESTERN PACIFIC
1. Honolulu, Oahu, Hawaii (USA) (2000 pop.= 876,156)
The Hawaiian Islands are all volcanic in origin, but the only
active volcanoes are at the southeastern end of the chain, away from
Oahu. The city of Honolulu is most threatened by hurricanes and
earthquake-caused tsunamis. Because of this and the city’s strategic
location in the center of the Pacific Basin, in l948, the Pacific Tsunami
Warning Center (PTWC) was set up in the city. Its main tasks are: (1)
Hazard assessment; (2) Warning guidance; (3) Response. Hazard
assessment involves developing tsunami inundation maps for the
coastline (Foster, l980, p.65). Those maps appear on the front page of
Hawaii’s phone books for easy public access and general knowledge
(Yanagi, l996, p.301). The Center was established after the l946
Aleutian Islands M=7.4 earthquake which created a tsunami that killed
173 people in Hawaii. The Tsunami Inundation Maps are single
hazard, one-purpose maps (Foster, l980, p.64). They can, however,
also be used for hurricanes because they can aid in evacuation efforts
before the hazard strikes, such as happened for instance before
Hurricane Iniki of l962.
2. Suva, Fiji (l998 pop.= 802,611)
As few large cities exist in the Pacific Islands , one of the most
populated islands there, Suva, was selected as an example of what
most other Pacific Ocean islands face in terms of natural hazards. Fiji
is vulnerable to cyclones, landslides, earthquakes and tsunamis.
Earthquakes are rather rare, but they do cause major disasters when
they strike. Every four or five years, a major cyclone causes severe
damage, though they may be expected every year. The Emergency
Services Committee (EMSEC) is responsible for planning and
organizing for disaster preparedness, as well as coordination with
other ministries and agencies after a disaster strikes (Asikinasa, l986,
pp.155-156). What Fiji needs is more disaster prevention planning, but
again, like most developing countries, it lacks funds and trained
personnel to do the job.
274 Urbanization, East Asia and Habitat II
Section 4: Urban hazard and Community Redevelopment
Since agriculture is the most vulnerable sector of Fiji’s economy,
agricultural hazard mitigation is a critical need (Asikinasa, l986,
p.170). However, a certain amount of impact from cyclones on growth
has become a part of national development planning, mainly in terms
of lost GNP but little else (Asikinasa, l986, p.173).
3. Auckland, New Zealand (2000 pop.= 1.1 million)
New Zealand’s largest city, Auckland, is vulnerable to volcanic
eruptions, landslides, earthquakes, tsunamis, coastal erosion and storm
surges. The city is built on an active volcanic field. Volcanic activity
could cause major problems in the area. A limited seismic monitoring
network was established in l986, but it needs improvement (Daly, l996,
pp.65-66). Nevertheless, due to lack of information and experience, a
complacent attitude toward those hazards exists in the city. Floods and
storm surges are the most common natural hazards locally, and being a
coastal city, the possible impacts of sea level rise on Auckland should
be of concern.
The l99l Resources Management Act shifted hazard management
responsibility from the central to the regional and local governments.
Accordingly, in l995, a regional policy statement for Auckland
included developing information and education about hazards and
risks, planning to avoid hazards, and support for civil defense and
emergency services (Daly, l996, p.66).
Three natural hazards are identified in the Auckland city plan: (1)
sea level rise; (2) flooding; and (3) land stability (Proposed…, l993).
Anti-hazard policies include: raising floor levels in flood-prone areas;
keeping drainage channels open; restricting development in landslideprone areas; and protecting vegetation on flood plains and upstream.
A “4 R’s” approach is used both before and after hazard impacts. 4 R’s
before= revamp, revise, remove, relocate: and 4 R’s after= respond,
recover, rebuild, and renew.
