Click Here JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH, VOL. 112, D03103, doi:10.1029/2006JD007195, 2007 for Full Article Atmospheric controls on the annual cycle of North African dust Sebastian Engelstaedter1 and Richard Washington1 Received 13 February 2006; revised 10 July 2006; accepted 10 August 2006; published 13 February 2007. [1] Dust emitted from desert regions and transported in the atmosphere has been recognized for its potential to alter the Earth’s climate and environments. Satellite data show that the largest source regions of dust (i.e., hot spots) are located in dry, nonvegetated areas of West Africa and central Chad. Dust emissions from these sources follow a distinct seasonal cycle. Whereas our understanding of processes controlling the dust cycle of the Chad dust source has been improved through recent studies, our understanding of the West African sources is limited because of the remoteness of the sources and lack of surface observations. Using a satellite-derived dust index and reanalysis atmospheric fields, we show that the annual dust cycle at the West African dust hot spots is not related to changes in mean surface wind strength but is linked to small-scale high-wind events. We find that the annual dust cycle correlates well with changes in near-surface convergence associated with the annual north-south movement of the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). Dust emissions in West Africa are highest in June coinciding with the crossing of the convergence zone on its northward bound over the dust hot spots. The increase in convergence leads to enhanced surface gustiness suggesting that dry convection associated with an increase in the occurrence of small-scale high-wind events and vertical velocity are the main processes controlling the annual dust cycle at the West African dust sources. Citation: Engelstaedter, S., and R. Washington (2007), Atmospheric controls on the annual cycle of North African dust, J. Geophys. Res., 112, D03103, doi:10.1029/2006JD007195. 1. Introduction [2] Mineral aerosols from the world’s desert regions have the potential to impact the climate system by altering the Earth’s radiation budget [Alpert et al., 2000; Andreae et al., 2005; Kaufman et al., 2002] by scattering and absorbing incoming solar radiation, absorbing terrestrial radiation and changing the physical properties of clouds, such as brightness, spatial extent, lifetime or their ability to produce rainfall [Levin et al., 1996; Rosenfeld et al., 2001; Wurzler et al., 2000]. The magnitude of the radiative forcing and even the sign (whether the dust forcing will result in a cooling or warming of the Earth’s surface) are highly uncertain with estimates ranging from 0.6 to +0.4 Wm 2 [Ramaswamy et al., 2001]. Possible feedback mechanisms can increase or decrease the radiative forcing effect, although some recent studies suggest the dust has a net cooling effect [Myhre et al., 2003; Perlwitz et al., 2001]. [3] An estimated half of the world’s atmospheric dust originates from the North African deserts with emission estimates ranging from 160– 760 106 tonnes per year [Goudie and Middleton, 2001, and references therein], with a recent study suggesting 1600 106 tonnes per year [Ozer, 2001]. Because dust can travel long distances in the 1 Climate Research Laboratory, Oxford University Centre for the Environment, Oxford, UK. Copyright 2007 by the American Geophysical Union. 0148-0227/07/2006JD007195$09.00 atmosphere, it can affect natural and human environments far away from its source. Dust from North Africa is thought to impact ecosystems off the American coast [Shinn et al., 2000; Walsh and Steidinger, 2001] and in Puerto Rico [Stallard, 2001], may alter biogeochemical cycles in the Amazon Basin [Swap et al., 1992] and the Atlantic Ocean [Jickells et al., 2005; Talbot et al., 1986], and may be a potential threat to human health in the Sahel [Sultan et al., 2005] and North America [Prospero, 1999; Shinn et al., 2003]. The Saharan Air Layer (SAL), an elevated layer of air and mineral Saharan dust between about 500–850 hPa, may also impact the development of tropical cyclones which occur over the tropical Atlantic between 10°N and 20°N by inhibiting their ability to intensify [Dunion and Velden, 2004]. [4] Because of the important role that dust might play in future climate change and its potential to impact the Earth’s ecosystems and natural and human environments, it is important to know where the major dust sources are, how dust concentrations vary in space and time and what controls this variability. Because of advancements in satellite technology, we now have a better understanding of where major dust sources in North Africa are and where the dust is transported within the atmosphere [e.g., Brooks and Legrand, 2000; Chiapello and Moulin, 2002; Israelevich et al., 2002; Middleton and Goudie, 2001; Moulin et al., 1998; Prospero et al., 2002; Washington et al., 2003]. Major dust producing areas in North Africa, as identified by the longterm mean of the satellite derived Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer absorbing Aerosol Index (TOMS AI) D03103 1 of 14 D03103 ENGELSTAEDTER AND WASHINGTON: ANNUAL DUST CYCLE D03103 