Investing in advisors The Investment Advisory Department. Leumi Global Markets Foreign Securities Weekly Review – June 20, 2010 __________________________________________________________________ Major Points Global Bonds U.S.A. • A moderate fall in yields attributed to the disappointing housing starts and number of initial jobless claims as well as the low inflation rate • The consensus among economists is that the Fed will not be changing the interest rate at its forthcoming meeting this Wednesday Euro Zone • Yields rise across the German curve given the lower level of anxiety as to the debt crisis in several Euro Zone countries • The EU assures a comprehensive and transparent inspection as it comes close to publishing the local banks' "stress tests". Currencies • The dollar erodes: the Dollar Index reflects an average weekly 2.1% depreciation of the dollar Fed Contracts • Erosion continues in the underlying yields of Fed contracts Commodities • On the back of the persistent weakness in the dollar, the CRB Index climbs a weekly 2.7% in dollar terms. Equities U.S.A. • A second week of price gains • The higher price of oil favorably impacts the infrastructure sector The Capital Market Research Department Translated by: the Products Marketing Department Weekly Review 1 Europe • The Dow Stoxx 600 rises for a fourth consecutive week • The EU leaders' agreement to publish stress tests results boosts banking shares Asia-Pacific • The Asia Pacific MSCI records the best performance since December • Taiwan Semiconductor's outlook supports the semiconductors sector Written by: • Raphael Evron – Chief Strategist, Currencies and Commodities • Eyal Kaufman – Foreign securities' analyst - equities • Itamar Dar – Foreign securities' analyst - bonds Einat Skornik Capital Markets Research Department This document has been prepared reliant solely on information freely available to the public. Apart from instances indicated otherwise, the data has been taken from Bloomberg, Magama, Graphit and other systems. No examination has been made to verify the information used as the basis for this document. This document should not be regarded as a recommendation or as a substitute to the independent opinion of the reader or as a proposal or invitation to receive offers, or consultation – whether in general or considering the data and the special needs of each reader – for purchasing and/or executing investments and/or orders or transactions whatsoever. The information may contain errors and may be subject to market and other changes. Furthermore, there may be significant deviations between the assessments expressed here and actual results. The bank does not undertake to inform readers in any manner whatsoever of the aforementioned changes, either in advance or post facto. The bank and/or its subsidiaries and/or its affiliated companies and/or holders of controlling interest and/or minority shareholders, whoever they may be, may from time to time have an interest in the information presented below, including in the financial assets presented therein. This document should not be used for any purpose, such as its distribution to a third-party, without the writer's prior consent. This publication should not be considered a substitute for the aforementioned investment advice which should be given according to each client's specific needs. The furnishing of information and the providing of investment advice shall be given solely in accordance with the directives appearing in bulletin 175/05. The Capital Market Research Department Tel: 03-5147397 [email protected] The Capital Market Research Department Translated by: the Products Marketing Department Weekly Review 2 Macro-Economic Developments U.S.A. Import Prices Index (May) -0.6% New York Manufacturing Index (June) 19.57 points Net Acquisitions of US Government $83 bn bonds by Foreigners (April) Producers Prices Index (May) -0.3% Housing Starts (May) 593,000, annualized Building Permits (May) 574,000, annualized Industrial production (May) 1.2% Capacity Utilization (May) 74.7% CPI (May) -0.2% The annualized change in the index is +8.6% An eleventh consecutive month of rise in the index Compared to forecasts of: $70 billion The annualized change in the index is +5.3% A 10% contraction versus April A 5.9% contraction versus April Compared to forecasts of 0.9% Reaching the highest level since October 2008 A +0.1% change in the core index, an annualized change of +2% Leading Indicators Index (May) 0.4% In line with expectations Philadelphia Business Index (June) 8 points Fell to its lowest level since August 2009 This week the following data will be published: Existing and New Home Sales as well as Durable Product Orders in May, the University of Michigan's Consumer Confidence Index in June (final data ) and the Fed's Interest Rate Decision. Private Consumption and the Change in First Quarter GDP Growth (final data). Europe Euro Zone –Industrial Production (April) Euro Zone – ZEW Consumer Sentiment (June) Euro Zone – CPI (May) Britain – CPI (April) Britain – Retail Sales (May) Britain – Jobless Rate (April) 0.8% 18.8 points 0.1% 0.2% 0.6% The annualized change in the index is: 9.5% Considerably lower than expectations of a 39 reading The annualized change in the index is: 1.6% The annualized change in the index is: 3.4% The annualized change in the index is: 2.2% 7.9% Remained practically unchanged during the last 3 months This week the following data will be published: In the Euro Zone – Consumer Confidence Index, Purchasing Managers Indexes for the Services and Manufacturing Sectors in June and Industrial Orders in April. In Britain – Change in Home Prices as per Rightmove. Asia Pacific Japan – Industrial Production (April) 1.3%, final The annualized change in the index is: 25.9% Japan – Interest Rate Decision 0.1% No change Japan – Tertiary Industrial Index 2.1% Compared to -3.0% in the previous month (April) India – Wholesale Prices Index (May) 10.1% Exceeded expectations of 9.6% This week the following data will be published: In Australia – the Leading Indicators Index in April and the Change in First Quarter 2010 GDP. In Japan – Industrial Activity Index and Retail Trade in May as well as the June CPI. The Capital Market Research Department Translated by: the Products Marketing Department Weekly Review 3 Global Government Bonds US This week yields across the curve fell moderately. The disappointment from Housing Starts and Building Permits and additional growth in the number of Initial Jobless Claims accompanied by low inflation resulted in the contraction in yields, despite the price gains in key equity indexes. Summing up the week the yield of 2-year bonds to redemption fell 2 b.p. to 0.71%. The yield of 10 year bonds to redemption shed 1 b.p. to 3.22%. The macro data released in recent months were mostly a favorable surprise to economists and investors. However, last week the trend reversed. A predominant share of the data released was disappointing supporting a trend of decline in yields. For example, the number of initial jobless claims last month totaled 472,000 versus expectations of only 450,000. Housing starts in May fell 10% in May, the sharpest monthly contraction since March 2009 and the Philadelphia Business Index in June plummeted to a reading of 8. To this one should also add the absence of signs of inflation pressures in the form of the -0.2% contraction in the May CPI, the steepest decline recorded since December 2008. This economic reality confirms the assumption that the Fed will continue to keep a low interest rate level over time. Economists are of the same opinion that the Fed will keep a nil interest rate also after its next meeting this Wednesday and most also believe that Fed officials will continue to stick to their commitment "to keep a low interest rate over an extended period of time". Hence, it was no surprise that also this week, yields contracted across the curve. The fact that this was only moderate is attributed to the fact that yields were low from the start and to the weekly price gains in leading equity indexes in the US, attributed to concerns dissipating regarding the debt crisis' consequences in Euro Zone countries. In our opinion, the present yield level across the curve is low and does not incorporate considerable capital gains potential. After neutralizing inflation expectations incorporated in the capital market, the forecasted real yield for the investor is close to zero. This level is mainly the consequence of investors' fears that recent developments in Europe will result in the global economy falling into a repeated recession and that US economic recovery will find it difficult to continue without the support of the public sector. According to this concept after the effects of the various relief programs, the US economy is expected to falter and to grow at a slow pace. Given the uncertainty in markets, we recommend that investors with a conservative outlook remain at the very short end of the curve in order not to experience capital losses should our assessment of an upward correction in short range yields materialize. The rise in yields will be supported by the ongoing improvement in macro data and the large scale issuances. Next week, the US Treasury is expected to issue 3 series of bonds totaling $108 bn for: 2, 5 and 7 years. While this is $5 billion lower than the series of issuances of these same bonds last month, the scale of issuance continues to be large. In our opinion, the forecasted rise in yields will be partially offset by the absence of inflation pressures and the Fed's policy of keeping a low interest rate. Inflation expectations incorporated in CPI-linked bonds (TIPS) are 0.69% for short term ranges (0.58% last week) and 2.02% for long term