European
Historical
Economics
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EHES WORKING PAPERS IN ECONOMIC HISTORY | NO. 103
Spain’s Historical National Accounts: Expenditure and Output,
1850-2015
Leandro Prados de la Escosura
Universidad Carlos III, CEPR, and Groningen
SEPTEMBER 2016
EHES Working Paper | No. 103 | September 2016
Spain’s Historical National Accounts: Expenditure and Output,
1850-2015*
Leandro Prados de la Escosura**
Universidad Carlos III, CEPR, and Groningen
Abstract
This essay offers a new set of historical GDP estimates from the demand and supply sides that revises
and expands those in Prados de la Escosura (2003) and provides the basis to investigate Spain’s long
run economic growth. It presents a reconstruction of production and expenditure series for the century
prior to the introduction of modern national accounts. Then, it splices available national accounts sets
over the period 1958-2015 through interpolation, as an alternative to conventional retropolation. The
resulting national accounts series are linked to the ‘pre-statistical era’ estimates providing yearly series
for GDP and its components since 1850. On the basis of new population estimates, GDP per head is
derived. Trends in GDP per head are, then, drawn and, using new employment estimates, decomposed
into labour productivity and the amount of work per person, and placed into international perspective.
JEL classification: C82, E01, N13, N14
Keywords: historical national accounts, GDP, output, expenditure, splicing
GDP, Spain
*I gratefully acknowledge Albert Carreras, César Molinas, Patrick O’Brien, Joan Rosés, Blanca Sánchez-Alonso,
James Simpson, David Taguas†, and, especially, Angus Maddison†, for their advice for his encouragement over
the years. Nelson Álvarez, Juan Carmona, Albert Carreras, Sebastián Coll, Francisco Comín, Antonio Díaz
Ballesteros, Rosario Gandoy, Antonio Gómez Mendoza, Alfonso Herranz-Loncán, Stefan Houpt, Pablo MartínAceña, Elena Martínez Ruíz, Vicente Pérez Moreda, David Reher, Blanca Sánchez-Alonso, María Teresa Sanchis,
James Simpson, Antonio Tena, and Gabriel Tortella kindly allowed me to draw on their unpublished data. Pilar
Martínez Marín and Begoña Varela Merino, at the Spanish Statistical Institute, kindly help me with some
technicalities of the latest national accounts. I thank Julio Alcaide†, Bart van Ark, Carlos Barciela, Francisco
Comín, Antonio Díaz Ballesteros, Rafael Dobado, Toni Espasa, Ángel de la Fuente, Ángel García Sanz†, Pedro
Fraile Balbín, Pablo Martín-Aceña, César Molinas, Jordi Palafox, Vicente Pérez Moreda, Carlos Rodríguez Braun,
Nicolás Sánchez-Albornoz, Blanca Sánchez-Alonso, and Piero Tedde de Lorca for their valuable comments.
** Leandro Prados de la EscosuraDepartamento de Ciencias Sociales, Universidad Carlos III, 28903 Getafe
(Madrid), Spain, mail: [email protected]
Notice
The material presented in the EHES Working Paper Series is property of the author(s) and should be quoted as such.
The views expressed in this Paper are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the EHES or
its members
TableofContents
I.Introduction
II.MainFindings
II.1GDP
II.2GDPperHead
II.3LabourProductivity
II.4Spain’sPerformanceinComparativePerspective
III.MeasuringGDP,1850-1958:Supply
III.1Agriculture,Forestry,andFishing
III.1.1Agriculture
III.1.2Forestry
III.1.3Fishing
III.1.4ValueAddedforAgriculture,Forestry,andFishing
III.2Industry
III.2.1Manufacturing
III.2.2ExtractiveIndustries
III.2.3Utilities
III.2.4ValueAddedforManufacturing,ExtractiveIndustries,andUtilities
III.3Construction
III.3.1Residentialandcommercialconstruction
III.3.2Non-residentialconstruction
III.3.3ValueAddedinResidentialandNon-residentialConstruction
III.4Services
III.4.1TransportandCommunications
III.4.2WholesaleandRetailTrade
III.4.3BankingandInsurance
III.4.4OwnerhipofDwellings
III.4.5PublicAdministration
III.4.6EducationandHealth
III.4.7OtherServices
III.4.8ValueAddedinServices
III.5TotalGrossValueAddedandGDPatmarketprices
IV.MeasuringGDP,1850-1958:Demand
IV.1ConsumptionofGoodsandServices
IV.1.1PrivateConsumption
IV.1.2PublicConsumption
IV.2GrossDomesticCapitalFormation
IV.2.1GrossDomesticFixedCapitalFormation
IV.2.2VariationinStocks
IV.3NetExportsofGoodsandServices
IV.4GrossDomesticProductatmarketprices
IV.5GrossNationalIncome
IV.6NetNationalIncome
IV.7NetNationalDisposableIncome
V.NewGDPSeriesandEarlierEstimatesforthePre-NationalAccountsEra
V.1ConsejodeEconomíaNacional(CEN)
V.2RevisionsandExtensionsofCENEstimates
V.3IndependentEstimates
V.4ComparingtheNewandEarlierGDPEstimates
VI.SplicingNationalAccounts,1958-2015
VI.1NationalAccountsSplicinginSpain
VI.2SplicingNationalAccountsthroughInterpolation
VII.Population,1850-2015
VIII.Employment,1850-2015
Appendices
Appendix1.FinalOutputandValueAddedinAgriculture,1850-1958
ElectronicAppendix.
Thedatasetcanbeaccessedathttp://espacioinvestiga.org/bbdd-chne/?lang=en
2
Tables
Table1.EconomicGrowth,1850-2015(%)(averageyearlylogarithmicrates).
Table 2. GDP per Head Growth and its Components, 1850-2015 (%). (average yearly
logarithmicrates).
Table3.LabourProductivityGrowthandStructuralChange,1850-2015(%)(averageyearly
logarithmicrates).
Table 4. Hours Worked per Head Growth and its Composition, 1850-2015 (%) (average
yearlylogarithmicrates).
Table 4. Hours Worked per Head Growth and its Composition, 1850-2015 (%) (average
yearlylogarithmicrates).
Table5.ComparativePerCapitaGDPGrowth,1850-2015(%)(averageannuallogarithmic
rates).
Table6.AgriculturalFinalOutput:BenchmarkEstimates,1890-1960/64.
Table7.AgriculturalFinalOutputatcurrentprices,1890-1964(%).
Table8.ConstructionofAgriculturalVolumeIndices,1850-1958.
Table9.CompositionofManufacturingValueAddedin1958.
Table10.BreakdownofManufacturingValueAdded,1913-1958(%).
Table11.BreakdownofGrossValueAddedinServices,1913-1958(%).
Table12.RealGDPGrowthinthePre-NationalAccountsEra:AlternativeEstimates,18501958(%).
Table13.Spain'sNationalAccounts,1954-2015.
Table14.GDPatmarketprices:AlternativeEstimates(millionEuroatcurrentprices).
Table15.RealGDPGrowth:AlternativeSplicing,1958-2010(annualaveragerates%).
Figures
Figure1.RealGDPatmarketprices,1850-2015(2010=100)(logs).
Figure2.Private,Government,andTotalConsumptionasSharesofGDP,1850-2015(%
GDP)(currentprices).
Figure3.CapitalFormationasaShareofGDP,1850-2015(%)(currentprices).
Figure4.FixedCapitalFormationanditsComposition,1850-2015(%GDP)(currentprices).
Figure5.Openness:ExportsandimportsSharesinGDP(%)(currentprices).
Figure6:GrossFixedCapitalFormationandImports,1850-20158%GDP)(currentprices).
Figure7.GDPCompositionfromtheOutputSide(%)(currentprices).
Figure8.Hoursworkedbyfull-timeequivalentworkers:distributionbyeconomicsectors,
1850-2015.
Figure9.RelativeLabourProductivity(GVAperhourworked),1850-2015(averagelabour
productivity=1).
Figure10.RealGDPandGDPperHead,1850-2015(2010=100)(logs).
Figure11.RealPerCapitaGDPandPrivateConsumption,1850-2015(2010=100)(logs).
Figure12.PerCapitaGDPanditsComponents,1850-2015(logs).
Figure13.Hoursperfull-timeequivalentworker,1850-2015.
Figure14.Spain’sComparativeRealPerCapitaGDP(2011EKS$)(logs).
3
Figure15.Spain’sRelativeRealPerCapitaGDP(2011EKS$)(%).
Figure16.Spain’sComparativeRealPerCapitaGDPwithAlternativeSplicing(2011EKS$)
(logs).
Figure17.Spain’sRealPerCapitaGDPrelativetoFranceandtheUKwithAlternative
Splicing(2011EKS$).
Figure18.Non-residentialConstructionVolumeIndices,1850-1935:AlternativeEstimates
(1913=100).
Figure19.PrivateConsumptionPaascheDeflatorandLaspeyresConsumerPriceIndex,
1850-1958(1913=100)(logs).
Figure20.GrossInvestmentinNon-residentialConstructionVolumeIndices,1850-1935:
AlternativeEstimates(1913=100).
Figure21,AlternativeRealGDPEstimates,1850-1958(1958=100)(logs).
Figure22,AlternativeRealGDPEstimates,1900-1958(1958=100)(logs).
Figure23.RatiobetweenHybridLinearlyInterpolatedandRetropolatedNominalGDP
Series,1958-2000.
Figure24RealGDP,1958-2000(2010Euro)(logs):AlternativeEstimateswithHybrid
LinearInterpolationandRetropolationSplicing(logs).
Figure25RealGrossValueAdded,1958-2015(2010Euro)(logs):AlternativeEstimates
withHybridLinearInterpolationandMixedSplicing,1958-2015.
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I.INTRODUCTION
ThegoalofthisessayistopresentanewsetofhistoricalnationalaccountswithGDP
estimatesfromthedemandandsupplysides,whichrevisesandexpandsthoseinPrados
delaEscosura(2003)andprovidesthebasistoinvestigateSpain’seconomicprogress
duringthelast166years.Firstly,historicaloutputandexpenditureseriesare
reconstructedforthecenturypriortotheintroductionofmodernnationalaccounts.
Then,availablenationalaccountsaresplicedthroughinterpolation,asanalternativeto
conventionalretropolation,toderivenewcontinuousseriesfor1958-2015.Later,the
seriesforthe‘pre-statisticalera’arelinkedtothesplicednationalaccountsproviding
yearlyseriesforGDPanditscomponentsover1850-2015.Finally,onthebasisofnew
populationestimates,GDPperheadisderived,decomposedintolabourproductivityand
theamountofworkperperson,andplacedintointernationalperspective.
Allreservationsaboutnationalaccountsincurrentlydevelopingcountriesdoapply
topre-1958Spain.1Infact,SimonKuznets’(1952:9)scepticalwordsaremostrelevant,
“Consistentandfullyarticulatedsetsofestimatesofincome,…anditscomponents,for
periodslongenoughtorevealthelevelandstructureofthenation’seconomicgrowth,are
notavailable...Theestimates…areanamalgamofbasicdata,plausibleinferences,and
fortifiedguesses”.Thus,despitethecollectiveeffortsunderlyingthehistoricaloutputand
expenditureseriesofferedhere,thenumbersforthe‘pre-statisticalera’haveinevitably
largemarginsoferror.2ThiswarningtotheuserisworthbecauseasCharlesFeinstein
(1988:264)wrote,“oncelongrunsofestimatesaresystematicallyarrayedinneattables
theyconveyawhollyspuriousairofprecision”.
Nonetheless,thenewseriesrepresentanimprovementuponprevioushistorical
estimates,astheyareconstructedfromhighlydisaggregateddatagroundedonthe
detailed,painstakingresearchonSpaincarriedoutbyeconomichistorians.Asystematic
attempthasbeenmadetoreconciletheexistingknowledgeontheperformanceof
1
Cf.Srinivasan(1994),Heston(1994),andJerven(2013)onnationalaccountsindevelopingcountries.
SpanishhistoricalstatisticseditedbyCarrerasandTafunell(2005)provideacomprehensivesurveyofthe
achievementsinquantitativeresearchduringthelastfourdecades.
2
5
individualindustries,includingservices(largelyneglectedinearlierestimates),withan
aggregateviewoftheeconomy.
Thepaperisorganizedinfivesections.SectionIIsummarises,onthebasisofthe
newGDPseries,themainfindingsaboutlongrunaggregateperformanceandplaces
Spain’sexperienceincomparativeperspective.Thenexttwosectionsaddressthe‘prestatisticalera’(1850-1958)describingtheproceduresandsourcesusedtoderiveannual
seriesofnominalandrealGDPforboththesupply(sectionIII)andthedemand(section
IV).Then,insectionV,thenewresultsarecomparedtoearlierestimatesforpre-national
accountsyears.Lastly,insectionVI,thedifferentsetsofnationalaccountsavailablefor
1958-2015aresplicedthroughinterpolation,andtheresultingseriescomparedtothose
obtainedthroughalternativesplicingproceduresand,then,linkedtothepre-1958
historicalestimatesinordertoobtainyearlyGDPseriesfor1850-2015.
6
II.MAINFINDINGS
II.1GDP
Aggregateeconomicactivitymultipliedfiftytimesbetween1850and2015,atan
averagecumulativegrowthrateof2.4percentperyear(Figure1).Fourmainphasesmay
beestablished:1850-1950(withashifttoalowerlevelduringtheCivilWar,1936-1939),
1950-1974,1974-2007,and2007-2015,inwhichthegrowthtrendvariedsignificantly
(Table1).3Thus,inthephaseoffastestgrowth,theGoldenAge(1950-1974),GDPgrewat
6.3percentannually,fourandahalftimesfasterthanduringtheprevioushundredyears
andtwicefasterthanover1974-2007,whiletheGreatRecessionrepresentedafallinreal
GDPbetween2007and2013(8percent),andthe2007levelhadnotbeenrecoveredby
2015.GrossDomesticIncome(GDI),thatis,incomeaccruingtothoselivinginSpain,as
opposedtooutputproducedinSpain,shadowscloselyGDPevolution.
Figure1.RealGDPatmarketprices,1850-2015(2010=100)(logs)
3
Mainphasesdefinedasdeviationsfromsegmentedtrendestimateswithexogenousstructuralbreaksin
PradosdelaEscosura(2003,2007b)havebeenkepthere.Achangeoftrendindicatesabreakinthelongtermrateofgrowth.Achangeinlevel,asthedropineconomicactivityduringtheCivilWar,doesnotalter
theestablishedgrowthrate.
7
AlookattheevolutionofoutputandexpenditurecomponentsofGDPprovides
valuableinformationaboutitsdeterminants.Changesinthecompositionofdemandare
highlyrevealingofthedeeptransformationexperiencedbySpain’seconomyoverthelast
twocenturies.
Figure2.Private,Government,andTotalConsumptionasSharesofGDP,1850-2015(%GDP)(currentprices)
TheshareoftotalconsumptioninGDPremainedstableatahighleveluptothelate
1880s,followedbyadeclinethatreachedbeyondWorldWarI(Figure2).Then,it
recoveredintheearly1920s,helpedbytheriseingovernmentconsumption(Figure2,
rightscale),stabilisinguptomid-1930s.TheCivilWar(1936-39)andWorldWarII(evenif
Spainwasanon-belligerantcountry)accountforthecontractioninprivateconsumption
andthesuddenanddramaticincreaseingovernmentconsumptionsharesinGDP.The
shareoftotalconsumptiononlyfellbelow85percentofGDPafter1953,whenalongrun
declinewasinitiatedreachingatrough(atthree-fourthsofGDP)bythemid-2000s.Sucha
declineintheGDPshareoftotalconsumptionconcealsanintensedeclineinprivate
consumption(thatcontractedfrom75percentofGDPin1965toahistoricaltrough,56
percent,in2009)paralleledbyasustainedriseingovernmentconsumption(thatjumped
8
froma7.5percenttroughinthemid-1960stoa20percentpeakin2009-2010)that
resultedfromtheexpansionofthewelfarestateandthetransformationofahighly
centralizedstateintoadefactofederalstate(Comín,1992,1994).
Investmentoscillatedaround5percentofGDPinthesecondhalfofthe
nineteenthcenturybutforthelate1850sandearly1860swhenitdoubledduringthe
railwaysconstructionboom(Figure3).Fromtheturnofthecenturyalong-termincrease
tookplacewiththerelativelevelofcapitalformationincreasingfromaround5toabove
30percentofGDPin2006.Phasesofinvestmentaccelerationappeartobeassociated
withthoseoffastergrowthinaggregateeconomicactivity,namely,thelate-1850s-mid1860s,the1920s,mid-1950s-early1970s,andbetweenSpain’saccessiontotheEuropean
Union(EU)(1985)and2007.Nonetheless,thelong-runincreasewaspunctuatedby
reversalsduringtheWorldWarsandtheSpanishCivilWar,thetransitiontodemocracy
(1975-85),whichcoincidedwiththeoilshocks,andtheGreatRecession(2008-13).
Figure3.CapitalFormationasaShareofGDP,1850-2015(%)(currentprices)
Thebreakdownofgrossdomesticfixedcapitalformationshowstheprevalenceof
residentialandnon-residentialconstructionasitsmaincomponentsovertime,witha
9
gradualriseoftheshareofmoreproductiveassets(machineryandtransportequipment)
duringthetwentiethcenturyupto1974thatstabilisedtherafter(Figure4).The
urbanizationandindustrializationpushinthe1920sand1950s-early1970sreflectsclearly
acrossdifferenttypesofassets.Itisworthnotingtheincreaseintheshareof
infrastructureafterSpain’saccessiontotheEUandtheresidentialconstructionbubble
betweenthelate1990sand2007.
Figure4.FixedCapitalFormationanditsComposition,1850-2015(%GDP)(currentprices)
TheexpositionofSpaintotheinternationaleconomyalsoincreasedbutfollowing
anon-monotonicpattern,withthreemainphases:agradualriseinopenness(thatis,
exportsplusimportsasashareofGDP)duringthesecondhalfofthenineteenthcentury
thatatthebeginningofthetwentiethcenturystabilisedatahighplateauupto1914;this
wasfollowedbyasharpdeclinefromtheearly1920stomid-centurythatreachatrough
duringWorldWarII(Figure5).Acautiousbutsteadyprocessofintegrationinthe
internationaleconomytookplacesincethe1950s,wasfacilitatedbythereforms
associatedtothe1959StabilizationandLiberalizationPlan.
10
Figure5.Openness:ExportsandimportsSharesinGDP(%)(currentprices).
Howgradualwasthepost-1950recoveryisshownbythefactthatonlyin1955the
levelofopennessof1929wasreachedandthatthehistoricalmaximumofthepre-World
WarIyearswasovercomein1970.Ittooklongerforexportsthanforimportstorecover
pre-WorldWarIrelativesize(onlyin1980thatofthe1910swasovercome).Spain’s
increasingopennessduringthelastfourdecadessuffered,nonetheless,reversalsinthe
secondhalfofthe1980sand,again,inthe2000sasaresultofacontractioninexports.
Itisworthmentioningtheconcordanceobservedbetweeninvestmentand
imports,whichsuggestsaconnectionbetweeneconomicgrowthandexposureto
internationalcompetition(Figure6).Furthermore,phasesofmoreintenseimportsand
investmentarealsothoseofdeficitinthebalanceofgoodsandservices,whichsuggests
aninflowofcapitalandalinkbetweentheexternalsectorandcapitalformation.
11
Figure6.GrossFixedCapitalFormationandImports,1850-20158%GDP)(currentprices)
ThecompositionofGDPbysectorsofeconomicactivitybetween1850and2015
highlightsthetransformationsassociatedwithmoderneconomicgrowth(Figure7).
Agriculture’sshareunderwentasustainedcontractionovertime,butforthe
autarkicreversalofthe1940s,whichintensifiedduringthelate1880sandearly1890s,the
1920sand1950-1980.Industry,includingmanufacturing,extractiveindustries,and
utilities,followedaninverseU,expandingitsrelativesizeuptothelate1920sand,after
the1930sand1940sbacklash,resumeditsrelativeincreasetostabilizeatahighplateau
(around30percentofGDP),and,then,droppingsharplysincethemid-1980s,as
shelteredanduncompetitiveindustriescollapsedduetoliberalizationandopeningup
afterEUaccession.By2010,therelativesizeofindustryhadshrunktopracticallyone-half
ofitspeakintheearly1960s.Constructionindustryremainedstablebelow5percentof
GDPuntilmid-twentiethcentury(butforexpansionaryphasesinthelate1850s-early
1860s,1920sand1950s),exhibitingasustainedincreasesincetheearly1960sthatpeaked
duringthemid-2000s,morethandoublingitsrelativesize.Theendoftheconstruction
bubbleduringtheGreatRecessionimpliedareturntothemid-1960s.
12
Figure7.GDPCompositionfromtheOutputSide(%)(currentprices)
ServicesmadeahighandstablecontributiontoGDP,fluctuatingaround40percent,
betweenmid-nineteenthandmid-twentiethcentury,butforthe1930s-1940sparenthesis
ofdepression,civilwar,andautarky,andexpandedfromlessthanone-halftothreefourthsofGDPbetweentheearly1960sand2015.
TheevolutionofservicesasashareofGDPinSpain,withahighshareofGDPin
earlystagesofdevelopment(around40percent)conflictswiththeliteratureonstructural
change,whichsuggestsagrowingcontributionofservicestoGDPaspercapitaincome
increases(CheneryandSyrquin,1975;PradosdelaEscosura,2007a).Apathdependency
explanationcouldbesuggestedasthearrivalofAmericansilverremittancesintheearly
modernera(sixteenthandeighteenthcenturies),alteredtherelativepricesoftradable
andnon-tradablegoods,inanearlyexperienceof‘Dutchdisease’,shiftingdomestic
resourcestowardsnon-tradablesproduction(ForsythandNicholas,1983;Drelichman,
2005).4
4
Astheriseofthemetropolis’pricelevelfavouredtheimportationoftradablegoodsandprovokedthe
dissolutionoflocalindustry,whilethepriceincreasestimulatedtheproductionofgoodsthatwerenot
tradedinternationally.
13
ComparingthesectoralcompositionofGDPtothatoflabourcanbeilluminating.
Figure8presentsthecompositionofemploymentintermsofhoursworkedacross
industries.
Figure8.Hoursworkedbyfull-timeequivalentworkers:distributionbyeconomicsectors,1850-2015
Agriculture’sshareexhibitsalong-rundeclinefromabovethree-fifthstolessthan5
percentsince2006.Itfellmoregraduallyupto1950-butforthesharpcontractionofthe
1920sandearly1930s-,revertedduringtheCivilWar(1936-39)anditsautarkicaftermath,
andacceleratedover1950-1990,whenitshrankfromhalfthelabourforcetoone-tenth.
Eventhoughitsnumbersmightbeover-exaggeratedpriortomid-twentiethcenturydue
topeasants’economicactivitiesoutsideagriculture,agricultureprovidesthelargest
contributiontoemploymentupto1964,whenitstillrepresentedone-thirdoftotalhours
worked.Theevolutionoftherelativesizeofservices,whosefiguresmaybe
underestimatedbefore1950,forthesamereasonsofagriculture’sover-exaggeration,
presentsamirrorimageofagriculture’s,takingoverasthelargestindustryfrom1965
onwardsandreachingthree-fourthsoftotalhoursworkedby2015.Industry’ssteady
expansion,butfortheCivilWarreversal,overcameagriculture’sshareby1973and
14
peakedbythelate1970sreachingone-forthofemployment,toinitiateagradual
contractionthathascutitsrelativesizebyalmosthalfby2015.Construction,inturn,
morethantrebleditsinitialshareby2007,sharplycontractingasthesector’sbubble
endedduringtheGreatRecession.
AsalreadyobservedinGDPcomposition,aninitialphaseofstructuralchange,in
whichtheagriculturalsectorcontractedandthatofindustryexpanded-onlybrokenby
thepostwarfallingbehind-,wasfollowedbyasecondphasesince1980,inwhichthe
relativedeclineinvolved,inadditiontoagriculture,theindustrialsector,while
employmentinservicesaccelerateditsescalation.
Figure9.RelativeLabourProductivity(GVAperhourworked),1850-2015(averagelabourproductivity=1)
ComparingthesectoraldistributionofGDPandemploymentallowsustoestablish
labourproductivitybyindustryrelativetotheeconomyasawhole(Figure9).Several
featuresstandout.Relativeindustrialproductivityincreasedtoreachaplateauoverthe
late1880sandWorldWarIinwhichitdoubledit.Episodesofintensifiedindustrialization
andurbanizationinthe1920sand,toalargerextent,betweenthemid1950sandmid-
15
1970s,wereaccompaniedbyabsortionoflabour,whichunderliesthedeclineinthe
relativeproductivityofindustryandservices.
Agriculturallabourproductivityfluctuatedbetweenone-halfandtwo-thirdofthe
economy’saverage(exceptionalpeaksandtroughsaside)andtendedtoberatherstable.
Suchstabilitybetween1890and1960,hardlyaffectedbythegradualcontractionof
agriculturalshareinemployment,showsthemoderateandgradualstructural
transformationoftheSpanisheconomy.Later,acceleratedindustrialization,upheldby
capitalintensificationandtheincorporationofnewtechnologies,inthe1960s,and
industrialre-structuringinthelate1970s,explainthesharpdropintherelative
productivityoftheagriculturalsector.Inturn,thedestructionofagriculturalemployment,
whichcutitssharebyhalf,underliestherecoveryofagriculture’srelativeproductivity
between1984and1994.
Thegradualreductioninproductivitydifferencesacrossduringthelasthalfa
centurysuggestsconvergenceinfactorproportionsandcouldbeinterpretedasaresultof
improvedresourceallocation.5
II.2GDPperHead
ModerneconomicgrowthisdefinedbysustainedimprovementinGDPperhead.
From1850to2015realGDPperheadinSpainexperiencednearlya16-foldincrease,
growingatanannualrateof1.7percent(Figure10andTable1).Suchanimprovement
tookplaceatanunevenpace.PercapitaGDPgrewat0.7percentover1850-1950,
doublingitsinitiallevel.Duringthenextquarterofacentury,theGoldenAge,itspace
acceleratedmorethan7-fold,soby1974percapitaincomewas3.6timeshigherthanin
1950.Althoughtheeconomydeceleratedfrom1974onwards,anditsrateofgrowthper
headshranktoone-halfthatoftheGoldenAge,percapitaGDPmorethandoubled
between1974and2007.TheGreatRecession(2008-13)shrankpercapitaincomeby11
percent,but,by2015,itslevelwasstill83percenthigherthanatthetimeofSpain’sEU
accession(1985).
5
Still,thehighrelativelabourproductivityofservicesduringthehundredyearsspanning1850-1950callsfor
arevisionofthesectoraldistributionofemploymentandcouldbeventuredthatamorerigorouscalculation
wouldrevealalesserproportionofemploymentinagricultureandagreateroneinservices,with
consequentrepercussionsontherelativeproductivityoflabourineachsector.
16
Figure10.RealGDPandGDPperHead,1850-2015(2010=100)(logs).
Differentlongswingscanbedistinguishedinwhichgrowthratesdeviatefromthe
long-runtrendasaresultofeconomicpolicies,accesstointernationalmarkets,and
technologicalchange.Growthrates,measuredasaverageannuallogarithmicratesof
variation,areprovidedinTable1formainphasesofeconomicperformance(PanelA)and
longswings(PanelB).Afurtherbreakdownintoshortcyclesispresentedfor1850-1950
(PanelC).
Duringthefirstlongswing,1850-1883,therateofgrowthofproductperperson
waswellabovethe1850-1950average.Itcanbepartlyattributedtoa‘reconstruction
effect’afterwars,politicalinstabilityandsocialunrestduringtheearlynineteenth
century.Institutionalreformsthatbroughthighereconomicfreedomseemtoliebeneath
thesignificantgrowthexperiencedduringthesethreedecades(PradosdelaEscosura,
2016a).Openinguptointernationaltradeandforeigncapitalmadeitpossibletobreak
thecloseconnectionbetweeninvestmentandsavingsandcontributedtotheeconomic
growth(PradosdelaEscosura,2010).Itisworthstressingthat,contrarytocommon
economicwisdom,robusteconomicperformancetookplaceeventhoughpolitical
17
instabilityprevailedthroughoutthisperiod-whichincludedthe1854liberaluprisingand
the1868GloriousRevolution-,suggestingthatanimproveddefinitionandenforcementof
propertyrightsandeconomicfreedommorethanoffsetpoliticalturmoilandsocialunrest.
Table1
EconomicGrowth,1850-2015(%)
(averageyearlylogarithmicrates)
1850-2015
PanelA
1850-1950
1950-1974
1974-2007
2007-2015
PanelB
1850-1883
1883-1920
1920-1929
1929-1950
1950-1958
1958-1974
1974-1984
1984-1992
1992-2007
2007-2013
2013-2015
PanelC
1850-1855
1855-1866
1866-1873
1873-1883
1883-1892
1892-1901
1901-1913
1913-1918
1918-1929
1929-1935
1935-1939
1939-1944
1944-1950
GDP
2.4
PerCapitaGDP
1.7
Population
0.7
1.3
6.3
3.3
-0.5
0.7
5.3
2.5
-0.8
0.6
1.0
0.7
0.3
1.7
1.2
3.8
0.0
5.8
6.5
2.2
4.5
3.3
-1.4
2.4
1.3
0.6
2.8
-0.9
5.0
5.5
1.4
4.2
2.4
-1.9
2.6
0.5
0.6
1.0
0.9
0.8
1.1
0.8
0.3
1.0
0.5
-0.2
2.6
1.0
3.2
1.1
0.8
1.3
1.2
0.3
3.9
0.0
-6.6
4.9
0.2
2.1
0.4
2.9
0.6
0.6
0.7
0.5
-0.6
3.1
-1.5
-6.9
4.8
-1.0
0.6
0.6
0.2
0.5
0.3
0.6
0.7
0.9
0.9
1.5
0.4
0.1
1.2
Growthsloweddownbetweentheearly1880sand1920.Restrictionsonboth
domesticandexternalcompetitionhelpexplainsluggishgrowthdespiteinstitutional
18
stabilityduringtheRestauración(1875-1923)shouldhaveprovidedafavourable
environmentforinvestmentandgrowth(FraileBalbín,1991,1998).Increasingtariff
protection(TenaJunguito,1999),togetherwithexclusionfromtheprevailinginternational
monetarysystem,thegoldstandard,mayhaverepresentedamajorobstacletoSpain’s
integrationintheinternationaleconomy(Martín-Aceña,1993;BordoandRockoff,1996).
TheCubanWarofIndependence,despitethealreadyweakenedeconomiclinksbetween
theSpainanditscolony,causedsignificantmacroeconomicinstabilitythatbrought
forwardthefallofthepesetaandincreasedSpain’seconomicisolation(Pradosdela
Escosura,2010).CubanindependencehadlittledirecteconomicimpactonSpain’s
economybutadeepindirectone,astheintensificationofprotectionistandisolationist
tendenciesintheearlytwentiethcenturyseemtobeitspoliticaloutcome(FraileBalbín
andEscribano,1998).Macroeconomicinstabilitytogetherwithasuddenstopreduced
capitalinflowsleadingtothedepreciationofthePeseta(Martín-Aceña,1993;Pradosdela
Escosura,2010)that,inturn,increasedmigrationcosts,reducingtheoutwardflowof
labour(Sánchez-Alonso,2000).WorldWarIhardlybroughtanyeconomicprogressand
GDPperheadshrank,aresultinstarkcontradictionwiththeconventionalstressonthe
warstimulatingeffectsongrowth.6
The1920srepresentedtheperiodofmostintensegrowthpriorto1950.The
hypothesisthatGovernmentintervention,throughtradeprotectionism,regulation,and
investmentininfrastructure,wasadriverofgrowthhasbeenwidelyaccepted(Velarde,
1969).Theemphasisontariffprotectionismtendstoneglect,however,thatSpainopened
uptointernationalcapitalduringthe1920s,whichallowedthepurchaseofcapitalgoods
andrawmaterialsandcontributedtogrowthacceleration.
Afourthlongswingtookplacebetween1929and1950,whichincludestheGreat
Depression,theCivilWar,andpost-warautarkicpolicies,isdefinedbyeconomic
stagnationandshrinkingGDPperhead.TheDepression,asmeasuredbyrealGDPper
headcontraction,extendedinSpain,asintheU.S.,until1933,witha12percentfall
(against31percentintheU.S.),lastinglongerthanintheU.K.(whereitendedin1931
6
Cf.RoldánandGarcíaDelgado(1973)fortheestablishedviewontheimpactoftheGreatWaronSpain.
19
andrealpercapitaGDPperheadshrankby7percent)andGermany(1932and17per
centdecline,respectively),butlessthaninItaly(1934and9percentcontraction)and
France(1935and13percentfall).Thus,theDepression,withGDPperheadfallingat-3.1
percentannually(-1.5percentforabsoluteGDP),wasmilderthanintheU.S.butsimilar
inintensitytoWesternEurope’saverage(MaddisonProject,2013),afindingthat
challengestheviewofaweakerimpactduetoSpain’srelativeinternationalisolationand
backwardness.TheCivilWar(1936-39)preventedSpainfromjoiningthepost-Depression
recoveryandresultedinaseverecontractionofeconomicactivity(31percentdropinreal
percapitaincomebetweenlevelsin1935andthe1938trough)that,nonetheless,didnot
reachthemagnitudeofWorldWarIIimpactonmainbelligerentcountriesofcontinental
westernEurope(inAustria,theNetherlands,France,andItalypercapitaincomeshrankby
halfandinGermanybytwo-thirds)(MaddisonProject,2013).7
Theweakrecoveryoftheyearsfrom1944to1950standsoutintheinternational
context.Spain’seconomydidnotreachitspre-warGDPperheadpeaklevel(1929)until
1954(1950inabsoluteterms)andthatofprivateconsumptionperheaduntil1956.In
contrast,itonlytookanaverageof6yearstoreturntothepre-warlevelsinWestern
Europe(1951).8Itistruethatwarringcountriessurroundedpost-CivilWarSpain(Velarde,
1993),butthefactthatitseconomyonlygrewatarateof0.2percentyearlybetween
1944and1950suggestsasluggishrecoveryafteracomparativelymildcontraction.
Inthesearchforexplanations,thedestructionofphysicalcapitaldoesnotappear
tobeaconvincingoneasitwasabouttheWesternEuropeanaverageduringWorldWarII
(around8percentoftheexistingstockofcapitalin1935),althoughitsconcentrationon
productivecapital(especiallytransportequipment)meantthatlevelsofdestruction
causedbytheconflictinSpainwerefarfromnegligible(PradosdelaEscosuraandRosés,
2010a).However,exileaftertheCivilWarand,possiblytoalargerextent,internalexile
resultingfrompoliticalrepressionofFranco’sdictatorship,meantthelossofa
7
Actually,atthetroughduringtheCivilWar(1938)Spain’sGDPperheadwasequaltothatof1905,while
theWorldWarIItroughbroughtItaly,Germany,andFrance’sbackto1880,1886,and1891,respectively
(MaddisonProject,2013.SeeBoltandvanZanden,2014,forapresentationofthiscollaborativeproject).
8
Belgium,theNetherlandsandFrancedidsoin1949,AustriaandItalyin1950,withGermany(1954)and
Greece(1956),theexceptions.
20
considerableamountofSpain’slimitedhumancapital(Núñez2003,OrtegaandSilvestre
2006).9Thus,itcanbeputforwardthehypothesisthatthelargerlossofhumancapitalvisà-visphysicalcapitalcontributedtothedelayedreconstruction(PradosdelaEscosura,
2007b).
Thechangeintrendthatbeganafter1950usheredinanexceptionalphaseofrapid
growthlastinguntil1974.Duringthe1950s,though,industrialisationinSpainwaslargely
dependentoninternaldemand.Importvolatilityrenderedinvestmentriskyandtendedto
penalisecapitalaccumulation,whileinflowsofforeigncapitalandnewtechnologywere
restricted.Inaway,Spain’scasesupportsthecounterfactualthatwithouttheMarshall
Plan,Inter-warcommodityandfactormarketsintervention,includingquantitative
restrictionsoninternationaltradeandexchangecontrolswouldhavepersistedasthe
maineconomicpolicies.10Aninstitutionalreforminitiatedwiththe1959Stabilizationand
LiberalizationPlan,aresponsetotheexhaustionoftheinward-lookingdevelopment
strategy,setpoliciesthatfavouredtheallocationofresourcesalongcomparative
advantageandallowedsustainedandfastergrowthduringthe1960sandearly1970s.11
WithouttheStabilizationandLiberalisationPlan,percapitaGDPwouldhavebeen
significantlyloweratthetimeofFranco’sdeath,in1975.However,withoutthemoderate
reformsofthe1950sandthesubsequenteconomicgrowthitseemsunlikelythe
StabilizationPlanwouldhavesucceeded(PradosdelaEscosuraetal.,2012).Thisview
challengesthewidespreadperceptionofthefirsttwodecadesofFranco’sdictatorshipas
ahomogeneousautarchiceraandthe1959StabilizationandLiberalizationPlanasamajor
discontinuitybetweenautarkyandthemarketeconomy.
9
Regardinginteriorandexteriorexilecf.López(1991,1996)andPláBrugat(1994,1999).
EichengreenandUzan(1992)suggestthattheMarshallPlan’smaincontributionwasencouragingapromarketeconomicpolicy.CalvoGonzález(2001,2007)hasshownthatinSpaintherearesimilaritiesbetween
theincentivesforthemarkettooperateasamechanismofresourceallocationprovidedbytheUSA-Spain
agreementsof1953andtheMarshallPlaninEurope.
11
Itisworthpointingoutinterestingsimilaritiesbetweenthe1959StabilizationPlanandtheWashington
Consensus,includingmeasuresconducivetotradeandcapitalaccountliberalization,macroeconomic
policiestoreduceinflationandthesizeofthefiscalimbalances,andotherreformstoprotectprivate
propertyrightsandtoreducetheactivityofthegovernment(Williamson,1990;Fischer,2003;Schleifer,
2009;andEdwards,2009).