4. Wellington, New Zealand (2000 pop.= 346,500)
Earthquakes and landslides are the major natural hazards
threatening this city, New Zealand’s capital. The Wellington Regional
Council (WRC) prepared a strategy for a planned approach to hazard
mitigation. The strategy recognizes the importance of including
earthquake and landslide hazards in city planning (Kingsbury, l996,
pp.126-127). Most geological hazard information has already been
Hazard Policy, Planning and Mapping in Major Circum-Pacific Cities 275
compiled at 1:10,000 scale (Kingsbury, l996, p.128). G.I.S.-based
hazard mapping has also been done showing soil response to ground
shaking, liquefaction, landslides caused by earthquakes, faults and
tsunamis. There is a multi-hazard research project now trying to
combine all of those hazards into one comprehensive hazard map
using G.I.S. (Aggett, l996, pp.4-5). An earthquake of M=5.5 struck
the city on April 29, 2000 with no reports of injuries nor damage
(Moderate Quake..., Apr. 29,2000, p.4).
5. Sydney, Australia (2000 pop.= 3.9 million)
This city is located in the southeastern part of the Australian
continent and is the largest city in Oceania. Although not yet the
victim of a major natural disaster, it is vulnerable to earthquakes,
droughts, storms, floods and fires. On December 28, l989, a M=5.6
quake struck Newcastle, a city 100 km north of Sydney. As a result,
micro-zonation maps are now being prepared for major Australian
cities, including Sydney. Severe floods have occurred in Sydney, and
settlement in the Georges River flood plain is increasing which is
likewise increasing risk of future flood disasters. There is a flood
warning system for that river that is now being improved. Wildfires
are the most spectacular hazard in Sydney (Handmer, l999, pp.157158). In l994, 1995 and again in 2000 and 2001, bush fires on the
outer edges of the city took several lives and burned large areas of
forest as well as displacing thousands of residents (Fire Force…,
l997,).
There are three forms of hazard planning and management in
Sydney: (1) emergency preparedness and response; (2) risk
management; and (3) preventative planning (Handmer, l999, p.163).
However, there remains little preparation for geophysical hazards and
only some preparation for drought hazards. The city continues to
spread without much concern for natural hazards. This reflects the fact
that there has been little consideration of natural hazards in Sydney’s
city planning. The “immediate response” approach tends to dominate
and poses a strong barrier to proper planning and preparedness.
Flooding is, however, the most comprehensively planned for in
Sydney (Handmer, l999, pp.363-365).
276 Urbanization, East Asia and Habitat II
Section 4: Urban hazard and Community Redevelopment
IX.LARGE CITIES IN SOUTHEAST AND
EAST ASIA
1. Jakarta, Indonesia (2000 pop.= 11.2 million)
This city is vulnerable mainly to earthquakes, tsunamis, volcanic
eruptions, subsidence, landslides and flooding. Due to Indonesia’s
location at the end of three tectonic plates, as in Japan, over 10% of
the world’s earthquakes occur there annually (Muniady, l992, p.E213). Because of this geo-hazard environment, several macro-zonation
maps have been developed for the country, one for earthquakes
(building and structures), one for volcanism, and another for
landslides (Santoso, l992, pp.22-5 & 6). The extent and scale of this
data is unclear. Jakarta suffers subsidence due to ground water
abstraction, which has increased the city’s vulnerability to flooding
and tsunamis (see Douglas, this volume).
2. Manila, Philippines (2000 pop.= 9.95 million)
This major Southeast Asian city is vulnerable to typhoons,
flooding due to storm surges, and to volcanic eruptions as well as to
volcano-tectonic earthquakes. In June of l991, Mt. Pinatubo, about 90
km northwest of the city, erupted after 600 years of dormancy. The
ejected volcanic ash was particularly disruptive to aircraft flying
nearby and also affected ground transportation, forcing the closure of
Manila’s International Airport. This suggested the need to prepare
volcanic hazard maps both for aircraft safety and for the safety of the
people living on volcanic flanks (Bronto, l992, p. 2). As in most other
developing nations’ large cities, Manila needs better mitigation by
forecasting and early warning, disaster prevention and preparation,
training and research, as well as stronger building codes and proper
land use to avoid dangerous areas, such as flood plains, faults and
volcano slopes. This is especially so because the active Marikina
Valley fault system is only 5 km from the center of Metro-Manila. A
major earthquake in this system could destroy much of the city due to
its location on sediments with a high potential for liquefaction and
from landslides on the city’s surrounding steep slopes (Connections,
No.2, Jan l998, pp.16-17).