issues (1.99% last week). Also after the rise in inflation expectations last week we prefer index linked bonds over unlinked ones. Concerning corporate bonds, we continue to prefer bonds of a short-medium duration. The risk premium of investment grade corporate bonds over government bonds contracted during the week by 5 b.p. to 208 b.p., reflecting an average yield to redemption of 4.53%. The Capital Market Research Department Translated by: the Products Marketing Department Weekly Review 4 US Government Bonds ECB bonds Change in base Change in base Yield points Yield points Years A A A A week Current week month Weekly Monthly Current month Weekly Monthly to ago ago ago ago maturity 0.71% 0.73% 0.76% -1.6 -5.4 0.58% 0.46% 0.51% 11.7 6.9 2 2.01% 2.03% 2.02% -1.7 -1.0 1.60% 1.46% 1.52% 14.4 8.1 5 3.22% 3.23% 3.24% -1.5 -1.8 2.73% 2.57% 2.67% 16.3 6.3 10 The Capital Market Research Department Translated by: the Products Marketing Department Weekly Review 5 The Euro Zone A week of rising yields across the German government yield curve. The lower level of anxiety regarding Europe's debt crisis, the Spanish government's successful bond issuance and the price gains in key equity indexes on the continent supported the weekly trading trend. The German Government's two year bonds added 12 b.p. to their yield to 0.58%. The 10-year bond yield rose 16 base points to 2.73%. Last week the level of investors' anxiety and fears fell as to the consequences of the Euro Zone countries' debt crisis. At the same time investors' level of confidence in the ability of at least some peripheral countries in the Euro Zone to repay their debt increased. For example, the Spanish government enjoyed relative success in its issuance of bonds totaling $3.5 bn last week. Contributing to the calming down of markets was also the EU's announcement that it plans to soon publish the "stress results" it is conducting at European financial institutions. This move is being backed by leaders of Germany and France that assure full transparency in publishing the results and the inspection of each financial institution on its own right. As a result leading equity indexes on the continent recorded price gains, yields across the German government curve rose and the weekly risk premium of Italian and Spanish 10 year bonds fell compared to the German bond to a level of 124 and 186, respectively. Also after the relatively steep rise in yields last week, we believe that conservative investors interested in the bonds of Euro Zone governments with small deficits particularly Germany, should shorten durations as far as possible given that the level of yields across the curve remains low. In our opinion, at this very low level of yields, the T-Bills alternative is preferable over an investment in the German government's short term bonds. In contrast, in terms of the Euro Zone's peripheral countries' bonds, one should not negate the possibility of Greece reaching a state of insolvency. While the relief plan succeeded in creating a certain degree of calm in the near term range, in the longer term investors in the Greek government's bonds may be compelled to participate in Greece's effort to minimize their deficit via a debt settlement or shaving of the debt. Hence, risk-averse investors would be wise to distance themselves from the bonds of PIGS countries, expected to suffer from a great deal of volatility also in future. Britain A week of rise in yields across the curve. The yield of two year bonds rose 6 b.p. to 0.88%. year bond yield climbed 8 base points to 3.54%. The 10- The rise in yields was supported by encouraging macro data released in the form of stronger than expected growth in retail sales, growth in the number of loans for home purchases and a lower than forecasted budget deficit recorded in May attributed to growth in tax collections. Yields rose together with the price gains recorded in the local stock exchange. The Capital Market Research Department Translated by: the Products Marketing Department Weekly Review 6 Corporate Bond Yields (Denominated in Dollars and Euros) – Division according to credit rating Yield to Redemption – General Corporate Bonds Years to maturity US USD AAA A BBB B Euro EUR AAA A BBB 2 0.71% 1.65% 1.92% 2.63% 5.96% 0.58% 1.65% 2.25% 2.54% 5 2.01% 3.11% 3.49% 4.12% 7.91% 1.60% 2.71% 3.23% 3.64% 10 3.22% 4.44% 4.99% 5.45% 9.62% 2.73% 3.60% 4.32% 4.85% The Yield Gap with Government Bonds in Base Points Years to maturity US USD AAA A BBB B Euro EUR AAA A BBB 2 0.71% 94 121 192 525 0.58% 107 167 196 5 2.01% 110 148 211 590 1.60% 111 163 204 10 3.22% 122 177 223 640 2.73% 87 159 212 The Capital Market Research Department Translated by: the Products Marketing Department Weekly Review 7 Currencies, Interest Rates and Commodities Currencies The Dollar Index (DXY) ended the trading week contracting to an 85.699 level (87.507 last week), which