Economic History Association Agricultural Chutes and Ladders: New Estimates of Sharecroppers and "True Tenants" in the South, 1900-1920 Author(s): Lee J. Alston and Kyle D. Kauffman Source: The Journal of Economic History, Vol. 57, No. 2 (Jun., 1997), pp. 464-475 Published by: Cambridge University Press on behalf of the Economic History Association Stable URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/2951048 . Accessed: 09/05/2011 13:27 Your use of the JSTOR archive indicates your acceptance of JSTOR's Terms and Conditions of Use, available at . http://www.jstor.org/page/info/about/policies/terms.jsp. JSTOR's Terms and Conditions of Use provides, in part, that unless you have obtained prior permission, you may not download an entire issue of a journal or multiple copies of articles, and you may use content in the JSTOR archive only for your personal, non-commercial use. Please contact the publisher regarding any further use of this work. Publisher contact information may be obtained at . http://www.jstor.org/action/showPublisher?publisherCode=cup. . Each copy of any part of a JSTOR transmission must contain the same copyright notice that appears on the screen or printed page of such transmission. JSTOR is a not-for-profit service that helps scholars, researchers, and students discover, use, and build upon a wide range of content in a trusted digital archive. We use information technology and tools to increase productivity and facilitate new forms of scholarship. For more information about JSTOR, please contact [email protected]. Cambridge University Press and Economic History Association are collaborating with JSTOR to digitize, preserve and extend access to The Journal of Economic History. http://www.jstor.org AgriculturalChutesand Ladders:New Estimates of Sharecroppersand "TrueTenants"in the South, 1900-1920 LEE J. ALSTON AND KYLE D. KAUFFMAN In the latenineteenthandearlytwentiethcenturies,the increasein tenancy,particularly in the South, alarmedmany social commentatorsand later was an issue taken up by a numberof historians.'Indeedthe issue of rising tenancyrates was a majorplank in the platformof the Populistmovement.However,before one can make interpretationsof the welfare of agriculturalworkersas a resultof this rise in tenancyone needs to look more closely at the individualrungsof the agriculturalladder.2 rungon the southernagricultural This articlesets out to repairthe damagedsharecropper ladder.Withoutadditionalinformationregardingthis rung,it is impossibleto get a complete pictureof the movementup anddown the southernagriculturalladder.In the census years 1900 and 1910, the Census Bureauincorrectlyclassified sharecroppersas tenants, placingtoo manyworkerson thatmoreaffluentrungof the ladder.The intentof this article in orderto providea moreaccuratecount of the is to estimatethe numberof sharecroppers numberof "truetenants"in theseyears.Withthis more completedepictionof the agriculturalladder,movementsup and down the ladderbetweenthe years 1900 and 1960 can be more accuratelydiscussed,and therebya basis is providedfor scholarsto accuratelyaddress the truewelfareimplicationsof these movements. Much of the misunderstandingof how the postbellum southernagriculturalsystem of how the census defined a "tenant,"specifically workedis based on misinterpretations how it defined a "sharetenant."Beginningin 1920, the U.S. Census changedits "share Fromthenon sharetenantsandsharecroppers tenant"categoryto exclude"sharecroppers." (or more commonlyreferredto as just "croppers")were, in the eyes of the census, fundamentallydifferenttypesof farmoperators.Althougha cropperfarmeda certainplot and received a share of the harvestfrom that plot as income, he often differed from other tenants in importantrespects,especiallywhen he workedon a plantation.3Therehe was usuallyclosely supervised;he madenone of the majorfarmingdecisions;and he generally suppliedno inputbesideslaborservices.In most southernstateshe hadno legal possession TheJournalof EconomicHistory,Vol. 57, No. 2 (June 1997). C The EconomicHistoryAssociation. All rightsreserved.ISSN 0022-0507. Lee