The Philippines in general and Manila in particular experience the
highest frequency of tropical storms in the world (Lirios, l986, p.29).
Hazard Policy, Planning and Mapping in Major Circum-Pacific Cities 277
The Philippine Meteorological Service (PAGASA) in Manila tracks
tropical cyclones and issues forecasts and warnings. In l974, it started
tracking using a U.S. satellite, and in l977, it started using the
Japanese GMS satellite to track typhoons in the region. JICA has
aided that country in flood forecasting in its major river basins (Lirios,
l986, p.36-47). In Manila, heavy cyclone rains have often triggered
severe landslides in the huge rubbish dumps on the outskirts of the city,
killing many of the “rag-pickers” living and working around those
dumps. Also, further from the city, the cyclone rains reactivate the
Pinatubo lahars, creating new mudflows threatening people
downstream.
3. Bangkok, Thailand (2000 pop.= 7.37 million)
This large city, located on the Chao Phraya delta, is at a ground
elevation of only 0.5-2.0 meters above sea level (Daranandana, l986,
p.177). Because of this, many of its canals (klongs) that used to carry
overflow from the Chao Phraya river have been filled in to create city
streets. Subsidence due to over pumping of water from aquifers makes
the city highly flood-prone (Mitchell, l999, p.27). Bangkok is one of
the world’s fastest “sinking cities”. The urban area of the city has
grown without control nor planning onto flood-prone paddy fields and
swamps bordering the city. If anticipated future sea level rise occurs, a
major portion of the city’s low-lying area could be flooded (Bird, l989,
p.1).
In l983, the National Committee for Flood Protection in Bangkok
began several flood hazard-related projects including: establishing a
green belt zone to protect against overflow from flooded agricultural
lands; build an earth dike 3 meters high; construct new flood gates and
new pumping stations; dredge the main canal; and move illegal
housing away from flood canals. J.I.C.A. produced a master plan
study for those projects, and other countries, including Austria,
Holland, Canada and the United States sponsored or consulted on
flood protection (Daranandana, l986, p.189). Since then, many
structural and non-structural measures have been taken. As a city in a
developing country, Bangkok depends heavily on foreign aid and
technical assistance to carry out such projects. Although the pattern of
subsidence has been mapped, data has yet to be found related to
micro-zonation or other such anti-hazard mapping.
Though Thailand has no great earthquake vulnerability, leaflets
carrying predictions of earthquakes and giving guidelines to the
278 Urbanization, East Asia and Habitat II
Section 4: Urban hazard and Community Redevelopment
people on how to cope with them were recently distributed to local
residents. Though the Meteorological Department which issued those
pamphlets said it did not predict any earthquakes, 5000 leaflets were
published by them in the belief that they would help raise
preparedness for disasters, urging the people to stockpile food,
medicine and flashlights. (Bangkok…, Apr. 24, 2000, p.4). The
leaflets, printed after the l999 Turkey and Taiwan earthquakes, caused
panic among residents. Perhaps, the effort might have been better
spent preparing for flooding instead.
4. Kuala Lumpur (2000 pop.= 1.38 million)
Kuala Lumpur is not an earthquake-prone area and is away from
cyclone tracks, but heavy tropical storms may cause severe local
flooding aggravated by human action in the catchment area of the
Sungai Kelang (Klang River). Both structural and non-structural
measures are used to deal with it. Among the non-structural measures
are: flood forecasting and warning systems, flood zoning and flood
risk mapping, and resettlement of affected populations. Clearing of
forested catchments for agriculture, mining and urban development
since 1900 have greatly aggravated flooding in the city.
Comprehensive catchment/river basin planning is needed to guide
future development so as not to aggravate existing flooding nor create
new flood-related problems. Flood risk mapping has been suggested
as one way to minimize flooding usually associated with urban
development (Loi, l992, p. FO 5-2 to 5-5).
Finally, over half of the city is underlain by limestone and is thus
vulnerable to sinkhole collapse. Particular care had to be taken when
building the Petronas twin towers in the 1990’s, the world’s tallest
building at the time. Similar karstic problems occur in parts of
Indonesia and the Philippines, around Guilin in China and at
Haiphong in Vietnam. Recognizing the importance of engineering
geology in urban development and city planning, an Environmental
and Urban Geology Unit was established to survey potential hazards
and produce urban geology maps (1:l0,000 scale) that can be used in
city planning. (Mohamad, l994, pp.139-144).