10
21
Theoilshocksofthe1970shappenedatthetimeofSpain’stransitionfrom
dictatorshiptodemocracythatbroughtwithitfurtheropeningupandeconomic
liberalization.Duringthetransitiondecade(1974-1984)GDPgrowthratefelltoone-third
ofthatachievedover1958-74,andtoone-fourthwhenmeasuredinpercapitaterms.Was
theslowdownexogenous,aresultoftheinternationalcrisis?Diditderivefromthe
Francoismlegacyofaneconomystillshelteredfrominternationalcompetition?Orwas
theoutcomeofthenewdemocraticauthorities’policies?Answeringthesequestions
representsachallengetoresearchers.AccessiontotheEuropeanUnionheraldedmore
thanthreedecadesofabsoluteandpercapitagrowththatcametoahaltwiththeGreat
Recession.Again,thedeepercontractionandweakerrecoverycallsforinvestigationon
theunderlyingfoundationsofthe1985-2007expansion.
Figure11.RealPerCapitaGDPandPrivateConsumption,1850-2015(2010=100)(logs)
ButtowhatextentdidGDPperheadgainsaffectlivingstandards?Alookaprivate
consumptionperpersonoffersapartialanswer(leavingdistributionaside).Anarrow
parallelismemergesbetweenthebehaviourofGDPandprivateconsumptionperhead,
thelatteratalowerrate,asreflectedbyitsdecliningcontributiontoGDP(Figure11).
22
SolelyduringthelongdecadeprecedingWorldWarIandtheCivilWar(1936-39)did
privateconsumptiongrowthostensiblyfallbehindthatofGDP.Inshort,itcanbeclaimed
thatthefruitsofgrowthwerepassedontothepopulationsopresentprivate
consumptionwasnotsacrificedtogreaterfutureconsumptionand,hence,noparallelism
canbedrawnwiththeexperiencesofEastAsiancountries(Young,1995).
II.3LabourProductivity
TheevolutionofGDPperheadcanbefurtherdecomposedintolabourproductivity
andtheamountoflabourusedperperson.Thus,GDPperperson(GDP/N)canbe
expressedasGDPperhourworked(GDP/H),ameasureoflabourproductivity,andthe
numberofhoursworkedperperson(H/N),ameasureofeffort.
GDP/N=GDP/H*H/N(1)
Andusinglowcasetodenoteratesofvariation,
(gdp/n)=(gdp/h)+(h/n)(2)
Figure12.PerCapitaGDPanditsComponents,1850-2015(logs)
GDPperheadandperhourworkedevolvedalongsideover1850-2015,even
thoughlabourproductivitygrewatafasterpace–labourproductivityincreased23-fold
23
againstnearly16-foldbyGDPperhead-astheamountsofhoursworkedperperson
shrank-fromabout1,000hoursperperson-yeartolessthan700-(Table2andFigure12).
Thus,itcanbeclaimedthatgainsinoutputperheadareattributabletoproductivitygains,
withphasesofacceleratingGDPperhead,suchasthe1920sortheGoldenAge(19501974),matchingthoseoffasterlabourproductivitygrowth.
Table2
GDPperHeadGrowthanditsComponents,1850-2015(%)
(averageyearlylogarithmicrates)
PerCapitaGDP
1850-2015
GDP/Hour Hours/Population
1.7
1.9
-0.2
0.7 0.8 -0.1
1950-1974
5.3
5.8
-0.5
1974-2007
2.5
2.7
-0.1
2007-2015
-0.8
1.3
-2.1
PanelA
1850-1950
PanelB
1.3 1.2 1883-1920
0.6
0.8
-0.2
1920-1929
2.8
3.1
-0.3
1929-1950
-0.9
-1.0
0.1
1950-1958
5.0
5.1
-0.1
1958-1974
5.5
6.1
-0.7
1974-1984
1.4
5.6
-4.1
1984-1992
4.2
2.7
1.5
1992-2007
2.4
0.7
1.7
2007-2013
-1.9
1.6
-3.5
2013-2015
2.6
0.5
2.1
2.1 2.3 1855-1866
0.4
0.1
0.3
1866-1873
2.9
2.5
0.4
1873-1883
0.6
1.0
-0.4
1883-1892
0.6
0.9
-0.4
1892-1901
0.7
0.6
0.1
1901-1913
0.5
0.7
-0.2
1913-1918
-0.6
-0.2
-0.4
1850-1883
0.0
PanelC
1850-1855
-0.2
1918-1929
3.1
3.4
-0.3
1929-1935
-1.5
-1.6
0.0
1935-1939
-6.9
-5.9
-1.0
1939-1944
4.8
4.5
0.4
1944-1950
-1.0
-1.6
0.7
24
Acloserlookatthelastfourdecadesreveals,however,significantdiscrepancies
overlongswings.Infact,apatterncanbeobservedaccordingtowhichphasesof
accelerationinlabourproductivitycorrespondtothoseofGDPperpersonslowdown,and
viceversa.Thus,periodsofsluggish(1974-84)ornegative(2007-13)percapitaGDPgrowth
paralleledepisodesofvigorousorrecoveringproductivitygrowth,althoughonlyinthe
firstcase,duringthe‘transitiontodemocracy’decade,labourproductivityoffsetthesharp
contractioninhoursworked–resultingfromunemployment-andpreventedadeclinein
GDPperhead.Conversely,theyearsbetweenSpain’saccessiontotheEuropeanUnion
(1985)andtheeveoftheGreatRecesion(2007),particularlysince1992,exhibited
substantialpercapitaGDPgainswhilelabourproductivitysloweddown.Thus,duringthe
threedecadesafterSpainjoinedtheEU,inwhichGDPperheaddoubled,growingat3.0
percentperyear,morethanhalfwascontributedbytheincreaseinhoursworkedper
person.Thus,itcanbeconcludedthatsincethemid-1970stheSpanisheconomyhasbeen
unabletocombineemploymentandproductivitygrowth,withtheimplicationthatsectors
thatexpandedandcreatednewjobs(mostlyinconstructionandservices)wereless
successfulinattractinginvestmentandtechnologicalinnovation.Actually,labour
productivityinconstructionandservicesgrewatayearlyrateof-0.2and0.3percent,
respectively,comparedto1.1percentfortheoveralleconomyover1985-2007.
Gainsinaggregatelabourproductivitycanbebrokendownintothecontribution
madebytheincreaseinoutputperhourworkedineacheconomicsector(internal
productivity)andbytheshiftoflabourfromlessproductivetomoreproductivesectors
(structuralchange).12Thelevelofaggregatelabourproductivity(A),whichisobtainedby
dividingGrossValueAdded(GVA)bythenumberofhoursworked(H)fortheeconomyas
awholeintheyeart,canbeexpressedastheresultofaddinguplabourproductivity
12
AscorrectlypointedoutbyMatthews,FeinsteinandOdling-Smee(1982:248-254),structuralchangeis
notreallyexogenousasitiscausedbytheinteractionbetweenthesupplyanddemandofresources.Hence,
anyattempttoestablishcausalrelationshipsbetweenstructuralchangeandgrowthisflawed.Froma
historicalpointofview,however,perfectfactormobilitydoesnotexistand,consequentlydifferencesof
marginalproductivitybetweensectorstendtoexist,asthemovementofresourcesfromonesectorto
anotherdoesnottakeplaceautomatically.Forthisreasonimprovementsinresourceallocationwill
contributetogrowthduringagivenperiodoftime.Itisalsothecasethatevenwhenmarginalproductivityis
thesameindifferentindustries,theywillnotallgrowatthesamerate.Growthwilldependontheiruseof
technologicalinnovationandtheexistenceofincreasingreturns.
25
(GVAi/Hi)foreacheconomicsectori(i=1,2,...n),weightedbyeachsector’scontribution
tototalhoursworked(Hi/H).13
At=(GVA/H)t=Σ(GVAi/Hi)t(Hi/H)t=Σ(AitUit)(3)
WhereAiisgrossvalueaddedperhourworkedinsectoriandUiisthecontribution
ofsectoritototalhoursworked.
Usinglowercaseletterstorepresentratesofchange,
at=ΣaitUit+ΣAituit(4)
Themethodusuallyemployedinthiscalculation,shift-shareanalysis,involves
estimating,inthefirstplace,internalproductivitygrowth(thefirsttermontheright-hand
sideofexpression(4),thatis,theresultobtainedbyaddingupthelabourproductivity
growthofGVAperhourworkedineacheconomicsectorweightedbytheinitial
compositionofemployment(expressedinhoursworked).Thedifferencebetween
aggregateproductivityandinternalproductivitywillthenprovidethecontributionof
structuralchange.
Thisprocedureisbasedontheassumptionthat,intheabsenceoflabourshift
betweensectors,eachsector’sproductivitywouldhavebeenidenticaltotheactualones.
Thisisanunrealisticassumptionwhenlabourisrapidlyabsorbedbyindustryandservices,
productivityinthesesectorstendstostagnateorevendecline,asitisthecaseinSpain.14
Itwouldappearmoreplausibletoassumethatagriculturalproductivitypartlyimproved,
say,between1950and1975,duetothereductioninthenumberofhoursworked.
Furthermore,duringthe‘transitiontodemocracy’(1975-85)GVAperhourworkedin
industrywouldhavegrownmoreslowlyhademploymentnotfallenasaresultofthe
industrialrestructuringwhicheliminatedlesscompetitivebranches.Therefore,inTable3,
thecontributionofstructuralchangetotheincreaseinproductivityobtainedusingthe
conventionalshift-shareanalysisrepresentsalowerbound.
13
IdrawonBroadberry(1998)inthesubsequentparagraphs.
Broadberry(1998)putsforwardtheideathatifweaccept,asproposedbyKindleberger(1967),that
labourmovingfromagriculturetoindustryandservicesissurpluslabour,thenitmustbeassumedthatthe
hypotheticalreturnofthislabourtotheagriculturalsectorwouldhaveanegativeeffectonproductivity.
14
26
Table3
LabourProductivityGrowthandStructuralChange,1850-2015(%)
(averageyearlylogarithmicrates)
InternalProductivity
1850-2015
GVA/Hourworked
(shift-share)
1.9
2.1
StructuralChange
InternalProductivity
StructuralChange
Lowerbound (modifiedshift-share)
Upperbound
-0.2
1.2
0.7
PanelA
1850-1950
0.8
0.5
0.2
0.4
0.3
1950-1974
6.0
5.4
0.6
3.6
2.4
1974-2007
2.5
2.9
-0.4
1.6
0.6
2007-2015
1.4
1.5
-0.1 -0.2
1.6
1.2 1.1 0.1 1.1 0.1
1883-1920
0.8
0.7
0.1
0.6
0.2
1920-1929
2.9
2.5
0.5
1.5
1.5
1929-1950
-1.0
-1.2
0.3
-1.4
0.4
1950-1958
5.0
4.6
0.4
3.0
2.0
1958-1974
6.5
5.9
0.6
4.4
2.1
1974-1984
5.6
5.6
0.0
4.5
1.1
1984-1992
2.1
2.3
-0.3
0.8
1.3
1992-2007
0.6
0.7
-0.1
0.0
0.7
2007-2013
1.8
2.1
-0.2
1.9
0.0
2013-2015
0.1 -0.1
0.1
-0.3
0.4
PanelB
1850-1883
PanelC
1850-1855
2.7 2.8 -0.2 2.5 0.1
1855-1866
0.0
-0.1
0.1
-0.1
0.1
1866-1873
2.6
2.6
0.1
2.4
0.3
1873-1883
0.8
0.5
0.3
0.4
0.4
1883-1892
0.9
0.8
0.1
0.7
0.2
1892-1901
0.5
0.5
0.0
0.4
0.1
1901-1913
0.7
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.5
1913-1918
0.3
0.5
-0.2
0.4
-0.1
1918-1929
3.1
2.7
0.4
1.8
1.2
1929-1935
-1.4
-1.4
0.0
-1.4
0.0
1935-1939
-5.8
-5.9
0.2
-8.0
2.2
1939-1944
3.9
4.0
-0.1
3.7
0.2
1944-1950
-1.5
-2.2
0.8
-2.7
1.2
27
Alternatively,anupperboundcanbederivedusingamodifiedversionofshiftshareanalysis.15Thecontributionofstructuralchangeisderivedbysubtractingfrom
aggregateproductivitythefigurethatwouldresultbyweightingoutputperhourworked
growthineachsectoraccordingtoitscontributiontototalemploymentintheinitialyear,
butwithanexceptionforthosesectorswhosecontributiontoemploymentfalls(for
example,agricultureovertheentiretimespanconsideredandindustrysince1975).In
suchacase,thedifferentialbetweentherateofvariationinhoursworkedforthe
economyasawholeandfortherelevantsectorwouldbesubtractedfromthelatter’s
productivitygrowth.16AsTable3shows,thedifferencebetweenupperandlowerbound
canbesignificantforsomeperiods.
Accordingtotheupperboundestimate,structuralchangewouldaccountfor38
percentoftheaggregateproductivitygrowthachievedoverthelast166years.Thisfigure
isnotfarbelowfromBroadberry’sfindingsforGermanyandtheUnitedStates.17During
thefirsthundredyearsunderconsideration,structuralchangecontributedbetweenonefourthandtwo-fifthsoflabourproductivitygrowh,dependingonwhethertoconventional
ormodifiedshift-shareisused.Acloserlookindicatesthatstructuraltransformationtook
placebetweenthe1870sand1929,with1873-1883,thelongdecadebeforeWorldWarI
andthe1920sasthemostintenseepisodes.Accordingtothemodifiedshift-share,itisin
theGoldenAge(1950-74)whenstructuralchangemadethelargerandmoresustained
contributiontoproductivitygrowth.Since1975anduptotheGreatRecessionstructural
changeaccountedformorethanone-thirdoftheincreaseinaggregatelabour
productivity(upperboundestimate)andavoidedanevendeeperproductivity
decelerationafter1984.Inthisphase,thetransferoflabourawayfromagriculture(which
stillabsorbedone-fifthofthetotalnumberofhoursworkedin1975anddeclinedat-4per
centannuallyupto2007)wasaccompaniedbyasustaineddestructionofemploymentin
15
Itprovidesanupperboundbecauseitdoesnottakeintoaccountdifferencesinlevelsofphysicaland
humancapitalperworkeracrosseconomicsectors.Ideally,thecontributionofstructuralchangeshouldbe
calculatedintermsoftotalfactorproductivityratherthanintermsoflabourproductivity.
16
Broadberry(1998)suggestedthisprocedure.Inthiscaseinternalproductivitywouldbecalculatedas
Σa´itUit,wherea´it=ait–(ht-hit),ifuit<0(hrepresentinghoursworked)
17
Broadberry(1998:390)findsthat,over1870-1990,structuralchangewouldaccountforupto45.7and
50.3percentofproductivitygrowthinGermany(1.75percent)andtheU.S.(1.4percent),respectively.
28
lesscompetitivemanufacturingindustries,whichintensifiedduringthe‘transitionto
democracy’decade(-3.8percentyearlydeclineofhoursworkedinindustryduring197484).Againonthebasisofthemodifiedshift-shareapproach,structuralchangeprevented
labourproductivityfromstallingsince2007andallowedmoderateincreaseinoutputper
hourworkedduringtheGreatRecession.
Aclearerpictureoftheevolutionofthenumberofhoursworkedperperson,
(H/N),isobtainedbybreakingitdownintoitscomponents(Table4).Thus,(H/N)equals
hoursworkedperfull-timeequivalentworker,L,(H/L),timestheparticipationrate,-that
is,theratioofL,totheworkingagepopulation,WAN-,(L/WAN),timestheshareofWAN
intotalpopulation,N,(WAN/N),
(H/N)=(H/L)*(L/WAN)*(WAN/N)(5)
Thatinratesofchange(lowercaseletters),canbeexpressedas:
(h/l)=(h/l)+(l/wan)+(wan/n)(6)
Figure13.Hoursperfull-timeequivalentworker,1850-2015
ChangesinhoursperFTEworker-year,whichfellfrom2,800bymid-nineteenth
centurytolessthan1,900atthebeginningofthetwentieth-firstcenturyrepresentthe
29
maindriveroftheamountofworkperperson,especiallyinperiodsofindustrialization
andurbanizationsuchasthe1920s(towhichthegradualadoptionoftheeighthoursper
daystandardalsocontributed)andtheGoldenAge(1950-74)(Figure13).
Table4
HoursWorkedperHeadGrowthanditsComposition,1850-2015(%)
(averageyearlylogarithmicrates)
Hoursworked/N
Hours/FTEworker
FTEworker/WAN
WAN/N
-0.2
-0.3
0.0
0.0
-0.1 -0.1 0.0 1950-1974
-0.5
-0.5
0.3
-0.3
1974-2007
-0.1
-0.6
0.2
0.3
2007-2015
-2.1
0.2
-1.8
-0.5
1850-2015
PanelA
1850-1950
0.1
PanelB
1850-1883
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
1883-1920
-0.2
-0.1
-0.1
0.0
1920-1929
-0.3
-0.5
0.0
0.1
1929-1950
0.1
-0.1
-0.1
0.3
1950-1958
-0.1
-0.3
0.6
-0.3
1958-1974
-0.7
-0.6
0.2
-0.2
1974-1984
-4.1
-1.7
-2.8
0.3
1984-1992
1.5
-0.4
1.3
0.6
1992-2007
1.7
0.0
1.5
0.2
2007-2013
-3.5
0.3
-3.3
-0.5
2013-2015
2.1
-0.1
2.7
-0.5
-0.2 -0.3 0.0 0.1
1855-1866
0.3
0.1
0.0
0.2
1866-1873
0.4
0.2
0.3
-0.1
1873-1883
-0.4
-0.1
-0.2
-0.1
1883-1892
-0.4
-0.1
-0.2
-0.1
1892-1901
0.1
-0.1
0.1
0.0
1901-1913
-0.2
-0.1
0.0
-0.1
1913-1918
-0.4
-0.3
-0.3
0.1
1918-1929
-0.3
-0.4
0.0
0.1
1929-1935
0.0
-0.4
0.2
0.2
1935-1939
-1.0
0.0
-1.3
0.2
1939-1944
0.4
0.0
-0.1
0.4
1944-1950
0.7
0.0
0.2
0.5
PanelC
1850-1855
30
Changesintheparticipationratealsomadeacontribution.Thus,inthe1950s,it
mitigatedthedeclineinhoursworkedperperson.Duringthe‘transitiontodemocracy’
decade(1975-84)thedeclineintheparticipationrate,duetodramaticsurgein
unemployment(largelyresultingfromtheimpactoftheoilshocksandtheexposureto
internationalcompetitionontraditionallyshelteredindustrialsectors,plusthereturnof
migrantsfromEurope),explainedtwo-thirdsofthecontractionofthenumberofhours
workedperperson.Theremainderwasattributabletoreductioninhoursperworkerdue
totradeunions’higherbargainingpowerandindustrialre-structuring.Again,duringthe
GreatRecession(2008-13),anothersurgeinunemploymentmadeparticipationrate
accountformostofthecontractioninhoursworkedperperson.Conversely,between
Spain’sEUaccessionandtheGreatRecession(1985-2007),theincreaseinthe
participationratewasthemaincontributor(88percent)totheincreaseinthenumberof
hoursworkedperperson,helpedbyincreasingfemaleparticipationrateandthepost1990inflowofmigrants.Again,theriseintheparticipationrate,asunemploymenthas
graduallydeclined,isamainactorinthepost-2013recoveryinhoursworkedperperson.
Lastly,ademographicgift,asthedependencyratefellincreasingtheshareofpotentially
activeovertotalpopulation,preventedafurtherdeclineofhoursworkedperperson
duringthe1930s,contributedtoitsrecoveryinthe1940s,andhelpedthesurgein
employmentover1984-1992.
II.4Spain’sPerformanceinComparativePerspective
AlongrunviewofSpain’seconomicperformancecannotbecompletewithout
placingitincomparativeperspective.InFigure14Spain’srealGDPperheadispresented
alongestimatesforotherlargeWesternEuropeancountries,Italy,France,theUnited
Kingdom,andGermany,plustheUnitedStates,theeconomicleaderthatrepresentsthe
technologicalfrontier,allexpressedinpurchasing-power-parityadjusted2011dollarsto
allowforcountries’differencesinpricelevels(Figure14).18Acaveatisneededaboutthis
18
GDPlevelsin2011,convertedinto‘international’dollarsusingEKSpurchasingpowerparity(PPP)
exchangerates(WorldBank,2013)http://siteresources.worldbank.org/ICPEXT/Resources/ICP_2011.html,
havebeenprojectedbackwardswithpercapitaGDPvolumeseriesthat,inthecaseofSpain,correspondto
thenewhistoricalestimateswithpost-1958hybridlinearinterpolation.Fortherestofcountries,volume
31
kindofexercise.PercapitaincomelevelsobtainedthroughbackwardprojectionofPPPadjustedGDPlevelsforagivenbenchmarkyear(2011,asinthiscase,or1990in
Maddison’sestimates)withvolumeindicesderivedatnationalrelativepricesprovidea
convenientwayofcomparingofcountries’levelsovertime,asitiseasytocomputeand
doesnotalternationalgrowthrates.However,italsopresentsahugeindexnumber
problemthatgetsbiggerasthetimespanconsideredwidensrenderingcomparisonsless
significant.Thisissobecausetheprocedureimplicitlyassumesthatthebasketofgoods
andservicesandthestructureofrelativepricesforthebenchmarkyearremainunaltered
overtime,somethingdefinitivelymisleadingaslongrungrowthisaboutchangeinrelative
prices(PradosdelaEscosura,2000).Asamatteroffact,thistypeofseriesonlyprovides
aneffectivecomparisonbetweenthelevelofthebenchmarkyear(2011inFigure14)and
thatofanyotheryearattheformer’srelativeprices.
Figure14.Spain’sComparativeRealPerCapitaGDP(2011EKS$)(logs)
seriesfromtheMaddisonProject(2013),http://www.ggdc.net/maddison/maddison-project/home.htm,
completedwithdatafromConferenceBoardhttp://www.conference-board.org/data/economydatabase/.
32
SeveralfindingsemergefromFigure14.Firstly,Spain’slong-termgrowthappears
tobesimilartothatofwesternnations.19Secondly,Spain’slevelofGDPperheadis
systematicallylowerthanotherlargewesternEuropeancountries.Lastly,the
improvementinSpain’sGDPperheaddidnotfollowamonotonicpattern,afeaturethat
shareswithItalyandGermany,and,tolessextent,withFrance,butdiffersfromthe
steadyprogressexperiencedbytheU.K.andtheU.S.
Table5
ComparativePerCapitaGDPGrowth,1850-2015(%)
(averageannuallogarithmicrates)
1850-2015
PanelA
1850-1913
1913-1950
1950-1973
1973-2007
2007-2015
PanelB
1850-1883
1883-1913
1913-1918
1918-1929
1929-1939
1939-1950
1950-1960
1960-1973
1973-1992
1992-2007
Spain
1.7
Italy
1.5
France
1.6
UK
1.4
USA
1.7
Germany
1.7
0.9
0.3
5.3
2.6
-0.8
0.7
0.9
5.2
1.9
-1.6
1.2
1.1
3.9
1.6
-0.2
1.2
0.9
2.4
2.2
0.2
1.7
1.6
2.4
1.9
0.4
1.5
0.2
4.9
1.6
1.1
1.3
0.6
0.4
1.1
1.1
1.4
1.4
1.0
1.8
1.5
1.2
1.8
-0.6
3.1
-3.7
1.7
3.7
6.4
2.9
2.4
-1.0
2.2
0.7
0.6
5.4
5.0
2.5
1.2
-7.5
6.1
0.2
0.7
3.6
4.2
1.7
1.4
2.1
0.1
1.3
0.9
2.2
2.5
1.5
2.9
1.3
1.8
-0.5
3.4
1.7
3.0
1.8
2.0
-4.0
2.8
2.9
-3.0
6.9
3.4
1.8
1.3
Thefirsttworesultswouldlendsupporttotheviewthattherootsofmostof
today’sdifferenceinGDPperpersonbetweenSpainandadvancedcountriesshouldbe
searchedforinthepre-1850era.20Nonetheless,acloserlookrevealsthatlong-rungrowth
before1950wasclearlylowerinSpain(asinItaly)thanintheadvancedcountries(Table
5).Sluggishgrowthover1883-1913andnottakingadvantageofitsWorldWarIneutrality
tocatchup,partlyaccountforit.Furthermore,theprogressachievedinthe1920swas
outweighedbySpain’sshort-livedrecoveryfromtheDepression,broughttoahaltbyCivil
19
Alternatively,Ihavecarriedouttheexercisewiththe1990ICPbenchmarkestimatefavouredby
Maddison(andsofarbytheMaddisonProject)withrathersimilarresults.
20
Anewassessmentofpre-1850SpainisprovidedbyÁlvarez-NogalandPradosdelaEscosura(2013).
33
War(1936-39),andalonglastingandweakpost-warreconstruction.Infact,althoughless
destructivethanWorldWarII,anddespitebeingSpainnon-belligerentinWorldWarII,
post-CivilWar’srecoveryinSpainwaslongerandlessintensethaninthewarringwestern
Europeancountriesafter1945.
Thus,Spainfellbehindbetween1850and1950(Figure15).Thesecondhalfofthe
nineteenthcenturyandtheearlytwentiethcenturywitnessedsustainedpercapitaGDP
growthwhileparadoxicallythegapwiththeindustrialisedcountrieswidenedover18831913.Moreover,thegapdeepenedduringthefirsthalfofthetwentiethcentury.
Figure15.Spain’sRelativeRealPerCapitaGDP(2011EKS$)(%)
Theoppositewastruefrom1950to2007.TheGoldenAge(1950-73),especially,
theperiodsince1960(acommonfeatureofcountriesintheEuropeanPeriphery:Greece,
Portugal,Ireland)standsoutasyearsofoutstandingperformanceandcatchinguptothe
advancednations.Steady,althoughslower,growthafterthetransitiontodemocracy
years(1974-84),allowedSpaintokeepcatchingupuntil2007.
Tosumup,theliberalregimeoftheRestauración(1875-1923),whichprovided
politicalstability,largelyfailedtoofferincentivesforacceleratedgrowth;the1930sand
34
1940s,withtheCivilWaranditsslowandautarkicrecovery;the‘transitiontodemocracy’
decadeafterGeneralFranco’sdeath(1975);andtheGreatRecession(2008-13),standout
asthosephasesresponsibleforSpain’sfallingbehindWesternEurope.Conversely,over
1950-2007,especiallyduringtheGoldenAge,Spainoutperformedtheadvancednations
improvingherrelativeposition.Onthewhole,Spain’srelativepositiontowestern
countrieshasevolvedalongawide-Ushape,deterioratingto1950(exceptforthe1870s
and1920s)andrecoveringthereafter(butfortheepisodesofthetransitiontodemocracy
andtheGreatRecession).Thus,atthebeginningofthetwentieth-firstcenturySpanish
realGDPperheadrepresentedasimilarproportionofUSandGermany’sincometothe
onebackinmid-nineteenthcentury,althoughhadsignificantlyimprovedwithrespectto
theUKand,keptasimilarpositiontothatofthe1870swithregardtoFrance.Lastly,
comparedtoItaly,Spainhasreachedparityaswasalsothecaseinthelatenineteenth
centuryand,again,inthe1920s.
Afinalreminder:thechoiceofsplicingprocedureforthemodernnationalaccounts
canresultinfarfromnegligibledifferencesintherelativepositionofacountryoverthe
longrun.Furthermore,thedifferencesbetweentheresultingseriesofinterpolationand
retropolationproceduresappearmuchmoredramaticwhenplacedinalong-run
perspective,thatis,whenthesplicednationalaccountsareprojectedbackwardsintothe
nineteenthcenturywithvolumeindicestakenfromhistoricalaccountsseries.Thisisdue
tothefactthatmostcountries,includingSpain,grewataslowerpacebefore1950,soits
percapitaGDPlevelbymid-twentiethcenturylargelydeterminesitsearlierrelative
positionincountryrankings.
Inordertoillustratethispoint,IhaveconstructedlongrunestimatesofrealGDP
perheadforSpainusingfor1958-2015theretropolatedseriesandplacedthemalongthe
seriesobtainedthroughinterpolation(Figure16).21Itcanbeobservedthatwhenadopting
theretropolatedseries,SpainovercomesItalyintermsofGDPperheadover1850-1950
(butfortheCivilWaryears),matchingFranceandGermanyintheearly1880s.
21
Itisworthnotingthatnationalaccountsseriesforpre-1970Italyhavebeensplicedthorughlinear
interpolation(Baffigi,2013).
35
Figure16Spain’sComparativeRealPerCapitaGDPwithAlternativeSplicing(2011EKS$)(logs)
Moreover,IhavecomputedSpain’spositionrelativetoFranceandtheUnited
Kingdom(Figure17).Thechoiceofyardstickcountriesobeystothepurposeofcomparing
acountryoffastgrowthanddeepstructuralchangeinthesecondhalfofthetwentieth
century,suchasSpain,withothersmorematureandinwhicheconomicgrowth
proceededatasteadierpace.Thereasonisthatitisfastgrowthanddeepstructural
transformationwhatproducesthelargedisparitiesbetweennewandoldbenchmark
nationalaccountsseriesintheoverlappingyear.Inmostcountries,nationalaccountshave
beensplicedthroughretropolation.However,intheseyardstickcountriesthemethodof
splicingnationalaccountsisnotarelevantissuebecause,astheirstructural
transformationwaslargelycompletedbeforethemodernnationalaccountsera(postWorldWar),differencesbetweennewandoldnationalaccountsestimatesaresmallat
theoverlappingyear.
Accordingtothefiguresderivedfromusingtheretropolationsplicingprocedure,
duringthesecondhalfofthenineteenthcentury,realpercapitaGDPinSpainwouldhave
matchedthatofFranceinthemid-1850sand,again,betweenthemid-1870sandmid-
36
1880s.Furthermore,whenitsretropolatedseriesareconsidered,Spainwouldhave
practicallymatchedBritishpercapitaincomeduringthelastquarterofthetwentieth
centurywithasorpassoin1974and,again,atthebeginningofthe1990s.Theseresults
areinstarkcontrastwiththosederivedbysplicingnationalaccountsthrough
interpolation.Thus,SpanishGDPperheadwouldhaverepresentedabovefour-fifthsof
theFrenchover1973-84andwouldhaverepresentedlessthan90percentoftheBritish
withabrieftake-overduring1990-93.Itcanbe,then,concludedthatwhateverthe
measurementerrorembodiedintheinterpolationproceduremaybe,itsresultsappear
farmoreplausiblethanthoseresultingfromtheconventionalretropolationapproach.
Figure17Spain’sRealPerCapitaGDPrelativetoFranceandtheUKwithAlternativeSplicing(2011EKS$)
37
III.MEASURINGGDP,1850-1958:SUPPLYSIDE.
Inhistoricalnationalaccounts,asformostdevelopingcountries,themostreliable
andeasiesttoestimateGDPfiguresarethoseobtainedthroughtheproduction
approach.22Asformostdevelopingcountries,realproducthasbeencomputedfrom
physicalindicatorsratherthanasaresidualobtainedfromindependentlydeflatedoutput
andinputs.Thecomponents'methodhasprevailedovertheindicators'methodasmuch
asthedatapermitedit,andbothdirectandindirectestimatingprocedureshavebeen
employed.23
EstimatingconstantGrossValueAddedseriesinvolvedseveralsteps.Inthefirst
place,Laspeyresquantityindiceswerebuiltupforeachmajorcomponentofoutputusing
1913,1929and1958valueaddedasalternativeweights.Valueaddedfor1913and1929
benchmarkswascomputedeitherthroughdirectestimateor,moreoften,grossvalue
addedlevelsfor1958,takenfromtheinput-outputtable(TIOE58)andthenational
accounts(CNE58)wereprojectedbackwardsto1913and1929(withquantityandprice
indicesexpressedas1958=1).Then,inanattempttoallowforchangesinrelativeprices,
thesevolumeindicesweresplicedintoasingleseries.Theestimateswith1913weights
havebeenacceptedfor1850-1913,whilevariableweightedgeometricaveragesofthe
indicesobtainedwith1913and1929(1929and1958)weightshasbeenadoptedfor19131929(1929-1958),aprocedurethatallocatesahigherweightingtothecloserbenchmark.
Lastly,avolumeindexofRealGrossValueAdded(GVA)for1850-1958wasconstructedby
weightingoutputchainvolumeLaspeyresindicesforeachmajorbranchofeconomic
activitywiththeirsharesintotalgrossvalueaddedfor1958.
Anefforttoconstructpriceindiceswascarriedoutfromawiderangeofpriceseries
ofunevenqualityandcoverage.24ChainPaaschepriceindicesforagriculture,industryand
serviceswerebuiltup.25Infact,sincevolumeindicesareofLaspeyrestype,thatis,
22
Cf.Heston(1994)forasurveyofdevelopingcountriesGDPestimates.
ByacomponentismeantavariablethatisanelementofGDP(i.e.,agriculturaloutput)andbyanindicator
avariablethatiscorrelatedwithrealoutputwhenthelatterisavailable(i.e.,tons-kmtransportedbythe
railways)(BalkeandGordon,1989:41).
24
Actually,thedearthofdataon19thcenturypriceshaspreventedeconomichistoriansfrombuildingprice
indices,andSardá(1948)wholesalepriceindexstillremainswidelyuseddespitegeneralcomplaintsabout
itslowandbiasedcoverage.Availableindicesforwholesalepricesintheearly20thcenturyhavenotbeen
23
38
QL=Σqipo/Σqopo,(7)
Paaschepriceindices,
PP=Σqipi/Σqipo,(8)
are,then,requiredtoderivecurrentvalues,
V=QL*PP=Σqipi/Σqopo(9)
whereqandparequantitiesandpricesatthebaseyearooranyotheryeari.
Yearlyseriesofgrossvalueaddedatcurrentpriceswerederivedforeachbranchof
economicactivitybyprojectingbackwardsitslevelatthe1958benchmark,providedby
officialnationalaccounts(CNE58),withitsLaspeyresquantityandPaaschepriceindices,
expressedwithreferenceto1958=1.26TotalGrossValueAddedatcurrentpriceswas
derivedbyaggregationofsectoralvalueadded.AnimplicitPaascheGVAdeflatorwas
calculatedbydividingcurrentandconstantpriceseries.Addingindirecttaxes(netof
subsidies)tototalcurrentGVAprovidednominalGDPatmarketprices.RealGDPat
marketpriceswasobtainedbydeflatingnominalGDPwiththeGVAdeflator.
Fourmajorbranchesofeconomicactivityaretakenintoaccount,a)agriculture,
forestryandfishing;b)manufacturing,extractiveindustriesandutilities;c)construction;
andd)services.
III.1Agriculture,Forestry,andFishing
III.1.1Agriculture
Twostepswerefollowedincomputingagriculturalvalueadded.27Firstly,final
output,thatis,totalproductionlessseedandanimalfeed,wasconstructed.Then,gross
challengedsofar(asitisalsothecaseofthepriceindexbuiltbytheComisióndelPatrónOro,GoldStandard
Committee,in1929.ConsumerpriceindicesareprovidedinReherandBallesteros(1993),Ballesteros
(1997),andMaluquerdeMotes(2006,2013).
25
Unfortunately,itwasnotalwayspossibletoderivePaaschepriceindicesforeverysub-branchofeach
sectorofeconomicactivity.Insuchacase,Laspeyreschain-indiceswereused.Thisproblem,resultingfrom
defectivestatistics,isalsocommonintoday'snationalaccounts(Cf.CorralesandTaguas,1991).
26
Thisprocedureismostcommoninpresent-daydevelopingcountries(Heston,1994:35).Officialnational
accountswith1958base(ContabilidadNacionaldeEspaña1958,CNE58)fortheyears1954-1964are
presentedinInstitutodeEstudiosFiscales(1969).
27
TheMinistryofAgriculture(MinisteriodeAgricultura,1979)computedfinaloutputandvalueaddedin
agriculturefortheyears1950-1958.Aggregatenationalaccounts(CNE58),however,areonlyavailablesince
1954.
39
valueaddedwasderivedbysubstractingpurchasesofindustrialandservicesinputs,from
finaloutput.
Unfortunately,annualdataoncropsandlivestockoutputareincompleteandtheir
coverageunevenovertime.Nonetheless,availabledataallowedme:
a)Tocomputeagriculturalfinaloutputatdifferentbenchmarks:circa1890,1898/1902,
1909/13,1929/33,1950,and1960/64byvaluingphysicaloutputforeachproductatfarmgateprices.28
b)And,then,toderive,Laspeyresrealoutput(QL)foreachbenchmark(bk)bydeflating
currentvalues(V)withaPaaschechainpriceindexbuiltonalargesampleofagricultural
goods(qandparequantitiesandpricesatthebaseyearooranyotheryeari).29Thatis,
QLbk=Vbk/PbkPbk=1890,1898/1902,1909/13,1929/33,1950,1960(10)
beingPbkPachainPaasche, PbkP=Σpipqip/Σpip-1qip
Thelackofquantitativeevidenceonlowacreage,highvaluecropssuchasfruitsand
vegetablesthatincreaseitsimportanceathigherincomelevelsandurbanization,makes
thedeflationofcurrentvalueestimatesapreferablealternativetotheconstructionof
volumeindicesonreducedquantitativeinformation.30Actually,pricestendtomove
togetherwithincloserboundsthanquantities.31
28
Unfortunately,sincecoveragewasincomplete,assumptionsabouttheproductionofseveralcropsin1890
and1900weremade.Cf.Table6.IamindebtedtoJamesSimpsonforkindlyallowingmeaccesstothe
unpublishedagriculturalquantityandpricedatasetfor1890-1930thatunderlieshisownwork(Simpson
1994).
29
Cf.Foritscoverage,cf.Appendix2,TableA2.3.Itmustbenoticedthatfinaloutputandvalueaddedseries
areconstructedfortheentireperiod1850-1958despitethefactthatMinistryofAgriculture’s(1979)figures
atcurrentpriceswerepreferredfor1950-1958.Thereasonwhytheestimateisextendedoverthe1950sis
todisposeofhomogeneousdeflatorsoverthewholetimespan.
30
Thisisalsoacommonfeatureofdevelopingcountriestoday,cf.Heston(1994).