J. Alstonis Professorof Economicsat theUniversityof Illinois,Urbana,IL61801, andResearch Associate, NationalBureauof EconomicResearch,Cambridge,MA 02138. Kyle D. Kauffmanis AssistantProfessorof Economicsat WellesleyCollege,Wellesley,MA 02181. This work has benefittedfromuseful discussionswith and commentsfromLou Ferleger,Joseph Ferrie,MaryGregson,WayneGrove,RobertHiggs, LynneKiesling,Naomi Lamoreaux,LarryNeal, MortonSchapiro,SusanSkeath,AndreThompson,two anonymousreferees,as well as participantsof workshopsat the Universityof Illinoisandat WellesleyCollege.JenniferDonathanprovidedexcellent researchassistance.SupportfromtheMildredMcAfeeHortonResearchFundof WellesleyCollege is gratefullyacknowledged.Partof the researchfor this articlewas conductedwhile Lee Alston was a VisitingProfessorat the Universityof Colorado. 'Relyingon pre-1920censusdata,economistsandhistorianshadbeenled to believethatagricultural tenancy in the South increaseddramaticallyduringthe early twentiethcentury(Turner,"Graphic Summary";Black and Allen, "Growth";Tindall,Emergence;and Woodward,Origins). ladderis thetermgenerallyusedto referto thehierarchyof thoseengagedin agriculture 2Agricultural rangingfromwageworkers(atthebottom)to plantationowners(atthe top). By the agriculturalladder we meanthe increasingoccupationalstatusas one would move froma wage workerto a cropper(in the South)to a tenantand for some reachingownershipstatus. 3Alstonand Higgs, "ContractualMix";Shannon,FarmersLast Frontier;and Woodman,"PostCivil WarSouthernAgriculture." 464 AgriculturalChutesand Ladders 465 of the land except the right of daily access at the landlord'spleasure.4In every respect excepthis customaryoccupancyof a fixed plot andhis receiptof income in the formof a cropsharefromthatplot, he resembleda wage laborermorethana truetenant.5Thenotion that cropperswere in fact not actually"tenants"in the morerestrictivesense of the term was set out clearlyby the GeorgiaSupremeCourtin 1872 in Applingv. Odum: Thereis anobviousdistinction betweena cropper anda tenant.Onehasa possessionof the premises exclusive ofthelandlord, theotherhasnot.Theonehastherightfora fixedtime,the otherhasonlya rightto go onthelandto plant,work,andgatherthecrop.... Thecaseof the cropper is rather a modeof payingwagesthana tenancy. Thetitleto thecropsubjectto wages is intheownerof theland.6 In the agricultural censusesbetween 1920 and 1959, cropperswere countedseparately, being definedas sharetenantsto whomthe landlordfurished workstock (or, from 1940 onward,tractorpower).This countingprocedureallows us to get an idea of the numberof peopleinvolvedandhencethe seriousnessof misclassifyingcroppersas tenants.In factthe 1920censusreportsnearly18percentof southernfarmoperatorsas croppers.Whenbroken downby race,over 36 percentof blackfarmoperatorswere croppers,whereasjust under 10 percentof whitefarmoperatorswereclassifiedas croppers.In additionthese enumerations showthata largeproportionof the tenantfarmsin the Southwere cropperplots (for example,35 percentin 1920,38 percentin 1950).Amongblacktenants,theproportionwas even higher(47 percentin 1920, 54 percentin 1950).7 Withthisbetter-defined classificationof southernfarmworkers,historianscould, starting withthe 1920censusreturns,makemorepreciseinferencesregardinglocationson the ladder.Forexample,hadthe censusof 1920continuedto misclassifycroppers agricultural as sharetenants,it wouldhavereported38 percentratherthan20 percentof the population in the relativelymoreaffluentcategoryof sharetenant. To permita moreaccurateassessmentof the growthanddeclineof tenantsandcroppers, state estimatesof the numberof croppersin the South in 1900 and 1910 are produced. Next, by deleting croppersfrom the census-definedtenants,a new series on the lower boundof "truetenancy"is produced.Withthese new dataa betterpictureof the southern agriculturalladdercan be painted.One of the most strikingfindingsis thatin the period from 1900 to 1930 the groupof southernagriculturalworkersascendingthe agricultural ladderat the greatestratecamefromthebottomrung,wageworkersmovingup to croppers. THESOUTHERN LADDER AGRICULTURAL Overthe postbellumperiod,agricultural contractingevolvedintothreeprincipalcategories:wage, sharecrop,andtenant.The differentpositionsof laborhave been characterized as representinga hierarchicalagriculturalladder.8As the nameimplies therewere several "rungs,"up which an agriculturalworkercould ascend(or descend).With each succes4Magnum, LegalStatus;U.S. Bureauof the Census,SixteenthCensus;and Woodman,"Post-Civil WarSouthernAgriculture." 