THE FOOD PRODUCTS SEGMENT The Segment Defined The food segment consists of producers and processors of food, food ingredients, and mixes packaged for human or animal consumption. Food categories designated by the Department of Commerce include: meat products, dairy products, fruits and vegetables, grain mill products, such as cereals, dog and cat food, prepared feed (incl. feed and seed), flour and other grain products, rice milling, and wet corn milling, bakery products, sugar and confectionery products, fats and oils, salad dressings and salsas, a variety of miscellaneous products including canned, cured, and frozen fish, roasted coffee, potato chips and similar snack food, macaroni and spaghetti, and food preparations, n.e.c. Food Segment Projections Portend Moderate Increase for 2006 U.S. food packagers as a group are expected to spend approximately $2.334 billion for packaging machinery in 2006, roughly +2.5 percent more (the mid-point projection of a +2% to +3% increase) than in 2005. As shown in Figure F-1, the moderate outlook follows four consecutive years of incrementally positive growth forecasts. It is worth noting that the 2006 outlook is founded on a very favorable industry backdrop that currently includes: • Strong pressure to innovate and stand-out among competitors on store shelves • Average plant capacity utilization rates hovering at levels that typically suggest the need for expansion. The pie-chart of Figure F-2 shows that while 34 percent of the sample’s companies plan to spend more for packaging machinery this year than in 2005, just as many (34%) plan to spend less. And Figure F-3, which further details the increase-decrease ratios by company size, shows noticeably positive spreads for both the smallest and largest plant size classes, but with negative spreads dominating the two mid-size groupings. But Higher Spending Possible In acknowledgement of the likely potential for capital spending budgets to change, respondents were asked to assess the possibility for revisions in their spending plans as the year progresses. The first question asked them to rate on a scale of 1 to 10 their packaging machinery budget’s susceptibility to adjustment – either up or down – in response to 82 changing economic and/or market factors. A rating of 1 means that they feel their budget is ‘set in stone’ and a rating of 10 means that it is ‘very susceptible to change’. As shown in Figure F-4, 36 percent of the respondents rated their budgets at ‘1’, or ‘set in stone’ while the remaining 64 percent left at least some room for change with ratings between ‘2’ and ‘10’. Roughly one out of three respondents (34%) assessed their budget between moderately changeable to very changeable, as indicated by a rating between ‘6’ and ‘10’. Next, respondents were asked: “If the budget were to be adjusted, which direction would you FIGURE F-1 HISTORICAL PROJECTED GROWTH OF U.S. DOMESTIC SPENDING FOR PACKAGING MACHINERY BY THE FOOD PRODUCTS SEGMENT ACCORDING TO THE PMMI PURCHASING PLANS STUDIES 1998 – 2006 (Percent Range of Projected Annual Growth) 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% High Point of Range 2% % Change 0% Low Point of Range -2% -4% 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 Source: PMMI 83 FIGURE F-2 PERCENT OF THE FOOD PRODUCTS SEGMENT SAMPLE PROJECTING AN INCREASE, DECREASE, AND NO CHANGE IN PACKAGING MACHINERY EXPENDITURES COMPARISON 2006 VERSUS 2005 (Based on Conditions Existing as of January & February 2006) Will Increase Spending 34% Will Reduce Spending 34% Will Spend About the Same 32% Source: PMMI expect it to likely go – up, down, or is either direction equally possible?” The findings, presented in the pie-chart of Figure F-5, clearly suggest that most budgetary adjustments made during the year would likely push spending higher than currently projected. While the majority of respondents (56%) said any revisions to their spending plans would most likely be upward, just 16 percent reported a downward bias, and 28 percent indicated it is equally possible for an adjustment in either direction. 84 FIGURE F-3 PERCENT OF THE FOOD SEGMENT SAMPLE PROJECTING AN INCREASE, DECREASE, AND NO CHANGE IN PACKAGING MACHINERY EXPENDITURES 2006 VS 2005 COMPARISON BY COMPANIES' EMPLOYEE PLANT SIZE (Based on Conditions Existing as of January & February 2006) 100% 90% 19% 30% 37% 80% Plan Decrease for 2006 47% 70% 60% Plan No Change for 2006 38% 28% 50% Plan Increase for 2006 29% 40% 30% 20% 47% 43% 42% 34% 10% 6% 0% Less than 100 Employees 100-499 Employees 500-999 Employees Source: PMMI 85 1000+ Employees FIGURE F-4 THE FOOD SEGMENT SAMPLE’S RATINGS REGARDING SUSCEPTIBILITY OF THEIR 2006 PACKAGING MACHINERY BUDGETS TO CHANGE FROM CURRENTLY PROJECTED LEVELS (Respondents rated their budget’s ‘susceptibility to change’ on a scale from 1 to 10 with 1 meaning the budget is ‘set in stone’ and 10 meaning it is ‘very changeable’) 50% 45% 40% 36% 35% 34% 30% 30% % of Responses 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 1 2 to 5 Ratings Source: PMMI 86 6 to 10 FIGURE F-5 THE SAMPLE'S ASSESSMENT: IF THEIR CURRENT 2006 PACKAGING MACHINERY BUDGET WERE ALTERED, WOULD THE REVISION MOST LIKELY BE HIGHER OR LOWER? (Based on Conditions Existing as of January/February 2006) More Likely Would Be Revised Higher 56% Equal Chance It Could Go Either Way 28% More Likely Would Be Revised Lower 16% Source: PMMI Reasons for Ordering Machinery in 2006 As shown in Figure F-6, the most widely stated reason among U.S. food packagers for purchasing packaging machinery in 2006 is to improve efficiency and/or productivity on existing packaging lines. But other reasons registered significant mentions as well, including the need to add capacity, to reduce labor and maintenance costs, and to accommodate new packaging designs or styles. 87 Reasons for Reducing Spending in 2006 As revealed earlier, just over a third of the food segment’s companies plan a decrease in packaging machinery spending for 2006 (versus 2005). The primary reasons for the cutbacks, as cited by the respondents, are presented in Figure F-7. Three of the most commonly indicated are, in many instances, related to one another. Thirty-five percent said their existing equipment is adequate for their current needs, 33 percent indicated they will cut-back this year because they spent heavily in 2005, and 30 percent simply attributed lower planned expenditures to budget cuts. Trends to Watch in 2006 While the respondents’ comments provide fairly general insight into their current budgetary considerations, the following underlying market trends will likely exert an impact on demand throughout the year. FIGURE F-6 THE UNDERLYING REASONS FOR ORDERING PACKAGING MACHINERY IN 2006 BY THE FOOD SEGMENT (For Respondents Who Indicated They Will Order Packaging Machinery in 2006) Building New Plant(s) 3% 23% Accommodate New Product Lines/New Package Designs 57% Improve Efficiency/Prod. of Existing Packaging Ops. Improve Ergonomics/Worker Safety 7% Add Flexibility/Reduce Downtime 9% 29% Reduce Labor/Maintenance Costs 34% Adding Capacity to Existing Packaging Operations 0% 10% Source: PMMI 88 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% FIGURE F-7 THE UNDERLYING REASONS FOR REDUCING SPENDING ON PACKAGING MACHINERY IN 2006 BY THE FOOD SEGMENT (Of the Respondents That Indicated They Will Reduce Spending in 2006) Plant Closing/Consolidation 6% Other Priorities 11% Budget Cuts 30% Existing Machinery is Adequate 35% Made Major Purchases in 2005 33% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% Source: PMMI Factors Supporting Spending for Packaging Machinery A. Plant capacity utilization to remain high According to U.S. government statistics, U.S. food processing plants as a whole have been running at above 83 percent capacity levels since November of 2005, well above the 79-80 percent range for overall U.S. manufacturing plants during the same period. As indicated in Figure F-6, roughly a third of the sample’s food companies will buy packaging machinery this year to add capacity to their packaging operations. B. Expect further targeting of niche consumer markets through packaging Food companies remain steadfast in their drive to create customized options via packaging sizes, shapes, designs, convenience features, etc. that target select groups of consumers. Food product packagers are increasingly seeking machines with greater flexibility to handle varying packaging requirements and are establishing more packaging lines to 89 accommodate distinctly different packaging styles. Notably, 23 percent of the study’s food segment respondents mentioned new package design requirements and/or new product lines as a significant reason for buying packaging machinery in 2006. C. Ongoing shift to flexible packaging to remain a major demand driver The use of flexible pouches will continue to rapidly expand throughout most areas of the food industry forcing many food companies to either upgrade or add pouch packaging capabilities. D. Look for further emphasis on food product packaging innovation To fight for and defend shelf space in ultra competitive retail environments, food companies will remain active in their development and introductions of new, leading edge products and packaging. E. Continued emphasis to be placed on improving packaging efficiency As confirmed by the data presented in Figure F-6, food packagers are remaining intent on gaining efficiencies in plant operations via increased automation and new machinery technology as a means to combat competitive pressure and rising manufacturing costs. F. Shifting consumer health trends to remain in play The food industry is quickly scrambling to introduce new and modified products geared to emerging health trends that include organic foods and whole grain foods in particular. Factors Limiting Packaging Machinery Spending A. Expect high energy and raw materials costs to further impact buying decisions B. Continued trend toward more plant closings and industry consolidation While mergers and acquisitions have slowed among food processors compared with the past several years, instances of plant closings and product line divestitures will continue to negatively impact machinery demand. 