5. Seoul, Republic of Korea (2000 pop.= 9.89 million)
This megacity is vulnerable to floods, typhoons, storms,
landslides and blizzards. However, because there are almost no active
Hazard Policy, Planning and Mapping in Major Circum-Pacific Cities 279
faults on the peninsula, earthquakes are not considered to be a threat
to Seoul (Lee, l994, p.148). Nevertheless, geological maps (1:50,000
scale), engineering geological maps of eight areas (1:25,000 scale) and
geomorphological maps (1:50,000 scale) exist for the entire country
and at 1:5,000 scale for some urban areas (Lee, l994. p.148).
Seoul is on the banks of the Han River and has great flood
potential. One third of the city is below the threshold elevation for
serious flood risk. However, flood plain management and flood risk
zoning is a neglected aspect of the city’s urban planning process (Kim,
l999, p.103).
Because of the mountainous character of Seoul, landslides
triggered by rainstorms are a major threat. Storm surges due to
typhoons also occur. Neither the 2nd Comprehensive National Plan
(l982-l991) nor Seoul’s General Development Plan (l990) include
natural hazards (Kim, l999, p.116). Such anti-flood measures as do
exist are almost all structural, and non-structural flood reduction
measures have been neglected (Kim, l999, p.117). Several Korean
organizations dedicated to natural hazard research have undertaken
various mapping programs, some using G.I.S. However, tension with
North Korea continues to limit access to this information and hinders
hazard prevention policy-making, planning and mapping in Seoul and
the country as a whole (corresp. Kim…, Sept. l, 2000).
6. Taipei, Republic of China (2000 pop.= 2.55 million)
Taipei is vulnerable to virtually all the hazards experienced by
large Japanese cities, i.e. typhoons, earthquakes, floods and landslides,
however volcanism is not a threat there, unlike Tokyo, for instance.
The major earthquake, known as the “921” or “Ji-Ji” earthquake
(M=7.7), struck Nantou Province, central Taiwan on September 21,
l999 (The Taiwan…, Jan. 2000, pp.13-14). It was followed by a
powerful aftershock (M=6.4) on October 22nd of the same year
(“Taiwan…, Oct. 23, l999, p.5) (see also Chien-yuan Lin, this volume).
The September 21st earthquake resulted in some 2,400 deaths and
displaced over 320,000 people. Despite being 150 km SSW of Taipei,
it caused damage and power failures in that city. It has been estimated
that if a major earthquake were to strike Taipei, as many as 250,000
people could perish, but until the “921” earthquake, nobody believed
it, and there was practically no awareness of the danger that the city
faces (“Taiwan daijishin”, Oct. 18, l999, p.8). Also, until “921”
occurred, there were few detailed maps of the active fault locations in
280 Urbanization, East Asia and Habitat II
Section 4: Urban hazard and Community Redevelopment
Taiwan, but after the earthquake, the government decided to map such
faults. There are 51 active faults in Taiwan, and mapping is to be done
at 1:1,000 scale. No housing construction nor reconstruction of several
schools near those faults (within 15 meters distance) will be permitted
(Katsu-danso, Oct. 22, l999, p.4).
Earthquake maps aside, a few hazard-related maps do exist for
Taipei. For instance, there is a map of potential for liquefaction and
another of evacuation routes and open spaces for evacuation. There is
also a set of hill slope failure maps. However, there is no flood hazard
map (corresp. S. L. Huang, Sept. 1, l997) despite the fact that the
meiyu (baiyu, “plum rains” in Japanese) in late spring and typhoon
seasons bring floods regularly. An integrated meteorological data
system that was completed in l992 is helping monitor rainfall to
increase the warning time before floods (Tsay, l992, p.FO2-7).
As for protection against landslides, traditional methods are
mainly structural. However, deforestation is now strictly forbidden in
Taiwan, including Taipei, and the revegetation of cut over slopes is
encouraged as important non-structural methods (Hung, l992, p.GO22 & 2-5).