5As Woodman,New South,notes, in practiceand in the eyes of the law sharecroppers and wage workerswereforall intentsandpurposesthe same.In additionsee Jaynes,Branches,who sees sharecroppingas a formof putting-outlaborwhich is also consistentwith this interpretation. 6Quotedin Brooks(AgrarianRevolution,p. 67). This delineationbetweencropperandtenantwas upheldby the Courtin severalsubsequentrulings. 7U.S. Bureauof the Census,U.S. CensusofAgriculture:Vol. 2, GeneralReport,Color,Race, and Tenureof FarmOperators,table4. 8Forbackgroundon the agriculturalladdersee Atack, "Tenants"and "AgriculturalLadder"; Shlomowitz,"Origins";Whatley"Labor";andWright,Old South. 466 Alston and Kauffman sively higherrungcamegreaterjob responsibility,increasedcontrolof workpace, and on averagemorepay.9For example,Louis Ferlegerfoundthatin 1913 sharecropperincome was $333, comparedto an income of $398 for sharetenantsand $478 for cash tenants.'" ladderwas thatof wage worker.A wage workerwas The lowest rungon the agricultural generallya youngmanwho typicallyhadlittlehumanor physical capital.Because reward (wages) was not linkedto effort,therewas no directincentivefor these laborersto perform theirjobs well, unless carefullymonitored. Consequently,they usually workedthe land closest to the main house for easiest supervision." Next up on the ladderwas the sharecropper.This class of farmworkerexisted only in the South.Cropperstoo hadlittlephysicalcapitalthoughgenerallymore work experience than wage workers.Because of the greaterwork incentives associatedwith getting paid with a proportionof the output,sharecropperswere supervisedless thanwage workers. Once these laborersbeganto accumulatemore agriculturalknow-how,physical capital (throughsavings),andthe trustof the landlord,they mightmove up the ladderto become "truetenants."Tenancytook two basic forms.Sharetenantspaid theirrentto the landlord in the formof a portionof the cropyield, leaving the landlordopen to moralhazardproblems, but less so thanwith croppers.For example,typicallya sharetenantreceivedtwothirds of the output.Under these conditionsthe tenantwould have an incentive to stop workingwhile the valueof his marginalproductstill exceededhis opportunitycost because he only receivedtwo-thirdsof the marginalproductof his labor.Two factorsmitigatedthe stintingof labor:landlordsmonitoredlaborandcompetitionamongprospectivetenantsfor next year's contractsincreasedlabor effort. Cash tenantsand standingrenterspaid the landlorda fixed amountof cashor cropin orderto farma particularplot of landandconsequently received the full value of their marginalproduct.This arrangementreducedthe moralhazardproblemforthe landlord;the only realmonitoringnecessarywas to safeguard the long-runupkeepof the land. The top rungsof the agriculturalladderconsistedof the owning classes, both the small yeomanfarmersand,at the verytop, plantationowners.Afterhavingaccumulatedcapital in the lower rungs, it became possible for some tenantsto buy their own plots of land. Indeedby the end of the nineteenthcentury25 percentof black farmoperators(including croppers)owned the land thatthey operated.'2 Though the movement for ex-slaves to croppersand tenantswas no doubt welfaredecriedthe rise of tenancyin the late nineteenthcentury. enhancing,manycontemporaries The most notablecritic was HenryGeorgewho maintainedthat tenancy,in general,was bad andthatits increasewas subjugatingthe southernlaborer.'3However,when one fully considersthe hierarchyof the tenancyladderone sees thata rise in tenancywould unambiguouslyhavebeen a positivedevelopmentfor those moving from lower rungs.With the help of the new estimateson the numberof croppersin 1900 and 1910 developed here, movementsup and down the southernagriculturalladdercan be assessed better. ESTIMATING SHARECROPPERS The firsttaskin providingthis morecompleteaccountof southernagriculturalworkers is to estimatethe numberof croppersfor the years 1900 and 1910. By assumingthat no largestructuralchanges-for example,mechanization-occurredbetween 1900 and 1920, Mix." 9Alstonand Higgs, "Contractual Contracts,"p. 34. '?Ferleger,"Sharecropping "See the visual spacingof plots in Woofter,Landlord. 