The University of Chicago Local Adaptation by Alleles of Small Effect* Author(s): Sam Yeaman, Source: The American Naturalist, (-Not available-), p. S000 Published by: The University of Chicago Press for The American Society of Naturalists Stable URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/10.1086/682405 . Accessed: 25/08/2015 16:54 Your use of the JSTOR archive indicates your acceptance of the Terms & Conditions of Use, available at . http://www.jstor.org/page/info/about/policies/terms.jsp . JSTOR is a not-for-profit service that helps scholars, researchers, and students discover, use, and build upon a wide range of content in a trusted digital archive. We use information technology and tools to increase productivity and facilitate new forms of scholarship. For more information about JSTOR, please contact [email protected]. . The University of Chicago Press, The American Society of Naturalists, The University of Chicago are collaborating with JSTOR to digitize, preserve and extend access to The American Naturalist. http://www.jstor.org This content downloaded from 136.159.49.113 on Tue, 25 Aug 2015 16:54:36 PM All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions vol. 186, supplement the american naturalist october 2015 Symposium Local Adaptation by Alleles of Small Effect* Sam Yeaman† Department of Forest and Conservation Sciences, 2424 Main Mall, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia V6T 1Z4, Canada; and Department of Botany, 6270 University Boulevard, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia V6T 1Z4, Canada Online enhancements: appendix, source code. abstract: Population genetic models predict that alleles with small selection coefficients may be swamped by migration and will not contribute to local adaptation. But if most alleles contributing to standing variation are of small effect, how does local adaptation proceed? Here I review predictions of population and quantitative genetic models and use individual-based simulations to illustrate how the architecture of local adaptation depends on the genetic redundancy of the trait, the maintenance of standing genetic variation (VG), and the susceptibility of alleles to swamping. Even when population genetic models predict swamping for individual alleles, considerable local adaptation can evolve at the phenotypic level if there is sufficient VG. However, in such cases the underlying architecture of divergence is transient: FST is low across all loci, and no locus makes an important contribution for very long. Because this kind of local adaptation is mainly due to transient frequency changes and allelic covariances, these architectures will be difficult—if not impossible—to detect using current approaches to studying the genomic basis of adaptation. Even when alleles are large and resistant to swamping, architectures can be highly transient if genetic redundancy and mutation rates are high. These results suggest that drift can play a critical role in shaping the architecture of local adaptation, both through eroding VG and affecting the rate of turnover of polymorphisms with redundant phenotypic effects. Keywords: local adaptation, genomic signature, allelic covariance, linkage disequilibrium, gene flow, migration. Introduction What is the genetic basis of adaptation? How many variants contribute to a given adaptive phenotype? How big are their effects? Where are they in the genome? These questions are currently the subject of intense empirical scrutiny and theoretical discussion (Stinchcombe and Hoekstra 2008; Rockman 2012; Martin and Orgogozo 2013; Savolainen et al. 2013; Lee et al. 2014). With recent advances in sequencing * This issue originated as the 2014 Vice Presidential Symposium presented at the annual meetings of the American Society of Naturalists. † Present address: Department of Biological Sciences, University of Calgary, Calgary, Alberta T2N 1N4, Canada; e-mail: [email protected]. Am. Nat. 2015. Vol. 186, pp. S000–S000. q 2015 by The University of Chicago. 0003-0147/2015/186S1-55813$15.00. All rights reserved. DOI: 10.1086/682405 technology, it is now possible to explore associations between millions of single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) and the phenotypes and environments involved with local adaptation (e.g., Hohenlohe et al. 2010; Fournier-Level et al. 2011; Soria-Corrasco et al. 2014). Beyond our mechanistic interest in connecting genotype to phenotype, characterizing these variants allows us to answer questions about how evolution shapes a species. In particular, the way that a species inhabits a landscape can profoundly shape the number, size, and genomic location of the alleles that contribute to variation in an adaptive trait (i.e., its genetic architecture) as well as the copy number and genomic location of the loci that could potentially contribute to a trait (i.e., its genomic architecture). As individuals disperse among regions, they may encounter different environments or competitors, which can result in natural selection acting at different strengths or in different directions in trait space. Depending on the relationship between spatial variation in selection and the rate of migration across a landscape, heterogeneous environments can lead to local adaptation (Felsenstein 1976; Hedrick et al. 1976; Hedrick 1986; Linhart and Grant 1996; Hereford 2009), affect the maintenance of standing genetic variance (Slatkin 1978; Lytghoe 1997; Tufto 2000; Yeaman and Jarvis 2006), and result in speciation (Schluter 2000; Nosil 2012). By formulating clear predictions about how migration, selection, and drift combine to shape genetic and genomic architecture and testing these predictions with empirical data, we can learn much about how landscape shapes these fundamental aspects of evolution. Population genetic models have provided the most tractable approach to generating testable predictions about the evolution of genetic architecture under the balance between divergent selection and migration. Haldane (1930) showed that a locally favored allele would be lost from a single-island population when the rate of immigration (m) of a maladapted genotype exceeds the strength of selection (s) against it. Subsequent studies have identified similar critical thresholds for the maintenance of locally adapted polymorphisms in models with a wide range of de- This content downloaded from 136.159.49.113 on Tue, 25 Aug 2015 16:54:36 PM All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions S000 The American Naturalist mographics and patterns of environmental variation (reviewed in Felsenstein 1976; Bürger 2014). Conceptually, the results of the single-locus, two-patch model can be understood as follows: the mean fitness of an allele depends on the proportion of evolutionary time (over multiple generations) that it spends in each environment and the fitness that it experiences there. At higher migration rates, a locally adapted allele will spend a larger proportion of its evolutionary time in environments where it is disfavored, and above a critical migration rate it may have a lower mean fitness than an intermediate, nonlocally adapted allele (or if both alleles are equally specialized, one will be lost). At this point, the maintenance of polymorphism will be deterministically disfavored, although loss of polymorphism is also possible due to drift when the mean fitness of the locally adapted alleles is only slightly higher than that of an intermediate allele (Yeaman and Otto 2011). This basic dynamic can be extended to asymmetrical migration rates, strengths of selection, and population densities and to incorporate the amount of evolutionary time spent in different genetic backgrounds in a multilocus context. The generality of the critical migration threshold result implies that large-effect alleles will be more likely to contribute to local adaptation, as they are more able to overcome the homogenizing effect of migration, or “gene swamping” (Lenormand 2002). When migration rates are below the critical threshold and polymorphism