90 C. Impact of heavy spending in 2005 The Food Segment Sample Interviews were conducted with 158 respondents from virtually all sectors of the food industry. Sixteen of the 158 represented corporate or division headquarters, in which case their answers dealt with machinery decisions for the organization’s entire packaging operations. The data derived from the sample covered 403 of the market segment’s plants. It is significant to note that 78.8 percent of the respondents, or a qualified replacement at that location, took part in last year’s study as well. 91 THE BEVERAGE PRODUCTS SEGMENT The Segment Defined The beverage segment consists of producers, processors, bottlers, and packagers of beverages for human consumption. Categories include: malt beverages (beer and ale); malt; wines, brandy, and brandy spirits; distilled and blended liquors; bottled and canned soft drinks; juices; bottled water; and flavoring extracts and syrups intended as beverage ingredients. FIGURE B-1 HISTORICAL PROJECTED GROWTH OF U.S. DOMESTIC SPENDING FOR PACKAGING MACHINERY BY THE BEVERAGE PRODUCTS SEGMENT ACCORDING TO THE PMMI PURCHASING PLANS STUDIES 1998 – 2006 (Percent Range of Projected Annual Growth) 18% 16% 14% 12% 10% High Point of Range 8% 6% 4% Low Point of Range 2% % Change 0% -2% -4% -6% -8% 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 Source: PMMI 92 Fourth Consecutive Year of Spending Growth Expected for 2006 U.S. beverage plants are preparing to ramp up spending for packaging machinery in 2006 by +6-8 percent to roughly $1.094 billion (the +7 percent mid-point projection of the +6%-8% rise over their 2005 expenditures). The increase, while more moderate than the double-digit jump of 2005, represents the fourth in as many years (Figure B-1). Moreover, the pie-chart of Figure B-2, which presents a graphic breakdown comparing the number of respondents forecasting higher spending in 2006 versus those predicting a decline, reinforces the positive outlook. Ironically, the 40% increase, 24% decrease, 36% no-change ratio actually represents an improvement over the 35% - 26% -37% breakdown recorded in 2005. FIGURE B-2 PERCENT OF THE BEVERAGE SEGMENT SAMPLE PROJECTING AN INCREASE, DECREASE, AND NO CHANGE IN PACKAGING MACHINERY EXPENDITURES COMPARISON 2006 VERSUS 2005 (Based on Conditions as of January/February 2006) Will Spend About the Same 36% Will Increase Spending 40% Will Reduce Spending 24% Source: PMMI 93 An examination of the increase-decrease data by plant size – determined by number of employees – is presented in Figure B-3. The more detailed analysis reveals that all the respondents reporting intentions to reduce spending for 2006 are from the two smaller size categories, while the largest size plant category (greater than 1000 employees) contains the highest rate of planned increases – 50 percent. FIGURE B-3 PERCENT OF THE BEVERAGE SEGMENT SAMPLE PROJECTING AN INCREASE, DECREASE, AND NO CHANGE IN PACKAGING MACHINERY EXPENDITURES 2006 VS 2005 COMPARISON BY COMPANIES' EMPLOYEE PLANT SIZE (Percent Range of Projected Annual Growth) 100% 0% 0% 90% 30% Plan Decrease for 2006 35% 80% 50% Plan No Change for 2006 70% 67% 60% Plan Increase for 2006 25% 50% 35% 40% 30% 50% 45% 20% 33% 30% 10% 0% Less than 100 Employees 100-499 Employees 500-999 Employees Source: PMMI 94 1000+ Employees Likelihood of Adjustments to Budget Plans After providing an estimate of their 2006 packaging machinery spending plans, each respondent was asked a pair of questions dealing with the potential for changes in their projections as the year progresses. The first asked them to rate on a scale of 1 to 10 their packaging machinery budget’s susceptibility to adjustment – either up or down – in response to changing economic and/or market factors. A rating of 1 meant that they feel their budget is ‘set in stone’ and a rating of 10 meant that it is ‘very susceptible to change’. As Figure B-4 illustrates, over two-thirds of respondents indicated their budgets are at least somewhat vulnerable to adjustment as a result of market developments (rating between 2 and10), while FIGURE B-4 THE BEVERAGE SEGMENT SAMPLE’S RATINGS REGARDING SUSCEPTIBILITY OF THEIR 2006 PACKAGING MACHINERY BUDGETS TO CHANGE FROM CURRENTLY PROJECTED LEVELS (Respondents rated their budget’s ‘susceptibility to change’ on a scale from 1 to 10 with 1 meaning the budget is ‘set in stone’ and 10 meaning it is ‘very changeable’) 70% 60% 50% 43% 40% 32% % of Responses 30% 25% 20% 10% 0% 1 2 to 5 Ratings Source: PMMI 95 6 to 10 FIGURE B-5 THE SAMPLE'S ASSESSMENT: IF THEIR CURRENT 2006 PACKAGING MACHINERY BUDGETS WERE ALTERED, WOULD THE REVISION MOST LIKELY BE HIGHER OR LOWER? (Based on Conditions Existing as of January/February 2006) More Likely Would Be Revised Higher 43% Equal Chance It Could Go Either Way 37% More Likely Would Be Revised Lower 20% Source: PMMI 32 percent could not foresee any changes being made to their current spending plans (rating of 1). Most notably, however; 43 percent rated their budgets between ‘6’ and ‘10’, or ‘moderately’ to ‘very’ susceptible to modification. Next, respondents were asked: “If the budget were to be adjusted, which direction you would expect it to likely go – up, down, or is either direction equally possible?” The findings, shown in Figure B-5, favor upward revisions over cut-backs; 43 percent of respondents said spending would more likely be revised higher, 37 percent said no bias exists in either direction, and 20 percent felt a downward adjustment is more probable. 96 FIGURE B-6 THE UNDERLYING REASONS FOR ORDERING PACKAGING MACHINERY IN 2006 BY THE BEVERAGE SEGMENT (For Respondents Who Indicated They Will Order Packaging Machinery in 2006) Accommodate New Product Lines/New Package Designs 16% Improve Efficiency/Prod. of Existing Packaging Ops. 87% Improve Ergonomics/Worker Safety 11% 20% Add Flexibility/Reduce Downtime 49% Reduce Labor/Maintenance Costs Adding Capacity to Existing Packaging Operations Source: PMMI 38% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% Reasons for Ordering Machinery in 2006 Figure B-6 provides a breakdown of the reasons beverage product companies will order packaging machinery this year according to the sample. Indicative of the push by many of the segment’s companies to improve the bottom line in the face of a highly competitive market environment, most respondents (87%) mentioned the improvement of packaging line efficiency and/or productivity as a major goal of their planned purchases, and nearly half (49%) pointed to the reduction of labor and/or maintenance costs. On the other hand, a significant number (38%) said they need new machinery to expand the capacity of their packaging operations, while 16 percent more specifically connected the planned expenditures to their need to accommodate new products or new packaging applications. Reasons for Lower Spending in 2006 Nearly one-quarter (24%) of the beverage sample’s respondents indicated their plant(s) will spend less on packaging machinery this year than in 2005. As shown in Figure B-7, more than three-quarters linked their expected cut-backs to either heavy spending last year (39%) 97 100% FIGURE B-7 THE UNDERLYING REASONS FOR REDUCING SPENDING ON PACKAGING MACHINERY IN 2006 BY THE BEVERAGE SEGMENT (Of the RespondentsWho Indicated They Will Reduce Spending in 2006) Spending More on Other Areas of Plant 7% Limited Capital Available/Budget Cuts 15% Existing Machinery is Adequate 39% Made Major Purchases in 2005 39% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% Source: PMMI or more simply to the fact that adequate machinery is already in place to handle their current packaging requirements (39%). Another 15 percent associated the reduction with budget cuts, and seven percent said projects unrelated to packaging are taking precedence this year. Trends to Watch in 2006 While the respondents’ comments provide fairly general insight into their current budgetary considerations, the following underlying market trends merit monitoring throughout the year. Factors Supporting Spending for Packaging Machinery A. Customers will continue to seek productivity/efficiency improvements As supported by the study’s findings presented in Figure B-6, the vast majority of the respondents reporting an increase in spending for packaging machinery in 2006 are seeking to 98 improve the efficiency and/or productivity of their packaging operations. In order to satisfy their bottom lines in an increasingly competitive marketplace, many beverage plants are adding machinery with faster speeds, greater flexibility, more advanced capabilities, or simply more reliability to gain packaging line productivity. B. Look for a steady stream of new product introductions According to statistics from Productscan Online, beverage product SKUs increased by +25.9 percent in 2005 versus 2004. That trend likely will continue into 2006 as beverage producers continue to introduce a wide array of different products and container styles in an effort to capture the business of more finely segmented consumer groups. C. Further increase in energy drink popularity Demand for energy drinks surged in 2005, and many beverage producers – including giants such as Coca-Cola and Pepsi – have joined the fray to capitalize on a consumer trend that analysts expect will remain vibrant for