reflects the US dollar depreciating a weekly 2.1% against the currencies' basket during the surveyed period (Euro, Yen, Pound Sterling, Canadian Dollar, Swedish Krona and the Swiss Franc). Since the beginning of the year the dollar strengthened 9.1% against the currencies' basket. The following currencies were conspicuous in global forex trading during the week: the Swiss franc and the Australian dollar which appreciated 3.7% and 2.6% versus the US dollar. The following events were in the background of trading last week: 1. China announces a change in its exchange rate policy. China's Central Bank announced yesterday that given the further improvement in the performance of its economy and the stability enjoyed in China, the Bank will further flex its Yuan exchange rate policy. Analysts view the Bank's announcement as preparation towards the G20 meeting scheduled in Canada in several days time, where more pressure will be placed on the Chinese Authorities to revalue the Yuan. Moreover, the announcement is also a vote of confidence in the global economy which is expected to support global financial markets in the near term. 2. The Euro continues to recover. Strong demand for the Spanish government's bonds and the agreement to publish the results of the European banking system's stress tests in the near future, curbed investors concerns regarding the debt crisis' aggravation. Given the moderated concerns, the euro continued to recover and summing up the week the currency strengthened 2.2% versus the US dollar to a closing level of $1.2385/euro. Nevertheless, apparently the euro's recent appreciation is a technical correction to the euro's trend of weakness that began already in the summer of 2008 when the level was $1.60/euro. 3. Erosion continues in the underlying yields of Fed contracts. October 2010 contracts incorporated an interest rate level of 0.25% (0.25% last week) at the close of weekly trading. The longer dated contracts underlying yields point to erosion continuing and expectations that the Fed will raise the interest rate for the first time only in the second quarter of 2011 (similar to last week's expectations). 4. Commodity currencies strengthen. The ongoing gains in raw material prices also this week benefited commodity currencies, particularly the Australian dollar which strongly appreciated against the US dollar. The following is our 7 day forecast for trading ranges: $/Euro 1.2150-1.2680 (Spot: $1.2385 initial resistance: $1.2450, initial support: $1.2200), JPY/$ 88.00 – 93.00 (Spot: JPY 90.67 initial resistance: JPY 92.50, initial support: JPY 90.00), $/GBP 1.4600 – 1.5000 (Spot: $1.4826 initial resistance: $1.4880, initial support: $1.4680). We believe that in 2010, the dollar's appreciation will likely continue to be supported by the following factors: the underrated value of the dollar compared to its purchasing power currently estimated at 10% vs the euro, the dollar being a currency haven in times of uncertainty and forecasts of preferential macro data. The Capital Market Research Department Translated by: the Products Marketing Department Weekly Review 8 Foreign Currency: Performance since the beginning of the year Foreign Currency: Performance last week Note: Apart from the U.S. dollar, which is the last known representative rate, the aforementioned foreignexchange rates were determined based on the closing prices in New York. In line with the trading trend in global markets, the shekel appreciated a weekly 0.9% against the US dollar. Since the beginning of the year the shekel's depreciation versus the dollar sums up to 1.0%. Trading in options now incorporate a spot rate of NIS/USD 3.8200 relative to the dollar's last representative rate of NIS/USD 3.8140. The Capital Market Research Department Translated by: the Products Marketing Department Weekly Review 9 Fed Contracts Fed contracts (contracts on the monetary interest in the US) for October 2010 now incorporate a yield of 0.25% (0.25% last week). The future six-month dollar LIBOR interest rate for October 2010 is 1.30% (1.31% last week) and the future interest rate specified in euros for the same period is 1.44% (1.43% last week). The spot dollar LIBOR six month interest rate closed at 0.75063% (0.74613% last week). Commodities The CRB Commodities' Index that weighs the prices of 19 different raw substances (energy, precious metals, industrial metals and agricultural goods) rose a weekly 2.7% in dollar terms. Since the beginning of the year, the Commodities' Index eroded an average 7.2%, in dollar terms. The following are the changes in selected components of the index during the surveyed period: Crude oil: Contract prices for delivery in August 2010 rose a weekly 3.9% to $78.30 per barrel. Copper: Contract prices for delivery in September 2010 eroded 0.8% closing trading at $2.90 per pound. Silver contract prices for delivery in September 