tends to be maintained, larger alleles also have higher probabilities of establishment and longer persistence times, further suggesting that architectures evolving under migration-selection balance should be enriched for large-effect alleles (Yeaman and Otto 2011; Yeaman and Whitlock 2011). Simulation studies show that the effect-size distribution of alleles that underlie a locally adapted trait tends to be shifted toward larger alleles when there is persistent migration-selection balance, so that the same amount of local adaptation can occur with fewer, larger alleles (Griswold 2006; Yeaman and Whitlock 2011). Thus, one way of assessing the importance of migration in shaping adaptive evolution is to study the genetic architecture of traits in comparisons of allopatric versus parapatric pairs of populations inhabiting contrasting environments (as per Renaut et al. 2013). If we observe a given rate of migration between contrasting environments, we might predict that stable maintenance of allelic polymorphism would be effectively prevented by swamping if all genetic variants are of small effect relative to the migration rate. However, it is unclear whether this would present a barrier to adaptation at the phenotypic level, in part because alleles that are prone to swamping may still persist in the population for short periods of time and may contribute ephemerally to local adaptation. Hereafter, I will use the term “swampingprone alleles” to denote alleles with selection coefficients that fall below the critical threshold predicted by the appropriate population genetic model, analogous to s ! m in Haldane’s continent-island model, and “swampingresistant alleles” for the converse. It is important to note that the actual value of the critical threshold can differ substantially according to model assumptions and must include the effect of linkage for polygenic traits. In addition, the transition from swamping resistant to swamping prone can involve a gradual transition in dynamics (e.g., gradual changes in the persistence time of a polymorphism or mean allelic divergence at equilibrium; Yeaman and Otto 2011). The aim of this article is to explore the concept of swamping as a barrier to local adaptation and clarify how population and quantitative genetic models relate to this issue. I will begin by reviewing theory on the importance of linkage disequilibrium (LD), as this modifies the predictions for when swamping should occur, and provide a brief review of quantitative and population genetic models. I will then return to the main issue, using simulations to illustrate how genetic architecture and local adaptation evolves when individual alleles are small and the effect of LD is insufficient to prevent swamping. The Effect of LD When extrapolating to the whole-genome scale, predictions about swamping need to be modified to account for the effect of LD between locally adapted alleles (Slatkin 1975; Barton 1983; Bürger and Akerman 2011; Yeaman and Whitlock 2011; Aeschbacher and Bürger 2014). LD can alter the mean fitness of an allele through associations with other locally adapted alleles that arise due to either physical linkage when the alleles are on the same chromosome or statistical association when the alleles are on different chromosomes. In either case, the magnitude of fitness increase for a focal allele depends on the number of other alleles under selection, their frequencies, and their linkage relationships (Barton and Bengtsson 1986; Bürger and Akerman 2011; Aeschbacher and Bürger 2014). This locally increased fitness results in a decreased rate of gene flow at the focal locus relative to the migration rate, which has been termed the “effective migration rate” (me; Petry 1983; Bengtsson 1985; Bengtsson and Barton 1986; Feder and Nosil 2010; Huisman and Tufto 2013) and has also been discussed in terms of reduced rates of “betweenpopulation recombination” (Via 2012; Feder et al. 2013). The effects of LD for physically linked and unlinked loci have also been discussed in terms of “divergence hitchhiking” and “genomic hitchhiking,” respectively, but these terms have been applied to both causal processes and resulting patterns in the literature, so it is not clear how they should be applied to discuss swamping. If the LD-mediated indirect effect of divergent selection is sufficiently large, it This content downloaded from 136.159.49.113 on Tue, 25 Aug 2015 16:54:36 PM All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions Adaptation by Swamping-Prone Alleles may cause a new locally adapted mutation that otherwise would be prone to swamping to instead be resistant to swamping (Yeaman and Whitlock 2011), as has been elegantly shown using two-locus analytical models (Bürger and Akerman 2011; Aeschbacher and Bürger 2014; Akerman and Bürger 2014). Two broad predictions emerge from the extensive body of theoretical work on the effects of LD on adaptation (reviewed in Smadja and Butlin 2011; Feder et al. 2012a). First, physical linkage should most strongly affect the mean fitness of a focal allele when the strength of divergent selection on a linked background locus is large relative to the recombination rate between them (s 1 r; Petry 1983; Barton and Bengtsson 1986; Bürger and Akerman 2011; Yeaman and Whitlock 2011; Aeschbacher and Bürger 2014; Akerman and Bürger 2014). This means that if the rate of recombination among loci is much greater than the strength of selection, then physical linkage should not substantially modify the predictions for swamping. Second, statistical associations among locally adapted alleles that are physically unlinked will have substantial effects on mean fitness at a focal allele only when the overall strength of selection against the immigrant phenotype (S) is very strong (Bengtsson 1985; Barton and Bengtsson 1986; Feder et al. 2012b; Flaxman et al. 2013). While statistical LD among selected loci will modify the predictions about swamping, the effect is typically very slight unless selection is very strong. For example, Aeschbacher and Bürger (2014, eq. [10]) analyzed a discrete-time continent-island model with migration rate m and found that the critical migration threshold for a weakly selected locus (with strength of selection p s1) linked to a strongly selected locus (with strength of selection p s2) is m* p s1 (s2 2 s1 1 r)=½(s1 2 r)(s1 2 s2 ) 1 r(1 2 s1 ), where r is the rate of recombination between the loci. Setting r p 0.5 and assuming that s2 represents the sum of the fitness effects of all other loci (s2 p S 2 s1 ), then m* p 0.0101 for s1 p 0.01 and s2 p 0.1, which is only slightly higher than m* p 0.01 for the single-locus model, illustrating the limited importance of statistical LD when S is small. Similarly, Feder et al. (2012b) found small effects of statistical LD on establishment probability (which is related to the critical threshold; Yeaman and Otto 2011) when the total strength of phenotypic selection (S) was small. Taken together, the results of the above-described studies suggest that if LD causes alleles that are independently prone to swamping to instead be resistant to swamping, this effect will likely be restricted to clustered regions in the genome unless the relative fitness of migrants and their offspring is very low (i.e., S ≫0.1). As the scope for either type of LD to affect swamping would be especially limited at the outset of an adaptive walk (when fitness differences between populations are low), swamping presents an intriguing and potentially significant theoretical hurdle to local adaptation. S000 Does Swamping Limit Local Adaptation in Polygenic Traits? Despite the predicted importance of swamping, it is not immediately clear how to reconcile this prediction with the behavior of quantitative genetic models of local adaptation. Quantitative genetic models come from a very different perspective than population genetic models, beginning from the assumption that standing genetic variance is due to many alleles of vanishingly small effect. This allows the details of genetic architecture to be subsumed