quite a while. D. Demand for bottled water to remain strong While the bottled water market is deluged with competing brands and its producers continue to search for more pricing power, demand continues to be solid. Consumers continue to flock to bottled water as a healthier alternative to carbonated soft drinks and manufacturers seeking to benefit from the trend will continue to offer a growing variety of flavored and vitamin/mineral fortified options. E. Expect further increase in packaging flexibility requirements Beverage product producers continue to seek greater packaging line flexibility to handle shorter runs of an increasing variety of package sizes and styles. Specific requirements from major customers to provide unique bottle sizes or case and carton configurations, combined with increasing consumer demand for more convenience, is forcing beverage companies to develop more nimble packaging operations. F. Demand for wines to remain robust Partly at the expense of beer sales, North American consumers are turning more to wines for their alcoholic beverage consumption. A growing perception among younger adults that wine does not have to be expensive or intimidating, combined with a concerted effort by winemakers to market their product at 99 affordable price points, with vibrant labels, and fun packaging, has led to its greater popularity. Factors Limiting Spending for Packaging Machinery A. Recent Heavy Spending As indicated in Figure B-7, many of the respondents (39%) reported a cut-back in spending this year because their respective firms invested heavily in packaging machinery in 2005. Moreover, an additional 39 percent simply stated that their existing machinery is adequate for their current packaging needs, which is also emblematic of heavy prior spending. B. Weak beer market Prospects for brewers in North America have dimmed in response to shifting consumer trends away from beer to other alcoholic beverages such as wines and liquors. Sales and profits at many beer companies have declined or remained flat as a result. C. Slower sales of carbonated soft drinks Partly reflecting health trends and partly a result of greater excitement generated by energy drinks, sports drinks, and various fruit drinks, carbonated soft drink sales are suffering. According to Beverage Digest/Maxwell, U.S. carbonated soft drink sales declined for the first time in at least two decades in 2005. Even diet sodas, which have been somewhat of a bright spot for the category in recent years, showed weakness in 2005. The Beverages Segment Sample Fifty-four (54) respondents representing various sectors of the beverage industry were interviewed in connection with this study. Of the total sample, one respondent was located at corporate or division headquarters and answered for all of their organizations’ domestic plant operations. The data provided by the sample covered the packaging decisions and buying patterns of 161 U.S. establishments. Of last year’s respondents, 68.5 percent participated in this year’s study as well. 100 THE PHARMACEUTICALS AND MEDICAL DEVICES MARKET SEGMENT The Segment Defined Manufacturers of commercial- and consumer-packaged prescription and over-the-counter pharmaceutical products, as well as medical devices. The pharmaceuticals producers fall within SIC 283 – Drugs, which includes: medicinals and botanicals, pharmaceutical preparations, diagnostic substances, and biological products except diagnostic. The medical devices group is classified in SIC 384 – Medical Instruments and Supplies, which largely contains: surgical and medical instruments, surgical appliances and supplies, and dental equipment and supplies. Modest Up-tick in Spending Planned for 2006 U.S. manufacturers of packaged pharmaceutical and medical products – as a group – are expected to increase their level of spending for packaging machinery by approximately +1-3 percent in 2006 to an estimated $736 million (the +2% mid-point of +1%-3% projection) (Figure P/M-1). While the industry’s current expenditure plans represent a clear down shift in momentum from the double-digit (+11-13%) increase of the prior year, the outlook nevertheless remains positive. The favorable assessment derives both from secondary information attesting to the continued strength of the pharmaceutical/medical products market as a growth entity and from data generated by the sample’s respondents. With respect to the latter, 43 percent of this year’s sample are expected to ratchet up their spending for machinery in 2006 (Figure P/M-2), which ironically is a higher proportion than the 41 percent recorded at the same time in 2005. But detracting from the increase-decrease ratio is the fact that 35 percent in 2006 have indicated plans for lower expenditures compared with only 24 percent that did so in 2005. In effect, more companies appear adequately equipped to handle their current packaging requirements as a result of having spent heavily last year or are merely unable to stage a repeat of the growth recorded in the prior year. That said, however, one might bear in mind that despite the growth slowdown in 2006, the projected value of machinery expenditures – pegged at $736 million – remains quite high in nominal terms. 101 FIGURE P/M-1 HISTORICAL PROJECTED GROWTH OF U.S. DOMESTIC SPENDING FOR PACKAGING MACHINERY BY THE PHARMACEUTICAL/MEDICAL PRODUCTS SEGMENT ACCORDING TO THE PMMI PURCHASING PLANS STUDIES 1998 – 2006 (Percent Range of Projected Annual Growth) 18 16 14 12 10 8 High Point of Range 6 4 Low Point of Range 2 % Change 0 -2 -4 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 Source: PMMI 102 FIGURE P/M-2 PERCENT OF THE PHARMACEUTICAL/MEDICAL PRODUCTS SEGMENT SAMPLE PROJECTING AN INCREASE, DECREASE, AND NO CHANGE IN PACKAGING MACHINERY EXPENDITURES COMPARISON 2006 VERSUS 2005 (Based on Conditions Existing as of January/February 2006) Will Reduce Spending 35% Will Increase Spending 43% Will Spend About the Same 22% Source: PMMI Figure P/M-3 further dissects the data by plant size (as determined by number of employees). The most visible pattern that emerges from that breakdown is the high concentration of ‘no changes’ projected for the largest plants (and/or headquarters operations) in contrast to the very low percentage of smaller plants that expect to remain on par with last year’s spending level. It is also worth noting that the increase-decrease ratio for the smallest plants is the only one lacking a positive spread – at 50% up versus 50% down. However, heavy spending in 2005 is the likely reason, since that group’s ratio last year was easily the most favorable of the four. 103 FIGURE P/M-3 PERCENT OF PHARMACEUTICAL/MEDICAL DEVICE SEGMENT SAMPLE PROJECTING AN INCREASE, DECREASE, AND NO CHANGE IN PACKAGING MACHINERY EXPENDITURES 2006 VS 2005 COMPARISON BY EMPLOYEE PLANT SIZE (Based on Conditions As of Jan/Feb 2006) 100% 90% 25% 80% 25% 43% 50% 70% Project Decrease for 2006 25% 60% 44% 9% 50% 40% Project No Change for 2006 Project Increase for 2006 30% 50% 50% 48% 20% 31% 10% 0% Less than 100 Employees 100 to 499 Employees 500 to 999 Employees 1000+ Employees Source: PMMI Potential for More Spending In recognition of the limitations inherent in early-year budget projections each respondent was asked a pair of follow-up questions dealing with the potential for any changes in their projections as the year progresses. The first asked them to rate on a scale of 1 to 10 their packaging machinery budget’s susceptibility to adjustment – either up or down – in response to changing economic and/or market developments. A rating of 1 means they feel their budget is ‘set in stone’ and a rating of 10 means ‘very susceptible to change’. 104 FIGURE P/M-4 THE PHARMACEUTICAL/MEDICAL SEGMENT SAMPLE’S RATINGS REGARDING SUSCEPTIBILITY OF THEIR 2006 PACKAGING MACHINERY BUDGETS TO CHANGE FROM CURRENTLY PROJECTED LEVELS (Respondents rated their budget’s ‘susceptibility to change’ on a scale from 1 to 10 with 1 meaning the budget is ‘set in stone’ and 10 meaning it is ‘very changeable’) 50% 45% 45% 40% 35% 31% 30% % of Responses 25% 24% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 1 2 to 5 6 to 10 Ratings The results, shown in Figure P/M-4, reveal that approximately one quarter of the respondents characterized their spending budget as ‘set in stone’, while the remaining three quarters reported at least some chance for adjustment. Moreover, nearly a third (31%) pegged it closer to ‘very changeable’ than to ‘set in stone’. As a follow-up, they were asked: “If the budget were to be adjusted, which direction would you expect it to go – up, down or equally likely in either direction?” 