31
TherearedifferencesinlevelsofrealfinalagriculturaloutputbetweenTable6andSimpson(1994)that
leadtoproductivitydifferences.Thediscrepanciesmainlystemfromthefactthat,inTable6,adeflator
derivedfromthecoveredoutput(thatis,goodswhosequantitiesandpricesareavailable)isassumedtobe
representativefortheentireagriculturalsectoranditis,therefore,usedtodeflatecurrentfinaloutput.
Simpson(1994),inturn,assumedthatthequantityindexthatresultsfromthecoveredoutputis
representativeofagricultureasawhole.Thereisalong-standingdebateaboutwhichapproachis
preferable.Cf.Maddison(1995),p.231-232.
40
c)Next,realfinalagriculturaloutputserieswasderivedsplicingeachpairofadjacent
benchmarkswithayearlyindexoffinaloutputbuiltonreducedinformation.32The
procedurewastoprojecteachbenchmarkwithaquantityindexconstructedatitsrelative
pricesandtocompute,then,aweightedgeometricaverageoftheseriesresultingfrom
eachpairofadjacentbenchmarks,inwhichthecloserbenchmarktoeachparticularyear
wasallocatedahigherweighting,
QLt=(QLbko*OLt)(n-t)/(n-o)*(QLbkn*OLt)(t-o)/(n-o)=OLt*(QLbko)(n-t)/(n-o)(QLbkn)(t-o)/(n-o)(11)
whereQisLaspeyresrealfinaloutputindex,OisaLaspeyresquantityindex(builton
reducedinformation)foryeart,bkrepresentseachbenchmarkestimate,andoandnare
theinitialandfinalyearswithineachperiod.33
d)Lastly,agriculturalfinaloutputatcurrentpriceswasobtainedbyextrapolating
the1958leveloffinaloutput(CEN58)backwardswiththerealfinaloutputindexanda
Paaschepriceindex.34ThePaaschepriceindexwasconstructedbyinterpolatingeachpair
ofadjacentchainpricebenchmarks(Table6,column2)withayearlyPaaschepriceindex
derivedonreducedinformation.35Thelinkageprocedureforeachpairofadjacent
benchmarkswasprojectingeachbenchmarkpricelevelwiththevariationsoftheannual
priceindexand,then,computingavariablegeometricmeaninwhichthecloser
benchmarktoaparticularyearreceivedthehigherweighting.36
32
Thatis,onalargesampleofagriculturalproduce.Itisworthmentioningthattotalproductionat
benchmarkyearsover1891-1931havealreadybeenprovidedbyGEHR(1983)andSimpson(1994).Also,
annualquantityindicesfortotalproductionfor1891-1935arepresentedinComín(1987)andGEHR(1987).
33
Thus,for1890-1913,aweightedgeometricaverageof1891/93and1909/13basedquantityindiceswas
taken;for1913-1929,aweightedgeometricaverageof1909/13and1929/33basedquantityindices;for
1929-1950aweightedgeometricaverageof1929/33and1950basedquantityindices;andfor1950-1958,a
weightedgeometricaverageof1950and1960basedquantityindices.For1850-1890,inturn,an1890basedLaspeyresagriculturalquantityindexwasaccepted.
34
ThelevelofagriculturalfinaloutputderivesfromMinisteriodeAgricultura(1979b:155).
35
Thatis,onthebasisofthesamevariablesampleofproduceonwhichtheindexoffinaloutputwas
constructed.
36
Thus,for1890-1913,aweightedgeometricaverageof1891/93and1909/13basedpriceindiceswas
taken;for1913-1929,aweightedgeometricaverageof1909/13and1929/33basedpriceindices;for19291950aweightedgeometricaverageof1929/33and1950basedpriceindices;andfor1950-1958,aweighted
geometricaverageof1950and1960basedpriceindices.For1850-1890,inturn,1890basedLaspeyres
agriculturalpriceindexwasaccepted.
41
Table6
AgriculturalFinalOutput:BenchmarkEstimates,1890-1960/64
(1)
CurrentValue
(MillionPta)
2,795
3,190
3,861
8,919
52,018
a
156,526 c.1890
1898/1902
1909/1913
1929/1933
1950
1960/1964
a
b
(2)
PaaschePrice
ChainIndex
89.63
95.22
100.00
173.76
1173.27
b
2158.34 (3)
LaspeyresVolume
ChainIndex
80.76
86.77
100.00
132.96
114.84
c
187.85 c
Notes: valueat1960prices. 1960pricelevel. 1960prices.
Incompletecoverageledtoassumptionsabouttheproductionofseveralcropsin1890and1900.Total
outputformajorgroups(vegetables,rawmaterials,fruitsandnuts,meat,andpoultryandeggs)was
inferredonthebasisofobservedsample-to-totaloutputratiosfor1909/13.
Sources:Quantities,pricesandvaluesderivefromGEHR(1991),Simpson(1994)(unpublisheddataset),and
theoriginalsourcesquotedthere,andMinisteriodeAgricultura(1979a).
RatiosoffinaloutputtototalproductionforeachcropareshowninAppendix2,TableA2.1.Coefficientsto
transformlivestockoutputintoquantitiesofmeat,woolandmilkarepresentedinAppendix2,TableA2.2.
III.1.1.1Theconstructionofannualquantityandpriceindicesonreducedinformation
Theannualquantityandpriceindicesconstructedonasampleofagricultural
produce,andemployedtointerpolateadjacentbenchmarkestimatesofrealfinaloutput,
deservesomecomments.Atwo-stageprocedurewasfollowedtobuildthequantityindex
inordertopreventundesiredover-representationofparticularcropsinaggregateoutput.
Tengroupsofproductswerefirstlydefined,forwhichindependentindiceswere
constructed.Thisproceduredidnotpreventaddingguessestothedatasinceitwas
assumedthat,withineachgroup,thoseproductsnotincludedinthesamplemoved
exactlylikethosethatwerepartofit.However,themorehomogeneousthegroupof
goodsis,thelessstrongtheimplicitassumptionsofthismethodare.Inanycase,when
outputisdirectlyestimatedfromasampleofproducts,theimplicitassumptionsare
strongerthaninmyproposedtwo-stagecalculationprocedure.37Thus,indexnumbers
37
Cf.Fenoaltea(1988).TableA2.3,inAppendix2,presents,foreverybenchmark-year,thecoverageofeach
groupintheannualquantityindex.Foramoreformaldescriptionofthemethod,seethesectionon
industry.
42
werebuiltformajorgroupsofproducts:cereals,legumes,vegetables,rawmaterials,fruits
andnuts,must,unrefinedoliveoil,meat,poultryandeggs,andmilkandhoney.38
Incompleteproductiondataconstituteamajorobstacletotheconstructionofan
agriculturaloutputindexfornineteenthcenturySpain.Assumptionsandconjecturesare
required,then,toestablishtrendsinagriculturaloutputandtofillinthemissingdata.
Estimatingoutputtrendsunderinformationconstraintscanbeapproachedthrougha)the
volumeproduced,inwhichmostismadeofthescatteredevidenceavailable;b)the
commercializationofcropsdeflatedbythe(expanding)lengthofthetransportation
network(roadandrail)inordertopreventanupwardsbiasintherateofgrowthof
agriculturalproduction,asmercantilizationevolvedfasterthanproductionintheearly
stagesofdevelopment;and,c)thedemandapproach,inwhichoutputisdeductedfrom
anestimateofconsumptionderivedfromademandequationcalibratedwithlevelsof
disposableincome(realwages)andrelativepricesforfood,togetherwiththeirrelevant
elasticities.39Thevolumeandcommercializationapproachesareusedheretoderive
outputlevels.
Datacoverageofcropoutputismuchlowerpriorto1891thanthereafter,anditis
practicallynon-existentfortheperiod1850-1881.40Outputformajoragriculturalgroups
hadtobederivedfromscatteredinformationontheproductionofwheat,barley,must,
rawoliveoilandsugarcaneandbeet,plusfruitexportdatafortheperiod1882-1890,
whosedatacoveragerepresents64percentoffinalproduction(excludinglivestock)in
1890.41Upto1882,non-livestockagriculturaloutputwasproxiedbytradingseriesfor
majorcropsusingevidencefrommaritimeandrailtransportation(thelatterpreviously
38
Inordertoderiveeachsubsectoralindex,physicalquantitiesoffinaloutputwithineachgroupofgoods
werevaluedattheirbenchmark-yearpricesandtheaggregatedvalueexpressedinindexform.Quantities
arederivedmostlyfromGEHR(1989,1991),completedwithComín(1985a),Simpson(1986,1994
unpublisheddataset),andCarreras(1983)forthepre-CivilWaryears;andBarciela(1989)andMinisteriode
Agricultura(1974,1979a)for1940-1950.FortheCivilWar,scantinformation,onlyforcereals,isprovidedin
Barciela(1983,1989)andAlmarcha(1975).
39
Simpson(1994,1995)followedoptiona)whilePradosdelaEscosura(1988)usedbotha)andc).
40
Partialevidencefor1857-1860iscollectedinPradosdelaEscosura(1988).
41
Outputwasinterpolatedformissingyearsinthecasesofwheat(1887)andoliveoil(1887and1889).
43
deflatedbythenetwork'slength).42Thecommercializationseriesincludedcereals,
legumes,wine,oliveoil,fruitsandnuts,andrawmaterials(rawsilk,sugarcane).43
Acceptingtradedcropsasproxiesforcropsoutputimpliesthearguableassumptionofa
highlycommercializedagricultureinwhichbothdistributionandproductionshowa
similarprofile.44Iftradeininagriculturalproductsrosefasterthanoutput,theresulting
indexwouldincorporateanupwardbias.45
Estimatesareevenweakerfortheyears1850-1865,whenonlymaritime
transportationdatawasavailable(coastaltransportsince1857)andinthecasesofwheat
andlegumesoutputhadtobederivedfromconsumptionestimates(byarbitrarily
assumingaconstantconsumptionperheadtimespopulation)adjustedfornetimports.46
Oncequantityserieswereestablishedforthemaincommoditygroups,the
calculationprocedureusedforthepost-1865estimateswasappliedtocomputeoutput.47
Evidenceonlivestockpriorto1905isonlyavailablefor1865and1891.48Meatand
milkoutputwereobtainedbyapplyingconversioncoefficientstolivestocknumbersfor
42
Thereasontoadjustthetradedvolumebythelengthofthenetworkisthatthisaperiodofconstruction
ofroadsandrailwaysthatclearlyreducedtransportationcostand,hence,incentivatecommercialization.I
amindebtedtoAlbertCarrerasforthesuggestion.
43
Specificcommercializationseriesusedweretransportationbyrail(metrictons/km)forcereals(wheatand
rice)andwine;andbysea(includingcoastalandexporttrade)forwine,oliveoil,sugarcaneandbeet,fruits
andnuts.Information(exceptforfruitsandnutsthatcomefromGallegoandPinilla(1996)andEstadística(s)
delComercioExterior)wasderivedfromCarreras(1983,i,386-502).RawwooloutputwastakenfromParejo
(1989).
44
Cf.Simpson(1992a,1994,1995)forobjectionstothispointofview,butcf.Federico(1986)forthewide
diffusionofthemarketeconomyinanothernineteenthcenturyMediterraneanagriculture,Italy.Domínguez
(1994)researchonnorthernSpainshowsthatpeasantshadregularaccesstothemarketbymid-nineteenth
century.
45
Itisnotclearthattherelationshipbetweentotaloutputandcommercialisedoutputwerestableovertime
anditseemsreasonabletopresumethatthegapwoulddeclineastheeconomydeveloped.
46
Thelevelofpercapitaconsumptionfor1865-1869wasarbitrarilyassumedtoremainstableover18501865.Thatis,D=c*N=(1-s)*Q+(X–M),
WhereD,isthedemandforwheat(legumes),cisitsconsumptionpercaput,Nisthetotalpopulation,Qis
output,sistheproportionofseedandanimalfeed,X,exports,andM,imports.Thus,totalwheat(legumes)
outputwillbeobtainedasQ=(c*N–(X-M))/(1-s)
Implicitinthiscalculationistheassumptionthatdisposablepercapitaincomeandagriculturalrelative
pricesdidnotexperiencesignificantalterationsoverthesefifteenyearsandrepresentsaparticularcaseofa
demandfunction.
47
Thatis,1891/93priceswereappliedtophysicaloutputofeachcropandtheresultingannualvaluesadded
upforthepreviouslydefinedgroupsofproductsandexpressedinindexnumberform,fromwhicha
quantityagriculturalindexwasobtainedbyweightingthemwiththeirsharesinthe1890benchmark.
48
Lessreliableestimatesforlivestocknumbersareavailablefor1859and1888.Cf.Mitchell(1992)fordata,
andGEHR(1978/1979,1991)foracritiqueofthesources.
44
1865,1891and1905/09andvaluedat1891prices.49Annualfiguresforlivestockoutput
werederivedthroughlog-linearinterpolation,bothfor1865-1891and1891-1905.The
caseforacceptingsuchacrudeprocedureistoreachawidercoverageforagricultural
productionbyincludinglivestockoutput,whichapparentlyhadanoppositetrendtothat
ofcropsoutputoverthelate19thcentury.50However,itisworthnoticingthatadeclinein
livestocknumbersdoesnotnecessarilymeanthatlivestockoutputfellasanincreased
turnoverofanimalstookplacestimulatedbytheriseinthedemandformeatanddairy
productsassociatedwithurbanization.51Fortheearlieryears1850-1864,outputwas
obtainedundertheassumptionthatpercaputconsumptionremainedconstantand
equivalenttothatof1865.52
Then,asecondstepwasestimatingtheaggregateindexasaweightedaverageof
outputindicesformajoragriculturalgroupswiththeirsharesinthebenchmark's
agriculturalfinaloutputasweights(Table7).Volumeindiceswerecomputedfordifferent
timespansvaluingquantitiesofeachproductatthefarm-gatepricesforeachbenchmark
(Table8).
49
Sinceithasbeenarguedthatlivestocknumbersareunderestimatedforthe1891-1916period,conversion
coefficientsfrom1929and1933livestockcensuseswereadopted(Simpson,1994;GEHR,1978/1979,1991).
Animalproducefor1865wasderivedfromlivestocknumbersbyapplyingtheturnoverofanimalsinGarcía
Sanz’s(1994).Itisnoticeablethatthepercentageoflivestockslaughteredchangedoverthelatenineteenth
century,inparticularforsheepandcattle(Cf.GarcíaSanz,1994;GEHR,1983;andSimpson,1994).Constant
averageweightsperanimalin1920,derivedinFloresdeLemus(1926)wereacceptedinSimpson(1994)and
GEHR(1978/1979)andmaintainedinmyestimatessincenoalternativeestimateswereavailable.
CoefficientsappliedarepresentedinAppendix2,TableA2.2.
50
Thecautiousestimatingprocedurewould,nevertheless,offsettheclaimedupwardbiasingrowthrates
stemmingfromapproximatingcropsoutputfromtradedcrops.Anadditionalreasontochoosesucharough
procedureisthatlivestockoutputcouldbearguablyseenaslessvolatilethancropsoutputand,byits
inclusionintheestimateofagriculturaloutput,excessvolatilitywouldhavebeenreduced.
51
Agrarianhistorianscoincideinpointingtoadeclineinlivestockoutputsimultaneoustoariseincrops
outputoverthelate19thcentury(GEHR,1978/79,1983,1989).Theliteraturedoesnotaddress,however,
theissueofovertimechangeinanimals’weight(mostauthorskeepusingweightsperunittakenfromthe
1920censusbyFloresdeLemus(1926))and,moresignificantly,theincreasedturnoverofanimals.García
Sanz(1994)showstheshareoflivestockslaughteredin1865anditsdifferenceswithsimilarestimatesfor
1900or1930(muchcloseramongthemselves)arestriking,inparticular,forcattle(theproportionin1865is,
atleast,1to3withrespectthoseof1904or1929),afeatureconsistentwiththeriseinurbanizationwithin
theperiodthatbroughtariseinbeefconsumption.Muttonconsumptionrose,inturn,(assheepbecame
increasinglylessorientedtowardswoolproduction)andgoats’meatexperiencedamarkeddecline.
52
Thesameprocedureusedforcropsoutputwasappliedhere.Alternatively,the1858livestockcensus
couldbeusedbutitsnoticeableunderestimationoflivestocknumberspreventedmefromdoingit.
45
Table7
AgriculturalFinalOutputatcurrentprices,1890-1964(%)
a
c.1890 1898/1902 1909/1913 1929/1933
1950 1960/1964 Cereals
27.8
34.4
31.3
25.4
25.6
16.2
Pulses
3.7
3.1
3.3
3.2
3.0
2.0
Vegetables
13.2
13.3
13.1
16.5
17.2
16.4
Rawmaterials
2.9
3.7
3.3
3.7
3.9
6.8
Fruitsandnuts
2.1
7.1
8.3
11.0
11.0
12.7
Winemust
18.5
11.2
6.8
6.3
6.4
4.1
Crudeoliveoil
7.9
5.8
6.0
5.9
2.6
4.9
Meat
12.4
11.1
13.9
15.5
11.1
14.7
Poultryandeggs
6.3
5.6
7.0
7.1
11.0
8.0
Non-animal
74.7
77.4
70.7
71.2
68.4
62.3
Animal
25.3
22.6
29.3
28.8
31.6
37.7
a
Note: 1960/64finaloutputcomputedat1960prices.
Sources:QuantitiesarederivedmostlyfromGEHR(1989,1991),completedwithComín(1985a),Simpson
(1986,1994)(unpublisheddataset),andCarreras(1983)forthepre-CivilWaryears;andBarciela(1989)and
MinisteriodeAgricultura(1974,1979a)forthe1940-1964period.PricesaretakenfromGEHR(1989),
Simpson(1994)(unpublisheddataset)andMinisteriodeAgricultura(1974,1979a).
Toconstructayearlypriceindex,singleseriesforasampleofgoodswithineach
agriculturalsubsectorweregatheredfromawiderangeofsources.53Individualprice
serieswereassembledforcereals(wheat,barley,rice),legumes(chickpeas),vegetables
(potatoes),fruitsandnuts(orangesandalmonds),must,unrefinedoliveoil,rawmaterials
(sugarbeet,wool),meat(beef,veal,pigandlamb),eggsandmilk.Laspeyrespriceindices
wereconstructed,then,foreachgroupofgoodswithbenchmarks'weights.Anaggregate
priceindexwas,inturn,obtainedastheaverageofsub-sectoralLaspeyrespriceindices
weightedbytheirannualquantityindices.54
53
SourcesusedforyearlyagriculturalpriceswereArenales(1976),Barciela(1983,1989),Carreras(1989),
Comín(1985a,1985c),Estadística(s)deComercioExterior(variousyears),GEHR(1981a,1981b,1989),
GómezMendozaandSimpson(1988),MartínRodríguez(1982),MinisteriodeAgricultura(1974,1979a),
MinisteriodeTrabajo(1942),AnuariosEstadísticosdeEspaña(variousyears),ParisEguilaz(1943),Piqueras
(1978),ReherandBallesteros(1993),Sánchez-Albornoz(1975,1979,1981),andSimpson(1994,unpublished
dataset).
54
Actually,sincequantityindicesareofLaspeyrestype,priceindicesshouldbeofPaaschetypetoderive
currentvalues(seeexpressions(I),(II)and(III)above).ItisworthnoticingthatahybridofLaspeyresand
Paaschepriceindices,whichstemsfromdefectivestatistics,isstillcommonintoday'snationalaccounts(Cf.
CorralesandTaguas,1991).
46
Table8
ConstructionofAgriculturalVolumeIndices,1850-1958
Periods
1850-1909
1890-1929
1913-1950
1929-1958
1950-1958
BenchmarkYear
1891/93
1909/13
1929/33
1950
1960
CoverageatBenchmark(%)
77.5
86.4
86.1
86.5
85.1
Sources:Appendix2,TableA2.3.
III.1.1.2Grossvalueadded
Nominalgrossvalueaddedwasobtainedbydeductingpurchasesoutsidethe
agriculturalsectorfromfinaloutputatcurrentprices.Realgrossvalueaddedwasderived,
inturn,bysubstractingindustrialandservicesinputsatconstantpricesfromrealfinal
output.Animplicitdeflatorwasderivedfromnominalandrealgrossvalueaddedseries.
Purchasesoutsidetheagriculturalsectorwereproxiedbytheconsumptionofmineral
fertilizersandthelevelofnon-agriculturalinputsfor1958wasbackcastedwiththeannual
rateofvariationofmineralfertilizersconsumedinagriculture.55
III.1.2Forestry
Evidenceforforestryisonlyavailablesince1901andquantitiesofwood,firewood,
resin,corkandespartograsswerevaluedat1912/13,1929/33and1960pricesandadded
upintosinglevaluesfromwhichachainquantityindexwasderived.56Outputatcurrent
pricesisavailablesince1901.57Grossvalueaddedatcurrentpriceswascomputed
55
Fortunately,thesmallshareofagriculturalfinaloutputrepresentedbypurchasesoutsideagriculture
keepsthesizeofthebiasintroducedbysuchcrudeproxieswithinreasonablelimits.Thesourceforthe1958
benchmarkwasMinisteriodeAgricultura(1979b:155).TheN+P2O5+K2Ocontentofmineralfertilizersin
Gallego(1986)andBarciela(1989)providesahomogeneousannualindicatorfortheyears1892-1958that
wasbackcastedwithfertilizerimportsto1850.Missingvaluesforthecontentofmineralfertilizersin19351939and1945-1950werelog-linearlyinterpolatedfromavailabledatafor1935,1945and1950.For19401944itwasassumedthesamevalueasfor1945.Formineralfertilizers,pricesweretakenfromPujol(1998),
Carreras(1989)andAnuario(s)Estadístico(s).Quantitiesandpricesforfertilizerimportswerederivedfrom
Estadística(s)delComercioExterior.
56
Theindexwasderivedfromsplicingfoursub-indices:1901-1913,valuesat1912/13prices;1913-1929,
geometricaverageofvaluesat1912/13and1929/33prices;1929-1940,valuesat1929/33prices;19401958,valuesat1960prices.Splicingthesub-serieswasdoneusingratiosforoverlappingyears.Sourcesused
wereGEHR(1989,1991),Barciela(1989)andMinisteriodeAgricultura(1979a,1979b).
57
ReseñaEstadística(1952)forthecurrentvalueoftotaloutput,1901-1950.Currentvaluesoftotalandfinal
outputareprovidedinMinisteriodeAgricultura(1979)for1950-1958
47
throughbackwardprojectionofthe1958levelinnationalaccounts(CNE-58)withthe
valueindex.58Animplicitdeflatorwasderivedfromthecurrentvalueandvolumeindices.
III.1.3Fishing
Forfishing,quantityandcurrentvalueseriesareavailablefrom1904onwardsbut
onlyscatteredinformationexistsfor1878,1883and1888-1892(andnodataatallfor
1935-39).59Thequantityoffreshfishcapturedisavailablebut,sincenoallowancescanbe
madeforcompositionchanges,thealternativeofdeflatingcurrentvalueoffishcaptures
waspreferredonthegroundsthat,withinagivenindustry,pricevarianceislowerthan
quantityvariance.Grossvalueaddedatcurrentpriceswasobtainedthroughbackward
extrapolationofthe1958level(CNE58)withtherateofvariationofthetotalvalueof
captures.60Whencurrentvaluesoftotalproductionweremissing(1850-1903),grossvalue
addedwasextrapolatedbackwardsonthebasisofoutput(computedunderthe
assumptionofconstantpercapitaconsumptiontimesthepopulationandadjustedfornet
exports)andapriceindexforcod.61Animplicitdeflatorwasderivedfromthecurrent
valueandvolumeindices.
III.1.4ValueAddedforAgriculture,Forestry,andFishing
Valueaddedatcurrentpricesforagriculture,forestryandfishingwasreachedby
addingupeachsubsector’sestimates.Aggregatevolumeindicesforagriculture,forestry
andfishingoutputwerederivedasanaverageofthesub-sectorindiceswiththeirsharein
itsaggregategrossvalueaddedfor1913,1929and1958asweights,respectively.62Then,
asinglequantityindexwascomputedasavariableweightedgeometricaverageofthe
58
Itwasarbitrarilyassumedthatvariationsinvalueaddedatcurrentpricescorrespondedtothoseintotal
outputinnominalterms.
59
SourcesusedareGiráldez(1991)for1883-1934,completedwithunpublisheddataobtainedbyGómez
Mendoza(1983)for1878,1888-92and1904-07;andBarciela(1989)for1940-1958.
60
Thevalueoftotalproductionisconsideredtoprovideanacceptableproxyforvalueadded.Cf.Hemberg
(1955)andGiráldez(1991),pp.520-521.
61
CodpricesinArenales(1976).
62
Grossvalueaddedfor1958comesfrom1958-basednationalaccounts,CNE58(I.E.F.(1969).Theshares
for1958were:agriculture,0.8963;forestry,0.0722;fishing,0.0315.Fortheperiod1850-1900whenforestry
dataismissing,agriculture'ssharewasincreasedcorrespondingly.FortheCivilWaryears(1936-39),when
nodataexistforforestryandfishingIassumedthesetwosectorsevolvedasagriculture.
48
threeindices.63Thecompositionoftheaggregateindexisasfollows,for1850-1913,1913
weightswereaccepted;for1913-1929,aweightedgeometricaverageof1913and1929
weightedindices;for1929-1958aweightedgeometricaverageof1929and1958
weightedindices.Animplicitdeflatorwasobtainedfromcurrentandconstantpricevalue
added.
III.2Industry
Newseriesofindustrialoutputanditsmaincomponents,innominalandrealterms,
areconstructedinthissection.ThepathbreakingresearchcarriedoutbyAlbertCarreras
suppliedthebasisfromwhichnewseriesforextractiveindustries,utilitiesand
manufacturingoutputwerebuiltup.64
Thedifficultiesfacedbyhistoricalattemptstoproducehardempiricalevidenceon
industrialperformancecanbeillustratedbyassessingCarreras'seminalcontribution.65His
indexofindustrialproductionusedafixedweightingsystemwithalternativebaseyears
(1913,1929,1958,and1975)thatwere,inturn,splicedintoasingleseriesusingendyears.Fortheperiodunderstudyhere,the1958input-outputtable(TIOE58)suppliedthe
unitvalueaddedusedasweightsthatwere,then,extrapolatedbackwardsto1929and
1913withindustrialprices,undertheassumptionthattheyapproximatedthetrendsin
unitvalueadded.66Unfortunately,theauthorwasunabletoestablishearlierbaseyears
forthenineteenthcenturyand,asnoregardwaspaidtochangesinrelativeprices,the
furtherbackintimewemovefrom1913,thelessrepresentativeofindustrialperformance
hisindexbecomes.Inadditiontotheuseoffixedweights,limitedcoverageisusuallya
63
Inthecompromisesingleindex,eachbenchmark'sindexgetsalargerweightthecloseritistoeach
particularyear(theformulausedis(12)).
64
Cf.Carreras(1983,1984,1990,1992).Mostoftheannualdataandtheweightingsystemusedforthis
sectionderivefromCarreras(1983).
65
AnalternativeestimatecanbefoundininPradosdelaEscosura(1988),chap.4,inwhichFisherindices
werecomputedfor1860,1890and1910benchmarksusing1856,1900and1920weights.
66
TheactualprocedurefollowedbyCarreras(1983,1984)toderiveunitvalueaddedfor1913and1929was
applyingtheratioofgrossvalueaddedatfactorcosttototalvaluefor1958toindustrialpricesin1913and
1929,assumingimplicitlythatsucharatiowasstableovertime.
49
majorliabilityforanyindustrialindex.Carreras'indexreachesanacceptablecoverage,65
percentin1958andapproximately50and70percentfor1929and1913.67
ThemainobjectiontoCarreras’indexisitsweightingscheme.Ateachbenchmark
(1913,1929,1958,and1975),annualphysicaloutputforeveryproductwasweightedby
itsunitvalueaddedtocomposeanaggregateseriesthatwas,then,splicedintoasingle
chainindexusingendyears.68Thefinalseriesapproximateswelloverallindustrial
performanceinsofarthesampleofgoodsfromwhichtheindustrialoutputindexisderived
remains‘representative’forthewholeindustry.Unfortunately,thecoverageofdifferent
sectorsisasymmetricalinCarreras'indexand,asonemovesbackwardsintime,itdeclines
andbecomesmoreuneven,increasingtheriskofundesiredover-representationof
particularproductssinceamerefractionofasubsectormayeventuallydominatethe
overallindex.69
Table9
CompositionofManufacturingValueAddedin1958
(1)
Carrerassimple(%)
18.1
17.1
0.4
1.9
4.2
1.5
12.7
35.3
5.4
3.4
(2)
CNE58(%)
17.0
21.2
7.1
4.4
10.2
4.4
6.2
17.3
7.6
4.6
Food,BeveragesandTobacco
TextileandClothing
Timber,CorkandFurniture
PaperandPrinting
Chemical
Stone,Clay,GlassandCement
Metal,basic
Metal,transformation
TransportEquipment
Other
Note:*[100*ln((1)/(2))]
Sources:Carreras(1983)andSpanishNationalAccountsBase1958(CNE58).
67
(3)
Deviation*(%)
6
-21
-288
-84
-89
-108
72
71
-34
-32
Industrialgrossvalueaddedusedtoobtainthesepercentagesderivefromcontemporaryestimatesby
Vandellòs(1925)for1913anddeMiguel(1935)for1927.ThecoverageofCarreras'industrialproduction
indexisstilllowerthantheonebyLewis(1978)fortheU.K.,whichcovered91percentofmanufacturing
andminingvalueaddedin1907.
68
InCarreras(1987,1990),thefinalindexresultsfromlinkingtheseriesfor1831-1913(builtusingthe1913
benchmark)withtheseriesfor1913-1935(1929benchmark),theseriesfor1935-1958(1958benchmark),
andtheseries1958-1981(1975benchmark).
69
Cf.Harley(1982)andFremdling(1988)foracritiqueofanalogousproblemsinBritishandGerman
th
industrialproductionindicesbuiltbyHoffmann(1955).Adebateonindustrialgrowthinearly19 century
SpainalongtheselinescanbefoundinPradosdelaEscosura(1988),chap.4and(1990),chap.3(addenda).
Cf.Rosés(2003)forare-assessment.
50
AnillustrationofthisargumentisprovidedbythecoverageofCarreras'indexatthe
1958benchmark.AglanceatTable9showstheextenttowhichitscoverageis
asymmetrical.Metalindustries(basicandtransformation),forinstance,areclearlyoverrepresentedconditioningtheaggregateindustrialindexwhenitiscomputeddirectly,asin
Carreras'case.Industrialgrowthmightsuffer,then,fromanupwardbiasasaresultof
over-weightingcapitalgoods,whosegrowthrateisusuallyhigherthantheindustry's
average.70Intheconstructionofquantityindicesformanufacturingindustryanattempt
willbemadetopreventsomeoftheshortcomingsinCarreras’industrialproductionindex.
III.2.1Manufacturing
Lackofinformationpreventedthecomputationoftotalproductionandinputs,at
currentandconstantprices,separately,fromwhichnominalandrealvalueaddedwould
bederived.Inturn,changesinrealvalueaddedarerepresentedbyvariationsinquantity
indicesconstructedfromproductionevidenceforeachmanufacturingsector,asitis
usuallydoneinhistoricalnationalaccountsandoccasionallyindevelopingcountries.71
Inordertoconstructanindexformanufacturingoutput,Laspeyresindicesforeach
branch(Qi,t)were,firstly,computedand,then,theaggregateindex(Q*t)wasobtainedas
theiraverage,usingeachbranch’sshareintotalmanufacturingvalueaddedatthe
benchmarkyearasweights(Pi,o).72Thatis,
Qi,t=Σqijtpijo/Σqijopijo(12)and,then,
Q*t=ΣQi,tPi,o/ΣQi,oPi,o(13)where,
Pi,o=Σqijopijo/Σqjopjo(14)
Hereqandprepresentquantitiesandprices;subscriptsoandtarethebenchmarkyear
andanyotheryear,respectively;j=1,...n,aregoods,andi=1,...s,aresectors;
70
However,asMorellá(1992)suggests,theGerschenkroneffect,thatis,thedownwardbiasinthegrowth
rateintroducedbyend-yearweigthing,mayoffsetit.
71
Cf.Holtfrerich(1983)andFenoaltea(2003,2005),forGermanandItalianhistoricalaccounts,andHeston
(1994:35,47),forpresent-daydevelopingcountries.Cf.Gandoy(1988)foracritiqueoftheuseof
productionindicesinsteadofrealvalueaddedderivedasaresidualofdoubledeflatedoutputandinputs
andDavid(1962)andFenoaltea(1976)forsupportofsingledeflation.
72
Asithasbeenshownabove,thesamemethodwasappliedtotheconstructionoftheagriculturalfinal
outputseries.
51
superscriptidenotesquantitiesandpricesofgoodsincludedinsectori.Goodsinsectori
arenotincludedinanyothersector.
Usingthisapproach,theproblemoflackofrepresentativenesswillbelessacute
thaninthecaseofCarrerasindex,sincetheassumptionsthata)totaloutputevolvesasits
maincomponents,andb)itscoverageremainsunchangedoveragivenperiod,aremore
easilyacceptableatbranchlevelthanfortheindustryasawhole.
Formanufacturing,elevenbrancheshavebeendistinguished(Table10).Basicseries
ofphysicalquantitiesweretakenfromCarreras(1983,1989),supplementedwith
productiondataonwine,alcohol,brandy,beer,meatslaughtering,andtimber.73Thus,
mostdataemployedintheconstructionofthemanufacturingoutputindexcorrespondto
intermediateandprimaryinputsthatwouldlead,inturn,tounderestimatingindustrial
growth,asefficiencygainsintheuseofinputsarenotallowedfor.Inordertooffsetthis
shortcomingIarbitrarilyassumedayearly0.5percentefficiencyincreaseintheuseof
inputsforengineeringindustryandincorporatedqualityadjustmentsinthetransport
equipmentindustry.74
IntheconstructionofaLaspeyresquantityindexformanufacturingproductiona
two-stageprocedurewasfollowed,
a)Quantityindicesforeachmanufacturingbranch.Unitvalueaddedforeachproductin
1958wasbackwardextrapolatedto1929,1913,1890and1870withitsownpriceindices
underthearbitraryassumptionthatthevalueadded/totalproductionratioremained
stableovertime.75Wheneverpossibledirectestimatesofunitvalueaddedwereapplied.76
AlsoadjustmentsbyMorelláonCarreras’unitvalueaddedestimatesfor1958were
73
Almarchaetal.(1975),Coll(1985,1986),Comín(1985a),togetherwiththereferenceprovidedinthe
sectiononagricultureabove,providecomplementarysources.
74
Lewis(1978)madethesameassumptionfortheU.K.Qualityindicesforshipbuildingandlocomotive
productionhavebeenappliedthetonsconstructed.Forshipbuilding,Feinstein(1988)qualityindexhasbeen
adjustedtotheSpanishcase.Thus,for1850-69,noadjustmenthasbeenmade;a0.35percentannual
increasewasappliedto1870-85thatroseto0.7percentfor1885-1900andto0.83percentover1901-36
whilenoincreasewasassumedfor1937-49.Finally,a1percentqualityimprovementwasacceptedfor
1950-58.FortheproductionoflocomotivesaqualityadjustmenthasbeenderivedfromCorderoand
Menéndez(1978)evidenceontheincreaseinpowerpertypeoflocomotive(includingelectricanddiesel
engines).
75
ThisistheprocedurefollowedbyCarreras(1983)for1913and1929.
76
Historicalestimatesforunitvalueaddedinmining,cementandmetalandengineeringindustriesderived
fromColl(1985,1986),Escudero(1989)andGómezMendoza(1984,1985a,1985b)wereemployed.
52
accepted.77Then,foreachbranchofmanufacturing,Laspeyresquantityindiceswere
constructedwitheachbenchmark’sunitvalueaddedestimatesasweights.78
b)Quantityindexforaggregatemanufacturing.ALaspeyresquantityindexfortotal
manufacturingwasobtainedbyaddingupallbranchindiceswiththeirbenchmarkshares
in1913,1929,and1958currentvalueaddedasweights(Table10)thatwereobtainedby
extrapolationof1958levels(CNE58)witheachbranch’sLaspeyresquantityandPaasche
priceindices.Theresultingthreeindiceswere,then,splicedusingavariableweighted
geometricmean,inwhichtheclosertoagivenyeart,thelargertheweightallocatedtoa
particularbenchmark(asshownin(V)).79
Table10
BreakdownofManufacturingValueAdded,1913-1958(%)
(1)
1913
38.4
18.8
10.1
7.6
2.2
2.5
0.7
6.0
6.3
5.0
2.4
Food,BeveragesandTobacco
Textile
ClothingandShoemaking
Timber,CorkandFurniture
PaperandPrinting
Chemical
Stone,Clay,GlassandCement
Metal,basic
Metal,transformation
TransportEquipment
Other
(2)
1929
29.6
14.4
7.0
11.3
1.7
4.3
4.4
6.6
12.7
6.6
1.4
(3)
1958
17.0
14.5
6.7
7.1
4.4
10.2
4.4
6.2
17.3
7.6
4.6
Sources:CNE58for1958;for1913and1929,seetext.
77
Cf.Morellá(1992).
Thus,eachbranchorsectoralindexwasbuiltusing1870benchmark'sunitvalueaddedfor1850-1870;
indiceswith1870and1890unitvalueaddedweightsfor1870-1890;and1890and1913unitvalueadded
weightsfor1890-1913.Then,ageometricmeanwascalculatedforeachsub-periodandasinglesectoral
indexwasreachedfor1850-1913splicingthethreesegments1850-70,1870-90and1890-1913onthebasis
ofoverlappingyears.Forthepost-1913period,branchindiceswerederivedwith1913and1929unitvalue
addedfor1913-1929;andwith1929and1958unitvalueaddedweightsfor1929-1958.Ididnotfollowthe
commonpracticeinhistoricalindustrialaccountsofsmoothingtheresultingserieswithsomesortofmoving
averageinordertoallowforstocks(Cf.Batistaetal.,1997;MaluquerdeMotes,1994)sinceIdidnothave
anyknowledgeaboutthesizeandevolutionofindustrialstocks.