into parameters representing the mean, variance, and higher moments of the distribution of genetic values (Turelli and Barton 1994; Falconer and Mackay 1996). Models of local adaptation predict the trait divergence at equilibrium by finding the point where the response to divergent selection is balanced by the homogenizing effect of migration (e.g., Tufto 2000; Hendry et al. 2001; Lopez et al. 2008; Yeaman and Guillaume 2009; Huisman and Tufto 2012). The behavior of these quantitative genetic models can be seen most easily by examining the two-patch model of Hendry et al. (2001): Dp DV V G , VG (1 2 m) 1 (q2 1 VP )m (1) where the equilibrium trait divergence (D) is a function of the difference in the optimal trait values of the two populations (DV), the strength of Gaussian stabilizing selection within each population (q2), migration rate (m), and genetic (VG) and phenotypic (VP) variance in the quantitative trait under selection. Because D scales with VG and VG is a parameter, divergence cannot be predicted a priori from these models without knowing what determines VG, which can itself be affected by migration-selection balance. A modified version of this model that also accounts for genetic skew yields more accurate predictions of the equilibrium divergence observed in simulations (Debarre et al. 2015). If we examine a simplified case where two populations experience different environments (V p 21 vs. 11), m p 0.005, q2 p 25, and VP p VG , this model predicts equilibrium divergence to be D=Dv p 8VG =(8VG 1 1), showing that adaptation is expected to increase with VG but giving little insight into how VG is maintained. If similar parameters are used in the single-locus model of Yeaman and Otto (2011), then stable allelic divergence would be predicted only for alleles with phenotypic effect sizes of a ≫ 0.0215, which is about 1% of the difference in environmental optima (V2 2 V1 p 2; see eq. [A1] in the appendix [available online] for details). At first glance, these models might seem to contradict each other: population genetic models predict that only large alleles will contribute to di- This content downloaded from 136.159.49.113 on Tue, 25 Aug 2015 16:54:36 PM All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions S000 The American Naturalist vergence, while quantitative genetic models predict that divergence will evolve as long as VG is maintained. Because standing variation is nearly ubiquitous in quantitative traits (Houle 1992; Falconer and Mackay 1996) and is commonly due to alleles of small effect (Mackay et al. 2009; Rockman 2012), the quantitative genetic model would seem to predict that some local adaptation should always evolve, even with small-effect alleles. While there are numerous technical problems that arise when contrasting models with such different assumptions (see the appendix for further discussion), this simple contrast suggests that we have an incomplete understanding of how polygenic traits will evolve when alleles are small and prone to swamping. A different approach to studying local adaptation using quantitative genetics has been taken by Latta (1998, 2003) and Le Corre and Kremer (2003, 2011, 2012), who showed that a quantitative genetic measure of adaptation (QST) can be decomposed into terms representing the amount of divergence at individual loci affecting the trait (FST) and the variance-scaled within-population (covW0 ) and betweenpopulation (covB0 ) allelic covariance among these loci: QST p FST (1 1 covB0 ) , FST (cov 2 covW0 ) 1 1 1 covW0 0 B (2) PP P where cov 0 p i j covij = i j i2 , which is the covariance among allele effects at locus i and j, scaled by the variance at locus i and evaluated either between populations (covB0 ) or within populations (covW0 ). Whereas LD is based on covariance in allele frequencies, the variances and covariances in this formula also incorporate allele effect size (covij p LDij 4ai aj , where a is the allele effect size; Latta 1998). This is an instantaneous solution that accounts for the relative contributions of allelic variances and covariances, but it does not tell us how such contributions are expected to evolve. Latta (1998, 2003) and Le Corre and Kremer (2003, 2012) showed that as the number of loci increases and the effect size decreases, the importance of FST decreases while that of covB0 increases (holding QST constant). As a result, substantial phenotypic differentiation can occur with only small changes in allele frequency at many loci, which would be difficult to distinguish from FST at neutral loci. This is a natural consequence of dividing a given phenotypic fitness effect among an increasing number of loci: as the per-locus s decreases, allele frequency differences decrease, so FST is smaller and more of the overall variance must be increasingly due to allelic covariances. However, it was not clear from this work whether the contributions of individual loci to divergence were stable over time nor whether the alleles involved were resistant to swamping, even though the differences from neutral FST were slight. Simulation Model To explore the evolution of local adaptation when alleles are prone to swamping, I used a modified version of Nemo (Guillaume and Rougemont 2006) to simulate a scenario with two patches connected by migration (m), similar to that described in Yeaman and Whitlock (2011; source code is available in a .tbz file, available online).1 Each generation, new individuals are drawn and survive with a probability proportional to their fitness until the carrying capacity of the local patch (N ) is reached. Individual fitness is determined by the function w p 1 2 f(jV 2 Zj=2)g , where Z is the individual phenotype, V is the locally optimal phenotype, f is the strength of selection on the phenotype, and g is the curvature of the fitness function. Unless otherwise indicated, the optima are set to V1 p 2 1 and V2 p 1 and g p 1, resulting in linear stabilizing selection, so that an individual that is perfectly adapted to one patch experiences a fitness cost of f in the other patch (a summary of the variables and parameter settings is shown in table 1). To facilitate comparison to single-locus population genetic models, the recombination rate between loci is set to r p 0.5 (so that all loci recombine as if they were physically unlinked) and all loci are diallelic, with mutation effects of either 1a or 2a on the phenotype. Individual phenotypes are determined by the additive effects of all mutations present in their genome, with the total number of diploid loci denoted by ntot. In most cases, simulations are run using a p 0.01 and f p 0.1, which results in a critical migration threshold of m* p 0.0021 when N p 1,000 (from the single-locus prediction of eq. [A1]). While this prediction should approximate the true threshold for subsequent mutations of the same size, due to g p 1, complications arise with multiple loci (Spichtig and Kawecki 2004; see also the appendix), and LD and indirect selection would cause slight deviations. As described above in “The Effect of LD,” statistical LD is expected to have little effect when S ! 