Figure 1. Long-term mean TOMS AI (10) over Africa north of the equator (filled contours) calculated using data from 1980 – 1992. Long-term mean (1961 –1990) precipitation (black isohyets) is derived from a 0.5° by 0.5° rainfall data set [New et al., 1999]. West African major dust hot spots are indicated as WA1, WA2, and WA3 and the Bodélé Depression in Chad as BOD. [Herman et al., 1997], are a region in central Chad known as the Bodélé Depression (marked as BOD) and a large region in West Africa covering areas of Mauritania, Mali and Algeria (three hot spots marked as WA1, WA2 and WA3) (Figure 1). [5] Both satellite and surface observations show that North African dust emissions follow a distinct seasonal cycle with periods of high dust activity (e.g., western Africa in early summer) and periods that appear almost dust free (e.g., November– December) (Figure 2). Surface observations from meteorological stations, such as visibility (in desert regions dependent on atmospheric dust) and dust event frequency, have also been used to describe the annual dust cycle [Bertrand et al., 1979; Goudie and Middleton, 2001; Hoidale et al., 1977; Littmann, 1991; Middleton, 1986; N’tchayi Mbourou et al., 1997; Ozer, 2001]. However, most meteorological stations are located in the Sahel or on the West African coast and not near the major dust sources in the central Sahara. The controls on the annual dust cycle of the West African sources are not well understood although synoptic systems such as African Easterly Waves, which are most prominent from June to October, have been associated with dust production in summer [Jones et al., 2003, 2004]. To fully explain the observed seasonal dust variability in space and time, however, remains difficult as primary processes and drivers in these regions have not yet been identified. As the most intense dust sources are located in the hyperarid regions of the Sahara where rainfall is very low (<200 mm yr 1, Figure 1), it is likely that the annual dust cycle in these regions is controlled by changes in near-surface winds. In this paper we pose the following research question with a focus on the West African dust sources: Is the surface wind strength the primary control of the annual dust cycle? If not, what other circulation parameters relate more closely to the annual dust cycle? 2. Data and Methods [6] As a measure of amounts of dust in the atmosphere we use the absorbing Aerosol Index (AI) derived from the Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) which flew on the Nimbus 7 satellite taking measurements from November 1978 to May 1993 [Herman et al., 1997]. The instrument allows the detection of absorbing aerosols through the spectral difference between the 340 nm and 380 nm UV channels. An advantage of the TOMS AI product is that it provides information about dust distributions over land and ocean surfaces over a reasonably long period (continuous 13 years record from the Nimbus 7 satellite). [7] Despite the successful application of the TOMS AI in the research of many aspects of dust in the climate system [e.g., Alpert et al., 2000; Barkan et al., 2004; Borbely-Kiss et al., 2004; Chiapello and Moulin, 2002; Israelevich et al., 2002; Prospero et al., 2002; Washington et al., 2003] the data set has some limitations. There is an ongoing debate about how well the TOMS AI is able to capture dust near the surface below about 1.5 km. Herman and Celarier [1997] argue that the method applied to derive the TOMS AI is not able to detect low-level UV-absorbing aerosols near the surface. Torres et al. [2002], however, argue that ‘colored’ aerosols such as mineral dust can be detected 2 of 14 D03103 ENGELSTAEDTER AND WASHINGTON: ANNUAL DUST CYCLE D03103 Figure 2. Mean monthly TOMS AI (10) calculated using data from 1980 – 1992. close to the surface. The potential height bias would underestimate atmospheric dust content in regions with low-level dust transport. The altitude of dust aerosols has an effect on the backscattered radiation, which affects the method used to calculate the TOMS AI (difference between 340 nm and 380 nm UV channels) [see Torres et al., 1998]. Assuming that dust aerosols mix within the boundary layer, the TOMS AI is therefore sensitive to the boundary layer height (BLH) [Mahowald and Dufresne, 2004; Torres et al., 1998]. Mahowald and Dufresne [2004] suggest that the TOMS AI’s sensitivity to the BLH leads to an underestimation of source regions on the edges of deserts (e.g., Sahel) where the BLH is generally lower than in the center of the desert. The TOMS AI is a column integrated measure of the atmospheric dust content and therefore provides information about the horizontal distribution of dust. No information can be inferred from TOMS AI about the vertical distribution of dust in the atmosphere. Because of the overpass cycle of the satellite, measurements are available only once a day at local noon. The TOMS AI product is available globally on a 1.25° longitude by 1° latitude grid. For the analyses in this paper we use daily records of the TOMS AI version 8 from January 1980 to December 1992 available at http://toms.gsfc.nasa.gov. [8] Data on near-surface atmospheric conditions (10 m surface wind speed, 10 m