79
Thus,1913weightedindiceswereusedfor1850-1913andvariablegeometricalaveragesof1913and
1929basedindices,fortheyears1913-1929,andof1929and1958basedindices,for1929-1958.
78
53
Paaschepriceindicesforeachbranchofmanufacturingindustrywereconstructed
bydividing,foragivensampleofgoods,itscurrentvalue(expressedinindexform)bya
Laspeyresquantityindex.80Currentvaluesforthesampleofgoodswereobtainedby
multiplyingquantitiesbypricesthatwere,then,addedup.Animportantcaveatisthat
manufacturingpriceindiceswereconstructedonveryscantpricedata,stronglyskewed
towardsrawmaterialsandintermediategoodsthat,inturn,wouldtendtobiasupwards
currentmanufacturingvalueadded.81Later,animplicitPaaschedeflatorwasobtainedfor
aggregatemanufacturingbydividingtotalcurrentvalueadded(inindexform)bythe
Laspeyresquantityindex.
III.2.2ExtractiveIndustries
Asregardsextractiveindustries,miningandquarryingwereconsidered,withthe
latterusuallyrepresentinglessthan10percentofsectoralvalueadded.Theconstruction
procedureofquantityandpriceindicesandofnominalandrealvalueaddedlevelswas
identicaltothecaseofmanufacturing.82
III.2.3Utilities
Onlygasandelectricityoutputserieswereavailableonyearlybasisandan
aggregatechainindexwasobtainedbyweightinggasandelectricityoutputwiththeir
80
Thisimpliesthatgoodswhosepriceswerenotavailablewereassumedtohavethesamepricebehaviour
asthosewithinthesample.Formanufacturing,priceindicesfordifferentsubsectors(food,textile,
shoemaking,metal,chemical,cement,timber,paper)wereconstructedfromawidevarietyofsources.
Thus,forfoodindustry,itspriceindexwasbasedonpriceseriesforwine,brandy,beer,oliveoil,flour,rice,
sugar,coffee,cocoaandtobacco.Pricesforyarnandsemi-manufacturesofcotton,silk,wool,hempandjute
were,inturn,thebasicingredientsofthetextilepriceindex.Again,formetalindustries,bothbasicand
transforming,ironingots,steelandcastiron,tin,lead,copper,blister,zinc,tin,silver,andmercury,thatis,
inputsprices,werethealmostexclusiveingredientsoftheirpriceindices.Pricesforshoes,corks,common
andPortlandcement,paper,weretheavailableinformationforshoemaking,cork,cement,paperand
printingindustries.Forthechemicalindustries,awidercoveragewasachieved.Inanycase,pricecoverage
wasunevenandthesourcesquiteheterogeneous.Themainsourcesforindustrialpricesused,including
mining,utilitiesandconstruction,wereArenales(1976),Barciela(1989),Carreras(1989),Coll(1985,1986),
MartínRodríguez(1982),MinisteriodeTrabajo(1942),ParisEguilaz(1943),andPradosdelaEscosura
(1981).
81
Thisissobecauseasefficiencyincreases,intermediateconsumptionisreducedrendering,hence,alower
increase(orasharperdecline)forthevalueaddeddeflatorthanforinputspricesorforthedeflatoroftotal
production.
82
Nodatawereavailableforquarryingbefore1920andextractiveindustries’outputwasbackcastedtill
1850withminingoutput.ThesourcesforquantitiesandpriceswereCarreras(1983,1989),Coll(1985)and
Escudero(1998).Coal,ironore,leadore,pyritesarethemaincomponentsofthepriceindexformining(see
note98).
54
contributionstosectoralvalueaddedfor1913,1929and1958,inwhichgaswasallocated
alargersharetoincludewatersupply.83Nominalgrossvalueaddedwasreachedthrough
backwardsextrapolationof1958levelswithLaspeyresquantityandPaaschepriceindices.
Quantityindicesweresplicedintoasingleindexfollowingthesameprocedureusedfor
manufacturingandextractiveindustries.Inturn,thesameconstructionmethodofprice
indicesappliedtomanufacturingandextractiveindustrieswasadopted.
III.2.4ValueAddedforManufacturing,ExtractiveIndustries,andUtilities
Finally,anaggregatequantityindexforindustry(excludingconstruction)was
derivedasanaverageofmanufacturing,extractiveindustries,andutilitiesindicesusing
their1913,1929and1958sectoralsharesinindustrialgrossvalueaddedasweights.Then,
toobtainasingleLaspeyreschainindexofindustrialgrossvalueadded,thethreeindices
weresplicedthroughavariableweightedgeometricmeaninwhichweightingvaried
accordingtothedistancefromtheconsideredyear(asin(12)).Currentpriceestimates
wereobtainedbyaddingupeachindustry’svalueadded.Animplicitdeflatorwasderived
fromcurrentandconstantpriceestimates.
III.3Construction
Fivesubsectorsweredistinguishedintheconstructionindustry,residentialand
commercial,railway,roadbuilding,hydraulicinfrastructureandotherpublicworks.
III.3.1ResidentialandCommercialConstruction
Istartedfromtheavailableinformationonthestockofurbanandruraldwellings
andderivedthenumberbuiltineachinter-censalperiodbyaddingaroughestimateof
thenumberofhousesdemolishedintheperiodtothenetincreaseinthestock.84Alsosize
83
Forwatersupplynonationalaggregatefigureswerefoundandonlyscattereddataareavailableforafew
capitalcities(Madrid(RuedaLaffond,1994),Barcelona,Bilbao(Antolín,1991),Pamplona(Garrués,1998)).
Forutilities,gasandelectricitypriceswereavailable(seenote98).
Dataforgrossvalueaddedcomesfrom1958nationalaccounts(CNE58)distributedbybrancheswiththe
1958input-outputtable(IOT58).Inallocatingahigherweighttogas,tocompensateforthelackofdataon
watersupply,IfollowedasuggestionbyFenoaltea(1982),p.627.
84
Nodistinctioncanbemadebetweenresidentialandcommercialuseofdwellings.However,Tafunell
(1989b)pointsoutthatin1890'sBarcelonanon-residentialdwellingsdidnotreach5percentoftotal
dwellings,withthegroundfloorofresidentialbuildingsbeingcommonlyallocatedtoindustrialandservices'
activities.ThesourcesareNomenclatorsandCensosdeviviendas.Residentialconstructionindicesare
availableforseveralcities,includingMadridandBarcelonaforthelatenineteenthandearlytwentieth
55
andqualitychangesinhousingweretakenintoconsiderationandoverallimprovements
werearbitrarilyassumedtotakeplaceat0.5percentannually.85Demolitionrateswere
obtainedthroughalternativemethodsthatcastverycloseresults.Oneprocedure,
adoptedfromtheBritishcase,wastoderivedecadalratesfordemolitionbyassumingthat
85percentofthenewhomesbuiltacenturyearlierwouldbedemolishedwhilethe
surviving15percentwoulddisappearsteadilyoverthenextcentury(Feinstein,1988:
388).AnalternativewasthedemolitionratescomputedforSpainbyBonhomeand
BustinzathatIacceptedupto1940.86Fortheyears1940-1958Iderivedthemfrom
existingsources(NomenclatorsandCensusesofdwellings).87Theresultingdemolition
annualrateswere,1861-1910,0.21;1911-40,0.28;1940s,0.36;and1950s,0.26.
Tosumup,thechangeinthequality-adjustedstockofdwellingsincludesthenet
increaseinstockplusthereplacementofdemolisheddwellings-thatis,theincreasein
grossstock-towhichayearly0.5percentqualityimprovementwasapplied.Inorderto
distributetheinter-censalincreaseinthegrossstockannually,availablefiguresforthe
consumptionofcementandtimberwereusedfor1850-1944,whiletheannualnumberof
newdwellings(mostlysubsidizedconstruction)wastakenfor1944-1958.88Toobtain
yearlyoutputfiguresrepairmentsandmaintenanceexpenseswereaddedtothequalityadjustedincreaseingrossstock.Repairmentsandmaintenancewereassumedto
represent1percentofthecurrentstock(whichwasobtainedthroughlog-linear
interpolationbetweenpairsofadjacentcensalbenchmarks).Finally,urbanandrural
constructionindiceswerecombinedintoasingleindexusingtheirrespectivesharesinthe
century,i.e.,Tafunell(1989b);GómezMendoza(1986).Dataonthestockofurbandwellingsisavailablein
Tafunell(1989a).
85
TheassumedannualincreaseinsizeandqualityissimilartotheoneestimatedbyCairncross(1953)for
theU.K.,andwasalsoacceptedbyLewis(1978).
86
Cf.BonhomeandBustinza(1968).Theextenttowhichtheresultsfromeachestimatearesimilaris
providedbythepercentageofhousesbuiltin1850thatstillsurvivedacenturylater(undertheassumption
thatthedemolishedhousesarealwaystheoldest):
19501960
BonhomeandBustinzamethod64.560.1
Feinsteinmethod64.659.4
87
Before1860,thestockofdwellingswasbackcastedwiththerateofpopulationgrowthandademolition
yearlyrateof0.2percentwasassumed.
88
InputconsumptionwasderivedfromCarreras(1983).Atwo-yearmovingaveragewascomputedtoallow
forstocks.Consumptionoftimberandcementwascombinedintoasingleindexwith1958input-output
(TIOE58)weights.EvidenceonnewdwellingscomesfromAnuario(s)Estadístico(s).
56
totalvalueofdwellings.89Aspecificdeflatorwas,inturn,builtupthatcombined
constructionmaterialscostsandmasonwageswith1958input-outputweights(TIOE58).90
Annualcurrentvalueaddedfortheresidentialandcommercialconstructionindustrywas
obtainedbyprojectingthelevelofgrossvalueaddedfor1958backwardswiththe
quantityandpriceindices.91
III.3.2Non-residentialConstruction
III.3.2.1Railways
Expenditureoninvestmentandmaintenanceinrailwaysat1990pricescomputedby
Cucarella(1999)isthebasisofmyestimates.Hereliedondecadalaveragesofnominal
expenditureoninvestmentandmaintenanceinrailwaysestimatedbyGómezMendoza
(1991),thatweredistributedannuallyover1850-1920usingthenumberofkilometers
underconstruction,forinvestment,andthoseunderexploitation,formaintenance,and
thathecompletedforthelate1920’sandearly1930’swithhisownestimates(Cucarella,
1999:84-85).Inaddition,Government’sandSpanishnationalrailwayscompany’s(RENFE)
investmentandmaintenanceexpendituresinrailwaysestimatesbyMuñozRubio(1995)
wereemployedfrom1940onwards.Cucarella(1999:78-80)deflatedhiscurrentvalue
estimateswithawholesalepriceindex.IconvertedCucarella’sconstantpriceestimates
intonominalvaluesusinghisowndeflatorand,deflatedtheseriesagainwithaspecific
railwayconstructionpriceindexthatcombinesthecostsofrailwaymaterialsandmason
wageswith1958input-outputweights(TIOE58).92
89
Thevalueofurbanandruraldwellings(thecostoftheaveragerural(urban)dwellingtimesitsnumber)
overthefollowingperiods,priorto1860,1861-1911,1911-1940,and1961-1960,wascomputedfromdata
inBonhomeandBustinza(1969)fordwellingsbuiltintheseperiodsandstillexistingin1965.Theresulting
sharesforurbandwellingswere0.3448(1850-1860),0.5289(1861-1910),0.8623(1911-1940),and0.8663
(1941-1960).
90
Theresidentialconstructiondeflatorincludedconstructionmaterialsrepresenting49percent(0.32,
timber;0.30,cement;0.38,ironandsteel)andmasonwages,51percent.
91
The1958InputOutputTable(TIOE58)providedthesharesforresidentialandcommercial(0.7756)that
wasusedtoderiveeachsectorvalueaddedfromofficialnationalaccounts(CNE58).
92
For1936-1939onlytheexpenditureperkilometeroflinebythemajorrailwaycompanies,NorteandMZA,
onthenationalistsidewasavailable(nodataareavailableontherepublicansideduringtheSpanishCivil
War).LackinglinelengthandexpenditureperkilometreoflineonthewholeofSpain,noattemptwasmade
tocomputetotalexpenditureandIacceptedexpenditureperlinekilometreintheFrancoistsideasaproxy
forchangesinrailwayconstructionduringthewaryears,1936-1939.Thedeflatorforrailwaysconstruction
wasobtainedbyallocating65.6percenttomaterialscosts(0.13,timber;0.23,cement;0.64,rails)and34.4
percenttomasonwages.
57
III.3.2.2Roads
Investment,repairs,andmaintenanceexpendituresonroadsatcurrentpricesare
availablesince1897(Uriol,1992).Nominalroadexpenditurewasbackcastedto1850with
therateofvariationofpublicexpenditureonroads(Comín,1985b).Theresultingyearly
figuresfor1850-1935wereadjustedtomatchthedecennialestimatesbyGómez
Mendoza(1991).Finally,currentexpenditureestimatesweredeflatedwithaspecificprice
indexcomputedbycombiningmaterialscostsandmasonwageswith1958input-output
weights(TIOE58).93
III.3.2.3HydraulicInfrastructureandOtherPublicWorks
Investment,maintenance,andrepairsexpendituresonhydraulicinfrastructureand
maritimeandharbourexpenditurebythecentralGovernmentweredeflatedwitha
specificpriceindexincludingconstructionmaterialsandwages.94
Indicesofnon-residentialconstructionwerebuiltupcombiningrailway,androad
construction,hydraulicinfrastructureandotherpublicworkswiththeir1913,1929,and
1958sharesinthesector'svalueadded.95Acompromise,singlequantityindexforthe
wholeperiod1850-1958wasbuiltupasavariableweightedgeometricaverageofeach
pairofadjacentbenchmark'sindices(asinthecaseofmanufacturing).
ItisworthmentioningthatAlfonsoHerranz-Loncán(2004)estimatedoutputin
infrastructurefor1860-1935atamoredisaggregatedlevelthantheonepresentedhere.
Hisresultsarecoincidentalwithminebutshowhighervolatility,duetothefactthatonly
investmentisconsideredwhilemaintenanceisneglected(Figure18).ForthisreasonI
havenotincorporatedHerranz-Loncánestimateshere.
93
Intheroadconstructiondeflatorconstructionmaterialsrepresented55percent(0.69,cement;0.31,iron)
andmasonwages,45percent.
94
DataonGovernmentexpenditureonhydraulicinfrastructureareprovidedinFundaciónBBV(1992)and
publicexpenditureonmaritimeworksandharboursinComín(1985b).Thedeflatorusedwasconstructed
frompricesforpublicworksmaterialsandwages,weightedaccordingto1958input-ouputtable(TIOE58).
Thus,57.4percentwasallocatedtopublicworksmaterials(0.08,timber;0.24,iron;0.68,cement)and42.6
percent,tomasonwages.
95
The1958input-outputtable(TIOE58)offersthesharesofeachnon-resindentialconstructionbranchinits
totalvalueaddedprovidedby1958nationalaccounts(CNE58).Thesharesfor1913and1929werederived
fromthecurrentvalueestimatesdescribedinthetext.For1936-1939,giventhedearthofdatadata,an
indexwasbuiltuponthebasisofrailwaysconstructionandsplicedwiththemainindexusing1935asthe
linkyear.Alsoanindexincluding1940wasconstructedonreducedinformationasmaritimeandharbour
expenditurewasmissingandsplicedwiththemainindexwith1941asthelinkyear.
58
Figure18.Non-residentialConstructionVolumeIndices,1850-1935:AlternativeEstimates(1913=100)
Sources:PradosdelaEscosura,seethetext;Herranz-Loncán(2004).
Currentvalueseriesforeachbranchofnon-residentialconstructionwasobtainedby
linkingthelevelofgrossvalueaddedfor1958toitsLaspeyresquantityandpriceindices
and,then,addeduptorepresenttotalvalueaddedinnon-residentialconstruction.An
implicitdeflatorwascomputed.
III.3.3ValueAddedinResidentialandNon-residentialConstruction
Residentialandnon-residentialconstructionoutputwas,then,combinedintoa
singleindexfortheconstructionindustrywiththeir1913,1929and1958sharesinthe
sector'svalueadded,fromwhichasplicedvolumeindexwasderivedusingavariable
weightedgeometricaverage.
Nominalgrossvalueaddedfortheentireconstructionindustrywasobtainedby
addingupresidentialandnon-residentialconstructionvalueaddedatcurrentprices.An
59
implicit(semi-Paasche)deflatorwasderivedfromcurrentvalue(inindexform)andthe
aggregatevolumeindex.96
III.4Services
Estimatingvalueaddedinservicesrepresentsthemainobstacleintheconstruction
ofhistoricalnationalaccounts,especiallyinthecaseofthoseservicesforwhichnomarket
pricesexist,andalsoanunsurmountableproblemininternationalcomparisons.97Inthe
presentestimatetheuseofemploymentdatahasbeenavoidedandoutputindicators
usedinstead.98Whentheoutputofservicesisderivedusinglabourinputdata,
productivitycannotbeestimatedsincebyconstructionitisimplicitlyassumedthatoutput
perworkerremainsstagnant.Majorsubsectorsconsideredherearetransportand
communications,trade(wholesaleandretail),bankingandinsurance,ownershipof
dwellings,publicadministration,educationandhealth,andotherservices-including
restaurants,hotelsandleisure,householdservices,andliberalprofessions.Severalsteps
weretakentoproduceannualquantityandpriceindicesforthedifferentbranchesofthe
servicesector.
III.4.1TransportandCommunications
Transportationandcommunicationservicesincludewater(coastaland
international),road,urban,airandrailtransportpluspostal,telegraphandtelephone
services.
Fortransportationbyrail,merchandiseandpassengeroutputseriesareavailablefor
theperiod1868-1958andwerebackcastedto1859withthevolumeofmerchandiseand
passengerstransported.99Asplicedindexoftotalrailtransportoutputwasobtainedwith
ratesperpassenger-andton-kilometrefor1913,1929and1958asweightsover185996
The1958InputOutputTable(TIOE58)providedthesharesforresidentialandcommercial(0.7756)and
non-residentialconstruction(0.2244)thatwereusedtoderiveeachsectorvalueaddedfromofficialnational
accounts(CNE58).
97
SeeMaddison(1983)andKrantz(1994).Cf.Melvin(1995)fortheevolutionoftheconceptofservices.
98
Theexceptionishouseholdservices.
99
Actually,whilemerchandiseoutput,measuredinmetrictons-kilometer,isavailablesince1868,passenger
output,measuredinpassenger-kilometer,isonlyavailableforthetwomainrailwaycompanies,Norteand
MZA,before1913.IlinkedMZAandNorte’spassengeroutputovertheyears1867-1913tototalpassenger
outputfor1913-1958.ThesourcesareGómezMendoza(1989)andMuñozRubio(1995).FortheCivilWar
(1936-39),theoutputserieswereinterpolatedwithevidenceonmerchandiseandpassengertransportedby
NorteandMZAonthenationalistside,cf.MuñozRubio(1995),pp.282and287.
60
1964,thatwasextrapolatedbackto1850withtherateofvariationofrailwaytracks.Thus,
1913weightswereappliedfortheperiod1868-1913,whilevariableweightedgeometric
averagesof1913and1929(1929and1958)weightedindiceswereacceptedfor19131929(1929-1958).Prices,thatis,averageoutputperpassenger-kilometerandtonkilometer(inpesetas),weretakenfromGómezMendoza(1989)andMuñozRubio(1995).
Valueaddedatcurrentpricesinrailtransportwasobtainedbylinkingthe1958level
(CNE58)toquantityandpriceindices(averagepricesperpassenger-andton-kilometer).
Formaritimetransport,coastalandinternationaltransportserviceswere
distinguished.Forcoastaltransport,merchandiseoutput(expressedintons-kilometre),
availablesince1950,wasprojectedbackwardsto1857withtonsofmerchandise
transported,whileonlythenumberofpassengerstransportedwasavailablefrom1928
onwards.Anunweightedaverageofthequantityindicesofpassengerandmerchandise
coastaltransportwascomputedfor1928-1958thatwas,then,splicedwiththe
merchandiseindexinordertocovertheperiod1857-1958.100Internationaltransport
servicesfor1942-1958weremeasuredbythetotalvalueofpassengerandmerchandise
freightsreceivedbySpanishshipsand,then,deflatedbytheirrespectivefreightindices.101
For1850-1942,merchandisetransportwascomputedbyapplyingafreightfactortothe
totalvalueofexportsandimportscarriedunderSpanishflagthatwas,then,deflatedbya
freightindex.102Anindexforinternationalseatransportwascomputedusing1958
passengerandmerchandisefreightratesasweightsfor1942-1958and,then,projected
backwardswiththemerchandiseindexto1850.Finally,valueaddedformaritimetransport
100
Thesourceformerchandiseoutputsince1950isInstitutodeEstudiosdeTransportesyComunicaciones
(1984).MerchandiseandpassengertransportedareprovidedinFrax(1981)andGómezMendoza(1989)for
1850-1950.
101
DatafromEstadísticadefletesyseguros(1942-1956)andMinisteriodeHacienda,DirecciónGeneralde
Aduanas(1957-1958)kindlysuppliedbyElenaMartínezRuíz.
102
Thefreightfactorseriesused-thatis,theratiooffreightcoststototaltradedvalue-andthetotalvalueof
SpanishinternationaltradederivefromsectionIV.Thefreightindicescorrespondtoironore,forexports,
andaweightedaverageofwheatandcoalfreights,forimports.ThesourcesforfreightsareCollandSudrià
(1987),Isserlis(1938),North(1965),andPradosdelaEscosura(1984).Theshareoftonnagetrasported
underSpanishflagderivesfromValdaliso(1991)for1850-1935andfromAnuario(s)Estadístico(s),
thereafter.
61
atcurrentandconstantpriceswasderivedprojectingvalueaddedfor1958(CNE58)
backwardswithfreightandquantityindicesforcoastalandinternationaltransport.103
Forroadtransport,merchandiseandpassengeroutputareavailablesince1950and
werebackwardprojectedto1940withthenumberoftonsandpassengertransported.104
Aroadtransportoutputindexwascomputedasanaverageofmerchandiseandpassenger
outputfor1940-1958andbackwardprojectedto1850withtheroadlengththat,toallow
foritsuse,wasweightedbythestockofmotorvehiclesover1900-1940.105Valueaddedat
currentpricesinroadtransportwasobtainedbylinkingthe1958level(CNE58)tothe
outputindexandapriceindexforgasoline.106
Urbantransportwasaproximatedbythenumberofpassengerstransportedby
tramways,trolleybuses,buses,andmetrofrom1901onwards(GómezMendoza1989).
Valueaddedatcurrentpriceswasreachedthroughbackwardprojectionofthe1958level
(CNE58)withtheratesofvariationofthesector’srevenues.107
Forairtransport,passengeroutputisavailablesince1929andmerchandiseoutput
from1950onwards,thatwasprojectedbackwardsto1930withtherateofvariationof
totalmerchandisetransported;bothserieswerecombinedintoasinglequantityindex
usingwithequalweights.108Valueaddedwascomputedannuallybybackcastingthelevel
for1958withtheoutputindexandapriceindexforgasoline.109
Finally,road,urban,water,airandrailindicesweightedbytheircontributionsto
transportgrossvalueaddedin1913,1929and1958(CNE58)providedanaggregateindex
103
Coastalfreightspertonwerecomputedfor1932-1958fromValdaliso(1997).For1857-1932,itwas
assumedthatcoastalfreightsevolvedasfreightsininternationaltrade(onfreightsseesectionIV).Sharesof
coastal(0.6)andinternationaltransportation(0.4)in1958valueaddedwerederivedusingfreightratesand
tonsandpassengertrasported.
104
Roadoutput(bothpassengerandmerchandise)isprovidedinMuñozRubio(1995)from1950onwards.
Tonsandpassengertransportedfor1940-1950derivefromAnuario(s)Estadístico(s).
105
ThestockofmotorvehiclesisprovidedinLópezCarrillo(1998).Fortheroadlength,thesourcesare
GómezMendoza(1982,1989)andLópezCarrillo(1998).
106
Thepriceofgasolineisavailablesince1913inAnuario(s)Estadístico(s)andwasbackwardprojectedto
1901withthepriceofpetroleuminCarreras(1989).Forthelatenineteenthcenturyitwasassumedthat
roadtransportpricesfluctuatealongrailtransportprices.
107
Actually,CNE58onlyprovidesvalueaddedfor“othertransport”thatwasdistributedbetweenurbanand
airtransportusingthe1958input-outputtable(TIOE58).
108
ThesourcesareGómezMendoza(1989)andAnuario(s)Estadístico(s).
109
Thispriceindexisthesameusedinthecaseofroadtransportation.
62
fortransportservices.110Asplicedquantityindexwasconstructedfor1850-1958asa
variableweightedgeometricaverageofeachpairofadjacentbenchmark'sindices.
Annualvalueaddedintransportservices(atcurrentprices)wasreachedbyadding
uprail,water,road,airandurbantransportvalueaddedderivedthroughlinking1958
valueaddedlevels(CNE58)totheirquantityandpriceindices.Animplicitdeflatorresulted
ofdividingcurrentvalueadded(inindexform)bytheaggregatevolumeindex.
Forcommunicationservices,postal(numberoflettersandparcelssent),telegraph
(numberoftelegrams)andtelephone(callsfrom1924onwards,backcastedwithlinesin
serviceto1897)indicesweremergedintoanaggregateindexusingtheir1913,1929and
1958revenuesasweightsthatwere,then,splicedintoasingleindexusingvariable
weightedgeometricaverage.111Currentvalueofcommunicationsserviceswerederived
bylinkingthe1958valueaddedlevel(CNE58)toeachsubsector’syearlyrevenues.112An
implicitdeflatorresultedfromcurrentvalueadded(inindexform)andthequantityindex.
III.4.2WholesaleandRetailTrade
Duetodearthofdataondistribution,itwasassumedthattradeoutputwasalinear
functionofphysicaloutput,andaquantityindexwasderivedbycombining,with1958
weights,agricultural(includingfishing),miningandmanufacturingoutputplusimportsof
goods,fromwhichatwo-yearmovingaveragewascomputedtoallowforinventories.113
110
Weightswere0.44forroadtransport;0.1148,urban;0.16,water;0.0266,air;and0.2586,rail,derived
fromCNE58andTIOE58.Foryearsinwhichinformationwasincomplete,indiceswerebuiltonpartial
evidenceandsplicedwiththemainindex.Thatwasthecasefor1936-1939,whenonlyair,roadandsea
transportindiceswereavailable,andfor1850-1856whenjustrailandseatransportindicesexisted.
111
Onlyfiguresformailservicesgobackto1850;telegraphservicesarerecordedfor1855and,then,
annuallyfrom1860,andtelephoneservicesfrom1886(numberoftelephones,butcallsonlyfrom1924).
ThesourcesareCalvo(1998),GómezMendoza(1989)andMitchell(1992).1958weightswere0.6198,
telephone;0.2955,post;0.0847,telegraph.Thesplicedindexwasconstructedasinthecaseof
trasportation.
112
Revenuesfortelegraphservicesareonlyavailablefrom1896(GómezMendoza,1989)onwardsandfor
telephoneservicessince1925(kindlyprovidedbyNelsonAlvarez).
113
Thisshort-cuthasbeenusedbeforebyLewis(1978),vanderEng(1992),CortésConde(1994,1997),
Batistaetal.(1997),Smitsetal.(2000)inhistoricalestimatesforBritain,Indonesia,Argentina,Portugaland
theNetherlands,respectively.SimilarmethodswereappliedtoDenmark,SwedenandGermany(cf.Krantz,
1994).IntheSpanishcase,thisprocedurewasacceptedinbothcontemporaryandhistoricalestimates
(Vandellòs,1925;Schwartz,1977).1958sharesingrossvalueadded(CNE58),exceptforimportswheretotal
valuewasaccepted(seenextsection),weretheweightsusedforcomputingthetradingquantityindex.The
sharesusedwere:agriculture,0.3953;manufacturing,0.4575;mining,0.0339;imports,0.1133.Krantz
(1994:26)assertionthat"someformofassociationexistsbetweencommodityproductionandtradebuta
63
Valueaddedatcurrentpriceswasobtainedbylinkingthe1958leveltothequantityindex
andapriceindex(computedonthebasisofthesametradecomponentsand1958
shares).
III.4.3BankingandInsurance
Valueaddedatcurrentpriceswascomputedbysplicing1958valueaddedfor
bankingandinsuranceservices(CNE58)withthejointindexofbankingdepositsand
insurancepremia.Depositsincommercialandsavingsbanksandthevalueofinsurance
premia,expressedinindexform(with1958=1)wereweightedaccordingtotheirsharesin
the1958input-outputtable’ssectoralvalueadded(TIOE58)toderiveanaggregate
nominalindex.Valueaddedatcurrentpriceswasdeflatedwithawholesaleprice
index.114
III.4.4OwnershipofDwellings
Itwasassumedtoevolveasthequality-adjustedstockofdwellings.115Valueadded
atcurrentpriceswasderivedsplicingthe1958level(CNE58)tothequantityindexanda
rentofdwellingsdeflator.116
III.4.5PublicAdministration
Servicesoutputforpublicadministrationwasmeasuredbywagesandsalariespaid
bythecentralgovernment,whichweredeflatedbyacostoflivingindex.117Valueadded
prioriatotalcorrelationcannotbeexpected"ledmetopreferatwo-yearmovingaveragealternativeofthe
form,Yt=0.5Xt-1+0.5Xt,whereYrepresentsdistribution,andXthecombinationofphysicaloutputplus
importsinyeart.
114
1958input-outputtableshares(TIOE58)were0.7946forbankingand0.2054forinsuranceservices.Data
forinsurancepremiaareonlyavailablefrom1909onwards,andevidenceonbankingdepositswere
acceptedasagoodproxyforbankingandfinancialservicesbeforehand.Wheninformationwasincomplete,
asitwasthecaseduringtheCivilWar,indiceswerebuiltonpartialevidenceandsplicedwiththemain
index.ThesourcesforbankingdepositsareTortella(1974,1985),for1856-1899,andMartínAceña(1985,
1988),from1900onwards.InsurancedataderivesfromFraxandMatilla(1996)for1909-1937and
Anuario(s)Estadístico(s),thereafter.
115
Estimatesatcensusdateswerelog-linearlyinterpolatedtoderiveannualfigures(seesectionon
constructionindustryabove).
116
TheaveragepriceofurbandwellingsthattimesthemortgageinterestrateofferedbyBancoHipotecario
(kindlysuppliedbyJuanCarmona)providestheimplicitrentofdwellingsfor1864-65and1904-1934,while
Ojeda(1988)presentsadeflatorfordwellingrentsfor1936,1939-1958.Therentofdwellingsdeflatorwas
interpolatedwiththerateofvariationoftheconstructionindustrydeflator.
117
Noallowanceforgovernment'srents(anddepreciation)frombuildingswasmade.Wagesandsalaries
paidbythegovernmentaretakenfromComín(1985b).ThecostoflivingindexderivesfromOjeda(1988)
for1909-58anditwasbackcastedto1850withReherandBallesteros(1993)priceindex.Thisoptionhas
64
atcurrentpriceswasobtainedbybackcastingthe1958benchmarklevelwiththerateof
variationofwagesandsalariespaidbythecentralgovernment.
III.4.6EducationandHealth
Foreducationservices,anindexofschoolingweightedbydeflatedGovernment
expenditureoneducation,toallowforqualitychanges,wasused.118Forhealth,the
numberofhospitalpatientswascombinedwithdeflatedpublicexpenditureonhealthin
ordertoincorporatequalityimprovements.119Valueaddedineducationandhealthwas
obtainedbyprojectingvalueaddedin1958withtheirquantityindicesandawholesale
priceindex.
III.4.7OtherServices
Inthecasesofhouseholdservicesandliberalprofessions,theusualassumptionthat
outputevolvedasthelabourforceemployedineachsectorwasaccepted,namely,thatno
productivitygrowthoccurred,andyearlyfigureswereobtainedfromlog-linearly
interpolatingcensusdata.120Valueaddedwasreachedbylinkingthe1958leveltothe
quantityindexandawageindex(householdservices)orthewholesalepriceindex(liberal
professions).Finally,forhotel,restaurantandleisureserviceswerecrudelyapproximated
combiningindicesofroomoccupancyandleisure.121Valueaddedwasderivedbysplicing
1958levelwiththequantityindexandthecostofliving.
beenpreferedtothealternativeofdeflatinggovernment’swagesandsalariesbyawagesindex.Thelatter
wouldimplythatnolabourproductivityincreasetakesplaceatall,sincetotalwagesandsalariespaidbythe
government,thatis,employmentnumberstimeswages,aredeflatedbyawageindex(Krantz,1994).This
onlyholds,ofcourse,undertheassumptionthatwagesinthepublicsectorandintheeconomyasawhole
evolvethesame.Inthefavouredalternative,ifwagesandsalariesrisefasterthanprices,aproductivity
increasewillbeattributedtogovernment(Heston,1994:46).
118
Ageometricaveragewascomputedwithindicesofeducationenrolment(primary,secondary,and
tertiaryeducationlog-linearlyinterpolated)fromAlmarcha,1975;Anuario(s)Estadístico(s);Núñez,1993;
Mitchell,1992)andGovernmentexpenditureoneducation(Comín(1985b)deflatedbyawholesaleprice
index(Sardá,1948;Ojeda,1988).AnalternativemeasuresusingNúñez(2005)dataoneducationenrolment
hardlyalterstheoverallindexsoIhavekepttheinitialestimates.
119
Ageometricmeanofthenumberofpatientsandpublicexpenditureonhealthdeflatedwithawholesale
priceindex,expressedinindexform,wascomputed.ThesourcesareAlmarcha(1975)andAnuario(s)
Estadístico(s).Before1909,itwasassumedthathealthservicesevolvedaseducationservices.
120
ThesourcesareSpain’spopulationcensus.Alternatively,itcouldhavebeenassumedsteadylabour
th
productivityimprovementovertimeasLewis(1978:264)didforlate19 centuryBritain.
121
Evidenceonroomoccupancywasonlyavailablesince1941.Over1901-1941,theindexofleisurewas
employedonly.Thisleisureindexwasanaverage(withTIOE58weights)oftheatreandcinema(from1940
65
III.4.8ValueAddedinServices
Next,indexnumbersforthedifferentbranchesofservicesweremergedintoan
aggregateindex,with1913,1929,and1958weights,whichcorrespondtotheir
contributionstototalgrossvalueaddedinservices(Table11).Acompromise,singleindex
wascomputedthroughavariableweightedgeometricaverage,asinthecasesof
agricultureandindustry.
Aggregategrossvalueaddedatcurrentpriceswascomputedbyaddingupall
services’valueadded.Animplicitdeflatorwasobtainedfromcurrentvalue(inindexform)
andtheaggregatequantityindex.
Table11
BreakdownofGrossValueAddedinServices,1913-1958(%)
TransportandCommunications
Trade,WholesaleandRetail
BankingandInsurance
PropertyofDwellings
PublicAdministration
Education
Health
Restaurants,Hotels
DomesticService
LiberalProfessions
1913
18.2
31.7
2.3
7.7
13.8
2.6
0.5
10.6
3.0
9.5
1929
23.3
29.6
4.6
6.9
12.1
2.4
0.8
7.0
3.0
10.2
1958
16.0
27.9
8.6
7.6
12.6
2.9
2.4
5.6
4.2
12.2
Sources:1958,CNE58;1913-1929,seetext.
III.5TotalGrossValueAddedandGDPatMarketPrices
ARealGrossValueAddedindexwasconstructedfor1850-1958byweightingoutput
volumeindicesforeachmajorbranchofeconomicactivity(agriculture,industry,
construction,andservices)withtheirsharesintotalgrossvalueaddedfor1958.122
NominalGrossValueAddedwasobtainedbyaddingupGVAatcurrentpricesforeach
onwards)andbullfighting(since1901)attendance.Forthelatenineteenthcentury,itwasassumedthatthe
indexfluctuatesalongtheretailandwholesaletradeindex.
122
Alternatively,independentindiceshavebeenbuiltfor1850-1913,1913-1929,and1929-1958and,then,
splicedusingvariableweightedgeometricaveragesofthethreeindices.Differencesbetweenthechain
indexandthesingle1958-weightedindexarepracticallynegligibleduetothefactthatchainindiceshave
beenpreviouslycomputedforeachmainsectorofeconomicactivity.Therefore,Ihavepreferredthe
aggregateGVAseriesthatresultsfromsingle1958weighting,soadditivityoftheaggregateindex’s
componentsismaintainedthroughout1850-1958.Inthealternativeapproach,additivitywouldonlyholdfor
eachperiod,butnotfortheaggregate,singleGVAindex.
66
majorbranchofeconomicactivity.GDPatmarketpricesresultedfromaddingindirect
taxeslesssubsidiestototalGVA.AnimplicitGrossValueAddeddeflatorwasderivedfrom
nominalandrealvaluesexpressedinindexform(1958=1).RealGDPatmarketpriceswas
derivedwiththeGVAdeflator.
67
IV.MEASURINGGDP,1850-1958:DEMANDSIDE.
Measuringaggregateeconomicactivitythroughtheexpendituresiderepresents
addingupallfinalproductsorsalestofinaldemand.Ideally,eachexpenditurecomponent
shouldbecomputedwithactualdatafromhouseholds,firms,andpublicadministration.
Unfortunately,lackofdirectevidencerenderssuchataskimpossibleandtheso-called
commodityflowsapproachprovidesasecond-bestalternative.123Thismethoduses
outputfiguresforagricultureandindustrythatareadjustedtoincludeimportsandto
excludeexportsinordertoderiveestimatesofconsumptionandinvestment.An
implicationisthattheGDPoutputandexpenditureestimatesarenotindependentfrom
eachother.
Iwillsuccintlydescribetheproceduresandsourcesusedtoderiveestimatesfor
privateandpublicconsumptionofgoodsandservices,domesticinvestment,andnet
exportsofgoodsandservices.Inallcases,exceptfornetexportsofgoodsandservices,
thesamemethodemployedintheoutputapproachtoobtainGDPlevelswillbefollowed.
