FIELD ORNITHOLOGY Wednesday Nov 26 2003 09:33 AM Allen Press • DTPro System GALLEY 67 forn 75_108 Mp_67 File # 08TQ J. Field Ornithol. 75(1):67–73, 2004 Variability in roost size in an Amazona parrot: implications for roost monitoring Stacey Cougill and Stuart J. Marsden1 Applied Ecology Group, Department of Environmental and Geographical Sciences, the Manchester Metropolitan University, Chester Street, Manchester M1 5GD United Kingdom Received 3 July 2002; accepted 6 March 2003 ABSTRACT. Roost counts may be a useful method for assessing and monitoring parrot populations as long as counting regimes can detect real differences in abundance above the noise of daily variability in roost size. We studied a roost of up to 85 Red-tailed Amazons (Amazona brasiliensis) for 28 consecutive mornings and evenings from 12 July to 7 August 2001, and recorded bird behavior and associated weather data. The roost declined significantly over the survey period as the breeding season drew nearer. There was no significant difference between evening and morning roost counts, but we suggest that as long as misty mornings are avoided, morning roost counts were more effective as birds left more quickly and predictably. It took longer for birds to arrive on evenings when the roost was large, but birds left quicker in the morning when there were large numbers in the roost. Weather influenced both roost size and timing of arrival, with larger than expected numbers in the roost, and birds arriving later in the afternoons of sunny, warm days. We tested the reliability of four roost counting regimes: counts from five consecutive nights, five counts, one every fourth night, five nights picked at random, and 10 randomly picked nights. Counts from every fourth day performed significantly worse than all the other regimes in estimating the mean numbers in the roost. The 10-d random sampling regime performed significantly better than the 5-d regime in detecting very large roosts which occurred occasionally through the month. SINOPSIS. Variabilidad en el tamaño de los dormideros de una Amazona: implicaciones para el monitoreo de dormideros El conteo de aves en dormideros puedo ser un método útil para monotorear poblaciones de cotorras, siempre y cuando el régimen de conteo pueda detectar diferencias reales en abundancia entre la variabilidad diaria del tamaño del dormidero. Estudiamos por 28 dias consecutivos, en la manana y en la tarde, un dormidero de la cotorra Amazona brasiliensis. El estudio se llevó a cabo del 12 de julio al 7 de agosto de 2001. Además de contar las aves se tomaron datos sobre su conducta y las condiciones del tiempo. El dormidero se redujo significativamente según se fue acercando el periodo reproductivo de las aves. No se encontró diferencia significativa entre los conteos matutinos y los de la tarde. Sin embargo sugerimos, se eviten las mañanas con niebla. Los conteos de la mañana resultan más efectivos que los de la tarde, ya que las aves dejan el lugar más rápida y predeciblemente. Le tomó a las aves más tiempo el llegar en las tardes cuando el dormidero era bien grande, pero bajo estas condiciones las aves dejaron el lugar más rapidamente en la mañana. Las condiciones del tiempo afectaron tanto el tamaño del dormidero como el tiempo de llegada, con un mayor número de aves que las esperadas y llegando más trade en dias cálidos y tardes soleadas. Estudiamos la confiabilidad de conteos con muestras de cinco noches consecutivas, cinco conteos hechos cada cuatro dias, cinco noches tomadas al azar, y diez noches tomadas al azar. Los conteos hechos cada cuatro dias fueron significativamente peores en estimar el número promedio de aves en el dormidero que los otros tipos de muestreos. El muestreo cada 10 dias al azar, arrojó, significativamente, mejores resultados que el régimen de cada cinco dias para detectar aves en dormideros grandes (que se formaron ocasionalmente a lo largo del mes). Key words: Amazona brasiliensis, Atlantic forest, Brazil, movements, roost Counting individuals as they enter/leave roosts has been used in many assessments of parrot population sizes (e.g., Gnam and Burchsted 1991; Martuscelli 1995) and may have potential for long-term monitoring of populations of some species (Wermundsen 1998; Snyder et al. 2000). The method may be especially useful where bird densities during the 1 Corresponding author. Email: s.marsden@mmu. ac.uk 67 day are very low (Marsden 1999; Pithon and Dytham 1999) but where roosts are discrete and stable (Martuscelli 1995; Snyder et al. 2000). Few systematic studies of roosting in parrots have been published and, recognizing the potential of the methods, Casagrande and Beissinger (1997) recommended the further development of roost-survey protocol. To accurately and precisely gauge roost sizes, a number of factors need to considered, including reliability of individual counts (e.g., observer bias), time of year, and the intrinsic variability in the FIELD ORNITHOLOGY Wednesday Nov 26 2003 09:33 AM Allen Press • DTPro System 68 GALLEY 68 S. Cougill and