0.1, and the effect of f here is analogous to S in a two-locus model. As such, the single-locus prediction for the critical migration threshold (eq. [A1]) should be approximately accurate for multilocus traits given the above assumptions, suggesting that persistent allelic divergence should be prevented by swamping for fa p 0.01; f p 0.1g when m ≫ 0.0021. Because of the assumption of stabilizing selection, the selection coefficients (s) experienced by individual mutations will depend on the genetic background and architecture underlying the trait. In the above case where all Z p 0, then s ∼ fa. When a phenotype is at a local optimum, how- 1. Code that appears in The American Naturalist is provided as a convenience to the readers. It has not necessarily been tested as part of the peer review. This content downloaded from 136.159.49.113 on Tue, 25 Aug 2015 16:54:36 PM All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions Adaptation by Swamping-Prone Alleles Table 1: Description of variables and symbols along with parameter settings used in the simulations, where appropriate Symbol Description N Population size per patch ntot Total number of loci underlying quantitative trait Number of mutations necessary to yield optimal phenotype Recombination rate between loci Mutation effect size Per-locus mutation rate Locally optimal phenotype Strength of phenotypic selection Curvature of fitness function Migration rate Effective migration rate Critical migration threshold Individual phenotype Mean phenotypic divergence between populations Contribution of an individual locus to divergence Within-population genetic variance Within-population phenotypic variance Strength of Gaussian stabilizing selection Total strength of selection (twolocus model) Locus-specific strength of selection (two-locus model) Scaled allelic covariance between populations Scaled allelic covariance within populations nopt r a m V f g m me m* Z D d VG VP q2 S si covB0 covW0 a Parameter settings 500, 1,000, 5,000, 10,000 50, 500, 5,000 S000 diallelic and equal-effect-size assumptions (with some provision for rounding error), but this quantity would have a less simple definition for more realistic distributions of effect size. It is worth noting that the simulations used in Feder et al. (2012a), Flaxman et al. (2013, 2014), and other recent articles assume pure divergent directional selection, while those of Le Corre and Kremer (2003, 2011, 2012) and others assume spatially variable stabilizing selection. FVF/(2a) .5 .01a 1028 to 1023 21/11 .1a 1 .005 ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... Unless otherwise noted. ever, any further mutations with the same sign as the optimum become deleterious. This highlights a critical assumption that arises in modeling quantitative traits: when ntot is small enough that mutations at all loci Pare required to yield the locally fittest phenotype (i.e., 2 i ai ≤ jVj), then all loci will experience only directional selection within each patch. By contrast, when the number of loci is larger than the number of allelesP required to yield a locally optimal phenotype (i.e., when 2 i ai 1 jVj), the fitness effect of an allele depends on its genetic background. This phenomenon is known as genetic redundancy (Goldstein and Holsinger 1992; Nowak 1997)—there are more loci contributing to the phenotype than are needed to achieve the optimum phenotype. The number of loci required to yield a locally optimal phenotype here is simply nopt p jVj=(2a), due to the Results The Effect of Genetic Redundancy When there is no genetic redundancy (nopt p ntot ), the point of transition between low and high multilocus trait divergence is consistent with the predicted critical threshold from a single-locus model (eq. [A1]). When the migration rate and total strength of selection on the phenotype (f) are held constant and only a and ntot are allowed to vary (holding constant the sum of the phenotypic effect size across all mutations, 2antot p jVj), there is high divergence in the mean trait values of the populations (D) when {ntot p 1 and a p 0.5} and very little divergence when {ntot p 50 and a p 0.01} (fig. 1). Individual selection coefficients are weaker with small a, and therefore the critical migration thresholds are lower and, as predicted by equation (A1), little divergence is observed when a falls below the critical threshold for m p 0.005 (fig. 1, dashed gray lines), even though the strength of selection on the phenotype is high. To test whether statistical LD could be contributing to divergence in these cases, these simulations were rerun with only a single locus but the same allele effect sizes. The total phenotypic divergence in the multilocus cases (fig. 1, black line with squares) was indistinguishable from the phenotypic divergence in the single-locus case, after multiplying the singlelocus D by the value of ntot in the corresponding multilocus run (fig. 1, gray triangles). This shows that statistical LD is not significantly altering the maintenance of polymorphism and the potential for swamping. By contrast, when traits are highly genetically redundant, considerable trait divergence can be maintained when swamping is predicted for individual alleles, especially when the trait is highly polygenic. If we hold constant {nopt p 50 and a p 0.01} but increase ntot , considerable divergence can evolve when ntot ≫ nopt and per-locus mutation rates (m) are high (fig. 2A), even though single-locus models predict that these alleles should be prone to swamping. Similar amounts of divergence after 50,000 generations are observed whether the populations were initialized with no genetic variation and no divergence between populations or initialized with individuals optimally adapted to their local environments (appendix, fig. A1A; figs. A1–A5 are available online). This content downloaded from 136.159.49.113 on Tue, 25 Aug 2015 16:54:36 PM All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions S000 The American Naturalist 10 1 10 2 10 3 10 4 n=2 1.0 * for m = 0.005 n=5 0.5 n = 10 n = 20 0.0 0.01 0.1 Critical migration rate (m*) n=1 1.5 n = n 10 = 0 n 75 = n 50 n=4 = 0 30 Divergence in trait means (D) 2.0 0.5 Effect size ( ) Figure 1: Trait divergence increases when alleles are larger than the critical threshold for m p 0.005, shown by gray dashed lines. For the black line and symbols, the effect size (a) and number of loci (n p ntot ) were varied simultaneously, holding constant 2antot. For the gray triangles, simulations were run with a single locus, a was allowed to vary, and the amount of divergence (D) was multiplied by the number of loci used in the multilocus simulations run with the same value of a. In all cases, N p 1,000, m p 0.005, and m p 1025 . How is this stable adaptive phenotypic divergence maintained when swamping is predicted for individual loci? One possible explanation is that the conditions for the maintenance of polymorphism are relaxed when there is enough standing genetic variation that some individuals’ phenotypes overshoot the local optimum, resulting in stabilizing selection, which occurs only when ntot ≫ nopt . If stabilizing selection changes the conditions for the maintenance of polymorphism and this is critical to the establishment of divergence, then we should see little to no divergence until standing variation builds up and a substantial proportion of individuals have phenotypes beyond the local optima (dividing the total phenotypic effect of selection among a larger number of loci seems unlikely to facilitate the maintenance of polymorphism in a way that does not occur with divergent directional selection, but in the absence of appropriate analytical theory it should be considered). In parameter sets where substantial adaptive divergence evolved, there was usually enough standing genetic variation at the end of the simulations that stabilizing selection was occurring (fig. 3A; proportion of individuals with Z 1 jVj). However, by examining the time course of evolution for one parameter set that results in particularly high adaptive divergence and standing variation, it is clear that only pure directional selection was acting during the time when the initial adaptive divergence was evolving (fig. 3B, prior to arrow). Thus, while the transition to sta- bilizing selection likely alters the dynamics underlying the maintenance of polymorphism, it is not a necessary prerequisite for the maintenance of local adaptation when ntot ≫ nopt . Another possible explanation is that statistical LD among locally beneficial alleles is strong enough that they are no longer prone to swamping once sufficient standing variation has accumulated. This type of behavior was observed by Flaxman et al. (2014), where very strong LD (r close to 1) among numerous divergently selected loci caused a rapid transition to high divergence and low effective migration rates (reductions in me of ≫10#). However, in the simulations shown here in fig. 2A, the effective migration rate remains high (never more than a 3% decrease), the LDs are low (typically, r ! 