surface wind gusts and nearsurface divergence) are derived from European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) 40 year reanalysis (ERA-40). Surface wind speeds are computed using u and v components. Wind speed and wind gust data are based on ERA-40 Surface/Single Levels. The ERA-40 divergence field consists of 60 vertical levels (sigma levels). To represent near-surface divergence we use data from the lowest (60th) level of the divergence field which, for example, refers to 1012 hPa when the surface pressure is 1015 hPa. All parameters were interpolated to 1.25° 1° grid resolution (resolution of TOMS AI data). Despite ERA40 data being available in 6-hourly time steps (00, 06, 12, and 18 hours), we only use data representing 12 UTC to match the measurements of the Nimbus 7 satellite as closely as possible. At the prime meridian TOMS AI and ERA-40 data match best as both represent local noon. With increasing distance from the prime meridian west and east, the difference between local noon (TOMS AI) and 12 hours UTC (ERA-40) increases. However, over North Africa these differences are likely to be negligibly small as the maximum time difference is just about 3 hours (toward the east). Surface wind gusts are available as 6 hour forecast time steps which means that, in contrast to reanalysis data which are available in 6-hourly time steps, a field for 12 hours is represented by the 6 hour forecast from 6 hours. [9] Standard statistical methods were applied in this study. As we do not necessarily expect linear relationships between the annual cycles of dust and near-surface atmospheric conditions, correlation coefficients were calculated using Spearman rank correlation (rs) [Wilks, 1995]. Correlation coefficients (rs) between the mean annual cycle of daily noon TOMS AI and daily noon values of surface wind speed, near-surface divergence and surface gustiness are calculated by computing two time series each consisting of 365 values corresponding to each day of the year. Every day is averaged over 13 years (1980 – 1992). A simple harmonic regression model is used following Piegorsch and Bailer [2005] to analyze temporal and spatial characteristics of the 3 of 14 ENGELSTAEDTER AND WASHINGTON: ANNUAL DUST CYCLE D03103 D03103 Figure 3. The phase of the annual cycle of the TOMS AI. White areas indicate that the first harmonic is not dominating. The locations of the major dust source are marked. annual cycle of dust over North Africa. The application of the model enables us to calculate the first harmonic phase of the annual dust cycle, a measure of the time of peak dust emissions. 3. Annual Dust Cycle [10] North African dust emission follows a distinct seasonal cycle (Figure 2). In winter (November – February) dust is transported in the northeasterly trade winds from the Saharan desert toward the Gulf of Guinea where the dust mixes with black carbon aerosols from biomass burning resulting in a relatively strong TOMS AI signal near the Guinea coast [Herman et al., 1997]. The most persistent dust hot spot is the Bodélé Depression in central Chad, which is active throughout most of the year and is one of the most intense and persistent dust sources in the world [Barkan et al., 2004; Prospero et al., 2002; Washington et al., 2003; Washington et al., 2006]. Although in the TOMS AI data the Bodélé Depression peaks in May (Figure 2), Washington and Todd [2005] show that, despite some differences between the data sets (TOMS AOT, TOMS AI and dust plume frequency), dust emissions in the Bodélé Depression are strongest at the beginning of the year (January – March) with a secondary peak in October. The offset in the TOMS AI may be explained by the potential height bias described in Section 2. The major control of the annul dust cycle in the Bodélé Depression is a northeasterly low-level jet (LLJ), which is accelerated by the regional orography. By sampling the two most dusty and least dusty January, February, March, and April months between 1979 – 1992 (as represented by TOMS AOT) Washington and Todd [2005] show that in the NCEP reanalysis data the LLJ strengthens by about 3 ms 1 in high-dust months relative to low-dust months. [11] Apart from the Bodélé Depression, significantly less dust production occurs during winter (January – March) in the TOMS AI data (Figure 2). However, low-level dust transport in winter from the Saharan desert toward the northeastern Tropical Atlantic Ocean is evident from satellite imagery (e.g., MODIS) and surface observations of atmospheric dust concentrations at Sal Island (Cape Verde) [Chiapello et al., 1995]. That this is not generally evident in the TOMS AI may be due to the TOMS AI height bias. Toward the summer, dust production in the Western Sahara becomes very active with a peak in intensity in June and July, covering large parts of central Mali, Mauritania and southern Algeria. A local hot spot in eastern Sudan peaks in June. Toward the end of the year dust activity decreases in all parts of North Africa with November representing the time of year with the lowest dust emissions. Some dust activity occurs in the summer in central and northern Algeria (June to August) and in central Libya, Egypt and Sudan (April to August). [12] The