S. J. Marsden numbers of birds that enter the roost each evening (e.g., Gnam and Burchsted 1991; Casagrande and Beissinger 1997; Harms and Eberhard 2003). For effective year-by-year monitoring, the ‘‘unwanted’’ variability in roost numbers caused by all factors other than a real change in the population needs to be controlled for. We studied a roost of the endangered Redtailed Amazon (Amazona brasiliensis) on Ilha do Cardoso, southeast Brazil, for 28 consecutive mornings and evenings from 12 July to 7 August 2001, using a standard method. Our aim was to examine daily variability in numbers recorded entering/leaving the roost, to identify factors that might affect this variability, and to assess the performance of different counting regimes in accurately reflecting the true numbers of birds in the roost. METHODS The roost. The study was carried out at the Parque Estudual da Ilha do Cardoso (258039S 478539W; 22,500 ha), off the south coast of São Paulo state, Brazil. The roost is adjacent to the ecological station in the northeast of the island, in a small clump of trees on raised ground within a mosaic of sand-plain forest, coastal dune, and mangrove habitat between the coast and a tidal creek (the roost is inaccessible by foot). Amazona brasiliensis is the only parrot known from this roost, which has been used for several years (M. Galetti, pers. comm.). The roost, as with other roosts of the species, seems to be active principally during the non-breeding season, with pairs splitting from the main group at the end of August. According to Martuscelli (1995), breeding pairs usually sleep in the nest hollow, leading to fewer birds visiting the roost as the breeding season gets underway and then perhaps no birds roosting communally, although where non-breeding birds roost is not known. On Cardoso, the roost is inactive in March (M. Galetti, pers. comm.) and possibly other months, although no definitive data are available. Field methods. Surveys were conducted from a vantage point (a raised bridge) situated 250 m from the roost and allowing a full view of parrot flight paths to and from the roost. All surveys were conducted by SC after one week of practice. Morning observations commenced forn 75_108 Mp_68 File # 08TQ J. Field Ornithol. Winter 2004 just before dawn (around 06:30) and continued until the last bird had left the roost. Evening surveys commenced at 15:00 and continued until just after dusk (around 18:00). A major flight path for the birds is adjacent to the research station and is lit up at night, and no parrots were observed to arrive after dark during the week-long pilot study. For each recording of parrots entering or leaving the roost, their time of detection, the direction of flight, group size, and whether they were heard calling were recorded. One problem with roost counts, especially those from the evenings, is that birds can move around the roost and often repeatedly enter and leave the roost (Snyder et al. 1987). To combat this problem a ‘‘roost zone’’ was delineated around the roost trees. The zone was a circle of radius equal to approximately 50 m around the epicenter of the roost. All bird movements, both into and out of this area, were recorded. Birds leaving the roost zone were subtracted from the number of birds counted entering the roost zone so as not to double-count groups. Binoculars (10 3 50) were used to identify birds, although the vantage point was close enough to the roost to count the number of birds accurately without them. Maximum daily temperature (8C), total daily incoming solar radiation absorbed (J/m), and total daily precipitation (mm) were downloaded from the weather station situated ,100 m from the observation point. In addition, every two hours, (between 08:00 and 18:00) on each day of the survey, SC recorded the presence or absence of mist. Data analysis. Variables were examined for normality using Kolmogorov-Smirnov tests. Where the distribution of values differed significantly from normality (P , 0.05), nonparametric tests were used. Differences between counts of birds entering the roost in the evening and those of birds leaving the following morning were tested using a paired t-test. The higher of the evening or morning count for a particular night was used as the roost count for that night in subsequent analyses. Differences in the frequencies of group sizes between birds arriving at the roost and those leaving were examined using a chi-square test. Differences in the time it took for all birds to arrive at the roost, and to leave the following morning, were tested using a Wilcoxon signed-ranks test. Relationships between roost parameters were test- FIELD ORNITHOLOGY Wednesday Nov 26 2003 09:33 AM Allen Press • DTPro System GALLEY 69 Parrot Roost Surveys Vol. 75, No. 1 ed with Pearson’s product-moment correlation, except when relating roost parameters to the weather data where the nonparametric Spearman rank correlation was used. To examine daily variability in roost numbers and to test for reliability of roost counting regimes, we first had