0.05; fig. A2), and there are only transient changes in allele frequency (see below; fig. 4), which all suggest very different dynamics from those operating in the simulations of Flaxman et al. (2014). In addition, as described above the maximum fitness cost to a migrant is bounded by f p 0.1 under the divergent stabilizing regime used here. In population genetic models with divergent directional selection of similar magnitude (S ∼ 0.1), statistical LD has only a limited effect on both the maximum potential reduction in effective migration (Barton and Bengtsson 1986) and the magnitude of changes in the critical migration threshold (Aeschbacher and Bürger 2014). Although there is no corresponding analytical prediction for swamping under divergent stabilizing selection, it seems unlikely that the effect of LD would be greater than that under divergent directional selection. An alternative explanation that seems most consistent with the data is that different alleles are constantly establishing and being lost, so that individual alleles make only fleeting contributions to phenotypic divergence. As long as sufficient genetic variance exists within the population and phenotypic selection is strong relative to migration, phenotypic divergence may stably persist despite constant flux in the underlying architecture. For the additive diallelic loci simulated here, the contribution of a locus to adaptive phenotypic divergence (d ) can be calculated from the frequency of the 1a allele in patch 1 (p1) and patch 2 ( p2), d p ½ap2 2a(12p2 ) 2 ½ap1 2 a(1 2 p1 ) p 2a(p2 2 p1 ), so that P the total divergence in mean phenotypes is then D p 2d. In the highly polygenic simulations, d varies considerably among loci, with many contributions to divergence occurring in the direction opposite the difference in environmental optima (i.e., loci with d ! 0; fig. 4B). Alleles making large contributions to divergence, shown in the tails of the distribution in figure 4B, usually do so for only a few hundred generations, and the architecture of allelic divergence is constantly shifting (fig. 4C; see also fig. A3 for a more detailed plot). High flux in architecture occurs for all the simulations plotted in figure 2A: a bout of This content downloaded from 136.159.49.113 on Tue, 25 Aug 2015 16:54:36 PM All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions Adaptation by Swamping-Prone Alleles Divergence in trait means (D) A 2.0 ntot = 50 ntot = 500 ntot = 5000 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 10 8 10 7 10 6 5 10 10 4 10 3 Per locus mutation rate (µ) Within-population variance (VG) B Homgen, m = 0.5 Hetgen, m = 0.005 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 10 8 10 7 10 6 10 5 10 4 10 3 Per locus mutation rate (µ) Divergence in trait means (D) ntot = 50 1 ntot = 500 ntot = 5000 10 2 10 4 10 6 high divergence for a given allele, where the value of d is in the top 20% of the distribution, lasts less than 300 generations on average (fig. A4). By contrast, for simulations where f p 0.5 and a p 0.1, when selection on individual alleles is strong relative to migration and swamping is not predicted by equation (A1), there are very few loci with d ≪ 0 (fig. 4E; note the log10 scale), and architectures are temporally stable with large positive contributions to divergence that typically last many thousands of generations (fig. 4F). Interestingly, high flux in architecture can also occur when alleles are predicted to be individually resistant to swamping if ntot ≫ nopt and mutation rates are high (fig. 5), a finding also reported by Yeaman and Whitlock (2011; their fig. A2). In this case, there is a dramatic difference in the stability of the genetic architecture underlying divergence with just an order of magnitude of change in the per-locus mutation rate (fig. 5A vs. 5B), which does not occur for less redundant architectures (fig. 5C, 5D). This likely occurs because there are many alleles with equivalent fitness effects when there is high genetic redundancy and a high mutation rate, and these alleles can then replace each other due to drift. Because of the importance of drift, this effect may be most important in smaller or demographically unstable populations. However, it is unclear how migration and selection also contribute to this transience, so further study is required. The Importance of Standing Genetic Variation 0.0 C S000 10 6 10 4 10 2 When all alleles are prone to swamping (as in fig. 4A–4C), standing genetic variance (VG) increases with m and ntot (fig. 2B), and there is a strong and nearly linear relationship between VG and adaptive trait divergence (fig. 2C). Plotting D on this log10 scale reveals large relative differences in the amount of adaptation that occurs at low mutation rates (which are not visible in fig. 2A), even if such adaptation is so limited on an absolute scale as to be undetectable in an experimental context. This relationship between D and VG is consistent with the behavior of quantitative genetic models (eq. [1]), but is VG actually determining the maintenance of D at equilibrium? If so, then understanding the maintenance of local adaptation when alleles are prone to swamping is closely linked to understanding the maintenance of VG. However, because VG and the higher moments of genetic variance can be inflated by migration among diverged 1 Within-population variance (VG) Figure 2: Effect of mutation rate and genetic redundancy on divergence in trait means (A), within-population variance (B), and the relationship between them (C). Black lines and symbols have no re- dundancy (ntot p nopt ), while lines with triangles and lines with circles are moderately and highly redundant, respectively. B shows that homogeneous environments (V1 p 0, V2 p 0; lines) maintained similar amounts of VG as heterogeneous environments (V1 p 21, V2 p 11; symbols). In all cases, N p 1,000 and m p 0.005. This content downloaded from 136.159.49.113 on Tue, 25 Aug 2015 16:54:36 PM All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions S000 Proportion of extreme phenotypes A The American Naturalist 0.5 ntot = 50 ntot = 500 ntot = 5000 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 10 8 10 7 10 6 10 5 10 4 10 3 Divergence in trait means (D) B 1.0 0.10 0.8 0.08 0.6 0.06 0.4 0.04 0.2 0.02 0.0 0.00 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 Proportion of extreme phenotypes Per locus mutation rate (µ) 5000 Time (generations) Figure 3: Proportion of individuals with phenotypes that fall beyond the local optimum (Z 1 jVj), shown at the end of the simulations (A) and in the first 5,000 generations of the simulations run with ntot p 5,000, N p 1,000, and m p 0.00001 (B). The arrow in B indicates the last time step at which there were no individuals with Z 1 jVj. Divergence in trait means is shown in B for reference; all other parameters are as in figure 2A. populations above baseline expectations for mutationselection balance (Slatkin 1978; Turelli and Barton 1994; Lythgoe 1997; Yeaman and Guillaume 2009; Debarre et al. 2015), it is not immediately clear whether increased levels of VG in figure 2B are attributable to mutation alone or are also affected by migration. Rerunning the simulations from figure 2A with a homogeneous environment (V1 p V2 p 0) and high migration (m p 0.5) does not substantially affect levels of VG (fig. 2B), which shows that maintenance of VG under these parameters is mainly driven by mutation, not migration. By contrast, when alleles are resistant to swamping (as in fig. 4D–4F), a much larger amount of VG is maintained in heterogeneous environments relative to homogeneous environments (fig. A5). Migration should inflate VG only when there is substantial allele frequency divergence between populations, so these observations are consistent with theory: swamping-prone alleles exhibit little divergence, and migration therefore has little effect on VG, while the converse is true for simulations with swamping-resistant alleles. Taken together, these results show that adaptive