12Higgs, Competition. '3George,Progress. AgriculturalChutesand Ladders 467 one can estimatethe numberof croppersin 1900 and 1910 in each of the southernstates basedon estimatingequationsusing countydatafrom 1920.14The estimatorused takesthe formof a regressionequationin whichthe dependentvariableis croppersas a percentage of all sharetenants,includingcroppers.The independentvariablesarethe percentageof all blackfarmers,the percentageof mules,the percentageof all farmseitherless than 19 acres or less than49 acres,the averageacreageof fanns,the valueof landperimprovedacreage, the percentageof improvedacreagein cotton andthe numberof bales of cottonper improved acre (whereappropriate),the percentageof improvedacreagein tobacco(where populationper squaremile, andthe percentageof the populationgreaterthan appropriate), 10 yearsof age thatis illiterate. These independentvariableswere chosen as predictorsof the numberof sharecroppers in a particularregionbecausethese factorshave been foundby numerousscholarsto be It is well knownthatblackswere stronglyassociatedwith the existenceof sharecroppers. Also, recentworkhas showna strongpositivecorrelation sharecroppers. disproportionately betweencroppersandmuleuse in southemagriculturedue to the inherentprincipal-agent To capturethe variationsin farmsize threevariablesareincluded:percentage problem.15 of fannsunder19 acres,percentageof farmsbetween20 and49 acres,andaveragenumber of acres per farm.Cropperplots tendedto be relativelysmallerthan sharetenantplots; thereforean inverserelationbetweensize of farmandthe prevalenceof sharecroppersis expected. The value of improvedacresprovidesa measureof how intensivelyan areais fanned;the higherthe landvalue,themoreintensivelyit will be farmedand hence a landlord would want to hire more croppers.Next, the crop variables(percentageof acres in cotton,yield peracre,andpercentageof acresof tobacco)shouldbe positively associated withcroppers.Becausecropperswereassociatedwiththe laborintensivecashcrops,cotton andtobacco,thereshouldbe a positivecorrelationbetweencottonandtobaccoacreageand yields. The higherthe populationdensityin an area,the morevaluablethe land shouldbe relativeto labor.As a resulta greaterintensityof farmingis expectedand(as withthe value of improvedacresvariable)a positivesign forthis variableis predicted.Finally,a positive relationshipbetweencroppersandthepercentageof the populationover 10 who are illiterate is expected;illiteracyis a proxy for humancapital. The estimatedcoefficientsfrom each state equationare used in conjunctionwith the values of the same independentvariablesin 1900 and 1910 to producefor each state, estimatesof the percentageof sharetenantswho were croppersin those years,andhence of the absolutenumbersof croppers,becausethe census enumeratedthe numberof share tenantsin those years. The census enumeratedcroppersin 1920 in 16 states:Alabama, Arkansas,Delaware,Florida,Georgia,Kentucky,Louisiana,Maryland,Mississippi,North Carolina, Oklahoma,South Carolina,Tennessee,Texas, Virginia,and West Virginia. Fifteenequationswereestimatedcombiningthe statesof DelawareandMarylandbecause Delawarecontainsonly threecounties.A randomsampleof the largerof eitherone-fourth of the countiesor 25 countiesin each statewas selected. The estimationprocedurewas OLS and the specified functionalformwas linear. The "fits"of the equations,as measuredby R2,rangedfroma high of 0.82 in Georgia the fits in generalwere quitegood. An Fortunately to a low of 0.41 in Maryland/Delaware. boomfollowingit impactedsouthernagricul"No doubtWorldWarI andthe sustainedagricultural turallabormarkets.Becausetimes were