105 The pie-chart of Figure P/M-5 shows that the majority (53%) said spending plans would more likely be revised higher while just 22 percent said lower. The remaining 25 percent reported the same possibility for an increase as for a decrease. The most widely cited reasons for budgets to be revised higher include: to replace machinery that breaks down unexpectedly, and to increase production for new products that do well in the marketplace. Conversely, the most commonly cited reasons for budgets to be cut-back include: if the economy and/or market demand declines, and because of internal changes at our company. FIGURE P/M-5 THE SAMPLE'S ASSESSMENT: IF THEIR CURRENT 2006 PACKAGING MACHINERY BUDGETS WERE ALTERED, WOULD THE REVISION MOST LIKELY BE HIGHER OR LOWER? (Based on Conditions Existing as of January/February 2006) More Likely Would Be Revised Higher 53% Equal Chance It Could Go Either Way 25% More Likely Would Be Revised Lower 22% Source: PMMI 106 Reasons for Ordering Packaging Machinery in 2006 Of the respondents who indicated plans to purchase packaging machinery in 2006, nearly all (98%) cited the need to increase production on their existing packaging lines as a key reason for the planned capital investment, while 43 percent linked their spending plans to requirements associated with new products and/or new packaging designs (Figure P/M-6). Please note that most respondents offered more than one reason for ordering machinery this year; hence, the total of percentages exceeds 100 percent. Among other commonly cited answers, 40 percent indicated a need to reduce labor and/or maintenance costs, 12 percent are seeking added flexibility and/or less downtime associated with changeovers, 12 percent reported a goal of keeping up with technology, and 10 percent are looking to improve ergonomics and/or worker safety. Reasons for Reducing Spending in 2006 As revealed earlier, 35 percent of the sample’s respondents indicated they will spend less on packaging machinery this year than in 2005. As shown in Figure P/M-7, 39 percent of those respondents said they will do so because their existing machinery is adequate, while 33 percent specifically pointed out that they spent heavily last year and are therefore either adequately equipped or simply unable to spend as much this year. Among other important mentions: 12 percent said general budget cuts are a key factor and 12 percent indicated that plant closings and/or consolidations are playing a role. While the respondents’ comments provide fairly general insight into their current budgetary considerations, the following specific market trends merit monitoring throughout the year. Factors to Watch in 2006 A. Pharmaceutical and medical device manufacturers will remain active in the adoption of new packaging designs/styles. Issues surrounding packaging costs, product protection, tamper evidence, ease-of-use, shelf-visibility, labeling content, and product tracking are causing drug and medical device makers to be active in their pursuit of new packaging designs and styles for their products. In particular, flexible options such as pouches and tubes continue to proliferate in conjunction with advancing material and design 107 technologies. According to this study’s findings, 37 percent of the respondents indicated that in 2006 their plant(s) will change or modify some aspect of the packaging used for their existing product(s), and 36 percent reported that in 2006 their plant(s) will add new products requiring different packaging than is used for their existing products. FIGURE P/M-6 THE UNDERLYING REASONS FOR ORDERING PACKAGING MACHINERY IN 2006 BY THE PHARMACEUTICAL/MEDICAL PRODUCTS SEGMENT (For Respondents Who Indicated They Will Order Packaging Machinery in 2006) Accommodate New Product Lines/New Package Designs 43% 12% Add New Technology Improve Ergonomics/Worker Safety 10% Add Flexibility/Reduce Downtime 12% Reduce Labor/Maintenance Costs 40% Increase Production – Existing Packaging Lines 98% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Source: PMMI B. Generic drug makers are expected to continue to generate solid growth as several name brand drug patents are set to expire in coming years. C. Drug Sales are predicted to grow by +7.7 percent in 2006 according to The Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services. D. The outlook for biotech companies will remain strong as their drug pipelines continue to grow; moreover, they remain safe from generics for now. 108 FIGURE P/M-8 THE UNDERLYING REASONS FOR REDUCING SPENDING ON PACKAGING MACHINERY IN 2006 BY THE PHARMACEUTICAL/MEDICAL PRODUCTS SEGMENT (Of the Respondents Who Indicated They Will Reduce Spending in 2006) Other Priorities Taking Precedence 12% Plant Closing/Consolidation 12% Budget Cuts 12% Existing Machinery is Adequate 39% Made Major Purchases in 2005 33% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% Source: PMMI E. Higher demand expected for OTC self-care options such as home diagnostic kits and therapeutic products The aging population and technological advances continue to support the proliferation of these products at the OTC retail level. F. Continued pressure on health care product manufacturers to accommodate shorter packaging line runs should stimulate demand for packaging machinery with added flexibility to efficiently handle frequent changeovers. G. Big pharma company profits will remain vulnerable to generic manufacturers as patents expire on brand name blockbuster drugs 109 H. Heavy spending on packaging machinery in 2005 will lead some customers to ratchet back in 2006 The Pharmaceutical/Medical Devices Segment Sample The pharmaceutical and medical devices segment sample consisted of 52 respondents and covered packaging decisions relative to 148 establishments. Ninety-eight percent of the respondents participated in the 2005 study as well. 110 THE DURABLE HARD GOODS MARKET SEGMENT CONSUMER, COMMERCIAL, AND INDUSTRIAL (Formerly Two Defined Segments: The Hardware, Plumbing, Automotive, Industrial, and Related Components and Parts Segment; and The Durable Products, Consumer/ Commercial, Electronics, Appliances and Other Hard Goods Products Segment) The Segment Defined By the broad definition of durable products, products arbitrarily intended to last three or more years, this segment comprises manufacturers of a wide variety of consumer, commercial, and industrial hard goods. They include consumer appliances, electronic video and audio home entertainment items, personal computers and related products, CDs, computer software, photographic products, toys, games, sporting goods, among many other items. A large proportion of this segment’s products also falls within SIC 34 – Fabricated Metal Products, which contains: cutlery, hand tools, and hardware; plumbing fixtures and trim; structural and architectural trim; fasteners (nuts, bolts, etc.); industrial fittings and components; and a variety of related items. In addition, the segment further consists of products from SIC 37 – Transportation Equipment for automotive, aircraft, and marine parts; SIC 35 – Industrial Machinery and Equipment for replacement parts; SIC 36 – Electric and Electronic Equipment for certain parts; and SIC 30 – Rubber and Miscellaneous Plastic Products for a variety of consumer and commercial components and parts. Lower Spending Expected in 2006 U.S. manufacturers of durable goods as defined above, are expected to spend roughly -3% to -5% less for packaging machinery in 2006 than they did last year (Figure D-1). Based on a decline of -4 percent, the mid-point of the projected range, the segment’s total expenditures will fall to approximately $405 million. As the bar chart of Figure D-1 illustrates, this year’s predicted downturn comes on the heels of two consecutive annual increases, including a double-digit surge in 2004. A graphic summary showing how many of the sample’s respondents expect to increase spending this year versus the number projecting a decline is a reflection of the moderately bearish outlook prevailing in terms of the amount of dollars to be spent. As shown in Figure D-2, 37 percent of the respondents expect to invest less for packaging machinery this year, while a lesser 23 percent plan to add to last years total, and 40 percent are budgeting roughly the same amount as in 2005. 111 FIGURE D-1 HISTORICAL PROJECTED GROWTH OF U.S. DOMESTIC SPENDINGFOR PACKAGING MACHINERY BY THE DURABLE HARD GOODS SEGMENT ACCORDING TO THE PMMI PURCHASING PLANS STUDIES 1998 – 2006 (Percent Range of Projected Annual Growth) 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% High Point of Range 2% % Change 0% Low Point of Range -2% -4% -6% -8% -10% -12% 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 Source: PMMI A more detailed view of the segment’s increase-decrease ratio – by plant size (determined by number of employees) is presented in Figure D-3. As the bar-chart reveals, the downward trend is evident across all but one size category – the exception being the 100 – 499 employee size group where the ratio was even. Likelihood of Adjustments to Budget Plans In response to a line of inquiry assessing the potential for revisions in their spending plans as the year progresses respondents were first asked to rate on a scale of 1 to 10 their packaging machinery budget’s susceptibility to adjustment – either up or down – in response to changing economic and/or market factors. A rating of 1 means that they feel their budget is ‘set in stone’ and a rating of 10 means that it is ‘very susceptible to change’. As shown in 112 Figure D-4, 43 percent of the respondents rated their budgets on the higher end of the scale (between ‘6’ and ‘10’), while just 19 percent gave a rating of ‘1’. The remaining 38 percent positioned their spending plans on the lower end of the scale between ‘2’ and ‘5’. FIGURE D-2 PERCENT OF THE DURABLE HARD GOODS PRODUCTS SEGMENT SAMPLE PROJECTING AN INCREASE, DECREASE, AND NO CHANGE IN PACKAGING MACHINERY EXPENDITURES, COMPARISON 2006 VERSUS 2005 (Based on Conditions Existing as of January/February 2006) Will Spend About the Same 40% Will Increase Spending 23% Will Reduce Spending 37% Source: PMMI They were then asked as a follow-up: “If the budget were to be adjusted, which direction would you expect it to likely go – up, down, or is either direction equally possible?” As shown in Figure D-5, half the respondents said an increase is more probable, while just 18 percent favored the chances of a cut-back, and 32 percent said an adjustment in either direction is equally possible. 