monthly progression of dust loading through the annual cycle is qualitatively evident from Figure 2. Next we quantify the phase of the first harmonic of the annual cycle (Figure 3). Two distinct features are evident in the phase of the TOMS AI cycle over North Africa. First, south of 15°N, the phase in aerosol loadings has a south to north gradient, with early February as the peak month at 7°N and June as the peak month at 15°N. This south-north gradient closely matches the seasonal advance of the tropical convection and rainfall (Figure 4) which is associated with the movement of the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). The seasonality of rainfall in the Sahel also controls the occurrence of black carbon from biomass burning which is known to influence the TOMS signal in the dry season 4 of 14 D03103 ENGELSTAEDTER AND WASHINGTON: ANNUAL DUST CYCLE D03103 strengthening of the north easterly) in the transients propagating across North Africa and the Mediterranean. 4. Controls on Annual Cycle of Dust Figure 4. The annual cycle of TOMS AI (10) (filled contours) and rainfall (black isohyets) in mm yr 1 displayed as a function of latitude from 5.5°N to 19.5°N taken at 6.5°W representing a section through the Sahel from the southern Ivory Coast through Mali to the eastern border of Mauritania. TOMS AI values were calculated over 1982 – 1990. Long-term mean (1961– 1990) precipitation (black isohyets) is derived form a 0.5° by 0.5° rainfall data set [New et al., 1999]. The dashed horizontal line marks the latitudinal position of dust source WA1. (November– February). Second, north of 15°N an eastwest orientation of the phase is evident (Figure 3). The phase maximum progresses from a centre over southeast Libya and Egypt near 25°E in May to reach the west coast of Africa between the summer months of early June and late July. Additionally, the phase maximum shifts eastward with the seasons from 25°E (maximum in early June) to the phase maximum of late July along the east coast of Sudan. A similar seasonal pattern has also been reported by Moulin et al. [1998] using Meteosat satellite based retrievals which show that high values of dust optical thickness shift from the eastern to the western Mediterranean Basin in the summer (March – August). The change from N – S to E– W direction in the phasing may point to two different control mechanisms. The N– S directed phase change is clearly controlled by precipitation associated with the ITCZ whereas the E– W directed change is more complex. In part it may relate to the preferred location of ridging (and hence 4.1. Sahel Rainfall [13] In the Sahel, the movement of the ITCZ and associated rainfall pattern are likely related to the magnitude of dust emissions. Emissions are highest in winter when the Sahel is driest (although atmospheric dust mixes with aerosols from biomass burning in this season). From January onward, the ITCZ starts moving north, bringing the monsoon rain to the Sahel and thereby scavenging the atmosphere of aerosols. The advancing rain from the south leads to an increase in soil moisture and vegetation cover in the southern parts of the Sahel thereby reducing dust emission in the Sahel. This results in the development of a distinct southern boundary of aerosols at about 7°N in May which moves north and reaches its most northern position at about 13°N in August before moving south in September (Figure 2). The region north of the monsoon rains, notably central western Africa, becomes active from spring into the early summer peaking in June/July before dust occurrence subsides until the end of the year. [14] The relationship between dust and rainfall in the Sahel is also illustrated in Figure 4 where the annual cycle of rainfall is superimposed on the TOMS AI for a cross section through the Sahel from the dust hot spot WA1 (at 18.5°N and 6.4°W) south to the coast of Ivory Coast (at 5.5°N and 6.4°W). In the south between 5 – 12°N black carbon aerosols from biomass burning mix with dust from the Sahara resulting in higher TOMS AI values mainly in December to January during the driest time of the year. Intensive rainfall in summer (up to 3000 mm yr 1 in August/September) coincides well with low TOMS AI values. Toward the north, the length of the rainy season gets gradually shorter and rain intensity decreases, thereby losing its suppressive influence on dust emissions. African Easterly Waves (AEW) have been associated with the generation and transport of dust in North Africa [Jones et al., 2003, 2004]. The occurrence of AEWs peaks in boreal summer when atmospheric dust in the Sahel is at a minimum and emissions in central Western Sahara are at a maximum. This north-south gradient in dust occurrence might be explained by mesoscale convective systems to the south of the AEW which are associated with precipitation and the reduction in atmospheric dust whereas the northern part of the AEW is almost precipitation free, resulting in no scavenging of atmospheric dust. 4.2. Near-Surface Atmospheric Circulation in Central Sahara 4.2.1. Near-Surface Wind Speed [15] All major dust sources (WA1, WA2, WA3 and BOD) are located between 15–27°N in the hyperarid regions of the Saharan desert where there is