good for laborand ownerswe would expectthatlaborascendedthe ladderandin usingthe 1920censusas ourbaseline,laborhadnot yet descendedthe ladder ourestimatingequationmostlikely pricesin July 1920.Consequently followingthebustin agricultural will resultin us overestimatingthe numberof tenantsin 1900 and 1910. This is good becausewe are tryingto bias the case againstan increasein "truetenants." "Note"and"WhyWasthe Mule." "5KauffTman, Alston and Kauffman 468 TABLEI ESTIMATED NUMBER OF CROPPERS State Alabama Arkansas Delaware Florida Georgia Kentucky Louisiana Maryland Mississippi North Carolina Oklahoma South Carolina Tennessee Texas Virginia West Virginia 1900 1910 1920 24,233 18,223 454 1,715 42,087 23,317 20,406 1,522 18,961 9,748 2,845 25,168 28,597 27,287 6,781 3,315 35,997 27,719 352 2,694 64,160 26,869 27,536 1,569 55,493 16,725 7,167 30,677 36,499 61,029 8,476 2,698 47,897 47,665 208 4,291 97,497 29,450 31,309 1,459 86,859 39,939 8,926 43,789 38,078 68,381 13,715 1,628 1930 65,134 75,034 225 4,816 100,854 30,250 49,428 1,646 135,293 69,091 21,055 48,939 50,304 105,122 17,253 1,834 1940 41,370 47,666 225 3,407 60,934 23,533 39,631 1,644 125,483 60,300 4,952 33,474 41,490 39,821 16,238 1,123 1950 1959 24,811 28,576 73 1,662 41,194 16,391 15,927 1,107 74,617 57,457 1,915 29,478 28,039 14,863 10,030 625 8,582 7,792 50 249 10,412 7,197 4,238 611 22,339 26,000 566 10,775 13,141 3,344 5,515 226 Notes and Sources: The number of croppers in 1900 and 1910 were estimated as indicated in the text; data, used in the estimating equation, on share tenants, share-cash tenants (1920 only), sharecroppers (1920), black farners, farm operators,farms 3-10 acres, 10-19 acres, and 20-49 acres, improved acres, average acreage per farm, value land per improved acre, cotton acreage, bales of cotton, and tobacco acreage are contained in U.S. Bureau of the Census, Thirteenth Census, Vol. 5, Agriculture, various tables, TwelfthCensus, Vol. 5, Agriculture,various tables, and US. Census ofAgriculture: 1920, Vol. 6, pt. 2, county tables I and 4. Data, used in the estimatingequation, on population per square mile and percentage of population greaterthan 10 years of age illiterateare contained in ibid., ThirteenthCensus, Vol. 1, Population, and US. Census of Population: 1920, Vol. 1. The number of croppers in 1920 through 1959 contained in ibid., U.S. of Census ofAgriculture: 1959, Vol. 1, pts. 22-37, state table 3. even more encouraging fact is that the fits were better in those states that also had relatively larger numbers of croppers. In Alabama, Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, and Virginia the R2 exceeded 0.60.16 The coefficients of the structuralequations are presented in the Appendix.'7 Table 1 presents the estimates of the number of croppers by state for 1900 and 1910, along with the enumerated number of croppers for the five censuses between 1920 and 1959.18Tables 2 and 3 show the census-defined percentage of tenancy for the census years was detectedin some of the "1Inthe estimationof the OLS regressionmodels,heteroskedasticity models using the likelihoodratiotest, as mightbe expectedwith such cross-sectionaldatasets. The In addition,an F-test was estimatesgivenareproperlyweightedto accountfor the heteroskedasticity. regressors conductedon eachof theregressionsto verifythevalidityof includingall of the independent was the F-statisticnot significantat the 5 percentlevel; that and in only one (Maryland/Delaware) particularF-statisticwas significantat the 10 percentlevel. is muchroomforfurtherresearchin thisarea.Forinstance,a studyusingmanuscriptcensus "7There datato estimatecropperswouldprovidegreaterdegreesof freedomwhenestimatingregressionequations. '8Oneway to test the validityof the 1900 and 1910 estimatesis to use the estimatingequations(in the Appendix)to estimatethenumberof croppersin 1930, a yearthatthe censusactuallyenumerated thenumberof croppers.Intuitivelythiswouldseemto be a goodtestof the estimates,however,because highratesof farmforeclosuresin the twenbreakin the formof extraordinarily therewas a structural ties, the estimatesfor 1930 may be off. Inthe 1920s, earningsrelativeto expectedearningswerelow This impliesthatsometenantswould fall downa rungon the ladder (Alston,"FannForeclosures"). 