113 FIGURE D-3 PERCENT OF DURABLE HARD GOODS PRODUCTS SEGMENT SAMPLE PROJECTING AN INCREASE, DECREASE, AND NO CHANGE IN PACKAGING MACHINERY EXPENDITURES 2006 VS 2005 COMPARISON BY COMPANIES' EMPLOYEE PLANT SIZE (Based on Conditions As of Jan/Feb 2006) 100% 90% 80% 38% 31% 39% 60% 70% Project Decrease for 2006 60% 40% Project No Change for 2006 38% 50% 39% 50% 30% 40% 20% 31% 22% 10% 12% 0% 0% Less than 100 employees 100-499 employees 500-999 employees Source: PMMI 114 1000+ employees Project Increase for 2006 FIGURE D-4 THE DURABLE/HARD GOODS SEGMENT SAMPLE’S RATINGS REGARDING SUSCEPTIBILITY OF THEIR 2006 PACKAGING MACHINERY BUDGETS TO CHANGE FROM CURRENTLY PROJECTED LEVELS (Respondents rated their budget’s ‘susceptibility to change’ on a scale from 1 to 10 with 1 meaning the budget is ‘set in stone’ and 10 meaning it is ‘very changeable’) 70% 60% 50% 43% 38% 40% % of Responses 30% 20% 19% 10% 0% 1 2 to 5 6 to 10 Ratings Source: PMMI Reasons for Reducing Spending in 2006 As indicated earlier, 37 percent of the durables/hard goods segment’s respondents said they will spend less for packaging machinery this year than they did in 2005. Figure D-6 presents the reasons – cited by those respondents – for the expected cut-backs. Twenty-eight percent said their existing machinery is adequate for their current packaging needs, while another 22 percent pointed to limited available capital as the cause, and 17 percent simply stated that capital spending is being directed to other areas of the company this year. 115 FIGURE D-5 THE SAMPLE'S ASSESSMENT: IF THEIR CURRENT 2006 PACKAGING MACHINERY BUDGETS WERE ALTERED, WOULD THE REVISION MOST LIKELY BE HIGHER OR LOWER? (Based on Conditions Existing as of January/February 2006) More Likely Would Be Revised Higher 50% Equal Chance It Could Go Either Way 32% Source: PMMI More Likely Would Be Revised Lower 18% Reasons for Spending in 2006 In looking at why durables/hard goods companies are investing in packaging machinery this year, two reasons stand out among the rest in terms of being most commonly mentioned. As shown in Figure D-7, 50 percent of the respondents said their primary focus is to increase the efficiency and/or productivity of their existing packaging operations, while 38 percent said they are aiming to reduce labor and/or maintenance costs. Not surprisingly in light of intense global competition and rising energy and raw materials costs, both of those reasons squarely address the idea of squeezing more profit out of the manufacturing process. 116 FIGURE D-6 THE UNDERLYING REASONS FOR REDUCING SPENDING ON PACKAGING MACHINERY IN 2006 BY THE DURABLES/HARD GOODS SEGMENT (Of the RespondentsWho Indicated They Will Reduce Spending in 2006) More Retrofitting in Place of Buying New 6% Other Priorities this Year 17% 11% Plant Closings/Consolidation Using Contract Packagers More 6% Limited Capital Available/Budget Cuts 22% Existing Machinery is Adequate 28% Made Major Purchases in 2005 11% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% Source: PMMI Trends to Watch in 2006 While the respondents’ comments provide fairly general insight into their current budgetary considerations, the following underlying market trends merit monitoring throughout the year. Factors Limiting Packaging Machinery Spending A. Further Struggle by automotive parts industry The well-documented difficulty facing many U.S. auto parts manufacturers is expected to continue into 2006. The economic troubles of U.S. auto manufacturers are being funneled through the supply chain by cuts in production, while at the same time, raw material costs are rising, leaving auto parts makers with less demand and little leverage to pass along higher manufacturing costs. 117 FIGURE D-7 THE UNDERLYING REASONS FOR ORDERING PACKAGING MACHINERY IN 2006 BY THE DURABLES/HARD GOODS SEGMENT (For Respondents Who Indicated They Will Order Packaging Machinery in 2006) 7% Accommodate New Product Lines/New Package Designs 50% Improve Efficiency/Prod. of Existing Packaging Ops. Improve Ergonomics/Worker Safety 7% 11% Add Flexibility/Reduce Downtime 38% Reduce Labor/Maintenance Costs Adding Capacity to Existing Packaging Operations Source: PMMI 20% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% B. A continuation of manufacturing cost escalations Most durable product manufacturers will continue to be hampered by high energy and raw materials costs, which in turn will lead to lower profits, and less capital available for investment. While some manufacturers have been able to pass along the higher costs to their customers, others are being forced to keep prices lower to remain competitive with foreign suppliers. C. More plant closings/consolidations The manufacturing facilities of many U.S. companies in the durables/hard goods segment have been, and continue to be consolidated into more efficient operations that can more effectively compete with foreign manufacturers. Of the study’s respondents who said they will reduce spending for packaging machinery this year, 11 percent directly attributed the cut-backs to plant closings and/or consolidation. 118 D. Improved plant capacity rates, but still below traditional expansion trigger At the end of February 2006, capacity utilization rates at U.S. durables manufacturing plants averaged just above 79 percent, much improved from the roughly 76 percent average recorded in February 2005, but still below the low 80 percent range that often triggers expansion. Factors Supporting Spending for Packaging Machinery A. Look for continued strength of home improvement market Despite signs of a declining housing market, sales of hardware/home improvement products remain robust going into the year. B. Expect U.S. manufacturers to maintain focus on improving efficiency In the face of strong foreign and domestic competition, durables/hard goods manufacturers are expected to continue placing a high value on the improvement of manufacturing facilities as a means of driving down costs. Fifty percent of the study’s respondents who indicated they will buy packaging machinery this year, said they are doing so primarily to improve packaging line efficiency and/or productivity. C. Count on further need for packaging line automation While many durables product manufacturers have traditionally relied more on manual labor for packaging than other market segments, competitive pressures are forcing more companies to adapt partially or fully to automated packaging operations. Evidence of the trend is presented in Figure D7, as 38 percent of the study’s respondents (who are planning to buy packaging machinery this year) said they are buying machinery in 2006 primarily to reduce labor and/or maintenance costs. The Study’s Durable Hard Goods Segment Sample Respondents from 49 companies classified within the hardware, industrial, commercial, and automotive components and parts segment were interviewed in connection with this study. The components and parts manufactured by the group include: architectural and commercial hardware; OEM and aftermarket automotive parts; plumbing fixtures and 119 attachments; computer and printing equipment; major appliance parts; industrial gaskets, belts, and seals; heavy industrial equipment parts; abrasives; electronic components; electrical components, tools; and other related items. Two of the respondents answered for all of their respective organization’s domestic plant packaging operations. The data provided by the sample covered the packaging decisions of 119 U.S. plants and establishments. Of the total, 100 percent of the respondents participated in the 2005 study as well. 120 THE PERSONAL CARE PRODUCTS SEGMENT (Cosmetics, Toiletries, and All Other Related Items) The Segment Defined This market segment includes: manufacturers of health and beauty aids; fragrances and colognes; toilet preparations such as soaps, toothpaste, facial powders and creams, hair conditioners, etc. It also consists of producers of miscellaneous personal care products, e.g., bandages, cotton swabs, safety razors, shaving cream, combs and hair brushes, nail polish, shampoo, condoms, among others. Many of the products are classified under SIC 2844 – Toilet Preparations. Solid Increase in Spending Planned for 2006 Manufacturers of personal care products plan to ramp up spending on packaging machinery for their U.S. plants by +10% to +12% in 2006 to an estimated $414 million (Figure PC-1). The projected increase, which marks the fifth in as many years for the market segment, reflects in large part, an intensity of competition among the industry’s manufacturers, which is forcing packaging innovation and an influx of new product developments in order to win consumer dollars. As shown in Figure PC-2, 41 percent of the respondents plan to increase spending on packaging machinery during the year, 26 percent foresee a reduction, and another 33 percent plan to spend roughly the same amount as in 2005. Figure PC-3, which breaks down the increase-decrease ratios by plant size, reveals that a majority of the smaller plants (less than 100 employees) (57%) are planning a cut-back this year, but in each of the three larger size classifications the breadth is clearly favorable. Even Further Growth Possible With the understanding that budgets for capital expenditures are often subject to change, each respondent was asked a pair of questions dealing with the potential for revisions in their spending plans as the year progresses. The first asked them to rate on a scale of 1 to 10 how susceptible their packaging machinery budget is to adjustment – either up or down – in response to changing economic and/or market developments. A rating of 1 is to mean they feel their budget is ‘set in stone’ and a rating of 10 means that it is ‘very susceptible to change’. As revealed in Figure PC-4, 19 percent of the respondents characterized their 121 budget as being absolutely ‘set in stone’ whereas the other 81 percent said their spending plans have at least some potential to be adjusted – as indicated by a rating between 2 and 10. Moreover, 41 percent gave a rating between 6 and 10, or ‘fairly’ to ‘very’ susceptible to change as the year progresses. FIGURE PC-1 HISTORICAL PROJECTED GROWTH OF U.S. DOMESTIC SPENDING FOR PACKAGING MACHINERY BY THE PERSONAL CARE PRODUCTS SEGMENT ACCORDING TO THE PMMI PURCHASING PLANS STUDIES 1998 – 2006 (Percent Range of Projected Annual Growth) 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% High Point of Range 2% 0% -2% Low Point of Range -4% -6% -8% -10% 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 Source: PMMI 122 2004 2005 2006 FIGURE PC-2 PERCENT OF THE PERSONAL CARE PRODUCTS SEGMENT SAMPLE PROJECTING AN INCREASE, DECREASE, AND NO CHANGE IN PACKAGING MACHINERY EXPENDITURES COMPARISON 2006 VERSUS 2005 (Based on Conditions Existing As Of January/February 2006) Will Reduce Spending 26% Will Increase Spending 41% Will Spend About the Same 33% Source: PMMI 123 FIGURE PC-3 PERCENT OF THE PERSONAL CARE PRODUCTS SEGMENT SAMPLE PROJECTING AN INCREASE, DECREASE, AND NO CHANGE IN PACKAGING MACHINERY EXPENDITURES 2006 VS 2005 COMPARISON BY COMPANIES' PLANT SIZE (Based on Conditions as of January/February 2006) 0% 100% 11% 90% 25% 80% 70% 22% Project Decrease for 2006 57% 67% Project No Change for 2006 60% 37% 50% Project Increase for 2006 40% 67% 30% 29% 20% 38% 33% 10% 14% 0% Less than 100 Employees 100 to 499 Employees 500 to 999 Employees 1000+ Employees Source: PMMI Next, respondents were asked: “If the budget were to be adjusted, which direction would you expect it to likely go – up, down, or equally likely to be revised in either direction?” The piechart of Figure PC-5 reveals that half of the respondents (50%) said it would most likely go higher, while just 10 percent said lower, and the remaining 40 percent characterized it as being equally likely to go up or down. 124 FIGURE PC-4 THE PERSONAL CARE SEGMENT SAMPLE’S RATINGS REGARDING SUSCEPTIBILITY OF THEIR 2006 PACKAGING MACHINERY BUDGETS TO CHANGE FROM CURRENTLY PROJECTED LEVELS (Respondents rated their budget’s ‘susceptibility to change’ on a scale from 1 to 10 with 1 meaning the budget is ‘set in stone’ and 10 meaning it is ‘very changeable’) 70% 60% 50% 40% 41% 2 to 5 6 to 10 40% % of Responses 30% 19% 20% 10% 0% 1 Ratings Source: PMMI 125 Reasons for Ordering Machinery in 2006 Of the respondents who indicated intentions to purchase packaging machinery in 2006, 76 percent attributed their decision to the need for higher productivity and/or efficiency on their existing packaging lines (Figure PC-6). Other reasons cited frequently include: to add capacity to their packaging operations (56%); to accommodate new product lines and/or new packaging designs (52%); to add flexibility and/or reduce downtime associated with changeovers (24%); and to reduce labor and/or maintenance costs (24%). FIGURE PC-5 THE SAMPLE'S ASSESSMENT: IF THEIR CURRENT 2006 PACKAGING MACHINERY BUDGETS DO GET ALTERED, WOULD THE REVISION MOST LIKELY BE HIGHER OR LOWER? (Based on Conditions Existing as of January/February 2006) More Likely Would Be Revised Higher 50% Equal Chance It Could Go Either Way 40% More Likely Would Be Revised Lower 10% Reasons for Reducing Spending in 2006 In 2005 the personal care segment increased spending for packaging machinery by a solid +7% to +9%, so it is not surprising that 38 percent of those intending to spend less in 2006 126 cited heavy spending last year as the primary reason (Figure PC-7). And similarly reflecting the segment’s heavy packaging line investment in recent years, another 25 percent said they will spend less because their existing machinery is adequate for their current needs. General budget cuts (25%) and management decisions to concentrate on other areas (12%) were also said to account for some of the planned reductions. Trends to Watch in 2006 While the respondents’ comments provide fairly general insight into their current budgetary considerations, the following specific market trends merit monitoring throughout the year. Factors Supporting the Favorable Outlook A. Further influx of new packaging designs/styles The concept of using packaging innovation as a vehicle for differentiation from a crowd of competitors and/or for creating convenience for consumers, will continue to resonate among personal care product manufacturers as much or more than in any market segment. According to the findings, nearly half (48%) of the respondents plan to change or modify at least some aspect of the packaging on their existing products in 2006, and almost as many (44%) said they have plans to introduce a new product in 2006 with different packaging. B. A steady stream of new product introductions associated with increase in segmentation of health and beauty care products Manufacturers of hair care, skin care, oral care, and hygiene products are increasingly gearing products to specific demographics by gender, ethnicity, and age. C. Continuation of solid demand for skin care and oral care products Teeth whitening products and mouth washes/dental rinses are showing growth in the oral care segment while the skin care segment is leveraging consumer demand for the health and therapeutic benefits of products with hydrating and exfoliating ingredients. D. Moderate growth in cosmetics for new packaging and products 127 Growth Limiting Factors A. Pockets of Weakness Certain markets within the segment, including nail care, bar soaps, and fragrances are seeing pockets of weakness – in some cases due to market saturation and in others due to consumer demand trends. Still, major players within these sub-segments continue to remain active in their pursuit of packaging innovation. B. Negative cyclical effect from five consecutive years of increased spending FIGURE PC-6 THE UNDERLYING REASONS FOR ORDERING PACKAGING MACHINERY IN 2006 BY THE PERSONAL CARE PRODUCTS SEGMENT (For Respondents Who Indicated They Will Order Packaging Machinery in 2006) Accommodate New Product Lines/New Package Designs 52% Improve Efficiency/Prod. of Existing Packaging Ops. 76% Improve Ergonomics/Worker Safety 8% Add Flexibility/Reduce Downtime 24% Reduce Labor/Maintenance Costs 24% Adding Capacity to Existing Packaging Operations 56% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% Source: PMMI 128 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% FIGURE PC-7 THE UNDERLYING REASONS FOR REDUCING SPENDING ON PACKAGING MACHINERY IN 2006 BY THE PERSONAL CARE PRODUCTS SEGMENT (Of the RespondentsWho Indicated They Will Reduce Spending in 2006) Other Priorities 12% Budget Cuts 25% Existing Machinery is Adequate 25% Made Major Purchases in 2005 38% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% Source: PMMI The Personal Care Products Sample The personal care products sample consisted of 29 respondents, of which two answered for their companies’ entire U.S. domestic packaging operations or an entire division. In all, the sample’s response represented the 2006 purchasing plans of 43 plants. Ninety-seven percent of the 2006 sample participated in last year’s study as well. 129 THE CHEMICALS AND CLEANING/FINISHING PRODUCTS SEGMENT HOUSEHOLD, COMMERCIAL, AGRICULTURAL AND INDUSTRIAL The Segment Defined This segment is comprised of two distinct product groups: chemicals intended for industrial, commercial, agricultural, and garden use; and cleaning and finishing products designed largely for domestic use. Essentially all of the segment’s manufacturers are classified within SIC 28 – Chemicals and Allied Products. Included among the more common domestic products are: laundry detergent, bleach, furniture polish, liquid and powdered sink and tub cleansers, dishwasher detergent, paint, stain, insect repellent, pesticides, water conditioning and neutralizing chemicals, and others. The industrial, commercial, agricultural, and garden group includes: inorganic and organic chemicals, fertilizers and other agricultural chemicals, insecticides, and resins. Spending Decline Expected for 2006 According to their estimates, respondents from the industries that make up the chemicals segment will reduce spending for packaging machinery by -2% to -4% in 2006 to an estimated volume of $342 million (Figure C-1). As shown in Figure C-2, 51 percent are budgeting less, while just 34 percent plan to spend more this year and 15 percent expect to invest roughly the same amount as in 2005. A more detailed breakdown of the increasedecrease data is presented by company size in Figure C-3. While no fewer than half the companies within each size category are planning to cut-back on packaging machinery expenditures, the smaller plants (fewer than 100 employees) exhibit the least favorable ratio. While, certain external market factors (to be discussed) have significantly influenced the 2006 outlook for the smallest plants as well as for the market as a whole, it is worth noting that in 2005 the segment’s smallest plants exhibited the best increase-decrease ratio favoring positive breadth. Therefore, the cyclical effect of recent heavy spending for that group undoubtedly played a role in their 2006 projections. But Respondents Allow Possibility for Improvement With the understanding that budgets for capital expenditures are often subject to change, each respondent was asked a pair of questions dealing with the potential for revisions in their 130 spending plans as the year progresses. The first asked them to rate on a scale of 1 to 10 their packaging machinery budget’s susceptibility to adjustment – either up or down – in response FIGURE C-1 HISTORICAL PROJECTED GROWTH OF U.S. DOMESTIC SPENDING FOR PACKAGING MACHINERY BY THE CHEMICAL PRODUCTS SEGMENT ACCORDING TO THE PMMI PURCHASING PLANS STUDIES 1998 – 2006 (Percent Range of Projected Annual Growth) 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% High Point of Range 2% % Change 0% -2% Low Point of Range -4% -6% -8% -10% -12% -14% 