16. desember 2008
Introduction
Gudni A. Jóhannesson Prof. PhD.
Director General
Orkustofnun, The National Energy Authority of Iceland
Orka og umhverfi: Hvernig skal standa að
orkunýtingarmálum á Íslandi?
Ráðstefna á vegum Landverndar og Hagfræðistofnunar
Háskóla Íslands
20/1 2009 Grand Hotel, Reykjavik
The
Icelandic
example
Iceland has the image of a
country with vast resources of
renewable energy.
The primary sources of the
presently used energy are
the precipitation on the elevated
part of the country and the work
that this water mass can generate
on its journey towards the sea
level and the heat generated by
radioactive processes in the core
of the earth and brought to the
surface by heat conduction, by
flow of magma into the crust and
the interaction of hot magma with
earth and ground water resulting
in what we know as geothermal
processes.
In other countries with less water
and less permeability of the upper
crust such as in Australia we can
have large bodies of hot dry rock
below the ground.
Geothermal map of Iceland. ( Basemap: Geological map of Iceland by Haukur Jóhannesson and Kristján
Sæmundsson 1999. Iceland. 1:1.000.000. Icelandic Institute of Natural History
The volcanic activities in Iceland
provide us with high mountains
that catch the water from the
relatively warm and humid Atlantic
air. The frequent earthquakes
provide fractures and high
permeability in the rock bed
opening up for the interaction
between ground water flow and
hot reservoir remaining from
volcanic activities or magmatic
intrusion into the upper layers of
the crust.
Earthquakes
Enhancing
geothermal energy
Photo: Gudni A. Jóhannesson
16. desember 2008
The energy potentials
The geothermal potential
Magma
210 TWh/a
Energy in rock
0-3 km
27 000 000 TWh
Accessible
6 000 000 TWh
Heat
conduction
53 TWh/a
Under glasiers
59 TWh/a
Vulcanic
61 TWh/a
Geothermal heat
70 TWh/a
Useable
1 000 000 TWh
Heat
conduction
to surface
131 TWh/a
The hydropower potential
Useable
heat flow
59 TWh/a
The efforts that have been made to
estimate the total energy flows
show that the total flow of
geothermal energy up through the
Icelandic crust is about 260 TWh
and theoretically we would be able
to harness about 60 TWh. The
harnessing would also have a
minimum impact on the total flow
of energy from the mantle since
most of the energy is related to
magma flow that is probably not
affected by our anthropogenic
activities.
In that sense we are harnessing a
renewable energy stream even if
our we will affect locally the
thermal properties of the
harnessed areas in space and
time.
The maximum theoretical potential
for hydropower is much better
known since it is simply the
product of the rate of precipitation
and the head towards the sea
level.
The total potential is similar to the total geothermal energy flow or 285 TWh/a. About
100 TWh/a are lost as evaporation into the air, flow to the ground and glacier flow. Of
the more than 60 TWh/a left about 2/3 are considered to be too dispersed to be
harnessable leaving us about 60 TWh/a as the maximum harnessable energy.
Here we could make a note that the groundwater flow plays an important role in as a
carrier of heat in the geothermal processes.
The harnessable energy sources of Iceland are very large if we look at them in
relation to the population of the country and even the size of the country. Our total
potential for electricity generation from hydropower and geothermal has by some
experts been estimated to be up to 50 TWh corresponding to a power capacity of
more than 6 GW. Of this potential about 30 TWh comes from hydropower and 20
GWh comes from geothermal power.
The total potential for hydropower can be assumed to be fairly well known even if
changes in climate can have some impact on the potential.
16. desember 2008
The estimate for geothermal energy however is based on known high temperature
geothermal area and the modes of utilisation used today. Unlike the hydropower
plants the estimate for the potential for a single geothermal area is fairly unsure
since the surveying technology for obvious physical reasons will give us a rather
blurred picture of the geothermal reservoir and its properties.
When we start harnessing the fields the physical response of the reservoir will give
us additional information which can be utilized as a basis for further exploitation.
This fundamental difference in approach between geothermal and hydropower
exploitation has to be taken into account in the planning of the expansion of the
electrical system, especially when large steps have to be taken in the electricity
generation.
The limits of growth of the energy sector
If we assume that heating can mostly be provided by direct geothermal energy the
average need for installed power per capita without electricity intensive industries
would be about 1.5 kW which means that we could provide electricity for a
population of 4 million inhabitants with a normal electricity use.
We have to bear in mind that the figures for harnessable power are based on some
major constraints.
The first is that we will our willingness to preserve areas of high natural or scenic
values will cut of a large part of the total available potential and secondly that we are
limited to exploit only those sources that can be harnessed at a cost which is of the
order of magnitude of 2-3 MUSD per MW.
This is of course highly dependent upon how the market situation for energy on a
global scale will develop. With increased demand and prices other modes of
utilisation and other sources of energy come into the picture.
Research and technology
The Deep Drilling Project
We also have to look into changes
that research and technology can
bring us.
The deep drilling project is an
international cooperation between
institutes, universities and energy
companies and the aim is to drill
deeper and into reservoirs at a
higher temperature than has been
known before.