469 AgriculturalChutesand Ladders TABLE2 CENSUS-DEFINEDTENANTSAS A PERCENTAGEOF ALL FARMOPERATORS State 1900 1910 South Carolina Tennessee Texas Virginia West Virginia South Non-South 57.7 45.4 50.3 26.5 59.9 32.8 58.0 33.6 62.4 41.4 43.8 61.1 40.6 50.0 30.7 21.8 47.0 25.5 60.2 50.0 41.9 26.7 65.6 33.9 55.3 29.5 66.1 42.3 54.8 63.0 41.1 52.6 26.5 20.5 49.6 25.1 Illinois Iowa Kansas Nebraska South Dakota 39.3 34.9 35.2 36.9 21.8 41.4 37.8 36.8 38.1 24.8 Alabama Arkansas Delaware Florida Georgia Kentucky Louisiana Maryland Mississippi North Carolina Oklahoma 1920 57.9 51.3 39.3 25.3 66.6 33.4 57.1 28.9 66.1 43.5 51.0 64.5 41.1 53.3 25.6 16.2 49.6 26.7 1930 64.7 63.0 33.8 28.4 68.2 35.9 66.6 26.5 72.2 49.2 61.5 65.1 46.2 60.9 28.1 18.6 55.5 28.6 1940 1950 1959 58.8 53.3 32.6 25.2 60.1 33.1 59.4 26.1 66.2 44.4 54.4 56.1 40.3 48.9 26.9 22.7 48.2 29.6 41.4 37.6 17.0 12.3 42.8 22.5 39.6 18.6 51.6 38.3 31.4 45.3 29.2 30.4 17.1 10.3 34.1 19.8 27.5 23.6 12.4 5.5 24.1 16.1 24.1 15.3 31.6 30.4 18.9 30.8 19.2 20.6 14.4 6.4 22.3 17.9 43.1 47.6 44.9 52.8 53.0 34.6 38.2 29.9 38.9 30.4 33.5 35.0 24.9 34.7 26.1 SelectedMidwesternStates 42.7 41.7 40.4 42.9 34.9 43.1 47.3 42.4 47.1 44.6 Source:U.S. Bureauof the Census, U.S. CensusofAgriculture.1959, Vol 1, pts. 22-37, statetable 3, and ThirteenthCensus,Vol. 5, Agriculture,statetable30. 1900 to 1959 andestimatesof "truetenancy,"respectively.To determinethe sensitivityof the estimatesof "truetenancy"to the estimatesof the numberof croppers,"truetenancy" was estimatedunderthe assumptionthatthe estimatesof cropperscould be off by plus or minus5 percent.In most statesthe effecton "truetenancy"is 1 percentor less. Theserange estimatesarepresentedin Table4. The data presentedenhanceour understandingof the growth of tenancy in the early twentiethcentury.First,disaggregationto the state level (Table2) shows thattenancy,as defined by the census, increasedconsistentlyfrom 1900 to 1930 in 7 of the 15 southern as would some owners fall to the tenantrung.But, becausetherewere more tenantsthan owners, underestimation of croppersis to be expected.Despitethe bias the estimatesare in the ballpark.The 1930 censusenumerated 776,278 croppersin the 16 southernstatesandthe modelpredicted679,674; so themodelunderestimated thenumberof croppersby 12 percent,just as supposed.To test thatit was a structural break(the unusuallyhigh numberof farmforeclosuresduringthe late 1920s) thatcaused croppersand the modelto underestimnate thenumberof croppersin 1930,thenumberof underestimated the percentageof farmforeclosuresduringthe period 1926 to 1929 in each statewere correlatedand showed a positive correlationof 0.42. As an additionaltest, a simpleOLS regressionwas runof the The resultsshow percentageof farmforeclosureson theamountof croppersthatwere underestimated. that a 1 percent increasein farmforeclosuresin each state led to 13,257 additionalcroppers(the variableis significantat 10 percentandthe R2is 0. 17). Referencesto the fann foreclosuredataare in Alston, "FarmForeclosures." Alston and Kauffman 470 TABLE3 "TRUETENANCY"- CENSUS-DEFINEDTENANTSMINUS CROPPERS AS A PERCENTAGEOF ALL FARMOPERATORSMINUS CROPPERS State 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1959 Alabama Arkansas Delaware Florida Georgia Kentucky Louisiana Maryland Mississippi NorthCarolina Oklahoma SouthCarolina Tennessee Texas Virginia West Virginia South 52.6 39.2 47.9 23.3 50.6 25.4 49.0 31.3 58.9 38.7 74.4 53.6 31.9 45.5 27.8 19.0 38.9 53.9 42.5 39.9 22.5 55.9 26.3 42.0 27.1 57.6 38.2 53.0 55.3 30.8 44.4 22.9 18.2 40.9 48.2 38.7 38.0 18.9 51.3 25.2 44.2 26.7 50.2 33.7 48.6 54.0 30.7 44.6 19.7 14.6 38.9 52.7 46.4 32.2 22.0 47.5 26.9 51.9 23.6 50.9 32.5 57.0 49.4 32.4 50.3 20.0 16.7 41.5 49.8 40.1 30.8 20.8 44.4 26.3 44.9 23.1 40.7 29.0 53.1 42.0 28.3 43.5 19.5 21.9 36.8 33.6 26.0 16.2 9.6 27.8 16.2 30.7 16.0 31.2 23.0 30.5 30.7 19.5 27.1 11.2 9.6 24.2 21.7 16.7 11.5 5.0 15.9 11.9 19.6 13.2 18.4 19.4 18.4 19.8 11.8 19.4 9.3 5.9 16.1 