2010 soared 5.2% to $19.2 per ounce. Gold contract prices for delivery in August 2010 rose 2.3% to $1,258.3 per ounce. In the medium and long term commodity prices will be impacted by the real economy's situation worldwide and also by their usual adverse correlation with the US dollar. An exception to this premise is gold, which in addition to its adverse correlation with the dollar, demand for gold is partially attributed to investors seeking haven as the level of uncertainty accelerates and/or inflation expectations intensify. The Capital Market Research Department Translated by: the Products Marketing Department Weekly Review 10 Equities in global markets USA – a second week of price gains Last week marked the "bulls" second consecutive week of success over the "bears". Among the encouraging macro data found by investors was the Empire Manufacturing Index attesting to ongoing improvement in the New York Manufacturing Sector. Investors preferred to ignore the unfavorable macro data, such as housing starts and building permits. At the beginning of the month the S&P 500 Index's P/E was 15.2, the lowest level reached in the last 12 months so that the feeling is that the equity market's low pricing does not reflect the economic recovery which has driven the positive movement. Summing up the week, the S&P500 Index added 2.4% to its value, the Dow Jones Index added 2.3% and the Nasdaq Index recorded impressive performance adding 2.9% to its value. Notable shares and sectors in the US All sectors rose for a second consecutive week, with the infrastructure sector leading the trend adding 3.9% to its value. The sector's performance is most probably a consequence of the steep climb in the price of oil to $77 per barrel, the highest level reached since the beginning of May. Other sectors recording impressive performance were technology (+3.45) and the industrial sector (+3.2%). On Tuesday, Taiwan Semiconductors (+3.6%) the leading global outsourcing company in the manufacture of semiconductors advised that semiconductor sales will display 30% growth in 2010 and an average 7% between the years 2011 and 2016. Taiwan Semiconductors whose clients include Texas Instruments (+4%) and Qualcomm (+0.9%) represent a leading indicator for the industry so that one can assume that its forecasts are based on data revealing its customers' demand. Also Intel (+3.7%), Teradyne (+12%) and Micro Technology (+12%) added value following the forecast. Caterpillar's share (+9.3%) was conspicuous for the better in the industrial sector when it advised that for the first time in the last two years, sales of bulldozers, diggers and large trucks grew in the first quarter of 2010. Construction companies did not participate in the party this week, suffering from negative sentiment subsequent to the disappointing housing starts and building permits data. Toll Brothers (-4.7%), the largest building company specializing in relatively upscale homes, advised that the amount of advanced payments deposited in the last three weeks is 20% lower than during the same period last year, attributed to the oil leaks in the Gulf of Mexico and the crisis in Europe. Shares of its peer companies KB Home (-5.2%) and D.R. Horton (-4.5%) also recorded price declines. Europe – investors focus on the positive Last week the Dow Stoxx 600 Index rose for a fourth consecutive week when it added 2.4% to its value. Price gains were recorded in all West European markets despite the not too very encouraging news from Britain and Greece. On Monday, the Moody's Credit Rating Agency lowered Greece's credit rating to a "junk" Ba1 rating due to the risks involved in implementing the European relief plan. According to the credit rating agency, the plan cancels all threats of insolvency in the near term, albeit the risks involved in executing the plan are great. In Britain the Organization of Budget Responsibility (OBR) established by the new government cut its growth forecast for the economy to: 2.6% in 2011 versus the previous administration's growth forecast of 3.25%. The FTSE Index added 1.7% to its value and the CAC and DAX indexes recorded positive performance of 3.7% and 2.8%, respectively. Impressive performance was registered in the PIGS countries. The Spanish IBEX Index led the price gains, when it added 4.3% to its value. The Greek ASE Index added 4% and the Portugal PSI20 and the Irish ISEQ Indexes added 3.7% and 2.3% to their value, respectively. The Capital Market Research Department Translated by: the Products Marketing Department Weekly Review 11 All sectors followed by us recorded price gains during the week. The trend was led by the banking sector adding 6% to its value, subsequent to the EU leaders' agreement to publish the banks' stress tests results in an effort to calm down investors' concerns regarding the financial system's stamina. The shares of RBS and Societe