Citizens of Serbia between EU,
NATO and Russia
Public opinion survey findings
Belgrade Centre for Security Policy
October 17th, 2012
Basic information on the survey
• The title of research: Citizens of Serbia on Security – Potential for
Violence
• Thematic scope of research:
- perceptions of personal safety and national security
- opinion on security sector institutions
- attitudes towards security integrations
- perception and attitudes towards violence
• Survey designed by: BCSP
• Funded by: the Norwegian Ministry of Defence
• Time and area of research: implemented countrywide (except in
Kosovo) from September 16th till September 24th by CeSID
• Method: face-to-face interviews
17/10/2012
Belgrade Centre for Security Policy
Sample description
•
•
•
•
No=1203
Sex: women (52%), men (48%)
Age: 18-29 (19%); 30-39 (20%); 40-49 (14%); 50-59 (18%); over 60 (29%)
Educational background: no formal education/elementary school (17%),
vocational school (9%), high school (47%), college/university (22%),
pupil/student (5%)
• Occupation: farmer (2%); housewife (9%); unskilled/semi-skilled worker
(6%); skilled/high-skilled worker (17%); technician (11%); pupil/student
(7%); administration officer (7%); expert (12%); unemployed (10%);
pensioner (17%); entrepreneur (2%)
• Ethnic affiliation: Serbs (86%); Hungarians (5%); Bosniaks/Muslims (2%);
other (5%); prefer not to tell (2%)
17/10/2012
Belgrade Centre for Security Policy
The Structure of Presentation
•
•
•
Perception of the national security
external threats
Kosovo
“friends” and “enemies”
The citizens of Serbia and the EU
The citizens of Serbia between Russia and
NATO
• The desirable security option
PERCEPTIONS OF NATIONAL SECURITY
• There is an increase among those who feel that national
security of Serbia is not threatened
• A fifth of citizens, when asked directly, claim Kosovo
independence should be recognised, whereas over half
of the citizens would not give up Kosovo at any cost
• NATO and the policy of the great powers towards Serbia
perceived as the biggest threat to the national security
• The top 3 “friendly countries” are the same as last year:
1. Russia, 2. Greece, 3. China. The main “enemies” are
somewhat different: 1.USA, 2. Germany, 3. Albania.
17/10/2012
Belgrade Centre for Security Policy
Perception of national security
46%
Threatened
45%
21%
2012
No opinion
16%
2011
34%
Not threatened
40%
0
17/10/2012
5
10
15
20
25
30
Belgrade Centre for Security Policy
35
40
45
50
The external threats to national security has changed and every third citizen
(28%) think that NATO alliance and the politics of big powers towards our
country are the biggest external threat to national security.
What endangers the security of Serbia from the outside?
Do not know
NATO, the policy of great powers towards Serbia (USA,
EU etc.)
14%
28%
10%
9%
Other
2%
Aspiration to create "Greater Albania"
2012
12%
1%
Further disintegration of Serbia
2011
29%
0.4%
6%
Aggression
0.3%
Organised crime in the Balkans
0
17/10/2012
59%
18%
13%
10
20
Belgrade Centre for Security Policy
30
40
50
60
70
For you, Kosovo independence poses:
14%
A threat for the national security of the
Republic of Serbia.
38%
12%
A threat for the personal security of
Kosovo Serbs and other non-Albanians
who live there.
It does not pose a threat at all.
Do not know
36%
17/10/2012
Belgrade Centre for Security Policy
When it comes to the independence of Kosovo
and Metohija, the Serbian authorities …
18%
Should not recognise it at any cost
Should recognise it, if this leads to EU
membership
9%
Should recognise Kosovo independence
immediately
11%
17/10/2012
62%
Belgrade Centre for Security Policy
Do not know
Greatest threats vs. best friends of Serbia
The greatest threats
The best friends
43%
41%
USA
25%
Germany
24%
27%
2012
0%
17/10/2012
10%
30%
40%
50%
2011
5%
Italy
20%
2012
9%
12%
Japan
9%
11%
Croatia
21%
21%
China
2011
12%
14%
UK
23%
23%
Greece
7%
Albania
47%
50%
Russia
0%
10%
Belgrade Centre for Security Policy
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
The Citizens of Serbia and the EU
Half of the citizens are still in favour of EU membership, while the number of
euro skeptics has increased by 10% compared to 2011.
The biggest supporters of EU membership are:
• Age: 30-39 and over 60
• Educational background: high school and university education
• Residence: Vojvodina and Central Serbia
• With higher income support is more likely
• The voters of Democratic Party (70%) and the LDP-led “Turnover” coalition (72%)
The biggest opponents are:
• Among young people (aged 18-30) slightly more are against (42%) than for EU membership
(41%)
• The opponents are most frequent in the capital
• 40% of citizens with monthly income from 10,000 to 40,000 dinars and of those with monthly
income over 60,000 dinars is against EU membership
The highest number of the undecided is among citizens aged 40-49, who have no formal or only
elementary school education, live in Belgrade and earn less than 10,000 dinars or 40,000 to
60,000 dinars. Every fifth interviewee belonging to these groups (nearly 20%) is undecided.
17/10/2012
Belgrade Centre for Security Policy
The expected wins and losses of EU
membership
Wins:
• Citizens mostly (44%) expect the security of Serbia would be
increased
• That the danger of the organised crime would be reduced (40%)
• That fight against corruption would be more efficient (44%)
Potential losses:
• There are more citizens who believe they would lose the possibility
to decide on their own fate (41%) than those who do not (35%)
• The number of those who believe Serbia would be impoverished
(34%) is slightly less that the number of those who disagree with
this statement (40%)
17/10/2012
Belgrade Centre for Security Policy
Should Serbia become an EU member?