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 Source: PMMI to changing economic and/or market factors. A rating of 1 means that they feel their budget is ‘set in stone’ and a rating of 10 means that it is ‘very susceptible to change’. As shown in Figure C-4, one-third rated their budget plans at ‘1’ or ‘set in stone’, leaving two-thirds that characterized their estimates as at least somewhat changeable based on ratings between ‘2’ 131 and ‘10’. Moreover, 44 percent placed their rating between ‘6’ and ‘10’ insinuating their plans are fairly to very changeable. As a follow-up, they were asked: “If the budget were to be adjusted, which direction would you expect it to likely go – up, down, or is either FIGURE C-2 PERCENT OF THE CHEMICAL PRODUCTS SEGMENT SAMPLE PROJECTING AN INCREASE, DECREASE, AND NO CHANGE IN PACKAGING MACHINERY EXPENDITURES COMPARISON 2006 VERSUS 2005 (Based on Conditions Existing as of January & February 2006) Will Increase Spending 34% Will Reduce Spending 51% Will Spend About the Same 15% Source: PMMI direction equally possible?” Based on the response, it appears that the segment’s spending budgets are much more likely to be adjusted higher than lower as the year unfolds (Figure C5). Many who favored an upward revision commented that the possibility of additional business from new product introductions and/or stronger than anticipated market demand was the basis for their reasoning. Others simply stated “it can only go up” because their current estimates only include purchases that are absolutely necessary and do not account for unanticipated needs that may arise during the year. On the other hand, the vast majority of those leaning toward a downward revision attributed their reasoning to the potential for further slowing of market demand. 132 FIGURE C-3 PERCENT OF THE CHEMICAL PRODUCTS SEGMENT SAMPLE PROJECTING AN INCREASE, DECREASE, AND NO CHANGE IN PACKAGING MACHINERY EXPENDITURES 2006 VS 2005 BY COMPANIES' EMPLOYEE PLANT SIZE (Based on Conditions As Of January/February 2006) 100% 90% 80% 50% 53% 70% 50% 60% Project Decrease for 2006 Project No Change for 2006 50% 6% 40% Project Increase for 2006 23% 30% 50% 41% 20% 10% 27% 0% Less than 100 Employees 100 to 499 Employees Over 500 Employees Source: PMMI Reasons for Less Spending This Year As revealed earlier, slightly over half the chemical segment’s respondents (51%) expect their plant(s) to spend less for packaging machinery this year than in 2005, and as shown in Figure C-6, 48 percent of those attributed the cut-back to the adequacy of their existing machinery to handle their current packaging needs. An additional 33 percent specifically noted that they spent heavily for packaging machinery in 2005 and therefore are either adequately equipped or unable to match the volume of spending again this year. 133 FIGURE C-4 THE CHEMICAL SEGMENT SAMPLE’S RATINGS REGARDING SUSCEPTIBILITY OF THEIR 2006 PACKAGING MACHINERY BUDGETS TO CHANGE FROM CURRENTLY PROJECTED LEVELS (Respondents rated their budget’s ‘susceptibility to change’ on a scale from 1 to 10 with 1 meaning the budget is ‘set in stone’ and 10 meaning it is ‘very changeable’) 70% 60% 50% 40% 44% 33% % of Responses 30% 23% 20% 10% 0% 1 2 to 5 6 to 10 Ratings Source: PMMI Reasons for Higher Spending in 2006 Of the 34 percent of chemical segment respondents planning to increase spending for packaging machinery in 2006, the vast majority (91%) indicated that at least in part, they are doing so to improve packaging line efficiency and/or productivity (Figure C-7). Fifty-three percent said they need to increase the capacity of their existing packaging operation, and 34 percent are aiming to reduce labor and/or maintenance costs. Trends to Watch in 2006 While the respondents’ comments provide fairly general insight into their current budgetary considerations, the following underlying market trends merit monitoring throughout the year. 134 Factors Limiting Packaging Machinery Spending in 2006 A. Look for continuation of effects from high raw material costs Leading up to 2006, high oil and natural gas prices have forced chemical companies to either pass the added manufacturing costs on to customers or to endure lower profits. B. Expect lingering effects of 2005 Gulf Coast hurricanes Many chemical product manufacturers with plants on the gulf coast continue to suffer the damaging effects from the recent hurricane season. FIGURE C-5 THE SAMPLE'S ASSESSMENT: IF THEIR CURRENT 2006 PACKAGING MACHINERY BUDGETS WERE ALTERED, WOULD THE REVISION MOST LIKELY BE HIGHER OR LOWER? (Based on Conditions Existing as of January/February 2006) Equal Chance It Could Go Either Way 25% More Likely Would Be Revised Higher 57% More Likely Would Be Revised Lower 18% Source: PMMI 135 C. More production to be moved overseas Reflecting rising costs of doing business in the U.S., particularly in light of higher natural gas prices, many chemical producers are moving their manufacturing operations to lower-cost regions such as Asia and the Middle East. D. Slower demand expected from the auto industry Chemical companies supplying coatings for automobiles will continue to endure slowing sales to the struggling North American auto industry. FIGURE C-6 THE UNDERLYING REASONS FOR REDUCING SPENDING ON PACKAGING MACHINERY IN 2006 BY THE CHEMICALS SEGMENT (Of the Respondents Who Indicated They Will Reduce Spending in 2006) Outsource Packaging More 5% Closing Plant/Consolidation 5% Lower Sales, Rising Costs 10% Existing Machinery is Adequate 48% Made Major Purchases in 2005 33% 0% 10% 20% Source: PMMI 136 30% 40% 50% 60% Factors Supporting Spending in 2006 A. Possible easing of natural gas prices this year Many chemical industry analysts are optimistic that chemical companies’ profits will improve in 2006, based heavily on the expectation of lower natural gas prices. Notably, a significant number of the segment’s respondents made it clear that their spending projections for this year are not ‘set in stone’ and could go higher if the market improves (Figures C-4 and C-5). B. High rate of new product introductions U.S. chemical product manufacturers will continue to introduce many new products as a way of differentiating themselves from competitors. FIGURE C-7 THE UNDERLYING REASONS FOR ORDERING PACKAGING MACHINERY IN 2006 BY THE CHEMICALS SEGMENT (For Respondents Who Indicated They Will Order Packaging Machinery in 2006) 3% Building New Plants 22% Accommodate New Product Lines/New Package Designs 91% Improve Efficiency/Prod. of Existing Packaging Ops. Improve Ergonomics/Worker Safety 9% 12% Add Flexibility/Reduce Downtime 34% Reduce Labor/Maintenance Costs 53% Adding Capacity to Existing Packaging Operations Source: PMMI 0% 10% 137 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% C. Continued focus on improving plant efficiency In light of increased manufacturing costs, many chemical product firms are focusing efforts on expanding automation and improving efficiency of their U.S. plants. Figure C-7, reveals that 91 percent of the respondents who plan to increase packaging machinery spending this year are doing so, at least in part, to improve packaging line efficiency/productivity. D. Lawn and garden products sector to remain a bright spot Linked with robust home improvement product sales that appear to be continuing into 2006 despite a slowdown in the housing market, lawn and garden chemical demand will remain solid. E. Robust paint and coatings sales for home improvements The Chemical Segment Sample Respondents from 44 companies classified within the chemical products segment were interviewed in connection with the study. Of the total, three answered for all of their respective organization’s domestic plant operations. The data provided by the sample covered the packaging decisions of 68 plants and establishments. Significantly, 95.4 percent of the sample’s respondents took part in the study last year as well. 138 PAPER PRODUCTS, TEXTILES, AND ALL OTHER SOFT GOODS AND NON-DURABLES, N.E.C. The Segment Defined This is an extremely diverse market segment, which consists of a wide range of products, generally falling into the non-durables category, i.e., consumer and commercial soft goods, such as paper products and textiles, as well as some hard good disposables. More specific examples include: stationery and writing tablets; computer and copying paper; napkins; paper towels; facial and toilet tissue; sanitary napkins; disposable diapers; packaged clothing products, such as socks, stockings, underwear, etc.; notions and novelties; pens and pencils; and a variety of other miscellaneous products. FIGURE ND-1 HISTORICAL PROJECTED GROWTH OF U.S. DOMESTIC SPENDING FOR PACKAGING MACHINERY BY THE NON-DURABLE PRODUCTS SEGMENT ACCORDING TO THE PMMI PURCHASING PLANS STUDIES 1998 – 2006 (Percent Range of Projected Annual Growth) 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% Maximum Forecast Range 0% Percent Change % -2% Minimum Forecast Range -4% -6% -8% -10% -12% -14% 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 Source: PMMI 139 Spending Expected to be Flat in Paper/Non-Durables Segment The diverse group of industries, which together make up the U.S. paper/non-durables segment, plan to spend approximately $346 million for packaging machinery in 2006 – roughly the same as in 2005. The zero growth expectation (the mid-point of the -1% to +1% forecast) is the fifth in as many years that does not show a meaningful increase (Figure ND1). The data presented in Figure ND-2, however, offer a potentially redeeming spin FIGURE ND-2 PERCENT OF THE PAPER PRODUCTS, TEXTILES AND SOFT GOODS/NON-DURABLES SEGMENT SAMPLE PROJECTING AN INCREASE, DECREASE, AND NO CHANGE IN PACKAGING MACHINERY EXPENDITURES COMPARISON 2006 VERSUS 2005 (Based on Conditions as of Jan/Feb 