to control for changes in roost size through the study period. Overall roost numbers declined through the month, so we controlled for this decline by regressing roost number on day number. We had no apriori assumption that roost number should decline in a linear fashion, so we tested the fit of a series of curves including linear, quadratic, cubic, and power functions, and picked the model with best fit. We saved the residuals from this regression as these indicate whether more (positive residual) or fewer (negative residual) birds than expected for a given day were actually in the roost (a residual of zero indicates that the roost was the size expected for a given day). We tested the performance of four counting regimes. The roost counts were again the residual values after the decline in roost count throughout the study period had been accounted for. The regimes were ‘‘five consecutive days,’’ a rolling average of counts from five sequential days counts (e.g., days 1–5, 2–6, etc.); ‘‘every fourth day,’’ groups of five counts from every fourth day (e.g., days 1, 5, 9, 13, 17; 2, 6, 10, 14, 18, etc.); ‘‘random five days,’’ roost counts from five days selected randomly from the survey period; and ‘‘random 10 days,’’ roost counts from ten days selected randomly from the survey period. This allowed 23 counts for the ‘‘five consecutive day’’ regime and 11 counts for the ‘‘every fourth day’’ count regime. We generated 40 runs for each of the random regimes. Differences in standard errors between counting regimes were tested with ANOVA with Bonferroni posthoc tests. Differences in mean roost count residuals and maximum counts were tested using Kruskal-Wallis tests with Dunn’s posthoc tests (e.g., Wheater and Cook 2000). RESULTS Changes in roost size over time. As the month progressed, fewer birds entered the roost (Fig. 1). The falloff in bird numbers with day number best fitted a cubic function (r2 5 0.48, F3,23 5 7.05, P 5 0.0016). forn 75_108 Mp_69 File # 08TQ 69 Fig. 1. Changes in Red-tailed Amazon roost count (higher of the evening or morning counts) over the survey period. Differences between evening and morning roost counts. There was no significant difference between the evening and morning counts (paired t-test: t26 5 0.28, P 5 0.78). There was a significant difference in the deviations between the morning and afternoon counts (regardless of whether the morning or afternoon count was larger) between the first and second halves of the month (day 1–14, mean difference, 23.1 6 17.2 SD; day 15–28, mean difference, 5.9 6 7.4; t25 5 3.4, P 5 0.003). There was a significant positive relationship between the deviations of the morning and evening counts and the total roost count (r 5 0.63, P , 0.001), showing that on days when more birds entered the roost, there were larger discrepancies between morning and evening counts. Roost counts tended to be lower than those of the previous afternoon when mist was present in the morning (mean difference, 24.2), than on clear mornings (mean difference, 113.0), although the difference was not quite significant (t24 5 1.9, P 5 0.08). There was a significant difference in the frequencies of group sizes between morning and afternoon (x26 5 30.2, P , 0.001). The main differences were that, in the evenings, there were more pairs and fewer singles and groups .6 entering the roost than there were leaving the roost in the mornings (Table 1). Timing of movements to and away from the roost. There was considerable betweenday variability in the timing of birds entering/ FIELD ORNITHOLOGY Wednesday Nov 26 2003 09:33 AM Allen Press • DTPro System 70 forn 75_108 Mp_70 File # 08TQ GALLEY 70 J. Field Ornithol. Winter 2004 S. Cougill and S. J. Marsden Table 1. Frequency and percentage of encounters of group sizes of Red-tailed Amazons entering/leaving the roost. Group size 1 2 3 4 5 6 .6 Max. group size Entering roost 55 361 36 15 19 7 15 16 11% 71% 7% 3% 4% 1% 3% Leaving roost 63 252 25 17 7 8 41 36 15% 61% 6% 4% 2% 2% 10% leaving the roost (Fig. 2). Birds took longer to arrive at the roost in the evenings (mean, 65 min 6 26 SD) than they did to leave the roost the following mornings (mean, 13 min 6 6.1; Z 5 4.5, P , 0.001). For the evenings, there was a significant positive correlation between the time it took to arrive and the total number of parrots in the roost (r 5 0.52, P 5 0.005), indicating that the larger the total number in the roost, the longer it took them to arrive. In the mornings, however, the total number of parrots in the roost was negatively correlated with the amount of time it took birds to arrive (r 5 20.43, P 5 0.02), indicating that when there were a large number of parrots in the roost, the parrots left the roost more quickly. Measures of the timing of arrival of birds in the evenings were significantly correlated with the amount of absorbed solar radiation, and to a lesser extent, maximum temperature, during that day (Table 2). On sunny, warm days, birds generally arrived later in the afternoons than on cooler, sunless days. There were no