7. Shanghai, P.R.C. (2000 pop.= 12.89 million)
The 2nd largest city in China, Shanghai is vulnerable to
earthquakes, tsunamis, floods and coastal erosion. Because of its lowlying deltaic location, it would be vulnerable to a sea level rise of one
meter because some sections of the CBD have been landfilled but are
still below sea level (Turner, et al, l990, p. 61). Natural subsidence
combined with ground water pumping resulted in subsidence of as
much as of 10 cm/yr in parts of the city early in the 20th century. The
city continues to subside slowly, even today (Seigel, l996, p.125).
Salt water intrusion threatens not only the city’s water supply but
also large areas of paddy fields on the deltaic plain (Turner, l990,
pp.46-47). The completion of the Three Gorges Dam is likely to
reduce sediment supply and result in erosion of the delta’s coastline,
thus increasing the city’s vulnerability to tsunami hazards and possible
sea level rise.
To protect the city, overall planning for the Yangtze River Basin,
including flood and erosion control is urgently needed (see Lundqvist,
et al, l985, especially pp.131-150). The work on the Three Gorges
project has increased attention to such issues. Also, comprehensive
Hazard Policy, Planning and Mapping in Major Circum-Pacific Cities 281
research on disaster mitigation and a combination of both structural
and non-structural measures, including hazard education and disaster
management training, would be helpful.
There are numerous hazard-related maps in China. For instance,
there is the Geological Hazard Prevention and Construction Atlas of
China, which includes over 30 geological hazards. Most of this
mapping is done, however, at the national scale of 1:12,000,000 and
1:6,000,000. Some maps along major faults are being developed at
1:50,000 scale (Guoyu, l994, pp.119-123). New detailed urban
mapping of such features for cities like Shanghai would be highly
beneficial. Such maps could then be used to create disaster prevention
and mitigation plans for the entire city.
8. Tokyo, Japan (2000 pop.= 12.24 million) (see Tokyo’s
population…, 2002)
There are several large cities in Japan, but Tokyo is by far the
largest, a true megacity. It is one of the most hazard-vulnerable
megacities in the world. It is vulnerable to earthquakes, liquefaction,
landslides, tsunamis, fires, subsidence, floods, high winds, heavy
rainfalls and volcanic eruptions! It experiences five to twenty major
hazard events per year on average (Kumagai, and Nojima, l999,
pp.64-66). Six large earthquakes (M over 7) have struck the city since
l615. The l923 Great Kanto Earthquake (M=7.9) killed l40,000 and
devastated nearly half of the city’s built-up area (Kumagai & Nojima,
l999, p.66). It has been estimated that another quake of that magnitude
today could kill 10,000-70,000 (Kumagai & Nojima, l999, p.79).
Tokyo has experienced eight major floods since l900 (Kumagai &
Nojima, l999, p.67). Major investments in lowland structures have
reduced flood damage, but urbanization upland has increased the
potential for future downstream flooding. Potential sea level rise could,
however, increase the flood vulnerability of the city’s vast coastal
landfills, as well as those of Japan’s other large coastal cities, such as
Nagoya, Osaka and Kobe (Nicholls, l995, pp.372-374). It could also
place large areas of the city proper, as far inland as the Kokubunji area
near Tachikawa, several kilometers west of the city center, under
water (Sato, 2001, p.13).
After World War II and a series of large disasters, the Central
Government enacted the Disaster Countermeasures Basic Law (l961).
It was designed to develop a nationwide, comprehensive, government
282 Urbanization, East Asia and Habitat II
Section 4: Urban hazard and Community Redevelopment
system for disaster prevention. In accordance, the Tokyo Metropolitan
Government prepared a Prefectural Plan for Disaster Prevention which
is checked regularly and amended as considered necessary by experts.
It was last revised in l998, the first time in six years. It assumes a
“severest case disaster scenario” of fire spreading in winter and
proposes measures to fight fires and ways to escape from them
(Shibata, l992, p.EO5-7). It designates high fire risk areas and open
space evacuation areas.
Tokyo’s future hazard prevention policies are expected to be
structural based, as in the past, but more attention is needed on
integrating disaster education, voluntary private mitigation, disaster
drills, and other non-structural measures and strategies. into them.