little or no vegetation (Figure 1). Given the assumption that erodibility factors that can limit dust emissions (such as the availability of deflatable sediments or vegetations cover) do not change significantly in these regions over the course of the year, dust production is, to a large degree, a function of the surface wind speed. From this perspective, we expect a positive 5 of 14 D03103 ENGELSTAEDTER AND WASHINGTON: ANNUAL DUST CYCLE D03103 Figure 5. Correlation rs between the mean annual cycle of daily noon TOMS AI and daily noon ERA40 10 m surface wind speed. White areas indicate statistically insignificant correlations at the 0.05 level. The locations of the major dust sources are marked. (In the black/white version, negative values are indicated by dotted line contours and positive values are indicated by solid line contours.) correlation between dust and wind speed over the annual cycle so that an increase in surface wind speed enhances dust production. To test this hypothesis, we have calculated the correlation coefficient (rs) between the mean annual cycle of daily noon TOMS AI and mean annual cycle of daily noon surface wind speed as described in section 2 for each grid box (Figure 5). The expected positive correlation between the annual dust cycle and surface wind speed is evident in large areas of Egypt, Libya, Algeria and near the northwestern African coast as well as in a narrow band over the Sahel between about 15 – 17°N (Figure 5). At the location of the major dust sources, however, the relationship is insignificant (e.g., WA3 or BOD). Only the sources WA1 and WA2 show a weak positive correlation. The annual cycle of surface wind speed seems to match the annual cycle of dust but not in the major dust hot spots. In the Sahel the TOMS AI is affected by biomass burning aerosols in the dry season, and therefore the correlation coefficients may not accurately represent the relationship between dust and surface wind speed in this region. It should be noted at this point that the ERA-40 reanalysis data are initialized by observations which, in the mostly uninhabited Saharan desert, are only extremely sparsely distributed. 4.2.2. Near-Surface Divergence [16] In trying to explain the relationship between surface wind speed and dust at the dust hot spots, we examine the seasonal changes in the general circulation over North Africa. In January, northeasterly winds prevail over most parts of North Africa. Convergence with southerly winds from the equator occurs in the ITCZ, in a belt of low wind speed, at about 7°N (Figure 6, top). As the summer advances, the convergence belt moves north until August, when it reaches its most northerly position between 16– 22°N (Figure 6, bottom). It then retreats south until December. All the major dust sources are affected by the crossing of the convergence belt at some time in the annual cycle which raises the question of whether there is a connection between the north-south movement of the convergence maxima and dust emissions. [17] The correlation map of the mean annual cycle of daily noon TOMS AI and the mean annual cycle of the daily noon ERA-40 near-surface divergence (1980– 1992) (calculated as described in section 2) reveals that large areas of North Africa show a negative correlation, so that low values of divergence (corresponding to absolute convergence) are associated with high values of TOMS AI (Figure 7). It is plausible that in regions with strong surface convergence, associated dry convection and increased vertical wind velocity create conditions that favor dust emission and transport into higher altitudes. [18] Next we analyze in more detail the timing of peak dust emissions at the West African dust hot spots in summer in relation to the spatial movement of the near-surface convergence. For each of the three West African dust sources (WA1, WA2 and WA3) a latitudinal section of the TOMS AI was taken between 10 – 30°N at the corresponding longitudes (6.5°W, 4.5°W and 0.5°W, respectively) and contoured against time on the x-axis (Figure 8). [19] At all three West African source regions (WA1, WA2 and WA3) the TOMS AI follows a clear seasonal cycle with a peak in emissions in June (Figure 8). This peak in emissions coincides with the crossing of the convergence 6 of 14 D03103 ENGELSTAEDTER AND WASHINGTON: ANNUAL DUST CYCLE Figure 6. Monthly mean ERA-40 10 m surface wind vectors (1980 –1992) for January (top) and August (bottom). 7 of 14 D03103 D03103 ENGELSTAEDTER AND WASHINGTON: ANNUAL DUST CYCLE D03103 Figure 7. Correlation rs between the mean annual cycle of daily noon TOMS AI and the mean annual cycle of daily noon ERA-40 near-surface convergence. White areas indicate statistically insignificant correlations at the 0.05 level. The locations of the major dust sources are marked. (In the black/white version, negative values are indicated by dotted line contours and positive values are indicated by solid line contours.) belt (Figure 8, solid line in all three panels) on its northward movement over the dust source (Figure 8, dashed line in all three panels). Note that despite the change of latitude from 18.5°N at WA1 to 21.5°N at WA3, this pattern is evident at all three dust sources. This temporal and