significant relationships between time of arrival and precipitation. Fig. 2. Timing of Red-tailed Amazons entering/ leaving the roost (minutes after dawn/before dusk). Influence of weather on roost size. High values of residual roost counts were positively correlated with total radiation absorbed (rs 5 0.42, P 5 0.03). Roost counts tended to be lower on days with high, or at least some precipitation but the relationship was not significant (rs 5 20.32, P 5 0.10). There was no relationship between roost count and maximum temperature (rs 5 20.08, P 5 0.70). Test of different counting regimes. Standard errors for the three 5-d regimes were similar, but the average SE was significantly lower in the 10-d sample than the 5-d random Table 2. Spearman rank correlation coefficients between the timing of parrot arrival at the roost and weather variables. First in, Last in, and 50% in, are the number of minutes before dusk that the first bird, the last bird, and 50% of those in the roost had arrived. First in Last in 50% in Max. temp. Radiation Last in 50% in 10.41* 10.78** 10.56** * P , 0.05, ** P , 0.005. Maximum temperature 20.46* 20.16 20.47* Radiation Precipitation 20.45* 20.52** 20.66** 10.39* 10.33 10.28 10.35 10.16 20.44* FIELD ORNITHOLOGY Wednesday Nov 26 2003 09:33 AM Allen Press • DTPro System forn 75_108 Mp_71 File # 08TQ GALLEY 71 Parrot Roost Surveys Vol. 75, No. 1 71 Table 3. Roost count residuals for the four counting regimes. Values shown are mean deviations from the expected roost count (where a mean of zero equals the expected mean), standard errors, and mean maximum roost count (the average of the highest total recorded on any of the 5/10 d). N 5 number of runs for each regime. Model A. Five consecutive days N 5 23 B. Every fourth day N 5 11 C. Random five days N 5 40 D. Random ten days N 5 40 A vs. B vs. C vs. D Post-hoc tests a b Mean roost count residual 2.1 6.2 3.1 2.9 H3a 5 15.3, P 5 0.002 B . A, B . C, B .D Mean SE 4.9 4.2 4.7 3.3 F3,110b 5 9.4, P , 0.001 A . D, C . D Mean of maximum count 112.2 111.4 111.6 116.3 H3a 5 15.3, P 5 0.002 D.C Kruskal-Wallis tests with Dunn’s posthoc tests. ANOVA with Bonferroni posthoc tests. sample and the sample from every fourth day (Table 3). In terms of counting accuracy (deviations from the means), counts from every fourth day were significantly less precise than the other three models. Counts from five consecutive days were actually more precise than the 10-d random model, although the difference was not significant. Maximum counts also differed between models, and this time the 10d random model was significantly better at picking up large roosts than the 5-d random model. DISCUSSION Despite considerable daily variability in numbers of birds entering the roost, we were able to detect a decline in roost size through the study. Red-tailed Amazons are known to begin breeding in September (Martuscelli 1995), and our data suggest that some birds abandoned the central roost as the breeding season drew nearer. Studies of other parrots have found marked seasonal changes in roost sizes (e.g., Renton 2002), with perhaps a proportion of birds roosting in their nest holes prior to breeding (Martuscelli 1995). In terms of accurate roost counting, we stress that surveys should take place at the same time of year each season or across sites, that survey periods should be carefully selected because breeding seasons themselves can vary between years or sites (e.g., Forshaw 1989), and that the roost may diminish quite gradually over time towards the breeding season. While we could detect no consistent difference between evening and morning counts, we suggest that morning roost counts may be more reliable than evening counts, as long as mornings with poor visibility due to mist are avoided. Birds left the roost more quickly than they arrived in the evening; the latest that all birds had left the roost was 55 min after dawn. The timing of arrival in the evenings was significantly influenced by weather conditions, with birds arriving up to three hours before dusk on cloudy days. In the mornings, birds left the roost more predictably, and there was little of the movement in and out of the roost seen in the evenings (Mabb 1997). The stimuli for most movements around the roost in the evening were unidentified, although perceived predators, such as the Chimango Caracara (Milvago chimachima), were a major cause of roost disturbance (e.g., Mabb 1997; Pithon and Dytham 1999). One potential disadvantage of morning counts at larger roosts can be that birds leave more quickly. This may make counting individuals difficult, especially if they leave in very large groups. We were able to account for some of the variability in size of nightly roosts in terms of weather the previous day. Roost counts were lower on sunless days (and perhaps also on wet days), and it may be that a proportion of birds staying away from the roost spent the night in their nest cavities (birds at the roost slept on branches rather than in cavities). There are energetic benefits to birds roosting