Thatis,inordertocomputeannualnominalGDPthelevelforeachexpenditure
componentin1958wasbackcastedwiththeyearlyvariationsofLaspeyresquantityand
Paaschepriceindicesandtheresultingseriesaddedup.Forinvestment,private
consumptionandgrossdomesticexpenditurequantityindicesat1913,1929and1958
relativepriceswereconstructedand,then,asingleindexforeachdemandcomponent
wasobtainedbysplicingthethreevolumeindicesusingavariableweightedgeometric
average.AvolumeindexofrealGDPresultsfromaddingupitscomponentindiceswith
weightsfrom1958nationalaccounts.
Awordofwarningisnecessary.GDPestimatesfromtheexpenditureandoutput
sidesarenotcoincidental.Sinceitiswidelyacceptedthatmeasurementerrorstendtobe
smallerwhentheproductionapproachisused,IhavechosenGDPcomputedfromoutput
sideasthe‘controlfinal’,andprivateconsumption,thelargestexpenditurecomponent,
123
Thecommodityflowsapproachiscommoninpresenttimedevelopingcountries(Heston,1994)andin
historicalnationalaccounts.Cf.thepioneeringworkbyJefferysandWalters(1955)ontheU.K.,extendedby
Deane(1968)andFeinstein(1972),andmorerecently,theresearchbyCarreras(1985)onSpain,Vitali
(1992)andBaffigi(2013)onItaly,andSmits,HorlingsandvanZanden(2000)ontheNetherlands.
68
wasadjustedsoGDPfromthedemandsideconformstoGDPderivedfromthesupply
side.
IV.1ConsumptionofGoodsandServices
Consumptionrepresentsthepartoffinaloutputusedupforitsownsake.Current
expenditureongoodsandservicesbyconsumers(householdsandnon-profit
organizations)andbypublicadministration(centralandlocalgovernment)canbe
distinguished.Whiletastes,incomes,andrelativepriceswilldeterminehousehold
consumption,politicalmotivesarebehindpublicconsumption(Beckerman,1976).
IV.1.1PrivateConsumption
Toderiveyearlyestimatesofprivateconsumptionquantityandpriceindiceswere
constructedforitsmajorcomponents:foodstuffs,beverages,andtobacco;clothing;
currenthousingexpenses,includingtherentofdwellings,heatingandlighting,plus
currentexpensesonhouseholdmaintenance;householdconsumptionofdurablegoods;
hygieneandpersonalcare;transportandcommunications;leisure;andotherservices
includingeducationandfinancialservices.Mostoftheavailableevidenceforprivate
consumption’scomponentscomesfromoutputestimatestowhichnetimportswere
added.Iwilldiscussbrieflytheconstructionofindicesforeachconsumptioncomponent.
Paaschepriceindiceswerecomputedforeachprivateconsumptioncomponentusing,
unlessotherwisestated,thesamemethodandevidencedescribedforagricultureand
industryintheprevioussection.124
IV.1.1.1Foodstuffs,Beverages,andTobacco
Thiswasstillthemaincomponentofprivateconsumptionby1958,andincludes
breadandcereals,meat,fish,milk,cheeseandeggs,oilandfat,potatoes,legumes,
vegetablesandfruit,coffeeandcocoa,andsugar,plusbeverages(beer,wine,brandy)and
tobacco.Evidenceonquantitiesandpricesgatheredtocomputeoutputinagricultureand
infoodindustryintheprevioussectiontogetherwithnetimportshasbeenusedto
124
Unfortunatelly,pricesare,unlessotherwisestated,wholesalepricesandnotretailprices,asnational
accountsconventionestablishes.
69
produceconstantandcurrentpriceseriesoffoodstuffsconsumption.125Major
consumptiongroupsinnationalaccounts(CNE58)weredissagregatedintoitsindividual
componentsusingtheinput-outputtablefor1958(TIOE58).Consumption,inmostcases,
wasestimatedfromfinaloutputfigures,thatis,totaloutputlesseedandanimalfeed,to
whichnetimportswereadded.126Wheatandricemillingoutputwereacceptedas
indicatorsforbreadandcereals.Evidenceonmeatconsumptionincapitalcitieswasused
tocrosscheckestimatesoftotalconsumptiononthebasisofmeatoutputplusnet
imports.127Fishcapturesplusnetimportswereusedforfishconsumption.Formilk,
cheeseandeggs,outputfigureswereused.Foroilandfat,evidenceontheproportionof
humanconsumptionofoliveoilanditsderivativeswasemployed.128Dataonfinaloutput
lessnetexportswereusedforpotatoes,legumes,vegetables,andfruits.Theconsumption
ofsugar(bothcaneandbeet)wasobtainedbyaddingupoutputandnetimports.129
Importswereacceptedfortheconsumptionoftobacco,chocolate(cocoa),andcoffee.130
Quantityindiceswerecomputedwith1870,1890,1913,1929and1958benchmarksand,
then,splicedintoasingleindexusingvariableweightedgeometricaveragesinwhichthe
largerweightcorrespondstothecloserbenchmark(seeexpression12).Individualprice
seriesweretakenfromthesectiononoutput.APaaschepriceindexwasderivedfrom
currentvalues(inindexform)andthechainLaspeyresquantityindex.131
IV.1.1.2ClothingandOtherPersonalArticles
Theoutputandpriceseriesforclothingandshoemakingwereacceptedand
aggregatedwithweightsfrom1958nationalaccounts(CNE58).Forclothingaspliced
125
Netimports,thatis,retainedimportslessdomesticexports,weretakenfromEstadística(s)delcomercio
exterior.GallegoandPinilla(1996)provideagriculturaltradefiguresat1910pricesformaincommodity
groupsintheyears1850-1935,andIhavedrawnontheirfigureswhenevernecessary.
126
ThedescriptionoftheconstructionofoutputfiguresispresentedinsectionIIIoftheessay.
127
GómezMendoza(1995)providesestimatesofmeatconsumptionfor1900-1933.Anuario(s)Estadístico(s)
provideconsumptionfiguresfrom1921onwards.
128
GarcíaBarbancho(1960:299).
129
MartínRodríguez(1995)suppliesquinquennialaverageestimatesofsugarconsumptionfrom1855to
1904.IconstructedannualconsumptionestimatesforthenineteenthcenturyonthebasisofMartín
Rodríguezestimates,importsofsugar,anddataondomesticproduction.
130
AlonsoAlvarez(1993,1995)providescurrentvaluesoflegalconsumptionoftobacco.Anuario(s)
Estadístico(s)presentevidencefor1901-1958.EstimatesofsmugglingthroughGibraltarandPortugalfor
1850-1913areprovidedinPradosdelaEscosura(1984).
131
Incidentally,thePaaschedeflatorforfoodstuffs,beverages,andtobaccomatchescloselyMaluquerde
Motes(2006)Laspeyresindexoffoodstuffs.
70
indexforthewholeperiodunderconsiderationwasconstructedusing1913,1929,and
1958weights.
IV.1.1.3HousingCurrentExpenses
Underthislabel,dwellingrents,heatingandlighting,andmaintenanceexpensesare
included.Forrentspaidfordwellingsandforthoseimputedwhenoccupiedbytheir
owners,quantitiesandpricesfromtheoutputserieswereaccepted.Forheatingand
lighting,figuresondomesticconsumptionofelectricityandgasareprovidedbyAnuario(s)
Estadístico(s)since1901and1930,respectively.Ihavecomputedfiguresfortheearlier
yearsbyextrapolatingconsumptionlevelswiththerateofvariationforelectricityandgas
totaloutput.Domesticconsumptionofcoalwasalsoadded,butlackofdirectevidenceled
metoassumethathouseholdconsumptionofcoalevolvedastotalcoalconsumption.
Pricesweretakenfromtheoutputestimates.Householdmaintenanceexpenseswere
computedbyaddingupdomesticservicesandtheconsumptionofnon-durablegoods
with1958inputoutputweights.132Outputandpriceestimatesfordomesticserviceswere
employed.Non-durablegoodsconsumptionwasestimatedthroughbackwardprojection
of1958levels,takenfromtheinput-outputtable(TIOE58),withtheratesofvariationof
itsoutput,underthearbitraryassumptionthathouseholdconsumptionrepresenteda
stableproportionofitsproduction.133
IV.1.1.4HouseholdConsumptionofDurableGoods
Householdconsumptionofdurableswasapproximatedwithfurnitureconsumption.
1958consumptionlevelswerebackcastedwithratesofvariationfortimberandfurniture
outputunderthearbitraryassumptionthattheproportionallocatedtoprivate
consumptionwasconstantovertime.Priceindicesforoutputwereaccepted.
IV.1.1.5HygieneandPersonalCare
Theoutputandpriceseriesforhealthserviceswereusedtoapproximatethe
expensesonpersonalcare.
132
Weightswere0.5518fordomesticservicesand0.4482fornon-durables.
Householdconsumptionofnon-durablegoodsincludedchemicals(0.6748),constructionmaterials
(0.2225),andrubbergoods(0.1027).WeightsaretakenfromTIOE58.Pricesfromoutputestimateswere
employed.
133
71
IV.1.1.6TransportandCommunications
Expensesontransportservicesincludedpurchasesofautomobilesandtransportand
communicationsexpenses.1958levelswereprojectedbackwardswiththenumberof
registeredautomobilesandtherateofvariationinthenumberofregisteredcarsandin
transportandcommunicationsoutput,respectively.134
Leisure
Thecorrespondingseriesfortheoutputofrestaurants,hotelsandleisureservices
wereaccepted,whilethepaperindustry’soutputwasusedtoapproximatebooksand
periodicalsconsumption.135Weightsweretakenfronthe1958input-outputweights
(TIOE58).
IV.1.1.7Education,FinancialandOtherServices
Theoutputofeducationserviceshasbeenadoptedforeducationandresearch
consumption.Theconsumptionoffinancialserviceswasalsoapproximatedthroughits
output.Liberalprofessionsemploymentrepresentedtheconsumptionofotherservices.
Thepriceindexfor“otherhouseholdconsumptionservices”wasusedbackto1939and
splicedwiththecostoflivingindexbackto1850(Ojeda,1988).
Nominalprivateexpenditureongoodsandserviceswasderivedbyprojectingthe
currentvalueofeachofitscomponentsin1958(CNE58)backwardswiththeirquantity
andpriceindices(expresseda1858=100)and,then,addingthemup.
Anaggregatevolumeindexofrealprivateconsumptionwas,then,computed.
Quantityindiceswere,firstly,builtuponthebasisofvolumeindicesforprivate
consumptioncomponentsat1913,1929,and1958relativepricesand,later,splicedintoa
singleindexfor1850-1958resultedfromsplicingallthreesegmentsusingavariable
weightedgeometricaverageofquantityindicesat1913and1929pricesfor1913-1929,
andat1929and1958pricesfor1929-1958.Animplicitdeflatorwascalculatedwith
currentandconstantpriceestimates.TheresultingPaaschedeflatorofprivate
134
Analternativemeasurewouldbetaxrevenuesonlandtrasportation,petroleumandgasoline,andon
post,telegraph,andtelephoneservices.However,changesinthetaxratemakeimpossibletoemploy
availableevidencewithoutapreviousadjustmentoftaxreturnsforchangesinfiscalpressure.
135
Pricesusedwerethecostoflivingindexforrestaurants,hotelsandentertainment,andthepaper
industrydeflator.TIOE58weightswere0.2102,entertainment(filmsandtheatresperformances,bullfights
andradiobroadcasting);0.6291,hotelsandrestaurants;0.1607,booksandnewspapers.
72
consumptionandMaluquerdeMotes(2006)Laspeyresconsumerpriceindexarehighly
coincidental,somehowanunexpectedresultduetotheirdifferentweighting(Figure19).
Figure19.PrivateConsumptionPaascheDeflatorandLaspeyresConsumerPriceIndex,1850-1958(1913=
100)(logs)
Sources:PrivateConsumptionDeflator,seethetext;CPI,MaluquerdeMotes(2006).
IV.1.2PublicConsumption
WagesandsalariesandpurchasesofgoodsandservicesbythecentralGovernment
arebothprovidedfortheentireperiod1850-1958byFranciscoComín(1985b),whileno
dataonrentsimputedtopublicbuildingswasavailable.Annualfiguresforlocal
governmentconsumptionareonlyavailablefrom1927onwards,butscatteredevidence
existsfor1857-1858,1861-1863,1882and1924.136Ihavere-scaledcentralgovernment
figureswiththeirratiostolocalandcentralgovernmentconsumptionfortheseyears.137
Yearlypublicconsumptionatcurrentpriceswasderivedthroughbackwardprojectionof
thelevelfor1958(CNE58)withtheannualrateofvariationofcentralandlocal
136
IamindebtedtoFranciscoComínforkindlysupplyingmewithhisunpublishedfigures.
Fortunately,theratiorangesfrom0.63to0.70,inadiminishingorder.Ihavelog-linearlyinterpolatedthe
ratioandIusedittore-scalingcentralgovernment’sexpenditurecorrespondingly.Nodataexistsforthe
CivilWaryears(1936-39).Iassumedpublicconsumptionwasatitspeakduringthoseyearsandadoptedits
ratiotoprivateconsumptionduringWorldWarIIyears.
137
73
governmentconsumptionestimates.Nominalpublicconsumptionwasdeflatedwiththe
costofliving,awholesalepriceindex,andtherentofdwellingsdeflatorweightedwiththe
sharesofsalaries,goodspurchased,andrentsinputedtopublicbuildingsin1958.138
IV.2GrossDomesticCapitalFormation
Thecurrentoutputofgoodsandservicesdevotedtoincreasingthenation’sstockof
capitaland,hence,toraisingthefuturepotentialincomeflow,iscalleddomestic
investmentorcapitalformation.Fixedcapitalformationandchangesininventoriesare
thecomponentsofdomesticinvestment.
IV.2.1GrossDomesticFixedCapitalFormation
Grossfixedcapitalformationcanbedefinedascapitalexpenditureondomestic
reproduciblefixedassets(includingbothnewinvestmentandreplacement).More
frequentlyitisdescribedasthevalueofpurchasesandconstructionoffixedassetsby
residentsfirmsandgovernment,andalldurableproductiongoodslastingmorethana
yearareincluded.Inaddition,majoralterationsofexistingassetsareconsideredcapital
formationandthisincludesallofthoseaffectingbuildingsandconstruction.Inventories,
inturn,refertorawmaterials,workinprogress,andstoredfinishedgoods.
GrossdomesticfixedcapitalformationwasclassifiedintheOECDnationalaccounts
systemaccordingtothreecriteria,products,branchesofactivity,andinstitutions(CNE58).
Moredetailedbreakdownispresentedinthecontemporaryinput-outputtablefor1958
(TIOE58).Givendataconstraints,theproductscriteriawillbefollowedtocompute
historicalcapitalformationinpre-1958Spain.Asforconsumption,thewayofconstructing
currentandconstantpriceseriesforgrossdomesticcapitalformationwastostartfrom
the1958benchmarklevelandtoextrapolateeachofitsindividualcomponentsbackto
1850withquantityandpriceindices.139
Twoalternativewaysareusedincapitalformationestimates,theexpenditureand
thecommodityflowsapproaches.Theexpenditureapproachestablishestheactual
investmentbyfirmsorbythegovernment,anditisthemostrigurousanddata
138
WeightscomefromTIOE58andtheyare0.6791,costofliving;0.2995,wholesalepriceindex;0.0214,the
rentofdwellingsdeflator.
139
th
th
ThisisasimilarmethodtotheonefollowedbyFeinstein(1972:184)forlate19 andearly20 century
Britain.
74
demandingone.Itslargedatarequirements,however,makesitalsothelessfrequent
procedureinhistoricalaccountsandinpresent-daydevelopingcountriesnational
accounts.Inthepresenthistoricalestimates,thisexpenditureapproachwasexceptionally
usedforprivateinvestment(onlyfortelephonecommunications).Thealternative
commodityflowsmethodreachesinvestmentfiguresbyaddingnetimportstodomestic
outputofcapitalgoods.Inotherwords,thecommodityflowsapproachisnot
independentfromtheoutputmethod,butitistheonlyfeasiblewaytocompute
investmentinhistoricalcases,asidefromthemostrecentperiodorfromthosecountries
withexceptionallygoodrecords(i.e.,theU.K.andtheU.S.A.).
Anadditionaldifficultycomesfromthelackofevidenceonpricesforcapitalgoods.
Withtheexceptionofunitvaluedatafromcommercialstatisticsfromtradingpartners
(UK,France,Germany,theU.S.)andocassionalevidenceforbulkyandexpensivecapital
goods(locomotives,ships),deflatorshadtobeconstructedonthebasisofinputprices,
wages,andrawmaterials,combinedwithinput-outputweights(TIOE58).Thismeansthat
usuallynoallowancesaremadeforproductivitychangeincapitalgoods’industries.140
Intheclassificationbyproducts,fixedcapitalformationisdistributedintodwellings,
otherbuildings,otherconstructionsandworks,transportationmaterialandother
materials(machineryandequipment).Inthefollowingparagraphsabriefdescriptionof
thesourcesandproceduresusedtoconstructquantityandpriceindicesforthemain
categoriesoffixedcapitalformationandforvariationsinstocksareprovided.
IV.2.1.1DwellingsandOtherBuildings
Datarestrictionspreventtoconsiderdwellingsandotherbuildingsseparately.141
Capitalformationindwellingsandotherbuildingsarerepresentedbytheoutputindexof
residentialandcommercialconstruction,excludingrepairsandmaintenanceexpenses.
Theoutputdeflatorwasused.
140
Cf.Feinstein(1988:262).
SeeconstructionindustryinsectionIII.
141
75
IV.2.1.2OtherConstructionsandWorks
Roads,streets,sanitation,railways,docks,tunnels,bridges,dams,harboursand
airports,drainage,irrigationandlandimprovement,electricinstalations,telegraphand
telephonelines,areallincludedinthiscategory.
Forcapitalformationinrailwayandroadconstruction,hydraulicinfrastructureand
otherworks(maritimeandharbours),output(quantityandprice)indiceshavebeen
accepted.142
Landimprovementwasapproximated,inadditiontocentralgovernmentinvestment
onirrigationanddrainage(alreadyincludedunderhydraulicinfrastructure),through
fertilizerconsumptionandafforestation(after1900).143Priceindiceswerebuiltuponthe
basisofinputcosts.144
Capitalformationingasandminingwascomputedunderthearbitraryassumption
thatthecapital-outputratiowasstableovertime.145Firstdifferences(excludingnegative
values)intheoutputseriesprovide,hence,newcapitalformationtowhichscrappingis
addedtoobtaingrossinvestmentfigures.146Scrappingiscomputedassuminganaverage
assetlifeof50years.147Whenevidenceonscrapping,thatis,newcapitalformationfifty
yearsbackintime,wasnotavailableIassumeditwasproportionaltofixedcapital
formation.Apriceindexwascomputedwithinputprices.148
142
Forrailwayandroadconstructiontheuseofoutputasinvestmentconstitutesawidedefinitionofcapital
formationthatincludesmaintenanceandhenceitimpliesashortlifeofassets.Seethesectiononnonresidentialconstructionindustry.
143
ThesourcesforfertilizerconsumptionareGallego(1986),Barciela(1989),andEstadística(s)delcomercio
exterior(seefootnote56fordetails).ForafforestationthesourcesareGEHR(1989)andBarciela(1989).
144
Forlandimprovementsdeflator,wageswereallocated0.5andmaterialinputprices0.5(0.25for
constructionmaterialsand0.25forfertilizers).Forafforestation,materialinputpriceswereapproximated
withtheagriculturaldeflator.Weightswerecomputedfromthe1958input-outputtable(TIOE58).
145
IfollowhereFeinstein(1988:281-285,303).
146
Thesourcesforgasandminingoutputareprovidedinthesectionontheoutputapproach.
147
Unfortunately,itwasnotpossibletodistinguishbetweenbuildingsandwork,ontheonehand,andplant,
machineryandequipment,ontheother,thatdohavedifferentassetlives(60and30years,respectively,in
thecaseofBritain,accordingtoFeinstein(1988)).GiventhelongerlifeofassetsindevelopingcountriesI
assumeda50yearaverageforbothbuildingsandplantsandmachinery.Asaconsequenceofthisdecision,
capitalformationinotherconstructionandworksisoverexaggerated,asitalsoincludesplantand
machineryingasandmining.However,suchanupwardbiasissmallgiventhesizeofcapitalformationin
miningandgas.
148
WeightstakenfromTIOE58were0.49,constructionmaterialsand0.51,masonwages.
76
Capitalformationonelectricitystructureswasassumedtorepresent15percentof
totalcapitalexpenditureonelectricitysupplyandthelevelfor1958wasprojected
backwardswiththerateofvariationininstalledcapacity(kilowatts)to1890,torepresent
newinvestment,whilescrappingwasestimatedassuminga60yearsaveragelife.149The
deflatorwasconstructedwithinputpricesforconstructioncosts(0.8)andcostsofplant
andmachinery(0.2).150
Forcommunicationsworks,privateinvestmentintelephonebuildingsandworks
wasassumedtorepresent15percentoftotalinvestmentoutlaysover1925-1958.151A
deflatorcomputedwithconstructionmaterialsandwages,combinedwith1958inputoutputweights,wasusedtoderiveconstantpriceestimates.152Fortheyears1903-1924,
realinvestmentwasextrapolatedbackwardswithanindexofinvestment.Onthebasisof
thenumberoftelephoneoffices,availablesince1902,andassuminganaveragelifeabove
60years,realinvestmentwascomputedasfirstdifferencesfromwhichathree-year
movingaveragewasacceptedastheinvestmentindex.153
Oncequantityandpriceindiceswerebuiltupforeachmajorcomponentofcapital
formationon“otherconstructionsandworks”,currentpriceserieswereobtainedby
projecting1958levels(derivedfromCNE58andTIOE58)backwardsto1850withquantity
andpriceindicesthatwere,then,addedupintoasingleseries.154Quantityindicesfor
149
The15percentshareoftotalinvestmentoutlaysand60yearsaveragelifearetakenfromFeinstein
(1988:305),forthecaseofBritain.ThevalueofcapitalexpenditureinelectricitysupplycomesfromBanco
Central(1961).Installedelectricpowerisavailablesince1901inReseñaEstadística(1952)andAnuario(s)
Estadístico(s).Givenitshighcorrelationwithelectricityoutput(0.95over1901-1913),theinstalledcapacity
wasbackcastedwithelectricityoutputto1890.Forelectricityoutput,seeCarreras(1983,1989).
150
Cf.Feinstein(1988).Constructioncostsincludewages(0.51)andconstructionmaterials(0.49).Inturn,
plantandmachineryincludesteel(0.44)andwages(0.56).
151
CapitalexpenditurebyTelefónica,atcurrentprices,for1925-1958waskindlysuppliedtomebyNelson
Álvarez.Thenumberoftelephoneofficesisavailablesince1902and,assumingalifeaverageabove60years
(Feinstein(1988)assumes100years),investmentcanbecomputedasfirstdifferences.Athree-yearaverage
(Yt=(Xt-2+Xt-1+Xt)/3)wasestimatedtosmoothingtheinvestmentseries.
152
TIOE58weightsare0.49,constructionmaterials;0.51,masonwages.
153
Athree-yearmovingaverageoftheform,Yt=(Xt-2+Xt-1+Xt)/3wasusedtosmooththeseries.Gómez
Mendoza(1989)providesdataontelephonecentres.ItshouldbebearinmindthatFeinstein(1988)
assumedahundredyearsaveragelife,but60yearsisenoughtomakemycomputationalprocedure
acceptableastheperiodunderconsideration(1903-1958)isshorterand,hence,noscrappinghastobe
takenintoaccount.
154
Thelevelofcapitalformationonotherconstructionsandworksfor1958providedinCNE58was
distributedamongitscomponentsusingTIOE58.
77
totalinvestmenton“otherconstructionsandworks”were,then,constructedonthebasis
ofitscomponents’indiceswith1913,1929and1958weights,andasingleindexwas
derivedthroughvariableweightedgeometricmean.Thecomparisonbetweenmy
estimatesandthoseobtainedbyHerranz-Loncánshowsasubstantialdegreeof
coincidence,althoughHerranz-Loncánseriesexhibitshighervolatility(Figure20).An
implicitdeflatorwasderivedfromcurrentandconstantpriceindices.
Figure20.GrossInvestmentinNon-residentialConstructionVolumeIndices,1850-1935:Alternative
Estimates(1913=100)
Sources:PradosdelaEscosura,seethetext;Herranz-Loncán(2004).
IV.2.1.3TransportationMaterial
Underthisconceptallexpensesonships,vans,commercialvehicles,vehiclesfor
publictransport,airplanes,androllingstockforrailwaysandtramways,areincluded.
Purchasesoftransportvehiclesforprivateuse(i.e.,automobiles)arenotconsideredas
investmentbutasprivateconsumption.Giventhedearthofreliabledata,onlycapital
formationinrailwayrollingstock,shipsandroadvehicleswillbeconsideredhere.
Asforcapitalformationinrailwayrollingstock,newinvestmentwasderivedasfirst
differencesfromthestockoflocomotives,carsandwagonstowhichscrappingobtained
78
byassuminganaveragelifeforeachtypeofassetwasadded.155Qualityadjustmentswere
introducedtoallowforthelocomotives’increasingpower.156Quantityindicesof
investmentinlocomotives,carsandwagonswerecomputedat1913,1929and1958
pricesand,then,asingleindexwasderivedasavariableweightedgeometricaverage.
Currentpriceestimatesupto1940wereobtainedwithquantities(unadjustedforquality)
andavailablepricesforlocomotives,carsandwagons.157After1940,dataoncurrent
capitalexpenditure,availableforSpanishstatecompany,RENFE,wasdeflatedwithaprice
indexconstructedwithinputcosts.158Animplicitdeflatorwasobtainedfromcurrent
valuesandthequality-adjustedquantityindex.
Theestimatesofcapitalformationinmerchantshippingincludeallsailingandsteam
ships.159Noevidenceoncapitalexpenditureonshippingexistsbutyearlyadditionsto
tonnagecanbecomputedthroughdomesticproductionandnetimportsavailablefrom
1850onwards.160Aquantityindexforinvestmenthasbeenobtainedbyaddingnet
importstodomesticoutput.161AqualityadjustmentconstructedforBritain,adaptedto
155
EvidenceonrolingstockcomesfromGómezMendoza(1985b,1989)andMuñozRubio(1995).No
negativefirstdifferenceswereaccepted.Averagelifeoflocomotiveswasestimatedin50yearswhilefor
carsandwagons40yearswasassumed,basedonevidencepresentedinCorderoandMenéndez(1978:298299).Feinstein(1988:313)acceptedshorterlivesforrollingstockinBritain(30years).For1850-1860,rolling
stockdeflatedimportsfromBritainwereusedtoproject1861investmentlevelsbackwardsto1850.
156
Cf.Averagepoweroflocomotives(steam,electricanddieselengines)wasusedtoconstructaquality
index.EvidenceisprovidedinCorderoandMenéndez(1978:292-293)andMuñozRubio(1995:306).
157
Thereasontoexcludingquality-adjustedquantitiesisthatimprovementsinqualityarealready
incorporatedinlocomotiveprices.Pricesfor1900-1935arepresentedinGómezMendoza(1985b).Prices
werebackcastedto1877withadeflatorconstructedonthebasisofinputprices,weightedaccordingto
GómezMendoza’sestimatesand,againbackto1850,withunitvaluesfromimportsofBritishrollingstock.
UnitvaluesforrollingstockimportsfromBritainwereobtainedfromtheU.K.AnnualStatementsofTrade
andNavigation.Theweightsusedarelocomotives,0.55,engineeringwages;0.45,iron;forcars,0.35wages;
0.41,iron;0.27,wood;and,forwagons,0.4wages;0.48,iron;0.12,wood.
158
MuñozRubio(1995)providesRENFEinvestmentexpenditureatcurrentprices.Theinputsandtheir
weightsarewages(0.5),steel(0.4)andwood(0.1).WeightscomefromTIOE58.
159
Warshipsarenotconsideredhereandtheyareincludedundercurrentpublicconsumptionexpenditure,
followingthenationalaccounts’convention.
160
AnexceptionisValdaliso(1991)forVizcaya.
161
Theyearscoveredare1850-1936and1940-1958.Itwasarbitrarilyassumedthatnoinvestmenttook
placeover1937-1939(itshouldberememberthatwarshipsdidnotrepresentcapitalformationbutpublic
consumption).ThesourcesareValdaliso(1991),Carreras(1989),GómezMendoza(1985a)andAnuario(s)
Estadístico(s).Carreras’outputestimateshavebeenrevisedupwardswithGómezMendoza’sestimatesover
1855-1914.For1850-1854,theoutputlevelof1855wasacceptedasacrudeapproximation.
79
thecaseofSpain,wasintroducedintheinvestmentseries.162Feinstein’spriceindex
(adjustedforexchangeratefluctuationsbetweenthesterlingandthepeseta)wasused
for1850-1920andadeflatorwasbuiltusingweightedinputpricesfor1920-1958.163
Forcapitalformationinroadvehicles(excludingautomobilesownedforprivateuse
whichareclassifiedasconsumergoods)domesticoutput(since1946)plusimports(since
1906)wereaddedupandbackcastedto1900withyearlyregisteredvehicles.164Adeflator
wasbuiltupwithinputpricesforlabourandconstructionmaterials.165
Currentpriceseriesoffixedcapitalformationontransportationmaterialwere
obtainedthroughbackwardsprojectionofthe1958levelsforeachofitscomponents
(derivedfromCNE58andTIOE58)withtheirquantityandpriceindicesthatwere,inturn,
aggregatedintoasingleseries.166Quantityinvestmentindiceswereconstructedwith
1913,1929,and1958weights,andasingleindexwasobtainedasavariableweighted
geometricmean.Animplicitdeflatorwascomputedfromcurrentandconstantprice
indices.
IV.2.1.4OtherMaterial
Machineryandequipmentarethemaincomponentsunderthiscategory,including
electricalimplements,tractors,officeequipmentandfurniture,researchequipment,
constructionandminingmaterial,andschoolandhospitalmaterial.Dearthofdata
precludesestimatingcapitalformationexceptforelectricandnon-electricmachineryand
equipment.
162
Cf.Feinstein(1988:338-339).ThepositionofBritainasamajorshipbuilderandthefactthatSpain’sfleet
wasimportedtoalargeextentoverthestudiedperiodjustifiesacceptingtheBritishqualityindexforSpain.I
adjustedittoSpain’scasebyextendingtheyearlyrateofqualityimprovementfor1901-1913(0.83%)upto
1936,withnochangeover1936-1950,andaslightincreaseintherate(to1%)for1950-1958.
163
Pricesfor1850-1920arepresentedinFeinstein(1988:338-339,col.5).For1920-1958,inputpricesare
weightedaccordingtothe1958input-outputtable(TIOE58),0.38,engineeringwages;0.62,steelprices.
164
ThesourcesareLópezCarrillo(1998),Apps.1-7(registredindustrialvehicles,1945-1958;importedvans,
1925-1945)andEstadística(s)deComercioExterior.
165
TIOE58weightsare0.23,engineeringwages;0.77,steelprices.
166
The1958levelofcapitalformationontransportationmaterialisprovidedinCNE58andwasdistributed
amongitscomponentsusingTIOE58.
80
Mainsandotherplantandmachinerywereassumedtorepresent85percentof
totalinvestmentoutlaysinelectricitysupply.167Ascapitalstockwashighlycorrelatedwith
installedpower,firstdifferencesinkilowattsofinstalledcapacitywere,hence,acceptedas
aproxyfornewcapitalformationtowhichscrappingwasaddedinordertoobtaintotal
capitalformation.168Scrappingwasderivedassuminganaverageassetslifeof30years.169
Thedeflatorwasconstructedwithinputprices(copper,0.5;engineeringwages,0.5)
(Feinstein,1988).
Investmentontelephoneequipmentandplantwasobtainedbyassumingit
represented85percentoftotalcapitaloutlaysbySpanishtelephonecompanyforthe
years1924-1958.170Aconstantpriceserieswascomputedwithadeflatorconstructed
withinputspricesandweightsfromthe1958input-outputtable(TIOE1958).171Real
investmentwasbackcastedto1903withaninvestmentindexbuiltfromfirstdifferences
inthenumberoftelephonelinesplusscrappingundertheassumptionof30yearsaverage
(Feinstein,1988:354).
Asfornon-electricmachinery,whilequantitiesandvaluesareavailableforimports,
nohistoricalseriesexistsfortheproductionofmachinery.172Ihavebackcastedthelevel
for1958withtherateofvariationofanindexofinputconsumptionintheengineering
industrycomputedthroughthecommodityflowsmethod.Ironandsteeloutputplusnet
imports,fromwhichironandsteelconsumptionintheconstructionofdwellings,shipping
andrailwayrollingstockwasdeducted,arethebasicseriesavailabletocomputethe
167
Distinguishingbetweenbuildingsandplantandequipmentisdifficult,andIhadtoestimatecapital
formationforstructuresandplantandmachineryfromthesameinstalledcapacityseries(seethesectionon
otherconstructionsandworks).Investmentexpenditureisavailablesince1953(BancoCentral,1961).The
seriesofinstalledpowercovertheperiod1901-1958andthesourcesareReseñaEstadísticaandAnuario(s)
Estadístico(s).Giventhehighcorrelation(0.987over1901-1935)betweenelectricityoutputandinstalled
power,theformerwasusedtobackcasttheestimatesto1890.ElectricityoutputcomesfromCarreras
(1989).
168
Negativefirstdifferenceswereexcluded.Atwo-yearaverage,Yt=0.5Xt-1+0.5Xt,wascomputedto
smoothinginvestment.
169
Assetlifeforelectricitysupplymeansandotherplantandequipmentare25and20yearsrespectivelyin
theBritishcase(Feinstein,1988:305).Iassumedalongeraveragelife,30years,inthecaseofSpain.
170
InvestmentexpenditurebySpanishtelephonemonopolywaskindlyprovidedbyNelsonÁlvarez.
171
Weigths,accordingtoTIOE58,were0.25,copper;0.25,steel;0.5engineeringwages.
172
Unfortunately,suchdifficultyisfrequentinhistoricalstudies.See,forexample,Cairncross(1953),Lewis
(1978),andFeinstein(1988)fortheU.K.,andSmitsetal.(2000)fortheNetherlands.
81
outputofmachineryandequipment.173Athree-yearmovingaveragefortheironandsteel
availableformachineryindustry’sconsumptionwascomputedtoallowforstocksand,
then,aqualityadjustmentof0.5percentperyearwasapplied.174Amachineryoutput
deflatorwasconstructedbycombiningengineeringwagesandsteelpriceswith1958
input-outputweights.175
Asforothercomponentsoffixedcapitalformation,investmenton‘othermaterial’
(machineryandequipment)atcurrentpriceswereobtainedbyextrapolating1958levels
backwardswithquantityandpriceindicesforitscomponentsthat,later,wereaddedup
intoasingleseries.176Realindicesforinvestmentinmachineryandequipmentwere
constructedwithitscomponents’volumeindicesusing1913,1929and1958weights,and
acompromiseindexwasreachedthroughvariableweightedgeometricmean.Animplicit
deflatorwasderivedfromcurrentandconstantpriceseries.
Grossdomesticfixedcapitalformationatcurrentpriceswasobtainedbyaddingup
itscomponents’nominalvalue.Quantityindicesforfixedcapitalformationwere
constructedcombiningitsmaincomponentsat1913,1929and1958pricesthatwere,in
turn,splicedintoasingleindexusingavariableweightedgeometricaverage.Animplicit
deflatorwasderivedfromcurrentandconstantpriceseries.
Inorderandtokeepconsistencywithpost-1958nationalaccounts,fixedcapital
formationwasdistributedintofourmaincategories,residentialstructures(dwellings),
173
Theestimatesofironandsteelconsumptioninrollingstockandshipbuildingwerecomputedusing
conversioncoeeficientsprovidedbyGómezMendoza(1982,1985a,1985b).Fordwellings,Schwartz(1976)
providestheironandsteelconsumptionperbuildingin1958thathasbeendownwardadjustedforearlier
yearswhentheconsumptionofironandsteelwassignificantlysmaller.
174
TheformofthemovingaverageisYt=(Xt-2+Xt-1+Xt)/3.Thequalityadjustmentorallowance,asFeinstein,
putit,“fortheupwardtrendinthedegreeoffabrication”hasbeenpreviouslyemployedinLewis(1978)and
Feinstein(1972,1988).
175
AccordingtoTIOE58,weightswere0.44,engineeringwages;0.56,steelprices.Formachineryimports,
theplant,machineryandequipmentdeflatorforBritainconstructedbyFeinstein(1988)wasadoptedover
1850-1920(adjustedforexchangeratefluctuationsbetweenthesterlingandthepeseta).After1920,an
inputcostindexwasusedwithequalweightsforengineeringwagesandsteelplates.
176
Thelevelofcapitalformationonothermaterialsfor1958providedinCNE58wasdistributedamongits
componentsusing1958Input-OutputTable(TIOE58).
82
non-residentialstructures(otherbuildingsandotherconstructionsandworks),
transportationmaterial,andmachineryandequipment.177
IV.2.2VariationsinStocks
Purchasesofrawmaterialsforfurtherelaboration,workinprogress,orpartially
transformedproductsthatarenotonsaleunlessafinaltransformationtakesplace,plus
storedfinishedgoodsforfuturesale,areallincludedinthiscategory.Variationsin
livestock,inagriculture,trade,andmanufacturingalsoaretakenintoaccount.
Lackofhistoricaldataoninventorieshasfrequentlyforcedresearcherstolookfor
short-cutestimates.IntheirpioneercontributionontheBritishcase,JefferysandWalters
(1955:7)assumedthattheannualvariationinthestocksvaluewas“equalto40percent
ofthefirstdifferencebetweennationalincomeestimatesinsuccesiveyears”.Feinstein
(1972,1988)assumed,inturn,thattheratioofstockstooutputwasstableovertimeand,
hence,thechangeoffinalexpenditurecorrespondedtostockbuilding.ForSpain,asimilar
approachwasfollowed,andIacceptedtherateofvariationoffinaldemandatcurrent
prices(GDPatmarketprices,derivedfromtheoutputapproach,plusimportsofgoods
andservices)toapproximatestockbuildingandsplicedittothelevelofvariationsin
stocksin1958(CNE58).Awholesalepriceindexwasusedtodeflatetheseries.