spatial coincidence suggests that dry deep convection associated with surface convergence plays an important role in dust generation in the West African source regions. However, peak dust emissions are restricted only to the crossing of the convergence belt on its northward advance and not when the convergence zone retreats south about 2– 3 months later. Where rainfall is sufficient to support vegetation, the lack of emissions during the southward advance of the convergence zone can be explained by a reduction in available sediments as a result of increased vegetation cover. Reasons for the lack of symmetry in the hyperarid Sahara are less clear, but may relate to the stronger winds associated with higher spring baroclinicity and the transient eddies which drive the prevailing winds. 4.2.3. Near-Surface Gustiness [20] The analysis of surface winds presented earlier was based on noon wind values. The best associations between dust and circulation in the West African dust hot spots are with the passage of near-surface convergence. Turbulence is likely to be an important characteristic of a boundary layer featuring strong near-surface convergence, and turbulence may relate more closely to dust generation than an instantaneous value of wind. The correlation map of the mean annual cycle of daily noon TOMS AI and the mean annual cycle of daily noon ERA-40 10 m surface wind gusts (calculated as described in section 2) reveals that, with the exception of some regions at the West African coast, in central Chad and central Sudan, the whole Sahara shows a significant positive correlation ranging at the West African dust hot spots form 0.25 (WA3) to 0.625 (WA1 and WA2), suggesting that near-surface turbulence is an important driver of dust emissions (Figure 9). 4.2.4. Composite View of Dust Hot Spots [21] In this section we consider the relationship between dust and the parameters describing the near-surface circulation together at the three West African dust hot spots (Figure 10). The annual cycle of TOMS AI is very similar at all three dust hot spots with lowest values between 0.1 –1.5 in winter (January/December) and highest values between 3.5– 4.0 in summer (June/July). The annual cycle of wind speed at WA1 and WA2 shows high values in winter between 4.5– 5.5 ms 1 when TOMS AI values are lowest. Apart from a coinciding decrease in surface wind speed and TOMS AI between July and September at WA1 and WA2, the annual cycle of wind speed does not match the annual cycle of dust. At WA3 there is a strong mismatch between the annual cycle of wind speed and TOMS AI (Figure 10). The annual cycle of gustiness, however, matches the annual cycle of TOMS AI well at the sources WA1 and WA2. At the source WA3 the relationship is much weaker. At WA1 and WA2 gustiness peaks in the same month (June) as divergence suggesting that convergence and gustiness are linked. At the time of the second peak of convergence (September at WA1 and WA2), which corresponds to the second crossing of the convergence belt over the dust 8 of 14 D03103 ENGELSTAEDTER AND WASHINGTON: ANNUAL DUST CYCLE D03103 Figure 8. TOMS AI (10) (filled contours) and latitudinal position of maximum near-surface convergence (solid line superimposed on filled contours), for Saharan dust hot spots WA1 (top), WA2 (middle), and WA3 (bottom). The latitudinal positions of convergence (solid line superimposed on filled contours) are defined by the maximum ratio between monthly mean ERA-40 10 m surface wind speed and monthly mean noon 10 m surface gustiness between 10– 25°N. The latitudinal position of convergence is calculated using the average between 1.5° and +1.5° of the respective longitudinal position of the dust source. During winter (November– March) the latitudinal position of convergence could not be calculated as at this time of year the position is not very well defined. The horizontal dashed lines superimposed on the TOMS AI contours represent the latitudinal position of the dust sources. source, gustiness is relatively low and wind speed is at its annual minimum. Again, why the crossing of convergence during its southward movement results in such a different behavior of surface wind speed, gustiness, and dust emissions is not clear. Convergence at WA3 does not show a double peak but matches the annual dust cycle well. WA3 is located further north (21.4°N) than WA1 and WA2 (18.5°N and 19.5°N respectively). The two crossings of convergence occur in a shorter time and have probably been smoothed by producing the long-term average. Surface wind speed and gustiness at WA3 show a different pattern compared to WA1 and WA2. 