in cavities (e.g., du Plessis et al. 1994), and this may be a FIELD ORNITHOLOGY Wednesday Nov 26 2003 09:33 AM Allen Press • DTPro System 72 forn 75_108 Mp_72 File # 08TQ GALLEY 72 S. Cougill and S. J. Marsden mechanism by which birds can reduce energy expenditure during ‘‘winter’’ nights on Cardoso, which can be cold and windy. Alternatively, there may be other roosts on the island or in other areas where birds form temporary roosts, and it could that there is a high degree of fluidity in roost position and membership (e.g., Marzluff et al. 1996; Pithon and Dytham 1999; Berg 2001). Whatever its causes, the daily variability in roost numbers recorded during our study means that caution is needed when interpreting roost counts made over just one or a few nights. The average difference between the roost counts on consecutive nights in this study was almost 25% (of the higher count), and on one occasion the roosts on two consecutive nights differed by 60% (28 vs. 70 individuals). To detect real changes in population size using just one or two roost counts is clearly unrealistic. Our test of different counting regimes suggested that a random selection of dates over the month or counts over successive days performed significantly better at estimating the mean number of birds in the roost than did returning to count the roost periodically. Why periodic counts (counting the roost every four days) should result in high deviance from expected roost count values is unclear. It could be that there is some periodicity in roost numbers, with roosts building up every few days to a maximum and then reducing. What is clear is that a sequence of 10 d of counts performed significantly better than 5 d of counts at detecting the very large numbers of individuals that entered the roost on just a few dates in the month. Whether these ‘‘occasional’’ birds are seen as a target for monitoring may depend on the aim of the study, but if they are, then a prolonged survey period is needed to detect them. Unless the locations of all roosts, or the ‘‘catchment area’’ for each roost is known, counts like ours cannot of course yield estimates of total population, only estimates of individual roost size. How appropriate counts from a single roost might be will depend on the amount of movement between roosts of individuals from the local population. In our study, the nearest adjacent roost used by Red-tailed Amazons was over 8 km away. Consequently, we assumed relatively low rates of day-to-day movements between the established roosts in J. Field Ornithol. Winter 2004 our study. The same cannot be said for other parrot species; for example, the Green-rumped Parrotlet (Forpus passerinus) shows extensive between-day movement among roosts (Casagrande and Beissinger 1997). Ideally, roost monitoring should be done at a time of year when roosts are stable and birds most sedentary. We have little data on roosting patterns in parrots in general, and additional research is needed. While inapplicable for some groups and some situations (Gilardi and Munn 1998), roost counting can be a useful tool in the monitoring of some seriously threatened parrot taxa such as Amazona and Ara (Pitter and Christiansen 1995). The magnitude of population change in a roost that we might detect may be in the region of 20% over 3–5 yrs, a decline that would qualify a taxon for ‘‘Vulnerable’’ status according to the IUCN Red List classification (BirdLife International 2000). In our study, series of counts over 5 and 10 nights deviated on average around four and two individuals from the expected (around 8% and 4% of the population actually present). In terms of average roost size, 5–10 nights of counts seem adequate to express the ‘‘average’’ roost size, at least for this roost in this particular month, with counts over 10 d being consistently more precise. Short study periods will be unsuccessful at picking up unusually large roosts, and if a maximum roost count is the target, then many nights of roost counting are needed. While daily and seasonal variability in roost size, and the unpredictability of roost membership, will confound attempts to accurately or precisely monitor parrot roosts, the repeated counting of a sample of stable roosts across years may be a useful tool in warning of possible population declines in rare species. ACKNOWLEDGMENTS Permission to conduct research on Ilha do Cardoso, logistical help, and accommodation was provided by Marcos Campolin. We are grateful to Mauro Galetti for hosting the project at UNESP. For support on Cardoso, we thank Emma Edwards and Sr. Romeu. This project was funded by the North of England Zoological Society (NEZS). We thank Roger Wilkinson for various kinds of help. LITERATURE CITED BERG, K. S. 2001. Notes on the natural history of the Pale-mandibled Aracari. Journal of Field Ornithology 72: 258–266. FIELD ORNITHOLOGY Wednesday Nov 26 2003 09:33 AM Allen Press • DTPro System Vol. 75, No. 1 GALLEY 73 Parrot Roost Surveys BIRDLIFE INTERNATIONAL. 2000. 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