Lastly,variationsinstockswereaddedtogrossdomesticfixedcapitalformationto
obtaintotaldomesticinvestment.
IV.3NetExportsofGoodsandServices
TocomputeGDPfromtheexpendituresidethenetvalueofgoodsandservices
suppliedtotherestoftheworld(excludingnetreturnstofactorsofproduction)shouldbe
addedtoconsumptionandcapitalformation.Twomaincategoriesareincludedunderthis
label,netexportsofgoodsandservicesandnon-residentsexpensesinSpain(netof
residentexpensesabroad).Freeonboard(f.o.b.)valueofgoodsexportedandimported,
commoditytransportservicesprovidedbyresidentstoforeigners,andbyforeignersto
residents;andotherincomes(insurance,communications,patents’royalties)derived
177
Dwellingsweresplitfrom“otherbuildings”byprojectingtheirbenchmarklevelswiththesamevolume
indexfor“dwellingsandotherbuildings”and,theresulting“otherbuildings”serieswas,then,wasaddedto
“otherconstructionsandworks”toconformanindexfornon-residentialstructures.Theinvestmentlevels
foreachtypeofcapitalformationin1958wereobtainedfromTIOE58.
83
fromnonresidents,andthosepaidbyresidents,areconsideredundertradedgoodsand
services.Underthesecondlabelareincluded:consumptionexpensesinSpainbynon
residentslessexpendituresofresidentsabroad,paymentsbynonresidentstonationals
forpassengertransportservicesnetofthosepaymentsbyresidentstoforeignpassenger
carriers,andanyothernetexpensesbynonresidentswithinSpanishboundaries.
Currentvaluesofexportsandimportsofgoodsandservicesfor1940-1958arefrom
ElenaMartínezRuíz(2003).178Fortheperiod1850-1939,thesourcesandproceduresused
toconstructcurrentvaluesforthemaincomponentsofexportsandimportsofgoodsand
servicesarebrieflydescribedbelow.
IV.3.1NetExportsofGoods
Freeonboard(f.o.b.)valueofgoodsexportedandimportedneedstobecomputed.
DatafromSpanishofficialtradestatisticshavebeencorrectedforquantity
underestimationandpricebiasesthroughacomparisonofSpanishtradewithitsmain
tradingpartnersonthebasisofforeignandSpanishtradestatisticsbyPradosdela
Escosura(1986)for1850-1913(whoincludedanestimateofsmugglingthroughGibraltar
andPortugal),AntonioTenaJunguito(1992)for1914-1935,andMartínezRuíz(2003,
2006)for1936-1939.Cost,insurance,andfreight(c.i.f.)importswereconvertedintof.o.b.
importstocomplywithbalanceofpaymentsconventions.179Inaddition,exportsand
importsweregrossed-uptoincludetheCanarieswhiletradebetweentheseislandsand
thePeninsulawasexcluded.180
178
Theautorkindlysuppliedherdata.
Officialimportsfor1850-1913havebeennowcorrectedwithacoefficientderivedfromasampleof
Spain’smaintradingpartnersinsteadofwithcoefficientsobtainedfromcommodityandcountrysamplesfor
primaryproductsandmanufactures,respectively,asinPradosdelaEscosura(1986).Thechangewas
introducedtomaintainconsistencywithTenaJunguito(1992)andMartínezRuíz(2003)estimatesfor19141958.Itmustbestressedthatthenewresultsarealmostidenticaltotheearlierones.Minorchangeshave
alsobeenintroducedinTenaJunguito(1992)seriesbychoosingdifferentfreightindicesintheconstruction
offreightfactors.Thus,the1913exportfreightfactor(ratiooffreightcoststothevalueofcommodities
traded)fromPradosdelaEscosura(1986)hasbeenextrapolatedwithironorefreights(from(1998),
expressedinindexform,asthenumerator,andtheexportpriceindex,asthedenominator.Asregards
imports,TenaJunguito(1992)freightfactorfor1926hasbeenprojectedovertimewithafreightindex
computedasatradeweightedaverageofcoalandwheatfreights(tonsimportedaretheweights)andthe
importpriceindex.
180
NeitherTenaJunguito(1992)norMartínezRuiz(2003)includedtheCanaryIslandsintotheirSpanish
tradeestimates.Ire-scaledtheirrevisedtradeserieswiththeSpainandCanaryIs.toSpainratio.This
179
84
IV.3.2GoldandSilver
Quantitiesofgoldandsilverasrecordedintradestatistics(coins,bars,andpaste)
areconsideredasmonetarygoldandsilverand,therefore,non-monetarygoldandsilver
tradewasnotincludedintheestimatesofnetexportsofgoodsandservices.181
IV.3.3FreightandInsurance
FreightincomereceivedforexportscarriedinSpanishshipslessfreightexpenses
paidforimportstransportedinforeignvesselsconstitutethefirstitemtobecomputed
underthislabel.FollowingNorthandHeston,thefreight-valuemethod,orfreightfactor,
waspreferredtotheearningspertonmethod.182Totalfreightrevenuesonexportsand
importswerefirstcomputedbyapplyingfreightfactorstothef.o.b.valueofexportsand
importsand,then,toascertainingfreightincomeonexports(acreditforSpain)theshare
oftonnageexportedcarriedunderSpanishflagwasused,whiletheshareofimported
tonnageinforeignshipswasemployedtocomputingfreightexpensesonimports.183In
addition,freightincomefromcarryingtradebetweenforeignportswasassumed,
followingNorth(1960)andSimon(1960),torepresentapercentageoffreightearnings
anda10percentoffreightincomeonexportswasaccepted.184PortoutlaysbySpanish
shipsinforeignportsandbyforeignshipsinSpain’sharboursaspaymentsforportdues,
loadingandunloadingexpenses,andcoalareassumedtorepresentafixedshareof
shippingearningsandexpenses.185Foreignshipstransportedmoretonnagethanin
Spanishvesselsastheyexhibited,accordingtoValdaliso(1991:71),amoreefficient
procedureimpliesthearguableassumptionthatquantityandpricebiasesinPeninsularSpain(andBalearic
Is.)tradearesimilartothoseinCanaryIs.trade.
181
Thereareseriousdoubtsabouthowgoldandsilverexportsandimportswererecordedinofficialtrade
statistics(Tortella,1974:121-122).Itcouldbearguedthat,sinceSpainneverwaspartoftheGoldStandard,
tradeingoldandsilvershouldbetreatedasnon-monetary.ThefactthatSpainbehavedinpracticeas
countrymemberoftheGoldStandardledmetoconsidergoldandsilverexportsandimportsasmonetary.
182
NorthandHeston(1960).Cf.alsoSimon(1960)towhomItriedtofollowascloselyasthedatapermitted.
Freightfactoristheratiooffreightcoststothecurrentvalueoftradedcommodities.
183
FreightfactorsaretakenfromPradosdelaEscosura(1986)for1850-1913andfromTenaJunguito
(1992),revisedaccordingtotheproceduredescribedabove,for1914-1939.Thedistributionoftons
exportedandimportedbetweenSpanishandforeignshipsfor1850-1935comesfromValdaliso(1991).I
assumedthedistributionfor1940(inAnuarioEstadístico)wasrepresentativefortheCivilWaryears.
184
Alternatively,Sudrià(1990)estimatesfortheperiod1914-1920areavailableinthosecasesinwhichthe
earningspertonmethodwereused.Nosubstantialdifferencesemergedfromthetwomethodswith
Sudrià’sshowinglowerlevels.
185
ForsimilarassumptionsfortheU.S.andtheNetherlands,cf.Simon(1960)andSmitsetal.(2000).
85
transportcapacityratio.Iassumedthatmorefullyloadedvesselsmadesmalleroutlays
pershipand,hence,portoutlaysbySpanishshipsabroad(adebit)wereestablishedat30
percentofthefreightincomeonexports,whileportoutlaysbyforeignshipsinSpain(a
credit)werefixedat20percentoffreightexpensesonimports.186Finally,marine
insuranceincomeandexpenseswerecomputedunderthewidelysharedassumptionthat
underwritingfollowstheflagandexportsinSpanishshipswere,hence,usuallyinsuredby
Spanishcompanieswhileimportsinforeignvesselswereinsuredbyforeigncompanies.187
IarbitrarilyassumedthatinsurancerateswereidenticalbySpanishandforeigncompanies
andacceptedthoseusedbyPradosdelaEscosura(1986)for1850-1913andbyTenafor
1914-1939,towhichIaddedanextra2percenttoincludeshippingcommissionsand
brokerage.188
IV.3.4Tourism,Emigrants’Funds,PassengerServices,andOtherServices
Yearlyincomefromtouristserviceswasderivedonthebasisofexpensespervisitor
(netofSpanishtouristexpensesabroad)calculatedbyJáinagafor1931,timestheannual
numberoftouristsand,then,reflatedwithacostoflivingindextoobtaincurrentprice
estimates.189Unfortunately,thetotalnumberoftouristsisonlyknownsince1929andwas
backwardprojectedto1882withtherateofvariationofpassengersarrivingbysea,while
notourismwasassumedtoexistover1850-1881.190
Spainwasanetemigrationcountryoverthelatenineteenthandearlytwentieth
century(Sánchez-Alonso,1995,2000).Emigrantscarriedsmallsumswiththemtocover
theirarrivalexpenses.Itcanbereckonedthat,in1931,emigrantfundstoAmerica
186
TheideathatmorefullyloadedshipsmadesmalleroutlaysistakenfromSimon(1960).Thesefigures
roughlycorrespondtothoseacceptedbySmitsetal.(2000).
187
ThisassumptionisborrowedfromSimon(1960).Itcould,however,overexaggerateSpain’searningsfrom
marineinsurance,asitwasrathercommonforSpanishshipstobeunderwrittenbyforeigncompanies.
188
TenaJunguito(1992:39),assumedaconstant0.5percentoftradevaluefor1914-1939.Iacceptedhis
estimatefor1920-1935butassumedthattheinsurancerateevolvedwiththefreightfactorovertheWorld
WarIandtheSpanishCivilWaryears.
189
Jáinaga(1932)reprintedinVelarde(1969).Touristnumbersfrom1929onwardsaretakenfrom
FernándezFúster(1991).Theimplicitassumptionhereisthatrealexpensespertouristremainedconstant
touristsovertime.Theimplicitassumptionhereisthatrealexpensespertouristremainedconstantover
time.ThecostoflivingindexhasresultedfromsplicingOjeda’s(1988)indexfor1909-13withReherand
Ballesteros(1993)forthepreviousyears.
190
Forpassengersarrivingbyship,cf.Nicolau(2005).Thelownumbersintheearly1880sallowsthe
presumptionthattourismwasnoteconomicallysignificantbymid-nineteenthcentury.
86
represented,onaverage,200goldpesetas,thatis,400currentpesetas,includingthefare
andsmallamountstocoverarrivalexpenses.191Ifthefarerepresentedaround340
currentpesetas,60pesetascorrespondedtoemigrant’sfunds.192However,itsauthoronly
added“asmallamountforunavoidableexpenses”,tothecostofthepassage,andthis
sumismostlikelyanunderestimate.193I,therefore,acceptedahigherestimateof100
pesetasforthoseemigratingtoAmericaandone-tenth,10pesetas,forthosetoAlgeria
(andtoFrance)intheeveofWorldWarI.194Theseaveragesumstimesthenumberof
emigrantstoAmerica,AlgeriaandFrancecastayearlyseriesofemigrants’fundsthatwas
reflatedwithawageindex.195
Inaddition,revenuesandexpensesfrompassengertransporthavetobetakeninto
account.FarespaidbytouristscarriedbySpanishshipsandbyimmigrantsreturningin
Spanishvesselsareincludedonthecreditside,whilefarespaidbyemigrantstoforeign
shippingcompaniesrepresentedadebit.ThenumberofmigrantsprovidedbySánchezAlonso(1995)for1882-1930wascompletedupto1939withSpain’sofficialmigration
statisticsandthosefromthemaindestinationcountries,plusanestimateofmigrationfor
theyears1850-1881onthebasisofscatteredforeignevidence.196Theshareofarrivals
191
ComputedfromJáinaga(1932).
Vázquez(1988)providesthirdclassfarestoCuba(325pesetas),ArgentinaandBrazil(356pesetas)in
1930thatyieldanaverageof340pesetas.
193
Thisfigure,60pesetas,correspondstoalowerboundestimateoftheaveragefundsbroughtbyItalian
inmigrantsintotheU.S.A.in1892,accordingtoSimon(1960:676-677).
194
Theone-tenthratioderivesfromcomparingfarestoAmerica(Vázquez1988)withthosetoAlgeria
(MinisteriodeTrabajo1935)in1934.Thesearerouglysimilartothelowerboundfiguresproducedby
MarollaandRoccas(1991:252),forItalianemigrantstoAmericaandEuropein1911.Llordén(1988:62),on
theotherhand,providesalargersumforSpanishemigrants’fundsinthe1860s,125-200pesetas,oncethe
fareisdeducted.
195
Agriculturalwages(Anuario(s)Estadístico(s))wereusedfor1913and1925-1939,andwerelinkedto
masonwagesfortherestofthetimespanconsidered(ReherandBalleste1993).
196
For1850-1881,figuresofSpanishinmigrationinArgentina,Uruguay,Brazil,andtheU.S.A.,providedby
thesecountries’officialstatisticswerecompletedwithemigrationtoCubain1860-1861fromAnuario(s)
Estadístico(s)thatwasassumedtoremainconstantovertheperiod.EmigrationtoAlgeriawasderivedfrom
SpanisharrivalsinAlgerandOranfortheyears1872-1881,whilethefiguresfor1850-1871wereestimated
underthearbitraryassumptionthattheshareofemigrantsremaininginAlgeriaafteroneyearweresimilar
totheoneovertheperiod1872-1881(25percent).Estimatesforreturnedmigrationwascomputedby
assumingthattheaveragereturnsfromAmericafor1869-73wereacceptablefor1850-1868while92per
centofemigrantstoAlgeriareturnedhomewithinthefirstyear.Aconsistencycheckoftheyearlymigration
datawasperformedusingthemigrationbalancesfrompopulationcensusesalongthelinesdescribedin
Sánchez-Alonso(1995).DataforreturnedmigrationfromAmerica,1869-1881,wastakenfromYáñez(1994:
120).DataonpresentsthedataonmigrationtoAlgeria,1850-1881comesfromVilar(1989).
192
87
anddeparturesinSpanishandforeignshipsisprovidedbyofficialmigrationstatisticsfrom
1911onwards,andshowsastablepattern,roughlyonethirdofemigrantsreturnedhome
underSpanishflagandthree-fourthsleftinforeignships,exceptduringWorldWarIwhen
thedistributionpatternwasreversed.197Theseshareswereacceptedforthenineteenth
andearlytwentiethcentury.ThefaresfortripstoArgentina,Cuba,andAlgeriaare
obtainedfromVázquez,Llordén,andofficialemigrationstatistics.198
Lastly,Governmenttransactions(creditsanddebits)weretakenfromofficial
accountswereaddedup(InstitutodeEstudiosFiscales,1976).
Totalexportsandimportsofgoodsandservicesatcurrentpriceswerereachedby
addingupitscomponents.Constantpricevalueswereobtainedwithpriceindicesfor
commodityexportsandimports.199
IV.4GrossDomesticProductatmarketprices
AyearlyseriesofnominalGrossDomesticProductatmarketpriceswasobtainedby
addingupindividualindicesforprivateandpublicconsumption,capitalformation,andnet
exportsofgoodsandservices.AGDPvolumeindexwasconstructedbyweightingeach
expenditureserieswiththeirsharesinnominalGDPin1958.Animplicitdeflatorwas
derivedfromcurrentandconstantpriceGDPseries.
197
MinisteriodeTrabajo(1934:491)providesdatafor1925-1934.ConsejoSuperiordeEmigración(1916)
offersevidencefor1911-1915.Theactualpercentagesusedwere0.354forreturnedmigrationunder
Spanishflag(0.646forWorldWarIyears)and0.764foremigrantsinforeignships(0.276duringWorldWar
I).
198
Cf.Llordén(1988)forfarestoHavanaover1862-1876;Vázquez(1988)provideslowestfarestoCuba,
BrazilandArgentinafor1880-1930at1913pricesthathavebeenreflatedtoobtaincurrentpricefaresusing
thesameSardá(1948)wholesalepriceindexheemployedtoderiveconstantpricefares.Missingyearswere
interpolated(1862farestoCubawereacceptedfor1850-61;farestoArgentinaprior1880wereassumedto
movedalongfarestoCuba).IassumedthatfarestoAlgeriamovedalongthefarestoAmericaandthatthe
faresratioAlgeria/Argentinain1934(MinisteriodeTrabajo,1935)wasstableovertheconsideredperiod.I
alsoassumedthattouristfaresfromEuropemovedalongmigrants’fares.
199
Exportandimportpriceindicesfor1850-1913areprovidedbyPradosdelaEscosura(1988),wherea
chainpriceindexforSpanishexportstoGreatBritainwasacceptedasSpain’sexportpriceindex,andan
averageofexportpriceindicesofSpain’smainpartnersweightedbytheirsharesinSpanishimportswas
employedasimportpriceindex.Fortheyears1914-1958theexportpriceindexistakenfromAnuario(s)
Estadístico(s)andtheimportpriceindexhasbeencomputedasanaverageofexportpriceindicesofSpain’s
mainpartnersweightedbytheirsharesinSpanishimports.Thedeflationofcurrentvalueshasbeen
preferredtotheavaliablequantityindicesfor1914-1958,asthelatterarebuiltuponthebasistheofficial
tradestatisticsinwhichquantitiesandpricesaremismeasured(Cf.TenaJunguito,1992).
88
However,theresultingGDPestimatesfromthedemandsidedoshowdiscrepancies
withthoseobtainedthroughthesupplyside.Asdiscussedbefore,itiswidelyaccepted
thatbothinpresenttimedevelopingcountriesandinhistoricalaccountsmeasurement
errorsaresmallerwhenGDPiscomputedfromproductionratherthanfrom
expenditure.200Hence,IhavechosenGDPderivedfromtheoutputapproachasthe
controlfinalandadjustedprivateconsumption(bothatcurrentandconstantprices),the
largestexpenditurecomponent,soGDPfromtheexpendituresideequalstoGDPderived
throughproduction.201Theconsumptionstructureremained,however,unchanged.
IV.5GrossNationalIncome
Netpaymentstoforeignfactorsmustbeaddedtogrossdomesticproductinorder
tocomputegrossnationalincome.MartínezRuíz(2003)providesthedatafor1940-1958.
Jáinaga’scontemporaryestimatesofnetfactorincomes,convertedfromgoldtopaper
pesetas,wereacceptedfor1931-1934.202Duetodearthofdataonlyverycrudeestimates
offoreigncapitalincomes(dividendsandinterestpaymentstoprivateforeigncapitaland
externaldebtservice),onthedebitside,andofSpanishlabourreturnsabroad(wagesand
salaries),onthecreditside,couldbecarriedout.Thesearethemaincomponentsofnet
factorpaymentsabroad,asneitherSpanishinvestmentsabroadnorforeignlabourin
Spainweresignificantoverthelongperiodconsidered.
AssessingreturnstoSpanishlabouremployedabroadisacomplextaskbecause
labourincomes(wagesandsalaries),therelevantconceptforGNIestimation,havetobe
distinguishedfromemigrants’remmitances,avariablenotincludedinthecalculation.203
Actually,suchadistinctioncanonlybemadesince1917.Fortheperiod1850-1913,I
acceptedthatonly5percentofthosemigratingtoAmericaand60percentofthose
200
Statisticalevidenceonproductionseemstobemorereliablethanonexpenditureorincome.Heston
showsthatmorethan80percentofdevelopingcountriesusetheproductionsideGDPastheircontroltotal.
AssessmentsofSpanishnationalaccountspriorthemid-1960sconcurwiththisview(Schwartz,1976:456;
UrielandMoltó,1995:73).Historicalnationalaccountsestimatesconfirmthisassertion,see,forexample,
Baffigi(2013),vanderEng(1992:348),andBatistaetal.(1997)onthecasesofItaly,Indonesia,and
Portugal,respectively.
201
By‘controltotal’ismeantthat‘estimatesfromalternativeapproachesareadjustredtoconformtothis
total’Heston(1994:33).
202
Cf.ChamorroandMorales(1976)whereJáinaga’sfullsetofestimateswerepublished.Velarde(1969)
reprintedJáinaga(1932)balanceofpaymentsestimatesfor1931.
203
NetcurrenttransfersareneededinordertocomputeNetNationalDisposableIncome.
89
migratingtoAlgeriareturnedwithintheyear.204Thenextstepwastoassesstheamount
that,onaverage,wasbroughthomebyreturningSpanishworkersafteroneyear,orless,
awayfromhome.Icomputedanaveragesumthatwastakenhomebythetemporary
emigrantorsentannuallybythelong-termemigranttotheirrelativesandfriends.205
GarcíaLópez(1992)presentsthemostcomprehensiveestimatesfortheyearspriorto
WorldWarI,250-300millionpesetasasanannualaverageover1906-1910,thatamounts
to340-400pesetasperemigrant(eitherreturninghomeorsendingremmitances).I
accepted400pesetasperemigrantasabenchmarkthatwas,then,projectedbackwards
andforwardwithanominalwageindexconstructedforthedestinationcountriesand
adjustedforexchangeratebetweenthepesetaandeachdestinationcountry’s
currency.206Finally,returnstoSpanishlabourabroadwereobtainedbymultiplyingthe
annualsumperheadtimesthenumberofemigrantsreturninghomewithintheirfirstyear
abroad.
Onthedebitside,threemainitemscanbedistinguished:theexternaldebtservice,
dividendsandinterestspaidtorailwaysharesanddebenturesownedbyforeigners,and
returnstoforeignfactorsinmining,towhichcrudeestimatesofincomespaidtoforeign
204
EvidenceontransatlanticemigrantsreturnedafterlessthanayearabroadispresentedinYañez(1994)
for1917-1921and1925-1930andinMinisteriodeTrabajo(1935:14)for1926-1934.Itrepresentsbetween
3.5and6.2percentoftotalemigrationtoAmerica,averaging5percent.Yáñez(1994:225-227)provides
highershares,7.8and6.6percentfor1917-1921and1925-1930,respectively.Iacceptedtheaveragefor
1917-1918for1914-1916andthesharefor1934wasextendedto1935.Fortheperiod1850-1913I
accepted5percentandfor1922-24Ilog-linearlyinterpolatedthepercentagesfor1921and1925whileno
returnemigrantswereassumedduringtheCivilWar(1936-39).FortheshareofemigrantstoAlgeria
returningwithinayear,Bonmatí(1988:135)pointsto59percentoftotalemigrants.
205
Unfortunately,nodistinctioncanbemadebetweenshort-andlong-termmigrants.Contemporary
estimatesarecollectedinChamorro(1976),for1899,1900and1904;Vázquez(1988)for1906,1908-1913
and1920-1922;andGarcíaLópez(1992),averagesfor1906-1910and1920-1921.Lastly,thosebyJáinagafor
1931-1934werereprintedinChamorroandMorales(1976).
206
NominalwagesforArgentinaarecollectedinWilliamson(1995).ZanettiandGarcía(1977)provide
nominalwagesforCubafrom1903onwards.FrenchnominalwagesfromWilliamson(1995)areusedfor
emigrantstoFranceandAlgeria.Thetradingexchangeratesofthepesetaagainstthepeso,theFrenchfranc
andtheUSdollararecomputedonthebasisofCortésConde(1979),DellaPaolera(1988),andMartínAceña
andPons(2005).IassumedthatnolabourreturnsweresenthomeduringtheCivilWaryears(1936-39).
90
capitalinvestedininsurance,tramwaysandutilities,wereaddedforthetwentieth
century.207
Servicepaymentsontheexternaldebthavebeencomputedbyapplyingspecific
interestratestoeachclassofGovernmentbonds.208Afterthedebtconversionof1882in
whichexistingforeigndebtwasgiveninexchangefornewbonds(at43.75percentofits
nominalvalue),andsimultaneouslywiththeabandonmentofgoldconvertibilityof
Spanishcurrency,debtrepatriationstartedasSpaniardsfoundmoresecuretoinvestin
bondsservicedingoldpesetasasashelteragainstcurrencydepreciation.209Since1891,
whenthepeseta’sdepreciationtookactuallyplace,Spanishcitizenspurchasedexternal
debtbondswhileforeignbondholdersweretryingtogetridofthem.AGovernment
measureintendedtocutshortsuchatrendwastheintroductionofthesocalled‘affidavit’
in1898,whichimpliedthatonlynon-residentbondholderswouldcontinuereceivingtheir
interestsingoldpesetas(orfrancs),whiletherestwouldbepaidincurrentpesetas(and
offeredtoconverttheirexternaldebtbondsintointernaldebt).Asaresult,theexternal
debtfell,in1903,to52.7percentofitsvolumein1898;inotherwords,itprovesthat
SpanishresidentshadpurchasedalmosthalfSpain’sexternaldebtbetween1891and
1898.Hence,onlyhalfoftheinterestpaid(52.7percent)onexternaldebtshouldbe
computedaspaymenttoforeigncapitalinvestedinexternaldebtover1891-1898.
Moreover,insofardebtservicewasingoldpesetas,theamountofinterestspaid
(obtainedbyapplyingtheinterestratetoforeigndebtinnonresidents’hands)hadtobe
increasedbythedepreciationrateofthecurrentpesetawithrespecttothegoldpeseta
over1891-1914.210AfterWorldWarI,unliketheexperienceofthe1890s,Spanishforeign
debtinforeignhandstendedtodisappear.Ihavecomputedtheshareofinterest
paymentsthataccruedtoforeigncitizensonthebasisofBancoUrquijodata.211
207
Muñozetal.(1978:209-213).Electricityalonerepresented19percent.Foreigncapitalinrailwaysand
miningreached42percentofthetotal.Altogether,thesectorsincludedhereconstitutedtwo-thirdsofall
foreigncapitalinvestedinSpainin1923.
208
ExternaldebtandtheinterestratesappliedareprovidedinFernándezAcha(1976).
209
th
th
Cf.Sardá(1948)foradetailedevaluationofSpain’sexternaldebtinthelate19 andearly20 century.
210
TheexchangerateofthepesetaagainsttheFrenchfrancisprovidedinMartínAceñaandPons(2005).
211
BancoUrquijo(1924)providesevidenceonthedecliningshareofGovernmentbondsinnon-residents
handsduringthepost-WorldWarIyears.
91
Fortunatelyforthepurposeofthisstudy,railwayscompanieswerehighlyconcentrated
andthedetailedstudiesbyPedroTeddedeLorcaprovideenoughevidencetoestimate
dividendsonsharecapitalandinterestsondebenturespaidtonon-residents.212Dividends
paidtoshareholdersandinterestpaymentsondebenturesissuedbythethreemajor
railwaycompaniesareavailablefromthemid-nineteenthcenturyuptotheCivilWar.213
Boththepercentagerepresentedbythethreemaincompaniesintotalcapitalinvestedin
railwaysandtheproportionofrailwayscapitalinforeignhandshavetobeascertainedin
ordertocomputethereturnstoforeighcapitalinvestedinSpanishrailways.Teddede
Lorca(1978,1980)providestotalcapitalsharesandbondsheldbythethreemajor
companiesanditsproportionintotalinvestment,and,basedonBroder’sresearch,also
theparticipationofFrenchcapitalintotalcapitalinvestedin1867,atthetimeofnetwork
construction,andoverthenineteenthcentury.Broder’s(1976)estimatesofforeign
investmentinrailwaysallowed,inturn,togross-upFrenchrailwayscapitaltocoverall
foreigncapital.FortheinterwaryearsIhavehadaccesstoestimatesoftheproportionof
sharesanddebenturesinnon-residenthands.214
ForeigncapitalinminingwasmainlyBritish.Onthebasisofeffectivecapitalinvested
byBritishcompaniesandcumulatedtotalforeigninvestmentinmining,itcanbe
suggestedthat,over1870-1913,morethanhalfofallforeigncapitalinSpanishmining
camefromtheU.K.whiletheBritishshareraisedtothree-fourthsintheinterwaryears.215
212
Cf.TeddedeLorca(1978,1980)forresearchonNorte,MZAandAndaluces,thethreemainrailway
companies.EvidenceonforeigninvestmentinrailwayshasbeengatheredinBroder(1976).
213
TeddedeLorca(1978),AppendicesIV-9andIV-18providesthedataondividendsandinterestspaidby
NorteandMZA,whileTeddedeLorca(1980),pp.44-45,presentsthesameevidenceforAndaluces.
214
TheinformationonthesharesdepositedinordertoparticipateinMZAshareholdersmeetings(18911935),comesfromPedroPabloNúñezGoicoecheawhokindlyprovidedittome.VidalOlivares(1999:628639)presentssimilarinformationforscatteredyearsfortheNorterailwaycompany.TeddedeLorca(1980:
31-34)offersquantitativeevidenceonthedeclineofdebenturesinforeignhandsduringtheinterwaryears.
215
Cf.HarveyandTaylor(1987:197),forBritishcapital(effectivesharecapitalanddebenturesandmortgage
bonds).Cumulatedtotalforeigninvestment(excludingrailways)andcumulatedFrenchinvestmentinmining
wasderivedfromBroder(1976).WhenonlyFrenchandBritishcapitalinminingareconsidered(thelarge
majorityofit),theBritishsharerangedfrom63to73percentover1870-1900,theminingboomera(and
only22-41percentintheearlierperiod1851-70).When,alternatively,Broder’sestimatesofnon-railway
investmentfromothercountriesarecumulated,Britishcapitalrepresentedfrom52to61percentover
1870-1900(22-31percentin1851-70).EvidenceinMuñoz,RoldánandSerrano(1976)indicatesthatBritish
capitalwasabove50percentintheyears1900-1913(53percentonaveragefor1900and1912),whileits
contributionroseuptothree-fourthsintheinterwaryears(76.6percentonaveragefor1923and1931).
92
DecadalaveragesofdividendandinterestpaymentstoBritishcompaniesareprovidedby
HarveyandTaylorthatweregrossed-uptoincludeallpaymentstoforeigncapitalin
Spanishminingfor1851-1913,assumingsimilarratesofreturninnon-Britishforeign
investment,andusingtheestimatedBritishparticipationintotalforeigncapital.216
Estimatesofforeigncapitalreturnsinminingderivedthroughthisprocedurewere,then,
distributedannuallywithanindexofnon-retainedvalueinSpanishmineralexports.217
Dividendandinterestpaymentsfrom1914onwardswereestimatedbyprojectingthe
averagelevelfor1911-13withanindexofnon-retainedexportproceeds.
Finally,crudeestimatesofincomespaidtoforeigncapitalinvestedintramways,
electricity,gasandwatersupply,andinsurancewerecarriedoutthroughbackwards
extrapolationofanestimatefor1931-34(Jáinaga)withtheratesofvariationoftheir
output.218Forforeigninsurancecompanies,thevolumeofdeclaredpremiatimestheyield
ofBritishconsolsprovidedtheiryearlyreturns.219
Thedifferencebetweencreditanddebitestimatesprovidedthevalueofnet
paymentstoforeignfactorsabroad.Toderiveconstantpriceseriestheimportpriceindex
wasusedasawayofassessingitspurchasingpower.220GrossNationalIncomewas,in
216
TheBritishparticipationintotalforeigncapitalwasassumedtobe30percentin1850-1870,60percent
in1870-1890,and50percentin1890-1913(seethepreviousfootnoteforjustification).
217
Non-retainedexportsrepresentthevalueofexportsreceiptsthataccruedtoforeignproductivefactors
usedinminingproductionand,therefore,arenotkeptinSpain.Non-retainedvaluesovertotalmineral
exportproceedsrepresent0.35forironore,0.40forlead,0.49and0.625forcopperpyritesbeforeandafter
1896,0.54formercury,accordingtoPradosdelaEscosura(1988)whotookthemfromGonzálezPortilla
(1981),Broder(1981),Harvey(1981)andNadal(1975),respectively.RecentrevisionistworkbyEscudero
(1996)suggeststhatthesesharesshouldberevisedupwardsandTémime,BroderandChastagneret(1982)
pointedoutthat70-75percentofexportproceedswerenotretainedinSpain.Escudero(1998)has
estimatedthattheshareofforeignreturnsinBasqueironoreminingrepresented39.5percent(204million
pesetas)ofitstotalover1876-1913,towhichshouldbeaddedthedifferentialbetweenmarketpricesand
muchlowerpreferentialprices(thatforeignminingcompanieschargedtheirmatrixfirmsabroad)timesthe
quantitiessoldatpreferentialprices,approximately200millionpesetas,sotheshareofnon-retained
exportswouldbeoverhalfoftotalexportproceeds.Ihaveused,then,non-retainedsharesof0.55foriron
ore,0.90forlead,and0.73forpyrites.
218
TramwayrevenuesareprovidedinGómezMendoza(1989).Forutilities,seesectionIII.
219
FraxandMatilla(1996)providethedeclaredvalueofinsurancepremiabyforeigncompaniesfor19071937thatwasbackastedwiththenumberofforeigncompaniesto1850.TheyieldofBritishconsolswas
takenfromMitchell(1988).
220
IfollowFeinstein(1972)whosuggesteddeflatingthosecomponentsofthebalanceofpaymentsfor
whichnospecificdeflatorsareavailablebyanimportpriceindextoascertainingtheirpurchasingpower.
93
turn,computedaddingnetfactorpaymentsabroadtoGrossDomesticProductatmarket
prices.
IV.6NetNationalIncome
NetNationalIncomewasobtainedbysubstractingcapitalconsumption–providedin
PradosdelaEscosuraandRosés(2010a)-fromGrossNationalIncome.
IV.7NetNationalDisposableIncome
NetNationalDisposableIncomewasderivedbyaddinganestimateofnettransfers
totherestoftheworldtoNetNationalincome.Emigrants’remittancesconstitutedits
mainhistoricalcomponentinSpain.Notallemigrantssentmoneyhomewhilebeing
abroad.Inhistoricalestimatesitisusuallyaceptedthatmostofthosewhoestablished
themselvesabroadstoppedsendingmoneyafterfiveorsixyearseitherbecausetheyhave
alreadypayedfortheirdebtsorbecausetheyplannedtoinvestinthereceivingcountry.I
arbitrarilyassumedthatemigrantsonlysentmoneyhomewithintheirfirstfiveyearsand
computedemigrants’remmittancesbymultiplyingtheestimatedaveragesumper
emigranttimesthecumulativefigureofemigrantsarrivedinthelastfiveyears,after
deductingthosemigrantswhoreturnedhomewithinoneyear.221
221
FollowingSimon(1960)Ihaveattributeddoubleweighttothelastyeaofeachfive-yearperiod
considered.Duetolackofdata,nodistinctionhasbeenmadebetweenthesumbroughtbackhomebythe
emigrantwhoreturnedhomewithinhis/herfirstyearabroadandtheaverageremittancessentduringthe
fivefirstyearsabroadbytherestofemigrants.
94
V.NEWGDPSERIESANDEARLIERESTIMATESFORTHEPRE-NATIONALACCOUNTSERA
HowdothenewGDPseriescomparetoearlierestimates?222Letusexaminethem
first.Unlikecontemporarieswhowereinterestedinassessingnationalincomelevels,early
Spanishresearchhasbeenconcernedwithtrendsandfluctuationsinrealoutputand
expenditure.223AllavailableGDPestimatesareoutputindicesconstructedwithafixed,
singlebenchmarklevelwhoseeconomicsignificancetendstodeclineasonemovesaway
fromthebaseyear.224Moreover,trendsinrealgrossvalueaddedareproxiedby
productionindices,whichimpliestheunlikelyassumptionthattotaloutputandinput
consumptionevolveinthesamedirectionandwiththesameintensity.225Threetypesof
yearlyGDPestimatescanbedistinguished:OfficialestimatesbytheConsejodeEconomía
Nacional,itsrevisionsandextensions,andindependentestimates.
V.1ConsejodeEconomíaNacionalEstimates
In1944,theConsejodeEconomíaNacionalorNationalEconomicCouncil(CEN,
thereafter)wasaskedtoestimateasetofnationalaccountsforSpain(CEN,1945,1965).
Threewerethemaintargets:toprovideincomefiguresfortheyearspriortotheCivilWar
(1936-1939),toevaluate1940GDPontheavailable,fragilestatisticalbasis,andtodesign
adirectmethodtoestimatenationalincomefortheyearstocome(Schwartz,1977:460).
222
AttemptstoprovidehistoricalGDPatbenchmarkyearshavebeencarriedoutbyeconomichistorians.
Bairoch(1976)andCrafts(1983,1984)includedSpainintheirestimatesforthenineteenthcentury
computedalongBeckermanandBacon(1966)indirectapproach.FollowingDeane(1957),Pradosdela
Escosura(1982)reconstructedMulhall(1880,1884,1885,1896)figuresinaconsistentwayandderivedaset
ofbenchmarkestimatesforSpanishnationalincomefor1832-1894.Inaddition,GDPestimatesforseven
benchmarksovertheperiod1800-1930,fromtheindustryoforiginapproachareprovidedinPradosdela
Escosura(1988).
223
ItisworthmentioningMulhall(1880,1884,1885,1896)estimatesofnationalincomeforalargenumber
ofcountries,includingSpain,inthelatenineteenthcentury.Themaincontemporaryattemptstoderive
levelsofSpain’snationalincomehavebeencollectedinSchwartz,ed.(1977).TheliteratureonItaly,where
detailedbenchmarkestimateshavebeenconstructed,providesacounterpoint(Rey,ed.,1991,1992,2000,
2002).
224
Unfortunately,the1958GDPbenchmarkistheearliestavailableinSpain.New,directGDPestimatesfor
benchmarkyearspriorto1958,e.g.,1910or1930,yearsforwhichpopulationcensusesareavailable,would
berequiredtoprovidearigorouscheckonGDPfiguresderivedbyprojectingbenchmarksbackwardswith
quantityandpriceindices.