5. Discussion and Summary [22] In this paper we have analyzed the relationship between the annual cycle of dust and the near-surface circulation for the major North African dust sources. We have shown that the annual cycle of dust does not match the annual cycle of surface wind speed but that the agreement with the annual cycle of near-surface convergence and gustiness is strong. Both wind speed and gustiness are measures of wind. In the ERA-40 data set, wind speed variations with scales larger than both the spatial resolution and the time step are assumed to be resolved by the atmospheric model and are represented by the parameter wind speed. The parameter gustiness accounts for wind variability at scales comparable to or lower than the model resolution (ECMWF, Part VII: ECMWF Wave-model documentation, in IFS documentation CY28r1, available at http://www.ecmwf.int/research/ifsdocs/CY28r1/index.html, edited 2004). This difference allows us to draw conclusions about the importance of small-scale wind variability for the generation of dust in desert environments. The timing of peak dust emissions at the West African dust sources coincides with the crossing of near-surface convergence on its northward bound in summer (June) suggesting that dry convection associated with an increase in near-surface turbulence and enhanced vertical wind velocity is the dominant process controlling the annual cycle of dust production in these key regions. [23] Dust is lifted from the ground when surface wind velocity exceeds a certain threshold wind speed. At the West African dust sources, the annual cycle of surface wind gusts is very different from the annual cycle of surface wind speed but relates well to the TOMS AI (except at WA3) whereas wind speed shows no correlation to the TOMS AI (Figure 10). This suggests that gustiness is a more representative parameter for the frequency of surface winds exceeding the threshold wind speed and wind intensity at the sources than mean wind speed. In the ECMWF data, surface gustiness is derived as a function of wind friction velocity (which depends on wind speed, surface roughness, and atmospheric stability) and the magnitude of friction velocity variability. As surface roughness does not change significantly over the year in the dry nonvegetated source 9 of 14 D03103 ENGELSTAEDTER AND WASHINGTON: ANNUAL DUST CYCLE D03103 Figure 9. Correlation rs between the mean annual cycle of daily noon TOMS AI and the mean annual cycle of daily noon ERA-40 10 m surface gustiness. White areas indicate statistically insignificant correlations at the 0.05 level. The locations of the major dust sources are marked. (In the black/white version, negative values are indicated by dotted line contours and positive values by solid line contours.) regions of West Africa, gustiness is likely to be a function of friction velocity variability which seems to increase during summer when convergence reaches the dust sources. In the absence of fine resolution (space and time) wind data, it is difficult to interpret precisely what features result in enhanced gustiness over the key source regions. The agreement we see between gustiness and atmospheric dust suggests that such observationally based studies are worth doing. [24] In June the maximum in surface solar heating moves from the Sahel to the central Sahara establishing dry convection whereas ageostrophic flow from the equator brings moist humid air to the Sahel feeding the wet convection in the ITCZ associated with the monsoon rainfall [Cook, 1997, 1999; Parker et al., 2005; Sultan and Janicot, 2000]. The resultant north-south gradient between the relatively cooler temperatures to the south and the hot Sahara to the north are also responsible for the maintenance of the African Easterly Jet (AEJ) [Burpee, 1972; Cook, 1999; Parker et al., 2005; Thorncroft and Blackburn, 1999]. The intense surface heating in summer is the engine of the dry convection and convergence and thereby indirectly influences dust emission at the West African dust sources. Near-surface convection, if occurring over surfaces that allow the emission of dust, leads to the development of dusty convective plumes and dust devils, phenomena frequently observed in desert regions [e.g., Idso, 1974; McTainsh and Pitblado, 1987; Renno et al., 2004]. The importance of convective processes for dust generation has, however, only recently been recognized by Koch and Renno [2005] who estimate that on a global scale, convec- tive plumes and vortices contribute to about 35% of the global dust budget. Convective processes due to intense surface heating also play an important role in dust generation on Mars [Ferri et al., 2003; Renno et al., 2004]. [25] The data linking interannual dustiness and surface convergence shows a reasonable though not perfect match (Figure 8). Haywood et al. [2005] have shown that specific dust outbreaks in the Sahara can lead to numerical model longwave radiative errors of up to 50 Wm 2. It is reasonable to expect that the intensity and location of surface heating and convergence could be strongly influenced by aerosols. At least part of the reason for the inexact match between the latitude of convergence and dust apparent in some years might lie with the absence of mineral aerosols in the ERA-40 data and hence the poor simulation of the convergence field. From this perspective the agreement in Figure 8 between dustiness and convergence is surprisingly good. [26] The intense surface heating in West Africa in summer is likely to result in an increase in surface turbulence and gustiness as well as in enhanced convection and a deepening of the planetary boundary layer. Mahowald and Dufresne [2004] show that the TOMS AI is sensitive to the height of the boundary layer (see section 2). From this perspective one could argue that the good