General were notable adding 10.9% and 13.4% to their value, respectively. Other prominent shares during the week were BSkyB (+19%), Nokia (-8.6%) and BP (-8.8%). British Sky Broadcasting this week rejected the communications tycoon Rupert Murdoch's bid to acquire shares not yet in his possession in exchange for GBP 7 per share. The company advised that it will support a bid for GBP 8 per share. Nokia, the leading telephone manufacturer in the world, cut back its sales and profit forecasts, among others due to the competition with Apple (+8.1%). BP, the energy company continued its adverse trend for a 9th consecutive week attributed to the oil leak in the Gulf of Mexico. The company advised that it will be cancelling s dividend payouts for the first three quarters of 2010. Furthermore, it established a compensation fund for victims of the tragedy to a total of $20 billion, following the US Administration's pressure on the company. Asia Pacific – the Asia Pacific MSCI Index records the best performance since December Summing up the week the Asia Pacific MSCI Index added 3.3% to its value, which was the best performance recorded since the beginning of December. Leading the gains was Nikkei adding 3% to its value despite the change in Prime Ministers in Japan. Recently the elected Prime Minister cautioned that the state may be facing a debt crisis similar to the one in Greece, should it not deal with the swelling national debt. However, this week Japan's Central Bank advised that it will lend JPY 3 trillion ($33 bn) to banks and financial institutions, via a new 4 year plan intended to strengthen economic recovery in the country. Among the shares that were conspicuous for the better were Nintendo (+15.9%), who launched a palm size video player that displays 3D pictures and Nissan's share (+6.2%) that added to its value following Goldman Sachs' Buy recommendation. In Korea and Taiwan, indexes rose 2.2% and 2.7%, respectively attributed to the optimistic forecasts for the semiconductor industry. The shares of Taiwan Semiconductors and Samsung added +3.3% and 3.1% respectively. In addition, the equity indexes tracking Chinese companies climbed this week. The Xinhua and the Hang Seng added 2% to their value. This was further to last week's optimism following evidence of economic growth continuing in China. In Hong Kong trading, Li & Fung's share (+7%) was conspicuous for the better, one of Wal-Mart's biggest suppliers, following expectations of economic and consumer recovery in the US. Going forward Last week, positive data such as capacity utilization and the Empire Manufacturing Index and unfavorable data such as housing starts and building permits were released in the US. This week investors once again proved that the degree of their succumbing to economic data being published from time to time is also determined by investors' sentiment. It is reasonable to assume that were the data released two weeks ago, when concerns of the European debts crisis was high, more attention would have been given to the negative data. Another example of the connection between succumbing to data and investors' sentiment is the Chinese equity market. Since the beginning of the year the sentiment towards the Chinese market was negative despite data attesting to healthy growth in the economy. During the last two weeks, sentiment towards the Chinese market reversed and it is reasonable to assume that it will continue to improve following the government's announcement of flexing the Yuan's pegging to the dollar. We believe that economic data and corporate data should be analyzed in separate from the sentiment prevailing in the market on one day or another. In our view a correct and consistent analysis will reveal opportunities that may be reflected in assets prices in future. We continue to estimate that negating another stage in the global economic recession, The Capital Market Research Department Translated by: the Products Marketing Department Weekly Review 12 equity prices are relatively low, when considering the global economic situation, particularly in the US. Nevertheless, volatility in equity markets will continue so long as budget and structural problems faced by European countries are not solved. For the time being, we do not expect substantial improvement in this region so that in the near term volatility in equity markets is expected to continue. We continue to recommend risk prone investors to continue to seek investments at opportunity prices, albeit for those fearing capital losses in the near term investors would be wise to distance themselves from this arena at this time. The Capital Market Research Department Translated by: the Products Marketing Department Weekly Review 13 The Capital Market Research Department Translated by: the Products Marketing Department Weekly Review 14
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