The utilisation of geothermal fluids
16. desember 2008
at temperatures up to 600 degrees CO will create new potentials and a much more
favourable ratio between the energy harvested and the work or electricity generated.
At the same time we will meet huge challenges, some foreseen and some possibly
not, including difficulties of high temperature operation, highly aggressive chemical
processes and possible environmental impact of the fluid.
In our present utilisation of
geothermal energy we mostly only
use a fraction of the energy. This
can be increased with more
advanced technologies such as the
use of so called Kalina cycle or
the organic Rankin cycles etc.
Furthermore the exploration
technologies for geothermal
energy are improved continuously
and it is believed that we could in
near future locate new high
temperature areas that where
there are no visible geothermal
activities on the surface. This does not only add to our potential but it is also highly
improbable that these areas will be the object of preservation strategies.
The utilisation of offshore geothermal sources could also be considered for future
development.
Geothermal energy at lower temperatures together with effective light sources and
CO2 from the geothermal wells could be used to enhance the photosynthesis and
growth of algae that could be used as food, fodder for animals or bio-fuels or as a
basis for special industrial products.
It can be concluded that the potential for exploration for and the utilisation of
geothermal energy can be improved substantially from the present situation.
Other renewables
Other sources of energy such as
wind, wave, tidal or solar power
are as for now not economically
competitive with hydropower and
geothermal power for large scale
electricity generation even if they
may be feasible locally or for
remote applications.
The cost per installed power can
be similar but the energy produced
16. desember 2008
is only 30-40 % of what it would be for a continuous production.
The energy potential for these sources is however very large and it is therefore
important for us to start developing these options on a limited scale to provide
information on a possible energy future beyond the limits for geothermal power and
hydropower.
The framework program
Master Plan
In 1999 the work on the so called
framework program or master plan
for future power production was
started. The goal of this program
was to create a comprehensive
knowledge basis for the protection
or utilization of areas with special
natural or scenic qualities with an
emphasis on possible sites for
hydro- or geothermal power
generation.
The power plant options were to be analysed and classified based on available
power, economy and the national economical revenue but also on their possible
impact on nature, natural processes, cultural heritage and possible conflicts with the
interests of other stakeholders which benefit from these areas in different ways.
Technically feasible hydroelectric power plants are estimated to number about 70
and technically feasible geothermal power plants between 30 and 40. The
conclusions for phase one, which includes 19 hydropower projects and 24
geothermal plants in 10 geothermal areas, were submitted in the fall of 2003.
In the second phase of the framework program that was commissioned in 2004 the
emphasis is laid on preparing new power plant options and improve the basic data
for options already treated in the first phase and to bring about a total estimate for
most high enthalpy geothermal areas. The program also envisages a need for
improved methodology for evaluation of the impact on areas with natural and scenic
qualities.
The government work plan on sustainable development until 2020 also includes a
special study on small scale hydropower plants.
16. desember 2008
Government policy
Vatnajökull national park
WIKIPEDIA
In the environmental chapter of the
co-operation agreement for the
present government of Iceland it is
stated that a necessary
precondition for a national
consensus on the protection or
utilisation of areas with special
natural qualities is to finalize the
research work on their value as
such and their value for other types
of utilisation than power
generation.
A special attention will be given to the high enthalpy geothermal areas and their
classification from this aspect.
The goal is to finalise the 2nd phase of the framework program before end of year
2009 and that the results will be presented in the form of a bill to the parliament.
In the meantime no new areas will be opened up unless agreed upon by the
parliament. Also some areas defined of high natural qualities by the ministry of
environment and its institutes will be excluded until their future classification has
been confirmed within the framework program.
These are areas like Askja, Brennisteinsfjöll, Hveravellir, Kerlingafjöll, Kverkfjöll and
Torfajökull. The river system of Jökulsá á Fjöllum has been added to the Vatnajökull
national park and the preserved land in Þjórsárver will be extended to include the
wetland areas that are considered to be of high natural value.
Sustainability metrics
Sustainability
Iceland is now taking part on two
major international projects on the
sustainability of power generation.
One of the projects is on
hydropower within the Hydropower
sustainability forum initiated by
IHA the international hydropower
association but with a participation
of experts from NGOs, nongovernmental organisations, such
as WWF, OXFAM and
Transparency International.
16. desember 2008
The aim of the work is to come up
with a protocol for sustainability
assessment of hydropower
facilities. An important element in
this work is to involve possible
stakeholders in the process at a
very early stage and to provide
them with information and
possibilities to react. It is worth
noting that internationally the
major issues of sustainability are
different from the things we mostly
find important.
The ecosystems and biodiversity of the river systems and resettlement of the
indigenous people are issues that we seldom have to deal with for our glacial rivers.
At the same time it is difficult to explain the importance of scenic qualities for the
international experts.
The project on the sustainability of geothermal power is taking place within the IEA
The International Energy Agency, the implementing agreement on geothermal
energy.
Searching for
hydrocarbons
The National energy authority o
announces on the 22th of January
this year opening of the first round
of bids of concessions for
exploring and drilling for
hydrocarbons, oil and gas, in the
so called Dreki area which is
situated about 300 km NE of
Iceland on the Jan Mayen ridge.