Furthermore, a basin-wide approach is needed to integrate and
coordinate actions and policies related to disasters throughout the
entire city, not just for the CBD.
X.CONCLUDING REMARKS
The 27 major cities studied here include several Pacific Rim
megacities, many in developing countries, and two in Newly
Industrialized Countries (N.I.C.s.). Eight major types of natural
hazards occur in the study region. Over 90% of all cities studied suffer
earthquake and tsunami hazards, nearly 60% are vulnerable to
volcanic eruptions and/or flood hazards, about 40% are vulnerable to
landslides, mud flows and/or avalanches, some 33% are vulnerable to
typhoon/hurricane hazards, some 12% suffer from blizzards, and two
experiance drought hazards.
This research was directed particularly at studying the natural
hazard policies, planning and hazard mapping conditions in all of the
cities. Nearly 75% of them have some kind of policies pertaining to
natural hazards, but only 15% of those policies are multi-hazard
policies, i.e. dealt with more than one hazard simultaneously. Most of
the cities that have hazard policies include some kind of hazard
planning, but here again, only a few are planning for multiple hazards.
Likewise, over 60% of the cities studied have done some hazard
mapping, but again, only a small number have maps for more that one
natural hazard.
There appears to be a considerable gap between major cities in
the industrialized countries and those in the developing ones. Whereas
almost all of the large or megacities in the industrialized countries
Hazard Policy, Planning and Mapping in Major Circum-Pacific Cities 283
have hazard policies, planning and mapping, less that half those in the
developing nations do so. Lack of funds, personnel and training in
major cities, perhaps all cities, in the developing countries are the
main reasons for this difference. Where hazard policies do exist,
foreign financing and technical assistance have been key factors in
their existence.
The situation in the two N.I.C.S. cities, Seoul and Taipei, is
somewhat similar to that of the cities in the developing nations. The
I.D.N.D.R. did much to help reduce the information gap on
earthquakes between developing and developed countries’ major cities,
but losses/costs due to natural hazards continue to increase
everywhere (Etkin,D., l999, p.67).
Natural hazards in these large Pacific Rim cities in particular, but
all cities in general, are extremely important issues. They are likely to
become critical in future as the number of cities and urban population
concentrations increase.
With a few exceptions, such as Seattle, Washington (USA),
hazard planning and mitigation are not integrated into city planning.
Furthermore, the most common approach to hazards still tends to be
post-active response, i.e. after the event occurs. This response is
important of course, but it is only one part of the five actions needed
to deal with natural hazards. These are:
l.PREVENTION: actions to control the natural phenomena, where
possible;
2.MITIGATION: actions taken before a disaster to minimize human
material losses during a disaster;
3.PREPARATION: pre-disaster actions to increase the ability to
rescue, and provide relief and rehabilitation
during and after a disaster;
4.RESPOND: actions taken immediately after the disaster strikes;
5.RECOVER: actions to restore normal services and rebuilding
and/or relocate damaged or destroyed structures and
infrastructure.
It is essential that ALL of these actions be included in planning
for sustainability of all cities, especially the major and mega-cities. In
Japan, (the home of this author for some three decades), disaster still
seems to be accepted by most people as unavoidable, “acts of god”,
the fate of the victims. However, as was mentioned in the introduction,
284 Urbanization, East Asia and Habitat II
Section 4: Urban hazard and Community Redevelopment
most such losses are in fact “acts of man”. Natural hazards may be
inevitable and many unavoidable, but good environmental
planning/ecological planning (for instance, see McHarg, l992 and
Steiner, 2000) with a strong orientation toward hazard
prevention/reduction can help reduce avoidable natural disaster losses.
Environmentally sensitive land use planning can help reduce disasters
by reducing population density and keeping or guiding vulnerable
land uses away from hazardous areas. It has been said that all
disasters are a result of human actions (including ignorance,
carelessness and inaction). If this is accepted as true, then human
actions, such as environmental planning/ecological planning, should
be able to help reduce or maybe even help avoid many of the disasters
resulting from natural hazards. Reducing vulnerability to natural
disasters, which affect and will increasingly affect more and more of
humanity and its settlements in the years and decades to come, should
have high priority in the processes of national, regional, sub-regional
and especially urban planning and development.
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