agreement between peak dust emissions and the crossing of convergence over the dust sources (Figure 8) is not the result of an increase in surface gustiness but the result of the TOMS AI’s sensitivity to the boundary layer height and that the gustiness just occurs contemporaneously with the increase in the boundary layer depth. Figure 11 shows a latitudinal 10 of 14 D03103 ENGELSTAEDTER AND WASHINGTON: ANNUAL DUST CYCLE D03103 Figure 10. Annual cycle of TOMS AI (solid line, all three panels) and ERA-40 10 m surface wind speed (dashed line, top), ERA-40 10 m surface gustiness (dashed line, middle) and ERA-40 near-surface divergence (dashed line, bottom). Monthly mean values for all data sets were calculated over the period 1980 –1992. Note that the right hand scale for divergence (bottom) is reversed. time section of the Infrared Difference Dust Index (IDDI), a dust aerosol product derived from Meteosat brightness temperature measurements [Legrand et al., 2001], taken between 15 – 25°N and averaged between 4 – 7°W (corresponding to a region of peak emissions in IDDI which covers the longitudes of WA1 and WA2). Although the association is not as clear as that found with the TOMS AI (Figure 8), the IDDI peaks in summer when the convergence (solid line superimposed on color contours) is located close to the source (horizontal dashed line). The very similar results derived from the use of a dust aerosol data set independent from the TOMS AI and which does not have a dependency on the boundary layer height, suggests that the good agreement we see in Figure 8 is more likely to result from convective turbulence and related surface gustiness than simply an artifact of boundary layer depth. It remains to be seen whether this relationship holds when other independent satellite derived measurements become long enough to test it. [27] Once dust is suspended in the atmosphere it is transported into higher altitudes by an increased vertical velocity due to dry convection. The evolution of vertical velocity during the monsoon over West Africa shows a significant increase in upward motion at around 20°N in summer due to surface heating and convection [Fontaine et al., 2002]. This way dust can be transported to higher altitudes where it then is transported westward within a fairly stable layer of air above the moist trade winds known as the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) [Carlson and Prospero, 1972; Prospero and Carlson, 1972; Dunion and Velden, 2004]. The SAL forms in boreal summer over North Africa by heated convective air (into which dust gets mixed) up to 6 km high which extends westward in a layer between 1.5 and 4.5 km (600– 800 hPa) characterized by an easterly flow [Carlson and Prospero, 1972]. Petit et al. [2005] 11 of 14 D03103 ENGELSTAEDTER AND WASHINGTON: ANNUAL DUST CYCLE D03103 Figure 11. IDDI (filled contours) and latitudinal position of maximum near-surface convergence (solid line superimposed on filled contours) for the West Saharan dust source region located at about 5.5°W and 21.5°N. The latitudinal position of convergence (solid line superimposed on filled contours) is defined by the maximum ratio between monthly mean ERA-40 10 m surface wind speed and monthly mean noon 10 m surface gustiness between 10 –25°N. The monthly IDDI and the latitudinal position of convergence are calculated using the average between 4– 7°W. During winter (November– March) the latitudinal position of convergence could not be calculated as at this time of year the position is not very well defined. The horizontal dashed line superimposed on the TOMS AI contours represents the latitudinal position of the dust source region. show, using back trajectory analysis from Guadeloupe (Caribbean), that over northern Mali (at about 3°W and 20°N, near dust source WA2) between 14– 15 June 1994 (note that June is the peak month in the West African dust cycle, Figure 2 and Figure 10) dusty air masses were lifted from about 600 m in the boundary layer to about 5000 m. On the basis of the subsidence rates during the further westward transport of the air parcel in the Saharan Air Layer, they conclude that only high-altitude uplift of dust occurring over Africa in summer has the potential to cross the Atlantic and reach the Caribbean. [28] Our results suggest that small-scale atmospheric processes that are likely to be associated with dry convection are important for the emission of dust but they are usually difficult to represent in numerical models. That small-scale circulation processes near the surface have such an influence on dust emission is also an important problem for dust modelers. Offline dust models are used to simulate emission, transport and deposition of dust. These models use prescribed reanalysis winds with resolutions such as 1.125° 1.125° (ECMWF) or 2° 2.5° (NCEP). These mean surface wind fields are averaged over large areas (depending on resolution) and do not account for subgrid-scale circulation such as dust devils or convective dust plumes. Mean wind fields can underestimate peak wind speeds at the surface during dust events by up to 50% compared with observations [Tegen, 2003; Tegen and Miller, 1998]. 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