Based on the geological history,
study of the geology of eastern Greenland formation and seismic studies it is
considered to be highly probable that hydrocarbons are present in these areas.
The licences will be exploration licenses with duration of up to 12 years, may be
prolonged to a maximum of 16 years. Following a successful exploration a priority
for a production license for up to 30 years will be given. (14) The possible
economical revenue for Iceland will be in form of economical taxation of the profit
from the production and from the services provide to the exploration companies.
16. desember 2008
It can be considered as unlikely
that possible findings of
hydrocarbons in this area will in
any way affect price of
hydrocarbons in Iceland or our
efforts to reduce the use of
hydrocarbons.
Profit and taxes, assuming medium size gas and oil wells in
two fields.
Gas 40 billions m3 is reinjected and pumped oil is 140
billions m3
Tekjur og skattar USD 50/tunnu sviðsmynd 4
Tekjur og skattar USD 80/tunnu sviðsmynd 4
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25000
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Heimild: Fjármálaráðuneytið
The mobile energy sector
– alternative fuels
Fuel Forecast for Iceland
The Alternative Fuel Race
Infrastructure
Recycled carbons
Hydrogen
Batteries
Mobility
Cost efficiency
Hybrids ?
Environmental efficiency
Even if Iceland has a relative high
percentage or more that 80 % of its
total energy use as renewables,
this is relating to a very high use
and the use of hydrocarbons is per
capita higher than in most
countries.
The car park, all communications
transport and fishing is depending
on diesel oil and petrol. An
important task is therefore to look
into possibilities of finding
alternative energy carriers in order
to use energy from renewable
sources for this purpose.
The recent development in battery
technology makes it possible to
run a relatively large part of a
normal car park on electricity. This
would have a rather good efficency
but demands a renewal of the car
park which takes time.
For larger vehicules, machinery and the fishing vessels we would still need some
kind of a fuel to provide the power and the utility range needed. Methane gas from
landfill is available from waste deposits in limited quantities but to go further a
possibility is to use hydrolysis to produce hydrogen from electricity and water.
16. desember 2008
Hydrogen however is difficult to store and therefore the process has been brought
further to combine CO2 with hydrogen in a process to form methanol. The Icelandic
company CRI is now planning a pilot plant to produce methanol using CO2 from
geothermal wells. This methanol can then be mixed with petrol up to some
percentageand used for ordinary cars.
To totally replace the present fuels a more high level fuel such as DME or
Dimethyleter has to be produced in a similar way. DME is a fuel that can be used for
ordinary diesel engine with limited modifications. Icelandic parts together with
Mitsubishi companies are now conducting a feasibility study on a large scale DME
production in Iceland.
The DME production is energy intensive and to cover a large part of our fuel need
we would have to reserve an electrical power capacity of the order of magnitude of 1
GW. The good news is that this production would bind CO2 otherwise released from
the large smelters.
Before the economical crisis we would think that the demand for renewable energy
would be almost unlimited. However we would find it difficult to obtain some diversity
amongst the buyers.
International outlook
Global
electricity
generation
Electricity from renewable energy resources in
2005. Compiled from Tables in 2007 Survey of Energy Resources
(WEC, 2007) *The installed capacity for Biomass is not given in the
WEC 2007 Survey of Energy Resources, but said “In excess of 40 GW” in the text.
The capacity factor is thus uncertain. **Weighted average.
(17) Looking at the energy
production in an international
perspective we can see that the
potential for hydropower and
geothermal energy production is
there but it is limited.In 2004 the
total electricity generation was
17,500 TWh of which 6,000 TWh
were from a carbon free
production including nuclear
power of 2,700 TWh. The
remaining 11,500 TWh were
generated mostly by hydrocarbons.
The other options for electricity production from renewables are there but the
economy is far behind. Assuming that the emphasis on CO2 free production will
remain the only alternatives that can compete with geothermal and hydropower are
so called clean coal (which still can not be seen as a realistic alternative) and nuclear
power.
We also see, in international meetings on energy, the advocates of nuclear power
coming forward with the message that you may not like us but you can not continue
without us.
16. desember 2008
The Geothermal Potential
We know that the electricity
generation in the world from
geothermal sources can probably
be increased 10 times adding 140
GW of electricity generation.
We also know that Icelandic
experts have unique skills and
experience in this field.
Estimated World geothermal electricity
potential with present technology (blue) and with
technology improvement (green). The current installed
capacity is also shown (red)
Final comments
If we assume that the available potential for electricity generation form hydro
and geothermal is 6 GWe a little more than 1/3 of this is already in use.
We should reserve 1 GWe for production of fuels for the mobile energy sector.
We should seriously study the impact of new power generation and new
industries in the present deep recession.
From a system perspective it may be positive to build out hydro- and
geothermal power in parallell.
For the export of expertise and know-how in the energy industry we need a
steady home market.
Research should be aimed at better utilisation of the geothermal energy,
identifying more geothermal areas and preparing for the best energy option
beyond present sources.