Source: See Tables 1 and 2. states. Based on our estimatesof "truetenancy"(Table3), the percentageof tenancydid not increasein any of the southernstates."Truetenancy"relativeto census-definedtenancy fell the most in those statesincreasingthe productionof laborintensivecrops of cotton or increase,contractorshave an incentiveto negotiatecropper tobacco.As laborrequirements contractsinsteadof wage contractsin orderto reducelaborsupervisioncosts.19For example, between1900 and 1920 cottonacreageexpandedfrom240,678 to 2,732,962 in Oklahoma and from 6,960,367 to 11,522,537in Texas andtobaccoacreagein North Carolina increasedfrom203,023 to 459,011. Overthe sameperiodthe numberof estimatedcroppers increasedover 300 percentin Oklahoma,250 percentin Texas, and 400 percentin North Carolina. Secondly, the new estimatesof "truetenancy"do not changethe historicallyaccepted positive associationbetweentenancyand the South but they do temperthe disparitybetween the South and non-South.The dramaticdecline in tenancy in the South and the South'sconvergencewith the rest of the nationawaitedthe adoptionof mechanizedtechniques in cotton production.Mechanizedtechniquesmake it easier to measurelabor's contributionto the productionprocess,therebyreducingsupervisioncosts andthe incentive for tenant contracts.20 Mechanizationfurtherincreasedthe incentive to adoptwage contractsby increasingunemployment.21 Thirdly,comparingour estimatesof "truetenancy"in the southernstates with censusdefinedtenancyin certainMidwesternstatesin the earlytwentiethcenturycasts doubton the hypothesisthattenancywas responsibleforthe low standardof living of a largeproportion of agricultural workersin the South.Nearly one-halfof the southernstateshad levels of "truetenancy"below those of Illinois,Iowa,Kansas,Nebraska,and SouthDakota.The remainingdiscrepanciesbetween tenancyin certainsouthernstates, primarilythe states 19Alston,"TenureChoice";Alston and Higgs, "Contractual Mix";and Kauffman,"WhyWas the Mule." 20Alston,"TenureChoice." 21Alstonand Ferrie,"Paternalism." AgriculturalChutesand Ladders 471 TABLE4 RANGEESTIMATESOF "TRUETENANCY"ASSUMINGA ? 5 PERCENTERRORIN THE ESTIMATEDNUMBEROF CROPPERS State Alabama Arkansas Delaware Florida Georgia Kentucky Louisiana Maryland Mississippi North Carolina Oklahoma SouthCarolina Tennessee Texas Virginia West Virginia 1900 52.3 - 52.9 38.9 - 39.6 47.8 -48.0 23.1 - 23.5 50.1-51.2 25.0-25.8 48.4-49.5 31.2-31.4 58.7- 59.1 38.6 - 38.9 74.4-74.5 53.1 -54.0 31.4-32.4 45.2 -45.7 27.7- 28.0 18.8-19.1 1910 53.5 - 54.3 42.1 - 43.0 39.8 -40.0 22.3 - 22.7 55.3 - 56.5 25.8 -26.7 41.1 -42.9 27.0- 27.3 57.0 - 58.1 38.0- 38.4 52.9- 53.1 54.8 - 55.7 30.2 - 31.4 44.0-44.9 22.7 - 23.1 18.1- 18.4 Source:See Tables 1 and2. specializingin cotton,andthe Midwesternstatesis most likely accountedfor by the prevalence of plantationsin the South.Theseresultsunderscorethe importanceof understanding the distinctionbetween croppersand tenants.Nevertheless, despite the increase in the numberof croppersin the earlypartof the twentiethcentury,it is unlikelythatthe cropper rungwas responsiblefor the povertyof the individuals.But rather,furtherresearchneeds to be done on the institutionalconstraintson southerndevelopmentin the earlytwentieth politicalpowerof southerncongresscentury.One suchconstraintwas the disproportionate men thatresultedin governmentpolicies thathinderededucationand fosteredracism.22 CONCLUSIONS in the 16 southernstates in 1900 and This articleestimatesthe numberof sharecroppers 1910 in order to advance our understandingof the growth and decline of agricultural tenancy in the twentiethcentury.Estimatesof "truetenancy"are constructedby treating as wage laborers.Thesealterthe traditionalhistoricalaccountof the growth sharecroppers of tenancyby showingthatmuchof the growthof the census-definedtenantswas the result workers of sharecroppers increasing.From1900to 1920, for instance,southernagricultural was increase overall the in droves; to sharecropper worker the ladder from wage ascended 306,351 whereasthe numberof wage workersactuallydeclinedby 166,414.23At the upper rungs of the ladderthere was also ascension to the tenantand owner categoriesthough fewer rose to the tenantthan owner rung.These resultspoint to the need for furtherresearchon the welfareimplicationsof ascendingand descendingthe agriculturalladderin the earlytwentiethcentury.These new estimatesof croppersfor 1900 and 1910 are a key first step in determininghow well farmersin this periodfared. 