divergence when alleles are prone to swamping depends on VG, which itself depends in part on the supply of mutations, which is greatly increased when traits are highly polygenic and redundant. On the other hand, when alleles are resistant to swamping, considerable D can be maintained with little VG or input from mutation. When traits are highly polygenic, Latta (1998, 2003) and Le Corre and Kremer (2003, 2011, 2012) showed that considerable trait divergence can evolve with limited allelic divergence (FST) at individual loci but high betweenpopulation covariance in allelic effects, represented by covB0 . However, it was not clear from their work whether these results would extend to traits made up of swampingprone alleles and whether the underlying genetic architectures were temporally stable. The results here show that swamping-prone alleles are contributing to divergence primarily through allelic covariances: comparing the results of simulations with ntot p 5,000 and considerable trait divergence to those with ntot p 50 and little trait divergence, both result in similar levels of FST, proportions of polymorphic loci, and expected heterozygosity (fig. 6A, 6B). On the other hand, simulations where high ntot results in high D have much higher between-population allelic covariances (fig. 6C). The relative insensitivity of VG to migration when adaptation is due to swamping-prone alleles (shown in fig. 2B) occurs because there is very limited allelic differentiation between populations, and phenotypic divergence is mainly driven by positive between-population allelic covariances. As a result, migration does not substantially impact allele frequencies or inflate genetic variance within populations. Because the amount of divergence when alleles are prone to swamping depends on VG, predicting the potential for local adaptation in this context becomes a problem of understanding the maintenance of genetic variation. Genetic variance can be greatly impacted by drift, and much less divergence is seen in simulations with smaller population size (fig. A1B), as per Blanquart et al. (2012). While theoretical models of mutation-selection balance generally predict that VG should increase linearly with ntotm (Latter 1960; Bulmer 1972a; Turelli 1984; Bürger et al. 1989), both VG and trait divergence increase more with ntot than with m (e.g., {ntot p 500 and m p 1024 } vs. This content downloaded from 136.159.49.113 on Tue, 25 Aug 2015 16:54:36 PM All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions 500 1.5 1 400 0.5 0 10 20 30 40 50 Time (generations ×1000) Locus 300 0 200 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 100 0 -0.01 0 48000 0.01 2 49000 50000 Time (generations) F 500 1.5 1 Swamping resistant alleles 400 0.5 0 0 10 20 30 40 50 Time (generations ×1000) 300 Locus Divergence in trait means Contribution to divergence (d ) D Number of loci 200 E S000 Swamping prone alleles B C 2 Number of loci A Divergence in trait means Adaptation by Swamping-Prone Alleles 10000 1000 100 100 10 0 0 -0.10 0.00 0.10 0.20 48000 Contribution to divergence (d ) 49000 50000 Time (generations) Figure 4: Comparison between genetic architectures when alleles are prone to swamping (A–C; f p 0.1, a p 0.01) or resistant to swamping (D–F; f p 0.5, a p 0.1). A and D show the divergence in phenotypic trait means over the simulation, with the gray rectangle indicating the last 2,000 generations over which the data for the remaining panels were collected. B and E show the distribution of contributions to divergence (d ) made by individual loci (note the log10 scale in E), with red and blue colorations indicating those loci with larger values of d (cutoffs set as 5a/2 and 5a/4); note that the Y-axis shows the number of loci within each bin of size d sampled over the entire 2,000-generation window shown in C and F. C and F show the values of d from B and E plotted over time at each of the ntot p 500 loci in the simulations; white spaces indicate values of jdj ! a=4. In both simulations, N p 1,000, m p 0.005; in A–C, m p 1024 ; in D–F, m p 1025 . {ntot p 5,000 and m p 1025 }; fig. 2A). This occurs because expected heterozygosity becomes saturated at high mutation rates (fig. 6B), which limits the potential for increases in VG with further increases in mutation. These results suggest that genetic drift plays two main roles in the evolution of local adaptation by swamping-prone alleles: eroding VG and thereby limiting D, and affecting the rate of flux in the alleles that contribute to divergence. It seems likely that different demographics or selection regimes would change the amount of VG maintained under the balance between migration, selection, mutation, and drift, thereby affecting the amount of local adaptation at equilibrium. This content downloaded from 136.159.49.113 on Tue, 25 Aug 2015 16:54:36 PM All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions S000 The American Naturalist µ = 10-4 µ = 10-5 400 400 300 300 Locus B 500 200 200 100 100 0 0 45000 46000 47000 48000 49000 50000 45000 46000 47000 48000 49000 50000 Time (generations) Time (generations) D 50 50 40 30 30 Locus 40 20 20 10 10 0 0 ntot = 50 Locus C 500 ntot = 500 Locus A 45000 46000 47000 48000 49000 50000 45000 46000 47000 48000 49000 50000 Time (generations) Time (generations) Figure 5: Contributions to divergence (d) for traits with swamping-resistant alleles (f p 0.5, a p 0.1). A reproduces the results shown in figure 4F; other panels show results with different values of ntot and m. All other parameters are as in figure 4F. Discussion There is a long history of using population genetic models to study the maintenance of polymorphism under migrationselection balance (Felsenstein 1976; Bürger 2014). In the context of these models, we have come to view local adaptation as being synonymous with large and persistent allelefrequency differences among populations. It is within this paradigm that most current genome-scan studies orient their search for the loci responsible for local adaptation, aiming to detect large frequency differences or associations between genetic variants and environments or traits. However, it has been increasingly acknowledged that local adaptation does not necessarily involve large differences in allele frequency. Important articles by Latta (1998, 2003) and Le Corre and Kremer (2003, 2011, 2012) showed that as the number of loci contributing to a trait increases, the relative contribution of FST at individual loci tends to decrease, while among-population covariances in allele effect size tend to contribute more (with similar results found for clines; Barton 1999). These studies showed that mutations underlying polygenic traits would be difficult to empirically detect by comparison to FST at neutral markers but did not explicitly evaluate whether the individual loci were swamping resistant or whether FST tended to persist for long. Given the low rates of mutation (m p 1025 ) and This content downloaded from 136.159.49.113 on Tue, 25 Aug 2015 16:54:36 PM All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions Adaptation by Swamping-Prone Alleles A 0.05 ntot = 50 ntot = 500 ntot = 5000 0.04 95th percentile mean 0.03 FST 0.02 0.01 0.00 10 8 10 7 10 6 10 5 10 4 10 3 B 0.5 1.0 0.4 0.8 0.3 0.6 0.2 0.4 HS proportion HS 0.1 0.2 0.0 Proportion non-polymorphic loci Per locus mutation rate (µ) 0.0 10 8 10 7 10 6 10 5 10 4 10 3 10 3 Per locus mutation rate (µ) C cov'W cov'B 150 100 cov 50 0 10 8 10 7 10 6 10 5 10 4 Per locus mutation rate (µ) Figure 6: Effect of ntot and m on mean and 95th percentile values of FST (A), expected heterozygosity (HS) and proportion of nonpolymorphic loci (B), and scaled genetic covariances within (covW0 ) and between (cov0B ) populations (C). All other parameters are as in figure 2A. S000 small number of loci (n ! 