18%
47%
Yes
No
Do not know
35%
17/10/2012
Belgrade Centre for Security Policy
If Serbia joins EU, it will…
44%
contribute to combating corruption
27%
30%
44%
increase its security
25%
31%
41%
lessen the possibilitz of citizens to decide on their own fate
Agree
35%
Disagree
24%
No opinion
40%
reduce the danger of the organised crime
29%
31%
34%
further impoverish it
41%
26%
0%
17/10/2012
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
Belgrade Centre for Security Policy
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
The best choice for the national security of
Serbia
Military neutrality (security cooperation with everyone)
44%
Closer security cooperation with Russia.
18%
Do not know
18%
Closer security cooperation with the EU
Closer security cooperation with NATO
17/10/2012
16%
4%
Belgrade Centre for Security Policy
The Citizens of Serbia and NATO
• The greatest support for joining NATO comes
from the winners of transition, the voters of “The
Turnover”, members of Hungarian and Bosniak
national minorities as well as the citizens with
particularly high income per household member
• Paying war reparations is the best thing NATO
should do in order to improve its relations with
the citizens of Serbia
• Like in 2011, this year the largest number of
interviewees see NATO as “an instrument in the
hands of the U.S.”
17/10/2012
Belgrade Centre for Security Policy
NATO
Should Serbia become a NATO member?
21%
14%
Yes
No
Do not know
65%
17/10/2012
Belgrade Centre for Security Policy
What is NATO for you?
An instrument in the hands of the United States
38%
Do not know
19%
The protector of rich countries' interests
19%
An organization which has lost its purpose
10%
A defensive alliance
5%
A guarantor of peace
A guarantor of the security of small countries
A pillar of democracy
17/10/2012
5%
2%
1%
Belgrade Centre for Security Policy
NATO
What should NATO do so that the relations between Serbia and the
Alliance are improved?
Pay war reparations
33%
No longer intervene in other countries and restrict its
activities only to the defence of its members.
23%
Do not know
19%
Apologise publicly for the bombing
15%
No longer intervene in other countries without the approval
of the United Nations.
10%
0%
17/10/2012
5%
10%
Belgrade Centre for Security Policy
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
NATO vs. Russia
• NATO is perceived as a bigger threat and joining
the Alliance is expected to pull Serbia into
conflicts and increase the risk of terrorism
• The citizens believe that cooperation with Russia
is more likely to contribute to modernisation of
the Army, help military industry work and export
more and enable better response of the Army in
emergency situations
• The attitudes depend on social-economic
variables
17/10/2012
Belgrade Centre for Security Policy
NATO vs. Russia
NATO
Military relations with Russia
loss of independence
loss of independence
16%
34%
46%
agree
35%
disagree
disagree
no opinion
no opinion
49%
20%
17/10/2012
agree
Belgrade Centre for Security Policy
NATO vs. Russia
NATO
Military relations with Russia
reduce the risk of external
attacks
reduce the risk of external
attacks
25%
41%
agree
37%
39%
disagree
disagree
no opinion
no opinion
34%
24%
17/10/2012
agree
Belgrade Centre for Security Policy
NATO
pull Serbia into conflicts and increase the
risk of terrorism
36%
41%
agree
disagree
no opinion
23%
17/10/2012
Belgrade Centre for Security Policy
NATO vs. Russia
NATO
Military relations with Russia
modernise the Army
modernise the Army
28%
agree
45%
37%
agree
disagree
disagree
no opinion
no opinion
27%
17/10/2012
48%
15%
Belgrade Centre for Security Policy
NATO vs. Russia
NATO
Military relations with Russia
help the military industry
help the military industry
22%
38%
agree
47%
48%
disagree
disagree
no opinion
no opinion
31%
14%
17/10/2012
agree
Belgrade Centre for Security Policy
RUSSIA
provide for a better response of the Serbian armed forces in
emergency situations
41%
47%
agree
disagree
no opinion
12%
17/10/2012
Belgrade Centre for Security Policy
Conclusions
• According to the majority of citizens, military neutrality
is the best foreign policy orientation
• NATO is still perceived as a significant threat to the
national security of Serbia
• The support for joining NATO is low and slowly
decreasing
• Strengthening military cooperation with Russia is
mostly seen as a non-threatening and useful foreign
policy orientation
• Attitudes towards NATO/Russia are significantly
influenced only by party preferences, ethnic affiliation
and income
17/10/2012
Belgrade Centre for Security Policy
Upcoming presentations of new
findings
October 30th, 2012 at 12:00, Media Center Belgrade:
“What are we afraid of, who protects us?“ - how
citizens of Serbia perceive their safety and security as
well as the work of security sector institutions
The end of November: The Potential for Violence
More at www.bezbednost.org
17/10/2012
Belgrade Centre for Security Policy
Belgrade Centre for Security Policy
Gundulicev venac 48,
11000 Belgrade, Serbia
Tel: +381 11 3287 226
E-mail: [email protected]
Contact persons:
Sonja Stojanovic Gajic, director
E-mail: [email protected]
Radomir Cvetkovic, communications officer
E-mail: [email protected]
Katarina Djokic, researcher
E-mail: [email protected]
17/10/2012
Belgrade Centre for Security Policy