2006) Will Reduce Spending 34% Will Increase Spending 50% Will Spend About the Same 16% Source: PMMI 140 FIGURE ND-3 PERCENT OF THE PAPER, TEXTILES, SOFT-GOODS NON-DURABLE PRODUCTS SAMPLE PROJECTING AN INCREASE, DECREASE, AND NO CHANGE IN PACKAGING MACHINERY EXPENDITURES 2006 VS 2005 COMPARISON BY COMPANIES' PLANT SIZE (As of Jan/Feb 2006) 100% 90% 23% 39% 80% 40% 40% 70% Project Decrease for 2006 23% 60% 15% 20% 50% Project No Change for 2006 40% 30% 46% 20% Project Increase for 2006 60% 54% 40% 10% 0% Less than 100 Employees 100 to 499 Employees 500 to 999 Employees 1000+ Employees Source: PMMI on the otherwise lackluster forecast. By a margin of 50 percent to 34 percent, the number of respondents who indicated their plant(s) will spend more for packaging machinery this year noticeably exceeds the group estimating a decline. The favorable ratio, though encouraging in terms of its potential to produce a positive momentum swing, does not necessarily translate into higher overall dollar expenditures for two reasons. First, a closer look at the findings shows that many of the projected increases are just slightly above last year’s totals, barely offsetting the fewer, but often more dramatic projected cut-backs. Second, as revealed in Figure ND-3, a significant portion of the projected declines are from the bigger plants, which 141 due to their size, account for a disproportionately larger amount of the segment’s annual capital spending total. Potential for Adjustment as Year Progresses With the understanding that budgets for capital expenditures are often subject to change, each respondent was asked a pair of questions dealing with the potential for revisions in their spending plans as the year progresses. The first asked them to rate on a scale of 1 to 10 their packaging machinery budget’s susceptibility to adjustment – either up or down – in response to changing economic and/or market factors. A rating of 1 means that they feel their budget is ‘set in stone’ and a rating of 10 means that it is ‘very susceptible to change’. FIGURE ND-4 THE NON-DURABLE SEGMENT SAMPLE’S RATINGS REGARDING SUSCEPTIBILITY OF THEIR 2006 PACKAGING MACHINERY BUDGETS TO CHANGE FROM CURRENTLY PROJECTED LEVELS (Respondents rated their budget’s ‘susceptibility to change’ on a scale from 1 to 10 with 1 meaning the budget is ‘set in stone’ and 10 meaning it is ‘very changeable’) 50% 45% 40% 40% 34% 35% 30% % of Responses 26% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 1 2 to 5 Ratings Source: PMMI 142 6 to 10 FIGURE ND-5 THE SAMPLE'S ASSESSMENT: IF THEIR CURRENT 2006 PACKAGING MACHINERY BUDGET WERE ALTERED, WOULD THE REVISION MOST LIKELY BE HIGHER OR LOWER? (Based on Conditions Existing as of January/February 2006) More Likely Would Be Revised Higher 43% Equal Chance It Could Go Either Way 35% More Likely Would Be Revised Lower 22% Source: PMMI The results, presented in Figure ND-4, indicate that just over one-quarter of the respondents labeled their budgets as being ‘set in stone’. On the other hand, 40 percent categorized their spending plans as somewhat changeable (rating between ‘2’ and ‘5’), and 34 percent placed their ratings in the range of moderately to very changeable (between ‘6’ and ‘10’. Next, respondents were asked: “If the budget were to be adjusted, which direction you would expect it to likely go – up, down, or is either direction equally possible?” The findings undoubtedly favor upward corrections over cut-backs by a margin of 43 percent to 22 percent, with 35 percent reporting no bias in either direction (Figure ND-5). Many of the respondents who indicated their spending would more likely be adjusted higher rationalized that their current budgets will satisfy just a bare minimum of their packaging needs for the year, so any change that occurs would have to be an increase. Others more specifically 143 pointed to the potential for either packaging related changes passed down by management or simply greater market demand as reasons their spending would go higher. Conversely, many of the respondents who believe a downward revision is more likely said worsening market conditions would cause management to make cuts; while still others said money could be redirected to other areas with more pressing needs. FIGURE ND-6 THE UNDERLYING REASONS FOR ORDERING PACKAGING MACHINERY IN 2006 BY THE NON-DURABLES SEGMENT (For Respondents Who Indicated They Will Order Packaging Machinery in 2006) Accommodate New Product Lines/New Package Designs 30% Improve Efficiency/Prod. of Existing Packaging Ops. 90% Improve Ergonomics/Worker Safety 3% Add Flexibility/Reduce Downtime 3% Reduce Labor/Maintenance Costs 23% Adding Capacity to Existing Packaging Operations 23% Source: PMMI 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Reasons for Ordering Machinery in 2006 Figure ND-6 provides a breakdown of the reasons respondents cited for buying packaging machinery this year. As indicated by the bar chart, the vast majority – 90 percent – reported that at least one of the major reasons is to improve the efficiency and/or productivity of their packaging operations, while 30 percent mentioned the need to accommodate new packaging requirements as a significant factor. Also, 23 percent said they are buying machinery to reduce labor and maintenance costs, and 23 percent gave as their primary reason, plans to expand the packaging capacity of their existing operations. 144 Reasons for Reducing Spending in 2006 As indicated earlier, 34 percent of the segment’s companies will spend less for packaging machinery this year than in 2005. Of those, 27 percent are doing so at least partially as a result of heavy spending in 2005, while respondents from an additional 27 percent indicated that their existing machinery can adequately handle their current packaging needs. And another 27 percent broadly attributed the decline to general budget cuts. Notably, 20 percent specifically mentioned that plant closings and consolidation contributed to the cut-backs. FIGURE ND-7 THE UNDERLYING REASONS FOR REDUCING SPENDING ON PACKAGING MACHINERY IN 2006 BY THE NON-DURABLES SEGMENT (Of the Respondents That Indicated They Will Reduce Spending in 2006) 20% Plant Closing/Consolidation Other Priorities 7% Budget Cuts 27% Existing Machinery is Adequate 27% Made Major Purchases in 2005 27% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% Source: PMMI Trends to Watch in 2006 While the respondents’ comments provide fairly general insight into their current budgetary considerations, the following underlying market trends merit monitoring throughout the year. 145 Factors Supporting Spending for Packaging Machinery A. Paper Industry will continue its focus on improving packaging efficiency Faced with increasing domestic and global competition, higher raw materials costs, and higher energy costs, many in paper-based industries such as diapers, tissues, wipes, and office paper, among others, are actively searching for greater efficiencies in their manufacturing processes, particularly packaging operations. As Figure ND-6, reveals, 90 percent of the segment’s respondents indicated that increasing packaging line efficiency and/or productivity is a primary motive for their planned expenditures in 2006. B. Look for continued high demand for pre-moistened and dry wipes Companies will continue to introduce a number of new products related to the growing popularity of disposable wipes for a variety of household cleaning applications and personal care uses. C. Expect ongoing development of new packaging styles and configurations associated with convenience trend in consumer tissue, baby wipe, diaper markets Consumer packaged goods companies will continue to introduce their products in a host of new, more portable, convenient, and single-use packages to stimulate demand in otherwise saturated markets. D. High capacity utilization rates in paper industry to be sustained According to U.S. government data, average plant capacity rates among companies in the U.S. paper industry have been hovering above 87 percent during the first two months of 2006. While the high rate is partially due to the effects of industry consolidation, it nonetheless represents a positive sign for the market. Factors Limiting Further Spending for Packaging Machinery A. Rising Manufacturing Costs While higher raw materials and energy costs are in some cases causing manufacturers to upgrade to newer, more efficient packaging 146 equipment as a means of reducing costs, they are also forcing some companies to delay or cancel new capital spending projects. B. Further consolidation and plant closings Fierce global competition and high manufacturing costs continue to force U.S. manufacturers in the paper and apparel industries to move operations to lower-cost producers overseas and/or to create greater efficiencies domestically through consolidation. C. Increasing availability of lower-cost reconditioned and/or used packaging machinery associated with industry consolidation The Segment’s Sample Thirty-nine (39) respondents representing 90 plants within the paper products, textiles, and all other soft goods and non-durables products segment provided information and data for this study. The companies include manufacturers of tissues, napkins, paper towels, office supplies, pre-moisture wipes, greeting cards, paper, hosiery and underwear, pens, carpets, tack cloth, paper plates/cups/bowls, pads/notebooks, men’s and women’s undergarments, sanitary paper products, and other related items. Of the respondents interviewed, three (3) answered for the packaging operations of all their respective companies’ plants. In addition, 76.9 percent of the sample participated in last year’s study as well. 147
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