225
Thereadershouldbeawarethatmyownestimatessufferedfromthisbias(seeSectionIII).Actuallyonly
adoubledeflationprocedureforinputsandoutputwouldprovideacorrectalternative.Bydoubledeflation
ismeantindependentdeflation,withtheirownpriceindices,offinalproductionandintermediateinputsso
realvalueaddedisobtainedasaresidual.Cf.Cassing(1996).
95
DearthofdataforcedCENtosplitoutputindicesintwosegmentswith1929asthe
linkyear.Ineachcase,independentproductionindicesforagricultureandindustrywere
obtained,fromwhichanaggregateindexwasderivedtoapproximatenationalincome.No
regardwaspaidtoservicesandwasimplicitlyassumedthatoutputinservicesevolvedas
aweightedaverageofagriculturalandindustrialproduction.
Fortheearlierperiod,1906-1929,anagriculturaloutputindexwasbuiltuponthe
basisofelevenproducts,mostlydryfarmingcrops(whilenolivestockoutputwas
included),representinghalfthevalueoftotaloutput.Theindexofindustrialproduction
includedeighteenproducts,renderingagoodcoverageformining,butinsufficientfor
manufacturingandconstruction.Outputindiceswereobtainedforagricultureand
industrybyweightingeachsingleproductwithitsaveragepriceover1913-1928,andthe
aggregateresultswereexpressedbytakingtheaveragefor1906-30as100.
Thecompositionofagriculturalandindustrialindiceschangedfrom1929onwards.
Thirteennewcropswereaddedtotheagriculturalindex,distributedintoeightmain
groupsofproducts,thatreachedupto80percentoftotalproduction,whiletheindustrial
index’scoverageroseto38productsdistributedintotendifferentgroups.226Toderive
outputindicesforagricultureandindustry,quantitieswereweightedby1929farm-gate
pricesandunitvalueadded,respectively.227Improvementsindatacoveragetookplacein
the1950sbutthemethodremainedpracticallyunaltereduntil1956.
Anindexoftotalproductionwasobtainedbycombiningagriculturalandindustrial
indiceswithfixedweights(0.6and0.4,respectively,over1906-1929,and0.5each,
thereafter).Inaddition,toallowforshort-termfluctuationsovertheperiod1906-1935,a
de-trendednuptialityindexwascombinedwiththetotalproductionindex.Nuptialitywas
excludedaftertheCivilWar(1936-39)asunsuitableforpost-warcycles.
226
Inordertoreducethedownwardbiasformanufacturing,CEN(1945,1965)overweightedelectricity
output.
227
Miningwasallocated22.68percentoftotalindustrialoutput;utilities(representedbyelectricenergy),
20.96percent;andmanufacturingonly56.36percent.Ifthesizeoftheindustrialsample(2,077million
pesetas)iscomparedtoBancoUrquijo'sestimateofindustrialoutputcirca1924,itscoveragerepresents25
percentoftotalindustrialvalueadded.
96
Inasecondstage,thetotalproductionindexwaslinkedtoanestimateofnational
incomefor1923inordertoderivenationalincomeatconstantprices.228Afurtherstep
wastoobtainnationalincomefiguresatcurrentpricesbyreflatingrealincomewitha
wholesalepriceindex.Finally,fortheyears1957-1964,CENcomputednationalincome
directly.
V.2RevisionsandExtensionsofCENEstimates
ModernnationalaccountsconstructedaccordingtoOECDrulesareavailablein
Spainsince1954.AttemptstoextendthembackwardsledtorevisionsofCENfiguresthat,
ocassionally,wereexpandedtocovertheexpenditureside.Threeestimatesareworth
mentioning.
V.2.1ComisaríadelPlandeDesarrollo
AfirstattempttoreviseCEN'sestimateswascarriedoutbyComisaríadelPlande
Desarrollo,theDevelopmentPlanningAuthority(CPD,thereafter)andcoveredtheperiod
1942-1954(CPD1972).229CPDeconomistswereconcernedwiththehighvolatilityshown
byCENfiguresthattheyattributedtoitshighdependenceonagriculturaloutputandto
theexclusionofservices.ThealternativeproposedbyCPDwastoconstructanewindexof
aggregateperformanceinwhichserviceswereaddedtoCEN'sindicesofagriculturaland
industrialoutput.Servicesoutputwasobtainedbycombiningseriesontransportand
communicationsandbanking.230Arealproductindexwascalculatedbyweightingeach
sectoralindexwiththesharesofagriculture,industry,andservicesin1954GDPatfactor
cost,asestablishedinofficialnationalaccounts(CNE58).231GDPatconstantpricesfor
1942-1953was,then,derivedthroughbackwardextrapolationofthe1954GDPlevelwith
therealproductindex.GDPatcurrentpriceswascomputed,inturn,byreflatingreal
228
CEN(1945)usedanarithmeticaverageofBancoUrquijo(1924)andVandellòs(1925)estimatesassuming
thatwereindependentfromeachother.AssessmentsofCEN(1945)incomefiguresareprovidedby
Guerreiro(1946),Hemberg(1955),andFuentesQuintana(1958),allreprintedinSchwartz,ed.(1977).
Hemberg(1955)pioneeringcomputationofincomeusingaproductionapproachshowedthattherewere
enoughstatisticaldatatocarryoutadirectestimateofGDPfromthesupplyside.
229
ThepurposeofCPDestimateswastoprovidestatisticalbackgroundfortheeconometricmodelusedin
simulationsduringthethird'plandedesarrollo',aninstrumentofplanificationindicatifintheearly1970's.
230
Fixedvalueaddedweightsfrom1954NationalAccountswereaccepted.
231
Nationalaccountsarenamedafterthebenchmarkyearusedforitsconstruction.Thus,CNE58is
ContabilidadNacionaldeEspañawith1958asthebaseyear.
97
outputwithacompositeindexofwholesaleprices(0.3)andthecost-of-livingindex
(0.7).232
GDPwascompletedwithabreakdownofitsexpenditurecomponentsthatincluded
directestimatesofinvestment,publicconsumption,andnetexportsofgoodsand
services.Toapproximateprivatenon-residentialfixedcapitalformation,aphysicalindex
ofprivateinvestmentwasbuiltupbycombining,with1954weigths(CNE58),steeland
cementoutput,machineryimports,electricpower,andregisteredtransportvehicles.An
indexofresidentialinvestmentwasproxiedbythenumberofcompleteddwellings.Public
investment,inturn,resultedfromaddingupinvestmentinagricultureandpublicworks
andprovincialandlocalpublicinvestment,deflatedbyawholesalepriceindex.Levelsof
eachtypeofinvestmentfor1954weretakenfromthenationalaccountsandprojected
backwardswitheachinvestmentindextoderiverealcapitalformationseriesand,then,
reflatedwithpriceindicesforproductiongoodsandconstructionmaterials.Total
expenditureofpublicadministration(central,provincial,andlocalgovernments)re-scaled
tomatchnationalaccounts,wasusedforpublicconsumptionand,then,deflatedwitha
wholesalepriceindex.Netexportsofgoods(atcurrentandconstantprices)wereusedas
aproxyfornetexportsofgoodsandservices,exceptinthecaseoftourism,inwhichthe
numberoftourists(andthecostoflivingindexasdeflator)wasaccepted.Private
consumptionwasobtainedasaresidualfromGDPatmarketprices(derivedbyadding
indirecttaxesnetofsubsidiestoGDPatfactorcost,obtainedthroughtheproduction
approach)andthedirectlyestimatedcomponentsofexpenditure.
V.2.2Alcaide
ArevisionofCENserieswasalsoattemptedbyJulioAlcaide,apioneerofSpanish
nationalaccounts,who,concernedforitsvolatilityandcyclicalbehaviour,attemptedto
smoothingCEN'srealoutput(Alcaide1976).233Fortheperiod1901-1935,Alcaidederived
232
Theweightstriedtoreflecttherelativeimportanceofprivateconsumption(70percent)andtherestof
thedemandcomponentsofGDP(30percent).
233
Alcaidecarriedoutanotherrevisionofthehistoricalaccountsfortheperiod1901-1985thatdidnot
challenge,however,hisearlierfindingsforrealproductinthepre-nationalaccountsperiod(Bancode
Bilbao,1986).Nevertheless,nominallevelswererevisedupwardsasthehistoricalserieswerelinkedto
morerecentfiguresfromBancodeBilbao’sownGDPestimates.Alcaide(2000)revisedhisestimatesforthe
earlytwentiethcentury,startingin1898,andsplicedthemwithFundaciónBBV’sGDPestimatesfor195598
anindexofdomesticproductionbycombining,with1906fixedweights,CENindicesfor
agriculturalandindustrialoutput,andtotalemploymentinservices,asaproxyforits
output.234GDPatcurrentpriceswasobtainedbyreflatingrealoutputwithawholesale
priceindex.235
V.2.3Naredo
AnapparentinconsistencyintheCENseriesthatwouldhaveledtounderstimating
nationalincomeforthepost-CivilWaryearsmotivatedJoséManuelNaredo’srevisionof
CEN’snationalaccounts(Naredo,1991).Therationalefortheunder-registrationof
economicactivityinofficialnationalaccountsliesintheresponseofeconomicagentsto
systematicregulationandinterventionofmarketsunderFrancoistautarchy.236Healso
noticedthatCEN'simplicitincome-elasticityofdemandforimportsinthe1940’swastoo
low.Naredoproposed,then,analternativerealGDPseriesfor1920-1950baseduponthe
revisionofofficialnationalaccountestimatesbyhypothesisinghigherincome-elasticityof
thedemandforimportsinthe1940'sandbyassuminga10percentfallinGDPresulting
fromtheSpanishCivilWar(1936-1939).
V.3IndependentEstimates
V.3.1InformaciónComercialEspañola
ThecontributionbytheresearchunitoftheMinistryofCommerceandpublishedin
itsjournal,InformaciónComercialEspañola(ICE,thereafter)representedamajor
1998(alsoAlcaide’sownwork).Unfortunately,Alcaideneitherdiscusseshismethodsnorsubstantiateshis
argumentswithempiricalevidence,whilenosourcesareprovided.
234
Weightswere0.4foragriculture,0.25forindustry,and0.35forservices.Sincehistoricalactive
populationfiguresareonlyavailableatcensusyears,eitherAlcaideinterpolatedcensusdataorapplied
participationrates,derivedatcensusintervals,toavailableyearlyfiguresfortotalpopulation.Alcaide
claimedtohavingadjustedemploymentinservices"toaccutechangesintotalproduction"(Alcaide(1976:
1129).AsstressedbyTortella(1987),usingemploymentasaproxyforoutputimpliestheassumptionof
stagnantlabourproductivityinservices.
235
Alcaide'srevisionofCENfiguresfor1940-54isalsofarfromclear.HereliesonarevisionofCEN'sreal
outputcarriedoutbyTamameswithoutprovidingthereference.Moreover,whileinthecaseofGDPonly
thewholesalepriceindexseemstohavebeenused,itappearsthatAlcaidereflatedrealnationalincome
withthecostoflivingandwholesalepriceindicesweightedbythesharesofconsumptionandinvestmentin
1954nationalaccounts,respectively.
236
Naredo(1991)illustratedhisargumentbyreferingtothe26percentincreaseinagriculturaloutputina
singleyear(1951),followingtheabolishmentoffoodrationing,whichpartiallyliberalisedthedomestic
market.
99
improvementoverearlierindicesofSpanishaggregateperformance(ICE1962).237The
"generalindexoftotalproduction",asitsauthorsnamedit,covered1951-1960and
representedaLaspeyresvolumeindexinwhichthreemajorsectors,agricultureand
fishing,mining,manufacturingandconstruction,andtradeandservices,werecombined
with1958grossvalueaddedasweights.ForeachsectoraLaspeyresvolumeindexwith
1958weightswasconstructed,inwhichfourbrancheswereincludedforagriculture,
sixteenforindustry,andsixforservices,thelatterappearingforthefirsttimeinprenationalaccountsGDPestimates.238
Realproductserieswascomplementedwithaquantityindexforinvestmentbased
onconstructionandpublicworks,afforestationandtheconsumption(productionplus
imports)ofmachineryandequipment.
V.3.2Schwartz
AmajorattemptatovercomingCEN'sestimatesfortheperiod1940-1960was
carriedoutbyPedroSchwartz,attheBankofSpain’sresearchunit,whereheassembled
newempiricalevidenceandusedtransparentmethodsinwhichindirectmethodsand
regressionanalysiswerecombined(Schwartz,1976).Inthenewseries,grossvalueadded
foreverymajorsectorintheeconomywasobtainedbyregressingtheirvalueaddedlevels
(derivedfromofficialnationalaccounts)onasetofindicatorsover1954-1960,andthe
resultingstructuralrelationshipwasappliedtothesetofvariablesorindicatorsto
computesectoralvalueaddedfortheearlierpre-nationalaccountsperiod1940-1953.
Grossdomesticproduct(nominalandreal)wasderivedbyaggregation.239
237
Thefirstindependentattempttoderivenationalincomeestimatesonanyearlybasiswascarriedoutby
JoséCastañeda(1945)whoprovidedanestimateofnationalexpenditurefromasampleofindirecttaxes
andgovernment'smonopolyrevenues,deflatedbyawholesalepriceindex,fortheperiod1901-1934.
238
Eachofthe26groupsofgoodsandservices,definedaccordingtothe1958input-outputtable's(TIOE58)
classificationofeconomicactivities,wasconstructedasaLaspeyresvolumeindexwith1958weighting.In
ICEestimatesthecoverageofoutputwasfarsuperiortoCEN’s,with227and45basicseriesforindustryand
services.Foragriculturaloutput(excludinglivestock,forestryandfishing,forwhich21basicnewserieswere
used),CENrevisedindexwasadopted.Weightsappliedtoagriculture,industryandservicestoderivethe
"generalindexoftotalproduction"were0.2693,0.3200and0.4107,respectively.
239
Anindicatoris,accordingtoBalkeandGordon(1989),atime-seriesvariablethatiscorrelatedwithreal
productinthetimeperiodwhenrealGDPisknown,i.e.,thepost-1954years.
100
V.3.3Carreras
ThemostambitiousattempttoderivehistoricalseriesofrealGDPwasproducedby
AlbertCarreras(1985)whobuiltupanindexfromthedemandside,coveringalongertime
span,1849-1958.240Weightsforthemainaggregates(privateandpublicconsumption,
investment,netexports)werederivedfromthe1958benchmarkfromtheNational
Accounts,whilethe1958Input-OutputTableallowedthebreakdownofeachseriesinto
itsmaincomponents.241
However,afewshortcomingscanbeobservedinanotherwisemajorpieceof
research.Forexample,theconsumptionseriesonlycoverfood,beveragesandtobacco,
andclothingwhileservicesareneglected.242Actually,itcouldbearguedthatconsumption
growthmaybepossiblybiaseddownwardssincethegoodsincludedintheseries(food
andclothing)arethoseoflowerincomeelasticityofdemand.243Inaddition,theuseof
end-year(1958)fixedweightscouldunderestimateGDPgrowthsincerelativepricesfor
capitalgoods,thefastestgrowingcomponentofexpenditure,declinedovertime
rendering,hence,alowerweightforinvestmentthanwouldhavebeenthecaseifrelative
pricesofanypreviousyearwereused.244
240
TheonlyprecedentofCarreras'demandapproachisCPD(1972),butitdidnotrepresentanindependent
estimate.
241
Someobjectionscanberaisedtotheuseofa1958benchmarkasitcomesfromaautarchicperiodin
whichpriceswereintervenedbyGovernmentregulationandprotection.Thisisasimilarcasetothoseof
Italy's1938(Bardini,CarrerasandLains,1995:123)andGermany's1937(Broadberry,1997)benchmarks.It
canbeargued,however,thatthe1958Input-OutputTableisnotonlythefirstoneavailablebutthemost
detailedSpanishone(207sectors)todate.
242
Foodandclothingrepresent70percentoftotalconsumptioninthebenchmarkyear1958(CNE58).
However,thesampleofconsumptiongoodsusedintheconstructionoftheannualindexonlyreachesa
coverageof20percentupto1928,and41percentthereafter,asmeasuredforthe1958benchmark
(Carreras,1985:38-39,45).Naredo(1991:144)claimedthatCarrerasrelianceonGarcíaBarbancho's(1960)
foodconsumptiondataledhimtouseout-dated,downwardbiasedagriculturaloutputstatistics.
243
Incomeelasticityofdemandforhousing,durables,personalcare,transport,recreation,etc.was
significantlyhigherthanforfoodandclothingin1958Spain(Lluch,1969:68,78).
244
TwootherobjectionscouldalsoberaisedtoCarreras'pathbreakingcontribution.Government
consumptionwasdeflatedbyawholesalepriceindex,andnotbyaconsumerpriceindex,abettersuited
deflator,aswagesandsalariesconstituteditsmaincomponent,sincenocomprehensiveCPIwasavailableat
thetimethepaperwaswritten.Inaddition,thetradebalanceonlycoverscommodities.Carrerasused
officialvaluesforexportsandimportsthatexageratecommoditytradedeficitformostoftheperiodupto
1913(seesectionIV).
101
V.4ComparingtheNewandEarlierGDPEstimates
HowdoesthenewGDPseriescomparetotheearlierestimates?Thereisa
significantagreementaboutperformanceoverthelongrunbetweenCarrerasestimates
andmynewseries,althoughsignificantdiscrepanciesemergeintheshortterm.(Figure21
andTable12).Duringthefirsthalfofthetwentiethcentury,thenewGDPseriespresent
slowergrowththanthosebyAlcaideandCEN(Figure22).
Whenthefocusisplacedonspecificperiods,thevarianceacrossdifferentestimates
emerges.WorldWarIyearsseemtohavebeenoffastgrowth(CEN,Alcaide,and
Carreras),inwhichtheeconomywouldhavetakenadvantageofSpain’sneutralitytocater
fortheneedsofbeligerantnationswhiledomesticindustryexpandedonthebasisof
importsubstitution.ThisconventionaldepictionischallengedbythenewGDPseries.
Then,thepost-waryearsandespeciallythe1920sexhibitacceleratedgrowthinCENand
Alcaide’sestimateswhileCarreras’suggestdeceleration.ThenewGDPseriesprovidean
evenmoreoptimisticpicturethanAlcaide’s.
Figure21,AlternativeRealGDPEstimates,1850-1958(1958=100)(logs)
102
TheimpactofGreatDepressioninSpain(1929-1933)variesdramaticallyaccording
todifferentauthors.Spain’seconomydeceleratedbutcontinuedgrowinginAlcaide’s
view,stagnatedinNaredo’s,mildlycontractedinCarreras’computations,anddefinitely
shrankinCEN’sestimates.ThenewseriessidealongCEN’sbutwithalessintensedecline.
Earlierestimatesarediscontinuedbetween1936and1939,socomparingoutput
levelsin1935and1940istheonlywaytoassessingtheimpactoftheCivilWar.A
consensusexistsaboutasubstantialcontractionineconomicactivityduringthewaryears,
around6percentperannum,butforNaredo’smild-2.1percent.Inmynewestimates,
theCivilWarrepresentedamilderbutstilldeepershrinkagethanNaredo’s.245
Figure22,AlternativeRealGDPEstimates,1900-1958(1958=100)(logs)
Thepostwarrecoverywasmild(butforCarrerasandNaredoestimates)andshort
lived(CEN,Carreras,andSchwartz),andonlyresumedatafastpaceinthe1950s(except
forAlcaide).ThenewGDPestimatesconcurwiththeviewofapost-CivilWarmildand
245
Actually,myyearlyestimatesindicateasharperdeclinebetween1935and1938,at-11percentperyear,
followedbyarecoveryupto1944.
103
longrecovery,whichmakesSpanishpost-warexperiencedifferentfromWesternEurope’s
fastreturntopre-waroutputlevels(Maddison,2010).
Table12
RealGDPGrowthinthePre-NationalAccountsEra:AlternativeEstimates,1850-1958(%)
CEN
CPD Alcaide Naredo
ICE Schwartz Carreras NewSeries
1850-1958
1901-1958 2.6 1850-1883
1883-1913 1901-1913 1913-1918
1918-1929
1929-1933
1.7
1.7
1.6
1.8
2.2 1.7
0.6
1.1
0.1
1.2
2.2
0.3
1.6 -2.1 1.5
3.9
-0.6
-1.5
4.3 -2.1 -1.1
3.0
2.8 1.6 1.4 2.3 1.9 2.6 2.5 -2.1 1.0
1935-1940
4.3 -6.7 1940-1944
3.6 0.7
2.6
1944-1950
0.8
2.8
2.5
4.8 2.9 5.8
5.8 1933-1935
1950-1958
7.2
1.5
-6.0
6.2
5.1
-5.9
-3.5
2.6
6.5
4.0
0.6
-1.5
0.2
6.0
5.0
5.8
Note:‘NewSeries’areGDPestimatesatmarketprices.
Sources:NewSeries,seethetext.CEN(1945,1965),ICE(1962),CPD(1972),Alcaide(1976),Naredo(1991),
Schwartz(1976),andCarrerras(1985).
104
VI.SPLICINGNATIONALACCOUNTS,1958-2015
Nationalaccountsrelyoncompleteinformationonquantitiesandpricesto
computeGDPforasinglebenchmarkyear,whichis,then,extrapolatedforwardonthe
basisoflimitedinformationforasampleofgoodsandservices.Toallowforchangesin
relativepricesand,thus,toavoidthatforwardprojectionsofthecurrentbenchmark
becomeunrepresentative,nationalaccountantsperiodicallyreplacethecurrent
benchmarkwithanewandcloserGDPbenchmark.Thenewbenchmarkisconstructed,in
part,withdifferentsourcesandcomputationmethods.246
VI.1NationalAccountsinSpain
InSpain’snationalaccountsbenchmarksfor1958(CNE58)and1964(CNE64)were
derivedusingOECDcriteria,whiletheUnitedNationsSystemofNationalAccounts(SNA)
wasusedforalltherest(CNE70,CNE80,CNE86,CNE95,CNE00,CNE08,CNE10)(Table
13).247Detailedsetsofquantitiesandprices(derivedfromtheclosestinput-outputtable)
wereemployedtocomputeGDPatthebenchmark-year(1958,1964,1970,1980,1986,
1995,2000,2008,2010).248
Differencesinanewbenchmarkyearbetween‘new’and‘old’nationalaccounts
stemfromstatistical(sourcesandestimationprocedures)andconceptual(definitionsand
classifications)bases.Onceanewbenchmarkhasbeenintroduced,newlyavailable
statisticalevidencewouldnotbetakenonboardtoavoidadiscontinuityintheexisting
series(Uriel,1986:69)sothethecoverageofneweconomicactivitieslmayexplainthe
discrepancybetweenthenewandoldseries.Furthermore,discrepanciesbetween‘new’
and‘old’benchmarksfortheyearinwhichtheyoverlapalsostemfromstatistical(sources
andestimationprocedures)andconceptual(definitionsandclassifications)differences.As
246
Improvingthecomprehensiveness,reliabilityandcomparabilityofnationalaccountsestimatesthrough
theuseofnewstatisticalsources,theinclusionofnewconcepts,andtheadoptionofnewcomputation
procedures,oftenduetotheadoptionofneworupdatedinternationalstandards,arethetechnicalreasons
providedbynationalstatisticalofficesfortheirperiodicalrevisionsofnationalaccounts’benchmarksand
theresultingbreaksinGDPtimeseries.
247
AttheturnofthecenturytheEuropeanSystemofAccounts(ESA)replacedtheSNA,beingSNA93and
ESA95fullyconsistent.Seriesconstructedwithdifferentbenchmarks’pricesandquantitiesarenamedafter
theyear,e.g.,CNE70,thatis,ContabilidadNacionaldeEspaña(NationalAccountsofSpain)with1970asthe
base-year.
248
Forallthesebenchmark-yearsinput-outputtablesareavailable,exceptfor1964and1986,forwhichthe
closestonesarethosefor1962and1966,and1985,respectively.
105
aresult,theconsistencybetweenthenewandoldnationalaccountseriesbreaks.
Table13
Spain'sNationalAccounts,1954-2015
CNE58
BenchmarkYear
1958
Coverage
1954-1964
CNE64
1964
1964-1972
CNE70
1970
1964-1982
CNE80
1980
1970-1985
CNE86
1985/86
1964-1997
CNE95
1995
1995-2004
CNE00
2000
1995-2009
CNE08
2008
1995-2013
CNE10
2010
1995-2015
Note:Directestimatesonlyrefertoyearsafterthebenchmark.
Sources:IEF(1969),INE(variousyears).
Theobvioussolutiontothisinconsistencyproblemwouldberecompilation,thatis,
computingGDPfortheyearscoveredbytheoldbenchmarkwiththesamesourcesand
proceduresemployedintheconstructionofthenewbenchmark.However,national
accountantsdonotfollowsuchapainstakingoption.
Asimplesolution,widelyusedbynationalaccountants(andimplicitlyacceptedin
internationalcomparisons),istheretropolationapproach,inwhichthenewseries(YR)
resultsfromacceptingthereferencelevelprovidedbythemostrecentbenchmark
estimate(YT)and,then,re-scalingtheearlierbenchmarkseries(Xt)withtheratiobetween
thenewandtheoldseriesfortheyear(T)atwhichthetwoseriesoverlap(YT/XT).
YRt=(YT/XT)*Xtfor0≤t≤T
(15)
Forexample,inordertoobtainCNE70estimatesfor1964-1969,Spanishnational
accountantsprojectedbackwards(retropolated)thenew1970GDPlevel(CNE70)withthe
ratesofvariationderivedfromtheoldbenchmarkseries(CNE64).Theretropolation
approachwasalsoadoptedtoderiveserieslevelsfortheyears1964-1979inboththe
1980andthe1986benchmarks(CNE80andCNE86).249
249
SuchistheapproachimplicitlysupportedbyUriel(1986)andUriel,Moltó,andCucarella(2000).This
procedurehastheadvantageofbeinglesstimeconsumingandnotalteringtheyearlyratesofvariation
resultingfromthe‘old’benchmarkseries.
106
Thechoiceoftheretropolationprocedurewasmadeonthearguableassumption
thatgrowthratesoriginallycalculatedcouldnotbeimproved(CorralesandTaguas,1991).
Underlyingthisapproachistheimplicitassumptionofanerrorlevelintheold
benchmark’sserieswhoserelativesizeisconstantovertime.Inotherwords,noerroris
assumedtoexistintheoldseries’ratesofvariationthatare,hence,retainedinthespliced
seriesYRt(delaFuente,2014).Officialnationalaccountantshavefavouredthisprocedure
oflinkingnationalaccountsseriesonthegroundsthatitpreservestheearlier
benchmark’sratesofvariation.250Theretropolationapproachpaysnoregardtothe
unpredictablebutsignificanteffectsofusingasetofrelativepricesfromtheold
benchmarktoprojectthelevelofthenewbenchmarkbackwards.
Table14
GDPatmarketprices:AlternativeEstimates
(MillionEuroatcurrentprices)
[I]
[II]
[III]
CNE10
CNE08
CNE00
7265
7360
0.9871
1.0187
1.1042
1970
15806
15772 15483 13607
1.0021
1.0187
1.1379
1980
91161
91409 91264
0.9973
1.0016
0.9040
1.0118
1.0439
1.0135
[IV]
[VI]
[VII]
[VIII]
[IX]
[X]
[XI]
7225
175625
194271 192009
6543
446795
447205
437787 419387 413788
1.0281
0.9991
1.0215
629907
630263 610541
1.0259
0.9994
1.0323
1.0261
0.9997
2008 1116207 1087788 1088124
2010 1080913 1045620
[XII]
[XIII]
[XIII]
[XIV]
CNE95 CNE86 CNE80 CNE70 CNE64 [(I)/(II)] [(II)/(III)] [(III)/(IV)] [(IV)/(V)] [(V)/(VI)] [(VI)/(VII)] [(VII)/(VIII)]
1964
1986
1995 459337
2000 646250
[V]
1.0338
Sources:IEF(1969),INE(variousyears).
ThemainmethodologicaldiscontinuityinSpanishnationalaccountsoccurredwhen
theSNAsubstitutedfortheOECDmethodinthelate1970s.Table14providesthevalues
ofeachbenchmarkseriesatbaseyearsandtheratiobetweeneachpairofadjacent‘new’
and‘old’benchmarkvalues.SubstantialdiscrepanciesarenoticeablebetweenCNE64
(constructedwithOECDcriteria)andCNE70(derivedwithSNAcriteria),benchmarks
withinaperiodoffastgrowthanddeepstructuralchange(PradosdelaEscosura,2007b).
250
ForthecaseofSpain,cf.Uriel(1986),CorralesandTaguas(1991),INE(1992),Uriel,MoltóandCucarella
(2000).IntheNetherlands,apioneercountryinnationalaccounts,itwasonlyafterthe1993SNA
classificationthattheretropolationmethodwaschallenged(denBakkerandvanRooijen,1999).
107
ItisworthnotingthatthemostrecentbenchmarkusuallyprovidesahigherGDP
levelfortheoverlappingyear,asitscoverageofeconomicactivitiesiswider.Thus,the
backwardsprojectionofthenewbenchmarkGDPlevelwiththeavailablegrowthratescomputedatthepreviousbenchmark’srelativeprices-impliesasystematicupwards
revisionofGDPlevelsforearlieryears.251TheevidenceinTable14highlightstheimpact
ofsuccessiveone-sideupwardsrevisions,whichwidensthegapovertime.Infact,theGDP
figureobtainedbythecumulativere-scalingdifferentnationalaccountssub-seriesfrom
2010backwards(thatis,usingtheretropolationapproach)is28.4percenthigherfor1970
thantheonecomputedbyCNE64(and24.6percenthigherthantheonedirectly
calculatedfor1964).252
WoulditbereasonabletoexpectsuchanunderestimatefromadirectGDP
calculationonthebasisof‘complete’informationaboutquantitiesandpricesofthegoods
andservicesintheoldbenchmark?CanthedirectmeasurementofGDPlevelatanearly
benchmarkyearbereallyimprovedthroughthebackwardprojectionofthelatest
benchmark-yearwithearlierbenchmarks’annualratesofvariation?
Thechallengeistoestablishtheextenttowhichconceptualandtechnical
innovationsinthenewbenchmarkserieshintatameasurementerrorintheold
benchmarkseries.Inparticular,whetherthediscrepancyintheoverlappingyearbetween
thenewbenchmark(inwhichGDPisestimatedwith‘complete’information)andtheold
benchmarkseries(inwhichreducedinformationonquantitiesandpricesisusedto
projectforwardthe‘complete’informationestimatefromitsinitialyear)resultsfroma
measurementerrorintheoldbenchmark’sinitialyearestimate,oritisthecumulative
resultoftheemergenceofnewgoodsandservicesnotconsideredintheoldbenchmark
series.
251
Thislinkageprocedurehelpstounderstandtheone-sidedupwardrevisionsBoskin(2000)findsinUS
nationalaccounts.
252
Thispercentageincreasefor1970resultsfromsuccessivelymultiplyingtheratiosofadjacentbenchmarks
atoverlappingyears,thatis,CNE10/CNE08in2010,CNE08/CNE00in2008,CNE00/CNE95in2000,
CNE95/CNE86in1995,CNE85/CNE80in1985,CNE80/CNE70,in1980,andCNE70/CNE64in1970,
[1.0338*0.9997*1.0323*1.0439*1.0118*1.0016*1.1378=1.2841].Ifalternatively,CNE10/CNE00in2010is
used,theresultsaltersslightly[1.0254*1.0323*1.0439*1.0118*1.0016*1.1378=1.2741](SeeTable14).
108
Analternativetotheretropolationmethodisprovidedbytheinterpolation
procedurethatacceptsthelevelscomputeddirectlyforeachbenchmark-yearasthebest
possibleestimates-onthegroundsthattheyhavebeenobtainedwith‘complete’
informationonquantitiesandprices-,anddistributesthegapordifferencebetweenthe
‘new‘and‘old’benchmarkseriesintheoverlappingyearTataconstantrateoverthetime
spaninbetweentheoldandnewbenchmarkyears.253
YIt= Yt* [(YT/XT)1/n]tfor0≤t≤T
(16)
BeingYIthelinearlyinterpolatednewseries,YeXthevaluespertainingtoGDP
accordingtothenewandoldbenchmarks,respectively;t,theyearconsidered;T,the
overlappingyearbetweentheoldandnewbenchmarks’series;andn,thenumberof
yearsinbetweentheold(0)andthenewbenchmark(T)dates.254
Contrarytotheretropolationapproach,theinterpolationprocedureassumesthat
theerrorisgeneratedbetweentheyears0andT.Consequently,itmodifiestheannual
rateofvariationbetweenbenchmarks(usuallyupwards)whilekeepsunalteredtheinitial
level–thatoftheoldbenchmark-.Asaresult,theinitiallevelwillbeprobablylowerthan
theonederivedfromtheretropolationapproach.
InSpanishnationalaccountsabreakinthelinkageofGDPseriesthrough
retropolationwasintroducedinCNE86,whennationalaccountsweresplicedusingthe
interpolationapproachandtheGDPdifferentialbetweenCEN86andCEN80in1985was
distributedataconstantrateovertheyears1981-1984(expression16)(INE,1992).
However,anewnationalaccountsbenchmarkin1995(CNE95)didnotbringalonga
splicingofCNE95andCNE86series.255Inlaterbenchmarks(CNE00,CNE08,andCNE10)
theinterpolationmethodwasresumed,butonlyafteradjustingupwardstheold
253
Maddison(1991)presentedthefirstmethodologicaldiscussionalongtheselinesandsplicedGDPseries
throughinterpolationforthecaseofItaly.
254
Analternativetothelinearinterpolationisanon-linearone,inwhichthegapbetweenthenewandold
seriesattheoverlappingyearisdistributedovertheoldseriesatagrowing,ratherthanataconstant,rate.
However,therearehardlyanysignificantdiscrepanciesbetweenthelinearlyandnon-linearlyinterpolated
series(PradosdelaEscosura,2016).Therefore,inordertokeepconsistencywiththeofficialnational
accountsfrom1995onwardsandfacilitateupdatinginsuccesiveyearsIhavechosentousethelinear
interpolation.
255
TheNationalStatisticalinstitute(INE)neverproducedanewsplicedseriesofthelatestbase-yearCNE00
backto1964,1970,or1980.TheQuarterlyNationalAccountsprovidedsplicedseriesfrom1980onwards
butwithoutadetailedexplanationofthesplicingprocedure.
109
benchmarkformethodologicalchanges.256Thus,thegapbetween,say,CNE10andCNE0008intheyear2010,wasdecomposedintomethodologicalandstatisticalplusother
differences.257Firstly,CNE00-08seriesfor1995-2009wereadjustedupwardsfor
methodologicaldiscrepancieswithCNE10.Then,theresidualgap,duetostatisticaland
otherdifferences,wasdistributedataconstantrate(usingexpression16)overtheinbetweenbenchmarksyears,2001-2009.258AsaresultnoofficiallysplicedGDPseriesare
availableatthepresentfortheentirenationalaccountsera.
VI.IISplicingNationalAccountsthroughInterpolation
Astraightforwardprocedurewouldbe,then,splicingtheallbenchmarkseries
availablebyacceptingthelevelsdirectlycomputedforeachbenchmarkyearand
distributingthegapbetweeneachpairofadjacentbenchmarkseriesattheiroverlapping
yearateitheraconstantrateoverthetimespanbetweenthem.Thissolutionhasthe
advantageofbeingtransparentandlinkingdifferentbenchmarksequally.
Nonetheless,beforecomputingandcomparingalternativesplicingresults,pre1980nationalaccountsneedtobeexaminedbecause,asmentionedearlier,itisduring
thetransitionbetweenOECDandSNAmethodologieswhenlargerdisparitiesbetween
adjacentbenchmarksseriesemergedinoverlappingyears.ByexaminingthewayOECD
(CNE64)andSNA(CNE70)benchmarkswereconstructedanattempttoreconciletheir
differencescanbemade.
Inpre-1980officialnationalaccounts,annualnominalseriesof,say,industrial
valueaddedwereusuallyobtainedthroughbackandforthextrapolationofthe
benchmarkyear’sgrossvalueaddedwithanindexofindustrialproductionthatwas,then,
reflatedwithapriceindexforindustrialgoods.Projectingindustrialrealvalueaddedwith
256
NomentionofanymethodologicaladjustmentwasmadeinthesplicingthroughinterpolationofCNE80
andCNE86.
257
ItshouldbenotedthatsincetherewereminormethodologicalandstatisticalchangesbetweenCNE00
andCNE08,themajorrevisionembodiedinCNE10ledtoanewinterpolationbetweenCNE00-CNE08and
CNE10thatwasextendedovertheyears1995-2009.
258
ThesameprocedurewasappliedtothegapbetweenCNE00andCNE95in2000,andCNE08andCNE00in
2008,withthestatisticalgapdistributedovertheintermediateyears1996-1999,and2001-2007,
respectively.TheSpanishStatisticalInstitutenotes,“The[remaining]differencesbetweenbothestimates
[CNE00andCNE95intheyear2000]areduetothestatisticalchanges,andgiventhatinformationisnot
availableregardinghowandatwhattimetheyhavebeengenerated,itisassumedthatthishasoccurred
progressivelyovertime,fromthebeginningofthepreviousbase”(INE,2007:5).
