337
What Are the Odds?
Gambling Has No Place in
Baseball But Every Move on
the Diamond Is Governed
by the Laws of Chance--The Successful Manager
Is Successful Just So
Far As He Knows
and Accepts
the Odds
By F. C. LANE
G
AMBLING is a great evil, and yet—
When Columbus struck boldly out
into the uncharted Atlantic, he embarked upon one of the greatest gambles
in history. For the stake was a new world,
and he won. The prospector, in the arid
lands of Nevada, gambles the best years
of his life, even life itself, for the prize of
gold which always glitters just beyond his
reach, at the end of the quest. The business man gambles his time and his capital
in the effort to create an industry. The
clerk gambles his youth against his prospects of bettering himself later on. All
success is essentially a gamble.
The
philosopher no doubt, would call life itself
a gamble.
Gambling as it is commonly known, is
a perversion of a perfectly proper thing.
No great advance in any line of endeavor,
is possible without taking risks. The love
of adventure is strong in the dominant
white race and that love of adventure has
made them dominant. Gambling in its
common sense is an evil very true; but
the spirit that lies behind gambling, which
finds an unwholesome outlet in the card
table or the race track, is, in itself, one
of the strongest creative influences in
civilization.
Baseball has maintained an admirable
stand on the gambling evil. Professional
baseball is as free from this withering
taint as it is possible to preserve a game.
It is the cleanest big sport in the world.
And the discussion of baseball odds which
follows is not designed to relate in any
way to this evil. But a study of the
odds of the game is a purely legitimate
one for it is by an accurate weighing of
odds that pennants are won. With a man
on third base and one run needed to win,
the manager debates within his own mind,
the best method of scoring that necessary
run. He takes into consideration the all
round ability of the man at the bat. He
takes into consideration the particular
talent of the opposing pitcher and
A spirited slide. It is impossible to tell what chance any particular
baserunner may have to score. But it is possible to tell the odds on
base runners as a class starting from any given base
catcher. The speed of the man on third is
a vital feature. All these disassociated
details flash through his mind and his calculating faculty is busy contrasting the
various odds. No doubt he is unconscious
of this mental research. But it is going
on just the same in his busy brain, and
when he finally gives the signal for the
play he wishes made, it is only after he
has determined that the odds favor that
particular play.
The plays that go wrong are not, in
themselves, an indication of the Manager's
ability in picking the odds. The hundred
to one shot sometimes wins, the favorite
frequently loses. But that doesn't mean
that the odds were wrong. For the odds
are merely the accumulation of probabilities. And probabilities, as the name itself
suggests, are not certainties.
Many a manager has been panned because a play turned out badly. And yet
he judged the odds correctly, and called
for the proper play. Many a player has
been praised for taking a daring chance
which succeeded. And yet he was guilty
of bad baseball, for the odds were strongly
against that play that he had no right to
take the risk. Odds are frequently upset
by unforseen circumstances, but in the
long run they win. Big life insurance companies gamble on the duration of a man's
life with perfect impunity. Perhaps he
dies within the year, and they lose money
on his particular ease. But in the long
run the great balance runs true. They
know the odds to a mathematical nicety.
In baseball it is impossible to judge
odds with any such hair trigger precision.
In baseball the odds are rough and inaccurate. But the man who knows the
odds and works upon them correctly, will
win out more than half the time and that
ratio is all anyone can expect in a profession where luck plays so many tricky
favors.
Suppose the batter is a crafty waiter
and works the pitcher for a pass. He jogs
merrily to first base. Perhaps his chances
to score look good. But not so fast. Before he scores he has to pass second base
and third. What are his chances of getting even as far as second base? Obviously
this chance depends largely upon how
many men are out at the time. And yet
most of the scoring damage in baseball is
done with men out. In fact I recall a
game at Brooklyn, where the Dodgers with
How Base Runners Advanced from Base to Base
3 b.
1 b.
2 b.
569
Singles . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1554
889
Passes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
176
562
284
84
49
26
1 b. Errors . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
272
Doubles . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
149
13
2 b. Errors . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
21
...
120
Triples . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
——
——
——
1053
2200
1515
This Advance Shown in Percentages of the Odds
1. b.
2 b.
3 b.
%
%
%
Singles . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 100
57.20
36.61
50.53
31.31
Passes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 100
58.33
30.95
1 b. Errors . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 100
100.00
54.77
Doubles . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . —
2 b. Errors . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . —
100.00
61.90
......
Triples . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . —
100.00
H.
358
112
18
94
9
57
——
648
H.