30) in the simulations of Kremer and Le Corre (2011), it seems likely that the alleles they simulated were resistant to swamping, as little divergence was observed here under similar parameter combinations with swamping-prone alleles (fig. 2A). The results shown here suggest that local adaptation can also occur when the individual alleles underlying a trait are prone to swamping if there is sufficient standing genetic variation. Although we have no exact analytical models of swamping under multilocus stabilizing selection to confirm this, three lines of evidence support the assertion that the alleles simulated here were swamping prone: (1) they are small enough to be swamping prone under a single-locus directional selection regime; (2) the effect of statistical LD on swamping is negligible, justifying the use of single-locus predictions (fig. 1); and (3) divergence occurs prior to the onset of stabilizing selection (fig. 3), suggesting that stabilizing selection itself is not critical for the emergence of local adaptation. This shows that adaptation under migration-selection balance cannot always be predicted by deriving traditional population genetic models for the maintenance of polymorphism and extrapolating to the whole genome. Rather, adaptation in such cases is a quantitative genetic phenomenon that can best be understood in light of the maintenance of variation across all loci and the response to selection that occurs as individuals with fortuitous combinations of alleles are favored. This kind of adaptive response is most pronounced in highly polygenic and genetically redundant traits with relatively high rates of mutation, conditions not generally considered in the studies mentioned above. It seems possible that a population genetic model of adaptation via swampingprone alleles could be made by representing how the pull of weak selection modifies the expected persistence time and allele frequency trajectories of a polymorphism (sojourn time density, as per Aeschbacher and Bürger 2014), which could also be used to calculate per-locus statistics such as FST, cov 0, and QST. Regardless of where the “swamping line” is drawn and how we model adaptation, the simulations here challenge the conception of local adaptation as a clearly defined and stereotyped genetic strategy common to many individuals in the same population. Rather, local adaptation via small alleles can arise from a heterogeneous and temporally fluctuating pool, from which a multitude of equally fit but genetically distinct combinations may be drawn (fig. 4). If there is high genetic redundancy and sufficient standing variation, there can be high turnover in the loci that contribute to divergence even when individual alleles are highly swamping resistant (fig. 5). Taken together with previous theory, this suggests that the pattern of divergence under migration selection can be broadly categorized into three motifs: (I) highly swamping resistant and strongly differen- This content downloaded from 136.159.49.113 on Tue, 25 Aug 2015 16:54:36 PM All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions S000 The American Naturalist tiated, (II) moderately swamping resistant and difficult to distinguish from neutral alleles, and (III) swamping prone and transient (table 2). While the importance of physical and statistical LD was limited in the simulations here, small-effect alleles may commonly evolve by motif I if they are tightly linked to mutations of large effect or by motif II if statistical LD is strong across the whole genome. Where do real examples of local adaptation fall along the continua illustrated in table 2? Over long periods of time, if traits have high genetic redundancy (ntot ≫nopt ), alleles that are larger or more tightly clustered will tend to outcompete and replace smaller alleles (Yeaman and Whitlock 2011; Yeaman 2013), and the repeated establishment of more swamping-resistant alleles (motif I) would likely reduce the proportion of divergence contributed by more weakly selected or swamping-prone alleles (motifs II and III). At the beginning of a bout of local adaptation, there is typically much less scope for linkage to affect local adaptation via increased establishment probability (Feder et al. 2012b; Yeaman 2013), and allele effect size is likely the primary determinant of genetic architecture. In such cases, the balance between migration and selection would determine the minimum effect size likely to make stable contributions (motifs I and II), while alleles smaller than this threshold would contribute only transiently (motif III). The availability of mutations of different size classes (relative to migration) is therefore a critical determinant of the genetic architecture that would evolve. All else being equal, at higher migration rates more alleles would be swamping prone (motif III), but any alleles large enough to resist swamping would be more readily distinguished from neutrally evolving loci (motif I). At low migration rates more alleles would be swamping resistant, but because neutral loci would also be more strongly differentiated it might also be difficult to distinguish locally adapted from neutral loci (motif II) for all but the most strongly selected alleles (motif I). Alleles evolving via motif I or II could also undergo transient fluctuations if mutation rates and genetic redundancy are high, but this may be unlikely, as large-effect mutations are likely rare. Although the simulations explored here are useful for building intuition about how local adaptation evolves, it is difficult to make predictions about whether we should expect to see local adaptation via swamping-prone alleles in empirical contexts. Beyond the sensitivity of simulation results to parameters about which we know little, the very assumptions about evolutionary dynamics represented in these simulations may not accurately represent how genetic variation is maintained. Classical models of mutationselection balance (Latter 1960; Bulmer 1972a; Turelli 1984; Bürger et al. 1989) seem unable to explain observed levels of genetic variation (Barton and Turelli 1989; Johnson and Barton 2005), and because the simulations used here follow similar assumptions, their results should not be considered quantitatively representative of what we should expect to observe in nature. Nonetheless, it is reasonable to expect that traits governed by very few loci are unlikely to harbor high levels of VG and would therefore be unlikely candidates for adaptation via swamping-prone alleles. Conversely, since most quantitative traits have substantial levels of VG (Houle 1992; Falconer and Mackay 1996), local adaptation via swamping-prone alleles may be quite common in highly polygenic traits. While genetic redundancy may not be critical for adaptation via swamping-prone alleles, traits with limited redundancy are necessarily less polygenic and therefore less likely to harbor high levels of VG. Ultimately, empirical data will be required to evaluate whether local adaptation via swamping-prone alleles commonly occurs in nature. It seems most likely to occur when selection acts on metatraits, such as height or body size, that aggregate over the effects of many biochemical pathways. Conversely, this type of adaptation may be less likely to occur in traits with a less complex genetic basis, such as color pattern. Genomic Signatures of Local Adaptation We know that local adaptation is common at the phenotypic level (Hedrick et al. 1976; Hedrick 1986; Linhart and Grant 1996; Hereford 2009) and we are rapidly accumulating evidence about adaptation at the genomic level (reviewed in Mitchell-Olds et al. 2007; Stapley et al. 2010; Feder et al. 2013; Savolainen et al. 2013), but we are still far from a comprehensive understanding of where real Table 2: Three motifs for patterns of divergence in alleles contributing to local adaptation Motif Susceptibility to swamping Divergence pattern I: Strongly differentiated Highly resistant Moderate to high FST II: Weakly differentiated Moderately resistant III: Transient Prone Low to moderate FST, difficult to distinguish from neutral FST Low FST Stability of the genetic basis of divergence High, unless redundancy and mutation rates are high Moderate to high, unless redundancy and mutation rates are high Transient Note: Transitions