110
anindexofindustrialproductionamountstoasingledeflationofvalueadded,inwhich
thesamepriceindexisusedforbothoutputandinputs.259However,onlyifpricesfor
outputandintermediateinputsevolveinthesamedirectionandwiththesameintensity,
realvalueaddedisaccuratelyrepresentedbyanindustrialproductionindex.Inperiodsof
rapidtechnologicalchange(orexternalinputpriceshocks)significantsavingsof
intermediateinputsdotakeplacewhilerelativepriceschangedramatically,and,hence,
theassumptionofaparallelevolutionofoutputandinputpricesdoesnothold.260This
descriptionapplieswelltoSpaininthe1960sand1970s,whenthecountryopenedupto
foreigntechnologyandcompetitionandsufferedtheoilshocks.261Fortunately,alternative
estimatesofgrossvalueaddedatconstantpricesderivedthroughtheLaspeyresdouble
deflationmethod262areavailableforindustryandconstructionovertheyears1964-1980
(Gandoy,1988).263Gandoy’svalueaddedseriesexhibithigherrealgrowthratesthan
CEN70seriessinceherimplicitvalueaddeddeflatorgrowslessthanthenationalaccounts’
deflator(biasedtowardsrawmaterialsandsemi-manufactures).264Thisiswhatshouldbe
expectedinacontextoftotalfactorproductivitygrowth,suchaswasthecaseofSpainin
259
Cf.Cassing(1996)foradiscussionofalternativedeflationprocedures.See,alternatively,David(1962)and
Fenoaltea(1976)foradefenceofsingledeflationasawayofavoidingnegativevaluesofrealvalueadded.
260
Inthedualapproachtocomputingtotalfactorproductivity(TFP),overtimechangesinTFParemeasured
asthedifferentialbetweentherateofvariationoftheoutputpriceandthatofweightedinputprices.In
otherwords,afasterdecline(lessmarkedincrease)ofoutputpricesthanofinputsprices,duetoinput
savings,reflectsTFPgrowth.
261
The1950s,especiallysince1953,wereyearsofrapidgrowthandstructuralchangeinwhichdouble
deflationwouldmakeadifferenceoversingledeflation.Unfortunatelylackofdatapreventsthisoption.
262
Bydoubledeflationismeantthatrealgrossvalueaddedisobtainedasthedifferencebetweenoutputat
constantpricesandintermediateconsumptionatconstantprices,thatis,eachofthemindependently
deflatedwiththeirownpriceindices.Foratheoreticaldiscussionofdoubledeflation,cf.David(1962),Sims
(1969),Arrow(1974)andHansen(1975).
263
Cf.alsoGandoyandGómezVillegas(1988).Occasionally,whenstrongdiscrepanciesbetweenoutputand
inputspriceswereobserved,anddataavailabilityallowedit,CNE70useddoubledeflationbut,inanycase,
neverovertheyears1978-1981.Inthecaseofagriculture,realvalueaddedwasproperlyassessedinCNE70,
asthepurchasesofindustrialandserviceinputsrepresentedasmallshareoffinaloutput.Asforservices,
thedifficultiestoproducedoubledeflatedvalueaddedseries,comparabletothoseforagricultureand
manufacturing,persistedovertime.
264
Cf.Krantz(1994).
111
the1960sandearly1970s,withoutputpricesgrowinglessthaninputsprices,asinputs
savingsresultedfromefficiencygains(PradosdelaEscosuraandRosés,2009).265
Thus,CEN70seriesforGDPhavebeenrevisedfor1964-1980.Firstly,Gandoy
(1988)alternativevalueaddedestimatesforindustryandconstruction(GVAGiandGVAGc)
weresubstitutedforthoseinofficialnationalaccounts(GVAcen70iandGVAcen70c).266CNE70
valueaddedfiguresforagriculture(GVAcen70a)andservices(GVAcen70s)werekept.267Total
GrossValueAddedwasreachedbyaddingupsectors’grossvalueadded.
GVAT=GVAcen70a+GVAGi+GVAGc+GVAcen70s
(17)
GDPatmarketpriceswasderived,inturn,byaddingtaxesonproductsnetofsubsidiesto
totalgrossvalueadded.
CEN70GDPestimatesontheexpendituresidewerealsoadjusted.WhileGandoy
(1988)providesalternativevalueaddedseriesatfactorcostforindustry(VAfcGi)and
construction(VAfcGc),GómezVillegas(1988)presentsnewseriesforfixeddomesticcapital
formationinindustry(GCFGi)andconstruction(GCFGc).Thus,inordertoadjustthe
aggregatefigureforinvestmentinCNE70(GCFcen70),Ifirstlycomputedtheshareofvalue
addedatmarketprices(VAmp)allocatedtoinvestmentinindustryandconstruction,
accordingtoGandoy(1988)andGómezVillegas(1988),(GCFGi/VAmpGiandGCFGc/VAmpGc),
whichimpliedadjustingvalueaddedtoincludetaxesonproductionandimportsnetof
subsidies.268Then,Iappliedthissharetothedifferencebetweenthevalueadded
estimatesatfactorcostinGandoy’s(VAfcGiandVAfcGc)andinCEN70(VAfccen70iand
VAfccen70c).
GCFaddi=(GCFGi/VAmpGi)*(VAfcGi–VAfccen70i)
(18)
GCFaddc=(GCFGc/VAmpGc)*(VAfcGc–VAfccen70c)
(19)
265
Although,fortunately,from1980onwards,CNE80providedindustrialvalueaddedcomputedthroughthe
standarddoubledeflationprocedure,double-deflatedvalueaddedfiguresforconstructionandservices
werestillproblematic.Cf.INE(1986)foradiscussionofCNE80.
266
AlsovanArk(1995)choseGandoy(1988)seriesovertheoriginalnationalaccounts.AmongvanArk’s
reasonsarethedownwardbiasinthegrowthratesofindustrialproductionindicesanditsfailuretoadjust
totheemergenceofnewproductsandqualitychanges.
267
ForthereasonstokeepingoriginalCNE70grossvalueaddedforagricultureandservicesseefootnote
281.Foradiscussionoftheproblemsinmeasuringservices’grossvalueaddedthroughdoubledeflation,see
Mohr(1992).
268
Inpracticalterms,theadjustedwascarriedoutwiththeratiobetweenGDPatmarketpricesandfactor
cost.
112
Sotheadditionalinvestment–thatis,theportionofgrosscapitalformationnot
includedinCNE70-wasobtained.Thus,
GCFadd=GCFaddi+GCFaddc
(20)
Andtherevisedfigureforgrosscapitalformationwasderivedas,
GCF1970R=GCFcen70+GCFadd (21)
Then,IadjustedprivateconsumptionfiguresinCEN70forthechangesintroduced
ingrosscapitalformation.Thatis,Iassumedthattheadditionalvalueaddedinindustry
andconstruction(derivedbydeductingCNE70valueaddedfromGandoy'sestimates)less
theadditionalinvestment(GCFadd)accruedtoprivateconsumption,sincethevaluesfor
netexportsofgoodsandservices(NXcen70)andpublicconsumption(GOVTcen70)provided
byCEN70wereobtainedfromasoundstatisticalbasis.269Thatis,
CONSadd=((VAfcGi+VAfcGc)-(VAfccen70i+VAfccen70c))-GCFadd(22)
Andtherevisedfigurefortotalprivateconsumptionwasreachedas,
CONS1970R=CONScen70+CONSadd
(23)
Lastly,thenewestimatesofGDPatmarketpriceswereobtainedas,
GDP1970Rmp=CONS1970R+GCF1970R+GOVTcen70+NXcen70
(24)
Howareinterpolated,then,earlier,pre-1980,nationalaccountbenchmarkseries?
CNE70Rserieshavebeenacceptedfortheyears1964-1969,ratherthandistributingthe
differencein1970betweenCNE70RandCNE64overtheseyears.Thereasonofthischoice
isthatCNE70Rserieshavebeenmainlyderivedthroughdoubledeflation,asopposedto
CNE64singledeflationseries.CNE70RandCNE58serieswere,inturn,interpolatedby
distributingtheirgapin1964over1959-1963.270Lastly,inordertoIderivedasingleseries
forGDPanditscomponentsforthepre-andpost-1980series,Idistributedtheirgapinthe
overlappingyear,1980,over1971-1979.AggregatedGDPfiguresresultfromaddingupits
previouslysplicedcomponents.271
269
add
r
Actually,CONS equalsthedifferentialbetweentherevisedGDPestimates(GDP mp)andCNE70GDP
cen70
add
(GDP
).
mp)plustheestimatedadditionalinvestment(GCF
270
ThereisnodiscrepancybetweenCNE58andCNE64estimatesattheiroverlappingyear,1964.Itisworth
notingthatinabsenceofdoubledeflationinCNE58,splicingthroughinterpolationprovidesacorrectionof
itsseriesthatsomehowamountstoanallowanceforefficiencygains.
271
ItisworthmentioningthattheresultingdiscrepanciesbetweenobtainingGDPthroughaggregationofits
splicedcomponentsandsplicingGDPdirectlyarenegligible.Thus,additivecongruencehasnotbeen
113
Thisstrictinterpolationprocedurehas,nonetheless,theshortcomingofdeviating
fromofficialnationalaccountsseriesfortheyears1995-2009.Thereasonisthat,as
observedabove,inpost-2000Spanishnationalaccountsitssplicingisperformedintwo
stages:firstly,theoldbenchmarkseriesareadjustedupwardsformethodologicalchanges
inthenewbenchmark;and,then,theremainingstatisticalgapisdistributedataconstant
rateovertheyearsbetweenthenewandtheoldbenchmarks.
Thus,analternativetoderivingGDPseriesthroughstrictinterpolationappears;
namely,acceptingtheofficialinterpolationlinkagefor1995-2010andinterpolatingthe
differentbenchmark(CNE58toCNE95)seriesforthepreviousyears,1958-1995.272
Itisworthnoting,however,that,inCNE10series,theGDPlevelfor1995ishigher
(4.9percent)thantheoneoriginallycomputedwithcompleteinformationinCNE95
(Table14).Whatshareofthisgapisattributabletomethodologicaldifferences?The
CNE10linkageprocedureconsistedinadjustingtheCNE00seriesformethodological
differencesbackto1995and,then,distributingtheremaining,mostlystatistical,gapover
2001-2009,undertheassumptionthatnostatisticalerrorexistsin2000.Thus,theentire
discrepancyin1995betweenCNE10andCNE95couldbeattributabletomethodological
differences.273Shouldpre-1995series,resultingfromsplicingallpreviousbenchmarks
(CNE58-CNE95),beraised,then,byafixedratio(1.0492)?Thisoptiondoesnotseem
reasonable,asitcanbeconjecturedthattheimpactofmethodologicalchangeswouldbe
largertheclosertheyear’sestimatetoCNE10benchmarkyear,2010.Acompromise
solutionwouldbetodistributetheentiregapoverthe1954-1994series.Therefore,Ihave
splicedthepre-andpost-1995seriesthrougha‘hybrid’interpolation,withanadjustment
formethodologicaldifferencesasdescribedabove.
imposed.Byadditivecongruenceismeantthattheadditionofthedifferentcomponentsofagiven
magnitude(outputorexpenditure)mustbeequaltoitsaggregatevalue(GDP).Thisisobtainedby
distributing,proportionallytotheirrelativeweight,thedeviationsoftheadditionofthelinkedcomponents’
valuesfromtheaggregatemagnitude(Cf.CorralesandTaguas,1991).Thisisimplicitlydone,however,for
eachofthesub-componentsofGDPcomponents.
272
Asmentionedabove,fortheyears1980-1986,CNE86providessplicedseriesderivedfrominterpolating
CNE86andCNE80.
273
Unfortunately,nationalaccountsexplanatorynotesdonotaddressthisissue.
114
Figure23presentstheratiobetweenthefiguresfornominalGDPobtainedby
splicingnationalaccountsthrough‘hybrid’linearinterpolationandthosederivedthrough
extrapolation.Itcanbeobservedhowtheover-exaggerationofGDPlevelsderived
throughretropolationcumulatesasonegoesbackintime,reachingaroundone-fifthby
thelate-1950s.
Figure23.RatiobetweenHybridLinearlyInterpolatedandRetropolatedNominalGDPSeries,1958-2000
Sources:Seethetext.
OnceGDPseriesatcurrentpriceswereobtained,thenexttaskwastodeflatethem
inordertoobtainGDPvolumeindices.DeflatorsforeachCNEbenchmarkGDPserieswere
alsosplicedthrough‘hybrid’linearinterpolationaswellasthroughretropolation.
Interestingly,deflatorsderivedthroughalternativesplicingmethodsdonotexhibitthefar
fromnegligibledifferencesobservedforcurrentvalues.
Figure24presentstheevolutionofGDPatconstantprices,expressedinlogform,
usingalternativelytheinterpolatedandretropolatedseriesover1958-2000.Itcanbe
115
observedthattheirdifferentialwidenssignificantlyovertimesuggestinglowerlevelsand
fastergrowthforGDPestimatesderivedthroughinterpolation.274
Figure24RealGDP,1958-2000(2010Euro)(logs):AlternativeEstimateswithHybridLinearInterpolationand
RetropolationSplicing(logs)
Sources:Seethetext.
Table15
RealGDPGrowth:AlternativeSplicing,1958-2010
(annualaveragerates%)
hybridlinear
interpolation
retropolation
1958-1964
5.9
6.2
1964-1970
6.4
6.2
1970-1980
4.9
3.7
1980-1986
1.9
1.5
1986-1995
3.7
3.2
1995-2000
4.1
4.0
2000-2010
2.2
2.2
Table15comparestheresultingGDPgrowthratesbetweenNationalAccounts
benchmarkyearsderivedbysplicingnationalaccountsalternativelywith‘hybrid’linear
274
Thefollowingdiscussionappliestoallestimatesderivedthroughtheretropolationapproach,including
Urieletal.(2000)andMaluquerdeMotes(2008a,2016),whoerroneouslyusestheCPIasanalternativeto
theGDPimplicitdeflator.SeemydiscussionofMaluquerdeMotesestimates(PradosdelaEscosura,2009).
116
interpolationandretropolationapproaches.GDPestimatesderivedthroughthe
interpolationprocedurecasthighergrowthratesovertheentiretimespanconsidered
thanthoseestimatesresultingfromtheconventionalretropolationmethod.Theannual
cumulativerateperpersonover1958-2000is4.5percentcomparedtoa4.0percentfor
theretropolatedseries,respectively.Themaindiscrepanciescorrespondtoperiod19701995,andparticularlyduringthe1970s,inwhichtheinterpolatedseriesexhibitamore
thanone-thirdfastergrowthrate.Theimplicationisthat,intheperiodofrapidexpansion
1958-1974,Spain’sdelayedGoldenAge,and,again,betweenSpain’saccessiontothe
EuropeanUnion(1985)andtheeveoftheGreatRecession(2007),theinterpolatedseries
grewfasterthattheretropolatedones.However,itisduringtheso-called‘transitionto
democracy’period(1974-1984),whenthepositivegrowthdifferentialbetweenthe
interpolatedandtheretropolatedseriesreacheditspeak,(2.3and1.3percent,
respectively).Asaresult,thedecelerationfollowingtheexceptionalgrowthofSpain’s
delayedGoldenAgewaslessdramaticthansuggestedbyconventionalnarrative.Itis
worthcomparingtheresultstoanotheralternativetotheretropolationprocedure
providedbythe‘mixedsplicing’,inwhichÁngeldelaFuente(2014,2016)proposesan
intermediatepositioninwhichaninitialerrorintheoldseries,stemmingfromthe
insufficientcoverageofemergingeconomicsectors,growsatanincreasingrate.
Unfortunately,thecorrectiontothegrowthrateoftheoriginalseriesimpliesanarbitrary
assumptionaboutitssize(SeethediscussioninPradosdelaEscosura,2016b).
SincedelaFuente(2016)favoursGrossValueAdded(GVA,equivalenttoGDPat
basicprices)thecomparisoniscarriedoutintermsofrealGVA(Figure25).Itcanbe
observedthattheresultsfrom‘mixedsplicing’arenotfarapartfromthoseIobtained
throughhybridlinearinterpolation.Discrepanciesonlyappearinthepre-1980periodfor
whichdelaFuente(2016)linkedhisseriestoUrieletal.(2000)GDPseriessplicedthrough
retropolation.
117
Figure25RealGrossValueAdded,1958-2015(2010Euro)(logs):AlternativeEstimateswithHybridLinear
InterpolationandMixedSplicing,1958-2015.
Sources:HybridLinearInterpolation,seethetext;MixedSplicing,delaFuente(2016).
118
VII.POPULATION,1850-2015
Spain’sStatisticalOffice(InstitutoNacionaldeEstadística,INE)providesyearly
seriesof‘resident’populationfrom1971.INEalsopresentsannualseriesof‘defacto’
populationfor1900-1991,inwhichfiguresforcensusbenchmarkyearsarelinearly
interpolated.RoserNicolau(2005)collectedandcompletedtheseriesbackto1858.More
recently,JordiMaluquerdeMotes(2008b)hasconstructedyearlyestimatesof‘defacto’
populationfor1850-1991andsplicedthemwith‘resident’populationfor2001.Inorderto
doso,MaluquerdeMotesstartedfromcensusfiguresatthebeginningofeachcensus
yearaddingupannuallythenaturalincreaseinpopulation(thatis,birthslessdeaths)plus
netmigration(namely,immigrantslessemigrants).IhavefollowedMaluquerdeMotes’s
approachwithsomemodifications.Thus,Ihaveacceptedcensusbenchmarkyears’figures
andGustavSündbarg(1908)estimatefor1850,andobtainedthenaturalincreasein
populationwithNicolau(2005)figuresforbirthsanddeathsfrom1858onwards,
completedfor1850-1857withSündbarg(1908)netestimatesatdecadalaveragesequally
distributed.275MymaindeparturefromMaluquerdeMotesapproachhasbeenwith
regardstonetmigrationforwhichIhaveacceptedBlancaSánchez-Alonso(1995)
estimatesfor1882-1930,completedbackto1850andforthto1935withstatistical
evidencefromSpanishandmaindestinationcountries’sources(seesectionIV.3.4).For
theyearsoftheCivilWar(1936-1939)anditsaftermath(1940-1944)IhaveacceptedJosé
AntonioOrtegaandJavierSilvestre(2006)grossemigrationestimatesfor1936-1939,
assumingnoimmigrationduringthewaryears,anddistributingevenlyanupwardrevision
oftheirreturnmigrationestimatesfor1940-1944,whileassumingnogrossemigration
duringWorldWarII.276Inordertoobtainaconsistentseriesfor1850-1970Ihavespliced
populationestimateslinearlybydistributingthedifferencebetweentheestimated
275
Sündbarg(1908)estimatesarereproducedinMaluquerdeMotes(2008b:145).Ihaveusedtheaverage
birthanddeathratesin1858-1860fortheyears1850-1857,exceptinthecaseof1855-1856forwhichthe
deathrate(45per1000)estimatedfor1855asaconsequenceofcholeraepidemicsbyPérezMoreda(1980:
398)hasbeenused.Ihavealsousedtheaverageofbirthanddeathratesin1870and1878-1880forthe
years1871-1877inwhichdataontotalbirthsanddeathsaremissing.
276
OrtegaandSilvestre(2006)considerthe162,000netmigrationfigureduring1940-1944grossly
underestimated.PérezMoreda(1988:418)reckonedamaximumpermanentexileofnonmorethan
190,000people,afigurebelowthe200,000providedbyTusell(1999)andmuchlowerthanapost-CivilWar
exileestimate(300,000)(Tamames,1973).IhaveacceptedPérezMoreda’sconjecture.
119
populationobtainedbyforwardprojectionoftheinitialcensusbenchmarkfigureforthe
yearofthenextcensusbenchmark,andtheobservedfigureatthenewcensususing
expression(16).LastlyIhavelinkedthelinearlyinterpolatedseriesfor‘defacto’
populationfor1850-1970withthe‘resident’populationseriesfrom1971onwardstoget
asingleseries.277Fortunately,thedifferencebetweenthe‘defacto’and‘resident’series
over1971-1991isnegligible.278
277
Choosing‘resident’over‘defacto’populationallowsmetokeepconsistencywithSpanishofficial
nationalaccounts,whichemploy‘resident’population.
278
Theaverageratiobetweentheresidentanddefactopopulationover1971-1991is0.9956witha
coefficientofvariationof0.0048.
120
VIII.EMPLOYMENT,1850-2015
Thelatestroundofnationalaccounts(CNE10)providesdataonthenumberoffulltimeequivalent(FTE)workersandhoursworkedanditsdistributionbyindustryfrom
1995to2015.Unfortunately,nosimilardataareprovidedinearlierroundsofnational
accountsthatpresentonlyfiguresforthenumberofoccupiedbackto1980(CNE80and
CNE86).However,the1995-basedquarterlynationalaccounts(CNTR95)providedataon
FTEworkersfor1980-1995.Ihave,then,splicedthetwosetsofFTEworkersthrough
linearinterpolationtogetconsistentestimatesover1980-2015.279
Forthepre-1980years,GarcíaPereaandGómez(1994)provideestimatesof
employmentbackto1964thatcanbepushedfurtherbackto1954withtherateof
variationofemploymentprovidedinearliernationalaccounts(CNE64)(Institutode
EstudiosFiscales,1969:33-34).IhaveassumedthatthenumberofFTEworkersevolved
alongsideemploymentand,thus,projectedits1980levelbackwardsto1954withthe
employmentrateofvariationtoderiveFTEemploymentseriesfortheperiod1954-2015
fortheeconomyasawholeanditsmaineconomicsectors.
Thenextchallengewastolinkthepost-1954serieswiththehistoricalevidenceback
to1850.Thus,onthebasisofpopulationcensusesIconstructedyearlyemployment
estimatesfor1850-1954forthefourmainsectors:agriculture,forestry,andfishing;industry,
mining,andutilities;construction;andservices.MajorshortcomingsappearinSpanish
censusdata:workingpopulationisonlyavailableatbenchmarkyearsandreferstothe
economicallyactivepopulation[EAN,thereafter],withnoregardofinvoluntary
unemployment.280Moreover,censusestendtoonlyrecordoneactivityperperson,that
whichindividualsconsiderbeingtheirprincipalactivity,andthistendstobe‘farmer’.
However,inadevelopingsocietythedivisionoflabourislowandasinglepersonmight
279
TheCN10/CNTR95ratiointheoverlappingyear,1995,is1.02fortotalFTEworkersand0.99,0.93,1.00,
and1.04forfull-timeequivalentworkersemployedinagriculture,industry,construction,andservices,
respectively.SeeSectionVI.1and,inparticular,expression(16)forthelinearinterpolationprocedureused.
280
Nevertheless,inapredominantlyagriculturaleconomysuchasthatofSpainuptothe1950s,modern
unemploymentinthemodernsenseofthewordwasquitereduced,saveduringexceptionalcrises.Still,
therewasalotofseasonalaswellashiddenunemploymentintheagriculturalsector(labourhoarding)
(PérezMoreda,1999:57).
121
undertakevariousworktasksoverthecourseofayear.281Henceforth,activities
correspondingtotheindustrialand,particularly,servicesectorsendupbeing
underestimatedinpopulationcensuses.282Inaddition,figuresforfemaleEANinagriculture
seemtobeinconsistentovertime.283Therefore,Ihavebeenforcedtomakesomechoices.
Forexample,inordertoderiveconsistentfiguresovertimeforEANinagriculture,I
excludedthecensusfiguresforfemalepopulation,whileassumedthatfemalelabor
representedastableproportionofmalelaborforceinagricultureand,hence,increased
thenumberofdaysassignedtoeachmaleworker(seebelow).284Moreover,astheshare
ofEANinagricultureissuspiciouslystableover1797-1910,inspiteofindustrializationand
urbanization,IcorrecteditbyassumingthattheagriculturalshareofEANmovedalong,
andcouldnotexceed,theproportionofruralpopulation(livingintownswithlessthan
5,000inhabitants)intotalpopulation.285Thus,Iadjusteddownwardsthepercentageof
EANemployedinagriculturebetween1887and1920byredistributing‘excess’agricultural
281
Moreover,astheopportunitycostofallocatingagriculturallabourtoalternativeoccupationsduringthe
slackseasonwasminimal,peasantscarriedoutadditionalnon-agriculturalactivities,suchasproducingtheir
ownimplements,clothingandprovidingservicessuchastransportationandstoring,andworkingin
constructionindustry.
282
Thetimeofyearinwhichcensusdatawascollectedwillalsoaffecttheverydefinitionofone’s
occupation.If,forexample,acensusisconductedduringtheharvestseason,resultsforagricultural
employmentincludeallthosepersonstemporarilyemployedinagriculture,despitethefactthattheir
principaloccupationduringtherestoftheyearmaybeinaseparatesector.
283
FemalelabourwasnotincludedinagriculturalEANinthe1797and1860populationcensusesand
representedasmallanddecliningproportionofmalelabour,thereafter.Thus,female/maleratiosin
agriculturalEANwere,accordingtopopulationcensusesaround0.2over1877-1900andrangedbetween
0.05and0.1duringthefirsthalfoftwentiethcentury(Nicolau,2005).
284
TheexclusionoffemalesworkinginagriculturefromthetotalworkingpopulationisusualinSpanish
historicalliterature(Nicolau,2005;ErdozáinandMikelarena,1999;PérezMoreda,1999:55).Carréetal.
(1975:89)followedasimilarstrategytooneproposedherefortheFrenchcase.
285
Pre-1930figuresforruralpopulationcomefromGómezMendozaandLunaRodrigo(1986)andEANfrom
PérezMoreda(1999),for1860and1877,andNicolau(2005),thereafter.Noteveryonelivinginrural
districtsworkedinagriculture,assomeproportion,howeversmallitmightbe,musthavebeenemployedin
theprovisionofservicesandprocessedgoods.Itisoftenallegedthat,atleastinthesouthoftheIberian
peninsula,therewereagglomerationsoffairlyexpansivepopulationsthathadnourbancharacteristicsuntil
themid-1900s,astheirinhabitantscontinuedtocarryoutagriculturaltasks.However,inthesepopulation
centresasignificantportionoftheworkingpopulationprovidedservicesandnon-agriculturalgoodstothe
restoftheinhabitants.Thus,Ihavemadethereasonableconjecturethatthosepersonsemployedin
agriculturebutlivinginurbancentreswouldtendtobalanceoutwiththepopulationofindustrialand
service-sectorworkerslivinginruralpopulationcenters.Moreover,asincomelevelsincrease,boththerural
populationandtheoverallpopulationofagriculturalworkerswilldecrease,althoughthelatterdoessoata
fasterrate,astherealwaysexistssomepartofthepopulationthatoptstoliveinthecountrysidedespitenot
beingemployedprimarilyineitheragricultureortheraisingoflivestock(PradosdelaEscosura,2007a).
122
workersproportionallybetweenindustry,construction,andservices.286Thenextstepwas
toobtainyearlyEANfiguresthroughlog-linearinterpolationofbenchmarkobservations.
Sincetheresultingestimatesdonotcaptureyearlyfluctuationsineconomicallyactive
population,apartialsolutionhasbeen,firstly,tocomputeEANshareinworkingage
population(WAN)andWANshareintotalpopulation(N),beingWANandNcomputed
throughlinearinterpolation(i)betweenpopulationcensuses.287Then,theseratioshave
beenmultipliedbythenewyearlypopulationestimates(N)toderiveannualfiguresof
economicallyactivepopulation(EAP).Thus,
EAP=(EAPi/WANi)(WANi/Ni)N(25)
Later,inordertoadjustfordifferencesinlabourintensityacrossmaineconomic
sectorsandobtainacrudemeasureoffull-timeequivalentworkerbyindustry,thedataon
EAPwasconvertedintodaysworkedperyear.Iassumedthateachfull-timeworkerwas
employed270daysperannuminindustry,construction,andservices.Suchfigureresults
fromdeductingSundaysandreligiousholidaysplusanallowanceforillness.This
assumptionisinlinewithcontemporarytestimoniesandsupportedbytheavailable
evidence.288Inagriculture,however,contemporaryandhistorians’estimatespointtoa
lowerfigurefortheworkingdaysperoccupied,asfullemploymentamongpeasantsonly
occurredduringthesummerand,consequently,workerswereidleforuptofourmonths
everyyear.Itcanbeassumedthattheworkingloadperyearfortheaveragemaleworker
inagriculturewouldrange,atmost,between210and240days.289However,inorderto
makefortheexclusionoffemaleemploymentinagriculture(duetotheabsenceof
286
Thus,thepercentageshareofagricultureinEANfor1887(65.3),1900(66.3),1910(66.0)and1920(57.2)
became62.7,60.75,58.0,and54.5percent,respectively.OriginalsharescomefromNicolau(2005).
287
Yearlyestimatesofpopulationaged15-64for1858-1960werederivedthroughinterpolationbetween
agecohortsatcensusbenchmarksbyDavidReher,whokindlysupplythemtome.Iextendedtheestimates
backto1850.
288
SotoCarmona(1989:608)pointedoutthat,onaverage,thenumberofdaysworkedperoccupiedupto
1919rangedbetween240and270.Vandellós(1925)reckonedthat,in1914,theaveragenumberofdays
workedperyearinminingwas250.
289
GómezMendoza(1982:101)emphasizedtheseasonalnatureoflatenineteenthcenturyemployment
andestimatedthat,onaverage,afarmlabourerworked210daysoutof275-300workingdaysperyear.
ThisfigureisnotfarfromBairoch(1965)estimateof196daysfornineteenth-centuryEurope.Simpson
(1992b)obtainedevenalowerfigure(108to130daysperworker-year)fromlabourrequirementsin
Andalusia’sagriculturebetween1886and1930.GarcíaSanz(1979-80:63)providedahigherfigure,242
daysperyear,fordaylabourersinmid-nineteenthcenturySpain.
123
consistentdata),Iincreasedthenumberofdaysassignedtomaleworkersemployedin
agriculturetomatchthefigureusedfortherestofeconomicsectors(270).290
Lastly,figuresforfull-timeequivalentemploymentbyeconomicsectorfor18501953werederivedbyassumingthattheiryearlychangesmirroredthoseineconomically
activepopulationand,thus,FTEemploymentestimatesfor1954werebackwards
projectedwiththoseforeconomicallyactivepopulation(EAN).TotalFTEemploymentfor
1850-1954resultedfromaddingupfiguresforsectoralestimates.Itisworthnotingthat,
in1954,theratiobetweenFTEemploymentandEANforeacheconomicsectoris1.003
(agriculture),0.872(industry),1.095(construction),and1.069(services),and1.000,for
theaggregate.Theimplication,inthecaseofagriculture,isthat,theupperboundfigure
formaleemployment(resultingfromanattempttomakeformissingfemalelabour
figures)matchesthatoffull-timeequivalenttotalemployment(includingfemalework).
ThefinalstephasbeentoderivehoursworkedinwhichIdrawonPradosdela
EscosuraandRosés(2010b:526).Formid-nineteenthcenturyagriculture,Caballero
(1864)estimated10hoursperdayandasimilaraveragefigure,9.7hours,wasfoundfor
themid-1950s.291Thus,Iaccepted10hoursperdayfor1850-1911,interpolatedthesetwo
figuresover1912-1935,andretained9.7hoursfortheperiod1936-1954.Forindustryand
services,IinterpolatedHuberman’s(2005)figuresfor1870-1899toderiveannualhours
worked,andthenumberofhoursworkedin1870wasacceptedfor1850-1869.Iadopted
Domenech’s(2007)estimatesfordifferentindustriesandservicesin1910for1900-1910,
andSilvestre’s(2003)annualcomputationsforindustryfor1911-1919.Asregardthe
interwaryears,SotoCarmona(1989:596-613)providessomeconstructionandservices
figures.Dataonhoursworkedfortheearly1950sareoftenclosetothoseof1919.I
acceptedthenumberofworkinghoursperoccupiedin1954fortheyears1936-53,and
interpolatedthefiguresfor1919and1936.Forthepost-1954period,hoursworkedfor
eachbranchofeconomicactivityderivefromSanchis(privatecommunication)forthe
290
Theimplicationisthattheassumedfemale/maleratio,inequivalentworkeffort,wouldrangebetween
0.125and0.286,dependingonwhethermaleemployeesinagricultureareassumedtowork240or210days
peryear,respectively.
291
Thefigureforthe1950swasobtainedbydividingthefigureforyearlyhours,whichwaskindlyprovided
byTeresaSanchis(privatecommunication),bythenumberofworkingdaysperyear.
124
1950s,MaluquerdeMotesandLlonch(2005)for1958-1963,MinisteriodeTrabajo(196478)for1964-1978,andOECD(2006)for1979-1994.From1995onwards,thelatestround
ofnationalaccounts(CNE10)providesannualfiguresofhoursworked.Theresulting
estimatesshowthattheamountoftotalhoursworkedincreasedmoderately,
multipliplyingby2.1overthe166yearsconsidered,butfallingshortoftheincreasein
population,thatmultipliedby3.1.
125
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Appendix1.FinalOutputandGrossValueAddedinAgriculture,1850-1958
TableA1.1
RatiosofFinalOutputtoTotalProductionforMainCrops
Wheat
Upto1929
1929-1950s
1960-1964
0.860
0.860
0.929
Barley
0.344
0.255
0.255
Oats
0.200
0.200
0.200
Rye
0.774
0.722
0.464
Maize
0.570
0.470 0.155
Rice
0.990
0.990
0.992
Chickpeas
0.870
0.870
0.874
BroadBeans
0.430
0.430
0.347
Beans
0.890
0.890
0.852
Potatoes
0.765
0.765
0.896
SugarBeet
0.970
0.970
0.970
a
a
Note: 0.37inthe1950s.
Sources:Simpson(1994);Federico(1992);MinisteriodeAgricultura(1979b).
TableA.2
ConversionCoefficientsAppliedtoLivestockNumberstoDeriveMeat,Wool
andMilkOutput,1891-1924
Meat(dressedcarcass)
(Kilogramsperlivestockunita)
Cattle
Sheep
1865
1891/1924
22.226
37.090
2.432
3.675
Goat
11.327
3.626
Pigs
43.681
51.550
Horse
6.360
ab
Wool(greasy )
1.660
1.660
Milk(lessanimalconsumption)
c
(litresperlivestockunit )
175 Cow
Sheep
4.196
363
3.660
Goat
77.07
63.70
a
Notes. kilogramsperunitoftotallivestock(notjustslaughteredlivestock).1865.Theshareoflivestock
slaughteredcomesfromGarcíaSanz(1994),butforcattleforwhichthesharehasbenraisedfrom6.36%,
thefigureprovidedbyGarcíaSanz,to11.36%inordertoincludeslaughteredyounganimals.Such
proportionisobtainedasfollows,inthe1933cattlecensus,adultanimalsslaughteredrepresented15,68%
ofitstotal.However,accordingtoSimpson(1994),whenyounganimalsareconsidered,thepercentage
144
increasesto28%.Asimilarcorrectionfor1865wouldresultin11.36%oflivestockslaughtered
[28*6.36/15.68=11.36].Lackofinformationledmetoacceptdressedcarcassweightsfor1920fromFlores
deLemus(1926),38.472kgporlivestockunitand3.753kgpersheepandgoatunit.1891/1924.Forsheep
andpigs,coefficientsprovidedbySimpson(1994)andComín(1985a)wereapplied.Simpson(1994)
assumes,followingthe1929Census,that37.5%ofsheepand59.6%ofpigswereslaughteredannually.
Comín(1985a)providesdressedcarcassweightperunit,9.8kgpersheepand86.5kgperpig.Forcattleand
goatstotaldressedcarcassweight/livestocknumberratiosfor1925-1935wereacceptedwhilefor
horsemeatitwasthe1950ratio,allfromMinisteriodeAgricultura(1979a).If,alternatively,Simpson(1994)
approach,whichassumesthat28%and38.3%ofcattleandgoatsweresacrifiedeachyear,wereused,and
averagedressedcarcassweightof137.4kgand9.8kg,respectively,fromComín(1985a)wereapplied,the
resultingconversioncoefficientswouldbeslightlyhigherthanthoseadoptedhere.
b
Simpson(1994),Comín(1985a),Carreras(1983),andPradosdelaEscosura(1983)acceptthisfigure.
Alternatively,Parejo(1989)suggests2kg.
c
litresperunitoftotallivestock(notperfemales).1865.Heaplicadolosrendimientosqueproporciona
Simpson(1994)yields,700litrespermilkingcow-year,beingmilking45%ofallcowsthat,inturn,
represented59%oftotalcattle.Ihaveadjustedthisfigure(186litrespercattleunit)downwardswiththe
ratiobetweenmilkproductiondeeivedbymeandbySimpsonfor1891/1924(363/387).Inthecasesof
sheepandgoat,femalerepresented69,5%and73,4%ofthetotal,respectively,andIhaveacceptedthe
milkingfemale/totalfemaleratiofor1929/33.1891-1924.1925-1935averagemilk/livestockunitratioswere
acceptedfromMinisteriodeAgricultura(1979a).Simpson(1994)estimatesfor1929/33areveryclose.For
cows,Simpsonassumedthatfemalesrepresented75%ofcattle,fromwhich45%weremilked,yielding
1,146litresperheadperyear.Forsheepthecorrespondingfigureswere62.7%,23.4%,and25.8litresand
forgoats,65.2%,60%,and175litres.
Sources:Carreras(1983);Comín(1985a);Simpson(1994);MinisteriodeAgricultura(1979a).
TableA.3
CoverageoftheSampleofProductsIncludedintheAnnualIndexforEach
AgriculturalGroupatBenchmarks(%)(currentprices)
a
Cereals b
Pulses c
Vegetables -
d
RawMaterials e
Fruits&nuts Wine(must)
c.1890
c.1900
1909/13
1929/3
31950
1960/64
99.05
99.25
99.50
99.38
99.83
99.79
94.22
93.80
92.87
90.18
90.91
87.61
35.83
41.79
52.23
51.40
43.67
70.30
70.60
81.91
84.53
94.90
41.70
44.63
48.30
61.20
68.14
69.15
69.34
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
Oliveoil 98.44
98.42
95.34
98.03
79.88
95.30
Meat Poultry&eggs -
h
Milk&honey TOTAL
92.87
92.87
92.87
92.89
98.98
94.70
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
98.32
98.30
98.28
98.40
f
g
-
98.30
98.30
77.48
79.88
86.40
86.13
86.50
b
c
Notes: wheat,barley,rye,oats,maize,rice; chickpeas,broadbeans,beans; potatoes,onions.
d
sugarbeet,sugarcane,wool,silkcocoons,cotton(since1950),tobacco(since1950);
e
almonds,oranges,carobs,apples,chestnuts,lemons,bananas(onlyalmondsandorangesbefore1910).
f
oliveoil,noolivesandsubproductsincluded;gbeef&veal,lamb&mouton,goat,pork,
h
horsemeat(since1950); milkonly.
Sources:Seethetext.
a
145
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