%
23.04
19.93
21.43
34.56
42.86
47.50
B ASEBALL M AGAZINE for A PRIL
338
distance between third base and home
plate is no greater than that between
home plate and first but you won't get
any base runner to believe it. He knows
too much of the hazards in that last lap.
And our records bear out his sorrowful
story.
The thing that counts in base hit or
error is the final punch. And that final
punch is the distance between third base
and home. Every manager would prefer
to have a runner on third rather than first.
But if the runner die there, he is no whit
better off in one case than the other. The
mortality among the base runners is very
great between any two stations, but it is
greatest of all in the final lap.
Of our 562 free passes to first 112, having been tried in the fires of adversity,
finally arrive somewhat out of breath, at
home. This is a scoring percentage of just
a shade under twenty per cent., 19.93 to
be exact. Of our 1,554 singles 358 also
survive the various fatalities of the journey which gives a scoring percentage of
23.04%. Of our 84 errors 18 or 21.43%
materialize into runs.
Of our little army of 2,200 base-runners
who started on scratch at first base, a forlorn remnant of 488 eventually score.
Few battles of the late war show such a
comparative loss of fighting material as
this. So, henceforth, when you see the
opposing team with a runner on first and
a run looks imminent, comfort yourself
with the thought that his chance of scoring
is 22.19% which is some what less than
But third base isn't really anything to one chance in four.
brag about as the man who triples finds
The chances of scoring from second base
to his sorrow. For very frequently he are of course much higher than similar
waits for a fellow batsman to drive him odds from first. We found that 54.77% of
in and waits in vain. Technically the the batters who doubled reached third base.
We now discover that
34.56% of the
men
who
d o u b l e d
finally score.
You may then
figure correctly that the
man
who
makes a twobase hit has
rather m o r e
than
one
c h a n c e in
three of finally scoring.
We also discover that of
the
limited
n u m b e r of
men
who
reached t h e
key stone
sack on err o r s 42.86%
finally score.
A daring act. The baserunner is taking desperate chances in the effort to reach safety.
But the most
no one on base and two batters already
retired, pulled themselves together and
scored eight runs in a single inning. For
such fine distinctions an exhaustive investigation much beyond the scope of our available statistics, would be necessary. An
examination of nearly six hundred bases
on balls reveals the fact that just about
half or 50.53% to be exact, reached second
base.
Our statistics furnished records of 1554
singles. Of these players 889 or 57.20%
reached second base. The percentage of
advance was greater than with the free
passes as we would expect it to be. Many
passes are deliberately given by the
pitcher for a force play at a critical point
in the game. The chance of such a player
advancing on the play is relatively slight.
Our records furnish us dope on but 84
errors which gave a player transportation
to first base. Of these 49 or 58.33%
reached second base. For all practical
purposes the ratio was the same as the
single.
Now the occasions where a player
reaches first other than through a single,
a pass, or an error are slight, of course
excepting extra base hits. Adding our
three departments we find that exactly
2,200 men reached first on a single, pass,
or an error. Of this number 1,222 reached
second base, a percentage of approximately
55.55%.
The next time you visit a ball game
late and note that a player is on first base
you may satisfy yourself that the odds are
a little more than even that he will make
second base.
But even the keystone sack is but onehalf the stormy voyage to home and safety.
Arrived at that difficult corner after the
h e a v y mortality of the
passage from
first and the
s t i l l heavier
mortality
which
killed
off most of the
entrants b e fore they ever
reached first,
what is the
runner's
chance of adv a n c i n g to
third base?
Of the 562
players w h o
reached
first
on a pass 284
or 5 0 . 5 3 %
reached
second. Of this
number
176
arrived in due
time, at third,
a percentage
of 31.31%. In
other words more than two-thirds of the
base-runners who reached first on a pass
died in the stormy trip to third base.
Of the 1,554 players who reached first
on a single 569 or 36.61% arrived at third.
The ratio is higher than that of the passes
just as appeared in the record at second
base.
Of the 84 errors 26 or 30.95% arrived in
due mail, at third. The number is hardly
great enough to give us an accurate line.
But adding all classes we find that of the
2,200 men who started at first base, but
771 finally brought up at third which is
almost exactly 35%.
But we note there are other ways of getting to second base. A double will carry
a man to that good starting place as will
also a particularly bad error.
Our records gave us the inside information on 272 doubles. Of these 149 or
54.77%, reached third base. In other
words a player who doubles has just about
as much chance of making third, as has
the player who singled to make second
base.
Our records also furnished us with dope
on 21 two-base errors. Of these 13 or
61.9% reached third. The number is not
great enough to give us a fair basis for
computation. Adding all possible entries
from second base those who reached there
after making a single, or from a. pass, no
less than those who doubled, we find that
of 1,515 runners starting from second base,
933 or 61.58% reached third.
