Impact of Length of Rank Order List on Match Results

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Impact of Length of Rank Order List on
Match Results:
2002-2016 Main Residency Match
The NRMP collects data on the relationship between the average length of the rank order lists (ROL)
of Matched applicants and filled programs vs. the average length of rank order lists of unmatched
applicants and unfilled programs. The data show that matched applicants and filled programs
consistently have longer ROLs than unmatched applicants and unfilled programs.
Program Data1
Over the period for which data are reported, the average number of ranks per position for unfilled
programs is between 37-52% less than that for filled programs.
Year
Filled Programs
Number and %
Filled
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2,747
2,748
2,936
3,005
3,159
3,360
3,410
3,601
3,614
3,660
3,767
4,029
4,041
4,093
4,191
(74.3%)
(74.5%)
(78.7%)
(79.4%)
(81.8%)
(84.1%)
(84.4%)
(87.3%)
(87.3%)
(87.1%)
(85.9%)
(87.9%)
(86.1%)
(86.8%)
(87.2%)
Unfilled Programs
Average Average
Length Ranks per
of ROL Position
54.75
55.04
55.61
55.66
55.85
56.8
57.66
58.94
61.78
63.35
64.27
68.12
68.88
70.72
71.93
9.24
9.32
9.40
9.35
9.74
9.96
10.04
10.52
11.11
11.33
11.52
11.11
11.52
11.64
11.99
Number and %
Unfilled
950
942
796
779
702
635
628
526
528
542
619
555
654
623
613
(25.7%)
(25.5%)
(21.3%)
(20.6%)
(18.2%)
(15.9%)
(15.6%)
(12.7%)
(12.7%)
(12.9%)
(14.1%)
(12.1%)
(13.9%)
(13.2%)
(12.8%)
Average
Length
of ROL
26.94
30.24
27.93
26.63
25.31
25.23
29.5
27.56
27.68
32.51
30.52
27.31
32.42
34.38
36.01
Average
Ranks
per
Position
5.03
4.89
4.85
4.90
4.65
4.97
5.37
5.68
5.64
6.28
6.63
6.56
7.28
7.13
7.54
Applicant Data 2
Year
Matched Applicants
Number and %
Average Length
Matched
of ROLs
17,986 (80.4%)
7.46
18,382 (80.5%)
7.45
18,808 (78.5%)
7.44
19,234 (79.7%)
7.65
19,484 (76.4%)
7.81
20,042 (75.1%)
8.23
20,167 (74.0%)
8.52
20,458 (72.3%)
8.74
20,797 (71.9%)
9.25
21,363 (73.7%)
9.53
21,745 (73.5%)
9.75
24,186 (74.5%)
9.81
24,660 (76.1%)
10.30
24,918 (75.9%)
10.41
25,481 (76.3%)
10.60
Unmatched Applicants
Number and %
Average Length
Unmatched
of ROLs
4.387 (19.6%)
4.14
4,443 (19.5%)
4.46
5,156 (21.5%)
4.40
4,901 (20.3%)
4.48
6,011 (23.6%)
4.51
6,660 (24.9%)
4.64
7,094 (26.0%)
4.32
7,854 (27.7%)
4.46
8,130 (28.1%)
4.50
7,608 (26.3%)
4.38
7,855 (26.5%)
4.69
8,299 (25.5%)
4.58
7,760 (23.9%)
4.71
7,913 (24.1%)
4.78
7,903 (23.7%)
4.66
Matched Applicants
Number and %
Average Length
Matched
of ROLs
12,281 (95.6%)
7.96
12,692 (94.7%)
7.97
12,731 (93.8%)
7.99
12,975 (94.7%)
8.25
13,285 (94.7%)
8.40
13,486 (94.7%)
8.90
13,406 (95.0%)
9.26
13,560 (94.0%)
9.59
13,920 (94.0%)
10.17
14,466 (94.7%)
10.55
14,477 (95.6%)
10.93
15,099 (94.2%)
11.04
15,117 (95.0%)
11.68
15,512 (94.3%)
11.72
15,714 (94.3%)
11.97
Unmatched Applicants
Number and %
Average Length
Matched
of ROLs
587 (4.4%)
4.62
710 (5.3%)
5.02
843 (6.2%)
5.34
726 (5.3%)
5.29
748 (5.3%)
5.26
756 (5.3%)
5.62
699 (5.0%)
5.63
858 (6.0%)
6.27
896 (6.0%)
6.83
817 (5.3%)
6.36
670 (4.4%)
6.52
929 (5.8%)
6.58
796 (5.0%)
6.80
940 (5.7%)
7.15
950 (5.7%)
7.11
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
US Seniors Data 2
Year
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
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U.S. seniors consistently have the highest Match rate and the longest average ROLs. Although there
are small year-to-year variations, about 94% of U.S. seniors match each year.
The data do not take into account a number of other factors that influence the Match rate of applicants
and the fill rate of programs. Those factors include competitiveness of the applicant, competitiveness
of the program, competitiveness of the specialty and number of interviews completed.
Both applicants and programs are well advised to include all acceptable choices on their rank order
lists. A longer ROL in no way affects the chances of being matched to choices higher on the ROL.
1.
Data on programs are based on the number of positions offered. Any programs with one or more
positions unfilled after The Match, regardless of the number of positions filled, is included in the
unfilled program data. Programs that donated unfilled positions to other programs through reversions
are considered unfilled, while data on programs that received reverted positions in the Match are
based on the original quota.
2.
The data are based only on applicants' primary rank order lists and do not include couples.
Updated 04/28/2016
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