between these motifs will be gradual with changing migration or strength of selection. These characterizations are intended to facilitate description of predictions in empirical contexts rather than suggest discrete behavior of the underlying dynamics. This content downloaded from 136.159.49.113 on Tue, 25 Aug 2015 16:54:36 PM All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions Adaptation by Swamping-Prone Alleles populations fall within the spectrum of table 2. A nowfrequently-used approach to studying the architecture of local adaptation is to scan the genome for SNPs or genomic regions that have strong statistical associations with a locally adapted phenotype or environmental variable of interest or that have extreme values of FST beyond the patterns in allele frequency due to demography (Storz 2005; Schoville et al. 2012). These approaches have identified signatures consistent with local adaptation in a range of species (e.g., Hohenlohe et al. 2010; Fournier-Level et al. 2011; Soria-Corrasco et al. 2014), but it is not always clear how well they avoid false positives due to the confounding effects of demography (Schoville et al. 2012; Vilas et al. 2012; de Mita et al. 2013; Lotterhos and Whitlock 2014). Furthermore, it has been argued that many examples of clusters of loci with extreme FST may in fact be false positives driven by reductions in heterozygosity within populations due to selective sweeps or background selection rather than migration-selection balance (Cruikshank and Hahn 2014). Beyond the problem of identifying false positives, it is not clear how well such approaches can identify true positives because alleles under relatively weak selection, even when resistant to swamping, will not have large differences in allele frequency compared with putatively neutral markers (Latta 1998; Le Corre and Kremer 2003; Storz 2005). With swamping-prone alleles, these problems are likely to be so severe that it will be very difficult to identify causal loci without also generating a large proportion of false positives. Further simulation studies that explicitly compare patterns at selected versus neutral loci will be required to evaluate the feasibility of applying genome-scan methods to detect a genomic signature of local adaptation via swamping-prone alleles. Even with perfect knowledge of which loci contribute to a given quantitative trait, when traits are highly genetically redundant and divergence is due to swamping-prone alleles, the contributions of individual alleles tend to fluctuate over a few hundred generations (fig. 4C). These fluctuations would likely occur more gradually at larger population sizes and be exacerbated by rapid changes in population size. Fluctuation in architecture is not confined to swampingprone alleles and can occur when alleles are resistant to swamping, which may be relatively rapid if there is sufficient genetic redundancy and a high enough rate of mutation (fig. 5; Yeaman and Whitlock 2011). This flux could result in very different genetic architectures of divergence in pairs of populations spanning similar environmental gradients in different parts of a species range if the pairs of populations are connected by sufficiently low migration rates (i.e., a genetically redundant, postestablishment analogue of the scenario studied by Ralph and Coop [2015]). Thus, while range-wide population genomic studies have greater power to detect signals of parallel adaptation along multiple S000 transects, such parallelism would not even be expected for adaptation via swamping-prone alleles or for traits with high genetic redundancy (given sufficient isolation by distance between transects), reducing the relative power of range-wide studies. An interesting alternative to the locus-by-locus approaches of genome scans has been proposed by Berg and Coop (2014). This approach uses the results of a genomewide association study (GWAS) to estimate genotypic values within populations by taking the frequency-weighted sum of the individual SNP effects on a trait of interest. It is then possible to test whether variance among populations in these estimated genotypic values exceeds background expectations, estimated using putatively neutral markers. This method is therefore effectively a genomic analogue of QST versus FST tests. The genotypic values used in this test are analogous to D here, as they represent the sum of all locus effects (d), and include the effects of both allelic differentiation and covariance. This test may be especially useful for detecting a signature of adaptation via swamping-prone alleles, which tend to contribute to divergence mainly through covariances. However, because the small-effect alleles likely to be prone to swamping are also difficult to detect using GWAS and because of the difficulties of controlling for population structure, this approach might require very large sample sizes and careful design to attain sufficient power (Berg and Coop 2014). At the phenotypic level, when local adaptation is highly polygenic and QST is driven primarily by allelic covariances, migration does not substantially inflate standing genetic variance within populations (fig. 2B). Thus, finding higher genetic variance within populations in regionally heterogeneous environments (Yeaman and Jarvis 2006) or in populations experiencing higher migration might suggest that local adaptation is at least partly due to substantial changes in allele frequency and swamping-resistant alleles. In addition, if sufficiently powered genome scans are unable to detect a strong signature of local adaptation in a given species despite observing phenotypic divergence in a common garden, this is suggestive of the importance of swampingprone alleles. However, such negative evidence is hardly very convincing, and direct positive associations of alleles or covariances with divergence are much more appealing— and hopefully attainable. Future Directions and Technical Considerations While it seems likely that drift will affect the rate of allele turnover in the transient architectures observed here, the effect of migration and selection on this rate of turnover is unclear. Understanding the importance of these factors may lead to qualitative predictions about the likelihood of parallel evolution in architectures on the landscape scale. This content downloaded from 136.159.49.113 on Tue, 25 Aug 2015 16:54:36 PM All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions S000 The American Naturalist In addition, it would be interesting to see whether small genomic rearrangements yielding clustering (as per Yeaman 2013) would evolve for loci with alleles that are typically swamping prone. Given how temporal heterogeneity can favor architectures with very different distributions (Kopp and Hermisson 2009; Matuszewski et al. 2014), it would also be interesting to explore the relative fitness of linked versus unlinked arrangements and of large versus small alleles in the context of spatial plus temporal heterogeneity. Together with previous studies, the results shown here illustrate the critical importance of the details of genetic architecture when using simulations. Specifying directional versus stabilizing selection, effect sizes of alleles relative to migration and rates of mutation will all have important effects on the outcome of simulations. Conclusions High migration rates will prevent small mutations from making persistent contributions to local adaptation and will tend to favor architectures with fewer, larger, and more tightly clustered alleles. However, if swamping-resistant mutations are not available, it is still possible for local adaptation to evolve via small swamping-prone alleles. While this lends further theoretical support to Rockman’s (2012) argument for the importance of small-effect alleles, the general advantage of large alleles in the context of local adaptation still holds. Although local adaptation can evolve by smalleffect alleles, bigger (or more tightly linked) is still better. 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