B ASEBALL M AGAZINE for A PRIL
339
curious twist of the odds is in the case 57.20% of the time, he will reach third
36.61% of the time. He will score 23.04%
of the men who triple.
of
the time.
A three-bagger is a healthy wallop. It
The batter who doubled will reach third
will sweep the bases just as clean as a
home-run.
But the batter
who makes the home-run is
also sure to score.
The man who triples however, still finds himself a long
ways from home. And there
is a curious fatality about
triples which kills many possible runs. A three-bagger in
its very nature, is a hit to
the deep outfield. The runner who rounds third base is
headed directly away from
the throw in. He knows that
a relay is usually necessary to
Another spirited sliding scene. The runs are what count in baseball and a run is the
catch him at the plate. He
mere act of circling the bases. This particular runner wants to "get there"
knows that outfielders frequently throw wild when in a hurry and base 54.77% of the time. His scoring per- the journey from first base to second.
that infielders often butter finger the re- centage will be 34.56.
There was a reason. Many men were
layed throw. He also is aware of the
The man who triples scores 47.5% of the cut down in the attempt to steal second.
catcher's tendency to misplay the ball and time.
Third is stolen much less frequently, and
he therefore takes desperate chances that
Without paying any attention as to how the accompanying hazards are greatly
he wouldn't take in nearing any other of they arrived at the various bases the odds reduced.
the bases. Furthermore, every batter likes of scoring from first, second and third, are
Surviving all fatalities however, we find
to hit a homer and if he believes there is roughly as follow: from first base, a thin regiment of runners assembled at
any legitimate chance of stretching his 22.19%; from second, 42.77%; from third, third base. These men are also reinforced
hit into a homer he is likely to take that 61.54%.
The odds are strangely sug- by a limited number of healthy sluggers
chance. It follows that many a good gestive. When the batter stands at the who have tripled. Altogether they total
triple is spoiled by trying to stretch it into plate facing the pitcher his chance of 1,053.
Of this number 61.54% finally
a home run. And the chances of scoring reaching first is perhaps one in three. score. In fact the odds of advancing from
are materially decreased.
Furthermore, Surely it is hardly more, allowing for all third to home are almost identically the
when a batter has tripled, the pitcher im- known methods of transit to that same as the odds of advancing from second
mediately tightens up and exhausts all his desired haven. Arriving there, he finds to third.
arts to keep that man from scoring. And that his chance of ultimately scoring is
And in each case the number involved
the infield ably abets him in this effort. approximately 20 per cent. And the odds is sufficient to give us a very fair estimate.
Whence it follows that of the batters who increase roughly 20 per cent. for each base 2200, 1515, 1053 are all relatively big
tripled according to our records, rather that he advances on his journey, so that numbers. The great law of probabilities
less than half or 47.5% eventually scored. when he arrives at third if he ever does, assures us that the story they tell is apNow at a game when you see a runner he has a scoring chance of 61.54%.
proximately accurate. Rightly used such
on third don't think he is within easy
One more angle of the dope and we knowledge is not only legitimate but usereach of home plate. He looks to be but will cheerfully leave the odds for the bugs ful. We do not need to remind anyone
the odds tell us that between that station to chew over at their will. In the statis- that such a use does not involve the exand the dustly slab by the batter's box, tics at our disposal 2,200 base runners change of dollars and cents with, a cheap
there is a great gulf fixed. In brief all attempted to advance from first base to baseball gambler in a grandstand seat.
the men who reach third base either second. The percentage of those who sucOn every play, in every act of the
through the medium of a single, double, ceeded was 55.55%.
diamond, the spectator sees, unfolding betriple or what not total in our records a
This small army at second base was re- fore his very eyes, the workings of the
small army of 1,053. Of this regiment
inforced by other players who doubled as great law of probabilities. The runner
648 finally score a percentage of 61.54.
well as by a few who reached the key- attempts to steal second. He makes it in
When you see a runner on third, then, you
stone sack on a two ply error. Altogether a cloud of dust. Again he tried and loses.
may figure that his chance of scoring is
our dope supplies us with a compact army Individual games upset the balance temslightly more than three in five or rather
of 1,515 players eager to make the dis- porarily.
But gradually that balance
leas than two out of three.
tance from second to third, 61.58% suc- adjusts itself and ultimately swings true
Now to summarize our results. The ceeded in making the distance. Note that to form. And the influences which deterbatter who singles will reach second base the percentage was higher than in making mine its ups and downs are the odds.