The Wise Investor Group
Steep Treasury Yield Curve Spread
A steepening yield curve is generally a strong indicator of rising economic output, the
current spread already discounts a fair amount of economic improvement. It’s the
same message we’ve already seen from equity valuations. But, the lack of recession
warning signals from a yield spread perspective is certainly encouraging. Perhaps
any pullback the market may experience is nothing more than a healthy recalibration
of security prices. Tune in to The Wise Investor Show twice a week as we remain on
the hunt for value investments!
6
640
3
2
320
1
0
160
-1
S&P 500 Index
US 10 yr - 3 mo Treasury Spread
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
1992
1991
1990
1989
1988
1987
1986
1985
1984
-2
1983
80
1982
S&P 500 Index Price Level
4
US 10 yr – 3 mo. Treasury Spread
5
1280
Source: Bloomberg As of 1/24/14
1