22Ibid.For a discussion of the low levels of educationin the South, particularlyfor blacks, see Margo,Race. 23Thesenumbersarederivedfromwage-workerdatacontainedin the U.S. Bureauof the Census, chap. 2, table 15, ThirteenthCensus, Vol. 4, Fourteenth Census, Vol. 4, Population-Occupation, table2, and TwelfthCensus,Occupation,table32. Population-Occupation, Alston and Kauffman 472 N R? Cotton Value Average Constant per PercentagePercentage Population PercentagePercentage Percentage Percentage yield Percentage< acre acres per 19 black mules cotton 20-49 tobacco mile illiterate 25 0.68 -0.12 -0.12 (134.1) 0.83AL -0.52 0.23 -0.008 (0.93) -1.88 1.62 0.20 (0.18) (0.80) (0.62) (0.35) (0.18)(0.35)(0.001) -0.001319.48 (0.002) (0.007) -0.0006 25 0.75 -0.38 0.04 1.05 -1.89 1.46AR 0.17 0.72 0.01 -0.006 -2.29 (0.39) (0.51) (1.20) (10.31) (0.64)(0.27)(0.006) -0.003 (0.32) (0.006) (0.006) Appendi 2.13 0.68 0.27 25 0.70 -0.18 0.23 -0.78 1.12 -0.74FL 0.27 (10.38) (1.72) (0.60) (0.39) (0.23) (5.02) (0.30) (0.28) (0.002) 0.0008 0.0007 0.0008 (0.0007) (0.0009) Estimati -0.53 0.005 (0.31) 0.85 1.48GA 0.13 -80.85 -0.25 -0.49 -0.84 39 0.82 (0.13) (0.36) (5.87) (0.27) (0.20) (0.40) (0.15) -0.004-0.74 (0.002) (0.002) -0.0005 (0.0009) 0.23 -0.03 -0.001 1.07 30 0.60 (1.11) (0.19) (0.09) (0.0008) 1.01 1.43 -0.05KY -0.06 (0.84) (0.83) (0.46) 0.001 (0.002) -0.0008 (0.0008) Equation Each -0.12 -0.03 -0.003-0.002 -0.25 0.42 0.70LA 25 0.81 -0.07 0.001 (0.32) 0.29 (0.20) (0.12) (0.34) (0.18) (0.16) (0.12) 0.026 (0.001) (0.0008) (0.0008) 25 0.76 0.23 -0.09 (0.41)(0.35)(0.004) 0.001 State 0.53MS 0.15 0.04 -1.72 0.49 0.49 (0.37) (0.92) (10.12) (0.63) (0.49) (0.002) (0.005) -0.0005 0.0002 -0.05 (1.79) -0.12 -1.56 27 0.41 (0.21) (0.11) 0.00007 (0.00004) 1.21 0.35 -0.30 0.50 (0.35) (0.40) (0.99) -0.002 0.002 (0.001) (0.002) MD&DE Agricultural Chutes and Ladders N R 2 Note: See text for 473 Value Average Constant per Percentage Percentage Percentage Percentage Population Percentage Percentage Percentage yield < acre acres per 19 black mules cotton 20-49 illiterate mile tobacco Cotton description of 25 0.48 0.13 0.14 -0.41 -1.11 0.17 NC 0.57 -0.23 -0.14 0.49 (0.89) (0.64) (0.37) (0.65) (1.11) (0.19) (0.23)(0.23)(0.002) -0.002 0.007 -0.002 (0.005) (0.005) variables and data used. 0.21 0.05 OK 0.07 -0.02 0.12 0.02 0.02 26 0.67 (0.09) (0.14) (0.70) (0.12) (0.06) (0.04) (0.23) -0.005 -0.0005 0.0003 (0.0009) (0.0004) 0.00007 (0.00004) Numbers in 25 0.82 1.46 0.15 -0.63SC APPENDIX -0.41 0.29 -0.27 0.33 -1.50 1.88 -0.0040.002 (0.32) (0.85) (0.47) (0.68) (0.44) (0.90) (0.78)(0.18)(0.002) parentheses (0.002) (0.005) 0.0009 are standard 25 0.69 -0.57 0.02 0.21 TN TABLE-Continu -0.23 0.25 1.53 1.00 0.74 0.002 0.002 (0.84) (1.07) (0.86) (1.13) (2.24) 0.002 errors. (0.40)(0.15)(0.002) (0.003) (0.001) 0.0004 (0.003) 0.26 0.10 0.24 -0.15 -0.19 0.34 0.20 (0.15) (0.21)(0.43) (0.13) (0.13) (0.13) (0.20) 63 0.61 TX 0.0008 -0.0006 0.0005 (0.0009) (0.0007) -0.000004 (0.000003) -0.11 0.42 VA 0.05 0.001 (0.98) -0.24 2.12 -0.12 0.04 -0.25 -0.30 25 0.61 (0.38) (0.24) (0.22) (0.74) (0.87) (0.22) (0.31) (0.001) (0.003) 0.0001 -0.0002 (0.0005) -0.32 -1.50 25 0.42 (4.34) (0.31) (0.16) 0.036 0.0007 (0.0007) 1.30 1.76 -0.10WV -0.89 (0.86) (3.32) (0.85) 0.001 (0.002) (0.001) -0.0009 474 Alston and Kauffman REFERENCES Alston, Lee J. "TenureChoice in SouthernAgriculture,1930-1960." Explorationsin EconomicHistory 18, no. 2 (1981): 211-32. ."FarmForeclosuresin theUnitedStatesduringthe InterwarPeriod."this JOURNAL 43, no. 4 (1983): 885-903. in Agricultural Alston,Lee J., andJosephFerie. "Paternalism Contractsin the U.S. South: inplicationsforthe Growthof the WelfareState."AmericanEconomicReview83, no. 4 (1993): 852-76. 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